Canada was awesome, dude.

-  The fishing trip was a rousing success.  Tell me how this sounds to you:  Five full days of fishing in 60 degree sunny weather catching walleye after walleye with an occasional Northern Jackfish thrown in.  I ended up catching 235 Walleye and 50 Jacks, which is pretty incredible, and mostly with decent size.  I topped out with a 35 inch Pike and 25 inch Walleye, while Bear won the week with a 30 inch Walleye and a 43 inch Jack and finished at the top of the weekly Yahtzee standings as well.   I know Bogart grabbed a 26 Walleye (and won the end of the week Yahtzee tournament) and Dawger had a 37 Pike and was at the helm when I got my two biggest fish so it's not like anybody got shut out.  Many beers were drank, much vodka was consumed, many fish were caught, one night was particularly hilarious, and overall it was just an outstanding trip.  Basically the trip of a lifetime, and along with my trip to Italy with the wife and baseball trip out east with my dad and bro I've had 3 of them now.  Pretty lucky dude.

Having been out of both internet and cell service areas for over a week, I've missed a lot.  So I'll try to catch up.

- It appears the Twins have done well since I've been gone, winning six of their last seven, which is good.  Even though Seattle is shitty and Milwaukee is even shittier it still means something that they're beating these shitty teams instead of losing like they were doing for a while.  Instead of trying to go over these games, which would be impossible, I want to make two Twins' related points:

1.  Aaron Hicks has hit .286 (8/28) in these seven games, and has now raised his season average all the way up to .173 (and yes, all the way is supposed to be sarcastic).  His walks are way down compared to earlier in the season (to be fair, his strikeouts are too), but I would guess that's a result of pitchers forcing him to hit and refusing to walk him until he proves he can punish them if they groove it.  His 3-4 day with 2 XBH today will certainly help.  His season line now stands at .173/.246/.335, which is really pretty awful, but there are plenty of other underachievers, and veterans at that, who are putting up similar numbers at this early stage.  B.J. Upton (.153/.236/.252), Jason Heyward (.142/.283/.236), Dustin Ackley (.205/.266/.250), Josh Reddick (.170/.280/.270), and Ben Revere (.251/.293/.287) are all notable names, for one reason or another, who are performing on a similar level.  So what I'm saying is, if you've given up on Hicks already you're an idiot.  And you probably are anyway and you probably like Big Bang Theory, Olive Garden, and Nickelback.

2.  Glen Perkins is having a really good year out of the pen.  His two blown saves were gross and he's had a couple poor outings in non-save situations, but overall an ERA of 3.05 (with a FIP of 2.31 which is really, really good) with 14+ Ks per nine and 5 Ks per walk is really, really effing good.  I'm hopeful the Twins end up trading him for something good at the deadline because saves are overvalued like a mofo, but that's not what I found fascinating looking at stuff today.  What's fascinating is the Perkins, in his 20 innings this year he has more Ks than Kevin Correia in his 70, Mike Pelfrey in 50, or Vance Worley in 48.  Also Scott Diamond in his 50, and any other pitcher on the team.  Yes, Glen Perkins leads the Twins in strikeouts.  And you want to know who is third?  Jared Burton.  If it weren't so sad it would be hilarious.  And sad.

-  Man oh man I think the Royals might be cursed or haunted or something.  Mike Moustakas was a top 10 prospect in all of baseball a couple of years ago, and this year his stats resemble Aaron Hicks but with no speed and less power coming from a more premium offensive position.  Eric Hosmer was the #5 prospect at one point and he's hitting on a level equal to Eduardo Escobar, but with slightly less power which is awful enough but as a 1B it's just horrendous.  And that's hardly the only issues they've had.  Most of their top pitching prospects have either gotten hurt or flamed out, and the ones who have looked ok are either stuck in the bullpen or got traded (and don't forget, Luke Hochevar was the #1 overall pick in 2006 and after seven years is finally having his first decent year - but as a middle reliever).  It's yet another example of "potential" not translating to actual performance, and maybe the most dramatic one outside of this year's Lakers.

-  Last year I said that shutting down Stephen Strasburg after 159 innings in a season when you have legitimate World Series hopes was a stupid, stupid move.   Throwing away a tangible benefit (having one of the best pitchers in baseball on your side in the playoffs) for some unprovable, perhaps even hypothetical future benefit (Strasburg's future health) rarely works out, and now he ended up leaving his start last Friday after just two innings with an oblique strain.  I'm not sure how bad that actually is or if he'll miss any games, but it should help serve as a warning to other teams in similar situations in the future.  Play your best when that window is open, because nobody knows how quickly it could shut - just ask the OKC Thunder.

-  This was pretty neat:


-  After being a pretty big backer of the Pitino hire and the system he's going to be bringing to the Gophers, as time has passed and I've been looking at things more rationally I'm getting more nervous that next year may be a disaster.  Let's assume for a minute that Pitino is able to force other teams into a more up-and-down type game than is generally played in the Big 10 (a pretty big assumption, granted, that may actually be the key next year anyway).  A more uptempo game results in more possessions, and traditionally the more possessions in a game the more likely the more talented team will in - is that really the position the Gophers want to put themselves in next year?  With that mish-mash of a front court?  Pitino's goal is something that has rarely been done successfully in the Big 10 with only Ohio State in 2011 finishing above .500 in conference with one of the fastest paced teams (top 100) in the country going back to 2005.  That team had elite talent, this Minnesota team doesn't and really has only two players you could call above average.  My confidence is wavering, and wavering significantly.  I'm now terrified for next year.

And speaking of that mish mash of a front court, the Gophers signed on Drake transfer Joey King, formerly of East View, giving them a Minnesota presence and another bigger body if he gets the waiver he's looking for to make him eligible next year (the ole "move home because of a family situation" waiver).  There are a lot of conflicting opinions on King.  On the one hand, he was on the MVC All-Freshman team last year after averaging 7 pts and 3 rebs per game, which is decent for freshman and the MVC was a quality league last year (and he played some of his best ball against the best - 17 vs. Creighton, 15 vs. Wichita, and 21 vs. Xavier).  The bad news is despite being 6-9 he was just a slightly better rebounder than Joe Coleman (RIP) last season, shot more twos than threes, and only took 20% of his shots at the rim last year which was less than Julian Welch last year.

Basically King is, potentially, a good stretch 4 which is what Pitino is looking for.  However, along with Osenieks and Buggs that gives them three of those with only one true post player, meaning that Mo Walker may very well end up being the key to the season.  Read that again.  Think about it.  Digest it for a minute.  How does that feel?  I feel yucky.

-  Oh yeah, Epic was a pretty sweet kids movie.  You should go see it and stuff.

Five Best Trade Deadline Trades

1.  Pirates acquire Travis Snider from Toronto for Brad Lincoln.  This one doesn't get a whole ton of play in the media because it's not as sexy as a lot of the other trades that went down and if it does it's always mentioned as a "trade of two failed prospects, both of whom were drafted in the first round of the 2006 draft.  That may be true, but that doesn't mean Pittsburgh didn't get a steal here.  The Pirates have gotten nothing out of their left-fielders this year (mainly Alex Presley), with a combined .198 average, and Snider just so happens to play left field.  The Pirates also have an excellent bullpen with a combined 2.81 ERA out of the pen this year, so although Lincoln has pitched well this year they aren't exactly going to notice his loss.  Then there's their performance.  Before settling in the pen this year Lincoln was tried as a starter twice, finishing 2010 with a 6.66 ERA (9 starts) and 2011 with a 4.72 (8 starts).  He was always a starter in the minors, and outside of 13 double-A starts in 2009 (when he was already 24) and two AAA starts this year he's never posted an ERA below 4.00 at any level.  Safe to say he's a middle reliever, and as I've discussed here a lot middle relievers pretty much grow on trees.  Lincoln was worth little.  Snider, on the other hand, with five plus .300 average seasons in seven in the minors with good plate discipline and good power.  He also hit .300 his first year in the majors (.301 in 80 PAs) and hit 14 homers in 319 PAs in 2010, but he's battled a lot of injuries and been on the DL quite a bit.  He's also 3 years younger than Lincoln.  Basically the Pirates traded a player that plays a position they don't need who you pretty much already know his ceiling for a player at a position they need who has shown promise and if could stay healthy still has the potential to be an impact player.  Great trade. 

2.  Cubs acquire Arodys Vizcaino (and Jaye Chapman) from Atlanta for Paul Maholm and Reed Johnson.  The Braves acquired Vizcaino in the trade where they shipped Javier Vazquez to the Yankees in 2009 when he was the #16 prospect in New York's system.  Since then he's ranked #5, #5, and #2 while in the Braves' system, and is now headed to the Cubs (along with a top-25ish reliever guy).  All they had to give up was a journeyman outfielder in Johnson and a back-of-the-rotation starter who, literally, anybody could have had for about $5 million this offseason in Maholm.  The downside of this trade for Chicago is nobody gives a shit.  Maholm is not going to develop into a Cy Young candidate, so no matter what happens the Cubs aren't hurt.  The upside is Vizcaino, who has #2 type stuff.  For a team that's been pretty smart about moves the Braves were awfully antsy this year, trying to give Randall Delgado (#3 prospect) to the Cubs first for Ryan Dempster before he blocked it and then following it up by trading prospect #2.  Epstein has actually done a nice job dealing with the hellhole that is Chicago's roster, and at some point he's going to find a taker for Soriano.  I have to admit, I have a feeling that nerd will get the best of that one as well.

3.  Angels acquire Zack Greinke from Milwaukee for Jean Segura, Ariel Pena, and John Hellweg.  The Angels certainly didn't underpay, giving up three prospects ranked in their top 15 but getting Greinke, and maybe more importantly not letting the Rangers or Yankees get him, will be a key to the Angels postseason success this year.  This move sets up their rotation as Jered Weaver, Greinke, C.J. Wilson, and Dan Haren, and if Haren wasn't having a pretty tough year I'd say that's one of the best rotation I'd seen in a while.  Certainly they have an edge when compared to the other contenders, with Haren their fourth starter compared to guys like Phil Hughes, Zach Britton, Clay Buchholz, Phil Humber, Doug Fister, Travis Blackley, Derek Holland, Jeremy Hellickson, and Brett Cecil - and they're better than almost every other team at the #2 and #3 spots, too.  The Giants showed in 2010 that pitching can win championships, and their rotation of Lincecum, Cain, Bumgarner, and Jonathan Sanchez wasn't as good as what the Angels have now put together.  In fact, I just talked myself into a small bet on them to win the world series at 6-1.  Take advantage man, take advantage.

