In lieu of a week in review post, since baseball's first half officially has come to a close I figured I'd do a Baseball's First Half in Review sort of thing. I'm going to avoid talking about some of the more obvious things like the breakout first halves of Mike Trout and Bryce Harper, the success of the Nationals in general, R.A. Dickey's sudden change to one of the best pitchers in baseball, or Tim Lincecum's fall of a cliff. I'm also going to avoid spotlighting obvious things anyone could have predicted coming into the season like Stephen Strasburg being unhittable, Joey Votto being a pimp daddy, or Nick Blackburn regularly getting lit up like a Christmas tree or a Portland hippie. I'm also not writing any Twins stuff in this because I've covered them plenty, especially the Twins' two biggest success stories this year in Ben Revere and Trevor Plouffe, so if you don't care about the rest of the majors I feel your time would probably best be used doing something else. Also Chris Sale is pretty awesome but I just wrote about him too so I'm not going to do it again.
So what did I find? Stuff. Will it be interesting? READ ON.
WHO WAS AWESOME
1. Gio Gonzalez. Generally moving from the AL to the NL benefits pitchers quite a bit, and Gonzalez is the latest and perhaps greatest example of that after the A's traded him to Washington prior to this season. He had always flashed significant potential, finishing in the top 10 in AL ERA twice, strikeouts twice, and HR/9 twice, but he also struggled with control, leading the league in walks in 2011 and finishing second in 2010. He hasn't exactly stopped walking people, and still ranks 7th in the league, but he's cut down a bit and compliments that by striking out more people than ever (10.5 per nine ips). He's giving up fewer homers and fewer hits, and has basically become an absolute monster and would be the ace of pretty much any staff that didn't also already have Stephen Strasburg on it. So, nice trade Beane.
HONORABLE MENTION (in this same type of category): Brandon Morrow.
2. Austin Jackson. Jackson, who if you remember was the key
component in the Curtis Granderson trade, had been heading towards a
solid career as a less speedy Gary Pettis - decent defense, poor
average, big strikeout totals, and very little power. In fact, two
years ago Jackson became the first player in MLB history to whiff 170+
times and hit less than 5 home runs, and the following season he because
the first player with 180+ strikeouts and 10 or fewer home runs - not
exactly a good trend. Then there were reports over the offseason that
Jackson was revamping his swing and unlike most of those kind of
adjustments boy has this paid off with Jackson basically becoming a
completely different player. His K rate is down to a more manageable level (still high, but more like Josh Willingham than Adam Dunn), his walks are up to where he's actually a respectable leadoff hitter, and he's second in the AL in batting average at .332. That's guaranteed to drop in the second half because his BABIP is a ridiculous .420, but his line drive rate is up and, after popping up 5% of the time last season he has yet to hit a single infield pop-up this year, one of just four players who hasn't this season - a key thing for a speedy player. Simply put, he identified his weaknesses, worked to fix them, and it's worked. It's actually really cool, and although it's not at the Jose Bautista revamped his swing and reinvented himself level, I still think he deserves a ton of credit.
HONORABLE MENTION: Andrew McCutchen.
3. James McDonald. McDonald has always been a nondescript pitcher. He was drafted in the 11th round by the Dodgers in 2002 and then traded to Pittsburgh in 2010 in the Octavio Dotel deal. Whether with LA or the Pirates he's basically been the definition of league average. Now, suddenly, he like, gets it. His strikeouts are up, homers and walks are down, and he's holding opponents to a batting average under .200. Sure he's getting a bit lucky, but he's also got a wicked curveball that, according to fangraphs pitch values metrics, ranks alongside such noted curvesmiths as Justin Verlander, A.J. Burnett, and Stephen Strasburg . Not too shabby. He probably can't keep up at quite this pace, but for now he's first in the league in fewest hits allowed per nine and 3rd in ERA, and a big reason why the Pirates are actually in first place. Well I suppose Andrew McCutchen is really the biggest reason, but McDonald is on that list there somewhere. Near the top, too. Like, way ahead of that Garrett Jones.
HONORABLE MENTION: Jason Hammel.
4. Carlos Ruiz. If you're like me, you just assumed Carlos Ruiz was just some big dumb fat catcher who couldn't hit, and before this year you'd have been correct. He always had a good batting eye, with more walks than strikeouts in his career and a career OBP nearly 100 points higher than his career batting average, but that batting average was just .265 coming into this season. This year, however, he's been more aggressive at the plate and has stopped hitting so many flyballs and pop-ups, and it's resulted in a huge increase in average (hitting .350) and a monster increase in power (ISO of .237 over double last season's number), and he's already surpassed last year's totals in HRs and RBI. Like most jump-ups like this he's had quite a bit of luck on his side this year, but it doesn't look completely fluky, and Ruiz has taken himself from journeymen to all-star by being more aggressive. Just think what that could do for Joe Mauer. Just kidding, I think the real problem is the chicken arms.
