Twins/Gophers/Wolves Pre-July 4th Round-Up

Before the Super-long holiday weekend when everyone disappears for five days, I figured I should do a quick round-up of the three Minnesota sports teams I know about and touch on the biggest story right now.  See, I know (and love) both Gopher Hoops and the Twins, and I'm pretty knowledgeable about the Wolves and the NBA.  I watch the Vikings every Sunday and play fantasy football, but I don't really cover them because I don't consider myself an expert unlike the others I mentioned.  See, unlike some local folks who actually get paid around here, I stick to what I know so I don't end up saying things like whenever Paul Allen and Paul Charchian get together to talk baseball.  Actually that'd be a pretty sweet live blog each week.  I might quit my job and do just that.  Soon I'll be richer than astronauts.  

-  Most importantly, and keep in mind we're still very early in the rumor stage here, but Rich Pitino may already have the wheels turning in a big way on some very good recruits for 2014.  First, there was this:

Me & My Bro @J_Newton20 Thinking Of A Master Plan All Imma Say Is #StayTuned 👌😎
— Isaiah Whitehead (@Isaiah_W15) June 28, 2013

For those who don't know, the Tweeter is Isaiah Whitehead, a 6-4 shooting guard out of Brooklyn who ranks as the #10 SG and #35 overall player by ESPN.  He has offers from Minnesota, Arizona, Kansas, Louisville, Maryland, St. John's, Syracuse, and UCLA.  The re-Tweeter is Ja'Quan Newton, a 6-2 point guard from Philly who ranks as the #13 PG and #67 overall.  He holds offers from Georgetown, Miami, Minnesota, Oregon State, Rutgers, St. Joe's, Syracuse, Temple, Xavier, and Villanova.

If you notice, the only two schools to have offered both are Minnesota and Syracuse.  That would probably be enough to spazz everybody out (myself included), but next came this tweet:

Based on a tweet, a hunch and a little more, changed Crystal Ball picks for JaQuan Newton & Isaiah Whitehead. http://t.co/9AYj29zATo
— Jerry Meyer (@jerrymeyer247) June 28, 2013

From recruiting expert Jerry Meyer who has gotten 13 of 14 commits for 2014 correct, and if you click on the link you'd see he had updated his predictions page to forecast Whitehead and Newton heading to Minnesota.

To add a little more fuel to the fire, Newton and Gopher target Reid Travis were on the Celtics together at the NBPA Top 100 Camp (no, I have no idea what this is) this year, and Newton then sent Travis this tweet

@Reid_Travis_22 follow back Bro
— Ja'Quan Newton (@J_Newton20) June 29, 2013

Does this mean the Gophers should be expected a trio of big-time commits soon?  Yes of course.


-  In the most anticipated arrival of a Twins' pitcher since Les Straker, Kyle Gibson made his debut on Saturday and was inevitably called Gibby by Gardenhire.  He was also pretty solid, going 6 innings and allowing 8 hits, no walks, 2 runs, and striking out 5 while picking up the win which we all know is the real key to evaluating a pitcher so way to go Gibby.  It's super exciting for all us Twins fans because we've been hearing about Gibson forever, he truly has #1-#2 stuff which looks even more better when your team is full of #4 guys, and he struck out five which is actually more than any other Twin on the staff averages in nine innings so yeah and stuff.

Just remember, one start does not a career make.  Using Game Score, Gibson's debut was on par with Liam Hendriks and Pat Mahomes when they made their first starts, and we know how that turned out (ok Hendriks isn't done yet, probably, but the train isn't currently pointed towards Cooperstown or even Decentville.  Actually the best debut by a Twins pitcher since 1970 belongs to Anthony Swarzak in 2009 when he went seven innings and allowed just 5 hits and zero runs.  Do I think Gibson will go the way of Hendriks or Mahomes or Swarzak?  No, not at all.  He put up a good game and has the pedigree and scouting reports behind him that none of those other guys did.  Then again, so did Rick Ankiel, Ben McDonald, and a whole mess of Met's prospects.  This year alone Cardinals stud prospect Michael Wacha pitched a gem his first time out, then got bombed the next time and is back in the minors.  Dan Straily had an awesome debut for the A's last season, but has jumped back and forth from the rotation and AAA since.

Ok, now I'm just depressing myself and realizing I'm preparing myself for disappointment because being a fan of Minnesota sports means being disappointed.  Let's just agree to stop now.

-  When the T-Wolves chose Shabazz Muhammad I wrote on the Twitter, "Yes! Shabazz!" and I was immediately and almost completely savaged (JB of Late Night Hoops was one of the few who agreed with me).  Frankly I was stunned people would hate the pick.  Who else are you going to take at 14?  The afro dude?  There wasn't a single other player available who was remotely interesting.  And looking at the draft there were only a handful of guys with the potential to be all-stars some day:  Bennett, Oladipo, Porter, McLemore, Caldwell-Pope, Carter-Williams (if he learns to shoot), Shabazz (with the right coach), and maybe Shane Larkin.  Once Pope went at 8 the entire draft was in shambles already, trading back and getting a possible future star in Muhammad and an immediate defensive presence in Dieng was a great move.  Seriously, who would you have taken at 14?  If it's anybody other than Shabazz you're really dumb, FYI.

Oh, I get it, you wanted them to keep Burke.  I get it, I really do.  I mean he's so smooth out there.  He looks like he's moving at half speed but is just as fast as everybody else, and he's just got such a good head for the game he's mentally a step ahead.  I know there are some questions about his athleticism and his jump shot, but he's battle tested in the best conference in the land, I'm sure he'll be fine in the NBA.  That's what you're telling yourself, right?  That's what you think?  Well guess what?  Guess who else that describes?

































EVAN TURNER!

Hello exactly.  You could have written the exact same thing about Turner before he was drafted #2 overall by the Sixers three years ago and he's been bust city.  He's been so bad Philly tried to trade him to Phoenix before the draft for the Suns late 1st rounder AND THEY WERE DENIED even though the Suns wing players right now are Jared Dudley, Wes Johnson, P.J. Tucker, and Shannon Brown.  Oh my!  Burke is such a sure thing that a team in desperate need of a PG, the Pistons whose current PGs are Jose Calderon and Brandon Knight and Knight is so bad they're moving him to the 2 next year, who also had a significant home town angle with him chose a shooting guard over him instead.

