Thursday's Tournaments - The Stragglers get Going

The Gophers won, yay!  Lafayette to the Big Dance, yay?  I don't have to write any more of these previews after today, yay!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!



AMERICAN CONFERENCE:
The American plays some ugly basketball.  Well no, not really, but they play a real distinct grind it out, ultra defensive style that's reminiscent of those horrendous Knicks/Magic games from however many years ago.  Cincinnati, Memphis, UCONN, SMU, Temple, and Tulsa are all in the top 72 in defensive efficiency, with three of those teams in the top 24.  Add in a lot of sub 250 tempo rankings and some worse than 150 offensive ratings and you get some offensively challenged games.  I mean, it works, seeing as how UCONN won the title last year and they'll probably get three teams in the NCAA Tournament this year, but it's not exactly aesthetically pleasing.

FAVORITE:  Southern Methodist.  SMU was my sleeper pick to win the National Championship last spring when the early odds came out.  At 33-1 I thought they had the right combination of returning players, new players including a possible super star, and a good coach and system (and there was still the possibility they'd get Myles Turner).  Well they didn't get Turner and that potential superstar signed in China.  Then one newcomer, Justin Martin a double digit scorer from Xavier, left, returning guard and double digit scorer Keith Frazier was bounced for academics, and returning double digit scorer Markus Kennedy was suspended for the first semester (not necessarily in that order).  Despite that mess, the Mustangs finished the year 24-6 and 15-3 in a pretty good American Conference.  This is a really good overall team, ranking 26th in kenpom's ratings.

SLEEPER:  UCONN.  You have to pick UCONN, right?  This just seems like the thing they do, with Shabazz Napier morphing into Kemba Walker and now hopefully (for them) Ryan Boatright morphing into Napier (did I forget a Jeremy Lamb in there?  Maybe).  Doesn't seem likely this year since this version of the Huskies is probably the worst since 2007 team, but you never know witha  guy like Boatright.

THE PICK:  Temple.  I like Temple here because things seem to be coming together.  The Owls have won ten of twelve, including wins over Cincinnati, Memphis, and UCONN and although most of those wins did come against bottom tier teams they won nearly all of them by double digits, and their two losses were to SMU and Tulsa on the road and that Tulsa team was desperate for that win.  Their offense is pretty crappy and they're one of the worst shooting teams in the country, but they make up for that with an extremely stingy defense (8th in DeFF in the country).  They also don't turn it over and hit the offensive boards well so their kind of a garbage team, but in this kind of conference that can work.


BIG SKY:
The Big Sky seems pretty fun.  A nice mix of hippies (Sacramento State, Eastern Washington, Portland State), militia men (Montana, Montana State, North Dakota), and Mormons (Weber State, Southern Utah, Idaho, Idaho State).  They should throw a big mixer for fans of all these teams and just kind of see what happens.  What could go wrong?

FAVORITE:  Montana.  The Grizzlies grabbed the #1 seed thanks to a 14-4 conference record highlighted by 7-1 closing stretch that included a win over their closest competition, Eastern Washington.  The Grizz are highlighted by two First Team All-Big Skyers in Jordan Gregory and Martin Breuning, both of whom scored north of 16 points per game, an offense that's very dependent on the three, and a bad defense that did manage to tighten up during conference play to rank #1 in DeFF in Big Sky play despite bad numbers overall.  Sounds like a fun team (and they lost in double OT against both Cal and Boise State, so they might be ok.  They also gave up 110 points to Davidson).

SLEEPER:  Weber State.  For whatever reason, the Wildcats rise in March.  They have won four Big Sky tournaments since 2007, twice when they weren't the #1 seed, and they have a career record of 6-16 in the big dance which may not sound like much but for a team on this level nationally those six wins feel pretty impressive.  They finished runner-up in the CBI two years ago and followed that up with an NCAA berth and an impressive showing against Arizona last year so they're trending up - provided you ignore their 13-16 record this year, which I am.  Weber State is great great great! (my wife went here one semester, FYI, so I am not rational about them.)  Also they'll need to upset Montana in round 1, so this is probably not my best pick.

THE PICK:  Eastern Washington.  If I decide not to believe that Montana suddenly fixed its defense, and I don't, I need a different pick so why not the Eagles?  They also won 14 conference games, won 23 total games, have a nice shiny win over Indiana, won at Montana earlier, and sport the nation's leading scorer in Tyler Harvey (22.9ppg).  Harvey is one of the rare big-time scorers at a small school who also does it efficiently, ranking #168 in the country in O-rating thanks to dead-eye shooting from three (43%) at a high volume (over 9 attempts per game).  He dropped 25 against the Hoosiers, and had one stretch this season where he hit 26 of 36 threes over four games.  Sound like the kind of guy who could carry a good team to a conference tournament title?


BIG WEST:
The Big West has generally been a solid, underrated conference, and losing their premiere program, Pacific, in 2013 hasn't changed that as the schools (Big West really just means small California schools + Hawaii) have all generally stepped up their game.  UC-Santa Barbara and Long Beach have been good for a while now, but this year they found themselves behind UC-Davis and UC-Irvine, and not because they slipped.  Davis is the #1 three point shooting team in the country and Irvine almost (yes, almost) beat several middle tier big conference foes.  Whoever comes out of here will be a major test for somebody in round 1.

FAVORITE:  UC-Davis.  Davis, who I don't think even because a full D-I school until maybe 10 years ago, coasted to the Big West regular season title with a 14-2 record behind Big West player of the year Corey Hawkins (sweet basketball name here).  Hawkins led the conference in scoring at just north of 20 points per game, and his 49.7% three point shooting was a big reason why the Aggies finished third in the country in effective field goal percentage, but three other bombers hitting better than 40% from three are a big part of that as well.  UC-Davis struggles in a lot of basketball areas, but man can they shoot the hell out of the ball.

SLEEPER:  UC-Santa Barbara.  The Gauchos won this thing in 2010 and 2011 behind Orlando Johnson, who has had some NBA time here and there, but they've been shut out since then and I'm guessing former Saints tight end and current UCSB coach Boo Williams is ready to get back to the Big Dance.  They might not have an Orlando Johnson this year, but they do have two All First Team Big West performers in Michael Bryson (14.1 pts, 4.1 rebs) and Alan Williams (16.8 pts, 11.9 rebs) as well as an honorable mention for John Green (11.0 pts, 4.1 rebs), so there is a lot of talent here (it's also Williams's's's third time making an Big West team).  I remember watching Williams last year, guy is an absolute beast.

THE PICK:  UC-Santa Barbara.  UC-Davis's shooting is super impressive, but I can't trust that to hold up over an entire tournament.  The Gauchos, on the other hand, are loaded with talent and not only do they have Williams on both ends (also led the Big West at 2.0 bpg) but they have a decent defense overall and a more balanced offense.  They also have the Big West Best Hustle Player Award Winner (yes that's a real thing) for the second straight season in guard Zalmico Harmon (6.2 pts, 3.7 assists).  I know what you're wondering and no, he is black.  White guys won the award the previous six seasons, as far back as I could find.


