Previewing the Sweet 16 - Thursday

Calm down I'm here. Sorry. Unfortunately, the day after Selection Sunday we found out Mrs' W's grandpa died out in Utah, so it was a whirlwind of activity figuring out how to get out there, how to get the kids taken care of, and actually being there and seeing family and going from function to function and what not so I haven't been able to post anything about the Tournament. Luckily, however, the games were always on in the background and I'm really good at tuning out mindless conversation, so I know everything that happened. And, as a compulsive gambler, I probably know even more than you. Here's what's going on Thursday:


Wichita State vs. Notre Dame: Here we have that age old classic matchup of offense vs. offense, with Notre Dame averaging 1.21 points per possession (3rd in NCAA) and Wichita averaging 1.14 (16th). At first glance, Wichita seems more likely to be able to hold the Irish down than vice versa since their defense ranks much better, but playing in a weaker conference like the Missouri Valley can sometimes prop that up.  In the Shockers first two tournament games they allowed 76 points (1.1ppp) and 65 points (0.94), higher numbers than the 0.92 on the season - though the Kansas game was mighty impressive.

Notre Dame was pointed out by many as an upset prone type of team because of their reliance on the three pointer and suspect defense, and though they've shown a little better profile in the games so far (only 6 threes attempted against Northeastern, a good defensive effort vs. Butler) two three point wins, one in OT, don't have me convinced they're any less vulnerable.  Wichita is vulnerable to the three, but you have to work hard to get open shots against that defense, and they do an excellent job defending inside.  The Irish don't get offensive rebounds and don't create turnovers so they're going to have to hit open shots to score - which they are certainly capable of.

One of the most impressive things about the Shockers is they are super balanced in their inside/outside scoring.  They aren't dependent on the 3, but they can hit a ton of them if you leave it open - they beat Indiana hitting just two threes, they beat Kansas hitting ten.  The Shockers are an incredibly balanced team with no major weaknesses and a lot of strengths.  I mentioned before how a team's stats can be inflated going against inferior competition, and that's certainly a possibility here, but I think Wichita's results in the tournament the last two seasons show they aren't some overrated mid-major.  

Bet:  Wichita State -1.5 (2 UNITS), Over 137 (2 UNITS)



Wisconsin vs. North Carolina: This is a horrible matchup for the Heels. This is a team that can’t shoot, but thrives in transition and creates second chances for itself by absolutely owning the offensive boards (5th in the country). They don’t create rurnovers either, so they absolutey need those boards to score if they can’t get out and run. Now Kennedy Meeks, one of their two big time rebounders could be hurt or at least limited, and they’re about to go up against Frank Kaminsky. Yikes.

Seems pretty straight forward on the Badger end of things. Offensively they’re pretty much content to go one shot and be done, but always get that one shot. They won’t turn it over and the UNC defense doesn’t force turnovers, so most likely the Badgers will finish in single digits. They shoot the ball well enough that they won’t have to worry about creating second shot opportunities, and I expect to see four, if not five, Badgers sprinting to get back on defense as soon as a shot goes up. With everyone back and no or limited turnovers, the transition chances for the Tar Heels are going to be close to nil.

Generally the Badgers try to limit their opponents three point chances, but unfortunately Bo Ryan is smart enough to know that’s the exact opposite tact to take against North Carolina. The Badgers will likely pack the defense in and go under all screens (possible exception against Marcus Paige), forcing Carolina to make outside shots, something they’ve been horrible at this year. With Meeks status up in the air they’ll be even more limited in the paint anyway, so for them to have a chance someone like Justin Jackson or Nate Britt is going to have to suddenly learn how to shoot the lights out, or Brice Johnson will have to have the game of his life - seems unlikely. The Badgers, who hate to fast break like a fat kids hates asparagus, will send all five defensive players to the boards as well to take away as many second chance points from UNC as possible.

What does this all add up to? A slow it down, one shot each time down the court for each team kind of game. Does that sound more like a North Carolina kind of game, or a Wisconsin kind of game? I’ll give you a hint: Meeks leads the Heels in eFG% at 56.6% - four of the Badger starters are better than that, and Bronson Koenig would be if his 2-point % wasn’t so awful.

Bet: Wisconsin -5 (2 UNITS), Under 144 (5 UNITS).



West Virginia vs. Kentucky:  In order to beat Kentucky, several things have to happen and yes, all of them need to happen.  First, you have to be able to limit the monsters on the blocks.  Karl-Anthony Towns and Trey Lyles are huge, natural scoring machines, Willie Cauley-Stein is an athletic freak who's learning how to score, and Dakari Johnson is seven-feet tall and can jump over everyone's head.  Keeping them contained is no easy task, but it can be done with big, physical defenders and strategic double teams.  West Virginia doesn't defend the two well, has limited big men and only one shot blocker.  Not off to a great start.

Second, you have to hope the guards miss their outside shots and then rebound when they do.  Kentucky's one weakness is they don't have great perimeter shooting, and though they're usually smart enough to pound the ball inside the Harrison twins and Devin Booker can occasionally fall in love with the jumper shot. You'd much rather take your chances there than letting the big guys go to work in the paint, you just have to get the rebounds - easier said than done with UK rebounding 40% of their misses this season.  Kentucky's guards will have a significant size advantage over the Mountaineer guards so when they double and then close out the Wildcat shooters will be able to shoot over them, they'll just have to hope they miss and then rebound.  They're an average defensive rebounding team, so this could go either way.

Third, you have to be able to score.  Kentucky is a great, yes great, defensive team and they can shut teams down.  The good news for WVU is that they can score in some unconventional ways by excelling at getting themselves extra possessions.  The Mountaineers are #1 in the country at forcing turnovers and #4 in the country in offensive rebounding - that's a whole lot of extra shots.  They're a terrible shooting team, but they've gotten this far by creating extra scoring chances for themselves, something that will be the key to the game.  Kentucky doesn't turn the ball over much and they handled Arkansas pretty well, but they're surprisingly vulnerable to opponents' offensive rebounding. 

This will be an interesting game, because it's a team with an unconventional profile taking on Kentucky, a team they'll have to play against in a completely different way than they're used to.  Another wrinkle is Bob Huggins being involved, because no matter what you think of the guy as a person he's one hell of a coach.  Don't forget, the last time these teams matched up in the NCAA Tournament was when that John Wall/Demarcus Cousins Kentucky team looked unstoppable, and WVU won.  

Bet:  West Virginia +13.5 (2 UNITS), Under 136 (1 UNIT)



Xavier vs. Arizona:  Arizona is clearly the more talented team here.  The Wildcats have three or four future NBA draft picks on their team, one guaranteed in the lottery, and another guy who made the All Pac-12 First Team.  The Musketeers' best player is the guy everyone is making jokes about how he looks like a guy playing at the Y and is an Uber driver in his spare time.  In many ways this is your classic glitz and glamor vs. grit and hustle match-up, until you realize Arizona works its collective ass off and is one of the best defensive teams in the country so they're pretty damn gritty hustley too, just more talented.  So can Xavier keep this one close?

I think it's going to depend on if Arizona can hit threes.  Xavier tends to play a more packed in defense, giving up more three point attempts than average, and then hit the boards hard to limit second chances.  Arizona is not a great three point shooting team, although they do hit a good percentage.  The Wildcats prefer to get the ball inside, and then take threes when they're open.  Only Stanley Johnson and Gabe York took over 100 shots from behind the arc on the team this year, though they did hit each hit better than 37% so daring them to shoot is playing with fire.  There's no real easy way to stop Arizona, but keeping them out of the lane as much as possible is a good start.

