Tournament Season now Hits the Big Guys

Ok I missed the Monday tournaments.  That's okay though, because I'm going to cover them today along with Tuesday's kick-offs which is when some of the big dogs come out to play.  I know many of you were lost on Monday night, wondering about the MAC and the MEAC and for that I apologize, but like a beacon in the dark I am here to walk you through.

Lots of stuff happened this weekend, including Kentucky, Baylor, and Boise got the big wins they needed while Iowa State, Ole Miss, and Cincy avoided what would have been crushing losses.  Belmont made there be one less bubble team by winning the autobid in the OVC (Davidson won the SoCon's autobid last night but they probably weren't getting an at-large in any case), and Oklahoma (probably still in), Colorado (probably still in), and Louisiana Tech (needs autobid now) picked up ugly losses along with the Gophers.

What does this all mean?  Well, along with the pairings coming out and showing the Gophers taking on Illinois in the opening round of the Big Ten Tournament it means the Gophers are in no matter what.  Illinois's RPI is 42, which means a loss is just fine and a win would be a very good win.  With most projectionists putting the Gophers in the 8-10 range there's no way a good loss knocks them out.  So congratulations?

Ideally the Gophers would beat Illinois and Indiana and jump up to a six seed to avoid facing a 1 or 2 in a quasi-home game situation, but to be honest I'm just hoping they don't embarrass themselves again.  It's good to have goals.  On to the tournaments!

MID-AMERICAN CONFERENCE
For most of the season Akron was a fringe-y bubble team.  They had dominated the MAC, going 13-0 with just four out-of-conference losses (3 in overtime) marring an otherwise perfect record - losses to Oklahoma State, Detroit, and Creighton are acceptable, losing to Coastal Carolina is not.  Unfortunately a non-conference slate then with only a win over Middle Tennessee and a whole slew of cupcakes kept them from serious at-large consideration, and a loss to Buffalo last Saturday (RPI #226), the suspension of starting point guard and leading assist man Alex Abreu for possession of five pounds of pot, and a follow up loss to Kent State (RPI #146) have the Zips not only on the outside looking in of an at-large bid, but no longer the favorite in this tournament.  
FAVORITE:  Ohio.  With Akron's issues with Smokey the Bobcats, who despite finishing out MAC play at 14-2 would have to describe this season as disappointing.  This is an exciting team with a kick-ass point guard in D.J. Cooper (and the money he took) who will look for answers but that ain't fun so he'll get in the pit and try to love someone.  Seriously though this is basically the same team who beat Georgetown in the tournament two years ago and made the Sweet 16 last season, they just whiffed on every opportunity to get a good win and had a super shitty schedule, thus win or in.  Dangerous team.  I hope they win.   
SLEEPER:  Eastern Michigan.  Kent State probably has a better chance of winning but I wouldn't really consider them a sleeper the way EMU is.  They 7 seed, the Eagles interest me because they are the top MAC team in 3-point defense, shot blocking, and stealing the ball.  They're a pretty dynamic defensive team so you never know.  They're also horrific offensively so you kind of do.
W's PICK:  Ohio.  Bawitdaba da bang a dang diggy diggy diggy said the boogy said up jump the boogy.

MID-EASTERN ATLANTIC CONFERENCE
Let's just get this out of the way:  the MEAC is terrible, and they're terrible every year.  Outside of the SWAC there's no other conference more guaranteed to end up in the play-in game.  On one of the old college basketball games on playstation I used to have you had an option to to start from a bottom of the barrel program and try to work your way up by winning enough games - of the 10 options at least five of them were MEAC schools and it might have been more.  That being said, of the six #15 seeds to knock off a #2 in round 1 two of them (Coppin State and Norfolk State) were MEAC schools. So I guess that's something.
FAVORITE: Norfolk State.  Despite losing their top two scorers from last year's Missouri beating squad, the Spartans crushed the MEAC going 16-0.  For some reason I now have a very uneasy feeling that if Tubby is let go by the Gophers Norfolk's State guy is going to come up far too often for my tastes.
SLEEPER:  North Carolina Central.  Interesting that Norfolk went 16-0, UNCC went 15-1, and they never played each other.  They also don't have a single win between the two that remotely resembles a quality victory, but that's far less surprising.  UNCC could be tricky because they are the top ranked defense in the conference in almost every single advanced metric.  Of the eight main ones the Eagles (what's with all the Eagles, man?) rank 1st in six of them.  Seems relevant.  
W's PICK:  Norfolk State.  I've spent too much time on this conference as is, so I'll just take the team that's been there before and has the #1 seed.  Why complicate things?

WESTERN ATHLETIC CONFERENCE
If you remember when I wrote about the Sun Belt (this would make you kind of a weirdo) I said I was rooting so hard for Middle Tennessee because I wasn't sure they'd get an at-large if they lost and I really wanted to see them in the tournament (they lost in the semis and it's looking dicey).   This is relevant because before last week Louisiana Tech looked a lot like Middle Tennessee but less fancy.  They were 16-0 in the conference and 26-3 overall, and even if the computer numbers weren't in their favor they were going to be tough to ignore if they ran the table and then fell in the WAC Tournament Final.  Luckily for the seeding committee they decided to go in the tank and got crushed by both New Mexico State (by 18) and Denver (by 24) and that is that.
FAVORITE:  Denver.  Although La Tech retained the #1 seed despite that late swoon, Vegas recognizes them for the pretender they were and installed Denver as the favorite.  With good reason, considering the Pioneers rank tops in the conference in both offensive and defensive efficiency.  It could all be fraudulent since Denver is another team that fits the Wisconsin/Virginia mold, but they're an interesting team who would absolutely have a chance to bore a team into a loss if they make the NCAAs.
SLEEPER: Utah State.  I'm a huge fan of the Aggies, as you would know if you paid more attention to me you asshole, and this is a bit of an off year for them since they usually dominate these WAC dorks. You can't really count out a Stew Morrill led USU team, can you?  Other than this year, I mean.
W's PICK:  Louisiana Tech.  Yes, the Bulldogs only played one non-shitty team in non-conference and lost to Texas A&M by 12.  Yes, they somehow lost to McNeese State and Northwestern State.  Yes, when they had a bye mid-week late in the season they scheduled Central Baptist College and won by 70 rather than having a decent team on the docket.  Maybe, I'm starting to rethink this pick but it's too late to go back now.

BIG EAST CONFERENCE
And here we go.  Big time conferences get rolling starting with the old Big East in it's last hurrah.  Plenty still to play for, as Georgetown has as shot at a #1 while Louisville could possibly get it as well depending on what happens around the country.  Syracuse is looking to find whatever it seems to have lost and Marquette wants to show it's more than just a home court bully, while both Villanova and Cincinnati are looking to shore up their at-large bids.
FAVORITE:  Georgetown.  The Hoyas, Louisville, and Marquette tied a top the conference at 14-4 with G-Town getting the favorable draw thanks to tie-breakers.  They should also be considered the favorite because they are also coming in hot.  The Hoya defense is coming on strong (the last team to score 70+ in non-overtime against the Hoyas was Pitt on January 8th)  and Otto Porter is starting to give off a big John Wallace type vibe where I can see him putting the team's offense on his back and the Hoyas riding the defense deep into the tourney.  I'm having a hell of a time trying to convince myself not to put them in the Final Four.
SLEEPER:  Providence.  They're a bit of a deep sleeper what with the 9 seed and all, but with so many good teams to find a true sleeper can be a little bit tougher in a conference like this.  The Friars boast the league's leading scorer in Bryce Cotton and after a rough start to the season that included losses to Penn State, Brown, and DePaul they've started to really come together.  Providence has won seven of its last nine with the only losses to Syracuse and UCONN on the road.  Winning four games is probably a bit much but, you know, it's happened before.    
W's PICK:  Louisville.  The number one defensive team in the country who both causes a ton of turnovers and holds opponents to terrible shooting percentages.  Their record this year is 26-5, and the five losses are to potential number 1 seed Duke by 5 (neutral site), by 2 to Syracuse when they were still good, by 9 at Villanova when the Wildcats were on that tear where they also beat Cuse, at potential #1 seed Georgetown by 2, and at Notre Dame in five Overtimes.  There may be more exciting teams and more upside-y teams, but the absolute safest bet, regardless of 1 or 2 seed, to get to the Final Four this year is the Cardinals.