I'm sorry, but when Caldwell-Pope was taken (over Burke) by the Pistons the Wolves' draft was all fucked up.  Literally the only acceptable answer to the question, "what could have better than what the Wolves did" was "draft C.J. McCollum."  I don't like him as an NBAer and Flip has come out and said that he and the team viewed McCollum as a point guard so they weren't all that interested but I can see where somebody would think he could be a Steph Curry type with less gay.  That's your only answer.  If you have a different one feel free to leave it in the comments but just know that chances are you're a pretty big moron.

- Lastly, Joe Coleman announced he's transferring to St. Mary's.  Other than the Gaels total reliance on the three and commitment to defense it's a perfect marriage.

Gophers vs. Huskers Preview + Wednesday Tournaments

The Gophers play Nebraska in Lincoln, and although some of the pressure has been alleviated by the wins over Indiana and Penn State, which locked the Gophers into the NCAA Tournament, they can still close strong and get maybe as high as a 3 seed, or crash and end up around a 10.  My hope is they get to a six to avoid the 1-2 seed in the second round if they advance, and I think two more wins would do it - whether the last two regular season games or one of them and a B10 tournament win - so this is still a pretty important game.

Since the last time the Gophers played Nebraska the Huskers have gone 2-5 with the two wins home games vs. Iowa and Penn State.  In that time they've also played Ohio State and Michigan State at home, losing both by less than ten (7 and 9) so they're not exactly a juggernaut, but road games in the Big 10 are never easy even if Nebraska doesn't really have any impressive home upsets to point to.

Overall Nebraska is a pretty terrible team.  They don't do anything particularly well other than take care of the basketball, are thoroughly mediocre on defense, and area terrible shooting team.  You remember when the Gophers smoked them at Williams, right?  The talent disparity between the two teams is glaring, and the only thing that kept Nebraska at all in the game (and the Gophers won by 19) was Ray Gallegos going coo-coo from three and scoring 30 points.  Could that happen again but like, way more dramatic?  I suppose, but Gallegos has only scored more than 11 points once in the seven games since then, everyone else on Nebraska sucks, and the Gophers look like they've finally figured things out again.  If you're going to have a lull like the Gophers did, have it in the middle of the season, not the end.  I choose to believe they're back.

Minnesota 70, Nebraska 53

Now on to Wednesday's tournaments.  

ATLANTIC SUN
Another pretty terrible conference like the Big South, but the one thing the A-Sun has going for it is two dominant teams in Mercer and Florida Gulf Coast who are both in the top two in the conference in both offensive and defensive efficiency.  When you're dealing with a low major you can forget about having a balanced, deep league and you just have to hope you have a squad or two that is good enough to grab some name recognition by beating, or at least scaring, its first round NCAA foe.  Both these teams have a least a chance.
FAVORITE:  Mercer.  The Bears take the one seed by a game over FGC, but I'm not sure they're the better team.  The Bears have a nice non-conference win over Florida State, but FGC beat Miami.  Both come in hot with Mercer finishing out at 9-1 and the Eagles at 9-2, and the Eagles won their last meeting last week by 3.  This is one of those conference tournaments where if the favorites win out and Mercer meets FGC in the Final it will be worth your time to watch.  Probably. 
SLEEPER:  North Florida.  Well, probably not, but they do have Will Wilson, who you may remember as the point guard who never ever ever scores.  You will be happy to know that Wilson, who played 31.5 minutes per game this year, upped his scoring average to 3.6 per game, a career high, while upping his assists to 6.1 per game.  His total points this season were 112, nearly doubling his career point total which stood at 121 coming into the year.  And he did, in fact, finally break double figures in a game this year notching 13 against Jacksonville so congratulations.  Will Wilson, we salute you.
W's PICK:  Florida Gulf Coast.  The Eagles are just more tested, having played four tournament teams this year (Miami, Duke, Iowa State, VCU) while Mercer has just New Mexico.  Granted that all happened a long time ago and is pretty much irrelevant, but like I said, it's awfully tough to separate these teams.

PATRIOT LEAGUE
I know you're thinking whoopity-doo another terrible conference and you're right, but you're also sort of wrong too.  This might be the best version of the Patriot League I can recall (although they're still ranked as just the 17th best conference by kenpom).   Bucknell and Lehigh are top 100 teams with two others in the 100s and only Navy falling past #300.  Might not sound like much, but it's a step in the right direction and you can see the difference finally allowing athletic scholarships can make.
FAVORITE:  Bucknell.  Unfortunately C.J. McCollum broke his foot in a game against VCU this winter (a game Lehigh lost by only four) so the Bison won the league crown and the #1 seed.  That's not a slam on Bucknell, who are a very good team with wins over Purdue and LaSalle this season, it's just a bummer because most of the Lehigh team that beat Duke was back this year and McCollum is an amazing player.  Even so, Bucknell's Mike Muscala is a stud as well who averaged a double-double while leading the conference in scoring and rebounding, and if the Bison get through they're absolutely a threat to steal a win in the tournament.
SLEEPER:  Army.  The Black Knights play at a pace considerably fast than anyone else in the Patriot and do so while shooting, and making, a ton of three pointers.  That's the kind of team I like for a sleeper.
W's PICK:  Bucknell.  If McCollum returns from injury (even as of 3 days ago, the most recent article I could find, things are still up in the air) things get more interesting, but if he doesn't I expect Bucknell to run the table pretty easily.