Xavier is very well coached team, and as such I expect they'll realize they can't win an uptempo game against an Arizona team that thrives in transition.  This game will likely turn into a half court kind of affair, and with the Musketeers ability to keep Arizona off the offensive glass and their likely emphasis on getting back on defense rather than getting their own misses means the game will come down to Xavier not turning it over, and Xavier making enough shots to keep up with Arizona (X will likely not turn over Zona much).  The Musketeers played great offensively against both Ole Miss and Georgia State, and though Arizona is on a completely different level, Xavier so far has that look of a team that both knows it is not supposed to have gotten this far, and also knows it has nothing to lose.  Sounds kind of stupid, but it's also kind of a thing.

Bet:  Xavier +11 (1 UNIT), Under 136 (2 UNITS)

Back tomorrow for Friday's games.  

Sweet 16 Thoughts - Thursday

So far things in the NCAA Tournament have gone pretty close to what I expected.  All my Final Four teams are still alive (Florida, Louisville, Arizona, Michigan State - and yes I know that's a pretty popular combination), and I called Kansas going out early.  My only real misses were believing in Creighton (or maybe not believing in Baylor), believing in Duke despite knowing how horrible their defense was (I have no idea why I didn't take Michigan here), and thinking Syracuse had figured out their issues.  Overall, my bracket still has a chance to win, so thank you for asking.  Anyway, here's what's happening on Thursday:

#11 Dayton vs. #10 Stanford. 
There are many great looking games that will be played this weekend, and this game will also be played.  There isn't a lot of shine to it because even though both teams are underdogs neither team is very sexy.  Stanford is nerds and Dayton is Dayton.  Although Dayton looks like the more athletic team with guys like Sibert, Sanford, and Pierre who can kind of do a little of everything, Stanford has not just size but skilled size in Dwight Powell and Stefan Nastic, as well as Josh Huestis who seems to play big.

It should be a close game, but unfortunately for lose who were hoping to experience a little schadenfreude at the expense of Reid Travis with Johnny Dawkins flaming out and getting fired (which clearly isn't happening now), I think he gets another big win.  I'm on Stanford here laying the three.

#6 Baylor vs. #2 Wisconsin.
I know Scott Drew is a horrible coach.  I know it all the way to the bottom of my tiny black heart, but I'm not so sure Bo Ryan is that much better, at least this year and Baylor is absolutely clicking at the right time.  More than that, how the hell is Wisconsin going to deal with Baylor's size and athleticism?  Cory Jefferson is what Nigel Hayes hopes to be in four years and he's having a great run to end his career.  Isaiah Austin seems to finally be getting it, Rico Gathers is a rebounding machine, and the wings are Royce O'Neale and Taurean Prince who are 6-6 and 6-7.  Frank Kaminsky might actually get killed. You realize Duje Dukan will likely have to be prominently involved here?

Wisconsin's only chance is if Scott Drew plays a zone, which is actually Baylor's preferred, and they get hot.  Drew is dumb enough to do it, but even if he does their size might bother Wisconsin enough so it actually works.  This is still my biggest bet of the weekend at five units to cover three and a half and another unit on the moneyline.  Also taking the under 137 for a unit, as I think Wisconsin is going to play slower and hope Baylor is dumb enough to not be able to guard.  Also possible.

#4 UCLA vs. #1 Florida.
Florida was my pick to win a couple months ago and still is, and I realize that's not really going out on a limb but I just can't find any weaknesses here.  They have the second best defense in the country (on a per possession basis) behind Arizona and a top 20 offense as well.  They have senior leadership that seems to count in March and excellent guard play with the SEC player of the year in Scottie Wilbekin.  They have five guys who can have a blow up game so if anybody is off (maybe outside Wilbekin if we're talking things beyond shooting) oh well just move on to the next guy.

I like UCLA a lot and Kyle Anderson is one of my favorite players and if Zach LaVine and Norman Powell are clicking those three and Jordan Adams form a damn good four pack, but LaVine has been horrible lately.  For UCLA to win you're going to be counting on the Wear twins and Tony Parker to check Florida's group of tight end looking guys who can come at you in waves.  No chance.  Florida -4.5 for three units.  I also think there's a decent chance this goes over the 137 because UCLA likes to run and Florida can run with anybody, but I can also see a repeat of their game against Pitt where the Bruins can't score and the Gators just grind clock.  Pass for now, but I'm sure I'll do something with it prior to tip because I'm an action junkie.

#4 San Diego State vs. #1 Arizona.
This has not been a kind tournament to defensive minded teams who are limited offensively - Kansas State, Ohio State, Cincinnati, and St. Louis are all gone.  San Diego State fits that mold as well with one difference - Xavier Thames.  You could try to make a similar argument in favor of Cincy and Sean Kilpatrick, but where it always seems like Kilpatrick has to struggle to score, Thames seems to do it much more effortlessly.  I know that kind of sounds stupid since Kilpatrick averaged over 20 points per game this year, but I managed to watch a lot of Cincy and see SDSU a few times and it's just an impression I got, I can't really back it up. Just trust me I'm much smarter than you.

Yes, the Wildcats have the #1 point-per-possession defense in the field, and it's because they force opponents to take jump shots and pack the paint to take away almost anything driving to the rim.  Well, Thames doesn't drive - he's taken only 17% of his shots this year at the rim but hits 40% on both two point and three point jumpers.  Arizona is basically going to be daring an excellent jump shooter to shoot jump shots.  I don't think that will be enough for the Aztecs to pull off an upset, but with that dynamic and a really, really good defense I expect this to be close.  I know Arizona beat SDSU by 9 in San Diego earlier this year, but Arizona had Brandon Ashley in that game and SDSU didn't have Dwayne Polee so I'm on SDSU getting seven for two units.  I also expect a real grind it out game, but the 122 is too low a number for me since it's a tournament game I figure to be close which could result in a lot of fouls, especially since my perception is in an elimination game losing teams continue to foul longer than they normally would.  Instead I'm throwing two units on the first half line, under 55.5. 

DWG College Hoops Preview: Teams #18-#12

I wasn't able to go to the Gopher game tonight, so instead here are a few more NCAA Hoop Previews (we're almost done!).  But first, a quick check on the Big 10 teams and how they've done in the exhibitions that have been played so far.

Illinois 79-47 over Lewis and 75-66 over West Chester.   The Illini had 21 turnovers vs. just 7 assists against West Chester.  Safe to say their issues with ball-handling haven't been resolved just yet.

Indiana 86-57 over Wesleyan.  Maurice Creek led the Hoosiers in scoring with 12.  I would have sworn that dude had graduated already.

Iowa 100-54 over Quincy.  Hawks forced 31 turnovers in this game, and based on possessions in the game it looks like Iowa might be converted over to a run-and-gun, press the whole game type of team.  Tom Davis would be proud.

Michigan 83-47 over Northern Michigan.  Trey Burke was suspended for this one which clearly didn't matter.  Two of the three vaunted freshmen hit double figures.  Tim Hardaway had 5 assists and zero turnovers.  Luckily he still shoots like shit.

