Syracuse Recap and Arkansas Preview

Well.....damn.  I sure wasn't expecting that.  Syracuse is a top 10 team, and not just because they're ranked in the top 10 - they're legitimately one of the handful of National Title contenders.  I kind of expected the entire game to look like the first four minutes, but in reality without those first four minutes this game might have had a completely different outcome because the Gophers either outplayed or played right with Syracuse for the majority of the game.  The Orange had to play pretty much the entire 40 minutes, and that's more than I was expecting.

I wish I could get more in depth, but a combination of my uncharacteristic ability to get out of a late meeting, some technology issues, and my kids being completely batshit insane meant that I missed a lot more than I saw.  From what I saw, and that stats, a few points:

• Rebounding was dead square even at 32-32.  I really, really did not expect that.  As much as it kills my preconceived narrative for this season, and although it's just one game, perhaps the Gophers will be ok in the paint this year.  Eliason suddenly looking like more than "a decent back-up", Joey King, whether he figured it out on his own or if Pitino beat it into his head, has figured out he needs to be in the paint not living on the perimeter and is giving off a real Dusty Rychart vibe, and Oto Osenieks is not 100% incompetent as a big.  Now they get a possibly rejuvenated Mo Walker back.  Curiouser and curiouser.
• Turnovers.  Gross.  Malik Smith has a Maverick like handle, but who doesn't love a guy who's always looking for a heat check.  Also, only seven guys played all night for the Gophers.  I dig. 
• Draustin Hollins is Draustin Hollins.  Even when they play a bit off, they're still the best players' on the team and will keep the Gophers in pretty much any game.  Dre Mathieu as the third wheel might be the biggest key for the team this year.  The X-Factor if you're into that kind of stupid thing.
• Really enjoyed seeing how Pitino coached/game-planned against a legit opponent.  I really liked how the Gophers switched defenses/offenses randomly at times.  Like, when they were in a 2-3 and then all of a sudden on one possession they jumped the ball-handler as he crossed half court.  There were a few of those moments and they were awesome.  I'm not saying you can't be successful by running the same thing over and over again (see tonight's opponent and the 2-3 zone) but I like a little variety in my life.  Which is why I got married at 23 years old.   

 So, despite a a really good effort by the team, success or failure for teh Gophers in this tournament depends on their beating Arkansas tomorrow.  A loss vs. Arkansas means a  trip to the 7th place game, which will almost certainly be against Chaminade, which likely means a 1-2 record with zero wins over D-I teams.  That's no good.  What is good, is that the Gophers should be able to handle the Razorbacks.

If you watched the Gophers vs. Syracuse that's good, because Arkansas is kind of like a mish mash of those two teams.  Like if you took the Gophers and their pressing and uptempo style of play and mixed the DNA with the Syracuse DNA of having a whole bunch of long athletic players and mixed them you'd get Arkansas - but they would be the Danny DeVito version, not the Arnold Schwatzenegger one.  That makes me seem old, doesn't it?  Well that's because I am really old.  Let's just say that Arkansas is kind of like Syracuse and kind of like the Gophers but way worse than either.

I caught a little bit of the Cal/Arkansas game today, and although the Razorbacks will press like crazy and create turnovers that way (and that's how the Gophers lose this one, if they do, tons of turnovers) but when the press is broken or in the half court there defense is absolutely horrendous.  Similarly, if they can create those turnovers and get easy buckets or if they can get out in transition and create easy opportunities that way they can be dangerous, but if you can cut off their early break the half court offense is mostly one-on-one isolation plays and crashing the boards for second chances.

Really, this is a game where if the Gophers play sound fundamentally they should handle Arkansas with little issue.  Of course, you never know, but I'm encouraged and optimistic after tonight.

Minnesota 88, Arkansas 73.

Gopher 2013-2014 Basketball Schedule Revealed

The Gopher hoop non-conference schedule was revealed Tuesday.  And here it is.  Rankings are from last year.

11/8 vs. LEHIGH  (RPI 107, kenpom 96):  A possible top 100 team is always a solid way to kick-off the new year, however the Gophers are a year too late.  The players responsible for that awesome Lehigh win over Duke in the NCAA Tournament two years ago have graduated, with C.J. McCollum in the NBA and Gabe Knutson probably like, filing taxes or something since Lehigh is a nerd school.  Nerds and wrestling I think.  Definitely not basketball. 

11/12 vs. MONTANA (RPI 74, kenpom 160): Hey an NCAA Tournament team last year!  Let's rock and roll!  Actually the Grizzlies have a nice little program going with back-to-back Big Sky Championships and despite losing two of their top three scorers Montana is the most likely non-conference home opponent to end up in the NCAA Tournament this season.  Yes, that is correct.  I'm serious.  No you shut up.

11/16 @ RICHMOND (RPI 91, kenpom 83):  The back half of a home-and-home started by Tubby Smith, Richard Pitino honored the commitment so the Gopher will face the Spiders in their only true home game of the non-conference schedule.  Richmond brings back three starters from last year's totally mediocre team, and not only might this be a road game but is likely to be the toughest Gopher opponent this year outside of the Maui Invitational.  Richmond plays at a pretty slow pace under Chris Mooney so I really like this one as a test to see if the Gophers can impose their will and influence tempo in a tough environment.  Could be a pretty good barometer for the entire season, although I believe it's pronounced thermometer. 

11/19 vs. COASTAL CAROLINA (RPI 259, kenpom 226):  Not really the Gophers' fault they got stuck with these guys as their "first round mainland opponent" in the Maui Invitational, but they weren't good last year and lost their starting back court so I'm guessing they aren't going to be good this year either.  On the bright side, you can count on at least one member of the Twin Cities' sports media to bust out an article about what a Chanticleer is (besides tasty, terrific pizza).  I predict Reusse, especially if the Gophers lose the previous game at Richmond.  He loves that condescending shit, too bad he doesn't do it well.

11/21 vs. WOFFORD (RPI 250, kenpom 256):  Wofford has really fallen off since the great Noah Dahlman brought the Terriers to back-to-back NCAA Tournaments (and near wins against Wisconsin and BYU), but at least they are bringing some firepower back from last year's terrible team.  Plus they got a guy named Indiana Faithfull which is pretty fricking crazy.

11/25 vs. SYRACUSE (RPI 14,  in Maui, kenpom 8):  The jewel of the schedule without a doubt, because Syracuse should be in the mix to be a top 10 team again this year.  Also, earlier when I wrote about this match-up I mentioned it would be the great back court of the Gophers vs. the great front court of Syracuse, but it turns out I forgot about Michael Gbinije.  He's a combo guard who transferred to the Orange after one year at Duke.  He was the #29 recruit in the country coming out of high school.  He's also 6-7 and should play at the top of the most wing-spanny zone I've ever seen, which could have all five guys at 6-7 or taller at times.  As that weird creepy witch said in the Robin Hood with Kevin Costner, "We're doomed."

11/26 vs. ARKANSAS (RPI 95/kenpom 71)(CAL (RPI 54/kenpom 56) in Maui:  Cal should be the better match-up here with both teams saw their top player leave school early to enter the NBA Draft (Cal = Allen Crabbe, first round pick; Arkansas = B.J. Young, undrafted - ha ha!) because Cal brings back Justin Cobbs (back in more ways than one) and most of their team from last year while Arkansas also loses Marshawn Powell, the team's second leading scorer, who left the team to go play in Europe or something.  This will either be an addition by subtraction year for Arkansas or subtraction by subtraction and probably that second one.  Hope for Cal.

11/27 vs. Team 3 in Maui, anywhere from Gonzaga (RPI 6/kenpom 4) to Chaminade (not in D-I):  Other options are Baylor (RPI 70/kenpom 26) and Dayton (RPI 114/kenpom 67).  Obviously the better the opponent the better the potential results, but seeing as how it's not a random draw for each game you need to win to continue getting quality opponents.  Syracuse will be tough, but losing to them and then beating Cal and Baylor or something would still be an outstanding result.  Most likely results are a loss in round 1 and then a win over both Arkansas and Dayton.  Not bad, but not great.  Like a night with your mom.

12/3 vs. FLORIDA STATE (RPI 84/kenpom 124):  Andrew Wiggins screwed up everything by choosing Kansas over the Seminoles and now this game is more yawn than not yawn.  Last year was one of the worst year's these guys have had under Leonard Hamilton, and with Michael Snaer gone the question is if they'll be worse.  Most the rest of the team is back and guys like Okaro White and Terrance Shannon could certainly take a leap, and there's a nice freshman coming in but Snaer was the do-everything team leader type that's tough to replace.  Although given how little that mattered last season maybe it turns out chemistry is overrated after all.  Don't tell Gardy. 

