Well I couldn't have read that Wisconsin/Baylor game any worse. I expected Frank Kaminsky to get killed, but instead he did the killing. It was like watching The Others and being like, man this is way creepy poor Nicole Kidman but then bam it turns out Nicole Kidman is dead the whole time. Oh, spoiler alert. Anyway thanks to Florida coming through, a couple over/unders, and hitting two middles with second half bets I overcame the big Baylor loss and made a little bit of money. Hopefully there's more to come tonight.
#11 Tennessee vs. #2 Michigan.
Advanced metrics absolutely love Tennessee. They rank 16th in offensive points per possession and 17th in defensive points per possession. The only other teams to rank in the top 20 in both this year are Wichita State, Florida, Virginia, and Louisville. That's a pretty damn impressive group. However I think this is a classic case of beating up on bad teams. The Vols have a win over Virginia back in December, but do you know their next best win? That win over a fading Iowa team. Next up? A win over a fading and overseeded UMass. Then Georgia, LSU, and Arkansas. See what I'm saying? Yeah they've won three games to get here and that's impressive, but I am not loving them.
Michigan, on the other hand, seems to be peaking at the right time. They destroyed both Wofford and Texas and everybody's clicking. Tennessee has overwhelmed their opponents with their size and rebounding so far, but that won't happen against Michigan. Jordan Morgan and Jon Horford might suck offensively but they can play defense. From there I think Michigan's perimeter guys can out score Tennessee's. I just think Michigan is a far superior team, so I'm going with Michigan -2 for four units
#7 UCONN vs. #3 Iowa State.
The loss of Georges Niang didn't hurt Iowa State against North Carolina, but it very well could against UCONN. Without him the Cyclones are very small, and although Melvin Ejim and Dustin Hogue play bigger than their size would suggest I'm not so sure that gets it done against a more rough and tumble former Big East team. It will also allow UCONN to go small with what is probably their best lineup, and one they have only been able to use about 5% of the time over the last 5 games because they generally need to have either Amida Brimah or Phillip Nolan in there at center for extra size. That's not really a concern against a Niang-less Iowa State, and Brimah's foul issues become much less important.
Then of course there's the whole Kemba Walker thing Shabazz Napier has going on right now. He's put up 24-8-6 against St. Joe's and 25-5-3 against Villanova despite missing a huge chunk of the first half. And man did you see some of those shots against Nova? Right now he's fearless and he's hot, and that is a dangerous combination to run up against. DeAndre Daniels seems to be peaking at the right time, and Ryan Boatright played as well as I've ever seen him play against Villanova. It wouldn't shock me to see this team make the Final Four. Sorry Clones. UCONN +2 for 3 units, and also a unit on the over 146 - ISU likes to get up and down, and I expect UCONN to get in the spirit.
#8 Kentucky vs. #4 Louisville.
Easily my most anticipated match-up of the weekend, and also the hardest to read for me. Before the tournament started I would have gone with Louisville -4.5 without hesitation, but Kentucky's win over Wichita was one of the most impressive top to bottom games I've seen anybody play this year. Everyone said at the beginning of the year that Kentucky was the most talented team in the country and if their talent came together they'd be the team to beat in the tournament, and that is still the case with at least five guys who are likely to be NBA first round picks in either this year's draft or the next. So that's the question, has this team now come together enough to beat the defending champs who, with the exception of the Manhattan game, have been rolling?
Well, it was just the sixth time this year a team scored 70+ against Wichita, and Kentucky shot 54% while doing it so they played pretty much a perfect shooting game on the offensive end. With Andrew Harrison's six turnovers and a total of 11 for the Wildcats vs. just 11 assists that tells me they didn't suddenly "get it" and considering six of those assists came from Julius Randle it's pretty clear the Kentucky guards still don't really know how to run a team. Another big piece of Kentucky's win was their 22 offensive rebounds, but the presence of Montrezl Harrell for Louisville should guarantee that at a minimum that number is cut in half, and the rest of Louisville's guys should be able to keep Kentucky off the boards better than Wichita did. Plus when it comes down to Calipari vs. Pitino with almost a week to prepare, I'll take Pitino every time. Louisville -4.5 for one unit and another unit on the over 139. Louisville tries to speed teams up and that should work beautifully against Kentucky.
#4 Michigan State vs. #1 Virginia.
People really seem to underrate Virginia this year, but a 16-2 run through the ACC, an ACC Tournament Championship, and a thorough thrashing of Memphis (with a mini scare against Coastal thrown in there) is one hell of a run. They've mainly done it with an incredible defense and a slow pace that left them allowing the fewest points per game in the country at 55.5. They also score at an efficient rate, a top 10 in the country rate, although they don't shoot the ball particularly well and can be prone to shooting slumps.
The Spartans should be able to handle them, however, because they're one of the best shooting teams in the country (13th by eFG%) and the execute extremely well and move the ball well (62% of baskets come from an assist, also 13th). I tried to find teams that have a similar profile that Virginia played this year and the closest two I could find were Duke and Wisconsin, team's that gave Virginia two of its six losses this year, and Michigan State is both a better rebounding and defensive team than either Duke or Virginia. Plus the Spartans put up those impressive numbers while rarely being healthy, and now they are. The pace shouldn't bother Sparty either, they can grind it out with the best of them. One unit on Michigan State -2, and two units on the under 127.
Showing posts with label Predictions. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Predictions. Show all posts
Friday, March 28, 2014
Wednesday, March 26, 2014
Sweet 16 Thoughts - Thursday
So far things in the NCAA Tournament have gone pretty close to what I expected. All my Final Four teams are still alive (Florida, Louisville, Arizona, Michigan State - and yes I know that's a pretty popular combination), and I called Kansas going out early. My only real misses were believing in Creighton (or maybe not believing in Baylor), believing in Duke despite knowing how horrible their defense was (I have no idea why I didn't take Michigan here), and thinking Syracuse had figured out their issues. Overall, my bracket still has a chance to win, so thank you for asking. Anyway, here's what's happening on Thursday:
#11 Dayton vs. #10 Stanford.
There are many great looking games that will be played this weekend, and this game will also be played. There isn't a lot of shine to it because even though both teams are underdogs neither team is very sexy. Stanford is nerds and Dayton is Dayton. Although Dayton looks like the more athletic team with guys like Sibert, Sanford, and Pierre who can kind of do a little of everything, Stanford has not just size but skilled size in Dwight Powell and Stefan Nastic, as well as Josh Huestis who seems to play big.
It should be a close game, but unfortunately for lose who were hoping to experience a little schadenfreude at the expense of Reid Travis with Johnny Dawkins flaming out and getting fired (which clearly isn't happening now), I think he gets another big win. I'm on Stanford here laying the three.
#6 Baylor vs. #2 Wisconsin.
I know Scott Drew is a horrible coach. I know it all the way to the bottom of my tiny black heart, but I'm not so sure Bo Ryan is that much better, at least this year and Baylor is absolutely clicking at the right time. More than that, how the hell is Wisconsin going to deal with Baylor's size and athleticism? Cory Jefferson is what Nigel Hayes hopes to be in four years and he's having a great run to end his career. Isaiah Austin seems to finally be getting it, Rico Gathers is a rebounding machine, and the wings are Royce O'Neale and Taurean Prince who are 6-6 and 6-7. Frank Kaminsky might actually get killed. You realize Duje Dukan will likely have to be prominently involved here?
Wisconsin's only chance is if Scott Drew plays a zone, which is actually Baylor's preferred, and they get hot. Drew is dumb enough to do it, but even if he does their size might bother Wisconsin enough so it actually works. This is still my biggest bet of the weekend at five units to cover three and a half and another unit on the moneyline. Also taking the under 137 for a unit, as I think Wisconsin is going to play slower and hope Baylor is dumb enough to not be able to guard. Also possible.
#4 UCLA vs. #1 Florida.
Florida was my pick to win a couple months ago and still is, and I realize that's not really going out on a limb but I just can't find any weaknesses here. They have the second best defense in the country (on a per possession basis) behind Arizona and a top 20 offense as well. They have senior leadership that seems to count in March and excellent guard play with the SEC player of the year in Scottie Wilbekin. They have five guys who can have a blow up game so if anybody is off (maybe outside Wilbekin if we're talking things beyond shooting) oh well just move on to the next guy.
I like UCLA a lot and Kyle Anderson is one of my favorite players and if Zach LaVine and Norman Powell are clicking those three and Jordan Adams form a damn good four pack, but LaVine has been horrible lately. For UCLA to win you're going to be counting on the Wear twins and Tony Parker to check Florida's group of tight end looking guys who can come at you in waves. No chance. Florida -4.5 for three units. I also think there's a decent chance this goes over the 137 because UCLA likes to run and Florida can run with anybody, but I can also see a repeat of their game against Pitt where the Bruins can't score and the Gators just grind clock. Pass for now, but I'm sure I'll do something with it prior to tip because I'm an action junkie.
#4 San Diego State vs. #1 Arizona.
This has not been a kind tournament to defensive minded teams who are limited offensively - Kansas State, Ohio State, Cincinnati, and St. Louis are all gone. San Diego State fits that mold as well with one difference - Xavier Thames. You could try to make a similar argument in favor of Cincy and Sean Kilpatrick, but where it always seems like Kilpatrick has to struggle to score, Thames seems to do it much more effortlessly. I know that kind of sounds stupid since Kilpatrick averaged over 20 points per game this year, but I managed to watch a lot of Cincy and see SDSU a few times and it's just an impression I got, I can't really back it up. Just trust me I'm much smarter than you.
Yes, the Wildcats have the #1 point-per-possession defense in the field, and it's because they force opponents to take jump shots and pack the paint to take away almost anything driving to the rim. Well, Thames doesn't drive - he's taken only 17% of his shots this year at the rim but hits 40% on both two point and three point jumpers. Arizona is basically going to be daring an excellent jump shooter to shoot jump shots. I don't think that will be enough for the Aztecs to pull off an upset, but with that dynamic and a really, really good defense I expect this to be close. I know Arizona beat SDSU by 9 in San Diego earlier this year, but Arizona had Brandon Ashley in that game and SDSU didn't have Dwayne Polee so I'm on SDSU getting seven for two units. I also expect a real grind it out game, but the 122 is too low a number for me since it's a tournament game I figure to be close which could result in a lot of fouls, especially since my perception is in an elimination game losing teams continue to foul longer than they normally would. Instead I'm throwing two units on the first half line, under 55.5.
#11 Dayton vs. #10 Stanford.
There are many great looking games that will be played this weekend, and this game will also be played. There isn't a lot of shine to it because even though both teams are underdogs neither team is very sexy. Stanford is nerds and Dayton is Dayton. Although Dayton looks like the more athletic team with guys like Sibert, Sanford, and Pierre who can kind of do a little of everything, Stanford has not just size but skilled size in Dwight Powell and Stefan Nastic, as well as Josh Huestis who seems to play big.
It should be a close game, but unfortunately for lose who were hoping to experience a little schadenfreude at the expense of Reid Travis with Johnny Dawkins flaming out and getting fired (which clearly isn't happening now), I think he gets another big win. I'm on Stanford here laying the three.
#6 Baylor vs. #2 Wisconsin.
I know Scott Drew is a horrible coach. I know it all the way to the bottom of my tiny black heart, but I'm not so sure Bo Ryan is that much better, at least this year and Baylor is absolutely clicking at the right time. More than that, how the hell is Wisconsin going to deal with Baylor's size and athleticism? Cory Jefferson is what Nigel Hayes hopes to be in four years and he's having a great run to end his career. Isaiah Austin seems to finally be getting it, Rico Gathers is a rebounding machine, and the wings are Royce O'Neale and Taurean Prince who are 6-6 and 6-7. Frank Kaminsky might actually get killed. You realize Duje Dukan will likely have to be prominently involved here?
Wisconsin's only chance is if Scott Drew plays a zone, which is actually Baylor's preferred, and they get hot. Drew is dumb enough to do it, but even if he does their size might bother Wisconsin enough so it actually works. This is still my biggest bet of the weekend at five units to cover three and a half and another unit on the moneyline. Also taking the under 137 for a unit, as I think Wisconsin is going to play slower and hope Baylor is dumb enough to not be able to guard. Also possible.
#4 UCLA vs. #1 Florida.
Florida was my pick to win a couple months ago and still is, and I realize that's not really going out on a limb but I just can't find any weaknesses here. They have the second best defense in the country (on a per possession basis) behind Arizona and a top 20 offense as well. They have senior leadership that seems to count in March and excellent guard play with the SEC player of the year in Scottie Wilbekin. They have five guys who can have a blow up game so if anybody is off (maybe outside Wilbekin if we're talking things beyond shooting) oh well just move on to the next guy.
I like UCLA a lot and Kyle Anderson is one of my favorite players and if Zach LaVine and Norman Powell are clicking those three and Jordan Adams form a damn good four pack, but LaVine has been horrible lately. For UCLA to win you're going to be counting on the Wear twins and Tony Parker to check Florida's group of tight end looking guys who can come at you in waves. No chance. Florida -4.5 for three units. I also think there's a decent chance this goes over the 137 because UCLA likes to run and Florida can run with anybody, but I can also see a repeat of their game against Pitt where the Bruins can't score and the Gators just grind clock. Pass for now, but I'm sure I'll do something with it prior to tip because I'm an action junkie.
#4 San Diego State vs. #1 Arizona.
This has not been a kind tournament to defensive minded teams who are limited offensively - Kansas State, Ohio State, Cincinnati, and St. Louis are all gone. San Diego State fits that mold as well with one difference - Xavier Thames. You could try to make a similar argument in favor of Cincy and Sean Kilpatrick, but where it always seems like Kilpatrick has to struggle to score, Thames seems to do it much more effortlessly. I know that kind of sounds stupid since Kilpatrick averaged over 20 points per game this year, but I managed to watch a lot of Cincy and see SDSU a few times and it's just an impression I got, I can't really back it up. Just trust me I'm much smarter than you.
Yes, the Wildcats have the #1 point-per-possession defense in the field, and it's because they force opponents to take jump shots and pack the paint to take away almost anything driving to the rim. Well, Thames doesn't drive - he's taken only 17% of his shots this year at the rim but hits 40% on both two point and three point jumpers. Arizona is basically going to be daring an excellent jump shooter to shoot jump shots. I don't think that will be enough for the Aztecs to pull off an upset, but with that dynamic and a really, really good defense I expect this to be close. I know Arizona beat SDSU by 9 in San Diego earlier this year, but Arizona had Brandon Ashley in that game and SDSU didn't have Dwayne Polee so I'm on SDSU getting seven for two units. I also expect a real grind it out game, but the 122 is too low a number for me since it's a tournament game I figure to be close which could result in a lot of fouls, especially since my perception is in an elimination game losing teams continue to foul longer than they normally would. Instead I'm throwing two units on the first half line, under 55.5.
Thursday, April 12, 2012
American League Preview
Now that the constant threat of legal action has died down (go to this post and scroll down to the comments) and my big presentation at work went off without a hitch today (which had me working 12+ hours both the last two days, which would be why I haven't put up any posts) I have decided to buck up, toughen up, and get through it and give you people the American League preview you so richly deserve - mostly because I said I'd have it up something like a week ago.
Now yes, there have been some games played and you could say I am cheating, but I swear to you I already have the teams written down in order and I promise I won't change it. You'll just have to believe me, but I'm telling the truth or I'm not a Schilling's uncle.
AMERICAN LEAGUE EAST
1. NEW YORK YANKEES. This team is getting older than dirt, or is already older than dirt with Brett Gardner and Robinson Cano the only starters under 30 and nobody under 28, but I think they have one more run in them, particularly with a revamped pitching staff. Of course, the Michael Pineda thing is a bit troubling since he was so freaking good last year and I'm all confused about how bad he could have been this Spring to fall out of the rotation, but even if somehow the probably best rookie pitcher of our generation is out of commission or goes all Joe Charboneau just adding Kuroda and Hughes to that rotation is a major upgrade. Of course, any or all of Jeter, A-Rod, Rivera, or Ibanez could suddenly be done, Granderson and the whole bullpen are probably due to regress, and Texeira has been trending downward. They could conceivably fall off a cliff this year, but I don't think that happens until next season.
2. TAMPA RAYS. Wade Davis didn't make the Rays rotation, and would be the unquestioned ace of the Twins. Alex Cobb didn't make the roster, and he'd be considered a future ace for the Twins. So yeah, pitching-pitching-pitching. It's the way to win, but the Rays do it better than anybody else and can also acquire a lot of great young talent in the lineup. Add to that a front office who recognizes the team's needs and knows how to go and get what they need on the cheap and that's how Tampa can contend in the AL East despite a minuscule payroll (for the division). Need some left-handed power? Sign Carlos Pena (1 yr/$7M). Looking for a utility infielder with a specific skill (crushing lefties)? Sign Jeff Keppinger (1 yr/$1.5M and a far, far, far better signing than Jayme Carroll). Luke Scott, Jose Molina, Fernando Rodney, and even Kyle Farnsworth fit that same type of mold. I don't want to just go ahead and give out virtual HJs here, but the Rays ability to both find, draft, and develop talent along with their free agent acumen should be what every GM studies.
