Though being one game over .500 isn't exactly blowing up the league, the Twins had extremely low expectations with a Vegas over/under of 70.5 wins, so being on pace to win something like 84 games represents a substantially better season than expected. One can't help but wonder how they got here, and if we can expect it to last and maybe see some semi-meaningful baseball in September again for the first time in what feels like forever.
The offense has been about what was expected: Team overall OPS is .675, last year it was .713. They're walking a little less and hitting with a little less power so far, but overall nothing out of the ordinary and they've averaged 4.56 runs per game this year compared to 4.41 last year so the offense is fine. It'd be nice for Kurt Suzuki and Kennys Vargas to start hitting, but the offense is fine. The defense has been atrocious as expected, so the improvement must have come from the pitching.
Sure enough, team ERA in 2015 is 4.07, down a half a run from 4.58 last year. Even better, starters' ERA is 4.38, which is 10th worst in the majors but a major upgrade from last year's 5.06 and 2013's 5.26, both dead last in the majors. Twins' relievers sport an ERA of 3.58, in line with 2014's 3.73 and 2013's 3.50, so any improvement has come from the starting pitching. Might as well look at all these guys and see who might actually be, like, good.
PHIL HUGHES: Hughes had a nearly impossible task trying to replicate both a career year and a historic walk/strikeout ratio, but he hasn't come close so far putting up numbers more in line with his Yankee days than last season. He's still controlling walks well and his strikeouts, though down a bit, are at a nice number, but he's getting killed by home runs, allowing 1.91 HRs per 9 innings after allowing just 0.69 last year. The good news is that he's allowing a home run on 15.1% of all his fly balls, which is likely an outlier since it would have been the second worst in the majors among starters with at least 150 innings pitched last season, and I'm pretty sure a Phil Hughes making about his half his starts at Target Field isn't going to end up at that number. He got really lucky about home runs last year (6.2% HR/FB), but his true ability probably lies somewhere in the middle. He probably won't be as good as last year, but he'll be better than he's been thus far.
KYLE GIBSON: Gibson's ERA is down almost a full run from last season, but there are some serious red flags here. His BABIP this year is just .267, below his career average and the league average, and his runners LOB% is 75.8%, which would be a top 30 mark most seasons - both significant indicators of luck. Alarmingly his K/9 has dropped to 2.79 (from 5.37 last year) which is dead last in the majors, and his walks have jumped by 1 per nine innings at the same time to 3.86, 14th worst in the league. He's also allowing a career worst 24% line drive rate and 83.6% contact rate. Seeing as he's shown nothing at all to support his ERA improvement from last season you're looking at a serious regression candidate unless he starts missing some bats.
MIKE PELFREY: The guy who nobody wanted in the rotation except for him and his family, and Pelfrey's put up a 2.63 ERA in five starts, but don't let that fool you - he's still terrible. BABIP is .259, LOB % is 83.3%, and HR/9 is just 0.66 - there's no way this keeps up. Those numbers last season would have ranked 18th, 1st, and 18th - does Pelfrey seem like a Top 20 pitcher to you? I will say this - his 56% ground ball rate is a very good thing and his hard hit ball percentage is just 18.1%, second in the league and probably fluky but not as definitely fluky as his other peripherals I'm not buying yet, but he's throwing a ton more split fingers and sliders and isn't relying as much on the fastball, and somehow he's managed to put more than 2 mph on his fast ball compared to last year. I don't believe in Pelfrey, but I expected this paragraph to be much worse. He may actually end up a decent number 4-5 starter.
TREVOR MAY: Probably the most important of these guys given his youth and potential, May's 4.15 ERA is decent but the good news is he's probably even better than that. His BABIP is high and his LOB % is low. He's putting up a respectable 6.9 K/9 and has reigned in his massive control problems from last year to average just 1.73 walks per nine. His HR numbers are a bit fluky and he should regress there a bit, but as long as he can control his walks he should be solid. We may have something here. Get it? Control his walks? May have something? That's high comedy right there.
TOMMY MILONE: You generally don't expect much from fifth pitchers, but Milone has been more like a seventh or eighth guy so far. Among Twins' pitchers with at least 20 innings pitched he ranks last in walk rate, homer rate, FIP, and xFIP, and his ERA is second worst at 4.76. Perhaps the worst part is that Milone's BABIP is a minuscule .243 and his LOB is over 80%, so he's actually been putting up these horrid stats while getting lucky. Yuck. His control is completely out of hand with 4.37 BB/9, nearly double his career average and he's just giving up a monstrous amount of home runs. Assuming he hasn't lost it he should be better than this but he's never going to be special. A guy with a 87 mph fastball has to be pretty sharp with control and pitch mix, so it certainly is possible he's lost it. Might even work better for the Twins if he has, so they can finally get Alex Meyer up here.
So, kind of a mixed bag. Some guys should be better than they've been, some worse. Probably the kind of thing you'd expect on a team that's right around .500. And hey, maybe they'll stay there. That'd be cool.
Showing posts with label Mike Pelfrey. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Mike Pelfrey. Show all posts
Wednesday, May 6, 2015
Thursday, May 1, 2014
Thursday Thoughts
- So the "big" news of the day in Gopher land is that the Big 10/ACC Challenge match-ups were announced and the Gophers got screwed. No, it's not Florida State for the 12th time, but they ended up getting slated to go on the road to Wake Forest. Despite finishing 7th in the league, the Gophers get last season's 11th place Demon Deacons who are probably going to be even worse. At the same time, the 6th place Hawkeyes get North Carolina, and Illinois and Indiana, who both finished below the Gophers, get much more favorable match-ups in Miami and Pitt, and last place Purdue got a fun match-up in NC State. This is horseshit.
There are 14 Big Ten teams. There are 15 ACC teams. Should be pretty straight forward, although with the realignment I suppose they had some leeway to play with things, but this is bullshit. No chance in hell Purdue, 12th in the Big Ten, should get NC State, who finished tied for 7th. If things were fair, horrible shit box Virginia Tech sits out (not Notre Dame) and based on records you get:
Virginia vs. Michigan
Louisville vs. Wisconsin
Syracuse vs. Michigan State
Duke vs. Nebraska
UNC vs. Ohio State
Pitt vs. Iowa
Clemson vs. Maryland
NC State vs. Minnesota
FSU vs. Illinois
Miami vs. Indiana
Wake vs. Penn State
Georgia Tech vs. Northwestern
Notre Dame vs. Purdue
BC vs. Rutgers
Way better and much more fair. Fucking NCAA Fascist bastards. Wake sucks, and they might even be worse next year. One of their top bench guys is transferring, and they're losing two starters. It's probably not all bad because their two leading scorers are back and they've got some decent young players, but I'm crabby so I'm bitching because the Gophers clearly got screwed because they're looked at as a bottom tier Big Ten program. Maybe they are but shit, you don't have to out of your way to fucking remind me. I need a drink.
