It's March, which means it's time for madness, which kicks off with smaller conference tournaments beginning later tonight with the Atlantic Sun, Horizon, and Patriot. I didn't do it last year, but every other year (so many years) I've written this blog I've done little conference tournament previews because I think conference tournaments are almost as good as the NCAA Tournament. Ok, they're not, but they're a great little warm-up with wall-to-wall action for two weeks including day games, and everyone knows day games are the best things to gamble on. I figured now that I'm participating in The Jerome this year (a thing where a whole bunch of college basketball nerds try to pick the winner of every conference tournament), I might as well bring them back. So here is the return of the Award Winning DWG Conference Tournament previews, starting with the tourneys kicking off tonight. (FYI - collegebasketballtalk.nbcsports.com has nice breakdowns of these as well).
ATLANTIC SUN:
The Atlantic Sun is on a nice little streak of success. Mercer beat Duke last year in the tournament, which ruled, and Florida Gulf Coast, #DunkCity, made that nifty little sweet sixteen two seasons ago. Whoever comes out of this bracket could surprise again as the conference netted wins over Purdue, UMASS, and Georgia Tech this year.
FAVORITE: North Florida. The Ospreys own that win over Purdue, and they stomped through the league to a 12-2 mark. They're also the only team in the conference with a Top 100 efficiency mark on either end of the floor according to kenpom.com (#69 offensive eff.). The only other team to hit double digit wins in the A-Sun, Florida Gulf Coast at 11-3, lost twice to North Florida, both times by double digits.
SLEEPER: USC Upstate. Just 8-6 in the conference, the Spartans weren't all that impressive this year except for the fact that they swept North Florida and were the only A-Sun team to beat the Ospreys. They also have the conference's leading scorer in Ty Greene (20.1ppg) who absolutely went off on North Florida this year (32ppg in the two contests). They're on the other side of the bracket and will have to survive a tough matchup against FGCU to get there, but no way does UNF want to see these guys again.
THE PICK: North Florida. It's so tempting to take Gulf Coast. It would be a great story since they have still have two players, now seniors, from that Sweet 16 team who would love to make a run again. Unfortunately the Eagle offense just hasn't been that good this year, and the A-Sun setup, where the higher seed gets home court, swings this one North Florida's way. Add in the season sweep by the Ospreys and I just can't do it.
HORIZON LEAGUE:
This used to be one of the premier mid-majors conferences in the land, but Butler's jump to the Big East along with down trends and once dangerous schools like Valpo, Cleveland State, Oakland, and Wright State have taken off some of the shine. The only real good win the entire conference had in non-conference play was Green Bay's over Miami (could include Valpo over Murray State, too).
FAVORITE: Valparaiso. The Crusaders won the top seed with a 13-3 record, and as such have home court throughout the tournament (as long as they're alive) and a bye directly into the semifinals (so did second seeded Green Bay).
SLEEPER: Oakland. The Grizzlies had a pretty terrible non-conference run going 5-10 including some really bad losses, but they also packed in plenty of tough games which gave them the #12 toughest non-conference schedule in the country. They turned it around in conference play going 11-5, including 10-3 to close out the season. With two of the league's first team all-conference players on board they're dangerous.
THE PICK: Green Bay. The bye into the semis is so valuable that this pick basically comes down to Valpo or Green Bay, and I'm going Phoenix based on their defense (#32 in the country) and 2-point offense (52.4%, 30th in the country). The can't win a shootout since they can't and don't shoot 3s (7th lowest % of points from 3s in the country), but that defense should keep them close enough to play their game no matter who they play.
PATRIOT LEAGUE:
I think I pimped this book, The Last Amateurs, every time I've written about the Patriot League but it's really good even if it's not really all that relevant anymore (I think they have athletic scholarships now). It's still a good book. Anyway, Bucknell won the conference number 1 seed which seems like a pretty common occurrence without looking it up, but they weren't dominant with 5 conference losses and the Patriot is pretty wide open.
FAVORITE: Bucknell. Like I said, they took down the regular season conference title and that gives them the #1 seed and home court throughout, a place they only lost once in conference play. They lost by just seven against Villanova and eight against Penn State this year, so when things are going well they're a good team. When they're not, however, they're capable of losing to Siena and Mount St. Mary's. Weird team in a weird conference.
SLEEPER: Lehigh. They have kenpom's conference player of the year in Tim Kempton who averaged 15.1 points and 8.6 rebounds per game this year, and they could be blossoming at the right time. Their last 3 conference games were a blowout of league winner Bucknell and two close losses to the 2nd place and 4th place teams in the league.
THE PICK: Colgate. Eighth in the country in effective field goal percentage, which will happen when you shoot 40% from three and 53% from two, both top 20 marks in the nation. The defense is really shaky, but the Raiders went 7-1 against the four other top-5 teams in Patriot League play so as long as they can avoid laying an egg against Army or Navy, two bad teams that beat them in the regular season, in round 2 I like their chances. Three of their top four scorers are guards, which is always a good thing in March.
Tomorrow the American East, Big South, Northeast, and Ohio Valley get going. Stop back for more!
Showing posts with label Bucknell. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Bucknell. Show all posts
Tuesday, March 3, 2015
Tuesday, March 5, 2013
Gophers vs. Huskers Preview + Wednesday Tournaments
The Gophers play Nebraska in Lincoln, and although some of the pressure has been alleviated by the wins over Indiana and Penn State, which locked the Gophers into the NCAA Tournament, they can still close strong and get maybe as high as a 3 seed, or crash and end up around a 10. My hope is they get to a six to avoid the 1-2 seed in the second round if they advance, and I think two more wins would do it - whether the last two regular season games or one of them and a B10 tournament win - so this is still a pretty important game.
