It's Football Time!

It's that time of the year again.  The time where oversized humanoid types put on ineffective padding and run into each other over and over again at full speed - Yes, football.  Although I generally deal with more elegant sports like baseball and basketball here, I do like to dip my tow into the football waters once in a while because hey, more clicks and also because I really like predicting things since I'm almost always right.  So why not a quick look at the Vikings and the NFL, and then a preview of this weekend's Gopher football game since I'll be in attendance.  I'm not sure who they're playing but I'll look that up later.

So the Vikings.  The state's favorite squadron.  What are the betting expectations for the Vikings this NFL season? (look for the best odds from Sportbet.com).  Sportbet has the over/under for wins at 6.5, and if I'm a betting man, and I am, I'm going for the over (cautiously).  Matt Cassell is boring, and far more boring than my guy Teddy Bridgewater, but he is a competent QB which is a major upgrade from your guy Christian Ponder.  Cordarrelle Patterson is supposed to do that thing everyone says and become good, and don't forget Greg Jennings didn't just forget how to be a major league receiver, it's just Ponder did things like throw the ball into the ground and throw the ball into the ground again.  Cassell tends to do things more like throwing the ball in the air.  That's a plus.  And of course if Bridgewater ever gets to start the Vikings will start putting up 50+ points per game, but that's a given.

A lot of people seem to be excited about an upgraded defense, which makes sense, since the team is going from a defensive minded coach to a defensive minded coach and somehow this new one is better than the old one I guess.  I don't know.  Personally, I'm more excited about the personnel changes.  I mean, these guys have some sweet names:  Captain Munnerlyn is one of the best names in the league, and Linval Joseph isn't that far behind except that he's slower now after getting shot.  Really though those guys are upgrades, Anthony Barr has looked good this preseason, Harrison Smith is healthy, and Sharrif Floyd should be better because he can't be worse.  Plus Xavier Rhodes is awesome.

What's realistic for the Vikings?  If Cassell starts all year they'll be somewhere around 8-8.  If Bridgewater starts they'll win every game he plays, up to 15-2 and a Super Bowl victory.

Other quick NFL hits:

• The Panthers will be terrible
• The Cardinals will be the surprise breakout team, led by Michael Floyd and Andre Ellington
• Dallas will be a complete dumpster fire, but they'll give up so many points that Dez Bryant will have a career year and one of the best receiving years in history
• Atlanta will be a playoff team with a bounce back year from Matt Ryan
• The Eagles will regress badly
• The Packers will be annoyingly good and probably make the Super Bowl
• The Colts will win the Super Bowl
• Cleveland will win 3 games or less
• Derek Carr will win Rookie of the Year
• C.J. Spiller will re-breakout.
• Matthew Stafford will have even more weapons, put up even better stats, and still somehow screw the Lions into a 6-win season
• Ryan Tannehill will become a top 10 type QB

All of this will come true.

Now onto the college game, which is also fun!  And the internet tells me our beloved Gopher footballers are going up against the Middle Tennessee State Blue Raiders.  Whoa that sounds scary!  And they're 1-0!  And they won 61-7 last week!  Are the Gophers doomed?  Is their run to the BCS playoffs over before it really even starts?  No.  MTSU beat Savannah State who once had something like a 60-game losing streak in basketball so they're probably terrible in football too.  Let's look at these "Blue" "Raiders" a little more carefully, but keep in mind I'm only looking at stats like some kind of nerd who lives in his mom's basement because I have to admit I have never seen MTSU play football.  Nor have I heard of anyone on their team.  Seriously if you want a "real" "preview" I'd check out Still Got Hope, who are back and cranking out some seriously awesome Gopher football love (they're the kind of nerds who go watch practice, so you know it's detailed info).  

Last season the Blue Raiders went 8-4 including 6-2 in the Sun Belt, probably, and made the Armed Forces Bowl where they lost to Navy 24-6.  They played two real teams and lost to North Carolina by 20 and BYU by 27.  So far the intimidation level is low to quite low.  Which I suppose it should since the Gophers are favored by 16.  

