A Whole Bunch of Weekend Tournaments

Well I guess the Gophers at least made it somewhat competitive.  Some other stuff happened around the country too.  Whatever.

COLONIAL CONFERENCE:
The CAA used to be maybe the premier mid-major conference, but alignment can be a bitch and losses of VCU, George Mason, and Old Dominion (all in the top 4 all-time for CAA championships) will do that to you.  There's not a whole lot to love here.  Northeastern beat Florida State and Richmond, while James Madison also beat Richmond.  That's about the list of notable non-conference victories.  You're also looking at four teams tied at the top of the conference at 12-6 so yeah, another crap shoot.

FAVORITE:  William & Mary.  The Tribe grab the #1 seed via tiebreakers, and although Northeastern has a slightly better kenpom rating it's not really that big a deal because I have no idea about this conference anyway.  They also went 5-1 against the three other teams they tied with (which was probably the tie breaker) which really just means they lost to a whole bunch of bad teams.  The Tribe also boast a big time scorer in Marcus Thornton (no not that one.  Or that one) at 19.4ppg, and a guy who I can only assume will be Defensive Player of the Year in Terry Tarpey considering he led the CAA in rebounding (8.4pg), blocks (1.4pg), and steals (1.8pg).  Damn that's impressive.

SLEEPER:  Hofstra.  They finished just behind the mishmash at the top at 10-8 in conference play, and the Pride most interest me because they can score.  They play at an insane tempo, don't turn the ball over, and are a great shooting team all of which means POINTS.  They are 16th in the country in points per game this year, and if you take out the teams which helped their averages beating up on a bunch of bottom feeder teams, while Hofstra is a bottom feeder team (or maybe middle, if I'm feeling generous) the Pride get into the top 10.  Anybody who can score like that has a chance to get hot, and hot is deadly in March.  Also wouldn't hurt to consider playing a little bit of defense.

THE PICK:  Hofstra.  When the conference is as jumbled as this, it seems to best to me to find something that stands out about someone.  Northeastern has those two "good" wins, but closed the season on a troubling skid.  William & Mary went 5-1 against the other top teams, but have the worst defense in the conference.  Delaware has the league's leading scorer but is a mess in every other way, and Wilmington can play D but can't score.  I considered James Madison, who finished out the year winning six of seven, but only one of those wins was against a good team.  Hofstra, along with that offense, tightened up the defense in conference play and is one of only two conference teams (along with Northeastern) to finish in the top 3 in the CAA in both offensive and defensive efficiency in conference play.  Good enough.


SOUTHERN CONFERENCE:
When you take the Davidson out of the SoCon, you weaken the SoCon, who ranks as a bottom nine conference this season per kenpom.  You also make things more competitive and weirder since you don't have one time gallivanting around dominating everyone with all their fancy three pointers.  Three teams ended up with double digit conference wins this year, and two of them enter the conference tournament with 20+ wins on the season overall.

FAVORITE:  Wofford.  The Terriers have been the best non-Davidson SoCon team over the years, making the NCAA Tournament three of the last five seasons and they're in the drivers seat again this year after going 16-2.  They didn't just beat up on conference foes either, as they picked up nice wins over Iona and North Carolina State in the early season.  If not for a terrible loss to Citadel and maybe one other good win they could have been a bubble team.  Leading scorer Karl Cochran (15ppg) was just named SoCon player of the year, and when the Gophers played Wofford last year I featured him as a great chucker.  He's still taking a silly amount of his team's shots (33%) but his shooting and assist levels have reach a point where I can't really call him a chucker anymore.  Just a volume shooter.

SLEEPER:  Chattanooga.  I don't know if it really counts as a sleeper when a team finished 15-3 and one game back, but outside of Wofford, Nooga, and Mercer the rest of this conference is horrendous.  I like Chattanooga because they can control the paint.  Actually their advanced numbers say they don't really control the paint, but they do have two guys who finished in the top 5 in the conference in rebounding, one of which who finished first in blocked shots with 3.3 per game, so it sure sounds like they could control the paint.  One thing they actually are is battle tested, having played four overtimes this year, going 3-1.  They also finished out on a six game win streak.

THE PICK:  Wofford.  No, they're no Davidson, but they're awfully hard to pick against.  The Terriers were in the top 2 in conference play in nearly every metric, and the only team in the top 3 in both offensive and defensive efficiency.  They're the second best shooting team and the hardest team to make baskets against.  Their top competition has serious flaws, and the Terriers have plenty of tournament experience.  Lotta pro-Wofford reasons piling up.


WEST COAST CONFERENCE:
Just like every year in the WCC it comes down to Gonzaga being in, one team being on the bubble (this year it's BYU), and then a whole bunch of spoiler teams out to ruin some other team's day.  This tournament became a lot less important for BYU after they won at Gonzaga last week.  Instead of maybe needing to win it, they probably just need to avoid a bad loss in their opener against either Santa Clara or Loyola Marymount, two teams they swept, and they might still end up ok if they lose that one anyway.  Win that one and then beat St. Mary's?  In, and good, because the Haws/Collinsworth combo rules.

FAVORITE:  Gonzaga.  Everyone always complains that Gonzaga is always overseeded because they don't play anyone, and then usually Gonzaga goes out and gets upset earlier than their seed should dictate.  I could sit here and go through the usual arguments:  tough non-conference schedule, great RPI and kenpom numbers, wins over SMU, Georgia, St. John's, UCLA, Memphis, and BYU with their only losses that BYU one and an overtime loss on the road at Arizona, and they're point to a good if not great team.  But you can make that same argument every year, and every year the same results.  One of these years, Gonzaga is going to have to prove it.

SLEEPER:  Pepperdine.  Not just because Rico Tucker went there, but because of their defense and slow it down tempo could throw a team like Gonzaga off.  It certainly worked against BYU earlier this year, where Pepperdine slowed the game down and shut off the three point line and it worked to the tune of a 67-61 victory.  The only other team to hold BYU under 70 points this season was defensive juggernaut Utah, so that's an impressive feat.  Look at the Waves 10-8 WCC record this year and they swept BYU, split with St. Mary's, and lost by 2 at home and 8 on the road versus Gonzaga.  Their 3-point stifling defense clearly can throw good teams for a loop (#1 in 3pt defense in the country at just 26% allowed) and it could work here, if they can manage to not get upset along the way.