WAC:
Quick, name three teams in the WAC.......Actually I'm not even sure if I could have done it, and as you can see I have a serious college basketball obsession problem.  All the conference realignment that's gone down lately helped some conference's relative strength and weakened others, but it most cases it's either minor or could be temporary or both.  In the WAC's case, however, it was completely nuked.  Back in the day it used to be probably an upper tier mid-major.  Now it's become the home of the dregs with nowhere else to go:  Missouri-Kansas City, Grand Canyon, Texas Pan American, and Chicago State to name a few.  Pretty gross, but at least there's as super clear favorite.

FAVORITE:  New Mexico State.  While everyone else fled the WAC, New Mexico State stuck around and by default is now the power program of the conference.  Not that it's strictly by default - the Aggies have won the last 3 WAC Tournaments and 4 of the last 5.  They haven't won an NCAA Tournament game during that run, but it's still impressive.  Kenpom names 3 of it's Top 5 WAC players as Aggies, and their 13-1 record was a full five games better than second place Grand Canyon and UMKC so yeah, they're  pretty prohibitive favorite.

SLEEPER:  Grand Canyon.  Remember how I mentioned this conference was NMSU and then nobody else?  The Aggies are ranked in the top 140 in offensive efficiency and top 80 in defensive efficiency this year, the only other WAC team to rank in the top 196 in anything is Grand Canyon with a 109th ranked offense.  Of course, they couple that with a defense than ranks #342, which is ridiculous, but that's how little I have to go on when trying to come up with a sleeper.  Could have gone Seattle too since they're the only WAC team to beat New Mexico State.  Whatever.

THE PICK:  New Mexico State.  I said whatever.

SUN BELT:
Conference realignment may have screwed up the WAC, but that wasn't the only conference to see some major changes.  The Sun Belt lost what was most likely it's most premiere program, Western Kentucky, to Conference USA, but this year's regular season winner and top seed, Georgia State, came over in the same realignment carousel from the Colonial.  They've now won two consecutive regular season crowns, so they've slid in for the Hilltoppers without any problem.

FAVORITE:  Georgia State.  Georgia State has been a little bit of a darling among those who pay too much attention to small conference teams (and gamblers) because of their guards.  Each of the last two years they've been able to team up coach's son and offensive dynamo R.J. Hunter (19.7ppg, 3.8apg) and former super recruit and Kentucky and NC State guard Ryan Harrow (20.2ppg, 4.0apg) and they've done some good things.  Last year they steamrolled the Sun Belt to a 17-1 one mark and one of the top offensive in the country, but it all fell apart with an overtime loss in the Sun Belt tournament to Elfrid Payton's Louisiana-Lafayette team.  This year they took a bit of a step back at 15-5 but this is still a really good team who could do some damage, and another team I really hope makes it.

SLEEPER:  Louisiana-Monroe.  The Warhawks finished 14-6 in Sun Belt play, and they really stand out because in a conference full of helter skelter, pressing type teams (the conference has three teams in the Top 25 in adjusted tempo) they play extremely slow (#326 in tempo).  They also cannot be sped up.  They never once surpassed 68 possessions in a non-OT conference game no matter who they played, completely dictating tempo no matter what.  They also play a nice, tough defense.  They cannot score, and more specifically cannot shoot at all, but hey, the can control tempo.  Sometimes that's enough.  They also beat Georgia State just one week ago.

THE PICK:  Georgia State.  We cannot lose another team who could make a mini-run.  Murray State is out and Iona is out, and the majority of the already qualified teams are really not very good.  The Panthers are one of our few low major candidates left who you can say "yeah I could see them in the Sweet 16" and that stuff is really fun.  Go Panthers.




And that's it.  Next thing you know, it's Selection Sunday.  Away we go.

Hola from Los Angeles!

That means "The Angels" in Spanish.  You're welcome.  I've written from LA many, many, many times and I got to say, it's still a weird place.  The people all wear weird hats and everyone has sunglasses and fancy shoes and their clothes look weird.  The hotel bar has like, The Big Bang Theory on instead of the Monday Night Football game, most of the cars cost more than my house, and there's more movie billboards than you could shake a stick at and they're all bigger than my house.  Then when I first got here we went for a light breakfast and I ordered two eggs (over easy) and bacon (NOT extra crispy) and when they brought it out they brought it out with a ramekin of ketchup.  Ketchup.  Why on earth would I need ketchup for that meal?  It's probably some proto-hipster thing that is just on the coast right now and will make its way to the midwest in a year or two.  Weird place, but not in that charming way Portland is weird.

-  I'm not sure how long I'll be with you tonight, it's been a long day.  I had to get up at 5am to head to the airport, followed by a 3.5 hour flight into LAX.  Got to the hotel at 10 (12 your time) and of course my room wasn't ready, which I expected, but they said they'd rush it so I could get in the room before I had to head over to the HQ for meetings because I'm a high roller like that.  After my breakfast which should have been ketchup free I got up to the room for an entire 15 minutes.  Then came 4 hours of meetings.  We did get a 2 hour break after that but I used a good chunk of it walking to the grocery store to get booze for the room (actually grabbed a bottle of wine to go with the beer because I'm classy that way) which was about 6 blocks away in 95 degree heat (and what the fuck LA?  You're supposed to be good for three things:  making movies and tv shows, awesome sushi, and being 80 degrees everyday).

Then came dinner at Pink Taco which was fabulous.  Endless pitchers of margaritas, family style food consisting of some weird avocado salad, some kind of excellent chicken skewers, corn tamales, cheese quesadillas, pork burritos, carne asada tacos, churros, and topped off with a shot of some very good tequila.  I'm still not sure why I did that shot but whatevs.  Also pretty solid cleavage on the waitress.  All in all an A+ meal.  So anyway it's 9:18 out here which means it's 11:18 back there which means I'm sitting at about an 18 hour day right now.  I'll try to cram in a bit more, but only because I love you.

-  College basketball magazines are starting to come out, and of course I didn't wait for the good one (Athlon) or the decent one (Lindy's) but instead grabbed the first one that was available from the Sporting News.  Big mistake.  First thing I did was flip to the Gophers, and what do I find:

Omg Sporting News is stealing my bit! pic.twitter.com/0MiFHXXXlh
— Down with Goldy (@DownwithGoldy) September 10, 2014

And it just gets worse.  Well actually not worse because that's impossible but just bad.  The team previews are terribly written and don't go into any kind of depth.  Then they have this thing where they give you the "difference maker" for each team which is a good idea, but then they name the team's best player nearly every time.  Sure, sometimes it makes sense as Andre Hollins (Austin's bro) and Branden Dawson for MSU are probably their team's best player and both probably will make a huge difference to their team's success depending on how they play.

But for Penn State they have D.J. Newbill.  For Nebraksa is Terran Petteway.  Indiana is Yogi Ferrell.  I mean, you pretty much know what you're going to get here.  The difference maker should be somebody like Ross Travis for PSU (if he can learn to give them another scorer), Tai Webster for Nebraska (they need someone to become a good point guard to make another leap forward), and basically anyone else for Indiana since Ferrell is the only known quantity.  Seriously this probably is really whiny but it just feels like they made no real effort.  And before you say anything I'm allowed to make very little effort since I'm just a poor crappy blogger living in his mom's basement.

