It's March, which means it's time for madness, which kicks off with smaller conference tournaments beginning later tonight with the Atlantic Sun, Horizon, and Patriot. I didn't do it last year, but every other year (so many years) I've written this blog I've done little conference tournament previews because I think conference tournaments are almost as good as the NCAA Tournament. Ok, they're not, but they're a great little warm-up with wall-to-wall action for two weeks including day games, and everyone knows day games are the best things to gamble on. I figured now that I'm participating in The Jerome this year (a thing where a whole bunch of college basketball nerds try to pick the winner of every conference tournament), I might as well bring them back. So here is the return of the Award Winning DWG Conference Tournament previews, starting with the tourneys kicking off tonight. (FYI - collegebasketballtalk.nbcsports.com has nice breakdowns of these as well).
ATLANTIC SUN:
The Atlantic Sun is on a nice little streak of success. Mercer beat Duke last year in the tournament, which ruled, and Florida Gulf Coast, #DunkCity, made that nifty little sweet sixteen two seasons ago. Whoever comes out of this bracket could surprise again as the conference netted wins over Purdue, UMASS, and Georgia Tech this year.
FAVORITE: North Florida. The Ospreys own that win over Purdue, and they stomped through the league to a 12-2 mark. They're also the only team in the conference with a Top 100 efficiency mark on either end of the floor according to kenpom.com (#69 offensive eff.). The only other team to hit double digit wins in the A-Sun, Florida Gulf Coast at 11-3, lost twice to North Florida, both times by double digits.
SLEEPER: USC Upstate. Just 8-6 in the conference, the Spartans weren't all that impressive this year except for the fact that they swept North Florida and were the only A-Sun team to beat the Ospreys. They also have the conference's leading scorer in Ty Greene (20.1ppg) who absolutely went off on North Florida this year (32ppg in the two contests). They're on the other side of the bracket and will have to survive a tough matchup against FGCU to get there, but no way does UNF want to see these guys again.
THE PICK: North Florida. It's so tempting to take Gulf Coast. It would be a great story since they have still have two players, now seniors, from that Sweet 16 team who would love to make a run again. Unfortunately the Eagle offense just hasn't been that good this year, and the A-Sun setup, where the higher seed gets home court, swings this one North Florida's way. Add in the season sweep by the Ospreys and I just can't do it.
HORIZON LEAGUE:
This used to be one of the premier mid-majors conferences in the land, but Butler's jump to the Big East along with down trends and once dangerous schools like Valpo, Cleveland State, Oakland, and Wright State have taken off some of the shine. The only real good win the entire conference had in non-conference play was Green Bay's over Miami (could include Valpo over Murray State, too).
FAVORITE: Valparaiso. The Crusaders won the top seed with a 13-3 record, and as such have home court throughout the tournament (as long as they're alive) and a bye directly into the semifinals (so did second seeded Green Bay).
SLEEPER: Oakland. The Grizzlies had a pretty terrible non-conference run going 5-10 including some really bad losses, but they also packed in plenty of tough games which gave them the #12 toughest non-conference schedule in the country. They turned it around in conference play going 11-5, including 10-3 to close out the season. With two of the league's first team all-conference players on board they're dangerous.
THE PICK: Green Bay. The bye into the semis is so valuable that this pick basically comes down to Valpo or Green Bay, and I'm going Phoenix based on their defense (#32 in the country) and 2-point offense (52.4%, 30th in the country). The can't win a shootout since they can't and don't shoot 3s (7th lowest % of points from 3s in the country), but that defense should keep them close enough to play their game no matter who they play.
PATRIOT LEAGUE:
I think I pimped this book, The Last Amateurs, every time I've written about the Patriot League but it's really good even if it's not really all that relevant anymore (I think they have athletic scholarships now). It's still a good book. Anyway, Bucknell won the conference number 1 seed which seems like a pretty common occurrence without looking it up, but they weren't dominant with 5 conference losses and the Patriot is pretty wide open.
FAVORITE: Bucknell. Like I said, they took down the regular season conference title and that gives them the #1 seed and home court throughout, a place they only lost once in conference play. They lost by just seven against Villanova and eight against Penn State this year, so when things are going well they're a good team. When they're not, however, they're capable of losing to Siena and Mount St. Mary's. Weird team in a weird conference.
SLEEPER: Lehigh. They have kenpom's conference player of the year in Tim Kempton who averaged 15.1 points and 8.6 rebounds per game this year, and they could be blossoming at the right time. Their last 3 conference games were a blowout of league winner Bucknell and two close losses to the 2nd place and 4th place teams in the league.
THE PICK: Colgate. Eighth in the country in effective field goal percentage, which will happen when you shoot 40% from three and 53% from two, both top 20 marks in the nation. The defense is really shaky, but the Raiders went 7-1 against the four other top-5 teams in Patriot League play so as long as they can avoid laying an egg against Army or Navy, two bad teams that beat them in the regular season, in round 2 I like their chances. Three of their top four scorers are guards, which is always a good thing in March.
Tomorrow the American East, Big South, Northeast, and Ohio Valley get going. Stop back for more!
Showing posts with label Lehigh. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Lehigh. Show all posts
Tuesday, March 3, 2015
Monday, November 11, 2013
Gophers Game Recap and Life after Reid Travis
Holy shit you guys there is a lot to talk about Gopher hoops-wise, and so very little of it has to do with what happened on the court Friday night. I suppose I might as well start with the clear A topic: Reid Travis.
It truly sucks that Travis chose Stanford, considering I, like many, had gotten the idea that he as getting pretty close to a Gopher lock. My heart sank a bit when it became clear he was describing Stanford, and I definitely said a bad word when he confirmed it. It's hard to fault the young man, unless of course you're one of the chemically inbalanced over at Gopher Hole who wrote some pretty vile things about a 17-year old, for choosing a four year education at Stanford. That's an elite institution, and knowing the Travis family's focus on academics (he has a brother at Harvard), it was probably tough to pass up. Add in that the Stanford basketball program has been more successful over Reid's life (check the numbers over the last 20 years, sad but true) and the fact that Johnny Dawkins and staff were one of the first groups on him and have been recruiting him for four years, and it's actually kind of a no brainer. The fact that the Gophers were that close in the end is probably a positive, although it's a pretty hollow thing to say right now.
There is another set of fans who may not hold the actual commitment against him, but feel personally betrayed because of the circumstances. The feel led on by Travis going to the Gophers final exhibition game, shadowing classes at the U, and inviting the general public to his press conference (if he actually did that). They feel that doing all of that, and then not picking the home school, was a dick move. I personally disagree. First of all, pretty much every highly ranked recruit announces press conference style, and if you were Reid and saw all your friends from AAU ball doing it you'd probably want to do it too. Secondly, he says he didn't make up his mind until the night before he announced, and I have no reason to doubt him (although plenty of cretins do), so it was just an unfortunate situation, not something Reid Travis "intentionally set up because he doesn't care about other human being's feelings and is a total prick" which is something I actually read that a presumed adult wrote.
Being pissed at a 17 year old kid for not picking your favorite school, particularly when he picks a place like Stanford, is ludicrous. Say damn it, and move on. Speaking of moving on, with one more scholarship still available for 2014 the Travis decision means Richard Pitino is still going to have to work the recruiting trail. Also, by the way, anybody who blames Travis going to Stanford on Pitino is completely clueless. FACT. Anyway, here are some of the options still available for 2014:
1. SF Josh Cunningham - Top 150 type who is more athlete than basketball player, but has the traits where he could blossom in the right system, and that would include Pitino's. Gophers seemed to cool on him which led to him cooling on them or the other way around? Looking like he's pretty strongly towards Bradley, but would he re-think it if a Big Ten team got involved?
2. PF Abdoulaye Gueye - A pretty skilled, but still raw, big man. His combination of size and athleticism has certainly gotten him noticed, even if he's not shooting up rankings or anything. When Memphis is involved (they've offered) you know something is going right. Probably the #1 guy (not counting Vaughn) right now for Pitino.
3. C Anas Osama Mahmoud - His recruiting seems to be going awfully slowly right now, but now that he's moved to Florida from Egypt and stands seven feet tall you know he's going to draw interest. Louisville is involved, which is interesting not just for the father vs. son angle but also because if Louisville's looking at him it's probably worth exploring for the Gophers. I can't find much information on this guy, but from what I can tell he's really tall and really skinny, and there are a lot of respectable schools on him. Ok sounds good.
