Hey the Preseason Top 25 polls just came out. You know what that means, time to write about how bad all these teams suck. I'm taking a look at the AP poll instead of the Coaches poll because I chose it at random. Spoiler alert: The Gophers aren't in here.
1. NORTH CAROLINA. They only lose J.P. Tokoto who entered the NBA Draft for some reason but that's fine because I think he mostly made people mad at his shooting. Marcus Paige is back and he's really good when he's not being terrible. They had zero outside shooting other than him last year, and unless one of the freshman can shoot (one supposedly can) or somebody else learned how to hit a 3-pointer in the offseason this is not the best team in basketball. Also I just read Paige is out for 3-4 weeks with an injury so maybe that will lead to somebody else being good. SPOILER: nope.
2. KENTUCKY. Hell I don't know.
3. MARYLAND. It's hard to wrap my head around Maryland being this high, but I can't argue with it. They were a 4 seed in the tournament last year and even though they didn't make it out of the weekend they were still a solid team. Melo Trimble came back and might be the best player in the conference, they added two big time transfers, and got a late commitment from Diamond Stone who is supposed to be awesome despite the ridiculous name and fills their only real hole. Still, three seems really freaking high.
4. KANSAS. Want to hear something that will blow your mind? Perry Ellis is back for another year. Even so, these guys are my pick for title winner. Ellis sucks but he's not completely useless, and even if he is Kansas has everybody back (except Kelly Oubre who was meh anyway) and they're adding two McDonald's All Americans who are both forwards. This team is deep as all hell, all they need is someone to make the leap. With so many above average players in both ability and pedigree you'd think somebody's going to do it, and if two or more do these guys will be really, really good. Bet on them. Do it. Go do it. They're like 10-1. Do it.
5. DUKE. Uh, you guys know they lost Tyus, Okafor, and Justice Winslow, right? This is all because Grayson Allen, who makes J.J. Redick look downright lovable, had that good stretch in the National Championship game, isn't it? Does he really seem like the kind of player who can carry a team for a while season. NOT BLOODY LIKELY. Good luck with him and one million freshmen. Oh, right, they got a transfer from Rice coming in too. Yes, Rice. The college. If you read any preview of Duke this year they call out a transfer from Rice as a huge positive. I am currently making a dismissive wanking motion.
6. VIRGINIA. Hoops nerds like to tell you that if you think Virginia basketball is boring, you don't really understand basketball. Well I understand basketball and I know what the pack line defense is and all that and I'm telling you - Virginia basketball is freaking boring as all hell. And basically the whole team is back again to be boring and annoying and get handjobs from announcers. Ugh. Stop already.
7. IOWA STATE. If you asked me to guess where Iowa State was rated I would have said like I don't know, maybe mid-20s or something so this is a bit of a surprise. But I guess Georges Niang is back which seems impossible and possibly illegal, and, you're not going to believe this, but the Cyclones get a couple of big deal transfers from other programs. Add that to almost the whole team being back and I guess I see why they're this high. They should be really fun and pretty good until one of their players gets suspended.
8. OKLAHOMA. The opposite of Virginia, these guys are fun as hell to watch and since Buddy Hield, who is basically a lock to lead the Big 12 in scoring, is back they probably will be again. They also ranked 8th in defensive points per possession, so it is actually possible to play fast, fun, and good defense all at the same time. Take notes, Cavaliers. Also, this is way too high for these guys.
9. GONZAGA. Lots of people say stuff like man Gonzaga is overrated, they stomp the WCC, get all this Final Four type buzz, and then flame out. Last year they finally made the Elite 8, which is definitely an accomplishment, but also just the second time they've gotten that far, the last coming in 1999. So I don't know that they've proved that they're anything more than a small conference bully. They've got a rock solid front court, but lose their entire back court so things could be rough early. This section was extremely boring.
10. WICHITA STATE. They have Ron Baker and Fred VanVleet back. That right there is enough to win the Missouri Valley. No really, you take those two and Greg Marshall and you could roll out of their with three toddlers and the Shockers would roll. Unfortunately it is both unsafe and illegal to play with toddlers so Wichita State will use real players to complement those two. I don't really feel like looking up who any of those players are, but since Wichita has been good for so long at this point I'm guessing they're probably pretty good.
11. VILLANOVA. God that sucked when these guys got bounced last year, and not just because they were my non-Kentucky pick to win. They were so freaking good. Then a dopey NC State team knocks them off. I suppose I shouldn't be surprised, that's kind of Villanova's thing. Also their thing: guards. And they have a bunch of them again. So expect the Wildcats to shoot a ton of three pointers, own the Big East, grab a high seed, and flame out early. It's what they do. Lesson learned.
12. ARIZONA. Stanley Johnson, T.J. McConnell, Rondae Hollis-Jefferson, and Brandon Ashley are all gone. That is a lot of people to be gone. However Arizona is Arizona, and it must be nice to be Arizona, because they get a star transfer from Boston College and picked up one hell of a recruiting class, including stealing Allonzo Trier from the Gophers. Also, they still have Kaleb Tarczewski and he is awesome and looks like he would fight you. And you would die.
13. MICHIGAN STATE. Another team with a couple of big losses which catches a break with a big time transfer, ready to step right in. For Sparty it's Eron Harris who only scored over 17 points per game in his last season at West Virginia, no big whoop. I'm really fascinated by Lourawls Nairn (remember him?) here. He only took 8.5% of the team's shots when he was on the floor. The lowest Gopher with any real minutes played was Bakary Konate at 11.1%, which is actually way higher than Nairn. I only found two other Big Ten players under 10% last year (Jaylon Tate of Illinois and Jeremiah Kreisberg of Northwestern) but both played far fewer minutes than Nairn. So like, is that his thing? What does he do if nobody guards him? He's the anti-chucker, which in a way, is as fun as a real chucker. I love watching how teams guard Rajon Rondo - they don't. I hope that's what happens with Nairn.
14. CAL. This team could be like whoa. I bet them at 60-1 to win the whole thing this summer, and I still like them now down all the way at 20-1. They have a ton back from last year's team, not a great year, admittedly, and add two Top 10 recruits. Yes, that's TWO top 10 recruits. If the name on the jersey was Duke instead of Cal this would be a Top 5 team. Plus, I like Cuonzo Martin as a coach. This is my favorite sleeper this year.
15. INDIANA. Oh come on! Do we not play defense any more in basketball, because if this is offense only I would say the Hoosiers are too low, but overall? No chance. It's the same team. The only difference is they got some stud recruit center, but can one player suddenly take a swiss cheese defense and make it good? Or even passable? No. Maybe Antoine Broxsie back in the day, but nobody can make Yogi Ferrell look good on defense. Should score a lot of points though. Gopher/Hoosier games should be in the 160s.
16. UTAH. I know they have at least one, and maybe two, big giant tall guys, and that's generally a good start when it comes to basketsball. Ok I decided to check and they only have one, but he's really good you guys! His name is Jakob Poetl and he's a possible lottery pick who held Jahlil Okafor to 6 points and 4 turnovers in March. He can score, rebound, and block shots and now that Delon Wright is gone he should be the offenses focal point. Should be fun. No idea about all these other guys.
17. WISCONSIN. Oh come on! You're kidding me. Look, I love Nigel Hayes, I love him as much as I could ever love a Badger. I think he's most likely a more skilled Noah Vonleh and I loved Noah Vonleh and thanked Jehova every day that Tom Crean was such a terrible coach. But the Badgers are basically Hayes, Bronson Koenig who is whatever fine, and then nobody else. I know people say it's stupid to bet against the Badgers and Bo Ryan, but people like blood sausage too. People are morons. Badgers suck this year.
18. VANDERBILT. Here's another team I like, although I can also see them sucking. On paper it looks good - a potential lottery pick at center (Damian Jones) surrounded by shooters (Riley Lachance (remember him) and Wade Baldwin (him too) among others, and a team that really gelled as the season went on with most of the team back. Vandy started out 1-7 in SEC play, but closed out 8-2 and looked really good, so yeah, on paper this looks good. In reality, it's Vanderbilt so ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
19. NOTRE DAME. Jerian Grant is gone, which is a fairly huge deal considering the game plan was generally "hey Jerian, go do everything for us." The back-up for that was, hey Pat Connaughton, you go do stuff instead but oops, he gone. Zach Auguste is a super stud, I'll give you that, and he's probably going to be better than Noah Vonleh, but somebody has to get him the ball. In summation, these guys suck.
20. UCONN. They have Amida Brimah who I love because he blocks like, every shot ever taken, and their transfer train is rolling, picking up Sterling Gibbs (who is kind of a dick) from Seton Hall to go with Rodney Purvis whom they stole from NC State last year or maybe the year before. Actually looking at this roster I've heard of like, everybody which seems goodish. How the hell is Omar Calhoun still in college basketball? That's insane. Also, I probably watch too much basketball.
21. LSU. One of my favorite sleepers this year. Tons of guard play back and they're bringing in the #1 recruit in the country and another big deal new guy too who just got eligible. As far as negatives go, I have a short list of what I call "dumb teams to never ever bet on" who are always dumb and do stupid stuff and lose when they shouldn't because they are dumb every year no matter what. LSU is on that list.
22. BAYLOR. Baylor still? I figured they'd drop off the face of the map with recruiting violations or something by now, but here we are. The front court has a monster in Rico Gathers who is basically a bigger Montrezl Harrell (yes bigger) without the jump shot, but their entire back court is gone. Oh what's that? A really young back court coached by Scott Drew? I smell some early season anti-Baylor wagers.
23. PURDUE. Another team I like, mainly because facing them is like going against a bunch of gigantic monsters from a Goosebumps book. A.J. Hammons is seven feet tall, 261 lbs., Isaac Haas is 7-2, 297 lbs., and incoming freshman Caleb Swanigan is 6-9, 260 lbs.. It would be pretty sweet if they figured out a way to play all three at the same time. I mean, it wouldn't make a lick of sense, but it would be pretty sweet. Anyway, Purdue plays pretty good defense, and it's probably going to be even better next season. They also can't shoot at all. So there are going to be some ugly, ugly games.
24. BUTLER. I tried to write about Butler like 4 times. That's probably enough.
25. MICHIGAN. Michigan loses nobody from last year's team, and that's good even though last year's team missed the tournament. That was more because Caris LeVert and Derrick Walton played only 37 combined games than Michigan being an actually crappy team, because I am learning John Beilein is a wizard who doesn't make crappy teams. They're still basically lacking any kind of skilled or capable big man and Zak Irvin is kind of wild out there, but this should be a pretty good team. Probably better than this ranking. Man, if Purdue could trade one of their big dudes for a shooter from Michigan, that would be pretty sweet. College sports needs trading, would be so awesome. Not like they care about the kids anyway, which is ok because neither do I. PLAY GAMES FOR MY AMUSEMENT!!!
Showing posts with label Virginia. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Virginia. Show all posts
Thursday, November 5, 2015
Tuesday, March 10, 2015
Tuesday's Tourney - The Grandest of them All.
Three more teams grabbed bids last night: Wofford, Manhattan, and Northeastern. Wofford was the #1 seed and will probably end up somewhere around that 12th seed spot with a legit chance at an upset, depending on the matchup. Northeastern was a top team in their conference but is most likely going to have to face a #2 seed, and the #2s are very strong this year. Manhattan cost us Iona.
See, both Manhattan and Iona are super fun teams that like to play circus ball, which means entertainment so on some level we should be happy with either of them. However, Iona probably would have been like a 14 seed or so, and would have ended up playing someone at least somewhat vulnerable like a Maryland or an Oklahoma (and Iona/Oklahoma would be super fun). Manhattan, on the other hand, will most likely, unless lots of conference tournaments go sideways, end up in the First Four, so even if they get passed someone like Texas Southern they'll end up playing a one seed, who will probably stomp a hole in them. Once again, Conference Tournaments are super fun but are also the worst.
Only one tournament gets going today;
ATLANTIC COAST CONFERENCE:
Conference realignment has torn the Big East apart and strengthened the ACC, no doubt. That makes it easy to mourn the Big East Tournament, but I kinda miss the old ACC Tournament as well. Growing up the Big Ten didn't have a tournament, the ACC was on TV all the time, the programs were really good, and their style of play was a blast so I fell in love with the ACC Tournament. That super cool court in Greensboro, Randolph Childress destroying everybody, Fire and Ice, and some serious Duke vs. Maryland battles. It makes me feel like some cranky old man, but I really wish the ACC was the same (and the Big East). But I now I'm not a cranky old man, because I like lots of other changes. Not like my friend The Bear. He hates everything that ever changes.
FAVORITE: Virginia. I keep doubting the Cavaliers (well, for the last two years when they've been good) and they keep proving me wrong. A 28-2 record is no joke, especially going through the ACC where they only lost in close games to Duke and Louisville, both of whom will likely be top 5 seeds in the NCAA Tournament. The loss of Justin Anderson has them extra vulnerable since he was their one ace shooter and more of the offense will fall to Malcolm Brogdon, but this team does it with defense anyway, so they should be fine. That defense is amazing.
SLEEPER:Syracuse. They can't go to the NCAA Tournament anyway so their motivation might be suspect, and the whole NCAA hammering them thing may make them even more ready to crawl under a rock and be done with this season, but it also could do that thing where it makes a team band together and try harder or whatever they always show us in movies. They still play great defense, and though the offense has been challenged at best this year what if Trevor Cooney decides "hey you know what? I'm going to mix it up and actually make a bunch of shots now."? It could happen. Probably not. North Carolina State.
THE PICK: Duke. Duke is rolling. After some early conference jitters where they went 3-3 for a stretch, the Blue Devils have rolled off eleven straight included a sweep of the Tar Heels, a 30-point stomping of Notre Dame, and a road win at Virginia - that's impressive. Jahlil Okafor may have hit a bit of a freshman wall but he's still a beast to deal with, Tyus Jones (sorry) has simply been amazing running that team, and Quinn Cook has transformed himself from offensive afterthought to big time scorer. They're ready to run the ACC table here. And they're still perfectly flawed enough to be upset early in the NCAA Tournament. Win/win.
One billion conference tournaments start tomorrow. I better get started.
See, both Manhattan and Iona are super fun teams that like to play circus ball, which means entertainment so on some level we should be happy with either of them. However, Iona probably would have been like a 14 seed or so, and would have ended up playing someone at least somewhat vulnerable like a Maryland or an Oklahoma (and Iona/Oklahoma would be super fun). Manhattan, on the other hand, will most likely, unless lots of conference tournaments go sideways, end up in the First Four, so even if they get passed someone like Texas Southern they'll end up playing a one seed, who will probably stomp a hole in them. Once again, Conference Tournaments are super fun but are also the worst.
Only one tournament gets going today;
ATLANTIC COAST CONFERENCE:
Conference realignment has torn the Big East apart and strengthened the ACC, no doubt. That makes it easy to mourn the Big East Tournament, but I kinda miss the old ACC Tournament as well. Growing up the Big Ten didn't have a tournament, the ACC was on TV all the time, the programs were really good, and their style of play was a blast so I fell in love with the ACC Tournament. That super cool court in Greensboro, Randolph Childress destroying everybody, Fire and Ice, and some serious Duke vs. Maryland battles. It makes me feel like some cranky old man, but I really wish the ACC was the same (and the Big East). But I now I'm not a cranky old man, because I like lots of other changes. Not like my friend The Bear. He hates everything that ever changes.
