The Gophers are two games in, and I have very little to say since there is still so much unknown about this team. They seem like they play pretty decent defense, but they can't rebound at all. The pass the ball well and Carlos Morris seems like the only ball stopper, but they shoot way too many threes for a team that hasn't shown much of an ability to make them. As people always like to say, we won't really know about this team until they play a real opponent. Even if this event isn't exactly loaded with top tier teams, there's enough here that we should, indeed, know quite a bit more about this team afterwards.
First up is Temple on Thursday. The Owls have only played one game this year and they got their doors blown off by the Tar Heels, but since the Gophers have a wee bit less fire power than Carolina who knows what that means. Temple was maybe an NCAA snub last season, but they also lost two of their top three guys from last season so this is probably a decent test for our Gophers here.
Generally Fran Dunphy's teams vary their statistical profile based on personnel, which means he's a good coach, but they almost always have two things in common - tough defense, and they don't turn the ball over. Since we don't really know what we have in the Gophers the tough defense will be a good test, but I'd feel better if they weren't playing such a traditionally disciplined team. Overall, given the Owls have a decent team but not a good one, this game should tell us a ton about the Gophers this year.
Which is good, because the second game won't tell us anything, either way. If the Gophers lose they will most likely play Missouri State, who is a bottom tier Missouri Valley team that lost to Oral Roberts by 15 in their only game this year. Nothing is a guaranteed win, especially for a team like the Gophers this year, but this would be as close to one as any game they've played this year.
On the other hand if the Gophers win, they'll most likely play Butler, who has holes like any other team but is a tremendously awful matchup for them. Butler will pound the paint, crash the offensive boards, defend like hell, and take care of the basketball. They aren't a great team because they don't really have much size, but that won't matter against the Gophers. Basically if I was engineering a team to beat the Gophers, Butler is really close. If this matchup happens I'll have money on Butler, which is always fun because if you lose your bet that means your team won! (or did well).
The final game would be against Utah, Miami, Mississippi State, or Texas Tech. Utah is legit and is the favorite to win. In fact if they don't most likely they had a really bad tournament, so if the Gophers do end up playing the Utes that would mean good things for the Gophers. Plus it would be fun to watch the Gophers try to find a way to stop seven-foot monster Jakob Poeltl. Miami might not be completely terrible and we'd get to watch that jerk Ja'Quan Newton and see if Tonye Jekiri can get to 20 rebounds. Mississippi State is bad and just lost to Southern which is in the SWAC who should never beat anyone, but Malik Newman is a super stud freshman who would be fun to watch. Texas Tech is still mostly a garbage fire and it would suck to play them because the whole Gophers vs. Tubby narrative would drive me insane.
So there you go. Should be pretty fun.
Showing posts with label Miami. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Miami. Show all posts
Tuesday, November 17, 2015
Monday, March 18, 2013
Welcome Back to the NCAA Tournament
Well the Gophers are back in the NCAA Tournament and I gotta say despite everything else it feels damn good. I'm also pretty pleased with the 11 seed, because it keeps the Gophers away from the #1s and #2s as long as possible, although a possible second round match-up with Florida would probably be every bit the bloodbath you'd see against a #1 or #2. I'll be back with a preview of UCLA on Wednesday night (and then will go radio silent (except twitter) until the next week as we take our annual trip to Chicago to watch all the games from the Dayton Bar with Bogart.) I've also been informed that the Dayton Bar is also an Ole Miss bar so I'm looking forward to watching them hopefully beat the Badgers.
Anyway, here are the toughest things I'm struggling with as a fill out my bracket:
1) Florida or Georgetown? There were three teams I wanted to put in the final four for sure: Louisville, Florida, or Georgetown. Unfortunately, now I can't do that and need to make a choice between the Gators and Hoyas since they'd play in the Sweet 16 if everything holds. I love Florida because they have so many weapons and can score inside or out, and they compliment that with great defense. Georgetown is also an amazing defensive team, and they have Big East Player of the Year Otto Porter who is good enough to carry that offense on his back a la John Wallace or Kemba Walker. I hate that I have to choose, but I'm going with the Gators.
2) What do do with Wisconsin. I hate this. I was all set to have both Wisconsin (because I hate them) and Kansas State (because they, and Bruce Weber, suck) to lose in the first round, but it all broke wrong. Wisconsin gets an Ole Miss team who I don't think can compete with them, and Kansas State gets the play-in winner of LaSalle and Boise State, neither of whom is very good at all. I almost have to take K-State and Wisconsin to both win their first round match-up, and if that happens there's no way K-State can beat the Badgers because Ryan can coach circles around Weber and the Wildcats are perfectly undisciplined enough to fall right into Wisconsin's traps. So I have Wisconsin in the Sweet 16. Feels really wrong and icky and dirty, but since they're always the luckiest team in America you can't rule it out. I'm still rooting against them though. If you don't it means you hate America.
3) Who comes out of the West? In every other region it's come down to one or two difficult decisions between teams I think are good enough to make the Final Four, while in the West I'm decided who is least flawed among the contenders. Gonzaga and New Mexico are good teams no doubt, but neither has been tested as often or as consistently. Both have some good non-conference wins of course but Gonzaga ran through a pretty crappy conference and although New Mexico played in a good MWC I just don't know if I'm buying it. That leaves Ohio State, about whom there are no questions regarding having been tested, but unless their offense continues to be about more than DeShaun Thomas they're going to struggle. If anything wacky happens I'm betting it's in this region, because there are some really weak teams for their seed (Arizona, K-State, Wisco, etc.). Right now I'm going to buy the Buckeyes. The team's offense is coming together with Thomas finding plenty of help, the defense is top-notch as usual, and the coaching is solid.
4) Can Louisville Survive? I think the Cardinals are the best team in the NCAA and my pick to win it all, but holy hell is the Midwest Region a bitch. I consider Oklahoma State, St. Louis, and Michigan State as dark horse Final Four candidates and sure enough, they're all here. The only real saving grace is that Duke is the #2 here and Duke sucks so at least they catch a break there. Even some of the really high seeds (#12 Oregon, #14 Valparaiso) are pretty dangerous. Whoever gets out of this region is going to have to have done some seriously good work. Luckily Louisville hits my check list - come in on a high note (not necessarily a conference tournament victory but just playing well), good guards who can make free throws, great defense, and a team who can shoot without being dependent on the 3. So yeah, despite the tough region Louisville is my champ.
5) Who upsets Kansas? I know Kansas has kind of shed that choker label, what with the two Final Fours since 2008 and all, but there's no way this version of Kansas is Final Four bound so the question becomes where do they get bounced? I'm betting they don't get out of the first weekend with North Carolina knocking them out as one of the toughest 8 seeds I can remember. I know Carolina has been talked about as being "down" this year and maybe they are with 10 losses, but do you realize their worst loss this year was to Texas? And after that their worst loss was to Butler? The rest are 3 losses to Miami, 2 to Duke, and one each to Indiana, Virginia, and NC State which means the Heels don't have a single loss to a team outside of kenpom's top 100 teams. They're probably a little too perimeter dependent to make a significant run, but they should dispatch Villanova with ease and then in a one-time game against Kansas? It could happen, kids, it could happen.
6) How good is Miami? That's an important question, because I don't believe in Indiana and I don't believe in Marquette, which means it's either Miami or Syracuse coming out of the East for me. I do expect Syracuse to beat the Hoosiers and face the Canes with a Final Four berth on the line, so it becomes a matter if I think Miami is good enough to handle the Cuse. As it turns out, I think they are. They're experienced enough to not get rattled and they have the guard play needed to break down the Orange's zone with four guys who are lights out from three, and they play excellent defense, rebound well, and come in off an ACC Tournament Championship. Their free throw shooting is a bit suspect, but otherwise Miami is another team who looks really, really good and I have them in my Final Four.
That's it for now, back later with a Gophers/UCLA preview.
Anyway, here are the toughest things I'm struggling with as a fill out my bracket:
1) Florida or Georgetown? There were three teams I wanted to put in the final four for sure: Louisville, Florida, or Georgetown. Unfortunately, now I can't do that and need to make a choice between the Gators and Hoyas since they'd play in the Sweet 16 if everything holds. I love Florida because they have so many weapons and can score inside or out, and they compliment that with great defense. Georgetown is also an amazing defensive team, and they have Big East Player of the Year Otto Porter who is good enough to carry that offense on his back a la John Wallace or Kemba Walker. I hate that I have to choose, but I'm going with the Gators.
2) What do do with Wisconsin. I hate this. I was all set to have both Wisconsin (because I hate them) and Kansas State (because they, and Bruce Weber, suck) to lose in the first round, but it all broke wrong. Wisconsin gets an Ole Miss team who I don't think can compete with them, and Kansas State gets the play-in winner of LaSalle and Boise State, neither of whom is very good at all. I almost have to take K-State and Wisconsin to both win their first round match-up, and if that happens there's no way K-State can beat the Badgers because Ryan can coach circles around Weber and the Wildcats are perfectly undisciplined enough to fall right into Wisconsin's traps. So I have Wisconsin in the Sweet 16. Feels really wrong and icky and dirty, but since they're always the luckiest team in America you can't rule it out. I'm still rooting against them though. If you don't it means you hate America.
3) Who comes out of the West? In every other region it's come down to one or two difficult decisions between teams I think are good enough to make the Final Four, while in the West I'm decided who is least flawed among the contenders. Gonzaga and New Mexico are good teams no doubt, but neither has been tested as often or as consistently. Both have some good non-conference wins of course but Gonzaga ran through a pretty crappy conference and although New Mexico played in a good MWC I just don't know if I'm buying it. That leaves Ohio State, about whom there are no questions regarding having been tested, but unless their offense continues to be about more than DeShaun Thomas they're going to struggle. If anything wacky happens I'm betting it's in this region, because there are some really weak teams for their seed (Arizona, K-State, Wisco, etc.). Right now I'm going to buy the Buckeyes. The team's offense is coming together with Thomas finding plenty of help, the defense is top-notch as usual, and the coaching is solid.
4) Can Louisville Survive? I think the Cardinals are the best team in the NCAA and my pick to win it all, but holy hell is the Midwest Region a bitch. I consider Oklahoma State, St. Louis, and Michigan State as dark horse Final Four candidates and sure enough, they're all here. The only real saving grace is that Duke is the #2 here and Duke sucks so at least they catch a break there. Even some of the really high seeds (#12 Oregon, #14 Valparaiso) are pretty dangerous. Whoever gets out of this region is going to have to have done some seriously good work. Luckily Louisville hits my check list - come in on a high note (not necessarily a conference tournament victory but just playing well), good guards who can make free throws, great defense, and a team who can shoot without being dependent on the 3. So yeah, despite the tough region Louisville is my champ.
5) Who upsets Kansas? I know Kansas has kind of shed that choker label, what with the two Final Fours since 2008 and all, but there's no way this version of Kansas is Final Four bound so the question becomes where do they get bounced? I'm betting they don't get out of the first weekend with North Carolina knocking them out as one of the toughest 8 seeds I can remember. I know Carolina has been talked about as being "down" this year and maybe they are with 10 losses, but do you realize their worst loss this year was to Texas? And after that their worst loss was to Butler? The rest are 3 losses to Miami, 2 to Duke, and one each to Indiana, Virginia, and NC State which means the Heels don't have a single loss to a team outside of kenpom's top 100 teams. They're probably a little too perimeter dependent to make a significant run, but they should dispatch Villanova with ease and then in a one-time game against Kansas? It could happen, kids, it could happen.
6) How good is Miami? That's an important question, because I don't believe in Indiana and I don't believe in Marquette, which means it's either Miami or Syracuse coming out of the East for me. I do expect Syracuse to beat the Hoosiers and face the Canes with a Final Four berth on the line, so it becomes a matter if I think Miami is good enough to handle the Cuse. As it turns out, I think they are. They're experienced enough to not get rattled and they have the guard play needed to break down the Orange's zone with four guys who are lights out from three, and they play excellent defense, rebound well, and come in off an ACC Tournament Championship. Their free throw shooting is a bit suspect, but otherwise Miami is another team who looks really, really good and I have them in my Final Four.
That's it for now, back later with a Gophers/UCLA preview.
Monday, January 28, 2013
Week in Review - 1/28/2013
There isn't much here about the Gophers so if that's what you're looking for go look somewhere else (although I do bitch about Rodney Williams later). Losing to a mediocre Badger team at Kohl Center doesn't really tell me much, other than reconfirming once again that this Gopher team isn't "elite", but this loss does nothing for me in terms of if this team is "pretty good" or "frustratingly mediocre as usual." And nothing good can possibly happen next week (home games vs. Nebraska and Iowa) only disastrously bad things can happen outside of expected results, so we won't really know anything until the go to East Lansing and then have Illinois at home the following week. It's a frustrating time to be a fan. But what would life as a Gopher fan be without the frustration? We're all such idiots.
WHO WAS AWESOME
1. Miami Hurricanes. Hey bromigos, there have been some great wins by teams this year but it's going to be tough for anybody to top Miami beating #1 Duke by 27 (and yes I know Duke didn't have Ryan Kelly because everyone keeps pointing out how Duke didn't have Ryan Kelly but can everyone just calm down about that for a minute because we're talking about Ryan freaking Kelly here). I mean they just killed them. At the ten minute mark of the first half Duke was up 14-13, which means Miami beat them 77-59 over the final 30 minutes. This wasn't a fluke (don't forget Miami beat Michigan State earlier this year too) and Miami is now 6-0 in the conference and looking like a good bet to win the ACC for what I assume is the first time ever. Best part of that game was Seth Curry shooting 0-10 from the floor, because I still can't shake my irrational hatred of Stephen Curry so naturally that carries over to Seth because you know, brothers and stuff.
2. Kobe Bryant. I think I mentioned this last week but I recently traded for Kobe in my fantasy league which of course means I no longer hate him and kind of like him now, so I fee like it's worth noting that in his last two games he's had 14 assists. Not total, although frankly that would be kind of impressive for this black hole, but in each of the last two he's had 14 in each. I mean, say what you want but 14 assists in a game is a freaking lot, and he's now done it two games in a row. You know many players have ever had at least 14 assists in back-to-back games? I don't know either, probably kind of a lot, actually, but for a me first glory boy hero ball gunslinging chucker like Kobe to do it must have been very difficult for him mentally. And, the Lakers, are 2-0 in those games, which just goes to show you that when you have two maybe three other Hall of Famers on your team it does wonders for your squad's chances if you actually let them touch the ball and shoot and stuff. Like I've always said.
