Tournament Season now Hits the Big Guys

Ok I missed the Monday tournaments.  That's okay though, because I'm going to cover them today along with Tuesday's kick-offs which is when some of the big dogs come out to play.  I know many of you were lost on Monday night, wondering about the MAC and the MEAC and for that I apologize, but like a beacon in the dark I am here to walk you through.

Lots of stuff happened this weekend, including Kentucky, Baylor, and Boise got the big wins they needed while Iowa State, Ole Miss, and Cincy avoided what would have been crushing losses.  Belmont made there be one less bubble team by winning the autobid in the OVC (Davidson won the SoCon's autobid last night but they probably weren't getting an at-large in any case), and Oklahoma (probably still in), Colorado (probably still in), and Louisiana Tech (needs autobid now) picked up ugly losses along with the Gophers.

What does this all mean?  Well, along with the pairings coming out and showing the Gophers taking on Illinois in the opening round of the Big Ten Tournament it means the Gophers are in no matter what.  Illinois's RPI is 42, which means a loss is just fine and a win would be a very good win.  With most projectionists putting the Gophers in the 8-10 range there's no way a good loss knocks them out.  So congratulations?

Ideally the Gophers would beat Illinois and Indiana and jump up to a six seed to avoid facing a 1 or 2 in a quasi-home game situation, but to be honest I'm just hoping they don't embarrass themselves again.  It's good to have goals.  On to the tournaments!

MID-AMERICAN CONFERENCE
For most of the season Akron was a fringe-y bubble team.  They had dominated the MAC, going 13-0 with just four out-of-conference losses (3 in overtime) marring an otherwise perfect record - losses to Oklahoma State, Detroit, and Creighton are acceptable, losing to Coastal Carolina is not.  Unfortunately a non-conference slate then with only a win over Middle Tennessee and a whole slew of cupcakes kept them from serious at-large consideration, and a loss to Buffalo last Saturday (RPI #226), the suspension of starting point guard and leading assist man Alex Abreu for possession of five pounds of pot, and a follow up loss to Kent State (RPI #146) have the Zips not only on the outside looking in of an at-large bid, but no longer the favorite in this tournament.  
FAVORITE:  Ohio.  With Akron's issues with Smokey the Bobcats, who despite finishing out MAC play at 14-2 would have to describe this season as disappointing.  This is an exciting team with a kick-ass point guard in D.J. Cooper (and the money he took) who will look for answers but that ain't fun so he'll get in the pit and try to love someone.  Seriously though this is basically the same team who beat Georgetown in the tournament two years ago and made the Sweet 16 last season, they just whiffed on every opportunity to get a good win and had a super shitty schedule, thus win or in.  Dangerous team.  I hope they win.   
SLEEPER:  Eastern Michigan.  Kent State probably has a better chance of winning but I wouldn't really consider them a sleeper the way EMU is.  They 7 seed, the Eagles interest me because they are the top MAC team in 3-point defense, shot blocking, and stealing the ball.  They're a pretty dynamic defensive team so you never know.  They're also horrific offensively so you kind of do.
W's PICK:  Ohio.  Bawitdaba da bang a dang diggy diggy diggy said the boogy said up jump the boogy.

MID-EASTERN ATLANTIC CONFERENCE
Let's just get this out of the way:  the MEAC is terrible, and they're terrible every year.  Outside of the SWAC there's no other conference more guaranteed to end up in the play-in game.  On one of the old college basketball games on playstation I used to have you had an option to to start from a bottom of the barrel program and try to work your way up by winning enough games - of the 10 options at least five of them were MEAC schools and it might have been more.  That being said, of the six #15 seeds to knock off a #2 in round 1 two of them (Coppin State and Norfolk State) were MEAC schools. So I guess that's something.
FAVORITE: Norfolk State.  Despite losing their top two scorers from last year's Missouri beating squad, the Spartans crushed the MEAC going 16-0.  For some reason I now have a very uneasy feeling that if Tubby is let go by the Gophers Norfolk's State guy is going to come up far too often for my tastes.
SLEEPER:  North Carolina Central.  Interesting that Norfolk went 16-0, UNCC went 15-1, and they never played each other.  They also don't have a single win between the two that remotely resembles a quality victory, but that's far less surprising.  UNCC could be tricky because they are the top ranked defense in the conference in almost every single advanced metric.  Of the eight main ones the Eagles (what's with all the Eagles, man?) rank 1st in six of them.  Seems relevant.  
W's PICK:  Norfolk State.  I've spent too much time on this conference as is, so I'll just take the team that's been there before and has the #1 seed.  Why complicate things?

