Hey the Preseason Top 25 polls just came out. You know what that means, time to write about how bad all these teams suck. I'm taking a look at the AP poll instead of the Coaches poll because I chose it at random. Spoiler alert: The Gophers aren't in here.
1. NORTH CAROLINA. They only lose J.P. Tokoto who entered the NBA Draft for some reason but that's fine because I think he mostly made people mad at his shooting. Marcus Paige is back and he's really good when he's not being terrible. They had zero outside shooting other than him last year, and unless one of the freshman can shoot (one supposedly can) or somebody else learned how to hit a 3-pointer in the offseason this is not the best team in basketball. Also I just read Paige is out for 3-4 weeks with an injury so maybe that will lead to somebody else being good. SPOILER: nope.
2. KENTUCKY. Hell I don't know.
3. MARYLAND. It's hard to wrap my head around Maryland being this high, but I can't argue with it. They were a 4 seed in the tournament last year and even though they didn't make it out of the weekend they were still a solid team. Melo Trimble came back and might be the best player in the conference, they added two big time transfers, and got a late commitment from Diamond Stone who is supposed to be awesome despite the ridiculous name and fills their only real hole. Still, three seems really freaking high.
4. KANSAS. Want to hear something that will blow your mind? Perry Ellis is back for another year. Even so, these guys are my pick for title winner. Ellis sucks but he's not completely useless, and even if he is Kansas has everybody back (except Kelly Oubre who was meh anyway) and they're adding two McDonald's All Americans who are both forwards. This team is deep as all hell, all they need is someone to make the leap. With so many above average players in both ability and pedigree you'd think somebody's going to do it, and if two or more do these guys will be really, really good. Bet on them. Do it. Go do it. They're like 10-1. Do it.
5. DUKE. Uh, you guys know they lost Tyus, Okafor, and Justice Winslow, right? This is all because Grayson Allen, who makes J.J. Redick look downright lovable, had that good stretch in the National Championship game, isn't it? Does he really seem like the kind of player who can carry a team for a while season. NOT BLOODY LIKELY. Good luck with him and one million freshmen. Oh, right, they got a transfer from Rice coming in too. Yes, Rice. The college. If you read any preview of Duke this year they call out a transfer from Rice as a huge positive. I am currently making a dismissive wanking motion.
6. VIRGINIA. Hoops nerds like to tell you that if you think Virginia basketball is boring, you don't really understand basketball. Well I understand basketball and I know what the pack line defense is and all that and I'm telling you - Virginia basketball is freaking boring as all hell. And basically the whole team is back again to be boring and annoying and get handjobs from announcers. Ugh. Stop already.
7. IOWA STATE. If you asked me to guess where Iowa State was rated I would have said like I don't know, maybe mid-20s or something so this is a bit of a surprise. But I guess Georges Niang is back which seems impossible and possibly illegal, and, you're not going to believe this, but the Cyclones get a couple of big deal transfers from other programs. Add that to almost the whole team being back and I guess I see why they're this high. They should be really fun and pretty good until one of their players gets suspended.
8. OKLAHOMA. The opposite of Virginia, these guys are fun as hell to watch and since Buddy Hield, who is basically a lock to lead the Big 12 in scoring, is back they probably will be again. They also ranked 8th in defensive points per possession, so it is actually possible to play fast, fun, and good defense all at the same time. Take notes, Cavaliers. Also, this is way too high for these guys.
9. GONZAGA. Lots of people say stuff like man Gonzaga is overrated, they stomp the WCC, get all this Final Four type buzz, and then flame out. Last year they finally made the Elite 8, which is definitely an accomplishment, but also just the second time they've gotten that far, the last coming in 1999. So I don't know that they've proved that they're anything more than a small conference bully. They've got a rock solid front court, but lose their entire back court so things could be rough early. This section was extremely boring.
10. WICHITA STATE. They have Ron Baker and Fred VanVleet back. That right there is enough to win the Missouri Valley. No really, you take those two and Greg Marshall and you could roll out of their with three toddlers and the Shockers would roll. Unfortunately it is both unsafe and illegal to play with toddlers so Wichita State will use real players to complement those two. I don't really feel like looking up who any of those players are, but since Wichita has been good for so long at this point I'm guessing they're probably pretty good.
11. VILLANOVA. God that sucked when these guys got bounced last year, and not just because they were my non-Kentucky pick to win. They were so freaking good. Then a dopey NC State team knocks them off. I suppose I shouldn't be surprised, that's kind of Villanova's thing. Also their thing: guards. And they have a bunch of them again. So expect the Wildcats to shoot a ton of three pointers, own the Big East, grab a high seed, and flame out early. It's what they do. Lesson learned.
12. ARIZONA. Stanley Johnson, T.J. McConnell, Rondae Hollis-Jefferson, and Brandon Ashley are all gone. That is a lot of people to be gone. However Arizona is Arizona, and it must be nice to be Arizona, because they get a star transfer from Boston College and picked up one hell of a recruiting class, including stealing Allonzo Trier from the Gophers. Also, they still have Kaleb Tarczewski and he is awesome and looks like he would fight you. And you would die.
13. MICHIGAN STATE. Another team with a couple of big losses which catches a break with a big time transfer, ready to step right in. For Sparty it's Eron Harris who only scored over 17 points per game in his last season at West Virginia, no big whoop. I'm really fascinated by Lourawls Nairn (remember him?) here. He only took 8.5% of the team's shots when he was on the floor. The lowest Gopher with any real minutes played was Bakary Konate at 11.1%, which is actually way higher than Nairn. I only found two other Big Ten players under 10% last year (Jaylon Tate of Illinois and Jeremiah Kreisberg of Northwestern) but both played far fewer minutes than Nairn. So like, is that his thing? What does he do if nobody guards him? He's the anti-chucker, which in a way, is as fun as a real chucker. I love watching how teams guard Rajon Rondo - they don't. I hope that's what happens with Nairn.
14. CAL. This team could be like whoa. I bet them at 60-1 to win the whole thing this summer, and I still like them now down all the way at 20-1. They have a ton back from last year's team, not a great year, admittedly, and add two Top 10 recruits. Yes, that's TWO top 10 recruits. If the name on the jersey was Duke instead of Cal this would be a Top 5 team. Plus, I like Cuonzo Martin as a coach. This is my favorite sleeper this year.
15. INDIANA. Oh come on! Do we not play defense any more in basketball, because if this is offense only I would say the Hoosiers are too low, but overall? No chance. It's the same team. The only difference is they got some stud recruit center, but can one player suddenly take a swiss cheese defense and make it good? Or even passable? No. Maybe Antoine Broxsie back in the day, but nobody can make Yogi Ferrell look good on defense. Should score a lot of points though. Gopher/Hoosier games should be in the 160s.
16. UTAH. I know they have at least one, and maybe two, big giant tall guys, and that's generally a good start when it comes to basketsball. Ok I decided to check and they only have one, but he's really good you guys! His name is Jakob Poetl and he's a possible lottery pick who held Jahlil Okafor to 6 points and 4 turnovers in March. He can score, rebound, and block shots and now that Delon Wright is gone he should be the offenses focal point. Should be fun. No idea about all these other guys.
17. WISCONSIN. Oh come on! You're kidding me. Look, I love Nigel Hayes, I love him as much as I could ever love a Badger. I think he's most likely a more skilled Noah Vonleh and I loved Noah Vonleh and thanked Jehova every day that Tom Crean was such a terrible coach. But the Badgers are basically Hayes, Bronson Koenig who is whatever fine, and then nobody else. I know people say it's stupid to bet against the Badgers and Bo Ryan, but people like blood sausage too. People are morons. Badgers suck this year.
18. VANDERBILT. Here's another team I like, although I can also see them sucking. On paper it looks good - a potential lottery pick at center (Damian Jones) surrounded by shooters (Riley Lachance (remember him) and Wade Baldwin (him too) among others, and a team that really gelled as the season went on with most of the team back. Vandy started out 1-7 in SEC play, but closed out 8-2 and looked really good, so yeah, on paper this looks good. In reality, it's Vanderbilt so ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
19. NOTRE DAME. Jerian Grant is gone, which is a fairly huge deal considering the game plan was generally "hey Jerian, go do everything for us." The back-up for that was, hey Pat Connaughton, you go do stuff instead but oops, he gone. Zach Auguste is a super stud, I'll give you that, and he's probably going to be better than Noah Vonleh, but somebody has to get him the ball. In summation, these guys suck.
20. UCONN. They have Amida Brimah who I love because he blocks like, every shot ever taken, and their transfer train is rolling, picking up Sterling Gibbs (who is kind of a dick) from Seton Hall to go with Rodney Purvis whom they stole from NC State last year or maybe the year before. Actually looking at this roster I've heard of like, everybody which seems goodish. How the hell is Omar Calhoun still in college basketball? That's insane. Also, I probably watch too much basketball.
21. LSU. One of my favorite sleepers this year. Tons of guard play back and they're bringing in the #1 recruit in the country and another big deal new guy too who just got eligible. As far as negatives go, I have a short list of what I call "dumb teams to never ever bet on" who are always dumb and do stupid stuff and lose when they shouldn't because they are dumb every year no matter what. LSU is on that list.
22. BAYLOR. Baylor still? I figured they'd drop off the face of the map with recruiting violations or something by now, but here we are. The front court has a monster in Rico Gathers who is basically a bigger Montrezl Harrell (yes bigger) without the jump shot, but their entire back court is gone. Oh what's that? A really young back court coached by Scott Drew? I smell some early season anti-Baylor wagers.
23. PURDUE. Another team I like, mainly because facing them is like going against a bunch of gigantic monsters from a Goosebumps book. A.J. Hammons is seven feet tall, 261 lbs., Isaac Haas is 7-2, 297 lbs., and incoming freshman Caleb Swanigan is 6-9, 260 lbs.. It would be pretty sweet if they figured out a way to play all three at the same time. I mean, it wouldn't make a lick of sense, but it would be pretty sweet. Anyway, Purdue plays pretty good defense, and it's probably going to be even better next season. They also can't shoot at all. So there are going to be some ugly, ugly games.
24. BUTLER. I tried to write about Butler like 4 times. That's probably enough.
25. MICHIGAN. Michigan loses nobody from last year's team, and that's good even though last year's team missed the tournament. That was more because Caris LeVert and Derrick Walton played only 37 combined games than Michigan being an actually crappy team, because I am learning John Beilein is a wizard who doesn't make crappy teams. They're still basically lacking any kind of skilled or capable big man and Zak Irvin is kind of wild out there, but this should be a pretty good team. Probably better than this ranking. Man, if Purdue could trade one of their big dudes for a shooter from Michigan, that would be pretty sweet. College sports needs trading, would be so awesome. Not like they care about the kids anyway, which is ok because neither do I. PLAY GAMES FOR MY AMUSEMENT!!!
Showing posts with label Kansas. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Kansas. Show all posts
Thursday, November 5, 2015
Wednesday, March 13, 2013
And we're Spent
I was going to write about everything that happened today, but I write the previews and stuff first and then go back and write the introduction and I'm really quite tired and I don't think that's something that I'm going to do.
ATLANTIC COAST CONFERENCEI still have fond memories of watching the ACC Tournament every March (on TV of course). Those were the days of Randolph Childress and Dennis Scott and Curtis Staples when every ACC team, top-to-bottom, was awesome and the conference was head and shoulders above everyone else. They're still a quality conference (kenpom ranks them 4th) but that's because they're strong at the top. The bottom of the ACC is horrible, which makes the tournament much less fun since you can probably pencil in the top seeds to the semi-finals. Except Duke. Eff them.
FAVORITE: Duke. Of course it's Duke. With Ryan Kelly back Duke is one of the top five teams in the country no matter how much you hate them (and you should). It's easy to forget, but this team is 18-0 this year when Kelly is healthy (and 9-4 without him) with wins over Ohio State, Louisville, and Miami - all Final Four contenders. Kelly kind of sucks at everything other than shooting but there's no doubt Duke is a much better team with him than without him. Also did you know every single Duke basketball fan also roots for the Lakers, Cowboys, Yankees, and Notre Dame football? It's science.