- Going with Knob Creek.
- A little more news that might be of interest to Gopher fans is that Naadir Tharpe is transferring from Kansas. You may remember Tharpe from blogs such as this one because at one point he was ranked #90 overall and the #20 point guard in the country and all things pointed to him being a Gopher. If you don't feel like reading back, Tharpe had a two school list of Minnesota and Rutgers and then Rutgers signed Myles Mack so he canceled his official to Rutgers and the Gophers were in the driver's seat. Then Josiah Turner signed with Arizona (which did not work out well - DUI, kicked off team, transfer, reneg on transfer enter NBA draft, not drafted) which meant Kansas didn't have a point guard in their incoming class so they called Tharpe and about five minutes later, without even a visit, he was a Jayhawk. Once again, I don't need to be reminded constantly how the Gopher program ranks nationally. Thanks again, Tum Tum Nairn (who did almost the same thing).
Now, after 3 so so years in which he's made pretty good progress each year (1ppg/1apg to 6ppg/3apg to 9ppg/5apg) he's out. Kansas is fairly loaded at guard, and Tharpe actually lost his starting spot for a few games, but Tharpe is transferring to be closer to his daughter in Massachusetts (I think) who has been having some health issues. I would assume BC, UMass, and any of those Rhode Island schools are in play, and who knows, maybe UCONN. This is a pretty clear case of somebody who deserves a hardship waiver to be immediately eligible. So he's probably 50/50. The NCAA is neat.
- It's been awfully hard to keep up with the Twins this year considering they never seem to play, when they do it's almost always day games, my vpn trick to make mlb.com think I'm in California so I can watch their games on my computer has stopped working, and the pitching staff is once again horrible. Who could have possibly predicted that trying to upgrade the starters by signing two mediocre or worse starters and resigning a terrible one wouldn't have worked?
The team's starters post an ERA of 6.08, a WHIP of 1.64, a FIP of 4.74, and a xFIP of 4.95, numbers that are second worst, worst, second worst, and worst in the majors and this was coming into the day not even accounting for Pelfrey getting destroyed. Every single one of those numbers is worse than last year. Look at this rotation (ERA/FIP/xFIP/WHIP):
They're clawing around .500 thanks to an offense that has been putting up a shocking amount of runs ranking fifth in the majors, but man does that ever feel like fool's gold. Second in the majors in walks (after finishing 7th last season) should hold up and the team likely will keep putting runners on base, but there feels like to much fluky, timely hitting bringing in all those runs especially since they were a bottom six run scoring team last year. Sam Fuld (who I thought was brought in to be a fifth/sixth outfielder, not an every day starter), Trevor Plouffe, and Chris Colabello are all probably playing way over their heads, and I find it unlikely that Brian Dozier really has the kind of power he's showing so far. Now Joe Mauer and Aaron Hicks should probably be better than they're showing (can you believe Chris Herrmann pinch hit for Hicks today? Talk about a career low point) so it could kind of even out a bit, but if this team's going to do anything it's with pitching. And this pitching sucks. At least
- The Kentucky Derby is this weekend, and I'm always big fan and have given you jerks picks each of the last four years. Four years ago I hit Super Saver and two years ago my wife picked the winner with I'll Have Another, so you know what that means - I'm practically guaranteed to pick the winning horse.
My favorite bet is Intense Holiday at 16/1. He fits the profile of your typical derby winner - solid year at age 2 with improvement at age 3. He's also one of the best closers in the field. If he can stay middle of the pack for most of the race he should be able to make a late charge. Like this horse a lot. Also put down on Danza at 9/1 and Medal Count at 25/1. Danza is coming in hot and is a fast horse, but also has a lot of stamina in his pedigree, could very well be a wire to wire winner. Medal Count is similar to Danza in that he has a lot of stamina, but similar to Intense Holiday in that his best bet is to win with a late charge because he's not as fast as Danza. Long shot to win but I'll take a closer with stamina at 25/1. My kids chose Candy Boy (25/1) because hey, candy, and the wife went with Vicar's in Trouble because "he sounds British." So there you go. I'll probably do some kind of trifecta or exacta or something with my three horses and one of the front runners. Looking to win big this year.
BOATLOADS!
(ended up doing an trifecta box with Danza, Intense Holiday, California Chrome, Commanding Curve, and Wildcat Red)
There are 14 Big Ten teams. There are 15 ACC teams. Should be pretty straight forward, although with the realignment I suppose they had some leeway to play with things, but this is bullshit. No chance in hell Purdue, 12th in the Big Ten, should get NC State, who finished tied for 7th. If things were fair, horrible shit box Virginia Tech sits out (not Notre Dame) and based on records you get:
Virginia vs. Michigan
Louisville vs. Wisconsin
Syracuse vs. Michigan State
Duke vs. Nebraska
UNC vs. Ohio State
Pitt vs. Iowa
Clemson vs. Maryland
NC State vs. Minnesota
FSU vs. Illinois
Miami vs. Indiana
Wake vs. Penn State
Georgia Tech vs. Northwestern
Notre Dame vs. Purdue
BC vs. Rutgers
Way better and much more fair. Fucking NCAA Fascist bastards. Wake sucks, and they might even be worse next year. One of their top bench guys is transferring, and they're losing two starters. It's probably not all bad because their two leading scorers are back and they've got some decent young players, but I'm crabby so I'm bitching because the Gophers clearly got screwed because they're looked at as a bottom tier Big Ten program. Maybe they are but shit, you don't have to out of your way to fucking remind me. I need a drink.
- Going with Knob Creek.
- A little more news that might be of interest to Gopher fans is that Naadir Tharpe is transferring from Kansas. You may remember Tharpe from blogs such as this one because at one point he was ranked #90 overall and the #20 point guard in the country and all things pointed to him being a Gopher. If you don't feel like reading back, Tharpe had a two school list of Minnesota and Rutgers and then Rutgers signed Myles Mack so he canceled his official to Rutgers and the Gophers were in the driver's seat. Then Josiah Turner signed with Arizona (which did not work out well - DUI, kicked off team, transfer, reneg on transfer enter NBA draft, not drafted) which meant Kansas didn't have a point guard in their incoming class so they called Tharpe and about five minutes later, without even a visit, he was a Jayhawk. Once again, I don't need to be reminded constantly how the Gopher program ranks nationally. Thanks again, Tum Tum Nairn (who did almost the same thing).
