Welcome Back to the NCAA Tournament

Well the Gophers are back in the NCAA Tournament and I gotta say despite everything else it feels damn good.  I'm also pretty pleased with the 11 seed, because it keeps the Gophers away from the #1s and #2s as long as possible, although a possible second round match-up with Florida would probably be every bit the bloodbath you'd see against a #1 or #2.  I'll be back with a preview of UCLA on Wednesday night (and then will go radio silent (except twitter) until the next week as we take our annual trip to Chicago to watch all the games from the Dayton Bar with Bogart.)  I've also been informed that the Dayton Bar is also an Ole Miss bar so I'm looking forward to watching them hopefully beat the Badgers.

Anyway, here are the toughest things I'm struggling with as a fill out my bracket:

1)  Florida or Georgetown?  There were three teams I wanted to put in the final four for sure:  Louisville, Florida, or Georgetown.  Unfortunately, now I can't do that and need to make a choice between the Gators and Hoyas since they'd play in the Sweet 16 if everything holds.  I love Florida because they have so many weapons and can score inside or out, and they compliment that with great defense.  Georgetown is also an amazing defensive team, and they have Big East Player of the Year Otto Porter who is good enough to carry that offense on his back a la John Wallace or Kemba Walker.  I hate that I have to choose, but I'm going with the Gators.

2)  What do do with Wisconsin.  I hate this.  I was all set to have both Wisconsin (because I hate them) and Kansas State (because they, and Bruce Weber, suck) to lose in the first round, but it all broke wrong.  Wisconsin gets an Ole Miss team who I don't think can compete with them, and Kansas State gets the play-in winner of LaSalle and Boise State, neither of whom is very good at all.  I almost have to take K-State and Wisconsin to both win their first round match-up, and if that happens there's no way K-State can beat the Badgers because Ryan can coach circles around Weber and the Wildcats are perfectly undisciplined enough to fall right into Wisconsin's traps.  So I have Wisconsin in the Sweet 16.  Feels really wrong and icky and dirty, but since they're always the luckiest team in America you can't rule it out.  I'm still rooting against them though.  If you don't it means you hate America.

3)  Who comes out of the West?  In every other region it's come down to one or two difficult decisions between teams I think are good enough to make the Final Four, while in the West I'm decided who is least flawed among the contenders.  Gonzaga and New Mexico are good teams no doubt, but neither has been tested as often or as consistently.  Both have some good non-conference wins of course but Gonzaga ran through a pretty crappy conference and although New Mexico played in a good MWC I just don't know if I'm buying it.  That leaves Ohio State, about whom there are no questions regarding having been tested, but unless their offense continues to be about more than DeShaun Thomas they're going to struggle.  If anything wacky happens I'm betting it's in this region, because there are some really weak teams for their seed (Arizona, K-State, Wisco, etc.).  Right now I'm going to buy the Buckeyes.  The team's offense is coming together with Thomas finding plenty of help, the defense is top-notch as usual, and the coaching is solid.

4)  Can Louisville Survive?  I think the Cardinals are the best team in the NCAA and my pick to win it all, but holy hell is the Midwest Region a bitch.  I consider Oklahoma State, St. Louis, and Michigan State as dark horse Final Four candidates and sure enough, they're all here.  The only real saving grace is that Duke is the #2 here and Duke sucks so at least they catch a break there.  Even some of the really high seeds (#12 Oregon, #14 Valparaiso) are pretty dangerous.  Whoever gets out of this region is going to have to have done some seriously good work.  Luckily Louisville hits my check list - come in on a high note (not necessarily a conference tournament victory but just playing well), good guards who can make free throws, great defense, and a team who can shoot without being dependent on the 3.  So yeah, despite the tough region Louisville is my champ.

5)  Who upsets Kansas?  I know Kansas has kind of shed that choker label, what with the two Final Fours since 2008 and all, but there's no way this version of Kansas is Final Four bound so the question becomes where do they get bounced?  I'm betting they don't get out of the first weekend with North Carolina knocking them out as one of the toughest 8 seeds I can remember.  I know Carolina has been talked about as being "down" this year and maybe they are with 10 losses, but do you realize their worst loss this year was to Texas?  And after that their worst loss was to Butler?  The rest are 3 losses to Miami, 2 to Duke, and one each to Indiana, Virginia, and NC State which means the Heels don't have a single loss to a team outside of kenpom's top 100 teams.  They're probably a little too perimeter dependent to make a significant run, but they should dispatch Villanova with ease and then in a one-time game against Kansas?  It could happen, kids, it could happen.

