Notes on Baseball, and a Little Hoops

It's the middle of winter, I have a billion days off, and there's lots going on that I haven't gotten to.  So here's some of that.

-  First off, the Torii Hunter signing.  Ugh.  Hate it.  Absolutely hate it and it was made for all the wrong reasons.  So all the moms and wives and sisters and casual fans will say "Yay!  I love Torii Hunter I'm so glad he's back let's go to a game!" even though the team sucks.  And they're going to suck this year.  The Twins are not going to contend for anything until 2016 at the earliest, and Hunter will be gone so it's a completely pointless signing.

A bridge to 2016 you say?  No.  He's not good anymore.  He's just not.  He's turned into a terrible fielder (not his fault, he's just old) and you can find a billion links to in depth studies, more than just advanced metrics, that prove it.  He hit the ball alright last year but he's been on a pretty steady downslope.  Sure, it's one year so it's pretty low risk, but that $10 million a year could have gone towards another pitcher (Jason Hammel signed for that) and those at bats need to be going towards any of the billion of question mark outfielders the Twins have.  Oswaldo Arcia and Aaron Hicks need as many ABs as possible so we can figure out what they are.  Even Jordan Schafer may have some future value.  Also.....wait......look at this 40-man roster.  Look at the outfielders.  There are no words.  Just horrible.

Ok so Hunter won't steal too many at-bats that he shouldn't, but they still could have used that $10 million better than on a marketing stunt.  The Santana and Hughes signings (hold on) showed that they were still going to spend beyond that $10 million, which was a big concern of mine at the time so maybe this isn't quite as bad as I thought.  Actually, now looking at everything, as a pure baseball move it's just fine.  I just hate the message, and I hate that they signed yet another washed up former Twin because he was a good guy when he was here (just not to the gays).  I guess I'm pretty fed up right now, especially watching the Padres (small market) and White Sox (division rival) go all in, right after Kansas City's go all-inedness paid off with a trip to the World Series.  I don't want to be patient any more.  Let's just move along.

-  More promising was the signing of Ervin Santana to a 4-year, $55 million deal.  I don't love it as much as some others, but Santana has been a pretty solid pitcher in four of the last five seasons, and although that one bad season was a disaster it's looking like more of a fluke than anything.  The $13-$14 million per year may be a bit of an overpay, but it's probably worth it to get a real major league pitcher, especially one who struck out north of 8 batters per 9 innings per last season (a stat which makes me wonder if the Twins had an aneurysm or something and missed the fact that he can actually miss bats).

Santana will be 35 by the end of the contract, which isn't ancient but is a little stomach turning, and who knows what kind of pitcher he'll be by then, but if the plan is to contend for the playoffs in 2016 he should be a key cog.  That's the hope anyway.  Both Santana and Hughes have some risk (hold on) so counting on them to be your front of the rotation guys is a little dicey, but it's a damn sight better than counting on Mike Pelfrey or Kevin Correia.  That may not be saying much, but hey, at least they're spending on potentially quality pitching.  Infinitely better than the Ricky Nolasco signing.

-  The Twins also signed Phil Hughes to an extension, wiping out the last two years of his current deal and extending him three more in what is essentially a 5 year, $58 million deal.  Although there's plenty of upside to the deal, since $11 million per will end up an absolute bargain if he can be the same pitcher he was last season, there are plenty of reasons to be nervous.  Five years is a long time, $58 million is a ton of money for a team like the Twins, and prior to last season Hughes was a complete train wreck.  I don't really understand why they felt the need to move now considering Hughes was under contract for two more seasons at a totally reasonable price.  Why not let him start the year on his existing deal and then, if he looks like the stud he was last season, extend him then instead of taking $58 million worth of risk on one season of proven production?

