Guess what fuckers? I may be back. I may also not be back. I am unsure. However since I can't quite get in the mood to care about college basketball this year, maybe writing up some basic stuff will get me motivated again. Who knows. And what better way than to write a Big Ten Preview, using a magazine as my sole source of information? This should be terrible.
1. INDIANA HOOSIERS. Don't worry, there's no doubt Tom Crean will screw everything else and the Hoosiers will underachieve because that's just what he does, but I like the team in general. They have a super nice little big man/guard combo in James Blackmon and Thomas Bryant, and any time you have two players on the same team that make me think how sweet that team would be on NBA Jam you know I'm going to overrate them. Plus I think I read somewhere that this Anunoby guy is suppose to like, make a leap or something. If Crean didn't screw him all up already.
2. WISCONSIN BADGERS. Ugh. Gross. The entire team is back from last year to be boring and white, but they weren't terrible so I suppose they're probably the favorite to win the conference. At least Greg Gard doesn't seem nearly as loathsome as Bo Ryan was. Still pretty loathsome though. Just like that traitor Illlikainenen. I confess that I do like watching Nigel Hayes though. I actually kind of hope he finally has a three point shot figured out, because that would be fun to watch. I feel icky. 80% of this team is voting for Trump.
3. OHIO STATE BUCKEYES. I actually already put down a long shot future wager on them to win the NCAA title at like 66-1, so I gotta stick with it. Yeah, it's probably a dumb bet but that's why it's a longshot. But here's the thing I like. Remember year after year after year, Thad Matta somehow manages to pull in one of the best classes in the country. Like every year. And the really good guys like D'Angelo Russell and DeShaun Thomas eventually leave early for the draft. But all those other guys stick around, and now they're sophomores and juniors and seniors. There's a whole group of pretty good players here. If one (or more!) can step up a bit and become an actually like, super good player this could end up a really good team. Or I'm a big fat idiot.
4. PURDUE BOILERMAKERS. Last year they had three big fat tall guys and things went alright. This year they have two big fat tall guys and that might even work out better since Caleb Swanigen and Isaac Haas (too many As!!) can ball. But they still don't have a backcourt and I don't think they have since Lewis Jackson, who couldn't shoot. But they have Spike Albrecht you say? I still don't get why this is/was a big deal because, spoiler alert, Albrecht sucks. He had one good half against Louisville on national tv and suddenly he's good? He's terrible. A benchwarmer who got hot, went back to warming benches, and then transferred since his coach knew he sucked. Now he's going to suck for a new team. What a huge story!
5. MICHIGAN STATE SPARTANS. This is a weird team for Izzo. He has a killer recruiting class and he's going to need it since there's nothing else here. He has Tum Tum Nairn, who wouldn't shoot the ball if you paid him, and Eron Harris, who wouldn't stop shooting if you cut his arms off, and then like, a bunch of supposedly good freshman. I know putting them fifth is just me falling for the hype of POTENTIAL and UPSIDE, but every other team in this league freaking sucks. I'm serious. Every team after this one is just terrible.
6. MARYLAND TERRAPINS. You know who doesn't suck though? Melo Trimble. He's going to be on a bad team, but he's good enough to pull them up this high. I expect him to shoot approximately one zillion times this year. That is all I can write about Maryland because nobody knows anything else about any of these guys and if they say they do they're lying.
7. ILLINOIS FIGHTING ILLINI. Malcolm Hill also doesn't suck, and also will be in the player of the year hunt. The difference between he and Trimble is that Hill has a few players back that I'm familiar with. So why are they below Maryland? Because I'm tremendously inconsistent. Looking at this roster Tracy Abrams is probably already hurt again, I liked this Mike Thorne guy before he got hurt, and Maverick Morgan has always been a player who existed. They have Leron Black too, who I remember was supposed to be a stud but obviously that hasn't worked out too well at this point, but like Nickelback says "It's never too late."
8. MICHIGAN WOLVERINES. They could be higher if they managed to not get anybody hurt, which seems unlikely. Caris LeVert basically missed his last two seasons here, and Gary Walton was hurt for what seemed like the entire year two seasons ago and I know this because I had him on my fantasy team. Zak Irvin hasn't missed as much time as those guys, but he's been absolutely atrocious and I remember reading it had to do with some injury. Look, I'm not saying Jon Beilein is intentionally hurting his players, but I'm not NOT saying it either.
9. MINNESOTA GOPHERS. This is far more optimistic than most predictions out there, but it's my blog so I can do whatever I want. Once you get down here most of these teams are terrible. Like really terrible, so it wouldn't be hard for one of them to jump up and get as high as 8 or 9 and why not the Gopehrs? They have more experience coming back then the majority of the teams below them, a better recruiting class, and a couple supposedly impact transfers. So there's upside. I think a lot of this season depends on Pitino's coaching. The first year he came here he did a lot of interesting things, particularly on offense, that were refreshing after watching Tubby's teams run nothing but flex over and over again. Then, for some reason, that died and I couldn't ascertain if they were running any set play at all on most of the possessions. That works when you have a loaded, athletic, smart team. Even though I like most of this team, they certainly aren't that. So let's run some plays! Have some fun! Finish ninth!
10. NORTHWESTERN WILDCATS. I have no doubt one year soon Northwestern will finally break through and make the NCAA Tournament, but I'll believe when I see it. Every time they get close they blow it. And since they wear purple might as well make the ole Vikings comparison here. But there's no doubt they've risen above perennial bottom feeder status. The big recruiting splash guy Vic Law looked good his freshman year before missing last year with an injury and I assume he's back. They probably have a big doofy foreign big guy I can make fun of/fall in love with, and Bryant McIntosh is somehow a really, really good player. He's so punchable he probably should have gone to Duke, but he's really good.
11. IOWA HAWKEYES. If you were a reader of this blog, you may remember at once point I was going to do a thing where I kept track of the best chuckers in the country. That, and everything really, fell by the wayside, but I've always remember Peter Jok because he popped up on my list because he had a pretty insane usage rate for a bench player while not being a very good shooter. Well guess what? Everyone is gone from Iowa except for him. Now, last year he kept a pretty high shot rate but was actually an excellent shooter, but with nobody else out there to draw defensive attention I'm predicting he goes back to crappy. Crappy, but high volume. Buckle up.
12. PENN STATE NITTANY LIONS. The only thing I know about Penn State this year is that their best player is Shep Garner, and that makes me smile because his name is Shep. You know who else's name was Shep? The weirdo creepy security guard from Above the Rim who played basketball against air with no ball because he once accidentally killed his best friend. But how can you go against someone who can do this?
You can't! And he's in work clothes! Man, Penn State should really go get this guy.
13. RUTGERS SCARLET KNIGHTS. Rutgers was bad last year. Like really, really bad. Except of course when they spanked the Gophers, which was a really fun game to watch. They have a large chunk of the team back, which is one hand is good because in theory players get better from year to year, but on the other hand is bad because they were really, really bad last season. At least they're interesting. Interesting in that they are wildly inefficient and technically horrible and making baskets, but at the same time play at a really fast pace and put up a whole bunch of shots, while also playing zero defense and if they do manage to make the opponent miss they very rarely get the rebound! In other words, it's fun to watch other teams light them up. Not the Gophers, of course, but other teams.
14. NEBRASKA CORNHUSKERS. Thank god Petteway and Shields are gone and the Huskers can go back to sucking like they're supposed to. We didn't invite Nebraska to the Big Ten to be mildly competitive at basketball, we invited them to be good at football and fight to not be in last place in basketball every year. I was getting pretty sick of them not being completely dreadful and going after many of the same recruits the Gophers were. Now the natural order of things can be restored. Also pretty sick of Tim Miles at this point.
Well there you have it. My completely accurate and well researched predictions for the big ten this season. As far as this blog, I have no idea how often I'll be posting. Maybe after most games. Maybe never again. NOBODY KNOWS!
Showing posts with label Nebraska. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Nebraska. Show all posts
Thursday, November 3, 2016
Friday, January 30, 2015
Game Preview: Gophers vs. Somebody
I'm taking my kids to the Gopher game tomorrow. I just now realized that I have no idea who they're playing, that's how checked out I am this year. That's kind of the reason I haven't written a post game post in a while. I watch the games, I take notes like usual, then the Gophers self combust and lose the game in some kind of disheartening way and I really don't want to write. There's a limited amount of times one can write about the number of poor decisions this team makes, although I am starting to think I may need to write a post addressing Pitino's in game coaching because I have some questions. Anyway, it's more fun to write about a team that isn't the Gophers, so hold on a minute while I look up who they play and write the preview for...............Nebraska!
Nebraska, eh? I'm pretty sure the Gophers already played these guys, let me check how they did. Just kidding I already know they lost because they always lose. Looks like I didn't write a preview or a recap of that one, probably because that was when I was still all checked out and angry and stuff. I remember that one though because I was in the car for the end for some reason and was listening and heard "Hollins misses a three. Morris rebounds. He misses a three. Hollins rebounds, over to Mathieu. Mathieu misses a three. Times up." That was fun. I asked my dad when I got to his house if any of them were good looks and he said two of them were. So it was another stupid loss that probably shouldn't have been. God what a horrid year.
Anyway, Nebraska is still basically a two-man squad with the terrible Terran Petteway and bricklayer Shavon Shields. The two combine for 35.6 points per game, which is huge because Nebraska scores like 60 points per game because they can't shoot at all and play at a snail's pace. The two have also combined for 531 field goal attempts which is a terrifying percentage of the team's total of 1,016. If ever a team was screaming to be triangle and two'd it's this one, and it would actually be hilarious to watch Petteway try to deal with that because man is he ever wreckless.
The guy has a higher usage rate than anyone else in the conference and a top 10 mark in the entire country, yet his offensive rating is below every Gopher other than Bakary Konate. Watching him is awesome if you love chuckers (and who doesn't?) because he'll just shoot whenever and wherever with little regard to anything going on around him. He's not a true chucker because he does hit a little bit too many of them and his assist rate is good, but his turnover rate is in Joey King territory and he just forces the action in some hilarious ways. If the Gophers can speed Nebraska up, easier said than done, there should be at least a handful of laugh out loud moments.
Then there's Shields, who loves to shoot long jumpers. He hits 22% on his threes so letting him shoot is probably a good idea. He's much better on 2-pointers at 55%, but just 43% on jump shots so, you know, let the guy shoot and stuff but keep him out of the lane. Also keeping him off the free throw line would be a good idea since he's an 83% free throw shooter. Actually both Shields and Petteway get to the line a lot, so another good strategy would be not fouling.
Nebraska has some other guys too but they're boring and I'm boring myself over here. Looking forward to watching Petteway be crazy in person, and hoping for a Gopher win so maybe we'll get to watch someone fun like Oregon or Tennessee in person in the NIT. Gophers projected for a #1 seed!!
Minnesota something, Nebraska something slightly smaller.
Nebraska, eh? I'm pretty sure the Gophers already played these guys, let me check how they did. Just kidding I already know they lost because they always lose. Looks like I didn't write a preview or a recap of that one, probably because that was when I was still all checked out and angry and stuff. I remember that one though because I was in the car for the end for some reason and was listening and heard "Hollins misses a three. Morris rebounds. He misses a three. Hollins rebounds, over to Mathieu. Mathieu misses a three. Times up." That was fun. I asked my dad when I got to his house if any of them were good looks and he said two of them were. So it was another stupid loss that probably shouldn't have been. God what a horrid year.
Anyway, Nebraska is still basically a two-man squad with the terrible Terran Petteway and bricklayer Shavon Shields. The two combine for 35.6 points per game, which is huge because Nebraska scores like 60 points per game because they can't shoot at all and play at a snail's pace. The two have also combined for 531 field goal attempts which is a terrifying percentage of the team's total of 1,016. If ever a team was screaming to be triangle and two'd it's this one, and it would actually be hilarious to watch Petteway try to deal with that because man is he ever wreckless.
The guy has a higher usage rate than anyone else in the conference and a top 10 mark in the entire country, yet his offensive rating is below every Gopher other than Bakary Konate. Watching him is awesome if you love chuckers (and who doesn't?) because he'll just shoot whenever and wherever with little regard to anything going on around him. He's not a true chucker because he does hit a little bit too many of them and his assist rate is good, but his turnover rate is in Joey King territory and he just forces the action in some hilarious ways. If the Gophers can speed Nebraska up, easier said than done, there should be at least a handful of laugh out loud moments.
Then there's Shields, who loves to shoot long jumpers. He hits 22% on his threes so letting him shoot is probably a good idea. He's much better on 2-pointers at 55%, but just 43% on jump shots so, you know, let the guy shoot and stuff but keep him out of the lane. Also keeping him off the free throw line would be a good idea since he's an 83% free throw shooter. Actually both Shields and Petteway get to the line a lot, so another good strategy would be not fouling.
Nebraska has some other guys too but they're boring and I'm boring myself over here. Looking forward to watching Petteway be crazy in person, and hoping for a Gopher win so maybe we'll get to watch someone fun like Oregon or Tennessee in person in the NIT. Gophers projected for a #1 seed!!
Minnesota something, Nebraska something slightly smaller.
Tuesday, January 20, 2015
Welcome aboard, Michael Hurt!
Richard Pitino and the Gophers secured their first 2016 commitment recently with Rochester forward Michael Hurt signing on. Hurt may not have the greatest offer list right now (Gophers, Davidson, Northern Iowa, Nebraska, Northwestern, and assorted other mid-majors) but the ratings sights like him quite a bit. 247sports has him as the #155 player in the class and #27 power forward, while ESPN has him all the way up at the #59 overall player and #15 power forward. Likely as time went on Hurt's offers would get more impressive and rumors were Wisconsin and Oregon were sniffing around so locking up the home state kid early a great move by Pitino.
Hurt is a tweener forward, but in this case it sounds like that's a positive. Rather than being too slow to go up against small fowards and too small to go against power forwards, Hurt sounds like he's too quick for small forwards to handle and too big for small forwards and I really hope that sentence made sense. He's said to have an outstanding jump shot with a chance to be one of the best shooters in the class and to be a good enough ball handler where he could do a little bit of a point forward thing if needed. Scouting reports also say he can score well both in transition and the half court, with or without the ball (cutting and such, obviously you can't score without the ball), and when he's the focal point of the defense he's adept and finding open teammates and is a good passer.
Well then. This sounds pretty good. The only weaknesses I could find listed by anyone are he needs size to go against college PFs (not a surprise for a high school kid) and he could be a more aggressive rebounder (and this can be taught).
All-in-all, a very good first pick up for 2016 for the team, and someone with a little bit of size as well which is still looking like a possible future issue. I don't know if Hurt will be able to play PF right away when he gets on campus, but I know he'll be able to shoot and should be a capable player right off the bat. Good start. Oh, and he's lefty, so we'll get to look at that sweet, sweet lefty J. Looking forward to it.
As for tonight's game the Gophers are terrible. Nebraska 70, Minnesota 56.