4. SG Delshon Strickland - Back court is awfully crowded at this point, but due to Strickland being from Holy Angels you never know if the team might go after a local kid to fill that last scholarship. Currently holds offers from Auburn and Miami, so he's no slouch, even if he isn't highly rated. Interested to see if he has a big senior year if the Gophers look to grab him in the Spring, assuming Vaughn is a no go.
5. C Fred Iduwe - Pure project with size and leaping ability but very raw basketball skills seeing as he pretty much just picked up a basketball yesterday. Naturally the mind drifts towards Gorgui Dieng, but Dieng was a lot more skilled than your typical African import, spent time at Huntington Prep which is a basketball factory, and was highly sought by a lot of big time programs. Iduwe would be a complete flier.
Of course, the ideal option would be for Rashad Vaughn to actually decide to become a Gopher. There's also the option to hang on to that scholarship and bank it to 2015, when Pitino has had over a year to hopefully work his magic on that class. I think I'd prefer that option over anybody other than Vaughn.
- As far as the game goes, it seemed like it was going to be a pretty bad night. First the Travis thing, then just before the game it was reported that Wally Ellenson wouldn't play due to a verbal issue with Pitino (later denied by Pitino) and Mo Walker had been suspended six games due to a violation of University policy (confirmed). It was like, what else can go wrong today? And then everyone remembered it was Lehigh and all was well as the Gophers smoked fools 81-62. Some thoughts:
* This may have been by design, but the offense seemed really scatter shot with very little structure, which I realize is kind of the point in transition but to me it seemed to carry on longer than it should have once they got into the half court. I need to pay more attention to this next game.
* The Hollins brothers are going to be everything this year. They're both just so good and so skilled. They won't be the top two scorers in every game, but they're almost certain to be the top two scorers in average by the end of the season.
* The Honey Gopher (Dre Mathieu) is going to help Dre Hollins out huge this year by allowing him to play off the ball more. Without having to always be the one setting up the offense Hollins will have chances to go down on the block or the wing and have a play actually ran for him to get a shot - something that did work well against Lehigh when they tried it. His assists may be down from last year (and it's not going to help his NBA aspirations to play anything but pure point) but he might very well end up leading the Big Ten in scoring.
* Speaking of Mathieu, he is just so fast and attack-y I can't help but love him. He has a tendency to attack when he probably shouldn't (perhaps because he just don't care?) and that will lead to some very ugly turnovers but also some easy baskets where it looks like there shouldn't be one. I like a point guard who sometimes says F it and forces the action, and while Dre H. has some of it, Drizzy has a whole lot of it.
* Double double for Elliot Eliason with 11 pts and 17 rebs, and I don't care if it was against a team without a real front court it still counts. I can now count Eliason along with the two Hollinses as the three players I don't worry about at all this season. Eliason is what he is, and while he's never going to make an all conference team or get an NBA tryout, he's going to bust his ass and be a serviceable (maybe slightly better) Big Ten center. And I'm totally happy with that.
* Joey King led the team in scoring with 20, and although he did absolutely nothing to allay my fears about him (1 freaking rebound?!!?!?), I now see where he may have a place on the team. Every team is better off when they have an instant offense type off the bench (this is what the T-Wolves are sorely lacking) and King and his love of the outside shot could provide this. If there was some way to then sub him out for somebody else to play defense that would be great.
* Not sure what to make of Malik Smith. He's shown me absolutely nothing so far, but I suspect he's a better player than that and is still trying to find his role, no longer being the alpha dog. I'm sure it'll come in time, and he'll probably end up practically single handedly winning a game with his three point shooting. Of course he'll probably shoot them out of at least one game too, but say la vee.
* Maverick will be fine as a shooter off the bench. He should never be allowed to dribble. Like Willie Mays Hayes in Major League, Mav should have to do push ups any time he puts the ball on the floor.
* Oto is a tough one. He seems to alternate between competence and pants shitting panic. He seems to still have a serious confidence problem carrying over from last season where the basket had a lid on it for him. If the coaches and his teammates can help him get over what ever that mental block is I think he can be pretty good in this offense. If they can't, he'd be worthless in even a pick-up game at the Y.
* Charles Buggs has really long arms. Also, I was wrong to be so excited about him.
- Lastly, I won't act like I'm some football diehard because I'm not, but this gopher football thing is really freaking cool. I've been going to games for my entire life, usually 2-3 a year and that's never wavered so I've paid my dues enough to enjoy the hell out of this. I mean, a legit chance at the Gator Bowl? The freaking Gator Bowl? That is amazing. And they're actually fun to watch too. I mean, they run plays and stuff and have players who can like, do things. It's really great.
It truly sucks that Travis chose Stanford, considering I, like many, had gotten the idea that he as getting pretty close to a Gopher lock. My heart sank a bit when it became clear he was describing Stanford, and I definitely said a bad word when he confirmed it. It's hard to fault the young man, unless of course you're one of the chemically inbalanced over at Gopher Hole who wrote some pretty vile things about a 17-year old, for choosing a four year education at Stanford. That's an elite institution, and knowing the Travis family's focus on academics (he has a brother at Harvard), it was probably tough to pass up. Add in that the Stanford basketball program has been more successful over Reid's life (check the numbers over the last 20 years, sad but true) and the fact that Johnny Dawkins and staff were one of the first groups on him and have been recruiting him for four years, and it's actually kind of a no brainer. The fact that the Gophers were that close in the end is probably a positive, although it's a pretty hollow thing to say right now.
There is another set of fans who may not hold the actual commitment against him, but feel personally betrayed because of the circumstances. The feel led on by Travis going to the Gophers final exhibition game, shadowing classes at the U, and inviting the general public to his press conference (if he actually did that). They feel that doing all of that, and then not picking the home school, was a dick move. I personally disagree. First of all, pretty much every highly ranked recruit announces press conference style, and if you were Reid and saw all your friends from AAU ball doing it you'd probably want to do it too. Secondly, he says he didn't make up his mind until the night before he announced, and I have no reason to doubt him (although plenty of cretins do), so it was just an unfortunate situation, not something Reid Travis "intentionally set up because he doesn't care about other human being's feelings and is a total prick" which is something I actually read that a presumed adult wrote.
Being pissed at a 17 year old kid for not picking your favorite school, particularly when he picks a place like Stanford, is ludicrous. Say damn it, and move on. Speaking of moving on, with one more scholarship still available for 2014 the Travis decision means Richard Pitino is still going to have to work the recruiting trail. Also, by the way, anybody who blames Travis going to Stanford on Pitino is completely clueless. FACT. Anyway, here are some of the options still available for 2014:
1. SF Josh Cunningham - Top 150 type who is more athlete than basketball player, but has the traits where he could blossom in the right system, and that would include Pitino's. Gophers seemed to cool on him which led to him cooling on them or the other way around? Looking like he's pretty strongly towards Bradley, but would he re-think it if a Big Ten team got involved?
2. PF Abdoulaye Gueye - A pretty skilled, but still raw, big man. His combination of size and athleticism has certainly gotten him noticed, even if he's not shooting up rankings or anything. When Memphis is involved (they've offered) you know something is going right. Probably the #1 guy (not counting Vaughn) right now for Pitino.
3. C Anas Osama Mahmoud - His recruiting seems to be going awfully slowly right now, but now that he's moved to Florida from Egypt and stands seven feet tall you know he's going to draw interest. Louisville is involved, which is interesting not just for the father vs. son angle but also because if Louisville's looking at him it's probably worth exploring for the Gophers. I can't find much information on this guy, but from what I can tell he's really tall and really skinny, and there are a lot of respectable schools on him. Ok sounds good.
4. SG Delshon Strickland - Back court is awfully crowded at this point, but due to Strickland being from Holy Angels you never know if the team might go after a local kid to fill that last scholarship. Currently holds offers from Auburn and Miami, so he's no slouch, even if he isn't highly rated. Interested to see if he has a big senior year if the Gophers look to grab him in the Spring, assuming Vaughn is a no go.
5. C Fred Iduwe - Pure project with size and leaping ability but very raw basketball skills seeing as he pretty much just picked up a basketball yesterday. Naturally the mind drifts towards Gorgui Dieng, but Dieng was a lot more skilled than your typical African import, spent time at Huntington Prep which is a basketball factory, and was highly sought by a lot of big time programs. Iduwe would be a complete flier.