Since the last time the Gophers played Nebraska the Huskers have gone 2-5 with the two wins home games vs. Iowa and Penn State. In that time they've also played Ohio State and Michigan State at home, losing both by less than ten (7 and 9) so they're not exactly a juggernaut, but road games in the Big 10 are never easy even if Nebraska doesn't really have any impressive home upsets to point to.
Overall Nebraska is a pretty terrible team. They don't do anything particularly well other than take care of the basketball, are thoroughly mediocre on defense, and area terrible shooting team. You remember when the Gophers smoked them at Williams, right? The talent disparity between the two teams is glaring, and the only thing that kept Nebraska at all in the game (and the Gophers won by 19) was Ray Gallegos going coo-coo from three and scoring 30 points. Could that happen again but like, way more dramatic? I suppose, but Gallegos has only scored more than 11 points once in the seven games since then, everyone else on Nebraska sucks, and the Gophers look like they've finally figured things out again. If you're going to have a lull like the Gophers did, have it in the middle of the season, not the end. I choose to believe they're back.
Minnesota 70, Nebraska 53
Now on to Wednesday's tournaments.
ATLANTIC SUN
Another pretty terrible conference like the Big South, but the one thing the A-Sun has going for it is two dominant teams in Mercer and Florida Gulf Coast who are both in the top two in the conference in both offensive and defensive efficiency. When you're dealing with a low major you can forget about having a balanced, deep league and you just have to hope you have a squad or two that is good enough to grab some name recognition by beating, or at least scaring, its first round NCAA foe. Both these teams have a least a chance.
FAVORITE: Mercer. The Bears take the one seed by a game over FGC, but I'm not sure they're the better team. The Bears have a nice non-conference win over Florida State, but FGC beat Miami. Both come in hot with Mercer finishing out at 9-1 and the Eagles at 9-2, and the Eagles won their last meeting last week by 3. This is one of those conference tournaments where if the favorites win out and Mercer meets FGC in the Final it will be worth your time to watch. Probably.
SLEEPER: North Florida. Well, probably not, but they do have Will Wilson, who you may remember as the point guard who never ever ever scores. You will be happy to know that Wilson, who played 31.5 minutes per game this year, upped his scoring average to 3.6 per game, a career high, while upping his assists to 6.1 per game. His total points this season were 112, nearly doubling his career point total which stood at 121 coming into the year. And he did, in fact, finally break double figures in a game this year notching 13 against Jacksonville so congratulations. Will Wilson, we salute you.
W's PICK: Florida Gulf Coast. The Eagles are just more tested, having played four tournament teams this year (Miami, Duke, Iowa State, VCU) while Mercer has just New Mexico. Granted that all happened a long time ago and is pretty much irrelevant, but like I said, it's awfully tough to separate these teams.
PATRIOT LEAGUE
I know you're thinking whoopity-doo another terrible conference and you're right, but you're also sort of wrong too. This might be the best version of the Patriot League I can recall (although they're still ranked as just the 17th best conference by kenpom). Bucknell and Lehigh are top 100 teams with two others in the 100s and only Navy falling past #300. Might not sound like much, but it's a step in the right direction and you can see the difference finally allowing athletic scholarships can make.
FAVORITE: Bucknell. Unfortunately C.J. McCollum broke his foot in a game against VCU this winter (a game Lehigh lost by only four) so the Bison won the league crown and the #1 seed. That's not a slam on Bucknell, who are a very good team with wins over Purdue and LaSalle this season, it's just a bummer because most of the Lehigh team that beat Duke was back this year and McCollum is an amazing player. Even so, Bucknell's Mike Muscala is a stud as well who averaged a double-double while leading the conference in scoring and rebounding, and if the Bison get through they're absolutely a threat to steal a win in the tournament.
SLEEPER: Army. The Black Knights play at a pace considerably fast than anyone else in the Patriot and do so while shooting, and making, a ton of three pointers. That's the kind of team I like for a sleeper.
W's PICK: Bucknell. If McCollum returns from injury (even as of 3 days ago, the most recent article I could find, things are still up in the air) things get more interesting, but if he doesn't I expect Bucknell to run the table pretty easily.
OHIO VALLEY
Belmont moving in to the OVC was supposed to create a two-headed monster at the top of the conference with the Bruins and Murray State. The only problem was the Racers didn't hold up their end of the bargain, whiffing on their only real out of conference chance to get a big win against Colorado (and what a horrible schedule they put together) and going just 10-6 in conference. Belmont still has an outside chance at an at-large given good computer numbers and a 14-2 conference record but it's an outside shot at best and the OVC will most likely remain a one-bid league.
FAVORITE: Belmont. These guys have been relevant long enough that I can even tell you their two best players without looking it up - Ian Clark and Kerron Johnson - a pair of senior guards who have been this team's leaders forever. Their are three other upperclassmen starters as well and those five play the majority of the team's minutes and basically score all their points. They've been in the last two NCAA Tournaments but haven't broken through for a win yet. With that experience now could this be the year.
SLEEPER: Eastern Kentucky. Given Murray State's rough year and not even ranking in kenpom's Top 25 they might be a more appropriate sleeper than EKU - the team that finished with the second best record in the league and only team in the top 2 in both O and D efficiency in the OVC - but I'm pretty sure Murray is still the sexier pick since the media has bludgeoned us all over the head with them for years. The Colonels create a ton of turnovers but don't defend all that well, which is generally death to teams who play the Bruins. Still, they've probably got the best shot to knock them off.
W's PICK: Belmont. I feel like I'm picking a lot of favorites, but that's kind of how it works in these conferences. Also, to answer my earlier rhetorical question, no it's not the year. Belmont won't win an NCAA Tournament game again.
