Though being one game over .500 isn't exactly blowing up the league, the Twins had extremely low expectations with a Vegas over/under of 70.5 wins, so being on pace to win something like 84 games represents a substantially better season than expected. One can't help but wonder how they got here, and if we can expect it to last and maybe see some semi-meaningful baseball in September again for the first time in what feels like forever.
The offense has been about what was expected: Team overall OPS is .675, last year it was .713. They're walking a little less and hitting with a little less power so far, but overall nothing out of the ordinary and they've averaged 4.56 runs per game this year compared to 4.41 last year so the offense is fine. It'd be nice for Kurt Suzuki and Kennys Vargas to start hitting, but the offense is fine. The defense has been atrocious as expected, so the improvement must have come from the pitching.
Sure enough, team ERA in 2015 is 4.07, down a half a run from 4.58 last year. Even better, starters' ERA is 4.38, which is 10th worst in the majors but a major upgrade from last year's 5.06 and 2013's 5.26, both dead last in the majors. Twins' relievers sport an ERA of 3.58, in line with 2014's 3.73 and 2013's 3.50, so any improvement has come from the starting pitching. Might as well look at all these guys and see who might actually be, like, good.
PHIL HUGHES: Hughes had a nearly impossible task trying to replicate both a career year and a historic walk/strikeout ratio, but he hasn't come close so far putting up numbers more in line with his Yankee days than last season. He's still controlling walks well and his strikeouts, though down a bit, are at a nice number, but he's getting killed by home runs, allowing 1.91 HRs per 9 innings after allowing just 0.69 last year. The good news is that he's allowing a home run on 15.1% of all his fly balls, which is likely an outlier since it would have been the second worst in the majors among starters with at least 150 innings pitched last season, and I'm pretty sure a Phil Hughes making about his half his starts at Target Field isn't going to end up at that number. He got really lucky about home runs last year (6.2% HR/FB), but his true ability probably lies somewhere in the middle. He probably won't be as good as last year, but he'll be better than he's been thus far.
KYLE GIBSON: Gibson's ERA is down almost a full run from last season, but there are some serious red flags here. His BABIP this year is just .267, below his career average and the league average, and his runners LOB% is 75.8%, which would be a top 30 mark most seasons - both significant indicators of luck. Alarmingly his K/9 has dropped to 2.79 (from 5.37 last year) which is dead last in the majors, and his walks have jumped by 1 per nine innings at the same time to 3.86, 14th worst in the league. He's also allowing a career worst 24% line drive rate and 83.6% contact rate. Seeing as he's shown nothing at all to support his ERA improvement from last season you're looking at a serious regression candidate unless he starts missing some bats.
MIKE PELFREY: The guy who nobody wanted in the rotation except for him and his family, and Pelfrey's put up a 2.63 ERA in five starts, but don't let that fool you - he's still terrible. BABIP is .259, LOB % is 83.3%, and HR/9 is just 0.66 - there's no way this keeps up. Those numbers last season would have ranked 18th, 1st, and 18th - does Pelfrey seem like a Top 20 pitcher to you? I will say this - his 56% ground ball rate is a very good thing and his hard hit ball percentage is just 18.1%, second in the league and probably fluky but not as definitely fluky as his other peripherals I'm not buying yet, but he's throwing a ton more split fingers and sliders and isn't relying as much on the fastball, and somehow he's managed to put more than 2 mph on his fast ball compared to last year. I don't believe in Pelfrey, but I expected this paragraph to be much worse. He may actually end up a decent number 4-5 starter.
TREVOR MAY: Probably the most important of these guys given his youth and potential, May's 4.15 ERA is decent but the good news is he's probably even better than that. His BABIP is high and his LOB % is low. He's putting up a respectable 6.9 K/9 and has reigned in his massive control problems from last year to average just 1.73 walks per nine. His HR numbers are a bit fluky and he should regress there a bit, but as long as he can control his walks he should be solid. We may have something here. Get it? Control his walks? May have something? That's high comedy right there.
TOMMY MILONE: You generally don't expect much from fifth pitchers, but Milone has been more like a seventh or eighth guy so far. Among Twins' pitchers with at least 20 innings pitched he ranks last in walk rate, homer rate, FIP, and xFIP, and his ERA is second worst at 4.76. Perhaps the worst part is that Milone's BABIP is a minuscule .243 and his LOB is over 80%, so he's actually been putting up these horrid stats while getting lucky. Yuck. His control is completely out of hand with 4.37 BB/9, nearly double his career average and he's just giving up a monstrous amount of home runs. Assuming he hasn't lost it he should be better than this but he's never going to be special. A guy with a 87 mph fastball has to be pretty sharp with control and pitch mix, so it certainly is possible he's lost it. Might even work better for the Twins if he has, so they can finally get Alex Meyer up here.
So, kind of a mixed bag. Some guys should be better than they've been, some worse. Probably the kind of thing you'd expect on a team that's right around .500. And hey, maybe they'll stay there. That'd be cool.
Showing posts with label Phil Hughes. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Phil Hughes. Show all posts
Wednesday, May 6, 2015
Thursday, April 2, 2015
Twins Preview - Throwers
I really don't want to do this. The Twins' pitching has been horrible for years, and even though it might be a little bit better it's still bad and it's also boring. I guess just dive right in? Yeah ok.
Opening day starter Phil Hughes should be the ace. The Twins signed him prior to last season on the cheap, hoping he'd be a better pitcher getting out of Yankee Stadium and boy did that pay off. He slashed his walks to an insane 0.69 per 9 innings which was the third lowest mark since 1920. 1920! And he somehow managed to do that while increasing his strikeouts and giving up half as many homers per fly ball. The homers number is maybe a little fluky, but moving from Yankee Stadium to Target Field can explain a lot of that too and it's balanced by a slightly higher than it should have been BABIP.
I mean Hughes was a really, really good pitcher last year. Imagine if the Twins weren't one of the two worst fielding teams in the league last year (I can't remember the other one). Hughes' FIP, which stands for Fielding Independent Pitching and attempts to measure a pitcher based solely on things he can control, was 2.65, almost a full run lower than his ERA (that means the Twins' fielding and Hughes' luck were both really, really bad). That number was fifth among qualified starters in all of baseball. He was fifth among starters in WAR. He won 16 games on a terrible team. He finished 7th in Cy Young voting. I mean geez. I didn't even realize just how good he was.
Honestly, and it scares me to say this a little, there's really no reason not to expect him to be the same pitcher this season. None of the improvements he made are unsustainable, even if a little regression should probably be expected because that's only natural after you set an all-time freaking record for K/Walk ratio, and there's actually some room for his luck to improve. Most of the projection systems like his walk rate to about double (to a still really good number in the low 1s) and his ERA/WHIP/FIP to go up accordingly, but what if he can come closer to replicating that 0.69? Man wow. I know his extension is a bit of a risk since it's pretty much based on one season, but if he can come close to that pitcher again it'll be an absolute bargain.
After Hughes come a couple vets in new Ervin Santana and last year's new Ricky Nolasco. The latter was an unmitigated disaster, as Nolasco cashed in $12 million to put up career worsts in nearly every category to the tune of a 5.38 ERA and 1.52 WHIP, all while failing to reach 200 innings pitched. Looking into the advanced stats there's not much of a reason for optimism, though he probably won't be worse. Even so, I took him with my first pick in a horrible players fantasy league, where you're rewarded for sucking. Santana is a good signing for a contending team who needs someone in the middle of their rotation, but he doesn't make much sense for a a team like the Twins, especially if it helped push Alex Meyer and Trevor May back down to AAA. I mean, he's been a pretty good pitcher in five of the last six seasons and he'll almost certainly help the team win more games this season, but he's pretty pointless unless he's still good when this team is contending. Which will be soon, right? Whatever. The team probably thought they were signing Johan Santana anyway.
Starter four is Kyle Gibson who has pretty much lost his top prospect shine but had a pretty successful second season. He improved from his (admittedly disastrous) rookie call-up two years ago by getting better in pretty much every metric you can find. His WAR was 2.1 last season, which puts him in line with guys like Chris Tillman and Henderson Alvarez in the pretty darn good pitcher area. I'd really like to see him up his K rate to somewhere closer to what he was putting up in the minors, but you can't really argue to much with a 2:1 ground ball to fly ball ratio. He's a solid #4 or a so-so #3 with potential for more if he can whiff more dudes. Keep an eye on that.
Winning the fifth starter competition over Meyer, May, and Mike Pelfrey (who is in the bullpen in a move I'm sure will work out) is your guy Tommy Milone, who came over in the Sam Fuld trade in what was a steal because Fuld is terrible. Not that Milone is anything particularly special, but he's made himself into a serviceable major league pitcher despite a fastball that doesn't break 87 miles per hour unless there's a stiff breeze behind him. But he mixes his pitches well and generally keeps the walks down, so he's not the worst option you could have as a fifth starter - though I promise you he'll have games where he's missing his spots where you'll believe he's pretty much the worst.
That's it for the starters, so now we're on to the bullpen which is going to be awful. Glen Perkins will close of course and he's pretty awesome. I have a tendency since he's a Minnesotan on a Minnesota team (and also I'm kind of a shithead sometimes) to assume he's being locally overrated but Perkins really is an elite closer. Since he took over the closer role permanently in 2013 he ranks 9th in saves (on a terrible team), 13th in K/9, 58th in ERA, and 22nd in FIP, and 25th in WHIP among all pitchers with at least 120 innings pitched - that's pretty damn good! And he has four more extremely affordable years on his contract (including this season). I kind of love the guy, but they should probably be listening at every trade deadline. Some team in win-now mode who is desperate for a closer might do something foolish, and he's a very valuable trade chip. For now, I'm just going to love watching him, and he's young enough he could be the closer when the team is in contention again (they will!), but you know, think about it.
I'm not saying shop him, not at all. I'm just saying if say, the Dodgers and their bottomless pit of money find themselves in a dogfight for the division they could come sniffing around. What if Kenley Jansen's injury festers and he's out all year, and terrible Brandon League and unproven Chris Hatcher aren't getting the job done? Between Perkins's skills, proven closer status, and super nice contract he'd be an attractive option. Maybe you can pry Kyle Seager or Julio Urias away. That would be pretty stupid on the Dodgers' end, but that doesn't mean it can't happen. They have a super deep farm system and they clearly want to win and they want to win now.
Casey Fien will be the main setup guy after another pretty good year even if he did slip a bit. It's a smidge disconcerting, however, that his K/9 dropped from 10.6 in 2013 to 7.3 in 2014. His velocity was actually up so there's a decent chance this was just a weird blip, but there was also a huge jump in contact rate. Keep an eye on this guy.
Brian Duensing was brought back for some reason and he'll be the sole non-Perkins lefty even though he's really quite terrible at pitching. He has been decent at getting lefties out in his career, but his inability to strike anyone out drives me crazy and he should never, ever pitch to right-handed batters. I really don't know why they tendered him other than continuity and familiarity which, as you know, the Twins value to an absurd degree. I'd rather just roll the dice on Caleb Thielbar. Granted in his two seasons he's shown reverse splits and if the Twins looked at that then bravo, but I guess I don't buy the front office is that sophisticated. There aren't really any other in house options for a lefty bullpen guy which is sad in and of itself, but there's always plenty of crappy lefty arms out there you could probably snag for a minor league deal. In the long run I suppose it doesn't matter, but giving $2.7 million to a terrible Duensing is kind of gross.
The rest of the bullpen is pretty much a mess. Tim Stauffer is a failed starter who's dealt with a couple of really significant injuries and he's probably the best of the group. Mike Pelfrey is absolutely terrible and should be released but instead the Twins are putting him in the pen which also pissed him off, so this is just a great situation all around. J.R. Graham pretty much made the team because he was a Rule 5 pick and has to be on the big league roster or be sent back to his original team, and I literally have no idea who Blaine Boyer is. This is not an impressive collection of arms, and to make it even worse the only guy in the entire bullpen who is under 30 is Graham. It's a group of old, failed pitchers. I prefer my bullpen made up of hard throwing young guys with at least one who isn't sure where the ball might be going all the time. That's fun. This is a garbage fire.
It's not like the team's going anywhere anyway. You could roll with 25-year old Michael Tonkin, 25-year old Stephen Pryor, 26-year old Lester Oliveros, 22-year old Nick Burdi, and 22-year old Jake Reed and be just as well off, if not better, and it would be a lot more fun. Or hell, throw Meyer and/or May into the pen to start like the way the Orioles have handled Kevin Gausman. I don't know. I'm not entirely certain this team has a coherent plan beyond "waiting for 2016 and hoping all the prospects are good" but whatever.
All in all, the starters could be decent this year, and will most likely be the best the Twins have had in a few years. The bullpen, however, is going to blow a lot of games.
Opening day starter Phil Hughes should be the ace. The Twins signed him prior to last season on the cheap, hoping he'd be a better pitcher getting out of Yankee Stadium and boy did that pay off. He slashed his walks to an insane 0.69 per 9 innings which was the third lowest mark since 1920. 1920! And he somehow managed to do that while increasing his strikeouts and giving up half as many homers per fly ball. The homers number is maybe a little fluky, but moving from Yankee Stadium to Target Field can explain a lot of that too and it's balanced by a slightly higher than it should have been BABIP.
I mean Hughes was a really, really good pitcher last year. Imagine if the Twins weren't one of the two worst fielding teams in the league last year (I can't remember the other one). Hughes' FIP, which stands for Fielding Independent Pitching and attempts to measure a pitcher based solely on things he can control, was 2.65, almost a full run lower than his ERA (that means the Twins' fielding and Hughes' luck were both really, really bad). That number was fifth among qualified starters in all of baseball. He was fifth among starters in WAR. He won 16 games on a terrible team. He finished 7th in Cy Young voting. I mean geez. I didn't even realize just how good he was.
Honestly, and it scares me to say this a little, there's really no reason not to expect him to be the same pitcher this season. None of the improvements he made are unsustainable, even if a little regression should probably be expected because that's only natural after you set an all-time freaking record for K/Walk ratio, and there's actually some room for his luck to improve. Most of the projection systems like his walk rate to about double (to a still really good number in the low 1s) and his ERA/WHIP/FIP to go up accordingly, but what if he can come closer to replicating that 0.69? Man wow. I know his extension is a bit of a risk since it's pretty much based on one season, but if he can come close to that pitcher again it'll be an absolute bargain.
After Hughes come a couple vets in new Ervin Santana and last year's new Ricky Nolasco. The latter was an unmitigated disaster, as Nolasco cashed in $12 million to put up career worsts in nearly every category to the tune of a 5.38 ERA and 1.52 WHIP, all while failing to reach 200 innings pitched. Looking into the advanced stats there's not much of a reason for optimism, though he probably won't be worse. Even so, I took him with my first pick in a horrible players fantasy league, where you're rewarded for sucking. Santana is a good signing for a contending team who needs someone in the middle of their rotation, but he doesn't make much sense for a a team like the Twins, especially if it helped push Alex Meyer and Trevor May back down to AAA. I mean, he's been a pretty good pitcher in five of the last six seasons and he'll almost certainly help the team win more games this season, but he's pretty pointless unless he's still good when this team is contending. Which will be soon, right? Whatever. The team probably thought they were signing Johan Santana anyway.
