So far things in the NCAA Tournament have gone pretty close to what I expected. All my Final Four teams are still alive (Florida, Louisville, Arizona, Michigan State - and yes I know that's a pretty popular combination), and I called Kansas going out early. My only real misses were believing in Creighton (or maybe not believing in Baylor), believing in Duke despite knowing how horrible their defense was (I have no idea why I didn't take Michigan here), and thinking Syracuse had figured out their issues. Overall, my bracket still has a chance to win, so thank you for asking. Anyway, here's what's happening on Thursday:
#11 Dayton vs. #10 Stanford.
There are many great looking games that will be played this weekend, and this game will also be played. There isn't a lot of shine to it because even though both teams are underdogs neither team is very sexy. Stanford is nerds and Dayton is Dayton. Although Dayton looks like the more athletic team with guys like Sibert, Sanford, and Pierre who can kind of do a little of everything, Stanford has not just size but skilled size in Dwight Powell and Stefan Nastic, as well as Josh Huestis who seems to play big.
It should be a close game, but unfortunately for lose who were hoping to experience a little schadenfreude at the expense of Reid Travis with Johnny Dawkins flaming out and getting fired (which clearly isn't happening now), I think he gets another big win. I'm on Stanford here laying the three.
#6 Baylor vs. #2 Wisconsin.
I know Scott Drew is a horrible coach. I know it all the way to the bottom of my tiny black heart, but I'm not so sure Bo Ryan is that much better, at least this year and Baylor is absolutely clicking at the right time. More than that, how the hell is Wisconsin going to deal with Baylor's size and athleticism? Cory Jefferson is what Nigel Hayes hopes to be in four years and he's having a great run to end his career. Isaiah Austin seems to finally be getting it, Rico Gathers is a rebounding machine, and the wings are Royce O'Neale and Taurean Prince who are 6-6 and 6-7. Frank Kaminsky might actually get killed. You realize Duje Dukan will likely have to be prominently involved here?
Wisconsin's only chance is if Scott Drew plays a zone, which is actually Baylor's preferred, and they get hot. Drew is dumb enough to do it, but even if he does their size might bother Wisconsin enough so it actually works. This is still my biggest bet of the weekend at five units to cover three and a half and another unit on the moneyline. Also taking the under 137 for a unit, as I think Wisconsin is going to play slower and hope Baylor is dumb enough to not be able to guard. Also possible.
#4 UCLA vs. #1 Florida.
Florida was my pick to win a couple months ago and still is, and I realize that's not really going out on a limb but I just can't find any weaknesses here. They have the second best defense in the country (on a per possession basis) behind Arizona and a top 20 offense as well. They have senior leadership that seems to count in March and excellent guard play with the SEC player of the year in Scottie Wilbekin. They have five guys who can have a blow up game so if anybody is off (maybe outside Wilbekin if we're talking things beyond shooting) oh well just move on to the next guy.
I like UCLA a lot and Kyle Anderson is one of my favorite players and if Zach LaVine and Norman Powell are clicking those three and Jordan Adams form a damn good four pack, but LaVine has been horrible lately. For UCLA to win you're going to be counting on the Wear twins and Tony Parker to check Florida's group of tight end looking guys who can come at you in waves. No chance. Florida -4.5 for three units. I also think there's a decent chance this goes over the 137 because UCLA likes to run and Florida can run with anybody, but I can also see a repeat of their game against Pitt where the Bruins can't score and the Gators just grind clock. Pass for now, but I'm sure I'll do something with it prior to tip because I'm an action junkie.
#4 San Diego State vs. #1 Arizona.
This has not been a kind tournament to defensive minded teams who are limited offensively - Kansas State, Ohio State, Cincinnati, and St. Louis are all gone. San Diego State fits that mold as well with one difference - Xavier Thames. You could try to make a similar argument in favor of Cincy and Sean Kilpatrick, but where it always seems like Kilpatrick has to struggle to score, Thames seems to do it much more effortlessly. I know that kind of sounds stupid since Kilpatrick averaged over 20 points per game this year, but I managed to watch a lot of Cincy and see SDSU a few times and it's just an impression I got, I can't really back it up. Just trust me I'm much smarter than you.
Yes, the Wildcats have the #1 point-per-possession defense in the field, and it's because they force opponents to take jump shots and pack the paint to take away almost anything driving to the rim. Well, Thames doesn't drive - he's taken only 17% of his shots this year at the rim but hits 40% on both two point and three point jumpers. Arizona is basically going to be daring an excellent jump shooter to shoot jump shots. I don't think that will be enough for the Aztecs to pull off an upset, but with that dynamic and a really, really good defense I expect this to be close. I know Arizona beat SDSU by 9 in San Diego earlier this year, but Arizona had Brandon Ashley in that game and SDSU didn't have Dwayne Polee so I'm on SDSU getting seven for two units. I also expect a real grind it out game, but the 122 is too low a number for me since it's a tournament game I figure to be close which could result in a lot of fouls, especially since my perception is in an elimination game losing teams continue to foul longer than they normally would. Instead I'm throwing two units on the first half line, under 55.5.
Showing posts with label Florida. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Florida. Show all posts
Wednesday, March 26, 2014
Sunday, March 16, 2014
Tournament Talk. Stupid NIT.
I am back from Florida now and it sucks. I'd much rather be there than here what with their beaches, fishing (I caught a snook!), ocean life (saw many dolphins, a couple of manatees, almost stepped on a stingray, and found a baby crab to show my kids), happy hour every day, the ocean, spring break chicks in bikinis who invite me into their bungalow to play drinking games and give me jello shots (actually happened!), fresh seafood, Yuengling evewhere, awesome sunsets and sunrises, the ocean, and consequence-less drinking. I won't dwell on how awesome Florida is because it should be pretty self-evident, but if you ever have a choice to be on Estero Island or Sanibel Island rather than being in stupid Minnesota you should totally do it.
One piece of advice I will give, is if you love seafood like I do go to the Farmer's Market (Fridays) or drive just over to the bridge to one of the fish markets. Even though it's so abundant in the gulf it's also really expensive - a typical grouper dinner is 20-25 bucks while a pound of shrimp appetizer is up to $15. At the markets you can get the grouper for about $20 a pound and the shrimp for a lot cheaper as well. If you know how to cook (and I do) and like to (and I do) you can get out of there a lot cheaper considering two pounds of grouper is about 8 portions, so you're only paying like $5 per meal instead of $25. I made an awesome almond-crusted grouper and an almost as good chili-lime preparation, and made some butter poached shrimp seasoned with this local seasoning blend that thsi one dude who my parents had try them said they were the best shrimp he had all week and he had some every day for a month. So yeah, I rock. And I got to de-head the shrimp, which is something I'd never done before. That's right, manly enough to rip the head off a shrimp and talented enough to cook a gourmet dinner. Settle down ladies, I'm taken.
Lots of basketball to catch up on, so we might as well get to it.
First, Gopher thoughts:
- Major bummer the Gophers missed the tournament, but not at all unexpected. They were essentially a single win away from getting in most likely, and it wouldn't have mattered when it happened. I think if you take any single one of their losses and turned it into a win the Gophers get in the tournament. Not having Dre Hollins for a couple of those losses sucked and who knows how much the committee looked at that and if it even would have mattered, but their name wasn't called, it would have been an upset if it had been, and we move on to the prestigious NIT.
- Despite missing the big tournament, I still consider this season a relative success since I didn't really plan on them making the tournament anyway (I'll delve further into a season recap after the NIT). They won a couple of games I normally wouldn't have thought they'd win, and competed well against teams I thought would blow them out. Despite a little regression by Austin Hollins, in general the players improved quite a bit from last year to this year, particularly the big men, and Dre Mathieu emerged as the type of player who should be on preseason all Big-10 lists. Even somebody who looked completely worthless in Joey King emerged to show he could end up being a decent big 10 player.
- Recruiting has been more interesting, if not any better. If you follow it you know how often the Gophers made top 5, top 3 lists and were mentioned as being in contention for a whole lot of highly ranked players. They pretty much failed to land any, however, which an optimist could chalk up to the late start Pitino got. I am that optimist. Looking forward to seeing what he can do with the class of 2015. If he doesn't land any high level talent in that class, then we can talk.
- NC State getting in is, yes, a pretty big surprise and yes, I would have thought the Gophers would get in over the Wolfpack but it's not really worth bitching about. If not NC State it would have been SMU. If not SMU it would have been Green Bay or Ole Miss or Cal or somebody like that. The Gophers just weren't there.
- Their NIT bracket is interesting, I guess. The first game against High Point is like, shoot me in the face, but a second rounder against either St. Mary's or Utah should be pretty fun. Then, if they make it, a game against Southern Miss would be interesting, although if they end up against Missouri the Gophers will get destroyed, but it'd be fun to watch their guards (Jabari Brown and Jordan Clarkson who each average over 17.5 points per game) in person, if that game would be at The Barn. I really don't know how that works.
- And I don't want to hear that a deep NIT run is more valuable/important than a first round NCAA exit. It's not, and anyone saying so is rationalizing, a pollyanna fan, or a complete idiot. That being said, a deep NIT run can be fun and entertaining and sure, may even help the team a bit for next season, so let's try to enjoy this even though I'll completely ignore any Gopher NIT game that clashes with any NCAA Tournament game.
Speaking of, now onto to general NCAA tournament things:
- The first thing I hate is Kansas and Florida in the same region, and I hated it because it popped up right away in the first region. But then I thought more and looked more and I think it might have saved me from making the terrible mistake of putting the Jayhawks in the Final Four. Without Embiid they're weaker inside, and in the second round they'll play New Mexico (who will kill Stanford) and their two headed giant monster of Cameron Bairstow and Alex Kirk. New Mexico could totally beat an Embiid-less Kansas, and I'm calling it now - they will.
- The second thing I hated was the potential round 2 match-up for Iowa State in North Carolina. When you're whole bit is to play fast and loose and basically try to outscore someone, the last thing you want to see is somebody who might be better at that style than you, and that's how the Heels look compared to the Cyclones (remember, I'm a pretty big Cyclone fan). Good news for the Cyclones is that UNC plays insanely fast, but they have struggled offensively at times this year. The bad news is that they've also beaten Michigan State and Louisville. As a fan of circus ball, and if you read this blog you know I love circus ball, as scary as this match-up is for ISU I really hope it happens - it would be circus ball galore. They couldn't make this over/under number high enough for me to not take the over.
- I had four teams in mind as my Final Four, as I usually do, prior to bracket release. Unlike usual, they actually are in three different brackets, so I only have to figure out what to do with the West. I like the idea of Ok State knocking off Arizona, but if that happens I basically have to take either OK State or San Diego State all the way to the Final Four, because there's no way anybody is making it out of that bottom bracket. I am a believer in Wisconsin, but the flame out too often to trust, so it's either Ok State, SDSU, or don't pick the upset and go with Zona. I don't know yet, but I'll let you know what I decide. Don't act like you don't care.
- The other place where I'm really having trouble is in the bottom half of the South. I already said I have New Mexico beating Kansas, but I don't feel really confident in their ability to make the elite 8, which means my choice is pretty much Ohio State or Syracuse. If Syracuse's late season plunge hadn't been so drastic and they still ended up as a 3 somehow that would have been perfect, but I'm not a big believer in the Orange right now. But Ohio State can't shoot, so as much as I think Syracuse is open to upset I don't think the Buckeyes are the team to do it. So basically I don't know what to do. I think New Mexico could do it, but I also know that's not how you win brackets. I'll probably end up going with Syracuse. Lucky draw for them, considering neither Western Michigan nor Ohio State can shoot for shit. Could get interesting if Dayton gets by the Buckeyes though, but they aren't really anything special. Lucky break for the Cuse.
- Although SWAC Champion Texas Southern is horrible, Aaric Murray could make things interesting. If you remember, Murray was a hot shot recruit who ended up choosing his hometown LaSalle, and averaged 12 and 7 and then 15 and 8 his two years there before, if I remember, a rather ugly transfer to West Virginia. After a rough year there (averaged 9 and 6) he somehow got another year of eligibility for, you can probably guess, Texas Southern. Murray averaged 21 and 8 against the terrible SWAC competition, but at 6-10, 245 lbs. with some serious offensive skills (not to mention 2.5 blocks per game) he could be a March hero. Here are the "real" teams they've played this year and Murray's results:
- Very little controversy it seems this year, which is a new thing. What are the beefs? SMU out, Louisville a 4 seed, and a loaded region for Wichita? Pretty low on the outrage meter. It's nice, because usually people bitch a whole lot more.
- Really, this is such a fun bracket. Can team's build on defense but with trouble scoring like Cincinnati, Ohio State, San Diego State, Virginia, and St. Louis have success? How about high flyers like the aforementioned Iowa State and UNC as well as BYU, VCU, Oklahoma, and Iowa who get up and down the court in a hurry? There are tested and experienced smaller conference teams like Wichita State and Harvard, and super young teams like Kentucky and Kansas. New Mexico State is the biggest team in the country by kenpom's Effective Height metric, and three of the five most experienced teams in the entire country made the field (Tex Southern #1, NC Central #4, and Mercer #5). Then there are teams with guys who could pull a Danny Manning/John Wallace in Oklahoma State, UCONN, and Creighton. I'm excited every year, but somehow this year seems better, even though there is no Chicago trip :sadface:.
- First pass - Final Four: Florida, Louisville, Arizona, Michigan State. Other Elite 8s: Syracuse, Creighton, Michigan, UCONN.
- Lastly, it could change but I'm taking Florida as my national champion, and yes I realize that's probably going to be a popular pick but I can't help it if this year the popular pick is also the correct pick. They play great defense and they can play in an uptempo game or a slow down game so they aren't vulnerable to any particular style of play. They have a guy in Michael Frazier who could win a game by himself by shooting threes, a smart experienced point guard in Scottie Wilbekin, and a mish mash of athletic big men who can pass and are comfortable anywhere on the floor and look like NFL tight ends. I love having a bunch of exchangeable players who can all do the same things, and Florida has that in spades with Will Yeguette, Dorian Finney-Smith, Casey Prather, Chris Walker, and Patric Young. Plus they have Billy Donovan. I know they're the #1 overall seed so it's not exactly going out on a limb, but who is going to beat these guys? I would absolutely love to see a Florida/Louisville game.
Be back later with a preview of the big NIT tilt on Tuesday. Looking super forward to researching High Point. Don't act like you ain't all jelly.
One piece of advice I will give, is if you love seafood like I do go to the Farmer's Market (Fridays) or drive just over to the bridge to one of the fish markets. Even though it's so abundant in the gulf it's also really expensive - a typical grouper dinner is 20-25 bucks while a pound of shrimp appetizer is up to $15. At the markets you can get the grouper for about $20 a pound and the shrimp for a lot cheaper as well. If you know how to cook (and I do) and like to (and I do) you can get out of there a lot cheaper considering two pounds of grouper is about 8 portions, so you're only paying like $5 per meal instead of $25. I made an awesome almond-crusted grouper and an almost as good chili-lime preparation, and made some butter poached shrimp seasoned with this local seasoning blend that thsi one dude who my parents had try them said they were the best shrimp he had all week and he had some every day for a month. So yeah, I rock. And I got to de-head the shrimp, which is something I'd never done before. That's right, manly enough to rip the head off a shrimp and talented enough to cook a gourmet dinner. Settle down ladies, I'm taken.
Lots of basketball to catch up on, so we might as well get to it.
First, Gopher thoughts:
- Major bummer the Gophers missed the tournament, but not at all unexpected. They were essentially a single win away from getting in most likely, and it wouldn't have mattered when it happened. I think if you take any single one of their losses and turned it into a win the Gophers get in the tournament. Not having Dre Hollins for a couple of those losses sucked and who knows how much the committee looked at that and if it even would have mattered, but their name wasn't called, it would have been an upset if it had been, and we move on to the prestigious NIT.