HONORABLE MENTION: Yadier Molina.
5. Josh Reddick. No matter what you think of Billy Beane, and there's no doubt he's a pretty divisive figure, one thing you have to give him credit for is realizing that saves are more a product of opportunity and environment than skill and constantly shipping out his closers for prospects. He's traded Billy Koch, Billy Taylor, and Huston Street, and this offseason he traded Andrew Bailey to the Red Sox for a couple of minor league dorks and Reddick, who I'm guessing the Sox figured they didn't need with studs who never get hurt like Carl Crawford and Jacoby Welker running around in the outfield. Well, Reddick has been absolutely mashing this year, to the tune of 20 homers (8th in the AL), 37 extra-base hits (10th), and an ISO that ranks 12th. He'll never hit for a super high average, but he can probably be a Josh Willingham type for them, except he leads the team in average, homers, rbi, hits, OBP, doubles, runs, walks, slugging, and OPS and would lead most teams in triples with four but Jemile Weeks has five, and he's under team control until 2017. So again, no matter what you think about Beane, this was a fucking slam dunk of a win on this trade, especially since Bailey hasn't pitched this year. And if you're wondering how the A's can manage after shipping off their closer the guy currently manning the role, Ryan Cook, has a WHIP of 0.91, ERA of 1.46, and just made the all-star team. In other words, PLEASE FOR THE LOVE OF GOD TRADE MATT ASSHOLE CAPPS.
HONORABLE MENTION: Edwin Encarnacion.
WHO SUCKED
1. Ricky Romero. Through the first 3 years of his career Romero looked like a future star for the Blue Jays. His ERA got beater in each of his three seasons, with his strikeouts rising and WHIP falling, culminating in a 10th place finish in Cy Young voting last season after going 15-11 with a 2.92 ERA. Everything looked like he was ready to become a true ace this year. But yeah, that didn't even come close to happening. Rather than taking the next step forward he's taken two giant leaps back, and goes into the break with an ERA of 5.22, which is nearly double his ERA from last season, and for those who are true nerds his FIP and xFIP are significantly higher than last year as well. And this isn't someone who started poorly and is trying to claw his way back, he's been bad throughout the year. His first start of the season ended with his ERA at 7.20 and in his last six starts his ERA is over 8.00. His Ks are down, his walks are way up, and he's getting laced around the park with a Line Drive rate far higher than either last year or his career number. The Blue Jays needed dudes to really step up if they were going to legitimately compete in the AL East - Brandon Morrow and Edwin Encarnacion did, but Ricky Romero and his family is a dick.
DISHONORABLE MENTION: Justin Masterson.
2. Detroit Tigers. I can't remember a team being so anointed as easy division champ getting off to such a horrible start, and seeing as we're halfway through the season this may be approaching trend rather than mirage territory. And their studs are doing what they're supposed to; Cabrera and Fielder and hitting well, Austin Jackson (see above) is having a great season, and Justin Verlander has been just as good this year as last year when he won both the Cy Young and MVP awards. It's just everyone else who has been horrible. They actually rank middle of the pack in both Runs Scored and Runs Allowed in the AL, but mainly that's because of those good players doing good stuff. The rest of the rotation has been terrible (although they'd all be aces on the Twins, fyi) with Scherzer unable to take the next step in his development and Fister unable to replicate his success at the end of last season, and they have the worst hitting 2b and RF stats in the league and are in the bottom five in LF and SS as well. Plus, what everyone said would be their biggest issue - defense - has been. They rank dead last in Ultimate Zone Rating in the majors. All it really means is they're going to throw money and prospects around and pick up guys like Marco Scutaro and Shane Victorino and suddenly end up in great shape. God I hate these guys. But I'd still much rather see them win than the god damn White Sox.
DISHONORABLE MENTION: Philadelphia Phillies.
3. Justin Upton. Upton is another guy who looked like he was about to become a super star after a monster 2011 for the D-Backs that landed him in 4th place in the MVP voting. His average was up, his strikeouts were down, he was walking more, and his power had jumped through the roof. After a 30/20 season, and based on his physical tools, it looked like Upton was going to fulfill the potential that his brother B.J. still hadn't. Not so fast, because instead he completely lost all power and is once again striking out a ton. He has just 7 home runs this year after 31 last season, and isn't hitting any doubles either. His power numbers (specifically ISO), which was in Miguel Cabrera/Albert Pujols tier last season has dropped to where he's more in the Denard Span/Marco Scutaro grouping - gross. He's gone from top 4 in the NL MVP to where he'd probably finish seventh or eighth on his own team. Also I drafted him in the first round of our fantasy draft, and he's OPSing just slightly better than Drew Butera. My bad, $nake.