Hurt is a tweener forward, but in this case it sounds like that's a positive. Rather than being too slow to go up against small fowards and too small to go against power forwards, Hurt sounds like he's too quick for small forwards to handle and too big for small forwards and I really hope that sentence made sense. He's said to have an outstanding jump shot with a chance to be one of the best shooters in the class and to be a good enough ball handler where he could do a little bit of a point forward thing if needed. Scouting reports also say he can score well both in transition and the half court, with or without the ball (cutting and such, obviously you can't score without the ball), and when he's the focal point of the defense he's adept and finding open teammates and is a good passer.
Well then. This sounds pretty good. The only weaknesses I could find listed by anyone are he needs size to go against college PFs (not a surprise for a high school kid) and he could be a more aggressive rebounder (and this can be taught).
All-in-all, a very good first pick up for 2016 for the team, and someone with a little bit of size as well which is still looking like a possible future issue. I don't know if Hurt will be able to play PF right away when he gets on campus, but I know he'll be able to shoot and should be a capable player right off the bat. Good start. Oh, and he's lefty, so we'll get to look at that sweet, sweet lefty J. Looking forward to it.
As for tonight's game the Gophers are terrible. Nebraska 70, Minnesota 56.
Wednesday, November 5, 2014
Big Ten Basketball Preview: #3 Nebraska Cornhuskers
I thought this was going to feel weird and yep, it sure does. Nebraska, third in the Big 10. Wow, crazy. At the same time it makes sense though. The Huskers finished fourth in the conference last season and return nearly everybody from that team. They were 11-7 in conference play and beat Ohio State and Michigan State at home. I mean this is serious, people. Tim Miles is obviously some kind of wizard, and it doesn't look like it's stopping any time soon because he's already inked two ESPN Top 100 dudes for 2015 (Ed Morrow, #62, and Glynn Watson, #66). Seriously what a jerk.
The main reason Nebraska is going to be good this year is the return of Terran Petteway, one of only two All-Big Ten first teamers back this season, and his 18.1 points per game. I love this guy's game. At 6-6 he's the perfect size and has the perfect athleticism and ball handling skills to create his own shot whenever he wants, he can rebound (4.8 per game) and distribute a little bit (1.6 assists per game, but assist rate that was second on the team), and he has a perimeter game. Of course, he only shot 33% from three which is acceptable but not great when you're taking nearly five per game on average. If he's figured out the three-pointer this team suddenly has Sweet 16 potential, and sleeper ability to go further. Not joking.
Another guy who could really help out the team by hitting more accurately from deep is Nebraska's other wing Shavon Shields, who hit less than 32% last season. He's got a nice all around game that compliments Petteway (12.8 ppg/5.8 rpg/1.6apg), and the two of them give Nebraska a potential 1-2 punch that's up there with anyone else in the conference, even if neither of them are dead-eye from deep. With Ray Gallegos, who you may remember from when he torched the Gophers two years ago for 30 points and 6 made three-pointers, and his 54 made 3s gone from the team this year somebody needs to give the Huskers a boost from outside, and it's likely Petteway or Shields.
Of course, things aren't all that desperate because Walter Pitchford is back at power forward and he hit at a 41% clip last season. He's not some dandy either, with about a 50/50 two-pointer/three-pointer split and a defensive rebound rate that's up there as one of the top in the conference. That high three-point conversion and a 54% 2-point percentage makes him one of the most efficient players in the B10. The Huskers did get hit by a bit of blow when returning senior PF Leslee Smith went down for the year with a knee tear. He's not much for scoring but he supplied rebounding and defense and they'll have to find a way to replace that production. Senior David Rivers and incoming freshman Jacob Hammond will have to come up big. There's also some grad transfer guy from Georgetown who was terrible there so who knows.
The main question for the Huskers is really at PG, where Tai Webster didn't really live up to expectations last season (4 pts/2 assists per game in 23 minutes). The only other PGs on the roster are undersized Benny Parker (5-9) who is better served as a mini offensive energy explosion off the bench (think Microwave) and freshman Tarin Smith who may not be ready and is just 165 lbs. at 6-2 which won't really cut it right away in the Big Ten. Webster is from New Zealand and I read somewhere last season that somebody said if he had been in the US he'd be a top 50 recruit, but that certainly didn't play out last season. I know I already said Petteway could elevate this team another level, but Webster is probably the most important player for Nebraska this year. Watson should be a stud PG next season and Rivers and G-Town guy are the only seniors, but Petteway could bolt to the NBA so it'd be good for them to make a run this year.
Look I don't know. Even after writing all that it still seems weird to have Nebraska predicted to finish in third place in the conference, but after reading all that it completely makes sense. They have a great coach, a program on the rise, a ton of experience back, and one of the top players in the conference returning. Honestly if it wasn't Nebraska they could even go one place higher, but I'm just not ready to do it yet. I just can't. Hell of a turnaround by Miles though. Gonna suck for them when Pitino and the Gophers dominate the conference every year eventually when that happens. When not if.
OTHER PREVIEWS:
#4 MINNESOTA GOLDEN GOPHERS
#5 ILLINOIS FIGHTING ILLINI
#6 MICHIGAN
#7 MICHIGAN STATE
#8 IOWA HAWKEYES
#9 MARYLAND TERRAPINS
#10 INDIANA HOOSIERS
#11 PENN STATE NITTANY LIONS
#12 NORTHWESTERN WILDCATS
#13 PURDUE BOILERMAKERS
#14 RUTGERS SCARLET KNIGHTS
The main reason Nebraska is going to be good this year is the return of Terran Petteway, one of only two All-Big Ten first teamers back this season, and his 18.1 points per game. I love this guy's game. At 6-6 he's the perfect size and has the perfect athleticism and ball handling skills to create his own shot whenever he wants, he can rebound (4.8 per game) and distribute a little bit (1.6 assists per game, but assist rate that was second on the team), and he has a perimeter game. Of course, he only shot 33% from three which is acceptable but not great when you're taking nearly five per game on average. If he's figured out the three-pointer this team suddenly has Sweet 16 potential, and sleeper ability to go further. Not joking.
Another guy who could really help out the team by hitting more accurately from deep is Nebraska's other wing Shavon Shields, who hit less than 32% last season. He's got a nice all around game that compliments Petteway (12.8 ppg/5.8 rpg/1.6apg), and the two of them give Nebraska a potential 1-2 punch that's up there with anyone else in the conference, even if neither of them are dead-eye from deep. With Ray Gallegos, who you may remember from when he torched the Gophers two years ago for 30 points and 6 made three-pointers, and his 54 made 3s gone from the team this year somebody needs to give the Huskers a boost from outside, and it's likely Petteway or Shields.
Of course, things aren't all that desperate because Walter Pitchford is back at power forward and he hit at a 41% clip last season. He's not some dandy either, with about a 50/50 two-pointer/three-pointer split and a defensive rebound rate that's up there as one of the top in the conference. That high three-point conversion and a 54% 2-point percentage makes him one of the most efficient players in the B10. The Huskers did get hit by a bit of blow when returning senior PF Leslee Smith went down for the year with a knee tear. He's not much for scoring but he supplied rebounding and defense and they'll have to find a way to replace that production. Senior David Rivers and incoming freshman Jacob Hammond will have to come up big. There's also some grad transfer guy from Georgetown who was terrible there so who knows.
The main question for the Huskers is really at PG, where Tai Webster didn't really live up to expectations last season (4 pts/2 assists per game in 23 minutes). The only other PGs on the roster are undersized Benny Parker (5-9) who is better served as a mini offensive energy explosion off the bench (think Microwave) and freshman Tarin Smith who may not be ready and is just 165 lbs. at 6-2 which won't really cut it right away in the Big Ten. Webster is from New Zealand and I read somewhere last season that somebody said if he had been in the US he'd be a top 50 recruit, but that certainly didn't play out last season. I know I already said Petteway could elevate this team another level, but Webster is probably the most important player for Nebraska this year. Watson should be a stud PG next season and Rivers and G-Town guy are the only seniors, but Petteway could bolt to the NBA so it'd be good for them to make a run this year.
Look I don't know. Even after writing all that it still seems weird to have Nebraska predicted to finish in third place in the conference, but after reading all that it completely makes sense. They have a great coach, a program on the rise, a ton of experience back, and one of the top players in the conference returning. Honestly if it wasn't Nebraska they could even go one place higher, but I'm just not ready to do it yet. I just can't. Hell of a turnaround by Miles though. Gonna suck for them when Pitino and the Gophers dominate the conference every year eventually when that happens. When not if.
OTHER PREVIEWS:
#4 MINNESOTA GOLDEN GOPHERS
#5 ILLINOIS FIGHTING ILLINI
#6 MICHIGAN
#7 MICHIGAN STATE
#8 IOWA HAWKEYES
#9 MARYLAND TERRAPINS
#10 INDIANA HOOSIERS
#11 PENN STATE NITTANY LIONS
#12 NORTHWESTERN WILDCATS
#13 PURDUE BOILERMAKERS
#14 RUTGERS SCARLET KNIGHTS
Friday, January 24, 2014
Game Preview: Gophers vs. Cornhuskers
Nebraska is not a great team. Depending on your definition, they may not even be a good team. They have, after all, lost six of their last seven games and hold only a win over Miami as anything remotely quality outside of conference play. Nebraska, however, is certainly not the shitty team we've become accustomed to. Of their last seven games only two were at home and many were against quality opponents, and the two home games resulted in a win over Ohio State (you can decide how much that is worth right now) and a near win over Michigan (1-pt loss where Nebraska had two chances to win). This isn't going to be an easy walk over for the Gophers, especially with Andre Hollins almost certainly on the shelf.
On paper the key to this game will be if the Gophers stick to the offensive game plan of dribble penetration and getting the ball to the big guys on the block. Nebraska really only has one decent interior defender in Leslee Smith (6-8 junior). Their only other "big" is 6-10 Walter Pitchford, and he's more of one of them perimeter types. As a result, Nebraska blocks very few shots and their overall interior defense is terrible. Even with Hollins out, Dre Mathieu should be able to get into the paint for his suddenly unstoppable jumper and both Eliason and Mo Walker should be able find success when they get the ball down low.
Of course, Tim Miles will know this, and Tim Miles is smart, so the real key to the game will be Gopher perimeter shooting. Nebraska is mainly a man-to-man team, but they played almost exclusively zone against Ohio State and it led to a victory, so I fully expect to see it on Sunday. On the season the Gophers aren't exactly lighting it up from three at 35.4%, and you take Dre Hollins out of the equation and they're hitting just 34%. The Gophers will have to hit enough shots to get Nebraska to open up that gooey soft inside. Malik Smith can't be off, Austin Hollins has to hit at least a couple of shots, and I'm even going to say Maverick (you know he'll get some PT) will have to hit a shot or two. If Minnesota can hit from the outside this could be a rout, but that's a pretty damn big if.
Nebraska's offense is not very good, but neither is the Gopher defense. Unless Nebraska gets hot from three, which could happen but isn't particularly likely (although Ray Gallegos is still there, *shudder*), they're going to put up 65ish points. The Gophers just have to score more, and they'll need some 3-balls to do it.
Gophers 74, Nebraska 65
On paper the key to this game will be if the Gophers stick to the offensive game plan of dribble penetration and getting the ball to the big guys on the block. Nebraska really only has one decent interior defender in Leslee Smith (6-8 junior). Their only other "big" is 6-10 Walter Pitchford, and he's more of one of them perimeter types. As a result, Nebraska blocks very few shots and their overall interior defense is terrible. Even with Hollins out, Dre Mathieu should be able to get into the paint for his suddenly unstoppable jumper and both Eliason and Mo Walker should be able find success when they get the ball down low.
Of course, Tim Miles will know this, and Tim Miles is smart, so the real key to the game will be Gopher perimeter shooting. Nebraska is mainly a man-to-man team, but they played almost exclusively zone against Ohio State and it led to a victory, so I fully expect to see it on Sunday. On the season the Gophers aren't exactly lighting it up from three at 35.4%, and you take Dre Hollins out of the equation and they're hitting just 34%. The Gophers will have to hit enough shots to get Nebraska to open up that gooey soft inside. Malik Smith can't be off, Austin Hollins has to hit at least a couple of shots, and I'm even going to say Maverick (you know he'll get some PT) will have to hit a shot or two. If Minnesota can hit from the outside this could be a rout, but that's a pretty damn big if.
Nebraska's offense is not very good, but neither is the Gopher defense. Unless Nebraska gets hot from three, which could happen but isn't particularly likely (although Ray Gallegos is still there, *shudder*), they're going to put up 65ish points. The Gophers just have to score more, and they'll need some 3-balls to do it.
Gophers 74, Nebraska 65
Thursday, December 19, 2013
Game Preview: Gophers vs. Nebraska-Omaha
After the lengthy break and preceding another one, the Gophers will take on the Nebraska-Omaha Mavericks Friday night. Unlike the last two worthless games, I will be previewing this one. Not because it's a more important game or anything, but because I will be in attendance (for at least a half probably) and as such, I like to know what I'm watching.
Nebraksa-Omaha is an actual real Division I team and not some NAIA squad or something, and the Mavericks have had some success this year with a record of 8-3 including a win over Nevada (who is actually terrible this year but the name probably still means a little bit). Their three losses were all road games and they were in each one, losing by 8 to both Iowa and Drake and by 3 to UNLV. This tells me this team has a chance to be quite pesky.
How are they pesky? A high pressure man-to-man defense that creates turnovers, and the ability to both get to the line often and convert when there. They push tempo like crazy (MORE CIRCUS BALL!!!), ranking 8th in adjusted tempo this year after finishing 1st and 11th the previous two seasons, and a pace like that with pressure helps to create those turnovers (Iowa had 18, UNLV 21) needs in order to compete because they suck at rebounding. When they do have the ball, they will look to get into the paint where they are adept at creating fouls (65th in the country) and they excel at the line shooting 76.5% this year (13th).
UNO is a pretty balanced squad overall, with all eleven players on the roster averaging at least 11.5 minutes per game with 8 of them averaging at least 6 points per game. The three main cogs in the offense are C.J. Carter (15.1ppg/2.9rpg/3.3apg), John Karhoff (13/3.9/1.6), and Devin Patterson (12.6/3.1/4.0). Carter and Patterson are both little guys (6-1 and 5-11) who can handle the ball and excel at getting to the rim. Both can hit the three (41% and 35%) and Patterson is incredible when it comes to drawing fouls for a little guy, having taken 72 foul shots on the year compared to 83 field goal attemps, a ratio good for 40th best in the country. Karhoff is a bigger guy at 6-8, but is basically a perimeter guy only without a three point shot. He doesn't rebound well and takes a whole lot of jumpers.
With small guards and a perimeter based big man you'd think the Mavericks would be terrible at rebounding and they are. They do have two big dopey guys who grab most of their rebounds and don't score much in Mike Rostampour (5.8rpg) and Matt Hagerbaumer (7.4prg), but they are a below average rebounding team on both sides of the ball. Despite the Gophers size limitations they've been a good rebounding team this year, particularly offensively, and they should be able to exploit this to their advantage.