3. BOSTON RED SOX. There are a million reasons to not believe in the Red Sox this year, and none of them have to do with friend chicken or beer which is the stupidest, media-drivenest story since the supposed Moon Landing (YOU CAN SEE THE FLAG WAVE IN THE BREEZE PEOPLE!). You can look at the rotation where starter #3 is talented but injury-plauged Clay Buchholz, #4 is a converted middle reliever (Daniel Bard), and #5 is some dude nobody's ever heard of. Or you can look at the bullpen, where Alfredo Aceves, a jack of all trades type, is being pushed into closing. Or you can take a look at the lineup and see mediocrity in an awful lot of spots (Cody Ross, Ryan Sweeney, Mike Aviles, and Jarrod Saltalamacchia) and really, this Sox team just isn't very good, and might finish as low as fourth. My favorite part is how they traded both their starting shortstop (Marco Scutaro) and back-up and up-and-comer (Jed Lowrie) to get a middle of the road prospect and a middle reliever and are now stuck with Aviles until Jose Iglesias is ready, which may never happen because he can't hit (.235 with a grand total of 10 extra-base hits at AAA last year). And thank god. The Red Sox can go back to sucking in a hurry please, I'm sick of the bandwagon douche-tards.
4. TORONTO BLUE JAYS. In any other division I'd be calling the BJs (ha ha BJ) my sleeper team and singing their praises, but the AL East just isn't fair, no matter what the Jays do. They have two guys who could jump up into Cy Young territory and it wouldn't shock me in Ricky Romero and Brandon Morrow, a future young stud pitcher in Kyle Drabek, the biggest home run hitter in the game today in Jose Bautista, and a lot of good young talent around him (Brett Lawrie, J.P. Arencibia, Yunel Escobar) with some reclamation cases in Colby Rasmus and Adam Lind who, if they get it turned around, could decide this thing. I love this team. If they can find a good trade for Adam Snider (say, an SP or a decent reliever, maybe a 2b or lf) they could jump up and finish in third. Seriously it's totally not fair to be in this division. It's like Hitler or something.
5. BALTIMORE ORIOLES. I can't decide if I think the Orioles are finally moving down the right path or if they're perpetually effed, because right as Adam Jones, Matt Wieters, Nick Markakis, and Robert Andino are starting to come into their own and mesh with J.J. Hardy and Mark Reynolds to give the O's a good offense their pitching consists of mediocre prospects, failed prospects, mediocre journeymen, and a bullpen full of castoffs. Plus their current 1B, Chris Davis, is one of the only players around who can match Mark Reynolds (the O's 3B) when it comes to striking out only he comes without all the hitting and stuff. Same shitty fielding though.
AMERICAN LEAGUE CENTRAL
1. DETROIT TIGERS. Do you remember there ever being a more prohibitive favorite in any division ever? I'm sure it's happened, but I can't recall anything off the top of my head. That lineup is absolutely loaded and they have Justin Verlander and that's all you need in the central. I like how people are all like "their defense is terrible" and "after Verlander there are too many questions in the rotation" and "no way Valverde can go 49-49 again." None of that even matters. As long as Valverde is competent and the rest of the rotation approaches average this team will win 90 games, which is all it will take in the central this year. If they want to contend for the World Series they'll need to do more than that and somebody like Fister or Scherzer will need to take a nice little leap forward, but they can sleepwalk to the central crown.
2. CLEVELAND INDIANS. Their contending status took a bit of a hit when Grady Sizemore hit the 60-day DL (SHOCKER!), and struggling prospect Matt LaPorta and promising prospect Lonnie Chisenhall were both sent to the minors, but both will be back soon since they're both crushing AAA pitching so far and you'd have to be an idiot to depend on Sizemore, so I think they'll be just fine. Outside of SP Justin Masterson, SS Asdrubel Cabrera, and C Carlos Santana it's really a pretty mediocre team unless Ubaldo gets back to his unhittable form which is pretty unlikely at this point, but luckily for them the AL Central is still the NFC West of the baseballers so they look good for second, and being something like 10 games out of that second wild card spot.
3. KANSAS CITY ROYALS. Not yet. Not quite yet. The pitching is quite there yet to keep pace with the hitters, because pretty much the hitting has arrived. Gordon-Cain-Moustakas-Hosmer-Butler are all the future and are all primed to have big years. On the pitching side, the Sanchez trade was the right move, Hochevar needs (and gets) another shot, and Duffy, Mendoza, Collins, and Crow are the future, I just don't know if they're the present. The loss of Soria is a killer, not necessarily because of his closing ability, but because he'd be a huge chip for them to trade in order to acquire a top line starter because that's what they need and either Collins or Crow could close with little issue, particularly Collins because I think, and I could be remembering wrong, that Crow could/should be a starter down the line. Things are progressing in Kansas City. They need to break .500 this year and then improve the starting pitching for next year and they could make a playoff run. Anything less and this whole rebuilding process was a waste of time and I'll burn my KC hat.
4. MINNESOTA TWINS. If Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau get back to normal it's conceivable the Twins could get up to second here, but there is a zero percent chance they can possibly win the division with that pitching staff, especially with Moon Shot Scott out for the year. I don't know what's more embarrassing, trotting out a rotation of Liriano-Pavano-Marquis-Blackburn-Swarzak, or hoping/waiting/expecting, for the 25th year in a row, that Francisco Liriano is going to become an ace. Did you know his career ERA+ is 100, meaning in his career based on ERA he's been completely average? And that includes that insane 2006, which gives you an idea of how awful he's been since then. FUN FACT: Since 2009, seventeen pitchers have given up at least 215 hits in a year in a season in which they struck out less than 115 batters as well - three of them (Nick Blackburn, Jason Marquis, and Carl Pavano). They also have 2 of the last 3 league leaders in hits allowed (Blackburn 2009, Pavano 2011). All this AND Matt Capps as your closer? We're truly blessed.
5. CHICAGO WHITE SOX. Trainwreck city and I'm going to enjoy every minute of it. They have the shitty contracts (Adam Dunn - 3 yrs, $44 million left, Alex Rios 3 yrs, $35 mill left, John Danks - 5 yrs, $65 million and signed this offseason for some strange reason), the broken farm system (ranked 30 out of 30 by Keith Law and he says "they aren't particularly close to 29"), a mid-tier pick + only one supplemental pick in the upcoming draft, and their best player is 36 years old, and their "young" up and coming infield is made up of three guys who each hit worse than the league average last year. Their only decent asset which might net them any prospects is Jake Peavy, but he's only got one year left on his deal and he's making $22 million in that year. He's going to have to pitch almost exactly like the Peavy of old to get any interest, and I still don't know if anybody would be willing to pay that kind of money plus give up decent prospects. Basically they have no young future stars, no contract flexibility, and no way to add prospects. Freaking awesome. I love it.
AMERICAN LEAGUE WEST
1. LOS ANGELES ANGELS. Have you looked at this pitching staff? Jered Weaver, Dan Haren, and C.J. Wilson? Their #4 is Ervin Santana, whose ERA last year was 3.38 which, by the by, is better than any Twins' pitcher has had since 2007 and if you don't count Johan Santana it's better than any Twins' pitcher since Joe Mays in 2001. And he's there #4. Oh, and in case you missed it they also signed Albert Pujols, the best hitter of this generation. It's a bit of a negative that their three best hitters all play the same position, their infield is full of mediocrity, and two of their starting outfielders are overpaid and semi-washed up, but would you look at that pitching? I'd look again but I'm already spent.
2. TEXAS RANGERS. Well they lost C.J. Wilson and that's a negative, and overall there are a lot of questions with the pitching. Can Neftali Feliz transition into a starter's role after being a shutdown closer? Why would a contending team even consider installing Joe Nathan as their closer? What happened to Alexi Ogando at the end of last year? What really happened at the Alamo? Will Yu Darvish be more Hideo Nomo (when he was good) or more Hideki Irabu? Can a team with Derek Holland and Colby Lewis at the top of the rotation win anything? I don't know, but what I do know is that just writing a bunch of questions without answering them is really lazy writing, and I don't want to do that, so their lineup is really good.
3. SEATTLE MARINERS. I want this team to be good so bad. I love Dustin Ackley more than I love my kids, and I might love Justin Smoak more than him. I loved Michael Pineda but can learn to love Jesus Montero now that he's over here, and that gives them three solid hitter prospects, and they still have King Felix at the front of that rotation and you could easily argue he's the best pitcher in the league. It's a good base, but there are lots of other issues here, particularly owing Chone Figgins $26 million over the last three years and having basically nothing left in the rotation behind Felix after trading Pineda and Doug Fister last season. If Seattle is really smart, they trade away Ichiro (contract up after this season) and Felix (2 years after this one) and acquire prospects, although perhaps getting rid of Ichiro isn't a smart decision from an attendance/money perspective. I dunno. But they aren't in good shape now and they should probably do something about it. Like me and the treadmill.
4. OAKLAND ATHLETICS. At some point you gotta make a move, right? I'm starting to wonder if Oakland hasn't become some kind of prospect turnover factory where they do nothing but acquire and develop prospects and then trade them away when they begin to develop for more young people. It's like some kind of kiddie labor ring - like Nike or Apple - but without the massive prophets. The good news is they have a top 10 minor leagues system after shipping off Trevor Cahill, Gio Gonzalez, and Andrew Bailey and very little in the way of contract obligations with only something like $28 million committed next year, $12 million the next year, and just one player signed for 2015 (Yeonis Cespedes) so if they ever do get that move to San Jose approved and it does increase revenue as much as they're saying they'll have the flexibility somehow become a major player and oh yeah now I see what the plan is, but it's not really a a winning plan for right now. I really hope they end up with that stadium or whatever.
PREDICTIONS FOR THE YEAR:
NL WEST: Arizona
NL CENTRAL: Cincinnati
NL EAST: Philadelphia
NL Wildcards: Miami, Milwaukee
AL WEST: Los Angeles
AL CENTRAL: Detroit
AL EAST: New York
AL Wildcards: Tampa, Texas
NL Pennant: Arizona over Philly
AL Pennant: Detroit over Tampa
Series: Detroit over Arizona
NL MVP: Justin Upton, Arizona
NL Cy Young: Clayton Kershaw, Los Angeles (if they don't shutdown Strasburg for innings he wins this)
NL rookie of the year: Zack Cozart, Cincinnati
AL MVP: Miguel Cabrera, Detroit
AL Cy Young: Justin Verlander, Detroit
AL Rookie of the Year: Matt Moore, Tampa
Now yes, there have been some games played and you could say I am cheating, but I swear to you I already have the teams written down in order and I promise I won't change it. You'll just have to believe me, but I'm telling the truth or I'm not a Schilling's uncle.
AMERICAN LEAGUE EAST
1. NEW YORK YANKEES. This team is getting older than dirt, or is already older than dirt with Brett Gardner and Robinson Cano the only starters under 30 and nobody under 28, but I think they have one more run in them, particularly with a revamped pitching staff. Of course, the Michael Pineda thing is a bit troubling since he was so freaking good last year and I'm all confused about how bad he could have been this Spring to fall out of the rotation, but even if somehow the probably best rookie pitcher of our generation is out of commission or goes all Joe Charboneau just adding Kuroda and Hughes to that rotation is a major upgrade. Of course, any or all of Jeter, A-Rod, Rivera, or Ibanez could suddenly be done, Granderson and the whole bullpen are probably due to regress, and Texeira has been trending downward. They could conceivably fall off a cliff this year, but I don't think that happens until next season.
2. TAMPA RAYS. Wade Davis didn't make the Rays rotation, and would be the unquestioned ace of the Twins. Alex Cobb didn't make the roster, and he'd be considered a future ace for the Twins. So yeah, pitching-pitching-pitching. It's the way to win, but the Rays do it better than anybody else and can also acquire a lot of great young talent in the lineup. Add to that a front office who recognizes the team's needs and knows how to go and get what they need on the cheap and that's how Tampa can contend in the AL East despite a minuscule payroll (for the division). Need some left-handed power? Sign Carlos Pena (1 yr/$7M). Looking for a utility infielder with a specific skill (crushing lefties)? Sign Jeff Keppinger (1 yr/$1.5M and a far, far, far better signing than Jayme Carroll). Luke Scott, Jose Molina, Fernando Rodney, and even Kyle Farnsworth fit that same type of mold. I don't want to just go ahead and give out virtual HJs here, but the Rays ability to both find, draft, and develop talent along with their free agent acumen should be what every GM studies.
3. BOSTON RED SOX. There are a million reasons to not believe in the Red Sox this year, and none of them have to do with friend chicken or beer which is the stupidest, media-drivenest story since the supposed Moon Landing (YOU CAN SEE THE FLAG WAVE IN THE BREEZE PEOPLE!). You can look at the rotation where starter #3 is talented but injury-plauged Clay Buchholz, #4 is a converted middle reliever (Daniel Bard), and #5 is some dude nobody's ever heard of. Or you can look at the bullpen, where Alfredo Aceves, a jack of all trades type, is being pushed into closing. Or you can take a look at the lineup and see mediocrity in an awful lot of spots (Cody Ross, Ryan Sweeney, Mike Aviles, and Jarrod Saltalamacchia) and really, this Sox team just isn't very good, and might finish as low as fourth. My favorite part is how they traded both their starting shortstop (Marco Scutaro) and back-up and up-and-comer (Jed Lowrie) to get a middle of the road prospect and a middle reliever and are now stuck with Aviles until Jose Iglesias is ready, which may never happen because he can't hit (.235 with a grand total of 10 extra-base hits at AAA last year). And thank god. The Red Sox can go back to sucking in a hurry please, I'm sick of the bandwagon douche-tards.
4. TORONTO BLUE JAYS. In any other division I'd be calling the BJs (ha ha BJ) my sleeper team and singing their praises, but the AL East just isn't fair, no matter what the Jays do. They have two guys who could jump up into Cy Young territory and it wouldn't shock me in Ricky Romero and Brandon Morrow, a future young stud pitcher in Kyle Drabek, the biggest home run hitter in the game today in Jose Bautista, and a lot of good young talent around him (Brett Lawrie, J.P. Arencibia, Yunel Escobar) with some reclamation cases in Colby Rasmus and Adam Lind who, if they get it turned around, could decide this thing. I love this team. If they can find a good trade for Adam Snider (say, an SP or a decent reliever, maybe a 2b or lf) they could jump up and finish in third. Seriously it's totally not fair to be in this division. It's like Hitler or something.
5. BALTIMORE ORIOLES. I can't decide if I think the Orioles are finally moving down the right path or if they're perpetually effed, because right as Adam Jones, Matt Wieters, Nick Markakis, and Robert Andino are starting to come into their own and mesh with J.J. Hardy and Mark Reynolds to give the O's a good offense their pitching consists of mediocre prospects, failed prospects, mediocre journeymen, and a bullpen full of castoffs. Plus their current 1B, Chris Davis, is one of the only players around who can match Mark Reynolds (the O's 3B) when it comes to striking out only he comes without all the hitting and stuff. Same shitty fielding though.
AMERICAN LEAGUE CENTRAL
1. DETROIT TIGERS. Do you remember there ever being a more prohibitive favorite in any division ever? I'm sure it's happened, but I can't recall anything off the top of my head. That lineup is absolutely loaded and they have Justin Verlander and that's all you need in the central. I like how people are all like "their defense is terrible" and "after Verlander there are too many questions in the rotation" and "no way Valverde can go 49-49 again." None of that even matters. As long as Valverde is competent and the rest of the rotation approaches average this team will win 90 games, which is all it will take in the central this year. If they want to contend for the World Series they'll need to do more than that and somebody like Fister or Scherzer will need to take a nice little leap forward, but they can sleepwalk to the central crown.
2. CLEVELAND INDIANS. Their contending status took a bit of a hit when Grady Sizemore hit the 60-day DL (SHOCKER!), and struggling prospect Matt LaPorta and promising prospect Lonnie Chisenhall were both sent to the minors, but both will be back soon since they're both crushing AAA pitching so far and you'd have to be an idiot to depend on Sizemore, so I think they'll be just fine. Outside of SP Justin Masterson, SS Asdrubel Cabrera, and C Carlos Santana it's really a pretty mediocre team unless Ubaldo gets back to his unhittable form which is pretty unlikely at this point, but luckily for them the AL Central is still the NFC West of the baseballers so they look good for second, and being something like 10 games out of that second wild card spot.
3. KANSAS CITY ROYALS. Not yet. Not quite yet. The pitching is quite there yet to keep pace with the hitters, because pretty much the hitting has arrived. Gordon-Cain-Moustakas-Hosmer-Butler are all the future and are all primed to have big years. On the pitching side, the Sanchez trade was the right move, Hochevar needs (and gets) another shot, and Duffy, Mendoza, Collins, and Crow are the future, I just don't know if they're the present. The loss of Soria is a killer, not necessarily because of his closing ability, but because he'd be a huge chip for them to trade in order to acquire a top line starter because that's what they need and either Collins or Crow could close with little issue, particularly Collins because I think, and I could be remembering wrong, that Crow could/should be a starter down the line. Things are progressing in Kansas City. They need to break .500 this year and then improve the starting pitching for next year and they could make a playoff run. Anything less and this whole rebuilding process was a waste of time and I'll burn my KC hat.