6)  How good is Miami? That's an important question, because I don't believe in Indiana and I don't believe in Marquette, which means it's either Miami or Syracuse coming out of the East for me.  I do expect Syracuse to beat the Hoosiers and face the Canes with a Final Four berth on the line, so it becomes a matter if I think Miami is good enough to handle the Cuse.  As it turns out, I think they are.  They're experienced enough to not get rattled and they have the guard play needed to break down the Orange's zone with four guys who are lights out from three, and they play excellent defense, rebound well, and come in off an ACC Tournament Championship.  Their free throw shooting is a bit suspect, but otherwise Miami is another team who looks really, really good and I have them in my Final Four.

That's it for now, back later with a Gophers/UCLA preview.

Monday Musings

 Are you in the mood to read 1,537 words?  Actually more now since I'm writing this introduction?  You are?  Oh good.  Because here they come. 

-  We've written about the Span trade, the Revere trade, and the Correia signing here already so I suppose I should put something to figurative paper about the Mike Pelfrey signing but I am struggling so hard to care. 

This adequately expresses my feelings.

I guess I'm in favor simply because it's mirroring what my strategy would be with this team: trade everyone with value, get as many prospects as you can, fill holes for this year with short, cheap contracts, and plan for 2014.  Signing Correia and Pelfrey does that, although giving Correia a second year is pretty mind-boggling.  Pelfrey should be a better pitcher than Correia (not saying much), but he's coming off Tommy John surgery so your mileage may vary.

Pelfrey is a former first round pick who has been thoroughly mediocre in his career (similarity scores at his age - 29 - put him like a Carl Pavano or Jake Westbrook at that age: ok, but not necessarily good.  A one year, $4 million dollar contract is a pretty good deal for him, especially because he's coming off Tommy John surgery which these days seems to make players better.  If he can get back to his mediocre ways or even slightly better - put up like a high 3s/low 4s ERA - he could end up being a good piece to trade at the deadline.  I'm realizing now I'm pretty obsessed with trading anything and everything of value and throwing in the towel this year.  And it's December.  Gonna be a fun season.  I do like the Rule 5 Ryan Pressly pick-up though.  Probably I could write about that and actually sound positive, but I'm not going to.  Although I will mention that I saw on MLB.com where they list each team's top 20 prospects that Pressly slots in at #17, so that's probably good, right?

-  What in the world is going on with the value of top prospects these days?  The Phillies send their #1 prospect to the Twins for Ben Revere.  The Royals send their top prospect (and #3 in all of baseball) away for James Shields, while the D-Backs ship out their #1 (and #5 overall) for good fielding no hitting shortstop prospect and a middle reliever.  Now the Jays are trading their #1 (#11 overall) and #3 (#83) for R.A. Dickey who, rumor has it, is 38.  It's starting to look like teams are looking more or more for when they have their "window" and just going for it, and since it's not just one team but multiple this may be the new trend.  The Phillies will have Revere for a while and the D-Backs got back a guy they hope is their SS for many years, but both the Royals and Jays are clearly going for it now, acquiring players who won't be on the team in 3 years.

The famous Doyle Alexander for John Smoltz trade worked out well for both team's and I'm guessing both organizations would do it again if they traveled back in time, but generally there's a pretty clear winner and loser in these types of deals.  If the Jays and Royals can get back to the playoffs for the first time in 20+ years even once you can probably say they made the right move, if not they payed an awfully steep price for the same results they'd have gotten anyway, but with a dash of disappointment mixed in.  That is, of course, assuming the prospects work out which is pretty much a given since they always do.