-  Also, and I know this kills you since I've called the college basketball champ both of the last two years, but I don't have a call yet.  I was all over the SMU train, and loaded up on them at 33-1 to win the whole thing, and then that son of a bitch Emmanuel Mudiay decides to go play over seas.  What a jerk.  SMU was set up perfectly:  tons of returning talent from a good but not great team, good experience, returning starters in the front and back court, and getting a big time scorer transfer in Justin Martin.  With Mudiay they were getting that big time talent who could put them over the top and carry the team when needed.  But now he's gone and SMU is just another team hoping to make the Sweet 16.

-  I know you've all been waiting to hear what I have to say about the whole Adrian Peterson situation.  Here it is:  just kidding.  Seriously I didn't start this blog a million years ago to talk about icky things that are actually controversial and you have to have real feelings about.  I started it to talk about who sucks and who is awesome.  So that's what I'm going to do instead.

The one guy who has really popped for me this NFL season so far is Le'Veon Bell.  There is no doubt in my mind he's the next great running back in the league.  He's like a new version of LeSean McCoy.  He's got that same elusiveness and quickness with the ball, good speed, and can catch which makes him that much better.  If you're in a fantasy keeper league, go get him.  Do it now.

Also awesome is Gio Bernard (just a step below Bell), Darren Sproles (just thriving in that role), Frank Gore (does this guy ever age?), Carlos Hyde (just biding his time), Matt Ryan (he's back), Philip Rivers (just keeps humming along), Derek Carr (going to be a good one), Calvin Johnson (duh), Dez Bryant (also duh), Andrew Hawkins (haven't actually seen him since he's on the Browns but I hear good things), Brandon Marshall (still unstoppable), Steve Smith (Flacco has complete radar lock), Markus Wheaton (could be a star in a year or two), and Julian Edelman (he's boring, but he's being Wes Welker and doing it quite well).

The people who suck are Matt Cassell (duh, #freeteddy), Brian Quick (no, he's not a thing), James Jones (just no), DeAndre Hopkins (if Andre Johnson would just stop we could see what we have here), all Tennessee WRs (who knows who is good there from week to week?), Dwayne Bowe (it's over), all New York Giants (that offense is so gross), DeMarco Murray (hot start won't last), Chris Ivory (no idea how he has so many yards), Zac Stacy (going to lose that job by week 8), Bernard Pierce (what a terrible back-up plan), Bishop Sankey (when you can't beat out an old Shonn Greene oof), Steven Jackson (just waiting for one of those two donkeys to grab the reins), Tony Romo (should be better for the 20th year in a row), Ryan Tannehill (perhaps that leap isn't coming), Josh McCown (if you didn't see this coming you're stupid), and Jason Witten (is he suddenly too old?)

-  So how about that Big Ten football?  Oof.  If you're the kind of person who follows college football you already know this, but it's been a brutal year for the Big Ten football player guys.  Just this weekend alone Maryland lost to West Virginia, Indiana lost to Bowling Green, Iowa lost to Iowa State, your Gophers got rolled by TCU in a game that wasn't nearly as close as the 23-point margin, and Illinois got crushed by Washington.  The week prior Purdue got beat by Central Michigan, Northwestern was dropped by Northern Illinois, Michigan and Michigan State were non-competitive against Notre Dame and Oregon, and Ohio State got dropped by Virginia Tech.  I'm not a big college football guy, but I know the Big Ten has a terrible reputation in relation to the other major conferences lately, and this ain't helping.

-  I was going to do that fun thing where I look at the NBDL draft this year and laugh at who all got drafted, but it turns out the draft hasn't happened yet.  So instead I looked back and the 2013 draft and I think it's getting worse or something because I've barely heard of any of these guys and I pay way too much attention to college basketball.  Out of the 17 first round picks (what kind of league has 17 teams?) I could only tell you about 8 of the guys without cheating - James Johnson (wake), Quincy Douby (rutgers but hasn't he been out of school for like 5 years? What are the rules of this draft?), Pierre Jackson (baylor), C.J. Aiken (st joe), DeAndre Liggins (kentucky), William Buford (osu), Bo Spencer (nebraska), and Dario Hunt (nevada, not as good as his name sounds).  The second round is even worse.  Ryan Evans (wisconsin) got drafted (not joking), plus two guys with busted knees (Reggie Jackson, miami and Abdul Gaddy, washington who should have been the next circus ball captain), and a guy who couldn't crack the lineup at Arizona in four years (Kevin Parrom) plus a whole mess of guys I've never heard of.

I swear this thing used to be more fun and full of guys where you'd say "yeah, I could see him cracking an NBA rotation."  Now it's a bunch of guys I've barely heard of with no shot and guys like Salim Stoudamire and Ricky Davis (yes that Ricky Davis) are getting drafted and yes I'm serious.  And suddenly it goes from 17 picks per round to 8 picks in the 7th and then 4 picks in the 8th.  This draft makes as much sense as ketchup with eggs and bacon and it's making me cranky and tired.  I'm leaving.

Tuesday Talkers

I know, I know, everybody hates me.  It's been almost two weeks since my last post and I have no excuses.  Sometimes when you don't write you get in the habit of not writing and sometimes that feels good.  But there is an awful lot going on in the sports world, and I have opinions on some of it, so it's time to get back in that saddle and write not very informative, unfunny filler for you to read while you wait for your favorite message board to refresh with new messages.

-  So much NBA going on.  Lebron opts out.  Carmelo opts out.  Love trade speculation.  NBA draft.  It's actually really fun.  I'll try to write this in some kind of coherent narrative, but I make no promises.

To start, I can't believe the Warriors balked at the Love trade because they didn't want to trade Klay Thompson.  I like Thompson, and he's one of the top 2-guards in the league, but a lineup of Curry/Martin/Iguodala/Love/Bogut is a definite contender, more so than what they have now.  On the flip side, I would have been ok with the Wolves getting Thompson as the center piece of a deal.  He's the #2 guy in Golden State, but would have been #1 here and who knows if he would thrive or not, but it's possible.  Plus, assuming Flip is dead set on not bottoming out, a lineup of Rubio/Thompson/Barnes (if they got him too)/Lee/Pekovic could be a playoff team, and you're giving Barnes room to sink or swim rather than be stuck in a logjam at the wing position the Warriors had.  Personally I'd prefer bottoming out and grabbing as many picks as possible, and that's why things are getting more and more interesting.

Lebron opted out of his deal today, and with him and Carmelo both on the market teams are maneuvering like crazy to either clear cap space, build a roster that would look good to either/both of them, or both which means we could see some crazy trades and picks flying around before Thursday's draft.  One good way a team could entice either of them would be to have another Top 10 player on board (or more) and that makes Kevin Love that much more attractive.  Cleveland, or at least the media, seem to think there's a realistic chance Lebron might come home, and they have the pieces to put something together with that first overall pick, Dion Waiters (who by all accounts doesn't get along with Kyrie Irving), and Tristan Thompson.  The Bulls are in the mix as well, offering Tony Snell, Taj Gibson, and the #16 and #19 in the draft.  Plus the Celtics still have one million picks they can throw at the Wolves.  I think I'd prefer the Cavs trade to get the #1, then the Celtics, and then the Bulls.  If they trade with Chicago hopefully they package 2 or 3 of those picks to get closer to the top.