FAVORITE: Virginia. I keep doubting the Cavaliers (well, for the last two years when they've been good) and they keep proving me wrong. A 28-2 record is no joke, especially going through the ACC where they only lost in close games to Duke and Louisville, both of whom will likely be top 5 seeds in the NCAA Tournament. The loss of Justin Anderson has them extra vulnerable since he was their one ace shooter and more of the offense will fall to Malcolm Brogdon, but this team does it with defense anyway, so they should be fine. That defense is amazing.
SLEEPER:
THE PICK: Duke. Duke is rolling. After some early conference jitters where they went 3-3 for a stretch, the Blue Devils have rolled off eleven straight included a sweep of the Tar Heels, a 30-point stomping of Notre Dame, and a road win at Virginia - that's impressive. Jahlil Okafor may have hit a bit of a freshman wall but he's still a beast to deal with, Tyus Jones (sorry) has simply been amazing running that team, and Quinn Cook has transformed himself from offensive afterthought to big time scorer. They're ready to run the ACC table here. And they're still perfectly flawed enough to be upset early in the NCAA Tournament. Win/win.
One billion conference tournaments start tomorrow. I better get started.
Friday, March 28, 2014
Sweet Sixteen Predictions (Friday)
Well I couldn't have read that Wisconsin/Baylor game any worse. I expected Frank Kaminsky to get killed, but instead he did the killing. It was like watching The Others and being like, man this is way creepy poor Nicole Kidman but then bam it turns out Nicole Kidman is dead the whole time. Oh, spoiler alert. Anyway thanks to Florida coming through, a couple over/unders, and hitting two middles with second half bets I overcame the big Baylor loss and made a little bit of money. Hopefully there's more to come tonight.
#11 Tennessee vs. #2 Michigan.
Advanced metrics absolutely love Tennessee. They rank 16th in offensive points per possession and 17th in defensive points per possession. The only other teams to rank in the top 20 in both this year are Wichita State, Florida, Virginia, and Louisville. That's a pretty damn impressive group. However I think this is a classic case of beating up on bad teams. The Vols have a win over Virginia back in December, but do you know their next best win? That win over a fading Iowa team. Next up? A win over a fading and overseeded UMass. Then Georgia, LSU, and Arkansas. See what I'm saying? Yeah they've won three games to get here and that's impressive, but I am not loving them.
Michigan, on the other hand, seems to be peaking at the right time. They destroyed both Wofford and Texas and everybody's clicking. Tennessee has overwhelmed their opponents with their size and rebounding so far, but that won't happen against Michigan. Jordan Morgan and Jon Horford might suck offensively but they can play defense. From there I think Michigan's perimeter guys can out score Tennessee's. I just think Michigan is a far superior team, so I'm going with Michigan -2 for four units
#7 UCONN vs. #3 Iowa State.
The loss of Georges Niang didn't hurt Iowa State against North Carolina, but it very well could against UCONN. Without him the Cyclones are very small, and although Melvin Ejim and Dustin Hogue play bigger than their size would suggest I'm not so sure that gets it done against a more rough and tumble former Big East team. It will also allow UCONN to go small with what is probably their best lineup, and one they have only been able to use about 5% of the time over the last 5 games because they generally need to have either Amida Brimah or Phillip Nolan in there at center for extra size. That's not really a concern against a Niang-less Iowa State, and Brimah's foul issues become much less important.
Then of course there's the whole Kemba Walker thing Shabazz Napier has going on right now. He's put up 24-8-6 against St. Joe's and 25-5-3 against Villanova despite missing a huge chunk of the first half. And man did you see some of those shots against Nova? Right now he's fearless and he's hot, and that is a dangerous combination to run up against. DeAndre Daniels seems to be peaking at the right time, and Ryan Boatright played as well as I've ever seen him play against Villanova. It wouldn't shock me to see this team make the Final Four. Sorry Clones. UCONN +2 for 3 units, and also a unit on the over 146 - ISU likes to get up and down, and I expect UCONN to get in the spirit.
#8 Kentucky vs. #4 Louisville.
Easily my most anticipated match-up of the weekend, and also the hardest to read for me. Before the tournament started I would have gone with Louisville -4.5 without hesitation, but Kentucky's win over Wichita was one of the most impressive top to bottom games I've seen anybody play this year. Everyone said at the beginning of the year that Kentucky was the most talented team in the country and if their talent came together they'd be the team to beat in the tournament, and that is still the case with at least five guys who are likely to be NBA first round picks in either this year's draft or the next. So that's the question, has this team now come together enough to beat the defending champs who, with the exception of the Manhattan game, have been rolling?
Well, it was just the sixth time this year a team scored 70+ against Wichita, and Kentucky shot 54% while doing it so they played pretty much a perfect shooting game on the offensive end. With Andrew Harrison's six turnovers and a total of 11 for the Wildcats vs. just 11 assists that tells me they didn't suddenly "get it" and considering six of those assists came from Julius Randle it's pretty clear the Kentucky guards still don't really know how to run a team. Another big piece of Kentucky's win was their 22 offensive rebounds, but the presence of Montrezl Harrell for Louisville should guarantee that at a minimum that number is cut in half, and the rest of Louisville's guys should be able to keep Kentucky off the boards better than Wichita did. Plus when it comes down to Calipari vs. Pitino with almost a week to prepare, I'll take Pitino every time. Louisville -4.5 for one unit and another unit on the over 139. Louisville tries to speed teams up and that should work beautifully against Kentucky.
#4 Michigan State vs. #1 Virginia.
People really seem to underrate Virginia this year, but a 16-2 run through the ACC, an ACC Tournament Championship, and a thorough thrashing of Memphis (with a mini scare against Coastal thrown in there) is one hell of a run. They've mainly done it with an incredible defense and a slow pace that left them allowing the fewest points per game in the country at 55.5. They also score at an efficient rate, a top 10 in the country rate, although they don't shoot the ball particularly well and can be prone to shooting slumps.
The Spartans should be able to handle them, however, because they're one of the best shooting teams in the country (13th by eFG%) and the execute extremely well and move the ball well (62% of baskets come from an assist, also 13th). I tried to find teams that have a similar profile that Virginia played this year and the closest two I could find were Duke and Wisconsin, team's that gave Virginia two of its six losses this year, and Michigan State is both a better rebounding and defensive team than either Duke or Virginia. Plus the Spartans put up those impressive numbers while rarely being healthy, and now they are. The pace shouldn't bother Sparty either, they can grind it out with the best of them. One unit on Michigan State -2, and two units on the under 127.
#11 Tennessee vs. #2 Michigan.
Advanced metrics absolutely love Tennessee. They rank 16th in offensive points per possession and 17th in defensive points per possession. The only other teams to rank in the top 20 in both this year are Wichita State, Florida, Virginia, and Louisville. That's a pretty damn impressive group. However I think this is a classic case of beating up on bad teams. The Vols have a win over Virginia back in December, but do you know their next best win? That win over a fading Iowa team. Next up? A win over a fading and overseeded UMass. Then Georgia, LSU, and Arkansas. See what I'm saying? Yeah they've won three games to get here and that's impressive, but I am not loving them.
Michigan, on the other hand, seems to be peaking at the right time. They destroyed both Wofford and Texas and everybody's clicking. Tennessee has overwhelmed their opponents with their size and rebounding so far, but that won't happen against Michigan. Jordan Morgan and Jon Horford might suck offensively but they can play defense. From there I think Michigan's perimeter guys can out score Tennessee's. I just think Michigan is a far superior team, so I'm going with Michigan -2 for four units
#7 UCONN vs. #3 Iowa State.
The loss of Georges Niang didn't hurt Iowa State against North Carolina, but it very well could against UCONN. Without him the Cyclones are very small, and although Melvin Ejim and Dustin Hogue play bigger than their size would suggest I'm not so sure that gets it done against a more rough and tumble former Big East team. It will also allow UCONN to go small with what is probably their best lineup, and one they have only been able to use about 5% of the time over the last 5 games because they generally need to have either Amida Brimah or Phillip Nolan in there at center for extra size. That's not really a concern against a Niang-less Iowa State, and Brimah's foul issues become much less important.
Then of course there's the whole Kemba Walker thing Shabazz Napier has going on right now. He's put up 24-8-6 against St. Joe's and 25-5-3 against Villanova despite missing a huge chunk of the first half. And man did you see some of those shots against Nova? Right now he's fearless and he's hot, and that is a dangerous combination to run up against. DeAndre Daniels seems to be peaking at the right time, and Ryan Boatright played as well as I've ever seen him play against Villanova. It wouldn't shock me to see this team make the Final Four. Sorry Clones. UCONN +2 for 3 units, and also a unit on the over 146 - ISU likes to get up and down, and I expect UCONN to get in the spirit.
#8 Kentucky vs. #4 Louisville.
Easily my most anticipated match-up of the weekend, and also the hardest to read for me. Before the tournament started I would have gone with Louisville -4.5 without hesitation, but Kentucky's win over Wichita was one of the most impressive top to bottom games I've seen anybody play this year. Everyone said at the beginning of the year that Kentucky was the most talented team in the country and if their talent came together they'd be the team to beat in the tournament, and that is still the case with at least five guys who are likely to be NBA first round picks in either this year's draft or the next. So that's the question, has this team now come together enough to beat the defending champs who, with the exception of the Manhattan game, have been rolling?
Well, it was just the sixth time this year a team scored 70+ against Wichita, and Kentucky shot 54% while doing it so they played pretty much a perfect shooting game on the offensive end. With Andrew Harrison's six turnovers and a total of 11 for the Wildcats vs. just 11 assists that tells me they didn't suddenly "get it" and considering six of those assists came from Julius Randle it's pretty clear the Kentucky guards still don't really know how to run a team. Another big piece of Kentucky's win was their 22 offensive rebounds, but the presence of Montrezl Harrell for Louisville should guarantee that at a minimum that number is cut in half, and the rest of Louisville's guys should be able to keep Kentucky off the boards better than Wichita did. Plus when it comes down to Calipari vs. Pitino with almost a week to prepare, I'll take Pitino every time. Louisville -4.5 for one unit and another unit on the over 139. Louisville tries to speed teams up and that should work beautifully against Kentucky.
#4 Michigan State vs. #1 Virginia.
People really seem to underrate Virginia this year, but a 16-2 run through the ACC, an ACC Tournament Championship, and a thorough thrashing of Memphis (with a mini scare against Coastal thrown in there) is one hell of a run. They've mainly done it with an incredible defense and a slow pace that left them allowing the fewest points per game in the country at 55.5. They also score at an efficient rate, a top 10 in the country rate, although they don't shoot the ball particularly well and can be prone to shooting slumps.
The Spartans should be able to handle them, however, because they're one of the best shooting teams in the country (13th by eFG%) and the execute extremely well and move the ball well (62% of baskets come from an assist, also 13th). I tried to find teams that have a similar profile that Virginia played this year and the closest two I could find were Duke and Wisconsin, team's that gave Virginia two of its six losses this year, and Michigan State is both a better rebounding and defensive team than either Duke or Virginia. Plus the Spartans put up those impressive numbers while rarely being healthy, and now they are. The pace shouldn't bother Sparty either, they can grind it out with the best of them. One unit on Michigan State -2, and two units on the under 127.
Wednesday, March 13, 2013
And we're Spent
I was going to write about everything that happened today, but I write the previews and stuff first and then go back and write the introduction and I'm really quite tired and I don't think that's something that I'm going to do.
ATLANTIC COAST CONFERENCEI still have fond memories of watching the ACC Tournament every March (on TV of course). Those were the days of Randolph Childress and Dennis Scott and Curtis Staples when every ACC team, top-to-bottom, was awesome and the conference was head and shoulders above everyone else. They're still a quality conference (kenpom ranks them 4th) but that's because they're strong at the top. The bottom of the ACC is horrible, which makes the tournament much less fun since you can probably pencil in the top seeds to the semi-finals. Except Duke. Eff them.
FAVORITE: Duke. Of course it's Duke. With Ryan Kelly back Duke is one of the top five teams in the country no matter how much you hate them (and you should). It's easy to forget, but this team is 18-0 this year when Kelly is healthy (and 9-4 without him) with wins over Ohio State, Louisville, and Miami - all Final Four contenders. Kelly kind of sucks at everything other than shooting but there's no doubt Duke is a much better team with him than without him. Also did you know every single Duke basketball fan also roots for the Lakers, Cowboys, Yankees, and Notre Dame football? It's science.
SLEEPER: Virginia. The Cavaliers probably need to do something here to secure at at-large bid, because despite their huge wins (Duke, NC State, Wisconsin) they've balanced them with some horrendous losses (George Mason, Delaware, and 5-25 Old Dominion) and an 11-7 conference record. They're a bit of a Wisconsin clone with their style of play (BORING) but it can work, obviously, and they've beaten every other ACC Contender so far this year other than Miami, so they can certainly win this.
W's PICK: Duke. This is what Duke does. They have a great regular season, win the ACC Tournament, and then lose in one of the first two rounds of the NCAA Tournament. And I love it every year.
ATLANTIC 10 CONFERENCE
Honestly I couldn't even tell you who is in the A-10 anymore. And even if I could, it wouldn't matter because teams are leaving next year anyway. And did you know there are actually 16 teams in the Atlantic-10? So the Big 10 has 12 and is about to have 14, the Big 12 has 10 teams, and the Atlantic 10 has 16. Gotta say, I think the whole idea of naming your conference after the number of teams is looking like a pretty crappy idea. Hell at this point we can't even name them on their geographical region any more. We're going to have to start naming conferences after things pretty soon, like the Lamp Conference.
FAVORITE: St. Louis. The Billikens are streaking. They won 12 of their last 13 (with the loss being in overtime @ Xavier) with those wins including a win over VCU and a sweep of Butler, but even so they're sneaking up on everybody. You watch, they're going to be anywhere from a 3-6 seed when the pairings come out and I'm betting nearly everybody will have them getting knock-off the first weekend. They're a great defensive basketball team who spreads their scoring around with five guys averaging between 9.8 and 12.9 points per game- don't underrate them.
SLEEPER: Xavier. A rare down year for the Musketeers sees them tied for sixth in the A-10 with seven conference losses, but in a pretty wide open conference there are plenty of teams who could get hot and win the auto-bid. Not only did Xavier just beat St. Louis in the second-to-last game of the season, they also beat Memphis a couple of weeks ago.
W's PICK: VCU. I can't help it, I love VCU. They play the game like a bunch of crazy lunatics and, in the tradition of the old UNLV and Arkansas teams, it works. They're a bit under the radar nationally this year since they have seven losses, but those seven are Duke and Missouri in the Bahamas, @ Richmond, LaSalle, @ St. Louis, and @ Temple. That's a pretty good list. It serves to give them a worse seeding, which will make them a genius pick to make the Final Four, although with all their recent success I'm sure plenty of others will feel the same so maybe the real genius pick will be to take them to lose in round one.
BIG WEST CONFERENCE
Big West teams always seem to grab a nice upset or two each year. This year Cal Poly beat UCLA, Pacific beat Xavier and St. Mary's, and UC-Irvine beat USC. The Big West lacks the big-time sleeper NCAA Tournament threat like they had the last couple of years with Santa Barbara and Long Beach, but there are a number of teams here who could get a victory if they get the right match-up.