Then again, there isn't anything in his numbers that suggests last season was a fluke.  His BABIP was actually high, his FIP was almost a full run lower than his ERA, his K/BB ratio was an all-time record, and although his HR ratio probably dipped down below where it should be it should be offset by that high BABIP and his overall numbers should be around the same as last year.  That kind of season is #1 pitcher territory, and based on WAR and the current rate being paid per win (note:  I don't really know how this is calculated) Fangraphs estimates last season Hughes was worth around $30 million.  If he pitches anywhere near that well maybe it's harder to extend him or becomes significantly more expensive.  Hughes certainly cashed in on his great season, it's a matter of time to see who got fleeced.  I'm hoping for Hughes.

-  Another newly added Twin is J.R. Graham, a right-handed pitcher the Twins picked in the Rule 5 draft from the Atlanta Braves.  Graham was a fourth round pick out of college and rose as high as a top 100 prospect according to both Baseball America and Baseball Prospectus pre-2013 before arm issues derailed him.  Last season he pitched in 27 games at Double-A (starting 19) and put up 5.55 ERA and 1.47 WHIP which are yuck.  He was a stud at the lower levels before the injuries, so even with the ugly numbers last year he's probably worth taking the chance on.  As a Rule 5 draftee Graham has to stay on the Twins Major League roster all season or be offered back to the Braves.  Seeing as how Graham hasn't pitched above AA and did so poorly last year it's certainly a risk, but it worked for Ryan Pressly a couple of seasons ago.  Expect to see Graham in a lot of blow out, non high leverage innings.  Hopefully he does well.

-  Last baseball thing I want to mention is how great it is to see San Diego just say "Fuck it" and go for it big time.  They've constructed a completely new outfield of Matt Kemp, Justin Upton, and Wil Myers, acquired a new catcher in Derek Norris, and landed a young 3B in Will Middlebrooks.  Considering the Padres were a historically horrible offense last year (their team total over/under in Vegas was frequently 2.5) replacing over half the lineup is not a bad idea, and they were able to do it without trading away any of their top 3 blue chip prospects (though they traded pretty much everyone else in the minors away).  They also only had to ship out one of their starters, a team strength, and will go into next season with a mostly intact rotation.  Two other signees, Josh Johnson and Brandon Morrow, have flashed a ton of talent but neither has had much success staying healthy - perfect signings to fill that #5 slot, really.

Of course, any time you take this kind of risk you are inviting disaster in countless ways.  Kemp will be tasked with playing center field and by any metric or the eye test his body really isn't up to that any more.  Myers had a really bad sophomore season and the Rays essentially totally gave up on him with questions about his work ethic.  Norris is a big bat but is pretty horrendous defensively, and Middlebrooks has been underwhelming at best in his short career.  I couldn't find anything bad to say about Upton.

This is all pessimism of course, since I'm a Minnesota fan, and I think these are fantastic risks for a team in need of a shot in the arm and I'd love the Twins to pursue a similar course once they think they're close to being a contender.  They also now have an expendable Carlos Quentin, who can still hit the crap out of the ball when healthy - though he hasn't played more than 100 games since 2011 so who knows if he even can be healthy anymore.  If he can get through the first half of the season or so healthy and hitting, expect the Padres to aggressively move him to an American League team since he's basically a born DH.  It's a fun time to be a Padre fan.  I hate them.

-  Moving on to NCAA Hoops, uh, how good is Kentucky?  My goodness they just overwhelm teams.  The scary part is they're really winning with defense, because they have the most talent of anyone, they're incredibly athletic and tall (almost everyone who plays is 6-6 or bigger) and because they're so deep they can give total effort on the defensive end, knowing they won't have to conserve energy because they won't be playing heavy minutes.  And everyone is buying into the concept.  I'm really not interested in another Kentucky championship, but man I'm not sure how they don't end up winning.