Of course, the ideal option would be for Rashad Vaughn to actually decide to become a Gopher. There's also the option to hang on to that scholarship and bank it to 2015, when Pitino has had over a year to hopefully work his magic on that class. I think I'd prefer that option over anybody other than Vaughn.
- As far as the game goes, it seemed like it was going to be a pretty bad night. First the Travis thing, then just before the game it was reported that Wally Ellenson wouldn't play due to a verbal issue with Pitino (later denied by Pitino) and Mo Walker had been suspended six games due to a violation of University policy (confirmed). It was like, what else can go wrong today? And then everyone remembered it was Lehigh and all was well as the Gophers smoked fools 81-62. Some thoughts:
* This may have been by design, but the offense seemed really scatter shot with very little structure, which I realize is kind of the point in transition but to me it seemed to carry on longer than it should have once they got into the half court. I need to pay more attention to this next game.
* The Hollins brothers are going to be everything this year. They're both just so good and so skilled. They won't be the top two scorers in every game, but they're almost certain to be the top two scorers in average by the end of the season.
* The Honey Gopher (Dre Mathieu) is going to help Dre Hollins out huge this year by allowing him to play off the ball more. Without having to always be the one setting up the offense Hollins will have chances to go down on the block or the wing and have a play actually ran for him to get a shot - something that did work well against Lehigh when they tried it. His assists may be down from last year (and it's not going to help his NBA aspirations to play anything but pure point) but he might very well end up leading the Big Ten in scoring.
* Speaking of Mathieu, he is just so fast and attack-y I can't help but love him. He has a tendency to attack when he probably shouldn't (perhaps because he just don't care?) and that will lead to some very ugly turnovers but also some easy baskets where it looks like there shouldn't be one. I like a point guard who sometimes says F it and forces the action, and while Dre H. has some of it, Drizzy has a whole lot of it.
* Double double for Elliot Eliason with 11 pts and 17 rebs, and I don't care if it was against a team without a real front court it still counts. I can now count Eliason along with the two Hollinses as the three players I don't worry about at all this season. Eliason is what he is, and while he's never going to make an all conference team or get an NBA tryout, he's going to bust his ass and be a serviceable (maybe slightly better) Big Ten center. And I'm totally happy with that.
* Joey King led the team in scoring with 20, and although he did absolutely nothing to allay my fears about him (1 freaking rebound?!!?!?), I now see where he may have a place on the team. Every team is better off when they have an instant offense type off the bench (this is what the T-Wolves are sorely lacking) and King and his love of the outside shot could provide this. If there was some way to then sub him out for somebody else to play defense that would be great.
* Not sure what to make of Malik Smith. He's shown me absolutely nothing so far, but I suspect he's a better player than that and is still trying to find his role, no longer being the alpha dog. I'm sure it'll come in time, and he'll probably end up practically single handedly winning a game with his three point shooting. Of course he'll probably shoot them out of at least one game too, but say la vee.
* Maverick will be fine as a shooter off the bench. He should never be allowed to dribble. Like Willie Mays Hayes in Major League, Mav should have to do push ups any time he puts the ball on the floor.
* Oto is a tough one. He seems to alternate between competence and pants shitting panic. He seems to still have a serious confidence problem carrying over from last season where the basket had a lid on it for him. If the coaches and his teammates can help him get over what ever that mental block is I think he can be pretty good in this offense. If they can't, he'd be worthless in even a pick-up game at the Y.
* Charles Buggs has really long arms. Also, I was wrong to be so excited about him.
- Lastly, I won't act like I'm some football diehard because I'm not, but this gopher football thing is really freaking cool. I've been going to games for my entire life, usually 2-3 a year and that's never wavered so I've paid my dues enough to enjoy the hell out of this. I mean, a legit chance at the Gator Bowl? The freaking Gator Bowl? That is amazing. And they're actually fun to watch too. I mean, they run plays and stuff and have players who can like, do things. It's really great.
Thursday, November 7, 2013
NCAA Hoops Preview: Gophers vs. Lehigh
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| But what happened next? |
Well here we are, the official dawning of the Richard Pitino era. After two meaningless and completely uninformative exhibition games we finally get it rolling with a real opponent, the Lehigh Mountain Hawks. Unfortunately the Mountain Hawks aren't same Mountain Hawks who gave us one of my favorite moments in NCAA Tournament History so the game (hopefully) won't be all that close, but I think Lehigh should get a standing ovation when they come out anyway just for this:
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| So awesome. |
But, unfortunately, C.J. McCollum, Gabe Knutson, and Holden Greiner are all gone from that team (and last year's respectable squad that went 21-10 (10-4 in the Patriot) and made the CBI) so Lehigh will likely take a step back as those three were three of the better players in the team's history.
Not unlike the Gophers, Lehigh is much more stable in the back court than up front. It all starts with point guard Mackey McKnight, the six-foot senior point guard who is the team's leading returning scorer (11.9), assister (4.9), stealer (1.3), and second leading returning rebounder (3.6). Mackey is an excellent player (preseason All-Patriot League) and relies on penetration to get his points, although he doesn't mind throwing up the 3-ball even if it's not his best weapon (31% last year). What that penetration does is open up shots for wings Anthony D'Orazio (35% on 83 attempts lasts year) and Stefan Cvrkalj (38% on 93 attempts). If these guys get hot it could certainly cause some problems.
Lehigh would have been even better off in this regard, but B.J. Bailey (48% on 55 attempts) graduated and, with a year of eligibility remaining, opted not to come back for his final year (it should be noted the Patriot League does not give out athletic scholarships other than a handful for football, I believe). There are also questions about Cvrkalj who is recovering from a knee injury and may not even suit up. If he can't go it presses back-up point guard Corey Schroeder into more time off the ball, but he can be deadly there as well (46% from three, although with out the volume of the others). Freshman Austin Price will probably work into the mix as well, and is another guy who can shoot from deep.
Up front there are a ton of questions, given that Lehigh's biggest strength the last couple seasons has been efficiently scoring the basketball and Bailey, McCollum, Knutson, and Greiner were the four leaders in that category last year with three of them (Bailey, McCollum, and Greiner) ranking in the top 100 according to kenpom (well, Bailey and McCollum would have if they qualified). The Mountain Hawks almost make the Gophers' frontline look battle seasoned, given that they'll be heavily reliant on players who are either completely green (freshmen Tim Kempton and Shane Whitfield, sophomore Jesse Chuku who did not play last season after coming over from London because of probably some dumb NCAA rule) or lightly tested (junior Conroy Baltimore with 406 career minutes over two years, sophomore Justin Goldsborough with 362 minutes last year). Those are some pretty sweet names, but what they can do on the court is beyond a question mark, although Kempton seems like a pretty good bet for Patriot Rookie of the Year.
Overall the Mountain Hawks were a pretty bad rebounding team last season and with the players they lost it seems hard to imagine that will get much better. The Gophers have the same question, but with more size and more experience, and although Lehigh has solid guard play injuries and graduations have hit them, while the Gophers back court remains largely intact and should be improved with the additions of Malik Smith and Dre Mathieu (#honeygopher). I expect Lehigh will play a zone in order to help protect their baby front court, and as long as the Gophers don't fall into the bad habit of settling for three pointers all game this should be a fairly easy first win for the Pitino era.
Minnesota 80, Lehigh 55.
Just an FYI as well, there are some really good games right out of the shoot tonight: UCONN vs. Maryland in Brooklyn, St. Johns vs. Wisconsin in South Dakota, Oregon vs. Georgetown in South Korea, Colorado @ Baylor, Oklahoma @ Alabama, BC @ Providence should all be pretty entertaining. Plus there's Day Action and a late game (Drexel @ UCLA) that doesn't start until 11pm. What a day. Reid Travis announcement, Day Action, Gophers start the season, and a night capper game. I am going to be doing a lot of gambling.
Tuesday, July 30, 2013
Gopher 2013-2014 Basketball Schedule Revealed
The Gopher hoop non-conference schedule was revealed Tuesday. And here it is. Rankings are from last year.
11/8 vs. LEHIGH (RPI 107, kenpom 96): A possible top 100 team is always a solid way to kick-off the new year, however the Gophers are a year too late. The players responsible for that awesome Lehigh win over Duke in the NCAA Tournament two years ago have graduated, with C.J. McCollum in the NBA and Gabe Knutson probably like, filing taxes or something since Lehigh is a nerd school. Nerds and wrestling I think. Definitely not basketball.
