Week in Review: 2-27/2012

I have no idea what to say or how to say it.  We've been down this road again and again and written this same recap again and again.  That was just an embarrassing loss, particularly when the season was on the line (as thin as that line may have been) and it was a home game against a team you've already beaten on the road.  To get absolutely blown out in a must-win home game sends pretty much the loudest message possible to the committee that you don't belong in the NCAA Tournament.  Even winning out the last two and making a run to the conference tournament final probably isn't enough anymore, but we don't really have to worry about it because there is zero chance this team can win at Wisconsin.  They've checked out.

I don't think they've checked out on Tubby, but they've certainly checked out on this season.  The body language says it all, and Ralph's 1-11 shooting performance on Sunday basically sums it up.  This is a defeated team, and Tubby feels it as well.  At this point these two games need to just end, then lose in the first round of the b10 tourney, and start planning for next year.  It's clear the players just want this season to end, and I can't blame them because it's been miserable these last couple of weeks.  But I'm not on the fire Tubby bandwagon, even if I've been critical of his game coaching abilities.  I remain critical of those, but he deserves one more year, but it's a make or break year.  If there's another season that goes similarly to this one, it's time to move on.  The important thing is to build a program, and if he misses another NCAA Tournament, well, there's no building going on.  One more year, Tubby.  Show us why we were all excited when the hiring was initially announced.  This is just sad.

I mean, look at Notre Dame this year.  Both the Gophers and Notre Dame received exactly one 25th place vote in a poll to start the season (Gophers in the AP, Notre Dame in the coaches).  Both teams lost their best player for the year, a senior power forward, early in the season (like Mbakwe for the Gophers, Tim Abromaitis led the team in both scoring and rebounding when he went down).  Neither team had any kind of real impact freshman coming in, so post-injury both schools looked to be in trouble.  But, where the Gophers have struggled and floundered and canceled out any flashes of brilliance with some terrible outings, Notre Dame has played together, executed well consistently, and completely bought in to Mike Brey's system and is 20-10 overall, 12-5 in the Big East, and a lock for the tournament.  Look at these two teams.  It's hard to say Notre Dame is significantly more talented, if at all, than the Gophers, and yet look at the results.  Unsettling, at best.

We move on....


WHO WAS AWESOME

1.  Iowa State Cyclones.  Well, for those of you out there who were complete idiots and were saying Fred Hoiberg was some kind of moron for collected talented yet troubled transfers (and you know who you are) how about you pour some Bacardi 151 in your butthole and chase it with a match?  Because Iowa State just won at Kansas State - the same K-State who just beat both Baylor and Missouri on the road - to move to 11-5 in Big 12 play and 21-8 overall.  They're now tied for 4th with Baylor in the Conference and have now 100% locked up an NCAA bid.  While the Gophers need a miracle.  I'm moving to Ames.  Plus they got craps there.

2.  Purdue Boilermakers.  While every other Big 10 team who was chasing a bid goes down faster than your mom on prom night, Purdue is taking a stand and doing what needs to be done like full grown men.  I'm just kidding about that sentence by the way, it's intentionally douchey (except for the mom joke, that's all me).  Anyway, while everyone else is pooping on their heads, Purdue went into Ann Arbor and beat Michigan, a team that was undefeated at home this year, was ranked #11 in the polls, #10 in the RPI, and #21 in kenpom's ratings.  That, my friends, is the definition of a signature win and puts Purdue firmly into tournament lock status.  And you know how they won?  Because Terone Johnson shot 9-12 for 22 points and carried the offense.  You know the last time an unsung-y Gopher like Johnson stepped up to carry the team to a victory?  Caddyshack.  Cue rimshot.

3.  Kansas Jayhawks.  I kind of feel like I've been underrating the Jayhawks all year, mainly because they're a two-man show and also because I hate them and have hated them since that little wiener Jeff Boschee was running around being wienery.  But they're about to win the Big 12 for the 9th straight year* after beating Missouri, and that win was a freaking ballsy ass win because they were down 19 and came back against an incredibly good team.  And Thomas Robinson?  Holy hell is this guy good.  He's nearly flawless in the low post, and because Missouri only has one low-post kind of defender in Ricardo Ratliffe (who, by the way, is completely awesome in his own way) they chose to single cover Robinson all game and he put on a clinic.  Now, this is hyperbole of the biggest fashion so don't jump down my throat, but watching him I actually was reminded of Hakeem Olajuwon.  I know, I know, but I was.  I can't help it.  Guy's legit.

4.  Miami Hurricanes. I've said it before and I'll say it again, I'm always impressed with teams on the Bubble who go out and get that big home win that they need (mainly because I don't know if I've ever seen it from my favorite team), and Miami did just that this weekend, taking down the #16 Seminoles 78-62 to jump up and likely grab themselves and NCAA bid.  Most impressive is that they did it without starting center and double-double guy Reggie Johnson, who was ruled ineligible by the NCAA due to some minor infractions that will hopefully be resolved quickly.  Not to mention that even without him they managed to put up 78 points on the usually defensively studly Seminoles, the first time a team has scored that much on them since January 7th.  Pretty sure Miami sucks and won't win a game in the tourney, but at least they're most likely going to make it.

5.  South Florida Bulls.  Speaking of college teams from the state of Florida who picked up huge wins with bubble ramifications over the weekend, USF knocked off fellow bubble team Cincinnati on Sunday and can pretty officially no longer be ignored.  The game wasn't pretty with the Bulls winning 46-45, both teams having just one player score in double figures, and the two teams combined to shoot 6-30 from 3-point land, but USF did what they needed to do and got a big victory.  South Florida is now 11-5 in the Big East, has bumped their RPI up to 45 (right behind K-State), and now has a 4-1 record against teams between 40-100 in the RPI.  Of course, they are also 0-7 vs. the RPI top 40 and have three losses against sub-100 teams, but closing out the season at 11-4 is pretty solid.  You'd have to think if they can finish out 1-1 (@Louisville, vs. WVU) and then win their Big East Tourny opener they'd be in - a far cry from the team that started the year 7-7 and lost to Penn State (among other craptastic squads).


WHO SUCKED


1.  Seton Hall Pirates.  Are you shitting me Seton Hall?  So they beat Georgetown for one of the most meaningful bubble wins this year and it's all like oh hell yes sweet what a great win awesome to see a team actually step up when they have to.  And how do they follow it up?  By losing at home to freaking Rutgers.  Rutgers of the four conference wins and #149 RPI.  Seriously, I mean if this doesn't completely wipe out all the good they did by beating the Hoyas it's damn close.  I swear to god this is exactly what I expect from the Gophers or Northwestern, not a real team from the Big East.  Shaheen Holloway is probably rolling over in his sports grave.

2.  West Virginia Mountaineers.  Even though there are plenty of teams doing everything they can to avoid getting invited to the NCAA Tournament, I don't know if anybody is doing a better job of tanking than West Virginia.  On January 21 they were 15-5 and 5-2 in the Big East after beating Cincinnati.  Since then they've gone 2-7 (with one of the wins taking overtime to beat Providence).  This week may have been the worst, first going to Notre Dame and getting beat by 30, then taking on a Marquette squad that suspended three starters for the first half, building an 11-point half-time lead, and then blowing it and losing by one.  A team that looked like an easy lock for the NCAA Tournament a month ago is now completely floundering, and with just games vs. DePaul and @ South Florida left a 2-0 finish is now an absolute must, and they might need a win or two in the Big East Tournament to get in.  Seriously, if Huggins is going to find a way to cheat he might as well get started pretty quick.

3.  Florida Gators.   Jeez this seems like a very Florida-y week in review, which I guess is kind of appropriate since I'm going to Florida for a family vacation starting next Tuesday and that's kind of on my mind, but it's been a very Florda-centric week for being awesome and sucking so here we are.  Anyway, the Gators continue to show how vulnerable they are because of their reliance on the perimeter jumper, and Georgia took advantage taking them down 76-62 with the Gators shooting just 5-23 from three.  39% of Florida's points come from three-pointers, the 3rd most in the country, and 44.6% of their shot attempts come from behind the arc (6th in the nation).  Even though they do shoot them well (39.4%, 16th in the country) relying on something that can disappear in any given game, combined with a pretty bad defense (94th in Defensive efficiency) is a recipe for any early March exit. 