Because they're so good defensively and so deep it's hard to see a team just jump up and beat them on a fluky night.  The only two teams I see who could beat them this year are Duke and Louisville.  Duke is nearly as deep and nearly as talented as Kentucky, so I could see them beating Kentucky if the Wildcats don't play their best game.  Louisville is super talented and can almost match Kentucky's athleticism, and they play a style that could work against the Wildcats if they can speed them up (and we might find out on Saturday).  Depressing?  Yes, but I mean, watch these guys.

-  Looks like the Gophers damn near dropped one to Furman tonight before rallying to win by 10.  That's definitely not good, but looking around the Big Ten avoiding the home loss to the crappy opponent seems to be a key this season.  I mean, Michigan lost to NJIT and Eastern Michigan, Michigan State lost to Texas Southern, Indiana lost to Eastern Washington, Northwestern lost to Central Michigan, Nebraska lost to Incarnate Word, Purdue lost to Gardner Webb and North Florida, and Rutgers lost to St. Francis and St. Peter's.  These are all horrible, horrible losses.  These aren't upsets, these are mega-upsets.  Avoiding this loss to Furman keeps the Gophers record intact, along with Wisconsin, Iowa, Maryland, Ohio State, Illinois, and Penn State (depending on how you feel about Charlotte).

I can't really write much about tonight's game because I didn't realize the game was on ESPN3 until late in the second half, but I did manage to catch the last ten minutes or so of game time and Furman could not miss.  Some of it is on the Gopher defense, yes, but the Paladins (for reals) hit a bunch of shots I'm willing to wager they don't usually knock down as well.  Every so often you run into a buzzsaw, not getting chopped down is a good thing.  As long as they don't come out and go down to the wire against Wilmington on Saturday you can pretty much just write this one off to a weird night - a weird night that didn't end up in a loss, a rarity in the B10 this year.

-  Lastly, fantasy football is stupid.

Week in Review - 1/28/2013

There isn't much here about the Gophers so if that's what you're looking for go look somewhere else (although I do bitch about Rodney Williams later).  Losing to a mediocre Badger team at Kohl Center doesn't really tell me much, other than reconfirming once again that this Gopher team isn't "elite", but this loss does nothing for me in terms of if this team is "pretty good" or "frustratingly mediocre as usual."  And nothing good can possibly happen next week (home games vs. Nebraska and Iowa) only disastrously bad things can happen outside of expected results, so we won't really know anything until the go to East Lansing and then have Illinois at home the following week.  It's a frustrating time to be a fan.  But what would life as a Gopher fan be without the frustration?  We're all such idiots.

WHO WAS AWESOME

1.  Miami Hurricanes.  Hey bromigos, there have been some great wins by teams this year but it's going to be tough for anybody to top Miami beating #1 Duke by 27 (and yes I know Duke didn't have Ryan Kelly because everyone keeps pointing out how Duke didn't have Ryan Kelly but can everyone just calm down about that for a minute because we're talking about Ryan freaking Kelly here).  I mean they just killed them.  At the ten minute mark of the first half Duke was up 14-13, which means Miami beat them 77-59 over the final 30 minutes.  This wasn't a fluke (don't forget Miami beat Michigan State earlier this year too) and Miami is now 6-0 in the conference and looking like a good bet to win the ACC for what I assume is the first time ever.  Best part of that game was Seth Curry shooting 0-10 from the floor, because I still can't shake my irrational hatred of Stephen Curry so naturally that carries over to Seth because you know, brothers and stuff.

2.  Kobe Bryant.  I think I mentioned this last week but I recently traded for Kobe in my fantasy league which of course means I no longer hate him and kind of like him now, so I fee like it's worth noting that in his last two games he's had 14 assists.  Not total, although frankly that would be kind of impressive for this black hole, but in each of the last two he's had 14 in each.  I mean, say what you want but 14 assists in a game is a freaking lot, and he's now done it two games in a row.  You know many players have ever had at least 14 assists in back-to-back games?  I don't know either, probably kind of a lot, actually, but for a me first glory boy hero ball gunslinging chucker like Kobe to do it must have been very difficult for him mentally.  And, the Lakers, are 2-0 in those games, which just goes to show you that when you have two maybe three other Hall of Famers on your team it does wonders for your squad's chances if you actually let them touch the ball and shoot and stuff.  Like I've always said.