THE PICK:  Gonzaga.  Their nearest contenders, BYU and St. Mary's, have some major flaws, while Gonzaga pretty much appears to be a mostly unstoppable machine (BYU loss notwithstanding), just like every year.  Considering they've won this tournament the last two years, and three of the last four, might as well stick with them.


SUMMIT LEAGUE:
The Summit is a total mess.  First, they have nine teams which is like, come on.  Now it's fine this year because Omaha is still in their transition phase, thus ineligible for the NCAA Tournament thus ineligible for the Summit Tournament.  To add to that, seven of the league's nine teams won between 6 and 12 games.  According to kenpom, however, there is a clear favorite.

FAVORITE:  South Dakota State.  The Jackrabbits, well known to most Gopher fans, rank 108th by kenpom, over 50 spots higher than their closest competition (NDSU).  The tournament is played in South Dakota (though in Sioux Falls, where USD is not located).  They have two of kenpom's top 5 players in the conference in Cody Larson and Deondre Parks, who can both do a little bit of everything.  Tops in both offensive and defensive efficiency in league play, and by a wide margin, in an average game SDSU would outscore their Summit opponents by 17 points.  Granted that number is skewed by some huge blowouts, but it's still impressive.

SLEEPER:  IP-Fort Wayne.  The Mastodons (for real) have a sweet name and went 9-7 in Summit play, but what makes them interesting is a sleeper is that they have a win over each of the three teams ahead of them.  Plus, Mastodons.

THE PICK:  North Dakota State.  Pretty sure this will come down to SDSU vs. NDSU as god has decried, with both teams raining three balls from the sky as they are inclined to do.  If that happens I'm pretty sure SDSU will win since the Bison can't guard against the three at all.  The reason I'm going with NDSU is I don't like how the bracket sets up for the Jackrabbits.  If South Dakota beats Fort Wayne, and they'll likely be favored by 3 or so and have some kind of home court advantage, they'll get SDSU next.  The same Jackrabbit squad they just beat by 16 in Sioux Falls Vermillion.  Good chance SDSU doesn't even reach the championship.


Outside the conference tournaments there is just a ton of relevant action.  I started to list games but I had like, 5 of the first 10 listed and who has that kind of time?  Just hunker down and watch.

Friday Tournaments

I was going to write a bit more about the Gophers' loss and preview this weekend's game against Purdue, but I just can't.  It's just too much.  I bought in again after the Indiana and Penn State games, and was all set to officially pronounce them a lock for the NCAA Tournament after what I figured would be a fairly easy win against Nebraska and they go out and screw me over.  Bad lineup, bad substitution patterns, bad shooting, bad defense, bad everything.  I just don't know what to say any more.  They need one more win, somewhere, before I'll feel safe, and I'll feel safer if that win is at Purdue on Saturday.  Can they go 8-10 in conference play and get in without another quality win (which would mean two Big Ten Tournament wins)?  I just don't know.

At this point losing both of the next two wouldn't surprise me, and then not hearing their name called Selection Sunday wouldn't shock me either.  Forget how many good wins they have and their RPI and SOS - look at the road record and how they're finishing up.  It's too much for me to take.  Let's just concentrate on all the awesomeness that is March and forget all about Tubby Smith until Monday.  I'm going to make an effort to not watch the game, but I'm sure I will find myself doing it anyway.  I must really hate myself.


COLONIAL CONFERENCE
Not all that long ago the Colonial was the best mid-major in all the land, what with it's VCUs and George Masons making the Final Four and ranking as either the 12 or 13th best conference every year from 2010-2012.  This year VCU is gone to the A-10, GMU is super mediocre, Old Dominion never got off the ground, and other traditional conference powers like Drexel and Hofstra have been pretty bad.  Crappy teams like Northeastern and Towson have risen to the top, and the conference overall has floundered falling to 20th.  Not exactly a ringing endorsement.
FAVORITE:  Northeastern.  They have the #1 seed thanks to their 14-4 record, but rank just #172 according to kenpom.  I guess that's what you can expect when everybody in a conference is terrible.  Yuck, what happened here?  Plus the team that would have had the #2 seed, Towson, is ineligible for postseason play because not enough kids graduated or something.  I guess the best thing that could happen is for George Mason to win the tournament and then a bunch of people take them to win their first round game which will definitely not happen.  Point for me. 
SLEEPER:  George Mason.  Hey look, it's George Mason!  They actually fit the sleeper mold pretty well seeing as their the #4 seed but are the highest ranked team according to kenpom.  That doesn't make them any good mind you, but this year you don't really have to be good to get out of the CAA. 
W's PICK:  Delaware.  The Blue Hens have the league's leading scorer, a guy who led the league in rebounds and blocks while shooting 54% from the floor, and have gone 10-2 in their last twelve.  Good enough for me.

SOUTHERN CONFERENCE
It's a familiar story here where Davidson is head and shoulders above the rest of the league.  They struggled a bit post-Curry, missing the NCAA Tournament from 2009-2011, but made it back last year and should find themselves back once again, although they're going to have to do it the hard way and win the SoCon Tournament - this is a one bid league this year, Davidson or other.
FAVORITE:  Davidson.  Although this version of Davidson isn't on the level of the Stephen Curry teams, it's probably Bob McKillop's best squad since those days.  They're not in the at large discussion due to way too many bad losses this year, but they seem to have righted the ship going 17-1 in SoCon play.  They're a good, solid, if a little boring mid-major team and there isn't much else in the conference to even challenge them.  They'll be interesting if they make it to the NCAAs because they lead the nation with a team 81% free throw percentage and they get to the line a lot.  Against the wrong, hacky team that would give them a huge advantage.  Kansas State is a very possible, and very favorable, match-up for Davidson.  Plus my 2 year old could outcoach Bruce Weber.  
SLEEPER:  College of Charleston.  Even when they aren't a very good team (22-9 isn't terrible or anything, but it's come against a pretty sorry schedule) Charleston always seems to be in the mix somehow.  I'd feel better if Bobby Cremins was still there, but of all Davidson's home conference foes only Charleston was able to keep the final margin within double digits.  Good enough for me.
W's PICK:  Davidson.  They're just so much better than everybody else in this conference.  It would be a pretty major upset if the Wildcats don't make the NCAA Tournament.