- Despite missing the big tournament, I still consider this season a relative success since I didn't really plan on them making the tournament anyway (I'll delve further into a season recap after the NIT). They won a couple of games I normally wouldn't have thought they'd win, and competed well against teams I thought would blow them out. Despite a little regression by Austin Hollins, in general the players improved quite a bit from last year to this year, particularly the big men, and Dre Mathieu emerged as the type of player who should be on preseason all Big-10 lists. Even somebody who looked completely worthless in Joey King emerged to show he could end up being a decent big 10 player.
- Recruiting has been more interesting, if not any better. If you follow it you know how often the Gophers made top 5, top 3 lists and were mentioned as being in contention for a whole lot of highly ranked players. They pretty much failed to land any, however, which an optimist could chalk up to the late start Pitino got. I am that optimist. Looking forward to seeing what he can do with the class of 2015. If he doesn't land any high level talent in that class, then we can talk.
- NC State getting in is, yes, a pretty big surprise and yes, I would have thought the Gophers would get in over the Wolfpack but it's not really worth bitching about. If not NC State it would have been SMU. If not SMU it would have been Green Bay or Ole Miss or Cal or somebody like that. The Gophers just weren't there.
- Their NIT bracket is interesting, I guess. The first game against High Point is like, shoot me in the face, but a second rounder against either St. Mary's or Utah should be pretty fun. Then, if they make it, a game against Southern Miss would be interesting, although if they end up against Missouri the Gophers will get destroyed, but it'd be fun to watch their guards (Jabari Brown and Jordan Clarkson who each average over 17.5 points per game) in person, if that game would be at The Barn. I really don't know how that works.
- And I don't want to hear that a deep NIT run is more valuable/important than a first round NCAA exit. It's not, and anyone saying so is rationalizing, a pollyanna fan, or a complete idiot. That being said, a deep NIT run can be fun and entertaining and sure, may even help the team a bit for next season, so let's try to enjoy this even though I'll completely ignore any Gopher NIT game that clashes with any NCAA Tournament game.
Speaking of, now onto to general NCAA tournament things:
- The first thing I hate is Kansas and Florida in the same region, and I hated it because it popped up right away in the first region. But then I thought more and looked more and I think it might have saved me from making the terrible mistake of putting the Jayhawks in the Final Four. Without Embiid they're weaker inside, and in the second round they'll play New Mexico (who will kill Stanford) and their two headed giant monster of Cameron Bairstow and Alex Kirk. New Mexico could totally beat an Embiid-less Kansas, and I'm calling it now - they will.
- The second thing I hated was the potential round 2 match-up for Iowa State in North Carolina. When you're whole bit is to play fast and loose and basically try to outscore someone, the last thing you want to see is somebody who might be better at that style than you, and that's how the Heels look compared to the Cyclones (remember, I'm a pretty big Cyclone fan). Good news for the Cyclones is that UNC plays insanely fast, but they have struggled offensively at times this year. The bad news is that they've also beaten Michigan State and Louisville. As a fan of circus ball, and if you read this blog you know I love circus ball, as scary as this match-up is for ISU I really hope it happens - it would be circus ball galore. They couldn't make this over/under number high enough for me to not take the over.
- I had four teams in mind as my Final Four, as I usually do, prior to bracket release. Unlike usual, they actually are in three different brackets, so I only have to figure out what to do with the West. I like the idea of Ok State knocking off Arizona, but if that happens I basically have to take either OK State or San Diego State all the way to the Final Four, because there's no way anybody is making it out of that bottom bracket. I am a believer in Wisconsin, but the flame out too often to trust, so it's either Ok State, SDSU, or don't pick the upset and go with Zona. I don't know yet, but I'll let you know what I decide. Don't act like you don't care.
- The other place where I'm really having trouble is in the bottom half of the South. I already said I have New Mexico beating Kansas, but I don't feel really confident in their ability to make the elite 8, which means my choice is pretty much Ohio State or Syracuse. If Syracuse's late season plunge hadn't been so drastic and they still ended up as a 3 somehow that would have been perfect, but I'm not a big believer in the Orange right now. But Ohio State can't shoot, so as much as I think Syracuse is open to upset I don't think the Buckeyes are the team to do it. So basically I don't know what to do. I think New Mexico could do it, but I also know that's not how you win brackets. I'll probably end up going with Syracuse. Lucky draw for them, considering neither Western Michigan nor Ohio State can shoot for shit. Could get interesting if Dayton gets by the Buckeyes though, but they aren't really anything special. Lucky break for the Cuse.
- Although SWAC Champion Texas Southern is horrible, Aaric Murray could make things interesting. If you remember, Murray was a hot shot recruit who ended up choosing his hometown LaSalle, and averaged 12 and 7 and then 15 and 8 his two years there before, if I remember, a rather ugly transfer to West Virginia. After a rough year there (averaged 9 and 6) he somehow got another year of eligibility for, you can probably guess, Texas Southern. Murray averaged 21 and 8 against the terrible SWAC competition, but at 6-10, 245 lbs. with some serious offensive skills (not to mention 2.5 blocks per game) he could be a March hero. Here are the "real" teams they've played this year and Murray's results:
- Miami: 16pts, 1 reb (foul trouble)
- Texas Tech: 8pts, 4 rebs (foul trouble)
- Stanford: 28 pts, 5 rebs
- Tulsa: 30 pts, 6 rebs
- Temple: 48 pts, 8 reb
- Very little controversy it seems this year, which is a new thing. What are the beefs? SMU out, Louisville a 4 seed, and a loaded region for Wichita? Pretty low on the outrage meter. It's nice, because usually people bitch a whole lot more.
- Really, this is such a fun bracket. Can team's build on defense but with trouble scoring like Cincinnati, Ohio State, San Diego State, Virginia, and St. Louis have success? How about high flyers like the aforementioned Iowa State and UNC as well as BYU, VCU, Oklahoma, and Iowa who get up and down the court in a hurry? There are tested and experienced smaller conference teams like Wichita State and Harvard, and super young teams like Kentucky and Kansas. New Mexico State is the biggest team in the country by kenpom's Effective Height metric, and three of the five most experienced teams in the entire country made the field (Tex Southern #1, NC Central #4, and Mercer #5). Then there are teams with guys who could pull a Danny Manning/John Wallace in Oklahoma State, UCONN, and Creighton. I'm excited every year, but somehow this year seems better, even though there is no Chicago trip :sadface:.
- First pass - Final Four: Florida, Louisville, Arizona, Michigan State. Other Elite 8s: Syracuse, Creighton, Michigan, UCONN.
- Lastly, it could change but I'm taking Florida as my national champion, and yes I realize that's probably going to be a popular pick but I can't help it if this year the popular pick is also the correct pick. They play great defense and they can play in an uptempo game or a slow down game so they aren't vulnerable to any particular style of play. They have a guy in Michael Frazier who could win a game by himself by shooting threes, a smart experienced point guard in Scottie Wilbekin, and a mish mash of athletic big men who can pass and are comfortable anywhere on the floor and look like NFL tight ends. I love having a bunch of exchangeable players who can all do the same things, and Florida has that in spades with Will Yeguette, Dorian Finney-Smith, Casey Prather, Chris Walker, and Patric Young. Plus they have Billy Donovan. I know they're the #1 overall seed so it's not exactly going out on a limb, but who is going to beat these guys? I would absolutely love to see a Florida/Louisville game.
Be back later with a preview of the big NIT tilt on Tuesday. Looking super forward to researching High Point. Don't act like you ain't all jelly.
Monday, August 26, 2013
Monday Musings
A lot has happened recently. I am writing about some of it.
- Josh Perkins, #25 player in the class of 2014 and one of the top point guards committed to Gonzaga on Saturday. This is meaningful because his final 3 were Gonzaga, UCLA, and the Gophers, even if the Gophers were a long shot given that he hadn't visited Minnesota in over a year. Although the Gophers still remain in the running for many top 100 type recruits and others and are on a few Top 5 type lists, with each player that commits elsewhere you can feel Gopher fans' collective butthole pucker just a little bit tighter.
See, that's the thing about taking a gamble such as hiring a 31-year-old head coach with only 1 year of head coaching experience at a mid-major, it only ends up being a good gamble if it works out. As much as it has been awesome seeing the Gophers pop up in a bunch of conversations with stud recruits, it's all for naught if the team ends up with nothing but a bunch of plan C fallback types it's going to add a lot of fuel to the fire that this was a bad hire for a Big Ten school, even if I don't believe that to be the case and I'm pretty sure all those people are either really old or really dumb (Dawger hi!) or big fat assholes.
I also don't think losing out on Josh Perkins is any reason to panic either, because the Gophers were pretty unlikely to get him anyway. At this point a class of J.P. Macura, Lourawls Nairn, Wade Baldwin, Isaiah Whitehead or Rashad Vaughn, and Reid Travis, Paul White, or Josh Martin is both realistic and one of the best classes in Gopher history. There are plenty of back-up options still out there that I'd be happy with as well. Really, we're nowhere near time to panic. Although as a lifelong Gopher fan I completely understand the impulse. Really, I do. I'm actually typing this while hiding under my bed.
- Speaking of Nairn, he's going to be on campus this weekend for an official visit, one of only three he's planning on taking (the other two are to Oklahoma and Indiana). He'll be attending the big Gopher/UNLV football game along with two other recruits, 2014's J.P. Macura and 2015's Alex Illikainen so needless to say, it's a pretty big football game for Gopher hoops. Not to mention that with Rashad Vaughn transferring to Findlay Prep in Nevada for his senior year UNLV has wormed their way into his Top 11 so there's a very real possibility that the winner of this game will vault to the lead for Vaughn's services. Is it likely? No. It's a near certainty.
- In other commitment news class of 2014 point guard Emmanuel Mudiay committed to Southern Methodist over the weekend. This is significant for many reasons, but the main one is that the #2 PG and #5 overall player in the class (according to ESPN) will be attending SMU which is not Kansas or Duke or Kentucky. SMU is his home school in Dallas, and no doubt that had a ton to do with it, as did the fact that the coach is Hall of Famer Larry Brown, but this is absolutely huge. Not only is SMU about to have the best player in their history (I assume) but with Mudiay on board this early he can start working on other big-time recruits and sell them on Brown, SMU, and Dallas. Now, no matter how fast the program rises Brown will get bored and bail in no more than 3 years because that's what he always does, but the next few years just got pretty interesting. Tyus could do the same thing for the Gophers, but unfortunately I'm fairly certain that ship has sailed to Duketown.
- I took WonderbabyTM, who is five years old now by the way, to see the movie Turbo over the weekend and I was pleasantly surprised. Any time you can work in House of Pain's Jump Around, We are the Champions, Snoop Dogg, Eye of the Tiger, and an homage to Bad News Bears in Breaking Training you're generally looking at a winner. Even if it was kind of stupid. Because snails can't talk, you see.
- Remember all that excitement about seeing some young Twins' prospects hit the major league level? Ok maybe not excitement but it something more than boredom. Interest, maybe? Anyway, how horribly has that worked out? Aaron Hicks - demoted twice, hitting .176 at Rochester and now on the DL. Kyle Gibson - good debut, horrible since, no command whatsoever, and now back at AAA. Only Oswaldo Arcia could be considered a success among the rookies mainly due to his young age (22) and his bat (6th in the AL among rookies in batting WAR), although his fielding has been such a disaster he's technically actually been worse than replacement level. Chris Parmelee probably proved he's a AAAA guy once and for all, Vance Worley and Scott Diamond were disasters, Liam Hendriks was Liam Hendriks, and Cole De Vries disappeared. You could get a little bit excited about Sam Deduno if you want, but really only because there's nothing else to grab onto here. It's 2am at the bar, nobody better panned out, and suddenly taking Sam Deduno home is starting to look attractive. I guess what I'm trying to say is that the Twins are drunk.
- It seems with E.J. Manuel hurt and Kevin Kolb's career possibly over there is the very real possibility that the Buffalo Bills will start undrafted free agent QB Jeff Tuel in Week 1 vs. New England (over Matt Leinart, which is in and of itself hilarious). Tuel went to Washington State where he must not have been too shitty. The real issue is for those in survivor leagues. I have always made it a hard and fast rule to never take a road team in those, but with no real clear cut home team to pick the Patriots on the road against Tuel is really tempting. Sometimes breaking the rules is exciting.
- I just started watching Breaking Bad (I know, I know). It's really freaking good. Turns out sometimes the masses are actually correct. I'm only 4 episodes in, but it's good to see Walt see the error of his ways and give up the drug trade. I'm interested to see where the show goes from here with the drug angle eliminated. Must be something pretty awesome, considering how much everybody loves the show.
- Yesterday was my 13th Anniversary with Mrs. W (yes, we got married pretty young). She's still hot, and she's still awesome. Pretty cool.
- I'm weirdly excited about college football, more than I ever have been before despite knowing almost nothing about it, to a shameful level. All I really know is that the games are fun to gamble on, the player props are super fun to gamble on, the games are fun to watch before college basketball starts, and I'm rooting my ass off for Florida this year. Why Florida you ask? Good question.
Last year, probably February sometime, I was perusing one of the gambling sites I used and saw Florida at 20/1 to win the National Championship. This was when the Gators were rolling and ranked in the top 5 and I was like whoa, 20/1 those are great odds! Let me throw $50 down on that and we're goin' Sizzla! A week or so later I go to look at what all bets I have pending and I notice that I accidentally bet on the Gators to win the FOOTBALL National Championship. I don't even know if they're good, but they're in the SEC so as long as they can lose only once or less they should be in ok shape. Also yes I was drinking that night.
- Finally, this:
Also, this Skylar broad is kind of a buzzkill.
- Josh Perkins, #25 player in the class of 2014 and one of the top point guards committed to Gonzaga on Saturday. This is meaningful because his final 3 were Gonzaga, UCLA, and the Gophers, even if the Gophers were a long shot given that he hadn't visited Minnesota in over a year. Although the Gophers still remain in the running for many top 100 type recruits and others and are on a few Top 5 type lists, with each player that commits elsewhere you can feel Gopher fans' collective butthole pucker just a little bit tighter.
See, that's the thing about taking a gamble such as hiring a 31-year-old head coach with only 1 year of head coaching experience at a mid-major, it only ends up being a good gamble if it works out. As much as it has been awesome seeing the Gophers pop up in a bunch of conversations with stud recruits, it's all for naught if the team ends up with nothing but a bunch of plan C fallback types it's going to add a lot of fuel to the fire that this was a bad hire for a Big Ten school, even if I don't believe that to be the case and I'm pretty sure all those people are either really old or really dumb (Dawger hi!) or big fat assholes.
I also don't think losing out on Josh Perkins is any reason to panic either, because the Gophers were pretty unlikely to get him anyway. At this point a class of J.P. Macura, Lourawls Nairn, Wade Baldwin, Isaiah Whitehead or Rashad Vaughn, and Reid Travis, Paul White, or Josh Martin is both realistic and one of the best classes in Gopher history. There are plenty of back-up options still out there that I'd be happy with as well. Really, we're nowhere near time to panic. Although as a lifelong Gopher fan I completely understand the impulse. Really, I do. I'm actually typing this while hiding under my bed.
- Speaking of Nairn, he's going to be on campus this weekend for an official visit, one of only three he's planning on taking (the other two are to Oklahoma and Indiana). He'll be attending the big Gopher/UNLV football game along with two other recruits, 2014's J.P. Macura and 2015's Alex Illikainen so needless to say, it's a pretty big football game for Gopher hoops. Not to mention that with Rashad Vaughn transferring to Findlay Prep in Nevada for his senior year UNLV has wormed their way into his Top 11 so there's a very real possibility that the winner of this game will vault to the lead for Vaughn's services. Is it likely? No. It's a near certainty.