12/7 vs. NEW ORLEANS (RPI 346/kenpom 346):  Now things get really, really ugly.  You could probably talk yourself into the schedule so far, but these last four games are just nasty, starting with the worst of the worst in the Privateers and yes I had to look that up.  They're also in the Southland starting this year after being independent (looked that up) after they used to be D-I but somehow dropped back into D-II or something like that and then got reinstated (remembering this on my own).  Should be a fun game though for the first half at least since they're one of the most uptempo teams in the nation.  I got news for you though.  Ervin Johnson isn't walking through that door. 

12/10 vs. SOUTH DAKOTA STATE (RPI 62/kenpom 103):  I'm sure everyone is thrilled again because for some reason people love the stupid little teams from the Dakotas, but guess what?  With Nate Wolters off to the NBA maybe SDSU just becomes a shitty little shithead team again.  Remember when the Gophers played them last year without Wolters?  Yeah it'll be like that again but probably worse because Jordan Dykstra probably still hasn't cut his hair.  I don't know what he's waiting for.  There is good news, however.  According to their website there are ZERO Minnesota natives on the roster this year.  So shut it already.

12/20 vs. NEBRASKA-OMAHA (RPI 285/kenpom 321):  I think they've been a D-I team for like 2 years, which is usually a pretty bad sign.  They kind of give the appearance of maybe being slightly interesting because 6 of their top 7 scorers from last season should be back.  The first college hockey game I ever went to was UMD vs. Nebraska-Omaha.  Their nickname is the Mavericks and they abbreviate their team NEOM.  The college World Series is still in Omaha.  I once had alligator in Omaha (not making that up...might have been Lincoln).  I'm just writing random facts now.  I once spent a night getting drunk in a hotel in Nebraska by myself.  Here is what I wrote that night.  Gripping.

12/28 vs.  TEXAS A&M CORPUS CHRISTI (RPI 323/kenpom 309):  Remember when these guys made the NCAA Tournament somehow and threw a little teeny tiny scare into Wisconsin before losing?  Man that would have been awesome if they one, am I right?  Since then they've had as many seasons with single-digit wins as double-digit, and I don't want to throw too many fancy stats at you or anything but not even winning 10 games in a season is a pretty good indicator of sucking and TAMUCC has back-to-back years with 6 total wins.  I was going to try to find something good to say but I need to get a drink so let's just wrap this up.


The key to a good schedule is lots of games against teams in the 50-150 range and avoiding playing teams that are sub 200 and especially sub-300.  The Gophers likely will have six or seven games against 200+ teams and might have three against teams in the top 100.  A strong league can smooth that out but you have to, you know, win the games.  It was always going to be an interesting season, but as Lewis Carroll once wrote, it's getting "interestinger and interestinger."

Welcome Back to the NCAA Tournament

Well the Gophers are back in the NCAA Tournament and I gotta say despite everything else it feels damn good.  I'm also pretty pleased with the 11 seed, because it keeps the Gophers away from the #1s and #2s as long as possible, although a possible second round match-up with Florida would probably be every bit the bloodbath you'd see against a #1 or #2.  I'll be back with a preview of UCLA on Wednesday night (and then will go radio silent (except twitter) until the next week as we take our annual trip to Chicago to watch all the games from the Dayton Bar with Bogart.)  I've also been informed that the Dayton Bar is also an Ole Miss bar so I'm looking forward to watching them hopefully beat the Badgers.

Anyway, here are the toughest things I'm struggling with as a fill out my bracket:

1)  Florida or Georgetown?  There were three teams I wanted to put in the final four for sure:  Louisville, Florida, or Georgetown.  Unfortunately, now I can't do that and need to make a choice between the Gators and Hoyas since they'd play in the Sweet 16 if everything holds.  I love Florida because they have so many weapons and can score inside or out, and they compliment that with great defense.  Georgetown is also an amazing defensive team, and they have Big East Player of the Year Otto Porter who is good enough to carry that offense on his back a la John Wallace or Kemba Walker.  I hate that I have to choose, but I'm going with the Gators.

2)  What do do with Wisconsin.  I hate this.  I was all set to have both Wisconsin (because I hate them) and Kansas State (because they, and Bruce Weber, suck) to lose in the first round, but it all broke wrong.  Wisconsin gets an Ole Miss team who I don't think can compete with them, and Kansas State gets the play-in winner of LaSalle and Boise State, neither of whom is very good at all.  I almost have to take K-State and Wisconsin to both win their first round match-up, and if that happens there's no way K-State can beat the Badgers because Ryan can coach circles around Weber and the Wildcats are perfectly undisciplined enough to fall right into Wisconsin's traps.  So I have Wisconsin in the Sweet 16.  Feels really wrong and icky and dirty, but since they're always the luckiest team in America you can't rule it out.  I'm still rooting against them though.  If you don't it means you hate America.

3)  Who comes out of the West?  In every other region it's come down to one or two difficult decisions between teams I think are good enough to make the Final Four, while in the West I'm decided who is least flawed among the contenders.  Gonzaga and New Mexico are good teams no doubt, but neither has been tested as often or as consistently.  Both have some good non-conference wins of course but Gonzaga ran through a pretty crappy conference and although New Mexico played in a good MWC I just don't know if I'm buying it.  That leaves Ohio State, about whom there are no questions regarding having been tested, but unless their offense continues to be about more than DeShaun Thomas they're going to struggle.  If anything wacky happens I'm betting it's in this region, because there are some really weak teams for their seed (Arizona, K-State, Wisco, etc.).  Right now I'm going to buy the Buckeyes.  The team's offense is coming together with Thomas finding plenty of help, the defense is top-notch as usual, and the coaching is solid.

4)  Can Louisville Survive?  I think the Cardinals are the best team in the NCAA and my pick to win it all, but holy hell is the Midwest Region a bitch.  I consider Oklahoma State, St. Louis, and Michigan State as dark horse Final Four candidates and sure enough, they're all here.  The only real saving grace is that Duke is the #2 here and Duke sucks so at least they catch a break there.  Even some of the really high seeds (#12 Oregon, #14 Valparaiso) are pretty dangerous.  Whoever gets out of this region is going to have to have done some seriously good work.  Luckily Louisville hits my check list - come in on a high note (not necessarily a conference tournament victory but just playing well), good guards who can make free throws, great defense, and a team who can shoot without being dependent on the 3.  So yeah, despite the tough region Louisville is my champ.

5)  Who upsets Kansas?  I know Kansas has kind of shed that choker label, what with the two Final Fours since 2008 and all, but there's no way this version of Kansas is Final Four bound so the question becomes where do they get bounced?  I'm betting they don't get out of the first weekend with North Carolina knocking them out as one of the toughest 8 seeds I can remember.  I know Carolina has been talked about as being "down" this year and maybe they are with 10 losses, but do you realize their worst loss this year was to Texas?  And after that their worst loss was to Butler?  The rest are 3 losses to Miami, 2 to Duke, and one each to Indiana, Virginia, and NC State which means the Heels don't have a single loss to a team outside of kenpom's top 100 teams.  They're probably a little too perimeter dependent to make a significant run, but they should dispatch Villanova with ease and then in a one-time game against Kansas?  It could happen, kids, it could happen.

6)  How good is Miami? That's an important question, because I don't believe in Indiana and I don't believe in Marquette, which means it's either Miami or Syracuse coming out of the East for me.  I do expect Syracuse to beat the Hoosiers and face the Canes with a Final Four berth on the line, so it becomes a matter if I think Miami is good enough to handle the Cuse.  As it turns out, I think they are.  They're experienced enough to not get rattled and they have the guard play needed to break down the Orange's zone with four guys who are lights out from three, and they play excellent defense, rebound well, and come in off an ACC Tournament Championship.  Their free throw shooting is a bit suspect, but otherwise Miami is another team who looks really, really good and I have them in my Final Four.

That's it for now, back later with a Gophers/UCLA preview.

Even More Tournament Information

Congrats go out to Long Island, South Dakota State, and Valpo for grabbing their league's autobids last night.  Absolutely nothing else of significance happened.  I, for one, can't wait to hear way too many stories about Nate Wolters as we wait for the real tournament to get going.  Here's what's kicking off Wednesday.