DISHONORABLE MENTION: Albert Pujols.
4. Dan Haren. It always boggles my mind when an established "star" pitcher suddenly runs of the rails and just gets lit up night after night. Obviously Lincecum is the biggest example of this, but Haren is right there and right now both his WHIP and ERA would be career worsts. He has had a little bit of bad luck but mostly he's just getting raked, particularly in the home run category where his 16 allowed are the 8th worst in the AL and almost match his total from last season of 20. The slightly high BABIP and giant jump in HR/FB rate say this is a fluke, but he's also lost more than a mile per hour off his fastball from last season and at the same time is relying on it more often, and batters are chasing less often as well. All this tells me I'd be very, very nervous right now if I was hooked into him long-term, but luckily for the Angels they can buy him out next year for 3.5 million if he continues to suck. At which point somebody is going to end up giving him something like 5 years & $50 million and then we'll all be like hey look it's Barry Zito.
DISHONORABLE MENTION: Jon Lester.
5. Kansas City Royals. I'm going to shoot myself in the face for buying into this crap and betting Snacks $50 they'd win a division title by 2014, because once again, shocker, the Royals suck ass and literally the only positive thing you can say about their season is at least they aren't the Twins (or Mariners, Cubs, Phillies, Astros, Padres, or Rockies). When does all this talent come together? Eric Hosmer is hitting .231, somehow Eric Gordon and Jeff Francoeur are still prominently involved, and supposed future building blocks like Lorenzo Cain and Johnny Giavotella are struggling to hit around the mendoza line when they aren't down in AAA. And Humberto Quintero has 144 plate appearances for them for christ's sake, so they might want to get that position figured out as well. And don't even get me started on the pitching, because good god. The two guys with the most innings pitched this year, Luke Hochevar and Bruce Chen, are two of the most hittable pitchers in the history of baseball, and clown shoes like Luis Mendoza, Vin Mazzaro, and Everett Teaford have been fixtures in the rotation this year. I almost feel stupid for buying that KC hat, because I hate feeling like I've been duped. Prove me wrong, kids, prove me wrong.
DISHONORABLE MENTION: Miami Marlins.
I'm sure I missed a billion things. Sue me.
Showing posts with label Dan Haren. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Dan Haren. Show all posts
Sunday, July 8, 2012
Sunday, July 25, 2010
Week in Review - 7/26/2010 (Dan Haren edition)
God damn it.
WHO WAS AWESOME
1. Delmon Young. No joke guys, I think we've reached the point where Delmoney is absolutely carrying this team. In terms of the batters, that is, since really Pavariano is the combo that's really getting it done. But batting-wise ever since that Canadian fella whacked his head like Billy-Bob, Delmon has become the man. He's basically the third best hitter on the team this year, and that is only if you count Thome. He's locked in the way Mauer was last year and Morenau was most of this year.
And he even made a play on Saturday night where he sprinted into the corner to catch a fly ball and then tossed out Miguel Tejada tagging (inexplicably) from first to second. I'm starting to think something special is happenign. Perhaps the best sign is what's coming out of the clubhouse from Gardy, Thome, and other teammates. I know it's basically their job to blow smoke up the media and fan's collective ass, but last year you never heard anything positive about Delmon off the field (or on, for that matter) so even the faintest praise is a pretty positive sign. And in this case the praise is flowing like the salmon to Capistrano, so we may very well have a monster breaking out here.
2. Miguel Cabrera. Speaking of people who are overshadowing the advillian-challenged Morneau, Cabrera pretty much has the AL MVP wrapped up and we aren't even to August yet, and he killed pitchers again this week. 13-27 this week with 9 RBI, and he's now hitting .348/.421/.650 on the year, and is now first in slugging and second in OBP and AVG in all of baseball, and on top of that is third in home runs and first in RBI. So he's basically doing what Joe Mauer did last year, but add in a possible triple crown. Just a tremendous season so far. I hope he hits Dan Haren in the face with a line drive.
3. Kelly Johnson. He hit for the cycle, which would be way more exciting but I know pretty much nothing about him. I know he's a Diamondback and used to be a Brave, and I know he's a second baseman. Does he play any other positions? I don't know. Does he hit .220 or .320? Is he a 5 HR hitter or a 25 HR hitter? Does he steal 3 bases or 60? These are all answered with a shrug and a self-deprecating yet charming smirk. So congrats on your cycle Kelly. You've got a hell of a legacy going on here. I hope you enjoy playing with the crap the Angels gave away to steal sexy Dan Haren away from you.