OHIO VALLEY
Belmont moving in to the OVC was supposed to create a two-headed monster at the top of the conference with the Bruins and Murray State.  The only problem was the Racers didn't hold up their end of the bargain, whiffing on their only real out of conference chance to get a big win against Colorado (and what a horrible schedule they put together) and going just 10-6 in conference.  Belmont still has an outside chance at an at-large given good computer numbers and a 14-2 conference record but it's an outside shot at best and the OVC will most likely remain a one-bid league.
FAVORITE:  Belmont.  These guys have been relevant long enough that I can even tell you their two best players without looking it up - Ian Clark and Kerron Johnson - a pair of senior guards who have been this team's leaders forever.  Their are three other upperclassmen starters as well and those five play the majority of the team's minutes and basically score all their points.  They've been in the last two NCAA Tournaments but haven't broken through for a win yet.  With that experience now could this be the year.
SLEEPER:  Eastern Kentucky.  Given Murray State's rough year and not even ranking in kenpom's Top 25 they might be a more appropriate sleeper than EKU - the team that finished with the second best record in the league and only team in the top 2 in both O and D efficiency in the OVC - but I'm pretty sure Murray is still the sexier pick since the media has bludgeoned us all over the head with them for years.  The Colonels create a ton of turnovers but don't defend all that well, which is generally death to teams who play the Bruins.  Still, they've probably got the best shot to knock them off.
W's PICK:  Belmont.  I feel like I'm picking a lot of favorites, but that's kind of how it works in these conferences. Also, to answer my earlier rhetorical question, no it's not the year.  Belmont won't win an NCAA Tournament game again.

 


WEST COAST CONFERENCE
A pretty uninteresting conference tournament but in an interesting way.  There are two possible NCAA teams here:  Gonzaga (locked in, possible #1 seed) and St. Mary's (right on the bubble).  What St. Mary's could really use is another quality win, but the only way to get one at this point in the WCC is to beat Gonzaga.  However, because of their seeds, beating Gonzaga is only possible in the WCC Tournament Final, which would put the Gaels in automatically.  So either St. Mary's wins their way in, or they've already done enough to get the invite.  Uninteresting in an interesting way, which is what I said if you had been paying attention.
FAVORITE:  Gonzaga.  Although the WCC is far better than a lot of other conferences I have or will be previewing (ranking 10th) there might not be a more prohibitive favorite in any conference than Gonzaga.  The Zags are in line for a possible #1 seed, are 16-0 in conference play, and rank as the #4 team in the country according to kenpom.  Sure, St. Mary's (rank #19), BYU (#71), and Santa Clara (#87) are quality teams with their eyes on the upset, but Gonzaga has crushed all three of these teams this year.
SLEEPER:  San Francisco.  It's not easy to pick a sleeper here when the top four just beat up on each other and killed everyone else (between the four good teams only three of their losses came to other teams) so I'll go with the team that picked up one of those (over BYU) and has an interesting statistical profile.  The Dons, who are coached by Rex Walters which feels relevant for some reason, hit 40.2% of their three pointers this year, good for 9th best in the nation.  So that's something.  Although the way the WCC sets things up it's almost guaranteed to be either Gonzaga or St. Mary's coming out of here.
W's PICK:  St. Mary's.  This isn't an indictment of Gonzaga, because I do think they're a Final Four contender who deserves a one seed, but St. Mary's is going to be playing as if their lives depend on it in this game - and their tournament lives very well might.  I think they're flying under the radar a bit, especially since Gonzaga swept them, and I don't want to have to stop watching Matthew Dellavedova yet.  If loving that floppy haired little muppet is wrong I don't want to be right.

NORTHEASTERN CONFERENCE
You want to talk about a conference only a mother could love, let's go with the NEC.  They're consistently ranked in the bottom quartile for conference strength, and if you look at the list of teams I don't know that they've ever even been close in an NCAA Tournament game, much less won one.  There are a handful of other conferences who can never rise out of the bottom of the barrel as a whole, but outside of the SWAC I can recall each one of those conferences at least being competitive with many of them actually winning games here and there.  Not so the NEC.  Where have you gone, Charles Jones?
FAVORITE:  Robert Morris.  The closest thing the NEC puts out as a power program, the Colonials have missed the NCAA Tournament each of the last two seasons despite winning at least 12 conference games each year and advancing to the NEC Tournament Championship game.  Both years they lost to LIU-Brooklyn, which is once again a viable scenario this season.  Also researching that led me to the box score that reminded me that Robert Morris took Villanova to overtime as a 15 seed three years ago which just goes to show that I don't know what the hell I'm talking about.
SLEEPER:  Bryant.  "Who?" is what your asking and I don't blame you.  As far back as 2008 Bryant was still in D-II before starting to transition to Division I.  Four terrible years later (20 total wins including 2 last year) here are the Bulldogs in their first season eligible for the NCAA Tournament and sitting at 12-6 in the conference (good for a number 2 seed).  Cool story, bro.
W's PICK:  Bryant.  It's too good of a story, although if they do make it and it gets crammed down our throats like everything else ESPN latches on too I'm going to regret rooting for this to happen.  The Bulldogs aren't just a novelty - they rank #1 in the NEC in offensive efficiency and have two 17+ ppg scorers who cover you on the perimeter and in the paint with three other 9+ point scorers.  They probably play too crappy on the defensive side to threaten anybody in the NCAA Tournament but as far as the NEC goes?  It's in play.  Sorry Robert Morris, maybe fourth time is the charm?

As far as Tuesday's results, Arkansas - a pretty big longshot as it stood - got crushed by Missouri which should take them out of the running for an at-large.  Southern Miss lost by just four to Marshall, but that pretty much kilt them as well.  Notre Dame probably sealed it with a win over St. Johns, while Iowa kept the dream alive by beating Illinois (who is probably safe either way).  In the big elimination game between Ole Miss and Alabama the Rebels took care of business, beating Bama by four in a game they basically controlled from the tip so they're still alive, while Memphis locked up their bid, if they hadn't already, by taking down UTEP on the road.  Meanwhile Boise State looked every bit a tournament team at UNLV, but because they didn't get the win they remain an absolutely difficult read. Just looking at season results and eye test they seem legit, but are about as hard on the bubble as possible.  Interesting team to watch.

Wednesday's action features a nice mix of teams who really could use a big win -  Villanova (vs. Georgetown), Iowa State (vs. Oklahoma State), Maryland (vs. UNC) - can lock up a bid with a win - Oklahoma (@ WVU), Cal (vs. Stanford), San Diego State (vs. Air Force), Minnesota (@ Nebraska) - and team's on shaky ground who can't afford a loss to an inferior opponent - Temple (@ Fordham), LaSalle (vs. G. Washington), and VCU (vs. Richmond).  In other words, there's a ton going on that could shift a whole bunch of teams a whole bunch of lines.  Should be fun night.  I'll spend it watching the Gophers instead.