FAVORITE: Long Beach. Say what you want about Dan Monson, and I have, but he knows how to build a program to dominate a terrible conference. The 49ers are once again the #1 seed in the Big West, and even though they aren't as dangerous a team as they were last season they'll probably win this tournament. Although things may be unraveling at the end of the season here a bit with LBSU losing three of their last four games.
SLEEPER: UC-Irvine. The Anteaters were horrendous at the beginning of the year, starting out at 5-7 with ugly losses to Pepperdine and Sam Houston, but buttoned it up to close out the season, finishing out with a 10-5 swing which included wins over Long Beach, Pacific, and Cal-Poly - the top three Big West teams. Plus they're the Anteaters - that's pretty sweet.
W's PICK: Irvine. There's nobody here who looks like they could run away with this thing, and with the Anteaters coming into the tournament as the hottest team I may as well pick them. Plus they're Anteaters.
BIG SKY CONFERENCE
The Big Sky has always been one of my favorite conferences, mainly because my wife and her entire family attended school there (for at least a semester) and I've been on their campus a bunch of times and have some hats and shirts and such and since they're the dominant program they're always relevant, at least for a low-major. And this is a low major, at least this year. Weber (24-5) and Montana (23-6) took care of business, but there isn't a single other school in the conference that finished better than .500.
FAVORITE: Weber State. Technically Montana is actually the #1 seed but they lost their leading scorer to a foot injury and although they've gone 4-1 without him (the loss was in overtime to Davidson) Weber State is probably the better team now. The Wildcats have won eleven straight, including a 14-point victory over Montana and really they haven't missed Damian Lillard much at all this season thanks to three double-digit per game scorers and the nation's #1 three-point shooting team at 42%.
SLEEPER: Montana State. Weber and Montana are much better than the rest of the field here, but if anybody is going to crash the party it will probably be Montana State. While the majority of the conference was just getting beat up by the two top teams, the Bobcats were able to hang tough, actually beating Weber State at home and losing by just 8 on the road, and although they were swept by Montana the Grizzlies only beat them by 3 and 5 (in overtime).
W's PICK: Weber State. It feels like the Wildcats have dominated this conference, but they actually haven't been to the NCAAs since 2007 since they can't get over the hump and actually win the conference tournament. This year should be different, and hopefully Harold Arceneaux's ghost will come back and bring them to a first round upset. Also, for your education, it's pronounced WEE-BER. Don't you feel like a dummy?
BIG 12 CONFERENCE[NOTE: This apparently started Wednesday night. I had no idea]
The Big 12 is actually shockingly deep this year. With only ten teams they have six ranked in the Top 50 according to kenpom, which is awfully damn good for a conference I thought was pretty crappy. Of course, the teams in the top 50 include Baylor, who sucks, and Oklahoma, who sucks, so maybe the ratings aren't exactly accurate. Besides, games are played by real players on the court, not in your mom's basement using a computer, nerd.
FAVORITE: Kansas. The Jayhawks won the Big 12 for the ninth straight year and are the favorite once again, but unlike previous years they aren't a prohibitive favorite as the B12 is pretty wide open this year at the top. Kansas had losses to Oklahoma, Baylor, and Oklahoma State this year, should have had two losses to Iowa State, and lost to the worst team in the conference TCU. They have one of the best guards in the country in Ben McLemore, one of the best centers in the country in Jeff Withey, and very little else. KU is very vulnerable, and that goes for the NCAA Tournament as well.
SLEEPER: Iowa State. The Cyclones finished with the 5 seed and will probably be in the NCAAs as a 10 or 11, but it really should have been so much better. They lost to Kansas once on a banked in KU three-pointer and once thanks to the worst call of the season (which even B12 officials said it was a blown call), and both at Texas and Oklahoma State on last second plays. The shoot a ton of threes, make a ton of threes, and play at a fast pace - a really fun team to watch.
W's PICK: Oklahoma State. The Cowboys have gone ahead and transformed themselves into a dark horse Final Four contender. They've won 11 of their last 13, the two losses were @ Iowa State (can't fight Hilton Magic) and a double-OT loss to Kansas, and included in those eleven wins were victories over Oklahoma, Kansas, Kansas State, Baylor, and Iowa State. All you really need to know is that OK State's third best player is LeBryan Nash and he'd probably be the best player on 90% of NCAA teams (when he's engaged and paying attention, sort of has a disappearing thing going on).
BIG TEN CONFERENCE
Well here's the biggie, and I mean that not only because the stupid Gophers are in it, but because in reality I think it's hard to argue against this as the best conference in basketball. I mentioned the Big 12 having a bunch of well rated teams at kenpom, but the Big Ten has nine of their twelve ranked in the top 62 and nobody worse than #146. Add in that outside of Northwestern anybody can beat anybody else on any given day and this could really be wild. The Gophers and Michigan are fading, while Iowa and Purdue are rising which bunches the teams together even further. There are 8 teams who wouldn't shock me if they won this.
FAVORITE: Indiana. It's interesting to me that Indiana started as the big favorite in the conference, we spent the entire conference season wondering who was really number one and trying to figure out how good Indiana actually was, and now that we're done the Hoosiers come out as looking like pretty clearly the best team in the Big 10, don't they? I don't know, for my money they're clearly the top team in the conference.
SLEEPER: Illinois. If I wasn't a Minnesota fan I'd say the Gophers since they still have a really impressive list of good wins and have played well on neutral courts, but since I am a Gopher fan I know how freaking awful they've been so I refuse to support them in any way. I also think Illinois really sucks, but Iowa sucks worse, and everybody else is either too good to be a sleeper or too crappy to have a prayer. Illinois shoots so many stupid three-pointers they could conceivably get hot enough to win a couple of games, even if they don't have a chance of winning this thing. The Gophers, on the other hand, actually do have a chance to win the B10 Tournament, but I refuse to care enough to care. That's not a typo.
W's PICK: Michigan. Maybe this goes back to the old Steve Fisher days, but Michigan always strikes me as a damn good tournament type team. The Fab Five never flamed out early and made two Final Fours when they were all together, they won the first ever Big Ten Tournament, and other than last year I can't remember them ever losing early in the NCAAs. By the way, now that I look it up to try to avoid looking like an idiot, it turns out the reason I don't remember them flaming out early is because Michigan didn't make a single NCAA Tournament between 1998 and 2009. For serious. That is ridiculous.
Sorry if you were looking for more Gopher specific stuff, but I don't know what to write anymore. They're good enough to beat anybody in the Big Ten and bad enough to lose to anybody in the Big Ten. Illinois chucks a shitload of threes, and if they're making them the Gophers are screwed. If not, the Gophers have to execute their half court offense to win. Does any of that sound manageable? I just don't even know anymore. Here are my last thoughts on the Gophers. This is all I got, bro. At least until I see how they play against Illinois.
ATLANTIC COAST CONFERENCEI still have fond memories of watching the ACC Tournament every March (on TV of course). Those were the days of Randolph Childress and Dennis Scott and Curtis Staples when every ACC team, top-to-bottom, was awesome and the conference was head and shoulders above everyone else. They're still a quality conference (kenpom ranks them 4th) but that's because they're strong at the top. The bottom of the ACC is horrible, which makes the tournament much less fun since you can probably pencil in the top seeds to the semi-finals. Except Duke. Eff them.
FAVORITE: Duke. Of course it's Duke. With Ryan Kelly back Duke is one of the top five teams in the country no matter how much you hate them (and you should). It's easy to forget, but this team is 18-0 this year when Kelly is healthy (and 9-4 without him) with wins over Ohio State, Louisville, and Miami - all Final Four contenders. Kelly kind of sucks at everything other than shooting but there's no doubt Duke is a much better team with him than without him. Also did you know every single Duke basketball fan also roots for the Lakers, Cowboys, Yankees, and Notre Dame football? It's science.
SLEEPER: Virginia. The Cavaliers probably need to do something here to secure at at-large bid, because despite their huge wins (Duke, NC State, Wisconsin) they've balanced them with some horrendous losses (George Mason, Delaware, and 5-25 Old Dominion) and an 11-7 conference record. They're a bit of a Wisconsin clone with their style of play (BORING) but it can work, obviously, and they've beaten every other ACC Contender so far this year other than Miami, so they can certainly win this.
W's PICK: Duke. This is what Duke does. They have a great regular season, win the ACC Tournament, and then lose in one of the first two rounds of the NCAA Tournament. And I love it every year.
ATLANTIC 10 CONFERENCE
Honestly I couldn't even tell you who is in the A-10 anymore. And even if I could, it wouldn't matter because teams are leaving next year anyway. And did you know there are actually 16 teams in the Atlantic-10? So the Big 10 has 12 and is about to have 14, the Big 12 has 10 teams, and the Atlantic 10 has 16. Gotta say, I think the whole idea of naming your conference after the number of teams is looking like a pretty crappy idea. Hell at this point we can't even name them on their geographical region any more. We're going to have to start naming conferences after things pretty soon, like the Lamp Conference.
FAVORITE: St. Louis. The Billikens are streaking. They won 12 of their last 13 (with the loss being in overtime @ Xavier) with those wins including a win over VCU and a sweep of Butler, but even so they're sneaking up on everybody. You watch, they're going to be anywhere from a 3-6 seed when the pairings come out and I'm betting nearly everybody will have them getting knock-off the first weekend. They're a great defensive basketball team who spreads their scoring around with five guys averaging between 9.8 and 12.9 points per game- don't underrate them.
SLEEPER: Xavier. A rare down year for the Musketeers sees them tied for sixth in the A-10 with seven conference losses, but in a pretty wide open conference there are plenty of teams who could get hot and win the auto-bid. Not only did Xavier just beat St. Louis in the second-to-last game of the season, they also beat Memphis a couple of weeks ago.
W's PICK: VCU. I can't help it, I love VCU. They play the game like a bunch of crazy lunatics and, in the tradition of the old UNLV and Arkansas teams, it works. They're a bit under the radar nationally this year since they have seven losses, but those seven are Duke and Missouri in the Bahamas, @ Richmond, LaSalle, @ St. Louis, and @ Temple. That's a pretty good list. It serves to give them a worse seeding, which will make them a genius pick to make the Final Four, although with all their recent success I'm sure plenty of others will feel the same so maybe the real genius pick will be to take them to lose in round one.
BIG WEST CONFERENCE
Big West teams always seem to grab a nice upset or two each year. This year Cal Poly beat UCLA, Pacific beat Xavier and St. Mary's, and UC-Irvine beat USC. The Big West lacks the big-time sleeper NCAA Tournament threat like they had the last couple of years with Santa Barbara and Long Beach, but there are a number of teams here who could get a victory if they get the right match-up.
FAVORITE: Long Beach. Say what you want about Dan Monson, and I have, but he knows how to build a program to dominate a terrible conference. The 49ers are once again the #1 seed in the Big West, and even though they aren't as dangerous a team as they were last season they'll probably win this tournament. Although things may be unraveling at the end of the season here a bit with LBSU losing three of their last four games.
SLEEPER: UC-Irvine. The Anteaters were horrendous at the beginning of the year, starting out at 5-7 with ugly losses to Pepperdine and Sam Houston, but buttoned it up to close out the season, finishing out with a 10-5 swing which included wins over Long Beach, Pacific, and Cal-Poly - the top three Big West teams. Plus they're the Anteaters - that's pretty sweet.
W's PICK: Irvine. There's nobody here who looks like they could run away with this thing, and with the Anteaters coming into the tournament as the hottest team I may as well pick them. Plus they're Anteaters.
BIG SKY CONFERENCE
The Big Sky has always been one of my favorite conferences, mainly because my wife and her entire family attended school there (for at least a semester) and I've been on their campus a bunch of times and have some hats and shirts and such and since they're the dominant program they're always relevant, at least for a low-major. And this is a low major, at least this year. Weber (24-5) and Montana (23-6) took care of business, but there isn't a single other school in the conference that finished better than .500.
FAVORITE: Weber State. Technically Montana is actually the #1 seed but they lost their leading scorer to a foot injury and although they've gone 4-1 without him (the loss was in overtime to Davidson) Weber State is probably the better team now. The Wildcats have won eleven straight, including a 14-point victory over Montana and really they haven't missed Damian Lillard much at all this season thanks to three double-digit per game scorers and the nation's #1 three-point shooting team at 42%.
SLEEPER: Montana State. Weber and Montana are much better than the rest of the field here, but if anybody is going to crash the party it will probably be Montana State. While the majority of the conference was just getting beat up by the two top teams, the Bobcats were able to hang tough, actually beating Weber State at home and losing by just 8 on the road, and although they were swept by Montana the Grizzlies only beat them by 3 and 5 (in overtime).
W's PICK: Weber State. It feels like the Wildcats have dominated this conference, but they actually haven't been to the NCAAs since 2007 since they can't get over the hump and actually win the conference tournament. This year should be different, and hopefully Harold Arceneaux's ghost will come back and bring them to a first round upset. Also, for your education, it's pronounced WEE-BER. Don't you feel like a dummy?
BIG 12 CONFERENCE[NOTE: This apparently started Wednesday night. I had no idea]
The Big 12 is actually shockingly deep this year. With only ten teams they have six ranked in the Top 50 according to kenpom, which is awfully damn good for a conference I thought was pretty crappy. Of course, the teams in the top 50 include Baylor, who sucks, and Oklahoma, who sucks, so maybe the ratings aren't exactly accurate. Besides, games are played by real players on the court, not in your mom's basement using a computer, nerd.
FAVORITE: Kansas. The Jayhawks won the Big 12 for the ninth straight year and are the favorite once again, but unlike previous years they aren't a prohibitive favorite as the B12 is pretty wide open this year at the top. Kansas had losses to Oklahoma, Baylor, and Oklahoma State this year, should have had two losses to Iowa State, and lost to the worst team in the conference TCU. They have one of the best guards in the country in Ben McLemore, one of the best centers in the country in Jeff Withey, and very little else. KU is very vulnerable, and that goes for the NCAA Tournament as well.
SLEEPER: Iowa State. The Cyclones finished with the 5 seed and will probably be in the NCAAs as a 10 or 11, but it really should have been so much better. They lost to Kansas once on a banked in KU three-pointer and once thanks to the worst call of the season (which even B12 officials said it was a blown call), and both at Texas and Oklahoma State on last second plays. The shoot a ton of threes, make a ton of threes, and play at a fast pace - a really fun team to watch.
W's PICK: Oklahoma State. The Cowboys have gone ahead and transformed themselves into a dark horse Final Four contender. They've won 11 of their last 13, the two losses were @ Iowa State (can't fight Hilton Magic) and a double-OT loss to Kansas, and included in those eleven wins were victories over Oklahoma, Kansas, Kansas State, Baylor, and Iowa State. All you really need to know is that OK State's third best player is LeBryan Nash and he'd probably be the best player on 90% of NCAA teams (when he's engaged and paying attention, sort of has a disappearing thing going on).