4. Danny Valencia. I still think he's probably a slap-hitting nancy girl, but I've been noticing that a lot of his hits lately are more of the line drive variety than the bloop/seeing eye grounder variety. He put together back-to-back 3-for-5 games over the weekend, and he's now hitting .346/.398/.395 for the year, and if that was over an entire season thus far he would rank as the fifth best third baseman (OPS-wise) in the American League behind Adrian Beltre (wait, what?), Evan Longoria, A-Rod, and Michael Young. Is he that good? No, certainly not, and with a a slugging percentage lower than his OBP he is definitely a slap-hitting Judy, but still I feel slightly impressed. He'd be a much better prospect to give the Diamondbacks than what the craptastic Halos gave for Haren, and not nearly good enough that they'd actually miss him. Nice work, jackasses.
5. Dan Haren. He gets to pitch for a contender and gets to stay on the West Coast, the two things he said he wanted. Well played, Haren. Well played indeed. Of course, he also said that going to a contender was the most important thing, and that he simply preferred to stay on the West Coast. The Twins are a contender, allegedly, and would have been a good landing place. This sucks.
WHO SUCKED
1. Twins. I know they could have come up with a better offer than what the Angels gave for Haren. I know they could have, because the offer the Angels put together was Joe Saunders, two middling prospects and a player to be named later. I plan to look at this further, but for right now my first reaction is that this is a bunch of crap, and they were too pussy to put a real offer out there. Seriously, this was the year to make a move like this. The lineup is going to be worse next year. Right now they have Hudson (when he's not hurt), Hardy (when he's not hurt), and Thome and next year they are going to end up going back to Tolbert, Casilla, and Harris. Bank on it. This was the time to make the move. And if it didn't work out, Haren would still have trade value and they could flip him next year or two year's from now if needed. Just a bullshit chicken-shit move. Enough already with the small market bullshit. Maybe I'm ungrateful, but I'm sick of scratching by to win the division and getting run right out of the playoffs. Make a move already. God I'm emotional right now. This must be what women feel like all the time.
2. Diamondbacks. I'm too sleepy to look it all up, but over and over and over again the Arizona brain trust, and I mean that the same way people refer to David Kahn as the T-Wolves brain trust, said they would have to be blown away by an offer and that this wouldn't be a "salary dump." Well guess what, assholes? This was a straight salary dump. They got a mediocre left-handed starter, a B prospect, a C prospect, and a nothing prospect. Basically equivalent to a Twins offer of Slowey, Jesse Crain, Adrian Salcedo, and Matt Bashore. Who? Exactly. The Twins could have bettered that offer with minimal effort and minimal affect on the overall minor league system. Awesome. Just awesome.
3. Paul Casey. Here is the list of golfers who ranked higher than Paul Casey on the World Golf Rankings who played with him at the FBR Open in Canada this weekend:
Yep, nobody. And yet, Mr. #8 in the world couldn't be bothered to make the cut. Of course, neither did Sean O'Hair, Scott Verplank, Fred Couples, or Mike Weir, leading to a thrilling Sunday showdown between Carl "The Swedish Boss Hog" Petterson and Dean "Can't tell if he's Asian or not" Wilson. This is where I would tell you who won, but you don't care and it doesn't matter. And also I don't actually know because I didn't watch. I was too busy crying.
4. David Ortiz. I somehow found myself watching the Boston/Seattle game Friday night, even though I didn't have money on it and had zero fantasy players involved. No, I have no idea what I was doing there. Not really the point, Tito. The point is that with one out and the bases loaded in the top of the sixth in a 1-1 game, David Ortiz was picked off of third base. And not by the pitcher on something weird, by the catcher. And not by the catcher on a blocked ball in the dirt. It was on a set play by the Mariners where the pitch was outside and the third basemen broke to cover and the catcher winged it down there as soon as he caught it. Which tells me that it wasn't an isolated incident, but Ortiz was getting way too far off the base regularly. Seriously where exactly was he going? Where did David Ortiz think he was going? Was he going to steal home? Score on a ball in the dirt? What could he have possibly had running through his head? I can't decide if this is more Lew Ford or more Denard Span. Maybe it's more Bill Smith. You know, screwing something easy and simple and obvious up beyond all repair.