4.  Yankees acquire Ichiro Suzuki from Seattle for D.J. Mitchell and Danny Farquhar.  Mostly I like this one because the Yankees' risk is basically nil.  Farquhar is nowhere near a top prospect list and has already been traded 3 times and waived twice in his four year career and has an upside of a 7th inning reliever, while Mitchell is a meh starter who is in his third year at AAA at age 25.  For that low price they get a guy who, although he's been on the decline the last two years, did hit over .300 for 10 straight years, and a guy who agreed to hit low in the lineup, move positions, and sit against at least some lefties.  Ichiro wanted out (there is a theory he's just been bored the last two years playing for such a shitty team), Seattle wanted him out so they wouldn't have to deal with the headache of resigning/not resigning him, and so the Yankees swoop in with almost no risk.  Their production out of their left-fielders (Raul Ibanez/Andruw Jones) has been brutal, so if Ichiro plays as he has all year it's a small upgrade.  But if the move to New York and a contender lights a fire under his ass and he plays like pre-2011 Ichiro?  Look out.  And all for the cost of two non-prospects. 

5.  Royals acquire J.C. Sulbaran and Donnie Joseph from Cincinnati for Jonathan Broxton.  This is the exact kind of trade the Twins should have been making.  Broxton was only signed to a one-year deal, the Royals clearly weren't going anywhere this year, and several teams had interest so the Royals leveraged that and got the most they could.  They picked up Joseph, a top-25ish type prospect in the Reds system who has been a nearly unhittable closer in both AA and AAA this year, and Sulbaran, ranked 12th among Reds' prospects and a starter whose numbers are pedestrian but Baseball America said he had the best curveball in the entire Reds' system.  Sulbaran gives them another young arm as they try to figure out the whole pitching situation as they make the alleged run towards a division title everyone is telling us to expect, and Joseph can probably start in the big leagues next season so they have some flexibility with Soria coming off injury and owed $8 million (team option).  Good trade, and exactly the kind of thing the Twins could have/should have done.

I also think Jeremy Guthrie is a good pick-up for them.  I mean he sucks, but you know he's going to give you 200 semi-ok innings and you need at least one guy like that if you're going to be a contender.  Of course they have to resign him, find more talented pitchers to put around him, and then dudes have to hit to turn them into a contender, but like Leo Marvin said, "Babysteps."

Baseball 1st Half in Review

In lieu of a week in review post, since baseball's first half officially has come to a close I figured I'd do a Baseball's First Half in Review sort of thing.  I'm going to avoid talking about some of the more obvious things like the breakout first halves of Mike Trout and Bryce Harper, the success of the Nationals in general, R.A. Dickey's sudden change to one of the best pitchers in baseball, or Tim Lincecum's fall of a cliff.  I'm also going to avoid spotlighting obvious things anyone could have predicted coming into the season like Stephen Strasburg being unhittable, Joey Votto being a pimp daddy, or Nick Blackburn regularly getting lit up like a Christmas tree or a Portland hippie.  I'm also not writing any Twins stuff in this because I've covered them plenty, especially the Twins' two biggest success stories this year in Ben Revere and Trevor Plouffe, so if you don't care about the rest of the majors I feel your time would probably best be used doing something else.  Also Chris Sale is pretty awesome but I just wrote about him too so I'm not going to do it again.

So what did I find?  Stuff.  Will it be interesting?  READ ON.

WHO WAS AWESOME

1.  Gio Gonzalez.  Generally moving from the AL to the NL benefits pitchers quite a bit, and Gonzalez is the latest and perhaps greatest example of that after the A's traded him to Washington prior to this season.  He had always flashed significant potential, finishing in the top 10 in AL ERA twice, strikeouts twice, and HR/9 twice, but he also struggled with control, leading the league in walks in 2011 and finishing second in 2010.  He hasn't exactly stopped walking people, and still ranks 7th in the league, but he's cut down a bit and compliments that by striking out more people than ever (10.5 per nine ips).  He's giving up fewer homers and fewer hits, and has basically become an absolute monster and would be the ace of pretty much any staff that didn't also already have Stephen Strasburg on it.  So, nice trade Beane. 

HONORABLE MENTION (in this same type of category):  Brandon Morrow.

2.  Austin Jackson.  Jackson, who if you remember was the key component in the Curtis Granderson trade, had been heading towards a solid career as a less speedy Gary Pettis - decent defense, poor average, big strikeout totals, and very little power.  In fact, two years ago Jackson became the first player in MLB history to whiff 170+ times and hit less than 5 home runs, and the following season he because the first player with 180+ strikeouts and 10 or fewer home runs - not exactly a good trend.  Then there were reports over the offseason that Jackson was revamping his swing and unlike most of those kind of adjustments boy has this paid off with Jackson basically becoming a completely different player.   His K rate is down to a more manageable level (still high, but more like Josh Willingham than Adam Dunn), his walks are up to where he's actually a respectable leadoff hitter, and he's second in the AL in batting average at .332.  That's guaranteed to drop in the second half because his BABIP is a ridiculous .420, but his line drive rate is up and, after popping up 5% of the time last season he has yet to hit a single infield pop-up this year, one of just four players who hasn't this season - a key thing for a speedy player.  Simply put, he identified his weaknesses, worked to fix them, and it's worked.  It's actually really cool, and although it's not at the Jose Bautista revamped his swing and reinvented himself level, I still think he deserves a ton of credit.

HONORABLE MENTION:  Andrew McCutchen.

3.  James McDonald.  McDonald has always been a nondescript pitcher.  He was drafted in the 11th round by the Dodgers in 2002 and then traded to Pittsburgh in 2010 in the Octavio Dotel deal.  Whether with LA or the Pirates he's basically been the definition of league average.  Now, suddenly, he like, gets it.  His strikeouts are up, homers and walks are down, and he's holding opponents to a batting average under .200.  Sure he's getting a bit lucky, but he's also got a wicked curveball that, according to fangraphs pitch values metrics, ranks alongside such noted curvesmiths as Justin Verlander, A.J. Burnett, and Stephen Strasburg . Not too shabby.  He probably can't keep up at quite this pace, but for now he's first in the league in fewest hits allowed per nine and 3rd in ERA, and a big reason why the Pirates are actually in first place.  Well I suppose Andrew McCutchen is really the biggest reason, but McDonald is on that list there somewhere.  Near the top, too.  Like, way ahead of that Garrett Jones.

HONORABLE MENTION:  Jason Hammel.

4.  Carlos Ruiz.  If you're like me, you just assumed Carlos Ruiz was just some big dumb fat catcher who couldn't hit, and before this year you'd have been correct.  He always had a good batting eye, with more walks than strikeouts in his career and a career OBP nearly 100 points higher than his career batting average, but that batting average was just .265 coming into this season.  This year, however, he's been more aggressive at the plate and has stopped hitting so many flyballs and pop-ups, and it's resulted in a huge increase in average (hitting .350) and a monster increase in power (ISO of .237 over double last season's number),  and he's already surpassed last year's totals in HRs and RBI.  Like most jump-ups like this he's had quite a bit of luck on his side this year, but it doesn't look completely fluky, and Ruiz has taken himself from journeymen to all-star by being more aggressive.  Just think what that could do for Joe Mauer.  Just kidding, I think the real problem is the chicken arms.

HONORABLE MENTION:  Yadier Molina.

5.  Josh Reddick.  No matter what you think of Billy Beane, and there's no doubt he's a pretty divisive figure, one thing you have to give him credit for is realizing that saves are more a product of opportunity and environment than skill and constantly shipping out his closers for prospects.  He's traded Billy Koch, Billy Taylor, and Huston Street, and this offseason he traded Andrew Bailey to the Red Sox for a couple of minor league dorks and Reddick, who I'm guessing the Sox figured they didn't need with studs who never get hurt like Carl Crawford and Jacoby Welker running around in the outfield.  Well, Reddick has been absolutely mashing this year, to the tune of 20 homers (8th in the AL), 37 extra-base hits (10th), and an ISO that ranks 12th.  He'll never hit for a super high average, but he can probably be a Josh Willingham type for them, except he leads the team in average, homers, rbi, hits, OBP, doubles, runs, walks, slugging, and OPS and would lead most teams in triples with four but Jemile Weeks has five, and he's under team control until 2017.  So again, no matter what you think about Beane, this was a fucking slam dunk of a win on this trade, especially since Bailey hasn't pitched this year.  And if you're wondering how the A's can manage after shipping off their closer the guy currently manning the role, Ryan Cook, has a WHIP of 0.91, ERA of 1.46, and just made the all-star team.  In other words, PLEASE FOR THE LOVE OF GOD TRADE MATT ASSHOLE CAPPS.

HONORABLE MENTION:  Edwin Encarnacion.


WHO SUCKED

1.  Ricky Romero.  Through the first 3 years of his career Romero looked like a future star for the Blue Jays.  His ERA got beater in each of his three seasons, with his strikeouts rising and WHIP falling, culminating in a 10th place finish in Cy Young voting last season after going 15-11 with a 2.92 ERA.  Everything looked like he was ready to become a true ace this year.  But yeah, that didn't even come close to happening.  Rather than taking the next step forward he's taken two giant leaps back, and goes into the break with an ERA of 5.22, which is nearly double his ERA from last season, and for those who are true nerds his FIP and xFIP are significantly higher than last year as well.  And this isn't someone who started poorly and is trying to claw his way back, he's been bad throughout the year.  His first start of the season ended with his ERA at 7.20 and in his last six starts his ERA is over 8.00.  His Ks are down, his walks are way up, and he's getting laced around the park with a Line Drive rate far higher than either last year or his career number.  The Blue Jays needed dudes to really step up if they were going to legitimately compete in the AL East - Brandon Morrow and Edwin Encarnacion did, but Ricky Romero and his family is a dick.

DISHONORABLE MENTION:  Justin Masterson.

2.  Detroit Tigers.  I can't remember a team being so anointed as easy division champ getting off to such a horrible start, and seeing as we're halfway through the season this may be approaching trend rather than mirage territory.  And their studs are doing what they're supposed to; Cabrera and Fielder and hitting well, Austin Jackson (see above) is having a great season, and Justin Verlander has been just as good this year as last year when he won both the Cy Young and MVP awards.  It's just everyone else who has been horrible.  They actually rank middle of the pack in both Runs Scored and Runs Allowed in the AL, but mainly that's because of those good players doing good stuff.  The rest of the rotation has been terrible (although they'd all be aces on the Twins, fyi) with Scherzer unable to take the next step in his development and Fister unable to replicate his success at the end of last season, and they have the worst hitting 2b and RF stats in the league and are in the bottom five in LF and SS as well.  Plus, what everyone said would be their biggest issue - defense - has been.  They rank dead last in Ultimate Zone Rating in the majors.  All it really means is they're going to throw money and prospects around and pick up guys like Marco Scutaro and Shane Victorino and suddenly end up in great shape.  God I hate these guys.  But I'd still much rather see them win than the god damn White Sox.

