Everything is Great!

Well, we knew this was setting up to be a bad year, but I didn't expect this.  The loss to Temple, sure ok.  Decent team, Gophers are young and traveling for the first time, fine.  The near collapse against Missouri State?  Ok well they won.  That was a little scary but they managed.  The loss to Texas Tech?  Ugh (and nothing to do with Tubby because if you care about that you're dumb).  Man, maybe this team is even worse than I feared.  Near loss to Omaha?  Yikes!  Well, they managed to win so they're just treading water and should end up not too terrible eventually.  Then the win over Clemson!  Yes!  They're putting it together and Jordan Murphy is going to win the Heisman!!

Then came the past week.  Swept by the South Dakota schools.  So.  Gross.  A loss to SDSU on it's own wouldn't even be that bad, really.  The Jackrabbits have a sweet name, rank 50th in kenpom's ratings right now, and only have one loss on their schedule (though they haven't really beaten anyone).  That alone you could stomach.  But South Dakota is a garbage diaper dumpster fire.  They're 6-3 but have beaten nobody and have some bad, bad losses.  The Gophers had extra chances to get their shit together with the two overtimes and it just never happened.  Then SDSU just completely dominated from the start.  This is so ugly.

The team is just completely clueless defensively.  The rank 229th in defensive efficiency, giving up 1.04 points per possession, and this is against a schedule that features nobody ranked above the top 50 overall - that's really bad!  Here is a list of the power conference teams that are worse: .  That's not a typo.  There is nobody worse.  The only other times since 2002 (kenpom's existence) they've been worse than a 1 were Pitino's first year, the Molinari year, and Monson's worst year - and those were full season numbers which included Big Ten play.  This is just horrible.  Let's check something.  Let's pretend the Gophers finish at that 1.04 mark, which frankly seems pretty optimistic, and see how that rates historically among Big Ten teams.

1. 2008 Northwestern, 1.075
2. 2007 Penn State, 1.057
3. 2004 Ohio State, 1.052
4. 2015 Indiana, 1.048
5. 2005 Penn State, 1.044
6. 2016 Minnesota, 1.041

I mean this isn't just a bad defense, this is a horrific historically bad defense.  If things hold here it's the sixth worst defense in the Big Ten in the last 14 years.

It's so bad that you can't even simply blame the young team right now, you have to take a hard look at Pitino.  I fully supported the hiring at the time, and I have no quibble with the recruiting steps he's taken, but the on court and off court prep work is not coming together as I expected.  When he first got here there were some missteps and weird on court decisions, but you kinda figured that would improve since he was so young and inexperienced and I was willing to give him time.  But we're in Year 3 here, and not only has his coaching not improved, it's possible it's actually gotten worse, and I'm particularly talking about the constant defensive mistakes by the players.  If it's one player then ok, he's kind of a dunce, but it's multiple guys and it's happening often.  Teams don't shoot over 40% on threes against you by all being hot over 9 games.

Hey, I'm not saying to run him out of town or he needs to be fired or anything, but this team really needs to show improvement as the season goes along or there are going to be some hard questions to think about.  Let's hope it doesn't come to that, because I really like the direction the recruiting is heading in.

Next up - Oklahoma State in Sioux Falls, which is some kind of hilarious joke having to traveling to that damn state right after both their schools beat the Gophers.  Oklahoma State is also a bad team, sitting at 5-3 with zero Top 150 wins and their best wins over Long Beach State and Long Beach State who they've beaten twice which is weird.  They're coming off a loss to Missouri State, yes that Missouri State, and have also dropped games to Tulsa (decent) and George Mason (bad).  So congratulations Sioux Falls, here comes some crappy basketball.

The Cowboys don't shoot the three well and they don't shoot it often at all (though I expect both these to change on Saturday).  They do, however, take great care of the basketball (this matters less this year than other years since the Gophers are not creating any turnovers), and they make their two point shots and excel at free throws.  They don't cause many turnovers either, which means the Gophers will have plenty of chances to run offensive sets that don't go anywhere.  This is a terrible match-up.

OSU lost their top returning scorer to injury early on this year, not to mention the other 3 top scorers to graduation, so the cupboard was pretty bare.  They managed a nice, well rounded, spread it out scoring attack with five players averaging between eight and thirteen points per game this year.  Jeff Newberry (13.0ppg) is your do it all guard type, Chris Olivier (12.1ppg) is a low post scorer who is frankly going to eat Bakary Konate alive, Jawun Evans (10.1ppg) is the freshman point guard (4.3apg) and best shooter on the team with Phil Forte on the shelf with an elbow injury, Leyton Hammonds (9.8ppg) scored 20 in his first game back from injury versus Long Beach, and Jeffrey Carroll (8.1ppg) is a person.

This could just be me being pessimistic because ugh, but I honestly think this Gopher team is much worse than I thought, and I also believe Oklahoma State is a terrible match up for this team.  I do believe doors will be blown off on Saturday.

Ok State 88, Gophers 70.

A Whole Bunch of Weekend Tournaments

Well I guess the Gophers at least made it somewhat competitive.  Some other stuff happened around the country too.  Whatever.

COLONIAL CONFERENCE:
The CAA used to be maybe the premier mid-major conference, but alignment can be a bitch and losses of VCU, George Mason, and Old Dominion (all in the top 4 all-time for CAA championships) will do that to you.  There's not a whole lot to love here.  Northeastern beat Florida State and Richmond, while James Madison also beat Richmond.  That's about the list of notable non-conference victories.  You're also looking at four teams tied at the top of the conference at 12-6 so yeah, another crap shoot.

FAVORITE:  William & Mary.  The Tribe grab the #1 seed via tiebreakers, and although Northeastern has a slightly better kenpom rating it's not really that big a deal because I have no idea about this conference anyway.  They also went 5-1 against the three other teams they tied with (which was probably the tie breaker) which really just means they lost to a whole bunch of bad teams.  The Tribe also boast a big time scorer in Marcus Thornton (no not that one.  Or that one) at 19.4ppg, and a guy who I can only assume will be Defensive Player of the Year in Terry Tarpey considering he led the CAA in rebounding (8.4pg), blocks (1.4pg), and steals (1.8pg).  Damn that's impressive.