4.   Ohio State Buckeyes.  Obviously there are varying degrees of sucking because I would kill your mother if it meant the Gophers would even approach Ohio State's success, but for a team that was/is supposed to be a national title contender there are some major concerns right now, with Ohio State 2-3 in their last five games including two home losses (to Michigan State and Wisconsin, but still).  The Buckeyes were supposed to cruise to a Big 10 title and even with Michigan State having a tremendous year they should still be the class of the conference, but all of a sudden they're showing a whole bunch of chinks in their armor (wait, are we allowed to say that?)  Buford has just been plain off most of the year, Craft hasn't turned into anything on the offensive end, and suddenly Sullinger is disappearing in games (17 total points in the last two, plus 1-7 from the free throw line when he's a 74% shooter this season).  Still plenty of talent here and they're probably still one of the 10 best teams in the country, but suddenly an early round loss in the tournament doesn't seem like the impossibility it once did.


5.  Cal Golden Bears.  I don't know why I obsess about the Pac-10's mediocrity so much, but it's just mind boggling that a conference with schools like UCLA, USC, Washington, Cal, etc. can be so bad at basketball for so long.  Every year there's a point where it looks like the Pac-12 might only get one bid, and although I don't think it's actually happened yet it's amazing how close it gets every year.  And once again this season just when it looks like both Cal and Washington are safe, Cal goes out and gets destroyed by Colorado 70-57.  Both Washington and Cal will probably still get in and everything, but jeez man, it's just amazing how much they suck.  Also, in a semi-related note, with all the conference realignment going on I think what makes the most sense is for the Gophers to move into the Pac-12.  It's common sense, really.


With conference tournaments starting up this week I need to get to work on the small conference tournament previews, so you'll have to do without your pithy outro this week.  You know, the outro nobody reads because they've usually bailed on my post halfway through or so because it's too long and/or boring?  Yeah, that.

* = I made this up because I was too drunk tired to actually look it up

NCAA Basketball Preview - Big East

Ok, conference realignment has officially become out-of-control.  The Big East already has 16 teams, but now because they're losing Syracuse (sad) and Pitt (who cares) and have now seen TCU pull out of joining to become a Big 12 team instead they overreact in the opposite direction and add Houston, Southern Methodist, Central Florida, Air Force, and Boise State.  Except Air Force and Boise State will only be joining for football.  This move does absolutely nothing for basketball except to further weaken a Big East already weakened by the defections, unless you think the recent strong recruiting seen by Houston is sustainable - and I don't.

At first I thought all this conference realignment stuff was kind of cool, but at this point it's just gotten completely out of hand.  I don't even know who went where or who didn't or what's merging.  Like that Conference USA/Mountain West merger - does that effect hoops in any way?  I don't know.  It's too confusing.  I think it's time to just to to one big conference.  Easier that way.

1.  UCONN HUSKIES.  How are they #1 in a tough conference despite losing Kemba Walker?  Because everybody else is back, including Jeremy Lamb (who started to look like a star at the end of last year) and Alex Oriakhi (who is always solid defensively and now his offense is coming along), as well as a group of sophomores (of which Lamb is a part) who were ranked as the #20 recruiting class in the country last season by ESPN.  Oh, and they have one of the best classes in the country coming in with PG Ryan Boatright (#42 rivals), SF DeAndre Daniels (#10), and C Andre Drummond (#2).  Drummond is ridiculous and he's probably going to make people cry, and will likely be the #1 overall pick in next year's NBA Draft if it happens.  Seriously, UCONN is a big-time threat to win back-to-back titles.  Doubtful, yes, but a better chance than most.

2. SYRACUSE ORANGE.  God Boeheim is just incredible - great class after great class after great class.  He's followed up last year's top five class with a top 10 class this year, adding SG Michael Carter-Williams (Rivals #29 overall) and C Rakeem Christmas (#27) to last year's group that included C Fab Melo (#16), SF C.J. Fair (#94), and SG Dion Waiters (#29).  Scoop Jardine and Brandon Triche will be back on the perimeter to run things and awkwardly heave the ball at the rim, and scoring machine Kris Joseph is back for more.  The only real question is if Christmas (freshman) or Melo (super-subpar first year) can fill in for Rick "Automatic Double-Double" Jackson.  If they can, this is a national title contender.  If not, they'll be lucky to make it out of the first weekend of the NCAA Tournament.

3.  LOUISVILLE CARDINALS.  I have a feeling about this Louisville team, and it's not necessarily a good one.  I do think they'll be good and a legit Final Four contender, but I also think they're very ripe for some ugly nights.  It will basically all come down to Peyton Siva and how well he can control the offense, because with Preston Knowles gone he's now in charge of a whole bunch of talent, but a whole bunch of talent that's a little bit crazy.  The Cards have everything you'd need - excellent point guard, dead-eye shooting, perimeter and interior defense, and three incoming swingmen who all rank on in Rivals Top 70 (and a center as well), so really it's going to come down to how well they mesh - and that is going to depend on Siva.

4.  PITT PANTHERS.  I think at some point Pitt turned itself into kind of a minor dynasty (conference only).  They somehow shed the legacy of crappy overrated point guards like Brandin Knight, Carl Krauer, and LeVance Fields and are now actually acquiring good, quality players like Ashton Gibbs who is probably the best player in the conference.  They do lose quite a bit with three starters (including the giant version of kid from Kid N Play which makes me sad), and Gibbs biggest help now is a guy who is already hurt and missing most/all the preseason practice time, a point guard who makes LeVance Fields look like Craig Hodges, and a former big time recruit whose failed to average more than 5 points per game in his two seasons at Pitt.  But you watch, Gibbs will find a way, and Pitt will break into the top 10 at some point this year.  Big fan of this kid.

5.  VILLANOVA WILDCATS.  Villanova is turning into Chucker University, and this year is shaping up to be no exception as Maalik Wayns looks to become the next in the recent line of all-time great chuckers following Scottie Reynolds, the two Coreys, Allen Ray, and Randy Foye.  The real great news is that Wayns looks like he has a chance to be the greatest of them all.  His shooting percentage of 40% last year and 3-point percentage of just 27% were some of the worst numbers any of these chuckers put up at any point in their careers, but that didn't stop Wayns from taking the third most shots (and 3-pointers) on the team behind the two Coreys.  Really, the stars could be aligning for a spectacular two final years of his career.  I'm so excited.

6.  CINCINNATI BEARCATS.  Why do I have some trouble believing in Cincy?  It could be because there best player is named Yancy, but really there's a lot to like about the Bearcats this year.  Besides the aforementioned Yancy Gates, their leading scorer and rebounder last year, they also return essentially every player from last year's team that knocked off a very good Missouri team in the NCAA Tournament last year, and also add Shaquille Thomas and Jermaine Sanders, two athletic wings who will fit well in Mick Cronin's hyper-defensive system.  The biggest issue here will be Cashmere Wright, who is back to play the point for a third year.  Except he can't shoot, turns the ball over too much, and isn't a great distributor.  So I guess they got that goin' for 'em.

7.  MARQUETTE EAGLES.  Jimmy Butler was a do-everything type player and he's gone, but luckily for Marquette Darius Johnson-Odom is back and he's a do-everything type as well who was pretty much just as good as Butler last year and has a chance to be an absolute super star this year without having to share touches with Butler.  Jae Crowder lived up to his billing as one of the better JuCo players last season, looking unstoppable on the block at times despite a shaky shooting percentage and could be a big-time player this year.  The biggest key for Marquette will be the backcourt with Vander Blue coming off a disappointing freshman year where he had more turnovers than assists and shot at a worse percentage than Maalik Wayns.  Junior Cadougan is serviceable but not a star, so they really need Blue to live up to his pre-college hype.

8.  WEST VIRGINIA MOUNTAINEERS.  Joel Mazzulla, captain bricklayer himself, is gone along with their best scorer in Casey Mitchell and their best defender, or at least one of, in John Flowers.  Even so, Huggy Bear will have these guys in contention for an NCAA bid because they're always going to play tough defense and Kevin Jones is back and ripe for a Big East player of the year type season.  The biggest key will be Truck Bryant, who will have to pretty much main the point alone with Maz gone.  Assuming he can avoid running into cars this season, WVU should be ok.

9.  NOTRE DAME FIGHTING IRISH.  Obviously most of these previews are me combining my limited knowledge on these teams with what I can read, both online and in print, and trying to come up with some decent conclusions.  So basically a lot of guessing.  One thing I'm not guessing about, however, and I'll make it a guarantee, is that you're going to be sick of hearing about Tim Abromaitis by the end of this season.  Seriously, between him and Scott Martin the Irish are going to once again be the great white hope, except now the third wheel in little Hansbrough is gone and I have this crazy feeling Abromaitis is going to have a Harangody like season, only less behemoth-y.  Put on your gritty, hustly, heady, smart player shoes because it's going to be a rough year if you watch any of there games.  And god help you if they actually end up good.  God.  Help.  You.