BIG TEN CONFERENCE
Well here's the biggie, and I mean that not only because the stupid Gophers are in it, but because in reality I think it's hard to argue against this as the best conference in basketball. I mentioned the Big 12 having a bunch of well rated teams at kenpom, but the Big Ten has nine of their twelve ranked in the top 62 and nobody worse than #146. Add in that outside of Northwestern anybody can beat anybody else on any given day and this could really be wild. The Gophers and Michigan are fading, while Iowa and Purdue are rising which bunches the teams together even further. There are 8 teams who wouldn't shock me if they won this.
FAVORITE: Indiana. It's interesting to me that Indiana started as the big favorite in the conference, we spent the entire conference season wondering who was really number one and trying to figure out how good Indiana actually was, and now that we're done the Hoosiers come out as looking like pretty clearly the best team in the Big 10, don't they? I don't know, for my money they're clearly the top team in the conference.
SLEEPER: Illinois. If I wasn't a Minnesota fan I'd say the Gophers since they still have a really impressive list of good wins and have played well on neutral courts, but since I am a Gopher fan I know how freaking awful they've been so I refuse to support them in any way. I also think Illinois really sucks, but Iowa sucks worse, and everybody else is either too good to be a sleeper or too crappy to have a prayer. Illinois shoots so many stupid three-pointers they could conceivably get hot enough to win a couple of games, even if they don't have a chance of winning this thing. The Gophers, on the other hand, actually do have a chance to win the B10 Tournament, but I refuse to care enough to care. That's not a typo.
W's PICK: Michigan. Maybe this goes back to the old Steve Fisher days, but Michigan always strikes me as a damn good tournament type team. The Fab Five never flamed out early and made two Final Fours when they were all together, they won the first ever Big Ten Tournament, and other than last year I can't remember them ever losing early in the NCAAs. By the way, now that I look it up to try to avoid looking like an idiot, it turns out the reason I don't remember them flaming out early is because Michigan didn't make a single NCAA Tournament between 1998 and 2009. For serious. That is ridiculous.
Sorry if you were looking for more Gopher specific stuff, but I don't know what to write anymore. They're good enough to beat anybody in the Big Ten and bad enough to lose to anybody in the Big Ten. Illinois chucks a shitload of threes, and if they're making them the Gophers are screwed. If not, the Gophers have to execute their half court offense to win. Does any of that sound manageable? I just don't even know anymore. Here are my last thoughts on the Gophers. This is all I got, bro. At least until I see how they play against Illinois.
Wednesday, September 21, 2011
NCAA Hoops Preview - The ACC
As much as the idea of Syracuse not being in the Big East kind of churns my stomach, the upside that at least there will be a team in the conference capable of challenging UNC and Duke once in a while. I know they've traditionally been the best 2 teams, but things have just been ridiculous lately and might be topping (bottoming) out this year because nearly ever team has been killed by graduations and can't reload like those two nancies, so Duke and UNC are Final Four contenders at the same time you can't definitively point to any other ACC squad and say "that's a tournament team."
So I guess there's that.
1. NORTH CAROLINA TAR HEELS. For most teams losing a guy like Leslie McDonald for the season to a knee injury would be a big blow, but not this year's Heels. That is basically the only loss they suffered from their roster. Harrison Barnes, last year's #2 recruit and potential top 3 pick in the NBA draft last year, decided to return for another year of seasoning and, after a rough start to his career, began to flourish at the end, scoring 18+ points in 9 of the team's last 10 games. Tyler Zeller is still there and his offensive game is really turning into a thing of beauty, and the defense of John Henson will be there as well to block more shots than jesus. They also have their point guard back in Kendall Marshall, who is already turning into one of the best PGs in UNC History (although nobody will ever be better than Ed Cota). In case you want more, they also bring in a couple of new studs in F James McAdoo (#8 by Rivals) and P.J. Hairston (#13 and called the best shooter in this class), and have a bunch of other former top recruit types from the last couple of years who I haven't even mentioned. Yes, they're loaded. There's a reason why they're 3-1 to win the whole thing (sucker bet).
2. DUKE BLUE DEVILS. Kyrie Irving, Kyle Singler, and Nolan Smith is a huge amount of production and talent to lose, but you know the drill - unfortunately for every one who doesn't worship Satan, they just replace talent with talent are look to once again be one of the best teams in the nation. That isn't to say they won't have some weaknesses, however, because I refuse to believe that no matter how many Plumlees you have (and Duke is now up to 3) those aren't the type of bigs who are going to take you to a National Championship. Not counting, of course, the one they won 2 years ago, but that was really all Brian Zoubek. The three most interesting story lines to me are whether or not Seth Curry can be a team player and not end up a massive chuck monster like his brother, whether or not Austin Rivers (#1 freshman in the country) can integrate himself into a real (and good) team when his whole high school career has been him having to score 40 to carry a lackluster supporting cast, and just how gay is Duke, anyway?
3. MIAMI HURRICANES. The Canes are one of the few teams that were not hit hard by graduations/defections and return a couple of dynamic guards in Durand Scott and Malcolm Grant along with double-double machine Reggie Johnson who pretty much destroyed Duke last year since those pansies can't handle big, strong post players. And I'm sure you remember Scott and Grant, seeing as how they combined for 36 points against the Gophers two seasons ago in Florida completing the teams 3-game collapse after faltering in Anaheim and completely buzzkilling all the good feelings after they beat Butler. Yeah, I hate Miami.
4. VIRGINIA CAVALIERS. Mike Scott and his 16 and 10 averages are back after red-shirting last year due to an injury, and I like their plan of going with Scott and spreading a bunch of shooters out on the floor. And no, it's not just because Virginia shot 10-13 from three last year to kill the Gophers, they legitimately have some good shooters (Joe Harris, K.T. Harrell, and Sammy Zeglinski can all shoot it and both incoming freshmen can hit from outside) and Mike Scott is a legitimate beast. Overall Virginia was 19th in the country in 3-pt percentage and 23rd in % of points coming from behind the line, and that was with Scott only around for 10 games. I don't know. Maybe it is my memories of that game coloring my opinion, but I see the Cavs as a dangerous team this year.
5. FLORIDA STATE SEMINOLES. FSU is likely a near guarantee for an NCAA bid because their defense is always so good it's unlikely they'll completely implode, but you can't quite trust them because they are never offensively a good team and this year they don't have a real PG. They didn't last year either and things worked out, but last year they had Chris Singleton (most of the year) and Derwin Kitchen, both of whom could actually score once in a while and both of whom are gone. You know the defense will be there and you know they'll probably beat either UNC or Duke in Tallahassee, but it will be up to the offense whether this is a good team or a very good team. They're bringing in three top 150 recruits, all of whom are supposedly offensive players, so if any of them can get going right away that'll be a big boost. Remember the name Antwan Space. Just do it.
6. CLEMSON TIGERS. Not unlike the Seminoles, Clemson was hit hard by graduation, losing Demontez Stitt (leading scorer and assist man) and Jerai Grant (second leading scorer and leading rebounder) but they are such a solid defensive squad under Brad Brownell that they'll still be in the hunt for an NCAA bid, although at this point in the ACC most of these teams could finish anywhere from 5th to 10th. Still, the Tigers will have some talent including Devin Booker, the younger brother of former Clemson All-ACC performer Trevor. He hasn't quite made the same splash that Trevor did in his first two years, but the potential is probably there I'd assume. And speaking of potential, they actually have a McDonald's All-American on their roster in Milton Jennings. He managed 4 double-doubles last season, which makes Trevor Mbakwe laugh, but he could end up being the x-factor for Clemson. Whatever that means. I don't know, I'm just typing, man.
7. VIRGINIA TECH HOKIES. The Hokies have a couple huge holes to fill, losing both Malcolm Delaney and Jeff Allen who basically did everything for them. Fortunately, the have plenty of options to fill those holes, including two other returning double-digit scorers and a nice big recruiting class that includes some likely future stars - PF C.J. Barksdale, SG Robert Brown, and SF Dorian Finney-Smith are all top 100 on Rivals list with Finney-Smith topping the list at #31. So yeah, there are some big losses for the Hokies, but they might end up better in the long run. They had some serious choke jobs the last couple of years, and Delaney was a big part - mainly because he wanted the ball and everybody knew he was getting the ball. Perhaps a little balance could work in V-Tech's favor? Whatever it takes so we don't have to listen to Seth Greenberg whine about the selection committee again. My least favorite spring ritual.
8. NC STATE WOLFPACK. Losing Tracy Smith is tough, but losing both your point guards - including emerging star Ryan Harrow (who transferred to Kentucky after the coaching change from Lowe to Gottfried) is going to be tougher. State still has one of the most exciting players in the conference in PF C.J. Leslie, who was the #14 recruit in the nation his freshman year and averaged 11 & 7, along with a couple of other nice players in SG Lorenzo Brown (#37 last year) and dead-eye shooter Scott Wood so they'll be middle of the road with some chances to surprise people. If Brown can handle the point - or incoming CS-Bakersfield transfer guy can - they could finish significantly higher than this. I really love me some C.J. Leslie.
9. GEORGIA TECH YELLOW JACKETS. Do you think Glen Rice Jr. might have to look at a picture or two of Sarah Palin when Tech travels to Cameron or the Dean Dome or really anywhere? Hopefully for them he'll be able to block it out, because he's going to be the main offensive weapon on this team and has the talent and situation to potentially blossom into an All-ACC type of player, particularly with Iman Shumpert leaving for the NBA and Brian Oliver transferring to Seton Hall. Maybe the best news for Tech, however, is that Paul Hewitt is finally gone because even though he was a hell of a recruiter the guy was routinely out coached and over matched. Brian Gregory turned the garbage dumpster of Dayton into something reasonably mediocre and Tech is a much better program so he'll likely have them turned around sooner rather than later.
10. MARYLAND TERRAPINS. Yet another team that got hit hard by graduation, not only did Maryland lose a ton off last year's team but when Gary Williams decided to quit coaching an a pretty inopportune time like some kind of sweaty rhinoceros he didn't do the team any favors because most of the recruits he'd signed, and there were some good ones, jumped ship. They did manage to hold on to Nick Faust, a hometown kid who is a very good player (#48 rivals) and will make this team's strength - the back court - even stronger. The biggest questions will be on the interior. With the beast that was Jordan Williams and his double-double average off to the NBA and no notable additions with size, they'll have to turn to unproven upperclassmen to play in the paint. That always works well.
11. WAKE FOREST DEMON DEACONS. Wake might have been the worst major conference team in 300 years last season, so they can only get better. You'd think. Unfortunately lack of talent continues to meet up with knuckleheadism, with former top 100 recruit J.T. Terrell leaving the team after getting arrested for a DWI and fellow top 100 recruit Melvin Tabb currently suspended indefinitely for some ambiguous reason. The one big bright spot is SF Travis McKie who led the team in both scoring and rebounding last season. And this is where I'd write a sentence to tie all of that together, but every time I tried to watch a Wake game last year they were losing by 25 in the first half so I didn't really pay all that much attention.
12. BOSTON COLLEGE EAGLES. I don't know that I've ever seen something this dramatic, and it's hard to believe in this conference this year, but the Eagles come into this season with 92% of last year's scoring gone. 92%, yo. That means I got a 92% chance of embarrassing myself. I'll roll up on some shorty and be like "whats' up, yo" and she'll be like, "you don't know 20 ways to make me call you big poppa" because I don't, yo. I just typed that from memory so it might not be dead on but it's definitely close. Anyway, BC has 9 freshmen this year and I've never heard of any of them and they aren't on any lists so let's be honest, the quote was a much better use of our time.
Other Previews:
Big 12
So I guess there's that.
1. NORTH CAROLINA TAR HEELS. For most teams losing a guy like Leslie McDonald for the season to a knee injury would be a big blow, but not this year's Heels. That is basically the only loss they suffered from their roster. Harrison Barnes, last year's #2 recruit and potential top 3 pick in the NBA draft last year, decided to return for another year of seasoning and, after a rough start to his career, began to flourish at the end, scoring 18+ points in 9 of the team's last 10 games. Tyler Zeller is still there and his offensive game is really turning into a thing of beauty, and the defense of John Henson will be there as well to block more shots than jesus. They also have their point guard back in Kendall Marshall, who is already turning into one of the best PGs in UNC History (although nobody will ever be better than Ed Cota). In case you want more, they also bring in a couple of new studs in F James McAdoo (#8 by Rivals) and P.J. Hairston (#13 and called the best shooter in this class), and have a bunch of other former top recruit types from the last couple of years who I haven't even mentioned. Yes, they're loaded. There's a reason why they're 3-1 to win the whole thing (sucker bet).
2. DUKE BLUE DEVILS. Kyrie Irving, Kyle Singler, and Nolan Smith is a huge amount of production and talent to lose, but you know the drill - unfortunately for every one who doesn't worship Satan, they just replace talent with talent are look to once again be one of the best teams in the nation. That isn't to say they won't have some weaknesses, however, because I refuse to believe that no matter how many Plumlees you have (and Duke is now up to 3) those aren't the type of bigs who are going to take you to a National Championship. Not counting, of course, the one they won 2 years ago, but that was really all Brian Zoubek. The three most interesting story lines to me are whether or not Seth Curry can be a team player and not end up a massive chuck monster like his brother, whether or not Austin Rivers (#1 freshman in the country) can integrate himself into a real (and good) team when his whole high school career has been him having to score 40 to carry a lackluster supporting cast, and just how gay is Duke, anyway?
3. MIAMI HURRICANES. The Canes are one of the few teams that were not hit hard by graduations/defections and return a couple of dynamic guards in Durand Scott and Malcolm Grant along with double-double machine Reggie Johnson who pretty much destroyed Duke last year since those pansies can't handle big, strong post players. And I'm sure you remember Scott and Grant, seeing as how they combined for 36 points against the Gophers two seasons ago in Florida completing the teams 3-game collapse after faltering in Anaheim and completely buzzkilling all the good feelings after they beat Butler. Yeah, I hate Miami.
4. VIRGINIA CAVALIERS. Mike Scott and his 16 and 10 averages are back after red-shirting last year due to an injury, and I like their plan of going with Scott and spreading a bunch of shooters out on the floor. And no, it's not just because Virginia shot 10-13 from three last year to kill the Gophers, they legitimately have some good shooters (Joe Harris, K.T. Harrell, and Sammy Zeglinski can all shoot it and both incoming freshmen can hit from outside) and Mike Scott is a legitimate beast. Overall Virginia was 19th in the country in 3-pt percentage and 23rd in % of points coming from behind the line, and that was with Scott only around for 10 games. I don't know. Maybe it is my memories of that game coloring my opinion, but I see the Cavs as a dangerous team this year.
5. FLORIDA STATE SEMINOLES. FSU is likely a near guarantee for an NCAA bid because their defense is always so good it's unlikely they'll completely implode, but you can't quite trust them because they are never offensively a good team and this year they don't have a real PG. They didn't last year either and things worked out, but last year they had Chris Singleton (most of the year) and Derwin Kitchen, both of whom could actually score once in a while and both of whom are gone. You know the defense will be there and you know they'll probably beat either UNC or Duke in Tallahassee, but it will be up to the offense whether this is a good team or a very good team. They're bringing in three top 150 recruits, all of whom are supposedly offensive players, so if any of them can get going right away that'll be a big boost. Remember the name Antwan Space. Just do it.