Michigan State 85-47 over Northwood and 62-49 over St. Cloud State.  Derrick Nix looking like he's come to play this year with a 13 & 8 and 14 & 7 in these two.  Then again, I doubt teams of that caliber have anyone who can handle someone as wide as Nix in the paint.

Nebraska:  yet to play.  They can't even figure out scheduling properly.

Northwestern:  yet to play.  You'll never make the NCAA Tournament this way.

Ohio State 83-71 over Walsh.  DeShaun Thomas scored 25 and got up 17 shots with nobody else on OSU putting up more than 9.  The man is just a scoring machine.  Breathtaking.

Penn State 79-54 over Philadelphia.  D.J. Newbill, a transfer from Southern Miss, scored 15 them and Tim Frazier scored 17 with 8 assists.  Frazier is insane.  How he can put up the kind of numbers he did last year with no help is baffling.

Purdue 70-61 over Montevallo and 109-68 over Newberry.  They have three guys named Johnson (Ronnie, Terone, and Anthony) who were the three leading scorers against Montevallo.  That's hilarious.

Wisconsin:  yet to play.  Slackers.

Anyway, on with it.  And don't forget to check out the post directly below this one for TRE's Western Conference Preview which I totally just stepped all over.

18.  Creighton Blue Jays.  You're going to hear a sickening amount about Creighton this year, and not without reason, but you know how much ESPN loves their little teams that could and Creighton is the top qualifier this year (since Gonzaga and Memphis have done it so long and no longer qualify - well maybe Gonzaga).   This is a team that beat Alabama in the first round of the NCAA Tournament last season and has nine of its top ten guys back including Doug McDermott who is somehow a National Player of the Year candidate.  The guy they lose is a big one in Antoine Young who has been their PG for three years, but he didn't even lead the team in assists last year so they'll probably be ok.  The real problem is that schedule.  They have a couple of so-so teams on there (North Texas, Cal, St. Joe's) but the only real team is Wisconsin and they just lost their PG for the season.  So it's very likely they will enter the MVC schedule undefeated and should run through there with only 1-2 losses.  Can you hear the media coverage already?  Can't you already hear Dickie V screaming about McDermott and Creighton?  Ugh.  I'm sick of it already and it hasn't even started yet.

17.  Kansas Jayhawks.  These guys rank 7th in both polls so I might be underrating them, but losing both Tyshawn Taylor and Thomas Robinson is huge - that's 34 points, 14 boards, and 7 assists just gone.  Then again, the year prior they lost the Morris twins and made the Championship Game, and the year before that they lost Sherron Collins (what happened to that guy?), Cole Aldrich, and Xavier Henry and still made the elite 8.  So I guess, what, Kansas is kind of a basketball factory?  Man, why am I always the last to know?  You know they're going to be involved on some level because you know they're always going to play defense, and even more fun is that big dopey surfer dude, Jeff Withey, is back with his 3.6 blocks per game from last year.  Man I love shotblockers.  Remember Antoine Broxsie?  God was I excited when he transferred to the Gophers.  Whiffed on that one.  He's the starting PF on my all-disappointing Gopher team (PG: Adam Boone, SG: Rico Tucker, SF: Rick Rickert , PF Broxsie, C Ralph Sampson, and Voshon Lenard's senior year should be on here somewhere too)

16.  Arizona Wildcats.  Arizona looks to be back, finally, and I for one am happy about it.  To have the alma mater of Sean Elliott and Sean Rooks be a giant suckhole was not good for my brain, man, but they're back.  A monster recruiting class (ranked #3 in the country by ESPN with four dudes in their top 100), a big-time transfer (Mark Lyons from Xavier who averaged 15 points and 3 assists per game last year and is immediately eligible thanks to that post-graduate rule that everyone who has ever used has been doing in order to further their academic career), and a couple of studs in waiting back will have Arizona back in the NCAA Tournament after their streak of I don't know like 25 years in a row or something ended last season.  FUN FACT:  Lyons was recruited to Xavier by then head coach Sean Miller.  Sean Miller is now Arizona's coach.  Good thing Arizona offered a post-grad degree Lyons was after that Xavier didn't.  What a happy coincidence. 

15.  Gonzaga Bulldogs.  I've come way around on the Bulldogs.  When they started winning a bunch of games I initially hated them the same way I currently hate Davidson - an annoying little brother winning a few too many games after hitting a lucky streak that the national media wants to make out with at all times - but now I've decided I'm a big fan.  You can't have this run of success by accident, and it's impressive how they've managed to keep it going and, stop me if you've heard this before, this season might be their best.  As per usual they're loaded in the back court with Kevin Pangos and Gary Bell, and these guys are just sophomores so you can expect them to be good for at least another few seasons, and Elias Harris is back and was good again last year so there's no reason to think he won't jump up another level in his final college year.  The key to this team's success may end up being center Sam Dower, a junior from Osseo (yes, Osseo, MN) who apparently the Gophers didn't need.  He's had a couple of nice seasons as a back-up and with Robert Sacre gone he's primed for a breakout year.  Gonzaga highlights on SportsCenter are literally going to kill me this year.  Yes, I said literally.

14.  North Carolina Tar Heels.  Normally a team starting two freshmen and two guys coming back off knee surgery would be cause for concern, but you know the deal once you start getting to this caliber of team - these aren't exactly mediocre talents.  James McAdoo, who for some reason is always called James Michael McAdoo which I am not going to do because it's annoying, could have been a Top 10 NBA pick last season if he had left despite playing just 15 minutes per game with UNC because apparently nobody remembers Marvin Williams, but he chose to stay and is immediately one of the favorites for ACC Player of the Year.  Seriously these guys will be fine.  The back-ups who played 10 minutes per game last year were all like, Top 50 recruits who were just biding their time, and they bring in the 8th ranked recruiting class which included stealing two guys (Marcus Paige from Iowa, J.P. Tokoto from Wisconsin) out of the midwest so seriously F these guys.  The only reason not to completely hate Carolina is because at least they aren't Duke.

13.  Memphis Tigers.  Guess which team hasn't won an NCAA Tournament game the last three years (no not the Gophers I mean a team that's supposed to win those games)?  Well obviously it's Memphis otherwise why would I bring it up?  That will have to change if Sam Weir look-a-like Josh Pastner wants to stay comfortable as Memphis jumps to the Big East next season, because this Memphis team is finally loaded the way those all Caliparian teams were.  They've got a very talented back court including former McDonald's All-American Shoeless Joe Jackson, Adonis Thomas (another former McD's AA who was hurt the majority of last season) is also back and healthy, and in the paint they grabbed another McD's AA in Shaq Thomas.  So yeah, I'd say Pastner's recruiting has finally caught up to what Calipari was doing when he was at Memphis.  Expect sanctions any day.

12.  Baylor Bears.  It's pretty incredible that Baylor can lose Perry Jones, Quincy Acy, and Quincy Miller all to the NBA and still have a shot at being a top 10 team this year, but Baylor has turned into a pretty incredible program.  Pierre Jackson is back to run the show after being named Honorable Mention All-American last season and was tabbed as the Big 12 Preseason Player of the Year, and his back court mate Brady Heslip is back as well to knock down a billion threes.  Add in Deuce Bello, A.J. Walton, and Gary Franklin and it's safe to say there are no questions about Baylor's guard play.  Losing the entire front court could hurt, but Baylor could easily go three guards and there's plenty of incoming talent as well.  Particularly Isaiah Austin who is the best incoming center in the country and a top-5 overall recruit - the kind of guy lesser schools would call a "program changer" but just business as usual at Baylor.  Plus J'mison Morgan is somehow still around.  I swear that dude is older than Mbakwe.