WEST COAST CONFERENCE
A pretty uninteresting conference tournament but in an interesting way. There are two possible NCAA teams here: Gonzaga (locked in, possible #1 seed) and St. Mary's (right on the bubble). What St. Mary's could really use is another quality win, but the only way to get one at this point in the WCC is to beat Gonzaga. However, because of their seeds, beating Gonzaga is only possible in the WCC Tournament Final, which would put the Gaels in automatically. So either St. Mary's wins their way in, or they've already done enough to get the invite. Uninteresting in an interesting way, which is what I said if you had been paying attention.
FAVORITE: Gonzaga. Although the WCC is far better than a lot of other conferences I have or will be previewing (ranking 10th) there might not be a more prohibitive favorite in any conference than Gonzaga. The Zags are in line for a possible #1 seed, are 16-0 in conference play, and rank as the #4 team in the country according to kenpom. Sure, St. Mary's (rank #19), BYU (#71), and Santa Clara (#87) are quality teams with their eyes on the upset, but Gonzaga has crushed all three of these teams this year.
SLEEPER: San Francisco. It's not easy to pick a sleeper here when the top four just beat up on each other and killed everyone else (between the four good teams only three of their losses came to other teams) so I'll go with the team that picked up one of those (over BYU) and has an interesting statistical profile. The Dons, who are coached by Rex Walters which feels relevant for some reason, hit 40.2% of their three pointers this year, good for 9th best in the nation. So that's something. Although the way the WCC sets things up it's almost guaranteed to be either Gonzaga or St. Mary's coming out of here.
W's PICK: St. Mary's. This isn't an indictment of Gonzaga, because I do think they're a Final Four contender who deserves a one seed, but St. Mary's is going to be playing as if their lives depend on it in this game - and their tournament lives very well might. I think they're flying under the radar a bit, especially since Gonzaga swept them, and I don't want to have to stop watching Matthew Dellavedova yet. If loving that floppy haired little muppet is wrong I don't want to be right.
NORTHEASTERN CONFERENCE
You want to talk about a conference only a mother could love, let's go with the NEC. They're consistently ranked in the bottom quartile for conference strength, and if you look at the list of teams I don't know that they've ever even been close in an NCAA Tournament game, much less won one. There are a handful of other conferences who can never rise out of the bottom of the barrel as a whole, but outside of the SWAC I can recall each one of those conferences at least being competitive with many of them actually winning games here and there. Not so the NEC. Where have you gone, Charles Jones?
FAVORITE: Robert Morris. The closest thing the NEC puts out as a power program, the Colonials have missed the NCAA Tournament each of the last two seasons despite winning at least 12 conference games each year and advancing to the NEC Tournament Championship game. Both years they lost to LIU-Brooklyn, which is once again a viable scenario this season. Also researching that led me to the box score that reminded me that Robert Morris took Villanova to overtime as a 15 seed three years ago which just goes to show that I don't know what the hell I'm talking about.
SLEEPER: Bryant. "Who?" is what your asking and I don't blame you. As far back as 2008 Bryant was still in D-II before starting to transition to Division I. Four terrible years later (20 total wins including 2 last year) here are the Bulldogs in their first season eligible for the NCAA Tournament and sitting at 12-6 in the conference (good for a number 2 seed). Cool story, bro.
W's PICK: Bryant. It's too good of a story, although if they do make it and it gets crammed down our throats like everything else ESPN latches on too I'm going to regret rooting for this to happen. The Bulldogs aren't just a novelty - they rank #1 in the NEC in offensive efficiency and have two 17+ ppg scorers who cover you on the perimeter and in the paint with three other 9+ point scorers. They probably play too crappy on the defensive side to threaten anybody in the NCAA Tournament but as far as the NEC goes? It's in play. Sorry Robert Morris, maybe fourth time is the charm?
As far as Tuesday's results, Arkansas - a pretty big longshot as it stood - got crushed by Missouri which should take them out of the running for an at-large. Southern Miss lost by just four to Marshall, but that pretty much kilt them as well. Notre Dame probably sealed it with a win over St. Johns, while Iowa kept the dream alive by beating Illinois (who is probably safe either way). In the big elimination game between Ole Miss and Alabama the Rebels took care of business, beating Bama by four in a game they basically controlled from the tip so they're still alive, while Memphis locked up their bid, if they hadn't already, by taking down UTEP on the road. Meanwhile Boise State looked every bit a tournament team at UNLV, but because they didn't get the win they remain an absolutely difficult read. Just looking at season results and eye test they seem legit, but are about as hard on the bubble as possible. Interesting team to watch.
Wednesday's action features a nice mix of teams who really could use a big win - Villanova (vs. Georgetown), Iowa State (vs. Oklahoma State), Maryland (vs. UNC) - can lock up a bid with a win - Oklahoma (@ WVU), Cal (vs. Stanford), San Diego State (vs. Air Force), Minnesota (@ Nebraska) - and team's on shaky ground who can't afford a loss to an inferior opponent - Temple (@ Fordham), LaSalle (vs. G. Washington), and VCU (vs. Richmond). In other words, there's a ton going on that could shift a whole bunch of teams a whole bunch of lines. Should be fun night. I'll spend it watching the Gophers instead.
Since the last time the Gophers played Nebraska the Huskers have gone 2-5 with the two wins home games vs. Iowa and Penn State. In that time they've also played Ohio State and Michigan State at home, losing both by less than ten (7 and 9) so they're not exactly a juggernaut, but road games in the Big 10 are never easy even if Nebraska doesn't really have any impressive home upsets to point to.
