Thursday Thoughts

-  So the "big" news of the day in Gopher land is that the Big 10/ACC Challenge match-ups were announced and the Gophers got screwed.  No, it's not Florida State for the 12th time, but they ended up getting slated to go on the road to Wake Forest.  Despite finishing 7th in the league, the Gophers get last season's 11th place Demon Deacons who are probably going to be even worse.  At the same time, the 6th place Hawkeyes get North Carolina, and Illinois and Indiana, who both finished below the Gophers, get much more favorable match-ups in Miami and Pitt, and last place Purdue got a fun match-up in NC State.  This is horseshit.

There are 14 Big Ten teams.  There are 15 ACC teams.  Should be pretty straight forward, although with the realignment I suppose they had some leeway to play with things, but this is bullshit.  No chance in hell Purdue, 12th in the Big Ten, should get NC State, who finished tied for 7th.  If things were fair, horrible shit box Virginia Tech sits out (not Notre Dame) and based on records you get:

Virginia vs. Michigan
Louisville vs. Wisconsin
Syracuse vs. Michigan State
Duke vs.  Nebraska
UNC vs. Ohio State
Pitt vs. Iowa
Clemson vs. Maryland
NC State vs. Minnesota
FSU vs.  Illinois
Miami vs.  Indiana
Wake vs.   Penn State
Georgia Tech vs.  Northwestern
Notre Dame vs.  Purdue
BC vs.  Rutgers

Way better and much more fair.  Fucking NCAA Fascist bastards.  Wake sucks, and they might even be worse next year.  One of their top bench guys is transferring, and they're losing two starters.  It's probably not all bad because their two leading scorers are back and they've got some decent young players, but I'm crabby so I'm bitching because the Gophers clearly got screwed because they're looked at as a bottom tier Big Ten program.  Maybe they are but shit, you don't have to out of your way to fucking remind me.  I need a drink.

-  Going with Knob Creek.

- A little more news that might be of interest to Gopher fans is that Naadir Tharpe is transferring from Kansas.  You may remember Tharpe from blogs such as this one because at one point he was ranked #90 overall and the #20 point guard in the country and all things pointed to him being a Gopher.  If you don't feel like reading back, Tharpe had a two school list of Minnesota and Rutgers and then Rutgers signed Myles Mack so he canceled his official to Rutgers and the Gophers were in the driver's seat.  Then Josiah Turner signed with Arizona (which did not work out well - DUI, kicked off team, transfer, reneg on transfer enter NBA draft, not drafted) which meant Kansas didn't have a point guard in their incoming class so they called Tharpe and about five minutes later, without even a visit, he was a Jayhawk.  Once again, I don't need to be reminded constantly how the Gopher program ranks nationally.  Thanks again, Tum Tum Nairn (who did almost the same thing).

Now, after 3 so so years in which he's made pretty good progress each year (1ppg/1apg to 6ppg/3apg to 9ppg/5apg) he's out.  Kansas is fairly loaded at guard, and Tharpe actually lost his starting spot for a few games, but Tharpe is transferring to be closer to his daughter in Massachusetts (I think) who has been having some health issues.  I would assume BC, UMass, and any of those Rhode Island schools are in play, and who knows, maybe UCONN.  This is a pretty clear case of somebody who deserves a hardship waiver to be immediately eligible.  So he's probably 50/50.  The NCAA is neat.

-  It's been awfully hard to keep up with the Twins this year considering they never seem to play, when they do it's almost always day games, my vpn trick to make mlb.com think I'm in California so I can watch their games on my computer has stopped working, and the pitching staff is once again horrible.  Who could have possibly predicted that trying to upgrade the starters by signing two mediocre or worse starters and resigning a terrible one wouldn't have worked?

The team's starters post an ERA of 6.08, a WHIP of 1.64, a FIP of 4.74, and a xFIP of 4.95, numbers that are second worst, worst, second worst, and worst in the majors and this was coming into the day not even accounting for Pelfrey getting destroyed.   Every single one of those numbers is worse than last year.  Look at this rotation (ERA/FIP/xFIP/WHIP):

• Ricky Nolasco:  6.67/5.36/4.32/1.75
• Phil Hughes:  5.14/3.42/3.72/1.39
• Kevin Correia:  7.33/4.21/5.24/1.67
• Mike Pelfrey:  7.32/8.22/6.87/1.88
• Kyle Gibson: 4.34/3.55/4.79/1.55

As Ian Malcolm once said, "that is one big pile of shit."  Gibson's the only one who has looked halfway decent but his last two outings have been pretty bad and I fear his hot start was mostly fluky.  Hughes has been far and away the second best starter on this team so far.  Phil Hughes!  The good news is most of these guys aren't quite as bad as they've looked since with one exception their FIPs and xFIPS are lower than their ERA, which suggests that either luck or bad defense is making things worse and considering the team's horrendous corner outfielders it could be that, but they aren't suddenly going to get better.  The bad news is that Mike Pelfrey might actually be worse than he's looked.  Worse!  