WESTERN ATHLETIC CONFERENCE
If you remember when I wrote about the Sun Belt (this would make you kind of a weirdo) I said I was rooting so hard for Middle Tennessee because I wasn't sure they'd get an at-large if they lost and I really wanted to see them in the tournament (they lost in the semis and it's looking dicey).   This is relevant because before last week Louisiana Tech looked a lot like Middle Tennessee but less fancy.  They were 16-0 in the conference and 26-3 overall, and even if the computer numbers weren't in their favor they were going to be tough to ignore if they ran the table and then fell in the WAC Tournament Final.  Luckily for the seeding committee they decided to go in the tank and got crushed by both New Mexico State (by 18) and Denver (by 24) and that is that.
FAVORITE:  Denver.  Although La Tech retained the #1 seed despite that late swoon, Vegas recognizes them for the pretender they were and installed Denver as the favorite.  With good reason, considering the Pioneers rank tops in the conference in both offensive and defensive efficiency.  It could all be fraudulent since Denver is another team that fits the Wisconsin/Virginia mold, but they're an interesting team who would absolutely have a chance to bore a team into a loss if they make the NCAAs.
SLEEPER: Utah State.  I'm a huge fan of the Aggies, as you would know if you paid more attention to me you asshole, and this is a bit of an off year for them since they usually dominate these WAC dorks. You can't really count out a Stew Morrill led USU team, can you?  Other than this year, I mean.
W's PICK:  Louisiana Tech.  Yes, the Bulldogs only played one non-shitty team in non-conference and lost to Texas A&M by 12.  Yes, they somehow lost to McNeese State and Northwestern State.  Yes, when they had a bye mid-week late in the season they scheduled Central Baptist College and won by 70 rather than having a decent team on the docket.  Maybe, I'm starting to rethink this pick but it's too late to go back now.

BIG EAST CONFERENCE
And here we go.  Big time conferences get rolling starting with the old Big East in it's last hurrah.  Plenty still to play for, as Georgetown has as shot at a #1 while Louisville could possibly get it as well depending on what happens around the country.  Syracuse is looking to find whatever it seems to have lost and Marquette wants to show it's more than just a home court bully, while both Villanova and Cincinnati are looking to shore up their at-large bids.
FAVORITE:  Georgetown.  The Hoyas, Louisville, and Marquette tied a top the conference at 14-4 with G-Town getting the favorable draw thanks to tie-breakers.  They should also be considered the favorite because they are also coming in hot.  The Hoya defense is coming on strong (the last team to score 70+ in non-overtime against the Hoyas was Pitt on January 8th)  and Otto Porter is starting to give off a big John Wallace type vibe where I can see him putting the team's offense on his back and the Hoyas riding the defense deep into the tourney.  I'm having a hell of a time trying to convince myself not to put them in the Final Four.
SLEEPER:  Providence.  They're a bit of a deep sleeper what with the 9 seed and all, but with so many good teams to find a true sleeper can be a little bit tougher in a conference like this.  The Friars boast the league's leading scorer in Bryce Cotton and after a rough start to the season that included losses to Penn State, Brown, and DePaul they've started to really come together.  Providence has won seven of its last nine with the only losses to Syracuse and UCONN on the road.  Winning four games is probably a bit much but, you know, it's happened before.    
W's PICK:  Louisville.  The number one defensive team in the country who both causes a ton of turnovers and holds opponents to terrible shooting percentages.  Their record this year is 26-5, and the five losses are to potential number 1 seed Duke by 5 (neutral site), by 2 to Syracuse when they were still good, by 9 at Villanova when the Wildcats were on that tear where they also beat Cuse, at potential #1 seed Georgetown by 2, and at Notre Dame in five Overtimes.  There may be more exciting teams and more upside-y teams, but the absolute safest bet, regardless of 1 or 2 seed, to get to the Final Four this year is the Cardinals.