Overall Nebraska is a pretty terrible team. They don't do anything particularly well other than take care of the basketball, are thoroughly mediocre on defense, and area terrible shooting team. You remember when the Gophers smoked them at Williams, right? The talent disparity between the two teams is glaring, and the only thing that kept Nebraska at all in the game (and the Gophers won by 19) was Ray Gallegos going coo-coo from three and scoring 30 points. Could that happen again but like, way more dramatic? I suppose, but Gallegos has only scored more than 11 points once in the seven games since then, everyone else on Nebraska sucks, and the Gophers look like they've finally figured things out again. If you're going to have a lull like the Gophers did, have it in the middle of the season, not the end. I choose to believe they're back.
Minnesota 70, Nebraska 53
Now on to Wednesday's tournaments.
ATLANTIC SUN
Another pretty terrible conference like the Big South, but the one thing the A-Sun has going for it is two dominant teams in Mercer and Florida Gulf Coast who are both in the top two in the conference in both offensive and defensive efficiency. When you're dealing with a low major you can forget about having a balanced, deep league and you just have to hope you have a squad or two that is good enough to grab some name recognition by beating, or at least scaring, its first round NCAA foe. Both these teams have a least a chance.
FAVORITE: Mercer. The Bears take the one seed by a game over FGC, but I'm not sure they're the better team. The Bears have a nice non-conference win over Florida State, but FGC beat Miami. Both come in hot with Mercer finishing out at 9-1 and the Eagles at 9-2, and the Eagles won their last meeting last week by 3. This is one of those conference tournaments where if the favorites win out and Mercer meets FGC in the Final it will be worth your time to watch. Probably.
SLEEPER: North Florida. Well, probably not, but they do have Will Wilson, who you may remember as the point guard who never ever ever scores. You will be happy to know that Wilson, who played 31.5 minutes per game this year, upped his scoring average to 3.6 per game, a career high, while upping his assists to 6.1 per game. His total points this season were 112, nearly doubling his career point total which stood at 121 coming into the year. And he did, in fact, finally break double figures in a game this year notching 13 against Jacksonville so congratulations. Will Wilson, we salute you.
W's PICK: Florida Gulf Coast. The Eagles are just more tested, having played four tournament teams this year (Miami, Duke, Iowa State, VCU) while Mercer has just New Mexico. Granted that all happened a long time ago and is pretty much irrelevant, but like I said, it's awfully tough to separate these teams.
PATRIOT LEAGUE
I know you're thinking whoopity-doo another terrible conference and you're right, but you're also sort of wrong too. This might be the best version of the Patriot League I can recall (although they're still ranked as just the 17th best conference by kenpom). Bucknell and Lehigh are top 100 teams with two others in the 100s and only Navy falling past #300. Might not sound like much, but it's a step in the right direction and you can see the difference finally allowing athletic scholarships can make.
FAVORITE: Bucknell. Unfortunately C.J. McCollum broke his foot in a game against VCU this winter (a game Lehigh lost by only four) so the Bison won the league crown and the #1 seed. That's not a slam on Bucknell, who are a very good team with wins over Purdue and LaSalle this season, it's just a bummer because most of the Lehigh team that beat Duke was back this year and McCollum is an amazing player. Even so, Bucknell's Mike Muscala is a stud as well who averaged a double-double while leading the conference in scoring and rebounding, and if the Bison get through they're absolutely a threat to steal a win in the tournament.
SLEEPER: Army. The Black Knights play at a pace considerably fast than anyone else in the Patriot and do so while shooting, and making, a ton of three pointers. That's the kind of team I like for a sleeper.
W's PICK: Bucknell. If McCollum returns from injury (even as of 3 days ago, the most recent article I could find, things are still up in the air) things get more interesting, but if he doesn't I expect Bucknell to run the table pretty easily.
OHIO VALLEY
Belmont moving in to the OVC was supposed to create a two-headed monster at the top of the conference with the Bruins and Murray State. The only problem was the Racers didn't hold up their end of the bargain, whiffing on their only real out of conference chance to get a big win against Colorado (and what a horrible schedule they put together) and going just 10-6 in conference. Belmont still has an outside chance at an at-large given good computer numbers and a 14-2 conference record but it's an outside shot at best and the OVC will most likely remain a one-bid league.
FAVORITE: Belmont. These guys have been relevant long enough that I can even tell you their two best players without looking it up - Ian Clark and Kerron Johnson - a pair of senior guards who have been this team's leaders forever. Their are three other upperclassmen starters as well and those five play the majority of the team's minutes and basically score all their points. They've been in the last two NCAA Tournaments but haven't broken through for a win yet. With that experience now could this be the year.
SLEEPER: Eastern Kentucky. Given Murray State's rough year and not even ranking in kenpom's Top 25 they might be a more appropriate sleeper than EKU - the team that finished with the second best record in the league and only team in the top 2 in both O and D efficiency in the OVC - but I'm pretty sure Murray is still the sexier pick since the media has bludgeoned us all over the head with them for years. The Colonels create a ton of turnovers but don't defend all that well, which is generally death to teams who play the Bruins. Still, they've probably got the best shot to knock them off.
W's PICK: Belmont. I feel like I'm picking a lot of favorites, but that's kind of how it works in these conferences. Also, to answer my earlier rhetorical question, no it's not the year. Belmont won't win an NCAA Tournament game again.
WEST COAST CONFERENCE
A pretty uninteresting conference tournament but in an interesting way. There are two possible NCAA teams here: Gonzaga (locked in, possible #1 seed) and St. Mary's (right on the bubble). What St. Mary's could really use is another quality win, but the only way to get one at this point in the WCC is to beat Gonzaga. However, because of their seeds, beating Gonzaga is only possible in the WCC Tournament Final, which would put the Gaels in automatically. So either St. Mary's wins their way in, or they've already done enough to get the invite. Uninteresting in an interesting way, which is what I said if you had been paying attention.