PAC-12 CONFERENCE
Welcome back, Pac-12.  After several years of crappy play and getting just 1-2 teams in the tournament, the Pac will likely have five teams receive bids this year.  The teams are still mostly terrible, with the exception of UCLA who is talented but mind-boggling, and I am going to definitely take the UNDER on Pac-12 wins once the brackets are revealed and the lines come out, but it's at least a step back towards respectability.
FAVORITE:  UCLA.  Despite a rough start to the season that included an OT win versus UC-Irvine and a loss to Cal Poly the Bruins figured it out and won seven of their final nine games to take the conference regular season title.  Good thing too, because they're easily the most talented team.  Shabazz Muhammad is legitimately good enough to pull a Carmelo and take UCLA to the Final Four.  The real problem is that Larry Drew is erratic enough to lead them to a first round loss. 
SLEEPER:  Washington.  Tough to find a sleeper in a league this tightly bunched, but I'll go with Washington.  Lorenzo Romar seems to get the Huskies to play well in March, and you can't go wrong rooting for circus ball.
W's PICK:  Cal.  They're annoying because they have Justin Cobbs, but they're also an NCAA Tournament team and one of few from the Pac-12 who I think might be able to make the Sweet 16 because of him.  Cobbs and Allen Crabbe give the Bears two big-time scorers and assist guys and guards are gold when it comes to March basketball.  They're ramping up as well, having won seven of their last eight heading to the tournament including wins over all four of the other NCAA bound Pac teams.

SOUTHEASTERN CONFERENCE
And as we speak about moving towards respectability we must also look at the other side of Two-Face and look at moving away from respectability and that's what's happened to the SEC.  Outside of Florida these teams are awful.  Missouri is the only other team who is solidly in the tournament last year and they've been horrendous and lost to a 15 seed last year and will probably be an early out again.  Kentucky is down this year despite being talented because they aren't talented enough to overcome Calipari's inability to coach during a game and other than a rare decent year from Ole Miss every other program is in a major downward arc, with Mississippi State quite possibly the worst major conference team in history.  I'm not kidding.  They lost to Vanderbilt by 41.  At home.  Dontae Jones is rolling over in his grave.
FAVORITE:  Florida.   The Gators might be the heaviest favorite in any conference and that includes the smaller ones (maybe Davidson).  Currently the #1 team on kenpom with a top 5 in both offensive and defensive efficiency, and enough depth and balance to survive a rough night from any of their players.  That being said, it's a bit concerning that Florida is 0-5 in games with a final margin in the single digits this year, so if "not knowing how to win the close ones" is a real thing they could be in trouble.  Then again, they have 24 wins this year and every single one was by at least 11 points so maybe it doesn't really matter.
SLEEPER: Arkansas.  The Razorbacks should have been better than 10-8 in a down SEC, and they showed how good they can be when they basically ran Florida out of the gym in Fayetteville.   They struggled this year with "can't win away from home"-itis, but at home they beat not only Florida but also Kentucky, Missouri, Tennessee, and Oklahoma - basically as the home team they were probably the second best team in the SEC.  Unfortunately for them, the SEC Tournament isn't played in Arkansas so they're probably in trouble.
W's PICK:  Ole Miss.  The Rebels were looking good earlier this year at 17-2 and 6-0 in SEC play, but have limped down the stretch with a 5-6 finish that included ugly losses to South Carolina and Mississippi State that, along with a horrid non-conference schedule lacking any big wins, have them in rough shape to make the tournament.  They benefit because Florida will gain very little with a win out and Billy Donovan knows it, where the Rebels need this more an anyone other than Tennessee.

SOUTHWESTERN ATHLETIC CONFERENCE
College basketball is crazy year after year, but if there's one thing you can always count on it's the SWAC being terrible.  In the last 10 years they've ranked as the worst conference eight times (kenpom) and second to last the other two.  Looking at their schools I can't remember a single one of them being remotely relevant in the NCAA Tournament - ever.  This year Grambling went 0-27 and ranked dead last in both offensive and defensive efficiency, which I'm pretty sure means they're the worst team of all-time.  Using kenpom's metrics, he would predict that Penn State would beat Grambling 82-48, the Gophers would win 92-44, and Florida (#1 team) would win 96-39.  Hell, the second worst team in the country (New Orleans) would have a projected victory of 72-57.  This is a stunningly bad team.  It's almost admirable.
FAVORITE: Southern.  They finished in second place behind Texas Southern, but Texas Southern is ineligible for the postseason because of NCAA violations.  Additionally the team who tied with Southern for second, Arkansas-Pine Bluff, is ineligible for the post-season due to low APR scores as is Mississippi Valley State.  So basically these schools all suck at basketball and at academics and cheating.  Are we sure these are even colleges?
SLEEPER:  Jackson State.  Ok I lied when I said Florida or Davidson might be the heaviest favorite because it's clearly Southern.  With the only other two teams on their level banned from tournament play there really is no dark horse because Southern should walk.  They're ranked 163rd at kenpom and the next best eligible team is #312.  I picked Jackson as my sleeper simply because they're the only other team who finished at .500 or better who will be playing in this thing.
W's PICK:  Southern.  It doesn't matter because they're going to get blown out by whomever they play (if they get through the First Four) but they should at least have fun destroying teams in getting there.

SOUTHLAND CONFERENCE
Similar to the SWAC the Southland is pretty terrible and is every year, but the difference is the Southland occasionally develops a respectable team (and will more often since Oral Roberts moved there this year for financial/geographic reasons).  This is one of those years with Stephen F. Austin actually looking like a pretty decent squad (they beat Oklahoma and Long Beach).  They will try to continue the Southland's first round tradition of kind of scaring teams but then fading away in the second half, although I still thank baby santa jesus for this moment, which I believe to be the most linked video on this blog:


FAVORITE:  Stephen F. Austin. The Lumberjacks are actually an outstanding defensive team - as in the 6th best team in the country in defensive efficiency.   And they're really well rounded on that side of the ball as well - the defend the two and the three well, don't allow offensive rebounds or commit many fouls and they cause a bunch of turnovers.  Unfortunately their offense is brutal.
SLEEPER:   Northwestern State.  Not only are the Demons awesome because of what they did to Iowa, but they're also awesome because they not only score the most points of any team per game in the NCAA but they also play the fastest pace of any team in the NCAA.  You know how fun it would be to watch them play somebody like North Carolina?  God that would be fun. 
W's PICK:   Northwestern State.  SFA would actually have a much better chance of scoring an upset with their super slow pace and tough defense, but seriously if I wanted to watch that kind of basketball I'd just move to Wisconsin.  The Demons would at least be fun - mostly for the other team and their fans - but what can I say I'm a sucker for circus ball and NW State fits the bill.  I'm kind of excited for them already, so they better not let me down or there'll be hell to pay.  Hell.

CONFERENCE USA
It's Memphis and everybody else.  Again.  Memphis, who you might remember the Gophers actually beat, rolled through conference play on the way to a 16-0 record and have locked up their at-large bid.  What this means, since this is Memphis and Josh Pastner, is that they'll likely lose focus and interest in the conference tournament and somebody else will have a chance to win it.  The only question is if anybody is actually good enough to do so, even with the Tigers chasing butterflies or whatever.
FAVORITE:  Memphis.  When it comes to talent the Tigers are on a completely different level than everybody else.  The only other team who can play there way to a possible at-large is Southern Miss and they finished four games behind Memphis in the standings and the lost to the Tigers by 13 and 16 in their two meetings.  Maybe Memphis is the biggest favorite of anybody in any conference tournament.  This stuff is hard.
SLEEPER:  Houston.  If I had to pick a non-Memphis or Southern Miss team to win this I'd go with UTEP, but Houston is a better "sleeper" since they're a middle of the pack squad who comes in a bit hot after winning their final three regular season games.  Normally you'd say that's not a big deal since it's only three games, but for a team this young (top four scorers are all freshmen or sophomores) with some real talent (at least one Rivals Top 150 recruit has signed with the Cougars each of the last two years) this could be a sign of them coming together and figuring it out.  Probably not, but maybe.
W's PICK:  Memphis.  Honestly there are only a couple teams Memphis will even to try to beat in this tournament, and none of them are very good and this thing is so wide open they might all lose early.  Good thing Memphis is finally leaving that shitty conference because it's just getting worse and worse.  Probably time to shut 'er down.

DWG's NCAA Basketball Preview: Teams #52-47

I know plenty of people are busy tonight with the debate and the Tigers/Yankees game, but I can only watch the debates 30 seconds at a time without falling asleep or dying of self-inflicted gangrene and it seems silly to write about the Tigers/Yankees game because I don't really feel like writing "Verlander gets another stupid Yankee out easily" twenty-seven times.  Thus insteadly here are some NCAA Basketball previews.  I hope you enjoy them.