SLEEPER:  Hofstra.  They finished just behind the mishmash at the top at 10-8 in conference play, and the Pride most interest me because they can score.  They play at an insane tempo, don't turn the ball over, and are a great shooting team all of which means POINTS.  They are 16th in the country in points per game this year, and if you take out the teams which helped their averages beating up on a bunch of bottom feeder teams, while Hofstra is a bottom feeder team (or maybe middle, if I'm feeling generous) the Pride get into the top 10.  Anybody who can score like that has a chance to get hot, and hot is deadly in March.  Also wouldn't hurt to consider playing a little bit of defense.

THE PICK:  Hofstra.  When the conference is as jumbled as this, it seems to best to me to find something that stands out about someone.  Northeastern has those two "good" wins, but closed the season on a troubling skid.  William & Mary went 5-1 against the other top teams, but have the worst defense in the conference.  Delaware has the league's leading scorer but is a mess in every other way, and Wilmington can play D but can't score.  I considered James Madison, who finished out the year winning six of seven, but only one of those wins was against a good team.  Hofstra, along with that offense, tightened up the defense in conference play and is one of only two conference teams (along with Northeastern) to finish in the top 3 in the CAA in both offensive and defensive efficiency in conference play.  Good enough.


SOUTHERN CONFERENCE:
When you take the Davidson out of the SoCon, you weaken the SoCon, who ranks as a bottom nine conference this season per kenpom.  You also make things more competitive and weirder since you don't have one time gallivanting around dominating everyone with all their fancy three pointers.  Three teams ended up with double digit conference wins this year, and two of them enter the conference tournament with 20+ wins on the season overall.

FAVORITE:  Wofford.  The Terriers have been the best non-Davidson SoCon team over the years, making the NCAA Tournament three of the last five seasons and they're in the drivers seat again this year after going 16-2.  They didn't just beat up on conference foes either, as they picked up nice wins over Iona and North Carolina State in the early season.  If not for a terrible loss to Citadel and maybe one other good win they could have been a bubble team.  Leading scorer Karl Cochran (15ppg) was just named SoCon player of the year, and when the Gophers played Wofford last year I featured him as a great chucker.  He's still taking a silly amount of his team's shots (33%) but his shooting and assist levels have reach a point where I can't really call him a chucker anymore.  Just a volume shooter.

SLEEPER:  Chattanooga.  I don't know if it really counts as a sleeper when a team finished 15-3 and one game back, but outside of Wofford, Nooga, and Mercer the rest of this conference is horrendous.  I like Chattanooga because they can control the paint.  Actually their advanced numbers say they don't really control the paint, but they do have two guys who finished in the top 5 in the conference in rebounding, one of which who finished first in blocked shots with 3.3 per game, so it sure sounds like they could control the paint.  One thing they actually are is battle tested, having played four overtimes this year, going 3-1.  They also finished out on a six game win streak.

THE PICK:  Wofford.  No, they're no Davidson, but they're awfully hard to pick against.  The Terriers were in the top 2 in conference play in nearly every metric, and the only team in the top 3 in both offensive and defensive efficiency.  They're the second best shooting team and the hardest team to make baskets against.  Their top competition has serious flaws, and the Terriers have plenty of tournament experience.  Lotta pro-Wofford reasons piling up.


WEST COAST CONFERENCE:
Just like every year in the WCC it comes down to Gonzaga being in, one team being on the bubble (this year it's BYU), and then a whole bunch of spoiler teams out to ruin some other team's day.  This tournament became a lot less important for BYU after they won at Gonzaga last week.  Instead of maybe needing to win it, they probably just need to avoid a bad loss in their opener against either Santa Clara or Loyola Marymount, two teams they swept, and they might still end up ok if they lose that one anyway.  Win that one and then beat St. Mary's?  In, and good, because the Haws/Collinsworth combo rules.

FAVORITE:  Gonzaga.  Everyone always complains that Gonzaga is always overseeded because they don't play anyone, and then usually Gonzaga goes out and gets upset earlier than their seed should dictate.  I could sit here and go through the usual arguments:  tough non-conference schedule, great RPI and kenpom numbers, wins over SMU, Georgia, St. John's, UCLA, Memphis, and BYU with their only losses that BYU one and an overtime loss on the road at Arizona, and they're point to a good if not great team.  But you can make that same argument every year, and every year the same results.  One of these years, Gonzaga is going to have to prove it.

SLEEPER:  Pepperdine.  Not just because Rico Tucker went there, but because of their defense and slow it down tempo could throw a team like Gonzaga off.  It certainly worked against BYU earlier this year, where Pepperdine slowed the game down and shut off the three point line and it worked to the tune of a 67-61 victory.  The only other team to hold BYU under 70 points this season was defensive juggernaut Utah, so that's an impressive feat.  Look at the Waves 10-8 WCC record this year and they swept BYU, split with St. Mary's, and lost by 2 at home and 8 on the road versus Gonzaga.  Their 3-point stifling defense clearly can throw good teams for a loop (#1 in 3pt defense in the country at just 26% allowed) and it could work here, if they can manage to not get upset along the way.

THE PICK:  Gonzaga.  Their nearest contenders, BYU and St. Mary's, have some major flaws, while Gonzaga pretty much appears to be a mostly unstoppable machine (BYU loss notwithstanding), just like every year.  Considering they've won this tournament the last two years, and three of the last four, might as well stick with them.


SUMMIT LEAGUE:
The Summit is a total mess.  First, they have nine teams which is like, come on.  Now it's fine this year because Omaha is still in their transition phase, thus ineligible for the NCAA Tournament thus ineligible for the Summit Tournament.  To add to that, seven of the league's nine teams won between 6 and 12 games.  According to kenpom, however, there is a clear favorite.

FAVORITE:  South Dakota State.  The Jackrabbits, well known to most Gopher fans, rank 108th by kenpom, over 50 spots higher than their closest competition (NDSU).  The tournament is played in South Dakota (though in Sioux Falls, where USD is not located).  They have two of kenpom's top 5 players in the conference in Cody Larson and Deondre Parks, who can both do a little bit of everything.  Tops in both offensive and defensive efficiency in league play, and by a wide margin, in an average game SDSU would outscore their Summit opponents by 17 points.  Granted that number is skewed by some huge blowouts, but it's still impressive.