DISHONORABLE MENTION:  Philadelphia Phillies.

3.  Justin Upton.  Upton is another guy who looked like he was about to become a super star after a monster 2011 for the D-Backs that landed him in 4th place in the MVP voting.  His average was up, his strikeouts were down, he was walking more, and his power had jumped through the roof.  After a 30/20 season, and based on his physical tools, it looked like Upton was going to fulfill the potential that his brother B.J. still hadn't.  Not so fast, because instead he completely lost all power and is once again striking out a ton.  He has just 7 home runs this year after 31 last season, and isn't hitting any doubles either.  His power numbers (specifically ISO), which was in Miguel Cabrera/Albert Pujols tier last season has dropped to where he's more in the Denard Span/Marco Scutaro grouping - gross.  He's gone from top 4 in the NL MVP to where he'd probably finish seventh or eighth on his own team.  Also I drafted him in the first round of our fantasy draft, and he's OPSing just slightly better than Drew Butera.  My bad, $nake.

DISHONORABLE MENTION:  Albert Pujols.

4.  Dan Haren.  It always boggles my mind when an established "star" pitcher suddenly runs of the rails and just gets lit up night after night.  Obviously Lincecum is the biggest example of this, but Haren is right there and right now both his WHIP and ERA would be career worsts.  He has had a little bit of bad luck but mostly he's just getting raked, particularly in the home run category where his 16 allowed are the 8th worst in the AL and almost match his total from last season of 20.  The slightly high BABIP and giant jump in HR/FB rate say this is a fluke, but he's also lost more than a mile per hour off his fastball from last season and at the same time is relying on it more often, and batters are chasing less often as well.  All this tells me I'd be very, very nervous right now if I was hooked into him long-term, but luckily for the Angels they can buy him out next year for 3.5 million if he continues to suck.  At which point somebody is going to end up giving him something like 5 years & $50 million and then we'll all be like hey look it's Barry Zito.

DISHONORABLE MENTION:  Jon Lester.

5.  Kansas City Royals.  I'm going to shoot myself in the face for buying into this crap and betting Snacks $50 they'd win a division title by 2014, because once again, shocker, the Royals suck ass and literally the only positive thing you can say about their season is at least they aren't the Twins (or Mariners, Cubs, Phillies, Astros, Padres, or Rockies).  When does all this talent come together?  Eric Hosmer is hitting .231, somehow Eric Gordon and Jeff Francoeur are still prominently involved, and supposed future building blocks like Lorenzo Cain and Johnny Giavotella are struggling to hit around the mendoza line when they aren't down in AAA.  And Humberto Quintero has 144 plate appearances for them for christ's sake, so they might want to get that position figured out as well.  And don't even get me started on the pitching, because good god.  The two guys with the most innings pitched this year, Luke Hochevar and Bruce Chen, are two of the most hittable pitchers in the history of baseball, and clown shoes like Luis Mendoza, Vin Mazzaro, and Everett Teaford have been fixtures in the rotation this year.  I almost feel stupid for buying that KC hat, because I hate feeling like I've been duped.  Prove me wrong, kids, prove me wrong.

DISHONORABLE MENTION:  Miami Marlins.


I'm sure I missed a billion things.  Sue me.

American League Central Preview

Another NCAA Tournament is almost over with my bracket in shreds, so just as naturally as girls starting to wear tank tops and short shorts my thoughts turn to baseball and those beloved sucks the Twins.  After last year's nightmare, can they compete this year in the Central?  The best way to know is to know your opponents, so here's what each of the AL Central squads did this offseason to change things up.


CHICAGO WHITE SOX
Adds:  OF Kosuke Fukudome, 1b Dan Johnson, RP Eric Stults
Deletes:  SP Mark Buehrle, RP Jason Frasor, OF Juan Pierre, OF Carlos Quentin, IF Omar Vizquel, RP Sergio Santos

The most confusing team in the division and, barring significant injuries to the others, probably the worst, the White Sox are pretty clearly in rebuilding mode this year.  Except when they aren't, like when they traded Santos, a young (28), near dominant closer (1.11 WHIP, 13 K/9ip, 30 saves), coming off a career year who is signed to a reasonable contract with club options through 2017.  They did get a decent prospect in return but there's no guarantee he ends up even close to what Santos already gives you.  A puzzling move, but a clear sign that the Sox are full on rebuilding.  At some point this season the fire sale will likely begin with Paul Konerko, Gavin Floyd, and Jesse Crain all likely to go.  They'd love to jettison Adam Dunn, Alex Rios, and Jake Peavy as well, but it's going to be a bitch trying to find somebody to take any of those contracts.

There are some good pieces to build upon here with 3b Brett Morel poised for a possible breakout season along with converted reliever Chris Sale who has absolutely filthy stuff and will try his hand in the rotation this year.  There are also a couple youngsters who will get first crack at starting in the outfield in Dayan Viciedo and Alejandro de Aza, but they better hope they're able to get a nice haul when they start trading players off because their farm system is in a complete shambles and they've got way too much money committed to way too many shitty players.  This could be the first in a long losing streak for the Sox, and I hope so because these assholes deserve it.

CLEVELAND INDIANSAdds:  RP Jeremy Accardo, 1b Casey Kotchman, 3b Andy LaRoche, OF Fred Lewis, SP Derek Lowe, RP Chris Ray, OF Felix Pie, OF Ryan Spillborghs, RP Dan Wheeler, RP Robinson Tejeda, SP Kevin Slowey
Deletes:  OF Travis Buck, OF Kosuke Fukudome, RP Chad Durbin, IF Adam Everett, RP Justin Germano, OF Austin Kearns, DH Jim Thome

I'm a big fan of what the Indians have done this year - of course I'd be an even bigger fan if Fausto Carmona wasn't in legal trouble and Grady Sizemore wasn't hurt for the 19th year in a row - but they've done some really nice things.  You'll notice they lost a lot of players from last year's roster, but you'll also notice they all suck outside of Thome, and if you take a look at what they're bringing in that's a really interesting group with a lot of upside.  Accardo, Ray, and Wheeler were all elite relievers at one point, and Spillborghs and Pie can help fill in for Sizemore, but the biggest prizes were Kotchman (who will start immediately) and Lowe (who becomes their #3 starter).

The most exciting part about the Indians is they have a chance to have the best young infield in all of baseball.  SS Asdrubel Cabrera is already elite and 2b Jason Kipnis and 3b Lonnie Chisenhall both sound like wieners but both have a chance to reach that tier as well, and C Carlos Santana is already one of the best baseball hitters in the game.  The guy really mucking things up is Matt LaPorta, who was the centerpiece of the package the Indians got from Milwaukee when they traded C.C. Sabathia, but instead of being a stud he's been a big time dud, failing to hit over .255 in any season with very little power.  Basically he's Joe Mauer without the batting average.  Or Nick Punto without the speed or fielding.  Real valuable player, is what I'm trying to say.

DETROIT TIGERS
Adds:  1b Prince Fielder, RP Octavio Dotel, C Gerald Laird
Deletes:  3b Wilson Betemit, 2b Carlos Guillen, OF Magglio Ordonez, SP Brad Penny, RP Ryan Perry, 2b Will Rhymes, RP Joel Zumaya

They didn't add much, but they added a ton at the same time.  You know about Fielder, and say what you want about the defense taking a hit with Miguel Cabrera back at the hot corner, but that is one hell of a 1-2 punch in the lineup.  That signing will get most of the press, but don't forget about Dotel.  He's been an elite level set-up guy for nearly a decade now and last season might have been his career best.  He's going to be the 7th inning guy next year, which means at the end of games (at least ones Verlander doesn't pitch) you'll be looking at Dotel (0.98 WHIP), Joaquin Benoit (1.05), and Jose Valverde (49-49 saves last year).  Shortened game indeed.

If you're looking for negatives, go ahead and latch on to the fact that one popular theory is that pitching and defense win championships, and that's where the Tigers have big questions.  Behind Verlander the rotation is a bunch of question marks (and there's no way Fister is that good again) and as long as Jacob Turner doesn't become a stud (and he might) there will be questions all season.  Plus of the 9 projected starters (assuming Fielder, Cabrera, and Delmoney all share time at DH) only Austin Jackson would be considered anything other than a terrible fielder (although Ryan Raburn is a good outfielder, he's slated to play 2b this year lololol).  So go ahead and latch on to that hope.  Although you're only kidding yourself because the Tigers will probably have this wrapped up by September 1.

KANSAS CITY ROYALS
Adds:  SS Yuniesky Betancourt, RP Jonathan Broxton, 3b Kevin Kouzmanoff, RP Jose Mijares, SP Jonathan Sanchez
Deletes:  OF Melky Cabrera, SP Jeff Francis, C Jason Kendall, RP Robinson Tejada

Well here we go.  This is where the Royals start to make their move.  All of the talk about their incredible minor league system and all the young talent they have starts to prove itself this year.  They've transferred most of it to the majors, and Billy Butler, Alex Gordon (finally), Alcides Escobar, and Eric Hosmer have proven themselves ready to go, while Mike Moustakas, Lorenzo Cain, Johnny Giavotella, and Salvador Perez are now in the majors and will get their shot to stick.  To compliment them KC is making the right moves, trading expendable parts (Melky Cabrera) to upgrade the starting pitching (Sanchez) and signing smart veterans to back-up the youngsters and add depth (Betancourt, Kouzmanoff) and upgrade an already promising bullpen (Mijares, Broxton).

That being said, they still aren't there yet but that's ok.  The starting pitching is still pretty poor at this point but help is still on the way (two top 5 prospects in the system could hit the bigs this year), and there are still a few more position players who aren't there yet but should be soon.  So although the Royals won't contend for the AL Central crown this year, they should take a nice step forward and be right around .500 if everything is going according to plan.  If not, all the idiots like Snacks can go ahead and put a notch in their belt, because the whole "it's still the Royals" and "potential doesn't win games" and "we've been hearing about the Royals' talent for years" arguments are actually valid.  And I'd really hate for this to be true because I loathe stupidity.