MOUNTAIN WEST CONFERENCE
The conference that has risen the most in national rankings over the last few years, the MWC actually ranks third at kenpom behind the Big Ten and Big East.  As good as it is, however, there's not really much to play for here.  New Mexico, UNLV, Colorado State, and San Diego State are already locked in, and Boise State, by way of wins over SDSU and CSU in the last week and a half is probably in as well, and with an opening round match-up against the Aztecs again they can't hurt themselves.
FAVORITE:  New Mexico.  Believe it or not this a damn good league, and the Lobos going 13-3 in league play is damn impressive.  There are nine teams in this league and five of them rank in the top 50 (kenpom) with two more in the top 100.  The Lobos not only rolled the league, but also picked up wins over Davidson, UCONN, Valpo, and Cincy this year.  You're going to be tempted to underrate New Mexico when you fill out your bracket, but I'd disrecommend that.  
SLEEPER: Air Force.  It's tough to find a sleeper in a league where the top 5 teams are awesome and the bottom two suck (well, Wyoming has sucked after a great start after kicking leading scorer Luke Martinez off the team for something as innocent as getting a 15-yard running start before kicking an unconscious person in the head in a bar fight), but Air Force fits the bill well enough.  They play in the Wisconsin/Virginia style of slow but efficient play and that can always fuck people up and they've beaten four out of the five top teams in the MWC this year.  They've also been terrible outside Colorado Springs, and the tournament is not in Colorado Springs, so they're probably hosed.  
W's PICK:  UNLV.  The tournament is not in Colorado Springs but it is in Las Vegas, and more specifically at the Thomas & Mack Center which just so happens to be the Runnin' Rebels' home gym.  In a league that tightly packed at the top home court could make all the difference.  Plus I had this picture.

Game Preview: Gophers vs. Lafayette (and some general college hoops stuff)

Let's get this out of the way:  Lafayette is bad.  Like, really, really bad.  All five wins this year (vs. 8 losses) have come at home vs. terrible teams, including a non-D1 school.  The only decent teams they've played this year are Kentucky (lost by 52 yes 52), Maryland (lost by 9), Princeton (lost by 19), and Long Island twice (they split somehow).  Kentucky shot 65% against them.  They've given up 80+ points five times this year despite not being an uptempo squad.  Of the 347 Division I teams, they rank 313th in 2-pt field goal defense, 323rd in 3-pt defense, and 311th in total defensive efficiency.  They're a little better with the ball thanks to good three-point shooting (hit 36%) and great free-throw shooting (76.4% - 21st in the country) but they better take advantage of any shots they can get off because they don't take care of the basketball (227th in turnovers) or rebound their misses (316th in OReb %).  They don't have a single player averaging more than 4.3 rebounds per game, and it's not like they make it into a group effort because they're 324th in the country in rebounds per game.  They're horrible.  Kenpom predicts the Gophers to win this one 85-55.  That might end up being generous.

They've got a handful of semi-interesting players, I guess.  Seth Hinrichs is a 6-7 guard who averages 14 per game, and Dan Trist is a highly efficient (55% FG) power forward who also averages 14 per.  Tony Johnson is the point guard who averages a respectable five assists per game and was the only Leopard to hit double digits in scoring against Kentucky, and Joey Ptasinsky is a three-point chucker who hit seven against Morehead State.  But in reality it's an undersized, undermanned, and under-talented team going against one of the ten best teams in the country (yeah, I said it).  Lafayette could keep it interesting because they move the ball well (assists on 60% on their FGs, 54th in the country), shoot well, and hit all their free throws and in previous years that's the kind of thing that would worry me.  Not this year, however.  Lafayette's inability to rebound and the Gophers dominating defense will collide to make this an absolute ass-kicking of the highest order.  Get ready to see a whole lot of Kendal Shell.  More college basketball thoughts after the girls.

Gophers 90, Lafayette 52.

You're not going to believe this, but there aren't a lot of Lafayette chicks pictures out there.

-  I wish you could bet on things like "Jabari Parker is going to dominate next year."  He just announced he's going to attend Duke (over Michigan State, BYU, Stanford, and Florida) and he's going to thrive their.  Guy is like a more athletic version of Carmelo Anthony.  Granted I'm only basing this on some highlights I've seen because I've haven't watched a game of his because only weirdos watch high school basketball, but that was enough to convince me that Duke will win the National Championship next season.  Look man, I'm not happy about it either but I'm just reporting the facts.  Maybe we'll get lucky and somebody will pull a miracle upset in the tournament.  Seems likely, actually.

