Tournament Season now Hits the Big Guys

Ok I missed the Monday tournaments.  That's okay though, because I'm going to cover them today along with Tuesday's kick-offs which is when some of the big dogs come out to play.  I know many of you were lost on Monday night, wondering about the MAC and the MEAC and for that I apologize, but like a beacon in the dark I am here to walk you through.

Lots of stuff happened this weekend, including Kentucky, Baylor, and Boise got the big wins they needed while Iowa State, Ole Miss, and Cincy avoided what would have been crushing losses.  Belmont made there be one less bubble team by winning the autobid in the OVC (Davidson won the SoCon's autobid last night but they probably weren't getting an at-large in any case), and Oklahoma (probably still in), Colorado (probably still in), and Louisiana Tech (needs autobid now) picked up ugly losses along with the Gophers.

What does this all mean?  Well, along with the pairings coming out and showing the Gophers taking on Illinois in the opening round of the Big Ten Tournament it means the Gophers are in no matter what.  Illinois's RPI is 42, which means a loss is just fine and a win would be a very good win.  With most projectionists putting the Gophers in the 8-10 range there's no way a good loss knocks them out.  So congratulations?

Ideally the Gophers would beat Illinois and Indiana and jump up to a six seed to avoid facing a 1 or 2 in a quasi-home game situation, but to be honest I'm just hoping they don't embarrass themselves again.  It's good to have goals.  On to the tournaments!

MID-AMERICAN CONFERENCE
For most of the season Akron was a fringe-y bubble team.  They had dominated the MAC, going 13-0 with just four out-of-conference losses (3 in overtime) marring an otherwise perfect record - losses to Oklahoma State, Detroit, and Creighton are acceptable, losing to Coastal Carolina is not.  Unfortunately a non-conference slate then with only a win over Middle Tennessee and a whole slew of cupcakes kept them from serious at-large consideration, and a loss to Buffalo last Saturday (RPI #226), the suspension of starting point guard and leading assist man Alex Abreu for possession of five pounds of pot, and a follow up loss to Kent State (RPI #146) have the Zips not only on the outside looking in of an at-large bid, but no longer the favorite in this tournament.  
FAVORITE:  Ohio.  With Akron's issues with Smokey the Bobcats, who despite finishing out MAC play at 14-2 would have to describe this season as disappointing.  This is an exciting team with a kick-ass point guard in D.J. Cooper (and the money he took) who will look for answers but that ain't fun so he'll get in the pit and try to love someone.  Seriously though this is basically the same team who beat Georgetown in the tournament two years ago and made the Sweet 16 last season, they just whiffed on every opportunity to get a good win and had a super shitty schedule, thus win or in.  Dangerous team.  I hope they win.   
SLEEPER:  Eastern Michigan.  Kent State probably has a better chance of winning but I wouldn't really consider them a sleeper the way EMU is.  They 7 seed, the Eagles interest me because they are the top MAC team in 3-point defense, shot blocking, and stealing the ball.  They're a pretty dynamic defensive team so you never know.  They're also horrific offensively so you kind of do.
W's PICK:  Ohio.  Bawitdaba da bang a dang diggy diggy diggy said the boogy said up jump the boogy.

MID-EASTERN ATLANTIC CONFERENCE
Let's just get this out of the way:  the MEAC is terrible, and they're terrible every year.  Outside of the SWAC there's no other conference more guaranteed to end up in the play-in game.  On one of the old college basketball games on playstation I used to have you had an option to to start from a bottom of the barrel program and try to work your way up by winning enough games - of the 10 options at least five of them were MEAC schools and it might have been more.  That being said, of the six #15 seeds to knock off a #2 in round 1 two of them (Coppin State and Norfolk State) were MEAC schools. So I guess that's something.
FAVORITE: Norfolk State.  Despite losing their top two scorers from last year's Missouri beating squad, the Spartans crushed the MEAC going 16-0.  For some reason I now have a very uneasy feeling that if Tubby is let go by the Gophers Norfolk's State guy is going to come up far too often for my tastes.
SLEEPER:  North Carolina Central.  Interesting that Norfolk went 16-0, UNCC went 15-1, and they never played each other.  They also don't have a single win between the two that remotely resembles a quality victory, but that's far less surprising.  UNCC could be tricky because they are the top ranked defense in the conference in almost every single advanced metric.  Of the eight main ones the Eagles (what's with all the Eagles, man?) rank 1st in six of them.  Seems relevant.  
W's PICK:  Norfolk State.  I've spent too much time on this conference as is, so I'll just take the team that's been there before and has the #1 seed.  Why complicate things?