There is a tiny bit of upset potential here. We saw against Arkansas what happens when you try to speed up a team who loves to play fast, but the Gophers are getting better at it and UNO's personnel doesn't begin to resemble Arkansas. The Mavericks could aslo make a game of it if Carter and Patterson can get to the rim and the free throw line, but overall UNO just isn't good enough. The Gophers zone will most likely swallow up the guards' penetration and the Mavericks will have to hit shots from the perimeter in order to make a run at a big win. They're not a very good 3-point shooting team (34.3%, ranks 148th), but they do have a tendency to fall in love with the shot (37.1% of attempts are threes, ranks 72nd). Unless they're white hot from beyond the arc, the Gophers should win this handily, and it should be pretty fun in a circus ball-y way.
Minnesota 90, Omaha 66
*************CHUCKER ALERT********************
I almost forgot to mention we have a chucker alert with Omaha in guard Justin Simmons. His playing time has been limited since a back injury in late November, but hopefully he'll be at full strength because he's a chucker. He takes 31.1% of the team's shots when he's in the game, but is shooting just 28% this year thanks mainly to his awesome 4-30 on 3-pointers (and also his terrible 38% on 2s). He also has a low assist rate at just 11%, so you know he really hates passing. He was top 20 last season in % of shots taken too, so you know it's not a fluke (although he shot much better). This year he has games where he's shot 0-9, 2-13, and 3-12. I love him already. I hope he's healthy.
Nebraksa-Omaha is an actual real Division I team and not some NAIA squad or something, and the Mavericks have had some success this year with a record of 8-3 including a win over Nevada (who is actually terrible this year but the name probably still means a little bit). Their three losses were all road games and they were in each one, losing by 8 to both Iowa and Drake and by 3 to UNLV. This tells me this team has a chance to be quite pesky.
How are they pesky? A high pressure man-to-man defense that creates turnovers, and the ability to both get to the line often and convert when there. They push tempo like crazy (MORE CIRCUS BALL!!!), ranking 8th in adjusted tempo this year after finishing 1st and 11th the previous two seasons, and a pace like that with pressure helps to create those turnovers (Iowa had 18, UNLV 21) needs in order to compete because they suck at rebounding. When they do have the ball, they will look to get into the paint where they are adept at creating fouls (65th in the country) and they excel at the line shooting 76.5% this year (13th).
UNO is a pretty balanced squad overall, with all eleven players on the roster averaging at least 11.5 minutes per game with 8 of them averaging at least 6 points per game. The three main cogs in the offense are C.J. Carter (15.1ppg/2.9rpg/3.3apg), John Karhoff (13/3.9/1.6), and Devin Patterson (12.6/3.1/4.0). Carter and Patterson are both little guys (6-1 and 5-11) who can handle the ball and excel at getting to the rim. Both can hit the three (41% and 35%) and Patterson is incredible when it comes to drawing fouls for a little guy, having taken 72 foul shots on the year compared to 83 field goal attemps, a ratio good for 40th best in the country. Karhoff is a bigger guy at 6-8, but is basically a perimeter guy only without a three point shot. He doesn't rebound well and takes a whole lot of jumpers.
With small guards and a perimeter based big man you'd think the Mavericks would be terrible at rebounding and they are. They do have two big dopey guys who grab most of their rebounds and don't score much in Mike Rostampour (5.8rpg) and Matt Hagerbaumer (7.4prg), but they are a below average rebounding team on both sides of the ball. Despite the Gophers size limitations they've been a good rebounding team this year, particularly offensively, and they should be able to exploit this to their advantage.
There is a tiny bit of upset potential here. We saw against Arkansas what happens when you try to speed up a team who loves to play fast, but the Gophers are getting better at it and UNO's personnel doesn't begin to resemble Arkansas. The Mavericks could aslo make a game of it if Carter and Patterson can get to the rim and the free throw line, but overall UNO just isn't good enough. The Gophers zone will most likely swallow up the guards' penetration and the Mavericks will have to hit shots from the perimeter in order to make a run at a big win. They're not a very good 3-point shooting team (34.3%, ranks 148th), but they do have a tendency to fall in love with the shot (37.1% of attempts are threes, ranks 72nd). Unless they're white hot from beyond the arc, the Gophers should win this handily, and it should be pretty fun in a circus ball-y way.
Minnesota 90, Omaha 66
*************CHUCKER ALERT********************
I almost forgot to mention we have a chucker alert with Omaha in guard Justin Simmons. His playing time has been limited since a back injury in late November, but hopefully he'll be at full strength because he's a chucker. He takes 31.1% of the team's shots when he's in the game, but is shooting just 28% this year thanks mainly to his awesome 4-30 on 3-pointers (and also his terrible 38% on 2s). He also has a low assist rate at just 11%, so you know he really hates passing. He was top 20 last season in % of shots taken too, so you know it's not a fluke (although he shot much better). This year he has games where he's shot 0-9, 2-13, and 3-12. I love him already. I hope he's healthy.
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| The website says these are Omaha cheerleaders |
Tuesday, December 10, 2013
Big Ten Hoops So Far
With the Holiday tournaments and B10/ACC Challenge behind us this a nice time to take a look around the league and see what's happened so far, and what we think we know about these teams. So let's do this, power ranking style of course because we are on the internet after all. As usual, all stats per kenpom.com.
1. WISCONSIN BADGERS. I told you dopes that as much as it pained me to say that Wisconsin would be really good this year, and it appears I may have actually underrated them. 10-0 right now with wins over top 100 kenpom teams St. Johns (67), Florida (13), Green Bay (87), Saint Louis (28), West Virginia (60), Virginia (19), and Marquette (45). That is freaking impressive and easily the best list of anybody in the Big Ten and maybe the nation but it's a lot of work to double check that so let's just run with it. At this point kenpom projects them to win every game the rest of the year other than @Michigan and @Iowa (they don't travel to Columbus or East Lansing), so we're looking at a possible 29-2 with a ton of good wins - a #1 seed for the Badgers?
It's the same formula they use every year - super slow pace of play, good defense, good rebounding, and efficient shooting. Frank Kaminsky is the newest big dumb slow fat white guy who has suddenly blossomed into a star under Bo Ryan and Sam Dekker has been as good as advertised. The one problem they might have is they aren't very deep with the five starters all playing 28+ minutes and no bench guys playing more than 15, and their big time reliance offensively on the three pointer. I suppose that's been their MO, so no need to worry too much. This is a really good Badger team and it sucks.
Shout out to #1 Badger fan Matty Wisconsin. Big fan, Yao Ming jersey wearer, and fastest beer chugger I've ever seen. And he's on twitter! @strykerpks. Check it. He follows @spaghettios and is a big fan of the Beer Stars.
2. OHIO STATE BUCKEYES. At 7-0 with two good wins (Maryland, Marquette) and two decent wins (Ohio, Wyoming) the Buckeyes haven't been seriously challenged (all wins by 10+) and they're doing it, no surprise, with their defense. OSU ranks #1 in total defensive efficiency, #3 in opponents effective field goal %, and #10 in turning their opponent over. Basically they will force turnovers all the time and when they don't it's really hard to make a shot against them.
Of course everyone expected Ohio State to be elite defensively, but the big question was how the Buckeyes would fare on offense with the loss of DeShaun Thomas. Everyone wondered who would step up, and although nobody has really stepped into his place is hasn't mattered because everybody has upped their game just a bit and they're doing it by committee - six players average between 9.0 and 11.4 points per game. It's weird to look at their stats because they only play nine guys - like, literally nine guys as only one other guy has played at all and only two games - and they all play 13+ minutes and all contribute.
I thought Ohio State would struggle this year on the offensive end and that would knock them down a peg, but they're doing just fine as a collective group. There may end up being some rebounding issues that could do them in, and they haven't played a truly great team (and won't until January) so there are still plenty of questions, but I'm impressed so far. Great coaching job by Thad Matta, and I probably should have seen that coming.
3. MICHIGAN STATE SPARTANS. I still think Sparty will probably end up the best team in this conference, but horrendous effort against North Carolina, particularly at home. When was the last time Michigan State was out rebounded that badly (49-38)? It helped that they shot so poorly, of course, and that's another good point because shooting just 40% from 2 is so bad you almost have to try to do that poorly, which would actually explain a lot about that game.
Obviously a loss to North Carolina doesn't wipe out all the good that the early win over Kentucky did, but they've struggled to pull away from teams all year and it's the kind of thing that could bite them in the ass come March. Letting Oklahoma, Columbia, and Portland hang around is really not great considering those are the exact type of teams that Michigan State is likely to face in the first round of the tournament. Of course, it's Tom Izzo here, so the team is likely to get better as the season goes on and I can't imagine an Izzo team ever getting bounced in the first round unless it's already happened and I don't remember and if it has don't remind me - I want to remember Izzo as I remember him, not all mixed up with facts and stuff. That's for nerds.
4. IOWA HAWKEYES. They were everybody's sleeper for this year, and they've more than lived up to that billing. Wins over Drake (#98), Xavier (#65), Notre Dame (#74), and an absolute stomping of UTEP (#90) make up a pretty good resume this early in the season, but Iowa's most impressive outing may have been their overtime loss to Villanova (#5). The Hawkeyes had a double digit lead well into the second half before Nova got white hot to go up 7 with four minute left before Iowa clawed back to tie it up.
Roy Marble looks like he's going to be one of the top players in the conference this year, Aaron White has suddenly morphed into a complete player, and transfer Jarrod Uthoff is way, way better than I ever expected. Those three have plenty of room to operate too, because the team's two point guards (Anthony Clemmons and Mike Gesell) both hate shooting and they don't really have a center. Well they have three, but they're all pretty horrible and are basically the poster children for not developing past your freshman year (seriously they may as well have been coached by Tubby). The Hawkeyes still don't shoot the ball very accurately, but they've done everything else so well this year that it's covered up that issue. Interested to see what happens down the road.
5. MICHIGAN WOLVERINES. This is probably the hardest team to evaluate. They have three losses, but all are explainable (the neutral court loss to Charlotte is a little head scratching, but it's not like they're a bad team). Because of those losses (the other two were @Duke and @Iowa State) the only good win they have is against Florida State in overtime, and the rest are against scrubs. Granted, they've taken care of business against said scrubs and their advanced metrics look good (ranked #27 overall), but there's nothing truly impressive at all in the results, so I mostly have them at #5 based on the belief that they'll come around.
I expect they will mainly because they haven't struggled the way I expected after losing Trey Burke and Tim Hardaway, in that they're taking care of the ball just fine (14th best in TO%). They're still missing out on that driving ability Burke and Hardaway had, although Nik Stauskas is doing his best to fill that role. Right now they only have three real offensive threats, and Glen Robinson seems to be regressing and I have trouble believing Caris LeVert is for real (mainly because of that terrible name). I expect Michigan to end up a Top 25 team, but I won't be shocked if they don't.
6. MINNESOTA GOPHERS. I believe I had them at seven when I did my preseason rankings, so this says I'm impressed enough to move them up a spot, which I suppose is a good thing. I still have one jillion questions about this team, and unfortunately none of them are going to be answered until conference play starts in January because the next three opponents are pretty much worthless as a measuring tool. The rebounding and interior defense will likely continue to be an issue, but Drizzy Matheiu is better than I could have hoped and the guards are going to keep them in a bunch of games and maybe even manage to sneak out and upset or two. I still don't think this is quite an NCAA Tournament team, but it's getting closer. That win over Florida State impressed me. Looking forward to Big Ten play.
7. INDIANA HOOSIERS. I get this impression that people think Indiana is good and guess what? They really aren't. What have they done besides show everyone how big a chucker supposed "point guard" Yogi Ferrell really is? Ok, sure they played a great game against UCONN that went down to the wire. Ok, I'll give you that one. But then they got crushed by Syracuse and they have nothing else on the resume. The win against Washington sounds good, but the Huskies are absolutely terrible. The win over Stony Brook is probably their best win. I actually think the Hoosiers are less likely to bomb out than Michigan, but there are plenty of questions here.
Basically with so many players suddenly thrust into new roles with everything they lost last year the team is struggling with who fits where and how to play together. Thus they're turning the ball over at an alarming rate (21.5% of possessions, ranks 310th) and just not sharing the ball well (328th in assists per field goal). It probably does help when your point guard shoots all the time, but he's also their most efficient player so what do you do? They're very talented and very deep, so a great coach like Tom Crean I'm sure will eventually get this all straightened out.
Ha ha just kidding Crean sucks and is a terrible person and I hope he burns the program to the ground.
8. ILLINOIS FIGHTING ILLINI. Illinois has a nice shiny 8-1 record, but it's a completely empty 8-1 record. There isn't a single good win on that resume. A win over UNLV sounds good, until you realize that UNLV is a shitbox this year, and Valpo is the only other win they have that's even close to going to matter at the end of the year. They had a good chance at a quality win on the road against a somewhat frisky Georgia Tech team, but they let the Yellow Jackets finish the game on a 19-4 run so Illinois lost by three.
Despite a new coach and a whole new group of players they're still doing the traditional Illinois thing where they like to sit around and shoot jump shots. And, also a tradition at Illinois, they're not very good at having those jump shots go in. Luckily, thus far, they've been extremely good at rebounding their own misses, something that is unlikely to continue once we get into Big Ten play. They don't create turnovers at all, either, which means their only means of getting extra possessions is by those offensive boards, and, like I said earlier if you were paying attention, I doubt that keeps up against Big Ten teams.
9. PENN STATE NITTANY LIONS. I don't know what it is about my attraction to Penn State but I can't stop being infatuated. I'm like Freddie Prinze looking at Jessica Biel. No wait that one made sense. More like I'm some handsome devil like Ryan Gosling and I ended up falling in love with that lumpy chick from Girls. Penn State has all kinds of flaws and I shouldn't be attracted to their fat ass and busted teeth, but there are enough good things here that I keep overlooking those flaws and fixating on that great personality, sense of humor, and alcoholism.
Ok that was a pretty tortuous analogy, but the point is that Penn State is probably horrible but I love them anyway. A couple of really good guards including maybe the best one in the conference, a team that never turns the ball over and shoots well, a patchwork front court that fits together just well enough to be dangerous, and a horrible defense that ensures their games are going to entertaining. Then they get a sharp shooting transfer from Pitt eligible in the second semester. They haven't necessarily done anything impressive, but they do have wins over St. John's and LaSalle. I dunno, I'm rooting for them. WHAT'S WRONG WITH ME!??!?!
10. NEBRASKA CORNHUSKERS. Nebraska has actually been a pleasant surprise this year. Pleasant as in I, and many others, expected them to be completely horrible, while instead they've been somewhat competent. Wins over Miami and Georgia aren't great, but they're solid enough, and they've been competitive against good teams like Creighton, UAB, and UMass. The advanced metrics aren't great as they're the only Big 10 team outside the top 100 in both offensive and defensive efficiency (a near loss to Northern Illinois and they're 305 ranking doesn't help things), but they are looking better than they have the last couple of years.