-  I'm so disappointed in the Ohio Bobcats.  I thought they'd be good enough this year to get an NCAA at-large bid (if they didn't win the MAC) and even ranked them as the 26th best team in the country this year before the season started.   After starting the season 6-0 (with decent wins over Richmond and St. Bonnie mixed in) things have fallen apart with the Bobcats going 1-4.  They missed out on a chance to add another top 100 type win by losing to UMass, missed their shot at a big-time marquee win by getting killed against Memphis, and threw two very ugly wins on the ledger dropping games to Winthrop (RPI 211) and Robert Morris.  With a weak conference again this year (Akron is the only other decent team) Ohio absolutely has to beat Oklahoma  next week in their last non-conference shot at a Top 100 win and then will have to roll through the MAC at pretty close to undefeated to get a bid if they don't win the conference tournament.  Although, really, that Winthrop loss and the rest of this stretch say it might be too late.

-  After a little bit of a dick tease that the Pac-10 was going to be back to being relevant this year after what feels like 10 years of shittiness they're clearly going for the shittiness thing again.  UCLA was supposed to be a top 10 team but is in shambles (with a loss to Cal Poly) and will likely get their coach fired soon.  Colorado and Cal got off to great starts, but Colorado needed double overtime to beat Texas Southern, lost to Wyoming, and got crushed by Kansas and Cal lost three straight against legit competition including getting absolutely destroyed by a terrible Wisconsin squad.  USC had their sites on a NCAA Tournament bid but has been a total train wreck, Stanford hasn't won a single meaningful game and lost to Belmont, and Washington has lost to Albany and Nevada.  Other than Arizona (fool's gold, trust me) and Oregon (their win over UNLV was more impressive than the loss at UTEP was harmful) I don't know that there's a team in this conference who can win an NCAA Tournament game, assuming anybody else can even get there.  But I suppose we should be used to this.  The Pac-12 is just awful at hoops now. 

-  Obviously it will all come down to match-ups so this isn't a prediction per se, but these are the teams I think are most likely to make the Sweet 16 this year:  Indiana, Duke, Michigan, Syracuse, Minnesota, Louisville, Florida, Kansas, Gonzaga, VCU, New Mexico, and Creighton.  No that's not 16 but I can't find 16.  These 12 I would be willing to bet will make up at least half the Sweet 16.  I'm too tired and drunk to figure out how big a limb that is to go out on, but I'm out on it any way and I'm loving every minute of it.

-  The NCAA is suspending Texas guard Myck Kabongo for the entire season.  Why, you might ask?  Sounds like he might have had some dealings with an agent and/or had a workout paid for by someone when he was flirting with entering the NBA Draft last season.  But wait, you'd say, I thought you only got like a 10 game suspension for that kind of stuff, and you'd be right.  The NCAA, however, has brought the hammer down on Kabongo because he wasn't immediately forthcoming with all the information, similar to when they clamped down on my main man Dez Bryant.  You know, people always talk about how guys like Bud Selig and Roger Goodell are too heavy handed, but the NCAA is a total joke.  They make billions of dollars off student athletes and then rule them with an iron fist.  I was going to write more but I can feel my train of thought going right off the rails as I'm trying to watch The League right now as well.  Effin' Rafi. 

 Yeah that's about it.  Should be plenty.   For those who don't believe in Twitter you'll notice that on the right hand column my tweets are showing up over there so you can read them.  Much thanks to Stroms for the help.

DWG College Hoops Preview: Teams #33-26

Pablo Sandoval hits three home runs.  Barry Zito not only is unhittable, but also knocks in a run against probably the best pitcher of this generation.  Angel Pagan gets a double by hitting a routine bouncer that hits the third base bag.  Tim Lincecum strikes everyone out in a season where he's basically been a pitching machine.  Gregor Blanco can suddenly get to everything.  Call me crazy, but are you getting a vibe that the Giants stole that Cardinal October magic?  Good thing I got in on the Giants to win at +160 already.  I know I said I was going to be rooting for the Tigers and thought they were the better team, but so much money poured in on Detroit that the +160 for the Giants was too juicy to pass up.  Obviously.  Any way, I wrote some more previews while watching the game. 