WESTERN ATHLETIC CONFERENCE
If you remember when I wrote about the Sun Belt (this would make you kind of a weirdo) I said I was rooting so hard for Middle Tennessee because I wasn't sure they'd get an at-large if they lost and I really wanted to see them in the tournament (they lost in the semis and it's looking dicey).   This is relevant because before last week Louisiana Tech looked a lot like Middle Tennessee but less fancy.  They were 16-0 in the conference and 26-3 overall, and even if the computer numbers weren't in their favor they were going to be tough to ignore if they ran the table and then fell in the WAC Tournament Final.  Luckily for the seeding committee they decided to go in the tank and got crushed by both New Mexico State (by 18) and Denver (by 24) and that is that.
FAVORITE:  Denver.  Although La Tech retained the #1 seed despite that late swoon, Vegas recognizes them for the pretender they were and installed Denver as the favorite.  With good reason, considering the Pioneers rank tops in the conference in both offensive and defensive efficiency.  It could all be fraudulent since Denver is another team that fits the Wisconsin/Virginia mold, but they're an interesting team who would absolutely have a chance to bore a team into a loss if they make the NCAAs.
SLEEPER: Utah State.  I'm a huge fan of the Aggies, as you would know if you paid more attention to me you asshole, and this is a bit of an off year for them since they usually dominate these WAC dorks. You can't really count out a Stew Morrill led USU team, can you?  Other than this year, I mean.
W's PICK:  Louisiana Tech.  Yes, the Bulldogs only played one non-shitty team in non-conference and lost to Texas A&M by 12.  Yes, they somehow lost to McNeese State and Northwestern State.  Yes, when they had a bye mid-week late in the season they scheduled Central Baptist College and won by 70 rather than having a decent team on the docket.  Maybe, I'm starting to rethink this pick but it's too late to go back now.

BIG EAST CONFERENCE
And here we go.  Big time conferences get rolling starting with the old Big East in it's last hurrah.  Plenty still to play for, as Georgetown has as shot at a #1 while Louisville could possibly get it as well depending on what happens around the country.  Syracuse is looking to find whatever it seems to have lost and Marquette wants to show it's more than just a home court bully, while both Villanova and Cincinnati are looking to shore up their at-large bids.
FAVORITE:  Georgetown.  The Hoyas, Louisville, and Marquette tied a top the conference at 14-4 with G-Town getting the favorable draw thanks to tie-breakers.  They should also be considered the favorite because they are also coming in hot.  The Hoya defense is coming on strong (the last team to score 70+ in non-overtime against the Hoyas was Pitt on January 8th)  and Otto Porter is starting to give off a big John Wallace type vibe where I can see him putting the team's offense on his back and the Hoyas riding the defense deep into the tourney.  I'm having a hell of a time trying to convince myself not to put them in the Final Four.
SLEEPER:  Providence.  They're a bit of a deep sleeper what with the 9 seed and all, but with so many good teams to find a true sleeper can be a little bit tougher in a conference like this.  The Friars boast the league's leading scorer in Bryce Cotton and after a rough start to the season that included losses to Penn State, Brown, and DePaul they've started to really come together.  Providence has won seven of its last nine with the only losses to Syracuse and UCONN on the road.  Winning four games is probably a bit much but, you know, it's happened before.    
W's PICK:  Louisville.  The number one defensive team in the country who both causes a ton of turnovers and holds opponents to terrible shooting percentages.  Their record this year is 26-5, and the five losses are to potential number 1 seed Duke by 5 (neutral site), by 2 to Syracuse when they were still good, by 9 at Villanova when the Wildcats were on that tear where they also beat Cuse, at potential #1 seed Georgetown by 2, and at Notre Dame in five Overtimes.  There may be more exciting teams and more upside-y teams, but the absolute safest bet, regardless of 1 or 2 seed, to get to the Final Four this year is the Cardinals.