Starter four is Kyle Gibson who has pretty much lost his top prospect shine but had a pretty successful second season. He improved from his (admittedly disastrous) rookie call-up two years ago by getting better in pretty much every metric you can find. His WAR was 2.1 last season, which puts him in line with guys like Chris Tillman and Henderson Alvarez in the pretty darn good pitcher area. I'd really like to see him up his K rate to somewhere closer to what he was putting up in the minors, but you can't really argue to much with a 2:1 ground ball to fly ball ratio. He's a solid #4 or a so-so #3 with potential for more if he can whiff more dudes. Keep an eye on that.
Winning the fifth starter competition over Meyer, May, and Mike Pelfrey (who is in the bullpen in a move I'm sure will work out) is your guy Tommy Milone, who came over in the Sam Fuld trade in what was a steal because Fuld is terrible. Not that Milone is anything particularly special, but he's made himself into a serviceable major league pitcher despite a fastball that doesn't break 87 miles per hour unless there's a stiff breeze behind him. But he mixes his pitches well and generally keeps the walks down, so he's not the worst option you could have as a fifth starter - though I promise you he'll have games where he's missing his spots where you'll believe he's pretty much the worst.
That's it for the starters, so now we're on to the bullpen which is going to be awful. Glen Perkins will close of course and he's pretty awesome. I have a tendency since he's a Minnesotan on a Minnesota team (and also I'm kind of a shithead sometimes) to assume he's being locally overrated but Perkins really is an elite closer. Since he took over the closer role permanently in 2013 he ranks 9th in saves (on a terrible team), 13th in K/9, 58th in ERA, and 22nd in FIP, and 25th in WHIP among all pitchers with at least 120 innings pitched - that's pretty damn good! And he has four more extremely affordable years on his contract (including this season). I kind of love the guy, but they should probably be listening at every trade deadline. Some team in win-now mode who is desperate for a closer might do something foolish, and he's a very valuable trade chip. For now, I'm just going to love watching him, and he's young enough he could be the closer when the team is in contention again (they will!), but you know, think about it.
I'm not saying shop him, not at all. I'm just saying if say, the Dodgers and their bottomless pit of money find themselves in a dogfight for the division they could come sniffing around. What if Kenley Jansen's injury festers and he's out all year, and terrible Brandon League and unproven Chris Hatcher aren't getting the job done? Between Perkins's skills, proven closer status, and super nice contract he'd be an attractive option. Maybe you can pry Kyle Seager or Julio Urias away. That would be pretty stupid on the Dodgers' end, but that doesn't mean it can't happen. They have a super deep farm system and they clearly want to win and they want to win now.
Casey Fien will be the main setup guy after another pretty good year even if he did slip a bit. It's a smidge disconcerting, however, that his K/9 dropped from 10.6 in 2013 to 7.3 in 2014. His velocity was actually up so there's a decent chance this was just a weird blip, but there was also a huge jump in contact rate. Keep an eye on this guy.
Brian Duensing was brought back for some reason and he'll be the sole non-Perkins lefty even though he's really quite terrible at pitching. He has been decent at getting lefties out in his career, but his inability to strike anyone out drives me crazy and he should never, ever pitch to right-handed batters. I really don't know why they tendered him other than continuity and familiarity which, as you know, the Twins value to an absurd degree. I'd rather just roll the dice on Caleb Thielbar. Granted in his two seasons he's shown reverse splits and if the Twins looked at that then bravo, but I guess I don't buy the front office is that sophisticated. There aren't really any other in house options for a lefty bullpen guy which is sad in and of itself, but there's always plenty of crappy lefty arms out there you could probably snag for a minor league deal. In the long run I suppose it doesn't matter, but giving $2.7 million to a terrible Duensing is kind of gross.
The rest of the bullpen is pretty much a mess. Tim Stauffer is a failed starter who's dealt with a couple of really significant injuries and he's probably the best of the group. Mike Pelfrey is absolutely terrible and should be released but instead the Twins are putting him in the pen which also pissed him off, so this is just a great situation all around. J.R. Graham pretty much made the team because he was a Rule 5 pick and has to be on the big league roster or be sent back to his original team, and I literally have no idea who Blaine Boyer is. This is not an impressive collection of arms, and to make it even worse the only guy in the entire bullpen who is under 30 is Graham. It's a group of old, failed pitchers. I prefer my bullpen made up of hard throwing young guys with at least one who isn't sure where the ball might be going all the time. That's fun. This is a garbage fire.
It's not like the team's going anywhere anyway. You could roll with 25-year old Michael Tonkin, 25-year old Stephen Pryor, 26-year old Lester Oliveros, 22-year old Nick Burdi, and 22-year old Jake Reed and be just as well off, if not better, and it would be a lot more fun. Or hell, throw Meyer and/or May into the pen to start like the way the Orioles have handled Kevin Gausman. I don't know. I'm not entirely certain this team has a coherent plan beyond "waiting for 2016 and hoping all the prospects are good" but whatever.
All in all, the starters could be decent this year, and will most likely be the best the Twins have had in a few years. The bullpen, however, is going to blow a lot of games.
Monday, December 22, 2014
Notes on Baseball, and a Little Hoops
It's the middle of winter, I have a billion days off, and there's lots going on that I haven't gotten to. So here's some of that.
- First off, the Torii Hunter signing. Ugh. Hate it. Absolutely hate it and it was made for all the wrong reasons. So all the moms and wives and sisters and casual fans will say "Yay! I love Torii Hunter I'm so glad he's back let's go to a game!" even though the team sucks. And they're going to suck this year. The Twins are not going to contend for anything until 2016 at the earliest, and Hunter will be gone so it's a completely pointless signing.
A bridge to 2016 you say? No. He's not good anymore. He's just not. He's turned into a terrible fielder (not his fault, he's just old) and you can find a billion links to in depth studies, more than just advanced metrics, that prove it. He hit the ball alright last year but he's been on a pretty steady downslope. Sure, it's one year so it's pretty low risk, but that $10 million a year could have gone towards another pitcher (Jason Hammel signed for that) and those at bats need to be going towards any of the billion of question mark outfielders the Twins have. Oswaldo Arcia and Aaron Hicks need as many ABs as possible so we can figure out what they are. Even Jordan Schafer may have some future value. Also.....wait......look at this 40-man roster. Look at the outfielders. There are no words. Just horrible.
Ok so Hunter won't steal too many at-bats that he shouldn't, but they still could have used that $10 million better than on a marketing stunt. The Santana and Hughes signings (hold on) showed that they were still going to spend beyond that $10 million, which was a big concern of mine at the time so maybe this isn't quite as bad as I thought. Actually, now looking at everything, as a pure baseball move it's just fine. I just hate the message, and I hate that they signed yet another washed up former Twin because he was a good guy when he was here (just not to the gays). I guess I'm pretty fed up right now, especially watching the Padres (small market) and White Sox (division rival) go all in, right after Kansas City's go all-inedness paid off with a trip to the World Series. I don't want to be patient any more. Let's just move along.
- More promising was the signing of Ervin Santana to a 4-year, $55 million deal. I don't love it as much as some others, but Santana has been a pretty solid pitcher in four of the last five seasons, and although that one bad season was a disaster it's looking like more of a fluke than anything. The $13-$14 million per year may be a bit of an overpay, but it's probably worth it to get a real major league pitcher, especially one who struck out north of 8 batters per 9 innings per last season (a stat which makes me wonder if the Twins had an aneurysm or something and missed the fact that he can actually miss bats).
Santana will be 35 by the end of the contract, which isn't ancient but is a little stomach turning, and who knows what kind of pitcher he'll be by then, but if the plan is to contend for the playoffs in 2016 he should be a key cog. That's the hope anyway. Both Santana and Hughes have some risk (hold on) so counting on them to be your front of the rotation guys is a little dicey, but it's a damn sight better than counting on Mike Pelfrey or Kevin Correia. That may not be saying much, but hey, at least they're spending on potentially quality pitching. Infinitely better than the Ricky Nolasco signing.
- The Twins also signed Phil Hughes to an extension, wiping out the last two years of his current deal and extending him three more in what is essentially a 5 year, $58 million deal. Although there's plenty of upside to the deal, since $11 million per will end up an absolute bargain if he can be the same pitcher he was last season, there are plenty of reasons to be nervous. Five years is a long time, $58 million is a ton of money for a team like the Twins, and prior to last season Hughes was a complete train wreck. I don't really understand why they felt the need to move now considering Hughes was under contract for two more seasons at a totally reasonable price. Why not let him start the year on his existing deal and then, if he looks like the stud he was last season, extend him then instead of taking $58 million worth of risk on one season of proven production?
Then again, there isn't anything in his numbers that suggests last season was a fluke. His BABIP was actually high, his FIP was almost a full run lower than his ERA, his K/BB ratio was an all-time record, and although his HR ratio probably dipped down below where it should be it should be offset by that high BABIP and his overall numbers should be around the same as last year. That kind of season is #1 pitcher territory, and based on WAR and the current rate being paid per win (note: I don't really know how this is calculated) Fangraphs estimates last season Hughes was worth around $30 million. If he pitches anywhere near that well maybe it's harder to extend him or becomes significantly more expensive. Hughes certainly cashed in on his great season, it's a matter of time to see who got fleeced. I'm hoping for Hughes.
- Another newly added Twin is J.R. Graham, a right-handed pitcher the Twins picked in the Rule 5 draft from the Atlanta Braves. Graham was a fourth round pick out of college and rose as high as a top 100 prospect according to both Baseball America and Baseball Prospectus pre-2013 before arm issues derailed him. Last season he pitched in 27 games at Double-A (starting 19) and put up 5.55 ERA and 1.47 WHIP which are yuck. He was a stud at the lower levels before the injuries, so even with the ugly numbers last year he's probably worth taking the chance on. As a Rule 5 draftee Graham has to stay on the Twins Major League roster all season or be offered back to the Braves. Seeing as how Graham hasn't pitched above AA and did so poorly last year it's certainly a risk, but it worked for Ryan Pressly a couple of seasons ago. Expect to see Graham in a lot of blow out, non high leverage innings. Hopefully he does well.
- Last baseball thing I want to mention is how great it is to see San Diego just say "Fuck it" and go for it big time. They've constructed a completely new outfield of Matt Kemp, Justin Upton, and Wil Myers, acquired a new catcher in Derek Norris, and landed a young 3B in Will Middlebrooks. Considering the Padres were a historically horrible offense last year (their team total over/under in Vegas was frequently 2.5) replacing over half the lineup is not a bad idea, and they were able to do it without trading away any of their top 3 blue chip prospects (though they traded pretty much everyone else in the minors away). They also only had to ship out one of their starters, a team strength, and will go into next season with a mostly intact rotation. Two other signees, Josh Johnson and Brandon Morrow, have flashed a ton of talent but neither has had much success staying healthy - perfect signings to fill that #5 slot, really.
Of course, any time you take this kind of risk you are inviting disaster in countless ways. Kemp will be tasked with playing center field and by any metric or the eye test his body really isn't up to that any more. Myers had a really bad sophomore season and the Rays essentially totally gave up on him with questions about his work ethic. Norris is a big bat but is pretty horrendous defensively, and Middlebrooks has been underwhelming at best in his short career. I couldn't find anything bad to say about Upton.
This is all pessimism of course, since I'm a Minnesota fan, and I think these are fantastic risks for a team in need of a shot in the arm and I'd love the Twins to pursue a similar course once they think they're close to being a contender. They also now have an expendable Carlos Quentin, who can still hit the crap out of the ball when healthy - though he hasn't played more than 100 games since 2011 so who knows if he even can be healthy anymore. If he can get through the first half of the season or so healthy and hitting, expect the Padres to aggressively move him to an American League team since he's basically a born DH. It's a fun time to be a Padre fan. I hate them.
- Moving on to NCAA Hoops, uh, how good is Kentucky? My goodness they just overwhelm teams. The scary part is they're really winning with defense, because they have the most talent of anyone, they're incredibly athletic and tall (almost everyone who plays is 6-6 or bigger) and because they're so deep they can give total effort on the defensive end, knowing they won't have to conserve energy because they won't be playing heavy minutes. And everyone is buying into the concept. I'm really not interested in another Kentucky championship, but man I'm not sure how they don't end up winning.
Because they're so good defensively and so deep it's hard to see a team just jump up and beat them on a fluky night. The only two teams I see who could beat them this year are Duke and Louisville. Duke is nearly as deep and nearly as talented as Kentucky, so I could see them beating Kentucky if the Wildcats don't play their best game. Louisville is super talented and can almost match Kentucky's athleticism, and they play a style that could work against the Wildcats if they can speed them up (and we might find out on Saturday). Depressing? Yes, but I mean, watch these guys.
- Looks like the Gophers damn near dropped one to Furman tonight before rallying to win by 10. That's definitely not good, but looking around the Big Ten avoiding the home loss to the crappy opponent seems to be a key this season. I mean, Michigan lost to NJIT and Eastern Michigan, Michigan State lost to Texas Southern, Indiana lost to Eastern Washington, Northwestern lost to Central Michigan, Nebraska lost to Incarnate Word, Purdue lost to Gardner Webb and North Florida, and Rutgers lost to St. Francis and St. Peter's. These are all horrible, horrible losses. These aren't upsets, these are mega-upsets. Avoiding this loss to Furman keeps the Gophers record intact, along with Wisconsin, Iowa, Maryland, Ohio State, Illinois, and Penn State (depending on how you feel about Charlotte).
I can't really write much about tonight's game because I didn't realize the game was on ESPN3 until late in the second half, but I did manage to catch the last ten minutes or so of game time and Furman could not miss. Some of it is on the Gopher defense, yes, but the Paladins (for reals) hit a bunch of shots I'm willing to wager they don't usually knock down as well. Every so often you run into a buzzsaw, not getting chopped down is a good thing. As long as they don't come out and go down to the wire against Wilmington on Saturday you can pretty much just write this one off to a weird night - a weird night that didn't end up in a loss, a rarity in the B10 this year.
- Lastly, fantasy football is stupid.
- First off, the Torii Hunter signing. Ugh. Hate it. Absolutely hate it and it was made for all the wrong reasons. So all the moms and wives and sisters and casual fans will say "Yay! I love Torii Hunter I'm so glad he's back let's go to a game!" even though the team sucks. And they're going to suck this year. The Twins are not going to contend for anything until 2016 at the earliest, and Hunter will be gone so it's a completely pointless signing.
A bridge to 2016 you say? No. He's not good anymore. He's just not. He's turned into a terrible fielder (not his fault, he's just old) and you can find a billion links to in depth studies, more than just advanced metrics, that prove it. He hit the ball alright last year but he's been on a pretty steady downslope. Sure, it's one year so it's pretty low risk, but that $10 million a year could have gone towards another pitcher (Jason Hammel signed for that) and those at bats need to be going towards any of the billion of question mark outfielders the Twins have. Oswaldo Arcia and Aaron Hicks need as many ABs as possible so we can figure out what they are. Even Jordan Schafer may have some future value. Also.....wait......look at this 40-man roster. Look at the outfielders. There are no words. Just horrible.