- In other commitment news class of 2014 point guard Emmanuel Mudiay committed to Southern Methodist over the weekend. This is significant for many reasons, but the main one is that the #2 PG and #5 overall player in the class (according to ESPN) will be attending SMU which is not Kansas or Duke or Kentucky. SMU is his home school in Dallas, and no doubt that had a ton to do with it, as did the fact that the coach is Hall of Famer Larry Brown, but this is absolutely huge. Not only is SMU about to have the best player in their history (I assume) but with Mudiay on board this early he can start working on other big-time recruits and sell them on Brown, SMU, and Dallas. Now, no matter how fast the program rises Brown will get bored and bail in no more than 3 years because that's what he always does, but the next few years just got pretty interesting. Tyus could do the same thing for the Gophers, but unfortunately I'm fairly certain that ship has sailed to Duketown.
- I took WonderbabyTM, who is five years old now by the way, to see the movie Turbo over the weekend and I was pleasantly surprised. Any time you can work in House of Pain's Jump Around, We are the Champions, Snoop Dogg, Eye of the Tiger, and an homage to Bad News Bears in Breaking Training you're generally looking at a winner. Even if it was kind of stupid. Because snails can't talk, you see.
- Remember all that excitement about seeing some young Twins' prospects hit the major league level? Ok maybe not excitement but it something more than boredom. Interest, maybe? Anyway, how horribly has that worked out? Aaron Hicks - demoted twice, hitting .176 at Rochester and now on the DL. Kyle Gibson - good debut, horrible since, no command whatsoever, and now back at AAA. Only Oswaldo Arcia could be considered a success among the rookies mainly due to his young age (22) and his bat (6th in the AL among rookies in batting WAR), although his fielding has been such a disaster he's technically actually been worse than replacement level. Chris Parmelee probably proved he's a AAAA guy once and for all, Vance Worley and Scott Diamond were disasters, Liam Hendriks was Liam Hendriks, and Cole De Vries disappeared. You could get a little bit excited about Sam Deduno if you want, but really only because there's nothing else to grab onto here. It's 2am at the bar, nobody better panned out, and suddenly taking Sam Deduno home is starting to look attractive. I guess what I'm trying to say is that the Twins are drunk.
- It seems with E.J. Manuel hurt and Kevin Kolb's career possibly over there is the very real possibility that the Buffalo Bills will start undrafted free agent QB Jeff Tuel in Week 1 vs. New England (over Matt Leinart, which is in and of itself hilarious). Tuel went to Washington State where he must not have been too shitty. The real issue is for those in survivor leagues. I have always made it a hard and fast rule to never take a road team in those, but with no real clear cut home team to pick the Patriots on the road against Tuel is really tempting. Sometimes breaking the rules is exciting.
- I just started watching Breaking Bad (I know, I know). It's really freaking good. Turns out sometimes the masses are actually correct. I'm only 4 episodes in, but it's good to see Walt see the error of his ways and give up the drug trade. I'm interested to see where the show goes from here with the drug angle eliminated. Must be something pretty awesome, considering how much everybody loves the show.
- Yesterday was my 13th Anniversary with Mrs. W (yes, we got married pretty young). She's still hot, and she's still awesome. Pretty cool.
- I'm weirdly excited about college football, more than I ever have been before despite knowing almost nothing about it, to a shameful level. All I really know is that the games are fun to gamble on, the player props are super fun to gamble on, the games are fun to watch before college basketball starts, and I'm rooting my ass off for Florida this year. Why Florida you ask? Good question.
Last year, probably February sometime, I was perusing one of the gambling sites I used and saw Florida at 20/1 to win the National Championship. This was when the Gators were rolling and ranked in the top 5 and I was like whoa, 20/1 those are great odds! Let me throw $50 down on that and we're goin' Sizzla! A week or so later I go to look at what all bets I have pending and I notice that I accidentally bet on the Gators to win the FOOTBALL National Championship. I don't even know if they're good, but they're in the SEC so as long as they can lose only once or less they should be in ok shape. Also yes I was drinking that night.
- Finally, this:
Also, this Skylar broad is kind of a buzzkill.
Monday, March 18, 2013
Welcome Back to the NCAA Tournament
Well the Gophers are back in the NCAA Tournament and I gotta say despite everything else it feels damn good. I'm also pretty pleased with the 11 seed, because it keeps the Gophers away from the #1s and #2s as long as possible, although a possible second round match-up with Florida would probably be every bit the bloodbath you'd see against a #1 or #2. I'll be back with a preview of UCLA on Wednesday night (and then will go radio silent (except twitter) until the next week as we take our annual trip to Chicago to watch all the games from the Dayton Bar with Bogart.) I've also been informed that the Dayton Bar is also an Ole Miss bar so I'm looking forward to watching them hopefully beat the Badgers.
Anyway, here are the toughest things I'm struggling with as a fill out my bracket:
1) Florida or Georgetown? There were three teams I wanted to put in the final four for sure: Louisville, Florida, or Georgetown. Unfortunately, now I can't do that and need to make a choice between the Gators and Hoyas since they'd play in the Sweet 16 if everything holds. I love Florida because they have so many weapons and can score inside or out, and they compliment that with great defense. Georgetown is also an amazing defensive team, and they have Big East Player of the Year Otto Porter who is good enough to carry that offense on his back a la John Wallace or Kemba Walker. I hate that I have to choose, but I'm going with the Gators.
2) What do do with Wisconsin. I hate this. I was all set to have both Wisconsin (because I hate them) and Kansas State (because they, and Bruce Weber, suck) to lose in the first round, but it all broke wrong. Wisconsin gets an Ole Miss team who I don't think can compete with them, and Kansas State gets the play-in winner of LaSalle and Boise State, neither of whom is very good at all. I almost have to take K-State and Wisconsin to both win their first round match-up, and if that happens there's no way K-State can beat the Badgers because Ryan can coach circles around Weber and the Wildcats are perfectly undisciplined enough to fall right into Wisconsin's traps. So I have Wisconsin in the Sweet 16. Feels really wrong and icky and dirty, but since they're always the luckiest team in America you can't rule it out. I'm still rooting against them though. If you don't it means you hate America.
3) Who comes out of the West? In every other region it's come down to one or two difficult decisions between teams I think are good enough to make the Final Four, while in the West I'm decided who is least flawed among the contenders. Gonzaga and New Mexico are good teams no doubt, but neither has been tested as often or as consistently. Both have some good non-conference wins of course but Gonzaga ran through a pretty crappy conference and although New Mexico played in a good MWC I just don't know if I'm buying it. That leaves Ohio State, about whom there are no questions regarding having been tested, but unless their offense continues to be about more than DeShaun Thomas they're going to struggle. If anything wacky happens I'm betting it's in this region, because there are some really weak teams for their seed (Arizona, K-State, Wisco, etc.). Right now I'm going to buy the Buckeyes. The team's offense is coming together with Thomas finding plenty of help, the defense is top-notch as usual, and the coaching is solid.
4) Can Louisville Survive? I think the Cardinals are the best team in the NCAA and my pick to win it all, but holy hell is the Midwest Region a bitch. I consider Oklahoma State, St. Louis, and Michigan State as dark horse Final Four candidates and sure enough, they're all here. The only real saving grace is that Duke is the #2 here and Duke sucks so at least they catch a break there. Even some of the really high seeds (#12 Oregon, #14 Valparaiso) are pretty dangerous. Whoever gets out of this region is going to have to have done some seriously good work. Luckily Louisville hits my check list - come in on a high note (not necessarily a conference tournament victory but just playing well), good guards who can make free throws, great defense, and a team who can shoot without being dependent on the 3. So yeah, despite the tough region Louisville is my champ.
5) Who upsets Kansas? I know Kansas has kind of shed that choker label, what with the two Final Fours since 2008 and all, but there's no way this version of Kansas is Final Four bound so the question becomes where do they get bounced? I'm betting they don't get out of the first weekend with North Carolina knocking them out as one of the toughest 8 seeds I can remember. I know Carolina has been talked about as being "down" this year and maybe they are with 10 losses, but do you realize their worst loss this year was to Texas? And after that their worst loss was to Butler? The rest are 3 losses to Miami, 2 to Duke, and one each to Indiana, Virginia, and NC State which means the Heels don't have a single loss to a team outside of kenpom's top 100 teams. They're probably a little too perimeter dependent to make a significant run, but they should dispatch Villanova with ease and then in a one-time game against Kansas? It could happen, kids, it could happen.
6) How good is Miami? That's an important question, because I don't believe in Indiana and I don't believe in Marquette, which means it's either Miami or Syracuse coming out of the East for me. I do expect Syracuse to beat the Hoosiers and face the Canes with a Final Four berth on the line, so it becomes a matter if I think Miami is good enough to handle the Cuse. As it turns out, I think they are. They're experienced enough to not get rattled and they have the guard play needed to break down the Orange's zone with four guys who are lights out from three, and they play excellent defense, rebound well, and come in off an ACC Tournament Championship. Their free throw shooting is a bit suspect, but otherwise Miami is another team who looks really, really good and I have them in my Final Four.
That's it for now, back later with a Gophers/UCLA preview.
Anyway, here are the toughest things I'm struggling with as a fill out my bracket:
1) Florida or Georgetown? There were three teams I wanted to put in the final four for sure: Louisville, Florida, or Georgetown. Unfortunately, now I can't do that and need to make a choice between the Gators and Hoyas since they'd play in the Sweet 16 if everything holds. I love Florida because they have so many weapons and can score inside or out, and they compliment that with great defense. Georgetown is also an amazing defensive team, and they have Big East Player of the Year Otto Porter who is good enough to carry that offense on his back a la John Wallace or Kemba Walker. I hate that I have to choose, but I'm going with the Gators.
2) What do do with Wisconsin. I hate this. I was all set to have both Wisconsin (because I hate them) and Kansas State (because they, and Bruce Weber, suck) to lose in the first round, but it all broke wrong. Wisconsin gets an Ole Miss team who I don't think can compete with them, and Kansas State gets the play-in winner of LaSalle and Boise State, neither of whom is very good at all. I almost have to take K-State and Wisconsin to both win their first round match-up, and if that happens there's no way K-State can beat the Badgers because Ryan can coach circles around Weber and the Wildcats are perfectly undisciplined enough to fall right into Wisconsin's traps. So I have Wisconsin in the Sweet 16. Feels really wrong and icky and dirty, but since they're always the luckiest team in America you can't rule it out. I'm still rooting against them though. If you don't it means you hate America.
3) Who comes out of the West? In every other region it's come down to one or two difficult decisions between teams I think are good enough to make the Final Four, while in the West I'm decided who is least flawed among the contenders. Gonzaga and New Mexico are good teams no doubt, but neither has been tested as often or as consistently. Both have some good non-conference wins of course but Gonzaga ran through a pretty crappy conference and although New Mexico played in a good MWC I just don't know if I'm buying it. That leaves Ohio State, about whom there are no questions regarding having been tested, but unless their offense continues to be about more than DeShaun Thomas they're going to struggle. If anything wacky happens I'm betting it's in this region, because there are some really weak teams for their seed (Arizona, K-State, Wisco, etc.). Right now I'm going to buy the Buckeyes. The team's offense is coming together with Thomas finding plenty of help, the defense is top-notch as usual, and the coaching is solid.
4) Can Louisville Survive? I think the Cardinals are the best team in the NCAA and my pick to win it all, but holy hell is the Midwest Region a bitch. I consider Oklahoma State, St. Louis, and Michigan State as dark horse Final Four candidates and sure enough, they're all here. The only real saving grace is that Duke is the #2 here and Duke sucks so at least they catch a break there. Even some of the really high seeds (#12 Oregon, #14 Valparaiso) are pretty dangerous. Whoever gets out of this region is going to have to have done some seriously good work. Luckily Louisville hits my check list - come in on a high note (not necessarily a conference tournament victory but just playing well), good guards who can make free throws, great defense, and a team who can shoot without being dependent on the 3. So yeah, despite the tough region Louisville is my champ.
5) Who upsets Kansas? I know Kansas has kind of shed that choker label, what with the two Final Fours since 2008 and all, but there's no way this version of Kansas is Final Four bound so the question becomes where do they get bounced? I'm betting they don't get out of the first weekend with North Carolina knocking them out as one of the toughest 8 seeds I can remember. I know Carolina has been talked about as being "down" this year and maybe they are with 10 losses, but do you realize their worst loss this year was to Texas? And after that their worst loss was to Butler? The rest are 3 losses to Miami, 2 to Duke, and one each to Indiana, Virginia, and NC State which means the Heels don't have a single loss to a team outside of kenpom's top 100 teams. They're probably a little too perimeter dependent to make a significant run, but they should dispatch Villanova with ease and then in a one-time game against Kansas? It could happen, kids, it could happen.
6) How good is Miami? That's an important question, because I don't believe in Indiana and I don't believe in Marquette, which means it's either Miami or Syracuse coming out of the East for me. I do expect Syracuse to beat the Hoosiers and face the Canes with a Final Four berth on the line, so it becomes a matter if I think Miami is good enough to handle the Cuse. As it turns out, I think they are. They're experienced enough to not get rattled and they have the guard play needed to break down the Orange's zone with four guys who are lights out from three, and they play excellent defense, rebound well, and come in off an ACC Tournament Championship. Their free throw shooting is a bit suspect, but otherwise Miami is another team who looks really, really good and I have them in my Final Four.
That's it for now, back later with a Gophers/UCLA preview.
Tuesday, March 12, 2013
Even More Tournament Information
Congrats go out to Long Island, South Dakota State, and Valpo for grabbing their league's autobids last night. Absolutely nothing else of significance happened. I, for one, can't wait to hear way too many stories about Nate Wolters as we wait for the real tournament to get going. Here's what's kicking off Wednesday.
PAC-12 CONFERENCE
Welcome back, Pac-12. After several years of crappy play and getting just 1-2 teams in the tournament, the Pac will likely have five teams receive bids this year. The teams are still mostly terrible, with the exception of UCLA who is talented but mind-boggling, and I am going to definitely take the UNDER on Pac-12 wins once the brackets are revealed and the lines come out, but it's at least a step back towards respectability.
FAVORITE: UCLA. Despite a rough start to the season that included an OT win versus UC-Irvine and a loss to Cal Poly the Bruins figured it out and won seven of their final nine games to take the conference regular season title. Good thing too, because they're easily the most talented team. Shabazz Muhammad is legitimately good enough to pull a Carmelo and take UCLA to the Final Four. The real problem is that Larry Drew is erratic enough to lead them to a first round loss.
SLEEPER: Washington. Tough to find a sleeper in a league this tightly bunched, but I'll go with Washington. Lorenzo Romar seems to get the Huskies to play well in March, and you can't go wrong rooting for circus ball.
W's PICK: Cal. They're annoying because they have Justin Cobbs, but they're also an NCAA Tournament team and one of few from the Pac-12 who I think might be able to make the Sweet 16 because of him. Cobbs and Allen Crabbe give the Bears two big-time scorers and assist guys and guards are gold when it comes to March basketball. They're ramping up as well, having won seven of their last eight heading to the tournament including wins over all four of the other NCAA bound Pac teams.
SOUTHEASTERN CONFERENCE
And as we speak about moving towards respectability we must also look at the other side of Two-Face and look at moving away from respectability and that's what's happened to the SEC. Outside of Florida these teams are awful. Missouri is the only other team who is solidly in the tournament last year and they've been horrendous and lost to a 15 seed last year and will probably be an early out again. Kentucky is down this year despite being talented because they aren't talented enough to overcome Calipari's inability to coach during a game and other than a rare decent year from Ole Miss every other program is in a major downward arc, with Mississippi State quite possibly the worst major conference team in history. I'm not kidding. They lost to Vanderbilt by 41. At home. Dontae Jones is rolling over in his grave.