- Speaking of baseball transactions the one time that isn't doing anything that baffles me is the Baltimore Orioles.  Yeah, there was an awfully lot of luck on their side to make the playoffs, but they made them and clearly needed to make some upgrades if they want to get back, but they aren't doing much of anything.  So far their biggest moves are claiming Alexei Casilla, trading Robert Andino to Seattle for Trayvon Robinson (note:  I have no idea who this is), and re-signing Lew Ford to a minor league deal.  They need a corner OFer, a 1B after letting Mark Reynolds walk, a second baseman since Brian Roberts is always hurt and I'm pretty sure Casilla isn't the answer, and starting pitching help because Chen/Hammel/Gonzalez/Tillman/Britton is not going to get you into the playoffs again.  Also I just noticed that their designated hitter right now is Wilson Betemit - I mean these guys need some help.

I have no idea why they aren't after Swisher or LaRoche, not to mention Edwin Jackson or trying to at least work a trade with somebody like the Dodgers who have too many pitchers or figuring out something at 2b, even if it's just signing someone shitty like Kelly Johnson (he's better than Casilla).  Then again who knows, maybe they're smarter than me and waiting for the market to settle a bit and going after bargains.  They have plenty of young arms that could get decent pieces back to plug into the roster, but they've barely even been mentioned in rumors as far as doing anything that a whole bunch of waiver claims and minor league deals and getting rebuffed by Nate freaking Schierholz.  I don't get it.  If Baltimore's front office thinks they're in a place to compete again this year they're in for a big ole face slap.  Prime candidate to take the UNDER on wins once those wagers are released.

-  You know how two of our reader's (Loretta08 from Sippin' on Purple and Bear) hate hate hate Kevin O'Neill and consider him bar none the worst coach in NCAAB?  I agree he's pretty awful, but without question Bruce Weber is the worst.  The dude did nothing but underachieve at Illinois (after finishing national runner-up with Bill Self's players), including famously refusing to recruit a point guard instead content to force shooting guards to play out of position (first Demetri McCamey, then Brandon Paul) with mostly disastrous results and now he's screwing up Kansas State as well.  The Wildcats made the second round of the NCAA Tournament last year under Frank Martin and have basically the same team back.  They were ranked 37th in the AP Preseason Poll and 30th in the ESPN poll, while the Big 12 coaches picked them to finish 5th in the conference and I ranked them as the 33rd best team in the country.   So decent.

Now I readily admit there's nothing particularly damning here at 7-2.  Their only two losses are to Michigan and Gonzaga (and Gonzaga just killed them), but looking deeper it's just empty.  They barely beat a bad Delaware team and a horrible George Washington team, and two of their wins are over a non-D1 team and USC Upstate who is basically a non-D1 team.  They still might end up in the race for an NCAA bid because don't forget these are Frank Martin's players, but the end for this program is on the horizon.  Mark my words, in 2-3 years this program will be back in the depths of anonymity because BRUCE WEBER IS AWFUL.  Truth.

 

She hates Bruce Weber too I would assume.

-  It feels a bit weird writing all these words and not talking about the Gophers since I'm supposed to be a Gopher blog, but I live-blogged the last game so every thought I had that night (and many I didn't) has already been written.  Instead, real quick, I wanted to take a look and compare this year's Gopher team to the one from 1996-1997 which made the Final Four (yes, they did).

Both teams were coming off NIT seasons with minimal personnel losses from the prior year (1996 team lost only David Grim) and nothing in the way of impact freshmen coming in (that was the Loge/Sanden/Archambeau class - thanks dick).  Both had success in an early season tournament.  Both came into Big Ten play with just 1 loss (1996 loss was at Alabama, a team that would fail to make either the NIT or NCAA Tournament).  That team was ranked in the top 10 for the first time following the January 11th game against Michigan.  That year's Big Ten was much weaker than this year's version, with only Indiana (x2), Michigan (x2), and Illinois ranked at the time the Gophers played them and none ranked higher than 15th.  The Gophers were clearly the class of the league in 1996 as shown by winning the conference with a 16-2 record.  This year's team is going to be in a much tougher conference.  I remember thinking that team was special after the win @ Indiana, and I'm already thinking this year's team is special.  Seriously, I can barely handle waiting for that New Year's Eve day game.  We're going to learn so much.

-  Since I know you're dying for an update I made the semi-finals in both my important Pretend Football leagues and lost both, despite having the highest scoring team in both leagues this year, by scoring the fewest points either team put up all year thanks to having Ray Rice, Demaryious Thomas, and Hakeem Nicks in both leagues.  I hate that stupid fake sport.  I quit.