4. MINNESOTA TWINS. If Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau get back to normal it's conceivable the Twins could get up to second here, but there is a zero percent chance they can possibly win the division with that pitching staff, especially with Moon Shot Scott out for the year. I don't know what's more embarrassing, trotting out a rotation of Liriano-Pavano-Marquis-Blackburn-Swarzak, or hoping/waiting/expecting, for the 25th year in a row, that Francisco Liriano is going to become an ace. Did you know his career ERA+ is 100, meaning in his career based on ERA he's been completely average? And that includes that insane 2006, which gives you an idea of how awful he's been since then. FUN FACT: Since 2009, seventeen pitchers have given up at least 215 hits in a year in a season in which they struck out less than 115 batters as well - three of them (Nick Blackburn, Jason Marquis, and Carl Pavano). They also have 2 of the last 3 league leaders in hits allowed (Blackburn 2009, Pavano 2011). All this AND Matt Capps as your closer? We're truly blessed.
5. CHICAGO WHITE SOX. Trainwreck city and I'm going to enjoy every minute of it. They have the shitty contracts (Adam Dunn - 3 yrs, $44 million left, Alex Rios 3 yrs, $35 mill left, John Danks - 5 yrs, $65 million and signed this offseason for some strange reason), the broken farm system (ranked 30 out of 30 by Keith Law and he says "they aren't particularly close to 29"), a mid-tier pick + only one supplemental pick in the upcoming draft, and their best player is 36 years old, and their "young" up and coming infield is made up of three guys who each hit worse than the league average last year. Their only decent asset which might net them any prospects is Jake Peavy, but he's only got one year left on his deal and he's making $22 million in that year. He's going to have to pitch almost exactly like the Peavy of old to get any interest, and I still don't know if anybody would be willing to pay that kind of money plus give up decent prospects. Basically they have no young future stars, no contract flexibility, and no way to add prospects. Freaking awesome. I love it.
AMERICAN LEAGUE WEST
1. LOS ANGELES ANGELS. Have you looked at this pitching staff? Jered Weaver, Dan Haren, and C.J. Wilson? Their #4 is Ervin Santana, whose ERA last year was 3.38 which, by the by, is better than any Twins' pitcher has had since 2007 and if you don't count Johan Santana it's better than any Twins' pitcher since Joe Mays in 2001. And he's there #4. Oh, and in case you missed it they also signed Albert Pujols, the best hitter of this generation. It's a bit of a negative that their three best hitters all play the same position, their infield is full of mediocrity, and two of their starting outfielders are overpaid and semi-washed up, but would you look at that pitching? I'd look again but I'm already spent.
2. TEXAS RANGERS. Well they lost C.J. Wilson and that's a negative, and overall there are a lot of questions with the pitching. Can Neftali Feliz transition into a starter's role after being a shutdown closer? Why would a contending team even consider installing Joe Nathan as their closer? What happened to Alexi Ogando at the end of last year? What really happened at the Alamo? Will Yu Darvish be more Hideo Nomo (when he was good) or more Hideki Irabu? Can a team with Derek Holland and Colby Lewis at the top of the rotation win anything? I don't know, but what I do know is that just writing a bunch of questions without answering them is really lazy writing, and I don't want to do that, so their lineup is really good.
3. SEATTLE MARINERS. I want this team to be good so bad. I love Dustin Ackley more than I love my kids, and I might love Justin Smoak more than him. I loved Michael Pineda but can learn to love Jesus Montero now that he's over here, and that gives them three solid hitter prospects, and they still have King Felix at the front of that rotation and you could easily argue he's the best pitcher in the league. It's a good base, but there are lots of other issues here, particularly owing Chone Figgins $26 million over the last three years and having basically nothing left in the rotation behind Felix after trading Pineda and Doug Fister last season. If Seattle is really smart, they trade away Ichiro (contract up after this season) and Felix (2 years after this one) and acquire prospects, although perhaps getting rid of Ichiro isn't a smart decision from an attendance/money perspective. I dunno. But they aren't in good shape now and they should probably do something about it. Like me and the treadmill.
4. OAKLAND ATHLETICS. At some point you gotta make a move, right? I'm starting to wonder if Oakland hasn't become some kind of prospect turnover factory where they do nothing but acquire and develop prospects and then trade them away when they begin to develop for more young people. It's like some kind of kiddie labor ring - like Nike or Apple - but without the massive prophets. The good news is they have a top 10 minor leagues system after shipping off Trevor Cahill, Gio Gonzalez, and Andrew Bailey and very little in the way of contract obligations with only something like $28 million committed next year, $12 million the next year, and just one player signed for 2015 (Yeonis Cespedes) so if they ever do get that move to San Jose approved and it does increase revenue as much as they're saying they'll have the flexibility somehow become a major player and oh yeah now I see what the plan is, but it's not really a a winning plan for right now. I really hope they end up with that stadium or whatever.
PREDICTIONS FOR THE YEAR:
NL WEST: Arizona
NL CENTRAL: Cincinnati
NL EAST: Philadelphia
NL Wildcards: Miami, Milwaukee
AL WEST: Los Angeles
AL CENTRAL: Detroit
AL EAST: New York
AL Wildcards: Tampa, Texas
NL Pennant: Arizona over Philly
AL Pennant: Detroit over Tampa
Series: Detroit over Arizona
NL MVP: Justin Upton, Arizona
NL Cy Young: Clayton Kershaw, Los Angeles (if they don't shutdown Strasburg for innings he wins this)
NL rookie of the year: Zack Cozart, Cincinnati
AL MVP: Miguel Cabrera, Detroit
AL Cy Young: Justin Verlander, Detroit
AL Rookie of the Year: Matt Moore, Tampa
Tuesday, April 3, 2012
2012 MLB Preview - National League
Well what a fantastic end to the college basketball season. Who wouldn't be rooting for Kentucky? The plucky underdog who does things the right way with a no nonsense coach who won't stand for shenanigans and teaches the fundamentals. Just awesome shit right there. So as sad as it makes me, it's time to move on to super awesome baseball which starts tomorrow, and I for one have a giant boner.
I love baseball. I love everything about it and I can't wait for it to start. I have a stupid amount of money down on baseball future bets and I can't get enough of baseball betting here, specifically a ton of team OVER/UNDER Wins. I'll be pointing those out, along with some player props where appropriate. Or not appropriate. Just follow me and you'll be ok.
Going with the National League today and we'll have the AL up in the next day or so. And by we I mean me, of course, because I'm some kind of god damn nation of one here. I should have my own flag. And probably like, a constitution. Somewhere in the Bill of Rights I'm going to put something about boobs, but I'm not sure what because I didn't go to law school. I'll get back to you. Anyway, here:
NATIONAL LEAGUE EAST:
1. PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES. Roy Halladay-Cliff Lee-Cole Hamels. That shit ain't fair. And pitcher #4 is Vance Worley, who finished third in the NL rookie of the year balloting last year. Yeah, there are a million questions about the offense - will Chase Utley ever play again, will Ryan Howard be able to hit after achilles surgery, is Placido Polanco toast - but how can you possibly bet against that pitching, particularly with Jonathan Papelbon cleaning up shop in the ninth. Yeah, Papelbon is a spaz and an asstard and pretty much a douche in every way but the dude can pitch one inning as well as anybody. He might save 60. Yet I'm laying off his OVER/UNDER 37 line because I think he'll probably get over it but I'd rather bet on Jacoby fucking Welkerbury or Charles Manson than bet on Dickboner.
2. MIAMI MARLINS. Well the Marlins haven't been relevant in a while, so it looks like it's time for the semi-regular open up your wallets and spend like crazy time the Marlins are known for. I know this time it's because of the move to Miami and the new stadium and the new uniforms and all that jazz rather than a random whim, but it's still crazy how this happens all the time. Will Jose Reyes, Mark Buehrle, and Heath Bell be enough to put them over the top? No, don't be stupid, but they could be a Wild Card team if everything breaks right. You know, if Josh Johnson is actually healthy, Carlos Zambrano is sane, Mike Stanton is as much of a stud as I think he is, and Logan Morrison takes that next step. Plus Reyes and Hanley staying healthy and stuff. Too many ifs here to play that 85 wins number either way, but this is going to be a very interesting team.
3. WASHINGTON NATIONALS. Pretty much this year's happy fun sleeper squad because of the return of the immortal Stephen Strasburg (OVER 11.5 WINS = lock), the emergence of Michael Morse, and a trade for Gio Gonzalez. What? That's the whole reason we're hearing so much National buzz? It's because of all the hoopla over this dink Bryce Harper, isn't it? Yeah, I know we're all Brian Harper fans because of what he did for the Twins and we should be loyal to his son and all, but between the douchy behavior (just do a google search, there are 16,000 results for Bryce Harper douchebag) and the national handies he gets every five minutes from the media I'm done with him.
4. ATLANTA BRAVES. There's a lot of reasons for optimism in Atlanta following a pretty monumental collapse at the end of last season. Jason Heyward and Freddie Freeman, the last two NL Rookie-of-the-Year runner ups, are only 22 as is brand new starting shortstop Tyler Pastornicky and Atlanta is just loaded with young arms in the minors. The only problem is that in a division where almost everyone is improving the Braves are built for the future and not the present. Look at that rotation - Tim Hudson is older than your mom and coming off back surgery, Tommy Hanson is coming off shoulder surgery, and Jair Jurrjens was unable to finish out yet another season with knee problems. Not to mention Chipper Jones is still considered an important piece to their puzzle. So yeah, I'm gonna hit that under 86.5 wins, and I'm gonna hit it hard. Like it was your mom.
5. NEW YORK METS. Jesus this team is a mess. The only good things on this entire roster are 1b Ike Davis, assuming he returns from injury and can hit again, and David Wright who needs to be traded for some prospects or something but knowing the Mets they'll screw it up. I guess you could put the hopeful return of Johan Santana from injury, but even if he's 80% of what he used to be his best use is as a trade piece because this team isn't going anywhere and might battle the Astros for worst team in the NL. Although it won't be much of a battle because no matter how bad the Mets are they can't be worse than Houston. Oh, and nice Jason Bay signing. Although as Twins' fans we probably shouldn't joke too much because we could be looking at the future of Joe Mauer and the Twins. Oh crap.
NATIONAL LEAGUE CENTRAL
1. CINCINNATI REDS. Love this team, and the OVER 86.5 wins is one of the first bets I made when the numbers were released. Their rotation is so good they were able to trade Travis Wood, who most teams would covet like a homeless dude covets his weird ass tin cup he won't let anyone see, for one of the best relievers in the game in Sean Marshall. They also have an awesome trio in Brandon Phillips, Jay Bruce, and Joey Votto and a also bring in plenty of youth with elite prospects Zack Cozart (SS) and Devin Mesoraco (C) getting a chance to start this year. Drew Stubbs and his 205 Ks with only 15 HRs pisses me off and the whole Ryan Madson out for the year thing is a kick in the nuts (especially since they just signed Alfredo Simon) but something tells me if Marshall doesn't work out you just go ahead and hand that ball to Aroldis Chapman and his 100mph fastball and 93mph slider and everything will workout just fine.
2. MILWAUKEE BREWERS. I wanted to pick them lower than this because I hate everything that's from Wisconsin including cheaters like Ryan Braun, but even without Fielder this should be a pretty good team. Rickie Weeks, Corey Hart, Roid-guy, Aramis Ramirez, and Clay Mathews form a pretty solid offense, and their top-3 in the rotation is still stellar with Greinke-Gallardo-Marcum. Throw-in John Axford's sweet stache and K-Rod still setting up for him and they're in pretty decent shape. If Taylor Green can become a starter at short and someone in the bullpen gives them the confidence to trade K-Rod for some help they could be all wildcardy. Plus it wouldn't hurt to just go ahead and play Carlos Gomez already. I mean jeez, enough with the racism, am I right?
3. ST. LOUIS CARDINALS. I took the over on their wins at 84.5, but it doesn't mean I'm exactly sold on them because their two best offensive players (Matt Holliday, Lance Berkman) are as fragile as a lamp of some slutty ladies leg. And I don't necessarily mean healthwise, just they both always seem to be about 1% away from falling off a cliff into shitty old person land. It hasn't happened yet, but part of me kind of has this feeling that Pujols was the duct tape that held those two together - we shall see. In any case they have enough starting pitching to make them relevant no matter what so that's good, and if Carlos Beltran is healthy and David Freese is actually good they'll fly past that 84.5 and this prediction. Also nice job paying Yadier Molina all the money you refused to give Pujols. Nice priorities. Yeah this one time Christina Aguilera wanted to sleep with me but I couldn't because I had to get an oil change that day.
4. PITTSBURGH PIRATES. I really wanted to pick them higher (and took them OVER 73.5 wins) but holy mother have you seen this rotation? I guess it was obvious when Erik Bedard was announced as the opening day pitcher, but looking at it all at once is like whoa - Bedard, James McDonald, Jeff Karstens, Kevin Correia, and Brad Lincoln? I mean, I'm not going to say this often but I'd rather have the Twins' pitching staff. Barely. I kind of like what they're doing with their hitters - Andrew McCutchen and Neil Walker are studs while Jose Tabata, Alex Presley, and Pedro Alvarez have promise but the pitching is like Buzz's girlfriend - woof.
5. CHICAGO CUBS. Year one of the Theo ERA and it's not going to be pretty, even if it's not his fault because mostly the talent level here is poop and there's more bad contracts than there are concussions in the Twins' clubhouse. Looking at their squad the only guys who you'd build a team with are Starlin Castro and Travis Wood, although you can't 100% give up on Geovany Soto or Ian Stewart just yet. Still, it's clear they have a plan, shedding Carlos Zambrano and acquiring stud prospect Anthony Rizzo from San Diego. Right now they've filled the roster with fill-in types who are at least cheap (David DeJesus, Chris Volstad, Paul Maholm) but it's going to be a long road - at least until they can figure out how to get rid of Soriano's chlamydia of a contract.
6. HOUSTON ASTROS. Easiest call of the year, because the Astros are rebuilding this year except they're doing it with a shitty farm system so that's probably not good. Let me save you some time - here are the players you know on the Astros: Brett Myers, Carlos Lee. If you're a big baseball nerd (or a degenerate gambler) you might also know Wandy Rodriguez, J.A. Happ, Bud Norris, Jack Cust (hi Bear) and Jed Lowrie. That's it though. That's the whole list. Also nobody, not even sportsbooks, pay attention to Houston because last year they kept offering props on Chris Johnson for over a week after he'd been sent down to the minors and they offered props for 3-4 days on Michael Bourn as an Astro after he'd been traded to Atlanta. No, you have a gambling problem.
NATIONAL LEAGUE WEST
1. ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS. I'll admit this is the division I know the least about due to it being all Pacific Time Zoney and National League-ish, but I don't see any way the D-Backs don't run away with this (which is why I'm on the OVER 86 wins). Actually I guess I can see how they don't run away with it because their rotation is made up of two guys who were traded for Edwin Jackson (Ian Kennedy and Daniel Hudson whose middle name is Claiborne lol), a prospect who may have lost it (Trevor Cahill), one of the worst starters to always have a job (Joe Saunders), and a guy with a weird as hell delivery that could Hideo Nomo on him at any moment (Josh Collmenter). Still they have a really good lineup and bullpen and they have Justin Upton who is who you should be praying to your precious baby jesus that Aaron Hicks one day becomes. Stupid jesus will probably give us like, Felix Pie. Such a dick.
2. LOS ANGELES DODGERS. Things are looking up after people with money bought this team so they at least have a prayer of bringing in some talent if they need to make a push, but what I really love about this team is that they're probably the best NBA Jam type team in the league, and I mean the entire MLB. Really, if you had to go one hitter and one pitcher can you do better than Clayton Kershaw and Matt Kemp? The only other team who is even in contention is the Tigers with Miguel Cabrera and Justin Verlander, but the Dodgers are clearly the class of the NL. Which is great because in case you missed it MLB is going to a 2-on-2 format this year.
3. SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS. How can I pick a team with a Lincecum/Cain/Bumgarner/Vogelsong start to the rotation third when I love pitching, you ask? Well mostly because Aubrey Huff is still involved. I don't know, I guess they should probably finish in 2nd but I just have a bad feeling here. Lincecum is going to apparently shelve his slider (which was more effective than his fastball last year) and I'm just bored with Sandoval even though as I look him up it appears he was actually really god damn amazing last year. Whatever. I'm not interested in your stats nerd boy. Baseball isn't played by computers so you can take your numbers and shove them up your ass while you sit there in your boxers in your mom's basement and cry yourself to sleep with your commodore 64 and World of Warcraft. I know baseball. I watch baseball. And Sandoval is too fat. FACT.
4. COLORADO ROCKIES. How can I pick a squad with Troy Tulowitzki - the white Cal Ripken - fourth? I know, it's rough,, but do you remember the part of the words where I talked about the Pirates' rotation? Well if that was Jaws 3 the Rockies' are bringing you Jaws 4 because they went ahead and traded for Jeremy god damn Guthrie and immediately made him the opening day starter which is more stupider than your face. And then they gave Jamie Moyer a job which is cute and all but come on. Unless Drew Pomeranz is all kinds of ready already this is going to be a brutal pitching team. Rockies under 81.5 is total money because this is not a winning team. If that's not enough for you, they signed Michael Cuddyer and still start decrepit Todd Helton who has trouble hitting it out of his backyard when he plays wiffleball with his kids who are probably in special ed. WHAT MORE DO YOU NEED?
5. SAN DIEGO PADRES. There are three teams that seem like they always need help (Padres, Royals, Pirates) which is actually not 100% true because the Padres have done stuff like win the division twice since 2005 and won 90 games just two years ago, but they see like they always need help. And I bring that up because it's clear the Royals have a plan and it seems like the Pirates might have a plan, but I don't know what the Padres are doing. If I look I can see a small few good players/rays of light - Yonder Alonso, Chase Headley (maybe), and Cory Luebke. That's it. Everyone else is either a Carlos Quentin/Orlando Hudson or a Dustin Moseley/Will Venable. You know what I mean.