Previous:
Teams #68-60
Teams #59-53
Teams #52-47 
Teams #46-39 
Teams #38-34 
Teams #33-26 
Teams #25-20 
Team #19 (GOPHERS)

NCAA Basketball Preview - The Pac 12

Here's what you need to know about the Pac-12 this year - they're going to be bad again.  Once again, the Pac teams have been hit hard by attrition and although they continue to pull in a good share of stud recruits, the players are leaving more quickly than they can be replaced.  If there was an easy way to look this up without having to straight count it or if there was a page with bids by conference by year, but there's not, so instead I'll just point out how the Pac has struggled even getting 2-3 teams bids in the last few seasons.

They've done so crappy in the non-conference slate that it's hard to build a profile back-up in a conference where seemingly everybody has a bad early loss.  Last year Oregon lost to San Jose State and Idaho, UCLA lost to Montana, USC lost to Rider, Bradley, Nebraska, and TCU, Stanford lost to Tulsa, Oregon State lost to Seattle, Texas Southern, and Utah Valley, and Arizona State lost to New Mexico.  Those are RPI killers and bring down the whole league.  They'll stabilize eventually because of the level of some of the programs, but this might be another rough one.

Oh well, at least they have hot chicks.

1.  CALIFORNIA GOLDEN BEARS.  Unlike the majority of the team's in the Pac-12, Cal managed to avoid getting hit with the big curse of graduations/NBA defections and as such they should be the best team in the conference this year, despite the fact that Justin Cobbs is probably going to be their starting point guard.  And Cobbsy should have plenty of opportunity for assists with Cal bringing back a lot of fire power - Jorge Gutierrez, Harper Kamp, and Allen Crabbe are all back and all averaged over 13 points per game last season.  Of course, Cal was also a pretty terrible defensive team last year and lost their best inside presence, so it's not like they're going to run away with anything here.  And speaking of running.........

2.  UCLA BRUINS.  Just like Washington, UCLA was also hit pretty hard in the losing players department.  Replacing Malcolm Lee and Tyler Honeycutt won't be easy, but luckily the Bruins have plenty coming back and a bumper crop of newcomers to help ease the transition.   Interestingly, of the newcomers the only freshman is SG Norman Powell (#69 overall on Rivals), but he's been called a Jrue Holliday type athlete, so he should be pretty damn impressive.  The newcomers most key to the Bruins' season are the Wear twins, 6-10 former McDonald's All-Americans who transferred over from North Carolina.  Despite their identical size, their skill sets put one at the 4 and one at the 3, adding some extra flexibility.  As long as they get quality point guard play from Lazeric Jones they'll be at the top end of the Pac.  And I wrote all that without mentioning their best player, Reeves Nelson, who is like what Brian Cardinal or Dusty Rychart would have been if they had actual talent.  So yeah, UCLA is fairly loaded, much like myself (booze not money).

3.  WASHINGTON HUSKIES.  Washington was hit hard by graduations and early defections, losing their three best players in PG Isaiah "Captain Circus Ball" Thomas, Justin Holiday, and Matthew Bryan-Amaning.  No need to panic however, because with Lorenzo Romar still coaching and Abdul Gaddy still around the sweet Circus Ball days should continue.  And thank god.  Really, if you haven't taken in a Washington basketball game lately you owe it to yourself to.  Two of my favorite memories of the last 2 tournaments are watching them play New Mexico and North Carolina.  The tempo is just out of this world.  Oh, and Washington also signed another fast as hell guard in Tony Wroten, so fire up the band!    

4.  ARIZONA WILDCATS.  This sounds pretty familiar at this point, but Zona is yet another Pac-12 team losing a bunch of talent from last year with not only Derrick Williams but also Lamont Jones gone.  Fortunately they're bringing in an excellent class to help out, highlighted by the backcourt duo of PG Josiah Turner (#2 PG, #11 overall) and SG Nick Johnson (#4 SG, #18 overall).  Turner should keep Arizona's traditional of top PG play alive and I'd bet this is the best incoming backcourt in America, but Arizona's lack of impact returning players will hold them down, and their improvement will be the difference between the NCAA and NIT this year.

5.  STANFORD CARDINAL.  Stanford loses their leading scorer, Jeremy Green, to the NBA Draft even though he's a dummkopf and didn't get drafted, but luckily for them they have Chasson Randle (#78 recruit) coming on and ready to step in to his starting position after choosing the Cardinal over Illinois and Purdue probably because he's a nerd but didn't want to go to Northwestern because they're terrible at everything always.  Everyone else is back from last year's mediocre team, and Stanford will likely end up in the same mediocre position as last season unless somebody shows a vast jump in ability.  The most likely candidate is 6-8 PF Josh Owens, a fifth-year senior whose numbers nearly doubled last year.

6.  OREGON DUCKS.  I don't know if it's the attrition from other teams or improvement on the Ducks' part, but suddenly Oregon is looking a little frisky under second-year coach Dana Altman.  I'm just kidding - it's the attrition.  But things are looking up, starting with the end of last season's championship in the CBI. . What?  It counts.  Anyway, the Ducks lose their leading scorer and rebounder from last year and their starting point guard, but have a bunch of quality adds including guard Jabari Brown, the #19 freshman according to Rivals, and possibly the best incoming shooter on the West Coast who turned down UCONN, Kansas, and Washington to come to Eugene.  Of course, your boyfriend Devoe Joseph becomes eligible after the first semester and will add some scoring pop in a more uptempo system.  Of course, the smart move would have been to sit out this year so he could have played all of next season, when the Ducks will be better and, you know, he'd be eligible for the whole year.  Then again, I suppose Devoe has never been known for thinking things through.

7.  ARIZONA STATE SUN DEVILS.  There's nothing more fun than watching players from Minnesota light it up for other teams and this might be your best chance outside of Iowa State.  Trent Lockett led the Sun Devils in scoring last season at 13.4 per game, and with the team's 2nd, 3rd, and 4th leading scorers all gone ASU might look to Lockett to be less a part of the offense than the majority of the offense.  He doubled his scoring average from his freshman to sophomore year, so he could be up for the challenge.  The two guys who really need to step up are guard Kaela King and forward Carrick Felix.  King was a much heralded and celebrated get for the Sun Devils as the #26 recruit in the country going into last year, but really had a disappointing year scoring over 10 points in a game just twice.  Felix originally committed to Duke before pulling out and and coming to Tempe, and like King needs to live up to his pedigree if ASU is going to compete for an NCAA bid this year.

8.  WASHINGTON STATE COUGARS.  Losing a guy like Klay Thompson, who did everything for your team and led the conference in scoring, is always going to sting but you can try to prepare because it was pretty obvious odds were better than 50/50 he'd be heading to the NBA.  What makes it worse is when DeAngelo Castro - double-digit scorer, leading rebounder, and second in the conference in FG percentage - bolts as well to head play professionally in Turkey.  They still have some fire power with second leading scorer and noted chucker Faisel Aden returning to throw the ball at the rim, but the key will be to see if he and junior PG Reggie Moore can co-exist.  Moore looked like a future star in his freshman year, but after Aden arrived he regressed with both Aden and Thompson needing the ball constantly.  If Moore can figure out his role that could be the difference between my 9th place prediction and as high as 7th.