Of course, it all could be for nothing since I think it's mostly likely Lebron and the other two opt out and restructure their deals to reduce the cap number and get at least one more competent player in place.  Most likely that's the plan, but it's curious they didn't announce their opt outs at the same time.  Pay attention, because Dwyane Wade is poised to lose the most money if he opts out, so if he opts in then game on.  Until then I'd assume Lebron's back to the Heat.  Carmelo I'm guessing will be a Bull.

-  Speaking of the NBA draft, let's talk about the NBA draft.  I think your steals are going to be Noah Vonleh (criminally underutilized in college, freak athlete, great post-up game and good perimeter game for his size), Julius Randle (already an NBA ready rebounder with a good enough offensive game that should develop), Adreian Payne (already has the skills to be a stretch 4 and could eventually be an elite defender), Tyler Ennis (might not end up a big time scorer, but should be an excellent point guard for a long time), Cleanthony Early (could step in and start for most teams Day 1), and Jerami Grant (2nd round steal).  Busts look like Dante Exum (top 4 pick?  Please), Aaron Gordon (has absolutely zero skill beyond athleticism), Elfrid Payton (will get abused), Zach LaVine (another athlete light on game skills), Rodney Hood (disappeared way to many times) and Mitch McGary (no clue why anybody would take him first round).

It's hard to say who I'd want the Wolves to end up with since who knows what the roster will look like by time they pick (or after), but I'd go for either of the Michigan State guys at #13.  They could end up with Early and Grant in the 2nd round and that'd make me happy.  Should be a fun draft no matter what goes down.  I might even live blog this bad boy.  That way we have more proof of how stupid I am like when I said Kawhi Leonard would be terrible or when I said Stephen Curry would be terrible or when I said Xavier Henry would be a sleeper or when I said Earl Clark could be a star.

-  Man I enjoy the hell out of the World Cup.  Every four years I completely devour it, convince myself I'm going to become a soccer guy, watch 5 minutes of EPL, and then bail until the next World Cup.  The combination of the best in the World, the nation vs. nation thing, and the gambling make this such a fun time.  This year I also got into a WC pool to make every game more interesting, but I made the mistake of picking Spain to win the whole thing so I'm likely dead.  Sadly, I'm tied for second so far too.  Stupid la roja.  Obviously Brazil and Argentina remain the two big favorites, but I like Belgium to give it a hell of a run.  Don't sleep on Mexico, either, and Colombia's been a buzz saw.

Anyway, I won't pretend to actually know enough about soccer to really analyze that tying goal in the Portugal/USA game, but man, what a gut punch.  I mean, not really because as a Minnesota sports fan I was completely expecting it, but for fans of other sports teams that probably really hurt.  The friends of mine who really know soccer tell me I should be mad at Michael Bradley, so picture me shaking my fist and looking really mad right now.  Maybe swearing a little.

-  I owe one of the longest tenured and consistent readers of this stupid blog an apology - Dawger, I'm sorry.  I'm sorry I doubted Brian Dozier and your opinion of Brian Dozier.   I said he was garbage, you said he was good, and now I am firmly down on the side of good.  You were right, I was wrong.  You're smart, I'm dumb.  You're good looking, I am not attractive.

-  Basketball futures are out for the NCAA Champion, and you may recall that I advised you to take UCONN last year when they were 40-1 and advised taking Louisville two years ago when they were 15-1.  Yeah, I'm good.  This year my first recommendation is a team that offers significant value at 25-1 (I got them at 33-1).  Let's see:

• Significant post season run, albeit not in the NCAA Tournament?  Check.
• Strong regular season results?  Check.
• Nearly every single minute back from last season?  Check.
• Impact freshman coming in with a ranking that suggests he's a program changer?  Check.
• One of the top transfers coming in who will be immediately eligible?  Check.
• Outstanding guard play?  Check.
• Elite level head coach?  Check.

Figure it out?  That's right, the SMU Mustangs.  Take a team that won 27 games, finished third in the conference, beat UCONN twice, made the NIT final and basically has everyone back and add in the nation's top ranked incoming freshman in Emmanuel Mudiay and sharp-shooting transfer wing from Xavier Justin Martin and these team definitely has the pieces.  Plenty of questions such as how Mudiay and incumbent point guard Nic Moore mesh and if they have enough size, but at 25-1 it's a no brainer.

-  Jurassic Park 4:  Jurassic World.  It's real.  God I have such a boner.

-  I'm not going to update Gopher recruiting news or anything because it's still just way too up in the air, but know that there are a lot of balls in motion right now and I think in the last couple of weeks through the next couple weeks the Gophers are getting 5-6 visits (official and unofficial) from guys who I am pretty sure Pitino would take a verbal from immediately if he could get one.  I would really love to snag and early commitment this year.  Like tomorrow.

-  I saw Carlos Gomez was on the cover of Sports Illustrated recently.  Even though it kills me to see him be this good, let me rub a little salt in the womb:

1. Gomez's average of .312 ranks 13th in the majors.
2. Gomez's OBP of .377 ranks 22nd, whilie his SLG of .525 ranks 12th.  
3. That gives him an overall OPS of .902, which ranks 18th.
4. His batting alone gives him 18.2 runs above replacement so far this year, which ranks 14th.
5. He's also fast and a good base runner, which gives him another 1.5, and his defense is superb giving him another 1.7.  After a bunch of other league and position related factors he nets out at 31.7 runs above replacement which translates to 3.4 wins above replacement, which ranks 6th in the majors.
6. Yes, Carlos Gomez has become a tremendous all around player who, according to one metric, is the 6th most valuable in baseball.  
7. After the trade for J.J. Hardy (defensible) and then the trade away of Hardy (completely indefensible) the Twins ended up with half a season of Hardy and 24.2 innings of terrible relief (1.91 WHIP and 5.47 ERA) from Jim Hoey.  Gross.

-  Seriously though, you could make a pretty good team out of ex-Twins - better than usual even:

C - Wilson Ramos (.261/.314/.370)

1B - Justin Morneau (.298/.336/.509 with 12 HRs)

2B - Nick Punto (.230/.331/.294)

3B - Danny Valencia (.236/.291/.333 - ok so this isn't the team's strength)

SS - J.J. Hardy (.294/.321/.373)

OF - Carlos Gomez (.312/.377/.525 with 12 HRs and 11 SBs)

OF - Michael Cuddyer (.317/.366/.500 with 5 HRs)

OF - Torii Hunter (.266/.290/.441 with 9 HRs)

DH - David Ortiz (.255/.354/.478 with 17 HRs)

Ok I'm getting a little tired of looking up all these stats, but your rotation would be Francisco Liriano, Matt Garza, R.A. Dickey, and Kyle Lohse with the fifth starter being Kevin Slowey unless I think of somebody else.  The bullpen would be ok with Joe Nathan as the closer and a whole mess of guys like I know Pat Neshek is kicking ass this year.  Really, I mean, that's a pretty good team. Fill the obvious holes (C, 2b, 3b, fifth starter) with current Twins and make Joe Mauer catch again and you might really have something here.  And it really doesn't matter.

