Gophers vs. Huskers Preview + Wednesday Tournaments

The Gophers play Nebraska in Lincoln, and although some of the pressure has been alleviated by the wins over Indiana and Penn State, which locked the Gophers into the NCAA Tournament, they can still close strong and get maybe as high as a 3 seed, or crash and end up around a 10.  My hope is they get to a six to avoid the 1-2 seed in the second round if they advance, and I think two more wins would do it - whether the last two regular season games or one of them and a B10 tournament win - so this is still a pretty important game.

Since the last time the Gophers played Nebraska the Huskers have gone 2-5 with the two wins home games vs. Iowa and Penn State.  In that time they've also played Ohio State and Michigan State at home, losing both by less than ten (7 and 9) so they're not exactly a juggernaut, but road games in the Big 10 are never easy even if Nebraska doesn't really have any impressive home upsets to point to.

Overall Nebraska is a pretty terrible team.  They don't do anything particularly well other than take care of the basketball, are thoroughly mediocre on defense, and area terrible shooting team.  You remember when the Gophers smoked them at Williams, right?  The talent disparity between the two teams is glaring, and the only thing that kept Nebraska at all in the game (and the Gophers won by 19) was Ray Gallegos going coo-coo from three and scoring 30 points.  Could that happen again but like, way more dramatic?  I suppose, but Gallegos has only scored more than 11 points once in the seven games since then, everyone else on Nebraska sucks, and the Gophers look like they've finally figured things out again.  If you're going to have a lull like the Gophers did, have it in the middle of the season, not the end.  I choose to believe they're back.

Minnesota 70, Nebraska 53

Now on to Wednesday's tournaments.  

ATLANTIC SUN
Another pretty terrible conference like the Big South, but the one thing the A-Sun has going for it is two dominant teams in Mercer and Florida Gulf Coast who are both in the top two in the conference in both offensive and defensive efficiency.  When you're dealing with a low major you can forget about having a balanced, deep league and you just have to hope you have a squad or two that is good enough to grab some name recognition by beating, or at least scaring, its first round NCAA foe.  Both these teams have a least a chance.
FAVORITE:  Mercer.  The Bears take the one seed by a game over FGC, but I'm not sure they're the better team.  The Bears have a nice non-conference win over Florida State, but FGC beat Miami.  Both come in hot with Mercer finishing out at 9-1 and the Eagles at 9-2, and the Eagles won their last meeting last week by 3.  This is one of those conference tournaments where if the favorites win out and Mercer meets FGC in the Final it will be worth your time to watch.  Probably. 
SLEEPER:  North Florida.  Well, probably not, but they do have Will Wilson, who you may remember as the point guard who never ever ever scores.  You will be happy to know that Wilson, who played 31.5 minutes per game this year, upped his scoring average to 3.6 per game, a career high, while upping his assists to 6.1 per game.  His total points this season were 112, nearly doubling his career point total which stood at 121 coming into the year.  And he did, in fact, finally break double figures in a game this year notching 13 against Jacksonville so congratulations.  Will Wilson, we salute you.
W's PICK:  Florida Gulf Coast.  The Eagles are just more tested, having played four tournament teams this year (Miami, Duke, Iowa State, VCU) while Mercer has just New Mexico.  Granted that all happened a long time ago and is pretty much irrelevant, but like I said, it's awfully tough to separate these teams.

PATRIOT LEAGUE
I know you're thinking whoopity-doo another terrible conference and you're right, but you're also sort of wrong too.  This might be the best version of the Patriot League I can recall (although they're still ranked as just the 17th best conference by kenpom).   Bucknell and Lehigh are top 100 teams with two others in the 100s and only Navy falling past #300.  Might not sound like much, but it's a step in the right direction and you can see the difference finally allowing athletic scholarships can make.
FAVORITE:  Bucknell.  Unfortunately C.J. McCollum broke his foot in a game against VCU this winter (a game Lehigh lost by only four) so the Bison won the league crown and the #1 seed.  That's not a slam on Bucknell, who are a very good team with wins over Purdue and LaSalle this season, it's just a bummer because most of the Lehigh team that beat Duke was back this year and McCollum is an amazing player.  Even so, Bucknell's Mike Muscala is a stud as well who averaged a double-double while leading the conference in scoring and rebounding, and if the Bison get through they're absolutely a threat to steal a win in the tournament.
SLEEPER:  Army.  The Black Knights play at a pace considerably fast than anyone else in the Patriot and do so while shooting, and making, a ton of three pointers.  That's the kind of team I like for a sleeper.
W's PICK:  Bucknell.  If McCollum returns from injury (even as of 3 days ago, the most recent article I could find, things are still up in the air) things get more interesting, but if he doesn't I expect Bucknell to run the table pretty easily.

OHIO VALLEY
Belmont moving in to the OVC was supposed to create a two-headed monster at the top of the conference with the Bruins and Murray State.  The only problem was the Racers didn't hold up their end of the bargain, whiffing on their only real out of conference chance to get a big win against Colorado (and what a horrible schedule they put together) and going just 10-6 in conference.  Belmont still has an outside chance at an at-large given good computer numbers and a 14-2 conference record but it's an outside shot at best and the OVC will most likely remain a one-bid league.
FAVORITE:  Belmont.  These guys have been relevant long enough that I can even tell you their two best players without looking it up - Ian Clark and Kerron Johnson - a pair of senior guards who have been this team's leaders forever.  Their are three other upperclassmen starters as well and those five play the majority of the team's minutes and basically score all their points.  They've been in the last two NCAA Tournaments but haven't broken through for a win yet.  With that experience now could this be the year.
SLEEPER:  Eastern Kentucky.  Given Murray State's rough year and not even ranking in kenpom's Top 25 they might be a more appropriate sleeper than EKU - the team that finished with the second best record in the league and only team in the top 2 in both O and D efficiency in the OVC - but I'm pretty sure Murray is still the sexier pick since the media has bludgeoned us all over the head with them for years.  The Colonels create a ton of turnovers but don't defend all that well, which is generally death to teams who play the Bruins.  Still, they've probably got the best shot to knock them off.
W's PICK:  Belmont.  I feel like I'm picking a lot of favorites, but that's kind of how it works in these conferences. Also, to answer my earlier rhetorical question, no it's not the year.  Belmont won't win an NCAA Tournament game again.