MOUNTAIN WEST CONFERENCE
The conference that has risen the most in national rankings over the last few years, the MWC actually ranks third at kenpom behind the Big Ten and Big East.  As good as it is, however, there's not really much to play for here.  New Mexico, UNLV, Colorado State, and San Diego State are already locked in, and Boise State, by way of wins over SDSU and CSU in the last week and a half is probably in as well, and with an opening round match-up against the Aztecs again they can't hurt themselves.
FAVORITE:  New Mexico.  Believe it or not this a damn good league, and the Lobos going 13-3 in league play is damn impressive.  There are nine teams in this league and five of them rank in the top 50 (kenpom) with two more in the top 100.  The Lobos not only rolled the league, but also picked up wins over Davidson, UCONN, Valpo, and Cincy this year.  You're going to be tempted to underrate New Mexico when you fill out your bracket, but I'd disrecommend that.  
SLEEPER: Air Force.  It's tough to find a sleeper in a league where the top 5 teams are awesome and the bottom two suck (well, Wyoming has sucked after a great start after kicking leading scorer Luke Martinez off the team for something as innocent as getting a 15-yard running start before kicking an unconscious person in the head in a bar fight), but Air Force fits the bill well enough.  They play in the Wisconsin/Virginia style of slow but efficient play and that can always fuck people up and they've beaten four out of the five top teams in the MWC this year.  They've also been terrible outside Colorado Springs, and the tournament is not in Colorado Springs, so they're probably hosed.  
W's PICK:  UNLV.  The tournament is not in Colorado Springs but it is in Las Vegas, and more specifically at the Thomas & Mack Center which just so happens to be the Runnin' Rebels' home gym.  In a league that tightly packed at the top home court could make all the difference.  Plus I had this picture.

Week in Review - 11/17/2011

 My recap of the last Gopher game is here (the win over Fairfield).  In summary, I thought that although it was a very ugly game and the offense was truly atrocious, I liked how the Gophers were able to grind out the win using tough defense and free throw shooting.  That's something the teams of the past couple years wouldn't have been able to do.  They haven't had any easy wins (that should change tonight), but each of their wins so far has shown something positive about this year's edition of the squad.  I feel like I'm setting myself up for some serious disappointment with how I'm starting to think of this team.  God I hope I'm wrong. 


WHO WAS AWESOME

1.  Iowa State.  And I'm actually talking the football team here, because they were a 28 point underdog against the #2 team in the country on Friday night in Oklahoma State, one of the best offenses in the country, and they stayed with them step for step, tying the game up at 24 with 5 minutes to go in the fourth after a long ass drive culminating in a huge TD.  After forcing a punt, OSU picked off the Clone QB and looked to have a shot to win, but they missed the field goal and we were headed to OT.  Tied up after the first one, some LB dude who the announcer guys said was a superstar dove in front of a Brandon Weeden pass and tipped it up where some other ISU dude picked it off.  All ISU had to do was run the ball straight ahead and kick the field goal to win, but instead every time they gave it to this big white dude OSU basically dove out of the way and then TD Iowa State storm the field woo-hoo!  Seriously though it was pretty awesome, especially because the Cyclones haven't been to a bowl game since I think like 1945.  Of course this also means the BCS Championship could end up being two SEC teams that have already met which would be yawn, but whatevs.  Awesomely fun game to watch.