DWG College Hoops Preview: Teams #33-26

Pablo Sandoval hits three home runs.  Barry Zito not only is unhittable, but also knocks in a run against probably the best pitcher of this generation.  Angel Pagan gets a double by hitting a routine bouncer that hits the third base bag.  Tim Lincecum strikes everyone out in a season where he's basically been a pitching machine.  Gregor Blanco can suddenly get to everything.  Call me crazy, but are you getting a vibe that the Giants stole that Cardinal October magic?  Good thing I got in on the Giants to win at +160 already.  I know I said I was going to be rooting for the Tigers and thought they were the better team, but so much money poured in on Detroit that the +160 for the Giants was too juicy to pass up.  Obviously.  Any way, I wrote some more previews while watching the game. 

33. Kansas State Wildcats.  You know, K-State has a pretty good thing going lately and have morphed into one of the most consistently athletic teams in the country year-after-year, and that's not going to change this season.  The Wildcats have most of last year's team back, including eight of their top nine scorers from last season, which means they'll most likely still be a god awful jump-shooting team (unless someone or someones went Eric Harris on it this offseason) but that's ok because they should make up for it, again, by being phenomenal at attacking the basket and grabbing a high percentage of all those bricks they throw up there.   Of course, they just hired Bruce Weber and since we all know a coaching match-up between Weber and paper bag would be a toss-up we can probably expect this nice little run by K-State to fall by the wayside as they descend into mediocrity once again and Weber moves on to destroy yet another program.

32.  St. Mary's Gaels.  I know what you're worrying about, and yes don't worry floppy haired uber Beiber dork Matthew Dellavedova is back for one more year.  And someone tell me if I'm totally crazy, but I'm getting a distinct Steve Nash vibe from this kid.  Think about it.  Floppy hair.  From a foreign country that speaks a weird brand of English.  Under the radar recruit who lands at a WCC school.  Immediate impact as a freshman, then end up getting progressively better, developing into one of the best PGs in the land, and single-handedly leading their team to upsets against bigger (and better) teams.  I really think we're in for a monster year from both Dellavedova and St. Mary's, if only to validate my Nash theory.  But if St. Mary's ends up making the Sweet 16 this year I'd start finding ways to bet YES on things like "Someday Matthew Dellavedova will win two NBA MVP awards."

31.  St. Louis Billikens.  St. Louis has been on a slow build since they hired Rick Majerus, so it'll be interesting to see if is absence (taking a year off for some kind of medical leave) hurts them, because this team has a chance to be very good this year.  It's actually kind of a an interesting case because they only lose one dude from last year's team, but it's the dude that was kind of their leader who did everything (1st in points, 2nd in rebs, 5th in assists, 4th in steals, 1st in FG%, 1st in FT%).  Talent-wise they're pretty loaded, but losing the head coach, the team leader, and now their best returning player, Kwamain Mitchell, is out for six weeks with a broken foot.  I don't know, that seems like a lot to deal with for a team who is supposed to be in good shape for this season.  Kind of makes me think of the Cincinnati Bengals for some reason.

30.  BYU Cougars.  It's always interesting how the Mormon faith impacts college hoops.  There's the scheduling, because BYU can't/won't play on Sundays which impacts the NCAA Tournament.  Brandon Davies got suspended for the season two years ago because he had sex and then admitted it to his coach.  And there's always the random Mormon mission that takes a player off the team mid-way through his career.  This time, however, BYU is actually getting a big boost, because Tyler Haws back.  Two seasons ago Haws averaged 11 points and 4 rebounds per game as a freshman and still has a 48-straight made free throw streak.  Getting a guy back who has already proven he can play is golden, and add Haws to a mix that includes the 6-11 Davies (15 & 8 last year) and point guard Matt Carlino (12 & 5) and BYU won't even miss the loss of a couple of seniors and should have no problem grabbing an NCAA bid.  Assuming everybody keeps their pants on, or at least has the common sense to not go running to their bishop about it.

29.  Drexel Dragons.  You know what's a really sweet team name?  Dragons.  Awesome.  Anyway, the Dragons, who are routinely one of the best defensive squads in the country, are set up for success this year.  The only lose one major contributor off last season's team that set a school record for victories, and with VCU now in the A-10 and Old Dominion ineligible for the conference title since they're bolting to C-USA after this season it's wide open for Drexel to take the league crown.  As I mentioned Drexel is always nails defensively, but last year's edition could actually score some points as well and a Dragon team that can score is pretty scary for somebody in round 1 of the tournament.  Like, scary like that Tiamat five-headed dragon from the Dungeons & Dragons cartoon.  Yes I watched it as a kid and it was awesome.  I also own a DVD with 10 episodes on it, what of it?  No you're the nerd.

28.  Wisconsin Badgers.  Ok, I've learned my lesson.  I don't know if it's my hatred of the Badgers because they're evil (I mean they even wear red, pay attention) or just because they're so boring, but every year I think the Badgers will be horrible and every year I'm wrong.  Look at this season - Jordan Taylor is gone and there isn't a player on the roster who looks like they can replace his production, even by committee.  Jared Berggren and Ryan Evans are the two best players coming back, and Evans should be a six man and Berggren is terrible.  Their top guards are going to be Ben Brust and Josh Gasser and neither of them scares anybody.  But of course, none of that matters.  They're going to play so slow it puts everyone to sleep, bore everyone to death, never turn the ball over, grab all the available rebounds, and win way more games than I'd ever expect.  Just like every year.  It's like an evil version of college basketball Groundhog Day.

27.  Marquette Golden Eagles.  At first when I was ranking teams off the top of my head I think I had Marquette in the 40s or 50s simply because losing both Jae Crowder and Darius Johnson-Odom to the NBA is a crusher, but when I did more reading I realized there is plenty still here to work with (plus counting out Buzz Williams is like counting on Bruce Weber).  Their back court is loaded with Junior Cadougan and Vander Blue, who is one of my favorite players because he has a sweet name, a sweet game, and he pissed on Wisconsin, and their returning leading scorer is a big man so they'll have a nice balance.  The back court should be their strength, but that doesn't mean their shooting - the three returning guards shot combined 48-162 from 3 last year and that will probably hold them back from being a truly dangerous team.  Still better than Wisconsin though.