They're clawing around .500 thanks to an offense that has been putting up a shocking amount of runs ranking fifth in the majors, but man does that ever feel like fool's gold.  Second in the majors in walks (after finishing 7th last season) should hold up and the team likely will keep putting runners on base, but there feels like to much fluky, timely hitting bringing in all those runs especially since they were a bottom six run scoring team last year.  Sam Fuld (who I thought was brought in to be a fifth/sixth outfielder, not an every day starter), Trevor Plouffe, and Chris Colabello are all probably playing way over their heads, and I find it unlikely that Brian Dozier really has the kind of power he's showing so far.  Now Joe Mauer and Aaron Hicks should probably be better than they're showing (can you believe Chris Herrmann pinch hit for Hicks today?  Talk about a career low point) so it could kind of even out a bit, but if this team's going to do anything it's with pitching.  And this pitching sucks.  At least

-  The Kentucky Derby is this weekend, and I'm always big fan and have given you jerks picks each of the last four years.  Four years ago I hit Super Saver and two years ago my wife picked the winner with I'll Have Another, so you know what that means - I'm practically guaranteed to pick the winning horse.

My favorite bet is Intense Holiday at 16/1.  He fits the profile of your typical derby winner - solid year at age 2 with improvement at age 3.  He's also one of the best closers in the field.  If he can stay middle of the pack for most of the race he should be able to make a late charge.  Like this horse a lot.  Also put down on Danza at 9/1 and Medal Count at 25/1.  Danza is coming in hot and is a fast horse, but also has a lot of stamina in his pedigree, could very well be a wire to wire winner.  Medal Count is similar to Danza in that he has a lot of stamina, but similar to Intense Holiday in that his best bet is to win with a late charge because he's not as fast as Danza.  Long shot to win but I'll take a closer with stamina at 25/1.  My kids chose Candy Boy (25/1) because hey, candy, and the wife went with Vicar's in Trouble because "he sounds British."  So there you go.  I'll probably do some kind of trifecta or exacta or something with my three horses and one of the front runners.  Looking to win big this year.

BOATLOADS!

(ended up doing an trifecta box with Danza, Intense Holiday, California Chrome, Commanding Curve, and Wildcat Red)

Carry on My Wayward Son

In news that is super not shocking to anybody who has been paying attention, the nation's #20 point guard (#90 overall) according to Rivals and Gopher target Naadir Tharpe signed on with the Kansas Jayhawks today.

Tharpe had been a big target of the Gophers, and at one point they were looking like the front runners to land him.  He seemingly had cut his list to Minnesota and Rutgers, or at least those were the only two schools he had made plans to make an official visit to see, but ended up canceling his visit to Rutgers after they signed a different point guard, leaving the Gophers in prime position to secure a commitment.  Despite reporting that he had a great time and really liked Tubby, Tharpe never declared his intention to enroll at the U, and the writing was on the wall.

As more time passed, Tharpe garnered more and more interest with teams like NC State and Oklahoma sniffing around, but then came the big blow:  enter Kansas.  After their higher rated higher profile point guard targets went elsewhere, the Jayhawks went after Tharpe and it didn't take long for them to woo their strumpet.  Josiah Turner (#2 PG) chose Arizona on September 19th, Anthony Wroten (#8) chose Washington on October 13th, and suddenly Bill Self was after Tharpe.  He scheduled a visit to Lawrence for October 22nd, but apparently didn't need it, because after Self called Monday night to extend an offer he didn't even take 48 hours to accept.

So basically the Gophers are the nice, safe, mildy attractive chick while Kansas is the super hot chick with the killer rack who puts out.  I'd like to make some kind of pro-Gopher joke here, but I can't.  Why wouldn't you pick the hot chick with the sweet ass?  The only thing the dumpy girl has to offer is you know she won't upgrade to a better guy in a year.  Which, by the way, is apt because that's kind of what I see happening to Tharpe.