And there we are. So we got the D-Backs, Phillies, and Reds with the Marlins and Cardinals as Wild Cards (yeah I know I picked the Brewers over the Cards, just swap 'em. I'm not going to do everything for you, a-hole). Let's give the pennant to the Reds. AL preview coming whenever I write it. Shooting for Thursday/Friday.
I love baseball. I love everything about it and I can't wait for it to start. I have a stupid amount of money down on baseball future bets and I can't get enough of baseball betting here, specifically a ton of team OVER/UNDER Wins. I'll be pointing those out, along with some player props where appropriate. Or not appropriate. Just follow me and you'll be ok.
Going with the National League today and we'll have the AL up in the next day or so. And by we I mean me, of course, because I'm some kind of god damn nation of one here. I should have my own flag. And probably like, a constitution. Somewhere in the Bill of Rights I'm going to put something about boobs, but I'm not sure what because I didn't go to law school. I'll get back to you. Anyway, here:
NATIONAL LEAGUE EAST:
1. PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES. Roy Halladay-Cliff Lee-Cole Hamels. That shit ain't fair. And pitcher #4 is Vance Worley, who finished third in the NL rookie of the year balloting last year. Yeah, there are a million questions about the offense - will Chase Utley ever play again, will Ryan Howard be able to hit after achilles surgery, is Placido Polanco toast - but how can you possibly bet against that pitching, particularly with Jonathan Papelbon cleaning up shop in the ninth. Yeah, Papelbon is a spaz and an asstard and pretty much a douche in every way but the dude can pitch one inning as well as anybody. He might save 60. Yet I'm laying off his OVER/UNDER 37 line because I think he'll probably get over it but I'd rather bet on Jacoby fucking Welkerbury or Charles Manson than bet on Dickboner.
2. MIAMI MARLINS. Well the Marlins haven't been relevant in a while, so it looks like it's time for the semi-regular open up your wallets and spend like crazy time the Marlins are known for. I know this time it's because of the move to Miami and the new stadium and the new uniforms and all that jazz rather than a random whim, but it's still crazy how this happens all the time. Will Jose Reyes, Mark Buehrle, and Heath Bell be enough to put them over the top? No, don't be stupid, but they could be a Wild Card team if everything breaks right. You know, if Josh Johnson is actually healthy, Carlos Zambrano is sane, Mike Stanton is as much of a stud as I think he is, and Logan Morrison takes that next step. Plus Reyes and Hanley staying healthy and stuff. Too many ifs here to play that 85 wins number either way, but this is going to be a very interesting team.
3. WASHINGTON NATIONALS. Pretty much this year's happy fun sleeper squad because of the return of the immortal Stephen Strasburg (OVER 11.5 WINS = lock), the emergence of Michael Morse, and a trade for Gio Gonzalez. What? That's the whole reason we're hearing so much National buzz? It's because of all the hoopla over this dink Bryce Harper, isn't it? Yeah, I know we're all Brian Harper fans because of what he did for the Twins and we should be loyal to his son and all, but between the douchy behavior (just do a google search, there are 16,000 results for Bryce Harper douchebag) and the national handies he gets every five minutes from the media I'm done with him.
4. ATLANTA BRAVES. There's a lot of reasons for optimism in Atlanta following a pretty monumental collapse at the end of last season. Jason Heyward and Freddie Freeman, the last two NL Rookie-of-the-Year runner ups, are only 22 as is brand new starting shortstop Tyler Pastornicky and Atlanta is just loaded with young arms in the minors. The only problem is that in a division where almost everyone is improving the Braves are built for the future and not the present. Look at that rotation - Tim Hudson is older than your mom and coming off back surgery, Tommy Hanson is coming off shoulder surgery, and Jair Jurrjens was unable to finish out yet another season with knee problems. Not to mention Chipper Jones is still considered an important piece to their puzzle. So yeah, I'm gonna hit that under 86.5 wins, and I'm gonna hit it hard. Like it was your mom.
5. NEW YORK METS. Jesus this team is a mess. The only good things on this entire roster are 1b Ike Davis, assuming he returns from injury and can hit again, and David Wright who needs to be traded for some prospects or something but knowing the Mets they'll screw it up. I guess you could put the hopeful return of Johan Santana from injury, but even if he's 80% of what he used to be his best use is as a trade piece because this team isn't going anywhere and might battle the Astros for worst team in the NL. Although it won't be much of a battle because no matter how bad the Mets are they can't be worse than Houston. Oh, and nice Jason Bay signing. Although as Twins' fans we probably shouldn't joke too much because we could be looking at the future of Joe Mauer and the Twins. Oh crap.
NATIONAL LEAGUE CENTRAL
1. CINCINNATI REDS. Love this team, and the OVER 86.5 wins is one of the first bets I made when the numbers were released. Their rotation is so good they were able to trade Travis Wood, who most teams would covet like a homeless dude covets his weird ass tin cup he won't let anyone see, for one of the best relievers in the game in Sean Marshall. They also have an awesome trio in Brandon Phillips, Jay Bruce, and Joey Votto and a also bring in plenty of youth with elite prospects Zack Cozart (SS) and Devin Mesoraco (C) getting a chance to start this year. Drew Stubbs and his 205 Ks with only 15 HRs pisses me off and the whole Ryan Madson out for the year thing is a kick in the nuts (especially since they just signed Alfredo Simon) but something tells me if Marshall doesn't work out you just go ahead and hand that ball to Aroldis Chapman and his 100mph fastball and 93mph slider and everything will workout just fine.
2. MILWAUKEE BREWERS. I wanted to pick them lower than this because I hate everything that's from Wisconsin including cheaters like Ryan Braun, but even without Fielder this should be a pretty good team. Rickie Weeks, Corey Hart, Roid-guy, Aramis Ramirez, and Clay Mathews form a pretty solid offense, and their top-3 in the rotation is still stellar with Greinke-Gallardo-Marcum. Throw-in John Axford's sweet stache and K-Rod still setting up for him and they're in pretty decent shape. If Taylor Green can become a starter at short and someone in the bullpen gives them the confidence to trade K-Rod for some help they could be all wildcardy. Plus it wouldn't hurt to just go ahead and play Carlos Gomez already. I mean jeez, enough with the racism, am I right?
3. ST. LOUIS CARDINALS. I took the over on their wins at 84.5, but it doesn't mean I'm exactly sold on them because their two best offensive players (Matt Holliday, Lance Berkman) are as fragile as a lamp of some slutty ladies leg. And I don't necessarily mean healthwise, just they both always seem to be about 1% away from falling off a cliff into shitty old person land. It hasn't happened yet, but part of me kind of has this feeling that Pujols was the duct tape that held those two together - we shall see. In any case they have enough starting pitching to make them relevant no matter what so that's good, and if Carlos Beltran is healthy and David Freese is actually good they'll fly past that 84.5 and this prediction. Also nice job paying Yadier Molina all the money you refused to give Pujols. Nice priorities. Yeah this one time Christina Aguilera wanted to sleep with me but I couldn't because I had to get an oil change that day.
4. PITTSBURGH PIRATES. I really wanted to pick them higher (and took them OVER 73.5 wins) but holy mother have you seen this rotation? I guess it was obvious when Erik Bedard was announced as the opening day pitcher, but looking at it all at once is like whoa - Bedard, James McDonald, Jeff Karstens, Kevin Correia, and Brad Lincoln? I mean, I'm not going to say this often but I'd rather have the Twins' pitching staff. Barely. I kind of like what they're doing with their hitters - Andrew McCutchen and Neil Walker are studs while Jose Tabata, Alex Presley, and Pedro Alvarez have promise but the pitching is like Buzz's girlfriend - woof.
5. CHICAGO CUBS. Year one of the Theo ERA and it's not going to be pretty, even if it's not his fault because mostly the talent level here is poop and there's more bad contracts than there are concussions in the Twins' clubhouse. Looking at their squad the only guys who you'd build a team with are Starlin Castro and Travis Wood, although you can't 100% give up on Geovany Soto or Ian Stewart just yet. Still, it's clear they have a plan, shedding Carlos Zambrano and acquiring stud prospect Anthony Rizzo from San Diego. Right now they've filled the roster with fill-in types who are at least cheap (David DeJesus, Chris Volstad, Paul Maholm) but it's going to be a long road - at least until they can figure out how to get rid of Soriano's chlamydia of a contract.
6. HOUSTON ASTROS. Easiest call of the year, because the Astros are rebuilding this year except they're doing it with a shitty farm system so that's probably not good. Let me save you some time - here are the players you know on the Astros: Brett Myers, Carlos Lee. If you're a big baseball nerd (or a degenerate gambler) you might also know Wandy Rodriguez, J.A. Happ, Bud Norris, Jack Cust (hi Bear) and Jed Lowrie. That's it though. That's the whole list. Also nobody, not even sportsbooks, pay attention to Houston because last year they kept offering props on Chris Johnson for over a week after he'd been sent down to the minors and they offered props for 3-4 days on Michael Bourn as an Astro after he'd been traded to Atlanta. No, you have a gambling problem.
NATIONAL LEAGUE WEST
1. ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS. I'll admit this is the division I know the least about due to it being all Pacific Time Zoney and National League-ish, but I don't see any way the D-Backs don't run away with this (which is why I'm on the OVER 86 wins). Actually I guess I can see how they don't run away with it because their rotation is made up of two guys who were traded for Edwin Jackson (Ian Kennedy and Daniel Hudson whose middle name is Claiborne lol), a prospect who may have lost it (Trevor Cahill), one of the worst starters to always have a job (Joe Saunders), and a guy with a weird as hell delivery that could Hideo Nomo on him at any moment (Josh Collmenter). Still they have a really good lineup and bullpen and they have Justin Upton who is who you should be praying to your precious baby jesus that Aaron Hicks one day becomes. Stupid jesus will probably give us like, Felix Pie. Such a dick.
2. LOS ANGELES DODGERS. Things are looking up after people with money bought this team so they at least have a prayer of bringing in some talent if they need to make a push, but what I really love about this team is that they're probably the best NBA Jam type team in the league, and I mean the entire MLB. Really, if you had to go one hitter and one pitcher can you do better than Clayton Kershaw and Matt Kemp? The only other team who is even in contention is the Tigers with Miguel Cabrera and Justin Verlander, but the Dodgers are clearly the class of the NL. Which is great because in case you missed it MLB is going to a 2-on-2 format this year.
3. SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS. How can I pick a team with a Lincecum/Cain/Bumgarner/Vogelsong start to the rotation third when I love pitching, you ask? Well mostly because Aubrey Huff is still involved. I don't know, I guess they should probably finish in 2nd but I just have a bad feeling here. Lincecum is going to apparently shelve his slider (which was more effective than his fastball last year) and I'm just bored with Sandoval even though as I look him up it appears he was actually really god damn amazing last year. Whatever. I'm not interested in your stats nerd boy. Baseball isn't played by computers so you can take your numbers and shove them up your ass while you sit there in your boxers in your mom's basement and cry yourself to sleep with your commodore 64 and World of Warcraft. I know baseball. I watch baseball. And Sandoval is too fat. FACT.
4. COLORADO ROCKIES. How can I pick a squad with Troy Tulowitzki - the white Cal Ripken - fourth? I know, it's rough,, but do you remember the part of the words where I talked about the Pirates' rotation? Well if that was Jaws 3 the Rockies' are bringing you Jaws 4 because they went ahead and traded for Jeremy god damn Guthrie and immediately made him the opening day starter which is more stupider than your face. And then they gave Jamie Moyer a job which is cute and all but come on. Unless Drew Pomeranz is all kinds of ready already this is going to be a brutal pitching team. Rockies under 81.5 is total money because this is not a winning team. If that's not enough for you, they signed Michael Cuddyer and still start decrepit Todd Helton who has trouble hitting it out of his backyard when he plays wiffleball with his kids who are probably in special ed. WHAT MORE DO YOU NEED?
5. SAN DIEGO PADRES. There are three teams that seem like they always need help (Padres, Royals, Pirates) which is actually not 100% true because the Padres have done stuff like win the division twice since 2005 and won 90 games just two years ago, but they see like they always need help. And I bring that up because it's clear the Royals have a plan and it seems like the Pirates might have a plan, but I don't know what the Padres are doing. If I look I can see a small few good players/rays of light - Yonder Alonso, Chase Headley (maybe), and Cory Luebke. That's it. Everyone else is either a Carlos Quentin/Orlando Hudson or a Dustin Moseley/Will Venable. You know what I mean.
And there we are. So we got the D-Backs, Phillies, and Reds with the Marlins and Cardinals as Wild Cards (yeah I know I picked the Brewers over the Cards, just swap 'em. I'm not going to do everything for you, a-hole). Let's give the pennant to the Reds. AL preview coming whenever I write it. Shooting for Thursday/Friday.
Wednesday, March 14, 2012
March Madness Preview
Well I'm back which sucks. I mean, I'm back in Minnesota from Florida for a couple of days before I head to Chicago with Snake and Dawger to watch some hoops with Bogart, but man am I going to miss Florida. So awesome. And even though we were on Estero Island, which is across from Fort Myers, we didn't go anywhere near the Twins facility. We didn't plan not to or anything, but we didn't plan to necessarily either and there was just so much to do we never got around to it and really I don't care one bit because hey, it's preseason baseball. What with all the laying on the beach, swimming in the ocean, playing with the kids, drinking, ogling college girls in bikinis on their Spring Break, fishing (although I wish I did more) and incredible food, there just wasn't time.
We even lucked into being there for Shrimp Fest, which meant there was a kick-ass parade the kids loved and the festival offered a massive amount of delicious shrimp, which fit in with all the other incredible seafood we were able to have (including an amazing crab chowder on Sanibel Island and tons of grouper and shrimp prepped in various ways). Not least of which was simply picking it up fresh from the daily market and preparing in the condo. I made grilled chili-lime shrimp, almond-crusted grouper, grilled spicy garlic shrimp, and spice-rubbed sea bass with a brown butter sauce and I know I like to brag about my cooking on here and everything but I absolutely knocked these out of the park. In fact, that grouper recipe is so good I'll share it at the end of this post. Plus they had Yuengling everywhere, including a place that had it on tap for $1.50 during happy hour. Many were consumed.
But enough about the past, time to look to the future and preview the NCAA Tournament. Not just picks for a bracket pool, but also some good lines I'll be wagering on at TopBet NCAA Hoops. I've realized lately that the reason I'm not doing well in bracket pools lately because I get a little too crazy. If I pick three crazy things to happen deep in the tournament, even if one does I'm screwed because it doesn't make up for the two that didn't. So I'm going to dial it back a bit this year, but I'll still throw out my crazier feelings because then if they hit I look smart. Oh, and I may write something Gopher-related tonight if I decide to watch them play LaSalle. I'm not sure yet.
SOUTH REGION:
The big story here obviously is Kentucky, which had rolled through this season without much issue until dropping the SEC Championship to Vandy, but still received the #1 overall seed due to their regular season domination. I also think they caught a break with their #2 and #3 seeds in Duke and Baylor because both have a tendency to shrink from big games and it wouldn't be remotely surprising if neither makes the sweet 16. I'm actually picking UNLV to beat both because they have the size and athleticism to neutralize Baylor's advantage and beat up on Duke, and like I said both teams are upsets waiting to happen. The only real danger is if Duke gets hot from 3, and the Rebels have struggled in that area but I think it's a worthy gamble.
Kentucky's biggest competition in the region might be Wichita State, a team I was willing to have go all the way to the Elite 8 or Final Four in my bracket if they avoiding the wrong match-ups, and clearly they didn't. I was initially tempted to stubbornly stick with what I was hoping would happen and have them shock the Wildcats (see what I did there) but reason prevailed and there's just no way I can take them over Kentucky so I have the Shockers out in the round of 16. I think they're the right kind of team who could take them down (experienced, well coached, disciplined, with enough size to deal with UK) and will be hammering them wagering wise assuming they get that far, but gotta go with the Wildcats here, as well as to win the region.
Early upsets I like UCONN over Iowa State and Xavier over Notre Dame. I actually liked either UCONN or Iowa State as a sleeper squad, but again, not against Kentucky, and I'm giving the edge to Connecticut mostly just based on experience but wouldn't be at all surprised to see the Cyclones pull it out. Xavier underachieved most of the year while Notre Dame overachieved, both results that seem to be evening themselves out. Xavier is the more talented squad, so they're the pick.
WEST REGION:
A pretty straight-forward region to me without a ton of upsets, but one that stands out to me is Memphis over Michigan State in round 2 (or 3, whatever). I know Sparty closed out the year strong, but the Tigers were on fire to finish up. They won 11 of their final 12 games which included wins over Xavier, two wins over a good Marshall team by 20+, two wins over a good UCF team by 19+, and a double-digit win at a decent Tulsa squad. There's more. Memphis also ranks in the top 20 in kenpom.com's offensive and defensive efficiency ratings, one of only seven teams in the country to have that distinction (the others: Syracuse, North Carolina, Wichita, Kansas, Kentucky, Ohio State, and, yes, Michigan State).