Now, after 3 so so years in which he's made pretty good progress each year (1ppg/1apg to 6ppg/3apg to 9ppg/5apg) he's out. Kansas is fairly loaded at guard, and Tharpe actually lost his starting spot for a few games, but Tharpe is transferring to be closer to his daughter in Massachusetts (I think) who has been having some health issues. I would assume BC, UMass, and any of those Rhode Island schools are in play, and who knows, maybe UCONN. This is a pretty clear case of somebody who deserves a hardship waiver to be immediately eligible. So he's probably 50/50. The NCAA is neat.
- It's been awfully hard to keep up with the Twins this year considering they never seem to play, when they do it's almost always day games, my vpn trick to make mlb.com think I'm in California so I can watch their games on my computer has stopped working, and the pitching staff is once again horrible. Who could have possibly predicted that trying to upgrade the starters by signing two mediocre or worse starters and resigning a terrible one wouldn't have worked?
The team's starters post an ERA of 6.08, a WHIP of 1.64, a FIP of 4.74, and a xFIP of 4.95, numbers that are second worst, worst, second worst, and worst in the majors and this was coming into the day not even accounting for Pelfrey getting destroyed. Every single one of those numbers is worse than last year. Look at this rotation (ERA/FIP/xFIP/WHIP):
- Ricky Nolasco: 6.67/5.36/4.32/1.75
- Phil Hughes: 5.14/3.42/3.72/1.39
- Kevin Correia: 7.33/4.21/5.24/1.67
- Mike Pelfrey: 7.32/8.22/6.87/1.88
- Kyle Gibson: 4.34/3.55/4.79/1.55
As Ian Malcolm once said, "that is one big pile of shit." Gibson's the only one who has looked halfway decent but his last two outings have been pretty bad and I fear his hot start was mostly fluky. Hughes has been far and away the second best starter on this team so far. Phil Hughes! The good news is most of these guys aren't quite as bad as they've looked since with one exception their FIPs and xFIPS are lower than their ERA, which suggests that either luck or bad defense is making things worse and considering the team's horrendous corner outfielders it could be that, but they aren't suddenly going to get better. The bad news is that Mike Pelfrey might actually be worse than he's looked. Worse!
They're clawing around .500 thanks to an offense that has been putting up a shocking amount of runs ranking fifth in the majors, but man does that ever feel like fool's gold. Second in the majors in walks (after finishing 7th last season) should hold up and the team likely will keep putting runners on base, but there feels like to much fluky, timely hitting bringing in all those runs especially since they were a bottom six run scoring team last year. Sam Fuld (who I thought was brought in to be a fifth/sixth outfielder, not an every day starter), Trevor Plouffe, and Chris Colabello are all probably playing way over their heads, and I find it unlikely that Brian Dozier really has the kind of power he's showing so far. Now Joe Mauer and Aaron Hicks should probably be better than they're showing (can you believe Chris Herrmann pinch hit for Hicks today? Talk about a career low point) so it could kind of even out a bit, but if this team's going to do anything it's with pitching. And this pitching sucks. At least
- The Kentucky Derby is this weekend, and I'm always big fan and have given you jerks picks each of the last four years. Four years ago I hit Super Saver and two years ago my wife picked the winner with I'll Have Another, so you know what that means - I'm practically guaranteed to pick the winning horse.
My favorite bet is Intense Holiday at 16/1. He fits the profile of your typical derby winner - solid year at age 2 with improvement at age 3. He's also one of the best closers in the field. If he can stay middle of the pack for most of the race he should be able to make a late charge. Like this horse a lot. Also put down on Danza at 9/1 and Medal Count at 25/1. Danza is coming in hot and is a fast horse, but also has a lot of stamina in his pedigree, could very well be a wire to wire winner. Medal Count is similar to Danza in that he has a lot of stamina, but similar to Intense Holiday in that his best bet is to win with a late charge because he's not as fast as Danza. Long shot to win but I'll take a closer with stamina at 25/1. My kids chose Candy Boy (25/1) because hey, candy, and the wife went with Vicar's in Trouble because "he sounds British." So there you go. I'll probably do some kind of trifecta or exacta or something with my three horses and one of the front runners. Looking to win big this year.
BOATLOADS!
(ended up doing an trifecta box with Danza, Intense Holiday, California Chrome, Commanding Curve, and Wildcat Red)
Tuesday, December 17, 2013
Tuesday Talkers
I hate this time of year. Not because of Christmas because I love Christmas because hey, no work, but because there's so little going on. College basketball is just so slow. There might be an interesting game or two, but in general it's pretty boring. And next week is even worse with Christmas and stuff. I have no idea why college kids can't play basketball over Christmas week. I doubt they like their families anyway. So since I have nothing else to write about and I just did a movie blog, here's just some stuff.
- Things should be a bit more entertaining when Rutgers joins the Big 10 than previously hoped. Not because they're any good, because they're still pretty terrible at 5-7 this year (with a loss to William & Mary!) but because former Hoya Greg Whittington has committed to play for the Scarlet Knights after getting kicked off the team at Georgetown. Whittington is a solid player who averaged 12 points and 7 rebounds per game for Georgetown last season before being ruled ineligible. Of course I suppose it's a a question of if he ever actually arrives there considering that being ruled ineligible and then getting kicked off the team, not to mention he's dealing with ACL tear right now. And I don't know when he'd be eligible to play or how many years he'll have left since his circumstances are a bit weird. Hooray for information!
- North Carolina is a fascinating team this year, and I don't just mean because they've beaten Louisville, Michigan State, and Kentucky while losing to Belmont and UAB, although that's pretty crazy in and of itself. I mean because they're playing a completely different style than anyone else in basketball. The average basketball team takes 32.5% of their field goal attempts from behind the 3-point arc, and scores 26% of it's total points on three-pointers. The Tar Heels take just 15.9% of their shots from three, and that shot makes up just 10.7% of their points - both of those are dead last in the NCAA. The team in front of them in % of attempts (Lamar) takes 19.8% of their shots from three, and the team in front of them for % of points from three (Bowling Green) gets 14.3% of their points from deep. So North Carolina ignores the three point shot to at extent that nobody else can even touch, and it's intentional because almost every year under Roy Williams they've ranked in the 330s in those metrics (I had no idea). It's probably a good thing since they shoot under 30% and Marcus Paige is their only halfway reliable shooter, but isn't that weird. I think it's weird. And I'm sharing it with you because you deserve to know weird things that are weird.
