Well I couldn't have read that Wisconsin/Baylor game any worse. I expected Frank Kaminsky to get killed, but instead he did the killing. It was like watching The Others and being like, man this is way creepy poor Nicole Kidman but then bam it turns out Nicole Kidman is dead the whole time. Oh, spoiler alert. Anyway thanks to Florida coming through, a couple over/unders, and hitting two middles with second half bets I overcame the big Baylor loss and made a little bit of money. Hopefully there's more to come tonight.
#11 Tennessee vs. #2 Michigan.
Advanced metrics absolutely love Tennessee. They rank 16th in offensive points per possession and 17th in defensive points per possession. The only other teams to rank in the top 20 in both this year are Wichita State, Florida, Virginia, and Louisville. That's a pretty damn impressive group. However I think this is a classic case of beating up on bad teams. The Vols have a win over Virginia back in December, but do you know their next best win? That win over a fading Iowa team. Next up? A win over a fading and overseeded UMass. Then Georgia, LSU, and Arkansas. See what I'm saying? Yeah they've won three games to get here and that's impressive, but I am not loving them.
Michigan, on the other hand, seems to be peaking at the right time. They destroyed both Wofford and Texas and everybody's clicking. Tennessee has overwhelmed their opponents with their size and rebounding so far, but that won't happen against Michigan. Jordan Morgan and Jon Horford might suck offensively but they can play defense. From there I think Michigan's perimeter guys can out score Tennessee's. I just think Michigan is a far superior team, so I'm going with Michigan -2 for four units
#7 UCONN vs. #3 Iowa State.
The loss of Georges Niang didn't hurt Iowa State against North Carolina, but it very well could against UCONN. Without him the Cyclones are very small, and although Melvin Ejim and Dustin Hogue play bigger than their size would suggest I'm not so sure that gets it done against a more rough and tumble former Big East team. It will also allow UCONN to go small with what is probably their best lineup, and one they have only been able to use about 5% of the time over the last 5 games because they generally need to have either Amida Brimah or Phillip Nolan in there at center for extra size. That's not really a concern against a Niang-less Iowa State, and Brimah's foul issues become much less important.
Then of course there's the whole Kemba Walker thing Shabazz Napier has going on right now. He's put up 24-8-6 against St. Joe's and 25-5-3 against Villanova despite missing a huge chunk of the first half. And man did you see some of those shots against Nova? Right now he's fearless and he's hot, and that is a dangerous combination to run up against. DeAndre Daniels seems to be peaking at the right time, and Ryan Boatright played as well as I've ever seen him play against Villanova. It wouldn't shock me to see this team make the Final Four. Sorry Clones. UCONN +2 for 3 units, and also a unit on the over 146 - ISU likes to get up and down, and I expect UCONN to get in the spirit.
#8 Kentucky vs. #4 Louisville.
Easily my most anticipated match-up of the weekend, and also the hardest to read for me. Before the tournament started I would have gone with Louisville -4.5 without hesitation, but Kentucky's win over Wichita was one of the most impressive top to bottom games I've seen anybody play this year. Everyone said at the beginning of the year that Kentucky was the most talented team in the country and if their talent came together they'd be the team to beat in the tournament, and that is still the case with at least five guys who are likely to be NBA first round picks in either this year's draft or the next. So that's the question, has this team now come together enough to beat the defending champs who, with the exception of the Manhattan game, have been rolling?
Well, it was just the sixth time this year a team scored 70+ against Wichita, and Kentucky shot 54% while doing it so they played pretty much a perfect shooting game on the offensive end. With Andrew Harrison's six turnovers and a total of 11 for the Wildcats vs. just 11 assists that tells me they didn't suddenly "get it" and considering six of those assists came from Julius Randle it's pretty clear the Kentucky guards still don't really know how to run a team. Another big piece of Kentucky's win was their 22 offensive rebounds, but the presence of Montrezl Harrell for Louisville should guarantee that at a minimum that number is cut in half, and the rest of Louisville's guys should be able to keep Kentucky off the boards better than Wichita did. Plus when it comes down to Calipari vs. Pitino with almost a week to prepare, I'll take Pitino every time. Louisville -4.5 for one unit and another unit on the over 139. Louisville tries to speed teams up and that should work beautifully against Kentucky.
#4 Michigan State vs. #1 Virginia.
People really seem to underrate Virginia this year, but a 16-2 run through the ACC, an ACC Tournament Championship, and a thorough thrashing of Memphis (with a mini scare against Coastal thrown in there) is one hell of a run. They've mainly done it with an incredible defense and a slow pace that left them allowing the fewest points per game in the country at 55.5. They also score at an efficient rate, a top 10 in the country rate, although they don't shoot the ball particularly well and can be prone to shooting slumps.
The Spartans should be able to handle them, however, because they're one of the best shooting teams in the country (13th by eFG%) and the execute extremely well and move the ball well (62% of baskets come from an assist, also 13th). I tried to find teams that have a similar profile that Virginia played this year and the closest two I could find were Duke and Wisconsin, team's that gave Virginia two of its six losses this year, and Michigan State is both a better rebounding and defensive team than either Duke or Virginia. Plus the Spartans put up those impressive numbers while rarely being healthy, and now they are. The pace shouldn't bother Sparty either, they can grind it out with the best of them. One unit on Michigan State -2, and two units on the under 127.
Showing posts with label Tennessee. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Tennessee. Show all posts
Friday, March 28, 2014
Wednesday, October 17, 2012
DWG College Basketball Preview: Teams #46-39
Man weather is such a dick. The Cards/Giants are still sitting there, like 3 hours after their delay started, waiting to resume play in the 8th and the Yanks/Tigers has been postponed now until tomorrow. Sucks. So here's something else that's a thing you could do:
46. Detroit Titans. Ray McCallum is still there. Three years ago two big-time recruits signed with smaller schools to play for their dads. One (Trey Ziegler at CMU) saw his father fired after two dismal seasons and bolted to Pitt, the other is McCallum and after advancing to the NCAA Tournament by winning the Horizon tournament last year the Titans are looking to do even more. There are some notable losses, particularly size-wise in Eli Holman, but there are a couple of senior forwards capable of putting up good numbers who should help balance things with McCallum. Plus they got Juwon Howard, Jr. this year. Juwon Howard Junior! Hell yeah!
45. Tennessee Volunteers. Bruce Pearl left Tennessee looking like a mess, but behind some solid leadership from Cuonzo Martin (CUONZO!) they actually had a pretty solid year last season (NIT berth) and now return almost the entire team for another go at it. And guys, their PF Jeronne Maymon is just a monster, and out of nowhere, too. He was nothing, and then he just exploded into a guy who had double figure points or rebounds (or both) in the Vols last 15 games last year and put up double doubles against three of the teams toughest opponents last season (Kentucky, Memphis, and Duke) including a 32 point, 20 rebound performance against Memphis. He's very Mbakwellian on the glass, just attacking every rebound as if his very life, nay, the fate of the planet, rested on him getting that ball. Tennessee was always able to recruit under Pearl but he was such as shitty coach they were chronically underachieved. Martin is a far better coach, and if he continues to get the same caliber of players to come to Tennessee this team is going to be a major player going forward.
44. UCONN Huskies. UCONN can't play in the postseason this year because of I don't know grades or some dumb arbitrary NCAA rule that punishes players who had nothing to do with the infraction, and as a result of that had to watch Alex Oriakhi and Roscoe Smith bolt to Missouri and UNLV respectively (along with Andre Drummond and Jeremy Lamb to the NBA) and will be going with a new coach in Kevin Ollie, but there's still plenty of talent here to screw over at least a Big East team or two's at-large hopes with some big wins. That is, of course, if DeAndre Daniels can become what he was supposed to become. Daniels was a top-10 recruit last season who chose UCONN over Kentucky, Florida, Duke, and Kansas but ended up buried on the bench much of last season. If he can blossom with a bigger role and mesh with outstanding guard tandem Ryan Boatright and Shabazz Napier the Huskies could be awfully good. Of course without cheater Calhoun who knows how this all shakes out. They could win four games and I wouldn't be surprised.
43. Davidson Wildcats. Davidson is a little bit annoying to me in their consistency, but here they are, back again, heavy favorites to win the SoCon and just good enough to scare or beat a team or two once they inevitably get to the NCAA Tournament as an 11 seed. Pretty much the entire team returns from last season when they put a scare in Louisville in the first round of the NCAA Tournament, but what's interesting about this iteration of the Wildcats is rather than being overly dependent on guards and 3-pointers, their two best players are a pair of forwards (including the SoCon Player of the Year and the other guy might actually be better) who can hit it, but don't need to. They leave that to the 200 guards Davidson has running around. Again.
42. Harvard Crimson. Well Tommy Amaker's got a nice little thing going here. In 2010 they made the CIT. In 2011, the NIT after tying for the Ivy League crown and losing in a one game playoff. Then last year they won the Ivy to make the NCAA Tournament, losing to fifth-seeded Vanderbilt by nine (yes, I picked Harvard). They do lose last year's Ivy League Player of the Year, but have everybody else back and Nevermind somehow I missed that Harvard has a bunch of guys embroiled in an academic scandal including their best player and both co-captains who are no longer on the team so drop these guys off the list, bump everyone up one, and throw Northwestern at the end or something. Gotta have some nerds, somehow.
41. Florida State Seminoles. Maybe I'm way off on FSU because they are 24th in the first Coaches' Poll that just came out, but I'm not seeing it. Losing four starters including your entire inside presence in Bernard James and Xavier Gibson is, like sticking a paperclip into a power outlet, no picnic. Yeah, they still have Michael Snaer and you know they'll be tenacious on defense and won't back down, but you know who else is tenacious and never backs down? My two-year old, and by the end of most days he's either run into a wall face first or fallen off some random piece of furniture and landed on his head. Every once in a while, however, he'll get a big win by throwing a matchbox car and hitting Mrs. W right in the face.
40. Murray State Racers. Things could be a bit tougher for the Racers this year, what with losing three starters and having to deal with Belmont's move to the OVC, but Murray State has developed a "Gonzaga-lite" reputation for a reason. They have a whole bunch of experienced seniors and generally play a deep bench so even if these guys don't have impressive stats you can bet they can play, and Murray State keeps bringing in solid recruiting classes to keep that pipeline going as well. Not to mention they still have Isaiah Canaan who led them to the tournament last year, winning the OVC Player of the Year Award, and then promptly sucked (8-30 in two NCAA Tourney games). Now a senior, Canaan should be able to do more assuming they get to that point again, because everyone knows that noted chokers always get better over time, right A-Rod?
39. St. Joe's Hawks. I actually feel like I might be underrating these guys a bit, because this team kind of has that feeling of building something that might be cresting this season. Last season the Hawks won 20 games (9 in A-10 play) and snagged an NIT berth, not bad considering the two previous years they won 22 games combined. Carl Jones, C.J. Aiken, and Langston Galloway (who you remember from such games as against the Gophers two straight years) are now in their third year playing together with Aiken growing into a force in the paint, Galloway developing into a dead-eye shooter from the wing, and Jones, well, he's pretty much the same chucker he's always been since he arrived in Philly and maybe these guys will be even better when he's gone next season (the other two are juniors) but whatever. St. Joe's' has been crappy since Jameer Nelson and Delonte West left and now they have hope. Can't you just let them have hope with their cheesesteaks?
Previous:
Teams #68-60
Teams #59-53
Teams #52-47
40. Murray State Racers. Things could be a bit tougher for the Racers this year, what with losing three starters and having to deal with Belmont's move to the OVC, but Murray State has developed a "Gonzaga-lite" reputation for a reason. They have a whole bunch of experienced seniors and generally play a deep bench so even if these guys don't have impressive stats you can bet they can play, and Murray State keeps bringing in solid recruiting classes to keep that pipeline going as well. Not to mention they still have Isaiah Canaan who led them to the tournament last year, winning the OVC Player of the Year Award, and then promptly sucked (8-30 in two NCAA Tourney games). Now a senior, Canaan should be able to do more assuming they get to that point again, because everyone knows that noted chokers always get better over time, right A-Rod?
Previous:
Teams #68-60
Teams #59-53
Teams #52-47
Tuesday, October 18, 2011
NCAA Basketball Preview - SEC
While the Pac-10 has been down and gotten most of the press/talk about being the worst major conference in college ball lately, the SEC hasn't been far behind. It's less notable because of Kentucky and Florida's success, but some of the traditional power teams have been way down, specifically LSU and Arkansas.
Things seem to be looking up however, with Vanderbilt looking very strong (they'd probably be ranked first in any other conference outside this and the ACC), Alabama looking strong, and LSU looking to be improved this year. Also I'm really just writing this to push the pictures down so they aren't "above the fold" because somebody once requested I do that because otherwise they pull up my blog at work and BAM hot chick right in front. So that's why I'm still typing.
1. KENTUCKY WILDCATS. If you're sick of John Calipari and Kentucky, this isn't the year for you because this might be slimey Cal's best team ever. He got a break with Terrence Jones and Doron Lamb opting to stay in school and brings in the #1 recruiting class in the country and maybe the best of his career with PF Anthony Davis (#2), SF Mike Gilchrist (#3), PG Marquis Teague (#5), and PF Kyle Wiltjer (#22). Just those six together with filler would be a top 10 team, but Kentucky still has . Is this the year Calipari finally puts it all together and walks away with the National Title? Good god, I hope not. That slime ball and Kentucky hoops in general can go to hell.
2. VANDERBILT COMMODORES. Vandy has a big chance to be really, really good this year. Unfortunately they were really, really good last year too and still got bounced by Richmond in the first round - not unlike the previous year when they got bounced in the first by Murray State. If they're going to make a run anytime soon this is the year to do it - they've got all five starters back and nine of their top ten scorers. John Jenkins might be the best shooter in the league and has surpassed Jeffrey Taylor as the best player on this team - and Taylor still has a shot to be All-SEC First Team. Their point guard led the SEC in assists, which makes sense giving those two guys he's dishing to, and they have a couple very solid post men including the sweet named Festus Ezeli. They also bring in a good class highlighted by Dai-Jon Parker, one of the best recruits in Vandy history. Seriously, they're loaded. If they can't make a run with this group they might as well disband the hoops program and become the full-time nerd school they're destined to become.