SLEEPER: Virginia. The Cavaliers probably need to do something here to secure at at-large bid, because despite their huge wins (Duke, NC State, Wisconsin) they've balanced them with some horrendous losses (George Mason, Delaware, and 5-25 Old Dominion) and an 11-7 conference record. They're a bit of a Wisconsin clone with their style of play (BORING) but it can work, obviously, and they've beaten every other ACC Contender so far this year other than Miami, so they can certainly win this.
W's PICK: Duke. This is what Duke does. They have a great regular season, win the ACC Tournament, and then lose in one of the first two rounds of the NCAA Tournament. And I love it every year.
ATLANTIC 10 CONFERENCE
Honestly I couldn't even tell you who is in the A-10 anymore. And even if I could, it wouldn't matter because teams are leaving next year anyway. And did you know there are actually 16 teams in the Atlantic-10? So the Big 10 has 12 and is about to have 14, the Big 12 has 10 teams, and the Atlantic 10 has 16. Gotta say, I think the whole idea of naming your conference after the number of teams is looking like a pretty crappy idea. Hell at this point we can't even name them on their geographical region any more. We're going to have to start naming conferences after things pretty soon, like the Lamp Conference.
FAVORITE: St. Louis. The Billikens are streaking. They won 12 of their last 13 (with the loss being in overtime @ Xavier) with those wins including a win over VCU and a sweep of Butler, but even so they're sneaking up on everybody. You watch, they're going to be anywhere from a 3-6 seed when the pairings come out and I'm betting nearly everybody will have them getting knock-off the first weekend. They're a great defensive basketball team who spreads their scoring around with five guys averaging between 9.8 and 12.9 points per game- don't underrate them.
SLEEPER: Xavier. A rare down year for the Musketeers sees them tied for sixth in the A-10 with seven conference losses, but in a pretty wide open conference there are plenty of teams who could get hot and win the auto-bid. Not only did Xavier just beat St. Louis in the second-to-last game of the season, they also beat Memphis a couple of weeks ago.
W's PICK: VCU. I can't help it, I love VCU. They play the game like a bunch of crazy lunatics and, in the tradition of the old UNLV and Arkansas teams, it works. They're a bit under the radar nationally this year since they have seven losses, but those seven are Duke and Missouri in the Bahamas, @ Richmond, LaSalle, @ St. Louis, and @ Temple. That's a pretty good list. It serves to give them a worse seeding, which will make them a genius pick to make the Final Four, although with all their recent success I'm sure plenty of others will feel the same so maybe the real genius pick will be to take them to lose in round one.
BIG WEST CONFERENCE
Big West teams always seem to grab a nice upset or two each year. This year Cal Poly beat UCLA, Pacific beat Xavier and St. Mary's, and UC-Irvine beat USC. The Big West lacks the big-time sleeper NCAA Tournament threat like they had the last couple of years with Santa Barbara and Long Beach, but there are a number of teams here who could get a victory if they get the right match-up.
FAVORITE: Long Beach. Say what you want about Dan Monson, and I have, but he knows how to build a program to dominate a terrible conference. The 49ers are once again the #1 seed in the Big West, and even though they aren't as dangerous a team as they were last season they'll probably win this tournament. Although things may be unraveling at the end of the season here a bit with LBSU losing three of their last four games.
SLEEPER: UC-Irvine. The Anteaters were horrendous at the beginning of the year, starting out at 5-7 with ugly losses to Pepperdine and Sam Houston, but buttoned it up to close out the season, finishing out with a 10-5 swing which included wins over Long Beach, Pacific, and Cal-Poly - the top three Big West teams. Plus they're the Anteaters - that's pretty sweet.
W's PICK: Irvine. There's nobody here who looks like they could run away with this thing, and with the Anteaters coming into the tournament as the hottest team I may as well pick them. Plus they're Anteaters.
BIG SKY CONFERENCE
The Big Sky has always been one of my favorite conferences, mainly because my wife and her entire family attended school there (for at least a semester) and I've been on their campus a bunch of times and have some hats and shirts and such and since they're the dominant program they're always relevant, at least for a low-major. And this is a low major, at least this year. Weber (24-5) and Montana (23-6) took care of business, but there isn't a single other school in the conference that finished better than .500.
FAVORITE: Weber State. Technically Montana is actually the #1 seed but they lost their leading scorer to a foot injury and although they've gone 4-1 without him (the loss was in overtime to Davidson) Weber State is probably the better team now. The Wildcats have won eleven straight, including a 14-point victory over Montana and really they haven't missed Damian Lillard much at all this season thanks to three double-digit per game scorers and the nation's #1 three-point shooting team at 42%.
SLEEPER: Montana State. Weber and Montana are much better than the rest of the field here, but if anybody is going to crash the party it will probably be Montana State. While the majority of the conference was just getting beat up by the two top teams, the Bobcats were able to hang tough, actually beating Weber State at home and losing by just 8 on the road, and although they were swept by Montana the Grizzlies only beat them by 3 and 5 (in overtime).
W's PICK: Weber State. It feels like the Wildcats have dominated this conference, but they actually haven't been to the NCAAs since 2007 since they can't get over the hump and actually win the conference tournament. This year should be different, and hopefully Harold Arceneaux's ghost will come back and bring them to a first round upset. Also, for your education, it's pronounced WEE-BER. Don't you feel like a dummy?
BIG 12 CONFERENCE[NOTE: This apparently started Wednesday night. I had no idea]
The Big 12 is actually shockingly deep this year. With only ten teams they have six ranked in the Top 50 according to kenpom, which is awfully damn good for a conference I thought was pretty crappy. Of course, the teams in the top 50 include Baylor, who sucks, and Oklahoma, who sucks, so maybe the ratings aren't exactly accurate. Besides, games are played by real players on the court, not in your mom's basement using a computer, nerd.
FAVORITE: Kansas. The Jayhawks won the Big 12 for the ninth straight year and are the favorite once again, but unlike previous years they aren't a prohibitive favorite as the B12 is pretty wide open this year at the top. Kansas had losses to Oklahoma, Baylor, and Oklahoma State this year, should have had two losses to Iowa State, and lost to the worst team in the conference TCU. They have one of the best guards in the country in Ben McLemore, one of the best centers in the country in Jeff Withey, and very little else. KU is very vulnerable, and that goes for the NCAA Tournament as well.
SLEEPER: Iowa State. The Cyclones finished with the 5 seed and will probably be in the NCAAs as a 10 or 11, but it really should have been so much better. They lost to Kansas once on a banked in KU three-pointer and once thanks to the worst call of the season (which even B12 officials said it was a blown call), and both at Texas and Oklahoma State on last second plays. The shoot a ton of threes, make a ton of threes, and play at a fast pace - a really fun team to watch.
W's PICK: Oklahoma State. The Cowboys have gone ahead and transformed themselves into a dark horse Final Four contender. They've won 11 of their last 13, the two losses were @ Iowa State (can't fight Hilton Magic) and a double-OT loss to Kansas, and included in those eleven wins were victories over Oklahoma, Kansas, Kansas State, Baylor, and Iowa State. All you really need to know is that OK State's third best player is LeBryan Nash and he'd probably be the best player on 90% of NCAA teams (when he's engaged and paying attention, sort of has a disappearing thing going on).
BIG TEN CONFERENCE
Well here's the biggie, and I mean that not only because the stupid Gophers are in it, but because in reality I think it's hard to argue against this as the best conference in basketball. I mentioned the Big 12 having a bunch of well rated teams at kenpom, but the Big Ten has nine of their twelve ranked in the top 62 and nobody worse than #146. Add in that outside of Northwestern anybody can beat anybody else on any given day and this could really be wild. The Gophers and Michigan are fading, while Iowa and Purdue are rising which bunches the teams together even further. There are 8 teams who wouldn't shock me if they won this.
FAVORITE: Indiana. It's interesting to me that Indiana started as the big favorite in the conference, we spent the entire conference season wondering who was really number one and trying to figure out how good Indiana actually was, and now that we're done the Hoosiers come out as looking like pretty clearly the best team in the Big 10, don't they? I don't know, for my money they're clearly the top team in the conference.
SLEEPER: Illinois. If I wasn't a Minnesota fan I'd say the Gophers since they still have a really impressive list of good wins and have played well on neutral courts, but since I am a Gopher fan I know how freaking awful they've been so I refuse to support them in any way. I also think Illinois really sucks, but Iowa sucks worse, and everybody else is either too good to be a sleeper or too crappy to have a prayer. Illinois shoots so many stupid three-pointers they could conceivably get hot enough to win a couple of games, even if they don't have a chance of winning this thing. The Gophers, on the other hand, actually do have a chance to win the B10 Tournament, but I refuse to care enough to care. That's not a typo.
W's PICK: Michigan. Maybe this goes back to the old Steve Fisher days, but Michigan always strikes me as a damn good tournament type team. The Fab Five never flamed out early and made two Final Fours when they were all together, they won the first ever Big Ten Tournament, and other than last year I can't remember them ever losing early in the NCAAs. By the way, now that I look it up to try to avoid looking like an idiot, it turns out the reason I don't remember them flaming out early is because Michigan didn't make a single NCAA Tournament between 1998 and 2009. For serious. That is ridiculous.
Sorry if you were looking for more Gopher specific stuff, but I don't know what to write anymore. They're good enough to beat anybody in the Big Ten and bad enough to lose to anybody in the Big Ten. Illinois chucks a shitload of threes, and if they're making them the Gophers are screwed. If not, the Gophers have to execute their half court offense to win. Does any of that sound manageable? I just don't even know anymore. Here are my last thoughts on the Gophers. This is all I got, bro. At least until I see how they play against Illinois.
ATLANTIC COAST CONFERENCEI still have fond memories of watching the ACC Tournament every March (on TV of course). Those were the days of Randolph Childress and Dennis Scott and Curtis Staples when every ACC team, top-to-bottom, was awesome and the conference was head and shoulders above everyone else. They're still a quality conference (kenpom ranks them 4th) but that's because they're strong at the top. The bottom of the ACC is horrible, which makes the tournament much less fun since you can probably pencil in the top seeds to the semi-finals. Except Duke. Eff them.
FAVORITE: Duke. Of course it's Duke. With Ryan Kelly back Duke is one of the top five teams in the country no matter how much you hate them (and you should). It's easy to forget, but this team is 18-0 this year when Kelly is healthy (and 9-4 without him) with wins over Ohio State, Louisville, and Miami - all Final Four contenders. Kelly kind of sucks at everything other than shooting but there's no doubt Duke is a much better team with him than without him. Also did you know every single Duke basketball fan also roots for the Lakers, Cowboys, Yankees, and Notre Dame football? It's science.
SLEEPER: Virginia. The Cavaliers probably need to do something here to secure at at-large bid, because despite their huge wins (Duke, NC State, Wisconsin) they've balanced them with some horrendous losses (George Mason, Delaware, and 5-25 Old Dominion) and an 11-7 conference record. They're a bit of a Wisconsin clone with their style of play (BORING) but it can work, obviously, and they've beaten every other ACC Contender so far this year other than Miami, so they can certainly win this.
W's PICK: Duke. This is what Duke does. They have a great regular season, win the ACC Tournament, and then lose in one of the first two rounds of the NCAA Tournament. And I love it every year.
ATLANTIC 10 CONFERENCE
Honestly I couldn't even tell you who is in the A-10 anymore. And even if I could, it wouldn't matter because teams are leaving next year anyway. And did you know there are actually 16 teams in the Atlantic-10? So the Big 10 has 12 and is about to have 14, the Big 12 has 10 teams, and the Atlantic 10 has 16. Gotta say, I think the whole idea of naming your conference after the number of teams is looking like a pretty crappy idea. Hell at this point we can't even name them on their geographical region any more. We're going to have to start naming conferences after things pretty soon, like the Lamp Conference.
FAVORITE: St. Louis. The Billikens are streaking. They won 12 of their last 13 (with the loss being in overtime @ Xavier) with those wins including a win over VCU and a sweep of Butler, but even so they're sneaking up on everybody. You watch, they're going to be anywhere from a 3-6 seed when the pairings come out and I'm betting nearly everybody will have them getting knock-off the first weekend. They're a great defensive basketball team who spreads their scoring around with five guys averaging between 9.8 and 12.9 points per game- don't underrate them.