5. Life. You win again. I feel like WonderbabyTM when she met Santa.
Apologies to Rickie Weeks who probably deserved a spot in the Awesome column, but I had to give props to Danny Haren instead. It's been a long time since I've had my heart broken like this. I need to go drown my sorrows in alcohol and tears. Maybe a nice bundt cake.
WHO WAS AWESOME
1. Delmon Young. No joke guys, I think we've reached the point where Delmoney is absolutely carrying this team. In terms of the batters, that is, since really Pavariano is the combo that's really getting it done. But batting-wise ever since that Canadian fella whacked his head like Billy-Bob, Delmon has become the man. He's basically the third best hitter on the team this year, and that is only if you count Thome. He's locked in the way Mauer was last year and Morenau was most of this year.
And he even made a play on Saturday night where he sprinted into the corner to catch a fly ball and then tossed out Miguel Tejada tagging (inexplicably) from first to second. I'm starting to think something special is happenign. Perhaps the best sign is what's coming out of the clubhouse from Gardy, Thome, and other teammates. I know it's basically their job to blow smoke up the media and fan's collective ass, but last year you never heard anything positive about Delmon off the field (or on, for that matter) so even the faintest praise is a pretty positive sign. And in this case the praise is flowing like the salmon to Capistrano, so we may very well have a monster breaking out here.
2. Miguel Cabrera. Speaking of people who are overshadowing the advillian-challenged Morneau, Cabrera pretty much has the AL MVP wrapped up and we aren't even to August yet, and he killed pitchers again this week. 13-27 this week with 9 RBI, and he's now hitting .348/.421/.650 on the year, and is now first in slugging and second in OBP and AVG in all of baseball, and on top of that is third in home runs and first in RBI. So he's basically doing what Joe Mauer did last year, but add in a possible triple crown. Just a tremendous season so far. I hope he hits Dan Haren in the face with a line drive.
3. Kelly Johnson. He hit for the cycle, which would be way more exciting but I know pretty much nothing about him. I know he's a Diamondback and used to be a Brave, and I know he's a second baseman. Does he play any other positions? I don't know. Does he hit .220 or .320? Is he a 5 HR hitter or a 25 HR hitter? Does he steal 3 bases or 60? These are all answered with a shrug and a self-deprecating yet charming smirk. So congrats on your cycle Kelly. You've got a hell of a legacy going on here. I hope you enjoy playing with the crap the Angels gave away to steal sexy Dan Haren away from you.
4. Danny Valencia. I still think he's probably a slap-hitting nancy girl, but I've been noticing that a lot of his hits lately are more of the line drive variety than the bloop/seeing eye grounder variety. He put together back-to-back 3-for-5 games over the weekend, and he's now hitting .346/.398/.395 for the year, and if that was over an entire season thus far he would rank as the fifth best third baseman (OPS-wise) in the American League behind Adrian Beltre (wait, what?), Evan Longoria, A-Rod, and Michael Young. Is he that good? No, certainly not, and with a a slugging percentage lower than his OBP he is definitely a slap-hitting Judy, but still I feel slightly impressed. He'd be a much better prospect to give the Diamondbacks than what the craptastic Halos gave for Haren, and not nearly good enough that they'd actually miss him. Nice work, jackasses.
5. Dan Haren. He gets to pitch for a contender and gets to stay on the West Coast, the two things he said he wanted. Well played, Haren. Well played indeed. Of course, he also said that going to a contender was the most important thing, and that he simply preferred to stay on the West Coast. The Twins are a contender, allegedly, and would have been a good landing place. This sucks.
WHO SUCKED
1. Twins. I know they could have come up with a better offer than what the Angels gave for Haren. I know they could have, because the offer the Angels put together was Joe Saunders, two middling prospects and a player to be named later. I plan to look at this further, but for right now my first reaction is that this is a bunch of crap, and they were too pussy to put a real offer out there. Seriously, this was the year to make a move like this. The lineup is going to be worse next year. Right now they have Hudson (when he's not hurt), Hardy (when he's not hurt), and Thome and next year they are going to end up going back to Tolbert, Casilla, and Harris. Bank on it. This was the time to make the move. And if it didn't work out, Haren would still have trade value and they could flip him next year or two year's from now if needed. Just a bullshit chicken-shit move. Enough already with the small market bullshit. Maybe I'm ungrateful, but I'm sick of scratching by to win the division and getting run right out of the playoffs. Make a move already. God I'm emotional right now. This must be what women feel like all the time.