-  I suppose I could live blog this Twins game, but it's already 5-3 in the top of the second which means this things going way past my bedtime.  Adios muchachos.

Gophers 67, Florida State 64

Well they won.  Winning is better than losing, right?  Even in the NIT which forces me and you to watch another game that we barely care about.  They certainly tried to lose, but FSU just wanted the loss more.  Anyway, here are ten things I liked and didn't like.

1.  Joey King was a total spaz.  For someone who was such a big part of the offense in this NIT run to win with him scoring just 3 points is a good thing.  He only played 7 minutes due to foul trouble from the get go and I have no idea what he was doing out there.  With Eliason out the Gopher "bigs" were in such bad shape Oto had to come back and play, yet King's out there jumping around like a little kid up past his bedtime.  Maybe he was trying to hard to be a major factor, but the majority of his fouls were just stupid and caused by hyperactivity and lack of body control.  It was probably the worst game anybody has ever played in the history of basketball.  Probably.

2.  Speaking of Oto, was it all just a lie?  It has to be, right?  Just a month or so ago we were all told Oto had such a serious injury that he had to hang it up for his career, yet here the Gophers are short handed and all of a sudden he's not only playing, but playing 32 minutes.  He mostly looked like a guy who hadn't been playing basketball, but he made due with a hell of an effort and was pretty key for the Gophers - that rebound off a missed FT he grabbed in overtime was 100% pure hustle as he was boxed out by two Seminoles and just forced his way through.  But clearly Pitino told hm he probably wasn't going to get minutes next year and Oto chose to retire rather than transfer, and they concocted this bogus story.  I get it, but it sucks when it blows up like this.  I can never trust anyone ever again.

3.  Florida State did the Gophers a lot of favors.  With Minnesota undermanned and undersized in the paint FSU should have attacked the basket all night.  They grabbed 43% of their misses and were clearly better and bigger, but for some reason the majority of the night they were content to shoot perimeter jumpers, going 1-9 in the first half from three and then still doing it, going 3-9 in the second half and overtime.  When they made their big run to take the lead as the game was winding down they did it by pounding the ball inside, mainly to Okaro White, and it worked (helped by a Gophers shooting slump).  I have no idea why this wasn't the game plan consistently, especially when everyone on the Gophers ended up with foul trouble.  I assume it's because Florida State is a dumb team, year after year.

4.  Speaking of FSU, their defense was really horrible.  It's surprising because Leonard Hamilton almost always has his Seminole teams as top defensive squads and their size, but the Gopher guards had their way with FSU driving to the paint last night.  Fifty-one of the teams 67 points came from their guards, which shouldn't be surprising given the team make-up I guess, but Austin Hollins was as driving machine all night and Dre Hollins and Dre Mathieu were able to waltz in for easy layups on back to back plays near the end of regulation. With Florida State's size and shot blocking (23rd in the country by percentages) two little guys like that shouldn't be able to get to the rim, but they did it consistently either scoring or finding others for open looks.  FSU also turned the ball over a ton, but enough about FSU.  They done.

5.  The A topic on twitter last night was the horrible announcing team.  And they weren't wrong.  Bobby Knight was terrible.  Long stretches with no talking, rambling Abe Simpson like stories about wearing an onion on his belt (it was the style at the time) and his old teams and players, harping on the same points over and over, and asking his colleagues questions about the game he was allegedly watching.  I usually like Knight as an announcer and I'm not going to make the obvious joke about him being drunk and/or senile because it was pretty clear he was just completely bored with the game.  Even as it got towards the end and was supposedly getting pretty exciting he was still droning on about some dude from his 1978 team or something.  He clearly has no interest in the NIT, and honestly I can't even blame him.  Even I just wanted that game to hurry up and end.

6.  The court was left alone, unlike NCAA games.  You remember how back in the day the host schools court for the NCAA Tournament basically looked the way the court always looked?  Maybe they'd change a logo or two but it was basically the same?  And now how they white wash all courts to look identical, so if you're watching a game in Orlando and switch to a game in Anaheim it looks exactly the same except the location name is on the baseline?  I was afraid they'd do something similar to MSG, but luckily they left it alone other than replacing any Knicks stuff with NIT stuff.  Maybe it was apathy because it's the NIT, I don't know but I liked it.  I'm actually now realizing I didn't notice if they changed it for the Sweet 16/Elite 8 games.  This would be a way better point if I remembered to notice.

7.  Malik Smith is broken.  It's to the point where I'm actually feeling bad for him since this is the way his career is ending.   He missed three of his four free throw attempts including two with eight seconds left and the Gophers up 3 so one make wins the game, and all four of his three-point attempts which drops him to two makes in his last 34 attempts and a line of 8-58 since he exploded against Nebraska.  Did that game wreck him?  It shouldn't considering he had a few games like that in his FIU days, but the results since are pretty remarkable.  If you watch him his fundamentals are all over the place now too - he's not even squaring up to shoot a lot of the time.  It would be nice for him to have a good game to close out his career against SMU, but at this point I think you have to hope for just a non-shitty game.

8.  The Gophers did a really nice job of shutting down Aaron Thomas.  Thomas played 36 minutes before fouling out and managed just 3 points on 1-8 shooting.  Thomas led the team in scoring this year at 14.1 per, hit double figures in 16 straight games and 27 of their last 30, and had been over 20 points in each of their NIT victories before the Gophers stopped him.  This is where I'd write about how they did it but I forgot to pay attention to it and by the time I realized they had completely stymied him he was in the process of fouling out.  I'm a really good blogger.

9.  Dre Hollins looked a lot better.  His shot is still iffy, but he seemed much more lively to me and was attacking the rim more like he did prior to his injury, and his defense was a lot better too.  He's had 2 steals in three of four NIT games, and prior to that the last time he had more than 1 was the Ohio State, two games prior to getting hurt.  He's also had 7 and 4 assists the last two games with the last time he had more than 3 the Purdue game in Minneapolis on January 5th.  I was of the opinion that shutting him down for the NIT and making sure he's healthy for next season might have made some sense, but everything seems to be coming up Milhouse so party on.

10.  So now the Gophers have a chance at a Championship.  And what do you hear over and over?  "Making a deep run in the NIT is a springboard to success the following season."  Is this true?  I don't know, let's look.

NIT CHAMPIONS (next season results):

2013:  Baylor (sweet 16) over Iowa (First Four)
2012:  Stanford (missed tournament) over Minnesota (second round)
2011:  Wichita State (first round) over Alabama (first round)
2010:  Dayton (missed tournament) over North Carolina (elite 8)
2009:  Penn State (missed tournament) over Baylor (elite 8)

That's the last five years which is all the effort I'm going to put into this.  Seven of the 10 teams made the NCAA Tournament the following year with four of those recording a victory.  I'm going to say that making the NIT Championship is a decent indicator of a team that makes the NCAA Tournament the following season but that's about it - and I'll take it.  With only two seniors departing from this team they fit the profile.  Maybe next year is the year I will finally see LOCK:  Minnesota in ESPN's Bubble Watch.  Still waiting.