FAVORITE: Florida. The Gators might be the heaviest favorite in any conference and that includes the smaller ones (maybe Davidson). Currently the #1 team on kenpom with a top 5 in both offensive and defensive efficiency, and enough depth and balance to survive a rough night from any of their players. That being said, it's a bit concerning that Florida is 0-5 in games with a final margin in the single digits this year, so if "not knowing how to win the close ones" is a real thing they could be in trouble. Then again, they have 24 wins this year and every single one was by at least 11 points so maybe it doesn't really matter.
SLEEPER: Arkansas. The Razorbacks should have been better than 10-8 in a down SEC, and they showed how good they can be when they basically ran Florida out of the gym in Fayetteville. They struggled this year with "can't win away from home"-itis, but at home they beat not only Florida but also Kentucky, Missouri, Tennessee, and Oklahoma - basically as the home team they were probably the second best team in the SEC. Unfortunately for them, the SEC Tournament isn't played in Arkansas so they're probably in trouble.
W's PICK: Ole Miss. The Rebels were looking good earlier this year at 17-2 and 6-0 in SEC play, but have limped down the stretch with a 5-6 finish that included ugly losses to South Carolina and Mississippi State that, along with a horrid non-conference schedule lacking any big wins, have them in rough shape to make the tournament. They benefit because Florida will gain very little with a win out and Billy Donovan knows it, where the Rebels need this more an anyone other than Tennessee.
SOUTHWESTERN ATHLETIC CONFERENCE
College basketball is crazy year after year, but if there's one thing you can always count on it's the SWAC being terrible. In the last 10 years they've ranked as the worst conference eight times (kenpom) and second to last the other two. Looking at their schools I can't remember a single one of them being remotely relevant in the NCAA Tournament - ever. This year Grambling went 0-27 and ranked dead last in both offensive and defensive efficiency, which I'm pretty sure means they're the worst team of all-time. Using kenpom's metrics, he would predict that Penn State would beat Grambling 82-48, the Gophers would win 92-44, and Florida (#1 team) would win 96-39. Hell, the second worst team in the country (New Orleans) would have a projected victory of 72-57. This is a stunningly bad team. It's almost admirable.
FAVORITE: Southern. They finished in second place behind Texas Southern, but Texas Southern is ineligible for the postseason because of NCAA violations. Additionally the team who tied with Southern for second, Arkansas-Pine Bluff, is ineligible for the post-season due to low APR scores as is Mississippi Valley State. So basically these schools all suck at basketball and at academics and cheating. Are we sure these are even colleges?
SLEEPER: Jackson State. Ok I lied when I said Florida or Davidson might be the heaviest favorite because it's clearly Southern. With the only other two teams on their level banned from tournament play there really is no dark horse because Southern should walk. They're ranked 163rd at kenpom and the next best eligible team is #312. I picked Jackson as my sleeper simply because they're the only other team who finished at .500 or better who will be playing in this thing.
W's PICK: Southern. It doesn't matter because they're going to get blown out by whomever they play (if they get through the First Four) but they should at least have fun destroying teams in getting there.
SOUTHLAND CONFERENCE
Similar to the SWAC the Southland is pretty terrible and is every year, but the difference is the Southland occasionally develops a respectable team (and will more often since Oral Roberts moved there this year for financial/geographic reasons). This is one of those years with Stephen F. Austin actually looking like a pretty decent squad (they beat Oklahoma and Long Beach). They will try to continue the Southland's first round tradition of kind of scaring teams but then fading away in the second half, although I still thank baby santa jesus for this moment, which I believe to be the most linked video on this blog:
FAVORITE: Stephen F. Austin. The Lumberjacks are actually an outstanding defensive team - as in the 6th best team in the country in defensive efficiency. And they're really well rounded on that side of the ball as well - the defend the two and the three well, don't allow offensive rebounds or commit many fouls and they cause a bunch of turnovers. Unfortunately their offense is brutal.
SLEEPER: Northwestern State. Not only are the Demons awesome because of what they did to Iowa, but they're also awesome because they not only score the most points of any team per game in the NCAA but they also play the fastest pace of any team in the NCAA. You know how fun it would be to watch them play somebody like North Carolina? God that would be fun.
W's PICK: Northwestern State. SFA would actually have a much better chance of scoring an upset with their super slow pace and tough defense, but seriously if I wanted to watch that kind of basketball I'd just move to Wisconsin. The Demons would at least be fun - mostly for the other team and their fans - but what can I say I'm a sucker for circus ball and NW State fits the bill. I'm kind of excited for them already, so they better not let me down or there'll be hell to pay. Hell.
CONFERENCE USA
It's Memphis and everybody else. Again. Memphis, who you might remember the Gophers actually beat, rolled through conference play on the way to a 16-0 record and have locked up their at-large bid. What this means, since this is Memphis and Josh Pastner, is that they'll likely lose focus and interest in the conference tournament and somebody else will have a chance to win it. The only question is if anybody is actually good enough to do so, even with the Tigers chasing butterflies or whatever.
FAVORITE: Memphis. When it comes to talent the Tigers are on a completely different level than everybody else. The only other team who can play there way to a possible at-large is Southern Miss and they finished four games behind Memphis in the standings and the lost to the Tigers by 13 and 16 in their two meetings. Maybe Memphis is the biggest favorite of anybody in any conference tournament. This stuff is hard.
SLEEPER: Houston. If I had to pick a non-Memphis or Southern Miss team to win this I'd go with UTEP, but Houston is a better "sleeper" since they're a middle of the pack squad who comes in a bit hot after winning their final three regular season games. Normally you'd say that's not a big deal since it's only three games, but for a team this young (top four scorers are all freshmen or sophomores) with some real talent (at least one Rivals Top 150 recruit has signed with the Cougars each of the last two years) this could be a sign of them coming together and figuring it out. Probably not, but maybe.
W's PICK: Memphis. Honestly there are only a couple teams Memphis will even to try to beat in this tournament, and none of them are very good and this thing is so wide open they might all lose early. Good thing Memphis is finally leaving that shitty conference because it's just getting worse and worse. Probably time to shut 'er down.
PAC-12 CONFERENCE
Welcome back, Pac-12. After several years of crappy play and getting just 1-2 teams in the tournament, the Pac will likely have five teams receive bids this year. The teams are still mostly terrible, with the exception of UCLA who is talented but mind-boggling, and I am going to definitely take the UNDER on Pac-12 wins once the brackets are revealed and the lines come out, but it's at least a step back towards respectability.
FAVORITE: UCLA. Despite a rough start to the season that included an OT win versus UC-Irvine and a loss to Cal Poly the Bruins figured it out and won seven of their final nine games to take the conference regular season title. Good thing too, because they're easily the most talented team. Shabazz Muhammad is legitimately good enough to pull a Carmelo and take UCLA to the Final Four. The real problem is that Larry Drew is erratic enough to lead them to a first round loss.
SLEEPER: Washington. Tough to find a sleeper in a league this tightly bunched, but I'll go with Washington. Lorenzo Romar seems to get the Huskies to play well in March, and you can't go wrong rooting for circus ball.
W's PICK: Cal. They're annoying because they have Justin Cobbs, but they're also an NCAA Tournament team and one of few from the Pac-12 who I think might be able to make the Sweet 16 because of him. Cobbs and Allen Crabbe give the Bears two big-time scorers and assist guys and guards are gold when it comes to March basketball. They're ramping up as well, having won seven of their last eight heading to the tournament including wins over all four of the other NCAA bound Pac teams.
SOUTHEASTERN CONFERENCE
And as we speak about moving towards respectability we must also look at the other side of Two-Face and look at moving away from respectability and that's what's happened to the SEC. Outside of Florida these teams are awful. Missouri is the only other team who is solidly in the tournament last year and they've been horrendous and lost to a 15 seed last year and will probably be an early out again. Kentucky is down this year despite being talented because they aren't talented enough to overcome Calipari's inability to coach during a game and other than a rare decent year from Ole Miss every other program is in a major downward arc, with Mississippi State quite possibly the worst major conference team in history. I'm not kidding. They lost to Vanderbilt by 41. At home. Dontae Jones is rolling over in his grave.
FAVORITE: Florida. The Gators might be the heaviest favorite in any conference and that includes the smaller ones (maybe Davidson). Currently the #1 team on kenpom with a top 5 in both offensive and defensive efficiency, and enough depth and balance to survive a rough night from any of their players. That being said, it's a bit concerning that Florida is 0-5 in games with a final margin in the single digits this year, so if "not knowing how to win the close ones" is a real thing they could be in trouble. Then again, they have 24 wins this year and every single one was by at least 11 points so maybe it doesn't really matter.
SLEEPER: Arkansas. The Razorbacks should have been better than 10-8 in a down SEC, and they showed how good they can be when they basically ran Florida out of the gym in Fayetteville. They struggled this year with "can't win away from home"-itis, but at home they beat not only Florida but also Kentucky, Missouri, Tennessee, and Oklahoma - basically as the home team they were probably the second best team in the SEC. Unfortunately for them, the SEC Tournament isn't played in Arkansas so they're probably in trouble.
W's PICK: Ole Miss. The Rebels were looking good earlier this year at 17-2 and 6-0 in SEC play, but have limped down the stretch with a 5-6 finish that included ugly losses to South Carolina and Mississippi State that, along with a horrid non-conference schedule lacking any big wins, have them in rough shape to make the tournament. They benefit because Florida will gain very little with a win out and Billy Donovan knows it, where the Rebels need this more an anyone other than Tennessee.
SOUTHWESTERN ATHLETIC CONFERENCE
College basketball is crazy year after year, but if there's one thing you can always count on it's the SWAC being terrible. In the last 10 years they've ranked as the worst conference eight times (kenpom) and second to last the other two. Looking at their schools I can't remember a single one of them being remotely relevant in the NCAA Tournament - ever. This year Grambling went 0-27 and ranked dead last in both offensive and defensive efficiency, which I'm pretty sure means they're the worst team of all-time. Using kenpom's metrics, he would predict that Penn State would beat Grambling 82-48, the Gophers would win 92-44, and Florida (#1 team) would win 96-39. Hell, the second worst team in the country (New Orleans) would have a projected victory of 72-57. This is a stunningly bad team. It's almost admirable.
FAVORITE: Southern. They finished in second place behind Texas Southern, but Texas Southern is ineligible for the postseason because of NCAA violations. Additionally the team who tied with Southern for second, Arkansas-Pine Bluff, is ineligible for the post-season due to low APR scores as is Mississippi Valley State. So basically these schools all suck at basketball and at academics and cheating. Are we sure these are even colleges?
SLEEPER: Jackson State. Ok I lied when I said Florida or Davidson might be the heaviest favorite because it's clearly Southern. With the only other two teams on their level banned from tournament play there really is no dark horse because Southern should walk. They're ranked 163rd at kenpom and the next best eligible team is #312. I picked Jackson as my sleeper simply because they're the only other team who finished at .500 or better who will be playing in this thing.
W's PICK: Southern. It doesn't matter because they're going to get blown out by whomever they play (if they get through the First Four) but they should at least have fun destroying teams in getting there.
SOUTHLAND CONFERENCE
Similar to the SWAC the Southland is pretty terrible and is every year, but the difference is the Southland occasionally develops a respectable team (and will more often since Oral Roberts moved there this year for financial/geographic reasons). This is one of those years with Stephen F. Austin actually looking like a pretty decent squad (they beat Oklahoma and Long Beach). They will try to continue the Southland's first round tradition of kind of scaring teams but then fading away in the second half, although I still thank baby santa jesus for this moment, which I believe to be the most linked video on this blog:
FAVORITE: Stephen F. Austin. The Lumberjacks are actually an outstanding defensive team - as in the 6th best team in the country in defensive efficiency. And they're really well rounded on that side of the ball as well - the defend the two and the three well, don't allow offensive rebounds or commit many fouls and they cause a bunch of turnovers. Unfortunately their offense is brutal.
SLEEPER: Northwestern State. Not only are the Demons awesome because of what they did to Iowa, but they're also awesome because they not only score the most points of any team per game in the NCAA but they also play the fastest pace of any team in the NCAA. You know how fun it would be to watch them play somebody like North Carolina? God that would be fun.
W's PICK: Northwestern State. SFA would actually have a much better chance of scoring an upset with their super slow pace and tough defense, but seriously if I wanted to watch that kind of basketball I'd just move to Wisconsin. The Demons would at least be fun - mostly for the other team and their fans - but what can I say I'm a sucker for circus ball and NW State fits the bill. I'm kind of excited for them already, so they better not let me down or there'll be hell to pay. Hell.
CONFERENCE USA
It's Memphis and everybody else. Again. Memphis, who you might remember the Gophers actually beat, rolled through conference play on the way to a 16-0 record and have locked up their at-large bid. What this means, since this is Memphis and Josh Pastner, is that they'll likely lose focus and interest in the conference tournament and somebody else will have a chance to win it. The only question is if anybody is actually good enough to do so, even with the Tigers chasing butterflies or whatever.
FAVORITE: Memphis. When it comes to talent the Tigers are on a completely different level than everybody else. The only other team who can play there way to a possible at-large is Southern Miss and they finished four games behind Memphis in the standings and the lost to the Tigers by 13 and 16 in their two meetings. Maybe Memphis is the biggest favorite of anybody in any conference tournament. This stuff is hard.
SLEEPER: Houston. If I had to pick a non-Memphis or Southern Miss team to win this I'd go with UTEP, but Houston is a better "sleeper" since they're a middle of the pack squad who comes in a bit hot after winning their final three regular season games. Normally you'd say that's not a big deal since it's only three games, but for a team this young (top four scorers are all freshmen or sophomores) with some real talent (at least one Rivals Top 150 recruit has signed with the Cougars each of the last two years) this could be a sign of them coming together and figuring it out. Probably not, but maybe.
W's PICK: Memphis. Honestly there are only a couple teams Memphis will even to try to beat in this tournament, and none of them are very good and this thing is so wide open they might all lose early. Good thing Memphis is finally leaving that shitty conference because it's just getting worse and worse. Probably time to shut 'er down.
Sunday, January 20, 2013
Week in Review - 1/21/2013
I really have no idea why I stopped doing these posts. They're fairly easy, since I can write parts of them during the week, they cover all sports for an entire week period, and they give you, the idiot reader, something to depend on knowing this post will be here every Monday morning. I'm going to do my best to get back on this and start having the Monday morning Week in Review's again. Or your money back. And I'm going to start with Lance Armstrong.
Ha ha just kidding. I don't care.
WHO WAS AWESOME
1. Joe Flacco. As much as I hate to give credit when it's due, I'm going to have to in Flacco's case because he had a great game getting the Ravens to the Super Bowl and outplayed Tom Brady to do it. He seems to have developed a couple interesting skills to go with one of the strongest arms in the league - he can pick apart a defense underneath using his backs and TEs, and he has that over the shoulder throw to Boldin in the end zone down cold. Both of his touchdown throws to Boldin were on that same play, and more than half his completions were to backs or tight ends, and then he can cut loose with that big arm to Torrey Smith when needed. It will be kind of interesting to see how he adjusts in the red zone when the 49ers inevitably put a safety on top of Boldin when they get close. I also just realized this is going to be a Harbaugh vs. Harbaugh Super Bowl and we're going to have to hear that over and over and over again. Oh god, and also Ray Lewis. And I have a feeling Colin Kaepernick is going to get way too much press, too. God I am suddenly remembering how much I hate the 2 weeks leading up to the Super Bowl. Don't they have some kind of 2-week coma drug? I know the wife and kids probably wouldn't be down for me going in that direction, but I'm not sure I have a choice. Not my fault.