SLEEPER: Xavier. A rare down year for the Musketeers sees them tied for sixth in the A-10 with seven conference losses, but in a pretty wide open conference there are plenty of teams who could get hot and win the auto-bid. Not only did Xavier just beat St. Louis in the second-to-last game of the season, they also beat Memphis a couple of weeks ago.
W's PICK: VCU. I can't help it, I love VCU. They play the game like a bunch of crazy lunatics and, in the tradition of the old UNLV and Arkansas teams, it works. They're a bit under the radar nationally this year since they have seven losses, but those seven are Duke and Missouri in the Bahamas, @ Richmond, LaSalle, @ St. Louis, and @ Temple. That's a pretty good list. It serves to give them a worse seeding, which will make them a genius pick to make the Final Four, although with all their recent success I'm sure plenty of others will feel the same so maybe the real genius pick will be to take them to lose in round one.
BIG WEST CONFERENCE
Big West teams always seem to grab a nice upset or two each year. This year Cal Poly beat UCLA, Pacific beat Xavier and St. Mary's, and UC-Irvine beat USC. The Big West lacks the big-time sleeper NCAA Tournament threat like they had the last couple of years with Santa Barbara and Long Beach, but there are a number of teams here who could get a victory if they get the right match-up.
FAVORITE: Long Beach. Say what you want about Dan Monson, and I have, but he knows how to build a program to dominate a terrible conference. The 49ers are once again the #1 seed in the Big West, and even though they aren't as dangerous a team as they were last season they'll probably win this tournament. Although things may be unraveling at the end of the season here a bit with LBSU losing three of their last four games.
SLEEPER: UC-Irvine. The Anteaters were horrendous at the beginning of the year, starting out at 5-7 with ugly losses to Pepperdine and Sam Houston, but buttoned it up to close out the season, finishing out with a 10-5 swing which included wins over Long Beach, Pacific, and Cal-Poly - the top three Big West teams. Plus they're the Anteaters - that's pretty sweet.
W's PICK: Irvine. There's nobody here who looks like they could run away with this thing, and with the Anteaters coming into the tournament as the hottest team I may as well pick them. Plus they're Anteaters.
BIG SKY CONFERENCE
The Big Sky has always been one of my favorite conferences, mainly because my wife and her entire family attended school there (for at least a semester) and I've been on their campus a bunch of times and have some hats and shirts and such and since they're the dominant program they're always relevant, at least for a low-major. And this is a low major, at least this year. Weber (24-5) and Montana (23-6) took care of business, but there isn't a single other school in the conference that finished better than .500.
FAVORITE: Weber State. Technically Montana is actually the #1 seed but they lost their leading scorer to a foot injury and although they've gone 4-1 without him (the loss was in overtime to Davidson) Weber State is probably the better team now. The Wildcats have won eleven straight, including a 14-point victory over Montana and really they haven't missed Damian Lillard much at all this season thanks to three double-digit per game scorers and the nation's #1 three-point shooting team at 42%.
SLEEPER: Montana State. Weber and Montana are much better than the rest of the field here, but if anybody is going to crash the party it will probably be Montana State. While the majority of the conference was just getting beat up by the two top teams, the Bobcats were able to hang tough, actually beating Weber State at home and losing by just 8 on the road, and although they were swept by Montana the Grizzlies only beat them by 3 and 5 (in overtime).
W's PICK: Weber State. It feels like the Wildcats have dominated this conference, but they actually haven't been to the NCAAs since 2007 since they can't get over the hump and actually win the conference tournament. This year should be different, and hopefully Harold Arceneaux's ghost will come back and bring them to a first round upset. Also, for your education, it's pronounced WEE-BER. Don't you feel like a dummy?
BIG 12 CONFERENCE[NOTE: This apparently started Wednesday night. I had no idea]
The Big 12 is actually shockingly deep this year. With only ten teams they have six ranked in the Top 50 according to kenpom, which is awfully damn good for a conference I thought was pretty crappy. Of course, the teams in the top 50 include Baylor, who sucks, and Oklahoma, who sucks, so maybe the ratings aren't exactly accurate. Besides, games are played by real players on the court, not in your mom's basement using a computer, nerd.
FAVORITE: Kansas. The Jayhawks won the Big 12 for the ninth straight year and are the favorite once again, but unlike previous years they aren't a prohibitive favorite as the B12 is pretty wide open this year at the top. Kansas had losses to Oklahoma, Baylor, and Oklahoma State this year, should have had two losses to Iowa State, and lost to the worst team in the conference TCU. They have one of the best guards in the country in Ben McLemore, one of the best centers in the country in Jeff Withey, and very little else. KU is very vulnerable, and that goes for the NCAA Tournament as well.
SLEEPER: Iowa State. The Cyclones finished with the 5 seed and will probably be in the NCAAs as a 10 or 11, but it really should have been so much better. They lost to Kansas once on a banked in KU three-pointer and once thanks to the worst call of the season (which even B12 officials said it was a blown call), and both at Texas and Oklahoma State on last second plays. The shoot a ton of threes, make a ton of threes, and play at a fast pace - a really fun team to watch.
W's PICK: Oklahoma State. The Cowboys have gone ahead and transformed themselves into a dark horse Final Four contender. They've won 11 of their last 13, the two losses were @ Iowa State (can't fight Hilton Magic) and a double-OT loss to Kansas, and included in those eleven wins were victories over Oklahoma, Kansas, Kansas State, Baylor, and Iowa State. All you really need to know is that OK State's third best player is LeBryan Nash and he'd probably be the best player on 90% of NCAA teams (when he's engaged and paying attention, sort of has a disappearing thing going on).
BIG TEN CONFERENCE
Well here's the biggie, and I mean that not only because the stupid Gophers are in it, but because in reality I think it's hard to argue against this as the best conference in basketball. I mentioned the Big 12 having a bunch of well rated teams at kenpom, but the Big Ten has nine of their twelve ranked in the top 62 and nobody worse than #146. Add in that outside of Northwestern anybody can beat anybody else on any given day and this could really be wild. The Gophers and Michigan are fading, while Iowa and Purdue are rising which bunches the teams together even further. There are 8 teams who wouldn't shock me if they won this.
FAVORITE: Indiana. It's interesting to me that Indiana started as the big favorite in the conference, we spent the entire conference season wondering who was really number one and trying to figure out how good Indiana actually was, and now that we're done the Hoosiers come out as looking like pretty clearly the best team in the Big 10, don't they? I don't know, for my money they're clearly the top team in the conference.
SLEEPER: Illinois. If I wasn't a Minnesota fan I'd say the Gophers since they still have a really impressive list of good wins and have played well on neutral courts, but since I am a Gopher fan I know how freaking awful they've been so I refuse to support them in any way. I also think Illinois really sucks, but Iowa sucks worse, and everybody else is either too good to be a sleeper or too crappy to have a prayer. Illinois shoots so many stupid three-pointers they could conceivably get hot enough to win a couple of games, even if they don't have a chance of winning this thing. The Gophers, on the other hand, actually do have a chance to win the B10 Tournament, but I refuse to care enough to care. That's not a typo.
W's PICK: Michigan. Maybe this goes back to the old Steve Fisher days, but Michigan always strikes me as a damn good tournament type team. The Fab Five never flamed out early and made two Final Fours when they were all together, they won the first ever Big Ten Tournament, and other than last year I can't remember them ever losing early in the NCAAs. By the way, now that I look it up to try to avoid looking like an idiot, it turns out the reason I don't remember them flaming out early is because Michigan didn't make a single NCAA Tournament between 1998 and 2009. For serious. That is ridiculous.
Sorry if you were looking for more Gopher specific stuff, but I don't know what to write anymore. They're good enough to beat anybody in the Big Ten and bad enough to lose to anybody in the Big Ten. Illinois chucks a shitload of threes, and if they're making them the Gophers are screwed. If not, the Gophers have to execute their half court offense to win. Does any of that sound manageable? I just don't even know anymore. Here are my last thoughts on the Gophers. This is all I got, bro. At least until I see how they play against Illinois.
Tuesday, November 13, 2012
What did we Learn from the Marathon?
Unfortunately I couldn't make it to the Gophers latest butt whooping of Toledo but that doesn't stop me from having a couple of quick thoughts on the team and yes it feels a bit weird to have concerns about a team that's 2-0 with wins by 36 and 26 but here we are. I have 3.
1. I want to know what's going on with Trevor Mbakwe. His line looked better in this Toledo game (6 pts - 7 boards - 2 blks) but he still only played 14 minutes which is the same number of minutes he played in the game against American. Is he still hurt? Is this some sort of punishment? I'd really like to know.
2. Nineteen turnovers against Toledo? Gross. Loyola-Illinois, who is terrible, turned it over just 15 times against Toledo.
3. Is Andre Hollins ok? Maybe all the expectations are getting to him and he's pressing a bit (2-15 shooting so far, 4 TOs vs. 1 assist vs. Toledo) or maybe he's got something else going on in his head that's hurting his concentration (the shooting, plus five missed free throws already this year vs. just nine all of last season).
It's early and the team is winning, but all three of these need to get figured out before they start playing real games or they're going to be in trouble. This Thursday's game against Tennessee State is a losable game, so they may as well start playing better ASAP. The defense and rebounding have been absolutely outstanding, however, and that's a very good sign even against this level of competition. Small sample size and all, but kenpom rates the Gophers as the 8th best defensive team in the country statistically (includes rebounding) and that does take quality of competition into account (for example, American shot 24% against the Gophers and 53% in their next game against Quinnipiac - that bodes well for the Gophers).
Also, in case you were unaware somehow, ESPN just did a 24-hour college basketball marathon. Thanks to a flexible work environment that allows working from home and the miracle of internet access I was able to take in a decent amount of it. Here's what I thought was worth noting.
1. I watched the first half of Youngstown/Georgia (not part of the marathon) and figured Georgia's first half performance (3-24 shooting) would be the ugliest thing I saw all week, but I was wrong because West Virginia looked absolutely god awful in getting destroyed by Gonzaga. The Bulldogs also looked pretty good and definitely had something to do with it, but WVU just got destroyed on every level. Gonzaga had open shot after open shot (52% Shooting, 56% from 3) while WVU just threw up bricks (shot 27%, 11% from 3) and I saw at least two times in the first half where a Mountaineer 3-point attempt hit the backboard before it hit the rim. I'm sure WVU will end up being not this terrible since they're relying on three transfers to pretty much carry the team this year and that always seems to take a while to gel, but that was one of the ugliest performances I can remember watching from a team that was supposed to at least be in the mix for an at-large bid since every Gopher game ever.
2. Kendall Williams (New Mexico) is a stud PG. I didn't stay up late enough to watch this one after WVU put me to sleep, but Williams put up a line of 17 pts - 6 rebs - 7 assists - 0 turnovers. Nice.
3. The Gophers could have used Siyani Chambers. The freshman point guard from Hopkins ended up at Harvard because that was basically the only school that recruited him and oh my did he look good against UMass, nearly leading the Crimson to a big upset playing all 40 minutes and finishing with 14 pts, 5 rebs, and 7 assists to just 1 turnover and even more impressive than the stats was just watching him. He completely controlled the game when Harvard had the ball (his defense, on the other hand, was pretty atrocious). It got to the point where UMass won the game by doing everything possible to keep the ball out of his hands when they ran their press and then the Harvard dopes turned it over twice in the final minute leading to a pretty surprising comeback win for the Minutemen when it looked like this game was in the bag for Harvard. Anyway, this kids poise and ability to run an offense was shocking considering it was just his second game ever. I know we think we're in good shape with Andre Hollins, but I gotta say this looks like a whiff for Tubby (assuming he figures out the defense thing).
4. The Horizon race should be pretty good this year. Valpo killed Northern Illinois (not like that's hard) and Detroit was giving it to St. John's pretty good before they fell apart. I could see either team winning a game or two in the NCAA Tournament. Of course seeing as how those two teams are head and shoulders above the rest of the conference it probably means we can expect Cleveland State or something to get the auto-bid.