In my estimation the two best teams in the top half of this region are Memphis and Michigan State, and whoever wins this one goes on to the Elite 8, knocking off New Mexico in the round of 16. I would probably lean Sparty here just to be safe, but MSU just lost Branden Dawson for the year and that shifts things for me. Dawson isn't just their second best inside scorer and rebounder, he's their best athlete. The other inside players for the Spartans don't have anywhere near the athleticism of Dawson, and that's going to be sorely missed against a team like Memphis, which why I'm taking the Tigers.
The bottom half of the bracket is all about Marquette and Missouri, either of who could be a Final Four team and neither of which will have any issue reaching the Sweet 16 to face each other. I give the edge to Mizzou because this game is going to be all about fire power and Missouri has just a bit more. This might be the best game of the entire tournament. And as far as early upsets in this region the only one I have outside of the Memphis thing is Virginia over Florida. I once considered Florida a sleeper - and still would - but this matchup against UVA is a killer for them. The Gators rely on the outside shot, which is what the Cavs completely excel at shutting down, and they don't play nearly good enough defense to make Virginia's lousy offense pay, and they don't have anybody who can handle Mike Scott. I considered Long Beach but I think New Mexico is too hot and too good, and I was planning on having Murray State lose their first round matchup but then they pulled Colorado State and well, that ain't gonna happen.
EAST REGION:
Maybe the biggest question of the whole tournament is what to make of Syracuse now that Fab Melo is suspended for the tournament. There is going to be a tendency to overreact, such as the line on their opening game against Asheville falling from -17 to -15.5 (note: hit that -15.5 hard), but don't forget Syracuse is a very balanced, very good team, and even though their defense takes a pretty big hit with Melo out their offense is still going to be top notch. They can easily make it to the Final Four, depending on match-ups. So let's look.
One of the worst match-ups for the Orange could come in the second round against Kansas State. The Wildcats are big and physical (which is why they swept Missouri) and absolutely crush on the offensive boards (6th in the country), which just happens to be Syracuse's biggest weakness (341st) and that was with Melo. If K-State could shoot a little bit I'd feel a lot better, but between that and the fact and that I'm not even sure they can beat Southern Miss (although I think they probably can) means I'm pushing the Cuse through to the Elite 8 after beating Wisconsin in the Sweet 16 (I hate them, but I think they're peaking at the right time and Vandy is always ripe to throw up on themselves in the tournament).
In the bottom of the bracket I also see the seeds holding up and Ohio State and Florida State meeting in the Sweet 16 (only upset I have here is WVU over Gonzaga), which means I have seeds 1-4 in the round of 16 in this region which is lame but it's what I see. Both these teams are very flawed offensively, but both play tremendous defense, so I expect this one to stay in the 50s and be close the whole way, but with FSU clicking on all cylinders right now I'll give them the nod. And this is also where I see Syracuse's run ending, with FSU making the Final Four. The Seminoles are one of the biggest teams in the country with a defense that can contain the Orange, and with their shooting starting to come around they can get their shots against that zone. The Seminoles in the Final Four could only happen if they were the least flawed of a bunch of flawed high seeds, and that's exactly what we got here once Melo got suspended (Syracuse was my championship pick prior to the news). It's going to be the winner of that FSU/Ohio State game, bank on it.
MIDWEST:
This one is pretty clear cut, and I can't see any reason this shouldn't come down to Kansas vs. UNC in the Elite 8. The winner of Creighton/Alabama is probably the biggest threat to beat UNC before then (I have Creighton, but neither one is going to beat the Heels) because the bottom half of that bracket is just brutal. Both Temple and Michigan are ripe to be upset in the first round, but with their opponents being Ohio and the winner of Cal/USF it just ain't going to happen. I put Michigan in the Sweet 16 by default, but that's just a terrible grouping of teams. Those who whine about UNC getting favorable treatment, well, you kind of got a point.
The bottom is where I see some really wacky shit happening, with all three first round games outside of Kansas being upsets (NC State over SDSU, Belmont over G-Town, and Purdue over St. Mary's). I think the Boilers are better than the Gaels and NC State is peaking while SDSU is fading after doing it with smoke and mirrors most of the way, but the Belmont one probably needs more of an explanation than that. For me it's not so much a matter of matchups or statistical analysis, but this one is more of a "feel" game for me. Belmont is loaded with upper classmen and has building towards this for years, while Georgetown pretty much had to reset itself after last year and losing three top players to graduation. They've had a good year despite that, but as stupid as it sounds this one feels like destiny. Should be epic, and if Belmont can take care of G-Town I think they take down NC State as well before falling in the Sweet 16 to Kansas.
As far as that Elite 8 game goes between the Jayhawks and Tar Heels, it's weird because although I'm usually a Jayhawk hater dating back to Jacque Vaughn and Jeff Boschee and Eric Chenoweth and all those other nerds I'm on the bandwagon this year. I absolutely love Thomas Robinson in a Blake Griffin (in college) kind of way, although he takes Griffin's size and athleticism and adds in an actual post game which is why he reminds me so much of Hakeem Olajuwon and I don't care who knows it. Because of that and because I've seen North Carolina lose focus way too many times this year, I'm taking the Jayhawks. Of course it also wouldn't surprise me to see UNC run the table the whole way, but I'm betting on Kansas (plus Self is a better game coach than Williams). I just see Thomas Robinson doing a Danny Manning here, even if trusting Kansas in an NCAA Tournament is usually a foolish decision.
From there I have Kentucky over Kansas in the Final, which makes me sick because I hate thinking about watching Calipari win one. Hopefully somebody can take them down, although if it's Wichita I'm going to hate myself for chickening out.
Finally, since I promised, here is that almond crusted fish recipe. I made Grouper, but if you're in Minnesota it would probably work on tilapia or whatever else you can get. Try it. It'll change your life.
1/2 c. almonds chopped fine
1/4 c. olive oil
1/2 t. allspice
1/2 t. cayenne pepper
1 t. sea salt
1 t. black pepper
1 t. paprika
Mix all that together and then roll the fish around in it so it's got a nice count of the almonds. Heat a pan to high and heat your oven to 400 degrees. Throw the fish on the pan for 1 minute on each side to get a nice sear, then throw in the oven for 10 minutes or so depending on thickness. Serve.
So good you'll go burn down your local Red Lobster.
We even lucked into being there for Shrimp Fest, which meant there was a kick-ass parade the kids loved and the festival offered a massive amount of delicious shrimp, which fit in with all the other incredible seafood we were able to have (including an amazing crab chowder on Sanibel Island and tons of grouper and shrimp prepped in various ways). Not least of which was simply picking it up fresh from the daily market and preparing in the condo. I made grilled chili-lime shrimp, almond-crusted grouper, grilled spicy garlic shrimp, and spice-rubbed sea bass with a brown butter sauce and I know I like to brag about my cooking on here and everything but I absolutely knocked these out of the park. In fact, that grouper recipe is so good I'll share it at the end of this post. Plus they had Yuengling everywhere, including a place that had it on tap for $1.50 during happy hour. Many were consumed.
But enough about the past, time to look to the future and preview the NCAA Tournament. Not just picks for a bracket pool, but also some good lines I'll be wagering on at TopBet NCAA Hoops. I've realized lately that the reason I'm not doing well in bracket pools lately because I get a little too crazy. If I pick three crazy things to happen deep in the tournament, even if one does I'm screwed because it doesn't make up for the two that didn't. So I'm going to dial it back a bit this year, but I'll still throw out my crazier feelings because then if they hit I look smart. Oh, and I may write something Gopher-related tonight if I decide to watch them play LaSalle. I'm not sure yet.
SOUTH REGION:
The big story here obviously is Kentucky, which had rolled through this season without much issue until dropping the SEC Championship to Vandy, but still received the #1 overall seed due to their regular season domination. I also think they caught a break with their #2 and #3 seeds in Duke and Baylor because both have a tendency to shrink from big games and it wouldn't be remotely surprising if neither makes the sweet 16. I'm actually picking UNLV to beat both because they have the size and athleticism to neutralize Baylor's advantage and beat up on Duke, and like I said both teams are upsets waiting to happen. The only real danger is if Duke gets hot from 3, and the Rebels have struggled in that area but I think it's a worthy gamble.
Kentucky's biggest competition in the region might be Wichita State, a team I was willing to have go all the way to the Elite 8 or Final Four in my bracket if they avoiding the wrong match-ups, and clearly they didn't. I was initially tempted to stubbornly stick with what I was hoping would happen and have them shock the Wildcats (see what I did there) but reason prevailed and there's just no way I can take them over Kentucky so I have the Shockers out in the round of 16. I think they're the right kind of team who could take them down (experienced, well coached, disciplined, with enough size to deal with UK) and will be hammering them wagering wise assuming they get that far, but gotta go with the Wildcats here, as well as to win the region.
Early upsets I like UCONN over Iowa State and Xavier over Notre Dame. I actually liked either UCONN or Iowa State as a sleeper squad, but again, not against Kentucky, and I'm giving the edge to Connecticut mostly just based on experience but wouldn't be at all surprised to see the Cyclones pull it out. Xavier underachieved most of the year while Notre Dame overachieved, both results that seem to be evening themselves out. Xavier is the more talented squad, so they're the pick.
WEST REGION:
A pretty straight-forward region to me without a ton of upsets, but one that stands out to me is Memphis over Michigan State in round 2 (or 3, whatever). I know Sparty closed out the year strong, but the Tigers were on fire to finish up. They won 11 of their final 12 games which included wins over Xavier, two wins over a good Marshall team by 20+, two wins over a good UCF team by 19+, and a double-digit win at a decent Tulsa squad. There's more. Memphis also ranks in the top 20 in kenpom.com's offensive and defensive efficiency ratings, one of only seven teams in the country to have that distinction (the others: Syracuse, North Carolina, Wichita, Kansas, Kentucky, Ohio State, and, yes, Michigan State).
In my estimation the two best teams in the top half of this region are Memphis and Michigan State, and whoever wins this one goes on to the Elite 8, knocking off New Mexico in the round of 16. I would probably lean Sparty here just to be safe, but MSU just lost Branden Dawson for the year and that shifts things for me. Dawson isn't just their second best inside scorer and rebounder, he's their best athlete. The other inside players for the Spartans don't have anywhere near the athleticism of Dawson, and that's going to be sorely missed against a team like Memphis, which why I'm taking the Tigers.
The bottom half of the bracket is all about Marquette and Missouri, either of who could be a Final Four team and neither of which will have any issue reaching the Sweet 16 to face each other. I give the edge to Mizzou because this game is going to be all about fire power and Missouri has just a bit more. This might be the best game of the entire tournament. And as far as early upsets in this region the only one I have outside of the Memphis thing is Virginia over Florida. I once considered Florida a sleeper - and still would - but this matchup against UVA is a killer for them. The Gators rely on the outside shot, which is what the Cavs completely excel at shutting down, and they don't play nearly good enough defense to make Virginia's lousy offense pay, and they don't have anybody who can handle Mike Scott. I considered Long Beach but I think New Mexico is too hot and too good, and I was planning on having Murray State lose their first round matchup but then they pulled Colorado State and well, that ain't gonna happen.
EAST REGION:
Maybe the biggest question of the whole tournament is what to make of Syracuse now that Fab Melo is suspended for the tournament. There is going to be a tendency to overreact, such as the line on their opening game against Asheville falling from -17 to -15.5 (note: hit that -15.5 hard), but don't forget Syracuse is a very balanced, very good team, and even though their defense takes a pretty big hit with Melo out their offense is still going to be top notch. They can easily make it to the Final Four, depending on match-ups. So let's look.
One of the worst match-ups for the Orange could come in the second round against Kansas State. The Wildcats are big and physical (which is why they swept Missouri) and absolutely crush on the offensive boards (6th in the country), which just happens to be Syracuse's biggest weakness (341st) and that was with Melo. If K-State could shoot a little bit I'd feel a lot better, but between that and the fact and that I'm not even sure they can beat Southern Miss (although I think they probably can) means I'm pushing the Cuse through to the Elite 8 after beating Wisconsin in the Sweet 16 (I hate them, but I think they're peaking at the right time and Vandy is always ripe to throw up on themselves in the tournament).
In the bottom of the bracket I also see the seeds holding up and Ohio State and Florida State meeting in the Sweet 16 (only upset I have here is WVU over Gonzaga), which means I have seeds 1-4 in the round of 16 in this region which is lame but it's what I see. Both these teams are very flawed offensively, but both play tremendous defense, so I expect this one to stay in the 50s and be close the whole way, but with FSU clicking on all cylinders right now I'll give them the nod. And this is also where I see Syracuse's run ending, with FSU making the Final Four. The Seminoles are one of the biggest teams in the country with a defense that can contain the Orange, and with their shooting starting to come around they can get their shots against that zone. The Seminoles in the Final Four could only happen if they were the least flawed of a bunch of flawed high seeds, and that's exactly what we got here once Melo got suspended (Syracuse was my championship pick prior to the news). It's going to be the winner of that FSU/Ohio State game, bank on it.
MIDWEST:
This one is pretty clear cut, and I can't see any reason this shouldn't come down to Kansas vs. UNC in the Elite 8. The winner of Creighton/Alabama is probably the biggest threat to beat UNC before then (I have Creighton, but neither one is going to beat the Heels) because the bottom half of that bracket is just brutal. Both Temple and Michigan are ripe to be upset in the first round, but with their opponents being Ohio and the winner of Cal/USF it just ain't going to happen. I put Michigan in the Sweet 16 by default, but that's just a terrible grouping of teams. Those who whine about UNC getting favorable treatment, well, you kind of got a point.
The bottom is where I see some really wacky shit happening, with all three first round games outside of Kansas being upsets (NC State over SDSU, Belmont over G-Town, and Purdue over St. Mary's). I think the Boilers are better than the Gaels and NC State is peaking while SDSU is fading after doing it with smoke and mirrors most of the way, but the Belmont one probably needs more of an explanation than that. For me it's not so much a matter of matchups or statistical analysis, but this one is more of a "feel" game for me. Belmont is loaded with upper classmen and has building towards this for years, while Georgetown pretty much had to reset itself after last year and losing three top players to graduation. They've had a good year despite that, but as stupid as it sounds this one feels like destiny. Should be epic, and if Belmont can take care of G-Town I think they take down NC State as well before falling in the Sweet 16 to Kansas.
As far as that Elite 8 game goes between the Jayhawks and Tar Heels, it's weird because although I'm usually a Jayhawk hater dating back to Jacque Vaughn and Jeff Boschee and Eric Chenoweth and all those other nerds I'm on the bandwagon this year. I absolutely love Thomas Robinson in a Blake Griffin (in college) kind of way, although he takes Griffin's size and athleticism and adds in an actual post game which is why he reminds me so much of Hakeem Olajuwon and I don't care who knows it. Because of that and because I've seen North Carolina lose focus way too many times this year, I'm taking the Jayhawks. Of course it also wouldn't surprise me to see UNC run the table the whole way, but I'm betting on Kansas (plus Self is a better game coach than Williams). I just see Thomas Robinson doing a Danny Manning here, even if trusting Kansas in an NCAA Tournament is usually a foolish decision.
From there I have Kentucky over Kansas in the Final, which makes me sick because I hate thinking about watching Calipari win one. Hopefully somebody can take them down, although if it's Wichita I'm going to hate myself for chickening out.
Finally, since I promised, here is that almond crusted fish recipe. I made Grouper, but if you're in Minnesota it would probably work on tilapia or whatever else you can get. Try it. It'll change your life.
1/2 c. almonds chopped fine
1/4 c. olive oil
1/2 t. allspice
1/2 t. cayenne pepper
1 t. sea salt
1 t. black pepper
1 t. paprika
Mix all that together and then roll the fish around in it so it's got a nice count of the almonds. Heat a pan to high and heat your oven to 400 degrees. Throw the fish on the pan for 1 minute on each side to get a nice sear, then throw in the oven for 10 minutes or so depending on thickness. Serve.
So good you'll go burn down your local Red Lobster.
Thursday, September 8, 2011
DWG Football Preview
It's time for the award-winning, critically acclaimed, and publicly loved DWG NFL preview. I've gotten almost everything right I've written but I'm going to change it up anyway. Here are your teams in order from worst to best with a little info added in.
#32 Seattle Seahawks - I can't come up with a single redeeming thing for this team outside of Marcus Trufant and that the all-time face of their franchise is a white WR. Every single player on this team is a complete retread and not even the good kind. Who's their best player? Marshawn Lynch? Just brutal. And are they really planning on building the offense around T-Jax and Sid Rice? Seriously, if Rice breaks 800 yards receiving I'll volunteer to sleep with the girlfriends of every blog reader, just to teach myself a lesson. Seriously though, he won't get 800. 600 would be surprising.
#31 Buffalo Bills - They might win fewer games than Seattle based on the team's divisions but I think they're just slightly better. Which they should be since they've been rebuilding for 10 years at least at this point. Now C.J. Spiller is a bust and Ryan Fitzpatrick is still their quarterback. Looks like everything is going according to plan. Oh, and Stevie Johnson is a mirage who is terrible. FACT.
#30 Cincinnati Bengals - They get the edge over these other two shitboxes merely because they should at least be a little bit fun since they have rookie Andy Dalton starting at QB, rookie A.J. Green at WR, and some other youngsters sprinkled about. You'll at least be able to imagine a successful future while watching a terrible season. And all the while Carson Palmer will be sitting in a penthouse somewhere drinking bourbon, stroking his cat, and cackling maniacally. There will also probably be a roomful of strippers involved there somewhere. Maybe a Kardashian. What am I, his biographer?