SUN BELT CONFERENCE
This is one I'll be watching closely, because there's a team here (Middle Tennessee - yes, the team the Gophers beat in the NIT quarters last year) who has taken care of business all year, but simply has had a horrific schedule - partly terrible conference and partly poor OOC scheduling - and so there resume doesn't really stack up with most other bubble teams, but I hope they can win out in the Sun Belt tourney and go to the dance.  For once, this hope is simply because I think they should be rewarded and not because I don't want to worry about another bubble team stealing a bid when they could help everyone relax and get an automatic.  Feels good. 
FAVORITE:  Middle Tennessee.  That 27-4 overall record and 19-1 in conference play is impressive, even if the Sun Belt is down a bit this year.  It's even more impressive when you consider the Blue Raiders closed out with 16 straight wins and their lone conference loss came on the road and in overtime.  Although the non-conference schedule lacks any kind of big signature win, they did beat Ole Miss, Vanderbilt, and Central Florida this year so they have at least knocked off some names if nothing.  Funny, that overtime loss at Akron early in the year might be the difference between an at-large berth and heading back to the NIT.
SLEEPER:  Louisiana-Lafayette.  The Ragin' Cajuns aren't a very good team by any stretch of the imagination, but they dominate the Sun Belt statistical leaders list with two guys in the top five in scoring along with the #2 rebounder and the top assist man, top steals guy, and a top fiver in blocked shots.  Sure, all these spots on the leaderboard are really just two guys and they benefit from a team that plays at one of the fastest paces in the country, but hey........Cajuns!
W's PICK:   Troy.  They're terrible, but because I really want Middle Tennessee to win this tournament and make it that practically guarantees they lose, and fully expect their spot to be taken by not only a terrible team, but a terrible team who plays at one of the slowest paces in the country.  Like a more boring Wisconsin.  Yes, that's a real thing.

MID-ATLANTIC ATHLETIC CONFERENCE
There was a time, when we were truly degenerate gamblers, when Bogart and I could have told you anything you wanted to know about the MAAC (or the Ivy) since those were the only two conferences that played on Friday nights and we bet nearly every one of their games.  Manhattan was a juggernaut behind Luis Flores.  Niagara, Siena, and Fairfield were solid teams.  Loyola-MD and Canisius were terrible, and St. Peter's was always a wild card because they were pretty bad but had Keydren Clark so you never knew what they were gonna do.  Although we've lost touch with our beloved MAAC (we are still degenerate gamblers, don't worry) it's grown up without us because the overall league is much better than it used it be.  It's also much more boring because there isn't a dominant team this year.
FAVORITE:  Niagara.  The Purple Eagles not only have a sweet name that sounds like it was thought up by a four year old, they're also one of the best in the country at not turning the ball over (20th in the country).  That's important because when you can't shoot, and Niagara can't, it's important to maximize your possessions.   A point in Niagara's favor, however, is that they balance out their poor shooting by playing horrendous defense.
SLEEPER:  Rider.  Niagara won the league, but were swept by the Broncs (no, not Broncos - just Broncs).  They also have a pretty good player in Jonathon Thompson, who I assume is related to Jason Thompson who I am guessing is the only NBAer from Rider and was pretty much unstoppable on March Madness for playstation2 back in the day.  Yes, I played a franchise as Rider.  I told you I was obsessed with the MAAC.
W's PICK:  Iona.  Another league where there's a whole handful of teams who could legitimately win this thing.  I'm going with the Gaels because they have the best offense in the league and sport the league's best player (or at least best scorer) in Lamont Jones, formerly of Arizona.  I can see a New York senior (from Harlem) putting the gas down and bringing his New York school to the NCAA Tournament as his last hurrah.  Kind of like Trey Ziegler staying home to play for Dad at Central Michigan and then that team sucking so badly for two years his dad got fired, only the opposite.

SUMMIT LEAGUE
This league was supposed to be a battle of North and South Dakota State, just like when they fought in the Civil War, and although it certainly was, Western Illinois jumped up, using an 8-1 conference start en route to a 13-3 conference record, including a sweep over NDSU, and the #2 seed. 
FAVORITE:  South Dakota State.  The Jackrabbits got the #1 seed, are the league's #1 rated offense, swept Western Illinois, and have the league's best player in Nate Wolters who might be the easiest pick for conference player of the year than any other player in any other conference.  They're pretty horrendous defensively but have made up for it by making a ton of three-pointers - two things that just scream "this team is ripe for an upset in March".
SLEEPER:  Oakland.  The Golden Grizzlies are the only team in the Summit to have taken a bite (lol) out of all three top seeds, splitting with each team.  They're a horrendous defensive team, but the offense obviously can be good enough to pick them up and upset anybody in the league on any given night.  Can they do this for three games?  No.
W's PICK:  North Dakota State.  The Bison have been without leading scorer Taylor Braun since mid-January due to injury, but he's back now and it doesn't look like he's missed a beat (22 pts last game).  When NDSU had Braun they started 6-0 in conference including a win over SDSU, but went just 5-4 when he was out and even without him for that stretch kenpom's still rates NDSU as the best team in the Summit by a wide margin. 

In last night's bubble-related news, Virginia and Kentucky both lost road games to bad teams which will slide them under the Gophers, almost no matter what.  At this point even if the Gophers lose the next two and UVA and Kentucky don't go on a big conference tournament run they won't catch the Gophers.  Sad that we need to actually care about that kind of thing again this year, but here we are.

Best news of the night (for a College BB fan)?  Colorado crushed Oregon to ensure they're in (Oregon is probably in too).  I like this Buffaloes team and they got screwed out of a win at Arizona earlier so I'm happy to see them in.  Worst news?  Louisiana Tech got crushed by New Mexico State for their first WAC loss, which drops them to 26-4 and 16-1 and sadly based on everything else that's probably enough to kill their at-large hopes.  That's why you have to play, you know, somebody at some point.

So that'll do it folks.  Have a good weekend and I hope all your dream come true.  Somebody text me after the Gopher game and let me know what happens because I'm sure as shit not going to watch it.*

* = of course I am.