33. Kansas State Wildcats.  You know, K-State has a pretty good thing going lately and have morphed into one of the most consistently athletic teams in the country year-after-year, and that's not going to change this season.  The Wildcats have most of last year's team back, including eight of their top nine scorers from last season, which means they'll most likely still be a god awful jump-shooting team (unless someone or someones went Eric Harris on it this offseason) but that's ok because they should make up for it, again, by being phenomenal at attacking the basket and grabbing a high percentage of all those bricks they throw up there.   Of course, they just hired Bruce Weber and since we all know a coaching match-up between Weber and paper bag would be a toss-up we can probably expect this nice little run by K-State to fall by the wayside as they descend into mediocrity once again and Weber moves on to destroy yet another program.

32.  St. Mary's Gaels.  I know what you're worrying about, and yes don't worry floppy haired uber Beiber dork Matthew Dellavedova is back for one more year.  And someone tell me if I'm totally crazy, but I'm getting a distinct Steve Nash vibe from this kid.  Think about it.  Floppy hair.  From a foreign country that speaks a weird brand of English.  Under the radar recruit who lands at a WCC school.  Immediate impact as a freshman, then end up getting progressively better, developing into one of the best PGs in the land, and single-handedly leading their team to upsets against bigger (and better) teams.  I really think we're in for a monster year from both Dellavedova and St. Mary's, if only to validate my Nash theory.  But if St. Mary's ends up making the Sweet 16 this year I'd start finding ways to bet YES on things like "Someday Matthew Dellavedova will win two NBA MVP awards."

31.  St. Louis Billikens.  St. Louis has been on a slow build since they hired Rick Majerus, so it'll be interesting to see if is absence (taking a year off for some kind of medical leave) hurts them, because this team has a chance to be very good this year.  It's actually kind of a an interesting case because they only lose one dude from last year's team, but it's the dude that was kind of their leader who did everything (1st in points, 2nd in rebs, 5th in assists, 4th in steals, 1st in FG%, 1st in FT%).  Talent-wise they're pretty loaded, but losing the head coach, the team leader, and now their best returning player, Kwamain Mitchell, is out for six weeks with a broken foot.  I don't know, that seems like a lot to deal with for a team who is supposed to be in good shape for this season.  Kind of makes me think of the Cincinnati Bengals for some reason.

30.  BYU Cougars.  It's always interesting how the Mormon faith impacts college hoops.  There's the scheduling, because BYU can't/won't play on Sundays which impacts the NCAA Tournament.  Brandon Davies got suspended for the season two years ago because he had sex and then admitted it to his coach.  And there's always the random Mormon mission that takes a player off the team mid-way through his career.  This time, however, BYU is actually getting a big boost, because Tyler Haws back.  Two seasons ago Haws averaged 11 points and 4 rebounds per game as a freshman and still has a 48-straight made free throw streak.  Getting a guy back who has already proven he can play is golden, and add Haws to a mix that includes the 6-11 Davies (15 & 8 last year) and point guard Matt Carlino (12 & 5) and BYU won't even miss the loss of a couple of seniors and should have no problem grabbing an NCAA bid.  Assuming everybody keeps their pants on, or at least has the common sense to not go running to their bishop about it.

29.  Drexel Dragons.  You know what's a really sweet team name?  Dragons.  Awesome.  Anyway, the Dragons, who are routinely one of the best defensive squads in the country, are set up for success this year.  The only lose one major contributor off last season's team that set a school record for victories, and with VCU now in the A-10 and Old Dominion ineligible for the conference title since they're bolting to C-USA after this season it's wide open for Drexel to take the league crown.  As I mentioned Drexel is always nails defensively, but last year's edition could actually score some points as well and a Dragon team that can score is pretty scary for somebody in round 1 of the tournament.  Like, scary like that Tiamat five-headed dragon from the Dungeons & Dragons cartoon.  Yes I watched it as a kid and it was awesome.  I also own a DVD with 10 episodes on it, what of it?  No you're the nerd.

28.  Wisconsin Badgers.  Ok, I've learned my lesson.  I don't know if it's my hatred of the Badgers because they're evil (I mean they even wear red, pay attention) or just because they're so boring, but every year I think the Badgers will be horrible and every year I'm wrong.  Look at this season - Jordan Taylor is gone and there isn't a player on the roster who looks like they can replace his production, even by committee.  Jared Berggren and Ryan Evans are the two best players coming back, and Evans should be a six man and Berggren is terrible.  Their top guards are going to be Ben Brust and Josh Gasser and neither of them scares anybody.  But of course, none of that matters.  They're going to play so slow it puts everyone to sleep, bore everyone to death, never turn the ball over, grab all the available rebounds, and win way more games than I'd ever expect.  Just like every year.  It's like an evil version of college basketball Groundhog Day.