 


WEST COAST CONFERENCE
A pretty uninteresting conference tournament but in an interesting way.  There are two possible NCAA teams here:  Gonzaga (locked in, possible #1 seed) and St. Mary's (right on the bubble).  What St. Mary's could really use is another quality win, but the only way to get one at this point in the WCC is to beat Gonzaga.  However, because of their seeds, beating Gonzaga is only possible in the WCC Tournament Final, which would put the Gaels in automatically.  So either St. Mary's wins their way in, or they've already done enough to get the invite.  Uninteresting in an interesting way, which is what I said if you had been paying attention.
FAVORITE:  Gonzaga.  Although the WCC is far better than a lot of other conferences I have or will be previewing (ranking 10th) there might not be a more prohibitive favorite in any conference than Gonzaga.  The Zags are in line for a possible #1 seed, are 16-0 in conference play, and rank as the #4 team in the country according to kenpom.  Sure, St. Mary's (rank #19), BYU (#71), and Santa Clara (#87) are quality teams with their eyes on the upset, but Gonzaga has crushed all three of these teams this year.
SLEEPER:  San Francisco.  It's not easy to pick a sleeper here when the top four just beat up on each other and killed everyone else (between the four good teams only three of their losses came to other teams) so I'll go with the team that picked up one of those (over BYU) and has an interesting statistical profile.  The Dons, who are coached by Rex Walters which feels relevant for some reason, hit 40.2% of their three pointers this year, good for 9th best in the nation.  So that's something.  Although the way the WCC sets things up it's almost guaranteed to be either Gonzaga or St. Mary's coming out of here.
W's PICK:  St. Mary's.  This isn't an indictment of Gonzaga, because I do think they're a Final Four contender who deserves a one seed, but St. Mary's is going to be playing as if their lives depend on it in this game - and their tournament lives very well might.  I think they're flying under the radar a bit, especially since Gonzaga swept them, and I don't want to have to stop watching Matthew Dellavedova yet.  If loving that floppy haired little muppet is wrong I don't want to be right.

NORTHEASTERN CONFERENCE
You want to talk about a conference only a mother could love, let's go with the NEC.  They're consistently ranked in the bottom quartile for conference strength, and if you look at the list of teams I don't know that they've ever even been close in an NCAA Tournament game, much less won one.  There are a handful of other conferences who can never rise out of the bottom of the barrel as a whole, but outside of the SWAC I can recall each one of those conferences at least being competitive with many of them actually winning games here and there.  Not so the NEC.  Where have you gone, Charles Jones?
FAVORITE:  Robert Morris.  The closest thing the NEC puts out as a power program, the Colonials have missed the NCAA Tournament each of the last two seasons despite winning at least 12 conference games each year and advancing to the NEC Tournament Championship game.  Both years they lost to LIU-Brooklyn, which is once again a viable scenario this season.  Also researching that led me to the box score that reminded me that Robert Morris took Villanova to overtime as a 15 seed three years ago which just goes to show that I don't know what the hell I'm talking about.
SLEEPER:  Bryant.  "Who?" is what your asking and I don't blame you.  As far back as 2008 Bryant was still in D-II before starting to transition to Division I.  Four terrible years later (20 total wins including 2 last year) here are the Bulldogs in their first season eligible for the NCAA Tournament and sitting at 12-6 in the conference (good for a number 2 seed).  Cool story, bro.
W's PICK:  Bryant.  It's too good of a story, although if they do make it and it gets crammed down our throats like everything else ESPN latches on too I'm going to regret rooting for this to happen.  The Bulldogs aren't just a novelty - they rank #1 in the NEC in offensive efficiency and have two 17+ ppg scorers who cover you on the perimeter and in the paint with three other 9+ point scorers.  They probably play too crappy on the defensive side to threaten anybody in the NCAA Tournament but as far as the NEC goes?  It's in play.  Sorry Robert Morris, maybe fourth time is the charm?

As far as Tuesday's results, Arkansas - a pretty big longshot as it stood - got crushed by Missouri which should take them out of the running for an at-large.  Southern Miss lost by just four to Marshall, but that pretty much kilt them as well.  Notre Dame probably sealed it with a win over St. Johns, while Iowa kept the dream alive by beating Illinois (who is probably safe either way).  In the big elimination game between Ole Miss and Alabama the Rebels took care of business, beating Bama by four in a game they basically controlled from the tip so they're still alive, while Memphis locked up their bid, if they hadn't already, by taking down UTEP on the road.  Meanwhile Boise State looked every bit a tournament team at UNLV, but because they didn't get the win they remain an absolutely difficult read. Just looking at season results and eye test they seem legit, but are about as hard on the bubble as possible.  Interesting team to watch.

Wednesday's action features a nice mix of teams who really could use a big win -  Villanova (vs. Georgetown), Iowa State (vs. Oklahoma State), Maryland (vs. UNC) - can lock up a bid with a win - Oklahoma (@ WVU), Cal (vs. Stanford), San Diego State (vs. Air Force), Minnesota (@ Nebraska) - and team's on shaky ground who can't afford a loss to an inferior opponent - Temple (@ Fordham), LaSalle (vs. G. Washington), and VCU (vs. Richmond).  In other words, there's a ton going on that could shift a whole bunch of teams a whole bunch of lines.  Should be fun night.  I'll spend it watching the Gophers instead.

DWG College Basketball Preview: Teams #46-39

Man weather is such a dick.  The Cards/Giants are still sitting there, like 3 hours after their delay started, waiting to resume play in the 8th and the Yanks/Tigers has been postponed now until tomorrow.  Sucks.  So here's something else that's a thing you could do:

46.  Detroit Titans.  Ray McCallum is still there.  Three years ago two big-time recruits signed with smaller schools to play for their dads.  One (Trey Ziegler at CMU) saw his father fired after two dismal seasons and bolted to Pitt, the other is McCallum and after advancing to the NCAA Tournament by winning the Horizon tournament last year the Titans are looking to do even more.  There are some notable losses, particularly size-wise in Eli Holman, but there are a couple of senior forwards capable of putting up good numbers who should help balance things with McCallum.  Plus they got Juwon Howard, Jr. this year.  Juwon Howard Junior!  Hell yeah!