I'm just kidding.  I really don't give a crap.  I know you're reading this at work and have nothing better to do with your time anyway.

52.  Illinois State Redbirds.  Creighton, Wichita State, and Northern Iowa seem to get most of the Missouri Valley headlines and hype, but this could end up being Illinois State's big year.  Last year's team took Creighton down to the wire in the MVC Championship before losing in overtime, then beat Ole Miss in the NIT before falling to eventual champ Stanford (also in OT).  That same team returns pretty much intact (including stud Jackie Carmichael who, according to anything you read on ISU on the internet "wowed" people at the LeBron Skills Academy).  They do lose their starting point guard from last season who transferred to SMU to tag along with the Redbirds' coach last year, and nobody's sure if they have a player who can fill that role capably, but who cares?  Their nickname is the Redbirds for christ's sake, and if the baseball playoffs have taught us anything (other than the Yankees suck) it's that Redbirds never die.

51.  Marshall Thundering Herd.  Marshall hasn't been to the NCAA Tournament since 1987 and has never won a game, but they've been awfully close lately which seems interesting or something I guess.  Last year they were in the hunt until a killer loss to a terrible ECU team knocked them out of the at-large running and then they were crushed in the C-USA Tournament Championship game by Memphis.  Two years prior they came out of the blocks at 15-2 before sucking the rest of the year.  Will this be the year they finally break through?  No.

50.  Belmont Bruins.  Belmont takes a big step up in the world this year, shifting from the Atlantic Sun to the Ohio Valley which means capturing an at-large bid goes from impossible to simply unlikely.  And once again, this will be the same kind of hyper-efficient team that takes care of the basketball and shoots well, but likely lacks the athleticism to truly compete with the big-time programs and really good teams.  And once again they'll probably end up in the NCAA Tournament matched up against somebody better, and everyone (myself included) will talk themselves into how Belmont could be a sweet 16 sleeper and end up picking them to beat a #4 seed in round one only to watch in horror as they get blown out by 20 and a have to put a big red X on my bracket before the first games of day 1 are out.  Looking forward to it already.

49.  Arkansas Razorbacks.  What's the best way to rebound from John Pelphrey trying to run the program straight into the ground?  Hire the sweet Mike Anderson, Nolan Richardson's protege, and let the Hogs run wild.  It didn't quite kick in for year 1, but based on his track record at UAB and Missouri I'd imagine we'll see Arkansas back in the tournament in a year or two.  Guard play is the key to running Anderson's system and Arkansas is plenty loaded here.  B.J. Young, who flirted a bit with the Gophers (while, they more threw themselves at him and he didn't say no right away - like your sister at a kegger) had a monster freshman year and probably could have gone pro but stayed on for another year, and he's got plenty of other perimeter help.  You know fun Missouri was to watch the last several years?  Yeah, that's coming to Fayetteville.  I wish I could bet on things like, Arkansas will be ranked in the top 10 at some point in the next 3 years.  I'd totally win a bunch of money.  Just like how Snacks will owe me fifty bucks when the Royals win the AL Central sometime by 2014 (a bet we made 2 years ago).  Yeah.  It's coming.  I've already spent that money investing in pumpkins.  They've been going up the month of October.  I figure if I hold those babies until January and then cash out.  BAM!  BOATLOADS!

48.  Colorado State Rams.  I don't think anyone would dispute that losing Tim Miles (to Nebraska) is a blow considering how he builds programs, but if you're going to lose a guy like that (and it was inevitable) you could do a whole lot worse than hiring Larry Eustachy.  I know it's easy to think about the scandal where he was busted partying with young college chicks but let's be honest who wouldn't want to do that, but don't forget the guy is a damn good coach.  This is the same guy who just took a garbage program in Southern Miss to the NCAA Tournament last year and had lots of success at Iowa State, and he's also the guy who started Utah State's run of brilliance back in 1998 (hadn't been to the tournament in 10 years).  And now he inherits a team that made the tournament last season and he gets most of the team back, plus Colton Iverson.  Eustachy and Iverson!  Count me in.  That's like a modern day Balki and Cousin Larry.

47.  Cal Bears.  These guys could end up with one of the best backcourts in the Pac-12 and, sad and horrifying as it is, part of the reason is Justin Cobbs.  Freed from the restraints of Tubby's molasses style offense Cobbs ended up averaging 12.6 points (16th in the conference) and 5.0 assists (2nd) per game last season, and he's probably not even the teams best guard - that would be Allen Crabbe.  They have to figure out how to replace two big losses including their lead point guard and their best post player, but having two good guards and playing in the shitbox Pac-12 pretty much assures Cal will at least be in the running for an NCAA bid.  Mother-effing Cobbs.


Previous:
Teams #68-60
Teams #59-53

NCAA Basketball Preview - SEC

While the Pac-10 has been down and gotten most of the press/talk about being the worst major conference in college ball lately, the SEC hasn't been far behind.  It's less notable because of Kentucky and Florida's success, but some of the traditional power teams have been way down, specifically LSU and Arkansas.


Things seem to be looking up however, with Vanderbilt looking very strong (they'd probably be ranked first in any other conference outside this and the ACC), Alabama looking strong, and LSU looking to be improved this year.  Also I'm really just writing this to push the pictures down so they aren't "above the fold" because somebody once requested I do that because otherwise they pull up my blog at work and BAM hot chick right in front.  So that's why I'm still typing. 

1.  KENTUCKY WILDCATS.  If you're sick of John Calipari and Kentucky, this isn't the year for you because this might be slimey Cal's best team ever.  He got a break with Terrence Jones and Doron Lamb opting to stay in school and brings in the #1 recruiting class in the country and maybe the best of his career with PF Anthony Davis (#2), SF Mike Gilchrist (#3), PG Marquis Teague (#5), and PF Kyle Wiltjer (#22).  Just those six together with filler would be a top 10 team, but Kentucky still has .  Is this the year Calipari finally puts it all together and walks away with the National Title?  Good god, I hope not.  That slime ball and Kentucky hoops in general can go to hell.

2.  VANDERBILT COMMODORES.  Vandy has a big chance to be really, really good this year.  Unfortunately they were really, really good last year too and still got bounced by Richmond in the first round - not unlike the previous year when they got bounced in the first by Murray State.  If they're going to make a run anytime soon this is the year to do it - they've got all five starters back and nine of their top ten scorers.  John Jenkins might be the best shooter in the league and has surpassed Jeffrey Taylor as the best player on this team - and Taylor still has a shot to be All-SEC First Team.  Their point guard led the SEC in assists, which makes sense giving those two guys he's dishing to, and they have a couple very solid post men including the sweet named Festus Ezeli.  They also bring in a good class highlighted by Dai-Jon Parker, one of the best recruits in Vandy history.  Seriously, they're loaded.  If they can't make a run with this group they might as well disband the hoops program and become the full-time nerd school they're destined to become.

3.  FLORIDA GATORS.  The good news is that the Gators are absolutely loaded at guard, and you need guards to win.  They return Erving Walker and Kenny Boynton, who were their top 2 scorers last year and add Rutgers transfer Mike Rosario, who led his team in scoring 2 years ago and was a big time recruit as a freshman, and freshman Bradley Beal, the #4 recruit in the nation.  So yeah, they're set in the back court.  The front court, however, is a big question mark because all three starters are gone.  Patric Young is still here, and he was a highly regarded center a year ago and played well as a back-up last season.  If they can figure out what to do with their big men or make a 3/4 guard offense work they are going to be a very, very dangerous team in March.

4.  ALABAMA CRIMSON TIDE.  Essentially the inverse of Florida, the Tide are loaded in the paint but
 have serious question marks on the perimeter.  JaMychal Green might be the best interior player in the conference, and he returns as the #2 returning scorer among perimeter players and the #2 returning rebounder in the conference (both behind UK's Terrence Jones), and the man who'll be starting right next to him, Tony Mitchell, is #3 and #4.  On the perimeter there's talent, if not experience.  Travis Releford, the team's third leading scorer last year, is back and a couple of newcomers are top 30 recruits in Trevor Lacey and Levi Randolph.  Actually, now that I'm writing this I want to swap Bama and Florida here, but then my first sentence doesn't make any sense and I'd have to redo the whole thing.   