#29 Washington Redskins - Somebody want to tell me why there isn't more negative energy being tossed at this group of sad sacks? Look at this roster. There best offensive player is either Santana Moss, who is 50 years old and has been consistently slightly above mediocre for 10 years, or Tim Hightower who couldn't beat out Beanie Wells or a retardedly old Edge James to win a starting job. That's it. A couple decent defensive players I guess, but both Fred Smoot and Rex Grossman are involved, so that's probably not what you really want.
#28 San Francisco 49ers - Alex Smith? Really? Again? I guess there's something to be said for loyalty but at this point it's kind of like that chick who keeps falling down the stairs and running into door knobs but keeps coming back for more. Actually that part is commendable. Never mind. Anyway it sucks because Frank Gore and Patrick Willis deserve better. I also just checked their depth chart and apparently Ted Ginn beat out both Braylon Edwards and Michael Crabtree for the starting flanker role, so that can't be good. Nice career, Crabtree. This guy is more disappointing than my life. If anybody is in a fantasy keeper league and owns him they should probably try to trade him immediately, probably to someone dumb like me. (Bear -> text me).
#27 Miami Dolphins - Did you draft any Dolphins in your fantasy league? Because if you did something must gone spectacularly wrong. This whole Chad Henne vortex they've somehow trapped themselves in is fascinating. How many years are you going to go, "Well, I guess we'll go with Henne." It's fascinating. It's like watching someone convince himself to hit on a 17. Oh, wait, never mind. I forgot they signed Reggie Bush, and that's probably the answer. 11 wins, minimum.
#26 Carolina Panthers - based on some of the other power rankings I've looked at I'm overrating these guys but I'm pretty positive that I'm right and they're wrong. All the other teams I have worse than them have no discernible strength, while the Panthers have two kick-as RBs. That's more than any of these other shitheads have. Who really cares whether it's Claussen or Newton - they're both going to suck and both going to have good moments, but both will spend most of their time handing off. One thing's certain - I'm looking way forward to all the racial issues the media can dig up on the Newton/Claussen QB controversey. Should be a riot.
#25 Cleveland Browns - It amazes me that people think Peyton Hillis is good. He's like, a poor man's Mike Alstott and Alstott was overrated. Just another overhyped white dude who everybody loves because he's such a gamer and plays the game the right way. Chris Berman must have a constant erection knowing he's in the league. Guess what? Montario Hardesty is 10x better, he just can't stop getting hurt. He's like the black Fred Taylor.
#24 Jacksonville Jaguars - Speaking of Fred Taylor we might as well put the Jags here, although I'm thinking they might actually be worse than this especially since their QB controversy is going to be between Luke McCown and Blaine Gabbert this year. And, by the way, if Gabbert can't win that one by week 4 they might as well just try to trade him because Luke McCown has got to be the shittiest QB in the league since T.J. Rubely.
#23 Denver Broncos - This ranking is only assuming they start Kyle Orton, if they switch it over to Tim Tebow they're probably a top 5 team. What? You're not buying it? Why do you hate America and Jesus? What did apple pie do to you? Why are you so afraid of a successful athlete who is also deeply religious? You just wait until the first time he throws and errant pass and magical baby santa jesus reaches down and moves the ball with his mind just like Carrie over the d-back and into the hands of sexy Eric Decker for a TD. Tebow's combination of grittiness, hustlitude, gamership, and magic god powers is something we've never seen before in this league. If whoever the Denver coach can handle the awesome power and responsibility of handling this awesome power the rest of the league is fucked. Because they all love Satan.
#22 Oakland Raiders - I have no idea how the Raiders ended up this high. I think I forgot about them until now. This is a terrible team who lost its best player and is still starting Jason Campbell at QB, the same Campbell who couldn't hold off Rex Grossman. And when Campbell inevitably fails, partially because he's throwing to Darius Heyward-Bay and Jacoby Ford who are fast but can't be definitively proven to have arms, who's waiting in the wings to save the day? Kyle Boller! But never fear because they also used a third round pick next year on Terrelle Pryor! Seriously, what a train wreck. And they keep effing around with the one good thing they have in McFadden. I think they need to contract the Raiders. We have too many football teams anyway.
#21 Kansas City Chiefs - Holy crap are these guys getting way too much credit. Still Matt Cassel, right? He and Dwayne Bowe both suck. Once team's realized Bowe was the only decent receiver he was completely unable to get open at the end of the year. Guess who their #2 WR is this year? Nobody knows because they all suck. You know who else sucks? Jamaal Charles. Why is everyone making out with him this year? He's terrible. The Chiefs have a good line and that's the entire reason he had any success last year. Can they repeat? Who knows, but it's doubtful, especially once teams realize you could just have Cassel and Bowe play catch on the sidelines and they'd probably complete less than 50% of their passes, even fewer after Bowe got bored. Suck-time.
#20 Tennessee Titans - This team might have a little bit of sleeper potential, if only because they have 2 weapons who can score from anywhere at any time in Chris Johnson and Kenny Britt. Of course, Britt is also at least a 50/50 shot to land in jail at some point this year so who really knows?
#19 Arizona Cardinals - Let the Kevin Kolb era begin! How exciting. A crappy back-up QB who has shown flashes of brilliance is jumped on by a team desperate for QB help that gives up way too much to land him. Scott Mitchell, anybody? I really hope not because I'm going to have to ride Kolb in our keeper league until Peyton "Morneau" Manning gets his shit together, but I feel like there's a whole lot more confidence in Kolb than there probably should be. Plus he's on the Cardinals, where QBs go to die unless they strongly believe their lord and savior will save and protect them like Kurt Warner did. Anybody know if Kolb is a holy roller? This is important.
#18 Chicago Bears - The single greatest travesty in our lifetime is that these guys won the division last year. Between them and Seattle the NFC playoffs last season had to have been the weakest crop of all-time. And there's really no reason for optimism. Roy Williams is the big upgrade? That's the big change? A guy who has already burned out on two other teams, both of which gave him situations where he should have/could have flourished? Gross. And I even like Jay Cutler but when you're giving him Williams, a kick returner, and two sub-par wideouts (Bennett and Knox) to throw to? Gross. Plus they got rid of G-Reg. There's just nothing here.
#17 Minnesota Vikings - Hell I don't know, right here seems about right. They aren't going to be a playoff team but they should be better than the crappy Bears just based on having A.P. alone. I don't know what McNabb has left but he at least takes them from a rebuilding worthless year to having an outside longshot at a playoff berth. If the o-line can figure out to play that is. Most likely scenario is McNabb is out with a broken leg by Week 6 and we get to very quickly see exactly what they have in Ponder. My guess is a nerdier Colt McCoy.
#16 Indianapolis Colts - I have no idea how to slot this team with all the Manning hullabaloo so I'll just place them right in the middle. When/if Manning plays they're a top 5 team, without him they're a bottom 5 team - which is pretty amazing in and of itself. So many ways this could play out, but what I'm envisioning is that they completely suck with Collins to nightmarish levels and Peyton isn't ready to play until around week 8 or so when they're already 1-7. Why play him then? Just continue on this season and get the #1 or #2 draft pick and get an immediate impact guy for next year - just like what the Spurs did with David Robinson and ended up with Tim Duncan. [note: I am seeing now that everyone is making this comparison, but I'm leaving it in because it's perfect.] Won't be quite the same since one guy (except maybe QB) can't have anywhere near the impact on a football team as a basketball team, but same principle. Andrew Luck, Manning heir apparent? Could be.
#15 Houston Texans - This is the year the Texans finally take that next step ha ha ha ha who am I kidding? I think everyone who has ever written about Houston in the last 3-4 years has started their writings with those same 11 words and we're still waiting. I think we always will be. There must be something inside of Schaub that's broken because he can put up big numbers, he's got great weapons (AJ and Owen Daniels are both among the best), but they just can't get over the hump. Maybe it's a curse. I don't know what it is but on paper they look like a contender every year, and then every year they go out and lose. Oh, and Arian Foster sucks. He's like a poor man's Jamaal Charles.
#14 New York Giants - I wasn't a fan of the Giants this year in the beginning, and now you pile on all these defensive injuries and it's going to be even rougher for them (both their first and second round picks, both defenders, are out for the year probably, there cornerbacks are out for the year, and they'll likely be without both starting defensive ends for a few weeks). They'll be pesky and Eli will probably have a game or two where he throws for 350 and a few scores, which would be almost impossible NOT to do when you have the best WR in the game, Hakeem Nicks, running routes in front of you, but this is probably not a playoff team and definitely not any sort of serious contender.
#13 Dallas Cowboys - I'm excited to see how this team comes together because I think they have two players who have chances to be a couple of the most exciting in the league - Dez Bryant and Felix Jones. Don't forget, Darren McFadden got all the press on that Arkansas team, but Felix was right there with him and averaged more yards per carry by almost 50%. And Dez Bryant is the next Hakeem Nicks. Too bad Romo is involved.
#12 New York Jets - Another tremendously overrated team, and I don't care how many regular season games they win kicking the crap out of the Bills and Dolphins this team is terrible on offense. Terrible. Their defense might and probably will get them into the playoffs but that offense is stinkier than my softball bag which currently contains at least 5 pairs of dirty socks. Seriously in like, 3 years we will all be laughing about how the Jets though Mark Sanchez was a franchise quarterback when he's backing up Rex Grossman.
#11 St. Louis Rams - My sleeper team. I think Sam Bradford is a stud QB in the making, Stephen Jackson is one of the best all-around RBs since Thurman Thomas, Amendola and Sims-Walker give Bradford reliable targets, and Brandon Gibson is set up to have a breakout season and reach DeSean Jackson levels. I also confess I don't shit about their defense, so this could be a really stupid prediction, but I remain convinced this offense is about to breakout.
#10 Detroit Lions - Yes I'm buying in. I know it's always dangerous to jump on the same "sleeper" or "media darling" bandwagon that everybody else is on but this team just has a ton of talent at this point. Stafford looks great so far and has maybe the best wideout in the game to throw too and even though Javid Best isn't going to be Walter Payton he's not going to be Chris Perry either (I really thought Perry was going to break the curse of the 1st round Michigan RB, but alas). Donkey Kong Sue anchors a really, really good defensive line, but it, like everything else on this team, will depend on health. Nick Fairley is hurt right now and Stafford, Calvin, and Best have all proven themselves to be brittle.
#9 Tampa Bay Bucs - Another "media sleeper", but this one seems to have people more split with half loving their potential and the other half expecting them to fall off a cliff - obviously I'm in the former group. I don't really know why, I just really like Josh Freeman. He's got an unusual combination of being a pocket passer while also being a really good athlete, and you just don't see that combination all that much outside of West Canaan High. So I like it. Also like the guys they've surrounded him with in Blount and Mike Williams (the good one, not the fat one). And they're always good defensively so really, no reason they shouldn't be in the playoffs.
#8 San Diego Chargers - They're always going to be considered a contender because they play in a horrible division with a bunch of terrible teams so they're automatically going to pick up a pretty good number of wins, and that also means you'll never quite know if they're good or not until they flame out in the playoffs again. I started to write another sentence like 3 different times but they were all stupid. So this is all you're getting.
#7 Baltimore Ravens - They way I see it you basically have 7 legit Super Bowl contenders and they start right here with Baltimore. The defense is always good and keeps chugging along and Ray Rice is probably the best running back in the entire league. The biggest question, as always, is QB play and what can you count on Joe Flacco for? If he can Dilfer it for an entire year they'll be a contender, while if he can take a step up and become an actual weapon on offense they could end up being the best team in the league. Probably, though, he'll continue to suck and cost them a few games and then kill their playoff chances. Freakin' Flacco.
#6 New Orleans Saints - If they can figure out how to stop anybody they are going to be just as tough as any team in the league and could be the best in the league because Drew Brees is really incredible, especially considering none of his targets are particularly talented and yes I'm talking about you Colston. It's also nice to see they got rid of that twinkled toed dandy Reggie Bush and added a power back in Mark Ingram. Who was roundly stuffed on the final play of the game tonight from the one yard line, so maybe they should have just kept Reggie and drafted some kind of defensive player, even though that's kind of boring.
#5 Atlanta Falcons - Not really much doubt that they're going "all in" after giving up a shit ton to land Julio Jones in the draft. I think the guy is going to be a stud and him across from Roddy White gives Matt Ryan (note: stop with the Matty Ice thing) two awesome weapons, but Tony Gonzalez is getting awfully old and Michael Turner couldn't catch a pass with duct tape so there are still questions. They also had to ignore defense in order to make the offense better. They could make a pretty good run, but expect a good amount of 42-35 type games. They remind me a bit of the '98 Vikings. Moment of silence, please.
#4 Philadelphia Eagles - The only thing keeping these guys from being higher on this list is offensive line questions. They were already stacked on both offense and defense, and then added Nnamdi Asomugha and Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie which is going to make them really damn hard to pass on. McCoy, Vick, Maclin, and Jackson give them an insanely high-powered offense, but if the O-Line can't protect Vick and he gets hurt they're screwed. After trading Kevin Kolb away the new back-up is Vince Young. LOL.
#3 New England Patriots - Am I crazy or is nobody talking about these guys? Once again on paper they don't exactly blow you away with the oldest wideouts in history in Ochocinco and Deion Branch and there's no definitive lead back but haven't we learned by now that the Patriots are like Wisconsin basketball? As long as Brady and Belicheck are around the players don't matter because the system is fine tuned to near perfection and they always load up on guys who fit their needs even if they aren't the best on paper - just like Bo Ryan and the Badgers. And both teams are equally as irritating. And Tom Brady and Bo Ryan look like twins.
#2 Green Bay Packers - I actually bumped them up a couple of spots after watching them dismantle the Saints because I'm starting to suspect that Aaron Rodgers might be playing this game on a whole different level than everybody else - like a Peyton Manning/Tom Brady level. That of course really sucks because I hate the Packers like people from Wisconsin hate books. Don't forget though that it isn't like they rolled through the league last year, they just hot and a little bit lucky in the playoffs. Now, if they pile up a 14-2 record or something then we're all in trouble because they're young and good and if that's the case we may be looking at a bit of a dynasty here. And if that happens the terrorists win.
#1 Pittsburgh Steelers - The most boring consistently good team ever. But they're always a Super Bowl contender and a league leader in date rape. They even have a good young running back in Mendy but he someone manages to be boring too. At least on the field, his off the field tweets about Bin Laden were pretty sweet. Thankfully they're taking a step in the right direction by moving away from old boring Hines Ward and moving on to superfly Mike Wallace who I secretly love. Plus that defense is always awesome, and always the most likely to kill someone on the field someday.
NFC Playoff teams: Rams, Eagles, Packers, Saints, Bucs, Falcons
AFC Playoff teams: Steelers, Chargers, Patriots, Texans, Ravens, Jets
NFC championship: Falcons over Packers
AFC championship: Steelers over Patriots
Superbowl: Steelers over Falcons
#32 Seattle Seahawks - I can't come up with a single redeeming thing for this team outside of Marcus Trufant and that the all-time face of their franchise is a white WR. Every single player on this team is a complete retread and not even the good kind. Who's their best player? Marshawn Lynch? Just brutal. And are they really planning on building the offense around T-Jax and Sid Rice? Seriously, if Rice breaks 800 yards receiving I'll volunteer to sleep with the girlfriends of every blog reader, just to teach myself a lesson. Seriously though, he won't get 800. 600 would be surprising.
#31 Buffalo Bills - They might win fewer games than Seattle based on the team's divisions but I think they're just slightly better. Which they should be since they've been rebuilding for 10 years at least at this point. Now C.J. Spiller is a bust and Ryan Fitzpatrick is still their quarterback. Looks like everything is going according to plan. Oh, and Stevie Johnson is a mirage who is terrible. FACT.
#30 Cincinnati Bengals - They get the edge over these other two shitboxes merely because they should at least be a little bit fun since they have rookie Andy Dalton starting at QB, rookie A.J. Green at WR, and some other youngsters sprinkled about. You'll at least be able to imagine a successful future while watching a terrible season. And all the while Carson Palmer will be sitting in a penthouse somewhere drinking bourbon, stroking his cat, and cackling maniacally. There will also probably be a roomful of strippers involved there somewhere. Maybe a Kardashian. What am I, his biographer?
#29 Washington Redskins - Somebody want to tell me why there isn't more negative energy being tossed at this group of sad sacks? Look at this roster. There best offensive player is either Santana Moss, who is 50 years old and has been consistently slightly above mediocre for 10 years, or Tim Hightower who couldn't beat out Beanie Wells or a retardedly old Edge James to win a starting job. That's it. A couple decent defensive players I guess, but both Fred Smoot and Rex Grossman are involved, so that's probably not what you really want.
#28 San Francisco 49ers - Alex Smith? Really? Again? I guess there's something to be said for loyalty but at this point it's kind of like that chick who keeps falling down the stairs and running into door knobs but keeps coming back for more. Actually that part is commendable. Never mind. Anyway it sucks because Frank Gore and Patrick Willis deserve better. I also just checked their depth chart and apparently Ted Ginn beat out both Braylon Edwards and Michael Crabtree for the starting flanker role, so that can't be good. Nice career, Crabtree. This guy is more disappointing than my life. If anybody is in a fantasy keeper league and owns him they should probably try to trade him immediately, probably to someone dumb like me. (Bear -> text me).