DWG College Hoops Preview: Teams #33-26

Pablo Sandoval hits three home runs.  Barry Zito not only is unhittable, but also knocks in a run against probably the best pitcher of this generation.  Angel Pagan gets a double by hitting a routine bouncer that hits the third base bag.  Tim Lincecum strikes everyone out in a season where he's basically been a pitching machine.  Gregor Blanco can suddenly get to everything.  Call me crazy, but are you getting a vibe that the Giants stole that Cardinal October magic?  Good thing I got in on the Giants to win at +160 already.  I know I said I was going to be rooting for the Tigers and thought they were the better team, but so much money poured in on Detroit that the +160 for the Giants was too juicy to pass up.  Obviously.  Any way, I wrote some more previews while watching the game. 

33. Kansas State Wildcats.  You know, K-State has a pretty good thing going lately and have morphed into one of the most consistently athletic teams in the country year-after-year, and that's not going to change this season.  The Wildcats have most of last year's team back, including eight of their top nine scorers from last season, which means they'll most likely still be a god awful jump-shooting team (unless someone or someones went Eric Harris on it this offseason) but that's ok because they should make up for it, again, by being phenomenal at attacking the basket and grabbing a high percentage of all those bricks they throw up there.   Of course, they just hired Bruce Weber and since we all know a coaching match-up between Weber and paper bag would be a toss-up we can probably expect this nice little run by K-State to fall by the wayside as they descend into mediocrity once again and Weber moves on to destroy yet another program.

32.  St. Mary's Gaels.  I know what you're worrying about, and yes don't worry floppy haired uber Beiber dork Matthew Dellavedova is back for one more year.  And someone tell me if I'm totally crazy, but I'm getting a distinct Steve Nash vibe from this kid.  Think about it.  Floppy hair.  From a foreign country that speaks a weird brand of English.  Under the radar recruit who lands at a WCC school.  Immediate impact as a freshman, then end up getting progressively better, developing into one of the best PGs in the land, and single-handedly leading their team to upsets against bigger (and better) teams.  I really think we're in for a monster year from both Dellavedova and St. Mary's, if only to validate my Nash theory.  But if St. Mary's ends up making the Sweet 16 this year I'd start finding ways to bet YES on things like "Someday Matthew Dellavedova will win two NBA MVP awards."

31.  St. Louis Billikens.  St. Louis has been on a slow build since they hired Rick Majerus, so it'll be interesting to see if is absence (taking a year off for some kind of medical leave) hurts them, because this team has a chance to be very good this year.  It's actually kind of a an interesting case because they only lose one dude from last year's team, but it's the dude that was kind of their leader who did everything (1st in points, 2nd in rebs, 5th in assists, 4th in steals, 1st in FG%, 1st in FT%).  Talent-wise they're pretty loaded, but losing the head coach, the team leader, and now their best returning player, Kwamain Mitchell, is out for six weeks with a broken foot.  I don't know, that seems like a lot to deal with for a team who is supposed to be in good shape for this season.  Kind of makes me think of the Cincinnati Bengals for some reason.

30.  BYU Cougars.  It's always interesting how the Mormon faith impacts college hoops.  There's the scheduling, because BYU can't/won't play on Sundays which impacts the NCAA Tournament.  Brandon Davies got suspended for the season two years ago because he had sex and then admitted it to his coach.  And there's always the random Mormon mission that takes a player off the team mid-way through his career.  This time, however, BYU is actually getting a big boost, because Tyler Haws back.  Two seasons ago Haws averaged 11 points and 4 rebounds per game as a freshman and still has a 48-straight made free throw streak.  Getting a guy back who has already proven he can play is golden, and add Haws to a mix that includes the 6-11 Davies (15 & 8 last year) and point guard Matt Carlino (12 & 5) and BYU won't even miss the loss of a couple of seniors and should have no problem grabbing an NCAA bid.  Assuming everybody keeps their pants on, or at least has the common sense to not go running to their bishop about it.