SLEEPER:  IP-Fort Wayne.  The Mastodons (for real) have a sweet name and went 9-7 in Summit play, but what makes them interesting is a sleeper is that they have a win over each of the three teams ahead of them.  Plus, Mastodons.

THE PICK:  North Dakota State.  Pretty sure this will come down to SDSU vs. NDSU as god has decried, with both teams raining three balls from the sky as they are inclined to do.  If that happens I'm pretty sure SDSU will win since the Bison can't guard against the three at all.  The reason I'm going with NDSU is I don't like how the bracket sets up for the Jackrabbits.  If South Dakota beats Fort Wayne, and they'll likely be favored by 3 or so and have some kind of home court advantage, they'll get SDSU next.  The same Jackrabbit squad they just beat by 16 in Sioux Falls Vermillion.  Good chance SDSU doesn't even reach the championship.


Outside the conference tournaments there is just a ton of relevant action.  I started to list games but I had like, 5 of the first 10 listed and who has that kind of time?  Just hunker down and watch.

Gopher 2013-2014 Basketball Schedule Revealed

The Gopher hoop non-conference schedule was revealed Tuesday.  And here it is.  Rankings are from last year.

11/8 vs. LEHIGH  (RPI 107, kenpom 96):  A possible top 100 team is always a solid way to kick-off the new year, however the Gophers are a year too late.  The players responsible for that awesome Lehigh win over Duke in the NCAA Tournament two years ago have graduated, with C.J. McCollum in the NBA and Gabe Knutson probably like, filing taxes or something since Lehigh is a nerd school.  Nerds and wrestling I think.  Definitely not basketball. 

11/12 vs. MONTANA (RPI 74, kenpom 160): Hey an NCAA Tournament team last year!  Let's rock and roll!  Actually the Grizzlies have a nice little program going with back-to-back Big Sky Championships and despite losing two of their top three scorers Montana is the most likely non-conference home opponent to end up in the NCAA Tournament this season.  Yes, that is correct.  I'm serious.  No you shut up.

11/16 @ RICHMOND (RPI 91, kenpom 83):  The back half of a home-and-home started by Tubby Smith, Richard Pitino honored the commitment so the Gopher will face the Spiders in their only true home game of the non-conference schedule.  Richmond brings back three starters from last year's totally mediocre team, and not only might this be a road game but is likely to be the toughest Gopher opponent this year outside of the Maui Invitational.  Richmond plays at a pretty slow pace under Chris Mooney so I really like this one as a test to see if the Gophers can impose their will and influence tempo in a tough environment.  Could be a pretty good barometer for the entire season, although I believe it's pronounced thermometer. 

11/19 vs. COASTAL CAROLINA (RPI 259, kenpom 226):  Not really the Gophers' fault they got stuck with these guys as their "first round mainland opponent" in the Maui Invitational, but they weren't good last year and lost their starting back court so I'm guessing they aren't going to be good this year either.  On the bright side, you can count on at least one member of the Twin Cities' sports media to bust out an article about what a Chanticleer is (besides tasty, terrific pizza).  I predict Reusse, especially if the Gophers lose the previous game at Richmond.  He loves that condescending shit, too bad he doesn't do it well.

11/21 vs. WOFFORD (RPI 250, kenpom 256):  Wofford has really fallen off since the great Noah Dahlman brought the Terriers to back-to-back NCAA Tournaments (and near wins against Wisconsin and BYU), but at least they are bringing some firepower back from last year's terrible team.  Plus they got a guy named Indiana Faithfull which is pretty fricking crazy.

11/25 vs. SYRACUSE (RPI 14,  in Maui, kenpom 8):  The jewel of the schedule without a doubt, because Syracuse should be in the mix to be a top 10 team again this year.  Also, earlier when I wrote about this match-up I mentioned it would be the great back court of the Gophers vs. the great front court of Syracuse, but it turns out I forgot about Michael Gbinije.  He's a combo guard who transferred to the Orange after one year at Duke.  He was the #29 recruit in the country coming out of high school.  He's also 6-7 and should play at the top of the most wing-spanny zone I've ever seen, which could have all five guys at 6-7 or taller at times.  As that weird creepy witch said in the Robin Hood with Kevin Costner, "We're doomed."

11/26 vs. ARKANSAS (RPI 95/kenpom 71)(CAL (RPI 54/kenpom 56) in Maui:  Cal should be the better match-up here with both teams saw their top player leave school early to enter the NBA Draft (Cal = Allen Crabbe, first round pick; Arkansas = B.J. Young, undrafted - ha ha!) because Cal brings back Justin Cobbs (back in more ways than one) and most of their team from last year while Arkansas also loses Marshawn Powell, the team's second leading scorer, who left the team to go play in Europe or something.  This will either be an addition by subtraction year for Arkansas or subtraction by subtraction and probably that second one.  Hope for Cal.

11/27 vs. Team 3 in Maui, anywhere from Gonzaga (RPI 6/kenpom 4) to Chaminade (not in D-I):  Other options are Baylor (RPI 70/kenpom 26) and Dayton (RPI 114/kenpom 67).  Obviously the better the opponent the better the potential results, but seeing as how it's not a random draw for each game you need to win to continue getting quality opponents.  Syracuse will be tough, but losing to them and then beating Cal and Baylor or something would still be an outstanding result.  Most likely results are a loss in round 1 and then a win over both Arkansas and Dayton.  Not bad, but not great.  Like a night with your mom.

12/3 vs. FLORIDA STATE (RPI 84/kenpom 124):  Andrew Wiggins screwed up everything by choosing Kansas over the Seminoles and now this game is more yawn than not yawn.  Last year was one of the worst year's these guys have had under Leonard Hamilton, and with Michael Snaer gone the question is if they'll be worse.  Most the rest of the team is back and guys like Okaro White and Terrance Shannon could certainly take a leap, and there's a nice freshman coming in but Snaer was the do-everything team leader type that's tough to replace.  Although given how little that mattered last season maybe it turns out chemistry is overrated after all.  Don't tell Gardy. 