6. CLEMSON TIGERS. Not unlike the Seminoles, Clemson was hit hard by graduation, losing Demontez Stitt (leading scorer and assist man) and Jerai Grant (second leading scorer and leading rebounder) but they are such a solid defensive squad under Brad Brownell that they'll still be in the hunt for an NCAA bid, although at this point in the ACC most of these teams could finish anywhere from 5th to 10th. Still, the Tigers will have some talent including Devin Booker, the younger brother of former Clemson All-ACC performer Trevor. He hasn't quite made the same splash that Trevor did in his first two years, but the potential is probably there I'd assume. And speaking of potential, they actually have a McDonald's All-American on their roster in Milton Jennings. He managed 4 double-doubles last season, which makes Trevor Mbakwe laugh, but he could end up being the x-factor for Clemson. Whatever that means. I don't know, I'm just typing, man.
7. VIRGINIA TECH HOKIES. The Hokies have a couple huge holes to fill, losing both Malcolm Delaney and Jeff Allen who basically did everything for them. Fortunately, the have plenty of options to fill those holes, including two other returning double-digit scorers and a nice big recruiting class that includes some likely future stars - PF C.J. Barksdale, SG Robert Brown, and SF Dorian Finney-Smith are all top 100 on Rivals list with Finney-Smith topping the list at #31. So yeah, there are some big losses for the Hokies, but they might end up better in the long run. They had some serious choke jobs the last couple of years, and Delaney was a big part - mainly because he wanted the ball and everybody knew he was getting the ball. Perhaps a little balance could work in V-Tech's favor? Whatever it takes so we don't have to listen to Seth Greenberg whine about the selection committee again. My least favorite spring ritual.
8. NC STATE WOLFPACK. Losing Tracy Smith is tough, but losing both your point guards - including emerging star Ryan Harrow (who transferred to Kentucky after the coaching change from Lowe to Gottfried) is going to be tougher. State still has one of the most exciting players in the conference in PF C.J. Leslie, who was the #14 recruit in the nation his freshman year and averaged 11 & 7, along with a couple of other nice players in SG Lorenzo Brown (#37 last year) and dead-eye shooter Scott Wood so they'll be middle of the road with some chances to surprise people. If Brown can handle the point - or incoming CS-Bakersfield transfer guy can - they could finish significantly higher than this. I really love me some C.J. Leslie.
9. GEORGIA TECH YELLOW JACKETS. Do you think Glen Rice Jr. might have to look at a picture or two of Sarah Palin when Tech travels to Cameron or the Dean Dome or really anywhere? Hopefully for them he'll be able to block it out, because he's going to be the main offensive weapon on this team and has the talent and situation to potentially blossom into an All-ACC type of player, particularly with Iman Shumpert leaving for the NBA and Brian Oliver transferring to Seton Hall. Maybe the best news for Tech, however, is that Paul Hewitt is finally gone because even though he was a hell of a recruiter the guy was routinely out coached and over matched. Brian Gregory turned the garbage dumpster of Dayton into something reasonably mediocre and Tech is a much better program so he'll likely have them turned around sooner rather than later.
10. MARYLAND TERRAPINS. Yet another team that got hit hard by graduation, not only did Maryland lose a ton off last year's team but when Gary Williams decided to quit coaching an a pretty inopportune time like some kind of sweaty rhinoceros he didn't do the team any favors because most of the recruits he'd signed, and there were some good ones, jumped ship. They did manage to hold on to Nick Faust, a hometown kid who is a very good player (#48 rivals) and will make this team's strength - the back court - even stronger. The biggest questions will be on the interior. With the beast that was Jordan Williams and his double-double average off to the NBA and no notable additions with size, they'll have to turn to unproven upperclassmen to play in the paint. That always works well.
11. WAKE FOREST DEMON DEACONS. Wake might have been the worst major conference team in 300 years last season, so they can only get better. You'd think. Unfortunately lack of talent continues to meet up with knuckleheadism, with former top 100 recruit J.T. Terrell leaving the team after getting arrested for a DWI and fellow top 100 recruit Melvin Tabb currently suspended indefinitely for some ambiguous reason. The one big bright spot is SF Travis McKie who led the team in both scoring and rebounding last season. And this is where I'd write a sentence to tie all of that together, but every time I tried to watch a Wake game last year they were losing by 25 in the first half so I didn't really pay all that much attention.
12. BOSTON COLLEGE EAGLES. I don't know that I've ever seen something this dramatic, and it's hard to believe in this conference this year, but the Eagles come into this season with 92% of last year's scoring gone. 92%, yo. That means I got a 92% chance of embarrassing myself. I'll roll up on some shorty and be like "whats' up, yo" and she'll be like, "you don't know 20 ways to make me call you big poppa" because I don't, yo. I just typed that from memory so it might not be dead on but it's definitely close. Anyway, BC has 9 freshmen this year and I've never heard of any of them and they aren't on any lists so let's be honest, the quote was a much better use of our time.
Other Previews:
Big 12
Monday, November 29, 2010
Preview: Minnesota Gophers vs. Virgina Cavaliers
Tonight your beloved Minnesota Golden Gophers basketball team will welcome the Virginia Cavaliers to Williams Arena for the opening match-up of the ACC/Big Ten Challenge. A chance to get a quality win, you ask? An opportunity to get a feel for how good the Gophers can be against a quality foe, you wonder?
No. Not at all.
Unfortunately, the way the match-ups fell gives the Gophers a sub-par opponent in the Cavs, a team that won just five conference games last year and saw it's best player booted due to academics, the starting point guard go down due to knee injury before the season started, and last year's top recruit transfer to Central Florida. Tony Bennett has the program moving in the right direction, and next year's recruiting class is one of the better ones in the country, but this year this team is sort of, well, not good.
They are 3-3, and did manage a win over Oklahoma - but then that same Oklahoma team lost to Chaminade. The good, or even mediocre, teams Virginia has played have all won handily (Wichita State by 12, Stanford by 19, and Washington by an absurd 43), and so should Minnesota.
The biggest concern when it comes to defending Virginia is power forward Mike Scott, a bruising double-double machine (17 pts, 9 rebs per game this year) who has been basically doing the same thing for three years. He's not a star, but he's an outstanding player, who is unfortunately been thrust into the "#1 option" role when he should probably be more of a complimentary player. I say that because he is too easy to shut down at times, as shown by the 0 point/3 rebs, 0 point/1 reb, and 2 point/1 reb. lines he put up in ACC play last year. He also has absolutely nothing playing next to him in the paint - the next five leading scorers are all guards, only one other post player averages more than 1.8 points per game, and that guy (Will Sherrill) is more of a perimeter guy, with 20 of his 28 field goal attempts on the year from behind the three point line.
So clearly this is a guard oriented team, and that's reflected in two of their strengths - they don't turn the ball over a ton (81st in the country) and they shoot well from three (39.4% - 46th in the country), and contrary to what you'd expect, they are excellent at keeping their opponents off the offensive boards (34th in the country). Also contrary to what you would expect, they are absolutely god awful against the three-pointer, with their opponents shooting 46.6% on the year, 339th in the country - their are only 345 teams. They are also no very good against 2-pointers, allowing 48.4% shooting and ranking 198th. An efficient offensive team like the Gophers should be able to absolutely shred them. Look for Hoff to hit about 8 three-pointers.
And that should be enough. Hoff should have good looks from three most of the game, along with Devoe Joseph if he plays, and Sampson, Mbakwe and company should be able to find open spots in the paint all game. I expect this to be similar to the Western Kentucky game in that the Gophers will probably shoot around 60% or so, although scoring will probably be down because Virginia plays a much slower game than WKU, and there should be fewer turnovers. That kind of scoring efficiency is going to be touch for the Cavs to deal with, especially since their best player isn't a "carry the team" type and should be bracketed by the Gophers' bigs fairly effectively. The one danger is that Virginia gets ridiculously hot from three - and they can.
The Cavs shot over 45% from three twice this year, and guards Billy Baron (brother of former Rhode Island sharp shooter Jimmy), Joe Harris, and Mustapha Farrakhan as well as Sherrill have all hit at least three three-pointers in a single game. If multiple guys are hot tonight, and it's possible given that the Gophers are thoroughly average at defending the three, there does exist a non-zero possibility of an upset. Ken Pomeroy gives Virginia a 12% chance of winning. I'd put it at more like 4%.
Minnesota 75, Virginia 60
No. Not at all.
Unfortunately, the way the match-ups fell gives the Gophers a sub-par opponent in the Cavs, a team that won just five conference games last year and saw it's best player booted due to academics, the starting point guard go down due to knee injury before the season started, and last year's top recruit transfer to Central Florida. Tony Bennett has the program moving in the right direction, and next year's recruiting class is one of the better ones in the country, but this year this team is sort of, well, not good.
They are 3-3, and did manage a win over Oklahoma - but then that same Oklahoma team lost to Chaminade. The good, or even mediocre, teams Virginia has played have all won handily (Wichita State by 12, Stanford by 19, and Washington by an absurd 43), and so should Minnesota.
The biggest concern when it comes to defending Virginia is power forward Mike Scott, a bruising double-double machine (17 pts, 9 rebs per game this year) who has been basically doing the same thing for three years. He's not a star, but he's an outstanding player, who is unfortunately been thrust into the "#1 option" role when he should probably be more of a complimentary player. I say that because he is too easy to shut down at times, as shown by the 0 point/3 rebs, 0 point/1 reb, and 2 point/1 reb. lines he put up in ACC play last year. He also has absolutely nothing playing next to him in the paint - the next five leading scorers are all guards, only one other post player averages more than 1.8 points per game, and that guy (Will Sherrill) is more of a perimeter guy, with 20 of his 28 field goal attempts on the year from behind the three point line.
So clearly this is a guard oriented team, and that's reflected in two of their strengths - they don't turn the ball over a ton (81st in the country) and they shoot well from three (39.4% - 46th in the country), and contrary to what you'd expect, they are excellent at keeping their opponents off the offensive boards (34th in the country). Also contrary to what you would expect, they are absolutely god awful against the three-pointer, with their opponents shooting 46.6% on the year, 339th in the country - their are only 345 teams. They are also no very good against 2-pointers, allowing 48.4% shooting and ranking 198th. An efficient offensive team like the Gophers should be able to absolutely shred them. Look for Hoff to hit about 8 three-pointers.
And that should be enough. Hoff should have good looks from three most of the game, along with Devoe Joseph if he plays, and Sampson, Mbakwe and company should be able to find open spots in the paint all game. I expect this to be similar to the Western Kentucky game in that the Gophers will probably shoot around 60% or so, although scoring will probably be down because Virginia plays a much slower game than WKU, and there should be fewer turnovers. That kind of scoring efficiency is going to be touch for the Cavs to deal with, especially since their best player isn't a "carry the team" type and should be bracketed by the Gophers' bigs fairly effectively. The one danger is that Virginia gets ridiculously hot from three - and they can.
The Cavs shot over 45% from three twice this year, and guards Billy Baron (brother of former Rhode Island sharp shooter Jimmy), Joe Harris, and Mustapha Farrakhan as well as Sherrill have all hit at least three three-pointers in a single game. If multiple guys are hot tonight, and it's possible given that the Gophers are thoroughly average at defending the three, there does exist a non-zero possibility of an upset. Ken Pomeroy gives Virginia a 12% chance of winning. I'd put it at more like 4%.
Minnesota 75, Virginia 60
Tuesday, October 12, 2010
ACC College Basketball 2010 Preview
The ACC has been almost been a two team league lately, and it looks like it might stay that way. Sure, NC State and Virginia Tech are up this year, but Clemson, Georgia Tech, and especially Wake Forest are down. Even when UNC was bad last year, you knew it wouldn't last, and in Duke's darkest days they recovered. It seems every other school is on a constant up/down cycle. Either Duke or UNC has either won outright or tied for the ACC regular season championship the last seven years and 17 of the last 20. That's lame. Somebody do something.
1. Duke Blue Devils. I mean, you pretty much have to pick them first, right, no matter how much it burns when you say it? Scheyer is gone, but they are so loaded with everybody else coming in, and the rumor is that incoming frosh PG Kyrie Irving is the best player on the Duke roster - and Singler is still here. About the only real issues are with Brian Zoubek and Lance Thomas gone there are some questions about Duke's toughness inside since they're all a bunch of dandies down in Durham. I'll also be curious to see how many games Seth Curry shoots the Devils right out of.
2. North Carolina Tar Heels. I hate putting them second since they didn't even bother to make the NCAA Tournament last season, but the talent level is there - at least on paper. Harrison Barnes is going to be a great one, Kevin Durant II, maybe, and Henson and Zellar are supposed to be star types as well. The real question, as it was last year, is what of the PG spot? Larry Drew was a disappointment most of last season, and I've read some are questioning if incoming freshman Kendall Marshall is really ACC material (and of course, the next thing you read says he's the best PG in this class). Projected starting shooting guard Will Graves was also just dismissed for the ever ubiquitous "violation of team rules" so there's even more uncertainty in the backcourt. Combine those questions with the thin frontcourt and although they have the talent and I'm picking them at #2 they also have to potential to fall apart for a second consecutive season. I'm hoping for the second one.
3. North Carolina State Wolfpack. This is the team I'll be rooting for out of the ACC this year, and they pretty much deserve to have a nice season. Sid Lowe hasn't show himself to necessarily be much of a game coach, which we are all pretty familiar with here in Minnesota, but his recruiting efforts are paying off. The Wolfpack landed one of the best classes in the country (ESPN ranks it as the 7th best) with power forward C.J. Leslie and guards Lorenzo Brown and Ryan Harrow all ranking in the top 37 in the country according to Rivals. With their All-ACC second team PF Tracy Smith back along with big-time shooter Scott Wood, all the talent is there for NC State to be relevant for the first time since Fire & Ice. Yes, Fire & Ice. You know you remember them.
4. Florida State Seminoles. There are plenty of question marks, but FSU also has some seriously top flight talent coming back, and this team continues to be a defensive powerhouse year-after-year, which means they always have a chance. Helping out would be some offensive firepower, and they have two guys with a chance to really bring it: Chris Singleton, a junior forward who can do it all, and Michael Snaer, a sophomore guard and great athlete who needs to improve his shot. Also look for Xavier Gibson to try to fill in for Solomon Alabi. He might end up as the biggest key to FSU's season. Also, literally since he's 6-11, 240.
5. Virginia Tech Hokies. They were going to be my sleeper and I was going to pick them second in the ACC for this year, but injuries have hurt their depth and although I fear I may be dropping them too far, I also think their depth behind Malcolm Delaney was their biggest strength. And there's no doubt Delaney is an ACC Player-of-the-Year candidate and a possible All-American, but it will be up to that supporting cast to take VT as far as they are going to go. The best news for the Hokies, however, is that they finally put together a decent non-conference schedule, so the annual tradition of coach Seth Greenberg bitching that his team deserves an NCAA bid despite not having played anybody out of conference all year should mercifully come to an end.
6. Maryland Terrapins. The Terps lose a ton, with three career 1,000 point scorers on their way out in dirty stud Greivis Vasquez, backcourt mate Eric Hayes, and swingman Landon Milbourne, but Gary Williams still has some good talent and also sweats a lot. Jordan Williams proved himself to be one of the best rebounders in the conference last year and has a very good all-around game, and Sean Mosley is one of those solid, all-around guards who score when needed, are smart with the ball, and grab too many rebounds for their size; an excellent complementary piece, but they need a star to team with Williams. The recruiting class is deep, but not exceptional at the top, so expect Maryland to be a solid, yet unspectacular team this year. Sort of like set-up man extraordinaire Scott Shields.