#27 Miami Dolphins - Did you draft any Dolphins in your fantasy league? Because if you did something must gone spectacularly wrong. This whole Chad Henne vortex they've somehow trapped themselves in is fascinating. How many years are you going to go, "Well, I guess we'll go with Henne." It's fascinating. It's like watching someone convince himself to hit on a 17. Oh, wait, never mind. I forgot they signed Reggie Bush, and that's probably the answer. 11 wins, minimum.
#26 Carolina Panthers - based on some of the other power rankings I've looked at I'm overrating these guys but I'm pretty positive that I'm right and they're wrong. All the other teams I have worse than them have no discernible strength, while the Panthers have two kick-as RBs. That's more than any of these other shitheads have. Who really cares whether it's Claussen or Newton - they're both going to suck and both going to have good moments, but both will spend most of their time handing off. One thing's certain - I'm looking way forward to all the racial issues the media can dig up on the Newton/Claussen QB controversey. Should be a riot.
#25 Cleveland Browns - It amazes me that people think Peyton Hillis is good. He's like, a poor man's Mike Alstott and Alstott was overrated. Just another overhyped white dude who everybody loves because he's such a gamer and plays the game the right way. Chris Berman must have a constant erection knowing he's in the league. Guess what? Montario Hardesty is 10x better, he just can't stop getting hurt. He's like the black Fred Taylor.
#24 Jacksonville Jaguars - Speaking of Fred Taylor we might as well put the Jags here, although I'm thinking they might actually be worse than this especially since their QB controversy is going to be between Luke McCown and Blaine Gabbert this year. And, by the way, if Gabbert can't win that one by week 4 they might as well just try to trade him because Luke McCown has got to be the shittiest QB in the league since T.J. Rubely.
#23 Denver Broncos - This ranking is only assuming they start Kyle Orton, if they switch it over to Tim Tebow they're probably a top 5 team. What? You're not buying it? Why do you hate America and Jesus? What did apple pie do to you? Why are you so afraid of a successful athlete who is also deeply religious? You just wait until the first time he throws and errant pass and magical baby santa jesus reaches down and moves the ball with his mind just like Carrie over the d-back and into the hands of sexy Eric Decker for a TD. Tebow's combination of grittiness, hustlitude, gamership, and magic god powers is something we've never seen before in this league. If whoever the Denver coach can handle the awesome power and responsibility of handling this awesome power the rest of the league is fucked. Because they all love Satan.
#22 Oakland Raiders - I have no idea how the Raiders ended up this high. I think I forgot about them until now. This is a terrible team who lost its best player and is still starting Jason Campbell at QB, the same Campbell who couldn't hold off Rex Grossman. And when Campbell inevitably fails, partially because he's throwing to Darius Heyward-Bay and Jacoby Ford who are fast but can't be definitively proven to have arms, who's waiting in the wings to save the day? Kyle Boller! But never fear because they also used a third round pick next year on Terrelle Pryor! Seriously, what a train wreck. And they keep effing around with the one good thing they have in McFadden. I think they need to contract the Raiders. We have too many football teams anyway.
#21 Kansas City Chiefs - Holy crap are these guys getting way too much credit. Still Matt Cassel, right? He and Dwayne Bowe both suck. Once team's realized Bowe was the only decent receiver he was completely unable to get open at the end of the year. Guess who their #2 WR is this year? Nobody knows because they all suck. You know who else sucks? Jamaal Charles. Why is everyone making out with him this year? He's terrible. The Chiefs have a good line and that's the entire reason he had any success last year. Can they repeat? Who knows, but it's doubtful, especially once teams realize you could just have Cassel and Bowe play catch on the sidelines and they'd probably complete less than 50% of their passes, even fewer after Bowe got bored. Suck-time.
#20 Tennessee Titans - This team might have a little bit of sleeper potential, if only because they have 2 weapons who can score from anywhere at any time in Chris Johnson and Kenny Britt. Of course, Britt is also at least a 50/50 shot to land in jail at some point this year so who really knows?
#19 Arizona Cardinals - Let the Kevin Kolb era begin! How exciting. A crappy back-up QB who has shown flashes of brilliance is jumped on by a team desperate for QB help that gives up way too much to land him. Scott Mitchell, anybody? I really hope not because I'm going to have to ride Kolb in our keeper league until Peyton "Morneau" Manning gets his shit together, but I feel like there's a whole lot more confidence in Kolb than there probably should be. Plus he's on the Cardinals, where QBs go to die unless they strongly believe their lord and savior will save and protect them like Kurt Warner did. Anybody know if Kolb is a holy roller? This is important.
#18 Chicago Bears - The single greatest travesty in our lifetime is that these guys won the division last year. Between them and Seattle the NFC playoffs last season had to have been the weakest crop of all-time. And there's really no reason for optimism. Roy Williams is the big upgrade? That's the big change? A guy who has already burned out on two other teams, both of which gave him situations where he should have/could have flourished? Gross. And I even like Jay Cutler but when you're giving him Williams, a kick returner, and two sub-par wideouts (Bennett and Knox) to throw to? Gross. Plus they got rid of G-Reg. There's just nothing here.
#17 Minnesota Vikings - Hell I don't know, right here seems about right. They aren't going to be a playoff team but they should be better than the crappy Bears just based on having A.P. alone. I don't know what McNabb has left but he at least takes them from a rebuilding worthless year to having an outside longshot at a playoff berth. If the o-line can figure out to play that is. Most likely scenario is McNabb is out with a broken leg by Week 6 and we get to very quickly see exactly what they have in Ponder. My guess is a nerdier Colt McCoy.
#16 Indianapolis Colts - I have no idea how to slot this team with all the Manning hullabaloo so I'll just place them right in the middle. When/if Manning plays they're a top 5 team, without him they're a bottom 5 team - which is pretty amazing in and of itself. So many ways this could play out, but what I'm envisioning is that they completely suck with Collins to nightmarish levels and Peyton isn't ready to play until around week 8 or so when they're already 1-7. Why play him then? Just continue on this season and get the #1 or #2 draft pick and get an immediate impact guy for next year - just like what the Spurs did with David Robinson and ended up with Tim Duncan. [note: I am seeing now that everyone is making this comparison, but I'm leaving it in because it's perfect.] Won't be quite the same since one guy (except maybe QB) can't have anywhere near the impact on a football team as a basketball team, but same principle. Andrew Luck, Manning heir apparent? Could be.
#15 Houston Texans - This is the year the Texans finally take that next step ha ha ha ha who am I kidding? I think everyone who has ever written about Houston in the last 3-4 years has started their writings with those same 11 words and we're still waiting. I think we always will be. There must be something inside of Schaub that's broken because he can put up big numbers, he's got great weapons (AJ and Owen Daniels are both among the best), but they just can't get over the hump. Maybe it's a curse. I don't know what it is but on paper they look like a contender every year, and then every year they go out and lose. Oh, and Arian Foster sucks. He's like a poor man's Jamaal Charles.
#14 New York Giants - I wasn't a fan of the Giants this year in the beginning, and now you pile on all these defensive injuries and it's going to be even rougher for them (both their first and second round picks, both defenders, are out for the year probably, there cornerbacks are out for the year, and they'll likely be without both starting defensive ends for a few weeks). They'll be pesky and Eli will probably have a game or two where he throws for 350 and a few scores, which would be almost impossible NOT to do when you have the best WR in the game, Hakeem Nicks, running routes in front of you, but this is probably not a playoff team and definitely not any sort of serious contender.
#13 Dallas Cowboys - I'm excited to see how this team comes together because I think they have two players who have chances to be a couple of the most exciting in the league - Dez Bryant and Felix Jones. Don't forget, Darren McFadden got all the press on that Arkansas team, but Felix was right there with him and averaged more yards per carry by almost 50%. And Dez Bryant is the next Hakeem Nicks. Too bad Romo is involved.
#12 New York Jets - Another tremendously overrated team, and I don't care how many regular season games they win kicking the crap out of the Bills and Dolphins this team is terrible on offense. Terrible. Their defense might and probably will get them into the playoffs but that offense is stinkier than my softball bag which currently contains at least 5 pairs of dirty socks. Seriously in like, 3 years we will all be laughing about how the Jets though Mark Sanchez was a franchise quarterback when he's backing up Rex Grossman.
#11 St. Louis Rams - My sleeper team. I think Sam Bradford is a stud QB in the making, Stephen Jackson is one of the best all-around RBs since Thurman Thomas, Amendola and Sims-Walker give Bradford reliable targets, and Brandon Gibson is set up to have a breakout season and reach DeSean Jackson levels. I also confess I don't shit about their defense, so this could be a really stupid prediction, but I remain convinced this offense is about to breakout.
#10 Detroit Lions - Yes I'm buying in. I know it's always dangerous to jump on the same "sleeper" or "media darling" bandwagon that everybody else is on but this team just has a ton of talent at this point. Stafford looks great so far and has maybe the best wideout in the game to throw too and even though Javid Best isn't going to be Walter Payton he's not going to be Chris Perry either (I really thought Perry was going to break the curse of the 1st round Michigan RB, but alas). Donkey Kong Sue anchors a really, really good defensive line, but it, like everything else on this team, will depend on health. Nick Fairley is hurt right now and Stafford, Calvin, and Best have all proven themselves to be brittle.
#9 Tampa Bay Bucs - Another "media sleeper", but this one seems to have people more split with half loving their potential and the other half expecting them to fall off a cliff - obviously I'm in the former group. I don't really know why, I just really like Josh Freeman. He's got an unusual combination of being a pocket passer while also being a really good athlete, and you just don't see that combination all that much outside of West Canaan High. So I like it. Also like the guys they've surrounded him with in Blount and Mike Williams (the good one, not the fat one). And they're always good defensively so really, no reason they shouldn't be in the playoffs.
#8 San Diego Chargers - They're always going to be considered a contender because they play in a horrible division with a bunch of terrible teams so they're automatically going to pick up a pretty good number of wins, and that also means you'll never quite know if they're good or not until they flame out in the playoffs again. I started to write another sentence like 3 different times but they were all stupid. So this is all you're getting.
#7 Baltimore Ravens - They way I see it you basically have 7 legit Super Bowl contenders and they start right here with Baltimore. The defense is always good and keeps chugging along and Ray Rice is probably the best running back in the entire league. The biggest question, as always, is QB play and what can you count on Joe Flacco for? If he can Dilfer it for an entire year they'll be a contender, while if he can take a step up and become an actual weapon on offense they could end up being the best team in the league. Probably, though, he'll continue to suck and cost them a few games and then kill their playoff chances. Freakin' Flacco.
#6 New Orleans Saints - If they can figure out how to stop anybody they are going to be just as tough as any team in the league and could be the best in the league because Drew Brees is really incredible, especially considering none of his targets are particularly talented and yes I'm talking about you Colston. It's also nice to see they got rid of that twinkled toed dandy Reggie Bush and added a power back in Mark Ingram. Who was roundly stuffed on the final play of the game tonight from the one yard line, so maybe they should have just kept Reggie and drafted some kind of defensive player, even though that's kind of boring.
#5 Atlanta Falcons - Not really much doubt that they're going "all in" after giving up a shit ton to land Julio Jones in the draft. I think the guy is going to be a stud and him across from Roddy White gives Matt Ryan (note: stop with the Matty Ice thing) two awesome weapons, but Tony Gonzalez is getting awfully old and Michael Turner couldn't catch a pass with duct tape so there are still questions. They also had to ignore defense in order to make the offense better. They could make a pretty good run, but expect a good amount of 42-35 type games. They remind me a bit of the '98 Vikings. Moment of silence, please.
#4 Philadelphia Eagles - The only thing keeping these guys from being higher on this list is offensive line questions. They were already stacked on both offense and defense, and then added Nnamdi Asomugha and Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie which is going to make them really damn hard to pass on. McCoy, Vick, Maclin, and Jackson give them an insanely high-powered offense, but if the O-Line can't protect Vick and he gets hurt they're screwed. After trading Kevin Kolb away the new back-up is Vince Young. LOL.
#3 New England Patriots - Am I crazy or is nobody talking about these guys? Once again on paper they don't exactly blow you away with the oldest wideouts in history in Ochocinco and Deion Branch and there's no definitive lead back but haven't we learned by now that the Patriots are like Wisconsin basketball? As long as Brady and Belicheck are around the players don't matter because the system is fine tuned to near perfection and they always load up on guys who fit their needs even if they aren't the best on paper - just like Bo Ryan and the Badgers. And both teams are equally as irritating. And Tom Brady and Bo Ryan look like twins.
#2 Green Bay Packers - I actually bumped them up a couple of spots after watching them dismantle the Saints because I'm starting to suspect that Aaron Rodgers might be playing this game on a whole different level than everybody else - like a Peyton Manning/Tom Brady level. That of course really sucks because I hate the Packers like people from Wisconsin hate books. Don't forget though that it isn't like they rolled through the league last year, they just hot and a little bit lucky in the playoffs. Now, if they pile up a 14-2 record or something then we're all in trouble because they're young and good and if that's the case we may be looking at a bit of a dynasty here. And if that happens the terrorists win.
#1 Pittsburgh Steelers - The most boring consistently good team ever. But they're always a Super Bowl contender and a league leader in date rape. They even have a good young running back in Mendy but he someone manages to be boring too. At least on the field, his off the field tweets about Bin Laden were pretty sweet. Thankfully they're taking a step in the right direction by moving away from old boring Hines Ward and moving on to superfly Mike Wallace who I secretly love. Plus that defense is always awesome, and always the most likely to kill someone on the field someday.
NFC Playoff teams: Rams, Eagles, Packers, Saints, Bucs, Falcons
AFC Playoff teams: Steelers, Chargers, Patriots, Texans, Ravens, Jets
NFC championship: Falcons over Packers
AFC championship: Steelers over Patriots
Superbowl: Steelers over Falcons
Tuesday, June 21, 2011
Tuesday's Talkings (mostly nba draft stuff)
Thanks to stupid softball I won't be able to watch the draft live (although I am tivo'ing with a hope for a live blog up by Monday) so I was going to do a mock draft. Then I got about 7 picks into it and got really bored. Instead of a whole mock, here are some things to watch for:
- How the Wolves screw up the #2 pick in a 2-player draft. Trade for Roy Hibbert? Trade with Kevin Love for Pau Gasol? Trade for Marcin Gortat? Draft some foreign player? Stay tuned, it's the most intriguing part of the draft.
- Utah to trade the #3 pick. This is a two player draft and the Jazz apparently can't come to a consensus on a player, so it makes sense for them to move backwards. If they don't, look for them to take Kanter.
- If they take Kanter, Toronto will start salivating at getting Knight at #5 since their current starting PG is Jose freaking Calderon. I would also expect Cleveland to get a ton of calls from teams looking to get that #4 pick, knowing the Cavs won't take Knight when they just took Irving. They aren't the T-Wolves for god's sake.
- How far with Jonas Valanciunas slip? I won't pretend to know anything about him, but he's supposed to be the best Euro this year (which, let's be honest, is a little like being the most honorable Lannister - or the least douchiest Blue Devil if you prefer your analogies less nerdy). But Chad Ford has been reporting lately that there are some issues with his buyout from commiesylvania which may cause him to slip. Personally I'm betting, if the pick isn't traded, that the Cavs take him in kind of a "we already have our sure thing in Irving, let's go for the home run" mode. A move I'd applaud if I gave a crap about Cleveland.
- Steals: Kemba Walker (anybody who can carry a team the way he did can adjust his game to make it in the NBA), Tristan Thompson (already can rebound and play defense at an NBA level), Marshon Brooks (one of the best scorers in the draft), Kenneth Faried (will make an impact immediately), Tobias Harris (best chance at becoming an all-star someday out of the late 1st round types), and Trey Thompkins (just needs polish).
- Busts: Kawhi Leonard (way too tweenery, not enough skill to overcome it), Jan Vesesly (girls name), Jimmer Fredette (future And 1 all-star), Iman Shumpert (completely boggled that he's a mid-first round pick, basically a slower T.J. Ford), Nikola Vucevic (yes, let's take the slow, white, 7-footer - that always works out), and Demetri McCamey (wherever he's taken in the NBDL draft it will be too soon).
- My biggest hope for the Wolves - other than they just take Williams at #2 - is that they find a way to trade the #20 pick, either for a future #1, a veteran and not terrible C or SG, or both. The one team I've seen mentioned a couple of times as looking for a pick in the 20s is the Cavaliers, and although they're pretty barren when it comes to SGs they do have a few big men who are probably expendable since they have a bunch of young guys they probably want to give an extensive tryout to - Antawn Jamison (yuck) and Anderson Varejao (I can see this). I feel like Varejao's constantly running motor, fundamental hustle, and excellent defense would fit on this team very well, and on a team as young as the Wolves getting a guy like him might be worth the #20 pick since they don't really have room for any more mediocre young dudes. I don't know how the whole salary thing works and I have no idea if the Cavs would have any interest in trading him, but I'd be down. Assuming he's not hurt or something. I don't pay nearly enough attention to the NBA to know everything.
- Apropos of nothing I'm talking about, but you can never trust a pitcher with a stripper's name, eh Madison Bumgarner?