3.  Baylor Bears.  There's a reason why Baylor was highly ranked by many including myself this year, and that's because even with Perry Jones, Quincy Acy, and Quincy Miller off to the NBA the machine Scott Drew has put in place still meant they were going to be immensely talented.  Sometimes they can put a game together like Monday against Oklahoma State, and even if the final margin was only 10 the game was never really in doubt.  Their back court (Pierre Jackson, Brady Heslip, A.J. Walton) is both experienced and talented, while the front court (Isaiah Austin, Cory Jefferson) is probably the most athletic in the country with Jefferson the total freak and Austin the unstoppable freshman who can dominate inside or hit the three and already has a turnaround fadeway jumper which truly a thing to behold from a 7-1 dude with a wingspan beyond that (kind of like KG but slightly more awkward).  Then on the bench you have Gary Franklin, Deuce Bello, and Rico Gathers who would all start for most teams.  That's why they handled Oklahoma State, won at Rupp against Kentucky, and stomped BYU this year.  Of course they're also a dumb team, so they've lost at Northwestern and dropped one at home to Charleston.  I'm telling you right now, bros - Baylor is ripe for a first round upset this year in the tournament.

4.  UCLA Bruins.   There is a reason I ranked UCLA the 6th best team in the NCAA going into this season and they were ranked 13th in the preseason polls - there is a lot of freaking talent here.  Early season struggles (one point home OT win over UC-Irvine, home loss to Cal Poly) dropped them out of the rankings and out of everyone's hearts and minds, but as things have come together they reeled off 10 straight wins before dropping a game last week to a good Oregon team, and now went into Tucson and knocked off 6th rated Arizona.  The early season issues shouldn't have been a surprise since the team is mostly made up of freshmen (Shabazz Muhammed, Jordan Adams, Kyle Anderson) and transfers (the Wear twins, Larry Drew), but now everything is looking good (they smoked Arizona) and Muhammed is starting to look like he could do the Carmelo Anthony thing and carry this team in March.  Of course, being a Ben Howland coached team they then went out an invalidated everything I just wrote by losing at Arizona State on Saturday, but I stand by this team anyway.  Kinda sorta.


WHO SUCKED

1.  Rodney Williams.   No, I'm not the idiot who is going to call Williams out for missing the tying free throw because the odds of him hitting two free throws in any situation are pretty long any way and even as a senior he's a kid who isn't a good shooter and who has been in very few high leverage situations like it - it was basically a given he wasn't going to make them both, particularly on the road.  No, I'm going to call out Williams because who in the baby jesus of the earth convinced him he's a jump shooter?  He's not a jump shooter.  He's a freak athlete who needs to get his ass in the paint because his jump shot resembles that of a high school wrestler.  I don't even want him taking open jumpers, let alone the nearly constant shit he's been jacking up the last two games which consists of him stopping the ball, making a jab step or two that doesn't really move the defender, and then rising up and clanging a jumper off some slight part of the rim like he plays for the god damn Illini.  Just because you have the ability to get your shot off whenever you want doesn't mean you should.  To paraphrase Dr. Ian Malcolm, "You were so preoccupied with whether or not you could, you didn't stop to think if you should."  Actually we should probably have Rodney sit down and watch Jurassic Park - the whole thing is a metaphor for his jump shot.  Or something like that.