2. Washington Nationals. In a baseball hot stove league that's been characterized by teams "going for it in their window" more than any other I can remember (Baltimore Orioles exempted, for some reason) the Nats just made another move that put them in the Dodgers/Blue Jays tier for "going for it" signing closer Rafael Soriano to a two year, $28 million deal with an option that automatically vests if he finishes 120 combined games in the two years. That now gives the Nationals a bullpen of Tyler Clippard in the 7th, Drew Storen in the 8th, and Soriano in the 9th, and that's in front of a rotation of Stephen Strasburg/Gio Gonzalez/Jordan Zimmermann/Dan Haren/Ross Detwiler. Their also loaded with a young and talented lineup with only one bad contract (Jayson Werth), Wilson Ramos will be back at catcher, they traded for Denard Span to fill their only real lineup leak, and resigned Adam LaRoche to a reasonable contract which gives them an excellent trade chip (Michael Morse, now a back-up who was just traded to Seattle in a three-way deal that brought them a couple decent prospects because lord knows they don't have enough) all at the same time. Yes, paying $14 million to a reliever is too much especially when you have to give up a first round pick to do it, but I'm a big fan of this "going for it" thing and I'd say they're in pretty decent shape. At least until they shutdown Strasburg after 190 innings this year because, you know, you can never be too careful.
3. Butler Bulldogs. I don't know if it's Brad Stevens or what (NOTE: it's probably Brad Stevens) but Butler just keeps on going. When they made those back-to-back NCAA Championship games you kind of figured like, ok he found a few diamonds in the rough in Gordon Hayward, Shelvin Mack, and Matt Howard (really rough, in his case) and Stevens got them to perfectly come together for a magical run (or two) and then they'd go back to being Butler. When they missed the NCAA Tournament (made the CBI) last season everything looked confirmed. But now? First Stevens gets Rotnei Clarke, and ultra-experienced deadeye shooter who fits Butler's system perfectly, to come to Indy, joining a couple of decent players, and you figure Butler would probably be decent. Little did you know Clarke was going to play out of his mind and a couple promising youngsters would suddenly blossom into double-digit scorers. Then Clarke gets hurt against Richmond and you'd think Butler would slide, but they had no issue finishing up Richmond, and then played a really, really good Gonzaga team and did this:
I hate teams that are always good because I'm so unfamiliar with it. It's like an Amish who was dropped in Dubai.
4. Florida Gators. For my money, there are six teams (seven if you count my super sleeper VCU) who could potentially win the NCAA Championship this year - Louisville, Syracuse, Michigan, Indiana, Duke, and the sixth is Florida. For some reason they're only ranked 10th. Why? Because they have two losses, although those happen to be at Arizona (a one-loss team) in a game Florida controlled for 38 minutes before letting it slip away, and against a good Kansas State in Kansas City. Look at their recent results. After a week of dominating fools they've now won their four SEC games by 33 (vs. Georgia), 22 (@ LSU), 21 (@ Texas A&M), and 31 (vs. Missouri). I know Mizzou is in kind of a tailspin right now with Bowers hurt and Dixon having been kicked off the team, but beating that team by 31 is still damn impressive. Florida is one of the few teams in the country with a great offense and a great defense, with great players both on the perimeter and in the paint. I feel pretty effing good having gotten down on them at 12-1 to win the whole thing. Don't think, just do it.
5. Syracuse Orangemen. I've touted Louisville as my #1 team in the country so I need to give credit to the Orange for taking them down on the road, and actually this was the game that convinced me to put Cuse in that "could win the title" group because they played great in a tough environment. I have no idea why Syracuse has kind of been under my radar, but I assume it's because I'm an idiot. They're loaded at guard and play two point guards in Brandon Triche and Michael Carter-Williams, which they can get away with because they're 6-4 and 6-6, and an awesome front court that includes two great scorers (C.J. Fair and James Southerland) and a defensive superstar (Rakeem Christmas). Their only loss was to Temple at MSG, and they now have probably the best win of anyone this season with that roadie vs. the #1 team to legitimize them. They do have a big issue hanging over them with Southerland's indefinite suspension due to some kind of academic issue, but I would assume he'll be back soon enough given that Syracuse is a big time hoops school and so the administrators probably understand it's best to get him back on the court.
Stupid Joel Maturi.
WHO SUCKED
1. Gopher basketball. I'm not giving up on the season, thinking they suck, or anything like that. I mean they have three losses this season and they're all to teams that have been ranked in the top 3 this season, and only the Duke game was a double digit loss. What sucks, and why I have to put the Gophers here, is that I'm having trouble imagining them as a Final Four team anymore, simply because there have been stretches in all three losses where they've been absolutely dominated, and the domination wasn't for a short period of time but a very long one. Michigan outscored them 20-7 over a 7 minute period, Indiana had that entire first half, and Duke pretty much controlled the whole game. For much of this year I had considered the Gophers to be a possible Final Four contending team and maybe the best Gopher team of my life. That seems laughable now, as I'm fairly certain the '97 team would crush these guys.
That's not to say this can't be a very good year. I'm picturing the team now as a top 5 finisher in the Big 10 with like a 5 seed and a decent shot to make the Sweet 16. Wouldn't we all have taken that coming into the season? Of course we would have. By any measure (for the Gopher program) that's a successful season, it's just that it felt like the bar had been raised and that this might be a special team, rather than a very good one. It's hard to feel that way anymore after watching Michigan completely outclass them on their own court. Hopefully they can sweet these next four winnable games and I can feel a bit better, and even though I know this is a really good Gopher team it's hard not to feel a bit of a gut punch here. It's not the losses, it's the way they lost. Hopefully they learn and move on. I'm also now extremely terrified of going to Northwestern.
2. Los Angeles Lakers. I know I'm not exactly breaking new ground here because I think everyone is aware of the Lakers' struggles, but holy crap you guys. Anybody who ever watched sports new their might be an adjustment period bringing in Nash to play with a guy who dominates the ball like Kobe (similar to the LeBron/Wade pairing initially) but even if it took them a while to get it figured out with complimentary players like Dwight Howard and Pau Gasol you'd expect them, worst case, to end up being a very dangerous low seed in the playoffs as they finally figured it out. One problem - they're not figuring it out, and at 17-23 are in severe danger of missing the playoffs after losing to Toronto on Sunday (TORONTO!!) thanks in part to Howard getting booted for picking up two technicals. They've now lost eight of their last ten, and count losses to the Raptors, Cavs, Magic, and the Kings among their failures this year - those are some bad teams. Normally I would be enjoying this immensely, but I just acquired Kobe for my Fantasy NBA team and so now I don't hate him as much.
3. Jordan Hulls. So let me get this straight, the Underpants Gnome plays out of his mind against the Gophers but then plays like a total asshole against Wisconsin? And don't you dare credit Wisconsin for this either, because he was just total garbage who couldn't shoot, only bothered to take 1 three-pointer (seriously with that range he only attempted one? First time all year), and turned the ball over like he was giving it away for Valentine's Day to some handsome man. Plus he was outplayed by Ben Brust who sucks. And what was with Indiana doubling down on Ryan freaking Evans on the block? Just let him go to work, you'll be better off letting him shoot. The only possible explanations for this game was that Indiana felt invincible after beating the Gophers and forgot to try or Jordan Hulls threw the game. Also, why do I have so much trouble spelling invincible? Everything about this has my brain scrambled like Kevin Burleson trying to break a press.
4. Matt Ryan. I thought Ryan was getting a little too much heat for never having won a playoff game (probably because the Matty Ice nickname is so annoying) but it's hard to find a way to not blame that game on Ryan (with a major assist to the defense). I'll even forgive him the pick because Roddy White fell down, but there were plenty of unforgivable mistakes. The fumbled shot gun snap that San Fran recovered which hit him perfectly in the hands and not picking up a single first down after recovering the Crabtree fumble (giving the Niners great field position after a shitty punt) were both pretty awful, but Ryan saved his worst for the biggest play of the game. On that fourth down inside the 10 he forced the ball to a non-open White, never bothering to look at any other receive and thus missing an absolutely wide open Tony Gonzalez who had slipped behind the linebackers and there wasn't a safety over the top - easy TD. I should feel good about this loss because the Falcons screwed over the Vikings in '98, but I hate Jim Harbaugh, Ray Lewis, and the Patriots so Atlanta was my only chance to enjoy the Super Bowl. Hopefully they'll be good food.
5. Seattle Mariners. If I'm going to praise the Nationals for making a good move, I gotta point out that the Mariners apparently are assembling a softball team or something. After acquiring Michael Morse in the above mentioned trade, they now have all these guys: Morse, Raul Ibanez, Jason Bay, Kendrys Morales, Justin Smoak, and Jesus Montero. Which means that even if they plan to give Montero another shot to be a catcher (LOL) they've still got five mostly immobile types to try to shoehorn into a lineup. That means something like Montero at C, Ibanez in LF, Morse in RF, Morales at 1b, and either Smoak or Bay at DH with the other coming off the bench? Ibanez and Morse as two of your 3 outfielders? Franklin Gutierrez is very good, but he's not that good. I guess the real point is why even trade for Morse? Even if they've given up on Smoak (and if they have they should trade him to the Twins because I STILL BELIEVE DAMMIT) acquiring Morse brings nothing to you that you don't already have, and by trading John Jaso to do it you've severely downgraded your defense going to Montero, but they don't really have another choice because, again, they have way to many slow RF/DH/1b types to fit Montero's bat in any other way. Seattle has the potential for a pretty kick-ass future (seriously their minor league pitchers are top shelf) but if they keep fucking up the present like this it's not going to matter. Those Nintendo guys haven't done anything baseball-related right since Baseball Stars. Remember Baseball Stars 2? What were they thinking?
You'll notice I had the prudence to not write about this whole Manti Te'o thing because let's be honest, it's pretty played out at this point. Was a pretty good day on twitter, though. I also didn't write about hockey because it's a sport for cretins. See you soon with a preview of the Northwestern game. Or maybe just a link to the one I wrote like a week ago. Jesus aren't they supposed to space these games out?
Ha ha just kidding. I don't care.
WHO WAS AWESOME
1. Joe Flacco. As much as I hate to give credit when it's due, I'm going to have to in Flacco's case because he had a great game getting the Ravens to the Super Bowl and outplayed Tom Brady to do it. He seems to have developed a couple interesting skills to go with one of the strongest arms in the league - he can pick apart a defense underneath using his backs and TEs, and he has that over the shoulder throw to Boldin in the end zone down cold. Both of his touchdown throws to Boldin were on that same play, and more than half his completions were to backs or tight ends, and then he can cut loose with that big arm to Torrey Smith when needed. It will be kind of interesting to see how he adjusts in the red zone when the 49ers inevitably put a safety on top of Boldin when they get close. I also just realized this is going to be a Harbaugh vs. Harbaugh Super Bowl and we're going to have to hear that over and over and over again. Oh god, and also Ray Lewis. And I have a feeling Colin Kaepernick is going to get way too much press, too. God I am suddenly remembering how much I hate the 2 weeks leading up to the Super Bowl. Don't they have some kind of 2-week coma drug? I know the wife and kids probably wouldn't be down for me going in that direction, but I'm not sure I have a choice. Not my fault.
2. Washington Nationals. In a baseball hot stove league that's been characterized by teams "going for it in their window" more than any other I can remember (Baltimore Orioles exempted, for some reason) the Nats just made another move that put them in the Dodgers/Blue Jays tier for "going for it" signing closer Rafael Soriano to a two year, $28 million deal with an option that automatically vests if he finishes 120 combined games in the two years. That now gives the Nationals a bullpen of Tyler Clippard in the 7th, Drew Storen in the 8th, and Soriano in the 9th, and that's in front of a rotation of Stephen Strasburg/Gio Gonzalez/Jordan Zimmermann/Dan Haren/Ross Detwiler. Their also loaded with a young and talented lineup with only one bad contract (Jayson Werth), Wilson Ramos will be back at catcher, they traded for Denard Span to fill their only real lineup leak, and resigned Adam LaRoche to a reasonable contract which gives them an excellent trade chip (Michael Morse, now a back-up who was just traded to Seattle in a three-way deal that brought them a couple decent prospects because lord knows they don't have enough) all at the same time. Yes, paying $14 million to a reliever is too much especially when you have to give up a first round pick to do it, but I'm a big fan of this "going for it" thing and I'd say they're in pretty decent shape. At least until they shutdown Strasburg after 190 innings this year because, you know, you can never be too careful.
3. Butler Bulldogs. I don't know if it's Brad Stevens or what (NOTE: it's probably Brad Stevens) but Butler just keeps on going. When they made those back-to-back NCAA Championship games you kind of figured like, ok he found a few diamonds in the rough in Gordon Hayward, Shelvin Mack, and Matt Howard (really rough, in his case) and Stevens got them to perfectly come together for a magical run (or two) and then they'd go back to being Butler. When they missed the NCAA Tournament (made the CBI) last season everything looked confirmed. But now? First Stevens gets Rotnei Clarke, and ultra-experienced deadeye shooter who fits Butler's system perfectly, to come to Indy, joining a couple of decent players, and you figure Butler would probably be decent. Little did you know Clarke was going to play out of his mind and a couple promising youngsters would suddenly blossom into double-digit scorers. Then Clarke gets hurt against Richmond and you'd think Butler would slide, but they had no issue finishing up Richmond, and then played a really, really good Gonzaga team and did this:
I hate teams that are always good because I'm so unfamiliar with it. It's like an Amish who was dropped in Dubai.
4. Florida Gators. For my money, there are six teams (seven if you count my super sleeper VCU) who could potentially win the NCAA Championship this year - Louisville, Syracuse, Michigan, Indiana, Duke, and the sixth is Florida. For some reason they're only ranked 10th. Why? Because they have two losses, although those happen to be at Arizona (a one-loss team) in a game Florida controlled for 38 minutes before letting it slip away, and against a good Kansas State in Kansas City. Look at their recent results. After a week of dominating fools they've now won their four SEC games by 33 (vs. Georgia), 22 (@ LSU), 21 (@ Texas A&M), and 31 (vs. Missouri). I know Mizzou is in kind of a tailspin right now with Bowers hurt and Dixon having been kicked off the team, but beating that team by 31 is still damn impressive. Florida is one of the few teams in the country with a great offense and a great defense, with great players both on the perimeter and in the paint. I feel pretty effing good having gotten down on them at 12-1 to win the whole thing. Don't think, just do it.
5. Syracuse Orangemen. I've touted Louisville as my #1 team in the country so I need to give credit to the Orange for taking them down on the road, and actually this was the game that convinced me to put Cuse in that "could win the title" group because they played great in a tough environment. I have no idea why Syracuse has kind of been under my radar, but I assume it's because I'm an idiot. They're loaded at guard and play two point guards in Brandon Triche and Michael Carter-Williams, which they can get away with because they're 6-4 and 6-6, and an awesome front court that includes two great scorers (C.J. Fair and James Southerland) and a defensive superstar (Rakeem Christmas). Their only loss was to Temple at MSG, and they now have probably the best win of anyone this season with that roadie vs. the #1 team to legitimize them. They do have a big issue hanging over them with Southerland's indefinite suspension due to some kind of academic issue, but I would assume he'll be back soon enough given that Syracuse is a big time hoops school and so the administrators probably understand it's best to get him back on the court.
Stupid Joel Maturi.
WHO SUCKED
1. Gopher basketball. I'm not giving up on the season, thinking they suck, or anything like that. I mean they have three losses this season and they're all to teams that have been ranked in the top 3 this season, and only the Duke game was a double digit loss. What sucks, and why I have to put the Gophers here, is that I'm having trouble imagining them as a Final Four team anymore, simply because there have been stretches in all three losses where they've been absolutely dominated, and the domination wasn't for a short period of time but a very long one. Michigan outscored them 20-7 over a 7 minute period, Indiana had that entire first half, and Duke pretty much controlled the whole game. For much of this year I had considered the Gophers to be a possible Final Four contending team and maybe the best Gopher team of my life. That seems laughable now, as I'm fairly certain the '97 team would crush these guys.