5.  MISSISSIPPI STATE BULLDOGS.  The Bulldogs will go as far as Renardo Sidney and Dee Bost's heads will take them.  Neither was the team's leading scorer last year (that was Ravern Johnson who is gone) but it's hard to argue they aren't the two most talented players.  Of course, Sidney is overweight, disappears and floats through games at times, and got in a well-publicized fight with a teammate last season, not to mention the mess of trouble he went through with the NCAA.  Bost missed the first 14 games last year after not withdrawing from the NBA draft in time and not keeping his academics in order.  All the NCAA trouble should be behind them, but Sidney is the type of guy who could score 30 and grab 15 boards in a game or just as easily score in single-figures and grab just a couple boards.  Not to mention that he gives the impression he's a bit of a ticking time bomb who could do something that would get him suspended again.  Awfully fun to watch though.

6.  LSU TIGERS.  It hasn't really felt right the last two season's with LSU at the bottom of the SEC, but things should be looking up this year.  Their top four scorers are back and they add in their first McDonald's All-American since 2005 in Johnny O'Bryant, a center who Rivals ranks as the 4th best at his position amongst all freshmen (#46 overall).  And what a nice coincidence, center is exactly what LSU needed most.  The perimeter is manned by sophomores Andre Stringer and Ralston Turner who were both top 150 recruits last year and both had successful first seasons, with Storm Warren (team's best rebounder) and Iowa State transfer Justin Hamilton joining O'Bryant on the inside (I didn't know players actually transferred OUT of Ames).  LSU won't be a great team and likely won't challenge for an NCAA Tournament bid, but they'll at least get themselves out of the cellar and moving in the right direction.

7.  ARKANSAS RAZORBACKS.  Despite bringing in what Rivals ranks as the #11 class in the country, John Pelphrey was fired after another subpar season by Arkansas.  Luckily new coach Mike Anderson was able to hold on to the class, and that's doubly good because leading scorer, noted sharpshooter, and horribly named Rotnei Clarke (who is white, fyi) transferred after the switch and third-leading scorer and leading rebounder Delvon Johnson has graduated.  It's basically going to be Marshawn Powell with a whole bunch of unproven guys, both older and the newcomers.  The two new guards (B.J. Young and Ky Madden) can both play either guard spot and were both top 30 type recruits, so they should thrive under Anderson.  Should be fun to watch, either way.

8.  TENNESSEE VOLUNTEERS.  I don't really like living in a world where Tennessee isn't a top tier SEC basketball team, but after Bruce Pearl tried to single-handedly destroy the program that looks like where we sit with five of the team's top six scorers from last year gone and one of their top recruits opted out and signed on with Louisville instead.  The lone big-time returner is guard Cameron Tatum who has been a bit of a disappointment thus far in his career, averaging around 7.5 points per game.  He's always been a 3rd or 4th option, but will have a chance to be the man this year.  There's plenty of other talent (why wouldn't there be since Pearl was a cheater) if not experience, with freshmen PG Chris Jones and SG Josh Richardson, sophomore SGs Jordan McRae and Trae Golden, junior center Kenny Hall and SF Jeronne Maymon, and senior PF Renaldo Woolridge all former top 100 recruits.  So really, these guys could finish anywhere from 4th to 12th and it wouldn't be a surprise.  With a good new coach in Cuonzo Martin I'm guessing they'll be ok.

 9.  OLE MISS REBELS.  The last four years had to be a bit disappointing for the Rebels (assuming anybody there cares about something besides football) because they had Chris Warren (not the RB) one of the best players in Ole Miss history and all they could muster was a couple of NIT Final Fours without a single NCAA berth.  Now Warren is gone along with his back court mate Zach Graham and they're combined 34 points, 7 rebounds, and 6 assists per game with them.  As you can imagine, this leaves a fairly gaping hole.  The good news is that Jelan Kendrick, formerly of the Memphis Tigers and was ranked the #15 best recruit in the country in 2010, is on board and becomes eligible after the first semester - he will immediately become Ole Miss's best player.  Assuming he manages to stay on the team (read this for a quick synopsis of this dude's mental issues) he and fellow NBA prospect Terrance Henry should at least keep Ole Miss competitive.

10.  AUBURN TIGERS.  Auburn was completely awful last season with losses to teams like Presbyterian, Asheville, Samford, Jacksonville, and Campbell and their leading scorer and rebounder from last season transferred to Missouri, but there isn't a complete lack of hope for the Tigers.  Kenny Gabriel is a double-figure scorer who is back, point guard Frankie Sullivan is returning from a season ending knee injury last year, while a couple of transfers (Varez Ward from Texas and Noel Johnson from Clemson) will likely immediately jump into the starting lineup.  They also add 6-10 center Willy Kouassi, the #66 freshman in the country and SG Cedrick McAfee (#145), so although they won't be in contention for an NCAA bid any time soon, at least there's a little bit of reason for hope.

11.  GEORGIA BULLDOGS.  No team was hit harder by early NBA entries than Georgia with Trey Thompkins and Travis Leslie taking off.  All those two were responsible for last season was 45% of the team's points, 44% of their rebounds, 30% of their assists, 38% of their steals, and 46% of their blocks, and took 42% of the team's shots.  So yes, there are some big shoes to fill here.  They do have 3rd leading scorer and starting PG Gerald Robinson back, so that will help, and stud recruit Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (#12 overall) will probably immediately start next to him, but besides Thompkins in the paint they also have to try to replace their top 2 other post men, and there's just nobody here to do it.

12.  SOUTH CAROLINA GAME COCKS.  So this team won 5 SEC games last year.  Their best player, Bruce Ellington, decided to play football and, although he is supposed to rejoin the team it won't happen until after football season and South Carolina is probably heading to a bowl.  Their second best player graduated, and their third best player decided to transfer to LaSalle who is terrible.  I'd say things are not looking super great.  You know how it seems like the Cocks either beat or put a scare into somebody good at home every year?  Yeah, don't expect that this year.  As the Gin Blossoms once said, "Don't expect too much from me and you might not be let down."


Other previews:
Big 12
ACC
Atlantic 10
Pac 12

SEC College Basketball 2010 Preview

There are good looking women in the SEC.

SEC EAST

1.  Florida Gators.  I'm not a huge fan of their guards, because I think both Erving Walker and Kenny Boynton can get a little too out of control and both have a tendency to shoot shots that they shan't be shooting, but there is not denying their talent and the Gators have a stellar front court.  Chandler Parsons is a Mike Miller clone sans the bad hair and with a slightly worse jump shot (and he single-handedly won me my fantasy college hoops league last year) and Alex Tyus and Vernon Macklin are very good as long as you don't count free throws.  In a down year for the SEC, the Gators are clearly the class of either division.

2.  Kentucky Wildcats.  In what I'm going to assume is about to become a tradition until Calipari is arrested for money laundering, Kentucky lost an assload of good players to the NBA but is reloading with an assload of talent.  It's almost a perfect job of recruiting, actually, because these guys are not only talented but cover all five positions:  You have PG Brandon Knight (Rivals #6 overall), SG Doron Lamb (#21), SF Stacey Poole (#33), PF Terrence Jones (#13), and C Enes Kanter (#3 overall).  Of course, the biggest question is if Kanter will end up eligible, because they aren't particularly strong on the interior without him, but this year will be plenty athletic and is near-perfectly built for the dribble-drive offense Calipari loves.  I'd consider this #2 prediction their downside.  Well, the actual downside was it turns out Cal has been cheating (NO WAY) and they kick everybody off the team or something.  That would probably be worse.

3.  Georgia Bulldogs.  Georgia may very well be on their way back to relevance, believe it or not.  Travis Leslie is an absolute stud, and what Rodney Williams should aspire to become, and they have the league's leading returning scorer and rebounder in power forward Trey Thompkins.  These guys should be two of the best players in the conference, but what makes this team really interesting are a couple of newcomers:  freshman forward Marcus Thornton and point guard transfer from Tennessee State Gerald Robinson.  Thornton could be a great one, with both size and athleticism, and Robinson is the kind of scoring point guard (averaged 15 and 18 points per game in his two years at TSU) who can end up making or breaking a team.  I consider these guys a solid sleeper this year.

4.  Tennessee Volunteers.  I don't exactly know how Bruce Pearl being a huge cheater is going to affect this team, but they're a bit of an enigma already so this doesn't help with the rubix cube here.  I've seen them ranked anywhere from 2nd to 4th in various previews, and with three major contributors and starters gone (four if you want to count Tyler Smith) the second place predictions seems awfully optimistic to me.  I guess it really depends on how good you think freshman point guard Tobias Harris can be (Rivals #7), and how much of an improvement Cameron Tatum and/or Scottie Hopson can make.  I think those three will be pretty studly, but they're all perimeter guys and the Vols are going to be weak on the interior.  Plus I wouldn't surprised if Pearl is dismissed/suspended/whatever and this whole thing collapses.