I have a feeling he's a bit of his element here, and KU is just going to upgrade the position in one of their next classes, leaving him on the bench.  They've already offered the #4, #5, #6, and #9 point guards for the class of 2012, so to torture this analogy a bit further, they've basically got four better looking, more successful dudes on speed dial.  If people still used speed dial.

But that, of course, is really neither here nor there, and what we really need to concern ourselves with here is that there is suddenly only one recruit remaining who we really care about who could become a Gopher, Andre Hollins, and it suddenly looks like the point guard cupboard is bare (Hollins is a combo guard).  With Al Nolen graduating after this year, and the only point guards on the roster being a shooting guard, a guy who might not be D-I material, and a football player, I'm beyond nervous.

Fact of the matter is they need to land a point guard, and they need to land a good one.  Going into battle with a bunch of last minute hail mary type signees isn't going to get it done.  This isn't Iowa.  

Gopher Recruiting Update

When it comes to Gopher basketball recruiting for next season there are really only four names you need to care about:  Joe Coleman, Naadir Tharpe, Andre Hollins, and Josh Oglesby.  That's it.  Everybody else of consequence has signed with Virginia (Malcolm Brogdon and Paul Jesperson) or seems like more of a fallback and will probably go somewhere like Northwestern or Stanford or some other smart person school with his big brain and slow white body (Shelby Moats - and don't get me wrong, I like what I've read and think he could be successful here, but my instincts tell me he's going to a smarty pants school).  Here is who is relevant:

SG Joe Coleman - Hopkins, MN - #34 SG and #116 overall by Rivals.  He's rated even higher by ESPN, and there's no doubt he should be the #1 priority for Tubby and crew.  Not because he plays the biggest position of need for 2011-2012, which is pretty clearly point guard, but because he's a highly rated player from Minnesota.  Tubby did a great job getting Rodney Williams and Royce White, even though we're still kind of waiting for Rodney to arrive and obviously Royce never really did.  Or, more accurately, he arrived wielding a sledgehammer, destroying everything around him before fleeing to Ames.  But it's still important to keep Minnesota kids who are highly rated in state because it sends a message to future players.

Guys like Tyus Jones, class of 2014 PG already on everybody's radar, see top instate talent, guys they've played against and/or played with in camps and on all-star teams, heading to play for the Gophers and it creates a culture where that just becomes what you do.  Obviously you can't solely recruit instate players, this isn't hockey in the 90s, but it can become almost automatic that a top flight instate player stays home, but that has to be built up, and Tubby has to continue that momentum and that means getting Coleman.  The fact that his brother, Dan, played here cements it ever further that Coleman is the #1 most important player in this class.

All accounts I've read say he is going to be deciding soon, possibly as early as today, and he's basically narrowed it down to Santa Clara and the Gophers after eliminating Iowa State earlier this week following their signing of SG Tyus McGee.  With the Broncos the Gophers only real competition it almost seems like a given, but don't underestimate the beautiful weather and the pretty girls in California.  And don't forget Ray Cowels, formerly of Hopkins, is still out there to help sell Coleman on the West Coast.  I know I was worried that he'd talk Rodney into it, and obviously that didn't happen, but it's still something to be concerned about.

PG Naadir Tharpe -  Wolfeboro, NH - #20 PG and #91 overall by Rivals.  Tharpe is an extremely important get as well, because after this coming season Al Nolen graduates (or loses eligibility at least) and that leaves the team with no real point guard unless you want to count Bryant Allen or Maverick Ahanmisi, and I really don't.  There's really no other point guard on the radar either, although there is a combo guard I'll talk about in a minute, but I'd rather go to battle with a true point than a combo (plus we already have one of those in Devoe), and by all accounts Tharpe is a true point guard.

ESPN speaks glowingly of his skills in their scouting report, citing his "tight handle", "excellent court vision", and ability to run the offense and break and apply ball pressure.  The Gophers are said to be at the top of his list following his visit September 17th, when he tweeted he had an excellent steak at Seven with Tubby, which should be good news but makes me nervous.  He had only scheduled two visits, with the Gophers and with Rutgers, but ended up canceling the Rutgers visit after they signed a different point.  With Minnesota the only team on the radar I was hopeful he would sign quickly after coming to Minneapolis, but despite telling everyone he had an excellent visit and that he connected with Tubby and really enjoyed himself, that didn't happen.