Tai Webster, the much heralded freshman point guard from New Zealand, hasn't worked out as well as hoped yet as he struggles with his shot and turns the ball over far too frequently, but those are problems most freshman point guards deal with so there's no reason to panic. The Huskers have gotten solid play from their transfers, with Terran Petteway (Texas Tech), Deverell Biggs (Juco, reshirted last year), and Walter Pitchford (Florida) all in the team's top four in scoring and rebounding. Perhaps Nebraska is taking a page out of Iowa State's and becoming transfer U. No just kidding.
11. PURDUE BOILERMAKERS. Purdue beat Boston College 88-67 in the Big 10/ACC Challenge, and I feel confident in saying that's the first good thing they've done all year. Really. Despite being 8-2, before beating BC and following that up by beating Eastern Michigan this weekend, the Boilers wins were all over teams outside the Top 208 with four of those wins by less than double figures. One loss was fine (to Oklahoma State) but the other was pretty wretched (to Washington State).
What's gone wrong? They're just thoroughly mediocre as Matt Painter has been unable to bring in top tier talent lately. Nine of the twelve Big 10 teams could be consider elite offensively or defensively, but Purdue (along with Northwestern and Nebraska) is just blah. The Boilers are playing at a lightning quick pace, their fastest ever under Painter, perhaps due to their overall lack of size, but it's not translating to easy baskets, and they're giving up way too many easy ones on the other end. Purdue is going to miss the NCAA Tournament for the second straight year. They're really bad.
12. NORTHWESTERN WILDCATS. I cannot think of a single good thing to say about Northwestern this year other than that they probably have a really good combined IQ. They've basically been crushed by every single decent team they've played so far while sneaking wins against crap teams. This is how it's going: Northwestern is ranked #140 overall by kenpom's advanced metrics. The next worst team in the Big Ten is Nebraska all the way up at #92. There isn't a worse team in the ACC. There's just one worse in the Pac-12 and Big 12, and two worse in the Big East. They've been one of the worst teams in major conference basketball.
They're the worst team in the conference in offensive efficiency, and the second worst in defensive efficiency. I thought the return of Drew Crawford would mean this team would have an outside chance to rise to the level of competitive, and he's been fine, but the rest of the team has been crap. Dave Sobolewski has been absolute garbage, Alex Olah is putting up embarrassing rebounding numbers for a seven footer, and Tre Demps is still a terrible chucker. Chris Collins will likely find a way to make the program more competitive, and he's already got a nice recruiting class for next season coming in, but this year is the kind of year where a team with tournament aspirations needs to sweep Northwestern. Which, as you know, means the Gophers are headed to splitsville. Come on Pitino, break that curse that I just made up.
So that's where we stand with just a few short weeks to go until conference play. I see three teams with a shot at a #1 seed, two others who are almost certain to get bids, and then a small group of teams who will be around the bubble. I think the Gophers and Indiana are a step ahead of teams like Illinois and Penn State, but as usual it's going to come down to who defends home court and who can steal some games. I'm happy to say I see the Gophers right in the mix for a bid at this point, so hopefully that keeps up. Should be a pretty entertaining league this year with a lot of teams very close together in talent and skill level. Avoiding losses to the bottom three teams will be key.
1. WISCONSIN BADGERS. I told you dopes that as much as it pained me to say that Wisconsin would be really good this year, and it appears I may have actually underrated them. 10-0 right now with wins over top 100 kenpom teams St. Johns (67), Florida (13), Green Bay (87), Saint Louis (28), West Virginia (60), Virginia (19), and Marquette (45). That is freaking impressive and easily the best list of anybody in the Big Ten and maybe the nation but it's a lot of work to double check that so let's just run with it. At this point kenpom projects them to win every game the rest of the year other than @Michigan and @Iowa (they don't travel to Columbus or East Lansing), so we're looking at a possible 29-2 with a ton of good wins - a #1 seed for the Badgers?
It's the same formula they use every year - super slow pace of play, good defense, good rebounding, and efficient shooting. Frank Kaminsky is the newest big dumb slow fat white guy who has suddenly blossomed into a star under Bo Ryan and Sam Dekker has been as good as advertised. The one problem they might have is they aren't very deep with the five starters all playing 28+ minutes and no bench guys playing more than 15, and their big time reliance offensively on the three pointer. I suppose that's been their MO, so no need to worry too much. This is a really good Badger team and it sucks.
Shout out to #1 Badger fan Matty Wisconsin. Big fan, Yao Ming jersey wearer, and fastest beer chugger I've ever seen. And he's on twitter! @strykerpks. Check it. He follows @spaghettios and is a big fan of the Beer Stars.
2. OHIO STATE BUCKEYES. At 7-0 with two good wins (Maryland, Marquette) and two decent wins (Ohio, Wyoming) the Buckeyes haven't been seriously challenged (all wins by 10+) and they're doing it, no surprise, with their defense. OSU ranks #1 in total defensive efficiency, #3 in opponents effective field goal %, and #10 in turning their opponent over. Basically they will force turnovers all the time and when they don't it's really hard to make a shot against them.
Of course everyone expected Ohio State to be elite defensively, but the big question was how the Buckeyes would fare on offense with the loss of DeShaun Thomas. Everyone wondered who would step up, and although nobody has really stepped into his place is hasn't mattered because everybody has upped their game just a bit and they're doing it by committee - six players average between 9.0 and 11.4 points per game. It's weird to look at their stats because they only play nine guys - like, literally nine guys as only one other guy has played at all and only two games - and they all play 13+ minutes and all contribute.
I thought Ohio State would struggle this year on the offensive end and that would knock them down a peg, but they're doing just fine as a collective group. There may end up being some rebounding issues that could do them in, and they haven't played a truly great team (and won't until January) so there are still plenty of questions, but I'm impressed so far. Great coaching job by Thad Matta, and I probably should have seen that coming.
3. MICHIGAN STATE SPARTANS. I still think Sparty will probably end up the best team in this conference, but horrendous effort against North Carolina, particularly at home. When was the last time Michigan State was out rebounded that badly (49-38)? It helped that they shot so poorly, of course, and that's another good point because shooting just 40% from 2 is so bad you almost have to try to do that poorly, which would actually explain a lot about that game.
Obviously a loss to North Carolina doesn't wipe out all the good that the early win over Kentucky did, but they've struggled to pull away from teams all year and it's the kind of thing that could bite them in the ass come March. Letting Oklahoma, Columbia, and Portland hang around is really not great considering those are the exact type of teams that Michigan State is likely to face in the first round of the tournament. Of course, it's Tom Izzo here, so the team is likely to get better as the season goes on and I can't imagine an Izzo team ever getting bounced in the first round unless it's already happened and I don't remember and if it has don't remind me - I want to remember Izzo as I remember him, not all mixed up with facts and stuff. That's for nerds.
4. IOWA HAWKEYES. They were everybody's sleeper for this year, and they've more than lived up to that billing. Wins over Drake (#98), Xavier (#65), Notre Dame (#74), and an absolute stomping of UTEP (#90) make up a pretty good resume this early in the season, but Iowa's most impressive outing may have been their overtime loss to Villanova (#5). The Hawkeyes had a double digit lead well into the second half before Nova got white hot to go up 7 with four minute left before Iowa clawed back to tie it up.
Roy Marble looks like he's going to be one of the top players in the conference this year, Aaron White has suddenly morphed into a complete player, and transfer Jarrod Uthoff is way, way better than I ever expected. Those three have plenty of room to operate too, because the team's two point guards (Anthony Clemmons and Mike Gesell) both hate shooting and they don't really have a center. Well they have three, but they're all pretty horrible and are basically the poster children for not developing past your freshman year (seriously they may as well have been coached by Tubby). The Hawkeyes still don't shoot the ball very accurately, but they've done everything else so well this year that it's covered up that issue. Interested to see what happens down the road.
5. MICHIGAN WOLVERINES. This is probably the hardest team to evaluate. They have three losses, but all are explainable (the neutral court loss to Charlotte is a little head scratching, but it's not like they're a bad team). Because of those losses (the other two were @Duke and @Iowa State) the only good win they have is against Florida State in overtime, and the rest are against scrubs. Granted, they've taken care of business against said scrubs and their advanced metrics look good (ranked #27 overall), but there's nothing truly impressive at all in the results, so I mostly have them at #5 based on the belief that they'll come around.
I expect they will mainly because they haven't struggled the way I expected after losing Trey Burke and Tim Hardaway, in that they're taking care of the ball just fine (14th best in TO%). They're still missing out on that driving ability Burke and Hardaway had, although Nik Stauskas is doing his best to fill that role. Right now they only have three real offensive threats, and Glen Robinson seems to be regressing and I have trouble believing Caris LeVert is for real (mainly because of that terrible name). I expect Michigan to end up a Top 25 team, but I won't be shocked if they don't.
6. MINNESOTA GOPHERS. I believe I had them at seven when I did my preseason rankings, so this says I'm impressed enough to move them up a spot, which I suppose is a good thing. I still have one jillion questions about this team, and unfortunately none of them are going to be answered until conference play starts in January because the next three opponents are pretty much worthless as a measuring tool. The rebounding and interior defense will likely continue to be an issue, but Drizzy Matheiu is better than I could have hoped and the guards are going to keep them in a bunch of games and maybe even manage to sneak out and upset or two. I still don't think this is quite an NCAA Tournament team, but it's getting closer. That win over Florida State impressed me. Looking forward to Big Ten play.
7. INDIANA HOOSIERS. I get this impression that people think Indiana is good and guess what? They really aren't. What have they done besides show everyone how big a chucker supposed "point guard" Yogi Ferrell really is? Ok, sure they played a great game against UCONN that went down to the wire. Ok, I'll give you that one. But then they got crushed by Syracuse and they have nothing else on the resume. The win against Washington sounds good, but the Huskies are absolutely terrible. The win over Stony Brook is probably their best win. I actually think the Hoosiers are less likely to bomb out than Michigan, but there are plenty of questions here.
Basically with so many players suddenly thrust into new roles with everything they lost last year the team is struggling with who fits where and how to play together. Thus they're turning the ball over at an alarming rate (21.5% of possessions, ranks 310th) and just not sharing the ball well (328th in assists per field goal). It probably does help when your point guard shoots all the time, but he's also their most efficient player so what do you do? They're very talented and very deep, so a great coach like Tom Crean I'm sure will eventually get this all straightened out.
Ha ha just kidding Crean sucks and is a terrible person and I hope he burns the program to the ground.
8. ILLINOIS FIGHTING ILLINI. Illinois has a nice shiny 8-1 record, but it's a completely empty 8-1 record. There isn't a single good win on that resume. A win over UNLV sounds good, until you realize that UNLV is a shitbox this year, and Valpo is the only other win they have that's even close to going to matter at the end of the year. They had a good chance at a quality win on the road against a somewhat frisky Georgia Tech team, but they let the Yellow Jackets finish the game on a 19-4 run so Illinois lost by three.
Despite a new coach and a whole new group of players they're still doing the traditional Illinois thing where they like to sit around and shoot jump shots. And, also a tradition at Illinois, they're not very good at having those jump shots go in. Luckily, thus far, they've been extremely good at rebounding their own misses, something that is unlikely to continue once we get into Big Ten play. They don't create turnovers at all, either, which means their only means of getting extra possessions is by those offensive boards, and, like I said earlier if you were paying attention, I doubt that keeps up against Big Ten teams.
9. PENN STATE NITTANY LIONS. I don't know what it is about my attraction to Penn State but I can't stop being infatuated. I'm like Freddie Prinze looking at Jessica Biel. No wait that one made sense. More like I'm some handsome devil like Ryan Gosling and I ended up falling in love with that lumpy chick from Girls. Penn State has all kinds of flaws and I shouldn't be attracted to their fat ass and busted teeth, but there are enough good things here that I keep overlooking those flaws and fixating on that great personality, sense of humor, and alcoholism.
Ok that was a pretty tortuous analogy, but the point is that Penn State is probably horrible but I love them anyway. A couple of really good guards including maybe the best one in the conference, a team that never turns the ball over and shoots well, a patchwork front court that fits together just well enough to be dangerous, and a horrible defense that ensures their games are going to entertaining. Then they get a sharp shooting transfer from Pitt eligible in the second semester. They haven't necessarily done anything impressive, but they do have wins over St. John's and LaSalle. I dunno, I'm rooting for them. WHAT'S WRONG WITH ME!??!?!
10. NEBRASKA CORNHUSKERS. Nebraska has actually been a pleasant surprise this year. Pleasant as in I, and many others, expected them to be completely horrible, while instead they've been somewhat competent. Wins over Miami and Georgia aren't great, but they're solid enough, and they've been competitive against good teams like Creighton, UAB, and UMass. The advanced metrics aren't great as they're the only Big 10 team outside the top 100 in both offensive and defensive efficiency (a near loss to Northern Illinois and they're 305 ranking doesn't help things), but they are looking better than they have the last couple of years.
Tai Webster, the much heralded freshman point guard from New Zealand, hasn't worked out as well as hoped yet as he struggles with his shot and turns the ball over far too frequently, but those are problems most freshman point guards deal with so there's no reason to panic. The Huskers have gotten solid play from their transfers, with Terran Petteway (Texas Tech), Deverell Biggs (Juco, reshirted last year), and Walter Pitchford (Florida) all in the team's top four in scoring and rebounding. Perhaps Nebraska is taking a page out of Iowa State's and becoming transfer U. No just kidding.
11. PURDUE BOILERMAKERS. Purdue beat Boston College 88-67 in the Big 10/ACC Challenge, and I feel confident in saying that's the first good thing they've done all year. Really. Despite being 8-2, before beating BC and following that up by beating Eastern Michigan this weekend, the Boilers wins were all over teams outside the Top 208 with four of those wins by less than double figures. One loss was fine (to Oklahoma State) but the other was pretty wretched (to Washington State).
What's gone wrong? They're just thoroughly mediocre as Matt Painter has been unable to bring in top tier talent lately. Nine of the twelve Big 10 teams could be consider elite offensively or defensively, but Purdue (along with Northwestern and Nebraska) is just blah. The Boilers are playing at a lightning quick pace, their fastest ever under Painter, perhaps due to their overall lack of size, but it's not translating to easy baskets, and they're giving up way too many easy ones on the other end. Purdue is going to miss the NCAA Tournament for the second straight year. They're really bad.
12. NORTHWESTERN WILDCATS. I cannot think of a single good thing to say about Northwestern this year other than that they probably have a really good combined IQ. They've basically been crushed by every single decent team they've played so far while sneaking wins against crap teams. This is how it's going: Northwestern is ranked #140 overall by kenpom's advanced metrics. The next worst team in the Big Ten is Nebraska all the way up at #92. There isn't a worse team in the ACC. There's just one worse in the Pac-12 and Big 12, and two worse in the Big East. They've been one of the worst teams in major conference basketball.