3. Baylor Bears. There's a reason why Baylor was highly ranked by many including myself this year, and that's because even with Perry Jones, Quincy Acy, and Quincy Miller off to the NBA the machine Scott Drew has put in place still meant they were going to be immensely talented. Sometimes they can put a game together like Monday against Oklahoma State, and even if the final margin was only 10 the game was never really in doubt. Their back court (Pierre Jackson, Brady Heslip, A.J. Walton) is both experienced and talented, while the front court (Isaiah Austin, Cory Jefferson) is probably the most athletic in the country with Jefferson the total freak and Austin the unstoppable freshman who can dominate inside or hit the three and already has a turnaround fadeway jumper which truly a thing to behold from a 7-1 dude with a wingspan beyond that (kind of like KG but slightly more awkward). Then on the bench you have Gary Franklin, Deuce Bello, and Rico Gathers who would all start for most teams. That's why they handled Oklahoma State, won at Rupp against Kentucky, and stomped BYU this year. Of course they're also a dumb team, so they've lost at Northwestern and dropped one at home to Charleston. I'm telling you right now, bros - Baylor is ripe for a first round upset this year in the tournament.
4. UCLA Bruins. There is a reason I ranked UCLA the 6th best team in the NCAA going into this season and they were ranked 13th in the preseason polls - there is a lot of freaking talent here. Early season struggles (one point home OT win over UC-Irvine, home loss to Cal Poly) dropped them out of the rankings and out of everyone's hearts and minds, but as things have come together they reeled off 10 straight wins before dropping a game last week to a good Oregon team, and now went into Tucson and knocked off 6th rated Arizona. The early season issues shouldn't have been a surprise since the team is mostly made up of freshmen (Shabazz Muhammed, Jordan Adams, Kyle Anderson) and transfers (the Wear twins, Larry Drew), but now everything is looking good (they smoked Arizona) and Muhammed is starting to look like he could do the Carmelo Anthony thing and carry this team in March. Of course, being a Ben Howland coached team they then went out an invalidated everything I just wrote by losing at Arizona State on Saturday, but I stand by this team anyway. Kinda sorta.
WHO SUCKED
1. Rodney Williams. No, I'm not the idiot who is going to call Williams out for missing the tying free throw because the odds of him hitting two free throws in any situation are pretty long any way and even as a senior he's a kid who isn't a good shooter and who has been in very few high leverage situations like it - it was basically a given he wasn't going to make them both, particularly on the road. No, I'm going to call out Williams because who in the baby jesus of the earth convinced him he's a jump shooter? He's not a jump shooter. He's a freak athlete who needs to get his ass in the paint because his jump shot resembles that of a high school wrestler. I don't even want him taking open jumpers, let alone the nearly constant shit he's been jacking up the last two games which consists of him stopping the ball, making a jab step or two that doesn't really move the defender, and then rising up and clanging a jumper off some slight part of the rim like he plays for the god damn Illini. Just because you have the ability to get your shot off whenever you want doesn't mean you should. To paraphrase Dr. Ian Malcolm, "You were so preoccupied with whether or not you could, you didn't stop to think if you should." Actually we should probably have Rodney sit down and watch Jurassic Park - the whole thing is a metaphor for his jump shot. Or something like that.
2. Kentucky Wildcats. Like when I wrote about the Lakers last week I'm not exactly breaking news here that Kentucky is struggling, but after watching them lose at Alabama it really reminded me that John Calipari is really not a good game coach, despite winning the title last year. The talent Kentucky has this year is nearly as good as anything else Calipari has had in his career, but when your offensive game plan generally consists of just rolling the ball out every game, that talent also has to be smart - you need coach on the floor types to keep things moving in the right direction. His best teams at Memphis had guys like Chris Douglas-Roberts and Derrick Rose, last year's champions had Anthony Davis and Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, and even back in the UMass days he had an incredible guard tandem in Carmelo Travieso and Edgar Padilla (I can't believe I didn't have to look those names up). Without a "smart" player to direct the team, a coach who is an A+ recruiter and a D+ game coach, and a small talent dip from last year this Kentucky team is going nowhere this year. Of course, next year they're probably going undefeated, so enjoy this now.
3. Arizona Diamondbacks. The D-Backs have a solid core and should be a good team again this year, but they've taken the "get rid of the guys the manager doesn't like" philosophy the Twins like so much to a whole different extreme. Earlier this offseason they unloaded super prospect Trevor Bauer because he wouldn't adapt the workout schedule he's done his entire life to match what the D-Backs wanted and received a prospect in return whose upside is "great glove, no hit" and now they've shipped off Justin Upton because he and manager Kirk Gibson apparently don't get along. Before trading Upton, however, they managed to kill all their leverage by making it clear they wanted him gone. Actually first they got a pretty good haul from Seattle, but Upton has a limited no-trade clause and killed that so, desperate to have him gone, they sent him off to Atlanta for one year of a so-so third baseman (Martin Prado) who wants in the neighborhood of $12 million a year starting next season, a likely fifth starter someday (Randall Delgado), and three other minor leaguers of little consequence. All that for a 25-year old who in four full seasons has had two monster years and two lesser years, which were both above average, by the way. Just a silly way to do business. We're actually lucky to have Gardy. Ha ha just kidding. Throw in the D-Backs trade of Chris Young to Oakland for another no hit/good field shortstop in Cliff Pennington and this offseason has just been bizarre for Arizona.
4. Virginia Commonwealth Rams. What incredible timing for the Rams to implode considering I just pimped them last week as a Final Four sleeper. All they've done this week is have a seven point lead with 42 seconds left vs. Richmond and blow the game and then lose at home to LaSalle. Now, neither Richmond or especially LaSalle are bad losses, but this isn't the way to prove me right and stuff. I still think they're a sleeper Final Four team what with their style of play since most teams don't ever go up against something like that, but both blowing a big lead against a mediocre opponent and losing a home game to another mediocre opponent kind of hurt the confidence level. Actually, maybe this helps since they'll end up with a worse seed and then I will be the only one to pick them to the Final Four and all that sweet sweet NCAA Tournament Pool money will be mine all mine! I'm a genius.
Lastly, the team in college basketball who hands down had the best week was Villanova. They beat both Louisville and Syracuse, giving wins over two top-5 teams in the same week which is pretty much like holy shit. The reasons I didn't list them in the "WHO WAS AWESOME" section are two-fold: 1) I hate them and 2) who gives a crap? Those are two great wins and yeah their RPI is creeping into the mid-50s so it's possible they could play themselves into an at-large, but they already have seven losses and even if most of them are excusable losing to Providence and especially Columbia is not. Also I don't even know if I can name a single player for Nova (is Jayvaughn Pinkston still there?) and I don't really feel like learning another team. So sorry.
Plus I heard Scottie Reynolds has an armpit fetish and cries when he watches Lion King.
WHO WAS AWESOME
1. Miami Hurricanes. Hey bromigos, there have been some great wins by teams this year but it's going to be tough for anybody to top Miami beating #1 Duke by 27 (and yes I know Duke didn't have Ryan Kelly because everyone keeps pointing out how Duke didn't have Ryan Kelly but can everyone just calm down about that for a minute because we're talking about Ryan freaking Kelly here). I mean they just killed them. At the ten minute mark of the first half Duke was up 14-13, which means Miami beat them 77-59 over the final 30 minutes. This wasn't a fluke (don't forget Miami beat Michigan State earlier this year too) and Miami is now 6-0 in the conference and looking like a good bet to win the ACC for what I assume is the first time ever. Best part of that game was Seth Curry shooting 0-10 from the floor, because I still can't shake my irrational hatred of Stephen Curry so naturally that carries over to Seth because you know, brothers and stuff.
2. Kobe Bryant. I think I mentioned this last week but I recently traded for Kobe in my fantasy league which of course means I no longer hate him and kind of like him now, so I fee like it's worth noting that in his last two games he's had 14 assists. Not total, although frankly that would be kind of impressive for this black hole, but in each of the last two he's had 14 in each. I mean, say what you want but 14 assists in a game is a freaking lot, and he's now done it two games in a row. You know many players have ever had at least 14 assists in back-to-back games? I don't know either, probably kind of a lot, actually, but for a me first glory boy hero ball gunslinging chucker like Kobe to do it must have been very difficult for him mentally. And, the Lakers, are 2-0 in those games, which just goes to show you that when you have two maybe three other Hall of Famers on your team it does wonders for your squad's chances if you actually let them touch the ball and shoot and stuff. Like I've always said.
3. Baylor Bears. There's a reason why Baylor was highly ranked by many including myself this year, and that's because even with Perry Jones, Quincy Acy, and Quincy Miller off to the NBA the machine Scott Drew has put in place still meant they were going to be immensely talented. Sometimes they can put a game together like Monday against Oklahoma State, and even if the final margin was only 10 the game was never really in doubt. Their back court (Pierre Jackson, Brady Heslip, A.J. Walton) is both experienced and talented, while the front court (Isaiah Austin, Cory Jefferson) is probably the most athletic in the country with Jefferson the total freak and Austin the unstoppable freshman who can dominate inside or hit the three and already has a turnaround fadeway jumper which truly a thing to behold from a 7-1 dude with a wingspan beyond that (kind of like KG but slightly more awkward). Then on the bench you have Gary Franklin, Deuce Bello, and Rico Gathers who would all start for most teams. That's why they handled Oklahoma State, won at Rupp against Kentucky, and stomped BYU this year. Of course they're also a dumb team, so they've lost at Northwestern and dropped one at home to Charleston. I'm telling you right now, bros - Baylor is ripe for a first round upset this year in the tournament.
4. UCLA Bruins. There is a reason I ranked UCLA the 6th best team in the NCAA going into this season and they were ranked 13th in the preseason polls - there is a lot of freaking talent here. Early season struggles (one point home OT win over UC-Irvine, home loss to Cal Poly) dropped them out of the rankings and out of everyone's hearts and minds, but as things have come together they reeled off 10 straight wins before dropping a game last week to a good Oregon team, and now went into Tucson and knocked off 6th rated Arizona. The early season issues shouldn't have been a surprise since the team is mostly made up of freshmen (Shabazz Muhammed, Jordan Adams, Kyle Anderson) and transfers (the Wear twins, Larry Drew), but now everything is looking good (they smoked Arizona) and Muhammed is starting to look like he could do the Carmelo Anthony thing and carry this team in March. Of course, being a Ben Howland coached team they then went out an invalidated everything I just wrote by losing at Arizona State on Saturday, but I stand by this team anyway. Kinda sorta.
WHO SUCKED
1. Rodney Williams. No, I'm not the idiot who is going to call Williams out for missing the tying free throw because the odds of him hitting two free throws in any situation are pretty long any way and even as a senior he's a kid who isn't a good shooter and who has been in very few high leverage situations like it - it was basically a given he wasn't going to make them both, particularly on the road. No, I'm going to call out Williams because who in the baby jesus of the earth convinced him he's a jump shooter? He's not a jump shooter. He's a freak athlete who needs to get his ass in the paint because his jump shot resembles that of a high school wrestler. I don't even want him taking open jumpers, let alone the nearly constant shit he's been jacking up the last two games which consists of him stopping the ball, making a jab step or two that doesn't really move the defender, and then rising up and clanging a jumper off some slight part of the rim like he plays for the god damn Illini. Just because you have the ability to get your shot off whenever you want doesn't mean you should. To paraphrase Dr. Ian Malcolm, "You were so preoccupied with whether or not you could, you didn't stop to think if you should." Actually we should probably have Rodney sit down and watch Jurassic Park - the whole thing is a metaphor for his jump shot. Or something like that.
2. Kentucky Wildcats. Like when I wrote about the Lakers last week I'm not exactly breaking news here that Kentucky is struggling, but after watching them lose at Alabama it really reminded me that John Calipari is really not a good game coach, despite winning the title last year. The talent Kentucky has this year is nearly as good as anything else Calipari has had in his career, but when your offensive game plan generally consists of just rolling the ball out every game, that talent also has to be smart - you need coach on the floor types to keep things moving in the right direction. His best teams at Memphis had guys like Chris Douglas-Roberts and Derrick Rose, last year's champions had Anthony Davis and Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, and even back in the UMass days he had an incredible guard tandem in Carmelo Travieso and Edgar Padilla (I can't believe I didn't have to look those names up). Without a "smart" player to direct the team, a coach who is an A+ recruiter and a D+ game coach, and a small talent dip from last year this Kentucky team is going nowhere this year. Of course, next year they're probably going undefeated, so enjoy this now.
3. Arizona Diamondbacks. The D-Backs have a solid core and should be a good team again this year, but they've taken the "get rid of the guys the manager doesn't like" philosophy the Twins like so much to a whole different extreme. Earlier this offseason they unloaded super prospect Trevor Bauer because he wouldn't adapt the workout schedule he's done his entire life to match what the D-Backs wanted and received a prospect in return whose upside is "great glove, no hit" and now they've shipped off Justin Upton because he and manager Kirk Gibson apparently don't get along. Before trading Upton, however, they managed to kill all their leverage by making it clear they wanted him gone. Actually first they got a pretty good haul from Seattle, but Upton has a limited no-trade clause and killed that so, desperate to have him gone, they sent him off to Atlanta for one year of a so-so third baseman (Martin Prado) who wants in the neighborhood of $12 million a year starting next season, a likely fifth starter someday (Randall Delgado), and three other minor leaguers of little consequence. All that for a 25-year old who in four full seasons has had two monster years and two lesser years, which were both above average, by the way. Just a silly way to do business. We're actually lucky to have Gardy. Ha ha just kidding. Throw in the D-Backs trade of Chris Young to Oakland for another no hit/good field shortstop in Cliff Pennington and this offseason has just been bizarre for Arizona.
4. Virginia Commonwealth Rams. What incredible timing for the Rams to implode considering I just pimped them last week as a Final Four sleeper. All they've done this week is have a seven point lead with 42 seconds left vs. Richmond and blow the game and then lose at home to LaSalle. Now, neither Richmond or especially LaSalle are bad losses, but this isn't the way to prove me right and stuff. I still think they're a sleeper Final Four team what with their style of play since most teams don't ever go up against something like that, but both blowing a big lead against a mediocre opponent and losing a home game to another mediocre opponent kind of hurt the confidence level. Actually, maybe this helps since they'll end up with a worse seed and then I will be the only one to pick them to the Final Four and all that sweet sweet NCAA Tournament Pool money will be mine all mine! I'm a genius.