2. Kentucky Wildcats.  Like when I wrote about the Lakers last week I'm not exactly breaking news here that Kentucky is struggling, but after watching them lose at Alabama it really reminded me that John Calipari is really not a good game coach, despite winning the title last year.  The talent Kentucky has this year is nearly as good as anything else Calipari has had in his career, but when your offensive game plan generally consists of just rolling the ball out every game, that talent also has to be smart - you need coach on the floor types to keep things moving in the right direction.  His best teams at Memphis had guys like Chris Douglas-Roberts and Derrick Rose, last year's champions had Anthony Davis and Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, and even back in the UMass days he had an incredible guard tandem in Carmelo Travieso and Edgar Padilla (I can't believe I didn't have to look those names up).  Without a "smart" player to direct the team, a coach who is an A+ recruiter and a D+ game coach, and a small talent dip from last year this Kentucky team is going nowhere this year.  Of course, next year they're probably going undefeated, so enjoy this now.

3.  Arizona Diamondbacks.  The D-Backs have a solid core and should be a good team again this year, but they've taken the "get rid of the guys the manager doesn't like" philosophy the Twins like so much to a whole different extreme.  Earlier this offseason they unloaded super prospect Trevor Bauer because he wouldn't adapt the workout schedule he's done his entire life to match what the D-Backs wanted and received a prospect in return whose upside is "great glove, no hit" and now they've shipped off Justin Upton because he and manager Kirk Gibson apparently don't get along.  Before trading Upton, however, they managed to kill all their leverage by making it clear they wanted him gone.  Actually first they got a pretty good haul from Seattle, but Upton has a limited no-trade clause and killed that so, desperate to have him gone, they sent him off to Atlanta for one year of a so-so third baseman (Martin Prado) who wants in the neighborhood of $12 million a year starting next season, a likely fifth starter someday (Randall Delgado), and three other minor leaguers of little consequence.  All that for a 25-year old who in four full seasons has had two monster years and two lesser years, which were both above average, by the way.  Just a silly way to do business.  We're actually lucky to have Gardy.  Ha ha just kidding.  Throw in the D-Backs trade of Chris Young to Oakland for another no hit/good field shortstop in Cliff Pennington and this offseason has just been bizarre for Arizona.

4.  Virginia Commonwealth Rams.   What incredible timing for the Rams to implode considering I just pimped them last week as a Final Four sleeper.   All they've done this week is have a seven point lead with 42 seconds left vs. Richmond and blow the game and then lose at home to LaSalle.  Now, neither Richmond or especially LaSalle are bad losses, but this isn't the way to prove me right and stuff. I still think they're a sleeper Final Four team what with their style of play since most teams don't ever go up against something like that, but both blowing a big lead against a mediocre opponent and losing a home game to another mediocre opponent kind of hurt the confidence level.  Actually, maybe this helps since they'll end up with a worse seed and then I will be the only one to pick them to the Final Four and all that sweet sweet NCAA Tournament Pool money will be mine all mine!  I'm a genius.


Lastly, the team in college basketball who hands down had the best week was Villanova.  They beat both Louisville and Syracuse, giving wins over two top-5 teams in the same week which is pretty much like holy shit.  The reasons I didn't list them in the "WHO WAS AWESOME" section are two-fold:  1) I hate them and 2) who gives a crap?  Those are two great wins and yeah their RPI is creeping into the mid-50s so it's possible they could play themselves into an at-large, but they already have seven losses and even if most of them are excusable losing to Providence and especially Columbia is not.  Also I don't even know if I can name a single player for Nova (is Jayvaughn Pinkston still there?) and I don't really feel like learning another team.  So sorry.

Plus I heard Scottie Reynolds has an armpit fetish and cries when he watches Lion King.