They're the worst team in the conference in offensive efficiency, and the second worst in defensive efficiency. I thought the return of Drew Crawford would mean this team would have an outside chance to rise to the level of competitive, and he's been fine, but the rest of the team has been crap. Dave Sobolewski has been absolute garbage, Alex Olah is putting up embarrassing rebounding numbers for a seven footer, and Tre Demps is still a terrible chucker. Chris Collins will likely find a way to make the program more competitive, and he's already got a nice recruiting class for next season coming in, but this year is the kind of year where a team with tournament aspirations needs to sweep Northwestern. Which, as you know, means the Gophers are headed to splitsville. Come on Pitino, break that curse that I just made up.
So that's where we stand with just a few short weeks to go until conference play. I see three teams with a shot at a #1 seed, two others who are almost certain to get bids, and then a small group of teams who will be around the bubble. I think the Gophers and Indiana are a step ahead of teams like Illinois and Penn State, but as usual it's going to come down to who defends home court and who can steal some games. I'm happy to say I see the Gophers right in the mix for a bid at this point, so hopefully that keeps up. Should be a pretty entertaining league this year with a lot of teams very close together in talent and skill level. Avoiding losses to the bottom three teams will be key.
Thursday, October 31, 2013
Big Ten Preview
Here we are on the eve of the Gophers kicking off their exhibition season. Given that, here is a bunch of words that will serve as my official Big Ten preview. I already talked about the Big Ten like a hundred years ago, and here's a post where I kind of talk about NCAA basketball this year in general, so this will be the capper on the trilogy of posts that form my NCAA preview this year. Man, I feel like I'm writing an epic or something. Everybody knows the best things come in trilogies. I dare you to find something other than Twilight that proves this wrong. Indiana Jones tried to make a fourth something and it bombed. Trilogies are the best, ergo, I am the best. Here are my thoughts, teams in order of my predicted finish.
1. MICHIGAN STATE SPARTANS. It's almost unfair. The Spartans return Keith Appling, Gary Harris, Denzel Valentine, Branden Dawson, and Adreian Payne this year. That's at least three NBA players. For me, Michigan State is the top team in the Big Ten by a pretty wide margin, and I think they're the second best team in the entire country (behind Louisville).
If you check out kenpom.com, you'll see the Spartans finished as the ninth best team last year according to his metrics. Every team in front of them is experiencing some pretty major roster turnover from last season (with the exception of Louisville), while Sparty loses only Derrick Nix and conveniently still have Payne to just stick right in there. Plus what was Nix's main contributions? Rebounding on both ends of the floor and making high percentage shots. Well Michigan State as a team is great at rebounding and makes a high percentage of their shots, so it's not like they're losing somebody who single-handedly changed their team like DeShaun Thomas. Plus with Izzo as their coach you know they'll just get better as the year goes on. It's just not fair. Of course, Keith Appling is the kind of player who can burn down a season pretty much by himself so I guess we have that going for us. Which is nice.
2. OHIO STATE BUCKEYES. Even though the Buckeyes only lose one player from last season (unless you count Evan Ravenel as a person, which I don't) but at the same time you could argue that they lost more than any other team in the conference because DeShaun Thomas. Not only did he take a ton of his team's shots (30th most of any player in D-1 by percentage) but he was very efficient as well, leading the team in offensive rating by a pretty good amount. Now he's gone, possibly in the NBA but I couldn't be bothered to look it up, but in any case he gone.
So now Ohio State is made up of a ton of formerly highly rated recruits who have been deferring to Thomas, two new freshman (both top 65 recruits by ESPN of course, this is Ohio State after all not some shit box program), and the Wes Ellsbury Eckstein Welker Punto of college basketball Aaron Craft. Seriously, who is going to lead the team in scoring this year? Any of Craft, Lenzelle Smith, Sam Thompson, LaQuinton Ross, Shannon Scott, Amir Williams, or Kameron Williams could end up leading the team and it wouldn't be a surprise. Actually, watch Kameron Williams because he's basically the new DeShaun Thomas but shorter and skinnier. He's definitely never seen a shot he didn't like. Plus look at this guy, tell me he doesn't look like a chucker:
Doesn't he kind of look like Pauly D.? Come on, you know you see it. And Pauly D. would definitely be a chucker if he was a basketball player. I'm also going to assume J-Woww is still hot even though I haven't watched that show in like 3 years.
I can't wait to watch this guy. I love chuckers when they aren't on my team.
3. WISCONSIN BADGERS. I've written too much about Wisconsin already, which you can see if you click on the two links above, but I can't help but be really high on them this year as much as it pains me. I think their starting guards are absolutely perfect for Bo's system this year. His boring, boring system of boring opponents to death by being so boring. Then add in Sam Dekker, who brings a level of athleticism and ability the Badgers haven't had since, geez, maybe Devin Harris, and there's a whole new wrinkle to the offense. The biggest knock on the Badger offense, besides being so boring, is they get over reliant on the 3-point shot and don't penetrate the lane at times. Well Dekker can solve all that by being unguardable.
Yes, there are a million questions about the front court, but if Bo Ryan is good at anything, besides being boring and looking ugly and acting like a baby, it's getting seldom used, little regarded big white guys to suddenly be productive and efficient when needed. Plus Nigel Hayes may be in position to contribute as a freshman, and he led the team in rebounding in their exhibition against UW-Platteville. Yes, I hated writing every word of this.
4. MICHIGAN WOLVERINES. People seem to think Michigan is going to be really, really good this year and I suppose that might end up being true, but I think they're more of a good not great team. I mean, it's a pretty big deal to lose your two starting guards to the NBA, especially when they pretty much dominated the ball all the time. Going from Tre Burke to one of Spike Albrecht, Caris LeVert, or a freshman is going to be a bit startling, even if Derrick Walton is one of the top PGs incoming this year.
I know there's some good talent back but is this really a top 10 team? Nik Stauskas is just a shooter (a very good one) and Mitch McGary is a rebounder/dunker guy (a very good one). Where's the playmaker who makes this an elite team gonna come from? If Glenn Robinson makes that leap or freshman SF Zak Irvin is a game changer right away (and the PG situation works out) they could certainly end up meeting these preseason expectations, but that's too many unknown variables for me to be really confident in Michigan this year. So yeah. I'm also guessing that off all this predictions this is the one that's going to make me look really stupid at the end of the year. Possibly Penn State too. You'll see why.
5. IOWA HAWKEYES. The trendy pick for not just Big Ten sleeper but national sleeper, and why not seeing as how they basically have the same team from last year and they were very, very good the second half of the season making it all the way to the NIT Championship game. Last year Iowa was pretty good at just about everything except shooting where they were just dreadful, ranking 308th in the NCAA in 3-point percentage. That's pretty much going to decide just how good they can be, and with the same team back things don't look great, but they do everything else well enough that I think 5th is just about right.
One major problem from last year, and the reason they didn't make the NCAA tournament most likely, is their non-conference schedule was shit. It left their RPI somewhere in the 70s and it's awfully damn hard to get an at-large bid with an RPI up there (and a SoS somewhere in the mid-100s). Well, they went ahead and made the exact same screw-up. They have their typical game against Iowa State, play Notre Dame in the B10/ACC Challenge, and they play in the Battle 4 Atlantis where they could pick up some good games, so none of that sounds too bad. Their mistake lies in scheduling way too many schools that could be in the 300s for RPI and zero other teams that have even an outside shot to crack the top 100. And yes, if this sounds familiar it should because the Gophers did the same damn exact thing and I don't want to talk about it.
One semi-helpful thing with looking at the Hawkeyes is they've already played six exhibition games this season thanks to their August trip to Europe (they went 5-1 with a loss to the great Hyeres-Toulon Basket team. I found box scores for five of the games, and they shot 32% for the trip from three, which is a slight uptick from last year but at the same time they were playing exhibition games against Europeans who were probably plucked from the local YMCA if they have those in Europe. Also this Peter Jok guy? The one newcomer this year for Iowa? Holy cow what a gunner. He took 31 threes in the five games to lead the team, and was either hot (4-8 and 4-7) or really not (1-4, 1-5, 1-7). Pretty ballsy for a freshman, but he and Josh Oglesby might be the keys for Iowa as the guys most likely to provide the outside shooting they need. Either way one thing is for certain: Iowa smells like shit.
6. INDIANA HOOSIERS. Indiana, like Michigan, is another team I feel is getting a little bit too much national love based on how gutted they are to last season. They do bring in a hell of a recruiting class (four ESPN Top 100 guys) and they actually complement what they bring back, but I guess, again like Michigan, I'm just hesitant to throw my opinion behind a team with so many questions. Besides the four new guys you've got Yogi Ferrell who can't shoot, Will Sheehey who is kind of a spaz, and a bunch of guys who played very limited minutes last year.
Obviously Tom Crean's hair is recruiting it's ass off so it's probably stupid to dismiss this team with that many ESPN Top 100 guys still hanging around. Along with those new 4 and Ferrell there are two others from last year, so yeah this team is talented I guess. The good news though is they seem to be losing out on recruits all of a sudden. Top 100 guy James Blackmon Jr. had committed but backed out, and they've lost out at the last minute on Top 100s Theo Pinson, Goodluck Okonoboh, and Devin Robinson. Hopefully this means that recruits are figuring out what a huge piece of crap Tom Crean is. Because it's true. [After I wrote this part Blackmon re-committed to Indiana. I stand by my theory that Tom Crean sucks as a human.]
7. PENN STATE NITTANY LIONS. This is the team,
outside the Gophers, I'm having the hardest time ranking, and I think,
like the Gophers, it's because my emotions keep getting in the way.
See, I love guys like Tim Frazier and want them to do well. When Talor
Battle was at Penn State (and no, this is not some kind of Penn State
phenomenon) I desperately wanted him to do well and carry his team to
the NCAA tournament - which he did only to be beaten by some Temple
jerks. Obviously putting them 7th, and I think this is pretty much
their ceiling, means I don't think Frazier is going to make it, but if
he's 100% back and everything gels perfectly they could do it.
It would have helped if that jerk Jermaine Marshall wouldn't have transferred and deserted Frazier, but with him (Frazier) out all of last season with that knee injury at least that meant everybody else who is back got to gain some valuable experience scoring the ball, mostly D.J. Newbill, but overall there just isn't enough here outside of Frazier to really have faith in this team. Ross Travis is a heck of a rebounder and the Gophers could definitely use him, but hopefully they'll end up with a different Travis instead (Reid Travis announces Nov 8 with a final three of Duke, Stanford, and Minnesota - have faith).
8. MINNESOTA GOPHERS. I'm honestly a little concerned I have them too high - yes, too high - but what can I say optimism is flowing through my veins right now (and it's a really weird feeling, like that one time I woke up not hungover). But of course that optimism is tinged by reality and pessimism that I cannot escape, and I just don't think there's enough in the front court here to really be even a middle-tier Big Ten team this year.
You've got three guys who are more perimeter guys, a high jumper who is probably way too small to pull it off, and a guy who yes, lost a bunch of weight, but has dealt with knee issues so who knows what you're going to get? Eliason is the only known commodity, and I think he's just fine as a Big Ten center, but if he's in foul trouble who knows what you're going to get? Not to mention you still need to find a starting 4 man out of this group of unknowns, and I don't have a particularly good feeling about any of them. The guard play should be top notch and that alone will keep them in a lot of games, and you just know there's a night here where all the 3-pointers are dropping and they shoot like 14-24 and knock off one of the top teams, but that's not going to be reliable enough to count on night after night. I hope I'm wrong, but I see the upside here as a bubble team. Here's hoping they make it.
9. ILLINOIS FIGHTING ILLINI. Hey you know what's cool about Illinois? Besides nothing? They're another team who has already played an exhibition game this season, and since there are tons of questions about how the team's going to shake out maybe we can learn a little something from that box score. Such as how Tracy Abrams, the point guard, led the team in shot attempts. Oh what an Illinois thing. Seriously, Chester Frazier must be rolling in his grave looking at the line of shoot first point guards who have populated that back court since he graduated. Well the line is just two, but they've both been extra annoying so it seems longer.
This was going to be a rough year in Illinois either way, but losing out on Ahmad Starks (transfer from Oregon State, going for the ole "closer to home" waiver - denied) is going to hurt since he averaged 10 pts per game last season. It's always tough to figure out how a team will shake out with so many newcomers (I count 2 transfers (+Starks) and five freshmen) but I'm pretty sure most of these guys suck. Could they make some noise later in the season after they've had time to play together for a while? No.
10. NORTHWESTERN WILDCATS. This is a team that for some reason, probably because I like the dudes at Sippin' on Purple, I kept wanting to rank higher but then I slapped myself in the face and looked closer and was like gross. After being right on the verge of that elusive first ever NCAA bid for a couple years, they took a step back last season (a Drew Crawford injury will do that) and finished 13-19 (4-14 in conference) and finally fired their coach. Oh, what's that? You didn't know Northwestern has a new basketball coach well you should since he's a former Dukie which means it's all anybody can talk about.
But I don't want to talk about that even though it's kind of interesting that we should see Northwestern playing in a whole new way. I'm more interested in wondering how good their back court might be if Crawford is fully healed and all good again and stuff. The one good thing about his injury last year was it allowed Reggie Hearn to step forward and thrive, and he actually put up nearly identical numbers to what Crawford did before he got hurt. Should be a pretty dynamic back court, plus they have that little lesbian still running around running point.
11. PURDUE BOILERMAKERS. Well, Purdue has A.J. Hammons, a guy named Basil Smotherman, and a guy (Travis Carroll) whose nickname is "Tacos" because of an auto-correct mistake on a scoreboard. That's pretty much all the positives. Maybe this freshman Kendall Stephens could end up being pretty good. And I suppose they do have two guys with the last name Johnson which means they could nickname themselves Johnson & Johnson, which is catchy. Not Tacos catchy, but still catchy.
I'm not really sure what's going on here with Purdue lately. If this season goes the way I'm expecting that'll make a second straight sub-par season and a second straight year missing the NCAA Tournament after making it six straight years (2 Sweet Sixteens). Looking at this year's freshman class and who is on the hook for 2014 there isn't really much of an impact here. In fact, Painter hasn't brought in anything resembling an impact class since that crazy Moore/Johnson/Hummel/Martin quartet, and that was back in 2007. Does this mean we're witnessing the slow death of Purdue basketball? Yes.
12. NEBRASKA CORNHUSKERS. I wrote about 11 teams, took my kids trick-r-treating, and boy am I tired. Yet here is Nebraska staring me right in my stupid face. I think we all believe that at some point Tim Miles will get Nebraska turned around and at least making them competitive. This is not that year.
After finishing 5-13 last season they return just two starters and I wouldn't exactly say the "Nebraska recruiting hot bed thing" hasn't started yet so ouch. Top returner is mad bomber Ray Gallegos (no relation to Mike Gallego) who led the Big Ten with 271 three-point attempts, but made just 30.6% of them. Remember how Gallegos went 6-9 from three against the Gophers at the Barn? Yeah, that didn't happen all that often. This Shavon Shields guy might be ok and they have a bunch of transfers coming in, most notably Terran Petteway from Texas Tech (that's the opposite of exciting), Florida transfer Walter Pitchford (whose name reminds me of Kevin Pickford who was that cool guy who was gonna throw the party in Dazed and Confused so I already like him) and guard Tai Webster out of New Zealand. According to some Webster would have been a top 50 type recruit if he came up through the AAU system and is an absolute steal for Miles. So maybe Nebraska will provide some excitement this year. Beyond just when we kicked their football asses!!!! SKI U MAH!!!!!