MOUNTAIN WEST CONFERENCE
The conference that has risen the most in national rankings over the last few years, the MWC actually ranks third at kenpom behind the Big Ten and Big East.  As good as it is, however, there's not really much to play for here.  New Mexico, UNLV, Colorado State, and San Diego State are already locked in, and Boise State, by way of wins over SDSU and CSU in the last week and a half is probably in as well, and with an opening round match-up against the Aztecs again they can't hurt themselves.
FAVORITE:  New Mexico.  Believe it or not this a damn good league, and the Lobos going 13-3 in league play is damn impressive.  There are nine teams in this league and five of them rank in the top 50 (kenpom) with two more in the top 100.  The Lobos not only rolled the league, but also picked up wins over Davidson, UCONN, Valpo, and Cincy this year.  You're going to be tempted to underrate New Mexico when you fill out your bracket, but I'd disrecommend that.  
SLEEPER: Air Force.  It's tough to find a sleeper in a league where the top 5 teams are awesome and the bottom two suck (well, Wyoming has sucked after a great start after kicking leading scorer Luke Martinez off the team for something as innocent as getting a 15-yard running start before kicking an unconscious person in the head in a bar fight), but Air Force fits the bill well enough.  They play in the Wisconsin/Virginia style of slow but efficient play and that can always fuck people up and they've beaten four out of the five top teams in the MWC this year.  They've also been terrible outside Colorado Springs, and the tournament is not in Colorado Springs, so they're probably hosed.  
W's PICK:  UNLV.  The tournament is not in Colorado Springs but it is in Las Vegas, and more specifically at the Thomas & Mack Center which just so happens to be the Runnin' Rebels' home gym.  In a league that tightly packed at the top home court could make all the difference.  Plus I had this picture.

NCAA Basketball Preview - Big East

Ok, conference realignment has officially become out-of-control.  The Big East already has 16 teams, but now because they're losing Syracuse (sad) and Pitt (who cares) and have now seen TCU pull out of joining to become a Big 12 team instead they overreact in the opposite direction and add Houston, Southern Methodist, Central Florida, Air Force, and Boise State.  Except Air Force and Boise State will only be joining for football.  This move does absolutely nothing for basketball except to further weaken a Big East already weakened by the defections, unless you think the recent strong recruiting seen by Houston is sustainable - and I don't.

At first I thought all this conference realignment stuff was kind of cool, but at this point it's just gotten completely out of hand.  I don't even know who went where or who didn't or what's merging.  Like that Conference USA/Mountain West merger - does that effect hoops in any way?  I don't know.  It's too confusing.  I think it's time to just to to one big conference.  Easier that way.

1.  UCONN HUSKIES.  How are they #1 in a tough conference despite losing Kemba Walker?  Because everybody else is back, including Jeremy Lamb (who started to look like a star at the end of last year) and Alex Oriakhi (who is always solid defensively and now his offense is coming along), as well as a group of sophomores (of which Lamb is a part) who were ranked as the #20 recruiting class in the country last season by ESPN.  Oh, and they have one of the best classes in the country coming in with PG Ryan Boatright (#42 rivals), SF DeAndre Daniels (#10), and C Andre Drummond (#2).  Drummond is ridiculous and he's probably going to make people cry, and will likely be the #1 overall pick in next year's NBA Draft if it happens.  Seriously, UCONN is a big-time threat to win back-to-back titles.  Doubtful, yes, but a better chance than most.

2. SYRACUSE ORANGE.  God Boeheim is just incredible - great class after great class after great class.  He's followed up last year's top five class with a top 10 class this year, adding SG Michael Carter-Williams (Rivals #29 overall) and C Rakeem Christmas (#27) to last year's group that included C Fab Melo (#16), SF C.J. Fair (#94), and SG Dion Waiters (#29).  Scoop Jardine and Brandon Triche will be back on the perimeter to run things and awkwardly heave the ball at the rim, and scoring machine Kris Joseph is back for more.  The only real question is if Christmas (freshman) or Melo (super-subpar first year) can fill in for Rick "Automatic Double-Double" Jackson.  If they can, this is a national title contender.  If not, they'll be lucky to make it out of the first weekend of the NCAA Tournament.

3.  LOUISVILLE CARDINALS.  I have a feeling about this Louisville team, and it's not necessarily a good one.  I do think they'll be good and a legit Final Four contender, but I also think they're very ripe for some ugly nights.  It will basically all come down to Peyton Siva and how well he can control the offense, because with Preston Knowles gone he's now in charge of a whole bunch of talent, but a whole bunch of talent that's a little bit crazy.  The Cards have everything you'd need - excellent point guard, dead-eye shooting, perimeter and interior defense, and three incoming swingmen who all rank on in Rivals Top 70 (and a center as well), so really it's going to come down to how well they mesh - and that is going to depend on Siva.

4.  PITT PANTHERS.  I think at some point Pitt turned itself into kind of a minor dynasty (conference only).  They somehow shed the legacy of crappy overrated point guards like Brandin Knight, Carl Krauer, and LeVance Fields and are now actually acquiring good, quality players like Ashton Gibbs who is probably the best player in the conference.  They do lose quite a bit with three starters (including the giant version of kid from Kid N Play which makes me sad), and Gibbs biggest help now is a guy who is already hurt and missing most/all the preseason practice time, a point guard who makes LeVance Fields look like Craig Hodges, and a former big time recruit whose failed to average more than 5 points per game in his two seasons at Pitt.  But you watch, Gibbs will find a way, and Pitt will break into the top 10 at some point this year.  Big fan of this kid.

5.  VILLANOVA WILDCATS.  Villanova is turning into Chucker University, and this year is shaping up to be no exception as Maalik Wayns looks to become the next in the recent line of all-time great chuckers following Scottie Reynolds, the two Coreys, Allen Ray, and Randy Foye.  The real great news is that Wayns looks like he has a chance to be the greatest of them all.  His shooting percentage of 40% last year and 3-point percentage of just 27% were some of the worst numbers any of these chuckers put up at any point in their careers, but that didn't stop Wayns from taking the third most shots (and 3-pointers) on the team behind the two Coreys.  Really, the stars could be aligning for a spectacular two final years of his career.  I'm so excited.

6.  CINCINNATI BEARCATS.  Why do I have some trouble believing in Cincy?  It could be because there best player is named Yancy, but really there's a lot to like about the Bearcats this year.  Besides the aforementioned Yancy Gates, their leading scorer and rebounder last year, they also return essentially every player from last year's team that knocked off a very good Missouri team in the NCAA Tournament last year, and also add Shaquille Thomas and Jermaine Sanders, two athletic wings who will fit well in Mick Cronin's hyper-defensive system.  The biggest issue here will be Cashmere Wright, who is back to play the point for a third year.  Except he can't shoot, turns the ball over too much, and isn't a great distributor.  So I guess they got that goin' for 'em.

7.  MARQUETTE EAGLES.  Jimmy Butler was a do-everything type player and he's gone, but luckily for Marquette Darius Johnson-Odom is back and he's a do-everything type as well who was pretty much just as good as Butler last year and has a chance to be an absolute super star this year without having to share touches with Butler.  Jae Crowder lived up to his billing as one of the better JuCo players last season, looking unstoppable on the block at times despite a shaky shooting percentage and could be a big-time player this year.  The biggest key for Marquette will be the backcourt with Vander Blue coming off a disappointing freshman year where he had more turnovers than assists and shot at a worse percentage than Maalik Wayns.  Junior Cadougan is serviceable but not a star, so they really need Blue to live up to his pre-college hype.

8.  WEST VIRGINIA MOUNTAINEERS.  Joel Mazzulla, captain bricklayer himself, is gone along with their best scorer in Casey Mitchell and their best defender, or at least one of, in John Flowers.  Even so, Huggy Bear will have these guys in contention for an NCAA bid because they're always going to play tough defense and Kevin Jones is back and ripe for a Big East player of the year type season.  The biggest key will be Truck Bryant, who will have to pretty much main the point alone with Maz gone.  Assuming he can avoid running into cars this season, WVU should be ok.

9.  NOTRE DAME FIGHTING IRISH.  Obviously most of these previews are me combining my limited knowledge on these teams with what I can read, both online and in print, and trying to come up with some decent conclusions.  So basically a lot of guessing.  One thing I'm not guessing about, however, and I'll make it a guarantee, is that you're going to be sick of hearing about Tim Abromaitis by the end of this season.  Seriously, between him and Scott Martin the Irish are going to once again be the great white hope, except now the third wheel in little Hansbrough is gone and I have this crazy feeling Abromaitis is going to have a Harangody like season, only less behemoth-y.  Put on your gritty, hustly, heady, smart player shoes because it's going to be a rough year if you watch any of there games.  And god help you if they actually end up good.  God.  Help.  You.