Baseball 1st Half in Review

In lieu of a week in review post, since baseball's first half officially has come to a close I figured I'd do a Baseball's First Half in Review sort of thing.  I'm going to avoid talking about some of the more obvious things like the breakout first halves of Mike Trout and Bryce Harper, the success of the Nationals in general, R.A. Dickey's sudden change to one of the best pitchers in baseball, or Tim Lincecum's fall of a cliff.  I'm also going to avoid spotlighting obvious things anyone could have predicted coming into the season like Stephen Strasburg being unhittable, Joey Votto being a pimp daddy, or Nick Blackburn regularly getting lit up like a Christmas tree or a Portland hippie.  I'm also not writing any Twins stuff in this because I've covered them plenty, especially the Twins' two biggest success stories this year in Ben Revere and Trevor Plouffe, so if you don't care about the rest of the majors I feel your time would probably best be used doing something else.  Also Chris Sale is pretty awesome but I just wrote about him too so I'm not going to do it again.

So what did I find?  Stuff.  Will it be interesting?  READ ON.

WHO WAS AWESOME

1.  Gio Gonzalez.  Generally moving from the AL to the NL benefits pitchers quite a bit, and Gonzalez is the latest and perhaps greatest example of that after the A's traded him to Washington prior to this season.  He had always flashed significant potential, finishing in the top 10 in AL ERA twice, strikeouts twice, and HR/9 twice, but he also struggled with control, leading the league in walks in 2011 and finishing second in 2010.  He hasn't exactly stopped walking people, and still ranks 7th in the league, but he's cut down a bit and compliments that by striking out more people than ever (10.5 per nine ips).  He's giving up fewer homers and fewer hits, and has basically become an absolute monster and would be the ace of pretty much any staff that didn't also already have Stephen Strasburg on it.  So, nice trade Beane. 

HONORABLE MENTION (in this same type of category):  Brandon Morrow.

2.  Austin Jackson.  Jackson, who if you remember was the key component in the Curtis Granderson trade, had been heading towards a solid career as a less speedy Gary Pettis - decent defense, poor average, big strikeout totals, and very little power.  In fact, two years ago Jackson became the first player in MLB history to whiff 170+ times and hit less than 5 home runs, and the following season he because the first player with 180+ strikeouts and 10 or fewer home runs - not exactly a good trend.  Then there were reports over the offseason that Jackson was revamping his swing and unlike most of those kind of adjustments boy has this paid off with Jackson basically becoming a completely different player.   His K rate is down to a more manageable level (still high, but more like Josh Willingham than Adam Dunn), his walks are up to where he's actually a respectable leadoff hitter, and he's second in the AL in batting average at .332.  That's guaranteed to drop in the second half because his BABIP is a ridiculous .420, but his line drive rate is up and, after popping up 5% of the time last season he has yet to hit a single infield pop-up this year, one of just four players who hasn't this season - a key thing for a speedy player.  Simply put, he identified his weaknesses, worked to fix them, and it's worked.  It's actually really cool, and although it's not at the Jose Bautista revamped his swing and reinvented himself level, I still think he deserves a ton of credit.

HONORABLE MENTION:  Andrew McCutchen.

3.  James McDonald.  McDonald has always been a nondescript pitcher.  He was drafted in the 11th round by the Dodgers in 2002 and then traded to Pittsburgh in 2010 in the Octavio Dotel deal.  Whether with LA or the Pirates he's basically been the definition of league average.  Now, suddenly, he like, gets it.  His strikeouts are up, homers and walks are down, and he's holding opponents to a batting average under .200.  Sure he's getting a bit lucky, but he's also got a wicked curveball that, according to fangraphs pitch values metrics, ranks alongside such noted curvesmiths as Justin Verlander, A.J. Burnett, and Stephen Strasburg . Not too shabby.  He probably can't keep up at quite this pace, but for now he's first in the league in fewest hits allowed per nine and 3rd in ERA, and a big reason why the Pirates are actually in first place.  Well I suppose Andrew McCutchen is really the biggest reason, but McDonald is on that list there somewhere.  Near the top, too.  Like, way ahead of that Garrett Jones.

HONORABLE MENTION:  Jason Hammel.