3. FLORIDA GATORS. The good news is that the Gators are absolutely loaded at guard, and you need guards to win. They return Erving Walker and Kenny Boynton, who were their top 2 scorers last year and add Rutgers transfer Mike Rosario, who led his team in scoring 2 years ago and was a big time recruit as a freshman, and freshman Bradley Beal, the #4 recruit in the nation. So yeah, they're set in the back court. The front court, however, is a big question mark because all three starters are gone. Patric Young is still here, and he was a highly regarded center a year ago and played well as a back-up last season. If they can figure out what to do with their big men or make a 3/4 guard offense work they are going to be a very, very dangerous team in March.
4. ALABAMA CRIMSON TIDE. Essentially the inverse of Florida, the Tide are loaded in the paint but
have serious question marks on the perimeter. JaMychal Green might be the best interior player in the conference, and he returns as the #2 returning scorer among perimeter players and the #2 returning rebounder in the conference (both behind UK's Terrence Jones), and the man who'll be starting right next to him, Tony Mitchell, is #3 and #4. On the perimeter there's talent, if not experience. Travis Releford, the team's third leading scorer last year, is back and a couple of newcomers are top 30 recruits in Trevor Lacey and Levi Randolph. Actually, now that I'm writing this I want to swap Bama and Florida here, but then my first sentence doesn't make any sense and I'd have to redo the whole thing.
5. MISSISSIPPI STATE BULLDOGS. The Bulldogs will go as far as Renardo Sidney and Dee Bost's heads will take them. Neither was the team's leading scorer last year (that was Ravern Johnson who is gone) but it's hard to argue they aren't the two most talented players. Of course, Sidney is overweight, disappears and floats through games at times, and got in a well-publicized fight with a teammate last season, not to mention the mess of trouble he went through with the NCAA. Bost missed the first 14 games last year after not withdrawing from the NBA draft in time and not keeping his academics in order. All the NCAA trouble should be behind them, but Sidney is the type of guy who could score 30 and grab 15 boards in a game or just as easily score in single-figures and grab just a couple boards. Not to mention that he gives the impression he's a bit of a ticking time bomb who could do something that would get him suspended again. Awfully fun to watch though.
6. LSU TIGERS. It hasn't really felt right the last two season's with LSU at the bottom of the SEC, but things should be looking up this year. Their top four scorers are back and they add in their first McDonald's All-American since 2005 in Johnny O'Bryant, a center who Rivals ranks as the 4th best at his position amongst all freshmen (#46 overall). And what a nice coincidence, center is exactly what LSU needed most. The perimeter is manned by sophomores Andre Stringer and Ralston Turner who were both top 150 recruits last year and both had successful first seasons, with Storm Warren (team's best rebounder) and Iowa State transfer Justin Hamilton joining O'Bryant on the inside (I didn't know players actually transferred OUT of Ames). LSU won't be a great team and likely won't challenge for an NCAA Tournament bid, but they'll at least get themselves out of the cellar and moving in the right direction.
7. ARKANSAS RAZORBACKS. Despite bringing in what Rivals ranks as the #11 class in the country, John Pelphrey was fired after another subpar season by Arkansas. Luckily new coach Mike Anderson was able to hold on to the class, and that's doubly good because leading scorer, noted sharpshooter, and horribly named Rotnei Clarke (who is white, fyi) transferred after the switch and third-leading scorer and leading rebounder Delvon Johnson has graduated. It's basically going to be Marshawn Powell with a whole bunch of unproven guys, both older and the newcomers. The two new guards (B.J. Young and Ky Madden) can both play either guard spot and were both top 30 type recruits, so they should thrive under Anderson. Should be fun to watch, either way.
8. TENNESSEE VOLUNTEERS. I don't really like living in a world where Tennessee isn't a top tier SEC basketball team, but after Bruce Pearl tried to single-handedly destroy the program that looks like where we sit with five of the team's top six scorers from last year gone and one of their top recruits opted out and signed on with Louisville instead. The lone big-time returner is guard Cameron Tatum who has been a bit of a disappointment thus far in his career, averaging around 7.5 points per game. He's always been a 3rd or 4th option, but will have a chance to be the man this year. There's plenty of other talent (why wouldn't there be since Pearl was a cheater) if not experience, with freshmen PG Chris Jones and SG Josh Richardson, sophomore SGs Jordan McRae and Trae Golden, junior center Kenny Hall and SF Jeronne Maymon, and senior PF Renaldo Woolridge all former top 100 recruits. So really, these guys could finish anywhere from 4th to 12th and it wouldn't be a surprise. With a good new coach in Cuonzo Martin I'm guessing they'll be ok.
9. OLE MISS REBELS. The last four years had to be a bit disappointing for the Rebels (assuming anybody there cares about something besides football) because they had Chris Warren (not the RB) one of the best players in Ole Miss history and all they could muster was a couple of NIT Final Fours without a single NCAA berth. Now Warren is gone along with his back court mate Zach Graham and they're combined 34 points, 7 rebounds, and 6 assists per game with them. As you can imagine, this leaves a fairly gaping hole. The good news is that Jelan Kendrick, formerly of the Memphis Tigers and was ranked the #15 best recruit in the country in 2010, is on board and becomes eligible after the first semester - he will immediately become Ole Miss's best player. Assuming he manages to stay on the team (read this for a quick synopsis of this dude's mental issues) he and fellow NBA prospect Terrance Henry should at least keep Ole Miss competitive.
10. AUBURN TIGERS. Auburn was completely awful last season with losses to teams like Presbyterian, Asheville, Samford, Jacksonville, and Campbell and their leading scorer and rebounder from last season transferred to Missouri, but there isn't a complete lack of hope for the Tigers. Kenny Gabriel is a double-figure scorer who is back, point guard Frankie Sullivan is returning from a season ending knee injury last year, while a couple of transfers (Varez Ward from Texas and Noel Johnson from Clemson) will likely immediately jump into the starting lineup. They also add 6-10 center Willy Kouassi, the #66 freshman in the country and SG Cedrick McAfee (#145), so although they won't be in contention for an NCAA bid any time soon, at least there's a little bit of reason for hope.
11. GEORGIA BULLDOGS. No team was hit harder by early NBA entries than Georgia with Trey Thompkins and Travis Leslie taking off. All those two were responsible for last season was 45% of the team's points, 44% of their rebounds, 30% of their assists, 38% of their steals, and 46% of their blocks, and took 42% of the team's shots. So yes, there are some big shoes to fill here. They do have 3rd leading scorer and starting PG Gerald Robinson back, so that will help, and stud recruit Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (#12 overall) will probably immediately start next to him, but besides Thompkins in the paint they also have to try to replace their top 2 other post men, and there's just nobody here to do it.
12. SOUTH CAROLINA GAME COCKS. So this team won 5 SEC games last year. Their best player, Bruce Ellington, decided to play football and, although he is supposed to rejoin the team it won't happen until after football season and South Carolina is probably heading to a bowl. Their second best player graduated, and their third best player decided to transfer to LaSalle who is terrible. I'd say things are not looking super great. You know how it seems like the Cocks either beat or put a scare into somebody good at home every year? Yeah, don't expect that this year. As the Gin Blossoms once said, "Don't expect too much from me and you might not be let down."
Other previews:
Big 12
ACC
Atlantic 10
Pac 12
Things seem to be looking up however, with Vanderbilt looking very strong (they'd probably be ranked first in any other conference outside this and the ACC), Alabama looking strong, and LSU looking to be improved this year. Also I'm really just writing this to push the pictures down so they aren't "above the fold" because somebody once requested I do that because otherwise they pull up my blog at work and BAM hot chick right in front. So that's why I'm still typing.
1. KENTUCKY WILDCATS. If you're sick of John Calipari and Kentucky, this isn't the year for you because this might be slimey Cal's best team ever. He got a break with Terrence Jones and Doron Lamb opting to stay in school and brings in the #1 recruiting class in the country and maybe the best of his career with PF Anthony Davis (#2), SF Mike Gilchrist (#3), PG Marquis Teague (#5), and PF Kyle Wiltjer (#22). Just those six together with filler would be a top 10 team, but Kentucky still has . Is this the year Calipari finally puts it all together and walks away with the National Title? Good god, I hope not. That slime ball and Kentucky hoops in general can go to hell.
2. VANDERBILT COMMODORES. Vandy has a big chance to be really, really good this year. Unfortunately they were really, really good last year too and still got bounced by Richmond in the first round - not unlike the previous year when they got bounced in the first by Murray State. If they're going to make a run anytime soon this is the year to do it - they've got all five starters back and nine of their top ten scorers. John Jenkins might be the best shooter in the league and has surpassed Jeffrey Taylor as the best player on this team - and Taylor still has a shot to be All-SEC First Team. Their point guard led the SEC in assists, which makes sense giving those two guys he's dishing to, and they have a couple very solid post men including the sweet named Festus Ezeli. They also bring in a good class highlighted by Dai-Jon Parker, one of the best recruits in Vandy history. Seriously, they're loaded. If they can't make a run with this group they might as well disband the hoops program and become the full-time nerd school they're destined to become.
3. FLORIDA GATORS. The good news is that the Gators are absolutely loaded at guard, and you need guards to win. They return Erving Walker and Kenny Boynton, who were their top 2 scorers last year and add Rutgers transfer Mike Rosario, who led his team in scoring 2 years ago and was a big time recruit as a freshman, and freshman Bradley Beal, the #4 recruit in the nation. So yeah, they're set in the back court. The front court, however, is a big question mark because all three starters are gone. Patric Young is still here, and he was a highly regarded center a year ago and played well as a back-up last season. If they can figure out what to do with their big men or make a 3/4 guard offense work they are going to be a very, very dangerous team in March.
4. ALABAMA CRIMSON TIDE. Essentially the inverse of Florida, the Tide are loaded in the paint but
have serious question marks on the perimeter. JaMychal Green might be the best interior player in the conference, and he returns as the #2 returning scorer among perimeter players and the #2 returning rebounder in the conference (both behind UK's Terrence Jones), and the man who'll be starting right next to him, Tony Mitchell, is #3 and #4. On the perimeter there's talent, if not experience. Travis Releford, the team's third leading scorer last year, is back and a couple of newcomers are top 30 recruits in Trevor Lacey and Levi Randolph. Actually, now that I'm writing this I want to swap Bama and Florida here, but then my first sentence doesn't make any sense and I'd have to redo the whole thing.
5. MISSISSIPPI STATE BULLDOGS. The Bulldogs will go as far as Renardo Sidney and Dee Bost's heads will take them. Neither was the team's leading scorer last year (that was Ravern Johnson who is gone) but it's hard to argue they aren't the two most talented players. Of course, Sidney is overweight, disappears and floats through games at times, and got in a well-publicized fight with a teammate last season, not to mention the mess of trouble he went through with the NCAA. Bost missed the first 14 games last year after not withdrawing from the NBA draft in time and not keeping his academics in order. All the NCAA trouble should be behind them, but Sidney is the type of guy who could score 30 and grab 15 boards in a game or just as easily score in single-figures and grab just a couple boards. Not to mention that he gives the impression he's a bit of a ticking time bomb who could do something that would get him suspended again. Awfully fun to watch though.
6. LSU TIGERS. It hasn't really felt right the last two season's with LSU at the bottom of the SEC, but things should be looking up this year. Their top four scorers are back and they add in their first McDonald's All-American since 2005 in Johnny O'Bryant, a center who Rivals ranks as the 4th best at his position amongst all freshmen (#46 overall). And what a nice coincidence, center is exactly what LSU needed most. The perimeter is manned by sophomores Andre Stringer and Ralston Turner who were both top 150 recruits last year and both had successful first seasons, with Storm Warren (team's best rebounder) and Iowa State transfer Justin Hamilton joining O'Bryant on the inside (I didn't know players actually transferred OUT of Ames). LSU won't be a great team and likely won't challenge for an NCAA Tournament bid, but they'll at least get themselves out of the cellar and moving in the right direction.
7. ARKANSAS RAZORBACKS. Despite bringing in what Rivals ranks as the #11 class in the country, John Pelphrey was fired after another subpar season by Arkansas. Luckily new coach Mike Anderson was able to hold on to the class, and that's doubly good because leading scorer, noted sharpshooter, and horribly named Rotnei Clarke (who is white, fyi) transferred after the switch and third-leading scorer and leading rebounder Delvon Johnson has graduated. It's basically going to be Marshawn Powell with a whole bunch of unproven guys, both older and the newcomers. The two new guards (B.J. Young and Ky Madden) can both play either guard spot and were both top 30 type recruits, so they should thrive under Anderson. Should be fun to watch, either way.
8. TENNESSEE VOLUNTEERS. I don't really like living in a world where Tennessee isn't a top tier SEC basketball team, but after Bruce Pearl tried to single-handedly destroy the program that looks like where we sit with five of the team's top six scorers from last year gone and one of their top recruits opted out and signed on with Louisville instead. The lone big-time returner is guard Cameron Tatum who has been a bit of a disappointment thus far in his career, averaging around 7.5 points per game. He's always been a 3rd or 4th option, but will have a chance to be the man this year. There's plenty of other talent (why wouldn't there be since Pearl was a cheater) if not experience, with freshmen PG Chris Jones and SG Josh Richardson, sophomore SGs Jordan McRae and Trae Golden, junior center Kenny Hall and SF Jeronne Maymon, and senior PF Renaldo Woolridge all former top 100 recruits. So really, these guys could finish anywhere from 4th to 12th and it wouldn't be a surprise. With a good new coach in Cuonzo Martin I'm guessing they'll be ok.