Gophers vs. NDSU Live Blog

I couldn't make it to the game tonight, but will be watching live, so why not live blog for the first time this year?  I used to do this to some critical acclaim, so might as well fire it up.

20:00 - Announcer guys point out Tubby has 113 career wins with Minnesota.  Pretty sure nearly 4 of those are against good Big 10 teams.  Need to double that up this year.

20:00 - How bad is that Kevin Correia signing by the way?  And 2 years!??!??  He's a right-handed, National Leagued Nick Blackburn and they already tried that last year with Jason Marquis.  I guess somebody has to mop up the fifth spot, but why not let's the kids throw rather than burning it on a younger Marquis?  Or, they think he can be the #3 guy, which is the worst thing I've ever heard.

20:00 - ZOMBIE NATION!! Oh oh oh oh oh, oh oh oh oh oh oh oh oh, oh oh, oh oh

19:47 - Elliott Elliason draws a quick foul.  Unguardable.

19:43 - Rodney with a long 2.  Terrible shot, but it went down.  Gonna be an easy game if that's happening.

18:38 - NDSU plan seems to be get the ball to Bjorklund on the block against Elliason, and Gophers are content to not help, which is a good call since NDSU shoots the three so well.  They've gone to him on all three possessions so far and gotten a block shot by Elliason, a hoop, and a 3-second call.  And, not for nothing, but Elliason needs to be able to handle Summit League big men before he can get a lot of conference minutes.

17:21 - Joe Coleman gets lost on defense again (although to be fair he's been MUCH better this year) which leads to a wide open monster dunk by NDSU white guy, which is actually the kind of play you can't let the Bison get off because pretty soon they're going to "start to believe they can win" which is a total cliche but cliches are true for a reason and I really don't want these farmer dorks hanging around.

16:55 - Coleman gets burned by the guy with the ball after not switching quickly enough off a pick.  He is a truly horrendous defender.

16:04 - Both Hollins's have missed open threes.  Don't like how this game is going.  Not just the score (9-4 NDSU) but everything about it.  This game is french fried taters and I'm the opposite of the sling blade guy.

15:30 - Rodney dunk.  He has all six for the Gophers.  At least he looks good.

15:03 - Going to TV timeout at 9-6 NDSU with Dre going to the line.  Gophers really upped the intensity all of a sudden.   Hopefully that translates into you know, winning, and stuff.

15:03 - Weird D-Backs and Indians trade just went down.  Looks like a 6-player swap of prospects and middle relievers.  The bad news?  Trevor Bauer to the Indians.  Would really prefer to NOT have him in the AL Central.  Felt the same way about Chris Sale, and see?  I'm always right.

14:57 - Andre missed both.  Sweet heavens of jesus wept.

13:41 - All they do is run Felt (big-time 3-point guy) around screens the whole time he's in there.  Good test for Austin since you know he's going to be getting all the toughest defensive assignments.  Well him or Joe Coleman.

12:51 - Maverick throws the ball directly to a NDSU player.  He was trying to hit Oto on the wing though, so it's probably a wash.

12:25 - I'm going to pretend Welch tried to bank that one.

11:59 - Felt drives into the lane and manages to get called for a charge and airball a floater at the same time.  I'm guessing that's why they tell you to hang out on the perimeter, wiener.

11:34 - Has Oto gone retarded?

11:28 - I think there may have been more to that trade.  I'm only getting partial info from Twitter and it's too hard to search for it while trying to count how many passes Osenieks can drop on one possession.  Also, Mbakwe grabbing every board in sight right now.  13-12 Gophers.

10:48 - Ahanmisi hits the 3-ball off a Mbakwe kick out (3 fantasy points for me!).  I hate to say it - like really really hate it - but he's not been completely horrendous this year.

9:39 - Welch/Ahanmisi/Osenieks/Ingram/Mbakwe is not a good look.  There's nobody in that group who can create offense.  Mbakwe is the closest thing but I don't know if it's the knee or what but he doesn't seem to have much of a post game this year.

8:16 - This appears to be one of those games where Coleman plays with his head in his rectum.

7:58 - Did you ever stop and think that the classic Christmas song "Baby It's Cold Outside" is about date rape?  Think about it.

7:11 - I don't take back what I said about Coleman, but my goodness is he clever when he has the ball in the lane.  Probably from playing in the driveway with the taller Dan growing up.  Then again, he probably could just bump Dan once and he'd quit and go inside to play Bubble Bobble.

5:36 - Rodney Williams with a 360 that somehow managed to also be an absolute hammer dunk.  Got to be #1 on SportsCenter.  They like dunks and stuff.  Gophers 26, NDSU 20.

4:41 - I cannot decide if Mo Walker looks good or horrible.  It's the same every game.  He's a two-face.

4:14 - Wait, a two face either looks good or bad.  Mo is a decision I just can't make.  Rather than a two face he's more like Michelle Williams or Robin Tunney.

2:40 - Back to back 5 second calls.  You don't see that every day.  Or ever.

0:53 - Tip-jam for Mbakwe.  Does my heart good to see it.  Like a bunny holding a kitten.

0:00 - Hollins' three as the half ends and the Gophers close on an 8-0 to go into the half up 11.  They should (SHOULD) just need to just keep putting the hammer down to win this one easily.  We shall see.

0:00 - Rodney dunk already on youtube thanks to zipsofakron who writes either for the Gopher Hole, From the Barn, or both:

0:00 - So this has nothing to do with the Gophers, but I can't stop laughing at this Jay Cutler story since I read about it about a week ago.  I mean, it could be a completely random time of the day with nothing going on and I'll think about it and just laugh.

Friend is in a bar in Chicago during the off-season. He goes to the bathroom and sees Jay Cutler, hat on backwards, taking a piss at the urinal. So the guy starts going to the bathroom and says, “Hey, I’m a huge fan, also went to Vanderbilt… ”
Jay throws his head back, still pissing, eyes half-closed because he’s drunk, interrupts him with, “DOOOONNNNTTTTTT CAAAAAARRRREEEEEE.”

 Cannot stop giggling.  Like a little girl.