26.  Ohio Bobcats.  You only need to know one thing - yes, D.J. Cooper is back.  You remember Cooper, right?  He's the guy who pretty much beat Georgetown two years ago and Michigan last year in the NCAA Tournament.  And he was pretty good against South Florida too, helping Ohio to the Sweet 16.  Yes, he's back and now a senior.  As is last year's second leading scorer Walter Offutt.  And #3 Reggie Keely.  #4 Nick Kellog is back too, but he's only a junior.  #5 Ivo Baltic is a senior though.  You see where I'm going with this?  The Bobcats have their top nine players back and all but one is a senior or junior.  The have top end talent in Cooper and Offutt.  And they must have a pretty good chemistry together because even though their coach left to take the Illinois job nobody transferred out.  This could be a very special year, which feels weird to say about a MAC team. Plus DJ Cooper makes me think of D.B. Cooper and that's awesome.   Of course since they are a MAC team, it's pretty likely if they don't win their conference tournament they don't go dancing at all.  Which would suck like Nick Blackburn.  Or Justin Verlander, I suppose.


Previous:
Teams #68-60
Teams #59-53
Teams #52-47 
Teams #46-39 
Teams #38-34

Week in Review - 02.21.2011

Well, we're in crunch time now, eh?  All that cushion, all that certainty, all that "should be in" stuff that the Gophers built up with those good wins over UNC and West Virginia is now gone and we are into do or die time.  It shouldn't be too much of an issue, because the next four aren't exactly going against world beaters:  Michigan State and Michigan at home, at Northwestern, and then back home against Penn State.  Win three - and they should win three - and they'll be 9-9, which, when combined with their non-conference wins and computer numbers would probably get them in.  Win all four, which is possible, and they're guaranteed in.  But win just 2, and you'll need a nice run in the B10 tournament.  Any less than that, and then turn out the lights - but not at Williams, because we'll be seeing a home game or two for the prestigious NIT.  Really, it's in the teams' hands and in their control.  Win the games you're supposed to win and you're in.  That's it.  Simple, really.  Practically guaranteed.  The Gophers would never let me down.

WHO WAS AWESOME

1.  Purdue Boilermakers.  I think beating the two best teams in your conference qualifies as having a pretty awesome week, and they certainly made their case that they, not Wisconsin, should be considered the second best team in the Big Ten.  Really, though, it doesn't get much more impressive than beating two top 10 ranked teams and conference foes at that, even if they were at home.  E'Twaun Moore had some big-time struggles in mid-season but he's hit his stride big time, hitting for at least 19 in his last four games, capping it off with a career high 38 against Ohio State on Sunday, a game in which he hit 13 of 18 shots and basically dominated the #1 team in the country or whatever they were ranked.  This is a whole different team when he's on (JaJuan Johnson is always on) and they pretty emphatically answered the question, "Who has Purdue really beaten?"  Big Ten actually looking pretty good for possibly three Sweet 16 teams.  But probably zero.

2.  Jake Pullen.  There's little doubt who picked up the biggest win of the week, even if it was way back on Monday night and already feels like it happened a long time ago.  K-State was basically drifting aimlessly, having taken their preseason top 10 (top 5?) ranking and basically pissed it away thanks to complacency and a crazy amount of turnovers, but there's never been any doubt they were talented.  Thanks to Pullen, who scored 38 in that big win over Kansas and followed up with 27 more in a blowout win over Oklahoma, they may be making a late push towards an NCAA bid.  ESPN's bracketology had them as a 10 seed after they beat the Jayhawks, with some late success - like a home win over Mizzou - they could end up a 6 or so seed.  Talk about a dangerous 6 seed, wow.

3.  The Colonial Athletic Conference.  There were four big winners in Bracket Busters:  George Mason, Virginia Commonwealth, Old Dominion, and Utah State.  All four of those teams picked up a quality win, which means each of them moved that much closer to grabbed an at-large bid.  Notice anything three of those teams have in common?  Yep, GMU, VCU, and ODU are all members of the CAA, and they TCB ASAP FYI, and can probably now RSVP for NCAA MM, although if either of them go FUBAR and lose to an inferior opponent they'll probably drop to the wrong side of the bubble, but right now it's actually looking fairly likely that the CAA will end up with three bids.  That's awesome. 

4. Cincinnati Bearcats.  You know how it seems like the Big Ten teams who are right on the edge of getting a bid seem to just play like garbage (Illinois, Minnesota, Northwestern)?  Teams from the Big East apparently don't subscribe to that style of perpetual disappointment, and Cincy is the latest team from that conference to go from outside the bubble to inside with a very nice week.  First they beat Louisville at home, and in convincing fashion, and then they followed it up by winning a very tough trap game @ Providence, going into overtime before blowing the Friars out by 12.  That moves them to 8-6 now in conference play, and that's big because their last four games are all very tough (@G-Town, UCONN, @ Marquette, G-Town).  This sets them up where they only need to win one of the four to get in.  Still not easy by any means, but if they can't win at least one of those four they don't really deserve it anyway.

5.  NBA All-Star Game.  I'm just kidding, I'm not retarded enough to watch that crap.  

5.  Tu Holloway.  Even though it's pretty retarded to change your name from Terrell to Tu I love this guy anyway. He notched a triple-double on Saturday in a surprisingly competitive game against Fordham, tallying 26 points, 11 rebounds, and 10 assists.  And he did it with zero turnovers and 8-11 shooting from the floor.  That's ridiculous.  That has to be one of the most efficient games of all-time.  I assume there is someway to look that up, but I'm drunk and tired and I'm not going to do it.  Somebody do it for me.  That's what the comments are for.  Let's assume our lists is 1.  That Bill Walton game, 2.  That christian laettner game, and 3.  Holloway's triple-double.  What else?