29.  Drexel Dragons.  You know what's a really sweet team name?  Dragons.  Awesome.  Anyway, the Dragons, who are routinely one of the best defensive squads in the country, are set up for success this year.  The only lose one major contributor off last season's team that set a school record for victories, and with VCU now in the A-10 and Old Dominion ineligible for the conference title since they're bolting to C-USA after this season it's wide open for Drexel to take the league crown.  As I mentioned Drexel is always nails defensively, but last year's edition could actually score some points as well and a Dragon team that can score is pretty scary for somebody in round 1 of the tournament.  Like, scary like that Tiamat five-headed dragon from the Dungeons & Dragons cartoon.  Yes I watched it as a kid and it was awesome.  I also own a DVD with 10 episodes on it, what of it?  No you're the nerd.

28.  Wisconsin Badgers.  Ok, I've learned my lesson.  I don't know if it's my hatred of the Badgers because they're evil (I mean they even wear red, pay attention) or just because they're so boring, but every year I think the Badgers will be horrible and every year I'm wrong.  Look at this season - Jordan Taylor is gone and there isn't a player on the roster who looks like they can replace his production, even by committee.  Jared Berggren and Ryan Evans are the two best players coming back, and Evans should be a six man and Berggren is terrible.  Their top guards are going to be Ben Brust and Josh Gasser and neither of them scares anybody.  But of course, none of that matters.  They're going to play so slow it puts everyone to sleep, bore everyone to death, never turn the ball over, grab all the available rebounds, and win way more games than I'd ever expect.  Just like every year.  It's like an evil version of college basketball Groundhog Day.

27.  Marquette Golden Eagles.  At first when I was ranking teams off the top of my head I think I had Marquette in the 40s or 50s simply because losing both Jae Crowder and Darius Johnson-Odom to the NBA is a crusher, but when I did more reading I realized there is plenty still here to work with (plus counting out Buzz Williams is like counting on Bruce Weber).  Their back court is loaded with Junior Cadougan and Vander Blue, who is one of my favorite players because he has a sweet name, a sweet game, and he pissed on Wisconsin, and their returning leading scorer is a big man so they'll have a nice balance.  The back court should be their strength, but that doesn't mean their shooting - the three returning guards shot combined 48-162 from 3 last year and that will probably hold them back from being a truly dangerous team.  Still better than Wisconsin though.

26.  Ohio Bobcats.  You only need to know one thing - yes, D.J. Cooper is back.  You remember Cooper, right?  He's the guy who pretty much beat Georgetown two years ago and Michigan last year in the NCAA Tournament.  And he was pretty good against South Florida too, helping Ohio to the Sweet 16.  Yes, he's back and now a senior.  As is last year's second leading scorer Walter Offutt.  And #3 Reggie Keely.  #4 Nick Kellog is back too, but he's only a junior.  #5 Ivo Baltic is a senior though.  You see where I'm going with this?  The Bobcats have their top nine players back and all but one is a senior or junior.  The have top end talent in Cooper and Offutt.  And they must have a pretty good chemistry together because even though their coach left to take the Illinois job nobody transferred out.  This could be a very special year, which feels weird to say about a MAC team. Plus DJ Cooper makes me think of D.B. Cooper and that's awesome.   Of course since they are a MAC team, it's pretty likely if they don't win their conference tournament they don't go dancing at all.  Which would suck like Nick Blackburn.  Or Justin Verlander, I suppose.


Previous:
Teams #68-60
Teams #59-53
Teams #52-47 
Teams #46-39 
Teams #38-34

NCAA Hoops Preview - The Big 12 or whatever

Remember how I said I was going to do a preview of a new conference each Wednesday or Friday and laid out that whole schedule?  Well forget all that.  I don't do organization well.  I'm just going to run 'em out there whenever I see fit in whatever order I fell like.

We're starting with the Big 12, a conference that will have a significantly different look this year and I don't just mean that they tossed two of their worst hoops programs in Colorado and Nebraska.  The real intrigue here is that the two tradition powers of the Big 12, Kansas and Texas, were both hit hard by graduations and early defections to the NBA if it ever exists again.  Between the two schools they lost 9 starters, and although both are capable of rebuilding quickly and still have plenty of talent, the conference is more wide open than it's been since I can remember.  Of course, it's looking like it won't exist for much longer, but for this season at least it will be interesting.  With an 18-game true round robin schedule, I expect these teams to beat up each other pretty good, and any school that can manage double digit wins is going to be in good shape.