45.  Tennessee Volunteers.  Bruce Pearl left Tennessee looking like a mess, but behind some solid leadership from Cuonzo Martin (CUONZO!) they actually had a pretty solid year last season (NIT berth) and now return almost the entire team for another go at it.  And guys, their PF Jeronne Maymon is just a monster, and out of nowhere, too.  He was nothing, and then he just exploded into a guy who had double figure points or rebounds (or both) in the Vols last 15 games last year and put up double doubles against three of the teams toughest opponents last season (Kentucky, Memphis, and Duke) including a 32 point, 20 rebound performance against Memphis.  He's very Mbakwellian on the glass, just attacking every rebound as if his very life, nay, the fate of the planet, rested on him getting that ball.  Tennessee was always able to recruit under Pearl but he was such as shitty coach they were chronically underachieved.  Martin is a far better coach, and if he continues to get the same caliber of players to come to Tennessee this team is going to be a major player going forward. 

44.  UCONN Huskies.  UCONN can't play in the postseason this year because of I don't know grades or some dumb arbitrary NCAA rule that punishes players who had nothing to do with the infraction, and as a result of that had to watch Alex Oriakhi and Roscoe Smith bolt to Missouri and UNLV respectively (along with Andre Drummond and Jeremy Lamb to the NBA) and will be going with a new coach in Kevin Ollie, but there's still plenty of talent here to screw over at least a Big East team or two's at-large hopes with some big wins.  That is, of course, if DeAndre Daniels can become what he was supposed to become.  Daniels was a top-10 recruit last season who chose UCONN over Kentucky, Florida, Duke, and Kansas but ended up buried on the bench much of last season.  If he can blossom with a bigger role and mesh with outstanding guard tandem Ryan Boatright and Shabazz Napier the Huskies could be awfully good.  Of course without cheater Calhoun who knows how this all shakes out.  They could win four games and I wouldn't be surprised.

43.  Davidson Wildcats.  Davidson is a little bit annoying to me in their consistency, but here they are, back again, heavy favorites to win the SoCon and just good enough to scare or beat a team or two once they inevitably get to the NCAA Tournament as an 11 seed.  Pretty much the entire team returns from last season when they put a scare in Louisville in the first round of the NCAA Tournament, but what's interesting about this iteration of the Wildcats is rather than being overly dependent on guards and 3-pointers, their two best players are a pair of forwards (including the SoCon Player of the Year and the other guy might actually be better) who can hit it, but don't need to.  They leave that to the 200 guards Davidson has running around.  Again.

42.  Harvard Crimson.  Well Tommy Amaker's got a nice little thing going here.  In 2010 they made the CIT.  In 2011, the NIT after tying for the Ivy League crown and losing in a one game playoff.  Then last year they won the Ivy to make the NCAA Tournament, losing to fifth-seeded Vanderbilt by nine (yes, I picked Harvard).  They do lose last year's Ivy League Player of the Year, but have everybody else back and Nevermind somehow I missed that Harvard has a bunch of guys embroiled in an academic scandal including their best player and both co-captains who are no longer on the team so drop these guys off the list, bump everyone up one, and throw Northwestern at the end or something.  Gotta have some nerds, somehow.

41.  Florida State Seminoles.  Maybe I'm way off on FSU because they are 24th in the first Coaches' Poll that just came out, but I'm not seeing it.  Losing four starters including your entire inside presence in Bernard James and Xavier Gibson is, like sticking a paperclip into a power outlet, no picnic.  Yeah, they still have Michael Snaer and you know they'll be tenacious on defense and won't back down, but you know who else is tenacious and never backs down?  My two-year old, and by the end of most days he's either run into a wall face first or fallen off some random piece of furniture and landed on his head.  Every once in a while, however, he'll get a big win by throwing a matchbox car and hitting Mrs. W right in the face. 

40.  Murray State Racers.  Things could be a bit tougher for the Racers this year, what with losing three starters and having to deal with Belmont's move to the OVC, but Murray State has developed a "Gonzaga-lite" reputation for a reason.  They have a whole bunch of experienced seniors and generally play a deep bench so even if these guys don't have impressive stats you can bet they can play, and Murray State keeps bringing in solid recruiting classes to keep that pipeline going as well.  Not to mention they still have Isaiah Canaan who led them to the tournament last year, winning the OVC Player of the Year Award, and then promptly sucked (8-30 in two NCAA Tourney games).  Now a senior, Canaan should be able to do more assuming they get to that point again, because everyone knows that noted chokers always get better over time, right A-Rod?

39.  St. Joe's Hawks.  I actually feel like I might be underrating these guys a bit, because this team kind of has that feeling of building something that might be cresting this season.  Last season the Hawks won 20 games (9 in A-10 play) and snagged an NIT berth, not bad considering the two previous years they won 22 games combined.  Carl Jones, C.J. Aiken, and Langston Galloway (who you remember from such games as against the Gophers two straight years) are now in their third year playing together with Aiken growing into a force in the paint, Galloway developing into a dead-eye shooter from the wing, and Jones, well, he's pretty much the same chucker he's always been since he arrived in Philly and maybe these guys will be even better when he's gone next season (the other two are juniors) but whatever.  St. Joe's' has been crappy since Jameer Nelson and Delonte West left and now they have hope.  Can't you just let them have hope with their cheesesteaks?


Previous:
Teams #68-60
Teams #59-53
Teams #52-47

Week in Review: 2-20-2012

 Jesus what a completely pathetic defensive effort.  You name it, the Gophers did or didn't do it.  They didn't close out on shooters.  They got confused on their defensive scheme which led to not switching when they were supposed to and open lay-ups for Northwestern.  The continually went under screens instead of over the top and then made no real strong effort to get in a shooters face.  They got lost on back cuts.  They allowed offensive rebounds like candy, including on missed free throws which should be grounds for a lawsuit in some way I don't know I'm not a lawyer.  A five foot nothin' lesbian ball boy was able to get to the rim at will.  Just a completely putrid effort.  Combine that with an offense that seemed confused in the second half and completely went away from what worked in the first game and the half (can anyone actually tell me why they completely quit going inside when it's the whole reason they won the first game?).  Credit Northwestern with playing better defense and knocking down all those wide open shots, but this was a truly terrible game by the Gophers.  Now they need to win 2 of the next three (Michigan State, Indiana, @Wisconsin).  LOL.  Can't wait for baseball!