5.  Vanderbilt Commodores.  If Northwestern is the nerds of midwest, and Stanford is the nerds of the west coast, then Vanderbilt is the nerds of the southeast.  And for nerds, they've had a pretty good run of success lately, making the NCAA Tournament three of the last four years with a sweet16 appearance thrown in.  This looking like it's going to be a down year, however, with two double-digit scorers (center A.J. Ogilvy and point guard Jermaine Beal) lost to graduation, but they've built the kind of program at this point where they'll be back soon enough.  Sophomore Jeffery Taylor is one of the most athletically gifted players in the conference and should blossom with an increased role on offense, and classmate John Jenkins is a three-point marksman who hit nearly 50% of his threes last year on his way to averaging double-digit points per game.  And they're probably all really smart, too.  NERDS!!!

6.  South Carolina Gamecocks.  Remember Devan Downey? He and his 22 points per game have graduated.  Along with Dominique Archie (who only played five games last year due to injury) and his 14.4 ppg, Mike Holmes (who only played in seven before being kicked off the team) and his 9.4, and Brandin Raley-Ross and his 10.6.  So yes, they're losing a lot.  They still have a decent enough inside/outside combo in Ramon Galloway and Sam Muldrow, but let's just say if they were an NBA Jam combo they'd never get picked outside of South Carolina.  Coach Darrin Horn loves to play an uptempo style, but with just Galloway and Lakeem Jackson back with significant back court experience, he'll be relying on newcomers and although it's a good class, that's not generally a sign of success.  This isn't Kentucky.


SEC WEST

1.  Mississippi State Bulldogs.  It sucks that Jarvis Varnado graduated, because that guy was as fun to watch as anybody so pardon me if I'm weeping like a fat girl at a prom with no cake while I type this, but the Bulldogs have enough coming back to win their division and make the tournament, mostly because the defied the odds and went 2-0 against the NCAA fascists this offseason.  Dee Bost, last year's #3 scorer at 13.2 ppg, declared for the NBA draft, then pulled his name out after the deadline, and instead of following it's own rules they are letting him back to play another year after sitting out the first handful of games.  He'll be joined on the suspended bench to start the year by PF Renardo Sidney, last year's #16 ranked freshman by Rivals who sat out of all of last season during an NCAA investigation into something or other, but he'll be playing after a nine game timeout.  Add these two to Ravern Johnson, their leading returning scorer, and Miss State should be dancing this year.  With a big thanks to the NCAA for actually being reasonable, not exactly their strong suit.  It's probably in recognition of how much it sucks to lose Varnado.

2.  Mississippi Rebels.  Chris Warren is back, again (he's apparently under the Jess Settles plan), but he loses his two back court buddies (Eniel Polynice and Terrico White) who combined to give the Rebels one of the best three-man back courts in the country amongst teams who didn't make the NCAA tournament last year.  He won't be alone back there, however, because Ole Miss will welcome one of the best names in the country to the program in point guard Dundrecous Nelson (#89 Rivals), as well as Nick Williams, a transfer from Indiana who averaged nearly double-digit points in his year with the Hoosiers.  If the Rebs can get some help in the front court they could finally bust through the bubble and make their first NCAA Tournament since 2002.  Gotta be sick of being predicted to be a tournament team only to end up in the NIT, no?

3.  Arkansas Razorbacks.  Mike Pelphrey continues to grab good recruiting classes, but at the same time there seems to be sort of an undercurrent that things might not be all rosy, or maybe that's just the Courtney  Fortson affect.  And speaking of Fortson, I think I'm pretty glad he never ended up a Gopher, because it seems he may have been just as good at killing his team as he was at helping it.  In any case, Pelphrey has this program humming like a good ole fashioned jug band drinkin' moonshine while prepping for a coon hunt.  And if that sounded racist against southerners, it probably was.  I've been to Arkansas.

4.  Alabama Crimson Tide.  Mikhail Torrance was an absolute stud for the Tide last year.  Unfortunately, he's gone.  Fortunately, however, they still JaMychal Green, who is a beast on the block, and swingman Tony Mitchell, who had a very good freshman year and should only get better.  They also have a hell of a freshman point guard coming in with Trevor Releford, who may be the most important cog.  According to something I read, Tide coach Anthony Grant wants to run an uptempo offense, but didn't have the point guard to do it and went slow down instead (their tempo ranked #247 last year), and the hope is that Releford is the guy who can be turned loose.  It might work, and there's talent here, I just don't think it's enough, even in the SEC West.

5.  LSU Tigers.  Every year I keep waiting for LSU to get back to relevance, but every year it seems they're still stuck down at the bottom of the division - and this year won't change that.  Storm Warren is a solid guard, but the other stand-out returner, forward Bo Spencer, peaced out from the program after being declared academically ineligible (at LSU?  LOL).  With that they are very young and I'm not even sure they know what all they have since Warren is the only returning player who averaged more than 4.6 points per game last year.  There is some talent, with SG Aaron Dotson a Rivals top 150 player last year and a good class this year with three more Rivals top 150 types, so they might be on their way back to relevance, just not yet.

6.  Auburn Tigers.  Things were already going to be tough with four starters graduating (including your top three scorers), but the news got worse when Frankie Sullivan, the lone returning starter, ended up needed ACL surgery that will likely keep him out all year and the Tigers' two top recruits, Luke Cothron (Rivals #45) and Shawn Kemp, Jr. (#105) were both ruled academically eligible for the year (Cothron has since fled to UMass).  This leaves Auburn with Earnest Ross as their top returnee, a sophomore guard who averaged 2.8 points and 3 rebounds in 13 minutes per game last year.  In other words it's going to be a long year.  At least it will be warm.

Week in Review - 11/30/2009

Guess what I can't bring myself to talk about right now?  Yep, Gopher basketball.  I know this is supposedly a gopher basketball blog (and Twins), but I just can't do it.  I am livid.  Liv.  Id.  But it's really my own fault.  Here I somehow started to believe this was a "special" team, meaning a sweet 16ish type.  Now I'm coming to realize that it's not even close.  It's just like last year - and why wouldn't it be?  It's pretty much the same team.  All the same warts.  So we can expect to be in a fight for a bid, probably make it, and be happy with that as the upside.  Great.  Better than the Monson years no doubt, but I feel like a kid who just found out Santa isn't real.  I can't even come close to rationally discussing this right now.  And, as they say, if you can't say anything nice don't say anything at all.  So I won't.


WHO WAS AWESOME
1.  Cincinnati.  If not for some Tim Donaghy-level reffing (huge foul disparity, blown call on game-winning layup attempt) and an unfortunately timed foul shooting meltdown (2-7 in overtime, with two misses by Deonta Vaughn (career 80+ shooter), the Bearcats would be returning from Maui as the champions of the Maui Classic - as it is, they return instead as a legitimate contender for the Big East title after beating two top-25 teams (Vanderbilt and Maryland) and losing in overtime to Gonzaga.  I told you people this team was going to be good, and there are some very good things.  Freshman Lance Stephenson has Carmelo Anthony-type potential.  They have other potential stars both outside (Vaughn) and inside (Yancy Gates), are very deep, and are an excellent defensive team.  I still think they have final four potential.  Sure, there are some things they need to work on - they settle for too many jumpers and struggle against athletic big men, and I'm not sure about Cashmere Wright at the point just yet, but they could make some noise in March.  And don't forget, Ibrahima Thomas won't be eligible until December. 

2.  Purdue.  Even with all the cross-pollenating tournaments and all that jazz, it's still rare to get a matchup of two teams ranked in the top-11, so when that happens this early, the winner should feel pretty good about themselves.  In this case and using this tortured multi-part sentence, I'm talking about Purdue and their very good 73-72 win over Tennessee in the Virgin Islands on Monday.  It was the three usual suspects bringing the Boilers to victory - Robbie Hummel (20 pts, 7 rebs), the "College KG" JaJuan Johnson (11 pts), and E'Twaun Moore (22 pts) - and those three will be the key to how far the Boilers go this year, but a lot of credit needs to go to Keaton Grant, who's being forced to fill in at the point with the injury to Lewis Jackson and doing a nice job.  I'm not sure when Lew-Jack is supposed to be back, but Purdue hasn't missed a beat without him.