9.  OREGON STATE BEAVERS.  I thought last year the Beavers had a shot to return to relevance for the first time since the days of Corey Benjamin, but alas, it was not meant to be, but at least they had the decency to let everyone know right away by losing to Seattle, Texas Southern, and Utah Valley before the season was a month old.  Just like Gary Sinise I won't get fooled again, but it is hard not to like their guards in Roberto Nelson and Jared Cunningham who are about as athletic as can be with Cunningham averaging nearly three steals per game last season, good enough for fifth in the country.  Really though, this was a bad team last year who did almost nothing well (other than steal the ball), last year's leading assist man averaged just 2.4 per game and is a 280 lb. power forward, and they lost one of their best players from last season with nothing real impressive waiting to step in.  So yeah, not a sleeper.

10.  USC TROJANS.  Last year USC made the tournament on the backs of their twin towers Nikola Vucevic and Alex Stephenson and solid guard play from the trio of Jio Fontan, Maurice Jones, and Donte Smith.  Now both of the bigs are gone along with Smith, and Fontan broke his knee off during the team's trip to Brazil, leaving just Jones and 8 other scholarship players (they also have two transfers eating up schollys who won't be eligible until next year and a season-ending shoulder injury to another guy), only one of whom has played in more than 6 games in his career.  Jones will have a little bit of help coming in with former Iowa forward Aaron Fuller becoming eligible this year and a big JuCo center coming in to rave reviews, but the only way USC is going to do much this year is with their usual solid defense, but not even that will be enough to make them post season relevant this year.   

11.  COLORADO BUFFALOES.  Every so often things come together for even the most moribund of programs and unheralded players improve, diamonds in the rough shine, and for one brief year a school that rarely makes its mark on the basketball world has a huge year.  Unfortunately when that happened for Colorado they somehow managed to bumblefuck it up and ended up in the NIT.  Now their four leading scorers are gone, including two of the better players in school history in Alec Burks and Cory Higgins, and Colorado prepares for the basement once again, but at least it's a brand new shiny basement.  Andre Roberson is a great athlete who led the team in rebounding, blocks, and steals last year and that's pretty much where the positives stop.  I heard it's a fun town though.

12.  UTAH UTES.  Remember when Majerus had Utah running along as a major western power?  Well that's not really relevant here.  Utah fired their coach after four straight losing seasons, which then sent four major contributors from last year's team will eligibility remaining heading for the transfer door which, along with graduations, means a terrible Utah team will now be missing 5 of their top 6 scorers from last season.  They do get back #2 leading scorer Josh Watkins at 15 per game and have a couple of assets most teams don't in a pair of 7-footers in David Foster and Josh Washburn.  Neither is particularly athletic or skilled, but you can't teach size so they'll grab rebounds, block shots, and probably make at least 50% of their lay-ups.


Other previews:
Big 12
ACC
Atlantic 10

A Gambling Perspective on the Sweet 16

I am now ready to write again. You may think the reason I haven't put any words down is because I filled out the world's worst bracket. And yes, I most certainly did fill out the worst bracket, but since I've never had any credibility anyway I don't really care how badly I look. The reason I haven't been able to put anything up is I'm still trying to recover from Chicago. Three nights of drinking until 3am - two of which started around noon - is way too many for an old man like me to handle. I've been trying to maximize my sleep in order to try to recalibrate myself back to normal. It hasn't worked yet but it's getting better, so I'm going to at least put something up so nobody thinks I'm dead.

There's no doubt my bracket is god damn awful, and I think I've figured out why other than that I suck - overthinking. It's hard to even rank the stupid things I did in making my picks, starting with believing in a Jamie Dixon Pitt team. Perennial underachievers, taking them to the Final Four would have been stupid, let alone picking them as my national champ. And he's not even the worst coach I backed, because I actually put my money behind Rick Barnes. Rick. Effing. Barnes. So dumb. Hell, after those two believing in a Lorenzo Romar-led Washington Huskies team doesn't even look bad, and that would normally be the biggest mistake one could possibly make in a bracket.

It wasn't just backing obviously poor coaches either, because there were some teams I was behind that should have had more obvious red flags. The most obvious is Notre Dame, and somehow I completely missed it and had them in my final four. Yep, I took a team that is almost 100% reliant on the jump shot to score points and suddenly expected them to be able to beat four straight NCAA Tournament caliber teams. Just stupid. But possibly not as stupid as expecting a team that just lost one of it's best players and leading rebounders to make a surprise run to the elite 8. Why did I back St. John's despite all that? Again, I'm an idiot.

The good news, however, is that although my bracket picks were god awful I did manage to come out ahead by a bit with the gambling gods thanks mainly to a heavy bet on George Mason, a heavy bet on the Zona/UNC over, and a super mega heavy bet on Darius Morris over 4 assists against Duke. So let's all clear our minds, forget my poor picks, and concentrate on picking the sweet 16 from a gambling perspective using what I learned this past weekend. We'll do Thursday's games today and Friday's games tomorrow.


UCONN -1 vs. San Diego State: Right away we hit up one of the biggest subplots of the weekend - don't back a poor game coach. Although I love Steve Fisher and the man has a national championship and a couple other Final Fours, he's the epitome of a "recruit great athletes, roll the ball out and let them play" style coach. That can work, but you run into trouble against teams with similar athletes who are backed by a game coach who can actually influence a game, and that's what you have with the Huskies and Jim Calhoun.

Two big x-factors in this game:  home court advantage for the Aztecs and Kemba Walker for the Huskies.  The game is going to be played just 2 hours from SDSU's campus so it should be a partisan crowd for them, while if you watched any basketball this year you know Kemba Walker is the kind of player who can carry a team by himself - and not only can he, but he's done it over and over in big spots.  I give the x-factor advantage to UCONN, and along with the coach factor that makes this one an easy decision.  Take UCONN -1 (3 units).

Florida -3 vs. BYU:  This one's a rematch of a thrilling first-round match-up from last year that saw BYU take the Gators down in triple-overtime.  Both teams are mainly still intact from last year, particularly Florida who has the same starting five, so if you're looking for some kind of x-factor that could be it.

Personally, I'm a bit more interested in how BYU's has survived without being exposed for a lack of a big man by Brandon Davies suspension for playing a little pickle.  Basically neither of their first two opponents has been able to throw an athletic big man at them - the type of player the Cougars need Davies around in order to slow down.  Wofford's Noah Dahlman is efficient, but he'll never be described as an incredible athlete, while Robert Sacre from Gonzaga is more of a defensive presence.  The real question is if Florida's interior players can make BYU pay for their honor code.

Neither Alex Tyus or Vernon Macklin are offensive juggernauts, although they average 20 pts and 11 rebounds per game between the two of them, but the biggest stat affecting this game is their three-point shooting - specifically their lack of interest in in with just 5 attempts between the two of them all season.  This means they're basically just going to camp in the lane - bad news for the Cougars.  SDSU's Billy Thomas and Malcolm White are similar players to Tyus and Macklin, and in the first two games with Davies BYU held them to a combined average of 17 points and 12 rebounds - both Cougar wins.  In their third game with Davies in street clothes those two went off for 30 and 19 and the Aztecs won.  Good enough for me.  The pick is Florida -3 for 2 units.  BONUS:  Take the OVER 149.5 for a unit.  Florida is going to score at will in the paint, which means BYU is going to have to score a ton to keep this close, pushing the final up into the 80s range each.