1.  BAYLOR BEARS.  If he had entered the draft Perry Jones would have been a top-3 pick, so his return to Waco is huge for Baylor.  He's an absolute beast who is tough to handle inside but can also play the perimeter (although not much of a shooter) and is practically a lock for B12 player of the year, especially with Lace Dunn gone so he will become the absolute focal point of the offense.  They return everybody else inside and picked up a couple of stud freshman in wings Quincy Miller (#7 overall according to Rivals, spurned Duke to sign with the Bears) and Deuce Bello (#54 overall and has a sweet name) so they're pretty well loaded.  Their frontline of Jones, Miller, and Quincy Acy might be tops in the country.  If they can get solid PG play from either the returning A.J. Walton (meh) or JuCo transfer Pierre Jackson, who led his team to the JuCo championship, they're a major contender to win the whole thing.

2.  MISSOURI TIGERS.  With so much talent having vacated the conference the door is open for the Tigers and their five returning starters - yes five.  Of course, the biggest question is what happens when you take the players who are well suited to run Mike Anderson's crazy circus ball system and give them a new coach, one whose Miami team last year was one of the slowest in the NCAA.  Assuming Frank Haith has the brains to realize you fit your system to the players in this case, hopefully he turns them lose because with Marcus Denmon, Michael Dixon, and the Pressey brothers running the break with Ricardo Ratliffe, Laurence Bowers, and Kim English filling the lanes these guys are one of the most fun groups to watch in all of the NCAA.  Of course, if my knowledge of most coaches is right he'll try to force them to slow down and at least one player will quit or get suspended for "conduct detrimental to the team" which in this case will mean getting pissed at the coach.  This is just like Above the Rim.    

3.  KANSAS JAYHAWKS.  Kansas lost a ton of talent this year and 75% of their scoring from last year, so they'll rely heavily on Tyshawn Taylor and Thomas Robinson, and that's not necessarily a bad thing, assuming they can improve upon last year.  Both were solid players last year, but are going to have to become the main men on offense if Kansas is going to make any kind of run.  Sophomore guards Travis Releford and Elijah Johnson were top 100 guys coming out of high school, as are newcomers Naadir Tharpe and Ben McLemore, but they're all guards.  The biggest issue for Kansas is on the interior, because outside of Robinson they're paper thin.  They have a big seven-footer in Jeff Withey, but he's only played 207 minutes in his first two years in Lawrence.  The talent on the outside will get them to the NCAA Tournament, but I wouldn't expect much of a run unless somebody really steps up to help Robinson in the paint.

4.  TEXAS A&M AGGIES.  Khris Middleton is one of my favorite players to watch, and also one of my least favorite players to watch.  When things are going well he's a born scorer who can hit from outside, inside, or drive to the hole and get to the line.  However when the opposition makes a concerted effort to take him out of the game it works far, far too well, such as when he shot 0-9 and didn't even bother getting to the line because he just shot jumpers all game (I watched this one and it was lame).  But he's no doubt a special talent and he doubled his scoring average from his freshman to sophomore year, so if he worked that hard again this offseason you might be looking at a B12 player-of-the-year type season.   

5.  IOWA STATE CYCLONES.  What to think about Iowa State?  It's tough, partially because I'm biased since I consider them my second favorite college team, partially because how do you not like the mayor, partially because I love his strategy of not caring about a player's off the court baggage and just bringing in talent, and partially because when you ignore players' off the court baggage things can implode in a hurry.   I mean you know all about Royce White's talent and watched Chris Allen for what feels like 10 years, but did you realize transfer Anthony Booker from So Ill was ranked the #43 freshman in the country when he came into school?  And Chris Babb from Penn State averaged nearly 10 points per game as a sophomore?  They're going to struggle finding a ball handler with Diante Garrett graduating, but this could be a spectacular team.  Or they could end up with a couple of guys kicked out, a fight amongst their own team, and a massive flame out of a season.  Either way, this should be fun to watch. 