- If you're wondering about the Gophers, and I'm sure you are since this is allegedly a Gopher blog, they take 39.6% of their shots from three (48th) and get 32.1% of their points from there (54th), shooting an above average 35.7% (vs. 33.9% national average). These numbers are all up considerably from last season when the Gophers were ranked in the 270s, which makes sense both given the change in roster make up and Pitino's emphasis on the 3-ball. Plus, it's way more fun.
- Semi-Gopher related, but if Rashad Vaughn ends up at Iowa State (I said if!!) he's in for a monster year. Hoiberg gives his guards so much freedom offensively and such little responsibility defensively that he'll end up averaging like 25 a game. I don't know that it's the best thing for his development, but it's not like a bad defensive year will suddenly drop him out of the first round of the draft. I really hope he's a Gopher next season, but I can see the Iowa State appeal no doubt.
- Apparently Miramax is going to be producing a sequel to Rounders and will be turning Good Will Hunting into a television series. These both sound like horrible ideas. Rounders 2 could be good depending on where they take the characters, but for some reason I'm picturing a version of the Hangover with more gambling, and I suppose that could be entertaining even if it isn't necessarily "good" if you know what I mean. The Good Will Hunting series is baffling. I have no idea what they'd even do with it. Hopefully someone smarter than me has that one figured out already.
- Tons of stuff going down in baseball with the winter meetings and everything, way too much to comment on in depth even for me, but I'll tackle a couple things:
- Finally got all subscribed up with Netflix and we started watching Orange is the New Black. Really good show. In a world where I'm having more and more trouble finding new good shows and even some of my old favorites seem to be heading off the rails, it was refreshing to find a show that is both well made and entertaining since there are like 3 of those left. Check it out. It's not Breaking Bad, but what is? Nothing. Nothing is. God such a good show I miss it so much. Magnets, bitch!
- Plus, it brings Amazonian hot Laura Prepon back in my life, which is a solid plus.
- Semi-Gopher related, but it seems Syracuse fans have little to no interest in traveling to Houston for the Texas Bowl against the Gophers. Instead, the fantastic Syracuse blog Troy Nunes is an Absolute Magician is organizing a donation drive among readers/fans to send under privileged Houston area kids to the game for free, with a goal of getting tickets for 200 kids (plus a hotdog, soda, and a freaking Cuse shirt). I don't know if it's the Christmas season or getting older or having my own kids or what, but I thought this was really, really cool. Or maybe it's just the Gopher connection. Let's go with that.
- I love Jay Cutler.
- If you don't know the story behind this, it's here.
- I know the last thing anybody really wants to hear about is someone else's fantasy woes (Jay Cutler would weight in on this one) but indulge me for a moment. Due to Andrew Luck falling off a cliff post Reggie Wayne injury and Alex Smith suddenly lighting the world on fire I benched Luck for Smith two weekends ago in our quarterfinal. Ended up losing by 2 points on Brandon Marshall's last catch Monday night, and would have won easily if I had kept Luck in there. Then I would have won easily this week, so I should be in the championship, but I'm not instead at sitting around like a loser. Fantasy football is really stupid. And so are you.
- I took this quiz and got 198/200 (missed Tony Allen and Brian Scalabrine). I feel both proud and slightly embarrassed.
- Good news for the Gophers, Florida State absolutely crushed Charlotte tonight. The same Charlotte squad who beat Michigan earlier this year, and, with a certainly possible good year in a weak Conference USA, could end up a top 100 RPI team. Thus, since Florida State beats them and the Gophers beat Florida State through osmosis that helps the Gophers' RPI. Or something. I don't know. I'm not that bright.
- I was gonna right more but first I got distracted by Orange is the New Black and then I realized I really hate you.
- Things should be a bit more entertaining when Rutgers joins the Big 10 than previously hoped. Not because they're any good, because they're still pretty terrible at 5-7 this year (with a loss to William & Mary!) but because former Hoya Greg Whittington has committed to play for the Scarlet Knights after getting kicked off the team at Georgetown. Whittington is a solid player who averaged 12 points and 7 rebounds per game for Georgetown last season before being ruled ineligible. Of course I suppose it's a a question of if he ever actually arrives there considering that being ruled ineligible and then getting kicked off the team, not to mention he's dealing with ACL tear right now. And I don't know when he'd be eligible to play or how many years he'll have left since his circumstances are a bit weird. Hooray for information!
- North Carolina is a fascinating team this year, and I don't just mean because they've beaten Louisville, Michigan State, and Kentucky while losing to Belmont and UAB, although that's pretty crazy in and of itself. I mean because they're playing a completely different style than anyone else in basketball. The average basketball team takes 32.5% of their field goal attempts from behind the 3-point arc, and scores 26% of it's total points on three-pointers. The Tar Heels take just 15.9% of their shots from three, and that shot makes up just 10.7% of their points - both of those are dead last in the NCAA. The team in front of them in % of attempts (Lamar) takes 19.8% of their shots from three, and the team in front of them for % of points from three (Bowling Green) gets 14.3% of their points from deep. So North Carolina ignores the three point shot to at extent that nobody else can even touch, and it's intentional because almost every year under Roy Williams they've ranked in the 330s in those metrics (I had no idea). It's probably a good thing since they shoot under 30% and Marcus Paige is their only halfway reliable shooter, but isn't that weird. I think it's weird. And I'm sharing it with you because you deserve to know weird things that are weird.
- If you're wondering about the Gophers, and I'm sure you are since this is allegedly a Gopher blog, they take 39.6% of their shots from three (48th) and get 32.1% of their points from there (54th), shooting an above average 35.7% (vs. 33.9% national average). These numbers are all up considerably from last season when the Gophers were ranked in the 270s, which makes sense both given the change in roster make up and Pitino's emphasis on the 3-ball. Plus, it's way more fun.
- Semi-Gopher related, but if Rashad Vaughn ends up at Iowa State (I said if!!) he's in for a monster year. Hoiberg gives his guards so much freedom offensively and such little responsibility defensively that he'll end up averaging like 25 a game. I don't know that it's the best thing for his development, but it's not like a bad defensive year will suddenly drop him out of the first round of the draft. I really hope he's a Gopher next season, but I can see the Iowa State appeal no doubt.
- Apparently Miramax is going to be producing a sequel to Rounders and will be turning Good Will Hunting into a television series. These both sound like horrible ideas. Rounders 2 could be good depending on where they take the characters, but for some reason I'm picturing a version of the Hangover with more gambling, and I suppose that could be entertaining even if it isn't necessarily "good" if you know what I mean. The Good Will Hunting series is baffling. I have no idea what they'd even do with it. Hopefully someone smarter than me has that one figured out already.