3.  John Shurna.  Wasn't Northwestern supposed to be dead in the water after Coble got hurt?  It certainly isn't looking that way, especially after they won the Chicago Invitational by beating Notre Dame and Iowa State, two teams with NCAA Tournament aspirations, and completely on the back of Shurna, the 6-8 sophomore who won the tournament MVP award - quite an accompishment consider Luke Harangody and Craig Brackins were both involved.  And where did this come from?  Shurna was a lightly recruited, 3-star player out of high school who ended up at Northwestern because they were his best offer and has suddenly turned into a Coble clone.  He's the same guy, although I think Coble would beat him at horse, but he's got the same inside/outside, unathletically effective game, and he defintiely came to play this weekend.  He put up 25-8-4 against Notre Dame (Harangody:  21-9-0) and 23-7-4 against Iowa State (Brackins:  18-9-3) to lead the Wildcats to what must surely be their first place trophy in anything basketball related.  I hate to say it, but with Shurna and Thompson both back next year with more experience, the Coble injury might have been the best thing that could have happened to them.  If they don't get their first ever NCAA bid this year, next year should be it.   

4.  Richmond.  After losing earlier this season to William & Mary, a Spiders team that was supposed to challenge for the A-10 crown was looking like more of a CBI caliber team.  They made up for that loss, however, by winning the South Padre Invitational with wins over Mississippi State and Missouri, wins that aren't what you would called marquee, but very nice quality wins that should end up looking good on selection sunday.  They also got a boost with William & Mary's win at Wake Forest this weekend, which shows W&M is a legit team and softens the sting of that early season loss.

5.  Florida.  The Gators won the Legends Classic in Atlantic City by beating Rutgers and Michigan State (yet another Big Team who bombed this week), and started the week by crushing Florida State.  I wasn't sure exactly what to make of the Gators coming in to this year, but the newcomers have been great (Kenny Boynton leads the team in scoring and Vernon Macklin is in double-figures as well), and Erving Walker is settling in as a pretty good point guard.  Looks like they'll be back in tournament, and not the NIT this time.


WHO SUCKED

1. Oklahoma.  Losing Blake Griffin will obviously make things a little rough, but the Sooners had Willie Warren and Tony Crocker back as well as a really nice recruiting class with two projected starters in it, so the thought was that they would be ok.  Well, the Great Alaska Shootout showed that perhaps that isn't exactly the case since the Sooners came home with a prestigious 7th place trophy after going 1-2 in the frozen north.  They lost to both San Diego and Houston prior before drawing the now 0-8 Nicholls State Colonels, who actually led 47-41 at one point in the second half before falling 81-60.  This was basically an unequivacable disaster for Oklahoma, who were ranked 25th before this tournament.  Neither Houston nor San Diego is awful, and both will probably be on the fringes of the bubble come tournament time, but you just can't do this if you're a major conference school who has hopes of competing for your league's championship.  They shot 33% and were out rebounded 39-30 against San Diego in game 1 and then turned it over 18 times while allowing Houston to shoot 46% from three in game two.  You can probably just go ahead and cross Oklahoma off your NCAA bid list right now.  I'll bet anything it's because of Tony Crocker and his retarded long sleeve t-shirts.  Either that or they miss the power of Austin Johnson's mohawk (and his Miles Tarver-look-like-ness).

2.  Greivis Vasquez.  Maryland had a rough go this week at the Maui Invitational, losing two out of three games - to Cincinnati by 12 and Wisconsin by 9, and picking up their only win by beating tournament host and noted high school program Chaminade in the opening round.  The main issue here, is that their main man and 8th year senior Greivis Vasquez suddenly can't shoot.  In the three games, he shot 2-7, 5-17, and 6-13, which is a combined 35% and actually a nice improvement on his season-total of 30% field goal shooting.  Now, his other numbers are good, he's averaging a career high 6.0 assists and 2.2 steals per game, his 2.1-1 assist-to-turnover ratio is his best as well and his rebounding is right in line with his career numbers, but his scoring is at just 9.8 per game, exactly half of last year's average, and his shooting, as mentioned, as Nolen-Level atrocious.  The Terps can't win without Vasquez scoring, as shown last week, so he needs to get it together if they're going to make the tournament.

3.  Illinois.  You know who hates Las Vegas?  And no, I'm not talking about Dr. Acula, I'm talking about the not so Fighting Illini, who had an awful Las Vegas Invitational.  It should have been a nice resume building weekend.  Beat a crappy Utah team on Friday night and then take on Oklahoma State on Saturday - win or lose, it's overall going to help your resume.  Well, things didn't quite work out, because Illinois managed to screw it up and lose to Utah on Friday, despite having a 32-16 lead at halftime, the same Utah team who lost to Seattle earlier in the week.  Then, instead of at least salvaging the weekend by winning the consolation bracket with a win over Bradley, the go out and get beat by four instead.  Obviously this doesn't exactly look good for the Big Ten, but hey, maybe the Illini are actually terrible and it will be a couple of easy wins for the Gophers.  Special props out to "star" freshmen Brandon Paul and D.J. Richardson, who combined to shoot 6-27 in the tournament.  If I'm an Illini fan, I'm very worried right now.

4.  UCLA.  Well you knew this was coming, but there's just now way to avoid pointing out the colossal flop the Bruins pulled this weekend.  Even in a down year, would you ever expect the Bruins to finish 8th in an 8-team tournament?  The loss to Portland is obviously not that bad, and the loss to Butler isn't a killer, but to then drop a game to Long Beach?  Especially after having already gone 0-2 they knew they needed this one to salvage, well, anything, out of this, and instead got destroyed by a Dan Monson coached team.  Ouch.  And what the F ever happened to Drew Gordon?  He was supposed to be the stud daddy, but had an awful rough weekend to go along with a subpar career so far.  He failed to break 10 points or 4 rebounds in any game of the tournament, bottoming out in him just playing 12 minutes against Long Beach.  I don't exactly know what's going on down in Westwood, but this is the worst I can remember the program being since I started watching basketball.    

5.  Arkansas.  Most of the teams in either category are pretty obvious this week due to the tournaments and such.  Insert winners into "awesome" and insert 8th place teams into "suck."  Pretty straight forward.  Arkansas (an NCAA hopeful, mind you), on the other hand, had three cupcake games this week - all home games - versus Morgan State, East Tennessee State, and South Alabama.  Well guess what?  They lost all three.  ALL.  THREE.  This is, perhaps, the worst week an NCAA hopeful has ever had this early in the season against this level of opposition.  Now, I know the Razorbacks are a bit hamstrung right now with Courntey Fortson still out due to some sort of disciplinary issue, but these are not losses you see from an NCAA team no matter who they're missing.  In any other week, this would be by far the thing that sucked the most.  But not this week.


The thing that sucked most this week was Dayton coming back and beating Towson after being down by 18 with just nine minutes to play.  That would have given them an 0-2 week capped off with a loss to one of the worst programs in history, and given me an excuse use the Towson picture I have.  Craptacular.

Actually, when am I ever going to have a chance another chance to use a Towson picture?

NCAA Basketball Preview: The SEC

I have no idea what happened to the SEC.  This used to be a really, really good conference, but seems to have slipped since the Florida back-to-back championship teams and is now pretty much the worst of the major conferences.  Things are looking to turn, however, as there are a couple of big-time contenders here now and the conference as a whole looks like it is getting a whole lot better.  I also hate that they split out their conference into East and West divisions.  Unnecessary and annoying.  In protest, I will be listing them as a whole, not breaking it down by division.  Take that Robert E. Lee!

1.  Kentucky.  Well I for one can't wait to see this John Wall character.  You can't read anything about Kentucky or even the NCAA basketball season as a whole without him being mentioned.  The comparison I see a lot is "a better Derrick Rose" which like, whoa.  He's on everybody's award winner predictions lists, anywhere from the SEC Player of the Year all the way up to National Player of the Year, and he hasn't played a minute yet.  There's plenty of talent around him, that's for sure.  Patrick Patterson is insanely good, and for some strange reason is still in college rather than the NBA, and that recruiting class Calipari paid to come to Lexington is out of this world.  Other than Wall, who is #1 on the Rivals 150, they also got PF DeMarcus Cousins (#2), C Daniel Orton (#22), PG Eric Bledsoe (#23) who I desperately wanted to become a Gopher, and G Jon Hood (#55).  Holy god.  The talent is there, anything less than a final four appearance is going to be a disappointment (this assumes the eligibility issues with Wall are resolved and he ends up playing.) 