20:00 - Choo to Cincy is the main piece of the trade, with the Indians getting Bauer and Drew Stubbs.  I can't wait to watch Stubbs face Correia.  The stoppable force vs. the movable object when it comes to strikeouts.  Gonna be sweet.

17:23 - 37-29 Gophers.  I missed the start of the half because I was melting american cheese on saltines which is delicious and Mbakwe is already in.  Maybe he started the second half which maybe we are done with this nonsense.

16:44 - Mbakwe with 10 boards already.  Looking pretty good.  Twitter nerds attacking that dude who wrote how he "had no explosiveness" anymore.  Relax, nerds.  So Trevor dunked.  He didn't even do a 360 or anything.  I'm going to go make this same joke on twitter now, as I watch Mbakwe make another lay-up against some hapless fool.

15:43 - Dre Hollins takes it to the rack 1-on-4 in transition, has it knocked away out of bounds.  I don't care what fundamental dorks say, I like a little reckless in my PG.

15:26 - Gophers realizing NDSU can't deal with either Rodney Williams or Mbakwe down low and just feeding the post.  Nice to see them appear as if they are coached.  For the last several years, whether Tubby was coaching or not, it sure didn't look like it.

14:29 - Mbakwe air-balls a free throw.  That's his second one this year (at least).  Between that and Andre Hollins actually missing free throws something weird is going on.  Even more weird?  Coleman, Elliason, and Williams all hitting 70%.  It's kind of like when you're playing Contra and you lose all your lives but player 2 has some left so you just steal one.

 13:30 - 49-32 Gophers and looking like they've taken control.  Best news of this game is that Mbakwe is looking a lot like his old self tonight, absolutely crashing the boards with reckless abandon with 13 boards and 6 on the offensive end.  Remember last year when he'd all of a sudden just decide, "yeah, I'm going to get every missed shot now"?  It's like that.  In sad news, do you realize when Williams and Mbakwe graduate next year's big man duo will be Elliason and Walker.  Oof.

12:55 - Andre Ingram would be a very promising sophomore.

12:08 - Osenieks really shoots like a shooter.  He doesn't make them like a shooter, but he shoots like one.

9:45 - The way Walker has played tonight, and he just missed a lay-up, I'm starting to think he's not a two face he's just ugly.  I'll give him the benefit of the doubt since he's still dealing with coming back from an injury, but that feels like an excuse.  That's an excuse, isn't it?  It is.  I knew it.

7:28 - Gophers trying to let NDSU back in the game here up just 57-45 now.  Good thing NDSU is terrible.

6:43 - Wow.  Rodney Williams just blows right by his guy coming from the perimeter, then when dude overcommits to stop the drive he stops on a dime, pivots in the other direction, and hits the turnaround jumper.  NBA level move right there.

4:42 - Another rebound for Mbakwe.  That's like, 15 or something.  Austin hits a J on the break and Gophers up 66-50.  I'm getting tired.

3:37 - Wally Ellenson on the floor for the Gophers.  I guess we solved the question of the redshirt.  And he immediately turns it over.  Great.

2:55 - Ellenson nearly turns it over again but is bailed out with a foul call.  EVERYTHING IS GOING GREAT!

1:40 - Ellenson continues to play like a walk-on.  I'll give him the benefit of the doubt, obviously since it's his first game, but not exactly impressed.  Gophers up 70-57.  Line is 14.

0:00 - Gophers win 70-57.  Do not cover.

Preview: Minnesota Gophers vs. North Dakota State Bison or whatever

North Dakota?  More like North Dasnowka, am I right?  I have no idea why I just wrote that.  But then again, you read it, so I think it was probably your fault.  Let's just agree to disagree.

Anyway, the Bison come to the Barn Thursday to take on the Gophers and I couldn't be more pumped.  Wait, no.  I mean the opposite of that.  Apathetic. That's not right either.  Less-pumped.  Something. 

I guess they aren't terrible.  They do have a 8-2 record and rank as the 107th best team in the country according to Ken Pomeroy's advanced metrics, but even though those take opponent into account this is still a fantastically terrible schedule.  Their best opponent so far has been Arizona State (rank #144) who beat them by ten.  They also have a pretty terrible loss to Western Carolina (#242) and there are only four other top 200 teams on the schedule.  It's hard to get any kind of read on a team with that line of shitbox schedule, but thanks to advanced stats I'll try.

The Bison have done well this season by holding opponents to poor shooting (both from 3 and 2), shooting well themselves (particularly from 2), and taking care of the basketball.  The Gophers don't shoot and can't shoot from three so that's pretty irrelevant, and the Gophers biggest weakness should at least be minimized because although the Bison are a decent three-point shooting team they don't take that many - this game will be played inside the perimeter.  Both teams' strengths are shooting inside the 2-point line and both defend there well, with the Gophers having a slight edge.  The Gophers also commit and cause a whole lot of turnovers, while the Bison don't cause any and commit even fewer.  It's a fairly even match looking at strengths and weaknesses, and I'm going to be honest here - that makes me nervous.

On an individual basis, the Bison employ a very balanced attack with five players scoring between 8.5-14.1 points per game and being involved in at least 20% of the team's possessions.  And oh my holy christ I'm boring myself to sleep.  How do people do this all serious like this all the time.  I'm done.

Here's what you need to know:

NDSU sucks.  They suck.  They don't suck like in a way where the Gophers can't possibly lose like Mt. St. Mary's or some shit, but they're terrible, they've played nobody, they've beaten nobody, and they've been beaten by some piss poor teams.  There is absolutely no way the Gophers shouldn't beat them down like Stephen Davis did to Michael Westbrook.  Or the other way around, I don't remember.  Doesn't matter.  North Dakota sucks.  The team sucks, the program sucks, everything sucks.  I know they had their cute little run with all those white guys who lost to Kansas, but that was a once in a lifetime experience because they just suck.  The one time I somehow ended up in that stupid state even their Taco John's sucked which should be impossible.

If you wanted to be some kind of dicknose and spin things in NDSU's favor you could say that the team is really balanced and has a lot of quality players.  Of course, the real reason they're balanced is because they don't have any good players and are just loaded with adequate ones.  Any one of a half-dozen guys could kill the Gophers, but none of them should.  As an added bonus they only have one good 3-point shooter (Mike Felt "erup"), so as long as the Gophers remember that he's the guy they need to watch (terrifying prospect) they shouldn't get beat out there, and NDSU simply doesn't have the athletes to beat them in any other way. 