Up next is SMU, a really good team who probably should have made the NCAA Tournament.  I might preview it if I feel like it later.  No promises.

Monday Musings

A lot has happened recently.  I am writing about some of it.

-  Josh Perkins, #25 player in the class of 2014 and one of the top point guards committed to Gonzaga on Saturday.  This is meaningful because his final 3 were Gonzaga, UCLA, and the Gophers, even if the Gophers were a long shot given that he hadn't visited Minnesota in over a year.  Although the Gophers still remain in the running for many top 100 type recruits and others and are on a few Top 5 type lists, with each player that commits elsewhere you can feel Gopher fans' collective butthole pucker just a little bit tighter.

See, that's the thing about taking a gamble such as hiring a 31-year-old head coach with only 1 year of head coaching experience at a mid-major, it only ends up being a good gamble if it works out.  As much as it has been awesome seeing the Gophers pop up in a bunch of conversations with stud recruits, it's all for naught if the team ends up with nothing but a bunch of plan C fallback types it's going to add a lot of fuel to the fire that this was a bad hire for a Big Ten school, even if I don't believe that to be the case and I'm pretty sure all those people are either really old or really dumb (Dawger hi!) or big fat assholes.

I also don't think losing out on Josh Perkins is any reason to panic either, because the Gophers were pretty unlikely to get him anyway.  At this point a class of J.P. Macura, Lourawls Nairn, Wade Baldwin, Isaiah Whitehead or Rashad Vaughn, and Reid Travis, Paul White, or Josh Martin is both realistic and one of the best classes in Gopher history.  There are plenty of back-up options still out there that I'd be happy with as well.  Really, we're nowhere near time to panic.  Although as a lifelong Gopher fan I completely understand the impulse.  Really, I do.  I'm actually typing this while hiding under my bed. 

-  Speaking of Nairn, he's going to be on campus this weekend for an official visit, one of only three he's planning on taking (the other two are to Oklahoma and Indiana).  He'll be attending the big Gopher/UNLV football game along with two other recruits, 2014's J.P. Macura and 2015's Alex Illikainen so needless to say, it's a pretty big football game for Gopher hoops.  Not to mention that with Rashad Vaughn transferring to Findlay Prep in Nevada for his senior year UNLV has wormed their way into his Top 11 so there's a very real possibility that the winner of this game will vault to the lead for Vaughn's services.  Is it likely?  No.  It's a near certainty. 

-  In other commitment news class of 2014 point guard Emmanuel Mudiay committed to Southern Methodist over the weekend.  This is significant for many reasons, but the main one is that the #2 PG and #5 overall player in the class (according to ESPN) will be attending SMU which is not Kansas or Duke or Kentucky.  SMU is his home school in Dallas, and no doubt that had a ton to do with it, as did the fact that the coach is Hall of Famer Larry Brown, but this is absolutely huge.  Not only is SMU about to have the best player in their history (I assume) but with Mudiay on board this early he can start working on other big-time recruits and sell them on Brown, SMU, and Dallas.  Now, no matter how fast the program rises Brown will get bored and bail in no more than 3 years because that's what he always does, but the next few years just got pretty interesting.  Tyus could do the same thing for the Gophers, but unfortunately I'm fairly certain that ship has sailed to Duketown.

-  I took Wonderbaby^TM, who is five years old now by the way, to see the movie Turbo over the weekend and I was pleasantly surprised.  Any time you can work in House of Pain's Jump Around, We are the Champions, Snoop Dogg, Eye of the Tiger, and an homage to Bad News Bears in Breaking Training you're generally looking at a winner.  Even if it was kind of stupid.  Because snails can't talk, you see.

-  Remember all that excitement about seeing some young Twins' prospects hit the major league level?  Ok maybe not excitement but it something more than boredom.  Interest, maybe?  Anyway, how horribly has that worked out?  Aaron Hicks - demoted twice, hitting .176 at Rochester and now on the DL.  Kyle Gibson - good debut, horrible since, no command whatsoever, and now back at AAA.  Only Oswaldo Arcia could be considered a success among the rookies mainly due to his young age (22) and his bat (6th in the AL among rookies in batting WAR), although his fielding has been such a disaster he's technically actually been worse than replacement level.  Chris Parmelee probably proved he's a AAAA guy once and for all, Vance Worley and Scott Diamond were disasters, Liam Hendriks was Liam Hendriks, and Cole De Vries disappeared.  You could get a little bit excited about Sam Deduno if you want, but really only because there's nothing else to grab onto here.  It's 2am at the bar, nobody better panned out, and suddenly taking Sam Deduno home is starting to look attractive.  I guess what I'm trying to say is that the Twins are drunk.

- It seems with E.J. Manuel hurt and Kevin Kolb's career possibly over there is the very real possibility that the Buffalo Bills will start undrafted free agent QB Jeff Tuel in Week 1 vs. New England (over Matt Leinart, which is in and of itself hilarious).  Tuel went to Washington State where he must not have been too shitty.  The real issue is for those in survivor leagues.  I have always made it a hard and fast rule to never take a road team in those, but with no real clear cut home team to pick the Patriots on the road against Tuel is really tempting.  Sometimes breaking the rules is exciting.

-  I just started watching Breaking Bad (I know, I know).  It's really freaking good.  Turns out sometimes the masses are actually correct.  I'm only 4 episodes in, but it's good to see Walt see the error of his ways and give up the drug trade.  I'm interested to see where the show goes from here with the drug angle eliminated.  Must be something pretty awesome, considering how much everybody loves the show.

-  Yesterday was my 13th Anniversary with Mrs. W (yes, we got married pretty young).  She's still hot, and she's still awesome.  Pretty cool.

-  I'm weirdly excited about college football, more than I ever have been before despite knowing almost nothing about it, to a shameful level.  All I really know is that the games are fun to gamble on, the player props are super fun to gamble on, the games are fun to watch before college basketball starts, and I'm rooting my ass off for Florida this year.  Why Florida you ask?  Good question.

Last year, probably February sometime, I was perusing one of the gambling sites I used and saw Florida at 20/1 to win the National Championship.  This was when the Gators were rolling and ranked in the top 5 and I was like whoa, 20/1 those are great odds!  Let me throw $50 down on that and we're goin' Sizzla!  A week or so later I go to look at what all bets I have pending and I notice that I accidentally bet on the Gators to win the FOOTBALL National Championship.  I don't even know if they're good, but they're in the SEC so as long as they can lose only once or less they should be in ok shape.  Also yes I was drinking that night.

-  Finally, this:

Also, this Skylar broad is kind of a buzzkill.

NCAA Basketball Preview: C-USA

 So what's the deal now?  Conference USA is merging with The Mountain West, but only for football or something like that?  Seriously, I can't keep all this crap straight.  Too hard.  I need a flow chart or a Venn diagram or just someone to come sit with me for 20 minutes and explain what's going on.

I guess it doesn't really matter though because that's football and everybody knows basketball is way more important, and I don't think that merger or whatever touches hoops in any way, so C-USA is safe.  Well, kind of safe, as long as you don't count Houston and UCF going to the Big East (I think UCF is part of that, right?), and I don't know if that's like, just football or what.  I think it's a full on move.