WHO WAS AWESOME

1.  Murray State Racers.  I've gone on record here as saying I'm not remotely a believer in Murray State, but after they waxed St. Mary's with ease in their Bracket Busters game on Saturday I've definitely seen a bit of a tick in the "I believe" direction on my "Do I believe in Murray State"-inator which I always wear on my wrist.  They just completely dominated the game from beginning to end, and St. Mary's is a very good team.  They did turn it over 15 times, but overcame that by shooting the lights out and winning by 14.  I can't quite throw my support behind them yet as being for real and I'd love to see them play one more good team to get a real sense of how good they are, but sadly they won't play another good team until the tournament.  The tournament which, by the way, they are an absolute lock for now no matter what else happens. 

2.  Other Bracket Buster winners.  Besides Murray State some other teams picked up very big wins this weekend.  Wichita State moves into lock territory after knocking off Davidson, while VCU (beat Northern Iowa), Drexel (crushed Cleveland State on the road), George Mason (over Lamar), Weber State (over UT-Arlington) and Iona (beat Nevada) all jump up from "probably not" to "we better take a look" status thanks to their wins.  Their were some huge wins outside of Bracket Busters as well, and probably none bigger than Kansas State's win over Baylor which is absolutely a monster for their profile.  Middle Tennessee State continued to roll through the the Sun Belt (they can afford zero losses prior to the Sun Belt Championship game), while South Florida has now moved to 10-4 in the Big East after an easy win at Pitt.  The overall profile is still a bit lacking but you can't ignore them anymore.  And finally, although they're not in consideration for an at-large, Loyola Marymount had a huge week, beating St. Mary's and then winning their Bracket Buster match-up against Valpo and that now gives them three wins over RPI Top 50 teams.  Which is pretty much their entire resume, so yeah.  Oh, and Harvard beat Yale, so that was good too.

3.  Oakland A's.  When I first saw the news that the A's had signed Yoenis Cespedes, the cuban defecting outfielder and supposed superstar, I was just stunned and was wondering what the hell Billy Beane was doing.  I mean, a team that basically just gutted it's entire roster outbidding everyone else to get a Cuban dude who has never faced major league quality pitching?  Bizarre.  But when I really stopped to think, it actually makes a lot of sense and is a worthwhile gamble.  They got him for 4 years/$36 million which is far less than it was originally thought he'd sign for ($50 mill+), and because of their situation they don't need him to come in a play right away and he can take some time in the minors to assimilate himself.  The A's suck now, but are primed to be a contender in a couple of years thanks to a farm system Keith Law ranked as the 9th best in baseball (and that was before this signing) with five guys in Law's Top 100 including three pitchers who project as top of the rotation type guys.  Add some hitters, like Cespedes, and Oakland becomes a contender.  And seriously, would you rather have Cespedes and his potential at $9 million per year, or Cuddyer at $10+?  Cespedes is basically a bargain - a gamble, but a bargain.

4.  New Mexico.  I'm not entirely certain if a team has EVER had as good a week as the Lobos just did.  There are two teams considered as "elite" in the MWC - San Diego State and UNLV.  New Mexico, due to a couple of shitty early season losses (to New Mex State and Santa Clara) and losses to both those teams, was considered a step below.  Well no more, because this week alone the Lobos beat SDSU at their place by 10 and then stomped UNLV at home by 20 to lock up a bid to the NCAA Tournament and assure the Mountain West will be sending three teams (at least) once again.  They're awfully good, and have a great point guard who can control the game in Kendall Williams, plus a star in Drew Gordon (finally) who put up 27 & 20 against the Rebels.  Hopefully they don't run the table and then win the MWC Tournament, because I want them to have a lower seed for sleeper potential.  

5.  Tyus Jones.  Jones scored 45 points in a game against some team earlier this week to go along with 7 assists, 7 steals, and 7 rebounds.  He also received a scholarship offer from Duke.  That now means the Gophers are competing against not only Ohio State and Michigan State but now the freakin' Blue Devils, and Jones has zero interest in staying home and the Gophers' continual mediocrity isn't going to win him over any time soon.  If you still believe Jones may end up a Gopher, just remember Naadir Tharpe who looked like he was all set to join the Gophers before Kansas suddenly swooped in out of nowhere with an offer which Tharpe accepted within the week.  The Gophers, at present, simply cannot compete for that type of player, and when that player is from here and they still can't get him it just reinforces how big of a wasteland the program is right now.  Man do I miss Clem.  Sure he cheated, but at least he made the team relevant.  I'd kill for relevancy.  I'm going to light matches and see how long I can hold my finger in the flame, just so I can feel something.


WHO SUCKED

1.  Ralph Sampson.  I truly believe this is the last time I'll ever write about Sampson because I think we're pretty much done here.  Whether it's his fault or Tubby's (well, probably both) nothing has changed since Day 1 and I think even his most ardent supporters, yours truly, have realized that he's going to go down with Rick Rickert as the biggest disappointment in team history.  His numbers are virtually unchanged from his freshman year.  He wasn't progressing as much as anybody had hoped, but there was a bit of a progression so you could still hold out hope he would have a monster senior year, and when Mbakwe went down the door was wide open.  Rather than going through, however, Ralph timidly shut it and, with a shrug of the shoulders, said "No thank you." 

He's never shown any drive or any aggressiveness, and never improved in any way (in fact he's regressed in every possible way other than shooting percentage).  He never refined his hook shot, nor added a second move in four years.  Seriously he never added another move.  And, for all his outside shot promise, he never delivered on that either.  I suspect Ralph had the talent, but spent his off seasons not in the gym, but playing nintendo or dominoes or dungeons and dragons or whatever kids do these days.  His downside should have been Sam Perkins, but he never even got there.  This pretty much sums it up.  I'm just pissed I didn't think of it first.