12/7 vs. NEW ORLEANS (RPI 346/kenpom 346):  Now things get really, really ugly.  You could probably talk yourself into the schedule so far, but these last four games are just nasty, starting with the worst of the worst in the Privateers and yes I had to look that up.  They're also in the Southland starting this year after being independent (looked that up) after they used to be D-I but somehow dropped back into D-II or something like that and then got reinstated (remembering this on my own).  Should be a fun game though for the first half at least since they're one of the most uptempo teams in the nation.  I got news for you though.  Ervin Johnson isn't walking through that door. 

12/10 vs. SOUTH DAKOTA STATE (RPI 62/kenpom 103):  I'm sure everyone is thrilled again because for some reason people love the stupid little teams from the Dakotas, but guess what?  With Nate Wolters off to the NBA maybe SDSU just becomes a shitty little shithead team again.  Remember when the Gophers played them last year without Wolters?  Yeah it'll be like that again but probably worse because Jordan Dykstra probably still hasn't cut his hair.  I don't know what he's waiting for.  There is good news, however.  According to their website there are ZERO Minnesota natives on the roster this year.  So shut it already.

12/20 vs. NEBRASKA-OMAHA (RPI 285/kenpom 321):  I think they've been a D-I team for like 2 years, which is usually a pretty bad sign.  They kind of give the appearance of maybe being slightly interesting because 6 of their top 7 scorers from last season should be back.  The first college hockey game I ever went to was UMD vs. Nebraska-Omaha.  Their nickname is the Mavericks and they abbreviate their team NEOM.  The college World Series is still in Omaha.  I once had alligator in Omaha (not making that up...might have been Lincoln).  I'm just writing random facts now.  I once spent a night getting drunk in a hotel in Nebraska by myself.  Here is what I wrote that night.  Gripping.

12/28 vs.  TEXAS A&M CORPUS CHRISTI (RPI 323/kenpom 309):  Remember when these guys made the NCAA Tournament somehow and threw a little teeny tiny scare into Wisconsin before losing?  Man that would have been awesome if they one, am I right?  Since then they've had as many seasons with single-digit wins as double-digit, and I don't want to throw too many fancy stats at you or anything but not even winning 10 games in a season is a pretty good indicator of sucking and TAMUCC has back-to-back years with 6 total wins.  I was going to try to find something good to say but I need to get a drink so let's just wrap this up.


The key to a good schedule is lots of games against teams in the 50-150 range and avoiding playing teams that are sub 200 and especially sub-300.  The Gophers likely will have six or seven games against 200+ teams and might have three against teams in the top 100.  A strong league can smooth that out but you have to, you know, win the games.  It was always going to be an interesting season, but as Lewis Carroll once wrote, it's getting "interestinger and interestinger."

Friday Tournaments

I was going to write a bit more about the Gophers' loss and preview this weekend's game against Purdue, but I just can't.  It's just too much.  I bought in again after the Indiana and Penn State games, and was all set to officially pronounce them a lock for the NCAA Tournament after what I figured would be a fairly easy win against Nebraska and they go out and screw me over.  Bad lineup, bad substitution patterns, bad shooting, bad defense, bad everything.  I just don't know what to say any more.  They need one more win, somewhere, before I'll feel safe, and I'll feel safer if that win is at Purdue on Saturday.  Can they go 8-10 in conference play and get in without another quality win (which would mean two Big Ten Tournament wins)?  I just don't know.

At this point losing both of the next two wouldn't surprise me, and then not hearing their name called Selection Sunday wouldn't shock me either.  Forget how many good wins they have and their RPI and SOS - look at the road record and how they're finishing up.  It's too much for me to take.  Let's just concentrate on all the awesomeness that is March and forget all about Tubby Smith until Monday.  I'm going to make an effort to not watch the game, but I'm sure I will find myself doing it anyway.  I must really hate myself.


COLONIAL CONFERENCE
Not all that long ago the Colonial was the best mid-major in all the land, what with it's VCUs and George Masons making the Final Four and ranking as either the 12 or 13th best conference every year from 2010-2012.  This year VCU is gone to the A-10, GMU is super mediocre, Old Dominion never got off the ground, and other traditional conference powers like Drexel and Hofstra have been pretty bad.  Crappy teams like Northeastern and Towson have risen to the top, and the conference overall has floundered falling to 20th.  Not exactly a ringing endorsement.
FAVORITE:  Northeastern.  They have the #1 seed thanks to their 14-4 record, but rank just #172 according to kenpom.  I guess that's what you can expect when everybody in a conference is terrible.  Yuck, what happened here?  Plus the team that would have had the #2 seed, Towson, is ineligible for postseason play because not enough kids graduated or something.  I guess the best thing that could happen is for George Mason to win the tournament and then a bunch of people take them to win their first round game which will definitely not happen.  Point for me. 
SLEEPER:  George Mason.  Hey look, it's George Mason!  They actually fit the sleeper mold pretty well seeing as their the #4 seed but are the highest ranked team according to kenpom.  That doesn't make them any good mind you, but this year you don't really have to be good to get out of the CAA. 
W's PICK:  Delaware.  The Blue Hens have the league's leading scorer, a guy who led the league in rebounds and blocks while shooting 54% from the floor, and have gone 10-2 in their last twelve.  Good enough for me.

SOUTHERN CONFERENCE
It's a familiar story here where Davidson is head and shoulders above the rest of the league.  They struggled a bit post-Curry, missing the NCAA Tournament from 2009-2011, but made it back last year and should find themselves back once again, although they're going to have to do it the hard way and win the SoCon Tournament - this is a one bid league this year, Davidson or other.
FAVORITE:  Davidson.  Although this version of Davidson isn't on the level of the Stephen Curry teams, it's probably Bob McKillop's best squad since those days.  They're not in the at large discussion due to way too many bad losses this year, but they seem to have righted the ship going 17-1 in SoCon play.  They're a good, solid, if a little boring mid-major team and there isn't much else in the conference to even challenge them.  They'll be interesting if they make it to the NCAAs because they lead the nation with a team 81% free throw percentage and they get to the line a lot.  Against the wrong, hacky team that would give them a huge advantage.  Kansas State is a very possible, and very favorable, match-up for Davidson.  Plus my 2 year old could outcoach Bruce Weber.  
SLEEPER:  College of Charleston.  Even when they aren't a very good team (22-9 isn't terrible or anything, but it's come against a pretty sorry schedule) Charleston always seems to be in the mix somehow.  I'd feel better if Bobby Cremins was still there, but of all Davidson's home conference foes only Charleston was able to keep the final margin within double digits.  Good enough for me.
W's PICK:  Davidson.  They're just so much better than everybody else in this conference.  It would be a pretty major upset if the Wildcats don't make the NCAA Tournament.