10.  GEORGETOWN HOYAS.  For the last several years the Hoyas have been a big-time March threat - at least on paper - and it's been on the strength of their guard play.  Unfortunately for them, they're in the habit of getting bounced to early and two of their three stud guards are now gone.  The one remaining, Jason Clark, was more of the third wheel type, and will now have to become the #1 option, and basically the difference for the Hoyas between a good or bad season, because between him and Hollis Thompson - who is the only offensive big man of consequence who is returning, they're going to have to be most of the offense for this team.  There are three highly regarded freshmen big men coming in, but other than throwing a right hook at some chinaman who knows if they'll be worth a damn. 

11.  RUTGERS SCARLET KNIGHTS.  Ever since Quincy Douby left Rutgers hasn't been able to build any momentum.  Even when they snag a great recruiting class with two Top 50 players like they did in 2008 things fall apart and both players ended up transferring before the end of their careers.  That being said, a new coach and another excellent class (ranked #24 nationally and 6th in the conference by Rivals) has hope welling up once again in Jersey.  If they ever get good the RAC gives them a nice home court advantage, so remember that when you're gambling.

12.  SOUTH FLORIDA BULLS.  You remember Anthony Crater?  The point guard who came aboard at Ohio State in the same class that netted the Buckeyes B.J. Mullens and William Buford, then quit 2 months into the season after shooting 3-15 from the floor in 10 games because he didn't get to start (keep in mind OSU's guards were Evan Turner, Buford, David Lighty, Jon Diebler, and Jeremie Simmons)?  He's played at USF the last two seasons and averaged less than 4 points per game both years despite playing over 25 minutes per game, and was kicked off the team in May for "violating team rules."  I don't know why, but that story makes me laugh.  Probably because he seemed like such a douche.

13.  SETON HALL PIRATES.  I don't know why I'm so drawn to Seton Hall.  Maybe it's because I fell in love with Shaheen Holloway, or maybe it's because a dude I played against (and got crushed by) in high school ended up going there (Darius Lane), but I also half-root for the Pirates and actually have a Seton Hall hat somewhere.  Unfortunately this year is going to be a rough one for the Pirates with Jeremy Hazell, the Big East's third leading scorer last year, and Jeff Robinson, the team's second leading scorer, both gone along with a whole bunch of supporting bits.  Herb Pope is still a freaking stud with bullets in his body and Jordan Theodore can score, but there just isn't much here unless Pope goes insane.  More than usual, I mean.

14.  ST. JOHNS RED STORM.   They would be higher, seeing as how Lavin came in and immediately grabbed a top 3 class to come play in NYC, but then things unraveled and three of the newcomers were ruled ineligible, and they just happened to be the #23, #51, and #68 recruits in the country.  There's still good talent coming in, but St. John's is trying to replace essentially everybody from last year and losing those three hurts, especially because the #51 guy - Jakarr Sampson - has already transferred out (maybe the other's have too but I'm not looking it up because I've already spent too much time on this one).  Lavin will turn things around in a hurry, maybe just in slightly less of a hurry than it looked.  I wonder if he's gone crooked yet or if he's waiting another year.

15.  PROVIDENCE FRIARS.  Marshon Brooks was really, really good at scoring.  He was also the rare player who was kind of a chucker, but was an efficient chucker.  I'm not really sure why I'm talking about him because he's now in the NBA if there was an NBA, but it's probably because I don't know anything else about Providence.  They do have two other double-digit scorers back from last year.  Shrug.

16.  DEPAUL BLUE DEMONS.  Talk about horrible.  I read somewhere that DePaul has gone 2-52 in Big East play over the last three seasons.  I knew they were bad, but assumed that was a misprint and looked it up myself.  Sure enough, they're 2-52.  And it's not fixing to change.  Despite being in the heart of Chicago, a nice high school hoops town, they can't get anybody to attend DePaul because of Dumpster Arena.  I just don't know how they're going to get out of this mess.  I guess they have a little momentum, what with Cleveland Melvin winning Big East Rookie of the Year last year and stealing DeJuan Marrero away from the Gophers recently, but yuck.  You'd think one of Illinois, Northwestern, DePaul, or UIC would have to be good, but here we are.

College Basketball Preview: The Big East

 1.  Villanova Wildcats.  I'm very glad Scottie Reynolds, one of my top five most hated college players of all-time, is gone, because I can go back to not hating Villanova right as they look to finally be balanced enough to be a real national title contender - and I mean a real threat, not a media-driven threat that was obviously going to flame out early - thanks again to Reynolds.  Perimeter driven for years, this year Jay Wright and the Wildcats will have a balanced attack. Antonio Pena has made a huge leap from where he was as a freshman to become an excellent inside scoring threat and two sophomores (Mouphtaou Yarou and Isaiah Armwood) were highly regarding coming in last year and had very nice freshman years - and of course Nova is loaded with guards as they always are.  So I guess is what I'm saying is we actually have to worry about Villanova and I don't like it one bit. 

2.  Syracuse Orange.  The Orange lose a lot - again, but Jim Boeheim just reloads - again.  Losing Andy Rautins, Arinze Onuaku, and Wes Johnson would cripple most teams and send them into rebuilding mode, but not the Cuse.  Fab Melo (#2 center) is a better Onuaku, and SF C.J. Fair (#94 overall) and SG Dion Waiters (#29 overall) may not be the equal of Johnson and Rautins, but they'll ease their loss.  Biggest keys to Orange success will be how Kris Joseph develops, and he is looking like he could end up being the next Syracuse star, and finding a shooter to replace Rautins and Johnson, who made 61% of the team's three balls between them at a combined 41% clip.  This is where Mookie Jones (45% last year) can fit in.  Plus, you (and everyone) need a little more Mookie in your life.  You know it's true.

3.  Pittsburgh Panthers.  I've never seen a Pitt team I liked, and I'm not going to start now, but it's impossible to deny that they look pretty loaded this year.  The real question is if Ashton Gibbs is a bonifide star or just another in a long line of Pitt point guards who got a disproportionate amount of praise for their skill  level and couldn't shoot.  Look it up, but from Brandin Knight to Carl Krauser to Levance Fields, Pitt always has point guards who couldn't hit a jump shot if they were in an empty gym, but were universally loved and praised by the media.  I'm afraid Gibbs, who shot under 40% from the field last year, is yet another one and is going to cause my anti-Pitt rage to fire itself back up again, despite all the anti-rage medication I'm on.

4.  Georgetown Hoyas.  Georgetown is going to look a little weird this year because they're going to be missing the most Georgetowny thing - a good, big center.  From Ewing, Mourning, and Mutumbo to Hibbert and Monroe, they always seem to have a good center (not counting all those years between Mutumbo and Hibbert), but not this year.  What they do have, however, is a trio of very good guards in Chris Wright (scored 20 in 3 of team's last 4 games), Austin Freeman (leading scorer last year at 16.5 per game), and Jason Clark (42% three-point shooter).  It seems like the Hoyas have disappointed every year since their Final Four year, so maybe this is another breakthrough coming since they say guard play is the key in March.  And, in case you're really concerned, they did sign 6-10 Moses Abraham, the #11 center in the country for 2010, and he could eventually develop into a top flight center in a year or two.  Long live tradition.

5.  West Virginia Mountaineers.  Devin Ebanks and Da'Sean Butler are massive losses, particularly Butler who wasn't only their best player but also a stone cold end of game killer, but there's still enough here to make the Mountaineers an NCAA Tournament team.  Kevin Jones was basically Butler's understudy all year and is a very similar player who I expect to take a big leap forward and help lead this team, and they get both of their point guards back in Joel Mazzulla (who can't shoot) and Truck Bryant (who seems to alternate between being injured and being in trouble).  There are a lot of questions on the interior and a lot of pressure will be on John Flowers and Deniz Kilicli (and Kevin Noreen, who is from Minneapolis and the Gophers had zero interest in so that will be interesting to see how that works out).  Also Noah Cottrill (freshman PG) looks just like the Professor and as such I love him.