When lines come out I fully expect this one to be the Gophers by about 10 (that's what kenpom predicts it at and the lines are usually pretty close).   If they can't beat this crap factory by at least that there's no reason to even bother with this season.  Look I'm sorry.  They're a cute little team who probably makes the folks in Sioux Falls feel all tingly inside when they beat up on Nebraska-Omaho at the Indian Hater Dome or whatever, but if this team can hang with the Gophers it doesn't mean "look out for the Sues" it means "the Gophers fucking suck." 

I don't know.  Maybe I'm just cranky because Kubel left but I'm not ok with an 8 point win or some shit. Blow these fuckers out.  It's like playing five Rudys, and Rudy is one of the worst movies of my lifetime.  No, I'm serious.  If you like that movie you should do a cannonball onto a pitchfork.  So stupid.  Great, so the little wiener gets his big chance and gets a sack.  And then what?  HE'S SPENT HIS WHOLE FUCKING LIFE GETTING PAID TO TALK ABOUT IT.  What a loser.  And now it turns out he might have been stealing people's money.  I don't know, google it.  This shit is bananas.

Gophers 99, Sioux 30.  Also I just realized at some point in this garbage rant I started referring to the Bison as the Sioux.  My bad and all but also not my fault because it's irrelevant because they're both the same because they both suck and should get physically assaulted by the Gophers.  Whatever.  Like it's even a real state.

Will you look at this?  What the shit is this?

Minnesota Gophers vs. North Dakota State Bison Preview

When the North Dakota State Bison come to Williams Arena Wednesday night there is one and only one thing to worry about:  a letdown.  You know NDSU is going to come into this game treating it was the biggest game on their schedule, or at least non-conference schedule.  Little brother always wants to knock off big brother, the team is loaded with Minnesota-born players, NDSU is always amped to play the Gophers, and even though the Gophers have always handled the Bison, even when they were good that one year, it's going to be a little difficult to be up for this game coming off the huge tournament win.  So that's the priority - come out firing, come out intense, and play as well as they can rather than coming out flat and playing down to an opponent.  And it would be playing down, because NDSU doesn't have the same firepower bunch of nerds they had a few years back. 

That's not to say they are a cupcake, at least not completely.  They come in at 3-1 with wins over a good Big West team in UC-Santa Barbara and a so-so Sunbelt team in Denver, and took Oregon into overtime before losing, so they aren't exactly going to roll over and die.

The Bison's top player is returning leading scorer is Michael Tveidt, a 6-7 combo forward who was a key contributor on that good NDSU team.  He's averaging 16 points per game so far this year and lit up Oregon for 27.  After struggling with his three-point shot last year and hitting at just a 30% clip, he's been of fire so far this season going 10-15 from behind the line.  That's something that is going to be a concern for the Gophers, because it's not just Tveidt - the entire team shoots 53% from three-point land, good enough for #1 in the nation.  They don't chuck threes in high-volume, but they're great when they do - every player with a three-point attempt on the season is shooting at least 40%.

A couple of big weak spots are going to play into the Gophers' hands, however.  First, the Bison don't have the size to compete with the Gophers dominating front line.  Only one contributor to the team is taller than 6-7:  6-8 freshman Marshall Bjorklund, and most of their other size comes from tall but skinny wing players.  The only other real post presence they is the 6-6, 220 lb. Eric Carlson, a junior power forward who averages 13 points and 6 rebounds a game and who ESPN describes as "playing bigger than he is."  That sounds great and all, but I still have no idea how they're going to deal with Mbakwe, Sampson, and Iverson, and the Gophers should absolutely feast in the paint and on the offensive glass, and NDSU has been terrible keeping opponents off the boards (209th in the country in allowing opposing offensive rebounds) and blocking shots (332nd in the country).  All this points to a dominating performance inside for Minnesota.

Even if the Bison figure out a way to keep the Gophers away from the paint, they will need to take care of the ball against the swarming Minnesota defense, something they've struggled with this year.  They've turned the ball over on 21.4% of their possessions so far this season, ranking them 188th in the country, and that has been against teams that rank 210th (Oregon), 39th (UCSB), and 200th (Denver) in creating turnovers, as well as a D-II school (Mayville State).   Bad news for the Bison, because Minnesota ranks 99th and they've played five quality opponents.  With no experience at point guard and a team assist-to-turnover ratio of 1-to-1, I would be shocked if NDSU held their turnovers under 20 in this game, which will lead to even more easy buckets for the Gophers.

The difference in talent levels here is huge between these two teams, and if that's not enough the Bison weaknesses play right into the Gophers' hands.  This one isn't going to be close.

Minnesota 88, NDSU 60.

A Quick and Early look at the Gopher Basketball Non-Conference Schedule

Alright, so before when I said I wasn't going to do a post about the Gophers non-conference schedule I was obviously lying, because here is a post about the Gophers non-conference basketball schedule.  I have tried to keep this information as accurate as possible, but there are always things that slip through and not even a genius such as myself can keep up with which players may or may not have been kicked off/left the team for every school in the country.  At least I can guarantee their records are accurate.  Probably.

Nov 2 vs. Northeastern State, Nov 8 vs. Winona State - Whatever.  Pass.

Nov 12 vs. Wofford College
Record:  26-9 (15-3 SoCon), lost in first round of NCAAs to Wisconsin
Good Wins:  @ Georgia, South Carolina
Last Year RPI:  70
Starters Lost:  1 (
NOTES:  A nice homecoming game for seniors Noah "The more successful" Dahlman and Cameron Rundles, the Terriers should be favorites to repeat in the SoCon and will probably be the Gophers biggest test outside of Puerto Rico.  Even so, this is a slow team without the athletes needed to keep up, and should be the first in a long line of easy wins to open the season.

Nov 15 vs. Siena
Record:  27-7 (17-1 MAAC), lost in first round of NCAAs to Purdue
Good Wins:  None
Last Year RPI:  33
Starters Lost:  3
NOTES:   One of the hottest mid-major type teams the last few years, the Saints should take a step back this year with a lot to replace including Ronald Moore, the national assist leader, and Edwin Ubiles and Alex Franklin, their two leading scorers and all-around threats from the wing.  Still, they do have some firepower back (Clarence Jackson is going to explode this year) and will probably be the second best team the Gophers will face - which still means they should be an easy win.