SUN BELT CONFERENCE
This is one I'll be watching closely, because there's a team here (Middle Tennessee - yes, the team the Gophers beat in the NIT quarters last year) who has taken care of business all year, but simply has had a horrific schedule - partly terrible conference and partly poor OOC scheduling - and so there resume doesn't really stack up with most other bubble teams, but I hope they can win out in the Sun Belt tourney and go to the dance.  For once, this hope is simply because I think they should be rewarded and not because I don't want to worry about another bubble team stealing a bid when they could help everyone relax and get an automatic.  Feels good. 
FAVORITE:  Middle Tennessee.  That 27-4 overall record and 19-1 in conference play is impressive, even if the Sun Belt is down a bit this year.  It's even more impressive when you consider the Blue Raiders closed out with 16 straight wins and their lone conference loss came on the road and in overtime.  Although the non-conference schedule lacks any kind of big signature win, they did beat Ole Miss, Vanderbilt, and Central Florida this year so they have at least knocked off some names if nothing.  Funny, that overtime loss at Akron early in the year might be the difference between an at-large berth and heading back to the NIT.
SLEEPER:  Louisiana-Lafayette.  The Ragin' Cajuns aren't a very good team by any stretch of the imagination, but they dominate the Sun Belt statistical leaders list with two guys in the top five in scoring along with the #2 rebounder and the top assist man, top steals guy, and a top fiver in blocked shots.  Sure, all these spots on the leaderboard are really just two guys and they benefit from a team that plays at one of the fastest paces in the country, but hey........Cajuns!
W's PICK:   Troy.  They're terrible, but because I really want Middle Tennessee to win this tournament and make it that practically guarantees they lose, and fully expect their spot to be taken by not only a terrible team, but a terrible team who plays at one of the slowest paces in the country.  Like a more boring Wisconsin.  Yes, that's a real thing.

MID-ATLANTIC ATHLETIC CONFERENCE
There was a time, when we were truly degenerate gamblers, when Bogart and I could have told you anything you wanted to know about the MAAC (or the Ivy) since those were the only two conferences that played on Friday nights and we bet nearly every one of their games.  Manhattan was a juggernaut behind Luis Flores.  Niagara, Siena, and Fairfield were solid teams.  Loyola-MD and Canisius were terrible, and St. Peter's was always a wild card because they were pretty bad but had Keydren Clark so you never knew what they were gonna do.  Although we've lost touch with our beloved MAAC (we are still degenerate gamblers, don't worry) it's grown up without us because the overall league is much better than it used it be.  It's also much more boring because there isn't a dominant team this year.
FAVORITE:  Niagara.  The Purple Eagles not only have a sweet name that sounds like it was thought up by a four year old, they're also one of the best in the country at not turning the ball over (20th in the country).  That's important because when you can't shoot, and Niagara can't, it's important to maximize your possessions.   A point in Niagara's favor, however, is that they balance out their poor shooting by playing horrendous defense.
SLEEPER:  Rider.  Niagara won the league, but were swept by the Broncs (no, not Broncos - just Broncs).  They also have a pretty good player in Jonathon Thompson, who I assume is related to Jason Thompson who I am guessing is the only NBAer from Rider and was pretty much unstoppable on March Madness for playstation2 back in the day.  Yes, I played a franchise as Rider.  I told you I was obsessed with the MAAC.
W's PICK:  Iona.  Another league where there's a whole handful of teams who could legitimately win this thing.  I'm going with the Gaels because they have the best offense in the league and sport the league's best player (or at least best scorer) in Lamont Jones, formerly of Arizona.  I can see a New York senior (from Harlem) putting the gas down and bringing his New York school to the NCAA Tournament as his last hurrah.  Kind of like Trey Ziegler staying home to play for Dad at Central Michigan and then that team sucking so badly for two years his dad got fired, only the opposite.

SUMMIT LEAGUE
This league was supposed to be a battle of North and South Dakota State, just like when they fought in the Civil War, and although it certainly was, Western Illinois jumped up, using an 8-1 conference start en route to a 13-3 conference record, including a sweep over NDSU, and the #2 seed. 
FAVORITE:  South Dakota State.  The Jackrabbits got the #1 seed, are the league's #1 rated offense, swept Western Illinois, and have the league's best player in Nate Wolters who might be the easiest pick for conference player of the year than any other player in any other conference.  They're pretty horrendous defensively but have made up for it by making a ton of three-pointers - two things that just scream "this team is ripe for an upset in March".
SLEEPER:  Oakland.  The Golden Grizzlies are the only team in the Summit to have taken a bite (lol) out of all three top seeds, splitting with each team.  They're a horrendous defensive team, but the offense obviously can be good enough to pick them up and upset anybody in the league on any given night.  Can they do this for three games?  No.
W's PICK:  North Dakota State.  The Bison have been without leading scorer Taylor Braun since mid-January due to injury, but he's back now and it doesn't look like he's missed a beat (22 pts last game).  When NDSU had Braun they started 6-0 in conference including a win over SDSU, but went just 5-4 when he was out and even without him for that stretch kenpom's still rates NDSU as the best team in the Summit by a wide margin. 

In last night's bubble-related news, Virginia and Kentucky both lost road games to bad teams which will slide them under the Gophers, almost no matter what.  At this point even if the Gophers lose the next two and UVA and Kentucky don't go on a big conference tournament run they won't catch the Gophers.  Sad that we need to actually care about that kind of thing again this year, but here we are.