11/12 vs. MONTANA (RPI 74, kenpom 160): Hey an NCAA Tournament team last year! Let's rock and roll! Actually the Grizzlies have a nice little program going with back-to-back Big Sky Championships and despite losing two of their top three scorers Montana is the most likely non-conference home opponent to end up in the NCAA Tournament this season. Yes, that is correct. I'm serious. No you shut up.
11/16 @ RICHMOND (RPI 91, kenpom 83): The back half of a home-and-home started by Tubby Smith, Richard Pitino honored the commitment so the Gopher will face the Spiders in their only true home game of the non-conference schedule. Richmond brings back three starters from last year's totally mediocre team, and not only might this be a road game but is likely to be the toughest Gopher opponent this year outside of the Maui Invitational. Richmond plays at a pretty slow pace under Chris Mooney so I really like this one as a test to see if the Gophers can impose their will and influence tempo in a tough environment. Could be a pretty good barometer for the entire season, although I believe it's pronounced thermometer.
11/19 vs. COASTAL CAROLINA (RPI 259, kenpom 226): Not really the Gophers' fault they got stuck with these guys as their "first round mainland opponent" in the Maui Invitational, but they weren't good last year and lost their starting back court so I'm guessing they aren't going to be good this year either. On the bright side, you can count on at least one member of the Twin Cities' sports media to bust out an article about what a Chanticleer is (besides tasty, terrific pizza). I predict Reusse, especially if the Gophers lose the previous game at Richmond. He loves that condescending shit, too bad he doesn't do it well.
11/21 vs. WOFFORD (RPI 250, kenpom 256): Wofford has really fallen off since the great Noah Dahlman brought the Terriers to back-to-back NCAA Tournaments (and near wins against Wisconsin and BYU), but at least they are bringing some firepower back from last year's terrible team. Plus they got a guy named Indiana Faithfull which is pretty fricking crazy.
11/25 vs. SYRACUSE (RPI 14, in Maui, kenpom 8): The jewel of the schedule without a doubt, because Syracuse should be in the mix to be a top 10 team again this year. Also, earlier when I wrote about this match-up I mentioned it would be the great back court of the Gophers vs. the great front court of Syracuse, but it turns out I forgot about Michael Gbinije. He's a combo guard who transferred to the Orange after one year at Duke. He was the #29 recruit in the country coming out of high school. He's also 6-7 and should play at the top of the most wing-spanny zone I've ever seen, which could have all five guys at 6-7 or taller at times. As that weird creepy witch said in the Robin Hood with Kevin Costner, "We're doomed."
11/26 vs. ARKANSAS (RPI 95/kenpom 71)(CAL (RPI 54/kenpom 56) in Maui: Cal should be the better match-up here with both teams saw their top player leave school early to enter the NBA Draft (Cal = Allen Crabbe, first round pick; Arkansas = B.J. Young, undrafted - ha ha!) because Cal brings back Justin Cobbs (back in more ways than one) and most of their team from last year while Arkansas also loses Marshawn Powell, the team's second leading scorer, who left the team to go play in Europe or something. This will either be an addition by subtraction year for Arkansas or subtraction by subtraction and probably that second one. Hope for Cal.
11/27 vs. Team 3 in Maui, anywhere from Gonzaga (RPI 6/kenpom 4) to Chaminade (not in D-I): Other options are Baylor (RPI 70/kenpom 26) and Dayton (RPI 114/kenpom 67). Obviously the better the opponent the better the potential results, but seeing as how it's not a random draw for each game you need to win to continue getting quality opponents. Syracuse will be tough, but losing to them and then beating Cal and Baylor or something would still be an outstanding result. Most likely results are a loss in round 1 and then a win over both Arkansas and Dayton. Not bad, but not great. Like a night with your mom.
12/3 vs. FLORIDA STATE (RPI 84/kenpom 124): Andrew Wiggins screwed up everything by choosing Kansas over the Seminoles and now this game is more yawn than not yawn. Last year was one of the worst year's these guys have had under Leonard Hamilton, and with Michael Snaer gone the question is if they'll be worse. Most the rest of the team is back and guys like Okaro White and Terrance Shannon could certainly take a leap, and there's a nice freshman coming in but Snaer was the do-everything team leader type that's tough to replace. Although given how little that mattered last season maybe it turns out chemistry is overrated after all. Don't tell Gardy.
12/7 vs. NEW ORLEANS (RPI 346/kenpom 346): Now things get really, really ugly. You could probably talk yourself into the schedule so far, but these last four games are just nasty, starting with the worst of the worst in the Privateers and yes I had to look that up. They're also in the Southland starting this year after being independent (looked that up) after they used to be D-I but somehow dropped back into D-II or something like that and then got reinstated (remembering this on my own). Should be a fun game though for the first half at least since they're one of the most uptempo teams in the nation. I got news for you though. Ervin Johnson isn't walking through that door.
12/10 vs. SOUTH DAKOTA STATE (RPI 62/kenpom 103): I'm sure everyone is thrilled again because for some reason people love the stupid little teams from the Dakotas, but guess what? With Nate Wolters off to the NBA maybe SDSU just becomes a shitty little shithead team again. Remember when the Gophers played them last year without Wolters? Yeah it'll be like that again but probably worse because Jordan Dykstra probably still hasn't cut his hair. I don't know what he's waiting for. There is good news, however. According to their website there are ZERO Minnesota natives on the roster this year. So shut it already.
12/20 vs. NEBRASKA-OMAHA (RPI 285/kenpom 321): I think they've been a D-I team for like 2 years, which is usually a pretty bad sign. They kind of give the appearance of maybe being slightly interesting because 6 of their top 7 scorers from last season should be back. The first college hockey game I ever went to was UMD vs. Nebraska-Omaha. Their nickname is the Mavericks and they abbreviate their team NEOM. The college World Series is still in Omaha. I once had alligator in Omaha (not making that up...might have been Lincoln). I'm just writing random facts now. I once spent a night getting drunk in a hotel in Nebraska by myself. Here is what I wrote that night. Gripping.
12/28 vs. TEXAS A&M CORPUS CHRISTI (RPI 323/kenpom 309): Remember when these guys made the NCAA Tournament somehow and threw a little teeny tiny scare into Wisconsin before losing? Man that would have been awesome if they one, am I right? Since then they've had as many seasons with single-digit wins as double-digit, and I don't want to throw too many fancy stats at you or anything but not even winning 10 games in a season is a pretty good indicator of sucking and TAMUCC has back-to-back years with 6 total wins. I was going to try to find something good to say but I need to get a drink so let's just wrap this up.
The key to a good schedule is lots of games against teams in the 50-150 range and avoiding playing teams that are sub 200 and especially sub-300. The Gophers likely will have six or seven games against 200+ teams and might have three against teams in the top 100. A strong league can smooth that out but you have to, you know, win the games. It was always going to be an interesting season, but as Lewis Carroll once wrote, it's getting "interestinger and interestinger."
11/8 vs. LEHIGH (RPI 107, kenpom 96): A possible top 100 team is always a solid way to kick-off the new year, however the Gophers are a year too late. The players responsible for that awesome Lehigh win over Duke in the NCAA Tournament two years ago have graduated, with C.J. McCollum in the NBA and Gabe Knutson probably like, filing taxes or something since Lehigh is a nerd school. Nerds and wrestling I think. Definitely not basketball.
11/12 vs. MONTANA (RPI 74, kenpom 160): Hey an NCAA Tournament team last year! Let's rock and roll! Actually the Grizzlies have a nice little program going with back-to-back Big Sky Championships and despite losing two of their top three scorers Montana is the most likely non-conference home opponent to end up in the NCAA Tournament this season. Yes, that is correct. I'm serious. No you shut up.
11/16 @ RICHMOND (RPI 91, kenpom 83): The back half of a home-and-home started by Tubby Smith, Richard Pitino honored the commitment so the Gopher will face the Spiders in their only true home game of the non-conference schedule. Richmond brings back three starters from last year's totally mediocre team, and not only might this be a road game but is likely to be the toughest Gopher opponent this year outside of the Maui Invitational. Richmond plays at a pretty slow pace under Chris Mooney so I really like this one as a test to see if the Gophers can impose their will and influence tempo in a tough environment. Could be a pretty good barometer for the entire season, although I believe it's pronounced thermometer.