27.  Marquette Golden Eagles.  At first when I was ranking teams off the top of my head I think I had Marquette in the 40s or 50s simply because losing both Jae Crowder and Darius Johnson-Odom to the NBA is a crusher, but when I did more reading I realized there is plenty still here to work with (plus counting out Buzz Williams is like counting on Bruce Weber).  Their back court is loaded with Junior Cadougan and Vander Blue, who is one of my favorite players because he has a sweet name, a sweet game, and he pissed on Wisconsin, and their returning leading scorer is a big man so they'll have a nice balance.  The back court should be their strength, but that doesn't mean their shooting - the three returning guards shot combined 48-162 from 3 last year and that will probably hold them back from being a truly dangerous team.  Still better than Wisconsin though.

26.  Ohio Bobcats.  You only need to know one thing - yes, D.J. Cooper is back.  You remember Cooper, right?  He's the guy who pretty much beat Georgetown two years ago and Michigan last year in the NCAA Tournament.  And he was pretty good against South Florida too, helping Ohio to the Sweet 16.  Yes, he's back and now a senior.  As is last year's second leading scorer Walter Offutt.  And #3 Reggie Keely.  #4 Nick Kellog is back too, but he's only a junior.  #5 Ivo Baltic is a senior though.  You see where I'm going with this?  The Bobcats have their top nine players back and all but one is a senior or junior.  The have top end talent in Cooper and Offutt.  And they must have a pretty good chemistry together because even though their coach left to take the Illinois job nobody transferred out.  This could be a very special year, which feels weird to say about a MAC team. Plus DJ Cooper makes me think of D.B. Cooper and that's awesome.   Of course since they are a MAC team, it's pretty likely if they don't win their conference tournament they don't go dancing at all.  Which would suck like Nick Blackburn.  Or Justin Verlander, I suppose.


Previous:
Teams #68-60
Teams #59-53
Teams #52-47 
Teams #46-39 
Teams #38-34

Week in Review - 3/15/2010

Whew.   Were you like me and had your heart drop when Florida popped up on the screen?  Terrifying, but ultimately the committee made the right choices and the Gophers were rewarded for an incredible last week of ball.  I like the matchup quite a bit, too.  Not necessarily because I think the Gophers will have an easy time with Xavier or anything, but mainly because I think that region is pretty weak.  If they can get by the Musketeers, they get the weakest three seed in the second round.  They also caught a pretty big break by playing in Milwaukee, where they should have a sizable advantage in fans.

One thing is for sure, it's exciting, and the season no longer goes down as a failure.  I'll be back with a true preview before I head out to Chicago with Snacks and Snake, but for now I'm predicting a Gopher win.


WHO WAS AWESOME

1.  Colt Iverson.  How did this happen?  And I'm not even talking numbers, although basically scoring double his season average in every game is impressive, but his game was completely unrecognizable and I mean that in a good way.  His moves were suddenly polished, and he had a lot of them.  He now suddenly has a drop step.  He's using shot fakes beautifully and looks like Kevin McHale down there.  He can score with either hand.  I have no idea what is going on here.  I thought his upside was going to be like a Greg Ostertag rebounder/enforcer type who is most valuable for setting picks and his five fouls per game, but suddenly things have gotten really interesting.  If this is for real, the Gophers are suddenly a dangerous team.  Please let this be for real - like the Loch Ness Monster - and not some kind of false production - like the Moon Landing.

2.  San Diego State.  If you're on the bubble going into your conference tournament there is one surefire way to make sure you get a bid - win the whole thing, and that's what the Aztecs did, winning the MWC tournament, including wins over UNLV and New Mexico.  SDSU is a dangerous team, and they went 2-1 against New Mexico this year with the loss being by just two points.  Drawing Tennessee is always a mystery since they are the kind of team who could either flame out early or go on a deep run, but I'm calling an Aztec upset in the first round.