That's not to say this can't be a very good year. I'm picturing the team now as a top 5 finisher in the Big 10 with like a 5 seed and a decent shot to make the Sweet 16. Wouldn't we all have taken that coming into the season? Of course we would have. By any measure (for the Gopher program) that's a successful season, it's just that it felt like the bar had been raised and that this might be a special team, rather than a very good one. It's hard to feel that way anymore after watching Michigan completely outclass them on their own court. Hopefully they can sweet these next four winnable games and I can feel a bit better, and even though I know this is a really good Gopher team it's hard not to feel a bit of a gut punch here. It's not the losses, it's the way they lost. Hopefully they learn and move on. I'm also now extremely terrified of going to Northwestern.
2. Los Angeles Lakers. I know I'm not exactly breaking new ground here because I think everyone is aware of the Lakers' struggles, but holy crap you guys. Anybody who ever watched sports new their might be an adjustment period bringing in Nash to play with a guy who dominates the ball like Kobe (similar to the LeBron/Wade pairing initially) but even if it took them a while to get it figured out with complimentary players like Dwight Howard and Pau Gasol you'd expect them, worst case, to end up being a very dangerous low seed in the playoffs as they finally figured it out. One problem - they're not figuring it out, and at 17-23 are in severe danger of missing the playoffs after losing to Toronto on Sunday (TORONTO!!) thanks in part to Howard getting booted for picking up two technicals. They've now lost eight of their last ten, and count losses to the Raptors, Cavs, Magic, and the Kings among their failures this year - those are some bad teams. Normally I would be enjoying this immensely, but I just acquired Kobe for my Fantasy NBA team and so now I don't hate him as much.
3. Jordan Hulls. So let me get this straight, the Underpants Gnome plays out of his mind against the Gophers but then plays like a total asshole against Wisconsin? And don't you dare credit Wisconsin for this either, because he was just total garbage who couldn't shoot, only bothered to take 1 three-pointer (seriously with that range he only attempted one? First time all year), and turned the ball over like he was giving it away for Valentine's Day to some handsome man. Plus he was outplayed by Ben Brust who sucks. And what was with Indiana doubling down on Ryan freaking Evans on the block? Just let him go to work, you'll be better off letting him shoot. The only possible explanations for this game was that Indiana felt invincible after beating the Gophers and forgot to try or Jordan Hulls threw the game. Also, why do I have so much trouble spelling invincible? Everything about this has my brain scrambled like Kevin Burleson trying to break a press.
4. Matt Ryan. I thought Ryan was getting a little too much heat for never having won a playoff game (probably because the Matty Ice nickname is so annoying) but it's hard to find a way to not blame that game on Ryan (with a major assist to the defense). I'll even forgive him the pick because Roddy White fell down, but there were plenty of unforgivable mistakes. The fumbled shot gun snap that San Fran recovered which hit him perfectly in the hands and not picking up a single first down after recovering the Crabtree fumble (giving the Niners great field position after a shitty punt) were both pretty awful, but Ryan saved his worst for the biggest play of the game. On that fourth down inside the 10 he forced the ball to a non-open White, never bothering to look at any other receive and thus missing an absolutely wide open Tony Gonzalez who had slipped behind the linebackers and there wasn't a safety over the top - easy TD. I should feel good about this loss because the Falcons screwed over the Vikings in '98, but I hate Jim Harbaugh, Ray Lewis, and the Patriots so Atlanta was my only chance to enjoy the Super Bowl. Hopefully they'll be good food.
5. Seattle Mariners. If I'm going to praise the Nationals for making a good move, I gotta point out that the Mariners apparently are assembling a softball team or something. After acquiring Michael Morse in the above mentioned trade, they now have all these guys: Morse, Raul Ibanez, Jason Bay, Kendrys Morales, Justin Smoak, and Jesus Montero. Which means that even if they plan to give Montero another shot to be a catcher (LOL) they've still got five mostly immobile types to try to shoehorn into a lineup. That means something like Montero at C, Ibanez in LF, Morse in RF, Morales at 1b, and either Smoak or Bay at DH with the other coming off the bench? Ibanez and Morse as two of your 3 outfielders? Franklin Gutierrez is very good, but he's not that good. I guess the real point is why even trade for Morse? Even if they've given up on Smoak (and if they have they should trade him to the Twins because I STILL BELIEVE DAMMIT) acquiring Morse brings nothing to you that you don't already have, and by trading John Jaso to do it you've severely downgraded your defense going to Montero, but they don't really have another choice because, again, they have way to many slow RF/DH/1b types to fit Montero's bat in any other way. Seattle has the potential for a pretty kick-ass future (seriously their minor league pitchers are top shelf) but if they keep fucking up the present like this it's not going to matter. Those Nintendo guys haven't done anything baseball-related right since Baseball Stars. Remember Baseball Stars 2? What were they thinking?
You'll notice I had the prudence to not write about this whole Manti Te'o thing because let's be honest, it's pretty played out at this point. Was a pretty good day on twitter, though. I also didn't write about hockey because it's a sport for cretins. See you soon with a preview of the Northwestern game. Or maybe just a link to the one I wrote like a week ago. Jesus aren't they supposed to space these games out?
Tuesday, November 6, 2012
DWG College Basketball Preview: Teams #11-7
Apparently the lastest news, apart from some kind of election or something that is going on, is that the Twins are apparently interested in trading for James Shields of the Rays. I'm not sure I'm buying that this team would do such a drastic move but that would be pretty sweet. If they trade for Shields and sign someone like Brandon McCarthy or Edwin Jackson suddenly everything looks a whole lot better. Then your rotation is Shields/McCarthy or Jackson/Diamond/Baker and then that whole mess of young dorks. I feel pretty good about throwing all those guys into a competition for the fifth starter, especially as compared to needed three of them to be in the rotation as we stand now.
And what would it take to get Shields? Denard Span at a minimum, but with the Rays needed to shed Shields salary and Span's contract is so team friendly through 2015 they might be willing to do it for just him, especially since they're expecting B.J. Upton to sign elsewhere so they'll need a CF. I'm willing to give up Span as much as I like him just because Ben Revere's skill set is so close to his so losing Span doesn't really hurt that much. The other rumor is they might want either Parmelee or Morneau as well to fill that black hole at first that is Carlos Pena, and I'd be fine giving up either to get Shields. I'd be a little bit surprised if they want Morneau because of his salary, but if they can talk the Twins into picking up a chunk of his money then it could happen. Either way making that trade significantly upgrades the rotation without hurting the lineup too much, so it's got to happen. Which means it won't.
On to the stuff:
11. Ohio State Buckeyes. I don't really get the high ranking for Ohio State in all the polls. To be honest, I think 11 is a little bit high but I don't want to look like too big of an idiot and have them at 20 or something. I know DeShaun Thomas is a scoring machine and I know Aaron Craft is a very, very good on ball defender, but beyond that everything is a mystery. Can Craft excel when he has to be more the focal point of the offense? Will that make his defense suffer? Can Lenzelle Smith stop shooting bricks and become the scorer and shooter the Buckeyes need? Sam Thompson and Amir Williams certainly have the pedigree to become stars or at least quality starters, but will they? They're about to go from benchwarmer minutes to starters. There's a shit load of other guys here too who have really impressive high school stats and good rankings when they came out, but they haven't proven anything. Maybe Ohio State will be really good and be a Final Four contender yet again, but there are just way too many questions for me to have them in my top 10, let alone top 5. Ask Jonathan Bender, Charles Rogers, and Brien Taylor about potential.
10. Missouri Tigers. I just read a thing on ESPN where they said the Tigers have the best back court in America and you know how much I love guards. Mizzou would normally be in tough straights losing four starters off of last year's squad, but for whatever reason they've become a transfer haven lately and should be a getting a massive boost. They will once again be mainly perimeter oriented, but Alex Oriakhi is in from UCONN and Laurence Bowers is back after an ACL injury that caused him to miss all of last season and those two alone are some considerable talent up front. They have maybe the most fun PG to watch in the country (outside Andre Hollins of course) back in Phil Pressey as well as last year's sixth man Michael Dixon and add a whole mess of talented wing guys from Oregon, Auburn, and Pepperdine. That, my friends, is a well built, well balanced team who is also going to run the hell out of you. So much fun to watch. There's a reason why I have a Missouri sweatshirt. Mainly because it was $7 at Barry & Steve's. RIP.
9. Florida Gators. The Gators are similar to Missouri in that they are perimeter oriented and I own or once owned a $7 sweatshirt from Barry & Steve's of them, but while Missouri probably has more questions the Gators might be looking at the biggest question: who replaces Erving Walker? Yeah, Bradley Beal is gone to the NBA and he was a bigger scorer than Walker, but Mike Rosario (former Rutgers dude and a big-time recruit) should be just fine stepping in, while Walker has been the team's starting PG for the last four years and there's no obvious replacement. Kenny Boynton could slide over but he really, really loves to shoot (although in fairness so did Walker). The other choices are a freshman (#7 PG frosh in the country by ESPN but still) or a junior who averaged just 15 minutes and 2.6 ppg last season. As long as they figure that out they'll be a Final Four candidate because they're loaded with talent, and since Billy Donovan is a disciple of college basketball coaching jesus I'm sure the Gators will be just fine. I really wish I knew what I did with that damn sweatshirt. I want to wear it when they make the Final Four.
8. Duke Blue Devils. More like Puke, am I right? I think I made that joke last year, but I, like the majority of America, just really dislike these guys. Partially it's the overall douchbaggery, partially it's the entitlement, partially it's the reverence the national media bestows upon them, partially it's the constant whining of their rat-faced coach, and partially it's that they have a little floor-slapping weiner named Wojo as their big man coach. Oh, you weren't aware? Yes, Floppy McDiveonfloor himself is Duke's big man coach. Suddenly it seems less of a wonder that they haven't had a good big man since Elton Brand when the guy who is supposed to be developing all this front line talent (and they still get the talent, it just never develops) is busy teaching them how to draw charges and miss three pointers. Hopefully that never changes. In conclusion, Duke will be pretty good all year and then lose in the first or second round of the tournament and America will once again rejoice amen.
7. Kentucky Wildcats. How exactly do you write about a team that has turned over it's entire roster? Oh yeah, Kyle Wiltjer is back and is supposed to be pretty good and stuff. Ryan Harrow will be the starting PG this year and I remember him from his NC State days, he was pretty good. And the rest is transfers, guys who didn't play last year, and freshmen. And yes, once again they're a really good group of recruits and next year is shaping up to be even stronger. Say what you will about Calipari, like that if he and an orange were having a coaching battle I'd take Cal but I'd have to think about it, but he figured the game out before anyone else. While most coaches were fighting the one-and-done culture and trying to figure out how to get kids to stay he embraced it and made it part of his team's model to the point where he can nearly pick and choose his recruits knowing that Calipari and Kentucky will embrace the fact that he'll only be there for a single season. That, as well as Calipari's record with getting the most from his kids in that single year and getting them drafted, is awfully attractive for that very top tier talent. He's made it work, he beat everyone else to it, and now he's got a dynasty on his hands and there's no reason to think it's going to stop any time soon. You've got to give him credit for that. I will now go wander into rush hour traffic.
Previous:
Teams #68-60
Teams #59-53
Teams #52-47
Teams #46-39
Teams #38-34
Teams #33-26
Teams #25-20
Team #19 (GOPHERS)
Teams #18-12
And what would it take to get Shields? Denard Span at a minimum, but with the Rays needed to shed Shields salary and Span's contract is so team friendly through 2015 they might be willing to do it for just him, especially since they're expecting B.J. Upton to sign elsewhere so they'll need a CF. I'm willing to give up Span as much as I like him just because Ben Revere's skill set is so close to his so losing Span doesn't really hurt that much. The other rumor is they might want either Parmelee or Morneau as well to fill that black hole at first that is Carlos Pena, and I'd be fine giving up either to get Shields. I'd be a little bit surprised if they want Morneau because of his salary, but if they can talk the Twins into picking up a chunk of his money then it could happen. Either way making that trade significantly upgrades the rotation without hurting the lineup too much, so it's got to happen. Which means it won't.
On to the stuff:
Previous:
Teams #68-60
Teams #59-53
Teams #52-47
Teams #46-39
Teams #38-34
Teams #33-26
Teams #25-20
Team #19 (GOPHERS)
Teams #18-12
Monday, February 27, 2012
Week in Review: 2-27/2012
I have no idea what to say or how to say it. We've been down this road again and again and written this same recap again and again. That was just an embarrassing loss, particularly when the season was on the line (as thin as that line may have been) and it was a home game against a team you've already beaten on the road. To get absolutely blown out in a must-win home game sends pretty much the loudest message possible to the committee that you don't belong in the NCAA Tournament. Even winning out the last two and making a run to the conference tournament final probably isn't enough anymore, but we don't really have to worry about it because there is zero chance this team can win at Wisconsin. They've checked out.
I don't think they've checked out on Tubby, but they've certainly checked out on this season. The body language says it all, and Ralph's 1-11 shooting performance on Sunday basically sums it up. This is a defeated team, and Tubby feels it as well. At this point these two games need to just end, then lose in the first round of the b10 tourney, and start planning for next year. It's clear the players just want this season to end, and I can't blame them because it's been miserable these last couple of weeks. But I'm not on the fire Tubby bandwagon, even if I've been critical of his game coaching abilities. I remain critical of those, but he deserves one more year, but it's a make or break year. If there's another season that goes similarly to this one, it's time to move on. The important thing is to build a program, and if he misses another NCAA Tournament, well, there's no building going on. One more year, Tubby. Show us why we were all excited when the hiring was initially announced. This is just sad.
I mean, look at Notre Dame this year. Both the Gophers and Notre Dame received exactly one 25th place vote in a poll to start the season (Gophers in the AP, Notre Dame in the coaches). Both teams lost their best player for the year, a senior power forward, early in the season (like Mbakwe for the Gophers, Tim Abromaitis led the team in both scoring and rebounding when he went down). Neither team had any kind of real impact freshman coming in, so post-injury both schools looked to be in trouble. But, where the Gophers have struggled and floundered and canceled out any flashes of brilliance with some terrible outings, Notre Dame has played together, executed well consistently, and completely bought in to Mike Brey's system and is 20-10 overall, 12-5 in the Big East, and a lock for the tournament. Look at these two teams. It's hard to say Notre Dame is significantly more talented, if at all, than the Gophers, and yet look at the results. Unsettling, at best.
We move on....
WHO WAS AWESOME
1. Iowa State Cyclones. Well, for those of you out there who were complete idiots and were saying Fred Hoiberg was some kind of moron for collected talented yet troubled transfers (and you know who you are) how about you pour some Bacardi 151 in your butthole and chase it with a match? Because Iowa State just won at Kansas State - the same K-State who just beat both Baylor and Missouri on the road - to move to 11-5 in Big 12 play and 21-8 overall. They're now tied for 4th with Baylor in the Conference and have now 100% locked up an NCAA bid. While the Gophers need a miracle. I'm moving to Ames. Plus they got craps there.
2. Purdue Boilermakers. While every other Big 10 team who was chasing a bid goes down faster than your mom on prom night, Purdue is taking a stand and doing what needs to be done like full grown men. I'm just kidding about that sentence by the way, it's intentionally douchey (except for the mom joke, that's all me). Anyway, while everyone else is pooping on their heads, Purdue went into Ann Arbor and beat Michigan, a team that was undefeated at home this year, was ranked #11 in the polls, #10 in the RPI, and #21 in kenpom's ratings. That, my friends, is the definition of a signature win and puts Purdue firmly into tournament lock status. And you know how they won? Because Terone Johnson shot 9-12 for 22 points and carried the offense. You know the last time an unsung-y Gopher like Johnson stepped up to carry the team to a victory? Caddyshack. Cue rimshot.