4.  Carlos Ruiz.  If you're like me, you just assumed Carlos Ruiz was just some big dumb fat catcher who couldn't hit, and before this year you'd have been correct.  He always had a good batting eye, with more walks than strikeouts in his career and a career OBP nearly 100 points higher than his career batting average, but that batting average was just .265 coming into this season.  This year, however, he's been more aggressive at the plate and has stopped hitting so many flyballs and pop-ups, and it's resulted in a huge increase in average (hitting .350) and a monster increase in power (ISO of .237 over double last season's number),  and he's already surpassed last year's totals in HRs and RBI.  Like most jump-ups like this he's had quite a bit of luck on his side this year, but it doesn't look completely fluky, and Ruiz has taken himself from journeymen to all-star by being more aggressive.  Just think what that could do for Joe Mauer.  Just kidding, I think the real problem is the chicken arms.

HONORABLE MENTION:  Yadier Molina.

5.  Josh Reddick.  No matter what you think of Billy Beane, and there's no doubt he's a pretty divisive figure, one thing you have to give him credit for is realizing that saves are more a product of opportunity and environment than skill and constantly shipping out his closers for prospects.  He's traded Billy Koch, Billy Taylor, and Huston Street, and this offseason he traded Andrew Bailey to the Red Sox for a couple of minor league dorks and Reddick, who I'm guessing the Sox figured they didn't need with studs who never get hurt like Carl Crawford and Jacoby Welker running around in the outfield.  Well, Reddick has been absolutely mashing this year, to the tune of 20 homers (8th in the AL), 37 extra-base hits (10th), and an ISO that ranks 12th.  He'll never hit for a super high average, but he can probably be a Josh Willingham type for them, except he leads the team in average, homers, rbi, hits, OBP, doubles, runs, walks, slugging, and OPS and would lead most teams in triples with four but Jemile Weeks has five, and he's under team control until 2017.  So again, no matter what you think about Beane, this was a fucking slam dunk of a win on this trade, especially since Bailey hasn't pitched this year.  And if you're wondering how the A's can manage after shipping off their closer the guy currently manning the role, Ryan Cook, has a WHIP of 0.91, ERA of 1.46, and just made the all-star team.  In other words, PLEASE FOR THE LOVE OF GOD TRADE MATT ASSHOLE CAPPS.

HONORABLE MENTION:  Edwin Encarnacion.


WHO SUCKED

1.  Ricky Romero.  Through the first 3 years of his career Romero looked like a future star for the Blue Jays.  His ERA got beater in each of his three seasons, with his strikeouts rising and WHIP falling, culminating in a 10th place finish in Cy Young voting last season after going 15-11 with a 2.92 ERA.  Everything looked like he was ready to become a true ace this year.  But yeah, that didn't even come close to happening.  Rather than taking the next step forward he's taken two giant leaps back, and goes into the break with an ERA of 5.22, which is nearly double his ERA from last season, and for those who are true nerds his FIP and xFIP are significantly higher than last year as well.  And this isn't someone who started poorly and is trying to claw his way back, he's been bad throughout the year.  His first start of the season ended with his ERA at 7.20 and in his last six starts his ERA is over 8.00.  His Ks are down, his walks are way up, and he's getting laced around the park with a Line Drive rate far higher than either last year or his career number.  The Blue Jays needed dudes to really step up if they were going to legitimately compete in the AL East - Brandon Morrow and Edwin Encarnacion did, but Ricky Romero and his family is a dick.

DISHONORABLE MENTION:  Justin Masterson.