11/19 vs. COASTAL CAROLINA (RPI 259, kenpom 226): Not really the Gophers' fault they got stuck with these guys as their "first round mainland opponent" in the Maui Invitational, but they weren't good last year and lost their starting back court so I'm guessing they aren't going to be good this year either. On the bright side, you can count on at least one member of the Twin Cities' sports media to bust out an article about what a Chanticleer is (besides tasty, terrific pizza). I predict Reusse, especially if the Gophers lose the previous game at Richmond. He loves that condescending shit, too bad he doesn't do it well.
11/21 vs. WOFFORD (RPI 250, kenpom 256): Wofford has really fallen off since the great Noah Dahlman brought the Terriers to back-to-back NCAA Tournaments (and near wins against Wisconsin and BYU), but at least they are bringing some firepower back from last year's terrible team. Plus they got a guy named Indiana Faithfull which is pretty fricking crazy.
11/25 vs. SYRACUSE (RPI 14, in Maui, kenpom 8): The jewel of the schedule without a doubt, because Syracuse should be in the mix to be a top 10 team again this year. Also, earlier when I wrote about this match-up I mentioned it would be the great back court of the Gophers vs. the great front court of Syracuse, but it turns out I forgot about Michael Gbinije. He's a combo guard who transferred to the Orange after one year at Duke. He was the #29 recruit in the country coming out of high school. He's also 6-7 and should play at the top of the most wing-spanny zone I've ever seen, which could have all five guys at 6-7 or taller at times. As that weird creepy witch said in the Robin Hood with Kevin Costner, "We're doomed."
11/26 vs. ARKANSAS (RPI 95/kenpom 71)(CAL (RPI 54/kenpom 56) in Maui: Cal should be the better match-up here with both teams saw their top player leave school early to enter the NBA Draft (Cal = Allen Crabbe, first round pick; Arkansas = B.J. Young, undrafted - ha ha!) because Cal brings back Justin Cobbs (back in more ways than one) and most of their team from last year while Arkansas also loses Marshawn Powell, the team's second leading scorer, who left the team to go play in Europe or something. This will either be an addition by subtraction year for Arkansas or subtraction by subtraction and probably that second one. Hope for Cal.
11/27 vs. Team 3 in Maui, anywhere from Gonzaga (RPI 6/kenpom 4) to Chaminade (not in D-I): Other options are Baylor (RPI 70/kenpom 26) and Dayton (RPI 114/kenpom 67). Obviously the better the opponent the better the potential results, but seeing as how it's not a random draw for each game you need to win to continue getting quality opponents. Syracuse will be tough, but losing to them and then beating Cal and Baylor or something would still be an outstanding result. Most likely results are a loss in round 1 and then a win over both Arkansas and Dayton. Not bad, but not great. Like a night with your mom.
12/3 vs. FLORIDA STATE (RPI 84/kenpom 124): Andrew Wiggins screwed up everything by choosing Kansas over the Seminoles and now this game is more yawn than not yawn. Last year was one of the worst year's these guys have had under Leonard Hamilton, and with Michael Snaer gone the question is if they'll be worse. Most the rest of the team is back and guys like Okaro White and Terrance Shannon could certainly take a leap, and there's a nice freshman coming in but Snaer was the do-everything team leader type that's tough to replace. Although given how little that mattered last season maybe it turns out chemistry is overrated after all. Don't tell Gardy.
12/7 vs. NEW ORLEANS (RPI 346/kenpom 346): Now things get really, really ugly. You could probably talk yourself into the schedule so far, but these last four games are just nasty, starting with the worst of the worst in the Privateers and yes I had to look that up. They're also in the Southland starting this year after being independent (looked that up) after they used to be D-I but somehow dropped back into D-II or something like that and then got reinstated (remembering this on my own). Should be a fun game though for the first half at least since they're one of the most uptempo teams in the nation. I got news for you though. Ervin Johnson isn't walking through that door.
12/10 vs. SOUTH DAKOTA STATE (RPI 62/kenpom 103): I'm sure everyone is thrilled again because for some reason people love the stupid little teams from the Dakotas, but guess what? With Nate Wolters off to the NBA maybe SDSU just becomes a shitty little shithead team again. Remember when the Gophers played them last year without Wolters? Yeah it'll be like that again but probably worse because Jordan Dykstra probably still hasn't cut his hair. I don't know what he's waiting for. There is good news, however. According to their website there are ZERO Minnesota natives on the roster this year. So shut it already.
12/20 vs. NEBRASKA-OMAHA (RPI 285/kenpom 321): I think they've been a D-I team for like 2 years, which is usually a pretty bad sign. They kind of give the appearance of maybe being slightly interesting because 6 of their top 7 scorers from last season should be back. The first college hockey game I ever went to was UMD vs. Nebraska-Omaha. Their nickname is the Mavericks and they abbreviate their team NEOM. The college World Series is still in Omaha. I once had alligator in Omaha (not making that up...might have been Lincoln). I'm just writing random facts now. I once spent a night getting drunk in a hotel in Nebraska by myself. Here is what I wrote that night. Gripping.
12/28 vs. TEXAS A&M CORPUS CHRISTI (RPI 323/kenpom 309): Remember when these guys made the NCAA Tournament somehow and threw a little teeny tiny scare into Wisconsin before losing? Man that would have been awesome if they one, am I right? Since then they've had as many seasons with single-digit wins as double-digit, and I don't want to throw too many fancy stats at you or anything but not even winning 10 games in a season is a pretty good indicator of sucking and TAMUCC has back-to-back years with 6 total wins. I was going to try to find something good to say but I need to get a drink so let's just wrap this up.
The key to a good schedule is lots of games against teams in the 50-150 range and avoiding playing teams that are sub 200 and especially sub-300. The Gophers likely will have six or seven games against 200+ teams and might have three against teams in the top 100. A strong league can smooth that out but you have to, you know, win the games. It was always going to be an interesting season, but as Lewis Carroll once wrote, it's getting "interestinger and interestinger."
Tuesday, March 5, 2013
Gophers vs. Huskers Preview + Wednesday Tournaments
The Gophers play Nebraska in Lincoln, and although some of the pressure has been alleviated by the wins over Indiana and Penn State, which locked the Gophers into the NCAA Tournament, they can still close strong and get maybe as high as a 3 seed, or crash and end up around a 10. My hope is they get to a six to avoid the 1-2 seed in the second round if they advance, and I think two more wins would do it - whether the last two regular season games or one of them and a B10 tournament win - so this is still a pretty important game.
Since the last time the Gophers played Nebraska the Huskers have gone 2-5 with the two wins home games vs. Iowa and Penn State. In that time they've also played Ohio State and Michigan State at home, losing both by less than ten (7 and 9) so they're not exactly a juggernaut, but road games in the Big 10 are never easy even if Nebraska doesn't really have any impressive home upsets to point to.
Overall Nebraska is a pretty terrible team. They don't do anything particularly well other than take care of the basketball, are thoroughly mediocre on defense, and area terrible shooting team. You remember when the Gophers smoked them at Williams, right? The talent disparity between the two teams is glaring, and the only thing that kept Nebraska at all in the game (and the Gophers won by 19) was Ray Gallegos going coo-coo from three and scoring 30 points. Could that happen again but like, way more dramatic? I suppose, but Gallegos has only scored more than 11 points once in the seven games since then, everyone else on Nebraska sucks, and the Gophers look like they've finally figured things out again. If you're going to have a lull like the Gophers did, have it in the middle of the season, not the end. I choose to believe they're back.
Minnesota 70, Nebraska 53
Now on to Wednesday's tournaments.
ATLANTIC SUN
Another pretty terrible conference like the Big South, but the one thing the A-Sun has going for it is two dominant teams in Mercer and Florida Gulf Coast who are both in the top two in the conference in both offensive and defensive efficiency. When you're dealing with a low major you can forget about having a balanced, deep league and you just have to hope you have a squad or two that is good enough to grab some name recognition by beating, or at least scaring, its first round NCAA foe. Both these teams have a least a chance.
FAVORITE: Mercer. The Bears take the one seed by a game over FGC, but I'm not sure they're the better team. The Bears have a nice non-conference win over Florida State, but FGC beat Miami. Both come in hot with Mercer finishing out at 9-1 and the Eagles at 9-2, and the Eagles won their last meeting last week by 3. This is one of those conference tournaments where if the favorites win out and Mercer meets FGC in the Final it will be worth your time to watch. Probably.