3. Duke.  It's always tough to praise Duke, but they did what a lot of other regular season conference champions couldn't manage and they went out and won their conference tournament.  They got lucky a bit in that Maryland got knocked out early by Georgia Tech, but winning the ACC is still winning the ACC.  As a bonus, they picked up the fourth #1 seed and were somehow placed in the easiest region in the history of college basketball.  But, since they're Duke, I'm sure they'll still screw it up somehow.

4.  Ohio.  Every year some middling team from a smaller conference gets hot and makes a run, winning their conference tournament and setting themselves up to get their doors blown off in the first round.  This year, that honor goes to the Ohio Bobcats for winning the MAC, with Georgetown being the doors-blow-offer.  Kent State or Akron would have been a dangerous foe, but they couldn't get it done so now we're saddled with the crappy Bobcats.  And how tough is that region?  The top five seeds are all legit Final Four contenders, including probably the best #1 and best #2.  It should end up playing pretty close to form as I only see one real first round upset possibility, but whoever ends up coming out of there is really going to have to earn it.

5.  Second-Tier basketball tournaments.  I know nobody really gives a crap about the NIT, CBI, or CIT because the only thing that matters is the NCAA Tournament, and I agree with a lot of that, but I also really like the second-tier tournaments.  There's some intrigue with these.  Illinois and Dayton ended up in the same bracket, and that would be a pretty good matchup.  Will either UCONN or North Carolina put their talent together finally and play well, or have they completely given up for the year?  And if nothing else, be thankful they exist so there's some college ball to watch/wager on all week long.



WHO SUCKED

1.  Conference USA.  It looked like this might be a break-through year for C-USA with a legitimate chance of them getting four teams in the dance depending on how the conference tourney shook out.  It shook alright, with Memphis and UAB both getting dumped by crappy teams in the quarters, ending both team's NCAA dreams and assuring that outside of UTEP, nobody would be getting an at-large bid from the conference.  They did manage to get two team's in thanks to Houston's championship win, but the Cougars are crappy and UTEP got a shitty seed, so there's a good chance C-USA goes 0 for the tournament this year.

2.  Virginia Tech.  This is the team that most people seem to have a problem with being excluded from the tournament, but the Hokies aren't even close to deserving a bid.  That 23-8 mark looks nice, but their non-conference Strength of Schedule ranked a ridiculous 344th in the country.  Their only non-conference wins over teams that are even remotely not god awful were over Penn State and Georgia, pretty much the defining line before you get to god awful.  And as good as a 10-6 conference mark looks, they didn't beat either Duke or Maryland.  Combine all that with a first round loss to Miami in the ACC tournament, and there is no way the Hokies deserved a bid.  Sorry VT, maybe try to schedule some real teams in the future.

3.  Dayton.  Well it is now official - this year's trip to Chicago will be a bit hollow, since when we go to the Dayton bar there won't be any Dayton fans there, unless I guess maybe there's an NIT game or something.  Considering they were supposed to be at the top of the A-10 and be a sweet-16 type team, this year can't be considered anything other than a disaster.  Other than one win over Xavier and an early non-conference victory over Georgia Tech, they couldn't beat anybody, whiffing on games against Villanova, Kansas State, and New Mexico, and they lost plenty of games they couldn't afford to lose.  Coming down the stretch they lost games to St. Louis, Richmond, and Duquesne.  Losing to Richmond and St. Louis might have been manageable, but the loss to Duquesne was a crusher. 

4.  Mississippi State.  Jarvis Varnado deserves better than the NIT, but for the second straight year MSU didn't do enough to get into the tournament and had to try to win SEC tournament to get in.  Last year it worked, this year it came just short.  The Bulldogs were damn close though, leading Kentucky by three with 4.9 seconds to go in the game.  The Wildcats, however, pulled off the rare intentionally miss a free throw, get the rebound and score to tie the game move and sent it into overtime where they ended up winning and sent MSU to the NIT.  Hopefully they can play well and at least make it to Madison Square Garden and send Varnado out in style, a player like that deserves it.  I'm really going to miss him.

5.  Northwestern.  Ouch.  From 10-1 media sleeper sensation to earn their first ever NCAA bid all the way to a 7 seed in the NIT (and will play vs. Rhode Island in round 1).  I'm not too worried about them though, they'll almost certainly get a bid next year.  With Shurna and Thompson both back, Coble returning from injury, and Drew Crawford getting better they have a real chance at an upper-division finish in the conference next year.  That sounds weird.

THE GOPHERS MADE THE TOURNAMENT!!!!!