7. Miami Hurricanes. It's not often a team loses it's highest scoring guard (James Dews) and highest scoring post player (Dwayne Collins) and gets better without an outstanding recruiting class, but that may be the case for the Hurricanes this year thanks to Durand Scott. Don't forget that although Miami finished last in the ACC at 4-12 (way to go, Gophers) they did have a nice little run going in the ACC tournament beating Wake, Virginia Tech in a game the Hokies needed desperately, and losing by just three to Duke, and the biggest reason for their success in two of those three games was the play of Scott. He's not much of a shooter (just 29% from three on just 58 attempts), but if he ever adds that piece to his game he could end up an all-league type of player, or get good enough to transfer like Denis Clemente did.
8. Virginia Cavaliers. Most of the positive affects of hiring Tony Bennett won't be felt until his recruiting classes have more time to gel, particularly with Sylvan Landesburg no longer being on the team, and last year was pretty meh but I have a hunch this year the Cavaliers are going to be tough and knock off a team or two they shouldn't (please not the Gophers please). A large and talented class of freshmen, led by guards K.T. Harrell (#30 recruit by Rivals) and Joe Harris (#119) and forwards James Johnson (#108) and Will Regan (#148), will join an established star, if second tier one, in forward Mike Scott and two other returning starters. That's a lot of talent in Charlottesville, more than we've seen in quite some time. They probably aren't ready to be truly dangerous yet, but they're going to be pesky. You watch. If they don't knock off more than one top 25 team this year I'll send everyone who remembers this prediction a token of my shame as an act of contrition.
9. Boston College Eagles. Most of the squad is back from last season, with just the transferring Rakim Sanders missing, but the problem is what's left just isn't all that exciting. Joe Trapani is already an excellent all-around player and should thrive in new coach Steve Donahue's offense, and there are a couple of other decent players but the team is thin, both in bodies and in talent. Donahue is already paying dividends on the recruiting trail (one site I saw has them with the #17 recruiting class in the country for next year) so things should turn around soon for B.C., just not this year.
10. Clemson Tigers. Nearly everybody is back from last year's NCAA team, but the one guy missing is going to be very difficult to replace in Trevor Booker, who was top 10 last year in the ACC in scoring, rebounding, and field goal percentage, even if they do have his little brother. Booker basically carried that team last season, and it may be up to the only other double-digit scorer from last year, point man Demontez Stitt, to carry them this year. He did score 21 in their NCAA Tournament loss to Missouri, but reached 20 points just two other times last year, and doesn't average many assists for a point guard (just 3.1 apg). Really there is a lot of blah talent here, and unless somebody takes a big leap forward the Tigers' streak of three straight NCAA Tourny bids will end at three.
11. Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets. The Jackets have a lineup of guards that could potentially be as good as any group in the country. Mfon Udofia, Iman Shumpert, Brian Oliver, and Glen Rice, Jr. was a nice group last year and will be outstanding this year. Unfortunately, there's nothing in the front court after Derrick Favors and Gani Lawal took off for the NBA and Zack Peacock graduated, so it's going to be awfully difficult to compete. The only non-freshman over 6'-6" is seven-footer Brad Sheehan whose scored less than a hundred points in his combined three years, and the freshman aren't exactly superstars, with one who redshirted last year because he wasn't ready and another coming off a torn ACL. It's going to be a rough year in Atlanta (although honestly when isn't it? Talk about murder-happy people, sheesh), but with the shooting and perimeter skills of the guards they might shock a team here and there.
12. Wake Forest Demon Deacons. At least the Jackets have their guards, the Demon Deacons can't even say they have that with the losses of Al-Farouq Aminu, Ishmael Smith, Chas McFarland, and LD Williams, leaving them with just C.J. Harris (9.9 ppg) as their only returning scorer. There is a good recruiting class coming in to Winston-Salem with four players in Rivals top 100 arriving on campus this year so the future looks bright, but this is going to be a pretty awful team this season. I mean, like, Dan Monson's Gophers terrible. Yes, for real.
Other Previews:
The Big 12
1. Duke Blue Devils. I mean, you pretty much have to pick them first, right, no matter how much it burns when you say it? Scheyer is gone, but they are so loaded with everybody else coming in, and the rumor is that incoming frosh PG Kyrie Irving is the best player on the Duke roster - and Singler is still here. About the only real issues are with Brian Zoubek and Lance Thomas gone there are some questions about Duke's toughness inside since they're all a bunch of dandies down in Durham. I'll also be curious to see how many games Seth Curry shoots the Devils right out of.
2. North Carolina Tar Heels. I hate putting them second since they didn't even bother to make the NCAA Tournament last season, but the talent level is there - at least on paper. Harrison Barnes is going to be a great one, Kevin Durant II, maybe, and Henson and Zellar are supposed to be star types as well. The real question, as it was last year, is what of the PG spot? Larry Drew was a disappointment most of last season, and I've read some are questioning if incoming freshman Kendall Marshall is really ACC material (and of course, the next thing you read says he's the best PG in this class). Projected starting shooting guard Will Graves was also just dismissed for the ever ubiquitous "violation of team rules" so there's even more uncertainty in the backcourt. Combine those questions with the thin frontcourt and although they have the talent and I'm picking them at #2 they also have to potential to fall apart for a second consecutive season. I'm hoping for the second one.
3. North Carolina State Wolfpack. This is the team I'll be rooting for out of the ACC this year, and they pretty much deserve to have a nice season. Sid Lowe hasn't show himself to necessarily be much of a game coach, which we are all pretty familiar with here in Minnesota, but his recruiting efforts are paying off. The Wolfpack landed one of the best classes in the country (ESPN ranks it as the 7th best) with power forward C.J. Leslie and guards Lorenzo Brown and Ryan Harrow all ranking in the top 37 in the country according to Rivals. With their All-ACC second team PF Tracy Smith back along with big-time shooter Scott Wood, all the talent is there for NC State to be relevant for the first time since Fire & Ice. Yes, Fire & Ice. You know you remember them.
4. Florida State Seminoles. There are plenty of question marks, but FSU also has some seriously top flight talent coming back, and this team continues to be a defensive powerhouse year-after-year, which means they always have a chance. Helping out would be some offensive firepower, and they have two guys with a chance to really bring it: Chris Singleton, a junior forward who can do it all, and Michael Snaer, a sophomore guard and great athlete who needs to improve his shot. Also look for Xavier Gibson to try to fill in for Solomon Alabi. He might end up as the biggest key to FSU's season. Also, literally since he's 6-11, 240.
5. Virginia Tech Hokies. They were going to be my sleeper and I was going to pick them second in the ACC for this year, but injuries have hurt their depth and although I fear I may be dropping them too far, I also think their depth behind Malcolm Delaney was their biggest strength. And there's no doubt Delaney is an ACC Player-of-the-Year candidate and a possible All-American, but it will be up to that supporting cast to take VT as far as they are going to go. The best news for the Hokies, however, is that they finally put together a decent non-conference schedule, so the annual tradition of coach Seth Greenberg bitching that his team deserves an NCAA bid despite not having played anybody out of conference all year should mercifully come to an end.
6. Maryland Terrapins. The Terps lose a ton, with three career 1,000 point scorers on their way out in dirty stud Greivis Vasquez, backcourt mate Eric Hayes, and swingman Landon Milbourne, but Gary Williams still has some good talent and also sweats a lot. Jordan Williams proved himself to be one of the best rebounders in the conference last year and has a very good all-around game, and Sean Mosley is one of those solid, all-around guards who score when needed, are smart with the ball, and grab too many rebounds for their size; an excellent complementary piece, but they need a star to team with Williams. The recruiting class is deep, but not exceptional at the top, so expect Maryland to be a solid, yet unspectacular team this year. Sort of like set-up man extraordinaire Scott Shields.
7. Miami Hurricanes. It's not often a team loses it's highest scoring guard (James Dews) and highest scoring post player (Dwayne Collins) and gets better without an outstanding recruiting class, but that may be the case for the Hurricanes this year thanks to Durand Scott. Don't forget that although Miami finished last in the ACC at 4-12 (way to go, Gophers) they did have a nice little run going in the ACC tournament beating Wake, Virginia Tech in a game the Hokies needed desperately, and losing by just three to Duke, and the biggest reason for their success in two of those three games was the play of Scott. He's not much of a shooter (just 29% from three on just 58 attempts), but if he ever adds that piece to his game he could end up an all-league type of player, or get good enough to transfer like Denis Clemente did.
8. Virginia Cavaliers. Most of the positive affects of hiring Tony Bennett won't be felt until his recruiting classes have more time to gel, particularly with Sylvan Landesburg no longer being on the team, and last year was pretty meh but I have a hunch this year the Cavaliers are going to be tough and knock off a team or two they shouldn't (please not the Gophers please). A large and talented class of freshmen, led by guards K.T. Harrell (#30 recruit by Rivals) and Joe Harris (#119) and forwards James Johnson (#108) and Will Regan (#148), will join an established star, if second tier one, in forward Mike Scott and two other returning starters. That's a lot of talent in Charlottesville, more than we've seen in quite some time. They probably aren't ready to be truly dangerous yet, but they're going to be pesky. You watch. If they don't knock off more than one top 25 team this year I'll send everyone who remembers this prediction a token of my shame as an act of contrition.
9. Boston College Eagles. Most of the squad is back from last season, with just the transferring Rakim Sanders missing, but the problem is what's left just isn't all that exciting. Joe Trapani is already an excellent all-around player and should thrive in new coach Steve Donahue's offense, and there are a couple of other decent players but the team is thin, both in bodies and in talent. Donahue is already paying dividends on the recruiting trail (one site I saw has them with the #17 recruiting class in the country for next year) so things should turn around soon for B.C., just not this year.
10. Clemson Tigers. Nearly everybody is back from last year's NCAA team, but the one guy missing is going to be very difficult to replace in Trevor Booker, who was top 10 last year in the ACC in scoring, rebounding, and field goal percentage, even if they do have his little brother. Booker basically carried that team last season, and it may be up to the only other double-digit scorer from last year, point man Demontez Stitt, to carry them this year. He did score 21 in their NCAA Tournament loss to Missouri, but reached 20 points just two other times last year, and doesn't average many assists for a point guard (just 3.1 apg). Really there is a lot of blah talent here, and unless somebody takes a big leap forward the Tigers' streak of three straight NCAA Tourny bids will end at three.
11. Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets. The Jackets have a lineup of guards that could potentially be as good as any group in the country. Mfon Udofia, Iman Shumpert, Brian Oliver, and Glen Rice, Jr. was a nice group last year and will be outstanding this year. Unfortunately, there's nothing in the front court after Derrick Favors and Gani Lawal took off for the NBA and Zack Peacock graduated, so it's going to be awfully difficult to compete. The only non-freshman over 6'-6" is seven-footer Brad Sheehan whose scored less than a hundred points in his combined three years, and the freshman aren't exactly superstars, with one who redshirted last year because he wasn't ready and another coming off a torn ACL. It's going to be a rough year in Atlanta (although honestly when isn't it? Talk about murder-happy people, sheesh), but with the shooting and perimeter skills of the guards they might shock a team here and there.
12. Wake Forest Demon Deacons. At least the Jackets have their guards, the Demon Deacons can't even say they have that with the losses of Al-Farouq Aminu, Ishmael Smith, Chas McFarland, and LD Williams, leaving them with just C.J. Harris (9.9 ppg) as their only returning scorer. There is a good recruiting class coming in to Winston-Salem with four players in Rivals top 100 arriving on campus this year so the future looks bright, but this is going to be a pretty awful team this season. I mean, like, Dan Monson's Gophers terrible. Yes, for real.
Other Previews:
The Big 12
Monday, August 9, 2010
A Quick and Early look at the Gopher Basketball Non-Conference Schedule
Alright, so before when I said I wasn't going to do a post about the Gophers non-conference schedule I was obviously lying, because here is a post about the Gophers non-conference basketball schedule. I have tried to keep this information as accurate as possible, but there are always things that slip through and not even a genius such as myself can keep up with which players may or may not have been kicked off/left the team for every school in the country. At least I can guarantee their records are accurate. Probably.
Nov 2 vs. Northeastern State, Nov 8 vs. Winona State - Whatever. Pass.
Nov 12 vs. Wofford College
Record: 26-9 (15-3 SoCon), lost in first round of NCAAs to Wisconsin
Good Wins: @ Georgia, South Carolina
Last Year RPI: 70
Starters Lost: 1 (
NOTES: A nice homecoming game for seniors Noah "The more successful" Dahlman and Cameron Rundles, the Terriers should be favorites to repeat in the SoCon and will probably be the Gophers biggest test outside of Puerto Rico. Even so, this is a slow team without the athletes needed to keep up, and should be the first in a long line of easy wins to open the season.
Nov 15 vs. Siena
Record: 27-7 (17-1 MAAC), lost in first round of NCAAs to Purdue
Good Wins: None
Last Year RPI: 33
Starters Lost: 3
NOTES: One of the hottest mid-major type teams the last few years, the Saints should take a step back this year with a lot to replace including Ronald Moore, the national assist leader, and Edwin Ubiles and Alex Franklin, their two leading scorers and all-around threats from the wing. Still, they do have some firepower back (Clarence Jackson is going to explode this year) and will probably be the second best team the Gophers will face - which still means they should be an easy win.
Nov 18 vs. Western Kentucky (in Puerto Rico)
Record: 21-13 (10-6 Sun Belt)
Good Wins: Vanderbilt, Murray State
Last Year RPI: 138
Starters Lost: 2
NOTES: Top player A.J. Slaughter is gone, but the Hilltoppers have a bit of a mini-mid-major dynasty going and reload their roster with a very good recruiting class this season. They are bringing in five new players, including SG Brandon Peters who ranks as Rivals #129 freshman and a couple other three star recruits, along with a couple of transfers from Big 12 schools (Oklahoma and OSU). It's probably good the Gophers get them early, because I have a feeling they are going to be a lot tougher by the end of the year.
Nov 19 vs. North Carolina (in Puerto Rico, assuming they beat WKU)
Record: 20-17 (5-11 ACC), lost in NIT Championship game to Dayton
Good Wins: Ohio State, Michigan State, Wake, Miss State
Last Year RPI: 64
Starters Lost: 2 (I think)
NOTES: It's hard to say how many starters the Tar Heels lost because they used so many lineups last season and never really were able to figure the team out until the NIT, but don't let the record fool you they have a ton of talent. Harrison Barnes is amazing, John Henson started to look like he figured it out late in the season, Reggie Bulluck should be awesome, and really it just goes on and on. Of course, I would have said basically the same thing last year, but I find it hard to believe UNC is going to be at that level back-to-back seasons.
Nov 21 vs. Vanderbilt or West Virginai (or Nebraska or Davidson)
NOTES: Most likely this will be either WVU or Vandy, and a win over either would be a challenge and a nice resume builder. I think if they manage to beat UNC I'd hope for a championship matchup with he Mountaineers in order to get the biggest scalp possible, but if they lose to the Heels I'd hope they go up against Vandy, which would still be a nice win but an easier win as well.