Lastly, the team in college basketball who hands down had the best week was Villanova. They beat both Louisville and Syracuse, giving wins over two top-5 teams in the same week which is pretty much like holy shit. The reasons I didn't list them in the "WHO WAS AWESOME" section are two-fold: 1) I hate them and 2) who gives a crap? Those are two great wins and yeah their RPI is creeping into the mid-50s so it's possible they could play themselves into an at-large, but they already have seven losses and even if most of them are excusable losing to Providence and especially Columbia is not. Also I don't even know if I can name a single player for Nova (is Jayvaughn Pinkston still there?) and I don't really feel like learning another team. So sorry.
Plus I heard Scottie Reynolds has an armpit fetish and cries when he watches Lion King.
Monday, October 22, 2012
DWG NCAA Basketball Preview: Teams #38-34
Way to go, Kyle Lohse. You might as well just come to my house and steal my money. And it's not just Lohse, it's everybody - not only the Cardinals but the entire National League. The Giants suck. I'm sorry, it's just a fact, but everyone seems to just lay down and die. The Cards, a normally excellent fielding team, have given more free runs away this series than they've scored and suddenly the Cards can't hit Barry Zito? I can't believe I'm going to have to be a Tiger fan for the Series. Gross. But I sure as shit can't root for the Giants. I feel sick. Whatever. Let's look at some chicks and talk some roundball.
38. Texas Longhorns. Similar to last year's team, this Texas squad will be deep and talented in the back court with major question marks in the front court. Dissimilar to last year's team, they won't have last year's leading scorer in the Big 12 (at 20.1ppg) J'Covan Brown, who left the team to enter the NBA draft and then didn't get drafted like a genius. Stupid name guy Myck Kabongo will be the key as the team's point guard and best player, but his status is currently in limbo due to some agent related nonsense. Although the agent is the same guy who represents Tristan Thompson and Cory Joseph and Kabongo is also part of that bizarre Canada/Texas pipeline, so I'm pretty sure he's definitely guilty of whatever. I believe suspension is the only answer.
37. Miami Hurricanes. It's very possible I'm overrating the Canes since my ranking for them (particularly ahead of FSU) doesn't seem to jibe with most others I've seen, but I like a lot about this team. Reggie Johnson and Kenny Kadji are both double-double threats at all times and averaged 22 points and 13 rebounds per game between them. Johnson is 6-10, 292 lbs. Kadji is 6-11, 242 lbs. They're both seniors so they aren't about to fuck around this season. They do lose two of last year's three starting guards, but they get by far the best one back in Durand Scott, and Shane Larkin (yes, Barry's kid) is going to be in his second year and can give the Canes a real live point guard for the first time in a while. He was one of the best point guard prospects a year ago and had a decent freshman year, but it's time for him to step up to the plate and go yard from the duguot with a rosin bag before the Hurricanes boot one and strike out in the bottom of the ninth with the bases loaded.
36. Valparaiso Crusaders. Valpo won the Horizon regular season title last year before getting crushed by Detroit in the Horizon Tournament Final, but with their top two players and lots of seniors back they are the favorite to take the conference again, and hopefully (for them) not flame out again. And if they make the tournament you'll hear way too much about them because, admittedly, they're kind of an interesting team. The coach is Bryce Drew who hit the second greatest shot in NCAA Tournament history (behind that dude from Northwestern State who hit the shot to knock out Iowa because fuck Iowa). Their best player (and last season's conference player of the year) was a finalist to make the Australian Olympic team. Their second best player has played internationally for both the Canary Islands and the Netherlands. They have a dude from Jamaica. They have guys who transferred from Virginia Tech, Ole Miss, Indiana, Hawaii, Cal, South Florida, and Rice. Seriously it's ridiculous. I haven't seen this many transfers since Tark's days at Fresno. Plus they have a guy with the last name Buggs, and since we all know Charles Buggs is going to be a superstar I can only assume the same for a guy who I assume is related.
35. Oklahoma State Cowboys. The Cowboys season will basically come down to what kind of changes LeBryan Nash made this offseason. Nash was the team's best player last season, should be again this year, and is probably the best player to suit up for OSU since JamesOn Curry. The bad news, however, is that he shot an appalling 39% including just 24% from three despite jacking up the second most shots on the squad (behind the departed bomber Keiton Page). He balanced out his poor shooting and shot selection by averaging just 1.5 assists per game and getting almost no steals. He's insanely talented and if he can play smarter and maybe hit a jumper here and there these guys should be in line for an NCAA bid. And hey, if everything works out he can become the next JamesOn Curry and enter the NBA draft after his junior year and then fail to get drafted in the first round. It's good to have dreams.
34. Stanford Cardinal. Yes, the dreaded Cardinal. Enders of the Gophers season and world champions of the NIT. And, as we all know, winning the NIT is a strong predictor of future success the following season. I'm just kidding of course, it means exactly jack shit. More than anything it's just says you were a crappy team that couldn't be bothered to get into the NCAA Tournament, and barring a stellar recruiting class coming in you're probably still terrible. And they are. They have a good back court in Chasson Randle and Aaron Bright and some decently experienced guys, but nothing really special. Which is why they're ranked 34th and are incredibly boring. Or maybe they're ranked 34th because they're boring? I don't know. I'm tired and hate Kyle Lohse.
Now that I think about it, Detroit gets to set their rotation with Verlander first and I assume Scherzer second and will have the option to go with JV three times. The Giants will have to go with Lincecum and Zito to start it off and will only get to throw Cain once. I'm thinking we make some money on the Tigers. We goin' Sizzla.
Previous:
Teams #68-60
Teams #59-53
Teams #52-47
Teams #46-39
Now that I think about it, Detroit gets to set their rotation with Verlander first and I assume Scherzer second and will have the option to go with JV three times. The Giants will have to go with Lincecum and Zito to start it off and will only get to throw Cain once. I'm thinking we make some money on the Tigers. We goin' Sizzla.
Previous:
Teams #68-60
Teams #59-53
Teams #52-47
Teams #46-39
Monday, February 27, 2012
Week in Review: 2-27/2012
I have no idea what to say or how to say it. We've been down this road again and again and written this same recap again and again. That was just an embarrassing loss, particularly when the season was on the line (as thin as that line may have been) and it was a home game against a team you've already beaten on the road. To get absolutely blown out in a must-win home game sends pretty much the loudest message possible to the committee that you don't belong in the NCAA Tournament. Even winning out the last two and making a run to the conference tournament final probably isn't enough anymore, but we don't really have to worry about it because there is zero chance this team can win at Wisconsin. They've checked out.
I don't think they've checked out on Tubby, but they've certainly checked out on this season. The body language says it all, and Ralph's 1-11 shooting performance on Sunday basically sums it up. This is a defeated team, and Tubby feels it as well. At this point these two games need to just end, then lose in the first round of the b10 tourney, and start planning for next year. It's clear the players just want this season to end, and I can't blame them because it's been miserable these last couple of weeks. But I'm not on the fire Tubby bandwagon, even if I've been critical of his game coaching abilities. I remain critical of those, but he deserves one more year, but it's a make or break year. If there's another season that goes similarly to this one, it's time to move on. The important thing is to build a program, and if he misses another NCAA Tournament, well, there's no building going on. One more year, Tubby. Show us why we were all excited when the hiring was initially announced. This is just sad.
I mean, look at Notre Dame this year. Both the Gophers and Notre Dame received exactly one 25th place vote in a poll to start the season (Gophers in the AP, Notre Dame in the coaches). Both teams lost their best player for the year, a senior power forward, early in the season (like Mbakwe for the Gophers, Tim Abromaitis led the team in both scoring and rebounding when he went down). Neither team had any kind of real impact freshman coming in, so post-injury both schools looked to be in trouble. But, where the Gophers have struggled and floundered and canceled out any flashes of brilliance with some terrible outings, Notre Dame has played together, executed well consistently, and completely bought in to Mike Brey's system and is 20-10 overall, 12-5 in the Big East, and a lock for the tournament. Look at these two teams. It's hard to say Notre Dame is significantly more talented, if at all, than the Gophers, and yet look at the results. Unsettling, at best.
We move on....
WHO WAS AWESOME
1. Iowa State Cyclones. Well, for those of you out there who were complete idiots and were saying Fred Hoiberg was some kind of moron for collected talented yet troubled transfers (and you know who you are) how about you pour some Bacardi 151 in your butthole and chase it with a match? Because Iowa State just won at Kansas State - the same K-State who just beat both Baylor and Missouri on the road - to move to 11-5 in Big 12 play and 21-8 overall. They're now tied for 4th with Baylor in the Conference and have now 100% locked up an NCAA bid. While the Gophers need a miracle. I'm moving to Ames. Plus they got craps there.
2. Purdue Boilermakers. While every other Big 10 team who was chasing a bid goes down faster than your mom on prom night, Purdue is taking a stand and doing what needs to be done like full grown men. I'm just kidding about that sentence by the way, it's intentionally douchey (except for the mom joke, that's all me). Anyway, while everyone else is pooping on their heads, Purdue went into Ann Arbor and beat Michigan, a team that was undefeated at home this year, was ranked #11 in the polls, #10 in the RPI, and #21 in kenpom's ratings. That, my friends, is the definition of a signature win and puts Purdue firmly into tournament lock status. And you know how they won? Because Terone Johnson shot 9-12 for 22 points and carried the offense. You know the last time an unsung-y Gopher like Johnson stepped up to carry the team to a victory? Caddyshack. Cue rimshot.
3. Kansas Jayhawks. I kind of feel like I've been underrating the Jayhawks all year, mainly because they're a two-man show and also because I hate them and have hated them since that little wiener Jeff Boschee was running around being wienery. But they're about to win the Big 12 for the 9th straight year* after beating Missouri, and that win was a freaking ballsy ass win because they were down 19 and came back against an incredibly good team. And Thomas Robinson? Holy hell is this guy good. He's nearly flawless in the low post, and because Missouri only has one low-post kind of defender in Ricardo Ratliffe (who, by the way, is completely awesome in his own way) they chose to single cover Robinson all game and he put on a clinic. Now, this is hyperbole of the biggest fashion so don't jump down my throat, but watching him I actually was reminded of Hakeem Olajuwon. I know, I know, but I was. I can't help it. Guy's legit.
4. Miami Hurricanes. I've said it before and I'll say it again, I'm always impressed with teams on the Bubble who go out and get that big home win that they need (mainly because I don't know if I've ever seen it from my favorite team), and Miami did just that this weekend, taking down the #16 Seminoles 78-62 to jump up and likely grab themselves and NCAA bid. Most impressive is that they did it without starting center and double-double guy Reggie Johnson, who was ruled ineligible by the NCAA due to some minor infractions that will hopefully be resolved quickly. Not to mention that even without him they managed to put up 78 points on the usually defensively studly Seminoles, the first time a team has scored that much on them since January 7th. Pretty sure Miami sucks and won't win a game in the tourney, but at least they're most likely going to make it.
5. South Florida Bulls. Speaking of college teams from the state of Florida who picked up huge wins with bubble ramifications over the weekend, USF knocked off fellow bubble team Cincinnati on Sunday and can pretty officially no longer be ignored. The game wasn't pretty with the Bulls winning 46-45, both teams having just one player score in double figures, and the two teams combined to shoot 6-30 from 3-point land, but USF did what they needed to do and got a big victory. South Florida is now 11-5 in the Big East, has bumped their RPI up to 45 (right behind K-State), and now has a 4-1 record against teams between 40-100 in the RPI. Of course, they are also 0-7 vs. the RPI top 40 and have three losses against sub-100 teams, but closing out the season at 11-4 is pretty solid. You'd have to think if they can finish out 1-1 (@Louisville, vs. WVU) and then win their Big East Tourny opener they'd be in - a far cry from the team that started the year 7-7 and lost to Penn State (among other craptastic squads).
WHO SUCKED
1. Seton Hall Pirates. Are you shitting me Seton Hall? So they beat Georgetown for one of the most meaningful bubble wins this year and it's all like oh hell yes sweet what a great win awesome to see a team actually step up when they have to. And how do they follow it up? By losing at home to freaking Rutgers. Rutgers of the four conference wins and #149 RPI. Seriously, I mean if this doesn't completely wipe out all the good they did by beating the Hoyas it's damn close. I swear to god this is exactly what I expect from the Gophers or Northwestern, not a real team from the Big East. Shaheen Holloway is probably rolling over in his sports grave.
2. West Virginia Mountaineers. Even though there are plenty of teams doing everything they can to avoid getting invited to the NCAA Tournament, I don't know if anybody is doing a better job of tanking than West Virginia. On January 21 they were 15-5 and 5-2 in the Big East after beating Cincinnati. Since then they've gone 2-7 (with one of the wins taking overtime to beat Providence). This week may have been the worst, first going to Notre Dame and getting beat by 30, then taking on a Marquette squad that suspended three starters for the first half, building an 11-point half-time lead, and then blowing it and losing by one. A team that looked like an easy lock for the NCAA Tournament a month ago is now completely floundering, and with just games vs. DePaul and @ South Florida left a 2-0 finish is now an absolute must, and they might need a win or two in the Big East Tournament to get in. Seriously, if Huggins is going to find a way to cheat he might as well get started pretty quick.
3. Florida Gators. Jeez this seems like a very Florida-y week in review, which I guess is kind of appropriate since I'm going to Florida for a family vacation starting next Tuesday and that's kind of on my mind, but it's been a very Florda-centric week for being awesome and sucking so here we are. Anyway, the Gators continue to show how vulnerable they are because of their reliance on the perimeter jumper, and Georgia took advantage taking them down 76-62 with the Gators shooting just 5-23 from three. 39% of Florida's points come from three-pointers, the 3rd most in the country, and 44.6% of their shot attempts come from behind the arc (6th in the nation). Even though they do shoot them well (39.4%, 16th in the country) relying on something that can disappear in any given game, combined with a pretty bad defense (94th in Defensive efficiency) is a recipe for any early March exit.