10.  GEORGETOWN HOYAS.  For the last several years the Hoyas have been a big-time March threat - at least on paper - and it's been on the strength of their guard play.  Unfortunately for them, they're in the habit of getting bounced to early and two of their three stud guards are now gone.  The one remaining, Jason Clark, was more of the third wheel type, and will now have to become the #1 option, and basically the difference for the Hoyas between a good or bad season, because between him and Hollis Thompson - who is the only offensive big man of consequence who is returning, they're going to have to be most of the offense for this team.  There are three highly regarded freshmen big men coming in, but other than throwing a right hook at some chinaman who knows if they'll be worth a damn. 

11.  RUTGERS SCARLET KNIGHTS.  Ever since Quincy Douby left Rutgers hasn't been able to build any momentum.  Even when they snag a great recruiting class with two Top 50 players like they did in 2008 things fall apart and both players ended up transferring before the end of their careers.  That being said, a new coach and another excellent class (ranked #24 nationally and 6th in the conference by Rivals) has hope welling up once again in Jersey.  If they ever get good the RAC gives them a nice home court advantage, so remember that when you're gambling.

12.  SOUTH FLORIDA BULLS.  You remember Anthony Crater?  The point guard who came aboard at Ohio State in the same class that netted the Buckeyes B.J. Mullens and William Buford, then quit 2 months into the season after shooting 3-15 from the floor in 10 games because he didn't get to start (keep in mind OSU's guards were Evan Turner, Buford, David Lighty, Jon Diebler, and Jeremie Simmons)?  He's played at USF the last two seasons and averaged less than 4 points per game both years despite playing over 25 minutes per game, and was kicked off the team in May for "violating team rules."  I don't know why, but that story makes me laugh.  Probably because he seemed like such a douche.

13.  SETON HALL PIRATES.  I don't know why I'm so drawn to Seton Hall.  Maybe it's because I fell in love with Shaheen Holloway, or maybe it's because a dude I played against (and got crushed by) in high school ended up going there (Darius Lane), but I also half-root for the Pirates and actually have a Seton Hall hat somewhere.  Unfortunately this year is going to be a rough one for the Pirates with Jeremy Hazell, the Big East's third leading scorer last year, and Jeff Robinson, the team's second leading scorer, both gone along with a whole bunch of supporting bits.  Herb Pope is still a freaking stud with bullets in his body and Jordan Theodore can score, but there just isn't much here unless Pope goes insane.  More than usual, I mean.

14.  ST. JOHNS RED STORM.   They would be higher, seeing as how Lavin came in and immediately grabbed a top 3 class to come play in NYC, but then things unraveled and three of the newcomers were ruled ineligible, and they just happened to be the #23, #51, and #68 recruits in the country.  There's still good talent coming in, but St. John's is trying to replace essentially everybody from last year and losing those three hurts, especially because the #51 guy - Jakarr Sampson - has already transferred out (maybe the other's have too but I'm not looking it up because I've already spent too much time on this one).  Lavin will turn things around in a hurry, maybe just in slightly less of a hurry than it looked.  I wonder if he's gone crooked yet or if he's waiting another year.

15.  PROVIDENCE FRIARS.  Marshon Brooks was really, really good at scoring.  He was also the rare player who was kind of a chucker, but was an efficient chucker.  I'm not really sure why I'm talking about him because he's now in the NBA if there was an NBA, but it's probably because I don't know anything else about Providence.  They do have two other double-digit scorers back from last year.  Shrug.

16.  DEPAUL BLUE DEMONS.  Talk about horrible.  I read somewhere that DePaul has gone 2-52 in Big East play over the last three seasons.  I knew they were bad, but assumed that was a misprint and looked it up myself.  Sure enough, they're 2-52.  And it's not fixing to change.  Despite being in the heart of Chicago, a nice high school hoops town, they can't get anybody to attend DePaul because of Dumpster Arena.  I just don't know how they're going to get out of this mess.  I guess they have a little momentum, what with Cleveland Melvin winning Big East Rookie of the Year last year and stealing DeJuan Marrero away from the Gophers recently, but yuck.  You'd think one of Illinois, Northwestern, DePaul, or UIC would have to be good, but here we are.

College Basketball Preview: The Big East

 1.  Villanova Wildcats.  I'm very glad Scottie Reynolds, one of my top five most hated college players of all-time, is gone, because I can go back to not hating Villanova right as they look to finally be balanced enough to be a real national title contender - and I mean a real threat, not a media-driven threat that was obviously going to flame out early - thanks again to Reynolds.  Perimeter driven for years, this year Jay Wright and the Wildcats will have a balanced attack. Antonio Pena has made a huge leap from where he was as a freshman to become an excellent inside scoring threat and two sophomores (Mouphtaou Yarou and Isaiah Armwood) were highly regarding coming in last year and had very nice freshman years - and of course Nova is loaded with guards as they always are.  So I guess is what I'm saying is we actually have to worry about Villanova and I don't like it one bit. 

2.  Syracuse Orange.  The Orange lose a lot - again, but Jim Boeheim just reloads - again.  Losing Andy Rautins, Arinze Onuaku, and Wes Johnson would cripple most teams and send them into rebuilding mode, but not the Cuse.  Fab Melo (#2 center) is a better Onuaku, and SF C.J. Fair (#94 overall) and SG Dion Waiters (#29 overall) may not be the equal of Johnson and Rautins, but they'll ease their loss.  Biggest keys to Orange success will be how Kris Joseph develops, and he is looking like he could end up being the next Syracuse star, and finding a shooter to replace Rautins and Johnson, who made 61% of the team's three balls between them at a combined 41% clip.  This is where Mookie Jones (45% last year) can fit in.  Plus, you (and everyone) need a little more Mookie in your life.  You know it's true.

3.  Pittsburgh Panthers.  I've never seen a Pitt team I liked, and I'm not going to start now, but it's impossible to deny that they look pretty loaded this year.  The real question is if Ashton Gibbs is a bonifide star or just another in a long line of Pitt point guards who got a disproportionate amount of praise for their skill  level and couldn't shoot.  Look it up, but from Brandin Knight to Carl Krauser to Levance Fields, Pitt always has point guards who couldn't hit a jump shot if they were in an empty gym, but were universally loved and praised by the media.  I'm afraid Gibbs, who shot under 40% from the field last year, is yet another one and is going to cause my anti-Pitt rage to fire itself back up again, despite all the anti-rage medication I'm on.

4.  Georgetown Hoyas.  Georgetown is going to look a little weird this year because they're going to be missing the most Georgetowny thing - a good, big center.  From Ewing, Mourning, and Mutumbo to Hibbert and Monroe, they always seem to have a good center (not counting all those years between Mutumbo and Hibbert), but not this year.  What they do have, however, is a trio of very good guards in Chris Wright (scored 20 in 3 of team's last 4 games), Austin Freeman (leading scorer last year at 16.5 per game), and Jason Clark (42% three-point shooter).  It seems like the Hoyas have disappointed every year since their Final Four year, so maybe this is another breakthrough coming since they say guard play is the key in March.  And, in case you're really concerned, they did sign 6-10 Moses Abraham, the #11 center in the country for 2010, and he could eventually develop into a top flight center in a year or two.  Long live tradition.

5.  West Virginia Mountaineers.  Devin Ebanks and Da'Sean Butler are massive losses, particularly Butler who wasn't only their best player but also a stone cold end of game killer, but there's still enough here to make the Mountaineers an NCAA Tournament team.  Kevin Jones was basically Butler's understudy all year and is a very similar player who I expect to take a big leap forward and help lead this team, and they get both of their point guards back in Joel Mazzulla (who can't shoot) and Truck Bryant (who seems to alternate between being injured and being in trouble).  There are a lot of questions on the interior and a lot of pressure will be on John Flowers and Deniz Kilicli (and Kevin Noreen, who is from Minneapolis and the Gophers had zero interest in so that will be interesting to see how that works out).  Also Noah Cottrill (freshman PG) looks just like the Professor and as such I love him.


6.  St. Johns Red Storm.  Might be a little high, but optimism reigns in NYC for a once proud program who has fallen into irrelevance, and I'm buying into it.  New coach Steve Lavin finally left the booth for this job, and he's hit the ground running already landing a couple of big time recruits for 2011.  But don't think the only optimism is for the future, this year's squad returns nearly everybody from last year's NIT team, and they have a good mix of inside and outside scoring.  I'm not saying we're heading back to the glory days of Felipe Lopez and Zendon Hamilton or anything, but don't be surprised if they surprise some people (but not you because I just told you they'd be good.)