SLEEPER: North Florida. Well, probably not, but they do have Will Wilson, who you may remember as the point guard who never ever ever scores. You will be happy to know that Wilson, who played 31.5 minutes per game this year, upped his scoring average to 3.6 per game, a career high, while upping his assists to 6.1 per game. His total points this season were 112, nearly doubling his career point total which stood at 121 coming into the year. And he did, in fact, finally break double figures in a game this year notching 13 against Jacksonville so congratulations. Will Wilson, we salute you.
W's PICK: Florida Gulf Coast. The Eagles are just more tested, having played four tournament teams this year (Miami, Duke, Iowa State, VCU) while Mercer has just New Mexico. Granted that all happened a long time ago and is pretty much irrelevant, but like I said, it's awfully tough to separate these teams.
PATRIOT LEAGUE
I know you're thinking whoopity-doo another terrible conference and you're right, but you're also sort of wrong too. This might be the best version of the Patriot League I can recall (although they're still ranked as just the 17th best conference by kenpom). Bucknell and Lehigh are top 100 teams with two others in the 100s and only Navy falling past #300. Might not sound like much, but it's a step in the right direction and you can see the difference finally allowing athletic scholarships can make.
FAVORITE: Bucknell. Unfortunately C.J. McCollum broke his foot in a game against VCU this winter (a game Lehigh lost by only four) so the Bison won the league crown and the #1 seed. That's not a slam on Bucknell, who are a very good team with wins over Purdue and LaSalle this season, it's just a bummer because most of the Lehigh team that beat Duke was back this year and McCollum is an amazing player. Even so, Bucknell's Mike Muscala is a stud as well who averaged a double-double while leading the conference in scoring and rebounding, and if the Bison get through they're absolutely a threat to steal a win in the tournament.
SLEEPER: Army. The Black Knights play at a pace considerably fast than anyone else in the Patriot and do so while shooting, and making, a ton of three pointers. That's the kind of team I like for a sleeper.
W's PICK: Bucknell. If McCollum returns from injury (even as of 3 days ago, the most recent article I could find, things are still up in the air) things get more interesting, but if he doesn't I expect Bucknell to run the table pretty easily.
OHIO VALLEY
Belmont moving in to the OVC was supposed to create a two-headed monster at the top of the conference with the Bruins and Murray State. The only problem was the Racers didn't hold up their end of the bargain, whiffing on their only real out of conference chance to get a big win against Colorado (and what a horrible schedule they put together) and going just 10-6 in conference. Belmont still has an outside chance at an at-large given good computer numbers and a 14-2 conference record but it's an outside shot at best and the OVC will most likely remain a one-bid league.
FAVORITE: Belmont. These guys have been relevant long enough that I can even tell you their two best players without looking it up - Ian Clark and Kerron Johnson - a pair of senior guards who have been this team's leaders forever. Their are three other upperclassmen starters as well and those five play the majority of the team's minutes and basically score all their points. They've been in the last two NCAA Tournaments but haven't broken through for a win yet. With that experience now could this be the year.
SLEEPER: Eastern Kentucky. Given Murray State's rough year and not even ranking in kenpom's Top 25 they might be a more appropriate sleeper than EKU - the team that finished with the second best record in the league and only team in the top 2 in both O and D efficiency in the OVC - but I'm pretty sure Murray is still the sexier pick since the media has bludgeoned us all over the head with them for years. The Colonels create a ton of turnovers but don't defend all that well, which is generally death to teams who play the Bruins. Still, they've probably got the best shot to knock them off.
W's PICK: Belmont. I feel like I'm picking a lot of favorites, but that's kind of how it works in these conferences. Also, to answer my earlier rhetorical question, no it's not the year. Belmont won't win an NCAA Tournament game again.
WEST COAST CONFERENCE
A pretty uninteresting conference tournament but in an interesting way. There are two possible NCAA teams here: Gonzaga (locked in, possible #1 seed) and St. Mary's (right on the bubble). What St. Mary's could really use is another quality win, but the only way to get one at this point in the WCC is to beat Gonzaga. However, because of their seeds, beating Gonzaga is only possible in the WCC Tournament Final, which would put the Gaels in automatically. So either St. Mary's wins their way in, or they've already done enough to get the invite. Uninteresting in an interesting way, which is what I said if you had been paying attention.
FAVORITE: Gonzaga. Although the WCC is far better than a lot of other conferences I have or will be previewing (ranking 10th) there might not be a more prohibitive favorite in any conference than Gonzaga. The Zags are in line for a possible #1 seed, are 16-0 in conference play, and rank as the #4 team in the country according to kenpom. Sure, St. Mary's (rank #19), BYU (#71), and Santa Clara (#87) are quality teams with their eyes on the upset, but Gonzaga has crushed all three of these teams this year.
SLEEPER: San Francisco. It's not easy to pick a sleeper here when the top four just beat up on each other and killed everyone else (between the four good teams only three of their losses came to other teams) so I'll go with the team that picked up one of those (over BYU) and has an interesting statistical profile. The Dons, who are coached by Rex Walters which feels relevant for some reason, hit 40.2% of their three pointers this year, good for 9th best in the nation. So that's something. Although the way the WCC sets things up it's almost guaranteed to be either Gonzaga or St. Mary's coming out of here.
W's PICK: St. Mary's. This isn't an indictment of Gonzaga, because I do think they're a Final Four contender who deserves a one seed, but St. Mary's is going to be playing as if their lives depend on it in this game - and their tournament lives very well might. I think they're flying under the radar a bit, especially since Gonzaga swept them, and I don't want to have to stop watching Matthew Dellavedova yet. If loving that floppy haired little muppet is wrong I don't want to be right.
NORTHEASTERN CONFERENCE
You want to talk about a conference only a mother could love, let's go with the NEC. They're consistently ranked in the bottom quartile for conference strength, and if you look at the list of teams I don't know that they've ever even been close in an NCAA Tournament game, much less won one. There are a handful of other conferences who can never rise out of the bottom of the barrel as a whole, but outside of the SWAC I can recall each one of those conferences at least being competitive with many of them actually winning games here and there. Not so the NEC. Where have you gone, Charles Jones?
FAVORITE: Robert Morris. The closest thing the NEC puts out as a power program, the Colonials have missed the NCAA Tournament each of the last two seasons despite winning at least 12 conference games each year and advancing to the NEC Tournament Championship game. Both years they lost to LIU-Brooklyn, which is once again a viable scenario this season. Also researching that led me to the box score that reminded me that Robert Morris took Villanova to overtime as a 15 seed three years ago which just goes to show that I don't know what the hell I'm talking about.
SLEEPER: Bryant. "Who?" is what your asking and I don't blame you. As far back as 2008 Bryant was still in D-II before starting to transition to Division I. Four terrible years later (20 total wins including 2 last year) here are the Bulldogs in their first season eligible for the NCAA Tournament and sitting at 12-6 in the conference (good for a number 2 seed). Cool story, bro.
W's PICK: Bryant. It's too good of a story, although if they do make it and it gets crammed down our throats like everything else ESPN latches on too I'm going to regret rooting for this to happen. The Bulldogs aren't just a novelty - they rank #1 in the NEC in offensive efficiency and have two 17+ ppg scorers who cover you on the perimeter and in the paint with three other 9+ point scorers. They probably play too crappy on the defensive side to threaten anybody in the NCAA Tournament but as far as the NEC goes? It's in play. Sorry Robert Morris, maybe fourth time is the charm?
As far as Tuesday's results, Arkansas - a pretty big longshot as it stood - got crushed by Missouri which should take them out of the running for an at-large. Southern Miss lost by just four to Marshall, but that pretty much kilt them as well. Notre Dame probably sealed it with a win over St. Johns, while Iowa kept the dream alive by beating Illinois (who is probably safe either way). In the big elimination game between Ole Miss and Alabama the Rebels took care of business, beating Bama by four in a game they basically controlled from the tip so they're still alive, while Memphis locked up their bid, if they hadn't already, by taking down UTEP on the road. Meanwhile Boise State looked every bit a tournament team at UNLV, but because they didn't get the win they remain an absolutely difficult read. Just looking at season results and eye test they seem legit, but are about as hard on the bubble as possible. Interesting team to watch.