Tharpe has come out and said he won't make a decision until Spring, which gives more teams a chance to come sniffing around, and Kansas has now expressed interest after PG Josiah Turner signed with Arizona.  Did he not make the Gophers his choice simply because he's a young kid who is enjoying the process and all the attention, or was there something he didn't like when he was here?  Either way, you're going to have to hold your breath for a while and hope no other program worms its way into his heart.  Gophers lead on him, for now.

SG Josh Oglesby - Cedar Rapids, IA - #36 SG and #119 overall on Rivals.  Oglesby is an interesting one, because depending on the source he's either a pure shooter or a combo guard, and ESPN doesn't have him evaluated at all.  It's also hard to get a read on where he's leaning, because he has apparently loved every school visit he's made (including his visit to Minnesota last weekend), and he hasn't really given anybody a pecking order, outside of his top four:  Minnesota, Iowa, Illinois, and Arizona State - not in any particular order.

He's from the great Corn state, so I'm sure there is part of him that would love to become a Hawkeye and return that school to glory, but have you seen the mess that program is right now?  It seems like a good player with other viable options might shy away, so that's the hope here.  Ryan James of GopherIllustrated.com describes him as "the unselfish marksman" (sounds like a combo guard to me) and he's been called the best shooter in Iowa, which you know has a bunch of kids like Jimmy Chitwood, so that's not exactly faint praise.  He will visit Illinois this weekend and then make his way down the Arizona State the following one, so we should know more by early October.  I do know that the more I read about him, the more I like him.  Seems very Blake Hoffarber-y.

SG Andre Hollins - Memphis, TN - #40 SG and #126 overall by Rivals.  Andre is no relation to incoming Gopher freshman Austin Hollins, but he sounds pretty similar:  a smart player with a good jump shot who can also put it on the floor and drive and plays good defense.  Sign me up.  He's also another nerd, like Moats, who is takes his academics very seriously, which is why he includes Harvard and Stanford in his top 5.  Of course, he also has Ole Miss, so who knows how serious he is about it.

The Gophers are also in his top 5, and he will be making his official visit to the campus this weekend, having previously visited Auburn and Harvard and come away impressed.  He still has future visits to Stanford and Ole Miss coming up and, similar to Oglesby, he has committed to making all of his official visits before making his decision.  His final trip is to Stanford on October 15th, so we won't know more until then.

Also like Oglesby, Hollins is a combo guard but more of a two, so if the Gophers were to miss out on Tharpe and get Hollins (or Oglesby) they would at least have someone capable of running the point along with Devoe and those other two, even if it isn't his #1 skill set position.  It sounds like Andre, his dad, and his coach are all very impressed with Tubby Smith, enough so to get the Gophers in his top five at a late date, and hopefully that will be enough to help pull him to the Gophers.


Now there are a few other guys who could be in play, but these four are pretty clearly the main targets and the main priorities, and they should be.  If all four end up whiffs it could be another mediocre recruiting class for Tubby, and losing Coleman would especially hurt.  So let's not let that happen.  Agreed?  Agreed.

Gopher Hoops Recruiting Update

As I mentioned in yesterday's post, I'm going to take a look at Gopher Basketball recruiting tonight.  After they missed out on Jesperson, Tre Demps, and Uthoff, I relaized I didn't even know if I should be worried or not.  How many other offers were out?  Were they close on anybody?  Seriously, I'm not even sure how many scholarships they have for sure (I think it's 3 for 2011, assuming Mbakwe ends up sticking around).  So let's take a look together.

I am taking these "offer lists" from Rivals.com.  No doubt they have inaccuracies as all recruiting sites do, but they are the one I have a membership to.  The alternative would be to come through all the major sites to try to get the most up-to-date and accurate info, but seriously, I'm not a journalist I'm just bored and own a computer.  So if you want to be more thorough, either do it yourself or go the the Gopher Hole.  They have tons of info over there if you're willing to look for it.

I am not.  And away we go: 

As I said, according to Rivals the Gophers have offers out for 2011 to these players:

-  Joe Coleman - 6-3 SG - Hopkins, MN - #32 SG/#111 overall.  Might as well start with Coleman since as a home town boy he seems to be at the top of the "must get" list.  He's really jumped up in the rankings this year, and it would behoove Tubby to get him to declare as early as possible before more attractive programs get him on their radar.  Right now his other offers are from mid-tier programs, with Iowa State probably the tops, but there's no doubt other teams are starting to take notice since he's basically lit it up every time he's had a chance against top competition.