 MINNESOTA TWINS
Adds:  RP Jason Bulger, 3b Sean Burroughs, RP Jared Burton, IF Jayme Carroll, C Ryan Doumit, SP Jason Marquis, C J.R. Towles, OF Josh Willingham
Deletes:  OF Michael Cuddyer, OF Jason Kubel, RP Jose Mijares, RP Joe Nathan, OF Jason Repko, IF Matt Tolbert

The Twins lose more than anybody else in the division off last year's team with several main contributors from the good teams of the last few years taking off (including my favorite player ever Jason Kubel and my fake favorite player ever in Jason Repko) and that clearly shows they've recognized a need to rebuild and start over after last year's 99 loss debacle.  Problem.  You can't rebuild when you owe eleventy billion dollars to two guys who hardly ever play.

Really, we can analyze the signings to death, but everything is dependent on the health of Mauer and Morneau.  I mean, I like the Willingham signing, love the Doumit signing, and hate both the Capps and Marquis deals, but even if those all end up being home runs the team's going nowhere without Morneau and Mauer.  Say what you want about Parmelee (and I liked what I saw) in order to contend for the division they need Morneau.  Although even that might not even matter when you can't upgrade a pretty horrendous group of starting pitchers.  Marquis and Blackburn are going to get whacked around all year, Baker can't stay healthy, and I'm starting to think it's a bit of a fool's errand waiting for Liriano to put it all together - again.  Pavano is the only worthwhile one.  What the Twins need more than anything is to blow it up and start over, but they've hamstrung themselves and are now stuck in limbo.  Hurry, Miguel Sano.  Hurry.

Monday Musings (Trade deadline talk, Royals, Seahawks, AL ROY, Sharks)

I guess the good news is the Twins didn't do anything stupid at the trade deadline.  Then again, their inability to realize they should have been sellers, not buyers and not do-nothingers, probably cost them a little bit in the prospect department as there were reports that teams were sniffing around Kubel, Cuddyer, Thome, and Slowey, all of whom could fetch value and should have been traded along with Pavano, Capps, and Nathan if possible.  Of course, the two moves the Twins came closest to making were Span to the Nationals for a couple relievers and Slowey to the Rockies for either a  mediocre and old reliever or a mediocre and old infielder, both of which would have been disasters, so maybe not doing anything is like winning due to apathy.  Or something.  Anyway, here are your trades that mattered in the AL Central, for your reference:

• WHITE SOX:  Acquired RP Jason Frasor and SP Zach Stewart from the Jays for SP Edwin Jackson and IF Mark Teahen.  Do you find it a bit curious the Sox would trade Edwin Jackson, especially since he's having a pretty good year this year and gives them five capable starting pitchers, when they are 3 games out of first in a crappy division?  Well it wasn't to get Frasor, who is a top notch reliever but they already have a good bullpen.  The real center piece for them is Stewart, who was one of the top 5 prospects in the Jays system.  He didn't fare too well in his three big league starts this year, but he was making the jump from double-A.  He's a flamethrower who has struck out more than a batter an inning in the minors, and if he can cut down on the hits allowed he could be a potential top of the rotation starter.  Even if he can't hack that with his stuff he could be a very good bullpen arm.  As a fan of an AL Central team I dislike this trade immensely.

• INDIANS:  Acquired OF Kosuke Fukudome from the Cubs for P Carlton Smith and OF Abner Abreu; Acquired P Ubaldo Jimenez for P Drew Pomeranz, C/OF/1b Matt McBride, P Alex White, P Joseph Gardner; traded IF Orlando Cabrera to the Giants for OF Thomas Neal.  The Cabrera trade was a no-brainer since they've basically committed to Jason Kipnis at second these days and they got a pretty good prospect back in Neal, but that's about the only good move they made.  The Fukudome trade makes no sense because he's not really any better than what they already have in the outfield and is a mediocre hitter with no power and a subpar outfielder, and Abner has a shot to be as starting outfielder someday (although Smith is probably a straight bust.)

          The Jimenez trade, however, reeks of going with your heart and not your head.  Think about it:  both the Red Sox and the Yankees back off and neither team is exactly known for NOT getting what they want.  Jimenez has been awful this year (4.46 ERA, 1.37 WHIP) but I'm guessing the Indians somehow just fixated on him as exactly what they needed to push them into the playoffs and were unable to pull out of a trade, effectively giving the Rockies the leverage they needed to ask for whatever they wanted - and they did.

           Pomeranz is probably the best arm in their system with a decent shot at becoming a legitimate ace, and if he's not the best arm in the system that honor probably goes to White, who profiles as a #4 type inning eater starter at worst.  The other pitcher they gave up, Joe Gardner, ranks as a top 10 prospect in their system on basically every list, and McBride has a pretty solid bat.  Basically the Rockies got an absolute haul for a pitcher who has been every bit as uneven this year as he was dominant last year.  In order to make this trade not a complete disaster for the Indians he'll need to regain his ace form and push them into the playoffs, but based on his subpar second half last year and this year, it's unlikely.  Great job, dummies. 

• TIGERS:  Acquired SP Doug Fister and RP David Pauley from the Mariners for 3b Francisco Martinez, P Charlie Furbush, OF Casper Wells, and a player to be named; acquired IF Wilson Betemit from the Royals for P Antonio Cruz and C Julio Rodriguez.  Detroit gave up a huge haul to acquire Fister (Fister?  I hardly know 'er!) who is a decent middle of the rotation pitcher but is certainly nothing special and not a difference maker.  Wells has already proven himself to be an adequate 3rd/4th outfielder type, Furbush will be a back of the rotation starter or decent middle reliever, and Martinez is a very toolsy type.  Basically they gave up three top-20 prospects for Fister and a non-descript middle reliver.  If that wasn't enough, however, it's believed that the player to be named is either 3b Nick Castellanos (#2 prospect in the system), SP Chance Ruffin (#7), or SP Drew Smyly (#9).  At least Cleveland gave up way too much to get a guy who has difference making potential.  Detroit gave up way too much to get Nick Blackburn with better stats due to playing in a pitcher's park.  And the Betemit trade is so meaningless I'm not even going to bother.

• ROYALS:  Acquired the two dudes above for Betemit; traded IF Mike Aviles to the Red Sox for IF/OF Yamaico Navarro and RP Kendall Volz.  I'm a little surprised they traded Aviles because I always figured he was in their future plans, but I suppose he's a decent middle infielder with a decent bat so he's pretty expendable, especially since they have Escobar basically entrenched at SS for the next a whole lot of years.  Giving him up to grab some upside in Navarro (#15 prospect in Boston's system) and an A-ball arm who strikes out more than a batter per inning is probably worth it.  The two guys the Tigers gave up to get Betemit are system filler, which is probably still too much to trade for Betemit. 

• TWINS:  Not a goddamn thing

So, whatever.  The Tigers and Indians went for it in a big way that could totally backfire, the White Sox stood mostly pat but built for the future, the Royals build a little more organizational depth but didn't make any big moves (like trading Soria, Cabrera, or Francoeur), and the Twins stuck their collective thumb up their collective ass and were too confused to do anything at all.


Other things going down:

-  Since we're talking about the Royals and I love them more than life itself have you guys noticed Billy Butler lately?  He's gotten hits in 13 of his last 14 games, which includes five home runs in the last week, bringing him up to 12 on the year.  Guy is just nails.  He's going to give you a .300/.360/.450 line every year with 15 homers and 40 doubles.  And in case you missed it (I did) the Royals signed him to an extension through 2014 (team option 2015) so it looks like he's the DH of the future, which also means that Kila Ka'aihue is pretty much shit out of luck since Hosmer has turned out to be the next George Brett is Brett played first or Hosmer played third.  If I'm the Twins, or several other teams, I'm looking to figure out a way to get Kila on my team.  Guy's basically an Adam Dunn clone but with a fancier name and the Royals don't seem to realize it.

-  If you will allow me one more indulgence of writing about someone I like who you probably don't care about, have you noticed what Desmond Jennings' of the Rays is doing since he was called up?  Before an 0-11 skid in his last three games he had multiple hits in 6 of 7 games and overall has put up a line of .333/.463/.576 with five steals, almost half of his hits for extra-bases, and nearly as many walks as strikeouts.  And that OPS of 1.039 would be behind only Jose Bautista in all the majors.  Why do I point all this out?  Mainly because I picked him as AL Rookie-of-the-Year.  His call up may have happened to late, but it kind of looks like I'm a genius.  Again.

-  NARD-DAWG!!

-  Looking at the NFL, can anybody inform to me what the hell the Seahwaks are doing?  I suppose this is one way to build your team, but to me it seems more in the David Kahn team building mode rather than the build a championship mode.  First you address your quarterback need by signing both Tavaris Jackson and Matt Leinart, which says "hey we don't really have a lot of money or a real plan, so we're going to grab a couple of bargain basement QBs with some upside and hope one of them works out."  Then they throw waaaay too much money at Sidney Rice in a move that says "we have way too much money so let's give it to an overrated receiver who had one good year because he had the perfect QB for his talents and was terrible with every other QB including the guy we just signed."  Finally they signed o-lineman Robert Gallery in a move that says "we know this is high risk high reward but we are just one piece away from being good" even though they're not.  So confusing, especially since Marshawn Lynch is still their only running back.  Needless to say, I took the under on their team total wins of . 
-  So Randy Moss retired, which I guess is a pretty big deal in the Football.  I'd call him the best receiver I've ever seen play.  Jerry Rice put up better stats and, unlike Brett Favre and Pete Rose, was far more than just a compiler and the second best receiver I ever saw, but Moss blows him away.  I have two very distinct memories of him that immediately spring to mind - the Monday night game against Green Bay and the Thanksgiving game against Dallas.

The Monday night game I remember because I was in college and we were watching the game with a Green Bay fan (Hi WSCT-QB) and I remember by the second quarter he basically decided he was done with the game and proceeded to pound beers at a 2-1 rate to the rest of us.  The Dallas game I remember because Moss was just ridiculous, including a touchdown where the safety had the angle on him to the sideline, he put one move on, and somehow raced down the sideline blowing right past the Dallas guy - it was just amazing and his third TD of the game.  I was at the future Mrs. W's parents place for the day and basically made a fool of myself in front of my girlfriend's family celebrating, especially because her family wasn't exactly into the sports.  But I could help it.  It was incredible.  He was amazing to watch and in a way he saved Viking football.  I'll always love him.  JUNGLE FEVER!