6.  St. Johns Red Storm.  Might be a little high, but optimism reigns in NYC for a once proud program who has fallen into irrelevance, and I'm buying into it.  New coach Steve Lavin finally left the booth for this job, and he's hit the ground running already landing a couple of big time recruits for 2011.  But don't think the only optimism is for the future, this year's squad returns nearly everybody from last year's NIT team, and they have a good mix of inside and outside scoring.  I'm not saying we're heading back to the glory days of Felipe Lopez and Zendon Hamilton or anything, but don't be surprised if they surprise some people (but not you because I just told you they'd be good.)

7.  Connecticut Huskies.  I've got a weird feeling about UCONN, and I am starting to think their run as a top flight college hoops program might be coming to a close.  Now, they're still good now and should make the NCAA Tournament this year (although they should have been one of the best team's in the country last year and that didn't exactly work out) and they continue to get good recruiting classes, but there's a lot going on here.  Calhoun's health issues, the new NCAA infractions (that have led to two assistant coaches getting canend), Ater Majok leaving...I don't know, it just feels like bad news coming, whether the NCAA hammers the program or not.  In any case, they'll be good this year and Kemba Walker is a stud.  At least until he gets arrested.

8.  Notre Dame Fighting Irish.  Better without Harangody?  Yep, and if you recall, they made their late run at an NCAA bid when he was on the shelf last year, winning their last four regular season games, including wins over 2 ranked teams and 2 bubble teams, then winning two in the Big East tournament to grab an NCAA berth.  This year white guy central and top two players Ben Hansbrough and Tim Abromaitis will add a third top white guy in Purdue transfer Scott Martin.  You may remember him as the fourth member of Purdue's E'Twaun Moore/JaJuan Johnson/Robbie Hummel class who was actually ranked similarly to Hummel by Rivals.  He had a solid freshman year, then transferred (and had to sit out), and then blew out his knee before last season began, so this will actually be his first action since 2007 (much like my good friend Theory).  The biggest question, however, is can they find a point guard to get all these white shooters the ball?

9.  Marquette Eagles.  Marquette was supposed to be down last year after losing their kick-ass guard trio, but Lazar Hayward (T-Wolves, what up?) was a beast and Jimmy Butler made huge leaps and helped carry the Golden Eagles to the NCAA Tournament where they just barely dropped their first round game to Washington.  Hayward is gone, as are starting guards David Cubillon and Maurice Acker, but Butler returns along with third leading scorer Darius Johnson-Odom.  If they get can good point play from either sophomore Junior Cadougan or freshman Vander Blue they might surprise some people.  As long as they beat Wisconsin (they play every year, don't they?) I'll be happy.  Go to hell, Badgers, go to hell.

10.  Seton Hall Pirates.  This might actually be a bit low for the Pirates, as I think they have real sleeper potential - in the conference, not necessarily nationally - but they also have a high chance of implosion as well.  Herb Pope is as talented as anyone but is essentially a walking injury risk, Jeremy Hazell is a scoring machine but is also a tremendous chucker, Keon Lawrence was very good for Missouri but had a terrible year last season in his first as a Pirate, and Jeff Robinson - well, I have nothing really to say there.  But the moral of the story is the Pirates have their top four players back, but with a new coach and some volatile personalities this story can go either way.  I'm rooting for things to go well, I do own a Seton Hall hat after all, but it will be interesting.  Last year, coach Bobby Gonzalez played a wide-open, uptempo style, but new coach Kevin Willard's Iona was a slow-down, deliberate team.  Interesting to see how that all ends up shaking out.

11.  Louisville Cardinals.  Another down year is in the cards for the cards before things start to turn around with a great class Pitino is bringing in for 2011.  Louisville loses its top three scorers from last season in Samardo Samuels, Edgar Sosa, and Jerry Smith, along with fellow starter , leaving the team with a whole lot of role players and no star power.  I don't know, I guess Terrence Jennings was supposed to be the next Earl Clark/Terrence Williams/Francisco Garcia, but man Pitino already has a very good 2011 class coming in, even after missing on a couple of key targets, so this is going to be a transition year and probably not very fun.  Except maybe for Rick, assuming he finds another team employee's wife to hump around with.

12.  South Florida Bulls.  Dominique Jones was completely awesome, and losing him is a big blow, but there's still some talent here in Tampa.  Gus Gilchrist and Jarrid Famous are both over 6-10, and both are excellent interior scorers and good rebounders.  That kind of size and talent is going to give some teams fits.  Former Ohio State problem child Anthony Crater is still getting in trouble now that he's a Bull, and didn't exactly light it up when he did play, but he was once a pretty highly regarded point guard coming out of high school with a lot of good offers from a lot of good programs.  You know what they always say, if you give a headcase enough chances, he will always come through for you in the end and never, ever end up a huge disappointment. 

13.  Cincinnati Bearcats.  This was my sleeper team last year, but their inability to close in tight games killed them and they ended up in the NIT (where they lost to freaking Dayton) instead of in the Final Four.  With Lance Stephenson and Deonta Vaughn now gone, there are major holes to fill and with the incoming class very meh it's going to be up to the returnees if Cincy is going to be something other than a cellar dweller.  I watched a lot of Cincy ball last year, since I had a crush on them, and center Yancy Gates is the only one who was remotely impressive last year.  Other than that they are a bunch of solid players but no real stars, and "point guard" Cashmere Wright was awful.  Remember Kerwin Fleming?  Throw out that improbable run he had in the NIT after Monson let him play streetball and you have Wright, except he's expected to start and lead the team.  Yeah. 

14.  Providence Friars.  In reading up on the Big East, I discovered that this team was really, really bad defensively last year.  In fact, they ranked 237th in Ken Pomeroy's defensive efficiency ratings, which put them at dead last amongst all BCS conference teams.  They accomplished this by allowing opponents to shoot 52.2% on 2-pointers (327th), only turning their opponents over 18% of the time (290th), and allowing an offensive rebound on 36.6% of their opponents misses (309th).  So, to recap, the Friars almost always allowed their opponent to get a shot off, and it almost always went in, and when it didn't go in, they usually allowed them to have a second chance at it.  That is not good.  On the bright side, their offense was actually quite efficient.  This will all probably happen again. 

15.  Rutgers Scarlet Knights.  The big signing of Mike Rosario a few couple years ago didn't exactly turn the Scarlet Knights around, and now he's transferred out to Florida and the team's second best player, Greg Echenique has left as well to go play at Creighton.  New coach Mike Rice has already made some big moves on the recruiting trail and things are looking up, but this year will be tough with nobody over 6-8 on the roster.  Talented sophomore Dane Miller is back, but Rutgers will struggle to win more than a couple of games in conference play this year, the talent level just isn't there, despite an awesome home arena.  Quincy Douby is rolling over in his grave. 


16.  DePaul Blue Demons.  The team with the worst arena in college ball will once again be the worst major college team in the land, except I think this makes three years in a row.  Things might be looking up a bit with a new coach in Oliver Purnell, who has built programs up before (Dayton/Clemson), but this year is going to be another rough one.  Last year the team was built around two players (Mac Koshwal and Will Walker) who scored over half the team's points on a per game basis, and now both are gone.  With not much here and a less than imposing incoming class, it's going to be a rough year.  These guys are like the football Minnesota Gophers of college basketball.


Other Previews:
Pac-10
ACC
Big 12

Week in Review - 2/22/2010

Well, I gotta give credit where credit is due:  there is very little to complain about in regards to the Gopher hoopsters this week.  A big win over the completely hated dickholes from Wisconsin followed by an absolute destruction of the horribly horrid Hoosiers.  And they've looked great too.  The offense is finally flowing well, and even Westbrook has reigned himself in and begun playing within the flow.  The two best games this team has played all year were the two they played this week.  If they're going to hit a stride now is the time to do it.  Big time games coming up at home against Purdue and then on the road at Illinois this week, and they absolutely have to win at least one and probably both to have a shot at a bid.  Of course, if they had played this way they wouldn't have lost to Indiana, Northwestern, or Michigan and would likely have won at least one of the Michigan State games and we wouldn't have to worry about it.

This is such a depressing year.  Let's just move on.
  

WHO WAS AWESOME

1.  Maryland.  At this point in the season you're rarely going to see a team with three games in a week, but due to a postponement after the great blizzard of "aught-ten" that's what the Terps had this week and they managed a very nice 3-0.  First they beat a tougher-than-expected Virginia squad, then traveled down to NC State and beat the Wolfpack (the same team who beat Wake by 20 this weekend), and then rapped up the week with a buzzer beating home win over Georgia Tech.  The Terps are flying under the radar a bit due to a slow start, but since Professor Dirty Beard, Grievis Vasquez, has shaken off an early shooting slump they are one of the better teams in the country.  Vasquez and Eric Hayes give them a very good, very experienced backcourt, and you know what they say about good guards in March.  The front court might be a little weak, but freshman Jordan Williams is starting to figure it out and has picked up double-digits rebounds in his last three.  Very dangerous team.  I'd hate for the Gophers to have to face them in the second round.

hahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha

Kill me.