Last year they ranked 83rd in passing offense, 31st in rushing offense, and 62nd in total offense.  That's some good running, boys, but a bad passing attack may be worse as their QB has moved on to do something else.  They do have both of their top RBs and one of their top WRs back, but not having a thrower guy back and replacing him with a guy who completed 45% of his passes last year is not a positive.  This new guy, Austin Grammer (Kelsey's son), did play well against Savannah completing 15 of 17 for 250 yards, but I assume those DBs were basically played by folding chairs so whatevs.  The running backs are worth looking at since the two returnees (Jordan Parker and Reggie Whatley) both had over 650 yards last season and they added a new guy, Tony Rowland, who split carries with those two in their first game.  Rowland and Whatley are both tiny (5-7) so they're both probably really fast, and Parker is built like a real running back so he's probably good and stuff.  I'd keep my eye on those guys.

Defensively they ranked 26th in passing yards allowed and 107th in rushing yards allowed, which is good for Minnesota because they hate passing anyway and would rather have one of their 20 running backs or their QB who is built like a grizzly bear and throws with similar accuracy to run down your face and smash into you over and over again.  Maybe their biggest strength last season was turnover margin, where they finished 12th in the country at a +12.  Their two safeties picked off 8 passes between the two of them last year and they're both back, so probably still not a good idea to throw the ball.  

Basically both teams suck at passing and are good at running.  Whoever stops the other team from running the ball well will win and that should probably be the Gophers.  Plus all this running and stuff probably means the under 52.5 is kind of money.  So let's do this.  Just as the Gopher basketball crushed the hopes and dreams of the Middle Tennessee basketball team in the NIT two years ago, so now will these Gophers crush MTSU's dream of a National Championship. 

Gophers 28, Blue Raiders 10.  

Gophers vs. Huskers and some World Series stuff.

I know what you're thinking - DWG doesn't cover football after TRE quit like a little girl.  And you're right, we generally don't and that's only because I don't know what I'm talking about - not really.  The only football preview I think I've ever written here was this year's Iowa game and that's because I was feeling all #HATEWEEK-y and then I didn't even watch the game because I was at a Meat Raffle in Aitkin.  But this week I stumbled into some tickets and will be taking my son to his first Gopher Football game (he's 3 so he won't remember it anyway) but since I'm going I'm also going to write some kind of a short preview because then I will at least know more players on Nebraska than just Taylor Martinez who is actually hurt according to the internet so that sucks I guess.

Despite the Martinez injury which sounds made up, the Huskers are still an eleven point favorite even on the road against your favorite team.  That's because even without Martinez they've been killing teams - really bad teams (So Dak State, Illinois, and Purdue) - but even so killing is killing as Jason Voorhees always says.  Mainly they've been able to kill teams because they have an awesome rushing attack and they have two back-up QBs who can both play.  Looks like the Huskers generally just play both until they figure out which one sucks and then they let the other one finish out the game.  And again, it doesn't really matter who is at QB because they're just going to give the ball to one of their three awesome RBs over and over again.  The Huskers are like the Gophers in that they want to run the ball like, all the time, and only pass when absolutely necessary, except the Huskers are the varsity version of that while the Gophers are the junior high squad.

And.......I'm already bored with this.  I hope the Gophers win but they probably won't because Nebraska is a lot better even without their QB.   I think I heard Leidner has a tummy ache so that means Philip Nelson will start which is probably good because even though Leidner is like giving the ball to an alligator Nelson is better thrower guy which the Gophers will need against Nebraska.  Probably.  I don't know.  I'm more of a David Cobb guy.  Starting to look awfully shifty out there.  Is he the next Gary Russell?  Yes, clearly.

-  Real quick, the Cardinals are looking an awful lot like the 2006 Tigers tonight.  You remember 2006, a magical season when Justin Morneau won the AL MVP, and how the Tigers looked to have the World Series wrapped up before it even started.  St. Louis snuck into the playoffs with just 83 wins but then outlasted everybody else to make the World Series while the Tigers won 95 games and went 7-1 against two other 93+ win teams to make it and looked poised to stomp the Cards.  Then the games started (because they aren't played on paper you know, nerd) and then in the five games the Tigers made at least one error in every game and had two games with 2 or more errors, throwing the ball all over the place, giving easy runs to the Cards, and ended up losing to an inferior team by playing like idiots.