WHO SUCKED


1.  St. Mary's Gaels.  If there was an award for most effective killing of your at-large chances in a single week, St. Mary's would stand an awful good chance at winning that award this year, and possibly even for the entire decade.  They started the week in "almost certainly in" status, lost to a terrible, terrible, terrible San Diego team which knocked them to "probably out" status, and then blew there big chance to jump back in, losing at home to Utah State.  With Gonzaga so down this year it's difficult for the Gaels to get quality wins and as of right now their early season win over St. John's is the only real impressive win on their resume.  If they can close with home wins over Gonzaga and Portland, two of the better teams in the league, they would end up at 14-2 in WCC play.  I would guess if they can then at least get to the final in the conference tournament that would probably get them in, but man, did they ever plummet down the S-curve.


2.  Virginia Tech Hokies.  Oopsies.  Honestly, as frustrating as it is to be a Gopher fan - and it's damn frustrating let me tell you what - being a Hokie fan would be a nightmare.  Two straight years of being just barely on the wrong side of the bubble due to softer than Ralph Sampson non-conference scheduling, followed this year by a much better schedule which resulted in losing nearly every meaningful non-conf game and now probably losing one too many conference games they really couldn't afford to lose after dropping a game to Virginia on Saturday.  That gives the Hokies five conference losses:  Virginia, Georgia Tech, BC, UNC, and Virginia - yes, they were swept by Virginia.  Take those two losses plus the GT loss and they're going to need to basically be perfect from here on.  Hopefully not though because their coach is a douche. 


3.  Missouri Valley Conference.  If the MVC wasn't already a one-bid league, it certainly is now as Bracket Busters was not kind to teams from the Valley.  Or, more accurately, teams from the Valley just plain sucked.  Northern Iowa, who needed a win to have a shot at a bid, lost to George Mason (at home).  Wichita State, who needed a win to have a shot at a bid, lost to VCU (at home).  Missouri State, who needed a win to have a shot at a bid, lost to Valpo.  Actually, nine MVC teams played in Bracket Busters this weekend and they managed just three total wins, none of which came from teams with post-season aspirations outside of a possible NIT berth.  Just a terrible showing overall.  This feels more like something the Twins would do.  Somehow.   

4.  Duquesne Dukes.  Oh Duquesne you're breaking my heart.  A surprisingly hot start in Atlantic 10 play had the Dukes at 8-0 and atop conference play, but even more exciting they were looking like a fringe bubble candidate for an at-large bid.  It would be their first appearance since 1977 and behind a potent offense and a stingy defense they looked legit.  Of course, they did nothing in non-conference play so their margin of error was small, and it's now non-existent after they lost to American's most hated team, the Dayton Flyers, a game they led by six late before letting the evil Flyers go on a 10-0 run.  That's now the Dukes third loss in four games with Xavier being the only loss that didn't hurt.  Now Duquesne will need to win the A-10 tournament to make a bid.  I'm sure that will happen.

5.  Baylor Bears.  Well that ought to do it.  Although you could definitely argue that Michigan State or Kansas State are the most disappointing teams this season they are both still alive for an NCAA Tournament berth.  The same can't be said for Baylor anymore, who completely what can only be described as a four-month long dump on their own shoes by losing by 9 to Texas Tech.  AT HOME.  That's Texas Tech, record 12-15, Big 12 record 4-8, and RPI 139.  That's unforgivable.  Although that actually might not even be Baylor's worst loss this year, because they also dropped games to Oklahoma (12-13 (4-8), #132) and Iowa State (14-13 (1-11), #147.  Any one of those losses would be enough to cast a pretty big shadow on their chances in March.  Combine the three, and they're cooked.  Looks like I was right that their 30-1 number to win the championship was way off.  Just turns out I was wrong in the wrong direction.


I didn't have room for him here because too many teams shit the bed this week, but I also want to point out that Durrell Summers shot all of 1-8 this entire week (two games), mainly because in their game against Ohio State he was so bad he only played 16 minutes and in the game against Illinois he shot 1-7.  He should probably just quit and transfer.  I hear Ames is quite nice.

Want to know what else sucks?  When you think you put down on Aaron Baddeley to win the Northern Trust Open at 66-1, and you think you meant to because you specifically checked each book you have an account at to find the best odds. And then you watch the tournament all week and see he's in contention, and then when he's up 2 with just 2 holes to go and you pretty much have the win in the bag you go to check on what the exact amount you're about to win is and it turns out someway, somehow that bet isn't there and you can't blame anybody but yourself because you know damn well you were drinking Wednesday night and probably completely spaced on hitting "confirm" that final time.

FML.

Sweet 16 Preview

I know you're probably sick of reading about it by now, but this is a really fascinating Sweet 16 this year.  You have a little bit of everything.  You've got eleven different conferences represented.  You've got your small conference upstarts (Northern Iowa, Cornell, St. Mary's), your big conference upstarts (Kansas State, Baylor), your small conference dynasties (Xavier, Butler), your traditional powers (Kentucky, Duke, Syracuse), your underachieving squads starting to put it together (Tennessee, Washington), team's dealing with injuries old (Purdue) and new (Michigan State, West Virginia), and the best team god ever assembled (Ohio State).

You've got the two best players this year (John Wall, Evan Turner), media darlings (Omar Samhan), precious little white boys with a hometown angle (Ryan Wittman), transfers who flourished (Denis Clemente, Ekpe Udoh, Jordan Crawford), cheaters (John Calipari, Bob Huggins), slime balls (Coach K, Calipari), and spazzes (Izzo, Frank Martin).  You've got lightning quick guards (Jake Pullen, Isaiah Thomas, Terrell Holloway), do-it-all wings (Durrell Summers, David Lighty, Wes Johnson, Devin Ebanks), dead-eye shooters (Farokhmanesh, Jon Scheyer, Scotty Hopson), and monster big men (JaJuan Johnson, Matt Howard, DeMarcus Cousins).

Seriously, I'm really fired up for these next four days.  It should be awesome.  Here are my picks, gambling-wise, ranked from least amount of units vs. most amount of units wagered.