6.  OKLAHOMA STATE COWBOYS.  I've flipped these guys with Texas a few times, and that's mainly because I can't quite figure out what to think of OSU (or Texas, actually).  On the one hand, the bring in a freshman in wing LeBryan Nash who instantly becomes their best player (#6 overall recruit by Rivals) so that ups their talent level.  On the other hand, he needs the ball in his hands to be effective, their other stud recruit is a point guard Cezar Guerrero (#71 overall) who is described as more of a scorer than distributor, and their best returning player, Keiton Page, is a big-time chucker who led the team in shot attempts despite hitting just 37% of his shots.  See where I'm going with this?  They might be a more talented team this year, but I'd be concerned about if there are enough balls to go around. 

7.  TEXAS LONGHORNS.  I'm struggling to see any way they can compete this year.  I know Myck Kabongo is a total stud and basically pushed Cory Joseph out the door, but I am, everything is gone from last year and even though this year's recruiting class is very good it's not a ready made team like Kentucky seems to pull in each year.  I mean, literally the only returner of any consequence is J'Covan Brown and he averaged double figures scoring and went for over 20 in both NCAA tournament games, but that was as a complimentary player, and now he's going to have to be Mr. Offense.  I feeling like I might be selling them a bit short because it seems like no matter what the Longhorns are always able to end having a great team that flames out in the end, but I'm really not seeing it this year.  Seeing as how Rick Barnes isn't exactly known for coaching teams up, looks like 7th place and the NIT to me.

8.  KANSAS STATE WILDCATS.  So here's Kansas State.  A terrible program that never did anything, and Frank Martin manages to snag Michael Beasley, Bill Walker, and Jake Pullen - bam, instant contender.  Well guess what?  With Pullen's graduation they're all gone.  Some say Martin has turned K-State into a whole new program, one who can contend with the big boys in the conference (wherever they end up).  I say they're wrong, and K-State is heading back to dumpsville - unless they end up in C-USA or the Mountain West or some new conference made out of leftovers, but if they're in a major conference it's not going to be pretty, starting this year where I'd be stunned if they managed even an NIT bid.  Should have taken the Miami job, Frank.  A chance to go back to your home town right as your program is about to fall off a cliff?  Ouch.  This is like Shelly Long leaving Cheers, only kind of the opposite.

9.  OKLAHOMA SOONERS.  Ouch.  From 30 wins two years ago to just 27 in the past couple of seasons combined along with NCAA infractions and a new coach.  Also, if I told you there was much talent here I'd be lying.  Lon Kruger has a long road back to make Oklahoma relevant, but at least if they move on to the Pac-12 (14/16) they'll get to play those crappy teams a bunch of times, so that'll help.  Seriously, though the only guy I remember from Oklahoma last year is that Brian Cardinal wannabe Cade Davis and he's gone so you can just picture me shrugging my shoulders and we can move on.

10.  TEXAS TECH RED RAIDERS.  Riddle me this - what happens when a terrible team loses four starters (it's four top scorers, top rebounder, and 3 top assist men) who accounted for over 2/3rds of the team's scoring and are replacing them with a JC dude and a transfer from Utah?  Well we're about to find out and I have a feeling it's not going to be pretty.  Assuming Billy Gillespie isn't drunk all the time I'm sure he'll improve their fortunes (wherever they end up), but this is going to be a rough year.  Good thing nobody gives a crap about this team.


Well there we are.  The first college basketball preview of the year.  As Brian Fantana would say, "It really revs my engine."  Seriously though, I need this.  I can't even watch the Twins anymore.  At like, 2pm this afternoon Snacks texted me something about how Parmalee can hit and I was like, "Dude, I totally forgot they were even playing a day game" and he was like, "I know.  I only even saw the score because I was going on mlb.com to check and see if the Red Sox were losing because it would be funny if they collapsed."  It's so funny and sad I'm going to go kick a baby.

Seriously though, Missouri at 75-1 to win the National Championship is worth throwing a couple bucks down.  They'll end up a 3-4 seed.