5. I thought this might be the worst version of Xavier we've seen in a very long time. Turns out it looks like this might be the worst version of Butler we've seen in a long time. I'm interested to see how this turns out with Brad Stevens if Butler bombs again. I realize he's built up all kinds of leeway with the back-to-back Finals runs, but the last couple of years have been really bad (if I'm right about this year) and if Butler doesn't get back to the tournament soon he's going to go from being known as a wunderkind to just another guy at a small school. He's already been replaced by Shaka Smart as the small school program builder who doesn't bolt du juor and with Tim Miles and John Groce (among others) taking advantage of March runs to move up in the world I wonder if Stevens has already blown his chance. Considering he was born in Indiana and never left he might not even care, which is good because soon he might not have a choice.
6. Michigan State and Kansas are going to be just fine. Not that there was ever much doubt, but both teams lost significant, and I mean significant, players from last season so there was part of me that wondered if they'd struggle but both looked very good in Michigan State's 67-64 victory. Both teams were a little sloppy (31 combined turnovers) but both offenses look to be almost in prime shape already. Keith Appling was sick (19 points and an insane lay-up to put MSU up 3 with 15 secs left) and Gary Harris joined him in the back court (18 points) to make the Spartans look like they might actually have the best guards in the Big 10 and Branden Dawson looks like he's all the way back from a knee injury. For Kansas it's much the same story with Ben McLemore and Elijah Johnson looking like they can step right in and be a very, very good pair of guards. What an awesome game this was. Although that final Kansas play looked very Tubby Smith-errific.
7. I have no idea how VCU got beaten by Wichita. VCU has their entire team back. Wichita has nobody back. I thought Wichita would finally fade away, but apparently they just re-load. Must be sweet.
8. Alex Poythress is ridiculous. I have no idea why I didn't know how athletic this guy is but I'd put him up there with Michael Kidd-Gilchrist last year. It's probably because his name sounds pretty nerdy. Honestly I couldn't even have told you if he was white or black before tonight because I didn't know anything about him, I just thought he sounded kind of like a nerd. He's not. He just dunks on Duke nerds' heads. He's like a taller Rico Tucker.
Realistically looking at the year prior (Championship) and the year after (have you seen that recruiting class?) this is the worst team of that three year span for Kentucky and it's not really even close, and yet I'd be shocked if they aren't in the Final Four this year again. Betwixt Calipari's ability to recruit the one-and-done type talent and the mystique and allure (good stripper names, fyi) of Kentucky that place is set up to be the closest thing to a dynasty since UCLA in the 60s or 70s or whatever. Maybe both. Effing Kareem.
9. The other day I went my whole family went to Joe's Crab Shack to celebrate my birthday and there was this dude at the table next to us who ate his corn on the cob with a fork. And I don't mean like that he cut the kernels off with a knife and then ate them like niblets, I mean he straight up just used his fork to scoop it right off the cob. I wasn't sure if it was impressive or not but then Snacks got his dainty thing on and was like "I hate corn on the cob because I don't like getting it in my teeth and stuff" and he tried it and couldn't do it. So basically this dude had a lifetime of experience of scooping corn kernels off the cob with a knife. He was like MacGyver crossed with Mr. Pitt. I didn't know if I should laugh or be impressed, but I certainly made sure to have everyone look. Changed my life.
1. I want to know what's going on with Trevor Mbakwe. His line looked better in this Toledo game (6 pts - 7 boards - 2 blks) but he still only played 14 minutes which is the same number of minutes he played in the game against American. Is he still hurt? Is this some sort of punishment? I'd really like to know.
2. Nineteen turnovers against Toledo? Gross. Loyola-Illinois, who is terrible, turned it over just 15 times against Toledo.
3. Is Andre Hollins ok? Maybe all the expectations are getting to him and he's pressing a bit (2-15 shooting so far, 4 TOs vs. 1 assist vs. Toledo) or maybe he's got something else going on in his head that's hurting his concentration (the shooting, plus five missed free throws already this year vs. just nine all of last season).
It's early and the team is winning, but all three of these need to get figured out before they start playing real games or they're going to be in trouble. This Thursday's game against Tennessee State is a losable game, so they may as well start playing better ASAP. The defense and rebounding have been absolutely outstanding, however, and that's a very good sign even against this level of competition. Small sample size and all, but kenpom rates the Gophers as the 8th best defensive team in the country statistically (includes rebounding) and that does take quality of competition into account (for example, American shot 24% against the Gophers and 53% in their next game against Quinnipiac - that bodes well for the Gophers).
Also, in case you were unaware somehow, ESPN just did a 24-hour college basketball marathon. Thanks to a flexible work environment that allows working from home and the miracle of internet access I was able to take in a decent amount of it. Here's what I thought was worth noting.
1. I watched the first half of Youngstown/Georgia (not part of the marathon) and figured Georgia's first half performance (3-24 shooting) would be the ugliest thing I saw all week, but I was wrong because West Virginia looked absolutely god awful in getting destroyed by Gonzaga. The Bulldogs also looked pretty good and definitely had something to do with it, but WVU just got destroyed on every level. Gonzaga had open shot after open shot (52% Shooting, 56% from 3) while WVU just threw up bricks (shot 27%, 11% from 3) and I saw at least two times in the first half where a Mountaineer 3-point attempt hit the backboard before it hit the rim. I'm sure WVU will end up being not this terrible since they're relying on three transfers to pretty much carry the team this year and that always seems to take a while to gel, but that was one of the ugliest performances I can remember watching from a team that was supposed to at least be in the mix for an at-large bid since every Gopher game ever.
2. Kendall Williams (New Mexico) is a stud PG. I didn't stay up late enough to watch this one after WVU put me to sleep, but Williams put up a line of 17 pts - 6 rebs - 7 assists - 0 turnovers. Nice.
3. The Gophers could have used Siyani Chambers. The freshman point guard from Hopkins ended up at Harvard because that was basically the only school that recruited him and oh my did he look good against UMass, nearly leading the Crimson to a big upset playing all 40 minutes and finishing with 14 pts, 5 rebs, and 7 assists to just 1 turnover and even more impressive than the stats was just watching him. He completely controlled the game when Harvard had the ball (his defense, on the other hand, was pretty atrocious). It got to the point where UMass won the game by doing everything possible to keep the ball out of his hands when they ran their press and then the Harvard dopes turned it over twice in the final minute leading to a pretty surprising comeback win for the Minutemen when it looked like this game was in the bag for Harvard. Anyway, this kids poise and ability to run an offense was shocking considering it was just his second game ever. I know we think we're in good shape with Andre Hollins, but I gotta say this looks like a whiff for Tubby (assuming he figures out the defense thing).
4. The Horizon race should be pretty good this year. Valpo killed Northern Illinois (not like that's hard) and Detroit was giving it to St. John's pretty good before they fell apart. I could see either team winning a game or two in the NCAA Tournament. Of course seeing as how those two teams are head and shoulders above the rest of the conference it probably means we can expect Cleveland State or something to get the auto-bid.
5. I thought this might be the worst version of Xavier we've seen in a very long time. Turns out it looks like this might be the worst version of Butler we've seen in a long time. I'm interested to see how this turns out with Brad Stevens if Butler bombs again. I realize he's built up all kinds of leeway with the back-to-back Finals runs, but the last couple of years have been really bad (if I'm right about this year) and if Butler doesn't get back to the tournament soon he's going to go from being known as a wunderkind to just another guy at a small school. He's already been replaced by Shaka Smart as the small school program builder who doesn't bolt du juor and with Tim Miles and John Groce (among others) taking advantage of March runs to move up in the world I wonder if Stevens has already blown his chance. Considering he was born in Indiana and never left he might not even care, which is good because soon he might not have a choice.
6. Michigan State and Kansas are going to be just fine. Not that there was ever much doubt, but both teams lost significant, and I mean significant, players from last season so there was part of me that wondered if they'd struggle but both looked very good in Michigan State's 67-64 victory. Both teams were a little sloppy (31 combined turnovers) but both offenses look to be almost in prime shape already. Keith Appling was sick (19 points and an insane lay-up to put MSU up 3 with 15 secs left) and Gary Harris joined him in the back court (18 points) to make the Spartans look like they might actually have the best guards in the Big 10 and Branden Dawson looks like he's all the way back from a knee injury. For Kansas it's much the same story with Ben McLemore and Elijah Johnson looking like they can step right in and be a very, very good pair of guards. What an awesome game this was. Although that final Kansas play looked very Tubby Smith-errific.
7. I have no idea how VCU got beaten by Wichita. VCU has their entire team back. Wichita has nobody back. I thought Wichita would finally fade away, but apparently they just re-load. Must be sweet.
8. Alex Poythress is ridiculous. I have no idea why I didn't know how athletic this guy is but I'd put him up there with Michael Kidd-Gilchrist last year. It's probably because his name sounds pretty nerdy. Honestly I couldn't even have told you if he was white or black before tonight because I didn't know anything about him, I just thought he sounded kind of like a nerd. He's not. He just dunks on Duke nerds' heads. He's like a taller Rico Tucker.
Realistically looking at the year prior (Championship) and the year after (have you seen that recruiting class?) this is the worst team of that three year span for Kentucky and it's not really even close, and yet I'd be shocked if they aren't in the Final Four this year again. Betwixt Calipari's ability to recruit the one-and-done type talent and the mystique and allure (good stripper names, fyi) of Kentucky that place is set up to be the closest thing to a dynasty since UCLA in the 60s or 70s or whatever. Maybe both. Effing Kareem.
9. The other day I went my whole family went to Joe's Crab Shack to celebrate my birthday and there was this dude at the table next to us who ate his corn on the cob with a fork. And I don't mean like that he cut the kernels off with a knife and then ate them like niblets, I mean he straight up just used his fork to scoop it right off the cob. I wasn't sure if it was impressive or not but then Snacks got his dainty thing on and was like "I hate corn on the cob because I don't like getting it in my teeth and stuff" and he tried it and couldn't do it. So basically this dude had a lifetime of experience of scooping corn kernels off the cob with a knife. He was like MacGyver crossed with Mr. Pitt. I didn't know if I should laugh or be impressed, but I certainly made sure to have everyone look. Changed my life.
Monday, November 5, 2012
DWG College Hoops Preview: Teams #18-#12
I wasn't able to go to the Gopher game tonight, so instead here are a
few more NCAA Hoop Previews (we're almost done!). But first, a quick
check on the Big 10 teams and how they've done in the exhibitions that
have been played so far.
Illinois 79-47 over Lewis and 75-66 over West Chester. The Illini had 21 turnovers vs. just 7 assists against West Chester. Safe to say their issues with ball-handling haven't been resolved just yet.
Indiana 86-57 over Wesleyan. Maurice Creek led the Hoosiers in scoring with 12. I would have sworn that dude had graduated already.
Iowa 100-54 over Quincy. Hawks forced 31 turnovers in this game, and based on possessions in the game it looks like Iowa might be converted over to a run-and-gun, press the whole game type of team. Tom Davis would be proud.
Michigan 83-47 over Northern Michigan. Trey Burke was suspended for this one which clearly didn't matter. Two of the three vaunted freshmen hit double figures. Tim Hardaway had 5 assists and zero turnovers. Luckily he still shoots like shit.
Michigan State 85-47 over Northwood and 62-49 over St. Cloud State. Derrick Nix looking like he's come to play this year with a 13 & 8 and 14 & 7 in these two. Then again, I doubt teams of that caliber have anyone who can handle someone as wide as Nix in the paint.
Nebraska: yet to play. They can't even figure out scheduling properly.
Northwestern: yet to play. You'll never make the NCAA Tournament this way.
Ohio State 83-71 over Walsh. DeShaun Thomas scored 25 and got up 17 shots with nobody else on OSU putting up more than 9. The man is just a scoring machine. Breathtaking.
Penn State 79-54 over Philadelphia. D.J. Newbill, a transfer from Southern Miss, scored 15 them and Tim Frazier scored 17 with 8 assists. Frazier is insane. How he can put up the kind of numbers he did last year with no help is baffling.
Purdue 70-61 over Montevallo and 109-68 over Newberry. They have three guys named Johnson (Ronnie, Terone, and Anthony) who were the three leading scorers against Montevallo. That's hilarious.
Wisconsin: yet to play. Slackers.
Anyway, on with it. And don't forget to check out the post directly below this one for TRE's Western Conference Preview which I totally just stepped all over.