FAVORITE: Gonzaga. Although the WCC is far better than a lot of other conferences I have or will be previewing (ranking 10th) there might not be a more prohibitive favorite in any conference than Gonzaga. The Zags are in line for a possible #1 seed, are 16-0 in conference play, and rank as the #4 team in the country according to kenpom. Sure, St. Mary's (rank #19), BYU (#71), and Santa Clara (#87) are quality teams with their eyes on the upset, but Gonzaga has crushed all three of these teams this year.
SLEEPER: San Francisco. It's not easy to pick a sleeper here when the top four just beat up on each other and killed everyone else (between the four good teams only three of their losses came to other teams) so I'll go with the team that picked up one of those (over BYU) and has an interesting statistical profile. The Dons, who are coached by Rex Walters which feels relevant for some reason, hit 40.2% of their three pointers this year, good for 9th best in the nation. So that's something. Although the way the WCC sets things up it's almost guaranteed to be either Gonzaga or St. Mary's coming out of here.
W's PICK: St. Mary's. This isn't an indictment of Gonzaga, because I do think they're a Final Four contender who deserves a one seed, but St. Mary's is going to be playing as if their lives depend on it in this game - and their tournament lives very well might. I think they're flying under the radar a bit, especially since Gonzaga swept them, and I don't want to have to stop watching Matthew Dellavedova yet. If loving that floppy haired little muppet is wrong I don't want to be right.
NORTHEASTERN CONFERENCE
You want to talk about a conference only a mother could love, let's go with the NEC. They're consistently ranked in the bottom quartile for conference strength, and if you look at the list of teams I don't know that they've ever even been close in an NCAA Tournament game, much less won one. There are a handful of other conferences who can never rise out of the bottom of the barrel as a whole, but outside of the SWAC I can recall each one of those conferences at least being competitive with many of them actually winning games here and there. Not so the NEC. Where have you gone, Charles Jones?
FAVORITE: Robert Morris. The closest thing the NEC puts out as a power program, the Colonials have missed the NCAA Tournament each of the last two seasons despite winning at least 12 conference games each year and advancing to the NEC Tournament Championship game. Both years they lost to LIU-Brooklyn, which is once again a viable scenario this season. Also researching that led me to the box score that reminded me that Robert Morris took Villanova to overtime as a 15 seed three years ago which just goes to show that I don't know what the hell I'm talking about.
SLEEPER: Bryant. "Who?" is what your asking and I don't blame you. As far back as 2008 Bryant was still in D-II before starting to transition to Division I. Four terrible years later (20 total wins including 2 last year) here are the Bulldogs in their first season eligible for the NCAA Tournament and sitting at 12-6 in the conference (good for a number 2 seed). Cool story, bro.
W's PICK: Bryant. It's too good of a story, although if they do make it and it gets crammed down our throats like everything else ESPN latches on too I'm going to regret rooting for this to happen. The Bulldogs aren't just a novelty - they rank #1 in the NEC in offensive efficiency and have two 17+ ppg scorers who cover you on the perimeter and in the paint with three other 9+ point scorers. They probably play too crappy on the defensive side to threaten anybody in the NCAA Tournament but as far as the NEC goes? It's in play. Sorry Robert Morris, maybe fourth time is the charm?
As far as Tuesday's results, Arkansas - a pretty big longshot as it stood - got crushed by Missouri which should take them out of the running for an at-large. Southern Miss lost by just four to Marshall, but that pretty much kilt them as well. Notre Dame probably sealed it with a win over St. Johns, while Iowa kept the dream alive by beating Illinois (who is probably safe either way). In the big elimination game between Ole Miss and Alabama the Rebels took care of business, beating Bama by four in a game they basically controlled from the tip so they're still alive, while Memphis locked up their bid, if they hadn't already, by taking down UTEP on the road. Meanwhile Boise State looked every bit a tournament team at UNLV, but because they didn't get the win they remain an absolutely difficult read. Just looking at season results and eye test they seem legit, but are about as hard on the bubble as possible. Interesting team to watch.
Wednesday's action features a nice mix of teams who really could use a big win - Villanova (vs. Georgetown), Iowa State (vs. Oklahoma State), Maryland (vs. UNC) - can lock up a bid with a win - Oklahoma (@ WVU), Cal (vs. Stanford), San Diego State (vs. Air Force), Minnesota (@ Nebraska) - and team's on shaky ground who can't afford a loss to an inferior opponent - Temple (@ Fordham), LaSalle (vs. G. Washington), and VCU (vs. Richmond). In other words, there's a ton going on that could shift a whole bunch of teams a whole bunch of lines. Should be fun night. I'll spend it watching the Gophers instead.
Saturday, November 12, 2011
Gophers beat Bucknell with a Late Surge
Read that post title again. Doesn't seem likely. For the past few seasons anytime "late surge" has been involved the Gophers have usually been the one who got surged on, and it almost happened again Friday night, but - and this is major - it didn't.
It looked like the Gophers were mostly in control in the first half, but due to four three-pointers by Bucknell's Bryson Johnson (including a ridiculous one while floating sideways), poor shooting by the Gophers and a complete inability to hit free throws Minnesota was only up 2 at the half. I thought they had it in control and even texted Snacks, who was at some concert, that it was only a matter of time and the Gophers would win by double-digits. I was right, in the end, but man it did not happen how I was expecting.