2.  Northern Iowa.   The Panthers are definitely the team that helped themselves the most over Bracket Buster weekend, going from "probably getting an at-large bid" to "definitely getting an at-large bid" with their win over Old Dominion.  UNI is now 24-3, but didn't have much in the marquee win category.  The beat Siena earlier in the year, but that had been their only win over an RPI top 50 team.  Mediocre wins abounded:  Iowa, Boston College, Iowa State, Creighton, and Wichita State all fell to the Panthers, but the Siena win was the only big victory, and with two losses to sub-100 RPI teams (Bradley, DePaul) they couldn't really feel safe.  Beating ODU now gives them that second big win, and increases their RPI rating to #17, and barring a complete collapse in the final regular season week they should be just fine, regardless of the outcome of the MVC tournament. 

3.  UTEP.  If you're a dork like me and were really curious to see how Conference USA would shake out with Calipari jumping ship, you have your answer:  UTEP is the tops.  Coming into the season there were a bunch of contenders with Tulsa and Memphis the favorites, UAB and UTEP right behind them, and Marshall and Houston the dark horses.  Well, the Miners have staked their claim to #1 after beating Tulsa in Tulsa this weekend, giving them a sweep of the Golden Hurricane.  With Houston sucking and Marshall being meh it's been a four team race, and UTEP has staked their claim to the top by going 4-0 against the other contenders, and even more impressively three of those wins have been on the road.  The Miners still have games left against UAB and Marshall, and have plenty of work to do thanks to a mostly empty non-conference resume, but if they make the tournament they could be a tough out.  They are really balanced and can hurt you both inside and out, and will make somebody work very hard to advance.

4.  Cornell.  When Andy Bernard U lost to Penn two weeks ago it basically killed their at-large chances which would suck because this team can absolutely knock somebody off.  The loss to Penn and their #307 RPI is Cornell's only conference loss, but with a dangerous team like Harvard in the conference, and the Ivy giving their auto-bid to the regular season champion, things can get dicey.  Luckily for everyone who likes basketball, Cornell took care of business this week, winning at Harvard 79-70 (and then following that up by beating Dartmouth).  The loss is the third of the season for Harvard, and with Cornell having swept the Crimson it effectively eliminates them from the race.  Cornell's remaining games are home against Penn (4-5) and Princeton (7-2) and then away against Brown (4-6) and Yale (4-6).  The only dangerous game is against Princeton who is just 1.5 games behind the Big Red, and lost to them by just three last time they met.  Hopefully Cornell can take care of business, because I can't wait to watch them knock off Wisconsin in round 1.

5.  Ian Poulter.  There is enough going on in college hoops right now where we could fill twice as many places with teams that had good weeks, but I can't just ignore the winner of the Accenture Match Play Challenge - which is Poulter this year.  Ian has always had the confidence to be a great player (I believe his quote was something like "There's me and Tiger, and then there's everyone else"), but his game hasn't quite kept up and he's been stuck at that Tier II level.  He's had plenty of success in Europe, with eight wins on the European Tour, but has yet to pick up his first PGA Victory, and he's played well in majors, including a runner-up finish at the British in 2008, but hasn't quite broken through.  Perhaps this win in the Accenture will get him there, as he beat a nice group of players - Justin Leonard, Adam Scott, Jeev Milka Singh, Thongchai Jaidee (who?), Sergio Garcia, and Paul Casey - and the last two wins over Garcia and Casey weren't close.  Guy is a hell of a golfer, hell of a talker, and hell of a dresser (on Sunday he looked like a walking Breast Cancer reminder in a full-pink outfit).  Could it be, dare I say it, the Year of the Poulter?


WHO SUCKED

1.  South Florida.  For all the talk of bracket-busting this weekend, the biggest burst might have been the bubble of the Bulls (how's that for alliteration?).  They weren't anywhere near in just yet, and were probably on the wrong side of the bubble, but would have every chance to play themselves into a bid with games left against Villanova and UCONN.  Winning either of those, while taking care of business against St. Johns, Providence, and DePaul, would leave USF at 10-8 in Big East play and in pretty decent shape.  But, as Gopher fans have seen time and time again, these types of teams are prone to disappointing their fans and the Bulls are no exception, losing at home to St. Johns 74-58 on Saturday and probably killing any at-large dreams.  USF allowed St. Johns to shoot 59% from the floor and were out 30-22.  Add in Dominique Jones shooting 6-18 and their twin towers Augustus Gilchrist and Jarrid Famous combined to shoot 2-10 and you aren't going to win that game very often.  The chances of South Florida coming to the Barn for a first round NIT match up are rising.  Get excited, Gopher fans.

2.  The Colonial Athletic Association.  Going into Bracket Busters weekend, the CAA had three teams fighting for at-large consideration:  Old Dominion, William & Mary, and Northeastern.  ODU would be taking on the top team in the Missouri Valley in Northern Iowa in Cedar Falls, W&M would travel to New York to take on Iona, #2 in the MAAC, and Northeastern would welcome Lousiana Tech, the WAC's number three team, to their place.  Overall record:  0-3.  Ouch.  ODU should be ok thanks to their wins over Georgetown and Charlotte and 13-3 conference record, but W&M and Northeastern are in trouble.  The Tribe is in better shape thanks to non-conference wins over Maryland, Richmond, and Wake Forest, but a couple of really bad losses also dot their record (Wilmington, James Madison) and it will be interesting to see how the committee treats them.  Northeastern is in the worst shape despite being tied for first in the conference standings thanks to five losses to RPI sub-100 teams, which is hard to overlook.  Personally, I think both ODU and W&M should get in, but all three teams had a nice opportunity to boost their profile, and all three whiffed.

3.  Siena.  It's kind of tough to tell a team that it sucks after they lose on the road to the 13th ranked team in the country, but the Saints needed to beat Butler if they were going to get an at-large bid and didn't despite having the Bulldogs on the ropes early in the second half.  The Saints had played Butler to a tie at the 16-minutes mark of the second, but Butler went on 16-5 run and never looked back, closing Siena out by the final score of 70-53 and effectively eliminated any chance of an at-large bid for the Saints.  Unfortunately, three major offensive cogs (Ronald Moore, Edwin Ubiles, and Alex Franklin) didn't bother showing up on Saturday, combining to shoot 4-27 (not a misprint) and a 7-7 turnover-assist mark.  Maybe the ten AM start was a bit too early for them on a Saturday.  Siena is still the class of the MAAC and should be able to win the conference tournament and grab a bid that way, but I'm sure it would have been nice for them to not have to.  Way to go, slackasses.

4.  Ole Miss.  This week was basically a clinic in how not to make the NCAA Tournament by the Rebels.  With home games against Florida and Vanderbilt they not only had a good chance to get to third place in the SEC, but they could have done it and grabbed a couple of marquee wins in the process - something their profile is sorely lacking right now.  Of course, they are in the "SUCK" portion of this post, so you can probably guess that they lost both games instead and petty much eliminated themselves from at-large consideration.  This is really too bad, because as much as I complain about the Dayton fans at that Dayton bar in Chicago their is really nothing better than being in a bar dedicated to a team and watching that team get bounced out of the tournament.  Since Dayton is looking less and less likely like a tournament team, we might have to look for someone else, and that bar in Chicago is also an Ole Miss bar (as well as Boston College and Notre Dame).  They might not have a single one of their "teams" make the dance, and then we won't have any fans to laugh at.  Except Iowa fans.  We can laugh at them no matter what.

5.  Cincinnati.  It's time to give up the dream of me cashing on that 200-1 bet, because the Bearcats aren't even going to make the NCAA Tournament, forget about winning it.  After a 0-2 week, they are now 6-8 in the Big East and 15-11 overall and are going to have to go on a huge run to close out the season if they want a chance to reach the big dance.  Two very disappointing losses this week against rival bubble teams (at South Florida and vs. Marquette) are going to make it tough, but Cincy still has every chance to make the tournament.  Their four final games include chances against #3 Villanova, #10 Georgetown, and #8 West Virginia, and I'd bet winning two of those (and their gimme against DePaul) would set Cincy up in pretty good shape for a bid.  Of course, two of those three games are on the road and Cincinnati sucks, so it's more likely they'll close out the year 1-3 and then dip out quickly in the Big East Tournament.  The good news is that they would probably be one of the favorites to win the NIT, so they got that going for them.  Also Lance Stephenson would be an idiot to go pro after this year, which basically guarantees that he will.
 