Ok so Hunter won't steal too many at-bats that he shouldn't, but they still could have used that $10 million better than on a marketing stunt. The Santana and Hughes signings (hold on) showed that they were still going to spend beyond that $10 million, which was a big concern of mine at the time so maybe this isn't quite as bad as I thought. Actually, now looking at everything, as a pure baseball move it's just fine. I just hate the message, and I hate that they signed yet another washed up former Twin because he was a good guy when he was here (just not to the gays). I guess I'm pretty fed up right now, especially watching the Padres (small market) and White Sox (division rival) go all in, right after Kansas City's go all-inedness paid off with a trip to the World Series. I don't want to be patient any more. Let's just move along.
- More promising was the signing of Ervin Santana to a 4-year, $55 million deal. I don't love it as much as some others, but Santana has been a pretty solid pitcher in four of the last five seasons, and although that one bad season was a disaster it's looking like more of a fluke than anything. The $13-$14 million per year may be a bit of an overpay, but it's probably worth it to get a real major league pitcher, especially one who struck out north of 8 batters per 9 innings per last season (a stat which makes me wonder if the Twins had an aneurysm or something and missed the fact that he can actually miss bats).
Santana will be 35 by the end of the contract, which isn't ancient but is a little stomach turning, and who knows what kind of pitcher he'll be by then, but if the plan is to contend for the playoffs in 2016 he should be a key cog. That's the hope anyway. Both Santana and Hughes have some risk (hold on) so counting on them to be your front of the rotation guys is a little dicey, but it's a damn sight better than counting on Mike Pelfrey or Kevin Correia. That may not be saying much, but hey, at least they're spending on potentially quality pitching. Infinitely better than the Ricky Nolasco signing.
- The Twins also signed Phil Hughes to an extension, wiping out the last two years of his current deal and extending him three more in what is essentially a 5 year, $58 million deal. Although there's plenty of upside to the deal, since $11 million per will end up an absolute bargain if he can be the same pitcher he was last season, there are plenty of reasons to be nervous. Five years is a long time, $58 million is a ton of money for a team like the Twins, and prior to last season Hughes was a complete train wreck. I don't really understand why they felt the need to move now considering Hughes was under contract for two more seasons at a totally reasonable price. Why not let him start the year on his existing deal and then, if he looks like the stud he was last season, extend him then instead of taking $58 million worth of risk on one season of proven production?
Then again, there isn't anything in his numbers that suggests last season was a fluke. His BABIP was actually high, his FIP was almost a full run lower than his ERA, his K/BB ratio was an all-time record, and although his HR ratio probably dipped down below where it should be it should be offset by that high BABIP and his overall numbers should be around the same as last year. That kind of season is #1 pitcher territory, and based on WAR and the current rate being paid per win (note: I don't really know how this is calculated) Fangraphs estimates last season Hughes was worth around $30 million. If he pitches anywhere near that well maybe it's harder to extend him or becomes significantly more expensive. Hughes certainly cashed in on his great season, it's a matter of time to see who got fleeced. I'm hoping for Hughes.
- Another newly added Twin is J.R. Graham, a right-handed pitcher the Twins picked in the Rule 5 draft from the Atlanta Braves. Graham was a fourth round pick out of college and rose as high as a top 100 prospect according to both Baseball America and Baseball Prospectus pre-2013 before arm issues derailed him. Last season he pitched in 27 games at Double-A (starting 19) and put up 5.55 ERA and 1.47 WHIP which are yuck. He was a stud at the lower levels before the injuries, so even with the ugly numbers last year he's probably worth taking the chance on. As a Rule 5 draftee Graham has to stay on the Twins Major League roster all season or be offered back to the Braves. Seeing as how Graham hasn't pitched above AA and did so poorly last year it's certainly a risk, but it worked for Ryan Pressly a couple of seasons ago. Expect to see Graham in a lot of blow out, non high leverage innings. Hopefully he does well.
- Last baseball thing I want to mention is how great it is to see San Diego just say "Fuck it" and go for it big time. They've constructed a completely new outfield of Matt Kemp, Justin Upton, and Wil Myers, acquired a new catcher in Derek Norris, and landed a young 3B in Will Middlebrooks. Considering the Padres were a historically horrible offense last year (their team total over/under in Vegas was frequently 2.5) replacing over half the lineup is not a bad idea, and they were able to do it without trading away any of their top 3 blue chip prospects (though they traded pretty much everyone else in the minors away). They also only had to ship out one of their starters, a team strength, and will go into next season with a mostly intact rotation. Two other signees, Josh Johnson and Brandon Morrow, have flashed a ton of talent but neither has had much success staying healthy - perfect signings to fill that #5 slot, really.
Of course, any time you take this kind of risk you are inviting disaster in countless ways. Kemp will be tasked with playing center field and by any metric or the eye test his body really isn't up to that any more. Myers had a really bad sophomore season and the Rays essentially totally gave up on him with questions about his work ethic. Norris is a big bat but is pretty horrendous defensively, and Middlebrooks has been underwhelming at best in his short career. I couldn't find anything bad to say about Upton.
This is all pessimism of course, since I'm a Minnesota fan, and I think these are fantastic risks for a team in need of a shot in the arm and I'd love the Twins to pursue a similar course once they think they're close to being a contender. They also now have an expendable Carlos Quentin, who can still hit the crap out of the ball when healthy - though he hasn't played more than 100 games since 2011 so who knows if he even can be healthy anymore. If he can get through the first half of the season or so healthy and hitting, expect the Padres to aggressively move him to an American League team since he's basically a born DH. It's a fun time to be a Padre fan. I hate them.
- Moving on to NCAA Hoops, uh, how good is Kentucky? My goodness they just overwhelm teams. The scary part is they're really winning with defense, because they have the most talent of anyone, they're incredibly athletic and tall (almost everyone who plays is 6-6 or bigger) and because they're so deep they can give total effort on the defensive end, knowing they won't have to conserve energy because they won't be playing heavy minutes. And everyone is buying into the concept. I'm really not interested in another Kentucky championship, but man I'm not sure how they don't end up winning.
Because they're so good defensively and so deep it's hard to see a team just jump up and beat them on a fluky night. The only two teams I see who could beat them this year are Duke and Louisville. Duke is nearly as deep and nearly as talented as Kentucky, so I could see them beating Kentucky if the Wildcats don't play their best game. Louisville is super talented and can almost match Kentucky's athleticism, and they play a style that could work against the Wildcats if they can speed them up (and we might find out on Saturday). Depressing? Yes, but I mean, watch these guys.
- Looks like the Gophers damn near dropped one to Furman tonight before rallying to win by 10. That's definitely not good, but looking around the Big Ten avoiding the home loss to the crappy opponent seems to be a key this season. I mean, Michigan lost to NJIT and Eastern Michigan, Michigan State lost to Texas Southern, Indiana lost to Eastern Washington, Northwestern lost to Central Michigan, Nebraska lost to Incarnate Word, Purdue lost to Gardner Webb and North Florida, and Rutgers lost to St. Francis and St. Peter's. These are all horrible, horrible losses. These aren't upsets, these are mega-upsets. Avoiding this loss to Furman keeps the Gophers record intact, along with Wisconsin, Iowa, Maryland, Ohio State, Illinois, and Penn State (depending on how you feel about Charlotte).
I can't really write much about tonight's game because I didn't realize the game was on ESPN3 until late in the second half, but I did manage to catch the last ten minutes or so of game time and Furman could not miss. Some of it is on the Gopher defense, yes, but the Paladins (for reals) hit a bunch of shots I'm willing to wager they don't usually knock down as well. Every so often you run into a buzzsaw, not getting chopped down is a good thing. As long as they don't come out and go down to the wire against Wilmington on Saturday you can pretty much just write this one off to a weird night - a weird night that didn't end up in a loss, a rarity in the B10 this year.
- Lastly, fantasy football is stupid.
Tuesday, July 8, 2014
Twins and the Trade Deadline
We're nearly at the all-star break, which means we're a fair way past the first half of the season but everyone's required to refer to it as the first half anyway. It's also a good time to look back on what has transpired thus far and what I hope to see in the 2nd half, mainly because that's what everyone does at the all-star break. The most exciting part of the second half for a non-contending team is the trade deadline, so here's what the Twins should be looking to do:
First off, the Twins are not contending for the Wild Card, so put that out of your silly little head right now. They are currently 9.5 out of the second Wild Card spot with six teams either ahead of tied with them. It's not happening, no matter how optimistic Dan Gladden wants you to be. In that case, the Twins need to be ready and willing to sell off anybody and everybody who isn't a clear part of their future plans. That means everybody outside of Joe Mauer (untradeable in any case), Brian Dozier, Danny Santana, Oswaldo Arcia, Kyle Gibson, and probably Eduardo Escobar (just in case he's actually good) should be available for the right trade, and yes I'm including Glen Perkins.
Perkins is an elite level closer - yes elite - who is having the unluckiest year of his career (career high BABIP and career low LOB%) and is still putting up good numbers including a career best K/9 and BB/9. Considering he'll make just about $17 million through 2017 with a team option for $6.5 mil in 2018, he's an extremely valuable commodity - assuming you can find a team who overvalues relief pitching. The Twins won't be a contender until at least 2016 in my opinion, so if you can get a monster offer for Perkins you have two more seasons to develop a new closer. The Tigers, Jays, Yankees, and Angels all rank in the bottom 10 in the majors in bullpen ERA and all have deep pockets and are known to make splashy moves when deemed necessary. It's probably worth making a phone call, or at least answering the phone.
The other player I'd consider tradeable, but only for a great offer is Phil Hughes. Not because I think he's suddenly become Cy Young, but because you do need to field a full rotation next season and with any luck they find a way to unload Ricky Nolasco and Kevin Correia for.......something. Hughes has looked rejuvenated this year, and there's enough behind his numbers to at least suggest this isn't a fluke. He's signed to a very affordable deal ($8m per) and is signed through 2016, so if the Twins hold on to him they'll have him through that first season where I'm hoping they're competing for a playoff spot (2016).
The only other guy I would even consider holding out and passing on trading if you don't get a really good offer is Trevor Plouffe. It's pretty clear who he is at this point - a .240ish hitter with good pop, decent plate discipline, and decent defense at 3B - not a monster asset but a pretty decent player. Considering he's under team control through 2017 and is making just $2.4m he's a pretty good value, so there's no reason to rush on him. That being said, with Miguel Sano theoretically on the way and hopefully entrenched at third by 2016, he's not a necessary cog so any above market trade offer should be jumped on.
Literally everyone else is eminently tradeable, although most either have an unwieldy contract (Nolasco) or are just plain old too crappy to be considered desirable by anyone (everyone else). Two guys who should hold enough value who absolutely need to be traded are Josh Willingham and Kurt Suzuki. Willingham is a free agent after this season and it's doubtful the Twins will resign him, so come trade deadline dangle him out there and take whatever the top offer is - there's absolutely zero reason for Willingham to finish the season on the Twins' roster.
Suzuki is a bit more complicated, given that he's having a career year, made the All-Star team, and seems so much like Gardy's kind of guy it's actually painful. On the other hand, he's on a one year deal and some of his numbers look pretty fluky. Suzuki could be an ideal fill-in for a contending team needing catching help, whether just for depth or because of an injury, and Suzuki has hit well enough this year that he could offer help at DH or simply pinch hitting as well. The Orioles lead the AL East but have very little at catcher now that they've lost Matt Wieters, while they're getting chased by Toronto who has gotten nothing this year from the position. The Dodgers are another potential trade partner considering Drew Butera leads all Dodger catchers in plate appearances this season.
In the bullpen there's probably some potential to move Jared Burton, Casey Fien, and Brian Duensing. Burton is putting up career worst numbers but should have enough of a track record to garner some interest from a pitching starved quasi-contender. He's on the hook for a $3.6m team option next year with a buyout of just $200k, so it's not like any team would be making a major investment to acquire him. Fien is putting up his third straight solid season and is under team control all the way through 2018 so I could see holding on to him - maybe he's the future closer if they get a overwhelming offer for Perkins and actually pull the trigger. Duensing has pretty much established who he is at this point, but his ERA is at his career low even if his peripherals aren't any better than usual and he's been very good against lefties in his career so he could draw some interest. Hopefully.
Simply put, the Twins aren't going anywhere for at least another season and they have enough trade chips here that they should make this next month pretty interesting - SHOULD. Willingham and Suzuki really should be traded and if the management likes them that much they'll have the opportunity to bring them back a la Rick Aguilera. At least one out of Burton and Duensing should be traded, and there are other guys who could draw interest including blockbuster potential with Perkins. It should be fun leading up to the trade deadline. Yet somehow I get the feeling it will be all anticipation with no pay-off. Again. At some point this organization needs to realize they aren't developing players like they used to, and get more aggressive with trades and free agency (to be fair we did see a little of this last offseason) in order to get back to being competitive. Or just keep missing the playoffs.
[EDIT: Just realized I somehow completely forgot Kendrys Morales. Absolutely needs to be traded. Hopefully he gets hot again.]
First off, the Twins are not contending for the Wild Card, so put that out of your silly little head right now. They are currently 9.5 out of the second Wild Card spot with six teams either ahead of tied with them. It's not happening, no matter how optimistic Dan Gladden wants you to be. In that case, the Twins need to be ready and willing to sell off anybody and everybody who isn't a clear part of their future plans. That means everybody outside of Joe Mauer (untradeable in any case), Brian Dozier, Danny Santana, Oswaldo Arcia, Kyle Gibson, and probably Eduardo Escobar (just in case he's actually good) should be available for the right trade, and yes I'm including Glen Perkins.
Perkins is an elite level closer - yes elite - who is having the unluckiest year of his career (career high BABIP and career low LOB%) and is still putting up good numbers including a career best K/9 and BB/9. Considering he'll make just about $17 million through 2017 with a team option for $6.5 mil in 2018, he's an extremely valuable commodity - assuming you can find a team who overvalues relief pitching. The Twins won't be a contender until at least 2016 in my opinion, so if you can get a monster offer for Perkins you have two more seasons to develop a new closer. The Tigers, Jays, Yankees, and Angels all rank in the bottom 10 in the majors in bullpen ERA and all have deep pockets and are known to make splashy moves when deemed necessary. It's probably worth making a phone call, or at least answering the phone.
The other player I'd consider tradeable, but only for a great offer is Phil Hughes. Not because I think he's suddenly become Cy Young, but because you do need to field a full rotation next season and with any luck they find a way to unload Ricky Nolasco and Kevin Correia for.......something. Hughes has looked rejuvenated this year, and there's enough behind his numbers to at least suggest this isn't a fluke. He's signed to a very affordable deal ($8m per) and is signed through 2016, so if the Twins hold on to him they'll have him through that first season where I'm hoping they're competing for a playoff spot (2016).
The only other guy I would even consider holding out and passing on trading if you don't get a really good offer is Trevor Plouffe. It's pretty clear who he is at this point - a .240ish hitter with good pop, decent plate discipline, and decent defense at 3B - not a monster asset but a pretty decent player. Considering he's under team control through 2017 and is making just $2.4m he's a pretty good value, so there's no reason to rush on him. That being said, with Miguel Sano theoretically on the way and hopefully entrenched at third by 2016, he's not a necessary cog so any above market trade offer should be jumped on.