2.  Mississippi State.  I love Jarvis Varnado.  Love him.  I had a chance to watch him in a game a couple of years ago as a sophomore, and fell in love with his defense - he averaged 4.7 blocks per game last year to lead the nation and, barring injury, will almost certainly become the all-time leader in blocked shots in NCAA history.  But it gets better.  After being a defensive force his first two seasons, before last year he worked on his offensive game, developed some low-post moves, and increased his scoring from 8ppg as a sophomore to 13 per game last year.  Even more, I read this offseason he's worked tirelessly on adding a mid-range jumper.  Based on his ability to improve year over year, I can't wait to see his new offensive game, and he could be gunning for All-American status.  All this from a guy who already has a triple-double in his career and several other near misses.  The Bulldogs are hurt a bit by recruit Renardo Sidney (Rivals #16) being ruled ineligible, but there is a lot here surrounding Varnado.  The Final Four might be aiming a bit too high, but you can expect MSU to be a major contender. 

3.  Tennessee.  Despite losing a bunch of players last year, the Vols were a bit of a disappointment last year, finishing up an uneven season with five losses by 3 points or less, including their loss to Oklahoma State in the NCAA Tournament.  The good news is that everybody is back, and they add two key pieces in PF Kenny Hall (Rivals #74) who will help shore up the inside game, and juco PG Melvin Goins (#62 Juco), who can help at point guard - a weakness last year, especially in SEC play.  Another issue that needs to be fixed is the three-point shot, once a huge weapon for Tennessee it proved to be an achilles' heel last year - the Vols shot just 31.5% behind the line, worst in the SEC and 286th in the country.  The hope is that sophomores Cameron Tatum and Scotty Hopson, now with a year of college hoops under their belts, can improve, and that might end up being the difference between an average team and a great team.


4.  Vanderbilt.  I've managed to pretty much completely avoid Vanderbilt for years, except for when Derrick Byars was there, that guy was a freakin' stud. I wonder what he's up to, hold on.  Let's see, bounced around a few different NBA teams without ever sticking, and ended up playing the last couple of seasons in Germany and France before hooking on with the Bakersfield Jam in the D-League last year.  He averaged 18 points per game for them and made the all-star team, was invited to Bulls training camp this year, made the team and is on the opening night roster.  Sweet.  Oh, and all the magazines and previews and everything say Vandy is going to be really good this year.  I do know they have a beast down low whose name I can't remember.

5.  Arkansas.  I've been following Courtney Fortson closely since the Gophers were after him, and I still can't decide if I wish he was here or not - even with the current PG situation.  On the one hand, his stats are amazing - 14.5 points/5.9 assists/5.5 rebounds - incredible for a 5-11 freshman, and he notched a triple-double in just his seventh ever game, and nearly had two more against Oklahoma and LSU, not exactly horrible teams.  On the other hand, his turnovers are wildly high (4.4 per game) including a game where he turned the ball over 10 times in 29 minutes, he's not a very good shooter (31% from three, 60% from the line), and he once went 7-27 from the floor in a game.  All in all, the dude is wildly talented, and assuming he reigns in his game and continues to improve with age, he's going to be a star - so yes, I do wish he was a Gopher.  There is plenty of other talent back, including three other double digit scorers, and a very good recruiting class, so the Razorbacks should be in the NCAA hunt.  Of course, after their huge nonconference wins over top ten teams Oklahoma and Texas last year we thought that too, before they inexplicably went 2-14 in the SEC.  Well, not that inexplicable.  They had more turnovers than assists last year.  That's not good, FYI.


6.  Ole Miss.  This team is loaded on the perimeter.  If you haven't had a chance to watch Chris Warren play, I highly recommend you look for them on tv.  Warren is a driving force and is nearly unstoppable with the ball, but he got hurt last year and only played in 11 games, dooming the Rebels to a season that ended after the SEC tournament.  That shouldn't happen this year, assuming nobody gets hurt.  With all the injuries last year, Terrico White was thurst into a starring role and he thrived, winning SEC Freshman of the Year honors.  Assuming they get decent play from the front court, these guys are going to put a ton of points on the board.  It's if they can stop anybody that's in question - they were the worst defensive team in the SEC last season.

7.  South Carolina.  It turns out this conference is even deeper than I thought, because the Gamecocks feel like a team that should be much higher than 7th in their conference.  Two of their three big guns are back, and guard Devan Downey has the look of a player who will contend for the SEC Player of the Year.  He can score (37 against Baylor last year), but also turns the ball over way too much (8 TOs to 0 assists in that same game and just a 1.3 Ast/TO ratio).  If he can control the ball it will go a long way towards getting South Carolina back in the NCAA tournament.  Also I can never, ever, like this team since they stole Georgia Tech's "Lethal Weapon 3" nickname, when it was obvious to anyone that they were just a bunch of gunners and a total mirage - a belief completely vindicated when they went down as a #2 seed.  Karma, baby.  Karma.


8.  Florida.  I suppose losing your whole team after back-to-back national championships usually entails a rebuilding process, but it seems that it's not going all that well for the Gators.  Not that it's Billy Donovan's fault, since he's been hit by players leaving the program early the past couple seasons (Speights, Calathes, Lucas).  Even so, it doesn't feel quite right having Florida this low, and it wouldn't surprise me at all to see them in the NCAA tournament, especially if Kenny Boynton (Rivals #12) is as good as advertised.  He will pretty much have to be, because although Florida has some nice talent in their frontcourt - including transfer Vernon Macklin from Georgetown - the backcourt really needs some help.  Outside of Boynton, point man Erving Walker, who had a pretty good freshman year last season, is about all they have.

9.  Alabama.  I'm sort of thinking I have Alabama too low here, they could easily finish as high as fifth, but since I've already typed this out and the control key on my keyboard doesn't work, I don't feel like cutting and pasting.  Although he's not the team's leading returning scorer, sophomore JaMychal Green might be the key for the Tide this season.  He was a stud recruit last season (Rivals #21), and had a very good freshman campaign (10pts, 8 rebs, 2 blks per game), which included six double-doubles.  If he continues to improve and can become the offensive focal point it will go a long way towards a good season for the Tide.  Among a big and talented group of newcomers is Shawn Kemp, one of I assume several sons of THAT Shawn Kemp, one of my favorite NBA players of all-time.  (NOTE:  I am finding conflicting information, some sources say he is signed with Alabama, others say he has reopened his recruitment which seems weird since the season starts in like two weeks so I don't know what is going on except that there has been a hole in my soul since Kemp retired and it would be nice to have another Shawn Kemp to take his place). 

10.  LSU.  The Tigers had an excellent season last year, making it to the second round of the NCAA tournament, but the team has been gutted by graduation, and now they will return just two guys who averaged more than 2 points or 8 minutes per game last year.  Those two are pretty good - Bo Spencer is an excellent shooter and Tasmin Mitchell is absolutely one of the best inside/outside players in the country and will be in the NBA next season - but there isn't much else here.  A small recruiting class leaves the Tigers thin and inexperienced, and although Mitchell will be fun to watch, I don't see a whole lot else fun happening in the bayou this season.  They'll be back at the top soon enough - next year's recruiting class is a top 20 type of class already - but not this year.


11.  Auburn.  Remember last year, how Auburn won 10 conference games but still couldn't get an NCAA tournament bid because they went 10-4 through a non-conference schedule that would make Glen Mason blush?  Yeah, most of the good players from that team are gone.  Their leading scorer and assist man is back in DeWayne Reed, and he'll have a couple of guys to dish to on the wing who love to bomb the long ball in Tay Waller and Frankie Sullivan, but looking down low is going to be an issue.  Coach Jeff Lebo brings in a gaggle of 3-star players, three of them with good size, and will need one of them to play well or have one of the nondescript veterans step up.  They are still set up as a team that could get hot on the right night and knock off a much better team thanks to their shooters, but they aren't getting anywhere near the NCAA tournament.

12.  Georgia.  How bad is it for the Bulldogs right now?  CollegeHoops.Net does a preview of their top 144 teams every year, and this year Georgia failed to make the list [Gophers = #18].  Teams on the list include Texas A&M-Corpus Christi, Jackson State, South Carolina State, and Iowa.  They're worse than Iowa - ouch.  Two minor reasons for optimism - new coach Mark Fox, who had a lot of success at Nevada, and sophomore forward Trey Thompkins, a top 30 recurit last year who had an excellent first year for the Dawgs.  My new favorite player though might be their center Albert Jackson, who played more than 19 minutes per game last year despite his incredible 1-to-5.2 assist to turnover ratio, thanks to his season total of eleven.  The next Yinka Dare, perhaps?



Other Previews
Conference USA
Atlantic 10 
Mountain West 
Atlantic Coast 
Big Twelve
Big East