I'd like to mention one other thing that was awesome, and recommend the book Willie Mays:  The Life, the Legend by James Hirsch.  Let me tell you something, if there is anything you want to know about Mays, this book has it in its 600 pages.  It is very focused, and very detailed, and other than a tendency to drift into mini-essays on the racial issues of the 50s and 60s stays focused on the story of Mays.  I actually wouldn't have minded a little bit more on guys like Marichal and McCovey, but if you are looking for the story of Willie Mays I wouldn't go anywhere else.  Seriously, my appreciation of the guy has gone way up.  Despite all his numbers which I've seen again and again, I never realized how great this guy was.  Hirsch makes it clear that the players, fans, coaches, and media of the day all considered Willie the best player in the world - except of course for the bigots.

Very cool book.  Highly recommended.

Finally, I'm going to debut my own sort of bubble watch thing. It's not fancy, but neither is your mom:


BUBBLE GAMES OF NOTE:

West Virginia @ UCONN -The Huskies looked like they were cruising towards a bid after beating Texas, but hit some road bumps and found themselves on the wrong side of the bubble.  After a successful 2-0 week, including a win over Villanova, they are back in the conversation, and a home win over WVU would go a long way.

And that's it.  So that was pretty anticlimactic.  Ah well, I'm planning on doing a little something like that every day until selection sunday.  But I'm also pretty lazy, so we'll just have to see.

Week In Review: 2/1/2010

If you want a little Twins talk, make sure you check out my previous post about the top 100 MLB prospects according to ESPN, directly below this one.  It's a lot more entertaining and uplifting than this garbage.  Thank god the Gophers don't play again until Saturday.  Pretty sure I'm just going to ignore them this week.  Also the Reds signed Orlando Cabrera, so if you had your heart set on him playing third for the Twins you can go ahead and give up.  You're also an idiot.

WHO WAS AWESOME

1.  Charlotte.  If the 49ers want an at-large bid into the NCAA Tournament they'll have to be nearly perfect in their A-10 season, and by perfect I mean don't lose any games to inferior teams and steal a bunch from the top of the conference - this week could be their blueprint.  They got a shot at a top team coming to their place in Temple, and beat them 74-64, and then took to the road for a dangerous game at UMass but didn't fall into the trap, coming out a 72-58 winner.  Charlotte now sits a top the conference, tied with Temple and Xavier at 6-1, and is 16-5 overall with wins now against Temple and Louisville on their resume.  They now sit at #38 in the RPI, and things are looking good for their first bid since 2005.

2.  Baylor  The Bears have kind of been hovering under the radar, especially since they started 2-3 in Big 12 play, but it's time for them to make their run and it started on Saturday with a huge win over Texas in Austin.  That 3-3 record is a bit deceiving because they've played three ranked teams already, and any team with wins at South Carolina and over Xavier on a neutral court is a team to be reckoned with.  Throwout a bizarre loss at Colorado and this is a very impressive team.  They lost to Kansas by just six in Lawrence and lost by just two to Kansas State and their only other loss was by three to Alabama in Orlando.  Baylor now plays a string of unranked teams - 9 in a row, with only Missouri having a shot to be ranked at any point - before closing with Texas at home.  Yep, the Bears are set up great to be dancing in March, although now the DWG Jinx probably guarantees that things are about to come crashing down.

3.  Virginia.  If you pay any attention to the ACC you'd know that the Cavs haven't been relevant since the days of Harold Deane and Curtis "The Curt-Man" Staples, but suddenly things are getting awfully interesting in Charlottesville, culminating in a huge 75-60 win over UNC in Chapel Hill.  Yes, the Heels are probably having their worst year in, well, a very long time, but still the symbolism of winning in the Dean Dome has got to be huge for Virginia, not to mention they are suddenly 4-2 and just a half game behind Duke in the ACC.  If they hadn't let their game against Virginia Tech, a game they led by 10 with 3:44 left, slip through their fingers they'd be the talk of the nation at 5-1.  Their are too many bad losses, not enough signature wins, and an RPI over 100 right now, so we probably aren't looking at a tournament team or anything, but things are looking way, way, way up for UVA.  Super stud Sylvan Landesberg is just a sophomore, and forward Mike Scott is just a junior, and both should be back (slight chance Landesberg does something dumb and goes into the draft).  Add in a great recruiting class for next year and the fact that they have a guy named Mustapha Farrakhan, and it seems captain boring Tony Bennett has things moving in the right direction.  All I know is I'm scared of a guy named Farrakhan, and I really want another Curtis Staples in my life.  Fuck J.J. Redick.   

4.  Vanderbilt.  Sure, they lost by 13 at Kentucky on Saturday, but that doens't discount a great, great win earlier in the week when they went into Tennessee and beat the Vols 85-76.  That win brought the Commodores to 5-0 in the conference (now 5-1) and was their tenth straight win.  Really a very good win over a fellow SEC title contender, with guard Jermaine Beal leading the way with 25 and four other players in double figures.  Prior to the season I read some kind of preview that predicted Vandy as a sweet 16 team.  I didn't buy it, because I don't believe in non-Derrick Byars Vanderbilt teams, especially when they're read by a big dopey white center.  Maybe it's time to start believing.  I think Journey would probably want it that way. 

5.  South Florida.  The Bulls beat Seton Hall on Thursday, and, more impressively, Pitt on Sunday and this is special for a couple of reasons, outside of just being a pretty impressive couple of wins.  First, I've always had a soft spot in my heart for USF because Snacks and I went and saw a game of theirs when we were kids and on a family vacation in St. Pete, back in the days of B.B. Walden and Alton Jackson.  Second, the win over the Hall was the second in a row for the Bulls - the first time they have ever had consecutive wins since joining the Big East, and obviously the win over Pitt gives them three straight for the first time.  They aren't going to be anywhere near the NCAA tournament, but could be a pretty good NIT team.  Dominique Jones is a pretty incredible player who ranks in the top 3 in scoring, top 10 in assists, and top 25 in rebounding in the Big East and put up a line of 46-10-8 in their win over Providence last week and tossed up 37 in that win over Pitt.  You know what, forget about all that Gopher vs. Wichita State in the NIT talk, I'm now hoping to get South Florida in the Barn.

WHO SUCKED

1.  Gopher basketball.  Well that was pretty damn disgusting.  I mean seriously, have you ever seen anything so pathetic as that "effort" the Gophers put in on the defensive end?  73% for the first half and 63% overall - and the only reason it was as low as 63% is because the Buckeyes finally started missing shots as the game wound down after it was well in hand.  And it wasn't just that Ohio State was crazy hot or anything, but that they could do anything they wanted at any time.  Basically they could have just chose on any given possession - layup?  Alley-oop?  Wide open three?  Wide open jump shot?  It didn't matter, they were wide open anywhere and everywhere every single trip down the court.

I could try to write more, but what else is there to say, really?  They got their asses whooped on talent, execution, and effort.  No real point on digging any deeper than that.  I could overlook a lot since I consider OSU a Final Four team, but this was too much for me.  As Grandslam texted me, "this team will be lucky to be in invited to the NIT."  I'm not quite ready to go that far (I think they're a lock for the NIT), but this was sickening on a number of levels, and there is A LOT that needs to change between now and next Saturday or they're going to lose to Penn State.  This would actually be a great time to have a home game against like, SDSU on Wednesday, but they don't have anything except practice against each other.  That ought to do wonders for their confidence on offense at least, since nobody plays any god damn defense on this team anyway. 

2.  UCONN.  Just last week UCONN was looking like a major player after beating then #1 Texas, but this week was certainly a disaster.  First they lost on the road at Providence, who isn't remotely a tournament team, despite having led by ten in the first half.  They then followed that with a 2-point loss at home to Marquette on an incredible shot by Jimmy Butler with three seconds left - which followed Kemba Walker's airball from about 8 feet that would have given the Huskies the lead.  UCONN probably doesn't have to worry much about making the tournament (currently a 5-seed according to Lunardi), but they can't exactly relax either, especially since these were two games they were supposed to win.  At 3-5 in the Big East now, they have just four home games left (against six roadies) and suddenly a lot less margin for error.  They're at Louisville tonight, that would be a pretty good start.