Best news of the night (for a College BB fan)?  Colorado crushed Oregon to ensure they're in (Oregon is probably in too).  I like this Buffaloes team and they got screwed out of a win at Arizona earlier so I'm happy to see them in.  Worst news?  Louisiana Tech got crushed by New Mexico State for their first WAC loss, which drops them to 26-4 and 16-1 and sadly based on everything else that's probably enough to kill their at-large hopes.  That's why you have to play, you know, somebody at some point.

So that'll do it folks.  Have a good weekend and I hope all your dream come true.  Somebody text me after the Gopher game and let me know what happens because I'm sure as shit not going to watch it.*

* = of course I am.

Minnesota 88, South Dakota State 64

Well that was a pretty thrilling Gopher win, huh?  Not because they beat a Nate Wolters-less Jackrabbits team, but because sportsbooks didn't factor in the fact that the team was going to be Wolters-less.

See, the spread on the game opened with the Gophers as 14.5 point favorites.  Mid-day there were some tweets going around that Wolters sprained his ankle, didn't participate in the team's shoot-around that day, and was questionable to play.  The spread only moved to 15, so at that point I jumped on it figuring he'd be limited at best.  Then, about a half-hour before game time, more tweets came out that he wasn't looking good or very confident about playing on it.  The spread still only moved to 15.5, so I doubled up.  Then, maybe 10 minutes or so before the game, it because official he wasn't playing.  Spread stayed at 15.5, so I tripled up on my double up.  Easy win.  SDSU would have been a 25 point underdog at least if Wolters was known to not be playing, and the books clearly didn't pay much attention to this game, don't know who Wolters is, or simply didn't care.  In any case it was a nice payday and an easy one, and those are the best kind.  I feel pretty bad I didn't give Bogart or TRE the heads-up on this, but I was too wrapped up in it myself.  Oh well.

As for the game, the Gophers continue to do what they've done all year - play great defense and efficient offense.  I mean you can't get more efficient than Andre Hollins.  22 points on 8-9 shooting and 6-7 on threes?  And his only miss was an absolute ridiculous heat check that nobody could ever make ever?  You gotta be kidding me.  Add that performance to his 41 points on 16 shots versus Memphis and that has to be two of most efficient 20 points games this year.  I'm sure that info is out there somewhere (ranking these) but I don't know where to find it.

He was far from the only stud last night though, as Joe Coleman and Austin Hollins continue to develop into really, really good players.  One big thing I noticed last night about Austin is how much more assertive and confident he is with his jump shot.  Where the last two years he'd catch the ball on the wing and kind of size up if he was open enough to shoot and then maybe shoot, but this year he's already able to determine if he's going to be open enough to shoot before he gets the pass and just catches, rises, and fires.  And I'm not just talking short shots, he's doing it on three-pointers.  Take that with his always there but suddenly really emerging athleticism and he's a hell of a player.  As for Coleman he does incredible things considering he has a forward's game in a guard's body.  He's tough, strong, and determined and an amazing inside scorer for someone who is just 6-4.  He's just fearless - basically the complete opposite player of his brother.  I mean does anyone get more of his own misses in the paint than Joe?  He's like, a genius at it.  Dan and Joe must have switched bodies like Jason Bateman and Ryan Reynolds in that movie with that chick from 40-year-old Virgin who pukes in the car at some point because each's abilities are the exact opposite of what you'd want from someone in their bodies.  Can you imagine Dan with Joe's game?  Whoa.

Maybe the craziest part of this team is I've now droned on for 500+ words about them and still haven't mentioned either of their two best players from last season.  Trevor Mbakwe, who nearly had a double double, who mainly seems to have settled into his sixth man/big-time rebounder.  The only problem with that is he still has NBA aspirations, and I don't think he's going to get there averaging 7 pts and 8 rebounds per game.  That would also be why he unveiled that absolutely god awful turnaround fade-away jumper last night that he should never, ever take again under any circumstances.  I still think he's easing his way into being a force, so I'll reserve more judgement on him until later in the year.  Then Rodney Williams, whose stats made it look like he was kind of invisible last night but he wasn't because he blocked two shots nearly back to half court, was trying to prove he can shoot from the perimeter (note:  he still can't) and then later when he decided "this shit sucks when I don't score" he dunked all over some poor ginger bastard.  Basically they didn't need him, and that was pretty awesome, actually.

Excellent, if easy, game, from a very good team.  The first five are outstanding if you sub Mbakwe in for Eliason (who isn't terrible anymore).  Welch, Osenieks, Ingram, Walker, and Ahanmisi are a good bench that isn't great but can fill in some gaps, and with a starting 6 this good they aren't needed in games that are going to be close for more than 3-8 minutes each, but they're also capable enough to fill in for 12-15 if that situation should arise at some point this year or at least that's what I keep telling myself.  Simply put, I believe in this year's squad and I'm in love with them and I don't care who knows it.  Also, how sweet would it be for Wolters to get back, the Jackrabbits to go on a huge run, and this ends up loooking like a super easy win over a top 100 team?  Pretty cool, right?  Right.

Back tomorrow with a preview of the USC game, the only losable game left.  As long as they win that one they should cruise to home wins against NDSU and Lafayette and most likely will be ranked in the top 10 going into the big Dec. 31 game versus Michigan State.  And that, my friends, is where we are going to learn an awfully, awfully thought about our favorite team.  In the immortal words of that one guy, "NO WHAMMIES NO WHAMMIES NO WHAMMIES!"

Week in Review - 11/14/2011 (+ mini South Dakota State preview)

Hey thanks internet.  You are supposed to be there to let me watch the Pacquiao/Marquez fight without having to pay a dime.  Instead I had to watch 3 seconds at a time and then stare at a god damn hour glass.  You failed me internet.  You failed me.  We are totally fighting.

WHO WAS AWESOME.

1.  Gopher hoops.  Click here for a proper recap, but to put it short, that was a solid win against a solid team, and the fact that they were able to actually manage to come back from down 5 with six minutes to go, against said solid team, just really impresses me.  I guess I have a low impress threshold.  I suppose it's just one more thing Gopher basketball has stolen from me.  And yet I can't stop going back.  I'm like a beaten woman, aren't I.  Oh my god I'm Aaliyah and the Gophers are Chris Brown.