WEST VIRGINIA -4 vs. WASHINGTON:  I'm more than a bit surprised that I'm not more confident in the Mountaineers, but I think the injury to Truck Bryant is going to play a bigger role than you'd think in this particular match up.  WVU has zero answer for Isaiah Thomas, and he can completely control the tempo of a game, as New Mexico found out.  Since WVU likes to play a slower-paced game, that could become an issue.  Still, in the end, Washington doesn't have the athletes to play with WVU beyond Thomas and Quincy Pondexter, so they'll probably run out of gas in the end - assuming Huggy Bear doesn't orchestrate another one of his teams' patented choke jobs.  THE PICK:  West Virginia -4, 1 Unit

SYRACUSE -7 vs. BUTLER:  Another tough game to read.  One of the ways Butler beats more athletic, more talented teams is by being so fundamentally sound, but this year's Syracuse team won as many games as they did by being equally fundamentally sound.  Still, I doubted Butler this year, and that waxing they put on a very good UTEP team tells me I might have underestimated them.  I expect this to be a pretty hard fought, low-scoring affair between two good teams, and in that kind of situation you go with the points.  THE PICK:  Butler +7, 1 Unit (Bonus Pick:  UNDER 138.5, 1 Unit)

DUKE -8 vs. PURDUE:  Not really sure how to call this one.  Duke is the better team, and Purdue can't win on emotion forever, but there are some reasons to believe in Purdue here.  With or without Hummel, they are a very tough defensive squad.  Couple that with a Duke team that relies monster-heavily on the three-pointer for the offense, and one cold night, whether because Duke can't hit or because of tough Purdue defense and the door is suddenly open for an upset.  With the Johnson and Moore it's possible, since they're tough match ups for Duke, and if Kramer can get under Scheyer's skin it could be a long night.  Something tells me this is either going to be a blow out or a Purdue upset, so the spread does me no good.  THE PICK:  Purdue to Win @ +340, 1 Unit.

KANSAS STATE -5 vs. XAVIER:  If you've read this blog leading up to the tournament, you know I'm a big fan of Xavier this year, and not a believer in Kansas State, so this pick is pretty easy.  Nothing has really changed through two rounds, since X has looked good in their two wins while K-State has been less than overwhelming.  Still, any team with two good guards is a danger at this point, so I can't go to heavy.  THE PICK:  Xavier +5, 3 Units (Bonus Pick:  OVER 152, 1 Unit)


OHIO STATE -4.5 vs. TENNESSEE:  The Vols are the kind of team who have been up-and-down all year, and now that they're in the Sweet 16 they probably have you thinking they have it all together now.  Well you're wrong.  They barely beat a San Diego State team that barely bothered to show up, and then lucked into a second round game against the least deserving team in the field in Ohio, and couldn't really get it going until the second half against them.  No my friends, the Vols are doing this with smoke and mirrors and they are about to be exposed.  If you really feel the need to gamble on Tennessee, take the money line, because they have just as good a chance at winning as they do at covering 4.5.  THE PICK:  Ohio State -4.5, 3 Units (Bonus Pick:  OVER 134, 2 Units)

KENTUCKY -9 vs. CORNELL:  I feel a bit weird here, because part of me says that Cornell just got lucky, matching up against two slow-it down, grind it out, non-super-athletic, non-super-quick teams, but another part of me says that this is the kind of team that could take the youngsters on Kentucky completely out of their game.  And it's not like Trevon Hughes or Jordan Taylor are slow.  Not to mention, and I hate referencing something that happened in January and was a loss, but they did hang with Kansas right up until the end and that's a pretty athletic team.  I think this is going to be a fascinating game.  In the end, Kansas probably wins, but those are a lot of points, and Cornell seems to be all business right now.  They don't think they're done yet.  THE PICK:  Cornell +9, 3 Units

BAYLOR -4 vs. ST MARY'S:  I'm still not 100% convinced Baylor is all that terrific, but I think more than anything the Gaels are riding easy matchups.  Well, by beating overrated teams, at least.  Richmond had me convinced, but they didn't even come close to coming close to showing up, and it was clear to everyone, pre-bracket even, that there was no way in hell Villanova was a legit 2-seed.  Maybe more than anything else, and I'm going to bring this up again later, but did it sort of feel like St. Mary's won their Super Bowl already?  Not to mention that Baylor is the same team as St. Mary's, but only if St. Mary's got an upgrade.  Good interior player - but Udoh is better than Samhan - surrounded by good perimeter players - but Baylor's guards are head and shoulders better than St. Mary's guards.  It's hard to see how St. Mary's keeps this much of a game, Baylor should win by ten.  Oh, and the game is in Houston, so it's pretty much a home game.  THE PICK:  Baylor -4, 5 Units (Bonus Pick:  OVER 143, 1 Unit)

MICHIGAN STATE -1.5 vs. NORTHERN IOWA:  Ok, tell me this line isn't fishy and media driven.  First, Kalin Lucas is hurt, and it's being played up as a big story.  Second, UNI just knocked off the major favorite in the tournament, and everyone knows it and can't stop talking about it.  These two facts alone have probably swung this line by about two points.  And there's more.  UNI's coach just agreed to a 10-year deal a couple of days ago, while the tournament is still going on.  Farokhmanesh is the darling of the tournament - hell, the whole team is the darling of the tournament.  It just feels like they're good and done and fat and happy and basking in the glow right now.  Meanwhile, Tom Izzo, notorious advancer in NCAA tournaments, has the team locked down in the gym, going over the game plan without Lucas over and over and over, and making sure his team knows that they haven't accomplished jack shit just yet.  Not to mention Bill Self has clearly established himself as the kind of guy who makes chocking out of the tournament into a routine, while Izzo is the complete opposite, and this feels like the line should be more like 7.  THE PICK:  Michigan State -1.5, 8 Units


I know my bracket picks haven't been doing that well (although I still have all my final four teams left), but the gambling has been successful thus far, so I highly recommend that you follow these picks blindly.

Let's Not Screw This Up

If you're reading this blog you're either woefully lost or a Gopher basketball fan, and as such you know what's going on tomorrow.

The Gophers play Northwestern in the first round of the Big Ten tournament, in what is, in all likelihood, a must win for the Golden Gophers if they still want to get into the NCAA tournament. Is it possible they get in even with a loss. Yes, although unlikely. A win doesn't necessarily guarantee a bid, but I don't imagine a scenario in which they would get snubbed after a victory over the Wildcats - a top 100 RPI team.