Duke -8.5 vs. Arizona:  The coaches are a wash because both are excellent in game, although maybe peg Krzyzewski half a point for pre-gaming, and give Arizona a small advantage for being the quasi-home team in this one with the Dukies traveling across the world to play.  What I'm really curious is to see how Derrick Williams of Arizona plays here, because I'm getting a bit of a Danny Manning vibe from him.

Williams, who averaged 19 and 8 this season and was one of the most efficient players in the league with a FG% of .600 (.581 from three), has scored 22 and 17 (with 10 and 9 boards) in the Wildcats' first two wins and had a game-winning play in each, one from each end (blocked shot vs. Memphis, 3-point play vs. Texas).  Of note is that Duke played a similar player to Arizona's Williams this year twice in Maryland's Jordan Williams, who went for 20 and 10 and 16 and 16 in the two games.  In Duke's late loss to UNC John Henson went 10 and 12.  Virginia Tech's Jeff Allen scored 18 and grabbed 15 in their win over the Dukies, and Justin Brownlee was 20 and 9 in St. J's win - nearly double his season averages.

Look, I'm not saying Arizona is going to win, but I am saying this is interesting.  You have one of the best players in the country carrying his team right now and running himself into possibly the #1 pick in the NBA Draft, and he just so happens to be the kind of player who Duke struggles to contain - the same Duke team that's flying all the way across the country for what will be a semi-road game.  Personally, I'm taking Arizona and the +8.5 points for 3 units, but right now if you threw a little cash at the moneyline on Zona you're getting nearly 4/1 odds.  I can see it.

Wisconsin -4.5 vs. Butler:  In many ways, Butler is just a slightly worse version of Wisconsin - both teams play very efficient offense, good but not great defense, limit opponents possessions by taking extreme care of the basketball and not allowing offensive rebounds, and play at a slow pace.  Hell, they even have the same black guy do everything ball-handler guard and big white guy combination.  The real question is:  is Wisconsin 4.5 half points better than Butler, or less?

Two things have me thinking that Butler is the play here:  Timing, and Ronald Nored.  As far as timing goes, Butler has struggled all year, even losing five Horizon games and suddenly looking like they wouldn't get an invite to the tournament.  Since a three-game losing streak mid-season they've now won the next 11 in a row including a sweep of the second best team in their league (Cleveland State), a win over a team that had previously swept them (Milwaukee) and wins over two very good teams in ODU and Pitt - clearly they're hot.  The other reason is Nored - the Bulldogs best defender.  He's not much for scoring (he'd be great as a BYU student) so he can just chase Jordan Taylor around all day and use his energy up that way, leaving Shelvin Mack free to concentrate on offense.  On the flip side, Wisconsin doesn't have anybody outside of Taylor who I can see Bo Ryan using to guard Mack, so Taylor's going to be playing double duty.  Not that he can't handle it, but it's a small advantage toward the Butler side of this one.

Look, I don't know who is going to win this one and I'm really glad I don't have to pick a winner.  I think this game is straight 50/50, but those small advantages detailed above tell me that the best bet here is to go ahead and take Butler +4.5 for two units, because this should come down to the wire.  As a little bonus, that OVER/UNDER 124 number looks pretty interesting, and I'm taking the OVER 124 for three units.  Both teams play slow but neither is a necessarily great defense.  Since both teams take great care of the basketball (and neither defense is particularly adept at taking it away), both teams will get their shots.  Since both teams are efficient scoring machines, they should score some points.


So there's Thursday's games.  Those should work out pretty well because I've got a lot better feeling for this set than I do for the next nights.  I'll do some math, run some numbers, read some things, and see how I come out.  Right now I'm thinking Ohio State and three question marks.  Stay tuned.

Week in Review - 02.28.2011

 So I didn't watch the Gopher game.  I would have, but circumstances conspired to keep me from witnessing that crime against basketball.  We had a family bowling tournament that normally would have ended up with me watching the game with Snacks and Grandslam at a bar or at the alley, but one of my damn wiener kids got all barfy and we had to go home before after just one game (132 - holla).  Then I had the game tivo'd and was going to watch it later, but I got a texted from Bogart referencing the NIT, one from Dawger that mentioned he hated the gophers and hated his life, and one from Snacks that just flat out said, "Don't bother watching.  Gophers lose."  So I didn't watch.

I mean, what's the point?  I would just end up angry and probably hurt either a loved one or myself or a stranger who was walking past my house life before, so I didn't bother.  Not sure if I'll watch another Gopher game this year outside of the Penn State game, and that's only because I'll be in attendance with Wonderbaby^TM who rocks way more than you do.  There were years in the past when I really enjoyed the NIT, and enjoyed going to games at Williams and checking out teams I normally would never see in person.  This is not that kind of year.  This is more like, at the beginning of the year the NIT was a worst case scenario and the kind of thing that could only happen if there was a complete collapse.  Nobody thought this would be the end result, even if there was always a little nervous laughter and whistling past the graveyard if it was brought up.

Kill me. 


WHO WAS AWESOME

1.  Syracuse Orange.  Well here's a team that's impossible to figure out.  They start 18-0 and look like they're on the road to a #1 seed, then lose six out of eight and appear to be unable to guard quick, penetrating guards, then they follow it up with a four game winning streak including two this week against Villanova and Georgetown - teams with excellent guard play (and even with Wright hurt the Hoyas have good guards), and win both of those on the road no less.  I had a chance to watch decent chunks of both those games and all I can say is wow to Scoop Jardine.  Kris Joseph is a dynamic scorer and Rick Jackson is a beast in the paint, but this team may go as Scoop goes, and this week he was on fire going for 20 pts and 6 assists against Nova and 17 and 5 against G-Town.  I was convinced I would have the Cuse as an early out in March as soon as they faced a team with good guards, but watching the adjustments Boeheim has made to their 2-3 (less ball pressure, more gap help) and Scoop's resurgence now I just don't know.  Just like everything else about this god damn stupid season.

2.  BYU Cougars.  If you're like me you're handsome, rich, and successful, but you also figured that San Diego State was the real threat out of the Mountain West while BYU was more of a one-man trick with Jimmer and weren't a "real" team.  Well you couldn't have been more wrong and should hang your head in shame because the Cougars went to SDSU this weekend and smacked them right in the face, walking out with an 80-67 win, a season sweep of the Aztecs, and what is now looking quite likely like a 2-3 seed in March.  That win followed up a trouncing of bubble hopeful Colorado State earlier in the week, and suddenly BYU's challenges prior to a MWC Tournament semi-final are pretty much done with.  Will this finally be the year they breakthrough and make a run?  Last year they beat Florida in overtime, their first NCAA victory since 1993, snapping an 0-7 streak.  With most of the same team back that went first round-first round-second round, a bonafide star in Fredette, and at worst a 4-seed, I'd say the sweet 16 should be an absolute minimum goal right now.

3.  Colorado Buffaloes.  I realize as Gopher basketball fans we aren't really accustomed to this, but occasionally it happens where a team making a run towards an NCAA bid has the opportunity for a huge, almost status-changing win and actually, you know, wins.  Colorado is just such a team this year, seizing their chance and knocking off the #5 Texas Longhorns 91-89.  They did it in very impressive, "we're not going to let this season die yet dammit we're going to fight" fashion, storming back from a 22-point first half deficit to grab the marquee win they really needed, moving themselves from probably not in to squarely in the middle of the "maybe" tier.  It's just so nice to see a team actually rise up and win a tough game they really need.  I wish I knew what that was like.