Wednesday's action features a nice mix of teams who really could use a big win - Villanova (vs. Georgetown), Iowa State (vs. Oklahoma State), Maryland (vs. UNC) - can lock up a bid with a win - Oklahoma (@ WVU), Cal (vs. Stanford), San Diego State (vs. Air Force), Minnesota (@ Nebraska) - and team's on shaky ground who can't afford a loss to an inferior opponent - Temple (@ Fordham), LaSalle (vs. G. Washington), and VCU (vs. Richmond). In other words, there's a ton going on that could shift a whole bunch of teams a whole bunch of lines. Should be fun night. I'll spend it watching the Gophers instead.
Since the last time the Gophers played Nebraska the Huskers have gone 2-5 with the two wins home games vs. Iowa and Penn State. In that time they've also played Ohio State and Michigan State at home, losing both by less than ten (7 and 9) so they're not exactly a juggernaut, but road games in the Big 10 are never easy even if Nebraska doesn't really have any impressive home upsets to point to.
Overall Nebraska is a pretty terrible team. They don't do anything particularly well other than take care of the basketball, are thoroughly mediocre on defense, and area terrible shooting team. You remember when the Gophers smoked them at Williams, right? The talent disparity between the two teams is glaring, and the only thing that kept Nebraska at all in the game (and the Gophers won by 19) was Ray Gallegos going coo-coo from three and scoring 30 points. Could that happen again but like, way more dramatic? I suppose, but Gallegos has only scored more than 11 points once in the seven games since then, everyone else on Nebraska sucks, and the Gophers look like they've finally figured things out again. If you're going to have a lull like the Gophers did, have it in the middle of the season, not the end. I choose to believe they're back.
Minnesota 70, Nebraska 53
Now on to Wednesday's tournaments.
ATLANTIC SUN
Another pretty terrible conference like the Big South, but the one thing the A-Sun has going for it is two dominant teams in Mercer and Florida Gulf Coast who are both in the top two in the conference in both offensive and defensive efficiency. When you're dealing with a low major you can forget about having a balanced, deep league and you just have to hope you have a squad or two that is good enough to grab some name recognition by beating, or at least scaring, its first round NCAA foe. Both these teams have a least a chance.
FAVORITE: Mercer. The Bears take the one seed by a game over FGC, but I'm not sure they're the better team. The Bears have a nice non-conference win over Florida State, but FGC beat Miami. Both come in hot with Mercer finishing out at 9-1 and the Eagles at 9-2, and the Eagles won their last meeting last week by 3. This is one of those conference tournaments where if the favorites win out and Mercer meets FGC in the Final it will be worth your time to watch. Probably.
SLEEPER: North Florida. Well, probably not, but they do have Will Wilson, who you may remember as the point guard who never ever ever scores. You will be happy to know that Wilson, who played 31.5 minutes per game this year, upped his scoring average to 3.6 per game, a career high, while upping his assists to 6.1 per game. His total points this season were 112, nearly doubling his career point total which stood at 121 coming into the year. And he did, in fact, finally break double figures in a game this year notching 13 against Jacksonville so congratulations. Will Wilson, we salute you.
W's PICK: Florida Gulf Coast. The Eagles are just more tested, having played four tournament teams this year (Miami, Duke, Iowa State, VCU) while Mercer has just New Mexico. Granted that all happened a long time ago and is pretty much irrelevant, but like I said, it's awfully tough to separate these teams.
PATRIOT LEAGUE
I know you're thinking whoopity-doo another terrible conference and you're right, but you're also sort of wrong too. This might be the best version of the Patriot League I can recall (although they're still ranked as just the 17th best conference by kenpom). Bucknell and Lehigh are top 100 teams with two others in the 100s and only Navy falling past #300. Might not sound like much, but it's a step in the right direction and you can see the difference finally allowing athletic scholarships can make.
FAVORITE: Bucknell. Unfortunately C.J. McCollum broke his foot in a game against VCU this winter (a game Lehigh lost by only four) so the Bison won the league crown and the #1 seed. That's not a slam on Bucknell, who are a very good team with wins over Purdue and LaSalle this season, it's just a bummer because most of the Lehigh team that beat Duke was back this year and McCollum is an amazing player. Even so, Bucknell's Mike Muscala is a stud as well who averaged a double-double while leading the conference in scoring and rebounding, and if the Bison get through they're absolutely a threat to steal a win in the tournament.
SLEEPER: Army. The Black Knights play at a pace considerably fast than anyone else in the Patriot and do so while shooting, and making, a ton of three pointers. That's the kind of team I like for a sleeper.
W's PICK: Bucknell. If McCollum returns from injury (even as of 3 days ago, the most recent article I could find, things are still up in the air) things get more interesting, but if he doesn't I expect Bucknell to run the table pretty easily.
OHIO VALLEY
Belmont moving in to the OVC was supposed to create a two-headed monster at the top of the conference with the Bruins and Murray State. The only problem was the Racers didn't hold up their end of the bargain, whiffing on their only real out of conference chance to get a big win against Colorado (and what a horrible schedule they put together) and going just 10-6 in conference. Belmont still has an outside chance at an at-large given good computer numbers and a 14-2 conference record but it's an outside shot at best and the OVC will most likely remain a one-bid league.
FAVORITE: Belmont. These guys have been relevant long enough that I can even tell you their two best players without looking it up - Ian Clark and Kerron Johnson - a pair of senior guards who have been this team's leaders forever. Their are three other upperclassmen starters as well and those five play the majority of the team's minutes and basically score all their points. They've been in the last two NCAA Tournaments but haven't broken through for a win yet. With that experience now could this be the year.
SLEEPER: Eastern Kentucky. Given Murray State's rough year and not even ranking in kenpom's Top 25 they might be a more appropriate sleeper than EKU - the team that finished with the second best record in the league and only team in the top 2 in both O and D efficiency in the OVC - but I'm pretty sure Murray is still the sexier pick since the media has bludgeoned us all over the head with them for years. The Colonels create a ton of turnovers but don't defend all that well, which is generally death to teams who play the Bruins. Still, they've probably got the best shot to knock them off.
W's PICK: Belmont. I feel like I'm picking a lot of favorites, but that's kind of how it works in these conferences. Also, to answer my earlier rhetorical question, no it's not the year. Belmont won't win an NCAA Tournament game again.
WEST COAST CONFERENCE
A pretty uninteresting conference tournament but in an interesting way. There are two possible NCAA teams here: Gonzaga (locked in, possible #1 seed) and St. Mary's (right on the bubble). What St. Mary's could really use is another quality win, but the only way to get one at this point in the WCC is to beat Gonzaga. However, because of their seeds, beating Gonzaga is only possible in the WCC Tournament Final, which would put the Gaels in automatically. So either St. Mary's wins their way in, or they've already done enough to get the invite. Uninteresting in an interesting way, which is what I said if you had been paying attention.
FAVORITE: Gonzaga. Although the WCC is far better than a lot of other conferences I have or will be previewing (ranking 10th) there might not be a more prohibitive favorite in any conference than Gonzaga. The Zags are in line for a possible #1 seed, are 16-0 in conference play, and rank as the #4 team in the country according to kenpom. Sure, St. Mary's (rank #19), BYU (#71), and Santa Clara (#87) are quality teams with their eyes on the upset, but Gonzaga has crushed all three of these teams this year.
SLEEPER: San Francisco. It's not easy to pick a sleeper here when the top four just beat up on each other and killed everyone else (between the four good teams only three of their losses came to other teams) so I'll go with the team that picked up one of those (over BYU) and has an interesting statistical profile. The Dons, who are coached by Rex Walters which feels relevant for some reason, hit 40.2% of their three pointers this year, good for 9th best in the nation. So that's something. Although the way the WCC sets things up it's almost guaranteed to be either Gonzaga or St. Mary's coming out of here.
W's PICK: St. Mary's. This isn't an indictment of Gonzaga, because I do think they're a Final Four contender who deserves a one seed, but St. Mary's is going to be playing as if their lives depend on it in this game - and their tournament lives very well might. I think they're flying under the radar a bit, especially since Gonzaga swept them, and I don't want to have to stop watching Matthew Dellavedova yet. If loving that floppy haired little muppet is wrong I don't want to be right.
NORTHEASTERN CONFERENCE
You want to talk about a conference only a mother could love, let's go with the NEC. They're consistently ranked in the bottom quartile for conference strength, and if you look at the list of teams I don't know that they've ever even been close in an NCAA Tournament game, much less won one. There are a handful of other conferences who can never rise out of the bottom of the barrel as a whole, but outside of the SWAC I can recall each one of those conferences at least being competitive with many of them actually winning games here and there. Not so the NEC. Where have you gone, Charles Jones?