9. OLE MISS REBELS. The last four years had to be a bit disappointing for the Rebels (assuming anybody there cares about something besides football) because they had Chris Warren (not the RB) one of the best players in Ole Miss history and all they could muster was a couple of NIT Final Fours without a single NCAA berth. Now Warren is gone along with his back court mate Zach Graham and they're combined 34 points, 7 rebounds, and 6 assists per game with them. As you can imagine, this leaves a fairly gaping hole. The good news is that Jelan Kendrick, formerly of the Memphis Tigers and was ranked the #15 best recruit in the country in 2010, is on board and becomes eligible after the first semester - he will immediately become Ole Miss's best player. Assuming he manages to stay on the team (read this for a quick synopsis of this dude's mental issues) he and fellow NBA prospect Terrance Henry should at least keep Ole Miss competitive.
10. AUBURN TIGERS. Auburn was completely awful last season with losses to teams like Presbyterian, Asheville, Samford, Jacksonville, and Campbell and their leading scorer and rebounder from last season transferred to Missouri, but there isn't a complete lack of hope for the Tigers. Kenny Gabriel is a double-figure scorer who is back, point guard Frankie Sullivan is returning from a season ending knee injury last year, while a couple of transfers (Varez Ward from Texas and Noel Johnson from Clemson) will likely immediately jump into the starting lineup. They also add 6-10 center Willy Kouassi, the #66 freshman in the country and SG Cedrick McAfee (#145), so although they won't be in contention for an NCAA bid any time soon, at least there's a little bit of reason for hope.
11. GEORGIA BULLDOGS. No team was hit harder by early NBA entries than Georgia with Trey Thompkins and Travis Leslie taking off. All those two were responsible for last season was 45% of the team's points, 44% of their rebounds, 30% of their assists, 38% of their steals, and 46% of their blocks, and took 42% of the team's shots. So yes, there are some big shoes to fill here. They do have 3rd leading scorer and starting PG Gerald Robinson back, so that will help, and stud recruit Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (#12 overall) will probably immediately start next to him, but besides Thompkins in the paint they also have to try to replace their top 2 other post men, and there's just nobody here to do it.
12. SOUTH CAROLINA GAME COCKS. So this team won 5 SEC games last year. Their best player, Bruce Ellington, decided to play football and, although he is supposed to rejoin the team it won't happen until after football season and South Carolina is probably heading to a bowl. Their second best player graduated, and their third best player decided to transfer to LaSalle who is terrible. I'd say things are not looking super great. You know how it seems like the Cocks either beat or put a scare into somebody good at home every year? Yeah, don't expect that this year. As the Gin Blossoms once said, "Don't expect too much from me and you might not be let down."
Other previews:
Big 12
ACC
Atlantic 10
Pac 12
Monday, February 28, 2011
Week in Review - 02.28.2011
So I didn't watch the Gopher game. I would have, but circumstances conspired to keep me from witnessing that crime against basketball. We had a family bowling tournament that normally would have ended up with me watching the game with Snacks and Grandslam at a bar or at the alley, but one of my damn wiener kids got all barfy and we had to go home before after just one game (132 - holla). Then I had the game tivo'd and was going to watch it later, but I got a texted from Bogart referencing the NIT, one from Dawger that mentioned he hated the gophers and hated his life, and one from Snacks that just flat out said, "Don't bother watching. Gophers lose." So I didn't watch.
I mean, what's the point? I would just end up angry and probably hurt either a loved one or myself or a stranger who was walking past my house life before, so I didn't bother. Not sure if I'll watch another Gopher game this year outside of the Penn State game, and that's only because I'll be in attendance with WonderbabyTM who rocks way more than you do. There were years in the past when I really enjoyed the NIT, and enjoyed going to games at Williams and checking out teams I normally would never see in person. This is not that kind of year. This is more like, at the beginning of the year the NIT was a worst case scenario and the kind of thing that could only happen if there was a complete collapse. Nobody thought this would be the end result, even if there was always a little nervous laughter and whistling past the graveyard if it was brought up.
Kill me.
WHO WAS AWESOME
1. Syracuse Orange. Well here's a team that's impossible to figure out. They start 18-0 and look like they're on the road to a #1 seed, then lose six out of eight and appear to be unable to guard quick, penetrating guards, then they follow it up with a four game winning streak including two this week against Villanova and Georgetown - teams with excellent guard play (and even with Wright hurt the Hoyas have good guards), and win both of those on the road no less. I had a chance to watch decent chunks of both those games and all I can say is wow to Scoop Jardine. Kris Joseph is a dynamic scorer and Rick Jackson is a beast in the paint, but this team may go as Scoop goes, and this week he was on fire going for 20 pts and 6 assists against Nova and 17 and 5 against G-Town. I was convinced I would have the Cuse as an early out in March as soon as they faced a team with good guards, but watching the adjustments Boeheim has made to their 2-3 (less ball pressure, more gap help) and Scoop's resurgence now I just don't know. Just like everything else about this god damn stupid season.
2. BYU Cougars. If you're like me you're handsome, rich, and successful, but you also figured that San Diego State was the real threat out of the Mountain West while BYU was more of a one-man trick with Jimmer and weren't a "real" team. Well you couldn't have been more wrong and should hang your head in shame because the Cougars went to SDSU this weekend and smacked them right in the face, walking out with an 80-67 win, a season sweep of the Aztecs, and what is now looking quite likely like a 2-3 seed in March. That win followed up a trouncing of bubble hopeful Colorado State earlier in the week, and suddenly BYU's challenges prior to a MWC Tournament semi-final are pretty much done with. Will this finally be the year they breakthrough and make a run? Last year they beat Florida in overtime, their first NCAA victory since 1993, snapping an 0-7 streak. With most of the same team back that went first round-first round-second round, a bonafide star in Fredette, and at worst a 4-seed, I'd say the sweet 16 should be an absolute minimum goal right now.
3. Colorado Buffaloes. I realize as Gopher basketball fans we aren't really accustomed to this, but occasionally it happens where a team making a run towards an NCAA bid has the opportunity for a huge, almost status-changing win and actually, you know, wins. Colorado is just such a team this year, seizing their chance and knocking off the #5 Texas Longhorns 91-89. They did it in very impressive, "we're not going to let this season die yet dammit we're going to fight" fashion, storming back from a 22-point first half deficit to grab the marquee win they really needed, moving themselves from probably not in to squarely in the middle of the "maybe" tier. It's just so nice to see a team actually rise up and win a tough game they really need. I wish I knew what that was like.
4. Marquette Eagles. Another middle of the bubble team that took a huge step towards the good side, it now looks extremely likely the Big East is going to send 11 teams to the big dance. The Eagles snagged a huge marquee victory earlier this week by going into Storrs and beating UCONN. Not only was that a monster win for them in terms of beating a top flight team on the road, but it also got them above .500 in Big East play - a not insignificant milestone considering the strength of the league. They then managed to avoid falling into a lull and beat Providence this weekend. I guess that's not that big a deal since they've lost six straight, but anytime you got a guy who can go for 52, as the Friars' Marshon Brooks did against Notre Dame on Wednesday, you're dangerous. In any case, Marquette is now almost assuredly in - as long as they don't choke here in the last few games.
5. JaJuan Johnson. Man, as much as it's going to help the Gophers I'm really going to miss watching this guy - he's freaking unreal. When he was younger I compared him to Hakim Warrick, and Snake always refers to him as "The College KG", and he might be better than that. I loved Hakim Warrick, and compared Johnson to him because of their long arms and ability to shoot outside, but Johnson is so much more than Warrick ever was - and that's no slight to Hakim. His line in Purdue's 67-47 win over Michigan State was incredible: 20 points on 8-13 shooting, 17 rebounds, and 7 blocks. The amazing thing is that it's not really even that far off his normal night. He's shooting 50% on the year, and while that might not seem that great for a center, if you watched him play you know how many 18 footers and so on he takes, so that 50% is very, very good. [Side note: does anybody know of a site that keeps insane stats for college like shooting percentage on long 2s or other things like that you can find for NBA players?] The guy is absolutely in a class by himself and should be the runaway winner for Big 10 player of the year. I'm going to shed a tiny tear when Purdue gets bounced from the tournament and his career comes to a close. And I'll make sure to follow his pro career in Europe closely.
WHO SUCKED
1. Corey Fisher. Holy Scottie Reynolds, batman! Villanova lost two games this week, both at home, but both were to very good teams (Syracuse and St. Johns) so it's hard to rip on the Wildcats too much. Good thing for us though it's not too hard to rip on Corey Fisher, who had a truly Reynolds-esque run this week, shooting a combined 4-26 from the floor in the two games. That's not a joke or anything, he went 3-16 against 'Cuse and then went 1-10 against St Johns. And this is their leading scorer here. Is there some kind of law that Nova must always have a gunner with no conscience who sucks at shooting but loves shooting? Did Reynolds "will" his ability to Fisher in the school paper after he graduated? Seriously, anybody who has Villanova surviving the first weekend in their bracket should be committed.
2. Arizona Wildcats. Ah, the Pac-10, where good teams continually find ways to die. Washington looked like the class of the league but bombed out, leaving the top clear for Arizona. Until this week, that is, when the Wildcats took their LA trip and lost to both USC and UCLA, and although both losses are understandable the USC loss is a game a good team wins and the UCLA loss was an absolute shellacking by 22. Suddenly UCLA is looking like the class of the league, but in reality I still think Washington is the only Pac-10 team with a legit chance at making the sweet 16. Arizona would have to get a really good draw to do it and UCLA has no chance, so it's up to Washington, who recently got swept by the Oregon schools. Wow, the Pac-10 is awesome. Good thing for them they have all the hot chicks at least.
3. Nebraska Cornhuskers. On the completely opposite end of the spectrum from Colorado stepping up is Nebraska, who crashed on burned their NCAA chances to a level that could only be described as St. Marysian. First they got bounced at home by Kansas State, a fellow bubble team, and then followed it up by losing at Iowa State - a school/team I love but also a team that you absolutely, 100%, guaranteed cannot lose to if you want to get a bid to the NCAA Tournament. So that won't be happening, but you'll be very happy to know that Nebraska, after decades of ineptitude, has decided to become frisky just as they're about to enter the Big Ten. Yeah, another team the Gophers should beat but won't. Another crappy team that will beat them at home as the season winds down and the Gophers desperately need a win. Another shitty team they won't be able to beat on the road, even when they are supposed to have a good team. God dammit. All of it. Everything. I hate everyone. I hate you.
4. Boston College Eagles. Allegedly BC is still alive to get a bid, but after they lost to Miami - at home, I'm just not seeing it. They bounced back by beating Virginia over the weekend, but that brings them to just 7-7 in a very weak ACC this year. They do have a very good win with their victory over Texas A&M in Orlando, but they also have some brutal losses - Harvard, Yale, Rhode Island, and they got swept by the Hurricanes. They're just a thoroughly mediocre team, and if they get in the tournament this year that just goes to show just how weak the teams are and just how easy it is to get a bid this year. And yes, I'm aware that in a year where it's looking extremely easy to get in the Gophers won't make it in Tubby Smith's fourth year here. Yeah, I'd say we're right where we thought we'd be in Year Four.
5. Tennessee Volunteers. There are plenty of confusing teams this year, teams who you can't quite get a handle on, but Tennessee might be the worst of all. Just this week was a pretty good microcosm of their season - beating a very good, sweet-16 type team in Vanderbilt on the road, and then coming home and losing to mediocre at best, potential Gopher NIT opponent Mississippi State. As far as the entire season goes, here are some impressive games they've won: @ Kentucky, @ Vandy, Memphis, Pitt, Villanova, Vandy, VCU - that's a damn impressive list of wins. But here are some of their losses: Oakland, Charlotte, USC, @ Arkansas, Mississippi State - those are some bad teams. Just a mess of a confusing and weird team. They're so schizo I won't even bet on them come March.
Just kidding.
Take heart, Gopher fans. Not because of anything to do with the Gophers, but this week kicks off conference tournament week, which is followed by BCS conferences tournament week, which is then followed by the NCAA Tournament. So just go ahead and let go of this season and enjoy all the high quality ball that's coming in the next two weeks.
I mean, what's the point? I would just end up angry and probably hurt either a loved one or myself or a stranger who was walking past my house life before, so I didn't bother. Not sure if I'll watch another Gopher game this year outside of the Penn State game, and that's only because I'll be in attendance with WonderbabyTM who rocks way more than you do. There were years in the past when I really enjoyed the NIT, and enjoyed going to games at Williams and checking out teams I normally would never see in person. This is not that kind of year. This is more like, at the beginning of the year the NIT was a worst case scenario and the kind of thing that could only happen if there was a complete collapse. Nobody thought this would be the end result, even if there was always a little nervous laughter and whistling past the graveyard if it was brought up.
Kill me.
WHO WAS AWESOME
1. Syracuse Orange. Well here's a team that's impossible to figure out. They start 18-0 and look like they're on the road to a #1 seed, then lose six out of eight and appear to be unable to guard quick, penetrating guards, then they follow it up with a four game winning streak including two this week against Villanova and Georgetown - teams with excellent guard play (and even with Wright hurt the Hoyas have good guards), and win both of those on the road no less. I had a chance to watch decent chunks of both those games and all I can say is wow to Scoop Jardine. Kris Joseph is a dynamic scorer and Rick Jackson is a beast in the paint, but this team may go as Scoop goes, and this week he was on fire going for 20 pts and 6 assists against Nova and 17 and 5 against G-Town. I was convinced I would have the Cuse as an early out in March as soon as they faced a team with good guards, but watching the adjustments Boeheim has made to their 2-3 (less ball pressure, more gap help) and Scoop's resurgence now I just don't know. Just like everything else about this god damn stupid season.
2. BYU Cougars. If you're like me you're handsome, rich, and successful, but you also figured that San Diego State was the real threat out of the Mountain West while BYU was more of a one-man trick with Jimmer and weren't a "real" team. Well you couldn't have been more wrong and should hang your head in shame because the Cougars went to SDSU this weekend and smacked them right in the face, walking out with an 80-67 win, a season sweep of the Aztecs, and what is now looking quite likely like a 2-3 seed in March. That win followed up a trouncing of bubble hopeful Colorado State earlier in the week, and suddenly BYU's challenges prior to a MWC Tournament semi-final are pretty much done with. Will this finally be the year they breakthrough and make a run? Last year they beat Florida in overtime, their first NCAA victory since 1993, snapping an 0-7 streak. With most of the same team back that went first round-first round-second round, a bonafide star in Fredette, and at worst a 4-seed, I'd say the sweet 16 should be an absolute minimum goal right now.