2.  Illinois Fighting Illini.  As disappointing as the Tubby era has been, at least he's not Bruce Weber.  After a pretty rough home loss to Purdue on Wednesday that made four straight defeats and a record of 1-7 in their last 8, Weber gave interviews where he sounded alternately confused (bad look for a coach) and defeated (even worse) and his boss gave an interview where he pretty much went out of his way to say Weber was still his guy.  So, naturally, rather than rallying around their coach and coming out all fired up against Nebraska the Illini did what you'd expect them to do and rolled over like a bunch of two-bit hookers.  I mean they lost to Nebraska by 23 and it wasn't even that close.  The Huskers had walk-ons in with like 3 minutes left in the game.  Brandon Paul shot 1-7 and scored 2 points.  Terrible game, and it's basically guaranteed that Weber is gone after this year.  Illinois has a continual pipeline of talent in Chicago so they'll always be dangerous, so as a Gopher fan I'm very sorry to see Weber go, because with him at the helm you always knew you never had to worry about the Illini. 

3.  Conference USA.  When I did my bubble watch I counted both Southern Miss and Memphis as IN along with a group of other teams with the caveat that none of those teams could handle more than 1 more loss.  Well, C-USA, poised to possibly get more than one team in the dance for the first time since 1998*, just kicked itself square in the balls because both Southern Miss and Memphis - the only two teams in the conference with at-large chances - both lost to bad teams this weekend.  So Miss lost to Houston and their RPI of 220, while Memphis got dropped by UTEP (RPI 149).  If both teams manage to get to the C-USA championship game without another loss I'd expect both to still get in.  But if either picks up another loss things are going to be very dicey.  I was feel bad for C-USA.  It was formed to compete with the big boys and was competitive for a bit, but then was completely raided, is now losing Memphis, and will dissolve and form with the leftovers from the Mountain West and is going to be just completely brutal.  Don't forget, Cincinnati, Marquette, and Louisville all used to be C-USA schools, and now the jewel will be what, Marshall?  UTEP?  Gross.  This is like being the black sheep of your family and then quitting your shitty job to join a cult.  And not one of the good ones either, more like one that forbids group sex (which I assume is the only reason anyone joins a cult). 

4.  Mississippi State Tigers.  Remember like, not all that long ago when Mississippi State was 6-3 in SEC play and had a non-conference win over West Virginia (RPI 37) and no bad (RPI sub-100) losses and everything was hunky dorey?  Well a three game losing streak has included losses to Auburn (RPI 123) and Georgia (RPI 107) and they're now 6-3 and in a wee spot of trouble.  They have four games left before the SEC Tournament and one is home against Kentucky and another is on the road at Alabama (which is a very tough game if their dudes are reinstated).  And it's sad because any team with Dee Bost, Arnett Moultrie, Rodney Hood, and Renardo Sidney should coast to a bid - I mean there's a reason this team was ranked 15th at one point this year.  Although Sidney is still way fat and his game has taken a pretty significant step backwards this year, so that doesn't help.  Of course, beating Kentucky this week will solve all ills.

5.  NC State Wolfpack.  This week was a monster of the Wolfpack who were right on the cusp of the bubble and just needed a marquee win or two to push them towards the top, and the opportunities were there with a game at Duke and then a home contest against Florida State.  Everything was looking good as NC State raced out to a 16-point lead at the half and were up 19 with 11 minutes left to play, but then they remembered they aren't supposed to win at Cameron and the refs also must have gotten a little jolt in their brain implanted microchips because Duke ended up winning thanks in part to 16 free throw attempts in the final 10 minutes compared to just seven for NC State and three NC Staters fouled out.  So that sucked, but even worse they let that hangover drift into Saturday's game against FSU and got their doors blown off.  They still have UNC at home this week, but that's their last chance to get a real good win prior to the ACC Tournament.  They're looking like they're a year away, and I say that because their recruiting class next year contains Rivals recruits #6, #23, and #55 and ranks as the fourth best in the country for 2012.  And yet Tubby's class for that year contains two 3-star guys.  It's like impossible to follow college basketball as closely as I do and not get depressed at least three times about the Gophers.


Two additional quick points and then I'll shut-up:

1.  The Gophers weren't the only team who took their NCAA bid hopes and pissed all over them this week.  Other than Illinois, Miss State, NC State, and the C-USA teams mentioned above, you also had Davidson (loss to Wichita) who is now done along with Akron (loss to Oral Roberts), and Nevada (loss to Iona).  Long Beach is still in pretty solid shape as long as there aren't any major slip-ups, but if they had won at Creighton (lost at the buzzer) they would have punched their ticket.  And a few major conference teams, although not killing their chances, hurt them badly including Texas (got smoked by a shitty Oklahoma Stat team) and Arizona (lost to Washington).  That win for Washington moves them to12-3 in the Pac-10, but the conference is so incredibly shitty that doesn't guarantee them a bid, not even a little.  I read somewhere that the Pac-10 overall was something like 2-25 against the RPI Top 50 outside of conference.  That's ridiculous.  So bad it's like Tubby Smith's record against them since coming to the Gophers. lol.

2.  I really like the A.J. Burnett trade for both sides.  The Pirates add a veteran arm who undeniably has some talent to a rotation where almost nobody can name a single starter while not giving up any prospects of particular note while the Yankees pay for most of the contract.  The Yankees get rid of a guy who clearly struggled with both the AL East and the NY spotlight and saved enough in the process to turn around and sign Raul Ibanez - a RH DH they desperately needed.  And Burnett gets out of New York into a non-pressure and no lose situation, not to mention he gets out to the AL (and specifically the AL East) which can only help.  win-win-win.

* = I completely made this up because I didn't feel like actually looking it up

Week in Review - 2/13/2011

There are no word about the Gophers, or at least nothing more than a throwaway line here and there, in the below post.  Mainly because they didn't play this weekend.  I ripped off about 1,200 words after the loss to the dirty dirtball Sconnies, and I don't really feel the need to do it again when nothing has changed.  Plus there was only one comment left after that post where I poured out my heart and thoughts and so you asshole don't deserve any more.  You're lucky I post at all.


WHO WAS AWESOME

1.  Kentucky Wildcats.  I'm now starting to think that worrying about Kentucky being a young team and/or having a less than elite in-game coach doesn't really matter because good god thee guys are just not fair.  What did Kentucky do this week?  Well, they demolished their top contender in the conference by 20 (Florida, more on them later) and then went into Vandy, a pretty tough place to play, and beat the Commodore, probably the third best team in the conference.  They've got unstoppable inside scorers (Anthony Davis, Terrence Jones), three-point shooters (Doron Lamb, Darius Miller), slashers (Jones, Michael Gilchrist), shot blockers (Davis, Jones), and lock down perimeter defenders (Miller, Gilchrist).  Their "weak link" is point guard Marquis Teague, and he'd be the best player on 90% of college teams.  Just sick.  I have no idea how they're going to lose in March.