Nov 24 vs. North Dakota State
Record: 11-18 (8-10 Summit)
Good Wins: None
Last Year RPI: 267
Starters Lost: 3
NOTES: This is not the same scrappy, rough-and-tumble, senior white boy led squad from a couple of years ago. This is just a bad team. Look at that RPI. Now realize it's going to be about the same this year. Worthless game here, rather than giving a few third and fourth tier former Minnesota high school players a chance to play in the Barn. I guess I can see some value in that, and if this was the only game against an opponent like this, I wouldn't complain.
Nov 29 vs. Virginia (Big 10/ACC Challenge)
Record: 15-15 (5-11 ACC)
Good Wins: UAB, Georgia Tech
Last Year RPI: 123
Starters Lost: 2
NOTES: We get Virginia again the Challenge, which is a yawner, especially since their best and most exciting player, Sylvan Landesberg, got essentially booted off the team last year and is currently trying to hook on with an NBA squad. Still, Tony Bennett is already starting to pay dividends on the recruiting trail, bringing in a very good class including #30 in the country K.T. Harrell, #108 James Johnson, #119 Joe Harris, and #148 Will Regan. Wait. Holy crap that's a really good class. Virginia is on their way back to relevance (like, Harold Deane/Curtis Staples territory), and I'm now amending my previous statement and saying that THIS will be the toughest non-Puerto Rico game.
Dec 4 vs. Cornell
Record: 27-4 (13-1 Ivy), lost in the Sweet 16 of the NCAAs to Kentucky
Good Wins: Temple, Wisconsin, Alabama, Harvard x 2
Last Year RPI: 37
Starters Lost: 4
NOTES: Stop. Just stop. This is not a good opponent. Last year was lightning in a bottle because they had 1. A high quality coach, 2. A legitimate scoring threat who could take over the game, 3. A skilled 7-footer who was a weapon on offense and defense, and 4. A point guard who could control the game. All those things are gone. The Gophers will win by 40, and at the end of the season their RPI will be north of 200.
Dec 8 @ St. Joseph's
Record: 11-20 (5-11 A-10)
Good Wins: Dayton, Boston College
Last Year RPI: 180
Starters Lost: 2
NOTES: The only true road game on the non-conference slate, always a good sign of a challenging schedule, and it's against a team with an RPI of 180 last year who will probably be even worse. This is a truly horrible game, because nobody gives a crap if you win on the road against a team like this, but they are just good enough (and the Gophers are historically shaky enough on the road) to pull of an upset, which really hurts NCAA bid chances. I am interested in seeing C.J. Aiken, a freshman who Rivals ranks as the #8 incoming center in the country who is playing for the Hawks for some reason that I assume involves a lost bet or alcohol.
Dec 11 vs. Eastern Kentucky
Record: 20-13 (11-7 OVC)
Good Wins: Morgan State
Last Year RPI: 164
Starters Lost: 2
NOTES: They play Western, so might as well play Eastern, right? I don't know. A middling Ohio Valley team? They're more likely to be a 200+ in RPI than a sub-100, so I don't really like this. Should be an easy win though, so I guess they got that going for them. Since there aren't enough of those already.
Dec 15 vs. Akron
Record: 24-11 (12-4 MAC), lost in first round of CBI to Green Bay
Good Wins: Niagara
Last Year RPI: 95
Starters Lost: 3
NOTES: My first reaction was "Akron? Cool. They've been a bubble team recently." And then I realized that the days of Dru Joyce and Romeo Travis were actually five years or so ago, so they really aren't a dangerous team anymore (especially with losing their two best players to graduation). I mean, Akron always seems to be a nice team, and I don't hate them being on the schedule at all since they'll probably just be a low 100 RPI, but meh. Although maybe Lebron will show up. Did I tell you I'm a huge Miami Heat fan now?
So really, there's no reason the Gophers shouldn't be, at a minimum, 9-2 heading into Big Ten play. 8-3 would be bad but not a disaster, but if they go in any worse than that the season is basically already done. I don't think anybody realistically thinks they'll be more than a couple few games over .500 in Big Ten play, so a 7-4 non-conf record with that many cupcakes would make an NCAA bid a very tough road.
And it's really not that there are a ton of low-end games. At most they'll probably end up with two teams with sub-200 RPIs, but it's the lack of high-end games that is so disappointing. If everything breaks perfectly in the Puerto Rico Tip-Off they will end up having all of two marquee non-conference games - neither at home. Didn't you think we'd be seeing better in Tubby: Year IV? I did. Yeah, he's better than Monson (and thank god they didn't hire Molinari) and yes, we're seeing a better product and yes, they have indeed made the NCAA tournament two years in a row, so maybe it's my fault for wanting more.
Is it my fault? Am I alone here?
Nov 2 vs. Northeastern State, Nov 8 vs. Winona State - Whatever. Pass.
Nov 12 vs. Wofford College
Record: 26-9 (15-3 SoCon), lost in first round of NCAAs to Wisconsin
Good Wins: @ Georgia, South Carolina
Last Year RPI: 70
Starters Lost: 1 (
NOTES: A nice homecoming game for seniors Noah "The more successful" Dahlman and Cameron Rundles, the Terriers should be favorites to repeat in the SoCon and will probably be the Gophers biggest test outside of Puerto Rico. Even so, this is a slow team without the athletes needed to keep up, and should be the first in a long line of easy wins to open the season.
Nov 15 vs. Siena
Record: 27-7 (17-1 MAAC), lost in first round of NCAAs to Purdue
Good Wins: None
Last Year RPI: 33
Starters Lost: 3
NOTES: One of the hottest mid-major type teams the last few years, the Saints should take a step back this year with a lot to replace including Ronald Moore, the national assist leader, and Edwin Ubiles and Alex Franklin, their two leading scorers and all-around threats from the wing. Still, they do have some firepower back (Clarence Jackson is going to explode this year) and will probably be the second best team the Gophers will face - which still means they should be an easy win.
Nov 18 vs. Western Kentucky (in Puerto Rico)
Record: 21-13 (10-6 Sun Belt)
Good Wins: Vanderbilt, Murray State
Last Year RPI: 138
Starters Lost: 2
NOTES: Top player A.J. Slaughter is gone, but the Hilltoppers have a bit of a mini-mid-major dynasty going and reload their roster with a very good recruiting class this season. They are bringing in five new players, including SG Brandon Peters who ranks as Rivals #129 freshman and a couple other three star recruits, along with a couple of transfers from Big 12 schools (Oklahoma and OSU). It's probably good the Gophers get them early, because I have a feeling they are going to be a lot tougher by the end of the year.
Nov 19 vs. North Carolina (in Puerto Rico, assuming they beat WKU)
Record: 20-17 (5-11 ACC), lost in NIT Championship game to Dayton
Good Wins: Ohio State, Michigan State, Wake, Miss State
Last Year RPI: 64
Starters Lost: 2 (I think)
NOTES: It's hard to say how many starters the Tar Heels lost because they used so many lineups last season and never really were able to figure the team out until the NIT, but don't let the record fool you they have a ton of talent. Harrison Barnes is amazing, John Henson started to look like he figured it out late in the season, Reggie Bulluck should be awesome, and really it just goes on and on. Of course, I would have said basically the same thing last year, but I find it hard to believe UNC is going to be at that level back-to-back seasons.
Nov 21 vs. Vanderbilt or West Virginai (or Nebraska or Davidson)
NOTES: Most likely this will be either WVU or Vandy, and a win over either would be a challenge and a nice resume builder. I think if they manage to beat UNC I'd hope for a championship matchup with he Mountaineers in order to get the biggest scalp possible, but if they lose to the Heels I'd hope they go up against Vandy, which would still be a nice win but an easier win as well.
Nov 24 vs. North Dakota State
Record: 11-18 (8-10 Summit)
Good Wins: None
Last Year RPI: 267
Starters Lost: 3
NOTES: This is not the same scrappy, rough-and-tumble, senior white boy led squad from a couple of years ago. This is just a bad team. Look at that RPI. Now realize it's going to be about the same this year. Worthless game here, rather than giving a few third and fourth tier former Minnesota high school players a chance to play in the Barn. I guess I can see some value in that, and if this was the only game against an opponent like this, I wouldn't complain.
Nov 29 vs. Virginia (Big 10/ACC Challenge)
Record: 15-15 (5-11 ACC)
Good Wins: UAB, Georgia Tech
Last Year RPI: 123
Starters Lost: 2
NOTES: We get Virginia again the Challenge, which is a yawner, especially since their best and most exciting player, Sylvan Landesberg, got essentially booted off the team last year and is currently trying to hook on with an NBA squad. Still, Tony Bennett is already starting to pay dividends on the recruiting trail, bringing in a very good class including #30 in the country K.T. Harrell, #108 James Johnson, #119 Joe Harris, and #148 Will Regan. Wait. Holy crap that's a really good class. Virginia is on their way back to relevance (like, Harold Deane/Curtis Staples territory), and I'm now amending my previous statement and saying that THIS will be the toughest non-Puerto Rico game.
Dec 4 vs. Cornell
Record: 27-4 (13-1 Ivy), lost in the Sweet 16 of the NCAAs to Kentucky
Good Wins: Temple, Wisconsin, Alabama, Harvard x 2
Last Year RPI: 37
Starters Lost: 4
NOTES: Stop. Just stop. This is not a good opponent. Last year was lightning in a bottle because they had 1. A high quality coach, 2. A legitimate scoring threat who could take over the game, 3. A skilled 7-footer who was a weapon on offense and defense, and 4. A point guard who could control the game. All those things are gone. The Gophers will win by 40, and at the end of the season their RPI will be north of 200.
Dec 8 @ St. Joseph's
Record: 11-20 (5-11 A-10)
Good Wins: Dayton, Boston College
Last Year RPI: 180
Starters Lost: 2
NOTES: The only true road game on the non-conference slate, always a good sign of a challenging schedule, and it's against a team with an RPI of 180 last year who will probably be even worse. This is a truly horrible game, because nobody gives a crap if you win on the road against a team like this, but they are just good enough (and the Gophers are historically shaky enough on the road) to pull of an upset, which really hurts NCAA bid chances. I am interested in seeing C.J. Aiken, a freshman who Rivals ranks as the #8 incoming center in the country who is playing for the Hawks for some reason that I assume involves a lost bet or alcohol.
Dec 11 vs. Eastern Kentucky
Record: 20-13 (11-7 OVC)
Good Wins: Morgan State
Last Year RPI: 164
Starters Lost: 2
NOTES: They play Western, so might as well play Eastern, right? I don't know. A middling Ohio Valley team? They're more likely to be a 200+ in RPI than a sub-100, so I don't really like this. Should be an easy win though, so I guess they got that going for them. Since there aren't enough of those already.
Dec 15 vs. Akron
Record: 24-11 (12-4 MAC), lost in first round of CBI to Green Bay
Good Wins: Niagara
Last Year RPI: 95
Starters Lost: 3
NOTES: My first reaction was "Akron? Cool. They've been a bubble team recently." And then I realized that the days of Dru Joyce and Romeo Travis were actually five years or so ago, so they really aren't a dangerous team anymore (especially with losing their two best players to graduation). I mean, Akron always seems to be a nice team, and I don't hate them being on the schedule at all since they'll probably just be a low 100 RPI, but meh. Although maybe Lebron will show up. Did I tell you I'm a huge Miami Heat fan now?
So really, there's no reason the Gophers shouldn't be, at a minimum, 9-2 heading into Big Ten play. 8-3 would be bad but not a disaster, but if they go in any worse than that the season is basically already done. I don't think anybody realistically thinks they'll be more than a couple few games over .500 in Big Ten play, so a 7-4 non-conf record with that many cupcakes would make an NCAA bid a very tough road.
And it's really not that there are a ton of low-end games. At most they'll probably end up with two teams with sub-200 RPIs, but it's the lack of high-end games that is so disappointing. If everything breaks perfectly in the Puerto Rico Tip-Off they will end up having all of two marquee non-conference games - neither at home. Didn't you think we'd be seeing better in Tubby: Year IV? I did. Yeah, he's better than Monson (and thank god they didn't hire Molinari) and yes, we're seeing a better product and yes, they have indeed made the NCAA tournament two years in a row, so maybe it's my fault for wanting more.
Is it my fault? Am I alone here?
Monday, February 1, 2010
Week In Review: 2/1/2010
If you want a little Twins talk, make sure you check out my previous post about the top 100 MLB prospects according to ESPN, directly below this one. It's a lot more entertaining and uplifting than this garbage. Thank god the Gophers don't play again until Saturday. Pretty sure I'm just going to ignore them this week. Also the Reds signed Orlando Cabrera, so if you had your heart set on him playing third for the Twins you can go ahead and give up. You're also an idiot.
WHO WAS AWESOME
1. Charlotte. If the 49ers want an at-large bid into the NCAA Tournament they'll have to be nearly perfect in their A-10 season, and by perfect I mean don't lose any games to inferior teams and steal a bunch from the top of the conference - this week could be their blueprint. They got a shot at a top team coming to their place in Temple, and beat them 74-64, and then took to the road for a dangerous game at UMass but didn't fall into the trap, coming out a 72-58 winner. Charlotte now sits a top the conference, tied with Temple and Xavier at 6-1, and is 16-5 overall with wins now against Temple and Louisville on their resume. They now sit at #38 in the RPI, and things are looking good for their first bid since 2005.
2. Baylor The Bears have kind of been hovering under the radar, especially since they started 2-3 in Big 12 play, but it's time for them to make their run and it started on Saturday with a huge win over Texas in Austin. That 3-3 record is a bit deceiving because they've played three ranked teams already, and any team with wins at South Carolina and over Xavier on a neutral court is a team to be reckoned with. Throwout a bizarre loss at Colorado and this is a very impressive team. They lost to Kansas by just six in Lawrence and lost by just two to Kansas State and their only other loss was by three to Alabama in Orlando. Baylor now plays a string of unranked teams - 9 in a row, with only Missouri having a shot to be ranked at any point - before closing with Texas at home. Yep, the Bears are set up great to be dancing in March, although now the DWG Jinx probably guarantees that things are about to come crashing down.
3. Virginia. If you pay any attention to the ACC you'd know that the Cavs haven't been relevant since the days of Harold Deane and Curtis "The Curt-Man" Staples, but suddenly things are getting awfully interesting in Charlottesville, culminating in a huge 75-60 win over UNC in Chapel Hill. Yes, the Heels are probably having their worst year in, well, a very long time, but still the symbolism of winning in the Dean Dome has got to be huge for Virginia, not to mention they are suddenly 4-2 and just a half game behind Duke in the ACC. If they hadn't let their game against Virginia Tech, a game they led by 10 with 3:44 left, slip through their fingers they'd be the talk of the nation at 5-1. Their are too many bad losses, not enough signature wins, and an RPI over 100 right now, so we probably aren't looking at a tournament team or anything, but things are looking way, way, way up for UVA. Super stud Sylvan Landesberg is just a sophomore, and forward Mike Scott is just a junior, and both should be back (slight chance Landesberg does something dumb and goes into the draft). Add in a great recruiting class for next year and the fact that they have a guy named Mustapha Farrakhan, and it seems captain boring Tony Bennett has things moving in the right direction. All I know is I'm scared of a guy named Farrakhan, and I really want another Curtis Staples in my life. Fuck J.J. Redick.