2.  Detroit Tigers.  I can't remember a team being so anointed as easy division champ getting off to such a horrible start, and seeing as we're halfway through the season this may be approaching trend rather than mirage territory.  And their studs are doing what they're supposed to; Cabrera and Fielder and hitting well, Austin Jackson (see above) is having a great season, and Justin Verlander has been just as good this year as last year when he won both the Cy Young and MVP awards.  It's just everyone else who has been horrible.  They actually rank middle of the pack in both Runs Scored and Runs Allowed in the AL, but mainly that's because of those good players doing good stuff.  The rest of the rotation has been terrible (although they'd all be aces on the Twins, fyi) with Scherzer unable to take the next step in his development and Fister unable to replicate his success at the end of last season, and they have the worst hitting 2b and RF stats in the league and are in the bottom five in LF and SS as well.  Plus, what everyone said would be their biggest issue - defense - has been.  They rank dead last in Ultimate Zone Rating in the majors.  All it really means is they're going to throw money and prospects around and pick up guys like Marco Scutaro and Shane Victorino and suddenly end up in great shape.  God I hate these guys.  But I'd still much rather see them win than the god damn White Sox.

DISHONORABLE MENTION:  Philadelphia Phillies.

3.  Justin Upton.  Upton is another guy who looked like he was about to become a super star after a monster 2011 for the D-Backs that landed him in 4th place in the MVP voting.  His average was up, his strikeouts were down, he was walking more, and his power had jumped through the roof.  After a 30/20 season, and based on his physical tools, it looked like Upton was going to fulfill the potential that his brother B.J. still hadn't.  Not so fast, because instead he completely lost all power and is once again striking out a ton.  He has just 7 home runs this year after 31 last season, and isn't hitting any doubles either.  His power numbers (specifically ISO), which was in Miguel Cabrera/Albert Pujols tier last season has dropped to where he's more in the Denard Span/Marco Scutaro grouping - gross.  He's gone from top 4 in the NL MVP to where he'd probably finish seventh or eighth on his own team.  Also I drafted him in the first round of our fantasy draft, and he's OPSing just slightly better than Drew Butera.  My bad, $nake.

DISHONORABLE MENTION:  Albert Pujols.

4.  Dan Haren.  It always boggles my mind when an established "star" pitcher suddenly runs of the rails and just gets lit up night after night.  Obviously Lincecum is the biggest example of this, but Haren is right there and right now both his WHIP and ERA would be career worsts.  He has had a little bit of bad luck but mostly he's just getting raked, particularly in the home run category where his 16 allowed are the 8th worst in the AL and almost match his total from last season of 20.  The slightly high BABIP and giant jump in HR/FB rate say this is a fluke, but he's also lost more than a mile per hour off his fastball from last season and at the same time is relying on it more often, and batters are chasing less often as well.  All this tells me I'd be very, very nervous right now if I was hooked into him long-term, but luckily for the Angels they can buy him out next year for 3.5 million if he continues to suck.  At which point somebody is going to end up giving him something like 5 years & $50 million and then we'll all be like hey look it's Barry Zito.

DISHONORABLE MENTION:  Jon Lester.

5.  Kansas City Royals.  I'm going to shoot myself in the face for buying into this crap and betting Snacks $50 they'd win a division title by 2014, because once again, shocker, the Royals suck ass and literally the only positive thing you can say about their season is at least they aren't the Twins (or Mariners, Cubs, Phillies, Astros, Padres, or Rockies).  When does all this talent come together?  Eric Hosmer is hitting .231, somehow Eric Gordon and Jeff Francoeur are still prominently involved, and supposed future building blocks like Lorenzo Cain and Johnny Giavotella are struggling to hit around the mendoza line when they aren't down in AAA.  And Humberto Quintero has 144 plate appearances for them for christ's sake, so they might want to get that position figured out as well.  And don't even get me started on the pitching, because good god.  The two guys with the most innings pitched this year, Luke Hochevar and Bruce Chen, are two of the most hittable pitchers in the history of baseball, and clown shoes like Luis Mendoza, Vin Mazzaro, and Everett Teaford have been fixtures in the rotation this year.  I almost feel stupid for buying that KC hat, because I hate feeling like I've been duped.  Prove me wrong, kids, prove me wrong.

DISHONORABLE MENTION:  Miami Marlins.


I'm sure I missed a billion things.  Sue me.