18. Creighton Blue Jays. You're going to hear a sickening amount about Creighton this year, and not without reason, but you know how much ESPN loves their little teams that could and Creighton is the top qualifier this year (since Gonzaga and Memphis have done it so long and no longer qualify - well maybe Gonzaga). This is a team that beat Alabama in the first round of the NCAA Tournament last season and has nine of its top ten guys back including Doug McDermott who is somehow a National Player of the Year candidate. The guy they lose is a big one in Antoine Young who has been their PG for three years, but he didn't even lead the team in assists last year so they'll probably be ok. The real problem is that schedule. They have a couple of so-so teams on there (North Texas, Cal, St. Joe's) but the only real team is Wisconsin and they just lost their PG for the season. So it's very likely they will enter the MVC schedule undefeated and should run through there with only 1-2 losses. Can you hear the media coverage already? Can't you already hear Dickie V screaming about McDermott and Creighton? Ugh. I'm sick of it already and it hasn't even started yet.
17. Kansas Jayhawks. These guys rank 7th in both polls so I might be underrating them, but losing both Tyshawn Taylor and Thomas Robinson is huge - that's 34 points, 14 boards, and 7 assists just gone. Then again, the year prior they lost the Morris twins and made the Championship Game, and the year before that they lost Sherron Collins (what happened to that guy?), Cole Aldrich, and Xavier Henry and still made the elite 8. So I guess, what, Kansas is kind of a basketball factory? Man, why am I always the last to know? You know they're going to be involved on some level because you know they're always going to play defense, and even more fun is that big dopey surfer dude, Jeff Withey, is back with his 3.6 blocks per game from last year. Man I love shotblockers. Remember Antoine Broxsie? God was I excited when he transferred to the Gophers. Whiffed on that one. He's the starting PF on my all-disappointing Gopher team (PG: Adam Boone, SG: Rico Tucker, SF: Rick Rickert , PF Broxsie, C Ralph Sampson, and Voshon Lenard's senior year should be on here somewhere too)
16. Arizona Wildcats. Arizona looks to be back, finally, and I for one am happy about it. To have the alma mater of Sean Elliott and Sean Rooks be a giant suckhole was not good for my brain, man, but they're back. A monster recruiting class (ranked #3 in the country by ESPN with four dudes in their top 100), a big-time transfer (Mark Lyons from Xavier who averaged 15 points and 3 assists per game last year and is immediately eligible thanks to that post-graduate rule that everyone who has ever used has been doing in order to further their academic career), and a couple of studs in waiting back will have Arizona back in the NCAA Tournament after their streak of I don't know like 25 years in a row or something ended last season. FUN FACT: Lyons was recruited to Xavier by then head coach Sean Miller. Sean Miller is now Arizona's coach. Good thing Arizona offered a post-grad degree Lyons was after that Xavier didn't. What a happy coincidence.
15. Gonzaga Bulldogs. I've come way around on the Bulldogs. When they started winning a bunch of games I initially hated them the same way I currently hate Davidson - an annoying little brother winning a few too many games after hitting a lucky streak that the national media wants to make out with at all times - but now I've decided I'm a big fan. You can't have this run of success by accident, and it's impressive how they've managed to keep it going and, stop me if you've heard this before, this season might be their best. As per usual they're loaded in the back court with Kevin Pangos and Gary Bell, and these guys are just sophomores so you can expect them to be good for at least another few seasons, and Elias Harris is back and was good again last year so there's no reason to think he won't jump up another level in his final college year. The key to this team's success may end up being center Sam Dower, a junior from Osseo (yes, Osseo, MN) who apparently the Gophers didn't need. He's had a couple of nice seasons as a back-up and with Robert Sacre gone he's primed for a breakout year. Gonzaga highlights on SportsCenter are literally going to kill me this year. Yes, I said literally.
14. North Carolina Tar Heels. Normally a team starting two freshmen and two guys coming back off knee surgery would be cause for concern, but you know the deal once you start getting to this caliber of team - these aren't exactly mediocre talents. James McAdoo, who for some reason is always called James Michael McAdoo which I am not going to do because it's annoying, could have been a Top 10 NBA pick last season if he had left despite playing just 15 minutes per game with UNC because apparently nobody remembers Marvin Williams, but he chose to stay and is immediately one of the favorites for ACC Player of the Year. Seriously these guys will be fine. The back-ups who played 10 minutes per game last year were all like, Top 50 recruits who were just biding their time, and they bring in the 8th ranked recruiting class which included stealing two guys (Marcus Paige from Iowa, J.P. Tokoto from Wisconsin) out of the midwest so seriously F these guys. The only reason not to completely hate Carolina is because at least they aren't Duke.
13. Memphis Tigers. Guess which team hasn't won an NCAA Tournament game the last three years (no not the Gophers I mean a team that's supposed to win those games)? Well obviously it's Memphis otherwise why would I bring it up? That will have to change if Sam Weir look-a-like Josh Pastner wants to stay comfortable as Memphis jumps to the Big East next season, because this Memphis team is finally loaded the way those all Caliparian teams were. They've got a very talented back court including former McDonald's All-American Shoeless Joe Jackson, Adonis Thomas (another former McD's AA who was hurt the majority of last season) is also back and healthy, and in the paint they grabbed another McD's AA in Shaq Thomas. So yeah, I'd say Pastner's recruiting has finally caught up to what Calipari was doing when he was at Memphis. Expect sanctions any day.
12. Baylor Bears. It's pretty incredible that Baylor can lose Perry Jones, Quincy Acy, and Quincy Miller all to the NBA and still have a shot at being a top 10 team this year, but Baylor has turned into a pretty incredible program. Pierre Jackson is back to run the show after being named Honorable Mention All-American last season and was tabbed as the Big 12 Preseason Player of the Year, and his back court mate Brady Heslip is back as well to knock down a billion threes. Add in Deuce Bello, A.J. Walton, and Gary Franklin and it's safe to say there are no questions about Baylor's guard play. Losing the entire front court could hurt, but Baylor could easily go three guards and there's plenty of incoming talent as well. Particularly Isaiah Austin who is the best incoming center in the country and a top-5 overall recruit - the kind of guy lesser schools would call a "program changer" but just business as usual at Baylor. Plus J'mison Morgan is somehow still around. I swear that dude is older than Mbakwe.
Previous:
Teams #68-60
Teams #59-53
Teams #52-47
Teams #46-39
Teams #38-34
Teams #33-26
Teams #25-20
Team #19 (GOPHERS)
Illinois 79-47 over Lewis and 75-66 over West Chester. The Illini had 21 turnovers vs. just 7 assists against West Chester. Safe to say their issues with ball-handling haven't been resolved just yet.
Indiana 86-57 over Wesleyan. Maurice Creek led the Hoosiers in scoring with 12. I would have sworn that dude had graduated already.
Iowa 100-54 over Quincy. Hawks forced 31 turnovers in this game, and based on possessions in the game it looks like Iowa might be converted over to a run-and-gun, press the whole game type of team. Tom Davis would be proud.
Michigan 83-47 over Northern Michigan. Trey Burke was suspended for this one which clearly didn't matter. Two of the three vaunted freshmen hit double figures. Tim Hardaway had 5 assists and zero turnovers. Luckily he still shoots like shit.
Michigan State 85-47 over Northwood and 62-49 over St. Cloud State. Derrick Nix looking like he's come to play this year with a 13 & 8 and 14 & 7 in these two. Then again, I doubt teams of that caliber have anyone who can handle someone as wide as Nix in the paint.
Nebraska: yet to play. They can't even figure out scheduling properly.
Northwestern: yet to play. You'll never make the NCAA Tournament this way.
Ohio State 83-71 over Walsh. DeShaun Thomas scored 25 and got up 17 shots with nobody else on OSU putting up more than 9. The man is just a scoring machine. Breathtaking.
Penn State 79-54 over Philadelphia. D.J. Newbill, a transfer from Southern Miss, scored 15 them and Tim Frazier scored 17 with 8 assists. Frazier is insane. How he can put up the kind of numbers he did last year with no help is baffling.
Purdue 70-61 over Montevallo and 109-68 over Newberry. They have three guys named Johnson (Ronnie, Terone, and Anthony) who were the three leading scorers against Montevallo. That's hilarious.
Wisconsin: yet to play. Slackers.
Anyway, on with it. And don't forget to check out the post directly below this one for TRE's Western Conference Preview which I totally just stepped all over.
Previous:
Teams #68-60
Teams #59-53
Teams #52-47
Teams #46-39
Teams #38-34
Teams #33-26
Teams #25-20
Team #19 (GOPHERS)
Monday, February 27, 2012
Week in Review: 2-27/2012
I have no idea what to say or how to say it. We've been down this road again and again and written this same recap again and again. That was just an embarrassing loss, particularly when the season was on the line (as thin as that line may have been) and it was a home game against a team you've already beaten on the road. To get absolutely blown out in a must-win home game sends pretty much the loudest message possible to the committee that you don't belong in the NCAA Tournament. Even winning out the last two and making a run to the conference tournament final probably isn't enough anymore, but we don't really have to worry about it because there is zero chance this team can win at Wisconsin. They've checked out.
I don't think they've checked out on Tubby, but they've certainly checked out on this season. The body language says it all, and Ralph's 1-11 shooting performance on Sunday basically sums it up. This is a defeated team, and Tubby feels it as well. At this point these two games need to just end, then lose in the first round of the b10 tourney, and start planning for next year. It's clear the players just want this season to end, and I can't blame them because it's been miserable these last couple of weeks. But I'm not on the fire Tubby bandwagon, even if I've been critical of his game coaching abilities. I remain critical of those, but he deserves one more year, but it's a make or break year. If there's another season that goes similarly to this one, it's time to move on. The important thing is to build a program, and if he misses another NCAA Tournament, well, there's no building going on. One more year, Tubby. Show us why we were all excited when the hiring was initially announced. This is just sad.
I mean, look at Notre Dame this year. Both the Gophers and Notre Dame received exactly one 25th place vote in a poll to start the season (Gophers in the AP, Notre Dame in the coaches). Both teams lost their best player for the year, a senior power forward, early in the season (like Mbakwe for the Gophers, Tim Abromaitis led the team in both scoring and rebounding when he went down). Neither team had any kind of real impact freshman coming in, so post-injury both schools looked to be in trouble. But, where the Gophers have struggled and floundered and canceled out any flashes of brilliance with some terrible outings, Notre Dame has played together, executed well consistently, and completely bought in to Mike Brey's system and is 20-10 overall, 12-5 in the Big East, and a lock for the tournament. Look at these two teams. It's hard to say Notre Dame is significantly more talented, if at all, than the Gophers, and yet look at the results. Unsettling, at best.
We move on....
WHO WAS AWESOME
1. Iowa State Cyclones. Well, for those of you out there who were complete idiots and were saying Fred Hoiberg was some kind of moron for collected talented yet troubled transfers (and you know who you are) how about you pour some Bacardi 151 in your butthole and chase it with a match? Because Iowa State just won at Kansas State - the same K-State who just beat both Baylor and Missouri on the road - to move to 11-5 in Big 12 play and 21-8 overall. They're now tied for 4th with Baylor in the Conference and have now 100% locked up an NCAA bid. While the Gophers need a miracle. I'm moving to Ames. Plus they got craps there.
2. Purdue Boilermakers. While every other Big 10 team who was chasing a bid goes down faster than your mom on prom night, Purdue is taking a stand and doing what needs to be done like full grown men. I'm just kidding about that sentence by the way, it's intentionally douchey (except for the mom joke, that's all me). Anyway, while everyone else is pooping on their heads, Purdue went into Ann Arbor and beat Michigan, a team that was undefeated at home this year, was ranked #11 in the polls, #10 in the RPI, and #21 in kenpom's ratings. That, my friends, is the definition of a signature win and puts Purdue firmly into tournament lock status. And you know how they won? Because Terone Johnson shot 9-12 for 22 points and carried the offense. You know the last time an unsung-y Gopher like Johnson stepped up to carry the team to a victory? Caddyshack. Cue rimshot.