3.  Duke.  You know, I'm starting to think this Duke team isn't all that good, and is really overrated as a top ten team.  They got absolutely smoked by Georgetown on Saturday, and the final score of 89-77 doesn't show remotely how thorough of an ass-whooping this was.  The Blue Devils were completely beaten in every phase of the game, had no answer for Greg Monroe, and just overall played flat and uninspired ball - or maybe they just aren't that good.  They're now 1-4 in road games this season, and have looked completely average in games against not just G-Town but NC State and Georgia Tech as well.  It's a pretty simple formula, really, the Blue Devils have just three guys:  Scheyer, Singler, and Nolan Smith.  Shut them down, as Georgetown did (36% shooting, 8 turnovers), and you can beat them - there's nobody else here at all.  No chance this team makes a run in March, look for a first or second round loss.

4.  Conference USA.  With Memphis down, and a number of teams "up", this was supposed to be the year of multiple bids for poor little CUSA.  Memphis, UTEP, UAB, Houston, Tulsa, and Marshall were all supposed to be in play for a March bid.  Well, things aren't looking good.  This weekend Memphis lost to Southern Methodist and now have an RPI of 79 which is only that high becaus ethey've played a tough schedule - but beaten nobody.  UAB, the best bet for an at-large, also lost to UTEP, and although their RPI is still at 27, they can't afford many more losses.  Marshall lost to both Memphis and Houston, giving them four straight losses and droppin them completely out of the at-large conversation.  Houston's been a complete failure, is just 11-9, and has an RPI of 141.  Even Tulsa, at 6-1, is nowhere near a sure thing despite doing nothing really wrong, but they haven't done anything great either and are borderline as you can get at an RPI of 58.  Forget about a whole bunch of bids, C-USA will have to happy if they get two at this point.  Memphis, UTEP, UAB, and Tulsa are still alive, and it's going to come down to ever takes care of the others.  If nobody separates themself, we're looking at a one-bid league once again, and it's probably just time to shut 'er down.

Actually, this might be a good time for the Gophers to leave the Big Ten so it can get back to just ten teams, and join C-USA.  At least they could compete.    

5.  Gopher basketball.  God dammit that was pathetic.  How do you just let The Werewolf get to the rim any time he wants?  How do you let Dallas Lauderdale get three dunks?  Why can't Devoe Joseph play defense?  Why does a great "little things" player like Damian Johnson make so many dumb mistakes on the little things?  Why can Ohio State find Diebler for wide open shots over and over again, but the Gophers couldn't find Hoffarber if they were playing against Gimli and a bunch of hobbits?  Is anybody else as frustrated as I am?  Wasn't this supposed to be a big year?  Wasn't a NCAA berth to be expected, and the minimum this year?  I swear I'm going to move to some other state and buy season tickets to the closest college and just shift my allegiances, nothing can be worse than this.  Seriously, I just don't know what to do.  This is a picture of me that Mrs. W snapped last night after the game:

 

Please help.

NCAA Basketball Preview: The Big East

There are sixteen freaking teams in this conference.  Sixteen!!  No wonder they got eight or nine teams or whatever in the tournament last year.  That's like the Big Ten getting five or six - no big whoop.  Even so, there are a whole lot of quality teams here - the dominance of last year won't be repeated, but there are plenty of good teams in the Big East again and a final four contender or two.

1.  West Virginia.  There's no doubt Bob Huggins is leaving his stamp on this team, and not just with stellar recruiting and good overall coaching, but with lax disciplinary actions as well.  The team's two point guards, Joe Mazzulla and Darryl Bryant, were both arrested this summer (Mazzulla on domestic battery charges - his second arrest following up last year's for assaulting a police officer, Bryant for two separate hit and run incidents, including "bumping" a pedestrian), but surprise, surprise, they are both back on Huggy Bear's squad.  I'm kidding here, of course, I don't give a crap what any player does off the court and I hvae no problem with schools bending whatever rules possible to win - and win the Mountaineers should do.  Da'Sean Butler is a monster, and Devin Ebanks is going to be an absolute superstar.  Since it's Huggy, they'll probably flame out in the second round of the tournament, but they should be gold in the regular season.

2.  Villanova.  Scottie Reynolds coming back instead of staying in the NBA draft is a bit of a double-edged sword, for both the Wildcats and for me.  For Nova, it gives them back their leading scorer, but also a bit of a wildcard who can go off in a bad way, chucking shots at every opportunity and sometimes shooting them right out of a game, and makes a crowded, yet talented, backcourt even more crowded.  For me, I'm sort of happy I get another season to root against him, but on the other hand it would have been kind of fun to watch him not get drafted and end up languishing in Norwegian Basketball League or something.  Oh well.  Villanova is going to be very good again this year, and once again will be very perimeter-based with all those guards back.  Plus they add two McDonald's All-Americans, both guards, in Maalik Wayns (#26 Rivals) and Dominic Cheek (#30).  Their big concern is up front.  Losing Dante Cunningham, Dwayne Anderson, and Shane Clark takes away nearly 50% of their rebounds from last year.  Luckily, they have two other stud recruits, #10 Mouphtaou Yarou and #62 Isaiah Armwood coming in and both bring size and rebounding. 

3.  UCONN.  Lots of talent leaves, but since Calhoun got this program all straightened out again after that brief dip into crappiness in 2007, you can bet their is plenty coming back and coming in as well.  Kemba Walker and Jerome Dyson might be the best backcourt in the conference.  Walker is quick as lightning and played very well down the stretch last year after Dyson got hurt.  Speaking of Dyson, I love his game.  Assuming he's all the way back from injury, I can see him making a run at First Team All Big East.  Stanley Robinson is back as well, and he's an incredible athlete who also came into his own the second half of last year.  If someone can step in and fill the up the paint with Thabeet and Adrien gone, either one of the seldom used veterans or freshman Alex Oriakhi, the #21 prospect according to Rivals, the Huskies could have an oustide shot at another Final Four appearance.

4.  Cincinnati.  I love the Bearcats this year.  Love 'em.  Deonta Vaughn is a stone-cold killer at guard, and he's back with more help.  Yancy Gates is a big man who made the all Big East freshman team last year and is just going to get better, and there's plenty of other help here with four starters coming back, and after the fall semester will be joined in the paint by former Oklahoma State center Ibrahima Thomas, giving them another low post scorer and solid defender.  Another big help will come from freshman Cashmere Wright, a top 100 prospect last year before hurting his knee and missing the entire season.  Cincinnati is loaded with combo guard types, but Wright gives them a true point guard, which should help Vaughn score even more.  The real wild card here is SF Lance Stephenson, a top 10 recruit, a McDonald's All-American, and the all-time leading scorer in New York High School basketball history.  He's still a question mark on academics, and has been a bit of a handful in high school, getting in trouble for getting in a fight with a teammate as well as for "groping" a girl against her will in the hallway (you know she wanted it).  His issues are such that high profile schools such as UNC and Kansas pulling out of his recruitment.  If he gets eligible and can mesh with his new teammates, the sky is the limit for the Bearcats.  If he doesn't, or if he's a discipline problem, they could end up anywhere from a good team to a disaster.  At 200-1 to win the whole thing, this is a great option to put $5 down on.

5.  Georgetown.  Greg Monroe was insanely impressive last season, and despite averaging a fairly pedestrian 12.7 points and 6.5 rebounds last season he loooked ready to break out at any time.  Trust me, if you watched him play at all he looks amazing.  Already as a freshman he could handle the ball on the perimeter, and not just passing, I watched him put it on the floor and drive right passed several slower, less agile centers.  He also already possessed a handful of moves on the block and a decent mid-range game, and is a capable defender.  Last season you could see he was willing to play a more complimentary role, even though he probably shouldn't have.  If he comes into this season with a more assertive attitude, there's no way the Hoyas end up without a bid and an inexplicably horrible record like they did last season.  I'm telling you, if you have a chance to watch Monroe next season, take the time to check him out.  He'll probably be a Wolf soon.