4. Ohio State Buckeyes. Obviously there are varying degrees of sucking because I would kill your mother if it meant the Gophers would even approach Ohio State's success, but for a team that was/is supposed to be a national title contender there are some major concerns right now, with Ohio State 2-3 in their last five games including two home losses (to Michigan State and Wisconsin, but still). The Buckeyes were supposed to cruise to a Big 10 title and even with Michigan State having a tremendous year they should still be the class of the conference, but all of a sudden they're showing a whole bunch of chinks in their armor (wait, are we allowed to say that?) Buford has just been plain off most of the year, Craft hasn't turned into anything on the offensive end, and suddenly Sullinger is disappearing in games (17 total points in the last two, plus 1-7 from the free throw line when he's a 74% shooter this season). Still plenty of talent here and they're probably still one of the 10 best teams in the country, but suddenly an early round loss in the tournament doesn't seem like the impossibility it once did.
5. Cal Golden Bears. I don't know why I obsess about the Pac-10's mediocrity so much, but it's just mind boggling that a conference with schools like UCLA, USC, Washington, Cal, etc. can be so bad at basketball for so long. Every year there's a point where it looks like the Pac-12 might only get one bid, and although I don't think it's actually happened yet it's amazing how close it gets every year. And once again this season just when it looks like both Cal and Washington are safe, Cal goes out and gets destroyed by Colorado 70-57. Both Washington and Cal will probably still get in and everything, but jeez man, it's just amazing how much they suck. Also, in a semi-related note, with all the conference realignment going on I think what makes the most sense is for the Gophers to move into the Pac-12. It's common sense, really.
With conference tournaments starting up this week I need to get to work on the small conference tournament previews, so you'll have to do without your pithy outro this week. You know, the outro nobody reads because they've usually bailed on my post halfway through or so because it's too long and/or boring? Yeah, that.
* = I made this up because I was toodrunk tired to actually look it up
I don't think they've checked out on Tubby, but they've certainly checked out on this season. The body language says it all, and Ralph's 1-11 shooting performance on Sunday basically sums it up. This is a defeated team, and Tubby feels it as well. At this point these two games need to just end, then lose in the first round of the b10 tourney, and start planning for next year. It's clear the players just want this season to end, and I can't blame them because it's been miserable these last couple of weeks. But I'm not on the fire Tubby bandwagon, even if I've been critical of his game coaching abilities. I remain critical of those, but he deserves one more year, but it's a make or break year. If there's another season that goes similarly to this one, it's time to move on. The important thing is to build a program, and if he misses another NCAA Tournament, well, there's no building going on. One more year, Tubby. Show us why we were all excited when the hiring was initially announced. This is just sad.
I mean, look at Notre Dame this year. Both the Gophers and Notre Dame received exactly one 25th place vote in a poll to start the season (Gophers in the AP, Notre Dame in the coaches). Both teams lost their best player for the year, a senior power forward, early in the season (like Mbakwe for the Gophers, Tim Abromaitis led the team in both scoring and rebounding when he went down). Neither team had any kind of real impact freshman coming in, so post-injury both schools looked to be in trouble. But, where the Gophers have struggled and floundered and canceled out any flashes of brilliance with some terrible outings, Notre Dame has played together, executed well consistently, and completely bought in to Mike Brey's system and is 20-10 overall, 12-5 in the Big East, and a lock for the tournament. Look at these two teams. It's hard to say Notre Dame is significantly more talented, if at all, than the Gophers, and yet look at the results. Unsettling, at best.
We move on....
WHO WAS AWESOME
1. Iowa State Cyclones. Well, for those of you out there who were complete idiots and were saying Fred Hoiberg was some kind of moron for collected talented yet troubled transfers (and you know who you are) how about you pour some Bacardi 151 in your butthole and chase it with a match? Because Iowa State just won at Kansas State - the same K-State who just beat both Baylor and Missouri on the road - to move to 11-5 in Big 12 play and 21-8 overall. They're now tied for 4th with Baylor in the Conference and have now 100% locked up an NCAA bid. While the Gophers need a miracle. I'm moving to Ames. Plus they got craps there.
2. Purdue Boilermakers. While every other Big 10 team who was chasing a bid goes down faster than your mom on prom night, Purdue is taking a stand and doing what needs to be done like full grown men. I'm just kidding about that sentence by the way, it's intentionally douchey (except for the mom joke, that's all me). Anyway, while everyone else is pooping on their heads, Purdue went into Ann Arbor and beat Michigan, a team that was undefeated at home this year, was ranked #11 in the polls, #10 in the RPI, and #21 in kenpom's ratings. That, my friends, is the definition of a signature win and puts Purdue firmly into tournament lock status. And you know how they won? Because Terone Johnson shot 9-12 for 22 points and carried the offense. You know the last time an unsung-y Gopher like Johnson stepped up to carry the team to a victory? Caddyshack. Cue rimshot.
3. Kansas Jayhawks. I kind of feel like I've been underrating the Jayhawks all year, mainly because they're a two-man show and also because I hate them and have hated them since that little wiener Jeff Boschee was running around being wienery. But they're about to win the Big 12 for the 9th straight year* after beating Missouri, and that win was a freaking ballsy ass win because they were down 19 and came back against an incredibly good team. And Thomas Robinson? Holy hell is this guy good. He's nearly flawless in the low post, and because Missouri only has one low-post kind of defender in Ricardo Ratliffe (who, by the way, is completely awesome in his own way) they chose to single cover Robinson all game and he put on a clinic. Now, this is hyperbole of the biggest fashion so don't jump down my throat, but watching him I actually was reminded of Hakeem Olajuwon. I know, I know, but I was. I can't help it. Guy's legit.
4. Miami Hurricanes. I've said it before and I'll say it again, I'm always impressed with teams on the Bubble who go out and get that big home win that they need (mainly because I don't know if I've ever seen it from my favorite team), and Miami did just that this weekend, taking down the #16 Seminoles 78-62 to jump up and likely grab themselves and NCAA bid. Most impressive is that they did it without starting center and double-double guy Reggie Johnson, who was ruled ineligible by the NCAA due to some minor infractions that will hopefully be resolved quickly. Not to mention that even without him they managed to put up 78 points on the usually defensively studly Seminoles, the first time a team has scored that much on them since January 7th. Pretty sure Miami sucks and won't win a game in the tourney, but at least they're most likely going to make it.
5. South Florida Bulls. Speaking of college teams from the state of Florida who picked up huge wins with bubble ramifications over the weekend, USF knocked off fellow bubble team Cincinnati on Sunday and can pretty officially no longer be ignored. The game wasn't pretty with the Bulls winning 46-45, both teams having just one player score in double figures, and the two teams combined to shoot 6-30 from 3-point land, but USF did what they needed to do and got a big victory. South Florida is now 11-5 in the Big East, has bumped their RPI up to 45 (right behind K-State), and now has a 4-1 record against teams between 40-100 in the RPI. Of course, they are also 0-7 vs. the RPI top 40 and have three losses against sub-100 teams, but closing out the season at 11-4 is pretty solid. You'd have to think if they can finish out 1-1 (@Louisville, vs. WVU) and then win their Big East Tourny opener they'd be in - a far cry from the team that started the year 7-7 and lost to Penn State (among other craptastic squads).
WHO SUCKED
1. Seton Hall Pirates. Are you shitting me Seton Hall? So they beat Georgetown for one of the most meaningful bubble wins this year and it's all like oh hell yes sweet what a great win awesome to see a team actually step up when they have to. And how do they follow it up? By losing at home to freaking Rutgers. Rutgers of the four conference wins and #149 RPI. Seriously, I mean if this doesn't completely wipe out all the good they did by beating the Hoyas it's damn close. I swear to god this is exactly what I expect from the Gophers or Northwestern, not a real team from the Big East. Shaheen Holloway is probably rolling over in his sports grave.
2. West Virginia Mountaineers. Even though there are plenty of teams doing everything they can to avoid getting invited to the NCAA Tournament, I don't know if anybody is doing a better job of tanking than West Virginia. On January 21 they were 15-5 and 5-2 in the Big East after beating Cincinnati. Since then they've gone 2-7 (with one of the wins taking overtime to beat Providence). This week may have been the worst, first going to Notre Dame and getting beat by 30, then taking on a Marquette squad that suspended three starters for the first half, building an 11-point half-time lead, and then blowing it and losing by one. A team that looked like an easy lock for the NCAA Tournament a month ago is now completely floundering, and with just games vs. DePaul and @ South Florida left a 2-0 finish is now an absolute must, and they might need a win or two in the Big East Tournament to get in. Seriously, if Huggins is going to find a way to cheat he might as well get started pretty quick.
3. Florida Gators. Jeez this seems like a very Florida-y week in review, which I guess is kind of appropriate since I'm going to Florida for a family vacation starting next Tuesday and that's kind of on my mind, but it's been a very Florda-centric week for being awesome and sucking so here we are. Anyway, the Gators continue to show how vulnerable they are because of their reliance on the perimeter jumper, and Georgia took advantage taking them down 76-62 with the Gators shooting just 5-23 from three. 39% of Florida's points come from three-pointers, the 3rd most in the country, and 44.6% of their shot attempts come from behind the arc (6th in the nation). Even though they do shoot them well (39.4%, 16th in the country) relying on something that can disappear in any given game, combined with a pretty bad defense (94th in Defensive efficiency) is a recipe for any early March exit.
4. Ohio State Buckeyes. Obviously there are varying degrees of sucking because I would kill your mother if it meant the Gophers would even approach Ohio State's success, but for a team that was/is supposed to be a national title contender there are some major concerns right now, with Ohio State 2-3 in their last five games including two home losses (to Michigan State and Wisconsin, but still). The Buckeyes were supposed to cruise to a Big 10 title and even with Michigan State having a tremendous year they should still be the class of the conference, but all of a sudden they're showing a whole bunch of chinks in their armor (wait, are we allowed to say that?) Buford has just been plain off most of the year, Craft hasn't turned into anything on the offensive end, and suddenly Sullinger is disappearing in games (17 total points in the last two, plus 1-7 from the free throw line when he's a 74% shooter this season). Still plenty of talent here and they're probably still one of the 10 best teams in the country, but suddenly an early round loss in the tournament doesn't seem like the impossibility it once did.
5. Cal Golden Bears. I don't know why I obsess about the Pac-10's mediocrity so much, but it's just mind boggling that a conference with schools like UCLA, USC, Washington, Cal, etc. can be so bad at basketball for so long. Every year there's a point where it looks like the Pac-12 might only get one bid, and although I don't think it's actually happened yet it's amazing how close it gets every year. And once again this season just when it looks like both Cal and Washington are safe, Cal goes out and gets destroyed by Colorado 70-57. Both Washington and Cal will probably still get in and everything, but jeez man, it's just amazing how much they suck. Also, in a semi-related note, with all the conference realignment going on I think what makes the most sense is for the Gophers to move into the Pac-12. It's common sense, really.
With conference tournaments starting up this week I need to get to work on the small conference tournament previews, so you'll have to do without your pithy outro this week. You know, the outro nobody reads because they've usually bailed on my post halfway through or so because it's too long and/or boring? Yeah, that.
* = I made this up because I was too
Wednesday, September 21, 2011
NCAA Hoops Preview - The ACC
As much as the idea of Syracuse not being in the Big East kind of churns my stomach, the upside that at least there will be a team in the conference capable of challenging UNC and Duke once in a while. I know they've traditionally been the best 2 teams, but things have just been ridiculous lately and might be topping (bottoming) out this year because nearly ever team has been killed by graduations and can't reload like those two nancies, so Duke and UNC are Final Four contenders at the same time you can't definitively point to any other ACC squad and say "that's a tournament team."
So I guess there's that.
1. NORTH CAROLINA TAR HEELS. For most teams losing a guy like Leslie McDonald for the season to a knee injury would be a big blow, but not this year's Heels. That is basically the only loss they suffered from their roster. Harrison Barnes, last year's #2 recruit and potential top 3 pick in the NBA draft last year, decided to return for another year of seasoning and, after a rough start to his career, began to flourish at the end, scoring 18+ points in 9 of the team's last 10 games. Tyler Zeller is still there and his offensive game is really turning into a thing of beauty, and the defense of John Henson will be there as well to block more shots than jesus. They also have their point guard back in Kendall Marshall, who is already turning into one of the best PGs in UNC History (although nobody will ever be better than Ed Cota). In case you want more, they also bring in a couple of new studs in F James McAdoo (#8 by Rivals) and P.J. Hairston (#13 and called the best shooter in this class), and have a bunch of other former top recruit types from the last couple of years who I haven't even mentioned. Yes, they're loaded. There's a reason why they're 3-1 to win the whole thing (sucker bet).
2. DUKE BLUE DEVILS. Kyrie Irving, Kyle Singler, and Nolan Smith is a huge amount of production and talent to lose, but you know the drill - unfortunately for every one who doesn't worship Satan, they just replace talent with talent are look to once again be one of the best teams in the nation. That isn't to say they won't have some weaknesses, however, because I refuse to believe that no matter how many Plumlees you have (and Duke is now up to 3) those aren't the type of bigs who are going to take you to a National Championship. Not counting, of course, the one they won 2 years ago, but that was really all Brian Zoubek. The three most interesting story lines to me are whether or not Seth Curry can be a team player and not end up a massive chuck monster like his brother, whether or not Austin Rivers (#1 freshman in the country) can integrate himself into a real (and good) team when his whole high school career has been him having to score 40 to carry a lackluster supporting cast, and just how gay is Duke, anyway?
3. MIAMI HURRICANES. The Canes are one of the few teams that were not hit hard by graduations/defections and return a couple of dynamic guards in Durand Scott and Malcolm Grant along with double-double machine Reggie Johnson who pretty much destroyed Duke last year since those pansies can't handle big, strong post players. And I'm sure you remember Scott and Grant, seeing as how they combined for 36 points against the Gophers two seasons ago in Florida completing the teams 3-game collapse after faltering in Anaheim and completely buzzkilling all the good feelings after they beat Butler. Yeah, I hate Miami.
4. VIRGINIA CAVALIERS. Mike Scott and his 16 and 10 averages are back after red-shirting last year due to an injury, and I like their plan of going with Scott and spreading a bunch of shooters out on the floor. And no, it's not just because Virginia shot 10-13 from three last year to kill the Gophers, they legitimately have some good shooters (Joe Harris, K.T. Harrell, and Sammy Zeglinski can all shoot it and both incoming freshmen can hit from outside) and Mike Scott is a legitimate beast. Overall Virginia was 19th in the country in 3-pt percentage and 23rd in % of points coming from behind the line, and that was with Scott only around for 10 games. I don't know. Maybe it is my memories of that game coloring my opinion, but I see the Cavs as a dangerous team this year.