2.  Purdue Boilermakers.  Purdue didn't win the Puerto Rico Shootout (Alabama beat them in the title game), but they did answer some questions by winning their first two games over Iona and Temple.  Temple is a clear tournament team and Purdue's win over them is the best win any Big 10 team has so far this year, and although people who are dumb like you are going to say "Iona? Who gives a crap about Iona?" in reality the Gaels are legit and should win the MAAC (they're much better than Fairfield) and that might be the second best win any Big 10 team has (Iona just blew out Maryland by 20+).  So if you were worried about Purdue being bad, you don't really have to worry anymore.  I'm glad I could make you feel better.

3.  Kentucky Wildcats.  It's not that what they did was super impressive or anything (winning the Hall-of-Fame tipoff tournament by beating Penn State and Old Dominion), but it's just watching this team is simply stunning.  They are so freaking good.  Anthony Davis is ridiculously athletic and at 6-10 has the ball handling skills of a guard and fellow freshman Marquis Teague and Michael Gilchrist are just as talented if not more so.  Then they got Terrence Jones, who will probably be a top 3 pick if the NBA comes back, as well as Doron Lamb who would be the best player on almost any team in America.  Add in do it all senior Darius Miller and another freshman in Kyle Wiltjer (who, by the way, just dropped 19 on Penn State) and they're just loaded.  I mean it's ridiculous.  Hopefully they fall apart at some point in the tournament against an opponent who can take advantage of it, because this is easily the best team in the country and I really don't want Calipari to win a title.  But just wow.

4.  St. Louis Billikens.  It seems like Rick Majerus should have turned the St. Louis program around by now, but so far all they have to show for his four years of service is a second round appearance in the CBI.  Every year St. Louis looks like they might have the players to finally contend in the A-10, and every year they don't.  Maybe this is finally the seasons, because the Billikens knocked of Washington on Sunday, and although Washington isn't ranked or anything they should still be an NCAA Tournament team, so this is certainly a significant victory.  Actually, looking back over Majerus's tenure there, his only other notable non-conference wins were over Nebraska and Boston College, so it's probably safe to say this is the biggest win they've had since he got there.  The schedule is gooey soft until a game at New Mexico on New Year's Eve, so there's a very good chance the Billikens start off the season 11-0.  There's also a very good chance they end up missing the tournament after that start, but hey, it's something.

5.  Northwestern Wildcats.  No it wasn't exactly murder's row, but beating LSU, Tulsa, and Seton Hall to win the Charleston Classic is still a nice accomplishment early in the year.  It also made it clear that it's pretty much going to be Shurna and Crawford this year.  The two were Northwestern's top two scorers in each of the three games, with both of them averaging 24 per game, and with the Wildcats averaging 79 points per game that means Shurna and Crawford accounted for 60% of the team's scoring.  Actually besides those two only Luka Mirkovic and Dave Sobolewski managed to hit for double figures in any single game.  And you know what they say, only having two reliable scorers is always a recipe for long term success.



WHO SUCKED


1.  UCLA.  Holy effing meltdown.  First they lost their season opener to Loyola Marymount, which is not good but not 100% terrible.  Then coach Ben Howland suspended the team's best player Reeves Nelson for basically being a whiny bitch, and the team responded by getting whooped by 20 at home by Middle freaking Tennessee State in what would easily be the most embarrassing lost of the year so far if it wasn't for Cincinnati (see below).  It's ridiculous, UCLA should be good.  Here's a list of the top 100 recruits currently on the roster - Norman Powell, Tyler Lamb, Josh Smith, Reeves Nelson, Brendan Lane, Jerime Anderson, David Wear, and Travis Wear - damn near the entire roster!  And yet, here we are.  And next up?  The Maui Invitational, which means they'll probably (probably!) beat Chaminade in the opener since they got lucky there and then get their doors blown off twice and start the year 1-4.  Fire Howland?  Fire Howland.