4. Vanderbilt. Sure, they lost by 13 at Kentucky on Saturday, but that doens't discount a great, great win earlier in the week when they went into Tennessee and beat the Vols 85-76. That win brought the Commodores to 5-0 in the conference (now 5-1) and was their tenth straight win. Really a very good win over a fellow SEC title contender, with guard Jermaine Beal leading the way with 25 and four other players in double figures. Prior to the season I read some kind of preview that predicted Vandy as a sweet 16 team. I didn't buy it, because I don't believe in non-Derrick Byars Vanderbilt teams, especially when they're read by a big dopey white center. Maybe it's time to start believing. I think Journey would probably want it that way.
5. South Florida. The Bulls beat Seton Hall on Thursday, and, more impressively, Pitt on Sunday and this is special for a couple of reasons, outside of just being a pretty impressive couple of wins. First, I've always had a soft spot in my heart for USF because Snacks and I went and saw a game of theirs when we were kids and on a family vacation in St. Pete, back in the days of B.B. Walden and Alton Jackson. Second, the win over the Hall was the second in a row for the Bulls - the first time they have ever had consecutive wins since joining the Big East, and obviously the win over Pitt gives them three straight for the first time. They aren't going to be anywhere near the NCAA tournament, but could be a pretty good NIT team. Dominique Jones is a pretty incredible player who ranks in the top 3 in scoring, top 10 in assists, and top 25 in rebounding in the Big East and put up a line of 46-10-8 in their win over Providence last week and tossed up 37 in that win over Pitt. You know what, forget about all that Gopher vs. Wichita State in the NIT talk, I'm now hoping to get South Florida in the Barn.
WHO SUCKED
1. Gopher basketball. Well that was pretty damn disgusting. I mean seriously, have you ever seen anything so pathetic as that "effort" the Gophers put in on the defensive end? 73% for the first half and 63% overall - and the only reason it was as low as 63% is because the Buckeyes finally started missing shots as the game wound down after it was well in hand. And it wasn't just that Ohio State was crazy hot or anything, but that they could do anything they wanted at any time. Basically they could have just chose on any given possession - layup? Alley-oop? Wide open three? Wide open jump shot? It didn't matter, they were wide open anywhere and everywhere every single trip down the court.
I could try to write more, but what else is there to say, really? They got their asses whooped on talent, execution, and effort. No real point on digging any deeper than that. I could overlook a lot since I consider OSU a Final Four team, but this was too much for me. As Grandslam texted me, "this team will be lucky to be in invited to the NIT." I'm not quite ready to go that far (I think they're a lock for the NIT), but this was sickening on a number of levels, and there is A LOT that needs to change between now and next Saturday or they're going to lose to Penn State. This would actually be a great time to have a home game against like, SDSU on Wednesday, but they don't have anything except practice against each other. That ought to do wonders for their confidence on offense at least, since nobody plays any god damn defense on this team anyway.
2. UCONN. Just last week UCONN was looking like a major player after beating then #1 Texas, but this week was certainly a disaster. First they lost on the road at Providence, who isn't remotely a tournament team, despite having led by ten in the first half. They then followed that with a 2-point loss at home to Marquette on an incredible shot by Jimmy Butler with three seconds left - which followed Kemba Walker's airball from about 8 feet that would have given the Huskies the lead. UCONN probably doesn't have to worry much about making the tournament (currently a 5-seed according to Lunardi), but they can't exactly relax either, especially since these were two games they were supposed to win. At 3-5 in the Big East now, they have just four home games left (against six roadies) and suddenly a lot less margin for error. They're at Louisville tonight, that would be a pretty good start.
3. Duke. You know, I'm starting to think this Duke team isn't all that good, and is really overrated as a top ten team. They got absolutely smoked by Georgetown on Saturday, and the final score of 89-77 doesn't show remotely how thorough of an ass-whooping this was. The Blue Devils were completely beaten in every phase of the game, had no answer for Greg Monroe, and just overall played flat and uninspired ball - or maybe they just aren't that good. They're now 1-4 in road games this season, and have looked completely average in games against not just G-Town but NC State and Georgia Tech as well. It's a pretty simple formula, really, the Blue Devils have just three guys: Scheyer, Singler, and Nolan Smith. Shut them down, as Georgetown did (36% shooting, 8 turnovers), and you can beat them - there's nobody else here at all. No chance this team makes a run in March, look for a first or second round loss.
4. Conference USA. With Memphis down, and a number of teams "up", this was supposed to be the year of multiple bids for poor little CUSA. Memphis, UTEP, UAB, Houston, Tulsa, and Marshall were all supposed to be in play for a March bid. Well, things aren't looking good. This weekend Memphis lost to Southern Methodist and now have an RPI of 79 which is only that high becaus ethey've played a tough schedule - but beaten nobody. UAB, the best bet for an at-large, also lost to UTEP, and although their RPI is still at 27, they can't afford many more losses. Marshall lost to both Memphis and Houston, giving them four straight losses and droppin them completely out of the at-large conversation. Houston's been a complete failure, is just 11-9, and has an RPI of 141. Even Tulsa, at 6-1, is nowhere near a sure thing despite doing nothing really wrong, but they haven't done anything great either and are borderline as you can get at an RPI of 58. Forget about a whole bunch of bids, C-USA will have to happy if they get two at this point. Memphis, UTEP, UAB, and Tulsa are still alive, and it's going to come down to ever takes care of the others. If nobody separates themself, we're looking at a one-bid league once again, and it's probably just time to shut 'er down.
Actually, this might be a good time for the Gophers to leave the Big Ten so it can get back to just ten teams, and join C-USA. At least they could compete.
5. Gopher basketball. God dammit that was pathetic. How do you just let The Werewolf get to the rim any time he wants? How do you let Dallas Lauderdale get three dunks? Why can't Devoe Joseph play defense? Why does a great "little things" player like Damian Johnson make so many dumb mistakes on the little things? Why can Ohio State find Diebler for wide open shots over and over again, but the Gophers couldn't find Hoffarber if they were playing against Gimli and a bunch of hobbits? Is anybody else as frustrated as I am? Wasn't this supposed to be a big year? Wasn't a NCAA berth to be expected, and the minimum this year? I swear I'm going to move to some other state and buy season tickets to the closest college and just shift my allegiances, nothing can be worse than this. Seriously, I just don't know what to do. This is a picture of me that Mrs. W snapped last night after the game:
WHO WAS AWESOME
1. Charlotte. If the 49ers want an at-large bid into the NCAA Tournament they'll have to be nearly perfect in their A-10 season, and by perfect I mean don't lose any games to inferior teams and steal a bunch from the top of the conference - this week could be their blueprint. They got a shot at a top team coming to their place in Temple, and beat them 74-64, and then took to the road for a dangerous game at UMass but didn't fall into the trap, coming out a 72-58 winner. Charlotte now sits a top the conference, tied with Temple and Xavier at 6-1, and is 16-5 overall with wins now against Temple and Louisville on their resume. They now sit at #38 in the RPI, and things are looking good for their first bid since 2005.
2. Baylor The Bears have kind of been hovering under the radar, especially since they started 2-3 in Big 12 play, but it's time for them to make their run and it started on Saturday with a huge win over Texas in Austin. That 3-3 record is a bit deceiving because they've played three ranked teams already, and any team with wins at South Carolina and over Xavier on a neutral court is a team to be reckoned with. Throwout a bizarre loss at Colorado and this is a very impressive team. They lost to Kansas by just six in Lawrence and lost by just two to Kansas State and their only other loss was by three to Alabama in Orlando. Baylor now plays a string of unranked teams - 9 in a row, with only Missouri having a shot to be ranked at any point - before closing with Texas at home. Yep, the Bears are set up great to be dancing in March, although now the DWG Jinx probably guarantees that things are about to come crashing down.
3. Virginia. If you pay any attention to the ACC you'd know that the Cavs haven't been relevant since the days of Harold Deane and Curtis "The Curt-Man" Staples, but suddenly things are getting awfully interesting in Charlottesville, culminating in a huge 75-60 win over UNC in Chapel Hill. Yes, the Heels are probably having their worst year in, well, a very long time, but still the symbolism of winning in the Dean Dome has got to be huge for Virginia, not to mention they are suddenly 4-2 and just a half game behind Duke in the ACC. If they hadn't let their game against Virginia Tech, a game they led by 10 with 3:44 left, slip through their fingers they'd be the talk of the nation at 5-1. Their are too many bad losses, not enough signature wins, and an RPI over 100 right now, so we probably aren't looking at a tournament team or anything, but things are looking way, way, way up for UVA. Super stud Sylvan Landesberg is just a sophomore, and forward Mike Scott is just a junior, and both should be back (slight chance Landesberg does something dumb and goes into the draft). Add in a great recruiting class for next year and the fact that they have a guy named Mustapha Farrakhan, and it seems captain boring Tony Bennett has things moving in the right direction. All I know is I'm scared of a guy named Farrakhan, and I really want another Curtis Staples in my life. Fuck J.J. Redick.
4. Vanderbilt. Sure, they lost by 13 at Kentucky on Saturday, but that doens't discount a great, great win earlier in the week when they went into Tennessee and beat the Vols 85-76. That win brought the Commodores to 5-0 in the conference (now 5-1) and was their tenth straight win. Really a very good win over a fellow SEC title contender, with guard Jermaine Beal leading the way with 25 and four other players in double figures. Prior to the season I read some kind of preview that predicted Vandy as a sweet 16 team. I didn't buy it, because I don't believe in non-Derrick Byars Vanderbilt teams, especially when they're read by a big dopey white center. Maybe it's time to start believing. I think Journey would probably want it that way.
5. South Florida. The Bulls beat Seton Hall on Thursday, and, more impressively, Pitt on Sunday and this is special for a couple of reasons, outside of just being a pretty impressive couple of wins. First, I've always had a soft spot in my heart for USF because Snacks and I went and saw a game of theirs when we were kids and on a family vacation in St. Pete, back in the days of B.B. Walden and Alton Jackson. Second, the win over the Hall was the second in a row for the Bulls - the first time they have ever had consecutive wins since joining the Big East, and obviously the win over Pitt gives them three straight for the first time. They aren't going to be anywhere near the NCAA tournament, but could be a pretty good NIT team. Dominique Jones is a pretty incredible player who ranks in the top 3 in scoring, top 10 in assists, and top 25 in rebounding in the Big East and put up a line of 46-10-8 in their win over Providence last week and tossed up 37 in that win over Pitt. You know what, forget about all that Gopher vs. Wichita State in the NIT talk, I'm now hoping to get South Florida in the Barn.
WHO SUCKED
1. Gopher basketball. Well that was pretty damn disgusting. I mean seriously, have you ever seen anything so pathetic as that "effort" the Gophers put in on the defensive end? 73% for the first half and 63% overall - and the only reason it was as low as 63% is because the Buckeyes finally started missing shots as the game wound down after it was well in hand. And it wasn't just that Ohio State was crazy hot or anything, but that they could do anything they wanted at any time. Basically they could have just chose on any given possession - layup? Alley-oop? Wide open three? Wide open jump shot? It didn't matter, they were wide open anywhere and everywhere every single trip down the court.
I could try to write more, but what else is there to say, really? They got their asses whooped on talent, execution, and effort. No real point on digging any deeper than that. I could overlook a lot since I consider OSU a Final Four team, but this was too much for me. As Grandslam texted me, "this team will be lucky to be in invited to the NIT." I'm not quite ready to go that far (I think they're a lock for the NIT), but this was sickening on a number of levels, and there is A LOT that needs to change between now and next Saturday or they're going to lose to Penn State. This would actually be a great time to have a home game against like, SDSU on Wednesday, but they don't have anything except practice against each other. That ought to do wonders for their confidence on offense at least, since nobody plays any god damn defense on this team anyway.
2. UCONN. Just last week UCONN was looking like a major player after beating then #1 Texas, but this week was certainly a disaster. First they lost on the road at Providence, who isn't remotely a tournament team, despite having led by ten in the first half. They then followed that with a 2-point loss at home to Marquette on an incredible shot by Jimmy Butler with three seconds left - which followed Kemba Walker's airball from about 8 feet that would have given the Huskies the lead. UCONN probably doesn't have to worry much about making the tournament (currently a 5-seed according to Lunardi), but they can't exactly relax either, especially since these were two games they were supposed to win. At 3-5 in the Big East now, they have just four home games left (against six roadies) and suddenly a lot less margin for error. They're at Louisville tonight, that would be a pretty good start.
3. Duke. You know, I'm starting to think this Duke team isn't all that good, and is really overrated as a top ten team. They got absolutely smoked by Georgetown on Saturday, and the final score of 89-77 doesn't show remotely how thorough of an ass-whooping this was. The Blue Devils were completely beaten in every phase of the game, had no answer for Greg Monroe, and just overall played flat and uninspired ball - or maybe they just aren't that good. They're now 1-4 in road games this season, and have looked completely average in games against not just G-Town but NC State and Georgia Tech as well. It's a pretty simple formula, really, the Blue Devils have just three guys: Scheyer, Singler, and Nolan Smith. Shut them down, as Georgetown did (36% shooting, 8 turnovers), and you can beat them - there's nobody else here at all. No chance this team makes a run in March, look for a first or second round loss.
4. Conference USA. With Memphis down, and a number of teams "up", this was supposed to be the year of multiple bids for poor little CUSA. Memphis, UTEP, UAB, Houston, Tulsa, and Marshall were all supposed to be in play for a March bid. Well, things aren't looking good. This weekend Memphis lost to Southern Methodist and now have an RPI of 79 which is only that high becaus ethey've played a tough schedule - but beaten nobody. UAB, the best bet for an at-large, also lost to UTEP, and although their RPI is still at 27, they can't afford many more losses. Marshall lost to both Memphis and Houston, giving them four straight losses and droppin them completely out of the at-large conversation. Houston's been a complete failure, is just 11-9, and has an RPI of 141. Even Tulsa, at 6-1, is nowhere near a sure thing despite doing nothing really wrong, but they haven't done anything great either and are borderline as you can get at an RPI of 58. Forget about a whole bunch of bids, C-USA will have to happy if they get two at this point. Memphis, UTEP, UAB, and Tulsa are still alive, and it's going to come down to ever takes care of the others. If nobody separates themself, we're looking at a one-bid league once again, and it's probably just time to shut 'er down.
Actually, this might be a good time for the Gophers to leave the Big Ten so it can get back to just ten teams, and join C-USA. At least they could compete.
5. Gopher basketball. God dammit that was pathetic. How do you just let The Werewolf get to the rim any time he wants? How do you let Dallas Lauderdale get three dunks? Why can't Devoe Joseph play defense? Why does a great "little things" player like Damian Johnson make so many dumb mistakes on the little things? Why can Ohio State find Diebler for wide open shots over and over again, but the Gophers couldn't find Hoffarber if they were playing against Gimli and a bunch of hobbits? Is anybody else as frustrated as I am? Wasn't this supposed to be a big year? Wasn't a NCAA berth to be expected, and the minimum this year? I swear I'm going to move to some other state and buy season tickets to the closest college and just shift my allegiances, nothing can be worse than this. Seriously, I just don't know what to do. This is a picture of me that Mrs. W snapped last night after the game:
Please help.
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