5. FLORIDA STATE SEMINOLES. FSU is likely a near guarantee for an NCAA bid because their defense is always so good it's unlikely they'll completely implode, but you can't quite trust them because they are never offensively a good team and this year they don't have a real PG. They didn't last year either and things worked out, but last year they had Chris Singleton (most of the year) and Derwin Kitchen, both of whom could actually score once in a while and both of whom are gone. You know the defense will be there and you know they'll probably beat either UNC or Duke in Tallahassee, but it will be up to the offense whether this is a good team or a very good team. They're bringing in three top 150 recruits, all of whom are supposedly offensive players, so if any of them can get going right away that'll be a big boost. Remember the name Antwan Space. Just do it.
6. CLEMSON TIGERS. Not unlike the Seminoles, Clemson was hit hard by graduation, losing Demontez Stitt (leading scorer and assist man) and Jerai Grant (second leading scorer and leading rebounder) but they are such a solid defensive squad under Brad Brownell that they'll still be in the hunt for an NCAA bid, although at this point in the ACC most of these teams could finish anywhere from 5th to 10th. Still, the Tigers will have some talent including Devin Booker, the younger brother of former Clemson All-ACC performer Trevor. He hasn't quite made the same splash that Trevor did in his first two years, but the potential is probably there I'd assume. And speaking of potential, they actually have a McDonald's All-American on their roster in Milton Jennings. He managed 4 double-doubles last season, which makes Trevor Mbakwe laugh, but he could end up being the x-factor for Clemson. Whatever that means. I don't know, I'm just typing, man.
7. VIRGINIA TECH HOKIES. The Hokies have a couple huge holes to fill, losing both Malcolm Delaney and Jeff Allen who basically did everything for them. Fortunately, the have plenty of options to fill those holes, including two other returning double-digit scorers and a nice big recruiting class that includes some likely future stars - PF C.J. Barksdale, SG Robert Brown, and SF Dorian Finney-Smith are all top 100 on Rivals list with Finney-Smith topping the list at #31. So yeah, there are some big losses for the Hokies, but they might end up better in the long run. They had some serious choke jobs the last couple of years, and Delaney was a big part - mainly because he wanted the ball and everybody knew he was getting the ball. Perhaps a little balance could work in V-Tech's favor? Whatever it takes so we don't have to listen to Seth Greenberg whine about the selection committee again. My least favorite spring ritual.
8. NC STATE WOLFPACK. Losing Tracy Smith is tough, but losing both your point guards - including emerging star Ryan Harrow (who transferred to Kentucky after the coaching change from Lowe to Gottfried) is going to be tougher. State still has one of the most exciting players in the conference in PF C.J. Leslie, who was the #14 recruit in the nation his freshman year and averaged 11 & 7, along with a couple of other nice players in SG Lorenzo Brown (#37 last year) and dead-eye shooter Scott Wood so they'll be middle of the road with some chances to surprise people. If Brown can handle the point - or incoming CS-Bakersfield transfer guy can - they could finish significantly higher than this. I really love me some C.J. Leslie.
9. GEORGIA TECH YELLOW JACKETS. Do you think Glen Rice Jr. might have to look at a picture or two of Sarah Palin when Tech travels to Cameron or the Dean Dome or really anywhere? Hopefully for them he'll be able to block it out, because he's going to be the main offensive weapon on this team and has the talent and situation to potentially blossom into an All-ACC type of player, particularly with Iman Shumpert leaving for the NBA and Brian Oliver transferring to Seton Hall. Maybe the best news for Tech, however, is that Paul Hewitt is finally gone because even though he was a hell of a recruiter the guy was routinely out coached and over matched. Brian Gregory turned the garbage dumpster of Dayton into something reasonably mediocre and Tech is a much better program so he'll likely have them turned around sooner rather than later.
10. MARYLAND TERRAPINS. Yet another team that got hit hard by graduation, not only did Maryland lose a ton off last year's team but when Gary Williams decided to quit coaching an a pretty inopportune time like some kind of sweaty rhinoceros he didn't do the team any favors because most of the recruits he'd signed, and there were some good ones, jumped ship. They did manage to hold on to Nick Faust, a hometown kid who is a very good player (#48 rivals) and will make this team's strength - the back court - even stronger. The biggest questions will be on the interior. With the beast that was Jordan Williams and his double-double average off to the NBA and no notable additions with size, they'll have to turn to unproven upperclassmen to play in the paint. That always works well.
11. WAKE FOREST DEMON DEACONS. Wake might have been the worst major conference team in 300 years last season, so they can only get better. You'd think. Unfortunately lack of talent continues to meet up with knuckleheadism, with former top 100 recruit J.T. Terrell leaving the team after getting arrested for a DWI and fellow top 100 recruit Melvin Tabb currently suspended indefinitely for some ambiguous reason. The one big bright spot is SF Travis McKie who led the team in both scoring and rebounding last season. And this is where I'd write a sentence to tie all of that together, but every time I tried to watch a Wake game last year they were losing by 25 in the first half so I didn't really pay all that much attention.
12. BOSTON COLLEGE EAGLES. I don't know that I've ever seen something this dramatic, and it's hard to believe in this conference this year, but the Eagles come into this season with 92% of last year's scoring gone. 92%, yo. That means I got a 92% chance of embarrassing myself. I'll roll up on some shorty and be like "whats' up, yo" and she'll be like, "you don't know 20 ways to make me call you big poppa" because I don't, yo. I just typed that from memory so it might not be dead on but it's definitely close. Anyway, BC has 9 freshmen this year and I've never heard of any of them and they aren't on any lists so let's be honest, the quote was a much better use of our time.
Other Previews:
Big 12
So I guess there's that.
1. NORTH CAROLINA TAR HEELS. For most teams losing a guy like Leslie McDonald for the season to a knee injury would be a big blow, but not this year's Heels. That is basically the only loss they suffered from their roster. Harrison Barnes, last year's #2 recruit and potential top 3 pick in the NBA draft last year, decided to return for another year of seasoning and, after a rough start to his career, began to flourish at the end, scoring 18+ points in 9 of the team's last 10 games. Tyler Zeller is still there and his offensive game is really turning into a thing of beauty, and the defense of John Henson will be there as well to block more shots than jesus. They also have their point guard back in Kendall Marshall, who is already turning into one of the best PGs in UNC History (although nobody will ever be better than Ed Cota). In case you want more, they also bring in a couple of new studs in F James McAdoo (#8 by Rivals) and P.J. Hairston (#13 and called the best shooter in this class), and have a bunch of other former top recruit types from the last couple of years who I haven't even mentioned. Yes, they're loaded. There's a reason why they're 3-1 to win the whole thing (sucker bet).
2. DUKE BLUE DEVILS. Kyrie Irving, Kyle Singler, and Nolan Smith is a huge amount of production and talent to lose, but you know the drill - unfortunately for every one who doesn't worship Satan, they just replace talent with talent are look to once again be one of the best teams in the nation. That isn't to say they won't have some weaknesses, however, because I refuse to believe that no matter how many Plumlees you have (and Duke is now up to 3) those aren't the type of bigs who are going to take you to a National Championship. Not counting, of course, the one they won 2 years ago, but that was really all Brian Zoubek. The three most interesting story lines to me are whether or not Seth Curry can be a team player and not end up a massive chuck monster like his brother, whether or not Austin Rivers (#1 freshman in the country) can integrate himself into a real (and good) team when his whole high school career has been him having to score 40 to carry a lackluster supporting cast, and just how gay is Duke, anyway?
3. MIAMI HURRICANES. The Canes are one of the few teams that were not hit hard by graduations/defections and return a couple of dynamic guards in Durand Scott and Malcolm Grant along with double-double machine Reggie Johnson who pretty much destroyed Duke last year since those pansies can't handle big, strong post players. And I'm sure you remember Scott and Grant, seeing as how they combined for 36 points against the Gophers two seasons ago in Florida completing the teams 3-game collapse after faltering in Anaheim and completely buzzkilling all the good feelings after they beat Butler. Yeah, I hate Miami.
4. VIRGINIA CAVALIERS. Mike Scott and his 16 and 10 averages are back after red-shirting last year due to an injury, and I like their plan of going with Scott and spreading a bunch of shooters out on the floor. And no, it's not just because Virginia shot 10-13 from three last year to kill the Gophers, they legitimately have some good shooters (Joe Harris, K.T. Harrell, and Sammy Zeglinski can all shoot it and both incoming freshmen can hit from outside) and Mike Scott is a legitimate beast. Overall Virginia was 19th in the country in 3-pt percentage and 23rd in % of points coming from behind the line, and that was with Scott only around for 10 games. I don't know. Maybe it is my memories of that game coloring my opinion, but I see the Cavs as a dangerous team this year.
5. FLORIDA STATE SEMINOLES. FSU is likely a near guarantee for an NCAA bid because their defense is always so good it's unlikely they'll completely implode, but you can't quite trust them because they are never offensively a good team and this year they don't have a real PG. They didn't last year either and things worked out, but last year they had Chris Singleton (most of the year) and Derwin Kitchen, both of whom could actually score once in a while and both of whom are gone. You know the defense will be there and you know they'll probably beat either UNC or Duke in Tallahassee, but it will be up to the offense whether this is a good team or a very good team. They're bringing in three top 150 recruits, all of whom are supposedly offensive players, so if any of them can get going right away that'll be a big boost. Remember the name Antwan Space. Just do it.
6. CLEMSON TIGERS. Not unlike the Seminoles, Clemson was hit hard by graduation, losing Demontez Stitt (leading scorer and assist man) and Jerai Grant (second leading scorer and leading rebounder) but they are such a solid defensive squad under Brad Brownell that they'll still be in the hunt for an NCAA bid, although at this point in the ACC most of these teams could finish anywhere from 5th to 10th. Still, the Tigers will have some talent including Devin Booker, the younger brother of former Clemson All-ACC performer Trevor. He hasn't quite made the same splash that Trevor did in his first two years, but the potential is probably there I'd assume. And speaking of potential, they actually have a McDonald's All-American on their roster in Milton Jennings. He managed 4 double-doubles last season, which makes Trevor Mbakwe laugh, but he could end up being the x-factor for Clemson. Whatever that means. I don't know, I'm just typing, man.
7. VIRGINIA TECH HOKIES. The Hokies have a couple huge holes to fill, losing both Malcolm Delaney and Jeff Allen who basically did everything for them. Fortunately, the have plenty of options to fill those holes, including two other returning double-digit scorers and a nice big recruiting class that includes some likely future stars - PF C.J. Barksdale, SG Robert Brown, and SF Dorian Finney-Smith are all top 100 on Rivals list with Finney-Smith topping the list at #31. So yeah, there are some big losses for the Hokies, but they might end up better in the long run. They had some serious choke jobs the last couple of years, and Delaney was a big part - mainly because he wanted the ball and everybody knew he was getting the ball. Perhaps a little balance could work in V-Tech's favor? Whatever it takes so we don't have to listen to Seth Greenberg whine about the selection committee again. My least favorite spring ritual.
8. NC STATE WOLFPACK. Losing Tracy Smith is tough, but losing both your point guards - including emerging star Ryan Harrow (who transferred to Kentucky after the coaching change from Lowe to Gottfried) is going to be tougher. State still has one of the most exciting players in the conference in PF C.J. Leslie, who was the #14 recruit in the nation his freshman year and averaged 11 & 7, along with a couple of other nice players in SG Lorenzo Brown (#37 last year) and dead-eye shooter Scott Wood so they'll be middle of the road with some chances to surprise people. If Brown can handle the point - or incoming CS-Bakersfield transfer guy can - they could finish significantly higher than this. I really love me some C.J. Leslie.
9. GEORGIA TECH YELLOW JACKETS. Do you think Glen Rice Jr. might have to look at a picture or two of Sarah Palin when Tech travels to Cameron or the Dean Dome or really anywhere? Hopefully for them he'll be able to block it out, because he's going to be the main offensive weapon on this team and has the talent and situation to potentially blossom into an All-ACC type of player, particularly with Iman Shumpert leaving for the NBA and Brian Oliver transferring to Seton Hall. Maybe the best news for Tech, however, is that Paul Hewitt is finally gone because even though he was a hell of a recruiter the guy was routinely out coached and over matched. Brian Gregory turned the garbage dumpster of Dayton into something reasonably mediocre and Tech is a much better program so he'll likely have them turned around sooner rather than later.
10. MARYLAND TERRAPINS. Yet another team that got hit hard by graduation, not only did Maryland lose a ton off last year's team but when Gary Williams decided to quit coaching an a pretty inopportune time like some kind of sweaty rhinoceros he didn't do the team any favors because most of the recruits he'd signed, and there were some good ones, jumped ship. They did manage to hold on to Nick Faust, a hometown kid who is a very good player (#48 rivals) and will make this team's strength - the back court - even stronger. The biggest questions will be on the interior. With the beast that was Jordan Williams and his double-double average off to the NBA and no notable additions with size, they'll have to turn to unproven upperclassmen to play in the paint. That always works well.
11. WAKE FOREST DEMON DEACONS. Wake might have been the worst major conference team in 300 years last season, so they can only get better. You'd think. Unfortunately lack of talent continues to meet up with knuckleheadism, with former top 100 recruit J.T. Terrell leaving the team after getting arrested for a DWI and fellow top 100 recruit Melvin Tabb currently suspended indefinitely for some ambiguous reason. The one big bright spot is SF Travis McKie who led the team in both scoring and rebounding last season. And this is where I'd write a sentence to tie all of that together, but every time I tried to watch a Wake game last year they were losing by 25 in the first half so I didn't really pay all that much attention.
12. BOSTON COLLEGE EAGLES. I don't know that I've ever seen something this dramatic, and it's hard to believe in this conference this year, but the Eagles come into this season with 92% of last year's scoring gone. 92%, yo. That means I got a 92% chance of embarrassing myself. I'll roll up on some shorty and be like "whats' up, yo" and she'll be like, "you don't know 20 ways to make me call you big poppa" because I don't, yo. I just typed that from memory so it might not be dead on but it's definitely close. Anyway, BC has 9 freshmen this year and I've never heard of any of them and they aren't on any lists so let's be honest, the quote was a much better use of our time.