3. Kansas Jayhawks. I kind of feel like I've been underrating the Jayhawks all year, mainly because they're a two-man show and also because I hate them and have hated them since that little wiener Jeff Boschee was running around being wienery. But they're about to win the Big 12 for the 9th straight year* after beating Missouri, and that win was a freaking ballsy ass win because they were down 19 and came back against an incredibly good team. And Thomas Robinson? Holy hell is this guy good. He's nearly flawless in the low post, and because Missouri only has one low-post kind of defender in Ricardo Ratliffe (who, by the way, is completely awesome in his own way) they chose to single cover Robinson all game and he put on a clinic. Now, this is hyperbole of the biggest fashion so don't jump down my throat, but watching him I actually was reminded of Hakeem Olajuwon. I know, I know, but I was. I can't help it. Guy's legit.
4. Miami Hurricanes. I've said it before and I'll say it again, I'm always impressed with teams on the Bubble who go out and get that big home win that they need (mainly because I don't know if I've ever seen it from my favorite team), and Miami did just that this weekend, taking down the #16 Seminoles 78-62 to jump up and likely grab themselves and NCAA bid. Most impressive is that they did it without starting center and double-double guy Reggie Johnson, who was ruled ineligible by the NCAA due to some minor infractions that will hopefully be resolved quickly. Not to mention that even without him they managed to put up 78 points on the usually defensively studly Seminoles, the first time a team has scored that much on them since January 7th. Pretty sure Miami sucks and won't win a game in the tourney, but at least they're most likely going to make it.
5. South Florida Bulls. Speaking of college teams from the state of Florida who picked up huge wins with bubble ramifications over the weekend, USF knocked off fellow bubble team Cincinnati on Sunday and can pretty officially no longer be ignored. The game wasn't pretty with the Bulls winning 46-45, both teams having just one player score in double figures, and the two teams combined to shoot 6-30 from 3-point land, but USF did what they needed to do and got a big victory. South Florida is now 11-5 in the Big East, has bumped their RPI up to 45 (right behind K-State), and now has a 4-1 record against teams between 40-100 in the RPI. Of course, they are also 0-7 vs. the RPI top 40 and have three losses against sub-100 teams, but closing out the season at 11-4 is pretty solid. You'd have to think if they can finish out 1-1 (@Louisville, vs. WVU) and then win their Big East Tourny opener they'd be in - a far cry from the team that started the year 7-7 and lost to Penn State (among other craptastic squads).
WHO SUCKED
1. Seton Hall Pirates. Are you shitting me Seton Hall? So they beat Georgetown for one of the most meaningful bubble wins this year and it's all like oh hell yes sweet what a great win awesome to see a team actually step up when they have to. And how do they follow it up? By losing at home to freaking Rutgers. Rutgers of the four conference wins and #149 RPI. Seriously, I mean if this doesn't completely wipe out all the good they did by beating the Hoyas it's damn close. I swear to god this is exactly what I expect from the Gophers or Northwestern, not a real team from the Big East. Shaheen Holloway is probably rolling over in his sports grave.
2. West Virginia Mountaineers. Even though there are plenty of teams doing everything they can to avoid getting invited to the NCAA Tournament, I don't know if anybody is doing a better job of tanking than West Virginia. On January 21 they were 15-5 and 5-2 in the Big East after beating Cincinnati. Since then they've gone 2-7 (with one of the wins taking overtime to beat Providence). This week may have been the worst, first going to Notre Dame and getting beat by 30, then taking on a Marquette squad that suspended three starters for the first half, building an 11-point half-time lead, and then blowing it and losing by one. A team that looked like an easy lock for the NCAA Tournament a month ago is now completely floundering, and with just games vs. DePaul and @ South Florida left a 2-0 finish is now an absolute must, and they might need a win or two in the Big East Tournament to get in. Seriously, if Huggins is going to find a way to cheat he might as well get started pretty quick.
3. Florida Gators. Jeez this seems like a very Florida-y week in review, which I guess is kind of appropriate since I'm going to Florida for a family vacation starting next Tuesday and that's kind of on my mind, but it's been a very Florda-centric week for being awesome and sucking so here we are. Anyway, the Gators continue to show how vulnerable they are because of their reliance on the perimeter jumper, and Georgia took advantage taking them down 76-62 with the Gators shooting just 5-23 from three. 39% of Florida's points come from three-pointers, the 3rd most in the country, and 44.6% of their shot attempts come from behind the arc (6th in the nation). Even though they do shoot them well (39.4%, 16th in the country) relying on something that can disappear in any given game, combined with a pretty bad defense (94th in Defensive efficiency) is a recipe for any early March exit.
4. Ohio State Buckeyes. Obviously there are varying degrees of sucking because I would kill your mother if it meant the Gophers would even approach Ohio State's success, but for a team that was/is supposed to be a national title contender there are some major concerns right now, with Ohio State 2-3 in their last five games including two home losses (to Michigan State and Wisconsin, but still). The Buckeyes were supposed to cruise to a Big 10 title and even with Michigan State having a tremendous year they should still be the class of the conference, but all of a sudden they're showing a whole bunch of chinks in their armor (wait, are we allowed to say that?) Buford has just been plain off most of the year, Craft hasn't turned into anything on the offensive end, and suddenly Sullinger is disappearing in games (17 total points in the last two, plus 1-7 from the free throw line when he's a 74% shooter this season). Still plenty of talent here and they're probably still one of the 10 best teams in the country, but suddenly an early round loss in the tournament doesn't seem like the impossibility it once did.
5. Cal Golden Bears. I don't know why I obsess about the Pac-10's mediocrity so much, but it's just mind boggling that a conference with schools like UCLA, USC, Washington, Cal, etc. can be so bad at basketball for so long. Every year there's a point where it looks like the Pac-12 might only get one bid, and although I don't think it's actually happened yet it's amazing how close it gets every year. And once again this season just when it looks like both Cal and Washington are safe, Cal goes out and gets destroyed by Colorado 70-57. Both Washington and Cal will probably still get in and everything, but jeez man, it's just amazing how much they suck. Also, in a semi-related note, with all the conference realignment going on I think what makes the most sense is for the Gophers to move into the Pac-12. It's common sense, really.
With conference tournaments starting up this week I need to get to work on the small conference tournament previews, so you'll have to do without your pithy outro this week. You know, the outro nobody reads because they've usually bailed on my post halfway through or so because it's too long and/or boring? Yeah, that.
* = I made this up because I was toodrunk tired to actually look it up
I don't think they've checked out on Tubby, but they've certainly checked out on this season. The body language says it all, and Ralph's 1-11 shooting performance on Sunday basically sums it up. This is a defeated team, and Tubby feels it as well. At this point these two games need to just end, then lose in the first round of the b10 tourney, and start planning for next year. It's clear the players just want this season to end, and I can't blame them because it's been miserable these last couple of weeks. But I'm not on the fire Tubby bandwagon, even if I've been critical of his game coaching abilities. I remain critical of those, but he deserves one more year, but it's a make or break year. If there's another season that goes similarly to this one, it's time to move on. The important thing is to build a program, and if he misses another NCAA Tournament, well, there's no building going on. One more year, Tubby. Show us why we were all excited when the hiring was initially announced. This is just sad.
I mean, look at Notre Dame this year. Both the Gophers and Notre Dame received exactly one 25th place vote in a poll to start the season (Gophers in the AP, Notre Dame in the coaches). Both teams lost their best player for the year, a senior power forward, early in the season (like Mbakwe for the Gophers, Tim Abromaitis led the team in both scoring and rebounding when he went down). Neither team had any kind of real impact freshman coming in, so post-injury both schools looked to be in trouble. But, where the Gophers have struggled and floundered and canceled out any flashes of brilliance with some terrible outings, Notre Dame has played together, executed well consistently, and completely bought in to Mike Brey's system and is 20-10 overall, 12-5 in the Big East, and a lock for the tournament. Look at these two teams. It's hard to say Notre Dame is significantly more talented, if at all, than the Gophers, and yet look at the results. Unsettling, at best.
We move on....
WHO WAS AWESOME
1. Iowa State Cyclones. Well, for those of you out there who were complete idiots and were saying Fred Hoiberg was some kind of moron for collected talented yet troubled transfers (and you know who you are) how about you pour some Bacardi 151 in your butthole and chase it with a match? Because Iowa State just won at Kansas State - the same K-State who just beat both Baylor and Missouri on the road - to move to 11-5 in Big 12 play and 21-8 overall. They're now tied for 4th with Baylor in the Conference and have now 100% locked up an NCAA bid. While the Gophers need a miracle. I'm moving to Ames. Plus they got craps there.
2. Purdue Boilermakers. While every other Big 10 team who was chasing a bid goes down faster than your mom on prom night, Purdue is taking a stand and doing what needs to be done like full grown men. I'm just kidding about that sentence by the way, it's intentionally douchey (except for the mom joke, that's all me). Anyway, while everyone else is pooping on their heads, Purdue went into Ann Arbor and beat Michigan, a team that was undefeated at home this year, was ranked #11 in the polls, #10 in the RPI, and #21 in kenpom's ratings. That, my friends, is the definition of a signature win and puts Purdue firmly into tournament lock status. And you know how they won? Because Terone Johnson shot 9-12 for 22 points and carried the offense. You know the last time an unsung-y Gopher like Johnson stepped up to carry the team to a victory? Caddyshack. Cue rimshot.
3. Kansas Jayhawks. I kind of feel like I've been underrating the Jayhawks all year, mainly because they're a two-man show and also because I hate them and have hated them since that little wiener Jeff Boschee was running around being wienery. But they're about to win the Big 12 for the 9th straight year* after beating Missouri, and that win was a freaking ballsy ass win because they were down 19 and came back against an incredibly good team. And Thomas Robinson? Holy hell is this guy good. He's nearly flawless in the low post, and because Missouri only has one low-post kind of defender in Ricardo Ratliffe (who, by the way, is completely awesome in his own way) they chose to single cover Robinson all game and he put on a clinic. Now, this is hyperbole of the biggest fashion so don't jump down my throat, but watching him I actually was reminded of Hakeem Olajuwon. I know, I know, but I was. I can't help it. Guy's legit.
4. Miami Hurricanes. I've said it before and I'll say it again, I'm always impressed with teams on the Bubble who go out and get that big home win that they need (mainly because I don't know if I've ever seen it from my favorite team), and Miami did just that this weekend, taking down the #16 Seminoles 78-62 to jump up and likely grab themselves and NCAA bid. Most impressive is that they did it without starting center and double-double guy Reggie Johnson, who was ruled ineligible by the NCAA due to some minor infractions that will hopefully be resolved quickly. Not to mention that even without him they managed to put up 78 points on the usually defensively studly Seminoles, the first time a team has scored that much on them since January 7th. Pretty sure Miami sucks and won't win a game in the tourney, but at least they're most likely going to make it.
5. South Florida Bulls. Speaking of college teams from the state of Florida who picked up huge wins with bubble ramifications over the weekend, USF knocked off fellow bubble team Cincinnati on Sunday and can pretty officially no longer be ignored. The game wasn't pretty with the Bulls winning 46-45, both teams having just one player score in double figures, and the two teams combined to shoot 6-30 from 3-point land, but USF did what they needed to do and got a big victory. South Florida is now 11-5 in the Big East, has bumped their RPI up to 45 (right behind K-State), and now has a 4-1 record against teams between 40-100 in the RPI. Of course, they are also 0-7 vs. the RPI top 40 and have three losses against sub-100 teams, but closing out the season at 11-4 is pretty solid. You'd have to think if they can finish out 1-1 (@Louisville, vs. WVU) and then win their Big East Tourny opener they'd be in - a far cry from the team that started the year 7-7 and lost to Penn State (among other craptastic squads).
WHO SUCKED
1. Seton Hall Pirates. Are you shitting me Seton Hall? So they beat Georgetown for one of the most meaningful bubble wins this year and it's all like oh hell yes sweet what a great win awesome to see a team actually step up when they have to. And how do they follow it up? By losing at home to freaking Rutgers. Rutgers of the four conference wins and #149 RPI. Seriously, I mean if this doesn't completely wipe out all the good they did by beating the Hoyas it's damn close. I swear to god this is exactly what I expect from the Gophers or Northwestern, not a real team from the Big East. Shaheen Holloway is probably rolling over in his sports grave.
2. West Virginia Mountaineers. Even though there are plenty of teams doing everything they can to avoid getting invited to the NCAA Tournament, I don't know if anybody is doing a better job of tanking than West Virginia. On January 21 they were 15-5 and 5-2 in the Big East after beating Cincinnati. Since then they've gone 2-7 (with one of the wins taking overtime to beat Providence). This week may have been the worst, first going to Notre Dame and getting beat by 30, then taking on a Marquette squad that suspended three starters for the first half, building an 11-point half-time lead, and then blowing it and losing by one. A team that looked like an easy lock for the NCAA Tournament a month ago is now completely floundering, and with just games vs. DePaul and @ South Florida left a 2-0 finish is now an absolute must, and they might need a win or two in the Big East Tournament to get in. Seriously, if Huggins is going to find a way to cheat he might as well get started pretty quick.
3. Florida Gators. Jeez this seems like a very Florida-y week in review, which I guess is kind of appropriate since I'm going to Florida for a family vacation starting next Tuesday and that's kind of on my mind, but it's been a very Florda-centric week for being awesome and sucking so here we are. Anyway, the Gators continue to show how vulnerable they are because of their reliance on the perimeter jumper, and Georgia took advantage taking them down 76-62 with the Gators shooting just 5-23 from three. 39% of Florida's points come from three-pointers, the 3rd most in the country, and 44.6% of their shot attempts come from behind the arc (6th in the nation). Even though they do shoot them well (39.4%, 16th in the country) relying on something that can disappear in any given game, combined with a pretty bad defense (94th in Defensive efficiency) is a recipe for any early March exit.
4. Ohio State Buckeyes. Obviously there are varying degrees of sucking because I would kill your mother if it meant the Gophers would even approach Ohio State's success, but for a team that was/is supposed to be a national title contender there are some major concerns right now, with Ohio State 2-3 in their last five games including two home losses (to Michigan State and Wisconsin, but still). The Buckeyes were supposed to cruise to a Big 10 title and even with Michigan State having a tremendous year they should still be the class of the conference, but all of a sudden they're showing a whole bunch of chinks in their armor (wait, are we allowed to say that?) Buford has just been plain off most of the year, Craft hasn't turned into anything on the offensive end, and suddenly Sullinger is disappearing in games (17 total points in the last two, plus 1-7 from the free throw line when he's a 74% shooter this season). Still plenty of talent here and they're probably still one of the 10 best teams in the country, but suddenly an early round loss in the tournament doesn't seem like the impossibility it once did.
5. Cal Golden Bears. I don't know why I obsess about the Pac-10's mediocrity so much, but it's just mind boggling that a conference with schools like UCLA, USC, Washington, Cal, etc. can be so bad at basketball for so long. Every year there's a point where it looks like the Pac-12 might only get one bid, and although I don't think it's actually happened yet it's amazing how close it gets every year. And once again this season just when it looks like both Cal and Washington are safe, Cal goes out and gets destroyed by Colorado 70-57. Both Washington and Cal will probably still get in and everything, but jeez man, it's just amazing how much they suck. Also, in a semi-related note, with all the conference realignment going on I think what makes the most sense is for the Gophers to move into the Pac-12. It's common sense, really.
With conference tournaments starting up this week I need to get to work on the small conference tournament previews, so you'll have to do without your pithy outro this week. You know, the outro nobody reads because they've usually bailed on my post halfway through or so because it's too long and/or boring? Yeah, that.