7.  Connecticut Huskies.  I've got a weird feeling about UCONN, and I am starting to think their run as a top flight college hoops program might be coming to a close.  Now, they're still good now and should make the NCAA Tournament this year (although they should have been one of the best team's in the country last year and that didn't exactly work out) and they continue to get good recruiting classes, but there's a lot going on here.  Calhoun's health issues, the new NCAA infractions (that have led to two assistant coaches getting canend), Ater Majok leaving...I don't know, it just feels like bad news coming, whether the NCAA hammers the program or not.  In any case, they'll be good this year and Kemba Walker is a stud.  At least until he gets arrested.

8.  Notre Dame Fighting Irish.  Better without Harangody?  Yep, and if you recall, they made their late run at an NCAA bid when he was on the shelf last year, winning their last four regular season games, including wins over 2 ranked teams and 2 bubble teams, then winning two in the Big East tournament to grab an NCAA berth.  This year white guy central and top two players Ben Hansbrough and Tim Abromaitis will add a third top white guy in Purdue transfer Scott Martin.  You may remember him as the fourth member of Purdue's E'Twaun Moore/JaJuan Johnson/Robbie Hummel class who was actually ranked similarly to Hummel by Rivals.  He had a solid freshman year, then transferred (and had to sit out), and then blew out his knee before last season began, so this will actually be his first action since 2007 (much like my good friend Theory).  The biggest question, however, is can they find a point guard to get all these white shooters the ball?

9.  Marquette Eagles.  Marquette was supposed to be down last year after losing their kick-ass guard trio, but Lazar Hayward (T-Wolves, what up?) was a beast and Jimmy Butler made huge leaps and helped carry the Golden Eagles to the NCAA Tournament where they just barely dropped their first round game to Washington.  Hayward is gone, as are starting guards David Cubillon and Maurice Acker, but Butler returns along with third leading scorer Darius Johnson-Odom.  If they get can good point play from either sophomore Junior Cadougan or freshman Vander Blue they might surprise some people.  As long as they beat Wisconsin (they play every year, don't they?) I'll be happy.  Go to hell, Badgers, go to hell.

10.  Seton Hall Pirates.  This might actually be a bit low for the Pirates, as I think they have real sleeper potential - in the conference, not necessarily nationally - but they also have a high chance of implosion as well.  Herb Pope is as talented as anyone but is essentially a walking injury risk, Jeremy Hazell is a scoring machine but is also a tremendous chucker, Keon Lawrence was very good for Missouri but had a terrible year last season in his first as a Pirate, and Jeff Robinson - well, I have nothing really to say there.  But the moral of the story is the Pirates have their top four players back, but with a new coach and some volatile personalities this story can go either way.  I'm rooting for things to go well, I do own a Seton Hall hat after all, but it will be interesting.  Last year, coach Bobby Gonzalez played a wide-open, uptempo style, but new coach Kevin Willard's Iona was a slow-down, deliberate team.  Interesting to see how that all ends up shaking out.

11.  Louisville Cardinals.  Another down year is in the cards for the cards before things start to turn around with a great class Pitino is bringing in for 2011.  Louisville loses its top three scorers from last season in Samardo Samuels, Edgar Sosa, and Jerry Smith, along with fellow starter , leaving the team with a whole lot of role players and no star power.  I don't know, I guess Terrence Jennings was supposed to be the next Earl Clark/Terrence Williams/Francisco Garcia, but man Pitino already has a very good 2011 class coming in, even after missing on a couple of key targets, so this is going to be a transition year and probably not very fun.  Except maybe for Rick, assuming he finds another team employee's wife to hump around with.

12.  South Florida Bulls.  Dominique Jones was completely awesome, and losing him is a big blow, but there's still some talent here in Tampa.  Gus Gilchrist and Jarrid Famous are both over 6-10, and both are excellent interior scorers and good rebounders.  That kind of size and talent is going to give some teams fits.  Former Ohio State problem child Anthony Crater is still getting in trouble now that he's a Bull, and didn't exactly light it up when he did play, but he was once a pretty highly regarded point guard coming out of high school with a lot of good offers from a lot of good programs.  You know what they always say, if you give a headcase enough chances, he will always come through for you in the end and never, ever end up a huge disappointment. 

13.  Cincinnati Bearcats.  This was my sleeper team last year, but their inability to close in tight games killed them and they ended up in the NIT (where they lost to freaking Dayton) instead of in the Final Four.  With Lance Stephenson and Deonta Vaughn now gone, there are major holes to fill and with the incoming class very meh it's going to be up to the returnees if Cincy is going to be something other than a cellar dweller.  I watched a lot of Cincy ball last year, since I had a crush on them, and center Yancy Gates is the only one who was remotely impressive last year.  Other than that they are a bunch of solid players but no real stars, and "point guard" Cashmere Wright was awful.  Remember Kerwin Fleming?  Throw out that improbable run he had in the NIT after Monson let him play streetball and you have Wright, except he's expected to start and lead the team.  Yeah. 

14.  Providence Friars.  In reading up on the Big East, I discovered that this team was really, really bad defensively last year.  In fact, they ranked 237th in Ken Pomeroy's defensive efficiency ratings, which put them at dead last amongst all BCS conference teams.  They accomplished this by allowing opponents to shoot 52.2% on 2-pointers (327th), only turning their opponents over 18% of the time (290th), and allowing an offensive rebound on 36.6% of their opponents misses (309th).  So, to recap, the Friars almost always allowed their opponent to get a shot off, and it almost always went in, and when it didn't go in, they usually allowed them to have a second chance at it.  That is not good.  On the bright side, their offense was actually quite efficient.  This will all probably happen again. 

15.  Rutgers Scarlet Knights.  The big signing of Mike Rosario a few couple years ago didn't exactly turn the Scarlet Knights around, and now he's transferred out to Florida and the team's second best player, Greg Echenique has left as well to go play at Creighton.  New coach Mike Rice has already made some big moves on the recruiting trail and things are looking up, but this year will be tough with nobody over 6-8 on the roster.  Talented sophomore Dane Miller is back, but Rutgers will struggle to win more than a couple of games in conference play this year, the talent level just isn't there, despite an awesome home arena.  Quincy Douby is rolling over in his grave. 


16.  DePaul Blue Demons.  The team with the worst arena in college ball will once again be the worst major college team in the land, except I think this makes three years in a row.  Things might be looking up a bit with a new coach in Oliver Purnell, who has built programs up before (Dayton/Clemson), but this year is going to be another rough one.  Last year the team was built around two players (Mac Koshwal and Will Walker) who scored over half the team's points on a per game basis, and now both are gone.  With not much here and a less than imposing incoming class, it's going to be a rough year.  These guys are like the football Minnesota Gophers of college basketball.


Other Previews:
Pac-10
ACC
Big 12

NCAA Basketball Preview: The Big East

There are sixteen freaking teams in this conference.  Sixteen!!  No wonder they got eight or nine teams or whatever in the tournament last year.  That's like the Big Ten getting five or six - no big whoop.  Even so, there are a whole lot of quality teams here - the dominance of last year won't be repeated, but there are plenty of good teams in the Big East again and a final four contender or two.

1.  West Virginia.  There's no doubt Bob Huggins is leaving his stamp on this team, and not just with stellar recruiting and good overall coaching, but with lax disciplinary actions as well.  The team's two point guards, Joe Mazzulla and Darryl Bryant, were both arrested this summer (Mazzulla on domestic battery charges - his second arrest following up last year's for assaulting a police officer, Bryant for two separate hit and run incidents, including "bumping" a pedestrian), but surprise, surprise, they are both back on Huggy Bear's squad.  I'm kidding here, of course, I don't give a crap what any player does off the court and I hvae no problem with schools bending whatever rules possible to win - and win the Mountaineers should do.  Da'Sean Butler is a monster, and Devin Ebanks is going to be an absolute superstar.  Since it's Huggy, they'll probably flame out in the second round of the tournament, but they should be gold in the regular season.