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| Big fan of this behavior |
1. MICHIGAN STATE SPARTANS. It's almost unfair. The Spartans return Keith Appling, Gary Harris, Denzel Valentine, Branden Dawson, and Adreian Payne this year. That's at least three NBA players. For me, Michigan State is the top team in the Big Ten by a pretty wide margin, and I think they're the second best team in the entire country (behind Louisville).
If you check out kenpom.com, you'll see the Spartans finished as the ninth best team last year according to his metrics. Every team in front of them is experiencing some pretty major roster turnover from last season (with the exception of Louisville), while Sparty loses only Derrick Nix and conveniently still have Payne to just stick right in there. Plus what was Nix's main contributions? Rebounding on both ends of the floor and making high percentage shots. Well Michigan State as a team is great at rebounding and makes a high percentage of their shots, so it's not like they're losing somebody who single-handedly changed their team like DeShaun Thomas. Plus with Izzo as their coach you know they'll just get better as the year goes on. It's just not fair. Of course, Keith Appling is the kind of player who can burn down a season pretty much by himself so I guess we have that going for us. Which is nice.
2. OHIO STATE BUCKEYES. Even though the Buckeyes only lose one player from last season (unless you count Evan Ravenel as a person, which I don't) but at the same time you could argue that they lost more than any other team in the conference because DeShaun Thomas. Not only did he take a ton of his team's shots (30th most of any player in D-1 by percentage) but he was very efficient as well, leading the team in offensive rating by a pretty good amount. Now he's gone, possibly in the NBA but I couldn't be bothered to look it up, but in any case he gone.
So now Ohio State is made up of a ton of formerly highly rated recruits who have been deferring to Thomas, two new freshman (both top 65 recruits by ESPN of course, this is Ohio State after all not some shit box program), and the Wes Ellsbury Eckstein Welker Punto of college basketball Aaron Craft. Seriously, who is going to lead the team in scoring this year? Any of Craft, Lenzelle Smith, Sam Thompson, LaQuinton Ross, Shannon Scott, Amir Williams, or Kameron Williams could end up leading the team and it wouldn't be a surprise. Actually, watch Kameron Williams because he's basically the new DeShaun Thomas but shorter and skinnier. He's definitely never seen a shot he didn't like. Plus look at this guy, tell me he doesn't look like a chucker:
Doesn't he kind of look like Pauly D.? Come on, you know you see it. And Pauly D. would definitely be a chucker if he was a basketball player. I'm also going to assume J-Woww is still hot even though I haven't watched that show in like 3 years.
I can't wait to watch this guy. I love chuckers when they aren't on my team.
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| That's a beer bong coming in from the right side there. |
Yes, there are a million questions about the front court, but if Bo Ryan is good at anything, besides being boring and looking ugly and acting like a baby, it's getting seldom used, little regarded big white guys to suddenly be productive and efficient when needed. Plus Nigel Hayes may be in position to contribute as a freshman, and he led the team in rebounding in their exhibition against UW-Platteville. Yes, I hated writing every word of this.
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| This seems like a lot of teeth. |
I know there's some good talent back but is this really a top 10 team? Nik Stauskas is just a shooter (a very good one) and Mitch McGary is a rebounder/dunker guy (a very good one). Where's the playmaker who makes this an elite team gonna come from? If Glenn Robinson makes that leap or freshman SF Zak Irvin is a game changer right away (and the PG situation works out) they could certainly end up meeting these preseason expectations, but that's too many unknown variables for me to be really confident in Michigan this year. So yeah. I'm also guessing that off all this predictions this is the one that's going to make me look really stupid at the end of the year. Possibly Penn State too. You'll see why.
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| I still hate Iowa, but this is a good argument it it's favor |
One major problem from last year, and the reason they didn't make the NCAA tournament most likely, is their non-conference schedule was shit. It left their RPI somewhere in the 70s and it's awfully damn hard to get an at-large bid with an RPI up there (and a SoS somewhere in the mid-100s). Well, they went ahead and made the exact same screw-up. They have their typical game against Iowa State, play Notre Dame in the B10/ACC Challenge, and they play in the Battle 4 Atlantis where they could pick up some good games, so none of that sounds too bad. Their mistake lies in scheduling way too many schools that could be in the 300s for RPI and zero other teams that have even an outside shot to crack the top 100. And yes, if this sounds familiar it should because the Gophers did the same damn exact thing and I don't want to talk about it.
One semi-helpful thing with looking at the Hawkeyes is they've already played six exhibition games this season thanks to their August trip to Europe (they went 5-1 with a loss to the great Hyeres-Toulon Basket team. I found box scores for five of the games, and they shot 32% for the trip from three, which is a slight uptick from last year but at the same time they were playing exhibition games against Europeans who were probably plucked from the local YMCA if they have those in Europe. Also this Peter Jok guy? The one newcomer this year for Iowa? Holy cow what a gunner. He took 31 threes in the five games to lead the team, and was either hot (4-8 and 4-7) or really not (1-4, 1-5, 1-7). Pretty ballsy for a freshman, but he and Josh Oglesby might be the keys for Iowa as the guys most likely to provide the outside shooting they need. Either way one thing is for certain: Iowa smells like shit.
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| Indiana was surprisingly lacking in pictures. |
Obviously Tom Crean's hair is recruiting it's ass off so it's probably stupid to dismiss this team with that many ESPN Top 100 guys still hanging around. Along with those new 4 and Ferrell there are two others from last year, so yeah this team is talented I guess. The good news though is they seem to be losing out on recruits all of a sudden. Top 100 guy James Blackmon Jr. had committed but backed out, and they've lost out at the last minute on Top 100s Theo Pinson, Goodluck Okonoboh, and Devin Robinson. Hopefully this means that recruits are figuring out what a huge piece of crap Tom Crean is. Because it's true. [After I wrote this part Blackmon re-committed to Indiana. I stand by my theory that Tom Crean sucks as a human.]
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| I like her she seems smart. |
It would have helped if that jerk Jermaine Marshall wouldn't have transferred and deserted Frazier, but with him (Frazier) out all of last season with that knee injury at least that meant everybody else who is back got to gain some valuable experience scoring the ball, mostly D.J. Newbill, but overall there just isn't enough here outside of Frazier to really have faith in this team. Ross Travis is a heck of a rebounder and the Gophers could definitely use him, but hopefully they'll end up with a different Travis instead (Reid Travis announces Nov 8 with a final three of Duke, Stanford, and Minnesota - have faith).
8. MINNESOTA GOPHERS. I'm honestly a little concerned I have them too high - yes, too high - but what can I say optimism is flowing through my veins right now (and it's a really weird feeling, like that one time I woke up not hungover). But of course that optimism is tinged by reality and pessimism that I cannot escape, and I just don't think there's enough in the front court here to really be even a middle-tier Big Ten team this year.
You've got three guys who are more perimeter guys, a high jumper who is probably way too small to pull it off, and a guy who yes, lost a bunch of weight, but has dealt with knee issues so who knows what you're going to get? Eliason is the only known commodity, and I think he's just fine as a Big Ten center, but if he's in foul trouble who knows what you're going to get? Not to mention you still need to find a starting 4 man out of this group of unknowns, and I don't have a particularly good feeling about any of them. The guard play should be top notch and that alone will keep them in a lot of games, and you just know there's a night here where all the 3-pointers are dropping and they shoot like 14-24 and knock off one of the top teams, but that's not going to be reliable enough to count on night after night. I hope I'm wrong, but I see the upside here as a bubble team. Here's hoping they make it.
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| The pillow says Illinois. Nice microwave. |
This was going to be a rough year in Illinois either way, but losing out on Ahmad Starks (transfer from Oregon State, going for the ole "closer to home" waiver - denied) is going to hurt since he averaged 10 pts per game last season. It's always tough to figure out how a team will shake out with so many newcomers (I count 2 transfers (+Starks) and five freshmen) but I'm pretty sure most of these guys suck. Could they make some noise later in the season after they've had time to play together for a while? No.
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| The website said these were Northwestern girls. Good enough for me. |
But I don't want to talk about that even though it's kind of interesting that we should see Northwestern playing in a whole new way. I'm more interested in wondering how good their back court might be if Crawford is fully healed and all good again and stuff. The one good thing about his injury last year was it allowed Reggie Hearn to step forward and thrive, and he actually put up nearly identical numbers to what Crawford did before he got hurt. Should be a pretty dynamic back court, plus they have that little lesbian still running around running point.
11. PURDUE BOILERMAKERS. Well, Purdue has A.J. Hammons, a guy named Basil Smotherman, and a guy (Travis Carroll) whose nickname is "Tacos" because of an auto-correct mistake on a scoreboard. That's pretty much all the positives. Maybe this freshman Kendall Stephens could end up being pretty good. And I suppose they do have two guys with the last name Johnson which means they could nickname themselves Johnson & Johnson, which is catchy. Not Tacos catchy, but still catchy.
I'm not really sure what's going on here with Purdue lately. If this season goes the way I'm expecting that'll make a second straight sub-par season and a second straight year missing the NCAA Tournament after making it six straight years (2 Sweet Sixteens). Looking at this year's freshman class and who is on the hook for 2014 there isn't really much of an impact here. In fact, Painter hasn't brought in anything resembling an impact class since that crazy Moore/Johnson/Hummel/Martin quartet, and that was back in 2007. Does this mean we're witnessing the slow death of Purdue basketball? Yes.
 |
| Bottom. |
After finishing 5-13 last season they return just two starters and I wouldn't exactly say the "Nebraska recruiting hot bed thing" hasn't started yet so ouch. Top returner is mad bomber Ray Gallegos (no relation to Mike Gallego) who led the Big Ten with 271 three-point attempts, but made just 30.6% of them. Remember how Gallegos went 6-9 from three against the Gophers at the Barn? Yeah, that didn't happen all that often. This Shavon Shields guy might be ok and they have a bunch of transfers coming in, most notably Terran Petteway from Texas Tech (that's the opposite of exciting), Florida transfer Walter Pitchford (whose name reminds me of Kevin Pickford who was that cool guy who was gonna throw the party in Dazed and Confused so I already like him) and guard Tai Webster out of New Zealand. According to some Webster would have been a top 50 type recruit if he came up through the AAU system and is an absolute steal for Miles. So maybe Nebraska will provide some excitement this year. Beyond just when we kicked their football asses!!!! SKI U MAH!!!!!
Wednesday, October 23, 2013
Gophers vs. Huskers and some World Series stuff.
I know what you're thinking - DWG doesn't cover football after TRE quit like a little girl. And you're right, we generally don't and that's only because I don't know what I'm talking about - not really. The only football preview I think I've ever written here was this year's Iowa game and that's because I was feeling all #HATEWEEK-y and then I didn't even watch the game because I was at a Meat Raffle in Aitkin. But this week I stumbled into some tickets and will be taking my son to his first Gopher Football game (he's 3 so he won't remember it anyway) but since I'm going I'm also going to write some kind of a short preview because then I will at least know more players on Nebraska than just Taylor Martinez who is actually hurt according to the internet so that sucks I guess.
Despite the Martinez injury which sounds made up, the Huskers are still an eleven point favorite even on the road against your favorite team. That's because even without Martinez they've been killing teams - really bad teams (So Dak State, Illinois, and Purdue) - but even so killing is killing as Jason Voorhees always says. Mainly they've been able to kill teams because they have an awesome rushing attack and they have two back-up QBs who can both play. Looks like the Huskers generally just play both until they figure out which one sucks and then they let the other one finish out the game. And again, it doesn't really matter who is at QB because they're just going to give the ball to one of their three awesome RBs over and over again. The Huskers are like the Gophers in that they want to run the ball like, all the time, and only pass when absolutely necessary, except the Huskers are the varsity version of that while the Gophers are the junior high squad.
And.......I'm already bored with this. I hope the Gophers win but they probably won't because Nebraska is a lot better even without their QB. I think I heard Leidner has a tummy ache so that means Philip Nelson will start which is probably good because even though Leidner is like giving the ball to an alligator Nelson is better thrower guy which the Gophers will need against Nebraska. Probably. I don't know. I'm more of a David Cobb guy. Starting to look awfully shifty out there. Is he the next Gary Russell? Yes, clearly.
- Real quick, the Cardinals are looking an awful lot like the 2006 Tigers tonight. You remember 2006, a magical season when Justin Morneau won the AL MVP, and how the Tigers looked to have the World Series wrapped up before it even started. St. Louis snuck into the playoffs with just 83 wins but then outlasted everybody else to make the World Series while the Tigers won 95 games and went 7-1 against two other 93+ win teams to make it and looked poised to stomp the Cards. Then the games started (because they aren't played on paper you know, nerd) and then in the five games the Tigers made at least one error in every game and had two games with 2 or more errors, throwing the ball all over the place, giving easy runs to the Cards, and ended up losing to an inferior team by playing like idiots.
Now the Cards have already made two errors with plenty of other mistakes including a pop-up that didn't make the pitcher's mound that fell in for a "hit." It's a total repeat of 2006 except instead of a somewhat likeable team being the beneficiary of the meltdown instead this time it's Satan's team.
Even better? In 2006 I bet on Detroit. In 2013? I bet on St. Louis. Gambling is so stupid and I hate it and you and your family.
Despite the Martinez injury which sounds made up, the Huskers are still an eleven point favorite even on the road against your favorite team. That's because even without Martinez they've been killing teams - really bad teams (So Dak State, Illinois, and Purdue) - but even so killing is killing as Jason Voorhees always says. Mainly they've been able to kill teams because they have an awesome rushing attack and they have two back-up QBs who can both play. Looks like the Huskers generally just play both until they figure out which one sucks and then they let the other one finish out the game. And again, it doesn't really matter who is at QB because they're just going to give the ball to one of their three awesome RBs over and over again. The Huskers are like the Gophers in that they want to run the ball like, all the time, and only pass when absolutely necessary, except the Huskers are the varsity version of that while the Gophers are the junior high squad.
And.......I'm already bored with this. I hope the Gophers win but they probably won't because Nebraska is a lot better even without their QB. I think I heard Leidner has a tummy ache so that means Philip Nelson will start which is probably good because even though Leidner is like giving the ball to an alligator Nelson is better thrower guy which the Gophers will need against Nebraska. Probably. I don't know. I'm more of a David Cobb guy. Starting to look awfully shifty out there. Is he the next Gary Russell? Yes, clearly.
- Real quick, the Cardinals are looking an awful lot like the 2006 Tigers tonight. You remember 2006, a magical season when Justin Morneau won the AL MVP, and how the Tigers looked to have the World Series wrapped up before it even started. St. Louis snuck into the playoffs with just 83 wins but then outlasted everybody else to make the World Series while the Tigers won 95 games and went 7-1 against two other 93+ win teams to make it and looked poised to stomp the Cards. Then the games started (because they aren't played on paper you know, nerd) and then in the five games the Tigers made at least one error in every game and had two games with 2 or more errors, throwing the ball all over the place, giving easy runs to the Cards, and ended up losing to an inferior team by playing like idiots.