2.  Virginia Commonwealth.  And this, Shaka Smart, is why you should have taken one of those coaching offers at a power school.  When you catch lightning in a bottle like last year, as opposed to Butler who slowly built their way up, you need to parlay that into a nice step up and a big payday, lest you fade away in bolivian.  VCU went down to the Charleston Classic and walked out with a shiny 7th place finish after losing to Seton Hall and Georgia Tech and then beating an incredibly shitty Western Kentucky team.  Seriously, it was a nice run and a great story, but with the fluky way it happened and losing 4 of their top 5 players Smart needed to bolt.  He may never get this chance again.  Not a very "smart" decision, Shaka.  God I'm clever.

3.  Akron.  When you're a good team in a terrible conference, you need to do everything in your power to boost your NCAA profile because even 1-2 conference losses makes it tough to get a bid unless you have some high profile, quality victories outside of conference.  So when you're the Zips and you beat Mississippi State (at MSU, even) you're all like "dude, sweet!"  Then you go to some tournament held at Valparaiso for some reason and what do you do?  Lose to Valparaiso and Duquesne, two non-tournament teams.  Literally, assuming you don't count things like getting hit by a meteor or the whole team dying of Gonorrhea, this is the worst thing that could have possibly happened.  Considering the best teams left on the schedule are Detroit, West Virginia, and Cleveland State, Akron nearly has to run the table or damn near to get a bid.  Four games into the season and it's already over.  It's like the Gophers of basketball.  Or something.  I don't know.

4.  Cincinnati.  Well there's no easy way to intro this, so I'll just come out and say it:  the Bearcats, who were ranked 20th in the country, lost to Presbyterian.  Presbyterian, who are a D-I squad for just the fifth year.  Presbyterian, who have won a total of 37 games over the last five seasons, and six of those were over non D-I schools including a win over Carver Bible College.  Presbyterian, whose biggest win in history was probably the one over Wake Forest last year, the worst Big 6 NCAAB team ever I'm pretty sure.  Presbyterian, who lost to Duke by 31 already this year and got beat by Western Carolina who lost to South Carolina (who lost to Elon) by 25.  Presbyterian, whose nickname is the Blue Hose for the love of christ.  Yes, that Presbyterian.  This is an awful, awful, awful, awful, awful loss.  Awful.  If the Gophers were 0-3 right now they wouldn't have hurt their NCAA chances as much as Cincinnati did on Saturday.   Just wow.

5.  Eli Manning.  Holy jesus does this guy suck.  Seriously he's got to be the worst quarterback in the NFL outside of Christian Ponder.  It's unbelievable that this guy won a Super Bowl, and not only won one but beat maybe the best team in NFL history in doing so.  God I hope he sends David Tyree a really kick-ass Christmas present every single year, or at least let's him live in his basement.  Seriously if Peyton Manning's neck is all effed up and they like, end up having to put a Frankenstein bolt through his neck and he can't turn his head at all he'd still be a way be QB than Eli.  Cooper is probably better, too.  And Marqueis Gray.


And I'm not writing a preview for the freaking Mount Saint Mary's game.  Seriously, it's a middling team from one of the worst conferences in America whose big goal for the year is to finish .500 in conference play.  This needs to be a 30 point victory.

Game Preview: Minnesota Gophers vs. Akron Zips

The Akron Zips travel to the Barn to take on your beloved Minnesota Gophers tonight, and it's an intriguing game to be sure.  Not so much because the Zips are great, because they are struggling this year after dominating the MAC the last several seasons and don't have an "All-MAC" type player they usually do, but because they actually bring some size into the Barn.  Among their top five players are three post guys, sophomore center Zeke Marshall, senior forward Brett McKnight, and junior forward Nikola Cvetinovic, and they all present some interesting issues.