2. Diamondbacks. I'm too sleepy to look it all up, but over and over and over again the Arizona brain trust, and I mean that the same way people refer to David Kahn as the T-Wolves brain trust, said they would have to be blown away by an offer and that this wouldn't be a "salary dump." Well guess what, assholes? This was a straight salary dump. They got a mediocre left-handed starter, a B prospect, a C prospect, and a nothing prospect. Basically equivalent to a Twins offer of Slowey, Jesse Crain, Adrian Salcedo, and Matt Bashore. Who? Exactly. The Twins could have bettered that offer with minimal effort and minimal affect on the overall minor league system. Awesome. Just awesome.
3. Paul Casey. Here is the list of golfers who ranked higher than Paul Casey on the World Golf Rankings who played with him at the FBR Open in Canada this weekend:
Yep, nobody. And yet, Mr. #8 in the world couldn't be bothered to make the cut. Of course, neither did Sean O'Hair, Scott Verplank, Fred Couples, or Mike Weir, leading to a thrilling Sunday showdown between Carl "The Swedish Boss Hog" Petterson and Dean "Can't tell if he's Asian or not" Wilson. This is where I would tell you who won, but you don't care and it doesn't matter. And also I don't actually know because I didn't watch. I was too busy crying.
4. David Ortiz. I somehow found myself watching the Boston/Seattle game Friday night, even though I didn't have money on it and had zero fantasy players involved. No, I have no idea what I was doing there. Not really the point, Tito. The point is that with one out and the bases loaded in the top of the sixth in a 1-1 game, David Ortiz was picked off of third base. And not by the pitcher on something weird, by the catcher. And not by the catcher on a blocked ball in the dirt. It was on a set play by the Mariners where the pitch was outside and the third basemen broke to cover and the catcher winged it down there as soon as he caught it. Which tells me that it wasn't an isolated incident, but Ortiz was getting way too far off the base regularly. Seriously where exactly was he going? Where did David Ortiz think he was going? Was he going to steal home? Score on a ball in the dirt? What could he have possibly had running through his head? I can't decide if this is more Lew Ford or more Denard Span. Maybe it's more Bill Smith. You know, screwing something easy and simple and obvious up beyond all repair.
5. Life. You win again. I feel like WonderbabyTM when she met Santa.
Apologies to Rickie Weeks who probably deserved a spot in the Awesome column, but I had to give props to Danny Haren instead. It's been a long time since I've had my heart broken like this. I need to go drown my sorrows in alcohol and tears. Maybe a nice bundt cake.
Wednesday, July 21, 2010
I Have a Boner and its Name is Dan Haren
The more and more I think about this, the more and more I want Dan Haren. And I want him bad.
You can have your Roy Oswalt, but for me Haren is the best pitcher available. His stats might not look super pretty this year (4.60 ERA and 1.34 WHIP) but they are significantly higher than his career averages, and there's really no reason for concern. His K-rate and BB-rate have remained basically constant, as have his line drive rate and GB/FB ratio - the only big change has been in his BABIP, which essentially tells us that the only reason his numbers don't look that great is bad luck. Oswalt is a fine pitcher, a damn fine pitcher, but Haren is very similar from a mound standpoint but with more strikeouts, and he's three years younger.
What makes him more interesting than your average trade deadline available starter is he's not just a rental, for one, but also that none of the Yankees, Red Sox, or Mets are going to be involved, either because they aren't interested (Yanks, Sox) or don't have the horses (Mets), and those two issues bring the Twins in play. Of course, we can't just HAVE Dan Haren, as that's only allowed in basketball (see Gasol, Pau), and there are costs involved; both personnel and actual money.
Let's start with personnel, as in "what would the Twins have to trade to acquire Haren?" Any package discussed for this type of player generally starts with Wilson Ramos, and I don't see why the D-Backs would be an exception. I know they have a relatively young (27) catcher who can hit in Miguel Montero, but he seems to have some trouble staying healthy (although to be fair I'm only basing this on this season), and it doesn't appear there's much organizational depth behind him, so let's assume we start with Ramos as a base. If they don't want him, which would be weird, somebody like Ben Revere would work here as well.
From what I have read, mostly on John Sickels' most excellent blog, the Diamondback's system is pretty thin, particularly on the pitching side. I also read one GM told a reporter that they are currently asking for two starters and relief help. One thing I would guess they'd be interested in one of the Twins' current starters, someone with big league experience who is still young and cheap and can develop. Liriano is untouchable, Pavano makes no sense, Baker is too expensive, and Blackburn has zero trade value, so Slowey it is (and he's under team control for 3 more years). I won't shed any tears.
I'd also guess they'd like a top-ish level starting pitcher prospect. Kyle Gibson should be untouchable, but there is some depth here in the minors for pitchers. David Bromberg is a a guy I see tossed around as the #2 SP prospect for the Twins, and I'd be willing to include him, but he may be too steep a price. Plenty of other guys like Jeff Manship, Tyler Robertson, or Shooter Hunt could maybe get it done.