Literally everyone else is eminently tradeable, although most either have an unwieldy contract (Nolasco) or are just plain old too crappy to be considered desirable by anyone (everyone else). Two guys who should hold enough value who absolutely need to be traded are Josh Willingham and Kurt Suzuki. Willingham is a free agent after this season and it's doubtful the Twins will resign him, so come trade deadline dangle him out there and take whatever the top offer is - there's absolutely zero reason for Willingham to finish the season on the Twins' roster.
Suzuki is a bit more complicated, given that he's having a career year, made the All-Star team, and seems so much like Gardy's kind of guy it's actually painful. On the other hand, he's on a one year deal and some of his numbers look pretty fluky. Suzuki could be an ideal fill-in for a contending team needing catching help, whether just for depth or because of an injury, and Suzuki has hit well enough this year that he could offer help at DH or simply pinch hitting as well. The Orioles lead the AL East but have very little at catcher now that they've lost Matt Wieters, while they're getting chased by Toronto who has gotten nothing this year from the position. The Dodgers are another potential trade partner considering Drew Butera leads all Dodger catchers in plate appearances this season.
In the bullpen there's probably some potential to move Jared Burton, Casey Fien, and Brian Duensing. Burton is putting up career worst numbers but should have enough of a track record to garner some interest from a pitching starved quasi-contender. He's on the hook for a $3.6m team option next year with a buyout of just $200k, so it's not like any team would be making a major investment to acquire him. Fien is putting up his third straight solid season and is under team control all the way through 2018 so I could see holding on to him - maybe he's the future closer if they get a overwhelming offer for Perkins and actually pull the trigger. Duensing has pretty much established who he is at this point, but his ERA is at his career low even if his peripherals aren't any better than usual and he's been very good against lefties in his career so he could draw some interest. Hopefully.
Simply put, the Twins aren't going anywhere for at least another season and they have enough trade chips here that they should make this next month pretty interesting - SHOULD. Willingham and Suzuki really should be traded and if the management likes them that much they'll have the opportunity to bring them back a la Rick Aguilera. At least one out of Burton and Duensing should be traded, and there are other guys who could draw interest including blockbuster potential with Perkins. It should be fun leading up to the trade deadline. Yet somehow I get the feeling it will be all anticipation with no pay-off. Again. At some point this organization needs to realize they aren't developing players like they used to, and get more aggressive with trades and free agency (to be fair we did see a little of this last offseason) in order to get back to being competitive. Or just keep missing the playoffs.
[EDIT: Just realized I somehow completely forgot Kendrys Morales. Absolutely needs to be traded. Hopefully he gets hot again.]
Wednesday, June 11, 2014
Twins Stuff
The reason I'm not posting as much this Twins' season is not because they suck. They are a far more interesting team this season than last and I'm actually enjoying this more than any season in a while. The reason I'm not posting as much is some combination of laziness and apathy and alcoholism. I'm not sure those last two seasons make all that much sense together but neither does your face so shut it. Anyway, here's a bunch of Twins thoughts. I'll try to make up for low quantity of posting with a sheer overwhelming number of words. Goal is 2,000. I've got some Andy Capp Hot Fries, some Jefferson's bourbon, and nothing better to do with my time right now. I can do this. I know it. Let us begin.
- Since reaching the age of reason I have purchased three Twins "jersey shirts." Not jerseys, because I'm not a weirdo, but those shirts with the name on number on them. I've had Denard Span, Jason Kubel, and Oswaldo Arcia. Granted the Arcia call was risky because he was in his rookie season and could have gone either way, but it's now starting to pay off because he's been white hot since getting recalled. He's just killing the ball, putting up an ISO of .250 which would put him just outside the Top 10 in the majors if he had enough at-bats. He's basically just decided to stop hitting groundballs because they're boring. Arcia only puts the ball on the ground 32% of the time (4th lowest in the majors) and smacks it into the air knowing that it's more exciting that way. He's still got a ways to go and it wouldn't kill him to learn the strikezone a little bit, but he's improved his fielding this year and is on his way to developing into a legit power hitter. Now just stop being hurt all the time. I'd like to be wearing my Arcia shirt for many more years. No flame outs please.
- This Twins signing of Kendrys Morales is weird. Not that they can't use him. The offense has started to teeter a bit after starting off hot and he's a career .280/.333/.480 hitter which gives him a career OPS+ of 120 - no doubt the guy's a big bat and he was 5th in the MVP voting in 2009. It's just for this team to pony up $7.5 million for a guy who is half-year rental and whose defensive "skills" are redundant with a bunch of other guys is so far out of character I had trouble believing the news when I read it. IF, and this is a giant IF, they're doing this to see if they can contend, and when they realize the Wild Card is a pipe dream this year they figure they'll flip him for a prospect at the deadline, then I'll tip my cap. That, however, is a decidedly un-Twins like move. Wait and see.
- The Twins draft, however, was more Twins-like simply because it was incredibly perplexing. The first pick was great - SS Nick Gordon - a toolsy high school shortstop with an excellent pedigree (Tom Gordon's son and Dee Gordon's brother) who was no doubt one of the best (potential) players in the draft. I even saw one writer call Gordon the best pick of the draft. The next pick was fine - RP Nick Burdi out of Louisville. Thought to be the best relief pitcher in the draft. I'm not a huge fan of taking relievers, but he's supposed to be the best, he's a college guy so his track to the bigs could be short, and it gives the Twins something to point to if they decide to deal Glen Perkins when his value is at its highest, something that needs to be explored. So ok, fine. But then it gets crazy.
Next they took a college reliever with control issues who doesn't have a secondary pitch. Then they went with a college reliever with control problems. Next up was a college reliever who was a complete failure when he was a starter. Then they took a college reliever who has already had Tommy John surgery and had a rib removed for something something words. Following that they went with some pitcher who MLB doesn't have a scouting report for so I can't bitch about anything, and then finished up their first 8 picks with another college reliever who led Missouri in both saves and home runs who moved into the rotation at the end of the season and could be a big league starter someday if he learns a change-up. So that's 1 position player and 7 relievers.
Does that strike anybody else as completely bizarre? Three of these guys are definite relievers with only Burdi sounding like a big league closer. I know relievers are important of course, but generally they're failed starters who have failed in the minor or major leagues, not already having failed in college, which is the case with two of their picks. I know that's a simplistic view, but I can't get over this drafting sequence. Taking college relievers and converting to starters is also dicey, but it sounds like that will likely be the Twins plan with four of these guys, all of whom either need to learn or master another pitch or two or need help with their command. Sounds to me like a bunch of guys who are going to be converted to pitch to contact.
I mean, I know the scouting team for the Twins knows a whole lot more than me, I'm not dumb or arrogant enough to suggest differently, it just seems really, really weird to me to use this many early picks and similar types of gambles. What about a high upside high school arm? How about mix in a position player somewhere? I don't know, maybe college relievers are the new market inefficiency and the Twins are playing their own version of Moneyball. Hey, after the Morales signing we may be off in all new territory here. I'm willing to give the benefit of the doubt, but I am less than confident that we'll look back on this draft and be like, oh damn that was sweet.
- He probably deserves his own post at this point after spinning another gem today, but how good has Phil Hughes been? If you want to know nothing else about Hughes this year, just know that he has 72 strikeouts versus 8 walks on the season. That 9-1 ratio is insane and it's really all you need to know that yes, this Phil Hughes cat is for real. That ratio is second in the majors behind only David Price and would be the best in any full season since Cliff Lee in 2010. Seriously impressive.
Hughes refining his control has not come at the expense of his getting pounded, which can sometimes happen when you're throwing more balls over the plate. His line drive/ground ball/fly ball splits are pretty much identical to his career norms, and as a result his BABIP is about where it's always been. His LOB % is right where it should be too, so it's unlikely luck is playing a major role here. One of Hughes's biggest issues has been home runs, and although his HRs allowed per 9 innings pitched has been slashed by nearly half off his 2012-2013 rate. He's done that because his HR/FB rate is drastically down at about half what it was from 2012-2013. Considering his ratio so far this year would put him in the top 6 last season he's probably due for some regression, but the combination of better command and control and the move to a more manageable Target Field vs. Yankee Stadium make an improvement here likely.
Advanced metrics (FIP ranks him 11th, XFIP 30th) say Hughes is a legit #1 pitcher (assuming we go with the theory that there are 30 true #1s, just some teams might have more than one). I'm not ready to go that far, not by a long shot, but something like a #2? That just might be.
- Danny Santana and Brian Dozier are staying hot, and perhaps we've got our keystone combo for the next five years or more sitting right in front of us. Since my post after Santana's call-up he's justified my probably overhype, batting .372/.407/.500, showing the power I hoped/questioned/doubted he'd have with 2 homers and 5 doubles so far for an ISO of .128 which isn't Troy Tulowitzki-like but would rank him in the top half of all MLB shortstops and his overall performance at the plate has been unreal with a weighted on-base average of .400, second in the majors at short. Of course Eduardo Escobar's breakout (more later) and Aaron Hicks's continued struggles have pushed Santana to center field, though the two positions are pretty much a wash as to offensive expectations (though it seems harder to find a good SS who can hit). Though Santana has been a meh shortstop so far, he's actually been an excellent center fielder which seems hard to believe considering how little time he spent in the outfield before this year. Ideally he'll get more time at short and field it credibly enough to play there full-time. More on this later.
Since my post on Dozier he's put up an OPS of .871 (would be a top 20 number for all positions over the entire season) with 3 homers and 6 doubles in 15 games. Simply put he's a power monster. I am absolutely in love with this guy. See my last post linked above and just the improvements and refinements he's made in his approach and how they've paid off - how can you not love him? He's sporting the #1 walk rate in the bigs among second basemen and the #4 OBP, #2 SLG, #2 wOBA, #1 ISO, and #2 OPS - that's an all-star. Of course he's fourth in AL balloting with no hope of closing the gap which means he'll get snubbed by some combination of Robinson Cano, Ian Kinsler, and Dustin Pedroia because the Twins will get one rep and it'll be Glen Perkins, but he really should make it - he's that good. Big, big fan and if I'm right, and I usually am, he should get plenty of other chances.
- Ok so Escobar. Total breakout season. OPS by year: .571, .537, .628, and .790 this year. The interesting notes are the natural type progression towards a breakout and that he's already within 10 of his career high in plate appearances so he's got a lot of that whole "never had a chance" thing to him. The question is, does this pass the smell test and Escobar is the kind of hitter who ranks , or is he a fraud? In the latter case that's awesome! Suddenly the Twins have hitters to build around in Dozier, Escobar, Santana, Arcia (hopefully) and maybe Trevor Plouffe (I may be too tired to get to him). Great. But if he's a fraud it might be even better as long as the Twins recognize it (I know but let's stick with the new Moneyball thing - for me). In that case you capitalize on his success and flip him at the trade deadline, move Santana back to your SS of the future (he's going to be moved somewhere once Byron Buxton arrives anyway) and we move on. So let's investigate like Scooby Doo.
First thing to check is always BABIP, and Escobar is at .383 this year against a career number of .315. Yikes. Bad start for the "he's for realsies" crowd. That number is fourth in the majors. Hard to believe it's real, but let's check line drive rate. 27.3%! That's good! That's 7th best in the majors and a nice improvement over last season! Even better is that those extra percentage points towards line drives are coming from fly balls, which for a non home run hitter like Escobar is a move in the right direction. Ok, so more liners, great. Any reason for this?
Well his walk rate is still horrible and his K rate is up a little - neither of which say fluke but neither of which suggest growth either. What does suggest some growth is making more contact (and clearly better contact) on balls he swings at in the strikezone. He's also swinging at more pitches outside the zone, but making less contact, which I'm struggling to interpret (thanks booze. and obama) but I choose to believe he's taking better swings instead of that weak crap where he used to basically swing just to make contact and hit a shitty ball (the slight uptick in K rate might be evidence of this). Though the nerd stats are kind of mixed bag of evidence and perhaps luck here, one thing that looks very good is that other than the change-up Escobar is hitting better against every type of pitch this year than in his career, including punishing fastballs.
So the jury is still out on Escobar, but I admit things look better than I thought they would. No matter what the case he still rates as one of the better defensive shortstops in the game and that has value either way. Escobar may be the most interesting case on the team, simply because if they decide to move him there's a pretty clear plan in place (if you believe in Santana like I do and if you don't you're probably a terrible person who roots for Europe in the World Cup). I'll be watching this one with much interest. Or some interest. At least a little interest.
- Since reaching the age of reason I have purchased three Twins "jersey shirts." Not jerseys, because I'm not a weirdo, but those shirts with the name on number on them. I've had Denard Span, Jason Kubel, and Oswaldo Arcia. Granted the Arcia call was risky because he was in his rookie season and could have gone either way, but it's now starting to pay off because he's been white hot since getting recalled. He's just killing the ball, putting up an ISO of .250 which would put him just outside the Top 10 in the majors if he had enough at-bats. He's basically just decided to stop hitting groundballs because they're boring. Arcia only puts the ball on the ground 32% of the time (4th lowest in the majors) and smacks it into the air knowing that it's more exciting that way. He's still got a ways to go and it wouldn't kill him to learn the strikezone a little bit, but he's improved his fielding this year and is on his way to developing into a legit power hitter. Now just stop being hurt all the time. I'd like to be wearing my Arcia shirt for many more years. No flame outs please.
- This Twins signing of Kendrys Morales is weird. Not that they can't use him. The offense has started to teeter a bit after starting off hot and he's a career .280/.333/.480 hitter which gives him a career OPS+ of 120 - no doubt the guy's a big bat and he was 5th in the MVP voting in 2009. It's just for this team to pony up $7.5 million for a guy who is half-year rental and whose defensive "skills" are redundant with a bunch of other guys is so far out of character I had trouble believing the news when I read it. IF, and this is a giant IF, they're doing this to see if they can contend, and when they realize the Wild Card is a pipe dream this year they figure they'll flip him for a prospect at the deadline, then I'll tip my cap. That, however, is a decidedly un-Twins like move. Wait and see.
- The Twins draft, however, was more Twins-like simply because it was incredibly perplexing. The first pick was great - SS Nick Gordon - a toolsy high school shortstop with an excellent pedigree (Tom Gordon's son and Dee Gordon's brother) who was no doubt one of the best (potential) players in the draft. I even saw one writer call Gordon the best pick of the draft. The next pick was fine - RP Nick Burdi out of Louisville. Thought to be the best relief pitcher in the draft. I'm not a huge fan of taking relievers, but he's supposed to be the best, he's a college guy so his track to the bigs could be short, and it gives the Twins something to point to if they decide to deal Glen Perkins when his value is at its highest, something that needs to be explored. So ok, fine. But then it gets crazy.
Next they took a college reliever with control issues who doesn't have a secondary pitch. Then they went with a college reliever with control problems. Next up was a college reliever who was a complete failure when he was a starter. Then they took a college reliever who has already had Tommy John surgery and had a rib removed for something something words. Following that they went with some pitcher who MLB doesn't have a scouting report for so I can't bitch about anything, and then finished up their first 8 picks with another college reliever who led Missouri in both saves and home runs who moved into the rotation at the end of the season and could be a big league starter someday if he learns a change-up. So that's 1 position player and 7 relievers.