4.  Marquette Eagles.  Another middle of the bubble team that took a huge step towards the good side, it now looks extremely likely the Big East is going to send 11 teams to the big dance.  The Eagles snagged a huge marquee victory earlier this week by going into Storrs and beating UCONN.  Not only was that a monster win for them in terms of beating a top flight team on the road, but it also got them above .500 in Big East play - a not insignificant milestone considering the strength of the league.  They then managed to avoid falling into a lull and beat Providence this weekend.  I guess that's not that big a deal since they've lost six straight, but anytime you got a guy who can go for 52, as the Friars' Marshon Brooks did against Notre Dame on Wednesday, you're dangerous.  In any case, Marquette is now almost assuredly in - as long as they don't choke here in the last few games.

5.  JaJuan Johnson.  Man, as much as it's going to help the Gophers I'm really going to miss watching this guy - he's freaking unreal.  When he was younger I compared him to Hakim Warrick, and Snake always refers to him as "The College KG", and he might be better than that.  I loved Hakim Warrick, and compared Johnson to him because of their long arms and ability to shoot outside, but Johnson is so much more than Warrick ever was - and that's no slight to Hakim.  His line in Purdue's 67-47 win over Michigan State was incredible:  20 points on 8-13 shooting, 17 rebounds, and 7 blocks.  The amazing thing is that it's not really even that far off his normal night.  He's shooting 50% on the year, and while that might not seem that great for a center, if you watched him play you know how many 18 footers and so on he takes, so that 50% is very, very good.  [Side note:  does anybody know of a site that keeps insane stats for college like shooting percentage on long 2s or other things like that you can find for NBA players?]  The guy is absolutely in a class by himself and should be the runaway winner for Big 10 player of the year.  I'm going to shed a tiny tear when Purdue gets bounced from the tournament and his career comes to a close.  And I'll make sure to follow his pro career in Europe closely. 


WHO SUCKED

1.   Corey Fisher.  Holy Scottie Reynolds, batman!  Villanova lost two games this week, both at home, but both were to very good teams (Syracuse and St. Johns) so it's hard to rip on the Wildcats too much.  Good thing for us though it's not too hard to rip on Corey Fisher, who had a truly Reynolds-esque run this week, shooting a combined 4-26 from the floor in the two games.  That's not a joke or anything, he went 3-16 against 'Cuse and then went 1-10 against St Johns.  And this is their leading scorer here.  Is there some kind of law that Nova must always have a gunner with no conscience who sucks at shooting but loves shooting?  Did Reynolds "will" his ability to Fisher in the school paper after he graduated?  Seriously, anybody who has Villanova surviving the first weekend in their bracket should be committed. 

2.  Arizona Wildcats.  Ah, the Pac-10, where good teams continually find ways to die.  Washington looked like the class of the league but bombed out, leaving the top clear for Arizona.  Until this week, that is, when the Wildcats took their LA trip and lost to both USC and UCLA, and although both losses are understandable the USC loss is a game a good team wins and the UCLA loss was an absolute shellacking by 22.  Suddenly UCLA is looking like the class of the league, but in reality I still think Washington is the only Pac-10 team with a legit chance at making the sweet 16.  Arizona would have to get a really good draw to do it and UCLA has no chance, so it's up to Washington, who recently got swept by the Oregon schools.  Wow, the Pac-10 is awesome.  Good thing for them they have all the hot chicks at least.

 
3.  Nebraska Cornhuskers.  On the completely opposite end of the spectrum from Colorado stepping up is Nebraska, who crashed on burned their NCAA chances to a level that could only be described as St. Marysian.  First they got bounced at home by Kansas State, a fellow bubble team, and then followed it up by losing at Iowa State - a school/team I love but also a team that you absolutely, 100%, guaranteed cannot lose to if you want to get a bid to the NCAA Tournament.  So that won't be happening, but you'll be very happy to know that Nebraska, after decades of ineptitude, has decided to become frisky just as they're about to enter the Big Ten.  Yeah, another team the Gophers should beat but won't.  Another crappy team that will beat them at home as the season winds down and the Gophers desperately need a win.  Another shitty team they won't be able to beat on the road, even when they are supposed to have a good team.  God dammit.  All of it.  Everything.  I hate everyone.  I hate you.

4.  Boston College Eagles.  Allegedly BC is still alive to get a bid, but after they lost to Miami - at home, I'm just not seeing it.  They bounced back by beating Virginia over the weekend, but that brings them to just 7-7 in a very weak ACC this year.  They do have a very good win with their victory over Texas A&M in Orlando, but they also have some brutal losses - Harvard, Yale, Rhode Island, and they got swept by the Hurricanes.  They're just a thoroughly mediocre team, and if they get in the tournament this year that just goes to show just how weak the teams are and just how easy it is to get a bid this year.  And yes, I'm aware that in a year where it's looking extremely easy to get in the Gophers won't make it in Tubby Smith's fourth year here.  Yeah, I'd say we're right where we thought we'd be in Year Four.

5.  Tennessee Volunteers.  There are plenty of confusing teams this year, teams who you can't quite get a handle on, but Tennessee might be the worst of all.  Just this week was a pretty good microcosm of their season - beating a very good, sweet-16 type team in Vanderbilt on the road, and then coming home and losing to mediocre at best, potential Gopher NIT opponent Mississippi State.  As far as the entire season goes, here are some impressive games they've won:  @ Kentucky, @ Vandy, Memphis, Pitt, Villanova, Vandy, VCU - that's a damn impressive list of wins.  But here are some of their losses:  Oakland, Charlotte, USC, @ Arkansas, Mississippi State - those are some bad teams.  Just a mess of a confusing and weird team.  They're so schizo I won't even bet on them come March.

Just kidding.
 


Take heart, Gopher fans.  Not because of anything to do with the Gophers, but this week kicks off conference tournament week, which is followed by BCS conferences tournament week, which is then followed by the NCAA Tournament.  So just go ahead and let go of this season and enjoy all the high quality ball that's coming in the next two weeks.

Week in Review - 02.07.11

 Well that was pretty thoroughly depressing.  Ohio State completely controlled that game the whole way and, just in case you were starting to suffer from delusions of grandeur, reminded you that the Gophers are completely mediocre, and nothing more than first round fodder for a good team to take down.  Chip Armelin played his ass off and made me love him even more than I already do, Hoff always plays hard, and Mbakwe is still a beast, but god most of these guys drive me crazy.  Ralph had a good statistical game, but I swear he suffers from some sort of modified form of narcolepsy where instead of falling asleep he just falls into a general malaise, and I think Rodney Williams sometimes forgets he's actually playing a basketball game for real and isn't just messing around with some buddies at the gym.  And for a "tough guy" Iverson has periods where he's as soft as new born baby.

Terrible defense yesterday, too.  How many open layups and dunks did Ohio State get, my god.  And most of those were off of poor decisions or poor effort.  And did they really need to double-down every time anybody got the ball in the post?  Ohio State shoots way too well for that.  And why did Hoff disappear for about 8 minutes of game time in the middle of the second half?  I just don't get how this game unfolded.  Yeah, Ohio State is far more talented and just an overall better team, but the Gophers didn't even bother to put up a fight, and just gave the damn thing away.  I think the upside for this season has now shifted to a first round NCAA win.  Let's hope they can get that done.  And also maybe pick up a point guard from somewhere.