Nov 18 vs. Western Kentucky (in Puerto Rico)
Record:  21-13 (10-6 Sun Belt)
Good Wins:  Vanderbilt, Murray State
Last Year RPI:  138
Starters Lost:  2
NOTES:  Top player A.J. Slaughter is gone, but the Hilltoppers have a bit of a mini-mid-major dynasty going and reload their roster with a very good recruiting class this season.  They are bringing in five new players, including SG Brandon Peters who ranks as Rivals #129 freshman and a couple other three star recruits, along with a couple of transfers from Big 12 schools (Oklahoma and OSU).  It's probably good the Gophers get them early, because I have a feeling they are going to be a lot tougher by the end of the year.

Nov 19 vs. North Carolina (in Puerto Rico, assuming they beat WKU)
Record:  20-17 (5-11 ACC), lost in NIT Championship game to Dayton
Good Wins:  Ohio State, Michigan State, Wake, Miss State
Last Year RPI: 64
Starters Lost:  2 (I think)
NOTES:  It's hard to say how many starters the Tar Heels lost because they used so many lineups last season and never really were able to figure the team out until the NIT, but don't let the record fool you they have a ton of talent.  Harrison Barnes is amazing, John Henson started to look like he figured it out late in the season, Reggie Bulluck should be awesome, and really it just goes on and on.  Of course, I would have said basically the same thing last year, but I find it hard to believe UNC is going to be at that level back-to-back seasons.

Nov 21 vs.  Vanderbilt or West Virginai (or Nebraska or Davidson)
NOTES:  Most likely this will be either WVU or Vandy, and a win over either would be a challenge and a nice resume builder.  I think if they manage to beat UNC I'd hope for a championship matchup with he Mountaineers in order to get the biggest scalp possible, but if they lose to the Heels I'd hope they go up against Vandy, which would still be a nice win but an easier win as well.


Nov 24 vs. North Dakota State
Record:  11-18 (8-10 Summit)
Good Wins:  None
Last Year RPI:  267
Starters Lost:  3
NOTES:  This is not the same scrappy, rough-and-tumble, senior white boy led squad from a couple of years ago.  This is just a bad team.  Look at that RPI.  Now realize it's going to be about the same this year.  Worthless game here, rather than giving a few third and fourth tier former Minnesota high school players a chance to play in the Barn.  I guess I can see some value in that, and if this was the only game against an opponent like this, I wouldn't complain.


Nov 29 vs. Virginia (Big 10/ACC Challenge)
Record: 15-15 (5-11 ACC)
Good Wins:  UAB, Georgia Tech
Last Year RPI:  123
Starters Lost:  2
NOTES:  We get Virginia again the Challenge, which is a yawner, especially since their best and most exciting player, Sylvan Landesberg, got essentially booted off the team last year and is currently trying to hook on with an NBA squad.  Still, Tony Bennett is already starting to pay dividends on the recruiting trail, bringing in a very good class including #30 in the country K.T. Harrell, #108 James Johnson, #119 Joe Harris, and #148 Will Regan.  Wait.  Holy crap that's a really good class.  Virginia is on their way back to relevance (like, Harold Deane/Curtis Staples territory), and I'm now amending my previous statement and saying that THIS will be the toughest non-Puerto Rico game.

Dec 4 vs. Cornell
Record:  27-4 (13-1 Ivy), lost in the Sweet 16 of the NCAAs to Kentucky
Good Wins:  Temple, Wisconsin, Alabama, Harvard x 2
Last Year RPI:  37
Starters Lost:  4
NOTES:  Stop.  Just stop.  This is not a good opponent.  Last year was lightning in a bottle because they had 1.  A high quality coach, 2.  A legitimate scoring threat who could take over the game, 3.  A skilled 7-footer who was a weapon on offense and defense, and 4.  A point guard who could control the game.  All those things are gone.  The Gophers will win by 40, and at the end of the season their RPI will be north of 200.

Dec 8 @ St. Joseph's
Record:  11-20 (5-11 A-10)
Good Wins:  Dayton, Boston College
Last Year RPI:  180
Starters Lost:  2
NOTES:  The only true road game on the non-conference slate, always a good sign of a challenging schedule, and it's against a team with an RPI of 180 last year who will probably be even worse.  This is a truly horrible game, because nobody gives a crap if you win on the road against a team like this, but they are just good enough (and the Gophers are historically shaky enough on the road) to pull of an upset, which really hurts NCAA bid chances.  I am interested in seeing C.J. Aiken, a freshman who Rivals ranks as the #8 incoming center in the country who is playing for the Hawks for some reason that I assume involves a lost bet or alcohol.   


Dec 11 vs. Eastern Kentucky
Record:  20-13 (11-7 OVC)
Good Wins:  Morgan State
Last Year RPI:  164
Starters Lost:  2
NOTES:  They play Western, so might as well play Eastern, right?  I don't know.  A middling Ohio Valley team?  They're more likely to be a 200+ in RPI than a sub-100, so I don't really like this.  Should be an easy win though, so I guess they got that going for them.  Since there aren't enough of those already.

Dec 15 vs. Akron
Record:  24-11 (12-4 MAC), lost in first round of CBI to Green Bay
Good Wins:  Niagara
Last Year RPI:  95
Starters Lost:  3
NOTES:  My first reaction was "Akron?  Cool.  They've been a bubble team recently."  And then I realized that the days of Dru Joyce and Romeo Travis were actually five years or so ago, so they really aren't a dangerous team anymore (especially with losing their two best players to graduation).  I mean, Akron always seems to be a nice team, and I don't hate them being on the schedule at all since they'll probably just be a low 100 RPI, but meh.  Although maybe Lebron will show up.  Did I tell you I'm a huge Miami Heat fan now?


So really, there's no reason the Gophers shouldn't be, at a minimum, 9-2 heading into Big Ten play.  8-3 would be bad but not a disaster, but if they go in any worse than that the season is basically already done.  I don't think anybody realistically thinks they'll be more than a couple few games over .500 in Big Ten play, so a 7-4 non-conf record with that many cupcakes would make an NCAA bid a very tough road.