Now the Cards have already made two errors with plenty of other mistakes including a pop-up that didn't make the pitcher's mound that fell in for a "hit." It's a total repeat of 2006 except instead of a somewhat likeable team being the beneficiary of the meltdown instead this time it's Satan's team.
Even better? In 2006 I bet on Detroit. In 2013? I bet on St. Louis. Gambling is so stupid and I hate it and you and your family.
Wednesday, July 10, 2013
A Super Early Big Ten Hoops Preview for 2013-2014
You know what it's way too early for? College Basketball previews. You know what I'm thinking about a lot lately? College Basketball. As such, here is a way, way, way too early preview of Big Ten Hoops next year, keeping in mind that there are no "official previews" or anything out there to work off of, so a lot of the player movement is only coming from my own research and as much as I tried to stay on top of it I'm sure there are some things I missed. Sue me. If you don't like it, don't read it, ass.
1. MICHIGAN STATE SPARTANS
- LOSSES: C Derrick Nix
- ADDS: SG Alvin Ellis, C Gavin Schilling
- LINEUP:
PG - Keith Appling
SG - Gary Harris
SF - Denzel Valentine
PF - Branden Dawson,
C - Adreian Payne
- OVERVIEW: That is simply not fair. Not fair at all. Look at that returnee lineup and consider none of those guys are freshman so they bring back a ton of experience to go along with all that talent. About the only good news is they are pretty weak in terms of playing time behind the starters with only Travis Trice showing good production in quality minutes last year and the recruiting class isn't great (funny that they were both Tubby recruits and would have been considered "awesome gets") at least in so far as immediate impact goes. Still, Izzo shouldn't need much from his bench looking at how good everybody else is. An absolute National Title Contender right here.
2. OHIO STATE BUCKEYES
- LOSSES: F Deshaun Thomas, F Evan Ravenel
- ADDS: SG Kameron Williams (ESPN #68), SF Marc Loving (ESPN #62)
- LINEUP:
PG - Aaron Craft
SG - Lenzelle Smith
SF - LaQuinton Ross
PF - Sam Thompson
C - Amir Williams
- OVERVIEW: Another absolutely loaded team, they may lack the individual star power of some of the Spartans but this team is extremely deep. That lineup posted above is pretty much a guess, because they can also go smaller with Shannon Scott or one of the freshmen could slip in there - and Loving is a 6-8 small forward so they have even more flexibility. They may have some issues earlier figuring out who is going to replace the huge amount of ball usage Thomas took up the last couple years, but I'm sure with Matta still in charge they'll get it figure out quickly.
3. MICHIGAN WOLVERINES
- LOSSES: PG Trey Burke, SG Tim Hardaway
- ADDS: PG Derrick Walton (ESPN #30), SF Zak Irvin (ESPN #22), PF Mark Donnal (ESPN #89), PG Andrew Dakich
- LINEUP:
PG - Derrick Walton
SG - Nik Stauskas
SF - Zak Irvin
PF - Glenn Robinson
C - Mitch McGary
- OVERVIEW: Losing your starting backcourt, especially as talented one as Burke and Hardaway, would probably be a killer for most teams, but Michigan caught a break with both Glenn Robinson and Mitch McGary deciding to stay in school and have an awesome starting class coming in that could yield two starters in Walton and Irvin. If things don't completely work out with the freshmen Michigan has the depth to absorb some of those issues as well, but more in the front court (Robinson can play PF or SF, Jordan Morgan and Jon Horford are still around) than in the back court where Caris LeVert and Final Four almost hero Spike Albrecht are your depth. Really the biggest key to the season is Walton, but the Wolverines have enough talent to be in contention even if he struggles.
4. IOWA HAWKEYES
- LOSSES: SF Eric May (5.2ppg, 3.7rpg)
- ADDS: SF Peter Jok, transfer F Jarrod Uthoff (from Wisconsin)
- LINEUP:
PG - Mike Gesell
SG - Roy Marble
SF - Aaron White
PF - Melsahn Basabe
C - Adam Woodbury
- OVERVIEW: It kills me to think Iowa might be good this year as much as it kills you, but the ingredients are all there. Almost the entire team is returning from last year's team that finished out both the regular and postseason on a nice run, finishing second in the NIT. They are an experienced squad, but also have some nice young players who could seriously blossom, and they have two guys who are already poised to be stars. Roy Marble lit it up at the end of the year and scored 20+ in four of the Hawkeyes' five NIT games, and Aaron White not only made Team USA for the World University Games but has played pretty well. Add in the transfer of Uthoff and Iowa could even finish as high as third. Kill me.
5. INDIANA HOOSIERS
- LOSSES: C Cody Zeller, PF Christian Watford, SG Victor Oladipo, PG Jordan Hulls, SG Maurice Creek, SG Remy Abell
- ADDS: SG Evan Gordon (transfer from Ariz State), PF Noah Vonleh (ESPN #13), C Luke Fischer (ESPN #34), SF Troy Williams (ESPN #54), SF Stanford Robinson (ESPN #99), SF Devin Davis, SF Collin Hartman
- LINEUP:
PG - Yogi Ferrell
SG - Evan Gordon
SF - Will Sheehy
PF - Noah Vonleh
PF - Hanner Mosquera-Perea
- OVERVIEW: Nobody else in the conference loses anywhere near what the Hoosiers do from last season, but they've been stockpiling talent long enough (and this year's class is no exception once again) that they should end up just fine, particularly by getting a well timed, and immediately eligible thanks to the grad school loophole, transfer in Evan Gordon. Although Indiana has some good depth in the front court (Derek Elston, etc.) they were looking shaky on the perimeter (notice not a single guard in the much heralded recruiting class (though it sounds like Robinson is more SG/SF than pure SF) so Gordon's ability to handle both guard spots is going to be huge for Indiana. Because they definitely deserve more breaks. Tom Crean is an asshat.
6. WISCONSIN BADGERS
- LOSSES: PF Mike Bruesewitz, C Jared Berggren, SF Ryan Evans
- ADDS: PF Nigel Hayes (ESPN #83), PG Bronson Koenig, SG Riley Dearring, SG Jordan Hill, PF Vitto Brown
- LINEUP:
PG - Traevon Jackson
SG - Josh Gasser
SG - Ben Brust
F - Sam Dekker
PF - Frank Kaminsky
- OVERVIEW: Same as it ever was. Wisconsin loses enough from the prior year that you assume they'll struggle and they'll probably end up all good and stuff. Really though, this year it won't surprise me if they outperform my expectations (again) because Gasser/Brust/Dekker are a pretty solid little nucleus, and I think Dekker has the kind of ability to be an All-Conference player this season already. Once again, the bench looks empty and you'd think they'll struggle but whatever man, can we just stop talking about this? I hate stupid Wisconsin and I hate the way they always overperform where every stupid Minnesota sport underachieves over and over again. I'm sick of it. They don't even deserve it. They don't do anything over there. Have you ever been to Wisconsin outside of Madison or Milwaukee? It's fucking terrible, man. Just terrible. Their idea of culture is cheese curds which are admittedly delicious but still, erect a museum or something. The more time I spend over there the more I think Carl Gerbschmidt is real. If it wasn't for Minnesota's stupid no buying alcohol on Sunday thing I'd seriously start looking into one of those domes from Under the Dome to drop on that state.
7. MINNESOTA GOPHERS
- LOSSES: PF Trevor Mbakwe, PF Rodney Williams, G Joe Coleman
- ADDS: PG Dre Mathieu (JuCo), PG Daquein McNeil, SG Malik Smith (transfer from FIU), PF Joey King (transfer from Drake, probably will be eligible this year), PF Rakeem Buckles (rumored)
- LINEUP:
PG - Dre Hollins
SG - Malik Smith
SF - Austin Hollins
PF - Joey King
C - Elliot Eliason
- OVERVIEW: If you're reading this you're either hopelessly lost (just click the red X, man) or you already know plenty about the Gophers. Actually, despite being the team I know the most about this was the hardest team to peg including the starting lineup (or maybe because I know them so well). Will Charles Buggs start at the 4? Where will Dre Mathieu fit in? Mo Walker? Just so many questions right now, including who will even be on the roster come season start (King/Buckles questions). With this many questions, including a new coach with a new style and a new system, it's hard to figure where to peg this team, but the rest of the conference should be pretty weak this year (I'd put the Gophers in this tier with Penn State, Purdue, and Wisconsin) so somewhere in this neighborhood feels right, although I have to admit I can't seem them finishing any higher than here, but I can certainly see them going lower.
8. PENN STATE NITTANY LIONS
- LOSSES: F Jermaine Marshall, G Nick Colella, PF Jon Graham, PF Sasha Borovnjak, PF Patrick Ackerman
- ADDS: PG Tim Frazier (back from injury), PG Graham Woodward, PG Geno Thorpe, C Julian Moore, SF Payton Banks, SG John Johnson (transfer from Pitt), SG Allen Roberts (transfer from Miami-OH)
- LINEUP:
PG - Tim Frazier
SG - Allen Roberts
SF - D.J. Newbill
PF - Brandon Taylor
PF - Ross Travis
- OVERVIEW: It's really too bad Jermaine Marshall transferred out because otherwise Penn State might be really interesting. Frazier is one of the best players in the league, Newbill got valuable experience helping carry the offense without Frazier last year, Roberts averaged double digit points per game last year at Miami (OH), and Brandon Taylor and Ross Travis form a surprisingly effective inside duo. Even John Johnson, the transfer from Pitt, should help off the bench quite a bit once eligible in February - he shot 38% from deep while with the Panthers, which would have been tops on the Nittany Lions last year. It's a collection of intriguing parts led by a star, assuming Frazier is back at 100% this season. Talor Battle was able to drag a similarly constructed team to the NCAA Tournament in his final year at PSU - can Frazier do the same? I don't think so, but they're a lot closer than you think they are. Trust me, I'm smarter than you.
9. PURDUE BOILERMAKERS
- LOSSES: F D.J. Byrd, PF Sandi Marcius, G Anthony Johnson
- ADDS: SG Kendall Stephens (ESPN #65), SF Basil Smotherman, SG Bryson Scott, SG Sterling Carter (transfer from Seattle), PF Errick Peck (transfer from Cornell)
- LINEUP:
PG - Ronnie Johnson
SG - Terone Johnson
F - Travis Carroll
F - Donnie Hale
C - A.J. Hammons
- OVERVIEW: Purdue may have a ton of question marks, and they do, but they also have one of the biggest upside players in the conference in sophomore A.J. Hammons, who at seven feet tall and 280 pounds is already a complete monster. He averaged 11 points, 6 boards, and 2 blocks per game despite playing just 23 minutes, and as his conditioning improves and his minutes go up those numbers will continue to climb (top block % in the conference among returning players and #3 in offensive rebounding % and #6 in Def. rebounding %). Purdue's biggest problem is everybody else, and they have zero shooters to surround Hammons with (their only reliable one last year was Byrd) so he can expect plenty of double teams, although Seattle transfer Sterling Carter (39% last year) could be the guy. Where have you gone, Ryne Smith?
10. NORTHWESTERN WILDCATS
- LOSSES: G Jaren Sina (highly rated freshman this year who opted out after the coaching change), G Reggie Hearn, G Alex Marcotullio, F Jared Swopshire
- ADDS: SF Nate Taphorn
- LINEUP:
PG - Dave Sobolewski
SG - Tre Demps
SF - Drew Crawford
PF - Mike Turner
C - Alex Olah
- OVERVIEW: Drew Crawford is back for Northwestern, and that's awesome for them, but these days instead of his running mates being Michael "Juice" Thompson and John Shurna he has Dave "Lesbian" Sobolewski and Alex Olah and that's just not enough help. Chris Collins is, in my opinion, a great hire for them and it's already paying off with the Wildcats nabbing their first ESPN Top 100 recruit in history (SF Victor Law, #66 in the class of 2014), but it's going to be a long road ahead. Still, between Crawford and the outside shooting of Sobolewski and Kale Abrahamson they'll no doubt end up with a nice upset or two, especially if Collins decides to stick with their stupid passive 1-3-1 which he absolutely, positively, should not do.
11. ILLINOIS FIGHTING ILLINI
- LOSSES: SG Brandon Paul, SF D.J. Richardson, PF Tyler Griffey, PF Mike Shaw, PF Sam McLaurin, SF Devin Langford
- ADDS: PF Jon Ekey (transfer from Illinois State), SG Rayvonte Rice (transfer from Drake), G Ahmad Starks (transfer from Oregon State, may or may not be eligible next year), SG Kendrick Nunn (ESPN #61), SG Malcolm Hill (ESPN #66), PF Austin Colbert, C Maverick Morgan, PG Jaylon Tate
- LINEUP:
PG - Tracy Abrams
SG - Rayvonte Rice
SF - Joseph Bertrand
PF - Jon Ekey
C - Nnanna Egwu
- OVERVIEW: I'm always extra hard on the Illinois for some reason (probably Demetri McCamey's stupid face) but it's because the teams are always so stupidly constructed or play really really dumb. I'm sure Groce will get it figured out eventually because he's too good not two, but the whole Bruce Weber (a top 3 worst coach of all-time) dug him is going to take some time to get out of. He's going with the transfer route here which is a tried and true method to aspire to mediocrity, and that's probably where the Illini's ceiling lies this year. Simply put - I don't think Abrams is a good enough point guard to lift this team, I don't think Egwu is a quality Big 10 center, and I have a feeling Bertrand is going to go straight up chucker this year. So yeah, not optimistic.
12. NEBRASKA CORNHUSKERS
- LOSSES: C Andre Almeida, PF Brandon Ubel, SG Dylan Talley
- ADDS: PF Walter Pitchford (transfer from Florida), SF Terran Petteway (transfer from Texas Tech), PG Deverell Biggs (Juco), SF Nick Fuller, PG Tai Webster, SG Nathan Hawkins, PF Leslee Smith (Juco)
- LINEUP:
PG - Deverell Biggs (suspended indefinitely)/Benny Parker
SG - Ray Gallegos
SF - Shavon Shields
PF - David Rivers
PF - Walter Pitchford
- OVERVIEW: I have no doubt Nebraska will at least spend some time being a factor in the middle of the league at some point, it's just not going to be this year. There are some good signs as both Nick Fuller and Tai Webster are a better class of recruit than Nebraska usually gets and the transfer from Florida, Pitchford, obviously has significant upside if Billy Donovan signed him on. Overall though, the talent level just isn't there yet, especially considering the Huskers lost three starters off of last year's squad. Deverell Biggs should be a big upgrade over Benny Parker at the point, but he's suspended indefinitely after a DUI this December, and I suspect Tim Miles is smart enough to keep the missed games to a minimum. The good news for Nebraska is that Rutgers joins the Big Ten next year (2014-15) and they'll likely be a good ways ahead of the Scarlet Knights by then.