Marshall is the big tall shot-blocking center (2.7 per game), standing at seven-feet tall with a long wingspan and a good pedigree (was Rivals #43 recruit in the country when he signed with the Zips), but he's rail thin and weighs just 218 lbs., and that's after "bulking up" this off-season.  He's capable of putting up some big numbers (22 pts, 8 rebs, 3 blks vs. Youngstown) but isn't generally a huge threat on the offensive end, partially due to his 56% free throw shooting.  His height is good, but his lack of bulk is going to be an issue against that big Gopher front court.

McKnight doesn't have to worry about bulk, at 245 lbs. he's a bit of a bull, but he's a bit short on height at 6-6.  Still, he's got the game to step outside and hit the three, and is a tough matchup with his inside/outside offensive skills.  Good news for the Gophers, however, is that McKnight has been suspended indefinitely by the coach for violating team rules, and hasn't played since the season opener.  I can't find anything on if he's going to be able to play tonight, so I would assume not, but I wanted to include him here for completeness sake because if he does play he's a concern for the Gophers as one of the Zips top returning players from last year's 24-win team.

The last post player I want to mention, Cvetinovic, is likely the Zips' biggest weapon.  He's 6-8, 230 lbs. so he has the size to play inside with Minnesota, and he's the team's leading scorer at 13 per game and has played some of his best ball against Akron's better opponents (nearly a triple-double against Dayton and 18 and 19 points against Detroit and UIC.  I haven't seen Akron play at all, but his lack of three-point attempts and propensity to get to the free-throw line make me believe he's a banger.  I'm looking forward to seeing how the Gopher front court handles a legitimate post threat.

As far as the perimeter goes, Akron does return two starters in point man Steve McNees (7 pts, 3 assists per game) and Darryl Roberts (9 and 2), along with  Brett McClanahan who has developed into a major weapon and is second on the team in scoring at 12.4 points per game and leads the team in rebounding at 5.9 per despite standing just 6-4.  All three of these guys can shoot from 3 (33%, 42%, and 35%) and we all know that is a major issue facing Minnesota's defense right now.  Similar to most of the other games against sub-par opponents, the Gophers should handle these guys but if they let one or more of the perimeter shooters get hot things can get interesting in a hurry.  Add in the solid front court that Akron boasts, and this could be a pretty interesting matchup.

Adding to that worry is the fact that, despite doing almost nothing well, their one major strength is that they don't turn the ball over, giving it away on just 17% of their possessions which ranks 36th in the country.  This tells me that they will get their shots.  They don't shoot very well overall as a team, either from 2 or from 3, and they don't rebound their misses, but they will get shots.  If the Gophers don't cover well and allow open looks, something that's plagued them this year, Akron will be able to stay in the game.

That being said, it's not as if the Zips have shown much of an ability to upset anybody.  As far as quality opponents go they've played Dayton (lost by 12), Cleveland State (lost by 13), and Temple (lost by 35).  Wins over Detroit and UIC show they can hang with so-so teams, but when it comes to top 100-type opponents they are staring at a likely double-digit loss.  The Gophers are pretty clearly a top 100 team.  So why can't I see them winning by double figures?

Minnesota 73, Akron 66

 
I won't be at the game and probably won't be able to watch the game, unfortunately, since I will be in the city of L.A. Angeles for work purposes.  Will their be blogging from the hotel room after a drink or two?  Sources say it seems likely.

A Quick and Early look at the Gopher Basketball Non-Conference Schedule

Alright, so before when I said I wasn't going to do a post about the Gophers non-conference schedule I was obviously lying, because here is a post about the Gophers non-conference basketball schedule.  I have tried to keep this information as accurate as possible, but there are always things that slip through and not even a genius such as myself can keep up with which players may or may not have been kicked off/left the team for every school in the country.  At least I can guarantee their records are accurate.  Probably.

Nov 2 vs. Northeastern State, Nov 8 vs. Winona State - Whatever.  Pass.