3. Colorado Buffaloes. I realize as Gopher basketball fans we aren't really accustomed to this, but occasionally it happens where a team making a run towards an NCAA bid has the opportunity for a huge, almost status-changing win and actually, you know, wins. Colorado is just such a team this year, seizing their chance and knocking off the #5 Texas Longhorns 91-89. They did it in very impressive, "we're not going to let this season die yet dammit we're going to fight" fashion, storming back from a 22-point first half deficit to grab the marquee win they really needed, moving themselves from probably not in to squarely in the middle of the "maybe" tier. It's just so nice to see a team actually rise up and win a tough game they really need. I wish I knew what that was like.
4. Marquette Eagles. Another middle of the bubble team that took a huge step towards the good side, it now looks extremely likely the Big East is going to send 11 teams to the big dance. The Eagles snagged a huge marquee victory earlier this week by going into Storrs and beating UCONN. Not only was that a monster win for them in terms of beating a top flight team on the road, but it also got them above .500 in Big East play - a not insignificant milestone considering the strength of the league. They then managed to avoid falling into a lull and beat Providence this weekend. I guess that's not that big a deal since they've lost six straight, but anytime you got a guy who can go for 52, as the Friars' Marshon Brooks did against Notre Dame on Wednesday, you're dangerous. In any case, Marquette is now almost assuredly in - as long as they don't choke here in the last few games.
5. JaJuan Johnson. Man, as much as it's going to help the Gophers I'm really going to miss watching this guy - he's freaking unreal. When he was younger I compared him to Hakim Warrick, and Snake always refers to him as "The College KG", and he might be better than that. I loved Hakim Warrick, and compared Johnson to him because of their long arms and ability to shoot outside, but Johnson is so much more than Warrick ever was - and that's no slight to Hakim. His line in Purdue's 67-47 win over Michigan State was incredible: 20 points on 8-13 shooting, 17 rebounds, and 7 blocks. The amazing thing is that it's not really even that far off his normal night. He's shooting 50% on the year, and while that might not seem that great for a center, if you watched him play you know how many 18 footers and so on he takes, so that 50% is very, very good. [Side note: does anybody know of a site that keeps insane stats for college like shooting percentage on long 2s or other things like that you can find for NBA players?] The guy is absolutely in a class by himself and should be the runaway winner for Big 10 player of the year. I'm going to shed a tiny tear when Purdue gets bounced from the tournament and his career comes to a close. And I'll make sure to follow his pro career in Europe closely.
WHO SUCKED
1. Corey Fisher. Holy Scottie Reynolds, batman! Villanova lost two games this week, both at home, but both were to very good teams (Syracuse and St. Johns) so it's hard to rip on the Wildcats too much. Good thing for us though it's not too hard to rip on Corey Fisher, who had a truly Reynolds-esque run this week, shooting a combined 4-26 from the floor in the two games. That's not a joke or anything, he went 3-16 against 'Cuse and then went 1-10 against St Johns. And this is their leading scorer here. Is there some kind of law that Nova must always have a gunner with no conscience who sucks at shooting but loves shooting? Did Reynolds "will" his ability to Fisher in the school paper after he graduated? Seriously, anybody who has Villanova surviving the first weekend in their bracket should be committed.
2. Arizona Wildcats. Ah, the Pac-10, where good teams continually find ways to die. Washington looked like the class of the league but bombed out, leaving the top clear for Arizona. Until this week, that is, when the Wildcats took their LA trip and lost to both USC and UCLA, and although both losses are understandable the USC loss is a game a good team wins and the UCLA loss was an absolute shellacking by 22. Suddenly UCLA is looking like the class of the league, but in reality I still think Washington is the only Pac-10 team with a legit chance at making the sweet 16. Arizona would have to get a really good draw to do it and UCLA has no chance, so it's up to Washington, who recently got swept by the Oregon schools. Wow, the Pac-10 is awesome. Good thing for them they have all the hot chicks at least.
3. Nebraska Cornhuskers. On the completely opposite end of the spectrum from Colorado stepping up is Nebraska, who crashed on burned their NCAA chances to a level that could only be described as St. Marysian. First they got bounced at home by Kansas State, a fellow bubble team, and then followed it up by losing at Iowa State - a school/team I love but also a team that you absolutely, 100%, guaranteed cannot lose to if you want to get a bid to the NCAA Tournament. So that won't be happening, but you'll be very happy to know that Nebraska, after decades of ineptitude, has decided to become frisky just as they're about to enter the Big Ten. Yeah, another team the Gophers should beat but won't. Another crappy team that will beat them at home as the season winds down and the Gophers desperately need a win. Another shitty team they won't be able to beat on the road, even when they are supposed to have a good team. God dammit. All of it. Everything. I hate everyone. I hate you.
4. Boston College Eagles. Allegedly BC is still alive to get a bid, but after they lost to Miami - at home, I'm just not seeing it. They bounced back by beating Virginia over the weekend, but that brings them to just 7-7 in a very weak ACC this year. They do have a very good win with their victory over Texas A&M in Orlando, but they also have some brutal losses - Harvard, Yale, Rhode Island, and they got swept by the Hurricanes. They're just a thoroughly mediocre team, and if they get in the tournament this year that just goes to show just how weak the teams are and just how easy it is to get a bid this year. And yes, I'm aware that in a year where it's looking extremely easy to get in the Gophers won't make it in Tubby Smith's fourth year here. Yeah, I'd say we're right where we thought we'd be in Year Four.
5. Tennessee Volunteers. There are plenty of confusing teams this year, teams who you can't quite get a handle on, but Tennessee might be the worst of all. Just this week was a pretty good microcosm of their season - beating a very good, sweet-16 type team in Vanderbilt on the road, and then coming home and losing to mediocre at best, potential Gopher NIT opponent Mississippi State. As far as the entire season goes, here are some impressive games they've won: @ Kentucky, @ Vandy, Memphis, Pitt, Villanova, Vandy, VCU - that's a damn impressive list of wins. But here are some of their losses: Oakland, Charlotte, USC, @ Arkansas, Mississippi State - those are some bad teams. Just a mess of a confusing and weird team. They're so schizo I won't even bet on them come March.
Just kidding.
Take heart, Gopher fans. Not because of anything to do with the Gophers, but this week kicks off conference tournament week, which is followed by BCS conferences tournament week, which is then followed by the NCAA Tournament. So just go ahead and let go of this season and enjoy all the high quality ball that's coming in the next two weeks.
Monday, December 20, 2010
Week in Review - 12.20.2010
Two last things about my trip to California:
1. On the ride home I sat next to this young woman probably in her early twenties. Throughout the entire three and a half hour flight she didn't nap. She also didn't read. She didn't have a computer. She didn't do a crossword or sudoku book. She declined a drink when they came by to offer a complimentary beverage. She never went to the bathroom. She never spoke to anyone. No, she did nothing except stare straight ahead and blink for 3 and a half hours. Absolutely bizarre and kind of creepy. She's either a genius who needs nothing more than her brain to be entertained, or dumb as hell with an empty head. I have my suspicions.
2. If you are ever in California you absolutely have to check out In-and-Out Burger. Absolutely the best burger ever, excellent fries, and it's all at a near fast-food (but it's not fast food) pace. Get yourself a double-double and order it animal style. You won't regret it. So freaking good. Anyway, on to the real stuff.
WHO WAS AWESOME
1. UCLA Bruins. Still not exactly sure what to make of the Pac-10, and I'm still pretty sure they mostly suck, but UCLA picked up a huge win this weekend knocking off BYU (previously undefeated) in Anaheim at the Wooden Classic. They won by forcing the Cougars into 19 turnovers, 7 by Jimmer Fredette, and got a huge game out of Reeves Nelson, who looks like a nerd but plays like white jesus. This win, along with the Bruins hanging with Kansas right to the wire earlier this year, shows that the Bruins have the capability to compete with Washington and Arizona at the top of this conference. They also have the capability to get swept by the Oregon schools. Buyer beware.
2. San Diego State Aztecs. It's not so much that they got a big win this week, but they're still undefeated (now 12-0) and the way they dismantled Santa Barbara by 26 - the same Gauchos team that just beat UNLV and will likely win the Big West - I'm just beyond impressed right now. They're extremely balanced, have a great mix of inside/outside scoring, and are very efficient on both ends of the court. About their only weakness is they don't have a true point guard who plays much, but everyone can handle the ball so they'll probably be ok there. I don't know what odds you'd find at your favorite online betting site, but I can still find 40-1 on them to win the NCAA Championship on mine. I recommend you jump on it.
3. Gonzaga Bulldogs. About time. After whiffing on every opportunity to get a quality win - they lost versus San Diego State, Kansas State, Illinois, Washington State, and Notre Dame - they finally got something to show off in March with a big win over Baylor in Dallas, a semi-road game. Couple this with their win over Marquette, and the Zags are suddenly looking to be in decent shape after being a bit of a concern even last week. They play Xavier, UL-Lafayette, Oklahoma State, and Wake Forest before starting WCC play. ULL and Wake should be gimmes, so if they can split the Xavier/OSU games (and they should, and a sweep is probably likely since both are in Spokane) that would put them at 9-6 with three quality wins going into conference games. With that schedule and those wins they would probably just have to go 11-3 or even 10-4 to get an at-large. Shouldn't be an issue.
4. Kevin Love. I don't write a lot of NBA here - because it sucks until the playoffs - but just how freaking sweet is K-Love? His point/rebs by game this week were: 13 & 14, 23 & 16, 19 & 17, and 43 & 17. Freaking 43 and 17. Wow. He's a 40% 3-point shooter, a decent offensive player inside the paint, and the best rebounder the NBA has seen since Rodman. Other than your physical tools (which Love is lacking in, as was Rodman) there are two things that can make you an elite level rebounder - an understanding of where the ball is likely to go (positioning) and a hunger to be the one who gets the ball (effort). Love has both in spades, and has used those tools to. I don't know about you, but I'd probably find somewhere to do some basketball betting and just take the over on Love's rebounds in every single game.
5. Kansas City Royals. If you're going to trade an ace this is how you do it. They shipped Zack Greinke and his anti-anxiety medication over to Milwaukee in return for SPs Jeremy Jeffress and Jake Odorizzi, SS Alcides Escobar, and CF Lorenzo Cain. The Royals are thought to have one of the, if not the, best farm systems in the league right now, and they just got better. Perusing some lists, the two starting pitchers they just got are generally ranked in the top 3 in the Brewers' system, Escobar is thought to be a future star at SS even if he didn't exactly have a great first season last year, and Cain is a "toolsy" center fielder of the future type of player. In short, it was a haul for a team that is already loaded for the future. Twins better win now, because starting in about 2013 the Royals' dynasty is ON. (NOTE: Milwaukee also better win now, because between this trade and the Lawrie for Marcum trade they have essentially killed their future).
WHO SUCKED
1. Tennessee Volunteers. There were quite a few teams who had bad losses this week, but nobody can touch the disaster that was the Vols. Two games this week - vs. Oakland and @ Charlotte - and two losses. the Oakland game is rough, because although the Golden Grizzlies are an NCAA caliber team, they've been unable to crab a real impressive win, losing to West Virginia, Illinois, Michigan State, and Purdue. Then the Charlotte loss...oof. The 49ers are, frankly, pretty awful, coming into the game at 4-6 with losses to Gardner-Webb and East Carolina, and they just kicked Shamari Spears, their leading scorer, off the team. Tennessee has shown how good they can be with wins over Villanova and Pitt, and have now shown how bad they can be as well. And that's pretty much their outlook for the season as well, they could easily be an elite 8 team or a team that gets bounced in the first round. Or, hell, and NIT team. That's what I predicted for them going into the season so let's go for that.
2. Kansas State Wildcats. Honestly I thought the Wildcats were a bit overrated coming into this year, but I didn't say too much because I though tthey were overrated last year and then they made the elite 8 so I figured maybe I was wrong. But now if you look at their results this year it's kind meh. Their only two notable wins - over Virginia Tech and Gonzaga - both look worse than they did at the time because both of those teams are struggling, and getting blown out by Florida on Saturday certainly doesn't help things. So it is now a fact - Kansas State sucks. Also I'm pretty sure their coach could get you wacked with one phone call.
3. Illinois Fighting Illini. Well, it's safe to say Ohio State is now the class of the Big 10, and it's not even close (although I'm sure Michigan State will get there by March). After building a nice resume thus far with the only blemish that overtime loss to Texas in New York, the Illini froze up and locked up versus Illinois-Chicago and Paul Carter this weekend, losing 57-54 in a game where the final 15 seconds saw them miss three shots and turn the ball over twice. I still don't trust McCamey, and this is exactly why. I'm sorry, he's just not really a point guard. He's just not. I know he has a ton of assists but he's not a point guard. This team has first round NCAA loss written all over it.
4. Josh Selby. It's a bit of a stretch to say he sucks considering he was a freshman playing in his first ever game and scored 21 points including the game-winning three pointer, but there are some warning signs here. First off, he's a point guard but finished with just 1 assist compared to four turnovers. Secondly, he pushes Elijah Johnson (5 points, 2.5 assists vs. just 1.4 TOs in 15 minutes per game) to the end of the bench, as well as Travis Releford (better than a 2-1 assist to TO ratio). All that helped lead the Jayhawks to a game against USC where they registered just 13 assists versus 12 turnovers for a team that was averaging 20 vs. 13 going into the game. It could just be a bad game for the team, or it could just that it takes some time to gel and get used to playing with a brand new teammate. Or, it could be that one of the best team's in the country, one whose strength was their balance and ball movement, just brought in a ball sync. We shall see.
5. Big Ten naming controversy. Seriously? So the Big Ten announces they are going to name the divisions the Leaders and Legends, people freak out, and now they might change the names? I don't know what's more pathetic, the Big Ten for rolling over and possibly changing the names less than a week after they were announced or the pathetic souls out there who actually care about something as meaningless as division names so, so much that it drives them to write letters and bitch to such a magnitude that it gets the Big Ten to actually reconsider. So sad. It's division names, people. God.