And a few college hoop notes before I go:
- The early scouting reports and some excellent video shot by gopherhole poster jmag21 are in, and it sounds like Oto Osenieks is going to rank on the white boy scale somewhere between Blake Hoffarber and Dirk Nowitzki. There's no doubt that jumper is silky smooth and looks to be accurate so far, so even if he never learns to play defense or rebound he'll be pretty close to Blake, and at 6-8, 205 lbs. I'm not exactly expecting him to put on a rebounding clinic, but I'm officially intrigued. My only real hope is that he isn't just some tall skinny white dork who hangs out around the three point line all day. I mean, that might be fine during his freshman year, but he needs to progress and get better. Since that's something Tubby has excelled at since his arrival here I feel good about Oto's chances.
- Speaking of white three-point shooters, Ricky Kreklow is transferring from Missouri. There was at least some mutual interest there (like between me and your mom) when he was going through the recruiting process the first time. I don't know if anybody has any interest on either side this time around, but the dude can shoot so I'm interested, and I'd like to go ahead and just throw his name out there so on the off chance he ends up a Gopher I can point out how smart I am.
- Lastly, if you thought it was going to be difficult for the Gophers to sign Tyus Jones things just got more difficult when Jones made the U-16 team as the starting point guard, which vaulted him to #1 PG in his class status, if he wasn't there already. ESPN already ranks him the #1 PG for 2014 and the #9 recruit overall, and he's got Ohio State, North Carolina, Washington, UCLA, Pitt, and Michigan State after him, amongst others, although let's be honest it doesn't really matter - he can basically write his own ticket anywhere. So why would he pick the Gophers? I can't really come up with anything. The best I can do is loyalty, but I think that really only extends to fans and dogs.
We can only hope.and wait at this point. Plus we have a saying around here, "Let Shelbyville handle it."
- How the Wolves screw up the #2 pick in a 2-player draft. Trade for Roy Hibbert? Trade with Kevin Love for Pau Gasol? Trade for Marcin Gortat? Draft some foreign player? Stay tuned, it's the most intriguing part of the draft.
- Utah to trade the #3 pick. This is a two player draft and the Jazz apparently can't come to a consensus on a player, so it makes sense for them to move backwards. If they don't, look for them to take Kanter.
- If they take Kanter, Toronto will start salivating at getting Knight at #5 since their current starting PG is Jose freaking Calderon. I would also expect Cleveland to get a ton of calls from teams looking to get that #4 pick, knowing the Cavs won't take Knight when they just took Irving. They aren't the T-Wolves for god's sake.
- How far with Jonas Valanciunas slip? I won't pretend to know anything about him, but he's supposed to be the best Euro this year (which, let's be honest, is a little like being the most honorable Lannister - or the least douchiest Blue Devil if you prefer your analogies less nerdy). But Chad Ford has been reporting lately that there are some issues with his buyout from commiesylvania which may cause him to slip. Personally I'm betting, if the pick isn't traded, that the Cavs take him in kind of a "we already have our sure thing in Irving, let's go for the home run" mode. A move I'd applaud if I gave a crap about Cleveland.
- Steals: Kemba Walker (anybody who can carry a team the way he did can adjust his game to make it in the NBA), Tristan Thompson (already can rebound and play defense at an NBA level), Marshon Brooks (one of the best scorers in the draft), Kenneth Faried (will make an impact immediately), Tobias Harris (best chance at becoming an all-star someday out of the late 1st round types), and Trey Thompkins (just needs polish).
- Busts: Kawhi Leonard (way too tweenery, not enough skill to overcome it), Jan Vesesly (girls name), Jimmer Fredette (future And 1 all-star), Iman Shumpert (completely boggled that he's a mid-first round pick, basically a slower T.J. Ford), Nikola Vucevic (yes, let's take the slow, white, 7-footer - that always works out), and Demetri McCamey (wherever he's taken in the NBDL draft it will be too soon).
- My biggest hope for the Wolves - other than they just take Williams at #2 - is that they find a way to trade the #20 pick, either for a future #1, a veteran and not terrible C or SG, or both. The one team I've seen mentioned a couple of times as looking for a pick in the 20s is the Cavaliers, and although they're pretty barren when it comes to SGs they do have a few big men who are probably expendable since they have a bunch of young guys they probably want to give an extensive tryout to - Antawn Jamison (yuck) and Anderson Varejao (I can see this). I feel like Varejao's constantly running motor, fundamental hustle, and excellent defense would fit on this team very well, and on a team as young as the Wolves getting a guy like him might be worth the #20 pick since they don't really have room for any more mediocre young dudes. I don't know how the whole salary thing works and I have no idea if the Cavs would have any interest in trading him, but I'd be down. Assuming he's not hurt or something. I don't pay nearly enough attention to the NBA to know everything.
- Apropos of nothing I'm talking about, but you can never trust a pitcher with a stripper's name, eh Madison Bumgarner?
And a few college hoop notes before I go:
- The early scouting reports and some excellent video shot by gopherhole poster jmag21 are in, and it sounds like Oto Osenieks is going to rank on the white boy scale somewhere between Blake Hoffarber and Dirk Nowitzki. There's no doubt that jumper is silky smooth and looks to be accurate so far, so even if he never learns to play defense or rebound he'll be pretty close to Blake, and at 6-8, 205 lbs. I'm not exactly expecting him to put on a rebounding clinic, but I'm officially intrigued. My only real hope is that he isn't just some tall skinny white dork who hangs out around the three point line all day. I mean, that might be fine during his freshman year, but he needs to progress and get better. Since that's something Tubby has excelled at since his arrival here I feel good about Oto's chances.
- Speaking of white three-point shooters, Ricky Kreklow is transferring from Missouri. There was at least some mutual interest there (like between me and your mom) when he was going through the recruiting process the first time. I don't know if anybody has any interest on either side this time around, but the dude can shoot so I'm interested, and I'd like to go ahead and just throw his name out there so on the off chance he ends up a Gopher I can point out how smart I am.
- Lastly, if you thought it was going to be difficult for the Gophers to sign Tyus Jones things just got more difficult when Jones made the U-16 team as the starting point guard, which vaulted him to #1 PG in his class status, if he wasn't there already. ESPN already ranks him the #1 PG for 2014 and the #9 recruit overall, and he's got Ohio State, North Carolina, Washington, UCLA, Pitt, and Michigan State after him, amongst others, although let's be honest it doesn't really matter - he can basically write his own ticket anywhere. So why would he pick the Gophers? I can't really come up with anything. The best I can do is loyalty, but I think that really only extends to fans and dogs.
We can only hope.and wait at this point. Plus we have a saying around here, "Let Shelbyville handle it."
Thursday, April 14, 2011
It's FANNNNNNNNNNNNNnnn-tastic!
Because I can't possibly bring myself to write or even comment on the complete breakdown the Twins displayed tonight I'm going to need to find something else to write about as an outlet for my rage because, let's face it, if Mrs. W goes to the doctor for pain medication after falling down the stairs again some questions are going to be asked. Since I know iff there's one thing everyone in the world cares about it's the NBA Playoffs (which start Saturday), so let's break these matchups down. Not super in depth or anything because I'm actually not all that NBA smart, believe it or not, and I don't know much but I know I love you and that may be all I need to know.
EASTERN CONFERENCE:
#1 Chicago Bulls vs. #8 Indiana Pacers: First off I'm completely stunned that the Pacers made the playoffs. I had no idea this kind of thing had happened. I thought they simply transformed from the thug life of Stephen Jackson, the craziest son of a bitch in all of sports, and Ron Artest into the blinding whiteness of Troy Murphy, Mike Dunleavy, and Tyler Hansbrough and that was that. But apparently having Darren Collison and Danny Granger, despite the presence of Roy Hibbert, is enough to get you into the NBA Playoffs. Where they will get destroyed by the Bulls. Chicago in 4.
#4 Orlando Magic vs. #5 Atlanta Hawks: This is a total mis-match because there are four good teams in the East, of which Orlando is one of them and Atlanta is not. And who is going to stop Dwight Howard? Al Horford? Please. The Hawks only chance is if Howard does that thing where he just seems not all that interested in dominating and just kind of stands around while Jameer and Redick and Penny chuck up threes all day. Even if that happens, Orlando is probably still the favorite. Magic in five.
#2 Miami Heat vs. #7 Philadelphia 76ers: The Heat are vulnerable for sure, partially because I still think they're going to struggle a bit, alpha dog wise, and LeBron has essentially proven to be the Rory McIlroy of NBA playoffs, but there are a couple reasons that upset won't happen here. The first is Dwayne Wade, who is still the type of player who can single-handedly win a series, and the second reason is that Philly's leading scorer, rebounder, and shot-blocker is Elton freaking Brand. Somebody like Jodie Meeks or Lou Williams or even Jrue Holiday could heat up and scare 'em, and that'll probably happen in a game or two, but I don't think the Sixers can really threaten Miami. Heat in five.
#3 Boston Celtics vs. #6 New York Knicks. This is the match-up where I see an upset brewing. Just having playoff basketball at Madison Square Garden is going to give them a huge jolt (don't forget that at its heart New York is a basketball town), Carmelo and Amare are going to get theirs, and the Celtics really haven't been the same since they traded Kendrick Perkins. If the Knicks can get anybody to step up and be their third scorer (Billups or Fields seem the most likely) they will knock off the Celtics. Which is good because I'm really sick of these dorks and Boston fans deserve to have something bad happen to them. Knicks in six (Knicks +300 to win the series is an oustanding value bet).
WESTERN CONFERENCE
#1 San Antonio Spurs vs. Memphis Grizzlies. Nice to see Memphis in the playoffs, proving that was once an apparent basketball wasteland can revive itself and become a semi-promising playoff team. Of course, they aren't saddled with a regime that didn't hire their new coach before a draft where they had two top picks, then took two point guards with those picks, and then hired a coach who is committed to running an offense that not only doesn't emphasize a point guard but actively ignores the position. Great job, a-holes. Anyway Memphis is probably going to be a little feisty (Zach Randolph is at least 50/50 to start a minor scuffle), but they won't be able to seriously scare San Antonio. Spurs in six.
#4 Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Denver Nuggets. This doesn't feel like a 4/5 matchup - at all. It feels more like a team with no stars taking on a team that is on the verge of becoming a groin grabbingly good team. Denver's best player is probably Ray Felton, who is a nice player and all, but he'd be like the third or fourth wheel on OKC, and thanks to the Perkins trade the Thunder are now perfectly constructed to make a run at the title this year, especially if James Harden plays with his head out of his ass. These guys are only -220 to win this series, when I'm thinking they should be more like -400 or -500. Good bet.
#2 Los Angeles Lakers vs. #7 New Orleans Hornets. The latest Kobe "controversy" shouldn't matter to the team, just as it shouldn't matter to anybody else because honestly you people are just looking for something to get upset about. If you want to be upset about anything, try dealing with people who try to make small talk all day long. Seriously, if someone at your work is offering free food and you don't really know them, either quickly and quietly grab the food and be on your way or just pass on it all together, don't decide to make chit-chat so you feel better about being a fatty because honestly it just makes my skin crawl when you make me talk to you about absolutely nothing. And this happens all the time. I've got the creepy crawlies going up my back just thinking about it. Lakers in six.
#3 Dallas Mavericks vs. #6 Portland Trail Blazers. The Blazers are shaping up to be a pretty popular upset pick because of the matchup (nobody on Dallas can handle Aldridge), and to be honest I took Portland for a little bit because the odds are decent at +180, but I think Dallas takes this one. First of all, as much trouble as the Mavs are going to have with Aldridge, nobody seems to be mentioning how much of a match-up problem Dirk is. Maybe it's because he's always a match-up problem and has been for like 15 years or maybe it's because he seems like such a dork, but he should have an oustanding series. Secondly, one of other big reasons the Blazers are a popular pick is that they've been "rejuvenated" by Gerald Wallace. What? This guy sucks and has simply been putting up good stats on bad teams because nobody who plays gives enough of a shit to guard him because they know his team sucks. Now he's suddenly going to carry a team to a playoff upset? Sorry, but no. Mavs in seven.
It all gets started Monday, and I highly recommend watching. I don't watch much NBA during the season on account of it being stupid, but the playoffs are whole different animal and I'm honestly like a drunken monkey with a fistful of Chuck E. Cheese tokens waiting for it. If you have a chance at any point, check it out, particularly if you used to love the NBA but now hate it. It's very good.
EASTERN CONFERENCE:
#1 Chicago Bulls vs. #8 Indiana Pacers: First off I'm completely stunned that the Pacers made the playoffs. I had no idea this kind of thing had happened. I thought they simply transformed from the thug life of Stephen Jackson, the craziest son of a bitch in all of sports, and Ron Artest into the blinding whiteness of Troy Murphy, Mike Dunleavy, and Tyler Hansbrough and that was that. But apparently having Darren Collison and Danny Granger, despite the presence of Roy Hibbert, is enough to get you into the NBA Playoffs. Where they will get destroyed by the Bulls. Chicago in 4.
#4 Orlando Magic vs. #5 Atlanta Hawks: This is a total mis-match because there are four good teams in the East, of which Orlando is one of them and Atlanta is not. And who is going to stop Dwight Howard? Al Horford? Please. The Hawks only chance is if Howard does that thing where he just seems not all that interested in dominating and just kind of stands around while Jameer and Redick and Penny chuck up threes all day. Even if that happens, Orlando is probably still the favorite. Magic in five.
#2 Miami Heat vs. #7 Philadelphia 76ers: The Heat are vulnerable for sure, partially because I still think they're going to struggle a bit, alpha dog wise, and LeBron has essentially proven to be the Rory McIlroy of NBA playoffs, but there are a couple reasons that upset won't happen here. The first is Dwayne Wade, who is still the type of player who can single-handedly win a series, and the second reason is that Philly's leading scorer, rebounder, and shot-blocker is Elton freaking Brand. Somebody like Jodie Meeks or Lou Williams or even Jrue Holiday could heat up and scare 'em, and that'll probably happen in a game or two, but I don't think the Sixers can really threaten Miami. Heat in five.
#3 Boston Celtics vs. #6 New York Knicks. This is the match-up where I see an upset brewing. Just having playoff basketball at Madison Square Garden is going to give them a huge jolt (don't forget that at its heart New York is a basketball town), Carmelo and Amare are going to get theirs, and the Celtics really haven't been the same since they traded Kendrick Perkins. If the Knicks can get anybody to step up and be their third scorer (Billups or Fields seem the most likely) they will knock off the Celtics. Which is good because I'm really sick of these dorks and Boston fans deserve to have something bad happen to them. Knicks in six (Knicks +300 to win the series is an oustanding value bet).
WESTERN CONFERENCE
#1 San Antonio Spurs vs. Memphis Grizzlies. Nice to see Memphis in the playoffs, proving that was once an apparent basketball wasteland can revive itself and become a semi-promising playoff team. Of course, they aren't saddled with a regime that didn't hire their new coach before a draft where they had two top picks, then took two point guards with those picks, and then hired a coach who is committed to running an offense that not only doesn't emphasize a point guard but actively ignores the position. Great job, a-holes. Anyway Memphis is probably going to be a little feisty (Zach Randolph is at least 50/50 to start a minor scuffle), but they won't be able to seriously scare San Antonio. Spurs in six.
#4 Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Denver Nuggets. This doesn't feel like a 4/5 matchup - at all. It feels more like a team with no stars taking on a team that is on the verge of becoming a groin grabbingly good team. Denver's best player is probably Ray Felton, who is a nice player and all, but he'd be like the third or fourth wheel on OKC, and thanks to the Perkins trade the Thunder are now perfectly constructed to make a run at the title this year, especially if James Harden plays with his head out of his ass. These guys are only -220 to win this series, when I'm thinking they should be more like -400 or -500. Good bet.
#2 Los Angeles Lakers vs. #7 New Orleans Hornets. The latest Kobe "controversy" shouldn't matter to the team, just as it shouldn't matter to anybody else because honestly you people are just looking for something to get upset about. If you want to be upset about anything, try dealing with people who try to make small talk all day long. Seriously, if someone at your work is offering free food and you don't really know them, either quickly and quietly grab the food and be on your way or just pass on it all together, don't decide to make chit-chat so you feel better about being a fatty because honestly it just makes my skin crawl when you make me talk to you about absolutely nothing. And this happens all the time. I've got the creepy crawlies going up my back just thinking about it. Lakers in six.
#3 Dallas Mavericks vs. #6 Portland Trail Blazers. The Blazers are shaping up to be a pretty popular upset pick because of the matchup (nobody on Dallas can handle Aldridge), and to be honest I took Portland for a little bit because the odds are decent at +180, but I think Dallas takes this one. First of all, as much trouble as the Mavs are going to have with Aldridge, nobody seems to be mentioning how much of a match-up problem Dirk is. Maybe it's because he's always a match-up problem and has been for like 15 years or maybe it's because he seems like such a dork, but he should have an oustanding series. Secondly, one of other big reasons the Blazers are a popular pick is that they've been "rejuvenated" by Gerald Wallace. What? This guy sucks and has simply been putting up good stats on bad teams because nobody who plays gives enough of a shit to guard him because they know his team sucks. Now he's suddenly going to carry a team to a playoff upset? Sorry, but no. Mavs in seven.
It all gets started Monday, and I highly recommend watching. I don't watch much NBA during the season on account of it being stupid, but the playoffs are whole different animal and I'm honestly like a drunken monkey with a fistful of Chuck E. Cheese tokens waiting for it. If you have a chance at any point, check it out, particularly if you used to love the NBA but now hate it. It's very good.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
Posts