2.  Royce White.  God mother hell shit fart.  This sucks.  Royce with 25 and 11 in his ISU debut, with 3 blocks and a couple assists to go with it.  And here's you, sitting there in your Laz-E-Boy watching Cops and swirling your brandy around even though it's fucking Korbel and making snide comments about how you wonder how many security guards he's pushed down or how many laptops he's stolen.  It's people like you that will always hold the Gopher basketball program down with your judging judgement.  What about the bible, fella?  Doesn't it say "don't be a pompous judgmental ass or I'll turn you into a pillar of salt" or something?  I think it's in Leviticus.

3.  Utah State.  There were better wins this weekend - UNC's over Michigan State for one - but between pure emotion and actual effect on an NCAA bid Utah's State's win over BYU might end up being the biggest.  In terms of NCAA Tournament implications, Utah State always needs quality wins since they're in the WAC where quality wins are basically impossible to come by and this was only one of three games against quality opponents for USU.  Huge win in the RPI sense.  Also a huge win in the "i hate these fuckin' guys" sense, because Utah Staties hate BYU, mostly because they're a bunch of prissy dickheads.  Here is a video of Utah State students welcoming BYU to their arena.  Solid effort.

4. Kendall Marshall.  You know how sometimes thing don't live up to the hype like Terra Nova, every Hannibal Lecter movie after Silence of the Lambs, flavored Mountain Dew (other than Live Wire), the last two George R.R. Martin novels, or having kids?  Well I finally got a good chance to watch Kendall Marshall on Sunday against UNC-Asheville and this dude is straight legit.  The stats are crazy - he had 15 assists - but just watching him it's clear he's the best point guard UNC has had since Ed Cota and he might even be better.  He's got that smooth playability about him where he doesn't really look like he's moving quickly or even really trying (like Evan Turner) but continually gets past people and his court vision is off the charts.  Whether it's a simple entry pass, running the break, or getting the ball up the court as fast as possible by passing it ahead, he's a legit point guard and as far as pure points go I'm thinking he might be the best in the country.  Outside of Justin Cobbs, of course.

5. Mark Sanchez.  Actually he sucks and couldn't get the Jets in the end zone with four plays inside the 10 at the end of the game, but he's awesome because as part of a teaser I had Jets/Pats under 54 and so boom.  The final leg is Vikes/Pack over 43, and there's almost no way the Pack doesn't even get there by themself, am I right?

WHO SUCKED

1.  UCLA.  You know how the Pac-10 has been in shambles for a few years and getting even two NCAA bids was kind of an accomplishment?  Well it's probably going to happen again.  Arizona looks like a sloppy mess right now, but at least they managed to not eff it up so badly that they actually lost, unlike the Bruins.  Yes, UCLA managed to lose their opener.  Not only did they lose, they lost to a mid-tier WCC team in Loyola-Marymount.  At home.  By 11.  The first time LMU beat UCLA since 1941.  Ouch.  Particularly impressive was point guard Lazeric Jones going 1-11 from the field for the Bruins, but they'll get some help at the point next game when Jerime Anderson is back, who was suspended one game for stealing a laptop this summer.  Huh?  A one game suspension for stealing a laptop.  How interesting.  Personally I would have run him right off campus and made sure he transferred out, probably going to a school in a neighboring state where he'd have a right smashing debut.  It's the proper way to handle it.

2.  Butler.  I know Butler lost to Evansville last year early and still made the Nat Champ Game, and I know that losing Shelvin Mack and Matt Howard would be pretty tough for anybody so dropping a game to Evansville (in Evansville) is probably not that big a deal. Then again, last year at 9-9 was the first time Evansville reached .500 in conference (MVC) play since 2000 so losing to them is not exactly excusable.  Let me put it this way, outside the Aces two wins over Butler the last two years their only notable non-conference win dating back to 2001 was over Purdue in 2005.  This ain't exactly a giant killing program.  Maybe Evansville just has Butler's number, or maybe it's going to take a while to adjust to no Howard and no Mack, but maybe Butler just flat sucks this year.  They're going to struggle there's no doubt, because there's some quality Horizon opponents this year.  And speaking of......   

3. Vanderbilt.  You know how every time Vandy has a supposed good team they get bounced early in the NCAA Tournament?  Well apparently this year's version decided just to go out and start disappointing people right away because they lost on Sunday to Cleveland State 71-58.  Now in reality losing to Cleveland State isn't that bad of a loss because Cleveland State is one of the best teams in one of the best mid-major conferences in the country, and they will likely be in the running for an at-large bid come end of the year if they don't win the Horizon tournament.  But still, this was at Vanderbilt and the Commodores supposedly have their best team of all time and are ranked 7th in the country, so due to those circumstances this is a pretty crappy loss.  Vandy sucked, you might even say.

4. Kansas City Chiefs.  Actually there were so many NFL teams who embarrassed themselves this week it was hard to pick just one.  The Chiefs lost (at home) to Denver despite the Broncos completing just two passes the entire game.  The Ravens lost to the T-Jax led Seahawks while passing 53 times and only giving Ray Rice eight carries.  The Lions got smoked by the Bears by something like 50 points, the Eagles continued their unstoppable march to mediocrity by losing at home to a terrible Eagles team, and Buffalo reminded everyone they are Buffalo by getting crushed by Dallas.  Just a bizarre week in the NFL with a lot of really ugly games by ugly teams.  I'd say at this rate the Vikings actually have a chance to beat the Pack tonight.

5. Cain Velasquez. I don't know why I keep trying to get back into these fighting sports.  First Mayweather/Ortiz which ends in Floyd knocking out Ortiz while Ortiz is defenseless (his own fault but still), then Hopkins/Dawson which ended with an essential body slam and/or an old man looking to quit.  Now Saturday night I decide to check in on UFC and I get to see Velasquez, the "champion" (quotes should be read as air quotes), get hit in the face once, fall down, and then cry.  Seriously, pros should be able to take a punch, if I wanted to watch someone get knocked out I'd just ask someone to hit me (although the one time it actually happened after Dawger pickd a fight with some gang member and some other dude sucker punched me in the face and I was all like I will kill you mother fucker but he knocked my glasses off so I couldn't see shit and had no idea what was going on but I asked some other gang member dude to help me find my glasses since it was bullshit that the dude sucker punched me and he actually helped me look for them).  So yeah, I could beat up Cain Velasquez.  FACT.