2.  Austin Rivers.  He's still got too much of a tendency to go one man show, and when he has the ball on the break you know he's taking the shot 80% of the time, but holy crap was Rivers awesome against North Carolina.  29 points with 6 three-pointers and everyone was big, including the game winner right in Tyler Zeller's stupid face.  Reading what some fans of both teams have written and this might be the "best" win by Duke in this rivalry, coming at Chapel Hill versus one of UNC's most talented squads, at least in recent memory.  And they basically did it because Austin Rivers' decided to breakout.  I think going pro after this season will be best for everyone involved because Rivers game is an NBA game and he's struggled trying to adjust playing within the constraints of a tight system rather than, "go get 40 Austin", but man, he is the real deal.

3.  Wichita State Shockers.  I don't usually like to talk about the Missouri Valley on account of it sucks so bad, but Wichita's win over Creighton this weekend was truly a thing of beauty.  See, at the beginning of the year Wichita was supposed to be this year's MVC darling, a team with a shot to knock off some good squads, have a successful conference season, and roll to an easy at-large bid with a chance to make some noise.  Then they lost to both Alabama and Temple in Puerto Rico and everybody was like, meh, while Creighton raced out to a 21-2 start and has everyone's darling Doug McDermott and was like Lindsay Lohan stealing everything Rachel McAdams had.  But then Wichita went to Creighton and completely destroyed the Blue Jays and no Creighton has lost three straight while Wichita can put this win with their win over UNLV and good computer numbers and are probably more likely to make it at-large than Creighton.  So suck on that, Lohan.

4.  St. Louis Billikens.   I'm guessing reading about St. Louis doesn't exactly rank in the top 5 of anybody's favorite things to do list, but it' rare you see a team take care of business like they have and have jumped from the lower-mid bubble to near the top of it.  The Billikens won on the road this week at both St. Joe's and LaSalle, two teams in contention for the Atlantic 10 crown, and now sit at 8-3, just a half game behind Temple, and that followed up a week where they beat St. Bonaventure and Dayton, two other teams towards the top of the A-10.  Their non-conference strength of schedule is awful (213 in the country) but they do have win over Washington, Oklahoma, Boston College, and Villanova - not exactly the 1927 Yankees but a better lineup than the Gophers' can show.  And they're trending up.  Fully expect Majerus to finally be back in the big dance.

5.  Cal Bears.  Ye, the Pac-10 is still horrible and yes, there's a good chance it's a one bid conference, but that's exactly what makes a team actually going out and doing something worthwhile notable because nobody ever does it in this league.  The Bears went on their road trip through Southern California and won at both USC and UCLA (their RPIs are 228 and 121, but remember it's the Pac-10 so we're on a different curve here).  This now brings them to 10-3 and 20-6 overall, and at least getting near the middle of the bubble.  Oh, and in case you're wondering Justin Cobbs had 28 point and 10 assists in those two wins.  (Also noteworthy:  Oregon also was 2-0 this week.  Devoe had 29 points and 7 assists.)  It's so funny I'm going to stab myself in the ankle with the bayonet I have sitting next to the couch.


WHO SUCKED

1.  Florida Gators.  Bit of a rough one for the Gators and those who at one point listed the Gators as a sleeper Final Four team.  First, on Tuesday, the had a big chance to make a statement going into Lexington to play the #1 Kentucky Wildcats and walked out 20-point losers, and then on Saturday they took a home gimme win vs. Tennessee and somehow ended up losing by five.  Actually I shouldn't say somehow, because it's pretty obvious than when a team is as dependent on the three-pointer the way Florida is (6th in the country in % of points coming from behind the line) when the shots aren't falling they're screwed.  The Gators 17-56 from behind the arc in those two games, significantly worse than their season mark of nearly 40%.  And a special shout-out to Erving Walker and Bradley Beal, who, along with Kenny Boynton, are basically the entire team and were 1-11 from 3 against Kentucky and 2-11 against Tennessee.  That reliance on the three makes them both a threat to make a run in March and an early upset candidate.  Guess I'm going to have to guess right.

2.  William Buford.  Buford actually had a pretty good game earlier in the week against Purdue (29 points on 10-17 shooting) which hurt the narrative a bit but he's been absolutely awful lately other than that game, and saved one of his worst for their big loss against Sparty, shooting 2-12 with 3 turnover (to 1 assist) for a grand total of 4 points.  Looking back, outside of that game against Purdue the last time Buford shot 50% or better in a game was the first game of 2012, and he's shot 29-104 in those games, and has had 29 turnover versus 21 assists.  Ohio State is really good and are absolutely a title contender, but if Buford doesn't get it figured out there's no way they're getting past the sweet 16. 

3.  Baylor Bears.  I still like these guys a lot, but after they lost to both Kansas (at home) and Missouri (on the road) this week it might be time to take a harder look.  Because they've now been swept by both those teams, and considering there are only three really good teams in the Big 12 (with apologies to Iowa State) that means that Baylor hasn't had a good win in quite some time.  There's no doubt they're still a very good team with the resume to prove it (wins over Kansas State, Miss State, West Virginia, St. Mary's, BYU, and San Diego State), but there are alarm bells ringing all over the place after those two sweeps.  Worth noting that Perry Jones scored 5 points against Kansas on 1-8 shooting and 4 points on 2-12 shooting against Missouri, which means he's only broken double digit scoring once in four game against these two teams.  I'm going to go ahead and not do anymore research and just assume he's a choker in big games.  Join me, won't you?