And with the teams in each division already set, how much better are you really going to get? You can't do geographic names, no matter how many national talk show hosts who don't have a clue what's going on keep saying it, and you can't do anything cute like "Great Lakes" and "Heartland" because, again, morons, the team groupings are already set. So good luck coming up with anything better than Leaders and Legends, because it doesn't matter what they do, because the guys who drive their truck in team colors with two flags flying out the window and the personalized "OSU4EVA" license plates are going to send their emails from the library (I assume they can't afford computers) and write their letters (most likely in crayon) and bitch because for some sad, inexplicable, pathetic reason, what the Big Ten names it's divisions is really, really fucking important.
Last thing I want to say now that I'm all riled up that I am not a fan of this Nishioka signing. I can't exactly hate it, because it's a nice cheapish investment, but I would rather have JJ Hardy. And since the choice was basically Hardy/Nishioka vs. Nishioka/Casilla, this move will be evaluated on a Casilla vs. Hardy basis, so it doesn't quite matter as much that Nishi is going to probably end up a mediocre fielding slap hitter. Just like Casilla. God what an awesome middle infield combo. It's like somebody finally answered my prayers and cloned Nick Punto and let the Twins have both of them as a reward for their constant scrappiness and fundamentalsitude. $20 says Nishi is a slide into firster.
1. On the ride home I sat next to this young woman probably in her early twenties. Throughout the entire three and a half hour flight she didn't nap. She also didn't read. She didn't have a computer. She didn't do a crossword or sudoku book. She declined a drink when they came by to offer a complimentary beverage. She never went to the bathroom. She never spoke to anyone. No, she did nothing except stare straight ahead and blink for 3 and a half hours. Absolutely bizarre and kind of creepy. She's either a genius who needs nothing more than her brain to be entertained, or dumb as hell with an empty head. I have my suspicions.
2. If you are ever in California you absolutely have to check out In-and-Out Burger. Absolutely the best burger ever, excellent fries, and it's all at a near fast-food (but it's not fast food) pace. Get yourself a double-double and order it animal style. You won't regret it. So freaking good. Anyway, on to the real stuff.
WHO WAS AWESOME
1. UCLA Bruins. Still not exactly sure what to make of the Pac-10, and I'm still pretty sure they mostly suck, but UCLA picked up a huge win this weekend knocking off BYU (previously undefeated) in Anaheim at the Wooden Classic. They won by forcing the Cougars into 19 turnovers, 7 by Jimmer Fredette, and got a huge game out of Reeves Nelson, who looks like a nerd but plays like white jesus. This win, along with the Bruins hanging with Kansas right to the wire earlier this year, shows that the Bruins have the capability to compete with Washington and Arizona at the top of this conference. They also have the capability to get swept by the Oregon schools. Buyer beware.
2. San Diego State Aztecs. It's not so much that they got a big win this week, but they're still undefeated (now 12-0) and the way they dismantled Santa Barbara by 26 - the same Gauchos team that just beat UNLV and will likely win the Big West - I'm just beyond impressed right now. They're extremely balanced, have a great mix of inside/outside scoring, and are very efficient on both ends of the court. About their only weakness is they don't have a true point guard who plays much, but everyone can handle the ball so they'll probably be ok there. I don't know what odds you'd find at your favorite online betting site, but I can still find 40-1 on them to win the NCAA Championship on mine. I recommend you jump on it.
3. Gonzaga Bulldogs. About time. After whiffing on every opportunity to get a quality win - they lost versus San Diego State, Kansas State, Illinois, Washington State, and Notre Dame - they finally got something to show off in March with a big win over Baylor in Dallas, a semi-road game. Couple this with their win over Marquette, and the Zags are suddenly looking to be in decent shape after being a bit of a concern even last week. They play Xavier, UL-Lafayette, Oklahoma State, and Wake Forest before starting WCC play. ULL and Wake should be gimmes, so if they can split the Xavier/OSU games (and they should, and a sweep is probably likely since both are in Spokane) that would put them at 9-6 with three quality wins going into conference games. With that schedule and those wins they would probably just have to go 11-3 or even 10-4 to get an at-large. Shouldn't be an issue.
4. Kevin Love. I don't write a lot of NBA here - because it sucks until the playoffs - but just how freaking sweet is K-Love? His point/rebs by game this week were: 13 & 14, 23 & 16, 19 & 17, and 43 & 17. Freaking 43 and 17. Wow. He's a 40% 3-point shooter, a decent offensive player inside the paint, and the best rebounder the NBA has seen since Rodman. Other than your physical tools (which Love is lacking in, as was Rodman) there are two things that can make you an elite level rebounder - an understanding of where the ball is likely to go (positioning) and a hunger to be the one who gets the ball (effort). Love has both in spades, and has used those tools to. I don't know about you, but I'd probably find somewhere to do some basketball betting and just take the over on Love's rebounds in every single game.
5. Kansas City Royals. If you're going to trade an ace this is how you do it. They shipped Zack Greinke and his anti-anxiety medication over to Milwaukee in return for SPs Jeremy Jeffress and Jake Odorizzi, SS Alcides Escobar, and CF Lorenzo Cain. The Royals are thought to have one of the, if not the, best farm systems in the league right now, and they just got better. Perusing some lists, the two starting pitchers they just got are generally ranked in the top 3 in the Brewers' system, Escobar is thought to be a future star at SS even if he didn't exactly have a great first season last year, and Cain is a "toolsy" center fielder of the future type of player. In short, it was a haul for a team that is already loaded for the future. Twins better win now, because starting in about 2013 the Royals' dynasty is ON. (NOTE: Milwaukee also better win now, because between this trade and the Lawrie for Marcum trade they have essentially killed their future).
WHO SUCKED
1. Tennessee Volunteers. There were quite a few teams who had bad losses this week, but nobody can touch the disaster that was the Vols. Two games this week - vs. Oakland and @ Charlotte - and two losses. the Oakland game is rough, because although the Golden Grizzlies are an NCAA caliber team, they've been unable to crab a real impressive win, losing to West Virginia, Illinois, Michigan State, and Purdue. Then the Charlotte loss...oof. The 49ers are, frankly, pretty awful, coming into the game at 4-6 with losses to Gardner-Webb and East Carolina, and they just kicked Shamari Spears, their leading scorer, off the team. Tennessee has shown how good they can be with wins over Villanova and Pitt, and have now shown how bad they can be as well. And that's pretty much their outlook for the season as well, they could easily be an elite 8 team or a team that gets bounced in the first round. Or, hell, and NIT team. That's what I predicted for them going into the season so let's go for that.
2. Kansas State Wildcats. Honestly I thought the Wildcats were a bit overrated coming into this year, but I didn't say too much because I though tthey were overrated last year and then they made the elite 8 so I figured maybe I was wrong. But now if you look at their results this year it's kind meh. Their only two notable wins - over Virginia Tech and Gonzaga - both look worse than they did at the time because both of those teams are struggling, and getting blown out by Florida on Saturday certainly doesn't help things. So it is now a fact - Kansas State sucks. Also I'm pretty sure their coach could get you wacked with one phone call.
3. Illinois Fighting Illini. Well, it's safe to say Ohio State is now the class of the Big 10, and it's not even close (although I'm sure Michigan State will get there by March). After building a nice resume thus far with the only blemish that overtime loss to Texas in New York, the Illini froze up and locked up versus Illinois-Chicago and Paul Carter this weekend, losing 57-54 in a game where the final 15 seconds saw them miss three shots and turn the ball over twice. I still don't trust McCamey, and this is exactly why. I'm sorry, he's just not really a point guard. He's just not. I know he has a ton of assists but he's not a point guard. This team has first round NCAA loss written all over it.
4. Josh Selby. It's a bit of a stretch to say he sucks considering he was a freshman playing in his first ever game and scored 21 points including the game-winning three pointer, but there are some warning signs here. First off, he's a point guard but finished with just 1 assist compared to four turnovers. Secondly, he pushes Elijah Johnson (5 points, 2.5 assists vs. just 1.4 TOs in 15 minutes per game) to the end of the bench, as well as Travis Releford (better than a 2-1 assist to TO ratio). All that helped lead the Jayhawks to a game against USC where they registered just 13 assists versus 12 turnovers for a team that was averaging 20 vs. 13 going into the game. It could just be a bad game for the team, or it could just that it takes some time to gel and get used to playing with a brand new teammate. Or, it could be that one of the best team's in the country, one whose strength was their balance and ball movement, just brought in a ball sync. We shall see.
5. Big Ten naming controversy. Seriously? So the Big Ten announces they are going to name the divisions the Leaders and Legends, people freak out, and now they might change the names? I don't know what's more pathetic, the Big Ten for rolling over and possibly changing the names less than a week after they were announced or the pathetic souls out there who actually care about something as meaningless as division names so, so much that it drives them to write letters and bitch to such a magnitude that it gets the Big Ten to actually reconsider. So sad. It's division names, people. God.
And with the teams in each division already set, how much better are you really going to get? You can't do geographic names, no matter how many national talk show hosts who don't have a clue what's going on keep saying it, and you can't do anything cute like "Great Lakes" and "Heartland" because, again, morons, the team groupings are already set. So good luck coming up with anything better than Leaders and Legends, because it doesn't matter what they do, because the guys who drive their truck in team colors with two flags flying out the window and the personalized "OSU4EVA" license plates are going to send their emails from the library (I assume they can't afford computers) and write their letters (most likely in crayon) and bitch because for some sad, inexplicable, pathetic reason, what the Big Ten names it's divisions is really, really fucking important.
Last thing I want to say now that I'm all riled up that I am not a fan of this Nishioka signing. I can't exactly hate it, because it's a nice cheapish investment, but I would rather have JJ Hardy. And since the choice was basically Hardy/Nishioka vs. Nishioka/Casilla, this move will be evaluated on a Casilla vs. Hardy basis, so it doesn't quite matter as much that Nishi is going to probably end up a mediocre fielding slap hitter. Just like Casilla. God what an awesome middle infield combo. It's like somebody finally answered my prayers and cloned Nick Punto and let the Twins have both of them as a reward for their constant scrappiness and fundamentalsitude. $20 says Nishi is a slide into firster.
Tuesday, November 30, 2010
NCAA Basketball: Thanksgiving Tournament Wrap
A hell of a lot of good basketball just wrapped up with the pre-Thanksgiving and Thanksgiving tournaments the last two weeks, so much so that it would be easy to miss some of the important stuff, especially with all the drinking and eating and football watching and generally being a complete moron doing really stupid stuff going on. So I'm here to help. Tournament by tournament, here's what you need to know:
PUERTO RICO TIP OFF
Championship: Minnesota Gophers over West Virginia Mountaineers
Biggest positive: Minnesota. I wasn't really sure where they'd fall in the Big Ten pecking order. Somewhere in the middle, likely, but towards the top of that middle or towards the bottom? Well, wins over three potential tournament teams help answer that and push the Gophers towards the top of the conference.
Biggest negative: North Carolina Tar Heels. A year after the worst season for UNC in recent memory, the Tar Heels started this year with a lot of positivity and a lofty #8 ranking the country, but losses to both Minnesota and Vanderbilt show that this team isn't quite there yet. A loss to one or the other could be shrugged off, since both are possible NCAA Tournament teams, but losses to both sends up a bit of a red flag.
Also of note: Davidson 64, Western Kentucky 51. This game, as well as WKU's narrow 2-point win over Hofstra, say that the Hilltoppers aren't going to be making the NCAA Tournament as at at-large.
NIT SEASON TIP OFF
Championship: Tennessee Volunteers over Villanova Wildcats
Biggest positive: Tennessee. All their losses from last season had me convinced they were badly overrated and would be in the NIT at best this year, and then all the Bruce Pearl nonsense solidified that thought for me. Turns out their better than I gave them credit for, and the combination of super freshman Tobias Harris on the inside and dynamic scorers Cameron Tatum and Scotty Hopson on the wings is looking like enough to drive the Vols to success.
Biggest negative: Wake Forest Demon Deacons. "Wait, I didn't see them in New York" is what you might be saying, and you're right, but that's because they got bounced out of the qualifying round - the "gimme" round held on their home floor. Of course they also drew Virginia Commonwealth who was probably the favorite to come out of that region, but it just confirms that this is going to be a dark, dark year in Winston-Salem. If this loss to VCU (by 21, if I didn't mention it) doesn't cement it, the earlier loss to Stetson and subsequent loss to Winthrop (both also at home) are pretty big clues. But the biggest clue? Iowa was favored over them in their ACC/Big Ten Challenge matchup tonight, and the game was at Wake.
Also of note: VCU 89, UCLA 85. Not content with just getting to New York, VCU then went ahead and beat UCLA to nab a third-place finish. That's going to go a long way in getting the Colonial multiple bids this year.
COACHES VS CANCER CLASSIC
Championship: Pitt Panthers over Texas Longhorns
Biggest positive: Texas. Last year the Longhorns had all the talent in the world, were ranked #1 at one point, and then death spiraled down and didn't even receive an NCAA bid. This year saw a lot of turnover, and I'm not sure anybody really knew what to expect, as usual with a Rick Barnes team. Beating Illinois and then hanging right with Pitt before losing by two shows they have some talent, it's just a matter of if they put it all together.
Biggest negative: Cory Joseph. In the two games in New York, Joseph shot just 3-13, including 0-4 from three, with 5 assists and 3 turnovers, and threw up a ridiculous shot at the end of the final with the Longhorns down two when he thought he had been fouled in an attempt to get to free throw line. The ref disagreed, and he threw away Texas's chance to win.
Also of note: Maryland Terrapins. They went 0-2 in New York, but they weren't expected to win either game. Losing to Pitt by nine and to Illinois by four bodes well for the Terps' chances in ACC play.