Now the Cards have already made two errors with plenty of other mistakes including a pop-up that didn't make the pitcher's mound that fell in for a "hit."  It's a total repeat of 2006 except instead of a somewhat likeable team being the beneficiary of the meltdown instead this time it's Satan's team.

Even better?  In 2006 I bet on Detroit.  In 2013?  I bet on St. Louis.  Gambling is so stupid and I hate it and you and your family.

Let's Talk Football

If you follow a little too closely on Twitter, you're aware that our football guy, TRE, has left DWG to pursue other opportunities.  This means that we have no football guy.  However, this being HATE WEEK with the HATED Iowa Hate-eyes coming to town means I really need to put something down about the game.  I don't follow college football per se, but I do watch most Gopher games and plenty of other games because I'm an avid follower of College Football Spreads and a big fan of gambling.  As such, I'm going to try to write something about Saturday's game.  Please be gentle.

The hated jerks from Iowa come to TCF as about a one point favorite, which means this could be a hell of an entertaining game as long as the Gophers win.  Those dudes are 3-1 which is great because the Gophers are 4-0 which means Minnesota is clearly the better team.  Their loss was to Northern Illinois who I thought was supposed to be pretty good because they have that quarterback who I've heard of, but they almost lost to Eastern Illinois who I don't think is a FBS team which means Iowa must be really shitty.  Plus I found some power rankings that had Iowa at #72 and Minnesota at #41, so, you know, CHAMPIONSHIP!

One other important thing when evaluating competition is to look at how the team has played, not just the results.  Since I have not seen one minute of Iowa football against a non-Gopher team in the last, say, 5-6 years, I'm going to solely have to rely on stats, which seems pretty dumb but I have no other options plus as they say in math "Numbers Never Lie."

The first thing that pops out at me is that Iowa can play some defense, ranking 19th in the country in yards allowed per game.  Of course they played Western Michigan and Missouri State as two of their opponents and those teams are terrible, but you know what they say about how those who live in glass houses shouldn't throw shoes.  The worst part is they're mostly good at defending the running game (12th) and not as good at defending the pass (46th) but that doesn't matter since the Gophers don't throw the ball nor should they.

Offensively Iowa is pretty terrible which plays into the Gophers' hands because their defense completely sucks.  They are god awful at throwing the football, and despite their QB (Jake Rudock) clearly being more of a runner guy than a thrower guy they still like to sling that pill like he was Mox.  I'm guessing it's mostly little slants and screens though because I don't really think Kirk Ferentz (he's still the coach, right?) is an idiot, just a jackass.  When they do throw it's probably going to Kevonte Martin-Manley (terrible name) who has 20 catches and nobody else has more than 7 thanks to "One Read" Rudock.  Their tight end only has seven catches which is weird because Iowa really seems like a team who would use their tight end a lot.

Iowa main running jerk is Mark Weisman who if I remember correctly is white so he's probably not very fast.  He averages 4.9 yards per carry which sounds kind of fancy but this is college and all the Gopher running guys are laughing at him, including both QBs.  There other two running backs are Damon Bullock (too tall at 6-1) and Jordan Canzeri who is only 5-9 so he's probably really fast and brittle.  They are terrible.

As for the Gophers they don't throw the ball unless they have to which is a pretty good strategy I think because I'm not certain they even have any wide receivers.  Sticking to running it with David Cobb and Rodrick Williams, both perfectly proportioned to be running backs, and Mitch Leidner who I'm betting will grow up to be a lumberjack or an alligator wrestler or something seems like a solid plan of attack.  Unfotunately, like I mentioned before up there, Iowa is pretty decent at stopping the run probably because they're all so fat and ugly.  This means at some point Leidner is going to have to throw the ball in the air.  Will this be successful?  NO ONE CAN SAY!  Leidner has never had to throw the ball as far as I recollect because he usually is too busy running people over and stomping on their heads.

Basically what's going to happen is Iowa's shitty offense is going to clash with the Gophers swiss cheese defense and Iowa will probably score about 21 points.  Simple enough, right?  The Gophers just have to score more, and to score more they'll need to hit on a few passing plays.  The difference in the game will be if they can do it, and I'd guess they probably can since they have Mitch Mother Fucking Leidner.