-  As a commenter pointed out in the comments, which is where a commenter would naturally be found, it's Shark Week and I'm pleased to say I believe they fixed it.  The last few years Shark Week has kind of pissed me off for two reasons:

1. Not enough shows.  Basically the shark stuff was on from 8-10 each night and replayed from 10-12, but that was the extent of shark week.  And then the weekend was just replays from the previous shows that week, so really you were only getting 10 hours of shark programming each shark week.
2. Forcing their other programming into Shark Week.  A big chunk of the "new programming" each year was becoming Discovery taking their existing shows (Mythbusters, Dirty Jobs, etc.) and shoehorning Shark themes into.  Gay.  Just show some sweet shark footage and get the hell out of the way.

So this year they're showing new shoes from 8-10 each night (replayed 10-12) all seven nights and filling in almost the entire week of programming, all 24 hours or 20 hours or whatever amount of time isn't filled in with infomercials for the food dehydrator or various Ronco products (SET IT AND FORGET IT!!) with older shark shows and the new stuff is the good kind of stuff - sweet shark footage without gimmicks and straight science learnin'.  And as an added bonus, you'll notice National Geographic is running there own parallel, if not official, shark week although most of their shit is from 2007 or earlier.  Still.  Sharks galore.

-  I sent this out via the Twitter as well, but check out this little article from The Onion on your precious Twins:  http://bit.ly/pOrsYu

-  Finally, Dustin Ackley is a complete pimp.  Also Angie Harmon is still pretty hot.  Is she still with that white cornerback guy?

 

What an incredible body.  He must work out.

MLB 2011 Mid-Year Check-In, Part 2

Part 1 was yesterday (scroll down, genius) where I talked about the good things so far this year in MLB.  Now here are the bad:



1.  Joe Mauer.  I just recently let lose with a little Mauer diatribe, so instead of simply rehashing what I already said you can read it by clicking here.  Of note:  since I wrote that he's gone 6-17 and raised his average 20 points and, if you can believe this, even hit a double.  That's two bases with one swing.  I couldn't believe it either.

2.  Derek Jeter.  Apparently being "too tired" to play when you're "star" is getting to be an epidemic because Derek Jeter, arguably the biggest "star" in baseball depending on how you want to define that, begged out of tonight's all-star game due to "exhaustion."  I personally don't really care who plays and who doesn't because the whole thing is really kind of stupid, but the most idiotic thing I've heard in a long time came from a caller on the radio today who tried to explain, "You people did nothing but complain that he didn't deserve to be voted into the game, and now, because he's such a class act, he decides not to play so Asdrubel Cabrera can start, and you rip him for that." 

Seriously, dumbass?  I'm sorry and I know you love him, but captain intangiibles isn't a shining greek god of virtue and I don't care how many barbecues he invites his teammates too or how often he has Robinson Cano sleep over at his house and they tag-team Minka Kelly.  Look, I get it - he's a decent looking, non-threatening dude who plays the game well, isn't overly cocky, doesn't show up opponents, and bangs lots of chicks.  But there's a guy like him on every team except the fucking evil White Sox, and nobody knows what he (they) are like off the field.  Jeter could very well be a serial killer rapist arsonist litterbug for all we know, but because that shit I wrote earlier plus he plays in the biggest market for the most famous team and people can't stop making love to excuses for anything he does.

It's like that dude who caught Jeter's 3,000th hit and gave it away for some autographed shit and box seats.  Noble?  Moral?  How the hell is that noble or moral when the guy has over $100k in debt?  You owe it to yourself to get your life in order (and yes I know it's student loans not credit card bills, which kind of makes this more depressing) with your once in a lifetime lottery winning baseball and you toss it away to make an empty gesture to a guy who will make more this year than you'll make in ten lifetimes, will bring in nearly $300 million total by the time his career his over in just salary (not counting endorsements) and likely wouldn't cross the street to piss on your face if it was about to be run over by a car?  Guess what?  He's already forgotten about you.  And that $100k you owe?  That's what he makes in a day.

You know how they say that the lottery is really just a tax on stupidity?  Well, it's now being reported that this guy might have to pay something like $14k in taxes on the "gifts" he got from the Yankees.  Now that's really a tax on stupidity. 

3.  Florida Marlins.  The Marlins were looking like they were going to be a very nice story this year.  Smallest payroll on the team at $35 million, a team that had to trade Dan freaking Uggla because he was too expensive, and suddenly they ripped out of the box with a 30-20 start, and behind Josh Johnson were looking like a nice NL East sleeper team.  Then Johnson got hurt, they couldn't sustain their early momentum, they lost 19 out of 20, Hanley Ramirez proved he's more lazy than leader, they fired their manager, and are now 43-48 and 14 games out of first (and it's only that good thanks to a 5-game winning streak going into the break).  Now all they're good for is laughing at any highlights of their home games because there are about 16 people there.

4.  The entire Twins' bullpen.  Honest to god, is it really that hard to have one guy who you can trust to get three outs?  Perkins is the only full-time reliever with an ERA under 4.40 and if you trust him you're dumber that got into my van the other night.  Cappsie's WHIP looks respectable, but unfortunately it's accompanied by one of the worst HR allowed rates on the team and he seems to be on a rapidly accelerating slide from mediocre to pathetic.  Nathan can be excused, at least mostly, but there's no real reason for Jose Mijares to be putting up career worst numbers (he has more walks than strikeouts for christ's sake) and Phil Dumatrait and Alex Burnett may as well just put the ball on a tee.  And if anybody does pitch well (Chuck James and Anthony Slama have thrown 7 combined innings of 1-hit ball) they're immediately shipped out.  I mean is it time to make Anthony Swarzak your #1 set-up guy now?  Has it really come to this? 

5.  Adam Dunn.  Another guy I've talked about here before, but it's impossible to ignore how bad he's been.  Dunn has always done three things:  strike out like crazy, walk constantly, and hit a ton of home runs.  Well this year he's striking out at an all-time high rate, walking far less than normal (second lowest of his career), and is well on pace to hit the fewest homers he's ever had in a season.  Even the hits he always got accidentally aren't falling this year, and he's also hitting nearly 100 points below his career mark at just .160.  He's on pace for just 15 homers with 204 strikeouts, which would be the fewest home runs (by 9) by a batter with 180 or more Ks.  His .160 would be the worst batting average by a player with over 180 Ks by 38 points, and his (on pace for) 59 RBI would be the lowest ever by 11.  We are talking a truly, epically, pathetically putrid season, and the Sox just signed him for four years and $56 million.  Awesome.  

6.  Royals starting pitching.  Kansas City seems to be going the right way on the offensive side of the ball - Hosmer looks good, Butler is solid, Gordon seems to be figuring it out, and they got all those other prospects on the way.  On the hill, however, they have some of the worst arms in history, and that's why they couldn't sustain their semi-hot start.  Three of the five worst WHIPs among starting pitchers with at least 50 innings belong to Royals:  Kyle Davies (1.92), Sean O'Sullivan (1.78), and Danny Duffy (1.64).  Duffy, at least, is clearly part of their future (assuming he develops) but if that's the strategy then retreads who suck like Jeff Francis and Bruce Chen don't make much sense either.   

7.  Twins' injuries.  You guys ever wonder what's going on with the Twins and how many games they miss due to injury?  Doesn't it seem pretty ridiculous, like something must be wrong?  Morneau missed the entire second half of last year with a concussion and Denard Span is chasing his games missed record.  Meanwhile 1-2 weeks seems pretty standard.  Mauer has missed 2-months this year with some bizarre, mysterious injuries and it's not the first time he's done that.  Then you have Kubel, who has now missed a month and a half with an injured foot, and is expected to miss another 1-2 weeks post all-streak, and I'm pretty sure Delmon Young has missed a couple weeks on two separate occasions this year - once due to being cold and once due to being tired.  I just don't get it, man.  Either this team has the worst trainers in the world or is the biggest collection of babies outside of a lactation convention.

8.  Ubaldo Jimenez.  It's always kind of tough to trust one-year wonders, especially starting pitchers, and Ubaldo is showing you why.  After maybe one of the most impressive first halves of a season in recent baseball history he started to fade late last year and has continued that slide right into a mediocre, irrelevant, mid-rotation pitcher.  His numbers this year (4.14 ERA/1.30 WHIP) are nearly identical to Carl Pavano's (albeit with far more Ks and BBs).  This from the same dude who finished 3rd last year NL Cy Young voting, so consider if Johan Santana was here in his prime and suddenly turned into Carl Pavano.  You know, like Scott Erickson.

9.  Jim Riggleman.  I dig this because it's one of the most awesome examples of someone not nearly understanding how much value and leverage (or lack thereof) they actually have.  He's always been a terrible manager (career:  662-824) with just two winning seasons and one playoff appearance out of 10 tries.  He was signed as the Nationals manager, and appropriate match of awful to awful, and in this, the third year of his contract, he managed to get them to win 11 of 12 games and was pushing for management to sign off on his extension for next year (despite their overall record of 27-36 before that streak).  Management, wisely, chose not to do so at that point and so Riggleman resigned.  Full on jackassery, all the way around. 

10.  Clay Buchholz.  If you're sitting there still waiting for Buchholz to put it all together and become the stud he's seemed destined to become, get in line.  I swear I've drafted this hippie every year in fantasy baseball, and every year he turns out to be as brittle as Ralph Sampson's confidence.  Last year he looked like he might finally have done it, making 28 starts and registering a 2.33 ERA (2nd in the league), but after a rough start this year where he was allowing homers at a Matt Cappsian rate he's once again out with a back injury.  He's supposed to be ready soon after the break, but for those of us who have followed his career way too closely we know that's a dirty lie.


Finally, this is where I'd tell you to expect Grandslam to come in with his British Open preview at some point this week but I just asked him if he was going to do one and he said, "No, the Open is stupid played on stupid courses and you can't predict anything."

Nice expert.  As such, I'll at least try to get up some thoughts on this Wednesday night, but I have a pretty big work function that's expected to go from 6-10pm (at the earliest) so the odds aren't great.  I promise I'll try.  Unlike most of the Twins.