- Tons of stuff going down in baseball with the winter meetings and everything, way too much to comment on in depth even for me, but I'll tackle a couple things:
- The Twins signed Phil Hughes, Ricky Nolasco, and Mike Pelfrey and are still chasing Bronson Arroyo. I read one comment along the lines of, "I've never seen a team retool by chasing so much mediocrity" and that may be true, but mediocrity is a huge upgrade for this team. Twins' starters had an ERA of 5.26 last season, worst in the majors by nearly half a run (0.45 to be precise). They were the second worst in 2012 with an ERA of 5.40, better than only the Rockies. 2011? Fifth worst at 4.64. From 2011-2013 Twins' starters' ERA was 5.08, worst in the majors. So yeah, Hughes, Nolasco, Pelfrey, and Arroyo might be mediocre, but they almost can't be worse than what they've been trotting out there. Right? RIGHT?
- Jason Kubel is back with the Twins, and that's cool because he was always one of my favorites and I even had a Kubel shirt which I have since gotten rid of (waa waa). He signed a minor league contract with an invite to spring training, and it surprised me they got him so cheap. Yes he was brutal last year, but in 2012 he hit 30 homers and OPS+ed 120. He's become even more useless against lefties, but he should be a solid platoon player against right handed pitchers. Considering Doumit hits lefties pretty well that could be a pretty good DH combo. Of course there's no chance of that actually happening because Gardy.
- Speaking of the AL Central, I am really not liking what the White Sox are doing. Everyone has ranked them for years as having the worst farm system, so the thought was they'd be terrible for like a decade and that made me smile because fuck the White Sox, right? Well now all of a sudden they've acquired a young promising outfielder in Avisail Garica, a young promising outfielder in Adam Eaton, a young promising third baseman in Matt Davidson, and the latest big swinging Cuban in 1B/DH guy Jose Abreu. The pitching is still a huge question mark behind Chris Sale, but I liked it better when Kenny Williams was burning the team down by trading away all youth and trying to fix problems by throwing money at them. I can't remember this new guys name but he's been making a lot of mostly under the radar, smart moves and I don't like it one bit. Now, with the two new guys, Alejandro de Aza is suddenly available, and this stupid guy will probably do something smart with him. Sucks.
- By the way, Eaton is 5-8 and describes himself as "gritty dirt bag" kind of player. So that should be a blast. Hawk will probably have an orgasm on the air at some point.
- Finally got all subscribed up with Netflix and we started watching Orange is the New Black. Really good show. In a world where I'm having more and more trouble finding new good shows and even some of my old favorites seem to be heading off the rails, it was refreshing to find a show that is both well made and entertaining since there are like 3 of those left. Check it out. It's not Breaking Bad, but what is? Nothing. Nothing is. God such a good show I miss it so much. Magnets, bitch!
- Plus, it brings Amazonian hot Laura Prepon back in my life, which is a solid plus.
- Semi-Gopher related, but it seems Syracuse fans have little to no interest in traveling to Houston for the Texas Bowl against the Gophers. Instead, the fantastic Syracuse blog Troy Nunes is an Absolute Magician is organizing a donation drive among readers/fans to send under privileged Houston area kids to the game for free, with a goal of getting tickets for 200 kids (plus a hotdog, soda, and a freaking Cuse shirt). I don't know if it's the Christmas season or getting older or having my own kids or what, but I thought this was really, really cool. Or maybe it's just the Gopher connection. Let's go with that.
- I love Jay Cutler.
- If you don't know the story behind this, it's here.
- I know the last thing anybody really wants to hear about is someone else's fantasy woes (Jay Cutler would weight in on this one) but indulge me for a moment. Due to Andrew Luck falling off a cliff post Reggie Wayne injury and Alex Smith suddenly lighting the world on fire I benched Luck for Smith two weekends ago in our quarterfinal. Ended up losing by 2 points on Brandon Marshall's last catch Monday night, and would have won easily if I had kept Luck in there. Then I would have won easily this week, so I should be in the championship, but I'm not instead at sitting around like a loser. Fantasy football is really stupid. And so are you.
- I took this quiz and got 198/200 (missed Tony Allen and Brian Scalabrine). I feel both proud and slightly embarrassed.
- Good news for the Gophers, Florida State absolutely crushed Charlotte tonight. The same Charlotte squad who beat Michigan earlier this year, and, with a certainly possible good year in a weak Conference USA, could end up a top 100 RPI team. Thus, since Florida State beats them and the Gophers beat Florida State through osmosis that helps the Gophers' RPI. Or something. I don't know. I'm not that bright.
- I was gonna right more but first I got distracted by Orange is the New Black and then I realized I really hate you.
Tuesday, June 4, 2013
Fun with Nerd Stats
I was doing some work in Excel on my data and formulas for player props, and came across some interesting stats that I found interesting. So look:
- B.J. Upton is having an absolutely terrible year, and a big reason is pop-ups. Upton has a major league worst 30.2% in-field fly ball rate with 13 pop-ups in 192 plate appearances, a big reason why his BABIP is so low at just .208. Upton is also striking out 33.9% of the time, which means 64.1% of his plate appearances end with him having zero chance of getting on base. So if every Upton ground ball and fly ball managed to find a hole and he hit 1.000 on those, he'd still only be hitting .360. That's preposterous. Also from a Twins' perspective Josh Willingham's pop-up rate of 22.4% and K rate of 26.4% are a pretty bad combo too. He needs to get it together so they can trade him this summer for something halfway decent.
- There are 8 players who have yet to pop out this year, and they range from slap hitters (Ruben Tejada, Jose Altuve, Howie Kendrick), awesome hitters (Joey Votto, Mike Trout), really shocking guys who you'd think popped out every five minutes (Ryan Howard), guys I've never heard of (Jason Castro), and asians (Shin-Soo Choo).
- The following players have more walks than strikeouts so far this year: Dustin Pedroia, Coco Crisp, Marco Scutaro, and Norichika Aoki. That is an epically annoying group of players.
- Ervin Santana (13/13), Dan Haren (12/9), and Kevin Correia (13/12) are all contenders for the Bronson Arroyo Memorial Club of pitchers who give up more homers than walks in a season, but if anyone is a lock to join the group it's got to be Bartolo Colon with 7 homers and 4 walks allowed so far. It seems he's decided to absolutely not walk anybody this year, and if history holds and he makes around 30 starts he should give up around 20 homers. At his current walk rate he'll come in under that, but who knows if it will hold? He's never walked this few batters in his career, but it seems to be working for him so far (3.33 ERA, 3.34 FIP). Maybe even crazier? He's only had a single 3-0 count this entire season.