As far as relief help, assuming they'd be most interested in a young player with upside, why not Alex Burnett? He was considered one of the best reliever prospects in the system coming into the year, made the jump from AA to the majors and held his own most of the year, and he's just 22. There are a couple of other relievers on a similar tier (Rob Delaney, Carlos Gutierrez) who might fit what Arizona is looking for.
So what about a package of Slowey, Ramos, Bromberg, and Burnett? Might be kind of steep - these are a MLB caliber pitcher (maybe) and three of the team's top 21 prospects going into this year according to Aaron Gleeman, but if I'm Bill Smith I'd be willing to pay that price. I'd, of course, start by offering lower-ranked prospects (maybe Revere/Slowey/Manship/Delaney), but if my bluff got called I'd throw this one down on the table. I want to win, and I want to win now.
We also have to deal wit the real money, and this might end up being the real sticking point. It's true Haren represents a significant financial investment, as he is owed $12.75M next year and in 2011, and has a club option for $15.5 million in 2012 with a $3.5 million buyout. Sounds like a lot, and I suppose it is, but keep in mind Haren is a #1 pitcher-type. We already mentioned Oswalt, whose salary for next season is 28% higher than Haren's, but what about A.J. Burnett at $16.5M, John Lackey at $15.25, Jake Peavy at $17M, or Carlos Zambrano at $18M? There are pitchers all over the place making $12 million. I mean, the Orioles paid just slightly less for Kevin Millwood this year ($12 million). Really, his salary may sound like a lot, but it's a relative bargain compared to a lot of other pitchers.
But can the Twins afford him, is what you're wondering. Mauer's salary jumps next year by over $10 million, and Kubel (assuming they pick up his option), Rauch (ditto), Guerrier, Delmon Young, and others will get decent raises as well. They can drop some payroll back by not resigning Thome, Pavano, Hudson, and Hardy, and not picking up Punto's option. They could also drop $10 million by buying out Cuddyer. I have a feeling they would be able to bring him back cheaper, if they desired. He seems loyal like that. Like a dog.
But overall there's no doubt they would have to be willing to increase payroll to make this happen. It's also the kind of move that could lead to them not being able to keep Jason Kubel or even Liriano down the line, which is clearly not ideal. But don't you sometimes get sick of just fighting to make the playoffs, knowing odds are stacked heavily against them getting beyond the first round? Isn't it sometimes worth sacrificing something in the future for a real, legitimate chance to win now? This is the year they have the lineup to do it, and you know next year they'll be going back to more slap-hitters, so make the gamble now. DO IT.
Looking at the overall portrait here, doesn't it make sense to acquire Haren? A Haren/Liriano/Pavano rotation + whoever emerges from the rest of the mess playoff rotation would be enough to make them a World Series contender, assuming they end up winning the division after making this move (which they would be the favorite to do). Additionally, it's not like this is just a rental player. Getting him would give them a Liriano/Pavano head of the rotation for at least a couple years, which is good enough to keep them at the top of the division contender list at the very least.
We've heard about the new stadium. We've heard about the sell-outs. We've heard about the extra money. We've heard about the commitment to winning. So let's do this. Let's go and get Danny Haren. Come on, Twins. Small Market is really just a state of mind.
Plus, to help out, if you make this trade I will immediately go out and buy a Twins' Dan Haren jersey (ok, more like one of those t-shirt things with the player name on it.)
Deal?
You can have your Roy Oswalt, but for me Haren is the best pitcher available. His stats might not look super pretty this year (4.60 ERA and 1.34 WHIP) but they are significantly higher than his career averages, and there's really no reason for concern. His K-rate and BB-rate have remained basically constant, as have his line drive rate and GB/FB ratio - the only big change has been in his BABIP, which essentially tells us that the only reason his numbers don't look that great is bad luck. Oswalt is a fine pitcher, a damn fine pitcher, but Haren is very similar from a mound standpoint but with more strikeouts, and he's three years younger.
What makes him more interesting than your average trade deadline available starter is he's not just a rental, for one, but also that none of the Yankees, Red Sox, or Mets are going to be involved, either because they aren't interested (Yanks, Sox) or don't have the horses (Mets), and those two issues bring the Twins in play. Of course, we can't just HAVE Dan Haren, as that's only allowed in basketball (see Gasol, Pau), and there are costs involved; both personnel and actual money.