MAUI INVITATIONAL
Championship: Connecticut Huskies over Kentucky Wildcats
Biggest positive: Kemba Walker. Coming into this tournament nobody was really sure what to make of UCONN. Sure, they'd be a middle of the road Big East team most likely, but where would that really put them in the overall pecking order? Well, Walker carried them on his back to the title here with games of 31, 30, and 29 points, and made sure everybody knew that he was good enough, and had enough talent around him, to make the Huskies a threat.
Biggest negative: Oklahoma Sooners. Eesh. The Sooners looked decent in their opener, hanging with Kentucky, but completely fell apart from there. First, they lost by 18 to a terrible Virginia squad who just go rolled by Washington by 40+, then they lost to Chaminade, the little host school who had won just five times in the 26 years prior of the tournament's existence. Not only did they go down, but they went down bickering amongst themselves. This is going to be a long year in Norman.
Also of note: Wichita State goes 2-1, but leaves disappointed after blowing their opening round game against UCONN, a game they led by four with just four minutes to go. It would end up being the only resume-building opportunity the Shockers would get, matching up against Virginia and Chaminade in their final two. That could hurt come Selection Sunday.
CBE CLASSIC
Championship: Duke Blue Devils over Kansas State Wildcats
Biggest positive: Duke. I have no idea how anybody is going to beat this team. Marquette tried to go small to match Duke's quickness and whichever Plumlee it was destroyed them inside, then K-State tried to run with them and Duke ran 'em out of the gym. They are good inside (Plumlees), have great guards (Nolan Smith, the unguardable Kyrie Irving), and have dead-eye shooters who you can't leave to go help (Andre Dawkins, Seth Curry). And that's all without bothering to mention the ACC pre-season player of the year in Kyle Singler. Look out, because they have a chance to go undefeated. No, I'm not crazy.
Biggest negative: Duke. The exact paragraph I just wrote is actually more of a negative because I, and everybody with a soul, hates Duke.
Also of note: Gonzaga 66, Marquette 63. Marquette lost both games in Kansas City, first to Duke by five and then this one to the Zags by 3. Though those are both big missed opportunities, they also signal that for the second straight year a down year in Marquette might not be as down as we think.
OLD SPICE CLASSIC
Championship: Notre Dame Fighting Irish over Wisconsin Badgers
Biggest positive: Notre Dame. The Irish picked up two wins over NCAA caliber teams, beating both the Badgers for the title and Georgia in the opening round. It's very likely Temple and Texas A&M were the only other teams to even pick up one in Orlando.
Biggest negative: Temple. As noted, the Owls did pick up a win over Georgia that looks good, but losses to both Cal and Texas A&M are huge negatives. A&M might be a bubble team, so that one will hurt, and Cal is likely to be a bottom of the barrel Pac-10 team while the Pac-10 is likely to be a bottom of the barrel conference. The Owls were supposed to be the class of the A-10, but they sure didn't play like it.
Also of note: Notre Dame 58, Wisconsin 51. The Badgers came into Orlando with a chance to pick up some nice victories, but Boston College's win over Texas A&M took that game off the board, and Wisconsin blew their chance against the Irish. They come without a high profile win to show-off in March.
CHARLESTON CLASSIC
Championship: Georgetown Hoyas over North Carolina State Wolfpack
Biggest positive: Georgetown. This wasn't exactly a murderer's row of teams, but beating Big South favorite Coastal Carolina by 19, SoCon favorite Wofford by 15, and a very good NC State team by 15 is a pretty nice weekend. The Hoyas will be good, and in an odd-twist, guard dominated - their three top scorers are all guards.
Biggest negative: George Mason Patriots. There's been a lot of early season success out of the Colonial Conference so far this year (VCU, Old Dominion), but George Mason whiffed on their chance to join in by losing to Wofford in the third-place game. It's not an awful loss, but when you're a mid-major you need to win every one of these types of games to have a shot at a bid.
Also of note: Wofford 82, George Mason 79. I already mentioned this above as a negative for GMU, but it's a definite positive for the Terriers. They have a brutal early schedule, but unfortunately missed out on a chance for an even bigger win by losing to Xavier in triple-overtime last week. The 2-5 record also includes a loss to lowly Air Force, so an ambitious schedule goes for naught and Wofford will need to win their way in if they want to play in the NCAAs.
PARADISE JAM
Championship: Old Dominion Monarchs over Xavier Musketeers
Biggest positive: ODU. This is what you need to do if you're a mid-major hoping to be in at-large consideration come March. The Monarchs won the Paradise Jam Championship, beating St. Peter's (doesn't matter), Clemson (possible tournament team), and Xavier (very likely tournament team). That is two huge wins, and assuming they don't falter in a strong Colonial ODU is in great shape.
Biggest negative: Alabama Crimson Tide. From NCAA possibilities to the bottom of the league, the Tide embarrassed themselves, losing to Seton Hall (acceptable), Iowa (not acceptable), and St. Peter's (abominable). Remember in Monson's last year or almost last year when the Gophers went to the Old Spice Classic and went 0-3, including a loss to Montana? This is like that.
Also of note: Clemson 64, Seton Hall 58. Two teams that will likely find themselves in similar spots come year's end, this third place game could mean the difference between NCAA and NIT.
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND INVITATIONAL
Championship: BYU Cougars over St. Mary's Gaels
Biggest positive: BYU. It's questionable how much the two wins BYU picked up will really help them because I'm not sure South Florida or St. Mary's are tournament teams, but the way in which the Cougars won could be valuable in March. The win over South Florida went to double OT before BYU hit a game-winner, and then the win over the Gaels was a one point victory on a 3-pointer by the Jimmer with 10 seconds left. That kind of late game experience could pay-off big.
Biggest negative: Texas Tech. The obvious choice as a downer since they were the team that went 0-2, it's sad for Tech because they have an experienced team with postseason aspirations, but getting blown out by St. Mary's and then blowing the lead against USF late says they suck.
Also of note: Liberty 67, Chicago State 65. This tournament has two brackets, a good one and a crappy one, and Liberty won the crappy one. I can't think of a single reason why that's remotely noteworthy.
76 CLASSIC
Championship: UNLV Runnin' Rebels over Virginia Tech Hokies
Biggest positive: UNLV. Wins over both Virginia Tech and Oklahoma State give the Rebels two quality victories. Since the Mountain West is likely to be very solid again with four very good teams, even if they beat up on each other the Rebels are in good position to nab an NCAA bid once again.
Biggest negative: Murray State Racers. Murray State has been tabbed as this year's Butler - not a bad call considering there stellar play in March last year and that they have essentially that whole team back - but they missed out on a big opportunity here. After beating Stanford in round 1 they lost to both UNLV and Oklahoma State in the next two rounds, and neither game was close. With their earlier loss to Ole Miss and nothing really left on the schedule outside of the Ohio Valley conference games their hopes at an at-large disappeared this weekend.
Also of note: Virginia Tech 56, Oklahoma State 51. The Hokies have missed the tournament the past two years due to weak non-conference scheduling and a lack of quality out-of-conference wins. This at least gives them one good victory - more than they had either of the last two years.
CHICAGO INVITATIONAL CHALLENGE
Championship: Richmond Spiders over Purdue Boilermakers
Biggest positive: Richmond. The Spiders were supposed to be at the top of the Atlantic-10 this year and were considered a very likely NCAA Tournament team. An early loss to Iona, however, had experts like me questioning if this was just another in a long line of A-10 "sleepers" who were actually not very good. This win over Purdue helps put some of that unease to rest.
Biggest negative: Purdue. No surprise here, this was set-up as basically a coronation for Purdue, but Richmond spoiled that, and that's not good for the Boilers.
Also of note: Wright State 82, Oakland 79. Oakland (which is in Michigan) is supposed to be a mid-major sleeper due to the presence of seven-footer Keith Benson, but if you can't even beat Wright State...I mean, come on.
LEGENDS CLASSIC
Championship: Syracuse Orange over Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets
Biggest positive: Georgia Tech. They aren't going to make the NCAA tournament or anything, but the Yellow Jackets needed some positives after losing to lowly Kennesaw State early this year and looking like they might be nothing more than a big joke this season. Blowing out Albany and Niagara in the early rounds, beating UTEP in the semis, and then losing to the Cuse by just four in the final is a step in the right direction.
Biggest negative: Michigan Wolverines. Michigan started the year playing well, beating up on the cupcakes and then even hung tough with Syracuse in the semis, leading for most of the game before losing by just four. Unfortunately, instead of still salvaging something they ended up losing to UTEP in the third place game instead.
Also of note: Detroit Titans. There was a second, consolation regional held in Michigan, and Detroit won it by beating Albany, Bowling Green, and Niagara in consecutive days. Even if it's not exactly a murderer's row of opponents it's still a nice little run and was highlighted by former Indiana Hoosier Eli Holman who put up a double-double in each game. Detroit is a nice little sleeper in the Horizon.
LAS VEGAS INVITATIONAL
Championship: Kansas Jayhawks over Arizona Wildcats
Biggest positive: Kansas. The Jayhawks stomped MAC favorite Ohio, easily handled a very good Arizona team, now rank sixth in the polls and first according to Ken Pomeroy's tempo-free stats (www.kenpom.com). And they've done all this without the services of their top recruit Josh Selby. When he finally starts playing this team is an instant title contender. Of course, some times a high profile freshman disrupts chemistry to a point where the team gets worse, so let's hope for a little Kris Humphries/Stephon Marbury from Selby.
Biggest negative: Nobody, really. Everybody finished where they should, the good teams stomped the bad, and nobody's play stood out as exceptionally poor. If you had to pick one negative, go with Ohio. Last year's upset winner over Georgetown in the first round of the tournament was picked to win their conference again, and losing by 57 to Kansas is certainly not what they had in mind.
Also of note: Solomon Hill. Arizona has one of the best player's in the country in Derrick Williams, but he can't do it himself. If Hill can play like he did against Santa Clara (20 pts) rather than how he did against Kansas (9 pts) more often, Arizona will have a much better chance of getting back to the NCAA Tournament.
GREAT ALASKA SHOOTOUT
Championship: St. Johns Red Storm over Arizona State Sun Devils
Biggest positive: St. Johns, my Big East sleeper pick, started the season questionably enough, losing to St. Mary's, but handled themselves nicely in Alaska by going 3-0. With no other possible NCAA Tournament teams in this field, the Red Storm basically had to win this tournament. And they did.
Biggest negative: Ball State. Not that Ball State is supposed to be anything (it's been a long time since Theron Smith), but it's never good to lose to non-Division I squad, and the Cardinals were dropped by the host Alaska-Anchorage, and in embarrassing fashion, 62-44.
Also of note: Weber State 82, Drake 81. Weber State won't be an at-large NCAA team, but they are considered the favorites to come out of the Big Sky, and taking third place in Alaska is a solid outing for this team. Plus Mrs. W went to Weber State for a year and I visit Ogden almost yearly, so it's always nice to give them a little pub.
And that should pretty well cover it. There were a few others, but really nobody cares who wins the Cancun Challenge or the Philly Hoop Group Classic because the teams involved are irrelevant, and I think I've typed just about enough for one evening. There are a bunch more of these tournaments coming up around Christmas-time, including a couple involving Big Ten representation (Northwestern in the MSG Holiday Festival and Indiana in the Las Vegas Classic) so I might recap them after the holidays. By then I'm pretty sure there will be nothing left to care about as far as the Gophers are concerned. That team is absolute garbage.
PUERTO RICO TIP OFF
Championship: Minnesota Gophers over West Virginia Mountaineers
Biggest positive: Minnesota. I wasn't really sure where they'd fall in the Big Ten pecking order. Somewhere in the middle, likely, but towards the top of that middle or towards the bottom? Well, wins over three potential tournament teams help answer that and push the Gophers towards the top of the conference.
Biggest negative: North Carolina Tar Heels. A year after the worst season for UNC in recent memory, the Tar Heels started this year with a lot of positivity and a lofty #8 ranking the country, but losses to both Minnesota and Vanderbilt show that this team isn't quite there yet. A loss to one or the other could be shrugged off, since both are possible NCAA Tournament teams, but losses to both sends up a bit of a red flag.
Also of note: Davidson 64, Western Kentucky 51. This game, as well as WKU's narrow 2-point win over Hofstra, say that the Hilltoppers aren't going to be making the NCAA Tournament as at at-large.
NIT SEASON TIP OFF
Championship: Tennessee Volunteers over Villanova Wildcats
Biggest positive: Tennessee. All their losses from last season had me convinced they were badly overrated and would be in the NIT at best this year, and then all the Bruce Pearl nonsense solidified that thought for me. Turns out their better than I gave them credit for, and the combination of super freshman Tobias Harris on the inside and dynamic scorers Cameron Tatum and Scotty Hopson on the wings is looking like enough to drive the Vols to success.
Biggest negative: Wake Forest Demon Deacons. "Wait, I didn't see them in New York" is what you might be saying, and you're right, but that's because they got bounced out of the qualifying round - the "gimme" round held on their home floor. Of course they also drew Virginia Commonwealth who was probably the favorite to come out of that region, but it just confirms that this is going to be a dark, dark year in Winston-Salem. If this loss to VCU (by 21, if I didn't mention it) doesn't cement it, the earlier loss to Stetson and subsequent loss to Winthrop (both also at home) are pretty big clues. But the biggest clue? Iowa was favored over them in their ACC/Big Ten Challenge matchup tonight, and the game was at Wake.
Also of note: VCU 89, UCLA 85. Not content with just getting to New York, VCU then went ahead and beat UCLA to nab a third-place finish. That's going to go a long way in getting the Colonial multiple bids this year.
COACHES VS CANCER CLASSIC
Championship: Pitt Panthers over Texas Longhorns
Biggest positive: Texas. Last year the Longhorns had all the talent in the world, were ranked #1 at one point, and then death spiraled down and didn't even receive an NCAA bid. This year saw a lot of turnover, and I'm not sure anybody really knew what to expect, as usual with a Rick Barnes team. Beating Illinois and then hanging right with Pitt before losing by two shows they have some talent, it's just a matter of if they put it all together.