WHO WAS AWESOME

1.  Florida Gators.  Pretty much gotta be the team of the week, and for good reason.  If you can admit that Tennessee and the whole SEC West sucks then there are only three good teams in the conference:  Florida, Vanderbilt, and Kentucky.  And guess who Florida beat this week?  Yep, Vandy and Kentucky.  Both wins came at home, so it isn't an earth-shaking pair of victories, but it's always nice to assert yourself and win at home.  I still think Vandy is probably the best team in this conference, but I think Florida is probably better than Kentucky.  Those two chuckers they play at guard make me awfully nervous, but I think Chandler Parsons, though having the name of a rich gay guy, is the kind of all-around player who can step up and help carry a team in March.  Assuming they aren't completely shot out of the game those two chuckleheads.

2.  Arizona Wildcats.  Guess who's leading the Pac-10?  It's not Washington because they suck, but Arizona was able to take care of business this week, winning both games on their North California swing versus Stanford and Cal.  It's not really any great shakes beating either of those squads, especially when it takes you triple OT to beat the Bears, but they were able to win two road games, something those donkeys from Washington couldn't handle.  Derrick Williams is a really, really good player, but he doesn't have much help which means Zona is heading towards a nice first round exit come March.  But at least that first round exit will happen in the NCAAs, not the NIT.  Probably.

3.  Harrison Barnes.  He started as a well-publicized All-American as a freshman, quickly became the poster child for overhyped, overrated, freshmen who get too much press despite not having accomplished anything yet, but at this point he's finally starting to look like he might be getting it, and the Tar Heels are clicking.  Barnes helped lead UNC to a big road win over Boston College earlier this week, scoring 26 points on 9-16 shooting, and then followed that up with a nice 17 and 10 outing against Florida State - an excellent defensive squad (and those come after a 25-point night against NC State last week).  With him coming around and Kendall Marshall filling in nicely as the starting PG after Larry Drew's departure (he had 16 assists in that FSU game), the Heels are suddenly looking like a threat, and making the Gophers' March resume look better.  

4.  Wisconsin Badgers.  I don't much like to praise anything or anybody from, affiliated with, or who has heard of Wisconsin, but it's time to give credit to the Badgers who, after beating Purdue and then soundly thrashing Michigan State have laid out a pretty convincing case to be the #2 team in the conference.  Looking back at their record their three losses were on the road against a very hot and dangerous Penn State (except this weekend against Michigan, LOL), on a neutral court against a now top-10 Notre Dame, and in Vegas against UNLV - potentially all three NCAA teams, although it looks bleak for the Nittany Lions right now.  And all this with only two players who don't trip over their own feet at least three times a day.  Maybe Bo Ryan really is some kind of wizardly grinch.

5.  Syracuse Orange.  What's a damn good way to stop a four-game losing streak that followed an 18 game winning streak and included a home loss to Seton Hall?  How about going up to Storrs, Connecticut and beating the #7 team in the country in their own place?  Rick Jackson had another double-double (his 16th), but Scoop Jardine and Fab Melo still sucked, and then those two still sucked against South Florida on Saturday, even thought the Orange won.  So even though this entry is about how awesome Syracuse was, I'm also saying that unless Scoop remembers how to shoot or they get anything out of Melo, they aren't really a March threat. 


WHO SUCKED

1.  Washington Huskies.  Way to go, dingleberries.  The easiest road trip in the Pac-10 is to Oregon, where the Ducks and Beavers might be the second and third worst team in the conference (Ariz State is #1, hands down), so what does Warshington do on their trip this week?  Drop both games to fall out of first place, losing by 13 to Oregon State and 5 to the regular Oregon.  Special shout out to Isaiah Thomas, who shot 2-11 with 7 turnovers against State, practically giving the game away single-handedly.  Maybe he's the one who's point-shaving?  With five home games left and just two roadies (the Arizona trip) their still in good shape, if not to overtake Arizona at least to grab an at large bid in March thankfully, because there's not much that's more fun than watching Washington circus ball. 

2.  Michigan State Spartans.  What else is there left to write?  They lost to Iowa by 20, and then got smoked by Wisconsin by almost 30.  I don't know what you call it when you fall further than rock bottom, but whatever it is that's where you'd find Sparty right now.  I can't imagine being a fan of there's right now, must be brutally frustrating.

3.  Demetri McCamey.  You guys know this guy sucks, right?  I know his overall numbers for the season look good, but in his last seven games he's shot 20 for 69, turned it over 22 times, and basically kicked away the game a handful of times.  I can't get over it, and mostly I can't get over how at the end of the Indiana game they used Brandon Paul to run their offense instead of their "point" guard.  I am going to be everything I own against them in March.

4.  Baylor Bears.  Seriously?  I mean seriously?  An elite 8 team last year that brought in one of the best freshmen in the country, and you can't even beat Oklahoma or manage a better than .500 record in the Big 12, which has like, 3 good teams?  Iowa State's only conference victory is over Baylor, and they haven't beaten anybody with a pulse this entire year, generally preferring to not even compete.  Damn it, this team was set up for a very successful season.  They only player they lost was Tweety Carter, and he can't mean anything since the only person nicknamed Tweety who every mattered at all was this chick from my high school who got her nipple pierced and then let me see it.  Just so frustrating.  I thought getting them at 30-1 to win the whole thing was a steal.  Turns out, 30-1 to make the tournament at all might have been poor odds.  And yes I know they helped themselves out with a nice win over A&M on Saturday, but I already wrote all that so it stays.

5.  Texas A&M Aggies.  Speaking of A&M, they did a hell of a job of making sure nobody would make the mistake of thinking they were an elite team ever again.  They were ranked 10th before losing at Nebraska last week, but had a couple of big home games this week that could have helped to cancel that one out.  First they had a huge chance to make a statement with a home game against #3 Texas, but apparently couldn't get up for their hated rival and got blown out 69-49, helped out by their stud Khris Middleton going 0-9 from the floor.  Then they followed that up by losing, again at home, to the basically worthless Baylor Bears.  Just an ugly week, and now they go on the road to Texas Tech and Colorado, games they should win, but then again this could be the beginning of their shame spiral.  Not too dissimilar to the Gophers actually.


Pretty good little Super Bowl, too.  Even though I hate Wisconsin and everything in it, this version of the Packers is easily the least offensive I can ever remember, so their win doesn't kill me inside like it did last time they won.  The only Packer I really hate now is A.J. Hawk, who completely sucks at football but saw how good Clay Matthews is and decided to copy his girlie hair so instead of pointing out how bad he was, maybe people who start referring to them as a tandem and Matthews could save his career.  And it worked.  Way to go, girl.

No, it didn't bug me that they won, and it was a pretty good and entertaining game that I made a little money on (for the second year in a row I lost my game bet but more than made up for it on props - Orange Gatorade, baby!), so I'm pretty satisfied with that part.  The overall production though?  Oof.  The halftime show was completely brutal and other than the Darth Vader commercial overall they were pretty lame, but the worst part of the night was by far how this:

has somehow morphed into Cyndi Lauper.  Seriously, her transition from dream girl to no thank you is nearly complete.  Won't someone step in to prevent this national tragedy?