Does that strike anybody else as completely bizarre? Three of these guys are definite relievers with only Burdi sounding like a big league closer. I know relievers are important of course, but generally they're failed starters who have failed in the minor or major leagues, not already having failed in college, which is the case with two of their picks. I know that's a simplistic view, but I can't get over this drafting sequence. Taking college relievers and converting to starters is also dicey, but it sounds like that will likely be the Twins plan with four of these guys, all of whom either need to learn or master another pitch or two or need help with their command. Sounds to me like a bunch of guys who are going to be converted to pitch to contact.
I mean, I know the scouting team for the Twins knows a whole lot more than me, I'm not dumb or arrogant enough to suggest differently, it just seems really, really weird to me to use this many early picks and similar types of gambles. What about a high upside high school arm? How about mix in a position player somewhere? I don't know, maybe college relievers are the new market inefficiency and the Twins are playing their own version of Moneyball. Hey, after the Morales signing we may be off in all new territory here. I'm willing to give the benefit of the doubt, but I am less than confident that we'll look back on this draft and be like, oh damn that was sweet.
- He probably deserves his own post at this point after spinning another gem today, but how good has Phil Hughes been? If you want to know nothing else about Hughes this year, just know that he has 72 strikeouts versus 8 walks on the season. That 9-1 ratio is insane and it's really all you need to know that yes, this Phil Hughes cat is for real. That ratio is second in the majors behind only David Price and would be the best in any full season since Cliff Lee in 2010. Seriously impressive.
Hughes refining his control has not come at the expense of his getting pounded, which can sometimes happen when you're throwing more balls over the plate. His line drive/ground ball/fly ball splits are pretty much identical to his career norms, and as a result his BABIP is about where it's always been. His LOB % is right where it should be too, so it's unlikely luck is playing a major role here. One of Hughes's biggest issues has been home runs, and although his HRs allowed per 9 innings pitched has been slashed by nearly half off his 2012-2013 rate. He's done that because his HR/FB rate is drastically down at about half what it was from 2012-2013. Considering his ratio so far this year would put him in the top 6 last season he's probably due for some regression, but the combination of better command and control and the move to a more manageable Target Field vs. Yankee Stadium make an improvement here likely.
Advanced metrics (FIP ranks him 11th, XFIP 30th) say Hughes is a legit #1 pitcher (assuming we go with the theory that there are 30 true #1s, just some teams might have more than one). I'm not ready to go that far, not by a long shot, but something like a #2? That just might be.
- Danny Santana and Brian Dozier are staying hot, and perhaps we've got our keystone combo for the next five years or more sitting right in front of us. Since my post after Santana's call-up he's justified my probably overhype, batting .372/.407/.500, showing the power I hoped/questioned/doubted he'd have with 2 homers and 5 doubles so far for an ISO of .128 which isn't Troy Tulowitzki-like but would rank him in the top half of all MLB shortstops and his overall performance at the plate has been unreal with a weighted on-base average of .400, second in the majors at short. Of course Eduardo Escobar's breakout (more later) and Aaron Hicks's continued struggles have pushed Santana to center field, though the two positions are pretty much a wash as to offensive expectations (though it seems harder to find a good SS who can hit). Though Santana has been a meh shortstop so far, he's actually been an excellent center fielder which seems hard to believe considering how little time he spent in the outfield before this year. Ideally he'll get more time at short and field it credibly enough to play there full-time. More on this later.
Since my post on Dozier he's put up an OPS of .871 (would be a top 20 number for all positions over the entire season) with 3 homers and 6 doubles in 15 games. Simply put he's a power monster. I am absolutely in love with this guy. See my last post linked above and just the improvements and refinements he's made in his approach and how they've paid off - how can you not love him? He's sporting the #1 walk rate in the bigs among second basemen and the #4 OBP, #2 SLG, #2 wOBA, #1 ISO, and #2 OPS - that's an all-star. Of course he's fourth in AL balloting with no hope of closing the gap which means he'll get snubbed by some combination of Robinson Cano, Ian Kinsler, and Dustin Pedroia because the Twins will get one rep and it'll be Glen Perkins, but he really should make it - he's that good. Big, big fan and if I'm right, and I usually am, he should get plenty of other chances.
- Ok so Escobar. Total breakout season. OPS by year: .571, .537, .628, and .790 this year. The interesting notes are the natural type progression towards a breakout and that he's already within 10 of his career high in plate appearances so he's got a lot of that whole "never had a chance" thing to him. The question is, does this pass the smell test and Escobar is the kind of hitter who ranks , or is he a fraud? In the latter case that's awesome! Suddenly the Twins have hitters to build around in Dozier, Escobar, Santana, Arcia (hopefully) and maybe Trevor Plouffe (I may be too tired to get to him). Great. But if he's a fraud it might be even better as long as the Twins recognize it (I know but let's stick with the new Moneyball thing - for me). In that case you capitalize on his success and flip him at the trade deadline, move Santana back to your SS of the future (he's going to be moved somewhere once Byron Buxton arrives anyway) and we move on. So let's investigate like Scooby Doo.
First thing to check is always BABIP, and Escobar is at .383 this year against a career number of .315. Yikes. Bad start for the "he's for realsies" crowd. That number is fourth in the majors. Hard to believe it's real, but let's check line drive rate. 27.3%! That's good! That's 7th best in the majors and a nice improvement over last season! Even better is that those extra percentage points towards line drives are coming from fly balls, which for a non home run hitter like Escobar is a move in the right direction. Ok, so more liners, great. Any reason for this?
Well his walk rate is still horrible and his K rate is up a little - neither of which say fluke but neither of which suggest growth either. What does suggest some growth is making more contact (and clearly better contact) on balls he swings at in the strikezone. He's also swinging at more pitches outside the zone, but making less contact, which I'm struggling to interpret (thanks booze. and obama) but I choose to believe he's taking better swings instead of that weak crap where he used to basically swing just to make contact and hit a shitty ball (the slight uptick in K rate might be evidence of this). Though the nerd stats are kind of mixed bag of evidence and perhaps luck here, one thing that looks very good is that other than the change-up Escobar is hitting better against every type of pitch this year than in his career, including punishing fastballs.
So the jury is still out on Escobar, but I admit things look better than I thought they would. No matter what the case he still rates as one of the better defensive shortstops in the game and that has value either way. Escobar may be the most interesting case on the team, simply because if they decide to move him there's a pretty clear plan in place (if you believe in Santana like I do and if you don't you're probably a terrible person who roots for Europe in the World Cup). I'll be watching this one with much interest. Or some interest. At least a little interest.
Monday, May 19, 2014
Monday Musings
I know, I'm a terrible blogger. But it's really not my fault. Gopher basketball is in a dead period for recruiting, so there's nothing to talk about there, and the Twins are sucking the life out of me once again on their way to another probably 90+ loss season. How depressing is it that they're at .500 at the quarter mark of the season, but it feels like they're overachieving on a massive level? It just feels like they're about to go on a 3-17 streak. Anyway, since I have a bye in softball tonight, might as well put the time to good use. I mean use. Here's some stuff:
- I suppose the biggest news locally is that Kevin Love has come out and said he won't sign an extension with the Wolves and plans to test free agency after next season - which means there's no chance in hell the Wolves end up signing him. It was somehow both completely expected and a huge stomach punch at the same time. Kahn really fucked us by not giving Love that fifth year (plus the whole out clause thing), and the only hope was that Flip could somehow trick him into staying. Looks like it didn't work, so it's time to shift into getting as much as the Wolves can for him. I would prefer it happen prior to this year's draft since it's so loaded, but Love wants to go to a contender and it's hard finding one of those with both young and promising players and draft picks, and assuming nobody will trade for him unless he agrees to sign a long term deal with them Love's going to need to be on board with his destination. Some possibilities:
- I suppose I may need to do a Phil Hughes breakdown at some point, given that he's been lights out in his last four games. Seriously, a 1.37 ERA, a WHIP under 1.00, an opponent's slash line of .230/.228/.300, and 20 Ks vs. 0 BBs in 26 innings is really impressive stuff. He'll throw again on Wednesday in San Diego, and if he throws another gem, which seems likely given both the opponent and the park, I'll put up a post looking at his results a little more in depth.
- Remember how I hit the trifecta in the Kentucky Derby and was going Sizzler? Well I hit it for the Preakness too. Same bet, same risk amount. Big difference, however, in payout. The Preakness had 10 horses, while the Derby had 19, so odds were significantly reduced already, and then the Preakness had 3 big favorites hit the first three spots while the Derby at least had one significant longshot sneak in there. So the Derby payout was $1,541. The Preakness payout? $38. No joke. Was quite the letdown, but at least I've hit two now so I'll be playing for my own Triple Crown in a couple weeks.
- Looks like Justin Morneau's skull seems to finally be ok seeing as he's off to a hell of a start. He's hitting .327, which ranks 5th in the NL, with 9 homers (6th) and 32 RBI (4th). Seriously once teammate Troy Tulowitzki finally gets hurt Morneau might be the front runner for MVP. His power is way up, with an ISO near his career high in his MVP year, and although you can at least partially credit Coors for that, Morneau deserves the credit for cutting his K rate nearly in half and getting back down to where it was in his prime years. He's being more aggressive, particularly at balls in the strike zone, and is hammering them pretty good. His HR/FB rate is probably unsustainable so the home runs will probably taper off a bit, but he's in line for a pretty damn good season. Here's a nerdy article talking about how he's one of the top players when it comes to hammering the ball compared to last season.
- Among major league starters the Twins' have three of the highest 15 WHIPS - #1 Kevin Correia at 1.68, #10 Ricky Nolasco at 1.53, and #15 Kyle Gibson at 1.47. That, of course, doesn't include Mike Pelfrey who got shut down with a fake injury with a WHIP of 1.99. I mean that's just like what? Doesn't something need to be done at this point? From the constant injuries that go from day-to-day to season ender without a trip to the DL, to the jettisoning of any talented player if they don't play "the Twins way", to this constant need to go back to the same shitty veterans like Matt Guerrier and Jason Bartlett just because they've been Twins before, to the in season roster mis-management that leads to not having a center fielder but having four shortstops this organization is a complete mess. I need to write a whole post on this before I find myself down the rabbit hole here. To sum up:
- I was going to try to hit on the Gophers recruiting targets for 2015, but holy hell are Richard Pitino and the boys busy. According to 247sports.com they have 26 offers out to 2015 unsigned players and I just really don't feel like going through all of that right now. There are various levels of interest from the recruits, so I'll just hit a couple of the highlights (all rankings from 247 industry composite number) -
PG Jarvis Johnson (Minneapolis, MN), #81 overall/#18 PG - A De La Salle kid and the first legitimate shot for Pitino to keep the border closed on the players he wants. At all but the top programs keeping the borders closed on your top talent is a good way to build a program, and a guy like Johnson is good enough to boost the Gophers without being so good he's got programs you can't say no to after him - although Michigan State did just get involved so gulp. The Gophers are considered a pretty big favorite over Wisconsin for his services, but the whole Sparty thing throws everything off. Pretty important recruit here.
SG Jimmy Whitt (Columbia, MO), #96 overall/23 SG - This guy is piling up offers left and right, and although Arkansas is considered the favorite I've seen his name pop up around the Gophers a couple of times and there are so many teams involved things are still pretty murky. One wrinkle is it looks like he digs Kansas but they haven't offered yet, so most likely once Kansas misses out on some of their top targets they'll move on to Whitt and he'll sign immediately even though he acted like he liked all these other schools because Kansas is jerks.
SF Danjel Purifoy (Centreville, AL), #43 overall/#10 SF - Worth noting as he's the highest rated player who is given "Warm" interest in the Gophers by 247, along with every SEC school and Maryland, Michigan, and Wichita. Yes, Kentucky has reportedly offered but I'm guessing he's a back burner type for them, just given Calipari's ability to grab top 10-ish recruits at every position every year. Purifoy should get you seriously excited given he's an absolutely insane athlete who can handle the ball. He'd come in and immediately start for the Gophers and he can score, defend, and rebound already. His jumper isn't very good right now but when nobody can stop your drive you can be a bit more patient with that. This guy, we want.
PF Alex Illikainen (Grand Rapids, MN), #65 overall, #17 PF - If you could say the Gophers have one traditional recruiting strength regardless of coach, it's been out state Minnesota kids. I'm trying to remember a non-city kid from the state who the Gophers wanted and didn't get and I can't think of one. The closest I can come is Cody Johnson who ended up at Iowa State but I don't think the Gophers really recruited him. I guess you could count J.P. Macura if you wanted but I meant more country kids, not places like Lakeville, and the whole coaching change thing makes it a crap shoot. In any case, the Gophers should be in decent shape for Illikainen, although the competition isn't from anyone who strikes particular fear into my heart (Cal, Creighton, Iowa State, and Indiana are the other schools who have offered and he's shown interest in). He's a perfect stretch four who can also run the floor well and finish in transition, so he not only is from Minnesota but he'd fit Pitino's system perfectly. He's pretty much a Gopher Hole wet dream, and in this case I can't blame them.
C Akolda Manyang (Duluth, MN), #1 overall JUCO, #1 overall JUCO C - Pulling kids from Junior College is always a crap shoot as their are some incredible success stories and some disasters and everything in between, but he's highly rated, he's seven feet tall, and he's at least got some other high majors after him (Oklahoma, Arizona State). I promise if things heat up I'll try to track down some kind of scouting or more info on him, but for now he's really tall and some people like him.
Honestly if Pitino got an all Minnesota class (with Manyang, Illikainen and Johnson) that would be a pretty good class and make those weirdos who want the team to be like, only Minnesota kids happy too. Two top 100 kids and the top Juco would be a nice step up for the program and a natural build, made all the easier by it being local kids. That being said, Pitino is so aggressive and he has so many offers out to so many top kids I'm hoping that after so many near misses last year he finally lands somebody that is like wow - #22 Allonzo Trier, #39 Eric Davis, #42 Jalen Adams, #21 Brandon Ingram, #6 Chieck Diallo, #27 Moustapha Diagne, and #16 Doral Moore are all in play to various degrees. Hopefully he gets one (or more).
- I suppose the biggest news locally is that Kevin Love has come out and said he won't sign an extension with the Wolves and plans to test free agency after next season - which means there's no chance in hell the Wolves end up signing him. It was somehow both completely expected and a huge stomach punch at the same time. Kahn really fucked us by not giving Love that fifth year (plus the whole out clause thing), and the only hope was that Flip could somehow trick him into staying. Looks like it didn't work, so it's time to shift into getting as much as the Wolves can for him. I would prefer it happen prior to this year's draft since it's so loaded, but Love wants to go to a contender and it's hard finding one of those with both young and promising players and draft picks, and assuming nobody will trade for him unless he agrees to sign a long term deal with them Love's going to need to be on board with his destination. Some possibilities:
- LAKERS: The long rumored destination given Love's ties to LA, this is going to be a tough one to make work. The Lakers have a ridiculous amount of money tied up in Kobe ($30m) and Gasol ($19m) and would almost certainly have to include Gasol to make the money work and that does the Wovles very little good. They also have basically zero interesting young players with the possible exception of Kendall Marshall. They do have the sixth slot in the lottery in this year's draft, but they've already traded their 2015 and 2017 first round picks, which means they can't trade 2016. No chance Love gets to the Lakers without a third team getting involved.