With 7.5 minutes left in the second half, Bucknell hit a 3-pointer to take a 2-point lead. After Rodney hit one of two free-throws I turned to Bear and said, "Watch, Bucknell will hit a three here, Gophers won't score, and Bucknell will hit a third one." Boom. Well almost, Rodney did make another free throw in there but Bucknell did hit two more threes and were suddenly up seven with just shy of 6 minutes to play. It was playing out like Virginia last year, and both teams even wear the same colors. I felt ill. And then a strange thing happened.
The Gophers started making free throws, hitting 15 of their last 17 (after going just 8-18 prior). They started attack the basket after a second half that had mostly consisted of perimeter passing amongst the guards with little penetration or post presence. They started hitting the boards, playing better defense, and essentially just played the way the Gophers should play. Trevor Mbakwe, Austin Hollins, Julian Welch, and Ralph Sampson took over this game in those final six minutes, particularly Mbakwe, and took this game back, a game that was following a familiar script before the big twist ending, M. Night style.
A lot of people will be unsatisfied with this win, seeing just the name Bucknell and realizing the Bison are a very solid team who likely will end up in the NCAA Tournament. Even more impressive to me was the way they fought back against that good team. That's something I'm not accustomed to in recent years. I'm giving this game a solid B+, despite the slow first half.
Other game thoughts:
1. I'm pretty sure Bucknell gave us the blueprint for the defense nearly every opponent the Gophers face this year will roll out - double Ralph and Trevor on the block and force the other guys, and specifically the other guys outside shooting, to beat them. With poor 3-point shooting from the entire team so far this year, including the two exhibitions, it's a pretty good strategy and what teams should do. Keep in mind that the Gophers don't necessarily have to hit three-pointers to beat it, they just need use those double-teams to find cutters and move the ball for open shots. Although hitting some threes would help - Austin Hollins three-pointer to cut Bucknell's lead to two was one of the biggest of the game.
2. Speaking of hitting cutters, Ralph Sampson was absolutely brilliant in the high post. He's always going to be a good passing big man, and was against Bucknell, but when he's knocking down that jump shot he's an incredible weapon. He hit several deep jumpers last night, and because he loves the deep jumper so much when he gets that going it energizes him and it showed on the boards and blocking shots last night. He was still way too tentative on the block for a 7-footer, but you can handle that when he puts the game together like he did on Friday. I'm still afraid that if Sampson's jumper isn't falling he's going to go into a funk and cost this team some games.
3. Julian Welch is absolutely confusing, because he has incredibly fast hands and very slow feet. Bucknell's guards were routinely able to get past him, with or without the ball, but he was also able to get two steals were he just straight out picked Cameron Ayers and nearly had a third. It was so bad that Ayers stopped bringing the ball up the court when Welch was in the game, and once Julian checked out he'd go back to being the point man. Pretty hilarious. Those good defensive plays looked pretty and will color a lot of opinions, but Welch is definitely a sub-par man-on-man defender overall. Still, to be able to just pick a D-I point guard's pocket, and I did like what I saw from him offensively since he was one of the few guys who was willing to attack the basket. I'll say I'm impressed but have some reservations.
4. Trevor Mbakwe is going to be in foul trouble in some games. I know this isn't going out on a limb, but it's crazy how he just throws his body at people whether it's with the ball, on defense, or positioning for a rebound. You get the wrong ref on the wrong day and Mbakwe's going to spend a lot of time on the bench. That's not going to be a very fun day.
5. Joe Coleman has a long way to go. Not that it's going out on a limb since he's a freshman, and it's not even surprising or anything, but Coleman is meh so far. His defense is pretty terrible, although I think that's mainly due to lack of focus more than anything else, and his big highlight play against Bucknell was a near three-point play (he missed the free throw, natch) where he basically charged right at three Bucknell defenders, somehow made the shot, and was gifted with a foul call. He's still playing like he's the only show in town and he's up against Spring Lake Park. I'm not giving up on him at all, I just don't expect he'll play much once we hit conference play.
6. Bryson Johnson of Bucknell is one hell of a shooter even if he looks like this assface I used to play against in high school. He's aslo absolutely terrified when he gets the ball in the paint and has no idea what to do, even if he's the one who brought the ball in there with him. He only had one turnover, but there were at least two other times he got into the lane and just had no idea what to do with it and the team didn't get a good shot. Way to be well-rounded, nerd.
I think that'll pretty much do it for now. No matter what dumb people think this was a good win. Also I didn't mention Rodney Williams because, once again, there's nothing worth mentioning. I wish there was a way to trade him to someone who still believes.
Anyway, Gophers win and it's a good win. I'll take it.
It looked like the Gophers were mostly in control in the first half, but due to four three-pointers by Bucknell's Bryson Johnson (including a ridiculous one while floating sideways), poor shooting by the Gophers and a complete inability to hit free throws Minnesota was only up 2 at the half. I thought they had it in control and even texted Snacks, who was at some concert, that it was only a matter of time and the Gophers would win by double-digits. I was right, in the end, but man it did not happen how I was expecting.
With 7.5 minutes left in the second half, Bucknell hit a 3-pointer to take a 2-point lead. After Rodney hit one of two free-throws I turned to Bear and said, "Watch, Bucknell will hit a three here, Gophers won't score, and Bucknell will hit a third one." Boom. Well almost, Rodney did make another free throw in there but Bucknell did hit two more threes and were suddenly up seven with just shy of 6 minutes to play. It was playing out like Virginia last year, and both teams even wear the same colors. I felt ill. And then a strange thing happened.