Let's start with personnel, as in "what would the Twins have to trade to acquire Haren?" Any package discussed for this type of player generally starts with Wilson Ramos, and I don't see why the D-Backs would be an exception. I know they have a relatively young (27) catcher who can hit in Miguel Montero, but he seems to have some trouble staying healthy (although to be fair I'm only basing this on this season), and it doesn't appear there's much organizational depth behind him, so let's assume we start with Ramos as a base. If they don't want him, which would be weird, somebody like Ben Revere would work here as well.
From what I have read, mostly on John Sickels' most excellent blog, the Diamondback's system is pretty thin, particularly on the pitching side. I also read one GM told a reporter that they are currently asking for two starters and relief help. One thing I would guess they'd be interested in one of the Twins' current starters, someone with big league experience who is still young and cheap and can develop. Liriano is untouchable, Pavano makes no sense, Baker is too expensive, and Blackburn has zero trade value, so Slowey it is (and he's under team control for 3 more years). I won't shed any tears.
I'd also guess they'd like a top-ish level starting pitcher prospect. Kyle Gibson should be untouchable, but there is some depth here in the minors for pitchers. David Bromberg is a a guy I see tossed around as the #2 SP prospect for the Twins, and I'd be willing to include him, but he may be too steep a price. Plenty of other guys like Jeff Manship, Tyler Robertson, or Shooter Hunt could maybe get it done.
As far as relief help, assuming they'd be most interested in a young player with upside, why not Alex Burnett? He was considered one of the best reliever prospects in the system coming into the year, made the jump from AA to the majors and held his own most of the year, and he's just 22. There are a couple of other relievers on a similar tier (Rob Delaney, Carlos Gutierrez) who might fit what Arizona is looking for.
So what about a package of Slowey, Ramos, Bromberg, and Burnett? Might be kind of steep - these are a MLB caliber pitcher (maybe) and three of the team's top 21 prospects going into this year according to Aaron Gleeman, but if I'm Bill Smith I'd be willing to pay that price. I'd, of course, start by offering lower-ranked prospects (maybe Revere/Slowey/Manship/Delaney), but if my bluff got called I'd throw this one down on the table. I want to win, and I want to win now.
We also have to deal wit the real money, and this might end up being the real sticking point. It's true Haren represents a significant financial investment, as he is owed $12.75M next year and in 2011, and has a club option for $15.5 million in 2012 with a $3.5 million buyout. Sounds like a lot, and I suppose it is, but keep in mind Haren is a #1 pitcher-type. We already mentioned Oswalt, whose salary for next season is 28% higher than Haren's, but what about A.J. Burnett at $16.5M, John Lackey at $15.25, Jake Peavy at $17M, or Carlos Zambrano at $18M? There are pitchers all over the place making $12 million. I mean, the Orioles paid just slightly less for Kevin Millwood this year ($12 million). Really, his salary may sound like a lot, but it's a relative bargain compared to a lot of other pitchers.
But can the Twins afford him, is what you're wondering. Mauer's salary jumps next year by over $10 million, and Kubel (assuming they pick up his option), Rauch (ditto), Guerrier, Delmon Young, and others will get decent raises as well. They can drop some payroll back by not resigning Thome, Pavano, Hudson, and Hardy, and not picking up Punto's option. They could also drop $10 million by buying out Cuddyer. I have a feeling they would be able to bring him back cheaper, if they desired. He seems loyal like that. Like a dog.
But overall there's no doubt they would have to be willing to increase payroll to make this happen. It's also the kind of move that could lead to them not being able to keep Jason Kubel or even Liriano down the line, which is clearly not ideal. But don't you sometimes get sick of just fighting to make the playoffs, knowing odds are stacked heavily against them getting beyond the first round? Isn't it sometimes worth sacrificing something in the future for a real, legitimate chance to win now? This is the year they have the lineup to do it, and you know next year they'll be going back to more slap-hitters, so make the gamble now. DO IT.
Looking at the overall portrait here, doesn't it make sense to acquire Haren? A Haren/Liriano/Pavano rotation + whoever emerges from the rest of the mess playoff rotation would be enough to make them a World Series contender, assuming they end up winning the division after making this move (which they would be the favorite to do). Additionally, it's not like this is just a rental player. Getting him would give them a Liriano/Pavano head of the rotation for at least a couple years, which is good enough to keep them at the top of the division contender list at the very least.
We've heard about the new stadium. We've heard about the sell-outs. We've heard about the extra money. We've heard about the commitment to winning. So let's do this. Let's go and get Danny Haren. Come on, Twins. Small Market is really just a state of mind.
Plus, to help out, if you make this trade I will immediately go out and buy a Twins' Dan Haren jersey (ok, more like one of those t-shirt things with the player name on it.)
Deal?
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