FAVORITE: Robert Morris. The closest thing the NEC puts out as a power program, the Colonials have missed the NCAA Tournament each of the last two seasons despite winning at least 12 conference games each year and advancing to the NEC Tournament Championship game. Both years they lost to LIU-Brooklyn, which is once again a viable scenario this season. Also researching that led me to the box score that reminded me that Robert Morris took Villanova to overtime as a 15 seed three years ago which just goes to show that I don't know what the hell I'm talking about.
SLEEPER: Bryant. "Who?" is what your asking and I don't blame you. As far back as 2008 Bryant was still in D-II before starting to transition to Division I. Four terrible years later (20 total wins including 2 last year) here are the Bulldogs in their first season eligible for the NCAA Tournament and sitting at 12-6 in the conference (good for a number 2 seed). Cool story, bro.
W's PICK: Bryant. It's too good of a story, although if they do make it and it gets crammed down our throats like everything else ESPN latches on too I'm going to regret rooting for this to happen. The Bulldogs aren't just a novelty - they rank #1 in the NEC in offensive efficiency and have two 17+ ppg scorers who cover you on the perimeter and in the paint with three other 9+ point scorers. They probably play too crappy on the defensive side to threaten anybody in the NCAA Tournament but as far as the NEC goes? It's in play. Sorry Robert Morris, maybe fourth time is the charm?
As far as Tuesday's results, Arkansas - a pretty big longshot as it stood - got crushed by Missouri which should take them out of the running for an at-large. Southern Miss lost by just four to Marshall, but that pretty much kilt them as well. Notre Dame probably sealed it with a win over St. Johns, while Iowa kept the dream alive by beating Illinois (who is probably safe either way). In the big elimination game between Ole Miss and Alabama the Rebels took care of business, beating Bama by four in a game they basically controlled from the tip so they're still alive, while Memphis locked up their bid, if they hadn't already, by taking down UTEP on the road. Meanwhile Boise State looked every bit a tournament team at UNLV, but because they didn't get the win they remain an absolutely difficult read. Just looking at season results and eye test they seem legit, but are about as hard on the bubble as possible. Interesting team to watch.
Wednesday's action features a nice mix of teams who really could use a big win - Villanova (vs. Georgetown), Iowa State (vs. Oklahoma State), Maryland (vs. UNC) - can lock up a bid with a win - Oklahoma (@ WVU), Cal (vs. Stanford), San Diego State (vs. Air Force), Minnesota (@ Nebraska) - and team's on shaky ground who can't afford a loss to an inferior opponent - Temple (@ Fordham), LaSalle (vs. G. Washington), and VCU (vs. Richmond). In other words, there's a ton going on that could shift a whole bunch of teams a whole bunch of lines. Should be fun night. I'll spend it watching the Gophers instead.
Wednesday, October 10, 2012
NCAA Hoops Preview: Teams 59-53
I could sit here and write up some thoughts on the baseball playoffs, but I'm going to save all that jazz for one big post maybe later this week. Instead, here are some more NCAAB Previews, teams #59-#53.
59. NEW MEXICO LOBOS. Losing double-double machine Drew Gordon is going to be tough to handle, but the Lobos get their entire back court back from last season's NCAA team and Alford has turned these guys into kind of a MWC dynasty - or at least in the mix at the top every year. This season will depend largely on just how good Kendall Williams can be. He's had two very good years so far in Albuquerque, and if he can take the next step and become one of the best players in the league they should be back in the running for a league title and/or an at-large bid. Plus Williams is from Ranco Cucamonga and if you don't think that's a fun city name to say then you're probably already dead.
58. GEORGETOWN HOYAS. G-Town loses a ton of talent in three departing starters (their three top scorers last year), including Henry Sims who took over for Greg Monroe as the big man with guard skills. Luckily they've got a heck of a player back in Otto Porter who had a stellar freshman year and now becomes the Hoyas alpha dog. He doesn't have the ball-handling or outside touch that Sims and Monroe displayed, but he is already an excellent passer and smart player with the ball so he could easily develop into that same mold. In the last two seasons the Hoyas have lost all of their big 3 guards and their two best post players so they're going to be looking for somebody to become a true playmaker. If you play fantasy college basketball (TREVOR DON'T READ THIS) look at Markel Starks as a sleeper. He's shown he can be an explosive scorer at times and this season he'll be their #1 perimeter option.
57. LEHIGH MOUNTAIN HAWKS. Naturally everyone loved Lehigh beating Duke because Duke is satan and hitler all in one, but Lehigh has the look of a team that isn't done quite yet. They have four of their starters back from last year (their four top scorers) including last year's Patriot League player of the year and hero to all C.J. McCollum (30 pts vs. Duke) as well as Gabe Knutson (17 & 8 vs. Duke). Can a team from the Patriot get an at-large bid? It would be incredibly difficult and I don't think it's ever happened, but maybe this is the year. Although the league RPI will be way down and thus drag Lehigh's down, they will have some chances to pick-up big wins they'll need to have a chance. They open at Baylor, then if they can get past Robert Morris in the Preseason NIT (no sure thing) they would get Pitt and a win their would send them to Madison Square Garden for two more cracks at big-time schools (Michigan, Kansas State, Virginia). They also play North Texas and Quinnipiac who could both end up as RPI Top 100 schools, as could conference foe Bucknell. Win enough of those games and then lose only 1-2 in conference/conf. tournament play? Probably better to win the conference tournament, but watch that Lehigh/Pitt game, could be huge for the little guys.
56. PITT PANTHERS. Hey, speaking of Pitt, here they are. And if you're sick of the Gophers having a terrible non-conference schedule you should get a look at Pitt's. If they don't get to Madison Square Garden that is absolutely brutally bad other than Detroit. I suppose they'll play plenty of good teams in conference play, but man having Bethune-Cookman, Delaware State, and Kennesaw State all on the same schedule should be outlawed. Also it seems Travon Woodall now goes by Tray, which is not as irritating as Terrell Holloway going by Tu, Michael Gilchrist or Maurice Drew adding an extra hyphenated last name, or especially Titus Young adding SR. to the back of his jersey after having a son named Titus, but it's still irritating and I hope Pitt loses every game. I never liked them anyway. Brandin Knight sucked and Carl Krauser was even worse. [NOTE: Somehow I completely missed that Trey Ziegler transferred here from CMU and is eligible this year, so bump them up a few spots.]
55. MARYLAND TERRAPINS. Maryland loses leading scorer Terrell Stoglin to, well, not the NBA since he didn't get drafted but to somewhere, but this might be one of those addition by subtraction kind of situations which yes is possible just look here smart guy: (-2)-(-4) = 2 IN YOUR FACE. But what that means for the Terps is that a bunch of guys who are used to standing around watching Stoglin jack shots (38% of shots taken by Maryland last year with him on the floor were his, 3rd highest in the NCAA) are suddenly going to have freedom to play ball and will be like a bunch of college freshman living away from their parents for the first time and will probably go a little nuts. Of course, they're also pretty unproven due to never getting the ball, so Maryland should be a mixed bag this year. Like your mom.
54. UTEP MINERS. I know what you're thinking, and to be honest I'm not really sure why I have UTEP this high either, but I liked watching this team (the couple of times I found them on TV last year) and I think there may be something brewing here. They're a really young team and John Bohannon may be the best center you've never heard of. He made a huge leap from his freshman to sophomore year, and if he does something similar again this season he could be the best center in Conference USA that I can think of right now. They also get their point guard back who was one of the top assisters in the conference and I don't know man. They're young and fun like Kate Upton right now, and the way the team is constructed kind of reminds me of those awesome Memphis teams. Or something. I don't know, but now you're thinking about Kate Upton so it doesn't really matter what I say anymore.
53. TEMPLE OWLS. The Owls lose two thirds of their back court to graduation, but should still contend at the top of the A-10 because returning guard Khalif Wyatt may be the best player in the conference. I also like him because Temple is kind of a consistently successful but boring program, and Wyatt threw a little excitement out there this summer when he was arrested for soliciting a prostitute in Atlantic City. He cooperated and only had to pay a fine and do some community service so he'll back and ready to play, but I can't wait to see some of the signs and hear some nice chants when Temple is on the road. Should be fun.
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