- CHICAGO: Taj Gibson and Jimmy Butler are a decent starting point to get a trade done, and the Bulls have #16 and #19 in this year's draft, and Chicago has 2015 first rounders from both Sacramento and Cleveland. Gibson, Butler, and four first round picks would normally be enough to get it done but both those 2015 picks have some weird protections on them that actually mean they're either going to be non-lottery picks or no picks at all. Probably the front-runner.
- GOLDEN STATE: The Warriors can offer the best package of players, giving either Harrison Barnes or Klay Thompson as the centerpiece and maybe including either David Lee or Andrew Bogut. They have zero draft picks to trade, however, having given up their 2014 and 2017 already. The Warriors would likely need to get a third team involved, but starting with Barnes or Thompson is a good jumping off point.
- BOSTON: I'm assuming the Wolves have no interest in Rondo, but Boston can still start with Jeff Green and Kelly Olynyk which is a decent enough start. More interestingly, the Celtics have the #5 spot in the lottery in 2014 and the #17 pick as well, along with three 2015 firsts, and two first in each of 2016, 2017, and 2018 (thanks Brooklyn!). I'm not sure if Boston's involved at all, and they're further from contention than anybody else on this list, but the combination of draft picks and the ability to use Rondo to entice a third team to throw some stuff in makes Boston the team I'd most like to see Love traded to (also it's nice to have traditions, and Minnesota stars going to Boston is a tradition as old as time).
- PHOENIX: The Suns have the last spot in the lottery this year and picks 18 and 27 as well, and will get the Wolves pick if it falls to #14. They also have the Lakers' 2015 first rounder. Assuming they won't give up Erik Bledsoe there isn't much here player wise, but I can already see the Wolves trying to talk fans into some combination of the two Morris twins and Archie Goodwin.
- KNICKS: They're going to come up because they're New York, but they have no chance of getting a trade done. Their only asset is Tim Hardaway, because they've completely traded away their next three drafts. The Knicks' only hope is that a trade doesn't get done and they can get him as a free agent.
Best case scenario is some of these teams and others get together and somehow the Wolves end up with a huge haul. Something like the Wolves get a bunch of the Celtics picks, and the Celtics ship Rondo to the Bulls who then throw an extra pick or Jimmy Butler or somebody the Wolves way. Of course, I've been a Minnesota fan for long enough to expect a terrible trade. They'll probably deal him straight up for Andrew Bogut.
- I suppose I may need to do a Phil Hughes breakdown at some point, given that he's been lights out in his last four games. Seriously, a 1.37 ERA, a WHIP under 1.00, an opponent's slash line of .230/.228/.300, and 20 Ks vs. 0 BBs in 26 innings is really impressive stuff. He'll throw again on Wednesday in San Diego, and if he throws another gem, which seems likely given both the opponent and the park, I'll put up a post looking at his results a little more in depth.
- Remember how I hit the trifecta in the Kentucky Derby and was going Sizzler? Well I hit it for the Preakness too. Same bet, same risk amount. Big difference, however, in payout. The Preakness had 10 horses, while the Derby had 19, so odds were significantly reduced already, and then the Preakness had 3 big favorites hit the first three spots while the Derby at least had one significant longshot sneak in there. So the Derby payout was $1,541. The Preakness payout? $38. No joke. Was quite the letdown, but at least I've hit two now so I'll be playing for my own Triple Crown in a couple weeks.
- Looks like Justin Morneau's skull seems to finally be ok seeing as he's off to a hell of a start. He's hitting .327, which ranks 5th in the NL, with 9 homers (6th) and 32 RBI (4th). Seriously once teammate Troy Tulowitzki finally gets hurt Morneau might be the front runner for MVP. His power is way up, with an ISO near his career high in his MVP year, and although you can at least partially credit Coors for that, Morneau deserves the credit for cutting his K rate nearly in half and getting back down to where it was in his prime years. He's being more aggressive, particularly at balls in the strike zone, and is hammering them pretty good. His HR/FB rate is probably unsustainable so the home runs will probably taper off a bit, but he's in line for a pretty damn good season. Here's a nerdy article talking about how he's one of the top players when it comes to hammering the ball compared to last season.
- Among major league starters the Twins' have three of the highest 15 WHIPS - #1 Kevin Correia at 1.68, #10 Ricky Nolasco at 1.53, and #15 Kyle Gibson at 1.47. That, of course, doesn't include Mike Pelfrey who got shut down with a fake injury with a WHIP of 1.99. I mean that's just like what? Doesn't something need to be done at this point? From the constant injuries that go from day-to-day to season ender without a trip to the DL, to the jettisoning of any talented player if they don't play "the Twins way", to this constant need to go back to the same shitty veterans like Matt Guerrier and Jason Bartlett just because they've been Twins before, to the in season roster mis-management that leads to not having a center fielder but having four shortstops this organization is a complete mess. I need to write a whole post on this before I find myself down the rabbit hole here. To sum up:
- I was going to try to hit on the Gophers recruiting targets for 2015, but holy hell are Richard Pitino and the boys busy. According to 247sports.com they have 26 offers out to 2015 unsigned players and I just really don't feel like going through all of that right now. There are various levels of interest from the recruits, so I'll just hit a couple of the highlights (all rankings from 247 industry composite number) -
PG Jarvis Johnson (Minneapolis, MN), #81 overall/#18 PG - A De La Salle kid and the first legitimate shot for Pitino to keep the border closed on the players he wants. At all but the top programs keeping the borders closed on your top talent is a good way to build a program, and a guy like Johnson is good enough to boost the Gophers without being so good he's got programs you can't say no to after him - although Michigan State did just get involved so gulp. The Gophers are considered a pretty big favorite over Wisconsin for his services, but the whole Sparty thing throws everything off. Pretty important recruit here.
SG Jimmy Whitt (Columbia, MO), #96 overall/23 SG - This guy is piling up offers left and right, and although Arkansas is considered the favorite I've seen his name pop up around the Gophers a couple of times and there are so many teams involved things are still pretty murky. One wrinkle is it looks like he digs Kansas but they haven't offered yet, so most likely once Kansas misses out on some of their top targets they'll move on to Whitt and he'll sign immediately even though he acted like he liked all these other schools because Kansas is jerks.
SF Danjel Purifoy (Centreville, AL), #43 overall/#10 SF - Worth noting as he's the highest rated player who is given "Warm" interest in the Gophers by 247, along with every SEC school and Maryland, Michigan, and Wichita. Yes, Kentucky has reportedly offered but I'm guessing he's a back burner type for them, just given Calipari's ability to grab top 10-ish recruits at every position every year. Purifoy should get you seriously excited given he's an absolutely insane athlete who can handle the ball. He'd come in and immediately start for the Gophers and he can score, defend, and rebound already. His jumper isn't very good right now but when nobody can stop your drive you can be a bit more patient with that. This guy, we want.
PF Alex Illikainen (Grand Rapids, MN), #65 overall, #17 PF - If you could say the Gophers have one traditional recruiting strength regardless of coach, it's been out state Minnesota kids. I'm trying to remember a non-city kid from the state who the Gophers wanted and didn't get and I can't think of one. The closest I can come is Cody Johnson who ended up at Iowa State but I don't think the Gophers really recruited him. I guess you could count J.P. Macura if you wanted but I meant more country kids, not places like Lakeville, and the whole coaching change thing makes it a crap shoot. In any case, the Gophers should be in decent shape for Illikainen, although the competition isn't from anyone who strikes particular fear into my heart (Cal, Creighton, Iowa State, and Indiana are the other schools who have offered and he's shown interest in). He's a perfect stretch four who can also run the floor well and finish in transition, so he not only is from Minnesota but he'd fit Pitino's system perfectly. He's pretty much a Gopher Hole wet dream, and in this case I can't blame them.
C Akolda Manyang (Duluth, MN), #1 overall JUCO, #1 overall JUCO C - Pulling kids from Junior College is always a crap shoot as their are some incredible success stories and some disasters and everything in between, but he's highly rated, he's seven feet tall, and he's at least got some other high majors after him (Oklahoma, Arizona State). I promise if things heat up I'll try to track down some kind of scouting or more info on him, but for now he's really tall and some people like him.
Honestly if Pitino got an all Minnesota class (with Manyang, Illikainen and Johnson) that would be a pretty good class and make those weirdos who want the team to be like, only Minnesota kids happy too. Two top 100 kids and the top Juco would be a nice step up for the program and a natural build, made all the easier by it being local kids. That being said, Pitino is so aggressive and he has so many offers out to so many top kids I'm hoping that after so many near misses last year he finally lands somebody that is like wow - #22 Allonzo Trier, #39 Eric Davis, #42 Jalen Adams, #21 Brandon Ingram, #6 Chieck Diallo, #27 Moustapha Diagne, and #16 Doral Moore are all in play to various degrees. Hopefully he gets one (or more).
Thursday, May 1, 2014
Thursday Thoughts
- So the "big" news of the day in Gopher land is that the Big 10/ACC Challenge match-ups were announced and the Gophers got screwed. No, it's not Florida State for the 12th time, but they ended up getting slated to go on the road to Wake Forest. Despite finishing 7th in the league, the Gophers get last season's 11th place Demon Deacons who are probably going to be even worse. At the same time, the 6th place Hawkeyes get North Carolina, and Illinois and Indiana, who both finished below the Gophers, get much more favorable match-ups in Miami and Pitt, and last place Purdue got a fun match-up in NC State. This is horseshit.
There are 14 Big Ten teams. There are 15 ACC teams. Should be pretty straight forward, although with the realignment I suppose they had some leeway to play with things, but this is bullshit. No chance in hell Purdue, 12th in the Big Ten, should get NC State, who finished tied for 7th. If things were fair, horrible shit box Virginia Tech sits out (not Notre Dame) and based on records you get:
Virginia vs. Michigan
Louisville vs. Wisconsin
Syracuse vs. Michigan State
Duke vs. Nebraska
UNC vs. Ohio State
Pitt vs. Iowa
Clemson vs. Maryland
NC State vs. Minnesota
FSU vs. Illinois
Miami vs. Indiana
Wake vs. Penn State
Georgia Tech vs. Northwestern
Notre Dame vs. Purdue
BC vs. Rutgers
Way better and much more fair. Fucking NCAA Fascist bastards. Wake sucks, and they might even be worse next year. One of their top bench guys is transferring, and they're losing two starters. It's probably not all bad because their two leading scorers are back and they've got some decent young players, but I'm crabby so I'm bitching because the Gophers clearly got screwed because they're looked at as a bottom tier Big Ten program. Maybe they are but shit, you don't have to out of your way to fucking remind me. I need a drink.
- Going with Knob Creek.
- A little more news that might be of interest to Gopher fans is that Naadir Tharpe is transferring from Kansas. You may remember Tharpe from blogs such as this one because at one point he was ranked #90 overall and the #20 point guard in the country and all things pointed to him being a Gopher. If you don't feel like reading back, Tharpe had a two school list of Minnesota and Rutgers and then Rutgers signed Myles Mack so he canceled his official to Rutgers and the Gophers were in the driver's seat. Then Josiah Turner signed with Arizona (which did not work out well - DUI, kicked off team, transfer, reneg on transfer enter NBA draft, not drafted) which meant Kansas didn't have a point guard in their incoming class so they called Tharpe and about five minutes later, without even a visit, he was a Jayhawk. Once again, I don't need to be reminded constantly how the Gopher program ranks nationally. Thanks again, Tum Tum Nairn (who did almost the same thing).
Now, after 3 so so years in which he's made pretty good progress each year (1ppg/1apg to 6ppg/3apg to 9ppg/5apg) he's out. Kansas is fairly loaded at guard, and Tharpe actually lost his starting spot for a few games, but Tharpe is transferring to be closer to his daughter in Massachusetts (I think) who has been having some health issues. I would assume BC, UMass, and any of those Rhode Island schools are in play, and who knows, maybe UCONN. This is a pretty clear case of somebody who deserves a hardship waiver to be immediately eligible. So he's probably 50/50. The NCAA is neat.
- It's been awfully hard to keep up with the Twins this year considering they never seem to play, when they do it's almost always day games, my vpn trick to make mlb.com think I'm in California so I can watch their games on my computer has stopped working, and the pitching staff is once again horrible. Who could have possibly predicted that trying to upgrade the starters by signing two mediocre or worse starters and resigning a terrible one wouldn't have worked?
The team's starters post an ERA of 6.08, a WHIP of 1.64, a FIP of 4.74, and a xFIP of 4.95, numbers that are second worst, worst, second worst, and worst in the majors and this was coming into the day not even accounting for Pelfrey getting destroyed. Every single one of those numbers is worse than last year. Look at this rotation (ERA/FIP/xFIP/WHIP):
They're clawing around .500 thanks to an offense that has been putting up a shocking amount of runs ranking fifth in the majors, but man does that ever feel like fool's gold. Second in the majors in walks (after finishing 7th last season) should hold up and the team likely will keep putting runners on base, but there feels like to much fluky, timely hitting bringing in all those runs especially since they were a bottom six run scoring team last year. Sam Fuld (who I thought was brought in to be a fifth/sixth outfielder, not an every day starter), Trevor Plouffe, and Chris Colabello are all probably playing way over their heads, and I find it unlikely that Brian Dozier really has the kind of power he's showing so far. Now Joe Mauer and Aaron Hicks should probably be better than they're showing (can you believe Chris Herrmann pinch hit for Hicks today? Talk about a career low point) so it could kind of even out a bit, but if this team's going to do anything it's with pitching. And this pitching sucks. At least
- The Kentucky Derby is this weekend, and I'm always big fan and have given you jerks picks each of the last four years. Four years ago I hit Super Saver and two years ago my wife picked the winner with I'll Have Another, so you know what that means - I'm practically guaranteed to pick the winning horse.
My favorite bet is Intense Holiday at 16/1. He fits the profile of your typical derby winner - solid year at age 2 with improvement at age 3. He's also one of the best closers in the field. If he can stay middle of the pack for most of the race he should be able to make a late charge. Like this horse a lot. Also put down on Danza at 9/1 and Medal Count at 25/1. Danza is coming in hot and is a fast horse, but also has a lot of stamina in his pedigree, could very well be a wire to wire winner. Medal Count is similar to Danza in that he has a lot of stamina, but similar to Intense Holiday in that his best bet is to win with a late charge because he's not as fast as Danza. Long shot to win but I'll take a closer with stamina at 25/1. My kids chose Candy Boy (25/1) because hey, candy, and the wife went with Vicar's in Trouble because "he sounds British." So there you go. I'll probably do some kind of trifecta or exacta or something with my three horses and one of the front runners. Looking to win big this year.
BOATLOADS!