2.  Villanova.  Scottie Reynolds coming back instead of staying in the NBA draft is a bit of a double-edged sword, for both the Wildcats and for me.  For Nova, it gives them back their leading scorer, but also a bit of a wildcard who can go off in a bad way, chucking shots at every opportunity and sometimes shooting them right out of a game, and makes a crowded, yet talented, backcourt even more crowded.  For me, I'm sort of happy I get another season to root against him, but on the other hand it would have been kind of fun to watch him not get drafted and end up languishing in Norwegian Basketball League or something.  Oh well.  Villanova is going to be very good again this year, and once again will be very perimeter-based with all those guards back.  Plus they add two McDonald's All-Americans, both guards, in Maalik Wayns (#26 Rivals) and Dominic Cheek (#30).  Their big concern is up front.  Losing Dante Cunningham, Dwayne Anderson, and Shane Clark takes away nearly 50% of their rebounds from last year.  Luckily, they have two other stud recruits, #10 Mouphtaou Yarou and #62 Isaiah Armwood coming in and both bring size and rebounding. 

3.  UCONN.  Lots of talent leaves, but since Calhoun got this program all straightened out again after that brief dip into crappiness in 2007, you can bet their is plenty coming back and coming in as well.  Kemba Walker and Jerome Dyson might be the best backcourt in the conference.  Walker is quick as lightning and played very well down the stretch last year after Dyson got hurt.  Speaking of Dyson, I love his game.  Assuming he's all the way back from injury, I can see him making a run at First Team All Big East.  Stanley Robinson is back as well, and he's an incredible athlete who also came into his own the second half of last year.  If someone can step in and fill the up the paint with Thabeet and Adrien gone, either one of the seldom used veterans or freshman Alex Oriakhi, the #21 prospect according to Rivals, the Huskies could have an oustide shot at another Final Four appearance.

4.  Cincinnati.  I love the Bearcats this year.  Love 'em.  Deonta Vaughn is a stone-cold killer at guard, and he's back with more help.  Yancy Gates is a big man who made the all Big East freshman team last year and is just going to get better, and there's plenty of other help here with four starters coming back, and after the fall semester will be joined in the paint by former Oklahoma State center Ibrahima Thomas, giving them another low post scorer and solid defender.  Another big help will come from freshman Cashmere Wright, a top 100 prospect last year before hurting his knee and missing the entire season.  Cincinnati is loaded with combo guard types, but Wright gives them a true point guard, which should help Vaughn score even more.  The real wild card here is SF Lance Stephenson, a top 10 recruit, a McDonald's All-American, and the all-time leading scorer in New York High School basketball history.  He's still a question mark on academics, and has been a bit of a handful in high school, getting in trouble for getting in a fight with a teammate as well as for "groping" a girl against her will in the hallway (you know she wanted it).  His issues are such that high profile schools such as UNC and Kansas pulling out of his recruitment.  If he gets eligible and can mesh with his new teammates, the sky is the limit for the Bearcats.  If he doesn't, or if he's a discipline problem, they could end up anywhere from a good team to a disaster.  At 200-1 to win the whole thing, this is a great option to put $5 down on.

5.  Georgetown.  Greg Monroe was insanely impressive last season, and despite averaging a fairly pedestrian 12.7 points and 6.5 rebounds last season he loooked ready to break out at any time.  Trust me, if you watched him play at all he looks amazing.  Already as a freshman he could handle the ball on the perimeter, and not just passing, I watched him put it on the floor and drive right passed several slower, less agile centers.  He also already possessed a handful of moves on the block and a decent mid-range game, and is a capable defender.  Last season you could see he was willing to play a more complimentary role, even though he probably shouldn't have.  If he comes into this season with a more assertive attitude, there's no way the Hoyas end up without a bid and an inexplicably horrible record like they did last season.  I'm telling you, if you have a chance to watch Monroe next season, take the time to check him out.  He'll probably be a Wolf soon.

6.  Louisville.  Losing Terrence Williams and Earl Clark is not going to be easy.  Those two did essentially everything for the Cardinals, outside of three point shooting.  They were the top 2 scorers, rebounders, and assist men for Louisville last year, and so it's understandable to expect the team to take a step back.  How far will mainly depend on Samardo Samuels, who couldn't even stop Travis Busch.  Last year Samuels was the third option and played well, but this season he will need to become the man.  Another important player, and massive head-scratcher, is point guard Edgar Sosa.  As a freshman, he played brilliantly at times, put up very good numbers for a first year player, and looked like he was going to be the next "big-time PG from New York."  Instead, he's taken a step backward after a step backward, and now goes into his senior year with just one more chance to try to recapture whatever it is he lost from his debut season.  If he can't, freshman Peyton Siva is now on board, and was ranked #39 on the Rivals 150.  He could easily end up taking Sosa's job - if Rick Pitino manages to stop banging broads long enough to pay attention. 


7.  Syracuse.  Every where I turn it seems like there's a new article about how Iowa State transfer Wesley Johnson is like, the greatest transfer of all-time and he's going to carry the Orange and I don't get.  Don't get me wrong, he's a good player and all (averaged 12 points and 4 rebounds his last year at ISU), but he's no savior.  He wasn't highly recruited out of high school, and although he burst on the scene his freshman year he regressed quite a bit in year two.  If Syracuse wasn't losing Paul Harris (one of my favorites the last few years), criminal Eric Devendorf, and Jonny Flynn, he might be the missing piece that vaults them to the top - but those guys are all gone.  There is still some quality talent here, and I love watching Arinze Onuaku, who really doesn't mess around and try to get all fancy.  He just gets the ball, knocks defenders over, and then dunks on their stupid heads.  The Cuse should be good again, assuming they find some guard play somewhere, but let's calm down a wee tad on Wesley.

8.  Notre Dame.  Harangody is back - yes again - which makes the Irish dangerous in any given game, but the majority of his supporting cast is gone, and I'm not sure if that's good or bad after last year's total flame out.  None of the incoming recruits are particularly impressive, with apologies to Minnesota's own Mike Broghammer, so it's going to fall on returning veterans to get the Irish back to the NCAA Tournament.  They do have their starting point guard back in little Tory Jackson.  He's very hard to keep out of the paint, but is not a good outside shooter and, although he's improved his free-throw shooting, can be a liability at the end of games.  Two transfers were supposed to shore up the team this season, Ben Hansbrough from Mississippi State and Scott Martin from Purdue.  Hansbrough will be key if they want to get to the NCAAs, but Martin got hurt and is going to miss the whole season. 


9.  Seton Hall.  This is a really interesting team, and on paper they have a chance to be much better than 9th.  It starts with their returning star, shooting guard Jeremy Hazell.  He's a scoring machine who can get hot at a moment's notice, and averaged 22.7 points per game last season, second in the Big East, despite shooting just 42%.  Less might be more here, and he should have more help this season, beyond even the two other returning double digit scorers returning to the Pirates in the form of a couple of interesting transfers, one inside and one outside.  The perimeter guy is Keon Lawrence, who comes to the Hall via Missouri.  Lawrence is an excellent scorer (he put up 9.7 and 11.0 ppg in his two years at Mizzou) who will help take some pressure off of Hazell, and is talented enough to shoulder the scoring load some nights (he put up 25 against Kansas one year).  Power Forward Herb Pope, the other transfer - this time from New Mexico State, might be even more important since the Pirates a bit thin on the inside.  Pope was a high school superstar - ranked #31 by Rivals and offered by Texas, Pitt, and Memphis - and averaged 11 points and 7 rebounds per game in his one season in the desert.  If everything and everyone pulls together and meshes well, an NCAA Tournament bid isn't out of the question.

10.  Pitt.  Thank god Pitt is finally going to take a step back this year, I've been getting more tired of that program than I can possibly express in words.  They lose pretty much everybody, which is good news for me because rotund irritant Levance Fields is finally gone, but is bad for Pitt.  Their leading returning scorer, and only 20+ minute guy who is coming back, Jermaine Dixon, is more of a defensive specialist than any kind of offensive threat.  Of course, Jamie Dixon couldn't just relax for a little bit, and he is bringing in a very good recruiting class - including Rivals #14 prospect Dante Taylor, who has a good chance to win Big East ROY - so this break from having Pitt up in your face every time you turn on ESPN will be short-lived.  Enjoy it folks, I know I will.   