6.  Louisville.  Losing Terrence Williams and Earl Clark is not going to be easy.  Those two did essentially everything for the Cardinals, outside of three point shooting.  They were the top 2 scorers, rebounders, and assist men for Louisville last year, and so it's understandable to expect the team to take a step back.  How far will mainly depend on Samardo Samuels, who couldn't even stop Travis Busch.  Last year Samuels was the third option and played well, but this season he will need to become the man.  Another important player, and massive head-scratcher, is point guard Edgar Sosa.  As a freshman, he played brilliantly at times, put up very good numbers for a first year player, and looked like he was going to be the next "big-time PG from New York."  Instead, he's taken a step backward after a step backward, and now goes into his senior year with just one more chance to try to recapture whatever it is he lost from his debut season.  If he can't, freshman Peyton Siva is now on board, and was ranked #39 on the Rivals 150.  He could easily end up taking Sosa's job - if Rick Pitino manages to stop banging broads long enough to pay attention. 


7.  Syracuse.  Every where I turn it seems like there's a new article about how Iowa State transfer Wesley Johnson is like, the greatest transfer of all-time and he's going to carry the Orange and I don't get.  Don't get me wrong, he's a good player and all (averaged 12 points and 4 rebounds his last year at ISU), but he's no savior.  He wasn't highly recruited out of high school, and although he burst on the scene his freshman year he regressed quite a bit in year two.  If Syracuse wasn't losing Paul Harris (one of my favorites the last few years), criminal Eric Devendorf, and Jonny Flynn, he might be the missing piece that vaults them to the top - but those guys are all gone.  There is still some quality talent here, and I love watching Arinze Onuaku, who really doesn't mess around and try to get all fancy.  He just gets the ball, knocks defenders over, and then dunks on their stupid heads.  The Cuse should be good again, assuming they find some guard play somewhere, but let's calm down a wee tad on Wesley.

8.  Notre Dame.  Harangody is back - yes again - which makes the Irish dangerous in any given game, but the majority of his supporting cast is gone, and I'm not sure if that's good or bad after last year's total flame out.  None of the incoming recruits are particularly impressive, with apologies to Minnesota's own Mike Broghammer, so it's going to fall on returning veterans to get the Irish back to the NCAA Tournament.  They do have their starting point guard back in little Tory Jackson.  He's very hard to keep out of the paint, but is not a good outside shooter and, although he's improved his free-throw shooting, can be a liability at the end of games.  Two transfers were supposed to shore up the team this season, Ben Hansbrough from Mississippi State and Scott Martin from Purdue.  Hansbrough will be key if they want to get to the NCAAs, but Martin got hurt and is going to miss the whole season. 


9.  Seton Hall.  This is a really interesting team, and on paper they have a chance to be much better than 9th.  It starts with their returning star, shooting guard Jeremy Hazell.  He's a scoring machine who can get hot at a moment's notice, and averaged 22.7 points per game last season, second in the Big East, despite shooting just 42%.  Less might be more here, and he should have more help this season, beyond even the two other returning double digit scorers returning to the Pirates in the form of a couple of interesting transfers, one inside and one outside.  The perimeter guy is Keon Lawrence, who comes to the Hall via Missouri.  Lawrence is an excellent scorer (he put up 9.7 and 11.0 ppg in his two years at Mizzou) who will help take some pressure off of Hazell, and is talented enough to shoulder the scoring load some nights (he put up 25 against Kansas one year).  Power Forward Herb Pope, the other transfer - this time from New Mexico State, might be even more important since the Pirates a bit thin on the inside.  Pope was a high school superstar - ranked #31 by Rivals and offered by Texas, Pitt, and Memphis - and averaged 11 points and 7 rebounds per game in his one season in the desert.  If everything and everyone pulls together and meshes well, an NCAA Tournament bid isn't out of the question.

10.  Pitt.  Thank god Pitt is finally going to take a step back this year, I've been getting more tired of that program than I can possibly express in words.  They lose pretty much everybody, which is good news for me because rotund irritant Levance Fields is finally gone, but is bad for Pitt.  Their leading returning scorer, and only 20+ minute guy who is coming back, Jermaine Dixon, is more of a defensive specialist than any kind of offensive threat.  Of course, Jamie Dixon couldn't just relax for a little bit, and he is bringing in a very good recruiting class - including Rivals #14 prospect Dante Taylor, who has a good chance to win Big East ROY - so this break from having Pitt up in your face every time you turn on ESPN will be short-lived.  Enjoy it folks, I know I will.   

11.  Rutgers.  I always find myself rooting for Rutgers and I think there are two reasons.  The first, is that I liked watching Quincy "rolling a" Douby and that other guy whose name I can't remember right now when they were there and the Scarlet Knights were actually good.  The second is that they have a great home court advantage when they are good, and they call the place the RAC which is pronounced like "rack", of which I am a big fan.  So maybe I'm overrating them a tad but I think Rutgers could sneak up on a few people this season, especially at home.  The program's first McDonald's All-American, Mike Rosario, paid immediate dividends, leading the team in scoring, but something more needs to happen if this is Rutgers return to prominence.  They add a pretty decent batch of newcomers, which includes top 100 recruit SF Dane Miller, top 40 JuCo James Beatty - who will probably start at PG from day one, and a small forward transfer from Florida in Jonathan Mitchell, a top 100 recruit in 2006 and a bit player on Florida's second National Championship team.  In a down Big East, maybe this is their year.

12.  Marquette.  Jerel McNeal, Dominic James, and Wes Matthews were without question on of the best three-man backcourts I have ever seen, and maybe the best since Lethal Weapon 3 (the aesome Georgia Tech one, not the craptacualrly overrated South Carolina nickname stealing one).  But yeah, those guys are gone.  Swingman Lazar Haywood is back at least, and despite being in the guards shadow a bit he's developed into an outstanding player - did you know that other than Luke Harangody, Haywood was the only Big East player to rank in the top 10 in both scoring and rebounding last season?  I bet you had no idea he was that good, did you?  There's some nice players coming in this year's recruiting class, with, no surprise, an emphasis on the perimeter, including Rivals #47 Jeronne Maymon, who the Gophers were looking at for a time, but unless Hayward has a super human year, I don't think we'll see the Golden Eagles back in the NCAA tournament.


13.  St. Johns.  The Redmen or Red Storm or Reds or whatever they are have an interesting group of talent this year - they should be deep, but I just don't know if they'll be good.  They lose nobody off of their 6-12 Big East team from last year, and have plenty of balance with five players who scored between 9 and 15 points per game - although Anthony Mason only played 3 games last year.  Mason is still hurt, and will be out 4-6 weeks, so it will be interesting to see what happens when he tries to return as lead dog and reintegrate with his teammates who will have played over a season's worth of games without him.   

14. South Florida.  Did you know that South Florida had one of the best all-around players in the Big East?  Me neither, but they do and he's only a junior.  Dominique Jones, a 6-4 guard out of Florida, was a bit underrated coming out of high school (3 stars, unranked, mid-major type offers), but he's certainly blossomed with the Bulls.  He finished 9th in the conference in scoring (18.1 ppg), was 27th in rebounding (5.6 rpg), and was 12th in assists at 3.9 per game, and also led the Bulls in steals and was second in blocks while scoring in double figures in 55 of his 62 career games.  Yeah, he's good.  There's not a ton of help around him, but the best recruiting class the Bulls have had in a long time is coming in this year, and two transfers - PG Anthony Crater from Ohio State and C Jarrid Famous from a JuCo - bring hope, if nothing else.  Crater is especially important because Jones won't have to worry about playing the point, and that should lead to a huge year.


15. Providence.  I liked the Friars last year quite a bit, but they could never quite rise above "pesky" and fell just short of gaining an NCAA bid.  Now five of the top seven guys are gone, and although Sharaud Curry and Marshon Brooks are good players, replacing two thirds of the team's scoring from last season is no easy feat, and a big burden will fall on a huge group of newcomers.  The closest thing to a standout in the group is PG Johnnie Lacy (#143 according to Rivals), whose name you might remember because the Gophers had given him a scholarship offer.  Unless a couple of juco guys work out really well, it will probably be a long year for the Friars, but with a good class this year and an even better one already in the works for next year, things should turn around, unlike

16.  DePaul.  The worst arena in the country hosts what might be, once again, the worst major conference team in the country.  Seems fitting.  The Blue Demons didn't win a single conference game (until a shocker of a win in the Big East tournament), and now see their best player leave for the NBA draft (note:  he didn't get drafted).  There's some talent here, Mac Koshwal is a great all around player and Will "Wheel" Walker is a good scorer, but that's about it.  Krys Faber, who chose DePaul over Minnesota, is still here as well, and is probably going to be questioning his decision when he's watching the Gophers in the tournament from his dorm room, because I don't think DePaul even has as much as a CBI bid in them.



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