(ended up doing an trifecta box with Danza, Intense Holiday, California Chrome, Commanding Curve, and Wildcat Red)
There are 14 Big Ten teams. There are 15 ACC teams. Should be pretty straight forward, although with the realignment I suppose they had some leeway to play with things, but this is bullshit. No chance in hell Purdue, 12th in the Big Ten, should get NC State, who finished tied for 7th. If things were fair, horrible shit box Virginia Tech sits out (not Notre Dame) and based on records you get:
Virginia vs. Michigan
Louisville vs. Wisconsin
Syracuse vs. Michigan State
Duke vs. Nebraska
UNC vs. Ohio State
Pitt vs. Iowa
Clemson vs. Maryland
NC State vs. Minnesota
FSU vs. Illinois
Miami vs. Indiana
Wake vs. Penn State
Georgia Tech vs. Northwestern
Notre Dame vs. Purdue
BC vs. Rutgers
Way better and much more fair. Fucking NCAA Fascist bastards. Wake sucks, and they might even be worse next year. One of their top bench guys is transferring, and they're losing two starters. It's probably not all bad because their two leading scorers are back and they've got some decent young players, but I'm crabby so I'm bitching because the Gophers clearly got screwed because they're looked at as a bottom tier Big Ten program. Maybe they are but shit, you don't have to out of your way to fucking remind me. I need a drink.
- Going with Knob Creek.
- A little more news that might be of interest to Gopher fans is that Naadir Tharpe is transferring from Kansas. You may remember Tharpe from blogs such as this one because at one point he was ranked #90 overall and the #20 point guard in the country and all things pointed to him being a Gopher. If you don't feel like reading back, Tharpe had a two school list of Minnesota and Rutgers and then Rutgers signed Myles Mack so he canceled his official to Rutgers and the Gophers were in the driver's seat. Then Josiah Turner signed with Arizona (which did not work out well - DUI, kicked off team, transfer, reneg on transfer enter NBA draft, not drafted) which meant Kansas didn't have a point guard in their incoming class so they called Tharpe and about five minutes later, without even a visit, he was a Jayhawk. Once again, I don't need to be reminded constantly how the Gopher program ranks nationally. Thanks again, Tum Tum Nairn (who did almost the same thing).
Now, after 3 so so years in which he's made pretty good progress each year (1ppg/1apg to 6ppg/3apg to 9ppg/5apg) he's out. Kansas is fairly loaded at guard, and Tharpe actually lost his starting spot for a few games, but Tharpe is transferring to be closer to his daughter in Massachusetts (I think) who has been having some health issues. I would assume BC, UMass, and any of those Rhode Island schools are in play, and who knows, maybe UCONN. This is a pretty clear case of somebody who deserves a hardship waiver to be immediately eligible. So he's probably 50/50. The NCAA is neat.
- It's been awfully hard to keep up with the Twins this year considering they never seem to play, when they do it's almost always day games, my vpn trick to make mlb.com think I'm in California so I can watch their games on my computer has stopped working, and the pitching staff is once again horrible. Who could have possibly predicted that trying to upgrade the starters by signing two mediocre or worse starters and resigning a terrible one wouldn't have worked?
The team's starters post an ERA of 6.08, a WHIP of 1.64, a FIP of 4.74, and a xFIP of 4.95, numbers that are second worst, worst, second worst, and worst in the majors and this was coming into the day not even accounting for Pelfrey getting destroyed. Every single one of those numbers is worse than last year. Look at this rotation (ERA/FIP/xFIP/WHIP):
- Ricky Nolasco: 6.67/5.36/4.32/1.75
- Phil Hughes: 5.14/3.42/3.72/1.39
- Kevin Correia: 7.33/4.21/5.24/1.67
- Mike Pelfrey: 7.32/8.22/6.87/1.88
- Kyle Gibson: 4.34/3.55/4.79/1.55
As Ian Malcolm once said, "that is one big pile of shit." Gibson's the only one who has looked halfway decent but his last two outings have been pretty bad and I fear his hot start was mostly fluky. Hughes has been far and away the second best starter on this team so far. Phil Hughes! The good news is most of these guys aren't quite as bad as they've looked since with one exception their FIPs and xFIPS are lower than their ERA, which suggests that either luck or bad defense is making things worse and considering the team's horrendous corner outfielders it could be that, but they aren't suddenly going to get better. The bad news is that Mike Pelfrey might actually be worse than he's looked. Worse!
They're clawing around .500 thanks to an offense that has been putting up a shocking amount of runs ranking fifth in the majors, but man does that ever feel like fool's gold. Second in the majors in walks (after finishing 7th last season) should hold up and the team likely will keep putting runners on base, but there feels like to much fluky, timely hitting bringing in all those runs especially since they were a bottom six run scoring team last year. Sam Fuld (who I thought was brought in to be a fifth/sixth outfielder, not an every day starter), Trevor Plouffe, and Chris Colabello are all probably playing way over their heads, and I find it unlikely that Brian Dozier really has the kind of power he's showing so far. Now Joe Mauer and Aaron Hicks should probably be better than they're showing (can you believe Chris Herrmann pinch hit for Hicks today? Talk about a career low point) so it could kind of even out a bit, but if this team's going to do anything it's with pitching. And this pitching sucks. At least
- The Kentucky Derby is this weekend, and I'm always big fan and have given you jerks picks each of the last four years. Four years ago I hit Super Saver and two years ago my wife picked the winner with I'll Have Another, so you know what that means - I'm practically guaranteed to pick the winning horse.
My favorite bet is Intense Holiday at 16/1. He fits the profile of your typical derby winner - solid year at age 2 with improvement at age 3. He's also one of the best closers in the field. If he can stay middle of the pack for most of the race he should be able to make a late charge. Like this horse a lot. Also put down on Danza at 9/1 and Medal Count at 25/1. Danza is coming in hot and is a fast horse, but also has a lot of stamina in his pedigree, could very well be a wire to wire winner. Medal Count is similar to Danza in that he has a lot of stamina, but similar to Intense Holiday in that his best bet is to win with a late charge because he's not as fast as Danza. Long shot to win but I'll take a closer with stamina at 25/1. My kids chose Candy Boy (25/1) because hey, candy, and the wife went with Vicar's in Trouble because "he sounds British." So there you go. I'll probably do some kind of trifecta or exacta or something with my three horses and one of the front runners. Looking to win big this year.
BOATLOADS!
(ended up doing an trifecta box with Danza, Intense Holiday, California Chrome, Commanding Curve, and Wildcat Red)
Tuesday, December 17, 2013
Tuesday Talkers
I hate this time of year. Not because of Christmas because I love Christmas because hey, no work, but because there's so little going on. College basketball is just so slow. There might be an interesting game or two, but in general it's pretty boring. And next week is even worse with Christmas and stuff. I have no idea why college kids can't play basketball over Christmas week. I doubt they like their families anyway. So since I have nothing else to write about and I just did a movie blog, here's just some stuff.
- Things should be a bit more entertaining when Rutgers joins the Big 10 than previously hoped. Not because they're any good, because they're still pretty terrible at 5-7 this year (with a loss to William & Mary!) but because former Hoya Greg Whittington has committed to play for the Scarlet Knights after getting kicked off the team at Georgetown. Whittington is a solid player who averaged 12 points and 7 rebounds per game for Georgetown last season before being ruled ineligible. Of course I suppose it's a a question of if he ever actually arrives there considering that being ruled ineligible and then getting kicked off the team, not to mention he's dealing with ACL tear right now. And I don't know when he'd be eligible to play or how many years he'll have left since his circumstances are a bit weird. Hooray for information!
- North Carolina is a fascinating team this year, and I don't just mean because they've beaten Louisville, Michigan State, and Kentucky while losing to Belmont and UAB, although that's pretty crazy in and of itself. I mean because they're playing a completely different style than anyone else in basketball. The average basketball team takes 32.5% of their field goal attempts from behind the 3-point arc, and scores 26% of it's total points on three-pointers. The Tar Heels take just 15.9% of their shots from three, and that shot makes up just 10.7% of their points - both of those are dead last in the NCAA. The team in front of them in % of attempts (Lamar) takes 19.8% of their shots from three, and the team in front of them for % of points from three (Bowling Green) gets 14.3% of their points from deep. So North Carolina ignores the three point shot to at extent that nobody else can even touch, and it's intentional because almost every year under Roy Williams they've ranked in the 330s in those metrics (I had no idea). It's probably a good thing since they shoot under 30% and Marcus Paige is their only halfway reliable shooter, but isn't that weird. I think it's weird. And I'm sharing it with you because you deserve to know weird things that are weird.
- If you're wondering about the Gophers, and I'm sure you are since this is allegedly a Gopher blog, they take 39.6% of their shots from three (48th) and get 32.1% of their points from there (54th), shooting an above average 35.7% (vs. 33.9% national average). These numbers are all up considerably from last season when the Gophers were ranked in the 270s, which makes sense both given the change in roster make up and Pitino's emphasis on the 3-ball. Plus, it's way more fun.
- Semi-Gopher related, but if Rashad Vaughn ends up at Iowa State (I said if!!) he's in for a monster year. Hoiberg gives his guards so much freedom offensively and such little responsibility defensively that he'll end up averaging like 25 a game. I don't know that it's the best thing for his development, but it's not like a bad defensive year will suddenly drop him out of the first round of the draft. I really hope he's a Gopher next season, but I can see the Iowa State appeal no doubt.
- Apparently Miramax is going to be producing a sequel to Rounders and will be turning Good Will Hunting into a television series. These both sound like horrible ideas. Rounders 2 could be good depending on where they take the characters, but for some reason I'm picturing a version of the Hangover with more gambling, and I suppose that could be entertaining even if it isn't necessarily "good" if you know what I mean. The Good Will Hunting series is baffling. I have no idea what they'd even do with it. Hopefully someone smarter than me has that one figured out already.
- Tons of stuff going down in baseball with the winter meetings and everything, way too much to comment on in depth even for me, but I'll tackle a couple things:
- Finally got all subscribed up with Netflix and we started watching Orange is the New Black. Really good show. In a world where I'm having more and more trouble finding new good shows and even some of my old favorites seem to be heading off the rails, it was refreshing to find a show that is both well made and entertaining since there are like 3 of those left. Check it out. It's not Breaking Bad, but what is? Nothing. Nothing is. God such a good show I miss it so much. Magnets, bitch!
- Plus, it brings Amazonian hot Laura Prepon back in my life, which is a solid plus.
- Semi-Gopher related, but it seems Syracuse fans have little to no interest in traveling to Houston for the Texas Bowl against the Gophers. Instead, the fantastic Syracuse blog Troy Nunes is an Absolute Magician is organizing a donation drive among readers/fans to send under privileged Houston area kids to the game for free, with a goal of getting tickets for 200 kids (plus a hotdog, soda, and a freaking Cuse shirt). I don't know if it's the Christmas season or getting older or having my own kids or what, but I thought this was really, really cool. Or maybe it's just the Gopher connection. Let's go with that.
- I love Jay Cutler.
- If you don't know the story behind this, it's here.
- I know the last thing anybody really wants to hear about is someone else's fantasy woes (Jay Cutler would weight in on this one) but indulge me for a moment. Due to Andrew Luck falling off a cliff post Reggie Wayne injury and Alex Smith suddenly lighting the world on fire I benched Luck for Smith two weekends ago in our quarterfinal. Ended up losing by 2 points on Brandon Marshall's last catch Monday night, and would have won easily if I had kept Luck in there. Then I would have won easily this week, so I should be in the championship, but I'm not instead at sitting around like a loser. Fantasy football is really stupid. And so are you.
- I took this quiz and got 198/200 (missed Tony Allen and Brian Scalabrine). I feel both proud and slightly embarrassed.
- Good news for the Gophers, Florida State absolutely crushed Charlotte tonight. The same Charlotte squad who beat Michigan earlier this year, and, with a certainly possible good year in a weak Conference USA, could end up a top 100 RPI team. Thus, since Florida State beats them and the Gophers beat Florida State through osmosis that helps the Gophers' RPI. Or something. I don't know. I'm not that bright.
- I was gonna right more but first I got distracted by Orange is the New Black and then I realized I really hate you.
- Things should be a bit more entertaining when Rutgers joins the Big 10 than previously hoped. Not because they're any good, because they're still pretty terrible at 5-7 this year (with a loss to William & Mary!) but because former Hoya Greg Whittington has committed to play for the Scarlet Knights after getting kicked off the team at Georgetown. Whittington is a solid player who averaged 12 points and 7 rebounds per game for Georgetown last season before being ruled ineligible. Of course I suppose it's a a question of if he ever actually arrives there considering that being ruled ineligible and then getting kicked off the team, not to mention he's dealing with ACL tear right now. And I don't know when he'd be eligible to play or how many years he'll have left since his circumstances are a bit weird. Hooray for information!
- North Carolina is a fascinating team this year, and I don't just mean because they've beaten Louisville, Michigan State, and Kentucky while losing to Belmont and UAB, although that's pretty crazy in and of itself. I mean because they're playing a completely different style than anyone else in basketball. The average basketball team takes 32.5% of their field goal attempts from behind the 3-point arc, and scores 26% of it's total points on three-pointers. The Tar Heels take just 15.9% of their shots from three, and that shot makes up just 10.7% of their points - both of those are dead last in the NCAA. The team in front of them in % of attempts (Lamar) takes 19.8% of their shots from three, and the team in front of them for % of points from three (Bowling Green) gets 14.3% of their points from deep. So North Carolina ignores the three point shot to at extent that nobody else can even touch, and it's intentional because almost every year under Roy Williams they've ranked in the 330s in those metrics (I had no idea). It's probably a good thing since they shoot under 30% and Marcus Paige is their only halfway reliable shooter, but isn't that weird. I think it's weird. And I'm sharing it with you because you deserve to know weird things that are weird.
- If you're wondering about the Gophers, and I'm sure you are since this is allegedly a Gopher blog, they take 39.6% of their shots from three (48th) and get 32.1% of their points from there (54th), shooting an above average 35.7% (vs. 33.9% national average). These numbers are all up considerably from last season when the Gophers were ranked in the 270s, which makes sense both given the change in roster make up and Pitino's emphasis on the 3-ball. Plus, it's way more fun.
- Semi-Gopher related, but if Rashad Vaughn ends up at Iowa State (I said if!!) he's in for a monster year. Hoiberg gives his guards so much freedom offensively and such little responsibility defensively that he'll end up averaging like 25 a game. I don't know that it's the best thing for his development, but it's not like a bad defensive year will suddenly drop him out of the first round of the draft. I really hope he's a Gopher next season, but I can see the Iowa State appeal no doubt.
- Apparently Miramax is going to be producing a sequel to Rounders and will be turning Good Will Hunting into a television series. These both sound like horrible ideas. Rounders 2 could be good depending on where they take the characters, but for some reason I'm picturing a version of the Hangover with more gambling, and I suppose that could be entertaining even if it isn't necessarily "good" if you know what I mean. The Good Will Hunting series is baffling. I have no idea what they'd even do with it. Hopefully someone smarter than me has that one figured out already.
- Tons of stuff going down in baseball with the winter meetings and everything, way too much to comment on in depth even for me, but I'll tackle a couple things:
- The Twins signed Phil Hughes, Ricky Nolasco, and Mike Pelfrey and are still chasing Bronson Arroyo. I read one comment along the lines of, "I've never seen a team retool by chasing so much mediocrity" and that may be true, but mediocrity is a huge upgrade for this team. Twins' starters had an ERA of 5.26 last season, worst in the majors by nearly half a run (0.45 to be precise). They were the second worst in 2012 with an ERA of 5.40, better than only the Rockies. 2011? Fifth worst at 4.64. From 2011-2013 Twins' starters' ERA was 5.08, worst in the majors. So yeah, Hughes, Nolasco, Pelfrey, and Arroyo might be mediocre, but they almost can't be worse than what they've been trotting out there. Right? RIGHT?