4.  The Grammys.  I'm thrilled they chose to award the Foo Fighters with basically every award they were up for, but I can't forgive them for slighting Wiz Khalifa for best rap performance and song.  You're seriously going to give the Grammy to Jay-Z and "Mail it in" Kanye for Otis over the masterpiece Black & Yellow from Wiz and give the other one to some collaboration with like six singer/rappers?  Joke.  I suppose I should just be happy it was nominated, but it should have won, but the politics of not giving a grammy to such a power collaboration probably made this inevitable.  The grammys used to mean something and be about the music but, much like when they stopped eating the groundhog in Punxatawney, we live in a sissified society.  Shame.  Check it:


5.  Murray State and Harvard.  I'm going to lump these two schools together because they both have an outside chance at an at-large berth, both stumbled this weekend (Murray lost to Tennessee State or Tech I'm not sure but I'm not looking it up and Harvard lost to Princeton), and both should probably do everything they can to win their league.  Harvard still looks pretty good with only one Ivy loss, and now that I look apparently Murray State is a lock to get an at-large according to ESPN so maybe I'm stupid.  I'm sorry, but how exactly are they a lock?  Even at 21-1 their RPI is 57 (Gophers are 54, FYI), Strength of schedule is 292, and non-conference strength of schedule is 132.  They only have four wins over the RPI top 150, and the two best are over Memphis and Southern Miss whose RPIs are top 25 but everyone know they suck.  One more conference loss and I say ship 'em to the NIT.  Plus maybe then I'll get to see them live at Williams' Arena, score!


Oh, and in case you're wondering if you missed him, no, I didn't write about Jeremy Lin because oh my god will you people shut up.

My look at the Top 25 (part I - with bonus book review)

Ok I admit it - that Gopher loss to Iowa has completely drained me of my caringnessitude about this season.  I'll be back if they beat Wisconsin, but right now I don't see anything in this team that makes me believe they're going to snag an NCAA bid, and that's the whole point of the season.  That's why I took a nap on Sunday instead of watching them play Nebraska - I couldn't bear to watch another road implosion.  Luckily and happily for me, they ended up winning which is good.  Now it's time to play an extremely overrated Wisconsin team and if they can't win this one, that'll pretty much do it for the season.  I may write a preview and I may not, but you know what you're getting from the Badgers anyway.  Instead, I'm going to focus on the National Picture a bit, and give my thoughts on the Top 25.  I did this last year and it was a big hit with me and I don't really care about anyone else.  These are the rankings in the ESPN/USA today poll, not my personal rankings.

1. Kentucky Wildcats.  I think there are four teams this year that are head and shoulders above everybody else in terms of pure talent (Kentucky, Missouri, Baylor, and UNC) but Kentucky is head and shoulders above the other three who are head and shoulders above the rest and they're playing up to their talent this year.  Only loss is that 1-pointer at Indiana, and they've won 8 of their last 10 by at least double digits.  You're always at risk in the tournament with a young team and a coach who is 95% recruiter/5% game coach, but Doron Lamb, Terrence Jones, and Darius Miller have been there before and can give you some leadership where Calipari fails.  They also only go 6.5 deep even with all the blowouts so that's a concern (and I have no idea why Cal isn't giving more run to some other guys in these big wins to help hedge against possible foul trouble in a tournament game when you need someone to step in).  Plenty of worries here, but I'm going to have an awfully hard time picking anybody else as my national champion come bracket fill-out time. 

2.  Syracuse Orange.  I didn't list the Cuse as one of those top-4 talented teams this year but that's no slight to them because I think they do the best job of playing as an overall "team" (along with Mizzou).  Now that the Fab Melo situation has been figured out they've got a rare mix of players where they can dominate you in the paint, on the perimeter, or slashing to the hole and with their athlete's this year Boeheim's zone might be one of his best ever.  Opponent's do kill them on the offensive boards which can spell doom in a tight one, and I'm having trouble buying them completely because they lack any single win you can point to and say "holy shit Cuse is the goods", but they aren't 23-1 by accident.  Probably the one top team where I'm just not quite sure what to think.

3.  Ohio State Buckeyes.  Ohio State is a team I think is flying a little bit under the radar right now, as much as that's possible for a team ranked third in the country.  They beat Wisconsin this weekend in a slow-it-down, plodding game and just a couple of weeks ago beat Indiana in a more uptempo game.  Their ability to win without having to dictate the pace of the game is a huge positive, not to mention that in William Buford and Jared Sullinger they have what might be the best inside-outside scoring duo in the country right now.  They're a bit suspect from a big man stand point outside of Sullinger and, as usual, don't have much depth, but unless DeShaun Thomas shoots them right out of a game they have a great chance at another Final Four berth.

4.  Missouri Tigers.  One of the only teams I consider both supremely talented and supremely "team-y" for lack of a better term, Mizzou would be my clear pick to take the whole thing in March if it wasn't for damn Kentucky.  The Tigers have a reputation as a high-scoring, fast-paced team and they are high-scoring, but they score a ton of points not because they play so fast (105th in the country in tempo) but because they're so efficient (#1 in offensive efficiency).  Simply put, they make a lot of shots (#2 in the country in effective FG%) and they take a lot of shots because they rarely turn the ball over (#4 in the country) - thus they score a ton of points and force you to keep up.  They have the best back court in the nation and although they look a little weak on the front line since they only really have one true forward in Ricardo Ratliffe, their win going into Baylor and taking on maybe the best front court in college tells me everything I know - it's either going to be Missouri or Kentucky cutting down the nets at the end.

5.  North Carolina Tar Heels.  Probably the second most talented team in the NCAA behind Kentucky, but they seem to missing every single intangible quality possible - nothing new for a Roy Williams led team.  There's no leadership, no hustle, no killer instinct, and no drive.  I know they only have three losses, but in two of those they were absolutely crushed (by UNLV and Florida State).  And really, outside of the season opening win against Michigan State on a boat do they have a really good win?  Wisconsin is overrated, Texas is terrible, and although Long Beach is a very good mid-major that's still all they are.  I can't really guarantee an early exit because there is so much talent here, but Harrison Barnes, Kendall Marshall, and Tyler Zeller are all quite types who are looking for someone to follow - one of them needs to become THE guy or we're looking at a non-sweet 16 team here.

6.  Baylor Bears.  I have a feeling this is going to be the trendy pick for the Final Four (say they're a two seed) to come out of whatever region they end up in and it's tough to argue with - their two losses have been to Missouri and Kansas and that's it.  One underrated aspect of Baylor is they are one of the best free throw shooting teams in the country at 74.2% (35th in the nation) and that's helped them win a lot of close ones (six wins over major conference foes of 5 pts or fewer) and could be a difference maker in March.  The big worry is although Pierre Jackson has helped them out with the ball-handling this year Baylor is still one of the worst teams in the country in turning the ball over, and as we know one bad game and you're done.