The Gophers started making free throws, hitting 15 of their last 17 (after going just 8-18 prior). They started attack the basket after a second half that had mostly consisted of perimeter passing amongst the guards with little penetration or post presence. They started hitting the boards, playing better defense, and essentially just played the way the Gophers should play. Trevor Mbakwe, Austin Hollins, Julian Welch, and Ralph Sampson took over this game in those final six minutes, particularly Mbakwe, and took this game back, a game that was following a familiar script before the big twist ending, M. Night style.
A lot of people will be unsatisfied with this win, seeing just the name Bucknell and realizing the Bison are a very solid team who likely will end up in the NCAA Tournament. Even more impressive to me was the way they fought back against that good team. That's something I'm not accustomed to in recent years. I'm giving this game a solid B+, despite the slow first half.
Other game thoughts:
1. I'm pretty sure Bucknell gave us the blueprint for the defense nearly every opponent the Gophers face this year will roll out - double Ralph and Trevor on the block and force the other guys, and specifically the other guys outside shooting, to beat them. With poor 3-point shooting from the entire team so far this year, including the two exhibitions, it's a pretty good strategy and what teams should do. Keep in mind that the Gophers don't necessarily have to hit three-pointers to beat it, they just need use those double-teams to find cutters and move the ball for open shots. Although hitting some threes would help - Austin Hollins three-pointer to cut Bucknell's lead to two was one of the biggest of the game.
2. Speaking of hitting cutters, Ralph Sampson was absolutely brilliant in the high post. He's always going to be a good passing big man, and was against Bucknell, but when he's knocking down that jump shot he's an incredible weapon. He hit several deep jumpers last night, and because he loves the deep jumper so much when he gets that going it energizes him and it showed on the boards and blocking shots last night. He was still way too tentative on the block for a 7-footer, but you can handle that when he puts the game together like he did on Friday. I'm still afraid that if Sampson's jumper isn't falling he's going to go into a funk and cost this team some games.
3. Julian Welch is absolutely confusing, because he has incredibly fast hands and very slow feet. Bucknell's guards were routinely able to get past him, with or without the ball, but he was also able to get two steals were he just straight out picked Cameron Ayers and nearly had a third. It was so bad that Ayers stopped bringing the ball up the court when Welch was in the game, and once Julian checked out he'd go back to being the point man. Pretty hilarious. Those good defensive plays looked pretty and will color a lot of opinions, but Welch is definitely a sub-par man-on-man defender overall. Still, to be able to just pick a D-I point guard's pocket, and I did like what I saw from him offensively since he was one of the few guys who was willing to attack the basket. I'll say I'm impressed but have some reservations.
4. Trevor Mbakwe is going to be in foul trouble in some games. I know this isn't going out on a limb, but it's crazy how he just throws his body at people whether it's with the ball, on defense, or positioning for a rebound. You get the wrong ref on the wrong day and Mbakwe's going to spend a lot of time on the bench. That's not going to be a very fun day.
5. Joe Coleman has a long way to go. Not that it's going out on a limb since he's a freshman, and it's not even surprising or anything, but Coleman is meh so far. His defense is pretty terrible, although I think that's mainly due to lack of focus more than anything else, and his big highlight play against Bucknell was a near three-point play (he missed the free throw, natch) where he basically charged right at three Bucknell defenders, somehow made the shot, and was gifted with a foul call. He's still playing like he's the only show in town and he's up against Spring Lake Park. I'm not giving up on him at all, I just don't expect he'll play much once we hit conference play.
6. Bryson Johnson of Bucknell is one hell of a shooter even if he looks like this assface I used to play against in high school. He's aslo absolutely terrified when he gets the ball in the paint and has no idea what to do, even if he's the one who brought the ball in there with him. He only had one turnover, but there were at least two other times he got into the lane and just had no idea what to do with it and the team didn't get a good shot. Way to be well-rounded, nerd.
I think that'll pretty much do it for now. No matter what dumb people think this was a good win. Also I didn't mention Rodney Williams because, once again, there's nothing worth mentioning. I wish there was a way to trade him to someone who still believes.
Anyway, Gophers win and it's a good win. I'll take it.
Thursday, November 10, 2011
Gophers vs. Bucknell Preview
Well here we go. After two less than inspiring efforts in their two exhibition wins the Gophers jump into the real season with a tester right out of the gate against last year's Patriot League champ Bucknell, who has essentially their whole team back. The Bison are accustomed to being dangerous, having knocked off Kansas in the 2005 NCAA Tournament and Arkansas in 2006, but it's worth noting that they haven't won a meaningful non-conference game since beating Xavier back in 2006-2007 and had their doors blown off by UCONN in the first round of last year's tournament
That's not to say they aren't going to be a handful, because as I mentioned they have a whole lot back from last year, starting with Minnesota native Mike Muscala. Muscala is a big dude at 6-11, 235 lbs., and is a force on the interior (15 pts & 7 rebs per game) but also has a good mid-range jumper. With Mbakwe and/or Sampson on him he's going to have his work cut out for him, and neither he nor Bucknell as a whole were much of an offensive rebounding team last year so the biggest key will be defending those first shots, and that's exactly what worries me about the game tonight, because Bucknell has a ridiculous amount of shooters.
Four returning players shot better than 35% from three last year and the team hit at 40% last year, 7th best in the country. Especially scary is shooting guard Bryson Johnson who shot 46% from behind the arc last year while setting a school record for 3-point makes. Throw in Bryan Cohen (44%, and oh by the way the two-time Patriot League defensive player of the year) and Cameron Ayers (36%) and we are going to find out in an awful hurry if the Gophers weakness of the past few years is a thing of the past or something that is again going to rip fans' souls out, and I'm really hoping I'm not about to go watch another Virginia game.