Week in Review - 6/13/2011

Guess who had Ruler on Ice to win the Belmont at 42-1?   Yep.  I know my only published pick (via Twitter) was Master of Hounds so you'll just have to take my word for it.  That means I've nailed the winner in the last two triple crown races and my two picks finished 2nd and 3rd in the Kentucky (and I picked the winner of the derby last year).  I think it's safe to say I'm awesome at handicapping horses.  So I celebrated by cooking up some steaks, and I want to share the method here with you - the Alton Brown method.  Simply salt and pepper your steak, then turn a burner on the stove up to high and preheat your oven at 500 degrees.  Once everything is heated up, toss some olive oil in a cast iron pan and throw the steaks in there on the burner.  2-minutes each side to get a nice sear.  Then throw them in the oven and go two minutes per side again (may have to adjust up or down for desired doneness).  And that's it.  Super simple and completely delicious, maybe even superior to using the grill.  Give it a shot.

Now on to the boring part.

WHO WAS AWESOME

1.  Francisco Liriano.  He ended up losing the no-hitter and the shutout, but Franky's outing on Sunday against Texas was far, far more impressive than the actual no-hitter he threw earlier this year.  He was actually hitting his spots (first time ever?), his fastball had some major tail action on it, his slider was basically unhittable, and he was even using his change-up effectively.  He was perfect through six and didn't allow a hit until the 8th, which was almost inevitable after the Twins kept him on the bench for nearly a half-hour by battering a couple Texas pitchers for five runs in the bottom of the seventh in that rare occasion when you actually want your team to hurry up and get out.  You could tell his rhythm was broken after that (that's on him, of course, you need to be able to adjust to that) but altogether his performance was nothing short of dominant.  This version of Liriano is an ace, a game-changer, a slump stopper, and a potential playoff killer.  It's just too bad we only see this version once a month or so. 

2.  Ben Revere.  Snacks already claimed him as his new favorite player so I won't step on any toes, but man I really like Revere right now.  He's not perfect or anything - he doesn't walk enough to be an elite leadoff guy, he has no power at all, and his arm would be better suited to playing second base - but what he does have is energy, speed, great center field instincts, and he's giving the team what they need - a jolt of energy.  Infield hits, bunt hits, reaching base on a wild pitch after striking out, stealing bases, he's just really fun to watch.  Now, I know this schtick will get old unless he learns to walk, learns to have a little power, or can hit .330, but for now you can put me in the "big fan" camp, and I think he has far more potential than Gomez.  I don't know that he'll ever develop much power, but his plate discipline says he should learn to walk and he did hit over .300 at every minor league level, so I'm encouraged.  Side note - I was going to sponsor his baseball-reference.com page, but some jackhole beat me to it. 

3.  Dallas Mavericks.  It's tempting to give most of the credit for the big finals win to Dirk, but really there are a bunch of guys who carried this team at times.  Terry had a monster game in the clinched and was their whole offense in the first half, Kidd was hitting his shots and running the offense as only an old man can, and Tyson Chandler had the kind of finals that makes guys millions, if only he was a free agent.  Hell, even Deshawn Stevenson made a difference, both with his defense on baby soft Lebron and his 3 big 3-pointers in the first half tonight.  I hate manufactured crap like "this is what happens when a real 'team' takes on 'superstars"", but for this series at least it was the truth.  Miami had no answer for the fluid way Dallas played together and thank god.  On a happiness scale I'm not sure if I'm happier that Dirk won or Lebron lost, but they both rank way up there.

4.  Mike Leake.  Welcome back, Mr. hippie surfer shoplifter, welcome back indeed.  He had an insane rookie year that saw him skip the minor leagues entirely and get off to an absolutely blistering start (5-0, 2.22 ERA through early June), but since then things have been very rocky.  He ended up burning out last year and was shut down in late August after he put up an ERA of almost six and a half in his next 10 starts and a disastrous move to the bullpen.  This year has been rough as well with an injury, the whole shoplifting thing, his first ever minor league action, and a move to the bullpen, but things might be coming around now.  Back-to-back 8 inning efforts with just two total runs allowed and and 11-to-2 strikeout to walk ratio this week.  Love this guy, love everything about him, and very glad to see him back to makin' hitters look like fools, as well as seeing him back on our fantasy team.

5.  Mike Moustakas.  Yet another one of Kansas City's stud prospect, third baseman Mike Moustakas made his debut this past week and .  Eric Hosmer looks like the real deal and Alcides Escobar is their SS of the future who is valuable even if his hitting doesn't come around, so they've got 3/4 of the infield covered.  Now, Moustakas and Hosmer were generally ranked #1 and #2 in their system, so not everyone else has their pedigree, but it's notable that they have catcher covered (Wil Myers, #8 prospect in all of baseball by Keith Law) so if they can just find a few competent outfielders (I think Jarrod Dyson has a future similar to Escobar, but in CF) their future lineup should be pretty well set.  The biggest question will be enough pitching will develop to make them competitive, but the minors are pretty heavily laden with big-time pitching prospects (including Danny Duffy, Jeremy Jeffress, Aaron Crow, and Tim Collins who are already up).  Things better come together, because I have a $100 bet with Snacks that the Royals will win the AL Central before 2015, and god knows I can't afford to lose that kind of money.  I would hate to have to choose between booze and feeding my kids.  I think we all know which way that one is going to go.


WHO SUCKED

1.  Colby Lewis.  You remember good ole Colby, the dude who the Twins chased on Saturday after just more than an inning?  You might remember him as the guy who gave up two hits each to Alexi Casilla and Delmon Young despite pitching just one and third innings.  Not to mention giving up a sick number of hits/runs in between and getting run early with a final line of 1.1ip/7h/6er.  Ouch.  But what you might not know is that he also pitched against the Tigers earlier this week and might actually have pitched worse.  Line:  3.1 ip/10 hits/9er/4 hr.  Yes, that's nine earned runs and 4 homers allowed - two of which were to that piece of crap Brennan Boesch.  So, in case your math skills are bad or you are a girl, that's 15 earned runs allowed in one week and that includes a game against the Twins triple A lineup.  In all seriousness I really hope Mr. Lewis has been saving most of his money, because that paycheck might be drying up pretty quick here.  Actually what do I care?  Guy sucks.  Get a real job, hippie!

2.  Tim Lincecum.  Since he's in the NL you probably have no idea he's been brutal. In fact, even if you're paying attention he doesn't look that bad - 3.41 ERA and 1.19 WHIP - but this week he's been completely brutal.  He had two starts this week and in the longer outing he lasted five innings, and that was against the epically shitty Nationals.  The Reds are at least good, but when you're Lincecum you just don't give up 7 hits and 7 runs in 4 innings to anybody - and he only struck out one guy.  Very bad if you're a big fan of diminutive whirling dervish floppy haired pot-smoking hippy pitchers - or Wiley Wiggins.  The good news is nerd stats (I'll spare you) don't point to anything that's significantly different that normal so this is more likely a blip on the radar rather than indicative of a Soria-style breakdown or anything, but god, getting ripped by the Nats is just freaking embarrassing.  It'd be like getting busted by O'Bannion. 

3.  Oakland Athletics.  Wow are these guys god damn awful.  Look at that lineup and count the actual major league hitters.  I see David DeJesus and Josh Willingham, both who would be good fourth outfielders for a team, and Coco Crisp who is a quality leadoff hitter.  That's it.  Their infield has to be the worst collection in the league - other contenders like Seattle and San Diego at least have one quality bat (Justin Smoak and Chase Headley), but Oakland has nothing.  Throw in the injuries to starters Dallas Braden, Brett Anderson, Tyson Ross, and Brandon McCarthy and you can see why they've won just one of their last 14.   Of note:  they still have a better record than the Twins.  FML.

4.  Ryan Howard.  No, not the mid-level executive from a mid-tier paper company in Pennsylvania who was addicted to cocaine and then committed fraud, I'm talking about the fat first baseman for the Phillies.  You know, the guy who was inexplicably given a 5-year $125 million contract THAT DOESN'T EVEN START UNTIL NEXT SEASON despite the fact that his body type (fat to mostly fat) and playing style (high strikeout power hitter) mean that, at best, he's going to be a blacker Matt Stairs by the end of that contract.  And this week was a preview, because he had three hits all week (not counting today where he had three hits and three rbi which kind of negates this point but I already typed all those words before I looked it up and saw he had a good day today).  Any way the point is that Ryan Howard is fat and that was a stupid contract.  Like, Mauer-stupid.

5.  Lebron James.  I almost feel like you could just call out the entire Heat team as sucking, but the difference is that there were games where Bosh played amazingly well (including tonight), Wade pretty much carried the team the entire series, and Lebron was straight up invisible way too often so you have to pick him as the goat.  Not only did he handpick this team to win championships, but he hand picked this fucking team to win the championship.  This shit was orchestrated with one goal in mind and they failed.  And they didn't fail because of Wade (no surprise, the guy was nails in the playoffs and finals) and they didn't fail because of Bosh (surprisingly good this entire finals), they failed because Lebron was unable to carry the team for even small stretches and was about as valuable as that fat kid in Teen Wolf in the fourth quarter.  God there is just an amazing psychology paper waiting to be written on Lebron.  If I wasn't so dumb I would totally write it.  That's not true.  I'm too lazy.  I just want to go fishing.  


Lastly, just to brighten your week, here are Wonderbaby^TM's mad baseball skills on full display:

NBA Game 3. And Go.

I mostly covered everything that was interesting that happened this week in this post from Friday, so I won't rehash with a Week in Review post.  Instead I'll do sort of a running blog of the NBA game and mention anything from this weekend that pops into my head.  And you're going to sit there and like it.

-  First off I'm going to come right out and admit that today was an awful gambling night, one of the worst I can recall in recent memory.  If I haven't already told you this, my main gambling during baseball season is to spend time analyzing the player props and making the proper picks based on what my math says are the best plays.  So far this season (since a formula tweak in mid-May) the system has been +16.08 units, with only three losing days.  Then this weekend it went -1.31 units, -0.48 units, and today was -3.46 units, easily the worst gambling day of the baseball season.  Doesn't feel good.  With three straight losing days my confidence is shaken right now.  Stay tuned.

-  That being said, I could take today from a disaster to just a bad day by doing well on NBA props.  Here's what I'm going with:  Both teams combined under 14 made 3s, Chandler over 17.5 pts+rebs, Bosh over 8.5 rebs, Nowitzki over 7.5 made FTs, Terry over 1.5 made 3s, and Lebron over 1.5 made 3s.  It's gonna be a bad night either way, but if I can at least hit a majority of these I can mitigate it.  I really don't want to have to deposit again.  Sending a $500 Western Union moneygram to Manuel in the Philippines makes me feel icky.

-  I should also mention I'll just be doing the second half of the NBA game because I missed the first half.  Looking at the box score the Heat are up 5 at half and every single one of my bets is in absolutely terrible shape.  Good.  Great.  Grand.  Wonderful.