As far as the Gophers go, they keep it going by taking on South Dakota State tonight.  The Jackrabbits are on a very similar plane as Bucknell as far as talent level goes - a good team from a terrible conference - and it should be a similar story to the Bucknell game - they have some good players and can be dangerous if the Gophers either don't play well or take them too lightly, but the Gophers really have no excuse for losing this game.

SDSU is another team that shoots the ball very well from three (41% last year) and they have a player in Nate Wolters who can take over a game and who many people who are stupid think should be a Gopher.  Wolters has a shot at winning Summit League Player of the Year this season, averaged 19 points, 5 rebounds, and 6 assists per game last year, and opened up this year by dropping 32 (with 11 assists) in the Jackrabbits' win over Western Michigan.  Wolters is also from St. Cloud, which means people in this state are needlessly in love with him and also means he'll have a bit of extra motivation.  Him coming out and scoring 30+ is a very real possibility.

There are a couple of other decent players here (Jordan Dykstra in the post and SG Griffen Callahan both have the ability to score 20), but, like on Friday, the Gophers have more size, athleticism, ability, talent, and depth.  I expect SDSU to come out with a burst of emotion and grittiness and keep this one tight in the first half, but the Gophers should pull this one out by 10+ by the time it's over.  Of course, I say should, but once again this isn't a cupcake opponent and if the Gophers let them get hot from the perimeter and nobody's making shots for the Gophers isn't going to be tough.  Mbakwe and Sampson will probably be doubled again all day, so somebody else is going to have to help.

Or Mbakwe just grabs 20 boards and scores on putbacks all game because SDSU has absolutely nobody who can keep him off the glass.

Minnesota 72, South Dakota State 62

(If you're looking for something a little more in-depth, I'd assume From the Barn has got you covered)

 

 

This picture comes up if you search for Jackrabbits Cheerleaders.  Good enough, amiright?

Game Preview: Minnesota Gophers vs. South Dakota State Jackrabbits

There are basically two interesting story lines for tonight's Gophers vs. Jackrabbits matchup:  the return of Al Nolen and the return of Nate Wolters.

Less interesting to me is the Wolters story, yet another heart-warmer about a kid from Minnesota (St. Cloud) who was not recruiting by the Gophers, signed with a smaller school, as has gone on to find some success (currently averaging 19 points, 4 rebounds, 6 assists, and 2 steals per game).  He is deadly from three (46%) but can score in a lot of ways, and obviously is good with the ball, as he not only averages those 6 assists but does it without turning the ball over - just 1.5 per game - and is a big reason why the Jackrabbits are one of the best teams in the country at taking care of the basketball.  They turn it over on just 15% of their possessions, good enough for #2 in the entire country behind just BYU.

Along with Wolters, they have three other very solid guards in Clint Sargent (13.5 ppg), Chad White (10.4 ppg), and Griffen Callahan (9.8).  White (51%) and Callahan (49%) are excellent three point shooters, while Sargent (28%) is a bomber who leads the team in attempts.  Obviously this team is perimeter oriented, and since they don't turn it over they are going to get their shots.  Naturally, this worries me because the Gophers continue to show an inability to cover the perimeter.  Which brings me to storyline #2.

Al Nolen will return, playing for the first time since a foot injury kept him out after the NDSU game.  Since then we've seen Minnesota lose to Virginia due to a lack of energy and perimeter defense, and barely win over such great teams as Cornell, St. Joe's, Eastern Kentucky, and Akron, letting these teams stay in the game (or lead for much of it) due to a lack of energy and perimeter defense.  Can Al Nolen fix these issues by himself?

It's hard to do a statistical comparison of the team pre and post Nolen injury, because the schedule was so much more difficult before he got hurt, but the results in point spread alone are interesting.  The only true cupcake they played with him in the lineup was North Dakota State, a game the Gophers won by 19.  Their four wins over the crap teams they beat with him out - all four of which rank as worse than NDSU according to kenpom.com - they won by less (5, 10, 13, and 8).  In all four of those game (and Virginia) they either trailed or the game was tight into the second half or halftime - whereas in the NDSU game they started to pull away in the first half and never looked back, something a quality team should do against this level of competition.

That's not to say they were perfect with Nolen, of course.  Siena kept the game tight, but the way they blew out NDSU, the way they ran away from Western Kentucky in the second half, and the impressive wins over North Carolina and especially West Virginia say that this is a far different team with Al Nolen out there.  His numbers might not be the most impressive, and he drives me crazy from time-to-time, but his energy, his ball-handling, his defense, and his ability to get past anybody off the dribble are so valuable to this team - something I didn't quite understand until he was gone.  Like that song Candle in the Wind.

He completely controls the game when he's on the court, and the Gophers don't have anybody who can match his skill set when he's not there.  Chip Armelin may be as fast, but he doesn't dribble as well.  Blake can probably handle the ball as well, but he's far slower on both ends of the court.  Devoe Joseph is a much better shooter, but can't handle the ball.  And nobody is as good at reading a pass before it's made and getting into the passing lane.  Nolen ranks 26th in the country in steal percentage at 5%, which means he steals the ball on 5% of the opponents possessions when he's on the court.  An incredible number that ranks 8th if you only look at major college players and if you count Oregon State as a major college.

I'm not exactly sure why I'm writing so much about him, especially with very few numbers and stats, but maybe this is my apology.  I've bashed Nolen like crazy for his shortcomings without stopping to appreciate what it is he does well and what he brings to this team, not to mention how much they need him.  He's still going to drive me nuts every time he picks up his dribble in the lane with no clue what he's going to do with it, and I really wish he had a reliable jump shot, but he's far better than I gave him credit for.  I love you Al.  You're the best (and I'm not just saying this because he's on my fantasy team).

I believe.

Minnesota 90, South Dakota State 60.