- Fastest average fastball velocity for any starter is Stephen Strasburg at 95.4 mph with the slowest 81.1 mph by R.A. Dicky (slowest non-gimmick pitcher FB is Barry Zito at 83.4). Fastest average fastball period goes to Detroit's Bruce Rondon at 99.3 mph (Aroldis Chapman is fourth at 97.1). Glen Perkins throws the fastest heater of any Twin at 94.5 mph, with the team's hardest throwing starter, Mike Pelfrey, averages 91.8 mph and every single thing I wrote in that last sentence is totally gross.
- More Twins stuff:
- Shin-Soo Choo completely crushes fastballs, Carlos Gomez (Snacks -> hi) kills the curve, while Chris Davis smokes sliders (Willingham is second here) and Evan Longoria owns the change-up (followed by Carlos Gonzalez and Troy Tulowitzki which is notable because all three are on $nake and I's fantasy team). On the flip side, fastballs confuse Ruben Tejada, John Buck is owned by the curve, Nelson Cruz can't hit a slider, and Matt Wieters is always fooled by a change.
- Lastly, the best heater in the bigs goes to Cliff Lee (Clayton Kershaw runner-up), best curve to Adam Wainwright (A.J. Burnett) - neither a big surprise, best slider belongs to Yu Darvish (Justin Masterson), best change to Marco Estrada (Cole Hamels), best cutter to Travis Wood (Clay Buchholz), and best splitter (people still throw this?) to Hisashi Iwakuma (Ryan Dempster) and no, not many people throw it.
- B.J. Upton is having an absolutely terrible year, and a big reason is pop-ups. Upton has a major league worst 30.2% in-field fly ball rate with 13 pop-ups in 192 plate appearances, a big reason why his BABIP is so low at just .208. Upton is also striking out 33.9% of the time, which means 64.1% of his plate appearances end with him having zero chance of getting on base. So if every Upton ground ball and fly ball managed to find a hole and he hit 1.000 on those, he'd still only be hitting .360. That's preposterous. Also from a Twins' perspective Josh Willingham's pop-up rate of 22.4% and K rate of 26.4% are a pretty bad combo too. He needs to get it together so they can trade him this summer for something halfway decent.
- There are 8 players who have yet to pop out this year, and they range from slap hitters (Ruben Tejada, Jose Altuve, Howie Kendrick), awesome hitters (Joey Votto, Mike Trout), really shocking guys who you'd think popped out every five minutes (Ryan Howard), guys I've never heard of (Jason Castro), and asians (Shin-Soo Choo).
- The following players have more walks than strikeouts so far this year: Dustin Pedroia, Coco Crisp, Marco Scutaro, and Norichika Aoki. That is an epically annoying group of players.
- Ervin Santana (13/13), Dan Haren (12/9), and Kevin Correia (13/12) are all contenders for the Bronson Arroyo Memorial Club of pitchers who give up more homers than walks in a season, but if anyone is a lock to join the group it's got to be Bartolo Colon with 7 homers and 4 walks allowed so far. It seems he's decided to absolutely not walk anybody this year, and if history holds and he makes around 30 starts he should give up around 20 homers. At his current walk rate he'll come in under that, but who knows if it will hold? He's never walked this few batters in his career, but it seems to be working for him so far (3.33 ERA, 3.34 FIP). Maybe even crazier? He's only had a single 3-0 count this entire season.
- Fastest average fastball velocity for any starter is Stephen Strasburg at 95.4 mph with the slowest 81.1 mph by R.A. Dicky (slowest non-gimmick pitcher FB is Barry Zito at 83.4). Fastest average fastball period goes to Detroit's Bruce Rondon at 99.3 mph (Aroldis Chapman is fourth at 97.1). Glen Perkins throws the fastest heater of any Twin at 94.5 mph, with the team's hardest throwing starter, Mike Pelfrey, averages 91.8 mph and every single thing I wrote in that last sentence is totally gross.
- More Twins stuff:
- Best Fastball (by results/value): Perkins
- Worst Fastball: Pelfrey
- Best Curve: Ryan Pressly
- Worst Curve: Scott Diamond
- Best Slider: Pressly
- Worst Slider: Perkins
- Best Change-Up: Jared Burton
- Worst Change: Pedro Hernandez
- Casey Fien and Josh Roenicke also have very good cutters, while Vance Worley has one that is completely god awful
- Best Fastball Hitter: Joe Mauer (and it's not even close - he crushes fastballs - runnerup: Eduardo Escobar)
- Best Curveball Hitter: Mauer (Trevor Plouffe)
- Best Slider Hitter: Josh Willingham (Plouffe)
- Best Change-Up Hitter: Mauer (Oswaldo Arcia)
- Most Aggressive Hitter: Wilkin Ramirez (runner up: Arcia)
- Best Eye: Brian Dozier (Jamey Carroll)
- Best Baserunner: Pedro Florimon (Aaron Hicks)
- Worst Baserunner: Plouffe (Chris Parmelee)
- Best Fielder: Justin Morneau (Florimon)
- Worst Fielder: Plouffe (Hicks - advanced stats have his range as terrible, advanced fielding stats still suck)
- Shin-Soo Choo completely crushes fastballs, Carlos Gomez (Snacks -> hi) kills the curve, while Chris Davis smokes sliders (Willingham is second here) and Evan Longoria owns the change-up (followed by Carlos Gonzalez and Troy Tulowitzki which is notable because all three are on $nake and I's fantasy team). On the flip side, fastballs confuse Ruben Tejada, John Buck is owned by the curve, Nelson Cruz can't hit a slider, and Matt Wieters is always fooled by a change.
- Lastly, the best heater in the bigs goes to Cliff Lee (Clayton Kershaw runner-up), best curve to Adam Wainwright (A.J. Burnett) - neither a big surprise, best slider belongs to Yu Darvish (Justin Masterson), best change to Marco Estrada (Cole Hamels), best cutter to Travis Wood (Clay Buchholz), and best splitter (people still throw this?) to Hisashi Iwakuma (Ryan Dempster) and no, not many people throw it.
Monday, December 17, 2012
Monday Musings
Are you in the mood to read 1,537 words? Actually more now since I'm writing this introduction? You are? Oh good. Because here they come.
- We've written about the Span trade, the Revere trade, and the Correia signing here already so I suppose I should put something to figurative paper about the Mike Pelfrey signing but I am struggling so hard to care.