-  I guess if I'm going to talk sports I need to start with the Twins since they just swept the royals in a four game series.  I suppose it's tempting to think they may have righted the ship, and with Cleveland getting swept in four by Texas and the second place team barely hovering around .500 that they have a shot, but lets look a little deeper.  The offense in this four-gamer was driven by Revere-Rivera-Tolbert in Game 1, Span-Young-Revere-Hughes-Butera in game 2, Revere-Casilla-Tolbert in Game 3, and Casilla-Repko-Hughes in Game 4.  Do we really think those guys are that good, or was this lightning in a bottle?  And is the pitching, which held the Royals to 6 runs in the four games, suddenly clicking or is KC just that bad?  I hate to say it, but I think this was more the demise of 2011 Kansas City more than the resurgence of the Twins.  Haters gonna hate.

-  I love this Maverick team.  Miami scored 8 straight to open the half and drove their lead to 15.  So the Mavs just said, "ok" and made smart plays, smart passes, and good shots while Miami acted like a bunch of idiots and suddenly the lead is just 7.  Also I hate the Miami Heat and Cameron Diaz.

- Hottest player in ball not named Michael Morse:  Jose Reyes of the Mets.  He's 2-3 with a double with 2 runs and a ribbie tonight, which is his 10th straight game with a hit and his 12th multi-hit game in his last 18.  I'm going to write that again - he's had more than one hit in 12 of his last 18 games.  Before this Royals' series I don't know if the Twins had 12 multi-hit games by a player all year.

-  Yeah here's the problem with my Lebron over 1.5 made three pointers bet.  I forgot that he can't shoot for shit.

-  I really like Tyson Chandler.  I mean, offensively he's a bit retarded, but he just blocked two shots and then saved a ball back to his team by diving out of bounds.  The guy is the perfect kind of building block guy for a team.  Excellent defender, excellent rebounder, doesn't need to score but can put it in the hoop if he's close enough, but doesn't give a crap for scoring.  Not exactly what you'd want out of the #2 pick in the draft but considering Dallas got him basically straight up for Eduardo Najera I'd call that a steal.  Also, Mavs now lead.

-  James for three!!!!  I mean oh crap.  I mean good. I'm so conflicted.

-  Terry for three!!!!! Good!  I mean good!!!

-  By the way, I also have a pretty good chunk of change on both Wade for MVP and Dirk for MVP.  If Lebron wins it I'm probably going to have to sell at least one car.

-  I know what you're thinking:  didn't this used to be a Gopher blog?  And yes, it still is, but I know I haven't done much on the basketball team but really you should just shut up because it's the off-season and also you're being kind of rude.  But, very quickly, here is a very short rundown of the 5 unsigned players for 2012 that Rivals says the Gophers have offered:

• SG Gary Harris (Fishers, Indiana - #6 SG, #26 overall) - Very good player with a lot of quality midwestern offers including Indiana, Michigan State, Purdue, and Louisville.  He's not coming here.
• C A.J. Hammons (Mouth of Wilson, VA - #11 C, #55 overall) - a strong season has teams like Ohio State, Kentucky, and Purdue looking at him.  None of those teams have offered yet, but if he doesn't sign with Minnesota fairly soon it may be too late.
• G Javontae Hawkins (Flint, MI - #18 SG, #92 overall) - he's from Flint but Izzo doesn't want him so that's kind of weird.  He lists Ohio State, Michigan, USC, and West Virginia as the leaders (all have offered) and the Gophers are lumped with about 15 other teams behind them.  Outlook:  not likely.
• SF Demarquise Johnson (Phoenix, AZ - #28 SF, #122 overall) - Tubby is after him very hard, but he sounds like he's looking to stay on the west coast.  This is the guy I really want - he's athletic and can score from in or out.  Like everything I'm hearing about him.
• PF Khaliq Spicer (Dearborn Heights, MI - unranked) - Gophers are competing with a couple of crappy MAC and crappy A-10 teams (like Dayton) for his services, so it's either a diamond-in-the-rough situation or a reminder that the Gophers suck.  Sounds like he's a pretty good athlete, but also pretty raw, who would be that sweet ass rebounder and shot-blocker whose scoring range is "dunk."  I love that kind of guy, as long as he's a complimentary part of the class, not the focal point.

So there you go.  Three guys they won't get, one good one they might, and one they have to beat out Central Michigan for.  Whew, I'm overwhelmed here.  I'm sweating.  Dynasty here we come.

-  Uglier jumper:  Shawn Marion or random WNBAer?  No, you're right that's not fair.  Shawn Marion or random women's high school player?

-  So how about that Blake Lively?

-  I love it when Miami is stupid and leaves Dirk open for three (it's now 70-70 with 10 minutes to go).  On this one Dirk set a pick for J.J. Barea and both Chalmers and Haslem fall all over themselves to chase Barea and Wade doesn't even take a step out of the corner to rotate off of Terry.  Dirk open.  Dirk make.  Game tied.  Except Bosh just dunked on an absolutely gorgeous pass from Lebron.  I really wish he wasn't such a doosh.  Such a great passer.  Fourth best passer ever at that height:  Magic, Bird, Penny.

-  You know what I really hate?  Restaurants that automatically put lemon in your water.  Is this the default now?  Is lemon in water so freaking popular with people that it's just assumed everybody loves it?  Because guess what?  I hate it.  New rule:  from now on every time there's a freaking lemon in my water without my being asked I'm going to pour the damn thing out on the floor.  Join me, won't you?  Like they say in all those commercials with sad music and sad animals and sad babies or whatever, "Together, we can make a difference."  END LEMON WATER NOW!!!!

-  Ha ha go to hell Lebron.

-  Lebron has now been called for both a travel and a double dribble in the last five minutes.  Also if bitching to the refs was an olympic event they'd just skip gold and give him a platinum.  He's like if the Yankees and Kobe Bryant had a kid.  What if this thing was Lakers/Heat?  I'm pretty sure I'd be going Heat because I like Wade but god, talk about Sophie's Choice of douchery.

-  The Mavs have missed about 7 threes in the last 1 minute.  I don't like how this is going.  Heat up 6 with 4 to play.

-  Who the hell is Joel Anthony and why are we pronouncing his name Jo-El?  Is that' Superman's dad?

-  So I watched the original Tron the other day for the first time in at least 20 years.  It was really, really stupid.  Yet we get a long-awaited sequel to that and I"m still sitting here waiting for Jurassic Park 4.  That's really fair.  Although the last rumor I heard for a fourth Jurassic Park was military trained raptors with weapons strapped to their backs (I'm not kidding, that was a legit serious script) so maybe we just hold steady at three, which was actually one too many.  Really?  Raptors, which have been held up as the smartest of all dinosaurs through the entire trilogy, are going to suddenly NOT eat Dr. Grant and that kid because they blow air through a raptor skull?  And do we really need to bring in a bigger badass than the T-Rex?  I think he was doing just fine, thanks.  Go to hell, movie.  Go to hell.  At least we got Pterodactyls. 

-  FACT:  Jason Kidd cannot guard Dwyane Wade.  Also FACT:  Dwyane Wade's mom can't spell for shit.

-  Ha ha Lebron you donkey ass face!!!

-  Jason Terry has now missed 3 three-pointers, anyone of which would win me a bet.  I don't care if I lose all my bets if Dallas wins, but if Miami wins and I get cleaned out I'm going to be VERY unhappy.

-  Well the Heat won and I went 1-5 on my game bets.  Really just a fabulous day.  I'm never posting again.

-  Since I'm quitting blogging this will be the last thing I ever write on here, but I do need give a little shout-out to Mrs. W, who ran an entire half-marathon today, while I'm still tired today from mowing half the lawn yesterday.  Way to go, baby, and I know you are disappointed in 2:28, but I think it's pretty damn amazing, and I love that even after that you can still give me a look like I'm an idiot when I want to take your picture.

Has the Mexicutioner been Mexicuted?

You may remember this award winning post from last year where I pointed out Zack Greinke wasn't nearly the same pitcher as the previous Cy Young winning year and how I showed by digging deeper into the numbers than just wins, ERA, and WHIP that he was clearly off.  Some people called me an idiot, but you may recall he finished out the year with significantly worse numbers than the year prior, as I predicted.  Now I must turn my attention to another pitcher who has caught my worrying eye, coincidentally another Royal, in Joakim Soria.

Soria has been a fullly dominant closer for the past three years, never posting an ERA over 2.12 or a WHIP above 1.13 while saving an average of 38 games and striking out more than a batter per inning.  He started out the season pitching in 4 of their first 5 games, going 4 total innings and allowing just two hits and no runs while picking up a win and a save.  All sounds great.  But the number that really stood out to me was he had just one strikeout.  For a pitcher who averaged over at least one per inning in his career this looking like a minor red flag - maybe simple variance could account for it - but it was something I meant to look into.  Then came yesterday, when Soria entered the game with the Royals up 6-3 on the White Sox and after getting two ground outs allowed four hits and four runs to blow the save.  Worrisome from a guy like him.  I don't know where to find this info but I'm willing to bet he's rarely if ever blown a 3-run save.

Looking at ERA and WHIP would be meaningless here since our sample size of just five innings is so small and he has that monster of a blow-up on his resume, so like Greinke last year, let's look a little deeper.

Checking out his profile page at Fangraphs one thing immediately stands out:  velocity.  Soria's fastball has always been at 91-92mph throughout his career, this year it's at 89.6mph, over 2mph slower than last year and as we've seen with Nick Blackburn if your fastball is under 90 you can't miss or that thing is getting pounded, and it's even worse when that fastball is your best pitch as in Soria's case.

Due, at least in part, to that change in velocity he's also getting hitters to chase balls out of the zone far less and missing fewer bats.  Last year batters swung at 30.3% of his pitches that were outside the zone, this year that number is far lower at just 21.7%.  That 30.3% number ranked him in the top third of relievers last year, while that 21.7% number would put him dead last if it held up the entire year.

Obviously it's easier for batters to hit the ball hard if it's in the strike zone, so if you can't get them to chase you need them to miss - something Soria isn't doing this year either.  Overall contact rate on balls swung at is up, from 75.8% in his career to 84.2% this year, while the % of strikes he throws that are swinging strikes is way down (from 11.0% to 2.6%).

Finally, let's look at his approach.  Perhaps due to that drop in velocity he's relying far less on his fastball.  In his career he's thrown the heater 72.6% of the time, but this year he's thrown it just 55%, increasingly relying on his slider and his changeup, throwing both at more than double his career frequency.  Unfortunately for his career if you rank the effectiveness of his pitches it goes fastball, curveball (although it was bad last season), slider, change-up.