3. Kansas Jayhawks. I kind of feel like I've been underrating the Jayhawks all year, mainly because they're a two-man show and also because I hate them and have hated them since that little wiener Jeff Boschee was running around being wienery. But they're about to win the Big 12 for the 9th straight year* after beating Missouri, and that win was a freaking ballsy ass win because they were down 19 and came back against an incredibly good team. And Thomas Robinson? Holy hell is this guy good. He's nearly flawless in the low post, and because Missouri only has one low-post kind of defender in Ricardo Ratliffe (who, by the way, is completely awesome in his own way) they chose to single cover Robinson all game and he put on a clinic. Now, this is hyperbole of the biggest fashion so don't jump down my throat, but watching him I actually was reminded of Hakeem Olajuwon. I know, I know, but I was. I can't help it. Guy's legit.
4. Miami Hurricanes. I've said it before and I'll say it again, I'm always impressed with teams on the Bubble who go out and get that big home win that they need (mainly because I don't know if I've ever seen it from my favorite team), and Miami did just that this weekend, taking down the #16 Seminoles 78-62 to jump up and likely grab themselves and NCAA bid. Most impressive is that they did it without starting center and double-double guy Reggie Johnson, who was ruled ineligible by the NCAA due to some minor infractions that will hopefully be resolved quickly. Not to mention that even without him they managed to put up 78 points on the usually defensively studly Seminoles, the first time a team has scored that much on them since January 7th. Pretty sure Miami sucks and won't win a game in the tourney, but at least they're most likely going to make it.
5. South Florida Bulls. Speaking of college teams from the state of Florida who picked up huge wins with bubble ramifications over the weekend, USF knocked off fellow bubble team Cincinnati on Sunday and can pretty officially no longer be ignored. The game wasn't pretty with the Bulls winning 46-45, both teams having just one player score in double figures, and the two teams combined to shoot 6-30 from 3-point land, but USF did what they needed to do and got a big victory. South Florida is now 11-5 in the Big East, has bumped their RPI up to 45 (right behind K-State), and now has a 4-1 record against teams between 40-100 in the RPI. Of course, they are also 0-7 vs. the RPI top 40 and have three losses against sub-100 teams, but closing out the season at 11-4 is pretty solid. You'd have to think if they can finish out 1-1 (@Louisville, vs. WVU) and then win their Big East Tourny opener they'd be in - a far cry from the team that started the year 7-7 and lost to Penn State (among other craptastic squads).
WHO SUCKED
1. Seton Hall Pirates. Are you shitting me Seton Hall? So they beat Georgetown for one of the most meaningful bubble wins this year and it's all like oh hell yes sweet what a great win awesome to see a team actually step up when they have to. And how do they follow it up? By losing at home to freaking Rutgers. Rutgers of the four conference wins and #149 RPI. Seriously, I mean if this doesn't completely wipe out all the good they did by beating the Hoyas it's damn close. I swear to god this is exactly what I expect from the Gophers or Northwestern, not a real team from the Big East. Shaheen Holloway is probably rolling over in his sports grave.
2. West Virginia Mountaineers. Even though there are plenty of teams doing everything they can to avoid getting invited to the NCAA Tournament, I don't know if anybody is doing a better job of tanking than West Virginia. On January 21 they were 15-5 and 5-2 in the Big East after beating Cincinnati. Since then they've gone 2-7 (with one of the wins taking overtime to beat Providence). This week may have been the worst, first going to Notre Dame and getting beat by 30, then taking on a Marquette squad that suspended three starters for the first half, building an 11-point half-time lead, and then blowing it and losing by one. A team that looked like an easy lock for the NCAA Tournament a month ago is now completely floundering, and with just games vs. DePaul and @ South Florida left a 2-0 finish is now an absolute must, and they might need a win or two in the Big East Tournament to get in. Seriously, if Huggins is going to find a way to cheat he might as well get started pretty quick.
3. Florida Gators. Jeez this seems like a very Florida-y week in review, which I guess is kind of appropriate since I'm going to Florida for a family vacation starting next Tuesday and that's kind of on my mind, but it's been a very Florda-centric week for being awesome and sucking so here we are. Anyway, the Gators continue to show how vulnerable they are because of their reliance on the perimeter jumper, and Georgia took advantage taking them down 76-62 with the Gators shooting just 5-23 from three. 39% of Florida's points come from three-pointers, the 3rd most in the country, and 44.6% of their shot attempts come from behind the arc (6th in the nation). Even though they do shoot them well (39.4%, 16th in the country) relying on something that can disappear in any given game, combined with a pretty bad defense (94th in Defensive efficiency) is a recipe for any early March exit.
4. Ohio State Buckeyes. Obviously there are varying degrees of sucking because I would kill your mother if it meant the Gophers would even approach Ohio State's success, but for a team that was/is supposed to be a national title contender there are some major concerns right now, with Ohio State 2-3 in their last five games including two home losses (to Michigan State and Wisconsin, but still). The Buckeyes were supposed to cruise to a Big 10 title and even with Michigan State having a tremendous year they should still be the class of the conference, but all of a sudden they're showing a whole bunch of chinks in their armor (wait, are we allowed to say that?) Buford has just been plain off most of the year, Craft hasn't turned into anything on the offensive end, and suddenly Sullinger is disappearing in games (17 total points in the last two, plus 1-7 from the free throw line when he's a 74% shooter this season). Still plenty of talent here and they're probably still one of the 10 best teams in the country, but suddenly an early round loss in the tournament doesn't seem like the impossibility it once did.
5. Cal Golden Bears. I don't know why I obsess about the Pac-10's mediocrity so much, but it's just mind boggling that a conference with schools like UCLA, USC, Washington, Cal, etc. can be so bad at basketball for so long. Every year there's a point where it looks like the Pac-12 might only get one bid, and although I don't think it's actually happened yet it's amazing how close it gets every year. And once again this season just when it looks like both Cal and Washington are safe, Cal goes out and gets destroyed by Colorado 70-57. Both Washington and Cal will probably still get in and everything, but jeez man, it's just amazing how much they suck. Also, in a semi-related note, with all the conference realignment going on I think what makes the most sense is for the Gophers to move into the Pac-12. It's common sense, really.
With conference tournaments starting up this week I need to get to work on the small conference tournament previews, so you'll have to do without your pithy outro this week. You know, the outro nobody reads because they've usually bailed on my post halfway through or so because it's too long and/or boring? Yeah, that.
* = I made this up because I was toodrunk tired to actually look it up
I don't think they've checked out on Tubby, but they've certainly checked out on this season. The body language says it all, and Ralph's 1-11 shooting performance on Sunday basically sums it up. This is a defeated team, and Tubby feels it as well. At this point these two games need to just end, then lose in the first round of the b10 tourney, and start planning for next year. It's clear the players just want this season to end, and I can't blame them because it's been miserable these last couple of weeks. But I'm not on the fire Tubby bandwagon, even if I've been critical of his game coaching abilities. I remain critical of those, but he deserves one more year, but it's a make or break year. If there's another season that goes similarly to this one, it's time to move on. The important thing is to build a program, and if he misses another NCAA Tournament, well, there's no building going on. One more year, Tubby. Show us why we were all excited when the hiring was initially announced. This is just sad.
I mean, look at Notre Dame this year. Both the Gophers and Notre Dame received exactly one 25th place vote in a poll to start the season (Gophers in the AP, Notre Dame in the coaches). Both teams lost their best player for the year, a senior power forward, early in the season (like Mbakwe for the Gophers, Tim Abromaitis led the team in both scoring and rebounding when he went down). Neither team had any kind of real impact freshman coming in, so post-injury both schools looked to be in trouble. But, where the Gophers have struggled and floundered and canceled out any flashes of brilliance with some terrible outings, Notre Dame has played together, executed well consistently, and completely bought in to Mike Brey's system and is 20-10 overall, 12-5 in the Big East, and a lock for the tournament. Look at these two teams. It's hard to say Notre Dame is significantly more talented, if at all, than the Gophers, and yet look at the results. Unsettling, at best.
We move on....
WHO WAS AWESOME
1. Iowa State Cyclones. Well, for those of you out there who were complete idiots and were saying Fred Hoiberg was some kind of moron for collected talented yet troubled transfers (and you know who you are) how about you pour some Bacardi 151 in your butthole and chase it with a match? Because Iowa State just won at Kansas State - the same K-State who just beat both Baylor and Missouri on the road - to move to 11-5 in Big 12 play and 21-8 overall. They're now tied for 4th with Baylor in the Conference and have now 100% locked up an NCAA bid. While the Gophers need a miracle. I'm moving to Ames. Plus they got craps there.
2. Purdue Boilermakers. While every other Big 10 team who was chasing a bid goes down faster than your mom on prom night, Purdue is taking a stand and doing what needs to be done like full grown men. I'm just kidding about that sentence by the way, it's intentionally douchey (except for the mom joke, that's all me). Anyway, while everyone else is pooping on their heads, Purdue went into Ann Arbor and beat Michigan, a team that was undefeated at home this year, was ranked #11 in the polls, #10 in the RPI, and #21 in kenpom's ratings. That, my friends, is the definition of a signature win and puts Purdue firmly into tournament lock status. And you know how they won? Because Terone Johnson shot 9-12 for 22 points and carried the offense. You know the last time an unsung-y Gopher like Johnson stepped up to carry the team to a victory? Caddyshack. Cue rimshot.
3. Kansas Jayhawks. I kind of feel like I've been underrating the Jayhawks all year, mainly because they're a two-man show and also because I hate them and have hated them since that little wiener Jeff Boschee was running around being wienery. But they're about to win the Big 12 for the 9th straight year* after beating Missouri, and that win was a freaking ballsy ass win because they were down 19 and came back against an incredibly good team. And Thomas Robinson? Holy hell is this guy good. He's nearly flawless in the low post, and because Missouri only has one low-post kind of defender in Ricardo Ratliffe (who, by the way, is completely awesome in his own way) they chose to single cover Robinson all game and he put on a clinic. Now, this is hyperbole of the biggest fashion so don't jump down my throat, but watching him I actually was reminded of Hakeem Olajuwon. I know, I know, but I was. I can't help it. Guy's legit.
4. Miami Hurricanes. I've said it before and I'll say it again, I'm always impressed with teams on the Bubble who go out and get that big home win that they need (mainly because I don't know if I've ever seen it from my favorite team), and Miami did just that this weekend, taking down the #16 Seminoles 78-62 to jump up and likely grab themselves and NCAA bid. Most impressive is that they did it without starting center and double-double guy Reggie Johnson, who was ruled ineligible by the NCAA due to some minor infractions that will hopefully be resolved quickly. Not to mention that even without him they managed to put up 78 points on the usually defensively studly Seminoles, the first time a team has scored that much on them since January 7th. Pretty sure Miami sucks and won't win a game in the tourney, but at least they're most likely going to make it.
5. South Florida Bulls. Speaking of college teams from the state of Florida who picked up huge wins with bubble ramifications over the weekend, USF knocked off fellow bubble team Cincinnati on Sunday and can pretty officially no longer be ignored. The game wasn't pretty with the Bulls winning 46-45, both teams having just one player score in double figures, and the two teams combined to shoot 6-30 from 3-point land, but USF did what they needed to do and got a big victory. South Florida is now 11-5 in the Big East, has bumped their RPI up to 45 (right behind K-State), and now has a 4-1 record against teams between 40-100 in the RPI. Of course, they are also 0-7 vs. the RPI top 40 and have three losses against sub-100 teams, but closing out the season at 11-4 is pretty solid. You'd have to think if they can finish out 1-1 (@Louisville, vs. WVU) and then win their Big East Tourny opener they'd be in - a far cry from the team that started the year 7-7 and lost to Penn State (among other craptastic squads).
WHO SUCKED
1. Seton Hall Pirates. Are you shitting me Seton Hall? So they beat Georgetown for one of the most meaningful bubble wins this year and it's all like oh hell yes sweet what a great win awesome to see a team actually step up when they have to. And how do they follow it up? By losing at home to freaking Rutgers. Rutgers of the four conference wins and #149 RPI. Seriously, I mean if this doesn't completely wipe out all the good they did by beating the Hoyas it's damn close. I swear to god this is exactly what I expect from the Gophers or Northwestern, not a real team from the Big East. Shaheen Holloway is probably rolling over in his sports grave.