7.  Florida Gators.  I still think Florida is a Final Four contender because they have such a good back court, but neither Patric Young nor Erik Murphy has become a consistent inside force and that's what they'll need to make a run because despite being perimeter oriented they aren't very good defensively.  Erving Walker has settled down and become less chucker and more distributor and he's really allowed Boynton and Beal to flourish.  I would love to see a Florida/Missouri match-up - the over/under would be about 170.

8.  Murray State Racers.  Please.  They've played nobody, and I mean nobody.  Their strength of schedule is 251, and non-conference it's 119.  The only teams they've played that are "real" teams are Memphis (won by 4), Southern Miss (won in double OT), and Dayton (won by 17) and there's a good chance non of them make the NCAA Tournament, which would make Murray State 0-0 against NCAA Tournament teams.  It's a cute team and a cute story, but not only have they not played anyone they aren't even beating the bad teams all that convincingly.  They shoot over 40% from three so you can't completely write them off, but I have a pretty strong feeling they're a first game loss.

9.  Duke Blue Devils.  Same year same basic soft Duke team where all you really need is a strong inside dude who can push their finesse big guys around and some guards who can get said big man the ball as well as defend the three.  It's why they lost to Florida State and why they lost to Miami on Sunday.  Mike Kryzkyzkewski loves pansies - it's true.

SIDE BAR:  I just finished up reading this book - The Last Great Game by Gene Wojciechowski who, to the best of my knowledge, is not related to that little Duke wiener, and I rather enjoyed it despite half the book being about Duke.  That might have been the best part, because it basically proved that Christian Laettner really was an asshole, Bobby Hurley really was a whiner, and that Duke team was one of the least likeable teams in the history of history.   The Kentucky half of the book is even better, since I was young enough at that time I didn't really realize how crazy it was that UK was even in that position considering the massive sanctions they were under in the few years prior.  To get Pitino from the NBA, keep several of their recruits from fleeing despite the team being banned from the postseason, and for Pitino to get a recruit the caliber of Jamal Mashburn despite him knowing he couldn't play in the tournament is all just crazy.  And Wojo (this one, not the annoying little rat) either has really old notes or a lot of these guys have incredible memories, because he paints a very vivid and detailed picture.  Really, if you dig on college hoops books - as I do - I put this right up there with Feinstein's best work.

10.  Kansas Jayhawks.  The Jayhawks are interesting because even though I'm not necessarily impressed with them so far this year, they are the only team other than Kentucky who ranks in the top 10 in Ken Pomeroy's both offensive and defensive efficiency ratings.  Maybe I should be, but I always worry about team's that are so reliant on two players (Thomas Robinson and Tyshawn Taylor use a combined nearly 60% of KU's possessions).  I know that those two are worthy of that kind of reliance - both are probably top 10 National Player of the Year candidates right now - but a bad game from either of them probably dooms them. 

11.  Georgetown Hoyas.  Georgetown certainly wasn't supposed to be here after losing three starters from last year's team, but Henry Sims has really stepped up in his senior year (tripled his scoring and doubled or nearly doubled everything else) and they've gotten major contributions from some unheralded freshmen and have ridden their defense to a surprising 18-4 record.  And that's really all I got, because watching a Georgetown game makes me sleepy.

12.  Michigan State Spartans.  I could be wrong, but I think this might be one of Izzo's best teams.  Sure, they've lost a couple road games in the Big Ten but that's to be expected.  Don't forget after they lost to UNC and Duke to open the season they went on a 15-game winning streak which included wins over Florida State and Gonzaga, as well as Indiana and Wisconsin if you're impressed by that sort of thing.  The emergence in the second part of the season of Keith Appling has taken a lot of pressure off Draymond Green who is a lot better when he can concentrate on rebounding and facilitating the offense and let his points come naturally rather than having to carry the full offensive load.  Looking at this group and with Izzo's March history they could be a Final Four team with the right draw.

13.  St. Mary's Gaels.  I didn't even realize St. Mary's was all that good this year, but the whitey whitersons are 11-0 in the WCC (and don't forget, BYU is here now too) and are 6-2 against the RPI Top 100.  And Matthew Dellavedova doesn't just have one of the coolest names and sexiest hair in the NCAA, he's one of the best all-around guards as well.  I really need to catch one of their games this year before the tournament (maybe the Bracket Busters game against Murray State) so I can really evaluate them but it's clear they can light it up, and that always makes 'em dangerous.

14.  San Diego State Aztecs.  Even more surprising than G-Town being ranked highly is SDSU being up here because they lost almost everything from last year's team and it was looking like it'd be another case of a mid-major having everything come together and then crashing down after graduations/early defections, but Jamaal Franklin has gone from bit player to superstar, while Chase Tapley has gone from afterthought to star and SDSU is 6-1 in a tough Mountain West and already has wins over the other two major players in UNLV and New Mexico.  Next week is a monster because they play the Rebels Saturday and New Mexico the following Wednesday so if they handle that it may be time to start looking at them as a legit Final Four contender.

15.  Creighton Blue Jays.  These guys are really annoying because everyone is slobbering all over them, but what I see is a terrible defensive team playing in a way down Missouri Valley whose only significant non-conference win is over the aforementioned SDSU.  They're going to be somewhere in that 4-7 range for a seed and I have a feeling they're going to end up being a pretty trendy Sweet 16 pick (or more).  It could happen, because they do have a player of the year candidate who could carry them in Doug McDermott and they can really shoot the lights out, but if they end up going against a 13-10 seed who can score with them they could be a first round casualty - Iona or Oral Roberts would be a terrible matchup for them. 



So that's part 1.  I was going to do it all at once but then I got about 8 teams deep and I was all like oh god this is a lot of teams.  So I'm cutting her off at 15 for now.  I might do the next 10 (+ some notables who received votes) tomorrow night but I might go out to the bar instead.  Hell, I might be do both because I'm just crazy like that.

Also on the numbers me, Snacks, and Old Man split we had 8-7 for the Super Bowl so if Bradshaw doesn't score and the Giants instead kick a field goal two win 18-17 we would have won BOATLOADS divided by three.  But alas, I sit here.  Still poor.