Well there you have it. Michigan State and Ohio State look to be on a whole different level than the rest of the conference, with Michigan a small step behind. There seems to be a pretty clear bottom three as well with Northwestern, Illinois, and Nebraska with everybody else jumbled in the middle. It really seems wide open to beyond #3, and I really wouldn't be surprised to see just about anybody at #4 and #5 - can you imagine Iowa and Penn State finishing 4th and 5th? It could happen. It would kind of suck for everyone because Iowa smells like poop, but it could happen. Seriously I'm already excited for next year. I'm such a dork.
1. MICHIGAN STATE SPARTANS
- LOSSES: C Derrick Nix
- ADDS: SG Alvin Ellis, C Gavin Schilling
- LINEUP:
PG - Keith Appling
SG - Gary Harris
SF - Denzel Valentine
PF - Branden Dawson,
C - Adreian Payne
- OVERVIEW: That is simply not fair. Not fair at all. Look at that returnee lineup and consider none of those guys are freshman so they bring back a ton of experience to go along with all that talent. About the only good news is they are pretty weak in terms of playing time behind the starters with only Travis Trice showing good production in quality minutes last year and the recruiting class isn't great (funny that they were both Tubby recruits and would have been considered "awesome gets") at least in so far as immediate impact goes. Still, Izzo shouldn't need much from his bench looking at how good everybody else is. An absolute National Title Contender right here.
2. OHIO STATE BUCKEYES
- LOSSES: F Deshaun Thomas, F Evan Ravenel
- ADDS: SG Kameron Williams (ESPN #68), SF Marc Loving (ESPN #62)
- LINEUP:
PG - Aaron Craft
SG - Lenzelle Smith
SF - LaQuinton Ross
PF - Sam Thompson
C - Amir Williams
- OVERVIEW: Another absolutely loaded team, they may lack the individual star power of some of the Spartans but this team is extremely deep. That lineup posted above is pretty much a guess, because they can also go smaller with Shannon Scott or one of the freshmen could slip in there - and Loving is a 6-8 small forward so they have even more flexibility. They may have some issues earlier figuring out who is going to replace the huge amount of ball usage Thomas took up the last couple years, but I'm sure with Matta still in charge they'll get it figure out quickly.
3. MICHIGAN WOLVERINES
- LOSSES: PG Trey Burke, SG Tim Hardaway
- ADDS: PG Derrick Walton (ESPN #30), SF Zak Irvin (ESPN #22), PF Mark Donnal (ESPN #89), PG Andrew Dakich
- LINEUP:
PG - Derrick Walton
SG - Nik Stauskas
SF - Zak Irvin
PF - Glenn Robinson
C - Mitch McGary
- OVERVIEW: Losing your starting backcourt, especially as talented one as Burke and Hardaway, would probably be a killer for most teams, but Michigan caught a break with both Glenn Robinson and Mitch McGary deciding to stay in school and have an awesome starting class coming in that could yield two starters in Walton and Irvin. If things don't completely work out with the freshmen Michigan has the depth to absorb some of those issues as well, but more in the front court (Robinson can play PF or SF, Jordan Morgan and Jon Horford are still around) than in the back court where Caris LeVert and Final Four almost hero Spike Albrecht are your depth. Really the biggest key to the season is Walton, but the Wolverines have enough talent to be in contention even if he struggles.
4. IOWA HAWKEYES
- LOSSES: SF Eric May (5.2ppg, 3.7rpg)
- ADDS: SF Peter Jok, transfer F Jarrod Uthoff (from Wisconsin)
- LINEUP:
PG - Mike Gesell
SG - Roy Marble
SF - Aaron White
PF - Melsahn Basabe
C - Adam Woodbury
- OVERVIEW: It kills me to think Iowa might be good this year as much as it kills you, but the ingredients are all there. Almost the entire team is returning from last year's team that finished out both the regular and postseason on a nice run, finishing second in the NIT. They are an experienced squad, but also have some nice young players who could seriously blossom, and they have two guys who are already poised to be stars. Roy Marble lit it up at the end of the year and scored 20+ in four of the Hawkeyes' five NIT games, and Aaron White not only made Team USA for the World University Games but has played pretty well. Add in the transfer of Uthoff and Iowa could even finish as high as third. Kill me.
5. INDIANA HOOSIERS
- LOSSES: C Cody Zeller, PF Christian Watford, SG Victor Oladipo, PG Jordan Hulls, SG Maurice Creek, SG Remy Abell
- ADDS: SG Evan Gordon (transfer from Ariz State), PF Noah Vonleh (ESPN #13), C Luke Fischer (ESPN #34), SF Troy Williams (ESPN #54), SF Stanford Robinson (ESPN #99), SF Devin Davis, SF Collin Hartman
- LINEUP:
PG - Yogi Ferrell
SG - Evan Gordon
SF - Will Sheehy
PF - Noah Vonleh
PF - Hanner Mosquera-Perea
- OVERVIEW: Nobody else in the conference loses anywhere near what the Hoosiers do from last season, but they've been stockpiling talent long enough (and this year's class is no exception once again) that they should end up just fine, particularly by getting a well timed, and immediately eligible thanks to the grad school loophole, transfer in Evan Gordon. Although Indiana has some good depth in the front court (Derek Elston, etc.) they were looking shaky on the perimeter (notice not a single guard in the much heralded recruiting class (though it sounds like Robinson is more SG/SF than pure SF) so Gordon's ability to handle both guard spots is going to be huge for Indiana. Because they definitely deserve more breaks. Tom Crean is an asshat.
6. WISCONSIN BADGERS
- LOSSES: PF Mike Bruesewitz, C Jared Berggren, SF Ryan Evans
- ADDS: PF Nigel Hayes (ESPN #83), PG Bronson Koenig, SG Riley Dearring, SG Jordan Hill, PF Vitto Brown
- LINEUP:
PG - Traevon Jackson
SG - Josh Gasser
SG - Ben Brust
F - Sam Dekker
PF - Frank Kaminsky
- OVERVIEW: Same as it ever was. Wisconsin loses enough from the prior year that you assume they'll struggle and they'll probably end up all good and stuff. Really though, this year it won't surprise me if they outperform my expectations (again) because Gasser/Brust/Dekker are a pretty solid little nucleus, and I think Dekker has the kind of ability to be an All-Conference player this season already. Once again, the bench looks empty and you'd think they'll struggle but whatever man, can we just stop talking about this? I hate stupid Wisconsin and I hate the way they always overperform where every stupid Minnesota sport underachieves over and over again. I'm sick of it. They don't even deserve it. They don't do anything over there. Have you ever been to Wisconsin outside of Madison or Milwaukee? It's fucking terrible, man. Just terrible. Their idea of culture is cheese curds which are admittedly delicious but still, erect a museum or something. The more time I spend over there the more I think Carl Gerbschmidt is real. If it wasn't for Minnesota's stupid no buying alcohol on Sunday thing I'd seriously start looking into one of those domes from Under the Dome to drop on that state.
7. MINNESOTA GOPHERS
- LOSSES: PF Trevor Mbakwe, PF Rodney Williams, G Joe Coleman
- ADDS: PG Dre Mathieu (JuCo), PG Daquein McNeil, SG Malik Smith (transfer from FIU), PF Joey King (transfer from Drake, probably will be eligible this year), PF Rakeem Buckles (rumored)
- LINEUP:
PG - Dre Hollins
SG - Malik Smith
SF - Austin Hollins
PF - Joey King
C - Elliot Eliason
- OVERVIEW: If you're reading this you're either hopelessly lost (just click the red X, man) or you already know plenty about the Gophers. Actually, despite being the team I know the most about this was the hardest team to peg including the starting lineup (or maybe because I know them so well). Will Charles Buggs start at the 4? Where will Dre Mathieu fit in? Mo Walker? Just so many questions right now, including who will even be on the roster come season start (King/Buckles questions). With this many questions, including a new coach with a new style and a new system, it's hard to figure where to peg this team, but the rest of the conference should be pretty weak this year (I'd put the Gophers in this tier with Penn State, Purdue, and Wisconsin) so somewhere in this neighborhood feels right, although I have to admit I can't seem them finishing any higher than here, but I can certainly see them going lower.
8. PENN STATE NITTANY LIONS
- LOSSES: F Jermaine Marshall, G Nick Colella, PF Jon Graham, PF Sasha Borovnjak, PF Patrick Ackerman
- ADDS: PG Tim Frazier (back from injury), PG Graham Woodward, PG Geno Thorpe, C Julian Moore, SF Payton Banks, SG John Johnson (transfer from Pitt), SG Allen Roberts (transfer from Miami-OH)
- LINEUP:
PG - Tim Frazier
SG - Allen Roberts
SF - D.J. Newbill
PF - Brandon Taylor
PF - Ross Travis
- OVERVIEW: It's really too bad Jermaine Marshall transferred out because otherwise Penn State might be really interesting. Frazier is one of the best players in the league, Newbill got valuable experience helping carry the offense without Frazier last year, Roberts averaged double digit points per game last year at Miami (OH), and Brandon Taylor and Ross Travis form a surprisingly effective inside duo. Even John Johnson, the transfer from Pitt, should help off the bench quite a bit once eligible in February - he shot 38% from deep while with the Panthers, which would have been tops on the Nittany Lions last year. It's a collection of intriguing parts led by a star, assuming Frazier is back at 100% this season. Talor Battle was able to drag a similarly constructed team to the NCAA Tournament in his final year at PSU - can Frazier do the same? I don't think so, but they're a lot closer than you think they are. Trust me, I'm smarter than you.
9. PURDUE BOILERMAKERS
- LOSSES: F D.J. Byrd, PF Sandi Marcius, G Anthony Johnson
- ADDS: SG Kendall Stephens (ESPN #65), SF Basil Smotherman, SG Bryson Scott, SG Sterling Carter (transfer from Seattle), PF Errick Peck (transfer from Cornell)
- LINEUP:
PG - Ronnie Johnson
SG - Terone Johnson
F - Travis Carroll
F - Donnie Hale
C - A.J. Hammons
- OVERVIEW: Purdue may have a ton of question marks, and they do, but they also have one of the biggest upside players in the conference in sophomore A.J. Hammons, who at seven feet tall and 280 pounds is already a complete monster. He averaged 11 points, 6 boards, and 2 blocks per game despite playing just 23 minutes, and as his conditioning improves and his minutes go up those numbers will continue to climb (top block % in the conference among returning players and #3 in offensive rebounding % and #6 in Def. rebounding %). Purdue's biggest problem is everybody else, and they have zero shooters to surround Hammons with (their only reliable one last year was Byrd) so he can expect plenty of double teams, although Seattle transfer Sterling Carter (39% last year) could be the guy. Where have you gone, Ryne Smith?
10. NORTHWESTERN WILDCATS
- LOSSES: G Jaren Sina (highly rated freshman this year who opted out after the coaching change), G Reggie Hearn, G Alex Marcotullio, F Jared Swopshire
- ADDS: SF Nate Taphorn
- LINEUP:
PG - Dave Sobolewski
SG - Tre Demps
SF - Drew Crawford
PF - Mike Turner
C - Alex Olah
- OVERVIEW: Drew Crawford is back for Northwestern, and that's awesome for them, but these days instead of his running mates being Michael "Juice" Thompson and John Shurna he has Dave "Lesbian" Sobolewski and Alex Olah and that's just not enough help. Chris Collins is, in my opinion, a great hire for them and it's already paying off with the Wildcats nabbing their first ESPN Top 100 recruit in history (SF Victor Law, #66 in the class of 2014), but it's going to be a long road ahead. Still, between Crawford and the outside shooting of Sobolewski and Kale Abrahamson they'll no doubt end up with a nice upset or two, especially if Collins decides to stick with their stupid passive 1-3-1 which he absolutely, positively, should not do.
11. ILLINOIS FIGHTING ILLINI
- LOSSES: SG Brandon Paul, SF D.J. Richardson, PF Tyler Griffey, PF Mike Shaw, PF Sam McLaurin, SF Devin Langford
- ADDS: PF Jon Ekey (transfer from Illinois State), SG Rayvonte Rice (transfer from Drake), G Ahmad Starks (transfer from Oregon State, may or may not be eligible next year), SG Kendrick Nunn (ESPN #61), SG Malcolm Hill (ESPN #66), PF Austin Colbert, C Maverick Morgan, PG Jaylon Tate
- LINEUP:
PG - Tracy Abrams
SG - Rayvonte Rice
SF - Joseph Bertrand
PF - Jon Ekey
C - Nnanna Egwu
- OVERVIEW: I'm always extra hard on the Illinois for some reason (probably Demetri McCamey's stupid face) but it's because the teams are always so stupidly constructed or play really really dumb. I'm sure Groce will get it figured out eventually because he's too good not two, but the whole Bruce Weber (a top 3 worst coach of all-time) dug him is going to take some time to get out of. He's going with the transfer route here which is a tried and true method to aspire to mediocrity, and that's probably where the Illini's ceiling lies this year. Simply put - I don't think Abrams is a good enough point guard to lift this team, I don't think Egwu is a quality Big 10 center, and I have a feeling Bertrand is going to go straight up chucker this year. So yeah, not optimistic.
12. NEBRASKA CORNHUSKERS
- LOSSES: C Andre Almeida, PF Brandon Ubel, SG Dylan Talley
- ADDS: PF Walter Pitchford (transfer from Florida), SF Terran Petteway (transfer from Texas Tech), PG Deverell Biggs (Juco), SF Nick Fuller, PG Tai Webster, SG Nathan Hawkins, PF Leslee Smith (Juco)
- LINEUP:
PG - Deverell Biggs (suspended indefinitely)/Benny Parker
SG - Ray Gallegos
SF - Shavon Shields
PF - David Rivers
PF - Walter Pitchford
- OVERVIEW: I have no doubt Nebraska will at least spend some time being a factor in the middle of the league at some point, it's just not going to be this year. There are some good signs as both Nick Fuller and Tai Webster are a better class of recruit than Nebraska usually gets and the transfer from Florida, Pitchford, obviously has significant upside if Billy Donovan signed him on. Overall though, the talent level just isn't there yet, especially considering the Huskers lost three starters off of last year's squad. Deverell Biggs should be a big upgrade over Benny Parker at the point, but he's suspended indefinitely after a DUI this December, and I suspect Tim Miles is smart enough to keep the missed games to a minimum. The good news for Nebraska is that Rutgers joins the Big Ten next year (2014-15) and they'll likely be a good ways ahead of the Scarlet Knights by then.
Well there you have it. Michigan State and Ohio State look to be on a whole different level than the rest of the conference, with Michigan a small step behind. There seems to be a pretty clear bottom three as well with Northwestern, Illinois, and Nebraska with everybody else jumbled in the middle. It really seems wide open to beyond #3, and I really wouldn't be surprised to see just about anybody at #4 and #5 - can you imagine Iowa and Penn State finishing 4th and 5th? It could happen. It would kind of suck for everyone because Iowa smells like poop, but it could happen. Seriously I'm already excited for next year. I'm such a dork.
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