2. West Virginia Mountaineers. Even though there are plenty of teams doing everything they can to avoid getting invited to the NCAA Tournament, I don't know if anybody is doing a better job of tanking than West Virginia. On January 21 they were 15-5 and 5-2 in the Big East after beating Cincinnati. Since then they've gone 2-7 (with one of the wins taking overtime to beat Providence). This week may have been the worst, first going to Notre Dame and getting beat by 30, then taking on a Marquette squad that suspended three starters for the first half, building an 11-point half-time lead, and then blowing it and losing by one. A team that looked like an easy lock for the NCAA Tournament a month ago is now completely floundering, and with just games vs. DePaul and @ South Florida left a 2-0 finish is now an absolute must, and they might need a win or two in the Big East Tournament to get in. Seriously, if Huggins is going to find a way to cheat he might as well get started pretty quick.
3. Florida Gators. Jeez this seems like a very Florida-y week in review, which I guess is kind of appropriate since I'm going to Florida for a family vacation starting next Tuesday and that's kind of on my mind, but it's been a very Florda-centric week for being awesome and sucking so here we are. Anyway, the Gators continue to show how vulnerable they are because of their reliance on the perimeter jumper, and Georgia took advantage taking them down 76-62 with the Gators shooting just 5-23 from three. 39% of Florida's points come from three-pointers, the 3rd most in the country, and 44.6% of their shot attempts come from behind the arc (6th in the nation). Even though they do shoot them well (39.4%, 16th in the country) relying on something that can disappear in any given game, combined with a pretty bad defense (94th in Defensive efficiency) is a recipe for any early March exit.
4. Ohio State Buckeyes. Obviously there are varying degrees of sucking because I would kill your mother if it meant the Gophers would even approach Ohio State's success, but for a team that was/is supposed to be a national title contender there are some major concerns right now, with Ohio State 2-3 in their last five games including two home losses (to Michigan State and Wisconsin, but still). The Buckeyes were supposed to cruise to a Big 10 title and even with Michigan State having a tremendous year they should still be the class of the conference, but all of a sudden they're showing a whole bunch of chinks in their armor (wait, are we allowed to say that?) Buford has just been plain off most of the year, Craft hasn't turned into anything on the offensive end, and suddenly Sullinger is disappearing in games (17 total points in the last two, plus 1-7 from the free throw line when he's a 74% shooter this season). Still plenty of talent here and they're probably still one of the 10 best teams in the country, but suddenly an early round loss in the tournament doesn't seem like the impossibility it once did.
5. Cal Golden Bears. I don't know why I obsess about the Pac-10's mediocrity so much, but it's just mind boggling that a conference with schools like UCLA, USC, Washington, Cal, etc. can be so bad at basketball for so long. Every year there's a point where it looks like the Pac-12 might only get one bid, and although I don't think it's actually happened yet it's amazing how close it gets every year. And once again this season just when it looks like both Cal and Washington are safe, Cal goes out and gets destroyed by Colorado 70-57. Both Washington and Cal will probably still get in and everything, but jeez man, it's just amazing how much they suck. Also, in a semi-related note, with all the conference realignment going on I think what makes the most sense is for the Gophers to move into the Pac-12. It's common sense, really.
With conference tournaments starting up this week I need to get to work on the small conference tournament previews, so you'll have to do without your pithy outro this week. You know, the outro nobody reads because they've usually bailed on my post halfway through or so because it's too long and/or boring? Yeah, that.
* = I made this up because I was too
Monday, February 6, 2012
My look at the Top 25 (part I - with bonus book review)
Ok I admit it - that Gopher loss to Iowa has completely drained me of my caringnessitude about this season. I'll be back if they beat Wisconsin, but right now I don't see anything in this team that makes me believe they're going to snag an NCAA bid, and that's the whole point of the season. That's why I took a nap on Sunday instead of watching them play Nebraska - I couldn't bear to watch another road implosion. Luckily and happily for me, they ended up winning which is good. Now it's time to play an extremely overrated Wisconsin team and if they can't win this one, that'll pretty much do it for the season. I may write a preview and I may not, but you know what you're getting from the Badgers anyway. Instead, I'm going to focus on the National Picture a bit, and give my thoughts on the Top 25. I did this last year and it was a big hit with me and I don't really care about anyone else. These are the rankings in the ESPN/USA today poll, not my personal rankings.
1. Kentucky Wildcats. I think there are four teams this year that are head and shoulders above everybody else in terms of pure talent (Kentucky, Missouri, Baylor, and UNC) but Kentucky is head and shoulders above the other three who are head and shoulders above the rest and they're playing up to their talent this year. Only loss is that 1-pointer at Indiana, and they've won 8 of their last 10 by at least double digits. You're always at risk in the tournament with a young team and a coach who is 95% recruiter/5% game coach, but Doron Lamb, Terrence Jones, and Darius Miller have been there before and can give you some leadership where Calipari fails. They also only go 6.5 deep even with all the blowouts so that's a concern (and I have no idea why Cal isn't giving more run to some other guys in these big wins to help hedge against possible foul trouble in a tournament game when you need someone to step in). Plenty of worries here, but I'm going to have an awfully hard time picking anybody else as my national champion come bracket fill-out time.
2. Syracuse Orange. I didn't list the Cuse as one of those top-4 talented teams this year but that's no slight to them because I think they do the best job of playing as an overall "team" (along with Mizzou). Now that the Fab Melo situation has been figured out they've got a rare mix of players where they can dominate you in the paint, on the perimeter, or slashing to the hole and with their athlete's this year Boeheim's zone might be one of his best ever. Opponent's do kill them on the offensive boards which can spell doom in a tight one, and I'm having trouble buying them completely because they lack any single win you can point to and say "holy shit Cuse is the goods", but they aren't 23-1 by accident. Probably the one top team where I'm just not quite sure what to think.
3. Ohio State Buckeyes. Ohio State is a team I think is flying a little bit under the radar right now, as much as that's possible for a team ranked third in the country. They beat Wisconsin this weekend in a slow-it-down, plodding game and just a couple of weeks ago beat Indiana in a more uptempo game. Their ability to win without having to dictate the pace of the game is a huge positive, not to mention that in William Buford and Jared Sullinger they have what might be the best inside-outside scoring duo in the country right now. They're a bit suspect from a big man stand point outside of Sullinger and, as usual, don't have much depth, but unless DeShaun Thomas shoots them right out of a game they have a great chance at another Final Four berth.
4. Missouri Tigers. One of the only teams I consider both supremely talented and supremely "team-y" for lack of a better term, Mizzou would be my clear pick to take the whole thing in March if it wasn't for damn Kentucky. The Tigers have a reputation as a high-scoring, fast-paced team and they are high-scoring, but they score a ton of points not because they play so fast (105th in the country in tempo) but because they're so efficient (#1 in offensive efficiency). Simply put, they make a lot of shots (#2 in the country in effective FG%) and they take a lot of shots because they rarely turn the ball over (#4 in the country) - thus they score a ton of points and force you to keep up. They have the best back court in the nation and although they look a little weak on the front line since they only really have one true forward in Ricardo Ratliffe, their win going into Baylor and taking on maybe the best front court in college tells me everything I know - it's either going to be Missouri or Kentucky cutting down the nets at the end.
5. North Carolina Tar Heels. Probably the second most talented team in the NCAA behind Kentucky, but they seem to missing every single intangible quality possible - nothing new for a Roy Williams led team. There's no leadership, no hustle, no killer instinct, and no drive. I know they only have three losses, but in two of those they were absolutely crushed (by UNLV and Florida State). And really, outside of the season opening win against Michigan State on a boat do they have a really good win? Wisconsin is overrated, Texas is terrible, and although Long Beach is a very good mid-major that's still all they are. I can't really guarantee an early exit because there is so much talent here, but Harrison Barnes, Kendall Marshall, and Tyler Zeller are all quite types who are looking for someone to follow - one of them needs to become THE guy or we're looking at a non-sweet 16 team here.
6. Baylor Bears. I have a feeling this is going to be the trendy pick for the Final Four (say they're a two seed) to come out of whatever region they end up in and it's tough to argue with - their two losses have been to Missouri and Kansas and that's it. One underrated aspect of Baylor is they are one of the best free throw shooting teams in the country at 74.2% (35th in the nation) and that's helped them win a lot of close ones (six wins over major conference foes of 5 pts or fewer) and could be a difference maker in March. The big worry is although Pierre Jackson has helped them out with the ball-handling this year Baylor is still one of the worst teams in the country in turning the ball over, and as we know one bad game and you're done.
7. Florida Gators. I still think Florida is a Final Four contender because they have such a good back court, but neither Patric Young nor Erik Murphy has become a consistent inside force and that's what they'll need to make a run because despite being perimeter oriented they aren't very good defensively. Erving Walker has settled down and become less chucker and more distributor and he's really allowed Boynton and Beal to flourish. I would love to see a Florida/Missouri match-up - the over/under would be about 170.
8. Murray State Racers. Please. They've played nobody, and I mean nobody. Their strength of schedule is 251, and non-conference it's 119. The only teams they've played that are "real" teams are Memphis (won by 4), Southern Miss (won in double OT), and Dayton (won by 17) and there's a good chance non of them make the NCAA Tournament, which would make Murray State 0-0 against NCAA Tournament teams. It's a cute team and a cute story, but not only have they not played anyone they aren't even beating the bad teams all that convincingly. They shoot over 40% from three so you can't completely write them off, but I have a pretty strong feeling they're a first game loss.
9. Duke Blue Devils. Same year same basic soft Duke team where all you really need is a strong inside dude who can push their finesse big guys around and some guards who can get said big man the ball as well as defend the three. It's why they lost to Florida State and why they lost to Miami on Sunday. Mike Kryzkyzkewski loves pansies - it's true.
SIDE BAR: I just finished up reading this book - The Last Great Game by Gene Wojciechowski who, to the best of my knowledge, is not related to that little Duke wiener, and I rather enjoyed it despite half the book being about Duke. That might have been the best part, because it basically proved that Christian Laettner really was an asshole, Bobby Hurley really was a whiner, and that Duke team was one of the least likeable teams in the history of history. The Kentucky half of the book is even better, since I was young enough at that time I didn't really realize how crazy it was that UK was even in that position considering the massive sanctions they were under in the few years prior. To get Pitino from the NBA, keep several of their recruits from fleeing despite the team being banned from the postseason, and for Pitino to get a recruit the caliber of Jamal Mashburn despite him knowing he couldn't play in the tournament is all just crazy. And Wojo (this one, not the annoying little rat) either has really old notes or a lot of these guys have incredible memories, because he paints a very vivid and detailed picture. Really, if you dig on college hoops books - as I do - I put this right up there with Feinstein's best work.
10. Kansas Jayhawks. The Jayhawks are interesting because even though I'm not necessarily impressed with them so far this year, they are the only team other than Kentucky who ranks in the top 10 in Ken Pomeroy's both offensive and defensive efficiency ratings. Maybe I should be, but I always worry about team's that are so reliant on two players (Thomas Robinson and Tyshawn Taylor use a combined nearly 60% of KU's possessions). I know that those two are worthy of that kind of reliance - both are probably top 10 National Player of the Year candidates right now - but a bad game from either of them probably dooms them.
11. Georgetown Hoyas. Georgetown certainly wasn't supposed to be here after losing three starters from last year's team, but Henry Sims has really stepped up in his senior year (tripled his scoring and doubled or nearly doubled everything else) and they've gotten major contributions from some unheralded freshmen and have ridden their defense to a surprising 18-4 record. And that's really all I got, because watching a Georgetown game makes me sleepy.
12. Michigan State Spartans. I could be wrong, but I think this might be one of Izzo's best teams. Sure, they've lost a couple road games in the Big Ten but that's to be expected. Don't forget after they lost to UNC and Duke to open the season they went on a 15-game winning streak which included wins over Florida State and Gonzaga, as well as Indiana and Wisconsin if you're impressed by that sort of thing. The emergence in the second part of the season of Keith Appling has taken a lot of pressure off Draymond Green who is a lot better when he can concentrate on rebounding and facilitating the offense and let his points come naturally rather than having to carry the full offensive load. Looking at this group and with Izzo's March history they could be a Final Four team with the right draw.