11.  Rutgers.  I always find myself rooting for Rutgers and I think there are two reasons.  The first, is that I liked watching Quincy "rolling a" Douby and that other guy whose name I can't remember right now when they were there and the Scarlet Knights were actually good.  The second is that they have a great home court advantage when they are good, and they call the place the RAC which is pronounced like "rack", of which I am a big fan.  So maybe I'm overrating them a tad but I think Rutgers could sneak up on a few people this season, especially at home.  The program's first McDonald's All-American, Mike Rosario, paid immediate dividends, leading the team in scoring, but something more needs to happen if this is Rutgers return to prominence.  They add a pretty decent batch of newcomers, which includes top 100 recruit SF Dane Miller, top 40 JuCo James Beatty - who will probably start at PG from day one, and a small forward transfer from Florida in Jonathan Mitchell, a top 100 recruit in 2006 and a bit player on Florida's second National Championship team.  In a down Big East, maybe this is their year.

12.  Marquette.  Jerel McNeal, Dominic James, and Wes Matthews were without question on of the best three-man backcourts I have ever seen, and maybe the best since Lethal Weapon 3 (the aesome Georgia Tech one, not the craptacualrly overrated South Carolina nickname stealing one).  But yeah, those guys are gone.  Swingman Lazar Haywood is back at least, and despite being in the guards shadow a bit he's developed into an outstanding player - did you know that other than Luke Harangody, Haywood was the only Big East player to rank in the top 10 in both scoring and rebounding last season?  I bet you had no idea he was that good, did you?  There's some nice players coming in this year's recruiting class, with, no surprise, an emphasis on the perimeter, including Rivals #47 Jeronne Maymon, who the Gophers were looking at for a time, but unless Hayward has a super human year, I don't think we'll see the Golden Eagles back in the NCAA tournament.


13.  St. Johns.  The Redmen or Red Storm or Reds or whatever they are have an interesting group of talent this year - they should be deep, but I just don't know if they'll be good.  They lose nobody off of their 6-12 Big East team from last year, and have plenty of balance with five players who scored between 9 and 15 points per game - although Anthony Mason only played 3 games last year.  Mason is still hurt, and will be out 4-6 weeks, so it will be interesting to see what happens when he tries to return as lead dog and reintegrate with his teammates who will have played over a season's worth of games without him.   

14. South Florida.  Did you know that South Florida had one of the best all-around players in the Big East?  Me neither, but they do and he's only a junior.  Dominique Jones, a 6-4 guard out of Florida, was a bit underrated coming out of high school (3 stars, unranked, mid-major type offers), but he's certainly blossomed with the Bulls.  He finished 9th in the conference in scoring (18.1 ppg), was 27th in rebounding (5.6 rpg), and was 12th in assists at 3.9 per game, and also led the Bulls in steals and was second in blocks while scoring in double figures in 55 of his 62 career games.  Yeah, he's good.  There's not a ton of help around him, but the best recruiting class the Bulls have had in a long time is coming in this year, and two transfers - PG Anthony Crater from Ohio State and C Jarrid Famous from a JuCo - bring hope, if nothing else.  Crater is especially important because Jones won't have to worry about playing the point, and that should lead to a huge year.


15. Providence.  I liked the Friars last year quite a bit, but they could never quite rise above "pesky" and fell just short of gaining an NCAA bid.  Now five of the top seven guys are gone, and although Sharaud Curry and Marshon Brooks are good players, replacing two thirds of the team's scoring from last season is no easy feat, and a big burden will fall on a huge group of newcomers.  The closest thing to a standout in the group is PG Johnnie Lacy (#143 according to Rivals), whose name you might remember because the Gophers had given him a scholarship offer.  Unless a couple of juco guys work out really well, it will probably be a long year for the Friars, but with a good class this year and an even better one already in the works for next year, things should turn around, unlike

16.  DePaul.  The worst arena in the country hosts what might be, once again, the worst major conference team in the country.  Seems fitting.  The Blue Demons didn't win a single conference game (until a shocker of a win in the Big East tournament), and now see their best player leave for the NBA draft (note:  he didn't get drafted).  There's some talent here, Mac Koshwal is a great all around player and Will "Wheel" Walker is a good scorer, but that's about it.  Krys Faber, who chose DePaul over Minnesota, is still here as well, and is probably going to be questioning his decision when he's watching the Gophers in the tournament from his dorm room, because I don't think DePaul even has as much as a CBI bid in them.



Other Previews
Conference USA
Atlantic 10 
Mountain West 
Atlantic Coast 
Big Twelve

Weekend Review

WHO WAS AWESOME

1. Providence. I mentioned this previously, but the Friars win over Pitt on Tuesday was a huge lift to the Friars’ postseason chances. They still have a lot of work to do, but that was a step in the right direction. They also picked up a huge win at Rutgers on Saturday – not hard as in Rutgers is any good, they aren’t, but good to go on the road at a traditionally tough place to play and not show any letdown, going in and winning 73-66. They are doing it with defense, forcing both Pitt and Rutgers into 16 turnovers, a very good sign. Plenty of work left to do, and they close out the season on the road against a surprisingly very good Villanova team (despite Scotty Reynolds) in a game they probably have to win to have any hope. But if the Friars can pull that upset off and win a game in the Big East tournament, I don’t see any way they don’t make it.

2. BYU. Another team looking for a bid, the Cougars had a huge week coming up with wins over fellow Mountain West contenders San Diego State 69-59 and Utah 63-50. The win over the league leading Utes is huge, giving BYU its third victory over an RPI Top 50 opponent. With games at Wyoming and at home versus Air Force remaining, BYU should end up finishing 12-4 and second in the Mountain West. The real question is will that be enough? The computer numbers are pretty good, but they are just 3-5 against RPI Top 50 teams, which looks bad when compared to fellow conference bubble team UNLV who is 5-2. There isn’t much here outside the conference, so BYU better get to at least the MWC tournament finals, although the RPI ranking of #21 will certainly help.

3. Oklahoma State. Here’s a weird team that has come out of nowhere to suddenly be included in the bubble conversation, and they just got a signature win they badly needed by beating Texas 68-59 on Saturday, running their winning streak to five straight and pushing their conference record to 8-6, good enough for fourth in the Big 12. A pretty aggressive non-conference schedule and a slow start had them off the radar, but with the recent winning streak that same aggressive schedule has them with some pretty good numbers (#30 RPI, #11 SOS). They haven’t fared well against top teams, going just 3-8 vs. RPI Top 50 and 7-9 vs. The Top 100, but if they can split the last two (home vs. Kansas State, @ Oklahoma) that would put them at 20-10, 9-7 in conference. Take that, along with the good computer numbers and strong finish, and the Cowboys are looking pretty good for a bid.

4. Kansas. They certainly don’t need any help to get in the tournament, but suddenly a “depleted” Kansas team is playing for a possible two seed and took a good step in the right direction this week. They are 13-1 in the Big 12, and just beat the only other two ranked teams in the conference this week, taking down a Blake Griffin-less Oklahoma on the road 87-78 and followed it up by whooping #11 Missouri 90-65 in Lawrence. You knew Sherron Collins would be a stud this year, but the biggest reason for the team’s success despite losing so much talent after last year’s Championship has been Cole Aldrich – and yes, it pains me greatly to say that. After minimal playing time last year, he’s jumped to 30 minutes, 15 points, and 10 rebounds per game, put up 19 and 14 against Missouri, and is projected to be a top five NBA after next season by NBAdraft.net There are a bunch of newcomers who are also helping out, but Cole is definitely the biggest reason the Jayhawks are an unexpected Final Four contender.

5. Geoff Ogilvy. Ogilvy didn’t just win the Accenture Match Play Championship, he dominated it. In a week when Tiger Woods was the main story, Ogilvy moved passed him into first place on the all-time Accenture winning percentage, going 6-0 to push his record to 17-2 overall, a .895 winning percentage – ahead of Woods who is 32-7, .821. Ogilvy beat Paul Casey in the championship 4 & 3, following a run that saw him beat the gay Stewart Cink, teen phenom Rory McIlroy, Dr. Acula’s boyfriend Camilo Villegas, the Chinese Cowboy Shingo Katayama, and Kevin Sutherland. Ogilvy shot a combined 25 under in his last 66 holes (3 matches worth) and never trailed against any of his last three opponents. Ogilvy tends to play better in big events, this is his second time winning the Accenture, winning in 2006 as well as winning the US Open that year. He’s definitely one to watch in the majors this season.


WHO SUCKED


1. Siena. Well, the good ole DWG Jinx strikes again. This time hitting the MAAC leading Saints who, after last weekend’s win over Northern Iowa in Bracket Busters, looked to have a chance, however slim, at an at-large NCAA bid if they didn’t win their conference tournament. You can pretty much forget it now, as Niagara’s Purple Eagles knocked off Siena on Friday, 100-85. The Saints played a tough schedule, but were unable to grab a signature win, with their best win on the season coming against the previously mentioned Purple Eagles. Unfortunately, letting Niagara shoot 52% from the floor was too much to overcome, and the talented, and dangerous, Saints will have to win the conference tournament in order to get a chance to repeat their success from last season.