He's a "natural scorer" and a good athlete who has an improving jump shot, and would be an absolutely terrific addition to the team for 2011 and would be huge to keep the perception up that Tubby "has the borders locked down."  Losing out on Coleman wouldn't be a disaster, but it would certainly shake the foundation, and there would have to be a seriously strong class to keep it from being a major disappointment.

-  Josh Oglesby - 6-5 SG- Cedar Rapids, IA NR/NR - Other than Coleman this is the kid I keep hearing the most about, mainly because he's local-ish and mainly because the Gophers seem to be looking pretty good for him.  He's a combo guard who sounds like he's more SG than PG, but supposedly he has pretty incredible range and is solid with the ball - like a more athletic Blake Hoffarber.  The big wrinkle here is that Iowa just offered him, and there are some who think he's been waiting for that offer.  Either way, there's midwestern teams involved here including Northern Iowa, so I'd say he's a longshot to be a Gopher at best.

-  Naadir Tharpe - 5-11 PG - Wolfeboro, NH - #109 overall - He's not ranked as a PG on Rivals, but ESPN has him as their #8 point guard, and he had some good things to say about Tubby and the Gophers in this article at the Gopher Hole.   I don't know what's going on with my former crush Ryan Boatright since Rivals doesn't list the Gophers as in his consideration set yet GopherIllustrated keeps covering him and Tubby keeps watching him, but if things don't work out with him I'll be just fine with Tharpe.  I think I've been pretty clear that I love me a nice traditional point guard, and Tharpe fits the bill.  In a story on ESPN.com they mention his phenomenal court vision and trademark playmaking skills.  Yes please.

-  Amir Williams - 6-9 C - Beverly Hills, MI - #3 C/#43 overall - He's a highly rated center from Michigan, which means the Gophers chances of landing him are extremely slim, but I'm including him because he still has the Gophers in consideration and it would be pretty freakin' sweet to actually land him.  Of course by in consideration that means they are one of 19 teams he's still considering.  Yes, 19.  Gotta love those odds.

-  Malcolm Brogdon - 6-5 SG - Norcross, GA - #35SG/#115 overall - The next highest ranked player on the list and another wing, I'd peg the Gophers' chances at landing Brogdon at fairly decent since I like Tubby's chances in Georgia.  He's described as smooth and calm on the court and more of a shooter than an athlete, and as such sounds to me rather Devoe Joseph-y;  as such, I 'm a big fan.  However he recently landed an offer from Notre Dame, and when asked what he liked about the Irish he mentioned that the coach said he could "Come in and just play my game.  I wouldn't really be put under any type of rules like a lot of college coaches do."  If that's what he's looking for, stringent Tubby has no shot.


-  Tommie McCune - 6-7 PF - Saginaw, MI - #29PF/#149 overall - The last of the Rivals Top 150 holding an offer from the Gophers, McCune is another Michigan kid so I don't know why Tubby is wasting his time.  I mean, everything sounds good:  athletic, range out to 20 feet, good rebounder, but if he's a Michigan kid he won't get out of the state unless Izzo doesn't want him.  Although I guess with the way that program is going getting their leftovers might now be the worst thing in the world.

-  Devin Coleman - 6-3 SG - Wynnewood, PA - NR/NR - A poor man's Rodney Williams, Coleman is described as an incredible athlete who can get to the rim whenever he wants, but isn't exactly known for his jump shot - which all sounds awfully familiar.  At one point he was favoring Iowa, but recently he has said that Iowa seems awfully far from home and he might prefer some place like Rutgers (which doesn't exactly bode well for the Twin Cities).  Although if your choices are Iowa or Rutgers, Minneapolis has got to look awfully good. 


-  Shelby Moats - 6-8 PF - Waconia, MN - NR/NR -  Behind Joe Coleman and the two PGs I've mentioned Moats is my next biggest wish.  Maybe not all that highly rated right now, but some of his descriptors turn me on:  strong, good outside shot, cerebral, 4.0 GPA, textbook perfect left-handed shot.  Drool.  Apparently he's not that great an athlete and most of his offers come from smarty pants smaller schools (Ivy Leaguers, Bucknell, Lehigh, Holy Cross, etc.) but he sounds like the kind of player who takes a school like that to the next level and makes them a Cinderella threat.  Why couldn't he help do that at the Barn?


So there's your update.  I know there are probably other guys on the radar or whatever, and I will try to do a better job keeping up with all those rumors, but for now here's what you get.  I don't have time to chase down every single link right now.  Maybe you should go do it and stop being such a jerk all the time.