I guess I'm in favor simply because it's mirroring what my strategy would be with this team: trade everyone with value, get as many prospects as you can, fill holes for this year with short, cheap contracts, and plan for 2014. Signing Correia and Pelfrey does that, although giving Correia a second year is pretty mind-boggling. Pelfrey should be a better pitcher than Correia (not saying much), but he's coming off Tommy John surgery so your mileage may vary.
Pelfrey is a former first round pick who has been thoroughly mediocre in his career (similarity scores at his age - 29 - put him like a Carl Pavano or Jake Westbrook at that age: ok, but not necessarily good. A one year, $4 million dollar contract is a pretty good deal for him, especially because he's coming off Tommy John surgery which these days seems to make players better. If he can get back to his mediocre ways or even slightly better - put up like a high 3s/low 4s ERA - he could end up being a good piece to trade at the deadline. I'm realizing now I'm pretty obsessed with trading anything and everything of value and throwing in the towel this year. And it's December. Gonna be a fun season. I do like the Rule 5 Ryan Pressly pick-up though. Probably I could write about that and actually sound positive, but I'm not going to. Although I will mention that I saw on MLB.com where they list each team's top 20 prospects that Pressly slots in at #17, so that's probably good, right?
- What in the world is going on with the value of top prospects these days? The Phillies send their #1 prospect to the Twins for Ben Revere. The Royals send their top prospect (and #3 in all of baseball) away for James Shields, while the D-Backs ship out their #1 (and #5 overall) for good fielding no hitting shortstop prospect and a middle reliever. Now the Jays are trading their #1 (#11 overall) and #3 (#83) for R.A. Dickey who, rumor has it, is 38. It's starting to look like teams are looking more or more for when they have their "window" and just going for it, and since it's not just one team but multiple this may be the new trend. The Phillies will have Revere for a while and the D-Backs got back a guy they hope is their SS for many years, but both the Royals and Jays are clearly going for it now, acquiring players who won't be on the team in 3 years.
The famous Doyle Alexander for John Smoltz trade worked out well for both team's and I'm guessing both organizations would do it again if they traveled back in time, but generally there's a pretty clear winner and loser in these types of deals. If the Jays and Royals can get back to the playoffs for the first time in 20+ years even once you can probably say they made the right move, if not they payed an awfully steep price for the same results they'd have gotten anyway, but with a dash of disappointment mixed in. That is, of course, assuming the prospects work out which is pretty much a given since they always do.
- Speaking of baseball transactions the one time that isn't doing anything that baffles me is the Baltimore Orioles. Yeah, there was an awfully lot of luck on their side to make the playoffs, but they made them and clearly needed to make some upgrades if they want to get back, but they aren't doing much of anything. So far their biggest moves are claiming Alexei Casilla, trading Robert Andino to Seattle for Trayvon Robinson (note: I have no idea who this is), and re-signing Lew Ford to a minor league deal. They need a corner OFer, a 1B after letting Mark Reynolds walk, a second baseman since Brian Roberts is always hurt and I'm pretty sure Casilla isn't the answer, and starting pitching help because Chen/Hammel/Gonzalez/Tillman/Britton is not going to get you into the playoffs again. Also I just noticed that their designated hitter right now is Wilson Betemit - I mean these guys need some help.
I have no idea why they aren't after Swisher or LaRoche, not to mention Edwin Jackson or trying to at least work a trade with somebody like the Dodgers who have too many pitchers or figuring out something at 2b, even if it's just signing someone shitty like Kelly Johnson (he's better than Casilla). Then again who knows, maybe they're smarter than me and waiting for the market to settle a bit and going after bargains. They have plenty of young arms that could get decent pieces back to plug into the roster, but they've barely even been mentioned in rumors as far as doing anything that a whole bunch of waiver claims and minor league deals and getting rebuffed by Nate freaking Schierholz. I don't get it. If Baltimore's front office thinks they're in a place to compete again this year they're in for a big ole face slap. Prime candidate to take the UNDER on wins once those wagers are released.
- You know how two of our reader's (Loretta08 from Sippin' on Purple and Bear) hate hate hate Kevin O'Neill and consider him bar none the worst coach in NCAAB? I agree he's pretty awful, but without question Bruce Weber is the worst. The dude did nothing but underachieve at Illinois (after finishing national runner-up with Bill Self's players), including famously refusing to recruit a point guard instead content to force shooting guards to play out of position (first Demetri McCamey, then Brandon Paul) with mostly disastrous results and now he's screwing up Kansas State as well. The Wildcats made the second round of the NCAA Tournament last year under Frank Martin and have basically the same team back. They were ranked 37th in the AP Preseason Poll and 30th in the ESPN poll, while the Big 12 coaches picked them to finish 5th in the conference and I ranked them as the 33rd best team in the country. So decent.
Now I readily admit there's nothing particularly damning here at 7-2. Their only two losses are to Michigan and Gonzaga (and Gonzaga just killed them), but looking deeper it's just empty. They barely beat a bad Delaware team and a horrible George Washington team, and two of their wins are over a non-D1 team and USC Upstate who is basically a non-D1 team. They still might end up in the race for an NCAA bid because don't forget these are Frank Martin's players, but the end for this program is on the horizon. Mark my words, in 2-3 years this program will be back in the depths of anonymity because BRUCE WEBER IS AWFUL. Truth.
- It feels a bit weird writing all these words and not talking about the Gophers since I'm supposed to be a Gopher blog, but I live-blogged the last game so every thought I had that night (and many I didn't) has already been written. Instead, real quick, I wanted to take a look and compare this year's Gopher team to the one from 1996-1997 which made the Final Four (yes, they did).
Both teams were coming off NIT seasons with minimal personnel losses from the prior year (1996 team lost only David Grim) and nothing in the way of impact freshmen coming in (that was the Loge/Sanden/Archambeau class - thanks dick). Both had success in an early season tournament. Both came into Big Ten play with just 1 loss (1996 loss was at Alabama, a team that would fail to make either the NIT or NCAA Tournament). That team was ranked in the top 10 for the first time following the January 11th game against Michigan. That year's Big Ten was much weaker than this year's version, with only Indiana (x2), Michigan (x2), and Illinois ranked at the time the Gophers played them and none ranked higher than 15th. The Gophers were clearly the class of the league in 1996 as shown by winning the conference with a 16-2 record. This year's team is going to be in a much tougher conference. I remember thinking that team was special after the win @ Indiana, and I'm already thinking this year's team is special. Seriously, I can barely handle waiting for that New Year's Eve day game. We're going to learn so much.
- Since I know you're dying for an update I made the semi-finals in both my important Pretend Football leagues and lost both, despite having the highest scoring team in both leagues this year, by scoring the fewest points either team put up all year thanks to having Ray Rice, Demaryious Thomas, and Hakeem Nicks in both leagues. I hate that stupid fake sport. I quit.