Oh never mind.  Let's just get to the boring previews.

1.  MEMPHIS TIGERS.  After a couple of meh seasons, at least by Memphis standards, the Tigers are most definitely back and despite what's looking like and "up" version of C-USA this year it wouldn't be stunning to see them run the table in conference play.  They lose only one contributor from last year's team, which means at this point the team is loaded with ten guys on the roster who were Rivals Top 150s when they came to college.  Actually, with seven players who averaged between 6.6 and 12.3 points per game back from last season (and nobody over that 12.3) this reminds me a lot of those Calipari teams where they were just loaded with super athletic, super talented, interchangeable parts.  Good thing for those who hate Memphis that Pastner is looking like he's on the same "game coach" level as Calipari.

2.  CENTRAL FLORIDA KNIGHTS.  There are some very interesting things happening with UCF, and none of them involve either of the overrated Jordan brothers.  The most interesting thing, to me, is Keith Clanton, who made a huge leap in his sophomore year and was among the C-USA leaders in points, blocks, boards, and FG %.   Guy is a monster, and the Knights will be able to put Michael Chandler, the fifth best incoming center in the country according to Rivals, right next to him this year - and he picked UCF over Kentucky.  With those two, the Jordans, their starting point guard back, and some talented transfers, UCF has a very good chance at grabbing an NCAA bid - or starting out hot as fire and then collapsing like a dying star like last season.

3.  MARSHALL THUNDERING HERD.  It's been two years since Hassan Whiteside jumped to the NBA D-League, but somehow, improbably, Marshall is actually like, really really talented this year (for a C-USA team).  DeAndre Kane was freshman of the year last season, and Justin Coleman was stolen away from Louisville and then did this at their big not Midnight Madness event:  

And I'll just leave it at that.


4.  RICE OWLS.  You probably aren't smart enough to know this, but this is actually a really ballsy call.  Rice has been one of the worst college basketball teams in the world the last few seasons, but last year managed to win five conference games - which equaled their combined total for the previous 3 seasons.  A small step, but still a step in the right direction, and they still have Arsalan Kazemi, who is not that Lion from the Jesus movies but might be the best player in the conference outside of Memphis.  They also add a truly excellent mid-level play-making point guard in Dylan Ennis, who had offers from basically every mid-major and chose to become an Owl.  It's a down year in C-USA this season, so maybe Rice can actually make a postseason tournament.  WHAT AN ADVENTURE!

5.  TULSA GOLDEN HURRICANE.  Justin Hurtt led C-USA in scoring last season and has graduated, but it looks like Tulsa has a player already waiting to take over for him in Jordan Clarkson who scored 12 per game as a freshman last year and closed out last year with seven straight games in double-figures.  Tulsa also returns two other double figure scorers including former UCONN transfer Scottie Haralson, who is the best long-range threat on the Hurricane, and Steven Idlet who gives them an inside presence.  I might actually be underselling them a bit with that much back, but it will take a while to adjust to not having Hurtt around.  Probably one of those teams that is a lot better in February than in November. 

6.  UAB BLAZERS.  The Blazers are a lot like several other C-USA teams in that they have an awful lot of talent from last year that's no longer available - in this case their three top guards are all history - but they have an advantage over many of the other squads because they have a solid base with a couple of very good post players, including Cameron Moore who was their second leading scorer and #2 rebounder in the conference last season, and rather than relying on freshmen or transfers to fill in for the departed they have a bunch of sophomores with some experience.  I don't really see an NCAA berth here, but I wouldn't rule it out either.  I'm like Peter King.  MAYBE.

7.  SOUTHERN MISS EAGLES.  Another team dealing with some major losses, the Eagles will have to replace leading scorer and rebounder Gary Flowers as well as two of their three starting guards.  Larry Eustachy did what guys like Larry Eustachy do, and went out and grabbed a ton of JuCo players to team up with starting point guard Angelo Johnson - yes the Minnesota kid - who led the team in assists last season.  The JuCos being brought in look good with three guys ranking in the top 150 JuCo players according to Rivals, including #2 Keith DeWitt who was originally a Missouri commit, but you never know what you're getting with Juco players - don't forget this same list had Devron Bostick ranked as a top 5 player (which he could have been if Tubby knew how to use him properly - arg.)

8.  SOUTHERN METHODIST MUSTANGS.  Despite losing one of the best players in C-USA last year, Papa Dia, SMU should still be competitive thanks to four other returning starters.  Robert Nyakundi is clearly the best returner - he was second on the team with 14.3 points and 4.3 rebounds per game last season, and even though he is an excellent outside shooter, hitting 50% from three last seasons, he doesn't live out there and can score from anywhere, not to mention being an excellent rebounder.  Then there's some other guys too.

9.  UTEP MINERS.  UTEP was a pretty fun team to watch last year.  Randy Culpepper could score in bunches and I'm pretty sure is one of the all-time leading scorers for the Miners, Christian Polk had one of the most incredible games I've ever seen against Memphis in the C-USA Championship (27 pts on 11-14 shooting), Julyan Stone was a defensive standout and awesome rebounder, and Jeremy Williams was the team's third leading scorer who I don't remember  Now those guys are all gone.   Basically the whole team is new guys, either from high school or transfers, either JuCo or otherwise, and who knows that'll probably make them competitive here and there but it'll be a tough year. 

10.  TULANE GREEN WAVE.  Tulane loses three starters from last season, but the good news for them is they are at least retaining the most important two - swingman Kendall Timmons and point guard Jordan Callahan (who is probably related to that little wiener from South Dakota State).  Timmons led the team in scoring, rebounding, steals, and blocks last year and can do it all, while Callahan was second in scoring and led the team (and was fifth in C-USA) in assists, so Tulane at least has a good backcourt to build around.  Of course I'm not sure what they're building around them with, since there are only two other returnees from last year's team on the roster.  Josh Davis is a transfer from NC State where he played in all 31 games as a freshman two seasons ago, so that's a good start, and those two guards are going to be good enough to engineer at upset or two at some point this year.

11.  EAST CAROLINA PIRATES.  By ECU standards, last season was a smashing success - they beat Memphis for the first time ever, won two CUSA Tournament games, and were granted an invite to the collegeinsider.com post-season tournament, their first postseason berth since 1992.  Of course, as it goes with these kinds of programs, that was the big shot and now three of their top four players are gone to graduation and it's back to the depths of the conference for the Pirates.  Although there is some reason for optimism - ECU landed transfers from both South Carolina and Missouri.  If ECU can become an attractive "second-chance" transfer school that might be their way to climb up the C-USA pecking order.

12.  HOUSTON COUGARS.  You know what's never good?  When you go 12-18 and lose all three of your double-digit scorers.  Welcome to Houston.   The good news here, however, is that nobody really cares about this year because this is just year #2 for their new coach and he's got recruiting moving in a very good direction.  The Cougars bring in a Rivals Top 150 recruit this year in PF TaShawn Thomas (#113) and have two more on their way next season in PF Chicken Knowles (#47), who chose the Cougars over Missouri and Baylor, and an incredible get in PF Danuel House (#15) who went with Houston and spurned Arizona, Kansas, Ohio State, and Texas amongst others to become a Cougar.  Very impressive stuff here, and maybe a hint that Houston could actually survive in the Big East.