Nov 12 vs. Wofford College
Record:  26-9 (15-3 SoCon), lost in first round of NCAAs to Wisconsin
Good Wins:  @ Georgia, South Carolina
Last Year RPI:  70
Starters Lost:  1 (
NOTES:  A nice homecoming game for seniors Noah "The more successful" Dahlman and Cameron Rundles, the Terriers should be favorites to repeat in the SoCon and will probably be the Gophers biggest test outside of Puerto Rico.  Even so, this is a slow team without the athletes needed to keep up, and should be the first in a long line of easy wins to open the season.

Nov 15 vs. Siena
Record:  27-7 (17-1 MAAC), lost in first round of NCAAs to Purdue
Good Wins:  None
Last Year RPI:  33
Starters Lost:  3
NOTES:   One of the hottest mid-major type teams the last few years, the Saints should take a step back this year with a lot to replace including Ronald Moore, the national assist leader, and Edwin Ubiles and Alex Franklin, their two leading scorers and all-around threats from the wing.  Still, they do have some firepower back (Clarence Jackson is going to explode this year) and will probably be the second best team the Gophers will face - which still means they should be an easy win.

Nov 18 vs. Western Kentucky (in Puerto Rico)
Record:  21-13 (10-6 Sun Belt)
Good Wins:  Vanderbilt, Murray State
Last Year RPI:  138
Starters Lost:  2
NOTES:  Top player A.J. Slaughter is gone, but the Hilltoppers have a bit of a mini-mid-major dynasty going and reload their roster with a very good recruiting class this season.  They are bringing in five new players, including SG Brandon Peters who ranks as Rivals #129 freshman and a couple other three star recruits, along with a couple of transfers from Big 12 schools (Oklahoma and OSU).  It's probably good the Gophers get them early, because I have a feeling they are going to be a lot tougher by the end of the year.

Nov 19 vs. North Carolina (in Puerto Rico, assuming they beat WKU)
Record:  20-17 (5-11 ACC), lost in NIT Championship game to Dayton
Good Wins:  Ohio State, Michigan State, Wake, Miss State
Last Year RPI: 64
Starters Lost:  2 (I think)
NOTES:  It's hard to say how many starters the Tar Heels lost because they used so many lineups last season and never really were able to figure the team out until the NIT, but don't let the record fool you they have a ton of talent.  Harrison Barnes is amazing, John Henson started to look like he figured it out late in the season, Reggie Bulluck should be awesome, and really it just goes on and on.  Of course, I would have said basically the same thing last year, but I find it hard to believe UNC is going to be at that level back-to-back seasons.

Nov 21 vs.  Vanderbilt or West Virginai (or Nebraska or Davidson)
NOTES:  Most likely this will be either WVU or Vandy, and a win over either would be a challenge and a nice resume builder.  I think if they manage to beat UNC I'd hope for a championship matchup with he Mountaineers in order to get the biggest scalp possible, but if they lose to the Heels I'd hope they go up against Vandy, which would still be a nice win but an easier win as well.


Nov 24 vs. North Dakota State
Record:  11-18 (8-10 Summit)
Good Wins:  None
Last Year RPI:  267
Starters Lost:  3
NOTES:  This is not the same scrappy, rough-and-tumble, senior white boy led squad from a couple of years ago.  This is just a bad team.  Look at that RPI.  Now realize it's going to be about the same this year.  Worthless game here, rather than giving a few third and fourth tier former Minnesota high school players a chance to play in the Barn.  I guess I can see some value in that, and if this was the only game against an opponent like this, I wouldn't complain.