13. St. Mary's Gaels. I didn't even realize St. Mary's was all that good this year, but the whitey whitersons are 11-0 in the WCC (and don't forget, BYU is here now too) and are 6-2 against the RPI Top 100. And Matthew Dellavedova doesn't just have one of the coolest names and sexiest hair in the NCAA, he's one of the best all-around guards as well. I really need to catch one of their games this year before the tournament (maybe the Bracket Busters game against Murray State) so I can really evaluate them but it's clear they can light it up, and that always makes 'em dangerous.
14. San Diego State Aztecs. Even more surprising than G-Town being ranked highly is SDSU being up here because they lost almost everything from last year's team and it was looking like it'd be another case of a mid-major having everything come together and then crashing down after graduations/early defections, but Jamaal Franklin has gone from bit player to superstar, while Chase Tapley has gone from afterthought to star and SDSU is 6-1 in a tough Mountain West and already has wins over the other two major players in UNLV and New Mexico. Next week is a monster because they play the Rebels Saturday and New Mexico the following Wednesday so if they handle that it may be time to start looking at them as a legit Final Four contender.
15. Creighton Blue Jays. These guys are really annoying because everyone is slobbering all over them, but what I see is a terrible defensive team playing in a way down Missouri Valley whose only significant non-conference win is over the aforementioned SDSU. They're going to be somewhere in that 4-7 range for a seed and I have a feeling they're going to end up being a pretty trendy Sweet 16 pick (or more). It could happen, because they do have a player of the year candidate who could carry them in Doug McDermott and they can really shoot the lights out, but if they end up going against a 13-10 seed who can score with them they could be a first round casualty - Iona or Oral Roberts would be a terrible matchup for them.
So that's part 1. I was going to do it all at once but then I got about 8 teams deep and I was all like oh god this is a lot of teams. So I'm cutting her off at 15 for now. I might do the next 10 (+ some notables who received votes) tomorrow night but I might go out to the bar instead. Hell, I might be do both because I'm just crazy like that.
Also on the numbers me, Snacks, and Old Man split we had 8-7 for the Super Bowl so if Bradshaw doesn't score and the Giants instead kick a field goal two win 18-17 we would have won BOATLOADS divided by three. But alas, I sit here. Still poor.
1. Kentucky Wildcats. I think there are four teams this year that are head and shoulders above everybody else in terms of pure talent (Kentucky, Missouri, Baylor, and UNC) but Kentucky is head and shoulders above the other three who are head and shoulders above the rest and they're playing up to their talent this year. Only loss is that 1-pointer at Indiana, and they've won 8 of their last 10 by at least double digits. You're always at risk in the tournament with a young team and a coach who is 95% recruiter/5% game coach, but Doron Lamb, Terrence Jones, and Darius Miller have been there before and can give you some leadership where Calipari fails. They also only go 6.5 deep even with all the blowouts so that's a concern (and I have no idea why Cal isn't giving more run to some other guys in these big wins to help hedge against possible foul trouble in a tournament game when you need someone to step in). Plenty of worries here, but I'm going to have an awfully hard time picking anybody else as my national champion come bracket fill-out time.
2. Syracuse Orange. I didn't list the Cuse as one of those top-4 talented teams this year but that's no slight to them because I think they do the best job of playing as an overall "team" (along with Mizzou). Now that the Fab Melo situation has been figured out they've got a rare mix of players where they can dominate you in the paint, on the perimeter, or slashing to the hole and with their athlete's this year Boeheim's zone might be one of his best ever. Opponent's do kill them on the offensive boards which can spell doom in a tight one, and I'm having trouble buying them completely because they lack any single win you can point to and say "holy shit Cuse is the goods", but they aren't 23-1 by accident. Probably the one top team where I'm just not quite sure what to think.
3. Ohio State Buckeyes. Ohio State is a team I think is flying a little bit under the radar right now, as much as that's possible for a team ranked third in the country. They beat Wisconsin this weekend in a slow-it-down, plodding game and just a couple of weeks ago beat Indiana in a more uptempo game. Their ability to win without having to dictate the pace of the game is a huge positive, not to mention that in William Buford and Jared Sullinger they have what might be the best inside-outside scoring duo in the country right now. They're a bit suspect from a big man stand point outside of Sullinger and, as usual, don't have much depth, but unless DeShaun Thomas shoots them right out of a game they have a great chance at another Final Four berth.
4. Missouri Tigers. One of the only teams I consider both supremely talented and supremely "team-y" for lack of a better term, Mizzou would be my clear pick to take the whole thing in March if it wasn't for damn Kentucky. The Tigers have a reputation as a high-scoring, fast-paced team and they are high-scoring, but they score a ton of points not because they play so fast (105th in the country in tempo) but because they're so efficient (#1 in offensive efficiency). Simply put, they make a lot of shots (#2 in the country in effective FG%) and they take a lot of shots because they rarely turn the ball over (#4 in the country) - thus they score a ton of points and force you to keep up. They have the best back court in the nation and although they look a little weak on the front line since they only really have one true forward in Ricardo Ratliffe, their win going into Baylor and taking on maybe the best front court in college tells me everything I know - it's either going to be Missouri or Kentucky cutting down the nets at the end.
5. North Carolina Tar Heels. Probably the second most talented team in the NCAA behind Kentucky, but they seem to missing every single intangible quality possible - nothing new for a Roy Williams led team. There's no leadership, no hustle, no killer instinct, and no drive. I know they only have three losses, but in two of those they were absolutely crushed (by UNLV and Florida State). And really, outside of the season opening win against Michigan State on a boat do they have a really good win? Wisconsin is overrated, Texas is terrible, and although Long Beach is a very good mid-major that's still all they are. I can't really guarantee an early exit because there is so much talent here, but Harrison Barnes, Kendall Marshall, and Tyler Zeller are all quite types who are looking for someone to follow - one of them needs to become THE guy or we're looking at a non-sweet 16 team here.
6. Baylor Bears. I have a feeling this is going to be the trendy pick for the Final Four (say they're a two seed) to come out of whatever region they end up in and it's tough to argue with - their two losses have been to Missouri and Kansas and that's it. One underrated aspect of Baylor is they are one of the best free throw shooting teams in the country at 74.2% (35th in the nation) and that's helped them win a lot of close ones (six wins over major conference foes of 5 pts or fewer) and could be a difference maker in March. The big worry is although Pierre Jackson has helped them out with the ball-handling this year Baylor is still one of the worst teams in the country in turning the ball over, and as we know one bad game and you're done.
7. Florida Gators. I still think Florida is a Final Four contender because they have such a good back court, but neither Patric Young nor Erik Murphy has become a consistent inside force and that's what they'll need to make a run because despite being perimeter oriented they aren't very good defensively. Erving Walker has settled down and become less chucker and more distributor and he's really allowed Boynton and Beal to flourish. I would love to see a Florida/Missouri match-up - the over/under would be about 170.
8. Murray State Racers. Please. They've played nobody, and I mean nobody. Their strength of schedule is 251, and non-conference it's 119. The only teams they've played that are "real" teams are Memphis (won by 4), Southern Miss (won in double OT), and Dayton (won by 17) and there's a good chance non of them make the NCAA Tournament, which would make Murray State 0-0 against NCAA Tournament teams. It's a cute team and a cute story, but not only have they not played anyone they aren't even beating the bad teams all that convincingly. They shoot over 40% from three so you can't completely write them off, but I have a pretty strong feeling they're a first game loss.
9. Duke Blue Devils. Same year same basic soft Duke team where all you really need is a strong inside dude who can push their finesse big guys around and some guards who can get said big man the ball as well as defend the three. It's why they lost to Florida State and why they lost to Miami on Sunday. Mike Kryzkyzkewski loves pansies - it's true.
SIDE BAR: I just finished up reading this book - The Last Great Game by Gene Wojciechowski who, to the best of my knowledge, is not related to that little Duke wiener, and I rather enjoyed it despite half the book being about Duke. That might have been the best part, because it basically proved that Christian Laettner really was an asshole, Bobby Hurley really was a whiner, and that Duke team was one of the least likeable teams in the history of history. The Kentucky half of the book is even better, since I was young enough at that time I didn't really realize how crazy it was that UK was even in that position considering the massive sanctions they were under in the few years prior. To get Pitino from the NBA, keep several of their recruits from fleeing despite the team being banned from the postseason, and for Pitino to get a recruit the caliber of Jamal Mashburn despite him knowing he couldn't play in the tournament is all just crazy. And Wojo (this one, not the annoying little rat) either has really old notes or a lot of these guys have incredible memories, because he paints a very vivid and detailed picture. Really, if you dig on college hoops books - as I do - I put this right up there with Feinstein's best work.
10. Kansas Jayhawks. The Jayhawks are interesting because even though I'm not necessarily impressed with them so far this year, they are the only team other than Kentucky who ranks in the top 10 in Ken Pomeroy's both offensive and defensive efficiency ratings. Maybe I should be, but I always worry about team's that are so reliant on two players (Thomas Robinson and Tyshawn Taylor use a combined nearly 60% of KU's possessions). I know that those two are worthy of that kind of reliance - both are probably top 10 National Player of the Year candidates right now - but a bad game from either of them probably dooms them.
11. Georgetown Hoyas. Georgetown certainly wasn't supposed to be here after losing three starters from last year's team, but Henry Sims has really stepped up in his senior year (tripled his scoring and doubled or nearly doubled everything else) and they've gotten major contributions from some unheralded freshmen and have ridden their defense to a surprising 18-4 record. And that's really all I got, because watching a Georgetown game makes me sleepy.
12. Michigan State Spartans. I could be wrong, but I think this might be one of Izzo's best teams. Sure, they've lost a couple road games in the Big Ten but that's to be expected. Don't forget after they lost to UNC and Duke to open the season they went on a 15-game winning streak which included wins over Florida State and Gonzaga, as well as Indiana and Wisconsin if you're impressed by that sort of thing. The emergence in the second part of the season of Keith Appling has taken a lot of pressure off Draymond Green who is a lot better when he can concentrate on rebounding and facilitating the offense and let his points come naturally rather than having to carry the full offensive load. Looking at this group and with Izzo's March history they could be a Final Four team with the right draw.
13. St. Mary's Gaels. I didn't even realize St. Mary's was all that good this year, but the whitey whitersons are 11-0 in the WCC (and don't forget, BYU is here now too) and are 6-2 against the RPI Top 100. And Matthew Dellavedova doesn't just have one of the coolest names and sexiest hair in the NCAA, he's one of the best all-around guards as well. I really need to catch one of their games this year before the tournament (maybe the Bracket Busters game against Murray State) so I can really evaluate them but it's clear they can light it up, and that always makes 'em dangerous.
14. San Diego State Aztecs. Even more surprising than G-Town being ranked highly is SDSU being up here because they lost almost everything from last year's team and it was looking like it'd be another case of a mid-major having everything come together and then crashing down after graduations/early defections, but Jamaal Franklin has gone from bit player to superstar, while Chase Tapley has gone from afterthought to star and SDSU is 6-1 in a tough Mountain West and already has wins over the other two major players in UNLV and New Mexico. Next week is a monster because they play the Rebels Saturday and New Mexico the following Wednesday so if they handle that it may be time to start looking at them as a legit Final Four contender.
15. Creighton Blue Jays. These guys are really annoying because everyone is slobbering all over them, but what I see is a terrible defensive team playing in a way down Missouri Valley whose only significant non-conference win is over the aforementioned SDSU. They're going to be somewhere in that 4-7 range for a seed and I have a feeling they're going to end up being a pretty trendy Sweet 16 pick (or more). It could happen, because they do have a player of the year candidate who could carry them in Doug McDermott and they can really shoot the lights out, but if they end up going against a 13-10 seed who can score with them they could be a first round casualty - Iona or Oral Roberts would be a terrible matchup for them.
So that's part 1. I was going to do it all at once but then I got about 8 teams deep and I was all like oh god this is a lot of teams. So I'm cutting her off at 15 for now. I might do the next 10 (+ some notables who received votes) tomorrow night but I might go out to the bar instead. Hell, I might be do both because I'm just crazy like that.
Also on the numbers me, Snacks, and Old Man split we had 8-7 for the Super Bowl so if Bradshaw doesn't score and the Giants instead kick a field goal two win 18-17 we would have won BOATLOADS divided by three. But alas, I sit here. Still poor.
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