No guarantees, so I'm only going to make one prediction:  there are going to be a lot of people running into each other and falling down.


Also if you ask Wonderbaby^TM what Iowa is like she will answer "it smells like poop."  From the mouths of babes.  Also it really does smell like poop. And poor people.

Gopher Football: RB Preview

Pop Quiz:  Who was the last 1,000 yard rusher for your Golden Gophers?

Answer: In 2006 Amir Pinnix ran for 1,272 yards.  2006 was the last of 8 consecutive seasons with a runner getting at least 1,000 yards under Glen Mason.  Some quick "where-are-they-now-according-to-googling" shows that Pinnix now works as a commodity trader for Cargill in his home town of Raleigh.  So he's putting that business marketing degree to good work.

What followed of course was that Glen was let go and left the recruiting cupboard pretty bare.  Then Brewster showed up, took a shit in the cupboard, and set it on fire.

2013 has the potential to see a return to those 1,000 yard rushing days.  In 2012, Donnell Kirkwood ran for 926 yards and 6 touchdowns.  Now a red-shirt junior, Kirkwood is a 5'10" 223lb bowling ball that does damage between the tackles.  He averaged 4.25 yards per carry last season and is more of a grinder than a big play guy.  Here's his longest run of 2012:

Kirkwood has the right attitude about the upcoming season, "Everybody keeps talking about this is a 1,000-yard season," Kirkwood said. "As long as I'm a productive running back, it really doesn't matter how many yards I get." (source)  He seems like a humble, hard-working guy and that makes him fun to cheer for.  Follow him on twitter @Tonka_Toy20 

CBSSports.com believes Kirkwood could draw some NFL interest due to his style of play: "Thick, powerful, between-the-tackles runner who led the team in rushing as a sophomore with 926 yards and six rushing touchdowns on 218 carries. Possesses some natural explosiveness and good vision, and could draw attention from NFL teams looking for a one-cut, zone-scheme runner to add to their backfield."

Kirkwood apparently got those powerful legs in part because of Donnell Sr's welding skills. In this Joe Christensen article we learn that Donnell Sr. built a sled out of steel for his son to drag around. 

Donnell isn't the only power back on the roster though.  As a freshman last year, Rodrick Williams ran for 261 yards and 2 touchdowns.  His 4.6 yards per carry was better than Kirkwood's and I think that he has a little more flash to his game.  At 5'11", 235 lbs he has a similar build to the starter.  Nugget's biggest game was probably the Meineke Car Care Bowl game against Texas Tech where he ran for 60 yards and a TD on 12 carries.  Williams was pressed into service rather than red-shirting last season.  This was due to other players, namely James Gillum not being able to carry the load that was originally expected.

Oh, and if you don't already know, he's nicknamed Nugget because he apparently ate 50 chicken nuggets in a sitting when he visited the school.  Which is pretty awesome.

With two bruisers the Gophers are in need of some speed in the backfield.  Last season, we saw David Cobb, Devon Wright and even wide-receiver KJ Maye attempt to fill that change of pace rolem, but all were largely ineffective.  This year, we might very well see a lot of true freshman Berkley Edwards in that role.  Edwards is a diminutive 5'9" and 190 lbs, but has exceptional acceleration and speed.  Coming from Novi, Michigan Edwards was a 3-star recruit and a top 70 running back in the nation.  His older brother, Braylon Edwards said it was a big mistake that Michigan didn't recruit 

I don't understand how my brother has the 8th fastes time in the country in the 60m, ran for 1800 yards last year and 20 and UofM wontcall
— Braylon Edwards (@OfficialBraylon) March 7, 2012

Additional depth will be provided by James Gillum (Sr), David Cobb (Jr), Cole Banham (RSJr) and JoJuan Harper (RSSo).  Although I believe Harper is not on the 105 man roster.

Of course, a big part of the Limegrover offense is a running quarterback.  Between Gray (390) and Nelson (184) there was nearly 600 rushing yards (you add it) to be had from the QB position. I expect we'll approach that number again with Nelson and Mitch Leidner scampering about.  

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