You pretty much know what you're getting with Northwestern. A slow team - both of foot and in terms of pace - but with a quick, penetrating point guard. A 1-3-1 zone on one end, and a patient, methodical offense that relies heavily upon the three pointer on the other. Given the Gophers relative success against the Michigan 1-3-1, I am more confident this time around, although Northwestern does it better than the Wolverines. This is the third matchup between the two teams, with the games being split. However, if you look at it by halves, the Gophers won 3 of the 4. They outscored Northwestern in three halves by a combined 106-76, including winning the most recent game by a comfortable margin 72-45. Based on comparative resumes and the games against each other this year, as well as overall talent level and coaching (kind of starting to question this one though), I'd be inclined to pick the Gophers.

However.

The Gophers need to turn the other team over to win, and Northwestern doesn't turn it over. The Gophers are vulnerable against the three-pointer, and the Wildcats rely on it to win. The Gophers turn it over a lot, and Northwestern is good at forcing turnovers. The only numbers in the Gophers favor are that they block a lot of shots and NW gets their shot blocked a lot, and the Gophers are good at grabbing offensive rebounds while Northwestern is horrible at stopping them. That's not enough.

Northwestern 53, Minnesota 47 - but look on the bright side - we got our NIT tickets in the mail the other day.


Whatever. Yesterday Providence got the win they needed over DePaul after coming back, setting up a huge game for the Friars against Louisville today. If they lose, they're out. If they win, they might still be out but it would probably be enough to get them a bid. West Virginia ended Notre Dame's hope at a miracle run, and Texas Tech got an incredible 43 points from Mike Singletary (season average = 11), including 29 in a row, to upset Texas A&M in the first round of the Big 12. A&M is probably ok here, but things got a bit more nervous around College Station, while Oklahoma State probably punched their ticket with a first round win over Iowa State. And congratulations to Portland State and Robert Morris who won their conference tournaments and are heading to the dance.

Today, other than the Gopher game and the Providence game, we have plenty of bubble implications happening. Miami and V-Tech square off in a first round ACC game that is a bubble elimination game, although the winner might have to win in the second round too - same deal with UNLV vs. San Diego State in the MWC. Arizona can probably get in with a win, but they face a better team and their main rival in Arizona State. And in various tournaments, Michigan, Kentucky, Penn State, Temple, Rhode Island, Kansas State, Utah State, Maryland, Boston College, Florida, and New Mexico all think they still have a chance, and all have to win today.

Conference Previews:



BIG TEN: As mentioned above, the Gophers are just one of several teams here trying to grab a spot in the tournament, with Michigan State, Illinois, and Purdue the only locks. Penn State probably needs two wins, while the Gophers and Michigan need one. Wisconsin and Ohio State are very likely in even with a loss (and they play each other).
FAVORITE: Michigan State. The class of the conference. Purdue is still better than they've played so far, but the Spartans are the clear favorite.
SLEEPER: Penn State. They terrify me. With road wins over Michigan State and Illinois, they've shown they can beat anybody in the conference anywhere - how many other Big Ten teams would you say that about? With the good guard play they have, they have a chance.
W's PICK: Purdue. I feel like this is when the Boilers really turn it on.
WHO GETS IN?: Michigan State, Purdue, Illinois, Michigan, Minnesota, Ohio State, Wisconsin



ATLANTIC COAST: The best conference in the land from top-to-bottom. The Big East may be top heavier, but there really are no bad teams in the ACC (well, G-Tech and Virginia aren't very good - Go Gophers). BC, Maryland, Virginia Tech, and Miami are all still fighting for an NCAA berth.
FAVORITE: North Carolina. The Heels were pretty much the consensus favorite to win the National Championship at the beginning of the year, and not much has changed. An injury to Marcus Ginyard hurt their depth, and a few minor hiccups in ACC knocked them out of the #1 spot, but they're back and probably still the favorite to win.
SLEEPER: Boston College. The Eagles are on the bubble and close to the top of it, but still need at least a win. With wins over Duke and UNC earlier in the year, and a guard like Tyrese Rice who could have a Randolph Childress-like performance, they could surprise.
W's PICK: UNC. Even with Ty Lawson banged up, I think they are head and shoulders above everybody else. Duke, Clemson, and Wake are all good, but I not to UNC's level.
WHO GETS IN?: UNC, Duke, Clemson, Florida State, Boston College



SOUTHEASTERN: In the weakest year I can remember for the SEC, only LSU and Tennessee can feel good about their NCAA chances. Florida, South Carolina, and even Auburn are still fighting to get in, but the SEC may end up with only two bids this year.
FAVORITE: LSU. More by default than anything else, I don't think the Tigers are all that good but they rolled through conference play with a 13-3 record. There's really not much there in the non-conference, so who knows how good they really are. Marcus Thornton and Tasmin Mitchell are a good 1-2 punch, but center Chris Johnson, who got a lot of press after making huge leaps in his game last year, has regressed.
SLEEPER: Auburn. In a bad conference, a hot, somewhat decent team can make a run and win the whole thing. In the SEC's case, a horrible team can as shown by Georgia last year. Auburn comes in having won 8 of their last 9, including a win over LSU.
W's PICK: Tennessee. Built much more like a tournament team, I think the Vols roll.
WHO GETS IN?: LSU, Tennessee, South Carolina, Florida



SOUTHLAND: Remember when Northwestern State beat Iowa in the first round? That was awesome.
FAVORITE: Stephen F. Austin. That's a college, not a person
SLEEPER: McNeese State. Only 5-11 in the conference, but they beat SFA once.
W's PICK: Northwestern State. Maybe this time they can beat Wisconsin.


TOMORROW: Things keep going in the major conferences, and we get our Patriot Conference champ in a game between #1 American and #2 Holy Cross. Additionally there will be plenty of games with bubble implications going on in the various tournaments across the land. The most interesting might be St. Mary's vs. Eastern Washington. The Gaels scheduled this as more of a tune-up for recently returned star Patrick Mills than anything else, but St. Mary's is right on the middle of the bubble and Eastern Washington is #234 in the RPI. A win does nothing for their profile (although might help get Mills ready for the tournament) but a loss would almost certainly put them out. It's a calculated risk, and could backfire in a big way - but probably not, E Wash is awful.