Basically Soria has lost velocity on his best pitch and is throwing his lesser pitches more often, causing batters to chase less and make more and better contact on the balls they do swing at which are more consistently in the zone.  Ouch.  And although regression to the mean works both ways and suggests he's going to get better, the changes detailed above coupled with a completely reasonable .316 BABIP make me think that this may not be a regression to the mean case - we may be at the mean already.

I hope not.  I like the guy, he's fun to watch, and he's on our fantasy team.  But I'm worried.

MLB Preview: American League

After I won multiple awards for my NL preview yesterday, I couldn't very well ignore the American League, especially since that's all anybody around here cares about.  So that's what we got goin' down here tonight, a little American League chatter.  


Also I want to mention as a public service announcement that although the 5-8 Club is famous for their Juicy Lucys you shouldn't ignore the broasted chicken.  It's not quite as good as any random place at least 1 hour north of the cities (and the more norther the better), but for a city joint it's very good.  


Anyway, here you go.

 
AL EAST

1.  Boston Red Stockings.  There's a reason all thdork Red Sox fans are so excited for their team - they're going to be really god damn good.  They signed the top 2 free agent position players available who filled holes for them in Adrian Gonzalez and Carl Crawford, have an excellent rotation 1-5, a bullpen good enough that they can ship Hideki Okajima to triple-A, and, lest you think their 3rd place finish last year means they're overrated, they still won 89 games and several key players (Pedroia, Ellsbury, Youkilis) missed substantial time last season. In short, no matter how much you hate them and their fans (and I do with one exception) this team is going to be a monster.  The shark move here would be to make sure and get Papelboner as your fantasy closer, since he's going to get a ridonkulous amount of save opps.

2.  New York Yankees.  They're lucky that the offense is loaded up because that rotation is brutal.  Sabathia is good, I guess, but AJ Burnett is terrible, Phil Hughes is a dandy, Freddy Garcia is dead, and Ivan Nova will be in AAA ball by June.  That said, they're going to be tough to beat and should win a lot of 8-6 ball games, plus with Soriano setting up for Rivera they essentially just have to outscore you through 7 innings.  Side note: if you look at the lineup there's absolutely no reason Derek Jeter should be hitting anything other than 8th or 9th.  Other than the intangibles of course.  And those piercing blue eyes.

3.  Tampa Bay Rays.  Whoever stocked up the Rays farm system did one hell of a job, because it seems no matter who leaves there is always a hot young prospect ready to step in, and that especially includes the pitching staff.  This year those guys will have to be dead on, because behind provens David Price and James Shields are a bunch of youngins - talented youngins in Wade Davis, Jeff Niemann, and Jeremy Hellickson - but young just the same.  Two other things:  1.  FREE DESMOND JENNINGS!  and 2.  Kyle Farnsworth as your closer?  Seriously?  I dropped them from #2 to #4 for that reason alone.  Then bumped them back to #3 because Evan Longoria is both awesome and sexy.

4.  Baltimore Orioles.  I feel bad for these guys, I really do.  After years of throwing good money after bad, making poor decisions, and decimating the farm system they're finally starting to do things right.  They got a solid manager (Buck Showalter), good young talent (Adam Jones, Nick Markakis, Brian Matusz, Jake Arrieta), with more on the way (Zach Britton, Manny Machado, Chris Tillman), and are signing reasonable free agents who make sense and fit with the roster (Derrek Lee, Mark Reynolds, Kevin Gregg, and trading for JJ Hardy).  Really they're doing a lot right and in any other division they'd be a sleeper to win it.  Here, however, fourth place is their absolute upside.

5.  Toronto Blue Jays.  This is definitely a fun team if you like a youth movement - the oldest pitcher in the rotation is 26.  They also have fun prospects like LF Travis Snider and C JP Arencibia who are going to be handed starting jobs and told to run with them.  If the youth is good and crap factories Adam Lind and Aaron Hill - two of the biggest disappointments in all of baseball last year - can bounce back this team might be able to threaten for fourth place.  That being said, this team would be a contender in the AL Central.  Thank god the Twins are in such a shitty division.


AL CENTRAL

1.  Minnesota Twins.  Hey, speaking of the Twins being in a shitty division, here I am picking them to win again even though I'm not remotely impressed with this team.  If you're reading this you probably know everything you need to about the Twins so all I'm going to say is I hate hate hate hate hate the middle infield and I still don't understand the Hardy trade, but my biggest question is how they handled the whole Scott Diamond thing.  Trading Billy Bullock, he of the 150 strikeouts in 108 innings in two years at age 22 and the Twins second-round pick just TWO FUCKING YEARS AGO means that Diamond better be the best god damn reliever in history.   AGAGDASHKJ the season hasn't even started yet and I'm already mad.  Let's just move on.

2.  Detroit Tigers.  You know who I love this year?  Justin motherfuckin' Verlander.  He's been awesome the last several years, no doubt, but I think this is the year he goes from awesome to AWESOME.   I also love Austin Jackson, and I think if he can just have half of Delmon Young's plate discipline he's got super star written all over him, and the youngster SP duo of Scherzer and Porcello has got potential.  That's it that I like on that team because I hate everybody else including fat alcoholic and girl hair McGee.  I guess I don't hate Will Rhymes, but that's not because of his play (Punto-esque) but because of his sweet name.  If Snow had just called himself Will Rhymes Informer would have hit #1 on the charts.


3.  Chicago Gay Sox.  Ever have a player you love (Adam Dunn) who goes to a team you hate with every fiber of your being?  I always loved Mike Mussina and it broke my heart when he signed with the Yankees, but I never really really cared because it was AL East crap.  This time it's really going to test me.  I harbor no ill will towards Dunnsy right now, but I'm pretty sure the first time he takes a Nick Blackburn 88 mph heater 500 feet the other way (and you know it's coming) I'm pretty sure the hatred will rise up quickly.  Looking forward to the Twins facing Jesse Crain though, pretty sure we have some guys who will return that 500 foot favor.  Of course I'm assuming/hoping they got old Crain, not fancy new Crain from the second half of last season.  Because that guy was good.  Ah god dammit.  This is going to be so frustrating.

4.  Kansas City Royals.  Holy shit you guys are these last two teams brutal.  Honestly these might be the two worst teams in the entire league.  I'm going to throw the Royals in the lead because I like that fat doubles machine and $nake has a shirt of the Mexecutioner.  There's your upside, plus that Hawai'ian dude who's slugging like 3 in spring training.  The future is supposedly very bright here, which is good because the present is full of Jason Kendall and Bruce Chen.  No shit.  The Chenner.  Want to know how fucked up the Royals' are?  ESPN lists Melky Cabrera as their starting CF and starting RF, and that seems like it might be accurate.

5.  Cleveland Indians.  Carlos Santana is going to be awesome.  That's the entire list of positives I can come up with unless you believe in Justin Masterson (kind of sort of) or think Matt LaPorta might still be good (no chance).  Since I got nothin' else to say, here's a picture of a naked Grady Sizemore:

You know you love it.


AL WEST

1.  Oakland Athletics.  Ok fine, I'm buying in.  If San Francisco can win an entire World Series on the strength of their pitching staff, why can't Oakland win a crappy AL West on the strength of theirs?  Trevor Cahill and Brett Anderson are studs in the making, Gio Gonzalez is nasty, and Dallas Braden has the soft-tossing lefty thing down pat.  Add in bullpen additions in Brian Fuentes and Grant Balfour and I really like the pitching they've got here.  The offense was downright dreadful last year, and although the pick-ups of David DeJesus, Josh Willingham, and Godzilla will help it still isn't going to be pretty.  This is going to be another team that's going to have to win those 3-2 ball games quite a bit if they're going to contend.

2.  Texas Rangers.  These guys are the opposite of Oakland with their potent lineup that gets more potenter with Adrian Beltre at the hot corner, but with Cliff Lee gone the entire rotation is rather underwhelming, especially if you're like me and think they all suck outside of C.J. Wilson.  With such a shaky staff I don't understand why they're so strident in keeping Neftali Feliz as their closer.  Yes he was good last year, but he's easily the most talented pitcher on the team and came up through the minors as a starter, and since that's where they could maximize his value I'm baffled at the choice to keep him closing games.  Good for the rest of the AL, I suppose.

3.  Los Angeles Angels.  Just a massive pile of meh, which seems odd because these guys were perennial contenders not that long ago, but I guess missing out on Carl Crawford and having a back-up plan of standing around doing nothing will generally drag you down a smidge.  Jered Weaver and Dan Haren are a great 1-2 punch, especially since it turns out Weaver is actually good which shocked the hell out of me, but after that everybody is boring unless you think 1B Mark Trumbo can win rookie of the year.  I don't, because I have never heard of him.  When the left-side of the diamond is made up of Maicier Izturis, Erick Aybar, and Alex Rios you know damn well you aren't competing for anything, and don't forget their still trying to force Fernando Rodney to be a closer so they'll lose their share of close games as well.

4.  Seattle Mariners.  I picked these guys as my sleeper team last year.  Turns out I'm an idiot.  Good news though, they've taken major steps to turn this thing around by acquiring Jack Cust, Gabe Gross, Adam Kennedy, Miguel Olivo, and Brendan Ryan.  Jesus Christ guys, you only won 61 games last year and THIS is how you address your issues?  How can you be this shitty and only have three young, high upside guys in the entire system (Justin Smoak, Dustin Ackley, Michael Pineda)?  At least the Pirates and Royals look like they have a plan, and don't forget they had Cliff Lee!  What did they get for him, Smoak and a bag of balls?  This is terrible.  I can't wait until Felix forces his way out, maybe the Twins can get him for Cuddyer and Dusty Hughes.


POSTSEASON AND AWARDS:

NL MVP:  Troy Tulowitzki (alternate:  Buster Posey)
AL MVP:  Adrian Gonzalez (Evan Longoria)
NL Cy Young:  Clay Kershaw (Roy Halladay)
AL Cy Young:  Justin Verlander (Jon Lester)
NL Rookie: Domonic Brown (Freddie Freeman)
AL Rookie:  JP Arencibia (Desmond Jennings)
NL Division Winners:  Phillies, Reds, Giants
NL Wild Card:  Brewers
AL Division Winners:  Red Sox, Twins, A's
AL Wild Card:  Yankees
World Series:  Reds over Red Sox