- We've written about the Span trade, the Revere trade, and the Correia signing here already so I suppose I should put something to figurative paper about the Mike Pelfrey signing but I am struggling so hard to care.
 |
| This adequately expresses my feelings. |
Pelfrey is a former first round pick who has been thoroughly mediocre in his career (similarity scores at his age - 29 - put him like a Carl Pavano or Jake Westbrook at that age: ok, but not necessarily good. A one year, $4 million dollar contract is a pretty good deal for him, especially because he's coming off Tommy John surgery which these days seems to make players better. If he can get back to his mediocre ways or even slightly better - put up like a high 3s/low 4s ERA - he could end up being a good piece to trade at the deadline. I'm realizing now I'm pretty obsessed with trading anything and everything of value and throwing in the towel this year. And it's December. Gonna be a fun season. I do like the Rule 5 Ryan Pressly pick-up though. Probably I could write about that and actually sound positive, but I'm not going to. Although I will mention that I saw on MLB.com where they list each team's top 20 prospects that Pressly slots in at #17, so that's probably good, right?
- What in the world is going on with the value of top prospects these days? The Phillies send their #1 prospect to the Twins for Ben Revere. The Royals send their top prospect (and #3 in all of baseball) away for James Shields, while the D-Backs ship out their #1 (and #5 overall) for good fielding no hitting shortstop prospect and a middle reliever. Now the Jays are trading their #1 (#11 overall) and #3 (#83) for R.A. Dickey who, rumor has it, is 38. It's starting to look like teams are looking more or more for when they have their "window" and just going for it, and since it's not just one team but multiple this may be the new trend. The Phillies will have Revere for a while and the D-Backs got back a guy they hope is their SS for many years, but both the Royals and Jays are clearly going for it now, acquiring players who won't be on the team in 3 years.
The famous Doyle Alexander for John Smoltz trade worked out well for both team's and I'm guessing both organizations would do it again if they traveled back in time, but generally there's a pretty clear winner and loser in these types of deals. If the Jays and Royals can get back to the playoffs for the first time in 20+ years even once you can probably say they made the right move, if not they payed an awfully steep price for the same results they'd have gotten anyway, but with a dash of disappointment mixed in. That is, of course, assuming the prospects work out which is pretty much a given since they always do.
- Speaking of baseball transactions the one time that isn't doing anything that baffles me is the Baltimore Orioles. Yeah, there was an awfully lot of luck on their side to make the playoffs, but they made them and clearly needed to make some upgrades if they want to get back, but they aren't doing much of anything. So far their biggest moves are claiming Alexei Casilla, trading Robert Andino to Seattle for Trayvon Robinson (note: I have no idea who this is), and re-signing Lew Ford to a minor league deal. They need a corner OFer, a 1B after letting Mark Reynolds walk, a second baseman since Brian Roberts is always hurt and I'm pretty sure Casilla isn't the answer, and starting pitching help because Chen/Hammel/Gonzalez/Tillman/Britton is not going to get you into the playoffs again. Also I just noticed that their designated hitter right now is Wilson Betemit - I mean these guys need some help.
I have no idea why they aren't after Swisher or LaRoche, not to mention Edwin Jackson or trying to at least work a trade with somebody like the Dodgers who have too many pitchers or figuring out something at 2b, even if it's just signing someone shitty like Kelly Johnson (he's better than Casilla). Then again who knows, maybe they're smarter than me and waiting for the market to settle a bit and going after bargains. They have plenty of young arms that could get decent pieces back to plug into the roster, but they've barely even been mentioned in rumors as far as doing anything that a whole bunch of waiver claims and minor league deals and getting rebuffed by Nate freaking Schierholz. I don't get it. If Baltimore's front office thinks they're in a place to compete again this year they're in for a big ole face slap. Prime candidate to take the UNDER on wins once those wagers are released.
- You know how two of our reader's (Loretta08 from Sippin' on Purple and Bear) hate hate hate Kevin O'Neill and consider him bar none the worst coach in NCAAB? I agree he's pretty awful, but without question Bruce Weber is the worst. The dude did nothing but underachieve at Illinois (after finishing national runner-up with Bill Self's players), including famously refusing to recruit a point guard instead content to force shooting guards to play out of position (first Demetri McCamey, then Brandon Paul) with mostly disastrous results and now he's screwing up Kansas State as well. The Wildcats made the second round of the NCAA Tournament last year under Frank Martin and have basically the same team back. They were ranked 37th in the AP Preseason Poll and 30th in the ESPN poll, while the Big 12 coaches picked them to finish 5th in the conference and I ranked them as the 33rd best team in the country. So decent.
Now I readily admit there's nothing particularly damning here at 7-2. Their only two losses are to Michigan and Gonzaga (and Gonzaga just killed them), but looking deeper it's just empty. They barely beat a bad Delaware team and a horrible George Washington team, and two of their wins are over a non-D1 team and USC Upstate who is basically a non-D1 team. They still might end up in the race for an NCAA bid because don't forget these are Frank Martin's players, but the end for this program is on the horizon. Mark my words, in 2-3 years this program will be back in the depths of anonymity because BRUCE WEBER IS AWFUL. Truth.
 | |
| She hates Bruce Weber too I would assume. |
Both teams were coming off NIT seasons with minimal personnel losses from the prior year (1996 team lost only David Grim) and nothing in the way of impact freshmen coming in (that was the Loge/Sanden/Archambeau class - thanks dick). Both had success in an early season tournament. Both came into Big Ten play with just 1 loss (1996 loss was at Alabama, a team that would fail to make either the NIT or NCAA Tournament). That team was ranked in the top 10 for the first time following the January 11th game against Michigan. That year's Big Ten was much weaker than this year's version, with only Indiana (x2), Michigan (x2), and Illinois ranked at the time the Gophers played them and none ranked higher than 15th. The Gophers were clearly the class of the league in 1996 as shown by winning the conference with a 16-2 record. This year's team is going to be in a much tougher conference. I remember thinking that team was special after the win @ Indiana, and I'm already thinking this year's team is special. Seriously, I can barely handle waiting for that New Year's Eve day game. We're going to learn so much.
- Since I know you're dying for an update I made the semi-finals in both my important Pretend Football leagues and lost both, despite having the highest scoring team in both leagues this year, by scoring the fewest points either team put up all year thanks to having Ray Rice, Demaryious Thomas, and Hakeem Nicks in both leagues. I hate that stupid fake sport. I quit.
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