And it's really not that there are a ton of low-end games.  At most they'll probably end up with two teams with sub-200 RPIs, but it's the lack of high-end games that is so disappointing.  If everything breaks perfectly in the Puerto Rico Tip-Off they will end up having all of two marquee non-conference games - neither at home.  Didn't you think we'd be seeing better in Tubby:  Year IV?  I did.  Yeah, he's better than Monson (and thank god they didn't hire Molinari) and yes, we're seeing a better product and yes, they have indeed made the NCAA tournament two years in a row, so maybe it's my fault for wanting more.

Is it my fault?  Am I alone here?

Minnesota 88, NDSU 56

Eat it Bison.

I actually feel a little embarrassed that I was worried about this team. I guess the crappy Gopher football team has me conditioned to be worried about NDSU automatically. In this case, there was no need. NDSU wasn't much different than Riverside, and Winkelman and Woodside were like any other pair of decent players on a bad team - they score because they have to. Woodside was blanketed pretty well by Nolen whenever he was in there, with Nolen even taking it right from him when he was bringing it up the court at one point. He was a slow, good shooting white kid. Basically the kind of guy I would have loved a few years ago, but have been cured and recognize that he really isn't very good. And Winkelman was pretty much completely unnoticeable. Yet, because nobody else can score on that team, they still ended up with 16 and 17 points, many of which in garbage time.

On the Gopher side, Al Nolen continues to impress. He knocked down 3 of 4 threes he attempted, had five steals, played great defense, and ran the offense well. I was always nervous for next season, wondering who would play point if Nolen didn't work out. Now, granted we haven't seen him play in the Big Ten yet, and he did struggle against FSU (so did everyone), but I'm officially not worried about PG next season anymore - except for the backup.

Kevin Payton should really just transfer and make everybody happy, himself included. He looks lost most of the time when he's on the court, and he has zero semblance of an offensive game whatsoever. I don't know what's wrong with him, he averaged 22 per game in high school with a high of 51, but he should probably go ahead and try to figure it out at UM-Kansas City or something, not in the Big Ten.

Lawrence Westbrook, or $LDUB, played only fifteen minutes but scored 11 on 5-7 shooting. I'm starting to get a crush on him.

Danny Coleman scored 15 points, had 8 rebounds, and 4 assists. Sounds like a pretty good line, and if you hadn't watched the game, you'd be pretty impressed. Don't be. Coleman hasn't developed at all. Against this team, he should have completely controlled the game, and he most certainly didn't. He floats around, looks lost half the time, and just seems kind of out of it. If the Gophers are going to do any damage in the Big Ten at all, Coleman really needs to step it up, good stat lines only go so far.

McKenzie had 11, played a pretty solid overall game, Tollackson had 8 with four rebounds and four fouls - the fact that he couldn't stay out of foul trouble against NDSU is very worrisome. Also, there's hustle, and then there's stupid hustle. Tollackson at one point tried to dive to knock a pass away, missed by five feet, and the guy went in for an easy layup. Just play defense. Hoffbauer had 10, and keeps gaining confidence, which is good. He still can't play defense. Shamala got poked in the eye and for some reason the game stopped for like 20 minutes. I think it was a moment of silence for his eye. People love white people.

Also, if you sit next to me at the game please take note of a few facts:

1. The Gophers do indeed commit fouls. They also will travel, double-dribble, and lose the ball out of bounds from time to time. This is not a conspiracy, the refs are not out to screw the home town team. Yelling at the refs will not change the fact that they made the right call. My favorite is when you can't see the play at all because it's on the far end of the arena, but you're convinced "That god damn ref is just trying to screw us."

2. I'm not sure which look you're going for with that mustache, but somehow you managed to nail both 70's porn star and child molester, all in one. Bravo.

3. Stop yelling "pass the ball" constantly. I actually agree that in a motion offense, the ball should keep moving most of the time. However, when it gets dumped down low, or they call an isolation play, or someone gets the ball with a mismatch, they can take some time and make a play on their own. This is called "offense."

4. You suck and I hate you.

Gophers vs. NDSU

As much as I hate to push Snake's UND rant down the page, there's no way I couldn't give a little preview to the big Gopher/Bison tilt going on later tonight. Plus, I'm actually going to be watching the game sober (probably) so that's a big thumbs up.

NDSU is a pesky, gritty, plucky team that really hustles and has a lot of heart. Remember what that means? That's right, they suck.

Now, that being said, this is not an automatic win. NDSU has the one thing that can neutralize a better team's advantage in a hurry, and that's three point shooting. Guards Ben Woodside and Mike Nelson both average 3 made three pointers per game, and both shoot around 50% from three. If either or both get hot, it could lead to trouble. The Gophers of the past were notoriously bad when it came to defending the three, and by the past I mean last year. They seem to be much better this year, and I'm going to make the extremely controversial statement that Tubby Smith is a better coach than Dan Monson, so they should do a better job containing the guards.

The other worry besides those two is forward Brett Winkelman. Winkelman is averaging 20.9 points per game, second on the team to Woodside's 26.4. Impressive numbers, but keep in mind that five of their seven opponents have been UW-Green Bay, Minot State, Tennesse Tech, NC Central, and Mayville State. Sounds like a Gopher football non-conference schedule. There scoring dips to 17 and 20 against their two real opponents, Florida and Rutgers. Still good, but not quite as gaudy as it looks at first glance.

The Gophers shouldn't have a problem with NDSU. And with Tubby at the helm instead of Monson, I don't have all that much of a concern. Contain Winkelman, Woodside, and Nelson and you don't have to worry. Those three are pretty much the entire team, and score 70% of the Bison's points, a number that would be even higher if not for all the garbage time the scrubs get playing that terrifying schedule above. Whatever happens, they can't let NDSU stick around until the end of the game, and need to blow them out early. If NDSU is close towards the end, Woodside scares the crap out of me.

Gophers 74, Bison 62

Arkansas St +9.5 @ Northwestern
Missouri St +9.5 @ Arkansas
E Tenn St +25 @ Indiana
Wofford +23.5 @ Wisconsin

Yesterday: 3-2
Season: 72-65