Biggest negative: Cory Joseph. In the two games in New York, Joseph shot just 3-13, including 0-4 from three, with 5 assists and 3 turnovers, and threw up a ridiculous shot at the end of the final with the Longhorns down two when he thought he had been fouled in an attempt to get to free throw line. The ref disagreed, and he threw away Texas's chance to win.
Also of note: Maryland Terrapins. They went 0-2 in New York, but they weren't expected to win either game. Losing to Pitt by nine and to Illinois by four bodes well for the Terps' chances in ACC play.
MAUI INVITATIONAL
Championship: Connecticut Huskies over Kentucky Wildcats
Biggest positive: Kemba Walker. Coming into this tournament nobody was really sure what to make of UCONN. Sure, they'd be a middle of the road Big East team most likely, but where would that really put them in the overall pecking order? Well, Walker carried them on his back to the title here with games of 31, 30, and 29 points, and made sure everybody knew that he was good enough, and had enough talent around him, to make the Huskies a threat.
Biggest negative: Oklahoma Sooners. Eesh. The Sooners looked decent in their opener, hanging with Kentucky, but completely fell apart from there. First, they lost by 18 to a terrible Virginia squad who just go rolled by Washington by 40+, then they lost to Chaminade, the little host school who had won just five times in the 26 years prior of the tournament's existence. Not only did they go down, but they went down bickering amongst themselves. This is going to be a long year in Norman.
Also of note: Wichita State goes 2-1, but leaves disappointed after blowing their opening round game against UCONN, a game they led by four with just four minutes to go. It would end up being the only resume-building opportunity the Shockers would get, matching up against Virginia and Chaminade in their final two. That could hurt come Selection Sunday.
CBE CLASSIC
Championship: Duke Blue Devils over Kansas State Wildcats
Biggest positive: Duke. I have no idea how anybody is going to beat this team. Marquette tried to go small to match Duke's quickness and whichever Plumlee it was destroyed them inside, then K-State tried to run with them and Duke ran 'em out of the gym. They are good inside (Plumlees), have great guards (Nolan Smith, the unguardable Kyrie Irving), and have dead-eye shooters who you can't leave to go help (Andre Dawkins, Seth Curry). And that's all without bothering to mention the ACC pre-season player of the year in Kyle Singler. Look out, because they have a chance to go undefeated. No, I'm not crazy.
Biggest negative: Duke. The exact paragraph I just wrote is actually more of a negative because I, and everybody with a soul, hates Duke.
Also of note: Gonzaga 66, Marquette 63. Marquette lost both games in Kansas City, first to Duke by five and then this one to the Zags by 3. Though those are both big missed opportunities, they also signal that for the second straight year a down year in Marquette might not be as down as we think.
OLD SPICE CLASSIC
Championship: Notre Dame Fighting Irish over Wisconsin Badgers
Biggest positive: Notre Dame. The Irish picked up two wins over NCAA caliber teams, beating both the Badgers for the title and Georgia in the opening round. It's very likely Temple and Texas A&M were the only other teams to even pick up one in Orlando.
Biggest negative: Temple. As noted, the Owls did pick up a win over Georgia that looks good, but losses to both Cal and Texas A&M are huge negatives. A&M might be a bubble team, so that one will hurt, and Cal is likely to be a bottom of the barrel Pac-10 team while the Pac-10 is likely to be a bottom of the barrel conference. The Owls were supposed to be the class of the A-10, but they sure didn't play like it.
Also of note: Notre Dame 58, Wisconsin 51. The Badgers came into Orlando with a chance to pick up some nice victories, but Boston College's win over Texas A&M took that game off the board, and Wisconsin blew their chance against the Irish. They come without a high profile win to show-off in March.
CHARLESTON CLASSIC
Championship: Georgetown Hoyas over North Carolina State Wolfpack
Biggest positive: Georgetown. This wasn't exactly a murderer's row of teams, but beating Big South favorite Coastal Carolina by 19, SoCon favorite Wofford by 15, and a very good NC State team by 15 is a pretty nice weekend. The Hoyas will be good, and in an odd-twist, guard dominated - their three top scorers are all guards.
Biggest negative: George Mason Patriots. There's been a lot of early season success out of the Colonial Conference so far this year (VCU, Old Dominion), but George Mason whiffed on their chance to join in by losing to Wofford in the third-place game. It's not an awful loss, but when you're a mid-major you need to win every one of these types of games to have a shot at a bid.
Also of note: Wofford 82, George Mason 79. I already mentioned this above as a negative for GMU, but it's a definite positive for the Terriers. They have a brutal early schedule, but unfortunately missed out on a chance for an even bigger win by losing to Xavier in triple-overtime last week. The 2-5 record also includes a loss to lowly Air Force, so an ambitious schedule goes for naught and Wofford will need to win their way in if they want to play in the NCAAs.
PARADISE JAM
Championship: Old Dominion Monarchs over Xavier Musketeers
Biggest positive: ODU. This is what you need to do if you're a mid-major hoping to be in at-large consideration come March. The Monarchs won the Paradise Jam Championship, beating St. Peter's (doesn't matter), Clemson (possible tournament team), and Xavier (very likely tournament team). That is two huge wins, and assuming they don't falter in a strong Colonial ODU is in great shape.
Biggest negative: Alabama Crimson Tide. From NCAA possibilities to the bottom of the league, the Tide embarrassed themselves, losing to Seton Hall (acceptable), Iowa (not acceptable), and St. Peter's (abominable). Remember in Monson's last year or almost last year when the Gophers went to the Old Spice Classic and went 0-3, including a loss to Montana? This is like that.
Also of note: Clemson 64, Seton Hall 58. Two teams that will likely find themselves in similar spots come year's end, this third place game could mean the difference between NCAA and NIT.
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND INVITATIONAL
Championship: BYU Cougars over St. Mary's Gaels
Biggest positive: BYU. It's questionable how much the two wins BYU picked up will really help them because I'm not sure South Florida or St. Mary's are tournament teams, but the way in which the Cougars won could be valuable in March. The win over South Florida went to double OT before BYU hit a game-winner, and then the win over the Gaels was a one point victory on a 3-pointer by the Jimmer with 10 seconds left. That kind of late game experience could pay-off big.
Biggest negative: Texas Tech. The obvious choice as a downer since they were the team that went 0-2, it's sad for Tech because they have an experienced team with postseason aspirations, but getting blown out by St. Mary's and then blowing the lead against USF late says they suck.
Also of note: Liberty 67, Chicago State 65. This tournament has two brackets, a good one and a crappy one, and Liberty won the crappy one. I can't think of a single reason why that's remotely noteworthy.
76 CLASSIC
Championship: UNLV Runnin' Rebels over Virginia Tech Hokies
Biggest positive: UNLV. Wins over both Virginia Tech and Oklahoma State give the Rebels two quality victories. Since the Mountain West is likely to be very solid again with four very good teams, even if they beat up on each other the Rebels are in good position to nab an NCAA bid once again.
Biggest negative: Murray State Racers. Murray State has been tabbed as this year's Butler - not a bad call considering there stellar play in March last year and that they have essentially that whole team back - but they missed out on a big opportunity here. After beating Stanford in round 1 they lost to both UNLV and Oklahoma State in the next two rounds, and neither game was close. With their earlier loss to Ole Miss and nothing really left on the schedule outside of the Ohio Valley conference games their hopes at an at-large disappeared this weekend.
Also of note: Virginia Tech 56, Oklahoma State 51. The Hokies have missed the tournament the past two years due to weak non-conference scheduling and a lack of quality out-of-conference wins. This at least gives them one good victory - more than they had either of the last two years.
CHICAGO INVITATIONAL CHALLENGE
Championship: Richmond Spiders over Purdue Boilermakers
Biggest positive: Richmond. The Spiders were supposed to be at the top of the Atlantic-10 this year and were considered a very likely NCAA Tournament team. An early loss to Iona, however, had experts like me questioning if this was just another in a long line of A-10 "sleepers" who were actually not very good. This win over Purdue helps put some of that unease to rest.
Biggest negative: Purdue. No surprise here, this was set-up as basically a coronation for Purdue, but Richmond spoiled that, and that's not good for the Boilers.
Also of note: Wright State 82, Oakland 79. Oakland (which is in Michigan) is supposed to be a mid-major sleeper due to the presence of seven-footer Keith Benson, but if you can't even beat Wright State...I mean, come on.
LEGENDS CLASSIC
Championship: Syracuse Orange over Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets
Biggest positive: Georgia Tech. They aren't going to make the NCAA tournament or anything, but the Yellow Jackets needed some positives after losing to lowly Kennesaw State early this year and looking like they might be nothing more than a big joke this season. Blowing out Albany and Niagara in the early rounds, beating UTEP in the semis, and then losing to the Cuse by just four in the final is a step in the right direction.
Biggest negative: Michigan Wolverines. Michigan started the year playing well, beating up on the cupcakes and then even hung tough with Syracuse in the semis, leading for most of the game before losing by just four. Unfortunately, instead of still salvaging something they ended up losing to UTEP in the third place game instead.
Also of note: Detroit Titans. There was a second, consolation regional held in Michigan, and Detroit won it by beating Albany, Bowling Green, and Niagara in consecutive days. Even if it's not exactly a murderer's row of opponents it's still a nice little run and was highlighted by former Indiana Hoosier Eli Holman who put up a double-double in each game. Detroit is a nice little sleeper in the Horizon.
LAS VEGAS INVITATIONAL
Championship: Kansas Jayhawks over Arizona Wildcats
Biggest positive: Kansas. The Jayhawks stomped MAC favorite Ohio, easily handled a very good Arizona team, now rank sixth in the polls and first according to Ken Pomeroy's tempo-free stats (www.kenpom.com). And they've done all this without the services of their top recruit Josh Selby. When he finally starts playing this team is an instant title contender. Of course, some times a high profile freshman disrupts chemistry to a point where the team gets worse, so let's hope for a little Kris Humphries/Stephon Marbury from Selby.
Biggest negative: Nobody, really. Everybody finished where they should, the good teams stomped the bad, and nobody's play stood out as exceptionally poor. If you had to pick one negative, go with Ohio. Last year's upset winner over Georgetown in the first round of the tournament was picked to win their conference again, and losing by 57 to Kansas is certainly not what they had in mind.
Also of note: Solomon Hill. Arizona has one of the best player's in the country in Derrick Williams, but he can't do it himself. If Hill can play like he did against Santa Clara (20 pts) rather than how he did against Kansas (9 pts) more often, Arizona will have a much better chance of getting back to the NCAA Tournament.
GREAT ALASKA SHOOTOUT
Championship: St. Johns Red Storm over Arizona State Sun Devils
Biggest positive: St. Johns, my Big East sleeper pick, started the season questionably enough, losing to St. Mary's, but handled themselves nicely in Alaska by going 3-0. With no other possible NCAA Tournament teams in this field, the Red Storm basically had to win this tournament. And they did.
Biggest negative: Ball State. Not that Ball State is supposed to be anything (it's been a long time since Theron Smith), but it's never good to lose to non-Division I squad, and the Cardinals were dropped by the host Alaska-Anchorage, and in embarrassing fashion, 62-44.
Also of note: Weber State 82, Drake 81. Weber State won't be an at-large NCAA team, but they are considered the favorites to come out of the Big Sky, and taking third place in Alaska is a solid outing for this team. Plus Mrs. W went to Weber State for a year and I visit Ogden almost yearly, so it's always nice to give them a little pub.
And that should pretty well cover it. There were a few others, but really nobody cares who wins the Cancun Challenge or the Philly Hoop Group Classic because the teams involved are irrelevant, and I think I've typed just about enough for one evening. There are a bunch more of these tournaments coming up around Christmas-time, including a couple involving Big Ten representation (Northwestern in the MSG Holiday Festival and Indiana in the Las Vegas Classic) so I might recap them after the holidays. By then I'm pretty sure there will be nothing left to care about as far as the Gophers are concerned. That team is absolute garbage.
Wednesday, October 27, 2010
SEC College Basketball 2010 Preview
There are good looking women in the SEC.
SEC EAST
1. Florida Gators. I'm not a huge fan of their guards, because I think both Erving Walker and Kenny Boynton can get a little too out of control and both have a tendency to shoot shots that they shan't be shooting, but there is not denying their talent and the Gators have a stellar front court. Chandler Parsons is a Mike Miller clone sans the bad hair and with a slightly worse jump shot (and he single-handedly won me my fantasy college hoops league last year) and Alex Tyus and Vernon Macklin are very good as long as you don't count free throws. In a down year for the SEC, the Gators are clearly the class of either division.
2. Kentucky Wildcats. In what I'm going to assume is about to become a tradition until Calipari is arrested for money laundering, Kentucky lost an assload of good players to the NBA but is reloading with an assload of talent. It's almost a perfect job of recruiting, actually, because these guys are not only talented but cover all five positions: You have PG Brandon Knight (Rivals #6 overall), SG Doron Lamb (#21), SF Stacey Poole (#33), PF Terrence Jones (#13), and C Enes Kanter (#3 overall). Of course, the biggest question is if Kanter will end up eligible, because they aren't particularly strong on the interior without him, but this year will be plenty athletic and is near-perfectly built for the dribble-drive offense Calipari loves. I'd consider this #2 prediction their downside. Well, the actual downside was it turns out Cal has been cheating (NO WAY) and they kick everybody off the team or something. That would probably be worse.
3. Georgia Bulldogs. Georgia may very well be on their way back to relevance, believe it or not. Travis Leslie is an absolute stud, and what Rodney Williams should aspire to become, and they have the league's leading returning scorer and rebounder in power forward Trey Thompkins. These guys should be two of the best players in the conference, but what makes this team really interesting are a couple of newcomers: freshman forward Marcus Thornton and point guard transfer from Tennessee State Gerald Robinson. Thornton could be a great one, with both size and athleticism, and Robinson is the kind of scoring point guard (averaged 15 and 18 points per game in his two years at TSU) who can end up making or breaking a team. I consider these guys a solid sleeper this year.