NCAA Hoops Preview: CONFERENCE USA

Calipari is gone, taking most of an incredible recruiting class with him, and Memphis lost enough talent to be a top 10 team all on their own, meanwhile three other C-USA teams are geared up for a run at the title.  What this means is that looking at this conference is not as simple as penciling in Memphis for the first time in a whole lot of years.  It's wide open.



1. MEMPHIS.  It was very tempting to pick one of the other schools that look poised to knock off the Tigers, but don't forget the guys they have coming back were still signed by Calipari when he could get nearly anyone he wanted, you just don't remember because they were behind so much other talent.  Wes Witherspoon is a 6-8 combo guard/forward play anywhere do anything type guy, and he was #34 on the Rivals 150 when he came out.  Junior guards Willie Kemp and Doneal Mack were #s 53 and 47 when they came out, and forward Pierre Niles was #117.  And don't forget Elliot Williams who transferred from Duke - he was #16.  So yeah, there's plenty gone, but there's still plenty around.   

2.  TULSA.  If you were going to put up a blueprint for a mid-major to make some noise in a season, the Golden Hurricane would be it.  Senior point guard who can score and control a game?  Check, Ben Uzoh.  Monster center who dominates the paint, offensively and defensively?  Check, Jerome Jordan.  A bunch of juniors and seniors who are quality role players and know their responsibilites?  Yep, all over the place.  They have gotten a little press already (I think Katz or somebody had them on their early Top 25), and it's worth noting that the C-USA tournament is in Tulsa this year.

3.  UTEP.  I almost had the Miners in first (which explains why I had a UTEP photo at the ready), but then I remembered that I was mostly putting them there because I have an irrational love of Derrick Caracter, the fat discipline problem who got booted from Louisville - yes, he's at UTEP now.  If he has it together, they will be very tough on the front line, and also return Randy Culpepper, a 17.5 point per game scorer who, although being very Robet Vaden-like, really seemed to hit his stride in the Miners' run to the CBI championship game.

4.  HOUSTON.  I'm not a huge fan of the Cougs this year, but any time a team returns two 18+ ppg senior guards you at least have to pay attention.  Of course, they also lose all the size they had without much coming back to replace it, but you know Penders can coach, you know they're going to play up tempo, and you know they will probably give a few teams fits this year.  Houston is playing in the Great Alaskan Shootout this year, which will be a good litmus test to see where they stand.

5.  MARSHALL.  Randy Moss U returns four starters from last season's 6th place team, although they do lose their top scorer.  The Thundering Herd's strength lies in the backcourt, where they get most of their scoring including Chris Lutz who scored 37 against Tulane and recently won a roster spot on the Phillipines' National Team (note:  I have no idea how impressive this is or isn't.)  Marshall also brings in the best recruit in C-USA not going to Memphis in center Hassan Whiteside (#87 rivals 150), a 6-11 center who should compliment the perimeter guys, although it sounds like his academics might not be in order.

6.  TULANE.  At this point it's now a total crapshoot, as the remaining teams are all pretty much bottom of the barrel.  The Green Wave get the nod at the top of the scrap heap simply because they are the best defensive team of the bunch, and they return a three-year do everything starter at point guard in Kevin Sims.  They also add Juco transfer wing Aaron Holmes, who was ranked #117 on Rivals list coming out of high school in 2006.

7.  SOUTHERN METHODIST.   Slightly better than the rest due to a returning backcourt of Paul McCoy and Derek Williams, who averaged over 25 points between the two of them last year and both of whom had positive assist-to-turnover ratios, a rarity amongst the guards in the bottom tier of this conference.  They also return power forward and former transfer from Georgia Tech Mouhammad Faye, who closed out last season with four straight games scoring in double figures and played for Senegal in the FIBA Africa Championships, averaging 17 points per game.  Oh, and if you were expecting Matt Doherty to turn SMU around through recruiting, it ain't happening thus far.

8.  SOUTHERN MISS.  Partyboy Larry Eustachy seemed to have the Golden Eagles moving in the right direction, but then 3-time All C-USA guard Jeremy Wise decided to jump into the NBA draft (note:  he wasn't drafted) and that knocks the team back down a peg.  With three other starters gone, the new talent Eustachy is bringing in has to help immediately.  Minneapolis boy Angelo Johnson will likely start at the point right away, and there are three new JuCo players who are all ranked in the top 60 by Juco Junction, with Gary Flowers ranked #1 in the country.  As with all Jucos, you never know what you're gonna get.

9.  CENTRAL FLORIDA.  UCF loses Jermaine Taylor, last year's C-USA scoring leader at 26.2 ppg and returns not much outside of 3-point specialist Isaac Sosa, who shot 45% behind the line last year to lead the conference.  The Knights do bring in a nice class, including a trio of 3-star players who collectively had offers from teams such as South Carolina, Alabama, Providence, Iowa, Stanford, and Butler.  One of the newcomers will bring increased media attention - Michael Jordan's son Marcus.  At least until he quits like his quitter brother.

10.  RICE.  Do you know who Rice's coach is?  It's Ben Braun.  The same Ben Braun who had a good amount of success with Cal not that long ago.  It's going to be quite a task to turn the Owls around (they were 10-22 last year, Braun's first season), but he's already starting to make inroads.  He signed a couple of three-stars this year (no small feat for Rice) in PG Tamir Jackson, who also had an offer from UAB, and power forward and likely terrorist Arsalan Kazemi from Iran, who had offers from Cincinnati and Maryland and may or may not be related to the lion from Narnia.  It's still a long road ahead, but looking to get better.

10.  UAB.  Everything was aligned for UAB to make a run at Memphis last year, and at least make the NCAA tournament.  Oops.  And now everybody is gone, with the Blazers losing more than 75% of their scoring from last season and 90% of their shots with Robert Vaden finally graduating.  The recruiting class fell apart as well.  UAB had a verbal from both Rivals #2 DeMarcus Cousins and were thought to be in the lead for hometown PG and #23 prospect Eric Bledsoe, but both ending up signing with Kentucky, as Mike Davis still can't beat Calipari.  After losing out on almost every other recruiting battle, the cupboard is pretty bare.  Transfer Elijah Milsap, who I think is Paul's brother, transferred in from LA-Lafayette and will pretty much instantly become the Blazers' best player.

12.  EAST CAROLINA.  One of the worst defensive teams in all of college basketball last year (ranking 336/344 in defensive efficiency) did very little to address that, at least in terms of signing anybody of relevance.  They also lost their two best players to graduation, with not much behind them to step up.  The bright side is they have junior point guard Brock Young who was second in the country in assists last season with 7.6 per game - the only problem is there is nobody left to score.


So there you have it.  Will C-USA be a multi-bid league this year?  Will Memphis finally be dethroned or can Josh Pastner pick up right where Calipari left off?  Has Derrick Caracter finally grown up?  With coaches like Tom Penders, Ben Braun, Matt Doherty, and Larry Eustachy in the conference, when will it's national profile start to rise?  Will Arsalan Kazemi blow up a stadium?

It's going to be an interesting year in C-USA.