- Jason Kubel is back with the Twins, and that's cool because he was always one of my favorites and I even had a Kubel shirt which I have since gotten rid of (waa waa). He signed a minor league contract with an invite to spring training, and it surprised me they got him so cheap. Yes he was brutal last year, but in 2012 he hit 30 homers and OPS+ed 120. He's become even more useless against lefties, but he should be a solid platoon player against right handed pitchers. Considering Doumit hits lefties pretty well that could be a pretty good DH combo. Of course there's no chance of that actually happening because Gardy.
- Speaking of the AL Central, I am really not liking what the White Sox are doing. Everyone has ranked them for years as having the worst farm system, so the thought was they'd be terrible for like a decade and that made me smile because fuck the White Sox, right? Well now all of a sudden they've acquired a young promising outfielder in Avisail Garica, a young promising outfielder in Adam Eaton, a young promising third baseman in Matt Davidson, and the latest big swinging Cuban in 1B/DH guy Jose Abreu. The pitching is still a huge question mark behind Chris Sale, but I liked it better when Kenny Williams was burning the team down by trading away all youth and trying to fix problems by throwing money at them. I can't remember this new guys name but he's been making a lot of mostly under the radar, smart moves and I don't like it one bit. Now, with the two new guys, Alejandro de Aza is suddenly available, and this stupid guy will probably do something smart with him. Sucks.
- By the way, Eaton is 5-8 and describes himself as "gritty dirt bag" kind of player. So that should be a blast. Hawk will probably have an orgasm on the air at some point.
- Finally got all subscribed up with Netflix and we started watching Orange is the New Black. Really good show. In a world where I'm having more and more trouble finding new good shows and even some of my old favorites seem to be heading off the rails, it was refreshing to find a show that is both well made and entertaining since there are like 3 of those left. Check it out. It's not Breaking Bad, but what is? Nothing. Nothing is. God such a good show I miss it so much. Magnets, bitch!
- Plus, it brings Amazonian hot Laura Prepon back in my life, which is a solid plus.
- Semi-Gopher related, but it seems Syracuse fans have little to no interest in traveling to Houston for the Texas Bowl against the Gophers. Instead, the fantastic Syracuse blog Troy Nunes is an Absolute Magician is organizing a donation drive among readers/fans to send under privileged Houston area kids to the game for free, with a goal of getting tickets for 200 kids (plus a hotdog, soda, and a freaking Cuse shirt). I don't know if it's the Christmas season or getting older or having my own kids or what, but I thought this was really, really cool. Or maybe it's just the Gopher connection. Let's go with that.
- I love Jay Cutler.
- If you don't know the story behind this, it's here.
- I know the last thing anybody really wants to hear about is someone else's fantasy woes (Jay Cutler would weight in on this one) but indulge me for a moment. Due to Andrew Luck falling off a cliff post Reggie Wayne injury and Alex Smith suddenly lighting the world on fire I benched Luck for Smith two weekends ago in our quarterfinal. Ended up losing by 2 points on Brandon Marshall's last catch Monday night, and would have won easily if I had kept Luck in there. Then I would have won easily this week, so I should be in the championship, but I'm not instead at sitting around like a loser. Fantasy football is really stupid. And so are you.
- I took this quiz and got 198/200 (missed Tony Allen and Brian Scalabrine). I feel both proud and slightly embarrassed.
- Good news for the Gophers, Florida State absolutely crushed Charlotte tonight. The same Charlotte squad who beat Michigan earlier this year, and, with a certainly possible good year in a weak Conference USA, could end up a top 100 RPI team. Thus, since Florida State beats them and the Gophers beat Florida State through osmosis that helps the Gophers' RPI. Or something. I don't know. I'm not that bright.
- I was gonna right more but first I got distracted by Orange is the New Black and then I realized I really hate you.
Friday, May 23, 2008
Johan Prospects Revisited
Kind of, I mean. There were a whole bunch of names thrown out as possible prospects to be coming to the Twins for Johan this offseason. I figured, since I'm bored, why not take a look at how they are performing this season.
But first, I want to do a quick book review of one I just finished, Fantasyland by Sam Walker. It's written by a sportswriter for the Wall Street Journal, who - at the time - had never played fantasy baseball, and finally decided to give it a try. Rather than playing in a local league with friends or colleagues, he wrangles himself an invite to Tout Wars, the premiere Rotissiere Baseball league in the country. It's pretty solid. His methods of preparation for the draft are a fun read, and involve a good amount of the good ole stats vs. perception debate, and when he writes about players it's a lot of fun. He does get bogged down at times talking about some of the history of fantasy baseball and describing his fellow competitors, but I suppose that's what you get in a fantasy baseball book compared to a baseball book. I mean, that stuff was interesting, but it got to be a little much. It does have some nice local flavor, as the poor bastard ended up with Jacque Jones, Doug Mientkewicz, Brad Radke, and Corey Koskie all on his team at some point in the season. I give Fantasyland a mild recommendation. Check it out.
Anyway, here's a little rundown of the prospects bandied about in Johan talks, and we'll start with the Yankees' guys:
Phil Hughes: The name that kept coming up but was allegedly not going to be included in any deal, Hughes season has been a trainwreck so far, with a WHIP north of 2.1 in 22 innings and an ERA of 9.00. Somewhat surprising, given his success in 13 starts last season and a couple of good postseason relief appearances, but it appears he may not have been ready just yet and is now on the shelf until July or so. He also gives us an excellent excuse,
Awesome. Rather than worrying about the catcher's signs, I'd worry about throwing good pitches if I'm Hughes. His strikeout rate is way down, his walk rate is way up, and opponents are hitting .354 against him. His BABIP (batting average balls in play) is a silly .395, which will regress to the mean a bit, but when 29% of the balls opponents hit off you are line drives, your BABIP is going to be high.
Ian Kennedy: Hughes is pretty much the only guy who could make Kennedy's season look good so far. At one point he seemed very likely to be headed the Twins way, he's looked like garbage, posting a 1.79 WHIP and a 7.27 ERA after cutting it by more than a run following his outing Thursday night. He finally put up a decent outing, going six innings and only giving up one run. His control has been god awful, throwing out 25 walks in 35 innings, which is not a problem he had in the minors.
Melky Cabrera: The CF to go along with Ian Kennedy in a package which I hated. I believed Cabrera's upside was a merely average center fielder, and now that he's become the Yanks' regular CF, he's shown me nothing. He's actually been slightly below average this season, putting up .242/.322/.422 for an OPS+ of 96. He does have six homeruns, and shows good plate discipline with 15 walks so far. I'm pretty much sticking with an upside of "average."
Other assorted Yankee Crap: A few other names thrown about from the Yankee system include P Jeff Marquez - promoted to AAA this season and getting shelled, P Alan Horne - hurt all year and pitched in only two games so far in triple A, and OF Austin Jackson - OPSing .780 in AA with just two homeruns in 171 ABs.
Basically, right now all the pieces from the Yankee offers are looking like crap. Any of these guys could still develop into a very good player, except Cabrera, but this season they look terrible. How about the Sox?
Clay Buchholz: I don't remember for sure, but I don't think he was ever actually on the table. I kind of wrote about Buchholz while writing about Reusse, but it boils down to the fact that Buchholz hasn't had anywhere near the success he had last season. He's struggled with injuries and a 1.63 WHIP, but his BABIP is a big .376, which should come down along with the rest of his metrics. I still think Buchholz is the best prospect out of this whole mess.
Jon Lester: He tossed a no-hitter already, so obviously he's doing something right and it's more than just beating cancer. Although his K/9 is down a bit, but has increased is groundball percentage from 34% to 50%, and correspondingly his home run rate is way down as well. He's pitching very well this year, and is looking like a top level prospect.
Jed Lowrie: The shortstop I was very excited about getting, mainly because the Twins haven't had a good one in years and Adam Everett hasn't exactly stopped that trend. Got the call to the bigs this year, and in 42 ABs has put up .310/.340/.476. Small sample size, yes, but he certainly hasn't look overmatched at the big league level.
Jacoby Ellsbury: Kid has followed up last postseason with a excellent beginning of the season so far. In fact, I'm going to go ahead and call him the next Ricky Henderson. A line of .291/.396/.426 for an OPS+ of 122 to go along with 4 homeruns, 19 steals, and 23 walks. An OBP 100 points higher than his BA gives me a serious boner. He's in the top 30 in walk rate this season and top 40 in not swinging at balls outside the strike zone, and he's only 24 years old. Add in his rugged good looks, and I think I have a serious crush.
Justin Masterson: Kind of a throw-in to the Boston trades, he's been called up to make a couple of starts for the Red Sox when they needed him to fill in. He's gone at least six innings in each, giving up just one run each time on the way to a 0.97 WHIP and 1.46 ERA.
Ryan Kalish: Another throw-in prospect type, this one isn't having quite the same success. Kalish is in A ball for the third straight year, and is putting up just .255/.342/.363. On the bright side, in his minor league career he's 25-28 stealing bases.
Coco Crisp: Blah blah blah he's an excellent defensive player and an above averge hitter. boring.
So there you have it. If they could have pulled the trigger on the Ellsbury, Masterson, Lowrie deal, that would have been the one to get, and I prefer that very much over what the ended up with. Hopefully I'm wrong, and Gomez will be the next Ricky Henderson and the three pitchers all end up good.
By the way, if you're looking for someone to have a monster rest of the season, look out for Marlins' pitcher Andrew Miller. You heard it here first.
But first, I want to do a quick book review of one I just finished, Fantasyland by Sam Walker. It's written by a sportswriter for the Wall Street Journal, who - at the time - had never played fantasy baseball, and finally decided to give it a try. Rather than playing in a local league with friends or colleagues, he wrangles himself an invite to Tout Wars, the premiere Rotissiere Baseball league in the country. It's pretty solid. His methods of preparation for the draft are a fun read, and involve a good amount of the good ole stats vs. perception debate, and when he writes about players it's a lot of fun. He does get bogged down at times talking about some of the history of fantasy baseball and describing his fellow competitors, but I suppose that's what you get in a fantasy baseball book compared to a baseball book. I mean, that stuff was interesting, but it got to be a little much. It does have some nice local flavor, as the poor bastard ended up with Jacque Jones, Doug Mientkewicz, Brad Radke, and Corey Koskie all on his team at some point in the season. I give Fantasyland a mild recommendation. Check it out.
Anyway, here's a little rundown of the prospects bandied about in Johan talks, and we'll start with the Yankees' guys:
Phil Hughes: The name that kept coming up but was allegedly not going to be included in any deal, Hughes season has been a trainwreck so far, with a WHIP north of 2.1 in 22 innings and an ERA of 9.00. Somewhat surprising, given his success in 13 starts last season and a couple of good postseason relief appearances, but it appears he may not have been ready just yet and is now on the shelf until July or so. He also gives us an excellent excuse,
"Phil Hughes will be wearing glasses when he returns to the mound to help dull the glare of the lights during night games. Hughes said he had trouble seeing the catcher's signs and is "slightly nearsighted." "When I looked through the prescription, it made a pretty big difference."
Awesome. Rather than worrying about the catcher's signs, I'd worry about throwing good pitches if I'm Hughes. His strikeout rate is way down, his walk rate is way up, and opponents are hitting .354 against him. His BABIP (batting average balls in play) is a silly .395, which will regress to the mean a bit, but when 29% of the balls opponents hit off you are line drives, your BABIP is going to be high.
Ian Kennedy: Hughes is pretty much the only guy who could make Kennedy's season look good so far. At one point he seemed very likely to be headed the Twins way, he's looked like garbage, posting a 1.79 WHIP and a 7.27 ERA after cutting it by more than a run following his outing Thursday night. He finally put up a decent outing, going six innings and only giving up one run. His control has been god awful, throwing out 25 walks in 35 innings, which is not a problem he had in the minors.
Melky Cabrera: The CF to go along with Ian Kennedy in a package which I hated. I believed Cabrera's upside was a merely average center fielder, and now that he's become the Yanks' regular CF, he's shown me nothing. He's actually been slightly below average this season, putting up .242/.322/.422 for an OPS+ of 96. He does have six homeruns, and shows good plate discipline with 15 walks so far. I'm pretty much sticking with an upside of "average."
Other assorted Yankee Crap: A few other names thrown about from the Yankee system include P Jeff Marquez - promoted to AAA this season and getting shelled, P Alan Horne - hurt all year and pitched in only two games so far in triple A, and OF Austin Jackson - OPSing .780 in AA with just two homeruns in 171 ABs.
Basically, right now all the pieces from the Yankee offers are looking like crap. Any of these guys could still develop into a very good player, except Cabrera, but this season they look terrible. How about the Sox?
Clay Buchholz: I don't remember for sure, but I don't think he was ever actually on the table. I kind of wrote about Buchholz while writing about Reusse, but it boils down to the fact that Buchholz hasn't had anywhere near the success he had last season. He's struggled with injuries and a 1.63 WHIP, but his BABIP is a big .376, which should come down along with the rest of his metrics. I still think Buchholz is the best prospect out of this whole mess.
Jon Lester: He tossed a no-hitter already, so obviously he's doing something right and it's more than just beating cancer. Although his K/9 is down a bit, but has increased is groundball percentage from 34% to 50%, and correspondingly his home run rate is way down as well. He's pitching very well this year, and is looking like a top level prospect.
Jed Lowrie: The shortstop I was very excited about getting, mainly because the Twins haven't had a good one in years and Adam Everett hasn't exactly stopped that trend. Got the call to the bigs this year, and in 42 ABs has put up .310/.340/.476. Small sample size, yes, but he certainly hasn't look overmatched at the big league level.
Jacoby Ellsbury: Kid has followed up last postseason with a excellent beginning of the season so far. In fact, I'm going to go ahead and call him the next Ricky Henderson. A line of .291/.396/.426 for an OPS+ of 122 to go along with 4 homeruns, 19 steals, and 23 walks. An OBP 100 points higher than his BA gives me a serious boner. He's in the top 30 in walk rate this season and top 40 in not swinging at balls outside the strike zone, and he's only 24 years old. Add in his rugged good looks, and I think I have a serious crush.
Justin Masterson: Kind of a throw-in to the Boston trades, he's been called up to make a couple of starts for the Red Sox when they needed him to fill in. He's gone at least six innings in each, giving up just one run each time on the way to a 0.97 WHIP and 1.46 ERA.
Ryan Kalish: Another throw-in prospect type, this one isn't having quite the same success. Kalish is in A ball for the third straight year, and is putting up just .255/.342/.363. On the bright side, in his minor league career he's 25-28 stealing bases.
Coco Crisp: Blah blah blah he's an excellent defensive player and an above averge hitter. boring.
So there you have it. If they could have pulled the trigger on the Ellsbury, Masterson, Lowrie deal, that would have been the one to get, and I prefer that very much over what the ended up with. Hopefully I'm wrong, and Gomez will be the next Ricky Henderson and the three pitchers all end up good.
By the way, if you're looking for someone to have a monster rest of the season, look out for Marlins' pitcher Andrew Miller. You heard it here first.
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