4. Tennessee Volunteers. I don't exactly know how Bruce Pearl being a huge cheater is going to affect this team, but they're a bit of an enigma already so this doesn't help with the rubix cube here. I've seen them ranked anywhere from 2nd to 4th in various previews, and with three major contributors and starters gone (four if you want to count Tyler Smith) the second place predictions seems awfully optimistic to me. I guess it really depends on how good you think freshman point guard Tobias Harris can be (Rivals #7), and how much of an improvement Cameron Tatum and/or Scottie Hopson can make. I think those three will be pretty studly, but they're all perimeter guys and the Vols are going to be weak on the interior. Plus I wouldn't surprised if Pearl is dismissed/suspended/whatever and this whole thing collapses.
5. Vanderbilt Commodores. If Northwestern is the nerds of midwest, and Stanford is the nerds of the west coast, then Vanderbilt is the nerds of the southeast. And for nerds, they've had a pretty good run of success lately, making the NCAA Tournament three of the last four years with a sweet16 appearance thrown in. This looking like it's going to be a down year, however, with two double-digit scorers (center A.J. Ogilvy and point guard Jermaine Beal) lost to graduation, but they've built the kind of program at this point where they'll be back soon enough. Sophomore Jeffery Taylor is one of the most athletically gifted players in the conference and should blossom with an increased role on offense, and classmate John Jenkins is a three-point marksman who hit nearly 50% of his threes last year on his way to averaging double-digit points per game. And they're probably all really smart, too. NERDS!!!
6. South Carolina Gamecocks. Remember Devan Downey? He and his 22 points per game have graduated. Along with Dominique Archie (who only played five games last year due to injury) and his 14.4 ppg, Mike Holmes (who only played in seven before being kicked off the team) and his 9.4, and Brandin Raley-Ross and his 10.6. So yes, they're losing a lot. They still have a decent enough inside/outside combo in Ramon Galloway and Sam Muldrow, but let's just say if they were an NBA Jam combo they'd never get picked outside of South Carolina. Coach Darrin Horn loves to play an uptempo style, but with just Galloway and Lakeem Jackson back with significant back court experience, he'll be relying on newcomers and although it's a good class, that's not generally a sign of success. This isn't Kentucky.
SEC WEST
1. Mississippi State Bulldogs. It sucks that Jarvis Varnado graduated, because that guy was as fun to watch as anybody so pardon me if I'm weeping like a fat girl at a prom with no cake while I type this, but the Bulldogs have enough coming back to win their division and make the tournament, mostly because the defied the odds and went 2-0 against the NCAA fascists this offseason. Dee Bost, last year's #3 scorer at 13.2 ppg, declared for the NBA draft, then pulled his name out after the deadline, and instead of following it's own rules they are letting him back to play another year after sitting out the first handful of games. He'll be joined on the suspended bench to start the year by PF Renardo Sidney, last year's #16 ranked freshman by Rivals who sat out of all of last season during an NCAA investigation into something or other, but he'll be playing after a nine game timeout. Add these two to Ravern Johnson, their leading returning scorer, and Miss State should be dancing this year. With a big thanks to the NCAA for actually being reasonable, not exactly their strong suit. It's probably in recognition of how much it sucks to lose Varnado.
2. Mississippi Rebels. Chris Warren is back, again (he's apparently under the Jess Settles plan), but he loses his two back court buddies (Eniel Polynice and Terrico White) who combined to give the Rebels one of the best three-man back courts in the country amongst teams who didn't make the NCAA tournament last year. He won't be alone back there, however, because Ole Miss will welcome one of the best names in the country to the program in point guard Dundrecous Nelson (#89 Rivals), as well as Nick Williams, a transfer from Indiana who averaged nearly double-digit points in his year with the Hoosiers. If the Rebs can get some help in the front court they could finally bust through the bubble and make their first NCAA Tournament since 2002. Gotta be sick of being predicted to be a tournament team only to end up in the NIT, no?
3. Arkansas Razorbacks. Mike Pelphrey continues to grab good recruiting classes, but at the same time there seems to be sort of an undercurrent that things might not be all rosy, or maybe that's just the Courtney Fortson affect. And speaking of Fortson, I think I'm pretty glad he never ended up a Gopher, because it seems he may have been just as good at killing his team as he was at helping it. In any case, Pelphrey has this program humming like a good ole fashioned jug band drinkin' moonshine while prepping for a coon hunt. And if that sounded racist against southerners, it probably was. I've been to Arkansas.
4. Alabama Crimson Tide. Mikhail Torrance was an absolute stud for the Tide last year. Unfortunately, he's gone. Fortunately, however, they still JaMychal Green, who is a beast on the block, and swingman Tony Mitchell, who had a very good freshman year and should only get better. They also have a hell of a freshman point guard coming in with Trevor Releford, who may be the most important cog. According to something I read, Tide coach Anthony Grant wants to run an uptempo offense, but didn't have the point guard to do it and went slow down instead (their tempo ranked #247 last year), and the hope is that Releford is the guy who can be turned loose. It might work, and there's talent here, I just don't think it's enough, even in the SEC West.
5. LSU Tigers. Every year I keep waiting for LSU to get back to relevance, but every year it seems they're still stuck down at the bottom of the division - and this year won't change that. Storm Warren is a solid guard, but the other stand-out returner, forward Bo Spencer, peaced out from the program after being declared academically ineligible (at LSU? LOL). With that they are very young and I'm not even sure they know what all they have since Warren is the only returning player who averaged more than 4.6 points per game last year. There is some talent, with SG Aaron Dotson a Rivals top 150 player last year and a good class this year with three more Rivals top 150 types, so they might be on their way back to relevance, just not yet.
6. Auburn Tigers. Things were already going to be tough with four starters graduating (including your top three scorers), but the news got worse when Frankie Sullivan, the lone returning starter, ended up needed ACL surgery that will likely keep him out all year and the Tigers' two top recruits, Luke Cothron (Rivals #45) and Shawn Kemp, Jr. (#105) were both ruled academically eligible for the year (Cothron has since fled to UMass). This leaves Auburn with Earnest Ross as their top returnee, a sophomore guard who averaged 2.8 points and 3 rebounds in 13 minutes per game last year. In other words it's going to be a long year. At least it will be warm.
SEC EAST
1. Florida Gators. I'm not a huge fan of their guards, because I think both Erving Walker and Kenny Boynton can get a little too out of control and both have a tendency to shoot shots that they shan't be shooting, but there is not denying their talent and the Gators have a stellar front court. Chandler Parsons is a Mike Miller clone sans the bad hair and with a slightly worse jump shot (and he single-handedly won me my fantasy college hoops league last year) and Alex Tyus and Vernon Macklin are very good as long as you don't count free throws. In a down year for the SEC, the Gators are clearly the class of either division.
2. Kentucky Wildcats. In what I'm going to assume is about to become a tradition until Calipari is arrested for money laundering, Kentucky lost an assload of good players to the NBA but is reloading with an assload of talent. It's almost a perfect job of recruiting, actually, because these guys are not only talented but cover all five positions: You have PG Brandon Knight (Rivals #6 overall), SG Doron Lamb (#21), SF Stacey Poole (#33), PF Terrence Jones (#13), and C Enes Kanter (#3 overall). Of course, the biggest question is if Kanter will end up eligible, because they aren't particularly strong on the interior without him, but this year will be plenty athletic and is near-perfectly built for the dribble-drive offense Calipari loves. I'd consider this #2 prediction their downside. Well, the actual downside was it turns out Cal has been cheating (NO WAY) and they kick everybody off the team or something. That would probably be worse.
3. Georgia Bulldogs. Georgia may very well be on their way back to relevance, believe it or not. Travis Leslie is an absolute stud, and what Rodney Williams should aspire to become, and they have the league's leading returning scorer and rebounder in power forward Trey Thompkins. These guys should be two of the best players in the conference, but what makes this team really interesting are a couple of newcomers: freshman forward Marcus Thornton and point guard transfer from Tennessee State Gerald Robinson. Thornton could be a great one, with both size and athleticism, and Robinson is the kind of scoring point guard (averaged 15 and 18 points per game in his two years at TSU) who can end up making or breaking a team. I consider these guys a solid sleeper this year.
4. Tennessee Volunteers. I don't exactly know how Bruce Pearl being a huge cheater is going to affect this team, but they're a bit of an enigma already so this doesn't help with the rubix cube here. I've seen them ranked anywhere from 2nd to 4th in various previews, and with three major contributors and starters gone (four if you want to count Tyler Smith) the second place predictions seems awfully optimistic to me. I guess it really depends on how good you think freshman point guard Tobias Harris can be (Rivals #7), and how much of an improvement Cameron Tatum and/or Scottie Hopson can make. I think those three will be pretty studly, but they're all perimeter guys and the Vols are going to be weak on the interior. Plus I wouldn't surprised if Pearl is dismissed/suspended/whatever and this whole thing collapses.
5. Vanderbilt Commodores. If Northwestern is the nerds of midwest, and Stanford is the nerds of the west coast, then Vanderbilt is the nerds of the southeast. And for nerds, they've had a pretty good run of success lately, making the NCAA Tournament three of the last four years with a sweet16 appearance thrown in. This looking like it's going to be a down year, however, with two double-digit scorers (center A.J. Ogilvy and point guard Jermaine Beal) lost to graduation, but they've built the kind of program at this point where they'll be back soon enough. Sophomore Jeffery Taylor is one of the most athletically gifted players in the conference and should blossom with an increased role on offense, and classmate John Jenkins is a three-point marksman who hit nearly 50% of his threes last year on his way to averaging double-digit points per game. And they're probably all really smart, too. NERDS!!!
6. South Carolina Gamecocks. Remember Devan Downey? He and his 22 points per game have graduated. Along with Dominique Archie (who only played five games last year due to injury) and his 14.4 ppg, Mike Holmes (who only played in seven before being kicked off the team) and his 9.4, and Brandin Raley-Ross and his 10.6. So yes, they're losing a lot. They still have a decent enough inside/outside combo in Ramon Galloway and Sam Muldrow, but let's just say if they were an NBA Jam combo they'd never get picked outside of South Carolina. Coach Darrin Horn loves to play an uptempo style, but with just Galloway and Lakeem Jackson back with significant back court experience, he'll be relying on newcomers and although it's a good class, that's not generally a sign of success. This isn't Kentucky.
SEC WEST
1. Mississippi State Bulldogs. It sucks that Jarvis Varnado graduated, because that guy was as fun to watch as anybody so pardon me if I'm weeping like a fat girl at a prom with no cake while I type this, but the Bulldogs have enough coming back to win their division and make the tournament, mostly because the defied the odds and went 2-0 against the NCAA fascists this offseason. Dee Bost, last year's #3 scorer at 13.2 ppg, declared for the NBA draft, then pulled his name out after the deadline, and instead of following it's own rules they are letting him back to play another year after sitting out the first handful of games. He'll be joined on the suspended bench to start the year by PF Renardo Sidney, last year's #16 ranked freshman by Rivals who sat out of all of last season during an NCAA investigation into something or other, but he'll be playing after a nine game timeout. Add these two to Ravern Johnson, their leading returning scorer, and Miss State should be dancing this year. With a big thanks to the NCAA for actually being reasonable, not exactly their strong suit. It's probably in recognition of how much it sucks to lose Varnado.
2. Mississippi Rebels. Chris Warren is back, again (he's apparently under the Jess Settles plan), but he loses his two back court buddies (Eniel Polynice and Terrico White) who combined to give the Rebels one of the best three-man back courts in the country amongst teams who didn't make the NCAA tournament last year. He won't be alone back there, however, because Ole Miss will welcome one of the best names in the country to the program in point guard Dundrecous Nelson (#89 Rivals), as well as Nick Williams, a transfer from Indiana who averaged nearly double-digit points in his year with the Hoosiers. If the Rebs can get some help in the front court they could finally bust through the bubble and make their first NCAA Tournament since 2002. Gotta be sick of being predicted to be a tournament team only to end up in the NIT, no?
3. Arkansas Razorbacks. Mike Pelphrey continues to grab good recruiting classes, but at the same time there seems to be sort of an undercurrent that things might not be all rosy, or maybe that's just the Courtney Fortson affect. And speaking of Fortson, I think I'm pretty glad he never ended up a Gopher, because it seems he may have been just as good at killing his team as he was at helping it. In any case, Pelphrey has this program humming like a good ole fashioned jug band drinkin' moonshine while prepping for a coon hunt. And if that sounded racist against southerners, it probably was. I've been to Arkansas.
4. Alabama Crimson Tide. Mikhail Torrance was an absolute stud for the Tide last year. Unfortunately, he's gone. Fortunately, however, they still JaMychal Green, who is a beast on the block, and swingman Tony Mitchell, who had a very good freshman year and should only get better. They also have a hell of a freshman point guard coming in with Trevor Releford, who may be the most important cog. According to something I read, Tide coach Anthony Grant wants to run an uptempo offense, but didn't have the point guard to do it and went slow down instead (their tempo ranked #247 last year), and the hope is that Releford is the guy who can be turned loose. It might work, and there's talent here, I just don't think it's enough, even in the SEC West.
5. LSU Tigers. Every year I keep waiting for LSU to get back to relevance, but every year it seems they're still stuck down at the bottom of the division - and this year won't change that. Storm Warren is a solid guard, but the other stand-out returner, forward Bo Spencer, peaced out from the program after being declared academically ineligible (at LSU? LOL). With that they are very young and I'm not even sure they know what all they have since Warren is the only returning player who averaged more than 4.6 points per game last year. There is some talent, with SG Aaron Dotson a Rivals top 150 player last year and a good class this year with three more Rivals top 150 types, so they might be on their way back to relevance, just not yet.
6. Auburn Tigers. Things were already going to be tough with four starters graduating (including your top three scorers), but the news got worse when Frankie Sullivan, the lone returning starter, ended up needed ACL surgery that will likely keep him out all year and the Tigers' two top recruits, Luke Cothron (Rivals #45) and Shawn Kemp, Jr. (#105) were both ruled academically eligible for the year (Cothron has since fled to UMass). This leaves Auburn with Earnest Ross as their top returnee, a sophomore guard who averaged 2.8 points and 3 rebounds in 13 minutes per game last year. In other words it's going to be a long year. At least it will be warm.
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