2. Utah State. The Aggies were in a similar situation as Siena, most likely needing to win their conference tournament to get in, but having an outside shot at an at-large. And, just like Siena, those hopes are now over with their loss at Nevada on Thursday night. It’s just the Aggies second WAC loss, the other being at Boise State, and losing on the road to the #2 and #4 teams in your conference isn’t anything to be ashamed of, but when your at-large resume contains only one win over a RPI top 50 opponent and your strength of schedule is 133, you can’t really afford any losses. So Utah State will now need to win the WAC tournament, and, bad news Aggies’ fans, it’s held in Reno on Nevada’s home floor. Ruh roh.

3. Kentucky. Another team that really hurt itself, the Wildcats haven’t completely locked themselves out of at-large consideration, but it’s really, really close. They completely bombed this week, going into South Carolina and getting steamrolled 77-59 and then following that up on Saturday by dropping a home game to LSU 73-70. Kentucky has been done in by poor perimeter shooting and sloppy ballhandling, as they shot just 7-26 from three in the two games and turned it over 20 and 15 times – trends that need to stop if they have any chance of making the tournament. They have Georgia at home in an easy win, and then close out the regular season by traveling to Florida in what will be a must win. If they can’t win both of their remaining games, the Cats might need to win the SEC tournament to get in.

4. Arizona. Another Wildcat team that didn’t do themselves any favors, Arizona also went 0-2 this week in getting swept by the Washington schools. This was following up a loss to Arizona State, and their safe NCAA hopes are suddenly looking a little more precarious. Losing on the road to a very good Washington team is nothing to be ashamed of, but they needed to win at Wash State, and unfortunately didn’t even bother to show up, getting blown out 69-53. The Wildcats have two home games to close out the season, playing Stanford and Cal this week, and probably need to win both or head into the Pac 10 tournament very nervously. Arizona has some very good scorers in Wise, Budinger, and Jordan Hill, but they need to fix their rebounding issues. Both Washington schools outrebounded them by 9 in their most recent games, and it’s been a season long issue with Arizona being one of the worst in the country in keeping team’s off their offensive boards. Couple that with their inability to turn other teams over, and they are giving up a boatload of shots every game.

5. Marquette. They certainly aren’t in any danger of not making the tournament at 12-4 in the Big East, and actually their 0-2 week wouldn’t normally land them in the WHO SUCKED column since those two losses were at Louisville and versus UCONN. The reason they are here is because they lost their senior leader, starting point guard, and top four conference assist man Dominic James for the season thanks to a broken foot suffered against UCONN. This takes the Golden Eagles from a sleeper final four contender to a sweet 16 max upside type team. They still have their top 3 scorers, and Jerel McNeal and Wes Mathews are still one of the top guard tandems in the country, but it will be very difficult to replace James. Even though they managed to hang tough with Louisville yesterday, losing just 62-58, but they also managed to scrounge up a total of just seven assists in the whole game, where James averaged five per contest by himself.

Some Things

A few things from last night:

Ohio State 73, Penn State 59. This doesn’t quite kill PSU’s NCAA hopes, but they are in some serious trouble now. This one hurts a bit extra because the Nittany Lions had a lead in the second half, but the Buckeyes scored 25 of the game’s last 35 points. Jeremie Simmons came up huge for Ohio State, scoring 17 points and hitting four threes on a night where Evan Turner scored just six points and inexplicably took just four shots. Also of note: PJ Hill is still a douche.

Providence 81, Pitt 73. In a win bigger than Kim Kardashian’s ass, the Friars knocked off #1 Pitt in Providence to give their NCAA hopes a huge boost, nearly as huge as Kim Kardashian’s ass. An absolute must win for Providence to keep their hopes alive, and they got it. The Friars instantly go from the wrong side of the bubble to right smack dab in the middle of it. With two road games left, the Friars need to win at Rutgers on Sunday or the final Big East game at Villanova becomes another must win.

Stephon Marbury will finally have to play for pay. Point guard and noted glory hog retard Marbury was cut by the Knicks yesterday, and is reportedly on his way to a no-doubt tearful reunion with KG on the Celtics. Marbury hasn’t played in a game since January 11, 2008, but was still collecting his $20 million a season salary to not to anything much at all. He agreed to a buyout with the Knicks and will reportedly sign with the Celtics for the league minimum, since he clearly doesn’t need any more money unless he spends it like Kenny Anderson. Verdict: Pretty much a lose/lose here. Marbury will probably cry about not being the #1 option on the Celts after a week, and now he has to actually do some work to get paid a lot less. I don’t know about you, but sitting around on the couch playing x-box, drinking forties and smoking the dope all while getting paid $20 mil a year sounds pretty good to me.

Erik Bedard is getting better. The Mariners’ Bedard, recovering from shoulder surgery, pitched to live batters in Spring Training yesterday, the first time since the surgery to remove cysts and tissue in his pitching shoulder. I’m sure the Mariners are a bit miffed and all, since they gave a boatload of prospects to get him from the Orioles last year, but I’d start him against dead batters instead. Even Matt Guerrier can get out most dead batters (ERA just 3.50 vs. Zombies). Seriously though Seattle fans, at least you got Bedard instead of Kris Benson and his highly irritating, though hot, gloryhog on a Marbury-level former stripper of a wife Anna (pictured above).

Marvin Harrison has officially been released. It will be interesting to see what happens. The Colts will be fine, Gonzalez looks like the real deal and with the weapons they have this wasn’t a tough call once he wouldn’t restructure. As for Marvin, one possible landing spot would be Philly, which is funny because my junior year of college I played a dynasty on Madden and drafted a receiver named Pete Harrison out of Syracuse and pretended he was Marvin’s brother and he was awesome. I’m like some kind of Nostradamus..

LSU continued to be the dominant power of the SEC. The Tigers knocked off the Gators, 81-75. It brings the Tigers to 12-1 in the conference, and is their ninth straight win. LSU really isn't a great team, but the SEC is really down this year, which seems bizarre considering they might have been the best conference for a stretch not too long ago, but now they are this year's version of the Big Ten.

Last but not least, Spring Training games start today! The Twins take on the Red Sox at 6:05 tonight. You know what they say, when your bench players take on another team's bench players in the Spring Training opener, you can pretty much see how the season will play out.

Weekend Review

Weird week. Hasheem Thabeet had a triple double and DeJuan Blair went for a rare 20/20. Tennessee bounced back to grab a win they desperately needed while Michigan and Georgetown continue to suck. LSU is suddenly looking like they might be the class of the SEC while Baylor is suddenly looking irrelevant. Michigan State lost again at home, this time to a Penn State team that’s starting to make some NCAA tournament noise. I rented season one of 30 Rock after never having seen it, and it is completely brilliant. And it’s basically impossible to place Wake Forest this week, since the win over #1 Duke would put them in the Awesome category, but the Saturday loss to Georgia Tech, giving the Jackets their first ACC victory, definitely puts them in the sucks category. So we’ll just call it neutral.


WHO WAS AWESOME

1. Marquette. Holy crap are these guys good. This week the Golden Eagles again went 2-0, taking down two sinking ships in Georgetown and Notre Dame, and looked damn good doing it, beating the Irish on the road and taking down G-Town despite allowing them to shoot 56% by forcing 17 turnovers and outrebounding the Hoyas 31-26 despite being undersized. It doesn’t much matter if you’re undersized when you have three guys who can go for 20 at any time, which Lazar Haywood, Jerel McNeal, and Wes Matthews all did against the Hoyas. Add in one of the top point guards in the country in Dominic James, and these guys have some serious weapons, the biggest reason why they now 8-0 in the Big East. Their biggest hurdle, now that they’ve shown they can handle bigger opponents, is their lack of depth. They count on those four listed above to play over 30 minutes a game, with nobody else playing more than 20. Against the Hoyas, the big four accounted for all but 12 of the team’s 94 points. Even if nobody else steps up in the tourney, they can go a long way, but if somebody does, look the hell out.