* = I made this up because I was too
Sunday, February 12, 2012
Week in Review - 2/13/2011
There are no word about the Gophers, or at least nothing more than a throwaway line here and there, in the below post. Mainly because they didn't play this weekend. I ripped off about 1,200 words after the loss to the dirty dirtball Sconnies, and I don't really feel the need to do it again when nothing has changed. Plus there was only one comment left after that post where I poured out my heart and thoughts and so you asshole don't deserve any more. You're lucky I post at all.
WHO WAS AWESOME
1. Kentucky Wildcats. I'm now starting to think that worrying about Kentucky being a young team and/or having a less than elite in-game coach doesn't really matter because good god thee guys are just not fair. What did Kentucky do this week? Well, they demolished their top contender in the conference by 20 (Florida, more on them later) and then went into Vandy, a pretty tough place to play, and beat the Commodore, probably the third best team in the conference. They've got unstoppable inside scorers (Anthony Davis, Terrence Jones), three-point shooters (Doron Lamb, Darius Miller), slashers (Jones, Michael Gilchrist), shot blockers (Davis, Jones), and lock down perimeter defenders (Miller, Gilchrist). Their "weak link" is point guard Marquis Teague, and he'd be the best player on 90% of college teams. Just sick. I have no idea how they're going to lose in March.
2. Austin Rivers. He's still got too much of a tendency to go one man show, and when he has the ball on the break you know he's taking the shot 80% of the time, but holy crap was Rivers awesome against North Carolina. 29 points with 6 three-pointers and everyone was big, including the game winner right in Tyler Zeller's stupid face. Reading what some fans of both teams have written and this might be the "best" win by Duke in this rivalry, coming at Chapel Hill versus one of UNC's most talented squads, at least in recent memory. And they basically did it because Austin Rivers' decided to breakout. I think going pro after this season will be best for everyone involved because Rivers game is an NBA game and he's struggled trying to adjust playing within the constraints of a tight system rather than, "go get 40 Austin", but man, he is the real deal.
3. Wichita State Shockers. I don't usually like to talk about the Missouri Valley on account of it sucks so bad, but Wichita's win over Creighton this weekend was truly a thing of beauty. See, at the beginning of the year Wichita was supposed to be this year's MVC darling, a team with a shot to knock off some good squads, have a successful conference season, and roll to an easy at-large bid with a chance to make some noise. Then they lost to both Alabama and Temple in Puerto Rico and everybody was like, meh, while Creighton raced out to a 21-2 start and has everyone's darling Doug McDermott and was like Lindsay Lohan stealing everything Rachel McAdams had. But then Wichita went to Creighton and completely destroyed the Blue Jays and no Creighton has lost three straight while Wichita can put this win with their win over UNLV and good computer numbers and are probably more likely to make it at-large than Creighton. So suck on that, Lohan.
4. St. Louis Billikens. I'm guessing reading about St. Louis doesn't exactly rank in the top 5 of anybody's favorite things to do list, but it' rare you see a team take care of business like they have and have jumped from the lower-mid bubble to near the top of it. The Billikens won on the road this week at both St. Joe's and LaSalle, two teams in contention for the Atlantic 10 crown, and now sit at 8-3, just a half game behind Temple, and that followed up a week where they beat St. Bonaventure and Dayton, two other teams towards the top of the A-10. Their non-conference strength of schedule is awful (213 in the country) but they do have win over Washington, Oklahoma, Boston College, and Villanova - not exactly the 1927 Yankees but a better lineup than the Gophers' can show. And they're trending up. Fully expect Majerus to finally be back in the big dance.
5. Cal Bears. Ye, the Pac-10 is still horrible and yes, there's a good chance it's a one bid conference, but that's exactly what makes a team actually going out and doing something worthwhile notable because nobody ever does it in this league. The Bears went on their road trip through Southern California and won at both USC and UCLA (their RPIs are 228 and 121, but remember it's the Pac-10 so we're on a different curve here). This now brings them to 10-3 and 20-6 overall, and at least getting near the middle of the bubble. Oh, and in case you're wondering Justin Cobbs had 28 point and 10 assists in those two wins. (Also noteworthy: Oregon also was 2-0 this week. Devoe had 29 points and 7 assists.) It's so funny I'm going to stab myself in the ankle with the bayonet I have sitting next to the couch.
WHO SUCKED
1. Florida Gators. Bit of a rough one for the Gators and those who at one point listed the Gators as a sleeper Final Four team. First, on Tuesday, the had a big chance to make a statement going into Lexington to play the #1 Kentucky Wildcats and walked out 20-point losers, and then on Saturday they took a home gimme win vs. Tennessee and somehow ended up losing by five. Actually I shouldn't say somehow, because it's pretty obvious than when a team is as dependent on the three-pointer the way Florida is (6th in the country in % of points coming from behind the line) when the shots aren't falling they're screwed. The Gators 17-56 from behind the arc in those two games, significantly worse than their season mark of nearly 40%. And a special shout-out to Erving Walker and Bradley Beal, who, along with Kenny Boynton, are basically the entire team and were 1-11 from 3 against Kentucky and 2-11 against Tennessee. That reliance on the three makes them both a threat to make a run in March and an early upset candidate. Guess I'm going to have to guess right.
2. William Buford. Buford actually had a pretty good game earlier in the week against Purdue (29 points on 10-17 shooting) which hurt the narrative a bit but he's been absolutely awful lately other than that game, and saved one of his worst for their big loss against Sparty, shooting 2-12 with 3 turnover (to 1 assist) for a grand total of 4 points. Looking back, outside of that game against Purdue the last time Buford shot 50% or better in a game was the first game of 2012, and he's shot 29-104 in those games, and has had 29 turnover versus 21 assists. Ohio State is really good and are absolutely a title contender, but if Buford doesn't get it figured out there's no way they're getting past the sweet 16.
3. Baylor Bears. I still like these guys a lot, but after they lost to both Kansas (at home) and Missouri (on the road) this week it might be time to take a harder look. Because they've now been swept by both those teams, and considering there are only three really good teams in the Big 12 (with apologies to Iowa State) that means that Baylor hasn't had a good win in quite some time. There's no doubt they're still a very good team with the resume to prove it (wins over Kansas State, Miss State, West Virginia, St. Mary's, BYU, and San Diego State), but there are alarm bells ringing all over the place after those two sweeps. Worth noting that Perry Jones scored 5 points against Kansas on 1-8 shooting and 4 points on 2-12 shooting against Missouri, which means he's only broken double digit scoring once in four game against these two teams. I'm going to go ahead and not do anymore research and just assume he's a choker in big games. Join me, won't you?
4. The Grammys. I'm thrilled they chose to award the Foo Fighters with basically every award they were up for, but I can't forgive them for slighting Wiz Khalifa for best rap performance and song. You're seriously going to give the Grammy to Jay-Z and "Mail it in" Kanye for Otis over the masterpiece Black & Yellow from Wiz and give the other one to some collaboration with like six singer/rappers? Joke. I suppose I should just be happy it was nominated, but it should have won, but the politics of not giving a grammy to such a power collaboration probably made this inevitable. The grammys used to mean something and be about the music but, much like when they stopped eating the groundhog in Punxatawney, we live in a sissified society. Shame. Check it:
5. Murray State and Harvard. I'm going to lump these two schools together because they both have an outside chance at an at-large berth, both stumbled this weekend (Murray lost to Tennessee State or Tech I'm not sure but I'm not looking it up and Harvard lost to Princeton), and both should probably do everything they can to win their league. Harvard still looks pretty good with only one Ivy loss, and now that I look apparently Murray State is a lock to get an at-large according to ESPN so maybe I'm stupid. I'm sorry, but how exactly are they a lock? Even at 21-1 their RPI is 57 (Gophers are 54, FYI), Strength of schedule is 292, and non-conference strength of schedule is 132. They only have four wins over the RPI top 150, and the two best are over Memphis and Southern Miss whose RPIs are top 25 but everyone know they suck. One more conference loss and I say ship 'em to the NIT. Plus maybe then I'll get to see them live at Williams' Arena, score!
Oh, and in case you're wondering if you missed him, no, I didn't write about Jeremy Lin because oh my god will you people shut up.
WHO WAS AWESOME
1. Kentucky Wildcats. I'm now starting to think that worrying about Kentucky being a young team and/or having a less than elite in-game coach doesn't really matter because good god thee guys are just not fair. What did Kentucky do this week? Well, they demolished their top contender in the conference by 20 (Florida, more on them later) and then went into Vandy, a pretty tough place to play, and beat the Commodore, probably the third best team in the conference. They've got unstoppable inside scorers (Anthony Davis, Terrence Jones), three-point shooters (Doron Lamb, Darius Miller), slashers (Jones, Michael Gilchrist), shot blockers (Davis, Jones), and lock down perimeter defenders (Miller, Gilchrist). Their "weak link" is point guard Marquis Teague, and he'd be the best player on 90% of college teams. Just sick. I have no idea how they're going to lose in March.
2. Austin Rivers. He's still got too much of a tendency to go one man show, and when he has the ball on the break you know he's taking the shot 80% of the time, but holy crap was Rivers awesome against North Carolina. 29 points with 6 three-pointers and everyone was big, including the game winner right in Tyler Zeller's stupid face. Reading what some fans of both teams have written and this might be the "best" win by Duke in this rivalry, coming at Chapel Hill versus one of UNC's most talented squads, at least in recent memory. And they basically did it because Austin Rivers' decided to breakout. I think going pro after this season will be best for everyone involved because Rivers game is an NBA game and he's struggled trying to adjust playing within the constraints of a tight system rather than, "go get 40 Austin", but man, he is the real deal.
3. Wichita State Shockers. I don't usually like to talk about the Missouri Valley on account of it sucks so bad, but Wichita's win over Creighton this weekend was truly a thing of beauty. See, at the beginning of the year Wichita was supposed to be this year's MVC darling, a team with a shot to knock off some good squads, have a successful conference season, and roll to an easy at-large bid with a chance to make some noise. Then they lost to both Alabama and Temple in Puerto Rico and everybody was like, meh, while Creighton raced out to a 21-2 start and has everyone's darling Doug McDermott and was like Lindsay Lohan stealing everything Rachel McAdams had. But then Wichita went to Creighton and completely destroyed the Blue Jays and no Creighton has lost three straight while Wichita can put this win with their win over UNLV and good computer numbers and are probably more likely to make it at-large than Creighton. So suck on that, Lohan.
4. St. Louis Billikens. I'm guessing reading about St. Louis doesn't exactly rank in the top 5 of anybody's favorite things to do list, but it' rare you see a team take care of business like they have and have jumped from the lower-mid bubble to near the top of it. The Billikens won on the road this week at both St. Joe's and LaSalle, two teams in contention for the Atlantic 10 crown, and now sit at 8-3, just a half game behind Temple, and that followed up a week where they beat St. Bonaventure and Dayton, two other teams towards the top of the A-10. Their non-conference strength of schedule is awful (213 in the country) but they do have win over Washington, Oklahoma, Boston College, and Villanova - not exactly the 1927 Yankees but a better lineup than the Gophers' can show. And they're trending up. Fully expect Majerus to finally be back in the big dance.
5. Cal Bears. Ye, the Pac-10 is still horrible and yes, there's a good chance it's a one bid conference, but that's exactly what makes a team actually going out and doing something worthwhile notable because nobody ever does it in this league. The Bears went on their road trip through Southern California and won at both USC and UCLA (their RPIs are 228 and 121, but remember it's the Pac-10 so we're on a different curve here). This now brings them to 10-3 and 20-6 overall, and at least getting near the middle of the bubble. Oh, and in case you're wondering Justin Cobbs had 28 point and 10 assists in those two wins. (Also noteworthy: Oregon also was 2-0 this week. Devoe had 29 points and 7 assists.) It's so funny I'm going to stab myself in the ankle with the bayonet I have sitting next to the couch.
WHO SUCKED
1. Florida Gators. Bit of a rough one for the Gators and those who at one point listed the Gators as a sleeper Final Four team. First, on Tuesday, the had a big chance to make a statement going into Lexington to play the #1 Kentucky Wildcats and walked out 20-point losers, and then on Saturday they took a home gimme win vs. Tennessee and somehow ended up losing by five. Actually I shouldn't say somehow, because it's pretty obvious than when a team is as dependent on the three-pointer the way Florida is (6th in the country in % of points coming from behind the line) when the shots aren't falling they're screwed. The Gators 17-56 from behind the arc in those two games, significantly worse than their season mark of nearly 40%. And a special shout-out to Erving Walker and Bradley Beal, who, along with Kenny Boynton, are basically the entire team and were 1-11 from 3 against Kentucky and 2-11 against Tennessee. That reliance on the three makes them both a threat to make a run in March and an early upset candidate. Guess I'm going to have to guess right.
2. William Buford. Buford actually had a pretty good game earlier in the week against Purdue (29 points on 10-17 shooting) which hurt the narrative a bit but he's been absolutely awful lately other than that game, and saved one of his worst for their big loss against Sparty, shooting 2-12 with 3 turnover (to 1 assist) for a grand total of 4 points. Looking back, outside of that game against Purdue the last time Buford shot 50% or better in a game was the first game of 2012, and he's shot 29-104 in those games, and has had 29 turnover versus 21 assists. Ohio State is really good and are absolutely a title contender, but if Buford doesn't get it figured out there's no way they're getting past the sweet 16.
3. Baylor Bears. I still like these guys a lot, but after they lost to both Kansas (at home) and Missouri (on the road) this week it might be time to take a harder look. Because they've now been swept by both those teams, and considering there are only three really good teams in the Big 12 (with apologies to Iowa State) that means that Baylor hasn't had a good win in quite some time. There's no doubt they're still a very good team with the resume to prove it (wins over Kansas State, Miss State, West Virginia, St. Mary's, BYU, and San Diego State), but there are alarm bells ringing all over the place after those two sweeps. Worth noting that Perry Jones scored 5 points against Kansas on 1-8 shooting and 4 points on 2-12 shooting against Missouri, which means he's only broken double digit scoring once in four game against these two teams. I'm going to go ahead and not do anymore research and just assume he's a choker in big games. Join me, won't you?
4. The Grammys. I'm thrilled they chose to award the Foo Fighters with basically every award they were up for, but I can't forgive them for slighting Wiz Khalifa for best rap performance and song. You're seriously going to give the Grammy to Jay-Z and "Mail it in" Kanye for Otis over the masterpiece Black & Yellow from Wiz and give the other one to some collaboration with like six singer/rappers? Joke. I suppose I should just be happy it was nominated, but it should have won, but the politics of not giving a grammy to such a power collaboration probably made this inevitable. The grammys used to mean something and be about the music but, much like when they stopped eating the groundhog in Punxatawney, we live in a sissified society. Shame. Check it:
5. Murray State and Harvard. I'm going to lump these two schools together because they both have an outside chance at an at-large berth, both stumbled this weekend (Murray lost to Tennessee State or Tech I'm not sure but I'm not looking it up and Harvard lost to Princeton), and both should probably do everything they can to win their league. Harvard still looks pretty good with only one Ivy loss, and now that I look apparently Murray State is a lock to get an at-large according to ESPN so maybe I'm stupid. I'm sorry, but how exactly are they a lock? Even at 21-1 their RPI is 57 (Gophers are 54, FYI), Strength of schedule is 292, and non-conference strength of schedule is 132. They only have four wins over the RPI top 150, and the two best are over Memphis and Southern Miss whose RPIs are top 25 but everyone know they suck. One more conference loss and I say ship 'em to the NIT. Plus maybe then I'll get to see them live at Williams' Arena, score!
Oh, and in case you're wondering if you missed him, no, I didn't write about Jeremy Lin because oh my god will you people shut up.
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