Basically this game is going to come down to a few key points:
1. The three-point shooting thing I was just talking about. Once again, Bucknell is a terrible offensive rebounding team and with Sampson, Mbakwe, and Rodney Williams I don't expect the Gophers to give up many offensive boards. For Bucknell to win they're going to have to hit shots, and they can do it. It's up to the Gophers to defend the perimeter and make them at least make tough shots rather than wide open ones. I'm terrified for this.
2. Andre Hollins handling pressure. As mentioned Bucknell has the two-time Patriot League Defensive Player of the Year in Bryan Cohen. Since the Gophers don't have an obvious perimeter weapon for him to guard it makes the most sense to put him on the freshman point guard to disrupt the offense (although I'm hoping that Bucknell's coach buys into the hype and puts Cohen on Rodney). Hollins will need to be able to get the team into the offense because both Maverick and Welch will get eaten alive. Either Andre or him in combination with his brother Austin will need to be smart with the ball.
3. Which Ralph Sampson shows up. Bucknell has a huge advantage over most mid-low majors in Muscala, because most teams on that tier don't have a 6-11 dude who has both some athleticism and some skills. Unfortunately for them their only other size is a 6-8 power forward who played less than 5 minutes per game last year, so unless he's suddenly ready for prime time Bucknell is going to have to choose to put him on either Mbakwe or Sampson and hope the other one doesn't kill them. If Ralph is invisible and/or terrible that allows Muscala to be on Mbakwe - a matchup I'd still expect Trevor to win, but not as easily as if Muscala has to guard Sampson instead. Hopefully Ralph realizes this is his last year and he should, you know, try and stuff.
4. Bucknell's point guard play. The only player Bucknell loses from last year is their starting point guard, obviously not an easy position to fill. The have Cameron Ayers ready to go, but he was more of a combo wing type last year than a true point, so this will be a big test. We didn't see much pressing by the Gophers in the two exhibition games, but with a brand new point guard as the opponent it would be a wasted opportunity not to give it a try tonight. I'd even say it's downright stupid not to. So why am I so convinced they won't do it?
So there you have it. Bucknell is a smart, veteran team with some good players, great shooters, and enough ability to give the Gophers a scare. They're also undersized, not nearly as athletic as Minnesota, and are very likely going to get destroyed by Trevor Mbakwe.
Minnesota 74, Bucknell 66.
That's not to say they aren't going to be a handful, because as I mentioned they have a whole lot back from last year, starting with Minnesota native Mike Muscala. Muscala is a big dude at 6-11, 235 lbs., and is a force on the interior (15 pts & 7 rebs per game) but also has a good mid-range jumper. With Mbakwe and/or Sampson on him he's going to have his work cut out for him, and neither he nor Bucknell as a whole were much of an offensive rebounding team last year so the biggest key will be defending those first shots, and that's exactly what worries me about the game tonight, because Bucknell has a ridiculous amount of shooters.
Four returning players shot better than 35% from three last year and the team hit at 40% last year, 7th best in the country. Especially scary is shooting guard Bryson Johnson who shot 46% from behind the arc last year while setting a school record for 3-point makes. Throw in Bryan Cohen (44%, and oh by the way the two-time Patriot League defensive player of the year) and Cameron Ayers (36%) and we are going to find out in an awful hurry if the Gophers weakness of the past few years is a thing of the past or something that is again going to rip fans' souls out, and I'm really hoping I'm not about to go watch another Virginia game.
Basically this game is going to come down to a few key points:
1. The three-point shooting thing I was just talking about. Once again, Bucknell is a terrible offensive rebounding team and with Sampson, Mbakwe, and Rodney Williams I don't expect the Gophers to give up many offensive boards. For Bucknell to win they're going to have to hit shots, and they can do it. It's up to the Gophers to defend the perimeter and make them at least make tough shots rather than wide open ones. I'm terrified for this.
2. Andre Hollins handling pressure. As mentioned Bucknell has the two-time Patriot League Defensive Player of the Year in Bryan Cohen. Since the Gophers don't have an obvious perimeter weapon for him to guard it makes the most sense to put him on the freshman point guard to disrupt the offense (although I'm hoping that Bucknell's coach buys into the hype and puts Cohen on Rodney). Hollins will need to be able to get the team into the offense because both Maverick and Welch will get eaten alive. Either Andre or him in combination with his brother Austin will need to be smart with the ball.
3. Which Ralph Sampson shows up. Bucknell has a huge advantage over most mid-low majors in Muscala, because most teams on that tier don't have a 6-11 dude who has both some athleticism and some skills. Unfortunately for them their only other size is a 6-8 power forward who played less than 5 minutes per game last year, so unless he's suddenly ready for prime time Bucknell is going to have to choose to put him on either Mbakwe or Sampson and hope the other one doesn't kill them. If Ralph is invisible and/or terrible that allows Muscala to be on Mbakwe - a matchup I'd still expect Trevor to win, but not as easily as if Muscala has to guard Sampson instead. Hopefully Ralph realizes this is his last year and he should, you know, try and stuff.
4. Bucknell's point guard play. The only player Bucknell loses from last year is their starting point guard, obviously not an easy position to fill. The have Cameron Ayers ready to go, but he was more of a combo wing type last year than a true point, so this will be a big test. We didn't see much pressing by the Gophers in the two exhibition games, but with a brand new point guard as the opponent it would be a wasted opportunity not to give it a try tonight. I'd even say it's downright stupid not to. So why am I so convinced they won't do it?
So there you have it. Bucknell is a smart, veteran team with some good players, great shooters, and enough ability to give the Gophers a scare. They're also undersized, not nearly as athletic as Minnesota, and are very likely going to get destroyed by Trevor Mbakwe.
Minnesota 74, Bucknell 66.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
Posts