Nov 29 vs. Virginia (Big 10/ACC Challenge)
Record: 15-15 (5-11 ACC)
Good Wins:  UAB, Georgia Tech
Last Year RPI:  123
Starters Lost:  2
NOTES:  We get Virginia again the Challenge, which is a yawner, especially since their best and most exciting player, Sylvan Landesberg, got essentially booted off the team last year and is currently trying to hook on with an NBA squad.  Still, Tony Bennett is already starting to pay dividends on the recruiting trail, bringing in a very good class including #30 in the country K.T. Harrell, #108 James Johnson, #119 Joe Harris, and #148 Will Regan.  Wait.  Holy crap that's a really good class.  Virginia is on their way back to relevance (like, Harold Deane/Curtis Staples territory), and I'm now amending my previous statement and saying that THIS will be the toughest non-Puerto Rico game.

Dec 4 vs. Cornell
Record:  27-4 (13-1 Ivy), lost in the Sweet 16 of the NCAAs to Kentucky
Good Wins:  Temple, Wisconsin, Alabama, Harvard x 2
Last Year RPI:  37
Starters Lost:  4
NOTES:  Stop.  Just stop.  This is not a good opponent.  Last year was lightning in a bottle because they had 1.  A high quality coach, 2.  A legitimate scoring threat who could take over the game, 3.  A skilled 7-footer who was a weapon on offense and defense, and 4.  A point guard who could control the game.  All those things are gone.  The Gophers will win by 40, and at the end of the season their RPI will be north of 200.

Dec 8 @ St. Joseph's
Record:  11-20 (5-11 A-10)
Good Wins:  Dayton, Boston College
Last Year RPI:  180
Starters Lost:  2
NOTES:  The only true road game on the non-conference slate, always a good sign of a challenging schedule, and it's against a team with an RPI of 180 last year who will probably be even worse.  This is a truly horrible game, because nobody gives a crap if you win on the road against a team like this, but they are just good enough (and the Gophers are historically shaky enough on the road) to pull of an upset, which really hurts NCAA bid chances.  I am interested in seeing C.J. Aiken, a freshman who Rivals ranks as the #8 incoming center in the country who is playing for the Hawks for some reason that I assume involves a lost bet or alcohol.   


Dec 11 vs. Eastern Kentucky
Record:  20-13 (11-7 OVC)
Good Wins:  Morgan State
Last Year RPI:  164
Starters Lost:  2
NOTES:  They play Western, so might as well play Eastern, right?  I don't know.  A middling Ohio Valley team?  They're more likely to be a 200+ in RPI than a sub-100, so I don't really like this.  Should be an easy win though, so I guess they got that going for them.  Since there aren't enough of those already.

Dec 15 vs. Akron
Record:  24-11 (12-4 MAC), lost in first round of CBI to Green Bay
Good Wins:  Niagara
Last Year RPI:  95
Starters Lost:  3
NOTES:  My first reaction was "Akron?  Cool.  They've been a bubble team recently."  And then I realized that the days of Dru Joyce and Romeo Travis were actually five years or so ago, so they really aren't a dangerous team anymore (especially with losing their two best players to graduation).  I mean, Akron always seems to be a nice team, and I don't hate them being on the schedule at all since they'll probably just be a low 100 RPI, but meh.  Although maybe Lebron will show up.  Did I tell you I'm a huge Miami Heat fan now?


So really, there's no reason the Gophers shouldn't be, at a minimum, 9-2 heading into Big Ten play.  8-3 would be bad but not a disaster, but if they go in any worse than that the season is basically already done.  I don't think anybody realistically thinks they'll be more than a couple few games over .500 in Big Ten play, so a 7-4 non-conf record with that many cupcakes would make an NCAA bid a very tough road.

And it's really not that there are a ton of low-end games.  At most they'll probably end up with two teams with sub-200 RPIs, but it's the lack of high-end games that is so disappointing.  If everything breaks perfectly in the Puerto Rico Tip-Off they will end up having all of two marquee non-conference games - neither at home.  Didn't you think we'd be seeing better in Tubby:  Year IV?  I did.  Yeah, he's better than Monson (and thank god they didn't hire Molinari) and yes, we're seeing a better product and yes, they have indeed made the NCAA tournament two years in a row, so maybe it's my fault for wanting more.

Is it my fault?  Am I alone here?