2. Denis Clemente. I know you’ve never heard of him, but luckily for you I know who he is and he was awesome on Saturday against Texas, leading Kansas State to an improbable 85-81 victory in OT – in Texas no less. Clemente played for Miami (FL) right out of high school for two seasons before transferring to K-State to play for Bob Huggins – Surprise! Now Clemente is stuck on a crappy K-State team, but the win over the Longhorns was huge and he led the way scoring a ridiculous 44 points on 13-25 shooting (including 6-6 from three) and 12-12 from the line, helping overcome a horrid statline from a guy I used to like, KSU’s point guard Jake Pullen who shot 1-13 and topped it off with 7 turnovers. The 44 point explosion comes out of nowhere for Clemente, whose career high before Saturday was 24 points, and he had only reached 20 three times in his 2+ year college career. More evidence of the unexpectedocity of this? He had never before had double-digit field goal makes (he had 13 on Sat.) and had only taken as many as 20 shots once (25). He set career highs for free throws made and attempted (12-12), and three pointers made with six. Despite being just a career 32% three point shooter he made all six of is attempts on Saturday, and went 12-12 from the line despite his season average of just 2 attempts per game. Just a stunning display all around. This would be like Damian Johnson scoring 40 – not just because of the points, but because of the attempts as well. Very bizarro-world.

3. Providence. Yes, the Friars got blown out of the water by UCONN on Saturday, but this week has to be considered a success for Providence. At the beginning of the week, they were 5-2 in the Big East but were generally considered a fraud. The five Big East wins were against the dregs of the conference: DePaul, St Johns, Seton Hall, and Cincinnati twice. There was nothing in the non-conference profile to suggest this was a good team, their best win being over a now-looking terrible Rhode Island team, and an 0-3 record against good teams (Baylor, Boston College, and St. Mary’s). This week was a big one, with Syracuse coming to Providence and then the trip to UCONN, it would be the opportunity for the Friars to prove themselves, and they did, winning over Syracuse earlier in the week 100-94 and hanging with UCONN for a half (34-38). With an incredibly balanced attack (7 players average between 9.2 and 13.4 points) and double-double machine Geoff McDermott on board (five this year, third in his career amongst active Big East players) the Friars look like they might be dancing. They still get to play Rutgers twice and South Florida once, if they can win those three and steal another one, could the committee really keep a 10-8 Big East team at home?

4. Utah State. Losing a guy like Jaycee Carroll, who led the team in scoring the previous two seasons and was 2nd the two before that, not to mention playing over 30 minutes a game all four years, would usually leave a team with a tough road ahead, but not for the Aggies, who are a surprising 9-0 in the WAC right now. After beating top WAC competition Nevada this week, then following it up with a win at Fresno State, the Aggies are again the class of the WAC, and may be creeping on into at-large consideration if they fall in the WAC tournament. Gary Wilkinson and Tai Wesley have both improved from last year, and give Utah State a very solid front line. I also may be attending this Saturday's Utah State v. La Tech game, so that makes them extra awesome.

5. The Super Bowl. Bets aside, all I really wanted was a good, entertaining game and we certainly got that. Congrats to the Steelers and Mike Tomlin on the win, and especially to Santonio Holmes for that great, great catch to win the game. Entertaining to the last, especially when Theory needed the half to end on 4, and the Cards had first and goal looking to win him the money and then this happened, "NO! No!........Go! Go!" And to all you people who laugh way too hard at the commercials, I'm going to kill every single one of you. RELAX.


WHO SUCKED

1. Phil Mickelson. Since our golf guy seemingly has been chased away from this site, I guess it falls on me to give the golf news, and Mr. Mickelson certainly fits in the Sucked column. Making his 2009 debut this week at the FBR Open, Phil didn’t even make it to the weekend, shooting a 76 and a 73 and missing the cut by seven shots at +7 en route to finishing in 121st place. Surprising as it is that Phil missed a cut, the fact that it comes at the FBR is extra weird. The tournament is played at the TPC of Scottsdale, which is Phil’s home course after coming out of Arizona State, and he is the leading money-winner in the tournament’s history, and finished in second place last year. Then again, he’s now missed the cut here two out of the last three years, so perhaps whatever magic this course held for him has been used up.

2. Notre Dame. It’s starting to seem a bit redundant putting the Irish here week after week, but they just keep earning it. This week they went 0-2 again, losing a backbreaker to at home to Marquette and on the road against Pitt. The loss against Marquette isn’t exactly shameful, the Eagles are undefeated in league play and are ranked #8 in the country, but when you’re reeling and in the midst of a three game losing streak, you need to hold serve at home if you consider yourself the class of the conference. Similarly, the loss at Pitt normally wouldn’t even warrant a mention, but the Irish came out of halftime with a six point lead, then turned the ball over on their first three possessions, gave up a layup on a three pointer when McAlarney refused to even make an attempt to get through a screen to guard Fields, and before you could blink the Panthers had scored the first ten points of the half and cruised to a 93-80 victory and dropping Notre Dame to a suddenly desperate 3-6 in conference play. Things don’t get easier, as their next three games are at Cincinnati, at UCLA, and then home against Louisville. It opens up a bit after that, with four straight games against unranked teams, but things are looking tough. The non-conference results aren’t that special, but they do have a win over Texas. Suddenly the Irish are scrambling to get in the tournament, rather than playing for a high seed.

3. Kentucky. Coming into the week the Wildcats were ranked #24, were sitting at 5-0 in the SEC, and at 16-4 confidence was high. Suddenly, things aren’t so rosy, as UK went 0-2 this week, losing on the road at Ole Miss (1-4 previously in the SEC) and on Saturday at home to the suddenly streaking South Carolina. Against the Rebels Kentucky couldn’t overcome poor shooting by Jodie Meeks, who was just 4-15 from the floor and a 42-32 rebounding deficit, despite a great game by the suddenly all but forgotten Patrick Patterson, who put up 24 and 7 rebs. Then against the Gamecocks Patterson had another monster game (28 and 8), and the team as a whole shot 51%, but a poor shooting game once again from Meeks (5-12) and 19 second half points for USC’s Devan Downey led to the Wildcats dropping a winnable game at home on a last second Downey jumper. Is this just a minor hiccup for UK in an otherwise stellar season, or are teams figuring out if you can control Meeks, you can win the game?

4. Arizona State. The Sun Devils looked to be possibly be the class of the Pac 10, perhaps above even UCLA, with a 5-2 conference record, a win over UCLA at Pauley, and a national ranking of 14; then this week happened. Welcoming the Washington schools into town, ASU should have come out with a split and probably a sweep, but instead ended up getting swept themselves. The loss to Washington State comes as the bigger shock, since the Cougars have just three wins in the conference, against Stanford and the two shitty Oregon schools. The loss to Washington isn’t nearly as big a shock, since the Huskies are one of the top teams in the conference, but since the WSU game came first the Sun Devils knew they needed this one. Worried? Nope, any team with James Harden and Jeff Pendergraph is still in good shape, but I wouldn’t have thought they’d drop an entire weekend to the Washington teams. Side note: Mychal’s son Klay Thompson is looking pretty damn good, putting up a career high 28 against Arizona State (which he, of course, then followed up with 8 points on 3-13 vs. Arizona)

5. Wisconsin. I’ve sort of been trying to keep from putting the Badgers here, due to my own bias, but at this point I think it’s pretty much impossible to avoid after Bucky lost to Northwestern on Saturday to run their losing streak to six straight games and pretty much wipe out their 3-0 start as well as any hope to get to the NCAA tournament. Like I called, the Badgers are at the bottom of the Big Ten (ninth to be exact) sitting at 3-6 and ahead of just Iowa and Indiana. Their inability to win on the road (1-4 in the Big Ten, 2-6 overall) and loss of home invincibility (2-2 in the conference at Kohl) have mainly come about by a shocking loss of defensive toughness and/or ability. This season, the Badgers rank 107th in the country in defensive efficiency (including 309th in turning the opponent over), putting them 8th in the Big Ten in that category. This follows seasons where they ranked 2nd and 6th in D-efficiency. And they haven’t just fallen off, they’re overall terrible. Northwestern shot 57% against them and earlier in the week Purdue nearly broke 60% (59.5%) and Illinois shot 50% the week before that. As a matter a fact, the Badgers have only held two of their nine Big Ten opponents to under 40% shooting, and none since January 7th. For Wisconsin, a team where if you broke 40% shooting the last several years you had a pretty good night. This team has now become total garbage, and is completely and totally unsalvageable. The should probably disband the team, and probably the entire university. Then go ahead and put walls around the state, so that none of the morons from the state can ever escape – or put them on an island like in that movie with Ray Liotta.