Other Previews:
Big 12
Tuesday, October 12, 2010
ACC College Basketball 2010 Preview
The ACC has been almost been a two team league lately, and it looks like it might stay that way. Sure, NC State and Virginia Tech are up this year, but Clemson, Georgia Tech, and especially Wake Forest are down. Even when UNC was bad last year, you knew it wouldn't last, and in Duke's darkest days they recovered. It seems every other school is on a constant up/down cycle. Either Duke or UNC has either won outright or tied for the ACC regular season championship the last seven years and 17 of the last 20. That's lame. Somebody do something.
1. Duke Blue Devils. I mean, you pretty much have to pick them first, right, no matter how much it burns when you say it? Scheyer is gone, but they are so loaded with everybody else coming in, and the rumor is that incoming frosh PG Kyrie Irving is the best player on the Duke roster - and Singler is still here. About the only real issues are with Brian Zoubek and Lance Thomas gone there are some questions about Duke's toughness inside since they're all a bunch of dandies down in Durham. I'll also be curious to see how many games Seth Curry shoots the Devils right out of.
2. North Carolina Tar Heels. I hate putting them second since they didn't even bother to make the NCAA Tournament last season, but the talent level is there - at least on paper. Harrison Barnes is going to be a great one, Kevin Durant II, maybe, and Henson and Zellar are supposed to be star types as well. The real question, as it was last year, is what of the PG spot? Larry Drew was a disappointment most of last season, and I've read some are questioning if incoming freshman Kendall Marshall is really ACC material (and of course, the next thing you read says he's the best PG in this class). Projected starting shooting guard Will Graves was also just dismissed for the ever ubiquitous "violation of team rules" so there's even more uncertainty in the backcourt. Combine those questions with the thin frontcourt and although they have the talent and I'm picking them at #2 they also have to potential to fall apart for a second consecutive season. I'm hoping for the second one.
3. North Carolina State Wolfpack. This is the team I'll be rooting for out of the ACC this year, and they pretty much deserve to have a nice season. Sid Lowe hasn't show himself to necessarily be much of a game coach, which we are all pretty familiar with here in Minnesota, but his recruiting efforts are paying off. The Wolfpack landed one of the best classes in the country (ESPN ranks it as the 7th best) with power forward C.J. Leslie and guards Lorenzo Brown and Ryan Harrow all ranking in the top 37 in the country according to Rivals. With their All-ACC second team PF Tracy Smith back along with big-time shooter Scott Wood, all the talent is there for NC State to be relevant for the first time since Fire & Ice. Yes, Fire & Ice. You know you remember them.
4. Florida State Seminoles. There are plenty of question marks, but FSU also has some seriously top flight talent coming back, and this team continues to be a defensive powerhouse year-after-year, which means they always have a chance. Helping out would be some offensive firepower, and they have two guys with a chance to really bring it: Chris Singleton, a junior forward who can do it all, and Michael Snaer, a sophomore guard and great athlete who needs to improve his shot. Also look for Xavier Gibson to try to fill in for Solomon Alabi. He might end up as the biggest key to FSU's season. Also, literally since he's 6-11, 240.
5. Virginia Tech Hokies. They were going to be my sleeper and I was going to pick them second in the ACC for this year, but injuries have hurt their depth and although I fear I may be dropping them too far, I also think their depth behind Malcolm Delaney was their biggest strength. And there's no doubt Delaney is an ACC Player-of-the-Year candidate and a possible All-American, but it will be up to that supporting cast to take VT as far as they are going to go. The best news for the Hokies, however, is that they finally put together a decent non-conference schedule, so the annual tradition of coach Seth Greenberg bitching that his team deserves an NCAA bid despite not having played anybody out of conference all year should mercifully come to an end.
6. Maryland Terrapins. The Terps lose a ton, with three career 1,000 point scorers on their way out in dirty stud Greivis Vasquez, backcourt mate Eric Hayes, and swingman Landon Milbourne, but Gary Williams still has some good talent and also sweats a lot. Jordan Williams proved himself to be one of the best rebounders in the conference last year and has a very good all-around game, and Sean Mosley is one of those solid, all-around guards who score when needed, are smart with the ball, and grab too many rebounds for their size; an excellent complementary piece, but they need a star to team with Williams. The recruiting class is deep, but not exceptional at the top, so expect Maryland to be a solid, yet unspectacular team this year. Sort of like set-up man extraordinaire Scott Shields.
7. Miami Hurricanes. It's not often a team loses it's highest scoring guard (James Dews) and highest scoring post player (Dwayne Collins) and gets better without an outstanding recruiting class, but that may be the case for the Hurricanes this year thanks to Durand Scott. Don't forget that although Miami finished last in the ACC at 4-12 (way to go, Gophers) they did have a nice little run going in the ACC tournament beating Wake, Virginia Tech in a game the Hokies needed desperately, and losing by just three to Duke, and the biggest reason for their success in two of those three games was the play of Scott. He's not much of a shooter (just 29% from three on just 58 attempts), but if he ever adds that piece to his game he could end up an all-league type of player, or get good enough to transfer like Denis Clemente did.
8. Virginia Cavaliers. Most of the positive affects of hiring Tony Bennett won't be felt until his recruiting classes have more time to gel, particularly with Sylvan Landesburg no longer being on the team, and last year was pretty meh but I have a hunch this year the Cavaliers are going to be tough and knock off a team or two they shouldn't (please not the Gophers please). A large and talented class of freshmen, led by guards K.T. Harrell (#30 recruit by Rivals) and Joe Harris (#119) and forwards James Johnson (#108) and Will Regan (#148), will join an established star, if second tier one, in forward Mike Scott and two other returning starters. That's a lot of talent in Charlottesville, more than we've seen in quite some time. They probably aren't ready to be truly dangerous yet, but they're going to be pesky. You watch. If they don't knock off more than one top 25 team this year I'll send everyone who remembers this prediction a token of my shame as an act of contrition.
9. Boston College Eagles. Most of the squad is back from last season, with just the transferring Rakim Sanders missing, but the problem is what's left just isn't all that exciting. Joe Trapani is already an excellent all-around player and should thrive in new coach Steve Donahue's offense, and there are a couple of other decent players but the team is thin, both in bodies and in talent. Donahue is already paying dividends on the recruiting trail (one site I saw has them with the #17 recruiting class in the country for next year) so things should turn around soon for B.C., just not this year.
10. Clemson Tigers. Nearly everybody is back from last year's NCAA team, but the one guy missing is going to be very difficult to replace in Trevor Booker, who was top 10 last year in the ACC in scoring, rebounding, and field goal percentage, even if they do have his little brother. Booker basically carried that team last season, and it may be up to the only other double-digit scorer from last year, point man Demontez Stitt, to carry them this year. He did score 21 in their NCAA Tournament loss to Missouri, but reached 20 points just two other times last year, and doesn't average many assists for a point guard (just 3.1 apg). Really there is a lot of blah talent here, and unless somebody takes a big leap forward the Tigers' streak of three straight NCAA Tourny bids will end at three.
11. Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets. The Jackets have a lineup of guards that could potentially be as good as any group in the country. Mfon Udofia, Iman Shumpert, Brian Oliver, and Glen Rice, Jr. was a nice group last year and will be outstanding this year. Unfortunately, there's nothing in the front court after Derrick Favors and Gani Lawal took off for the NBA and Zack Peacock graduated, so it's going to be awfully difficult to compete. The only non-freshman over 6'-6" is seven-footer Brad Sheehan whose scored less than a hundred points in his combined three years, and the freshman aren't exactly superstars, with one who redshirted last year because he wasn't ready and another coming off a torn ACL. It's going to be a rough year in Atlanta (although honestly when isn't it? Talk about murder-happy people, sheesh), but with the shooting and perimeter skills of the guards they might shock a team here and there.
12. Wake Forest Demon Deacons. At least the Jackets have their guards, the Demon Deacons can't even say they have that with the losses of Al-Farouq Aminu, Ishmael Smith, Chas McFarland, and LD Williams, leaving them with just C.J. Harris (9.9 ppg) as their only returning scorer. There is a good recruiting class coming in to Winston-Salem with four players in Rivals top 100 arriving on campus this year so the future looks bright, but this is going to be a pretty awful team this season. I mean, like, Dan Monson's Gophers terrible. Yes, for real.
Other Previews:
The Big 12
1. Duke Blue Devils. I mean, you pretty much have to pick them first, right, no matter how much it burns when you say it? Scheyer is gone, but they are so loaded with everybody else coming in, and the rumor is that incoming frosh PG Kyrie Irving is the best player on the Duke roster - and Singler is still here. About the only real issues are with Brian Zoubek and Lance Thomas gone there are some questions about Duke's toughness inside since they're all a bunch of dandies down in Durham. I'll also be curious to see how many games Seth Curry shoots the Devils right out of.
2. North Carolina Tar Heels. I hate putting them second since they didn't even bother to make the NCAA Tournament last season, but the talent level is there - at least on paper. Harrison Barnes is going to be a great one, Kevin Durant II, maybe, and Henson and Zellar are supposed to be star types as well. The real question, as it was last year, is what of the PG spot? Larry Drew was a disappointment most of last season, and I've read some are questioning if incoming freshman Kendall Marshall is really ACC material (and of course, the next thing you read says he's the best PG in this class). Projected starting shooting guard Will Graves was also just dismissed for the ever ubiquitous "violation of team rules" so there's even more uncertainty in the backcourt. Combine those questions with the thin frontcourt and although they have the talent and I'm picking them at #2 they also have to potential to fall apart for a second consecutive season. I'm hoping for the second one.
3. North Carolina State Wolfpack. This is the team I'll be rooting for out of the ACC this year, and they pretty much deserve to have a nice season. Sid Lowe hasn't show himself to necessarily be much of a game coach, which we are all pretty familiar with here in Minnesota, but his recruiting efforts are paying off. The Wolfpack landed one of the best classes in the country (ESPN ranks it as the 7th best) with power forward C.J. Leslie and guards Lorenzo Brown and Ryan Harrow all ranking in the top 37 in the country according to Rivals. With their All-ACC second team PF Tracy Smith back along with big-time shooter Scott Wood, all the talent is there for NC State to be relevant for the first time since Fire & Ice. Yes, Fire & Ice. You know you remember them.
4. Florida State Seminoles. There are plenty of question marks, but FSU also has some seriously top flight talent coming back, and this team continues to be a defensive powerhouse year-after-year, which means they always have a chance. Helping out would be some offensive firepower, and they have two guys with a chance to really bring it: Chris Singleton, a junior forward who can do it all, and Michael Snaer, a sophomore guard and great athlete who needs to improve his shot. Also look for Xavier Gibson to try to fill in for Solomon Alabi. He might end up as the biggest key to FSU's season. Also, literally since he's 6-11, 240.
5. Virginia Tech Hokies. They were going to be my sleeper and I was going to pick them second in the ACC for this year, but injuries have hurt their depth and although I fear I may be dropping them too far, I also think their depth behind Malcolm Delaney was their biggest strength. And there's no doubt Delaney is an ACC Player-of-the-Year candidate and a possible All-American, but it will be up to that supporting cast to take VT as far as they are going to go. The best news for the Hokies, however, is that they finally put together a decent non-conference schedule, so the annual tradition of coach Seth Greenberg bitching that his team deserves an NCAA bid despite not having played anybody out of conference all year should mercifully come to an end.
6. Maryland Terrapins. The Terps lose a ton, with three career 1,000 point scorers on their way out in dirty stud Greivis Vasquez, backcourt mate Eric Hayes, and swingman Landon Milbourne, but Gary Williams still has some good talent and also sweats a lot. Jordan Williams proved himself to be one of the best rebounders in the conference last year and has a very good all-around game, and Sean Mosley is one of those solid, all-around guards who score when needed, are smart with the ball, and grab too many rebounds for their size; an excellent complementary piece, but they need a star to team with Williams. The recruiting class is deep, but not exceptional at the top, so expect Maryland to be a solid, yet unspectacular team this year. Sort of like set-up man extraordinaire Scott Shields.
7. Miami Hurricanes. It's not often a team loses it's highest scoring guard (James Dews) and highest scoring post player (Dwayne Collins) and gets better without an outstanding recruiting class, but that may be the case for the Hurricanes this year thanks to Durand Scott. Don't forget that although Miami finished last in the ACC at 4-12 (way to go, Gophers) they did have a nice little run going in the ACC tournament beating Wake, Virginia Tech in a game the Hokies needed desperately, and losing by just three to Duke, and the biggest reason for their success in two of those three games was the play of Scott. He's not much of a shooter (just 29% from three on just 58 attempts), but if he ever adds that piece to his game he could end up an all-league type of player, or get good enough to transfer like Denis Clemente did.
8. Virginia Cavaliers. Most of the positive affects of hiring Tony Bennett won't be felt until his recruiting classes have more time to gel, particularly with Sylvan Landesburg no longer being on the team, and last year was pretty meh but I have a hunch this year the Cavaliers are going to be tough and knock off a team or two they shouldn't (please not the Gophers please). A large and talented class of freshmen, led by guards K.T. Harrell (#30 recruit by Rivals) and Joe Harris (#119) and forwards James Johnson (#108) and Will Regan (#148), will join an established star, if second tier one, in forward Mike Scott and two other returning starters. That's a lot of talent in Charlottesville, more than we've seen in quite some time. They probably aren't ready to be truly dangerous yet, but they're going to be pesky. You watch. If they don't knock off more than one top 25 team this year I'll send everyone who remembers this prediction a token of my shame as an act of contrition.
9. Boston College Eagles. Most of the squad is back from last season, with just the transferring Rakim Sanders missing, but the problem is what's left just isn't all that exciting. Joe Trapani is already an excellent all-around player and should thrive in new coach Steve Donahue's offense, and there are a couple of other decent players but the team is thin, both in bodies and in talent. Donahue is already paying dividends on the recruiting trail (one site I saw has them with the #17 recruiting class in the country for next year) so things should turn around soon for B.C., just not this year.
10. Clemson Tigers. Nearly everybody is back from last year's NCAA team, but the one guy missing is going to be very difficult to replace in Trevor Booker, who was top 10 last year in the ACC in scoring, rebounding, and field goal percentage, even if they do have his little brother. Booker basically carried that team last season, and it may be up to the only other double-digit scorer from last year, point man Demontez Stitt, to carry them this year. He did score 21 in their NCAA Tournament loss to Missouri, but reached 20 points just two other times last year, and doesn't average many assists for a point guard (just 3.1 apg). Really there is a lot of blah talent here, and unless somebody takes a big leap forward the Tigers' streak of three straight NCAA Tourny bids will end at three.
11. Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets. The Jackets have a lineup of guards that could potentially be as good as any group in the country. Mfon Udofia, Iman Shumpert, Brian Oliver, and Glen Rice, Jr. was a nice group last year and will be outstanding this year. Unfortunately, there's nothing in the front court after Derrick Favors and Gani Lawal took off for the NBA and Zack Peacock graduated, so it's going to be awfully difficult to compete. The only non-freshman over 6'-6" is seven-footer Brad Sheehan whose scored less than a hundred points in his combined three years, and the freshman aren't exactly superstars, with one who redshirted last year because he wasn't ready and another coming off a torn ACL. It's going to be a rough year in Atlanta (although honestly when isn't it? Talk about murder-happy people, sheesh), but with the shooting and perimeter skills of the guards they might shock a team here and there.
12. Wake Forest Demon Deacons. At least the Jackets have their guards, the Demon Deacons can't even say they have that with the losses of Al-Farouq Aminu, Ishmael Smith, Chas McFarland, and LD Williams, leaving them with just C.J. Harris (9.9 ppg) as their only returning scorer. There is a good recruiting class coming in to Winston-Salem with four players in Rivals top 100 arriving on campus this year so the future looks bright, but this is going to be a pretty awful team this season. I mean, like, Dan Monson's Gophers terrible. Yes, for real.
Other Previews:
The Big 12
Wednesday, December 2, 2009
Yo I'm Here (Gophers vs. Miami)
Ok, so maybe I exaggerated a bit. Turns out I will have time to post on tonight's game, but only the second half. Because of the early start, I was on WonderbabyTM duty and sort of caught the first half in bits and pieces between "fishing" and "playing blocks" and other various wonders of the baby variety.
The Gophers lead 30-25, and here is what I was able to tell:
1. Al Nolen is playing his best game of the year.
2. Miami is really sloppy with the ball.
3. Rodney Williams is really bad at free throws.
4. Miami is more athletic and it shows on the boards and when they drive to the rim, but luckily they hit a bunch of threes early, have fallen in love with the outside shot, and haven't gotten inside nearly enough.
5. Not nearly enough touches for Ralph.
So now WonderbabyTM is in bed, the wife is in the other room watching god knows what kind of crap on our brand new TV, and I'm holed up in the bedroom watching the Gophers on a 13 inch screen. But I am watching. Go
19:41 - Miami immediately tries to drive the ball, gets repelled, and then settles for a horrible three-point attempt that lodges between the rim and the backboard like a Rod-Will free throw. I like this.
18:56 - Ralphie dunk on another great assist by Nolen. THIS is what he needs to be. It's freaking glorious when he does this - I just wish it happened more often.
17:00 - Gophers miss a couple in the lane and an open jumper, shades of the Portland game. This team is very good at getting quality shots, they just aren't very good at getting them to fall. I'm going to consider this a positive though, because they eventually have to hit, right? RIGHT?
16:40 - Is this guys' name Duece? That would be sweet.
16:25 - Ralphie jumper! Unstoppable.
16:13 - I looked it up, and his name is Dews. That's disappointing. Also disappointing? This 23-10 rebound edge the Hurricanes have. How is that even possible? They're shooting 38%. In 24 minutes o fgame play don't you think you'd get more than 10 rebounds by accident?
15:38 - They can't guard Nolen. Their only chance is to just let him shoot instead of pass. Remember how far off of Rondo the Bulls played in 2008? That should be the defensive strategy here for the Canes. I also want to use this space to point out to you that every single girl named either Casey or Cassie is hot. It's true. See:
15:30 - Oh, so apparently thanks to work I totally missed that Royce White pled guilty to something. Now I'm going to have to spend my free time looking it up. Maybe I'll just text Snacks.
14:15 - Damian with an offensive tip in. Announcer guy wants us to know he has great length. I'm sorry but I laughed. The Canes tie it on another launched three (you guys go ahead and keep launching) but Hoff gives the lead back with a three of his own on yet another assist from Al freaking Nolen. That's got to be at least 20 for him already. He's the next Scott Skiles.
12:38 - Another chucked three missed by Miami. Good god who coaches this team, Beilein? I'm going to have to look this up now and see if this is just a team strategy.
11:31 - Does anybody else think maybe Paul Carter, Rodney Williams, and probably Damian Johnson should maybe not shoot three-pointers? Am I even allowed to talk badly about DJ? I feel really guilty right now.
10:44 - Canes take the lead 43-42 on another three pointer. This one was open. And since I know you've been waiting, it turns out Miami is in the upper 20% of teams in terms of how often they shoot threes. Even more interesting, they actually have the 7th best shooting percentage of all teams on 2-pointers, but are 129th in 3-point percentage. So yes, by all means stay on the perimeter.
10:30 - Whoa, how did Illinois get back in that game against Clemson? Last I saw, the Illini were down 20. Now they're down just five. It makes me physically angry at myself how much I want the Big Ten to win this. And it's not even from a rational mind as in raising the conferences RPI in order to help the Gophers get to the NCAA Tournament, it's just from some kind of conference pride. When did I turn into my father? I hate all the other Big Ten teams.
8:55 - Devoe with back-to-back threes to put the Gophers back up one. Take that, three-point chucking jerks. Maple Leaf power and all that shit. Speaking of swearing, I'm reading the Bill Simmons basketball book right now, and it's weird because he swears in it. Not a lot, and not excessively, but just occassionally enough. It's like you're reading one of his columns (back when he still wrote them) with all it's homerism and arrogance but still damn entertaining, and then he drops a shit or a fuck on you. Jarring.
7:57 - Since I didn't write a preview, here's your MIAMI FUN FACT: Rick Barry not only holds every scoring, scoring average, and rebounding record at the school (game, season, career), he also holds the top eight single season scoring marks in the school's history.
7:39 - Westbrook just airballed a 12 footer with the Gophers down one. What. The. Fuck.
7:12 - Terrible defense on a high screen. No help, no switch, no step out - not even a show by whoever the big guy was whose man set the screen. I don't have Tivo in this room so I can't rewind, but I'm going to assume it was definitely not a lapse by Ralph.
6:03 - Nolen continues to be unguardable, and continues to get guys open shots. And they continue to be missed. I'm starting to think maybe that 15-footer isn't in Ralph's range. But it's so pretty and so smooth. He's like the next Sam Perkins, but without the three-point range. Yet.
5:51 - Tie ballgame, Gophers go to a full-court press and force Miami to take a timeout. I like this. The Canes have been very sloppy with the ball all game, could be a good gamble here. Or it could lead to thousands upon thousands of open three-pointers. Also my new boss used the word "irregardless" when talking to me today, and I'm 99.9% sure he wasn't trying to be funny. It took every ounce of willpower I had to not say anything.
4:45 - I'm about 90% sure Malcolm Grant could go by Devoe just as easily as Nolen has been going buy everybody tonight. Luckily he has chosen not to so far. And as I've been typing this Damian Johnson missed two free throws and Devoe airballed a three-pointer. Bad omens.
2:57 - So I know Westbrook leads the Gophers in scoring and all tonight, but boy does he seem lost out there a bit. I guess it's a nice improvement from last year, when he would seem lost and just stand around and do nothing. And he just missed a pretty huge jumper. Gophers down 55-53, Miami ball, 1:30 left.
0:42 - Westbrook turnover. Gophers down four and now need to foul. We're kind of in miracle territory here. Somebody please go back in time to when I said I felt like Westbrook was in for a special kind of senior year and kick me in the nuts. This more like Corky-special, not the good kind of special.
0:37 - Or, instead of fouling, they could let the Canes baseball pass it over their heads for a dunk, then turn it over without getting a shot, and give up a three-point play and suddenly be down by 8 with only 28 seconds left.
0:00 - Sigh. Gophers lose . Yet again, another missed opportunity to get a quality win, their last chance before conference play. Similar to the Portland and Texas A&M games, this isn't going to go down as a bad loss, but it's another whiff on a chance to get a marquee win, which could come back to haunt them. That's less margin for error in the conference games.
I'm really just so disappointed. Four big chances for big non-conference wins, four winnable games, and a 1-3 record. Damn it.
The Gophers lead 30-25, and here is what I was able to tell:
1. Al Nolen is playing his best game of the year.
2. Miami is really sloppy with the ball.
3. Rodney Williams is really bad at free throws.
4. Miami is more athletic and it shows on the boards and when they drive to the rim, but luckily they hit a bunch of threes early, have fallen in love with the outside shot, and haven't gotten inside nearly enough.
5. Not nearly enough touches for Ralph.
So now WonderbabyTM is in bed, the wife is in the other room watching god knows what kind of crap on our brand new TV, and I'm holed up in the bedroom watching the Gophers on a 13 inch screen. But I am watching. Go
19:41 - Miami immediately tries to drive the ball, gets repelled, and then settles for a horrible three-point attempt that lodges between the rim and the backboard like a Rod-Will free throw. I like this.
18:56 - Ralphie dunk on another great assist by Nolen. THIS is what he needs to be. It's freaking glorious when he does this - I just wish it happened more often.
17:00 - Gophers miss a couple in the lane and an open jumper, shades of the Portland game. This team is very good at getting quality shots, they just aren't very good at getting them to fall. I'm going to consider this a positive though, because they eventually have to hit, right? RIGHT?
16:40 - Is this guys' name Duece? That would be sweet.
16:25 - Ralphie jumper! Unstoppable.
16:13 - I looked it up, and his name is Dews. That's disappointing. Also disappointing? This 23-10 rebound edge the Hurricanes have. How is that even possible? They're shooting 38%. In 24 minutes o fgame play don't you think you'd get more than 10 rebounds by accident?
15:38 - They can't guard Nolen. Their only chance is to just let him shoot instead of pass. Remember how far off of Rondo the Bulls played in 2008? That should be the defensive strategy here for the Canes. I also want to use this space to point out to you that every single girl named either Casey or Cassie is hot. It's true. See:
15:30 - Oh, so apparently thanks to work I totally missed that Royce White pled guilty to something. Now I'm going to have to spend my free time looking it up. Maybe I'll just text Snacks.
14:15 - Damian with an offensive tip in. Announcer guy wants us to know he has great length. I'm sorry but I laughed. The Canes tie it on another launched three (you guys go ahead and keep launching) but Hoff gives the lead back with a three of his own on yet another assist from Al freaking Nolen. That's got to be at least 20 for him already. He's the next Scott Skiles.
12:38 - Another chucked three missed by Miami. Good god who coaches this team, Beilein? I'm going to have to look this up now and see if this is just a team strategy.
11:31 - Does anybody else think maybe Paul Carter, Rodney Williams, and probably Damian Johnson should maybe not shoot three-pointers? Am I even allowed to talk badly about DJ? I feel really guilty right now.
10:44 - Canes take the lead 43-42 on another three pointer. This one was open. And since I know you've been waiting, it turns out Miami is in the upper 20% of teams in terms of how often they shoot threes. Even more interesting, they actually have the 7th best shooting percentage of all teams on 2-pointers, but are 129th in 3-point percentage. So yes, by all means stay on the perimeter.
10:30 - Whoa, how did Illinois get back in that game against Clemson? Last I saw, the Illini were down 20. Now they're down just five. It makes me physically angry at myself how much I want the Big Ten to win this. And it's not even from a rational mind as in raising the conferences RPI in order to help the Gophers get to the NCAA Tournament, it's just from some kind of conference pride. When did I turn into my father? I hate all the other Big Ten teams.
8:55 - Devoe with back-to-back threes to put the Gophers back up one. Take that, three-point chucking jerks. Maple Leaf power and all that shit. Speaking of swearing, I'm reading the Bill Simmons basketball book right now, and it's weird because he swears in it. Not a lot, and not excessively, but just occassionally enough. It's like you're reading one of his columns (back when he still wrote them) with all it's homerism and arrogance but still damn entertaining, and then he drops a shit or a fuck on you. Jarring.
7:57 - Since I didn't write a preview, here's your MIAMI FUN FACT: Rick Barry not only holds every scoring, scoring average, and rebounding record at the school (game, season, career), he also holds the top eight single season scoring marks in the school's history.
7:39 - Westbrook just airballed a 12 footer with the Gophers down one. What. The. Fuck.
7:12 - Terrible defense on a high screen. No help, no switch, no step out - not even a show by whoever the big guy was whose man set the screen. I don't have Tivo in this room so I can't rewind, but I'm going to assume it was definitely not a lapse by Ralph.
6:03 - Nolen continues to be unguardable, and continues to get guys open shots. And they continue to be missed. I'm starting to think maybe that 15-footer isn't in Ralph's range. But it's so pretty and so smooth. He's like the next Sam Perkins, but without the three-point range. Yet.
5:51 - Tie ballgame, Gophers go to a full-court press and force Miami to take a timeout. I like this. The Canes have been very sloppy with the ball all game, could be a good gamble here. Or it could lead to thousands upon thousands of open three-pointers. Also my new boss used the word "irregardless" when talking to me today, and I'm 99.9% sure he wasn't trying to be funny. It took every ounce of willpower I had to not say anything.
4:45 - I'm about 90% sure Malcolm Grant could go by Devoe just as easily as Nolen has been going buy everybody tonight. Luckily he has chosen not to so far. And as I've been typing this Damian Johnson missed two free throws and Devoe airballed a three-pointer. Bad omens.
2:57 - So I know Westbrook leads the Gophers in scoring and all tonight, but boy does he seem lost out there a bit. I guess it's a nice improvement from last year, when he would seem lost and just stand around and do nothing. And he just missed a pretty huge jumper. Gophers down 55-53, Miami ball, 1:30 left.
0:42 - Westbrook turnover. Gophers down four and now need to foul. We're kind of in miracle territory here. Somebody please go back in time to when I said I felt like Westbrook was in for a special kind of senior year and kick me in the nuts. This more like Corky-special, not the good kind of special.
0:37 - Or, instead of fouling, they could let the Canes baseball pass it over their heads for a dunk, then turn it over without getting a shot, and give up a three-point play and suddenly be down by 8 with only 28 seconds left.
0:00 - Sigh. Gophers lose . Yet again, another missed opportunity to get a quality win, their last chance before conference play. Similar to the Portland and Texas A&M games, this isn't going to go down as a bad loss, but it's another whiff on a chance to get a marquee win, which could come back to haunt them. That's less margin for error in the conference games.
I'm really just so disappointed. Four big chances for big non-conference wins, four winnable games, and a 1-3 record. Damn it.
Friday, October 9, 2009
College Basketball Preview: ACC
Remember at the end of the Mountain West Review where I said I was going to get less fact, number, and research intensive? Yeah, I'm still going to keep that going. It's much easier for me, and probably a better read for you. Plus, it lessons the chances of me getting attacked by rabid fans of whichever conference I review, and my feelings are already a little bruised after a Dayton fan said I probably live in a trailer. I'm still trying to get over that one. Why don't people realize that words hurt?
1. Duke. More like Puke, am I right? Seriously I hate putting these guys first, I just hate it, but I think they're the team to beat while the Heels figure out their new team. In a bit of a switch, the Devils will be thin in the back court this season, with just Nolan Smith, Jon Scheyer, and graduated from high school a year early guy and big time recruit Andre Dawkins. Luckily for them they have a whole bunch of big tall white guys who like to play on the perimeter and are comfortable handling the ball, as usual, so lack of guard depth shouldn't hurt in the half court, at least. That group includes Kyle Singler, the preseason favorite for ACC Player of the Year.
2. North Carolina. Losing Hansbrough, Lawson, Ellington, and Green gives the Heels a lot to replace, but as you would expect there's a whole other group here ready to step in. How good can Ed Davis be? We'll find out. I remember last recruiting season it was Ed Davis this and Ed Davis that and blah blah blah. He will be counted on to be a big part of the offense. The Heels recruiting class is loaded, with all five guys in the Rivals top 70. Carolina will be loaded with big guys, with leading returning scorer Deon Thompson back, Davis, and three of the recruits 6-10 or bigger, headlined by John Henson who was described by Athlon as a "game-changing talent." The key might be PG Larry Drew, the only real PG on the roster and a top recruit two seasons ago who was sheltered behind Lawson.
3. Georgia Tech. "Georgia Tech?" is probably what you are saying right now, but you best believe the Jackets are ready to make a run. They bring in an outstanding recruiting class, including Rivals #3 overall Derrick Favors, a 6-9 center out of Georgia and the next Ralph Sampson III, as well as two guys the Gophers were looking at: PG Mfon Udofia (#32) and Glen Rice, Jr. (#45). With Gani Lawal's surprise decision to not enter the NBA draft and Iman Shumpert also back, the Jackets have as much talent as anybody (well, other than UNC or Duke). Sadly, there is not a point guard from NYC on the roster, but one of the other newcomers this year is named Brian Oliver, so they got that going for them.
4. Maryland. Grievis Vasquez is still around?!!?!?! Guy is on the Wade Lookingbill/Brian Cardinal program apparently - except he's talented. Very talented, very good all-around player, and a flat-out stud, as shown by his triple-double against North Carolina last year, as well as several other near triple doubles. The Terps have almost everybody back from last year, but don't have a secondary star to compliment Vasquez. If one of the returners or top 100 recruit Jordan Williams can elevate their game to help him, Maryland might have a sweet 16 run in them.
5. Clemson. It's tough to know what to make of the Tigers. Losing both K.C. Rivers and his-range-starts-when-he-enters-the-gym-type Terrence Oglesby weakens their perimeter, but they still bring back superstud post player Trevor Booker. He can not only score, but he's one of the best rebounders in the country. McDonald's All-American Milton Jennings joins up to help solidify the paint, but, like UNC, point guard play will determine how far Clemson can go. Hopefully Oglesby enjoys Europe, his loss certainly weakens their hopes.
6. Florida State. Toney Douglas is gone. Wow, how weird is that? Dude seemed like he had been around forever, but I never got sick of him - now the Seminoles need to start life without him and they have a pretty good base to work from. As usual they will still have a bunch of athletes, starting with 6-9 wing Chris Singleton and 7-1 beast inside Soloman Alabi. Perhaps most exciting, however, is #7 recruit in the country Michael Snaer, a combo guard who was the California Player of the Year, will be lacing them up for FSU despite offers from UCLA and Kansas. He should give Henson and Favors a run for ACC Freshman of the Year, and gives the Seminoles a chance to win on any night.
7. Virginia Tech. This is a team that I can see ending up higher than 7th, but right now I'm putting them here because this is where they ended up and I don't feel like cutting and pasting anything right now. They lose their leading scorer in A.D. Vassallo, but returning guard Malcolm Delaney is a pimp and forward Jeff Allen is a beast down low, giving them an excellent inside-outside tandem. The Hokies have been an NIT staple the last few years (other than '07), but if those two can get a little help from someone else the NCAA Tournament is certainly within reach.
8. Wake Forest. Last year the Demon Deacons raced out to a 16-0 record and a #1 ranking in the polls before coming back to earth and then flaming out in the NCAA tournament with a first round loss to Cleveland State. This year they will have a tougher road ahead, losing their two leading scorers, James Johnson and Jeff Teague, off to the NBA. Luckily, they still have hyper athletic and likely lottery pick next year Al-Farouq Aminu to work with. They should be a very athletic team once again this year, but a mediocre recruiting class on top of losing their two studs means a step back.
9. Miami. I'm going to have to be honest with you here - I don't think I've seen a Miami game in two years. Usually I've seen almost ever team, particularly from the power conferences, at least once or so a year, but somehow I've missed the Canes. I know they lose Jack McClinton, who was their stud for a couple of years, and that certainly can't help. The things I'm reading say that they have some pretty talented pieces and might be better than they were last year, but since I've never heard of any of these people I don't really know. and I assume they'll lose a player or two to some sort of suspension since Miami is full of criminals. Wow, I should really get to know this team better before they play the Gophers December 2nd.
10. Boston College. The Eagles were in a lot of ways a one-man show last season, and with Tyrese Rice now gone, some of those bit parts need to become major cogs. BC does have two really interesting players, both oversized wing guys who can score inside or out in 6-8 Joe Trapani and 6-5 Rakim Sanders - who was a big part of their upset win of UNC at Chapel Hill last year. Their issue is with lackluster post play, and with no new signees for this season they'll be relying on the same guys; foul-prone center Josh Southern and undersized PF Corey Raji, whose improvement might be the key for this season.
11. Virginia. Tony Bennett is the new coach in Virginia, so you can expect the Cavaliers to get very slow and very boring in the near future. For now, Sylvan Landesburg is an incredible player, but he needs a J.R. Reynolds to go with his Sean Singletary, or a Curtis Staples to go with his Harold Deane. Yes, I'm trying to say he needs help. Top 100 recruit Tristan Spurlock, a 6-8 wing from Virginia who was recruited hard by Georgetown, could be what he needs, but I don't see much improvement this year. Bennett will make a difference, as boring as he his, but it will take time.
12. NC State. Man, has the this program taken a down turn in the last three years, and with their top three scorers gone to graduation it's not going to get any better this year. Tracy Smith looks like he's going to end up being a very good player, but there's not much else here to get excited about. Sid Lowe is still around, and he brings in good size and a couple highly regarded players in PF Richard Howell (Rivals #61) and C DeShawn Painter (#127), but took a big hit when PG Lorenzo Brown (#37) failed to qualify academically and had to go to prep school. The school seems to believe in Lowe, and with girls like those above I doubt anybody is even paying attention to the court.
So there you have it. The ACC is always competitive, always tough, and always one of the best conferences in the nation and it should be the same again last year. And with that I'm off to Portland for a well-deserved vacation until Wednesday, so I won't be around to either comment on the Twins/Yankees series or defend myself against the inevitable hate mail that will follow from this preview. Hopefully Dawger, Snake, or Sidler will write a Twins post or two, but those guys are pretty much lazy sacks of crap who are borderline illiterate, so I wouldn't bet on it.
Other Previews:
Conference USA
Atlantic 10
Mountain West
1. Duke. More like Puke, am I right? Seriously I hate putting these guys first, I just hate it, but I think they're the team to beat while the Heels figure out their new team. In a bit of a switch, the Devils will be thin in the back court this season, with just Nolan Smith, Jon Scheyer, and graduated from high school a year early guy and big time recruit Andre Dawkins. Luckily for them they have a whole bunch of big tall white guys who like to play on the perimeter and are comfortable handling the ball, as usual, so lack of guard depth shouldn't hurt in the half court, at least. That group includes Kyle Singler, the preseason favorite for ACC Player of the Year.
2. North Carolina. Losing Hansbrough, Lawson, Ellington, and Green gives the Heels a lot to replace, but as you would expect there's a whole other group here ready to step in. How good can Ed Davis be? We'll find out. I remember last recruiting season it was Ed Davis this and Ed Davis that and blah blah blah. He will be counted on to be a big part of the offense. The Heels recruiting class is loaded, with all five guys in the Rivals top 70. Carolina will be loaded with big guys, with leading returning scorer Deon Thompson back, Davis, and three of the recruits 6-10 or bigger, headlined by John Henson who was described by Athlon as a "game-changing talent." The key might be PG Larry Drew, the only real PG on the roster and a top recruit two seasons ago who was sheltered behind Lawson.
3. Georgia Tech. "Georgia Tech?" is probably what you are saying right now, but you best believe the Jackets are ready to make a run. They bring in an outstanding recruiting class, including Rivals #3 overall Derrick Favors, a 6-9 center out of Georgia and the next Ralph Sampson III, as well as two guys the Gophers were looking at: PG Mfon Udofia (#32) and Glen Rice, Jr. (#45). With Gani Lawal's surprise decision to not enter the NBA draft and Iman Shumpert also back, the Jackets have as much talent as anybody (well, other than UNC or Duke). Sadly, there is not a point guard from NYC on the roster, but one of the other newcomers this year is named Brian Oliver, so they got that going for them.
4. Maryland. Grievis Vasquez is still around?!!?!?! Guy is on the Wade Lookingbill/Brian Cardinal program apparently - except he's talented. Very talented, very good all-around player, and a flat-out stud, as shown by his triple-double against North Carolina last year, as well as several other near triple doubles. The Terps have almost everybody back from last year, but don't have a secondary star to compliment Vasquez. If one of the returners or top 100 recruit Jordan Williams can elevate their game to help him, Maryland might have a sweet 16 run in them.
5. Clemson. It's tough to know what to make of the Tigers. Losing both K.C. Rivers and his-range-starts-when-he-enters-the-gym-type Terrence Oglesby weakens their perimeter, but they still bring back superstud post player Trevor Booker. He can not only score, but he's one of the best rebounders in the country. McDonald's All-American Milton Jennings joins up to help solidify the paint, but, like UNC, point guard play will determine how far Clemson can go. Hopefully Oglesby enjoys Europe, his loss certainly weakens their hopes.
7. Virginia Tech. This is a team that I can see ending up higher than 7th, but right now I'm putting them here because this is where they ended up and I don't feel like cutting and pasting anything right now. They lose their leading scorer in A.D. Vassallo, but returning guard Malcolm Delaney is a pimp and forward Jeff Allen is a beast down low, giving them an excellent inside-outside tandem. The Hokies have been an NIT staple the last few years (other than '07), but if those two can get a little help from someone else the NCAA Tournament is certainly within reach.
8. Wake Forest. Last year the Demon Deacons raced out to a 16-0 record and a #1 ranking in the polls before coming back to earth and then flaming out in the NCAA tournament with a first round loss to Cleveland State. This year they will have a tougher road ahead, losing their two leading scorers, James Johnson and Jeff Teague, off to the NBA. Luckily, they still have hyper athletic and likely lottery pick next year Al-Farouq Aminu to work with. They should be a very athletic team once again this year, but a mediocre recruiting class on top of losing their two studs means a step back.
9. Miami. I'm going to have to be honest with you here - I don't think I've seen a Miami game in two years. Usually I've seen almost ever team, particularly from the power conferences, at least once or so a year, but somehow I've missed the Canes. I know they lose Jack McClinton, who was their stud for a couple of years, and that certainly can't help. The things I'm reading say that they have some pretty talented pieces and might be better than they were last year, but since I've never heard of any of these people I don't really know. and I assume they'll lose a player or two to some sort of suspension since Miami is full of criminals. Wow, I should really get to know this team better before they play the Gophers December 2nd.
10. Boston College. The Eagles were in a lot of ways a one-man show last season, and with Tyrese Rice now gone, some of those bit parts need to become major cogs. BC does have two really interesting players, both oversized wing guys who can score inside or out in 6-8 Joe Trapani and 6-5 Rakim Sanders - who was a big part of their upset win of UNC at Chapel Hill last year. Their issue is with lackluster post play, and with no new signees for this season they'll be relying on the same guys; foul-prone center Josh Southern and undersized PF Corey Raji, whose improvement might be the key for this season.
11. Virginia. Tony Bennett is the new coach in Virginia, so you can expect the Cavaliers to get very slow and very boring in the near future. For now, Sylvan Landesburg is an incredible player, but he needs a J.R. Reynolds to go with his Sean Singletary, or a Curtis Staples to go with his Harold Deane. Yes, I'm trying to say he needs help. Top 100 recruit Tristan Spurlock, a 6-8 wing from Virginia who was recruited hard by Georgetown, could be what he needs, but I don't see much improvement this year. Bennett will make a difference, as boring as he his, but it will take time.
12. NC State. Man, has the this program taken a down turn in the last three years, and with their top three scorers gone to graduation it's not going to get any better this year. Tracy Smith looks like he's going to end up being a very good player, but there's not much else here to get excited about. Sid Lowe is still around, and he brings in good size and a couple highly regarded players in PF Richard Howell (Rivals #61) and C DeShawn Painter (#127), but took a big hit when PG Lorenzo Brown (#37) failed to qualify academically and had to go to prep school. The school seems to believe in Lowe, and with girls like those above I doubt anybody is even paying attention to the court.
So there you have it. The ACC is always competitive, always tough, and always one of the best conferences in the nation and it should be the same again last year. And with that I'm off to Portland for a well-deserved vacation until Wednesday, so I won't be around to either comment on the Twins/Yankees series or defend myself against the inevitable hate mail that will follow from this preview. Hopefully Dawger, Snake, or Sidler will write a Twins post or two, but those guys are pretty much lazy sacks of crap who are borderline illiterate, so I wouldn't bet on it.
Other Previews:
Conference USA
Atlantic 10
Mountain West
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