Week in Review - 02.21.2011

Well, we're in crunch time now, eh?  All that cushion, all that certainty, all that "should be in" stuff that the Gophers built up with those good wins over UNC and West Virginia is now gone and we are into do or die time.  It shouldn't be too much of an issue, because the next four aren't exactly going against world beaters:  Michigan State and Michigan at home, at Northwestern, and then back home against Penn State.  Win three - and they should win three - and they'll be 9-9, which, when combined with their non-conference wins and computer numbers would probably get them in.  Win all four, which is possible, and they're guaranteed in.  But win just 2, and you'll need a nice run in the B10 tournament.  Any less than that, and then turn out the lights - but not at Williams, because we'll be seeing a home game or two for the prestigious NIT.  Really, it's in the teams' hands and in their control.  Win the games you're supposed to win and you're in.  That's it.  Simple, really.  Practically guaranteed.  The Gophers would never let me down.

WHO WAS AWESOME

1.  Purdue Boilermakers.  I think beating the two best teams in your conference qualifies as having a pretty awesome week, and they certainly made their case that they, not Wisconsin, should be considered the second best team in the Big Ten.  Really, though, it doesn't get much more impressive than beating two top 10 ranked teams and conference foes at that, even if they were at home.  E'Twaun Moore had some big-time struggles in mid-season but he's hit his stride big time, hitting for at least 19 in his last four games, capping it off with a career high 38 against Ohio State on Sunday, a game in which he hit 13 of 18 shots and basically dominated the #1 team in the country or whatever they were ranked.  This is a whole different team when he's on (JaJuan Johnson is always on) and they pretty emphatically answered the question, "Who has Purdue really beaten?"  Big Ten actually looking pretty good for possibly three Sweet 16 teams.  But probably zero.

2.  Jake Pullen.  There's little doubt who picked up the biggest win of the week, even if it was way back on Monday night and already feels like it happened a long time ago.  K-State was basically drifting aimlessly, having taken their preseason top 10 (top 5?) ranking and basically pissed it away thanks to complacency and a crazy amount of turnovers, but there's never been any doubt they were talented.  Thanks to Pullen, who scored 38 in that big win over Kansas and followed up with 27 more in a blowout win over Oklahoma, they may be making a late push towards an NCAA bid.  ESPN's bracketology had them as a 10 seed after they beat the Jayhawks, with some late success - like a home win over Mizzou - they could end up a 6 or so seed.  Talk about a dangerous 6 seed, wow.

3.  The Colonial Athletic Conference.  There were four big winners in Bracket Busters:  George Mason, Virginia Commonwealth, Old Dominion, and Utah State.  All four of those teams picked up a quality win, which means each of them moved that much closer to grabbed an at-large bid.  Notice anything three of those teams have in common?  Yep, GMU, VCU, and ODU are all members of the CAA, and they TCB ASAP FYI, and can probably now RSVP for NCAA MM, although if either of them go FUBAR and lose to an inferior opponent they'll probably drop to the wrong side of the bubble, but right now it's actually looking fairly likely that the CAA will end up with three bids.  That's awesome. 

4. Cincinnati Bearcats.  You know how it seems like the Big Ten teams who are right on the edge of getting a bid seem to just play like garbage (Illinois, Minnesota, Northwestern)?  Teams from the Big East apparently don't subscribe to that style of perpetual disappointment, and Cincy is the latest team from that conference to go from outside the bubble to inside with a very nice week.  First they beat Louisville at home, and in convincing fashion, and then they followed it up by winning a very tough trap game @ Providence, going into overtime before blowing the Friars out by 12.  That moves them to 8-6 now in conference play, and that's big because their last four games are all very tough (@G-Town, UCONN, @ Marquette, G-Town).  This sets them up where they only need to win one of the four to get in.  Still not easy by any means, but if they can't win at least one of those four they don't really deserve it anyway.

5.  NBA All-Star Game.  I'm just kidding, I'm not retarded enough to watch that crap.  

5.  Tu Holloway.  Even though it's pretty retarded to change your name from Terrell to Tu I love this guy anyway. He notched a triple-double on Saturday in a surprisingly competitive game against Fordham, tallying 26 points, 11 rebounds, and 10 assists.  And he did it with zero turnovers and 8-11 shooting from the floor.  That's ridiculous.  That has to be one of the most efficient games of all-time.  I assume there is someway to look that up, but I'm drunk and tired and I'm not going to do it.  Somebody do it for me.  That's what the comments are for.  Let's assume our lists is 1.  That Bill Walton game, 2.  That christian laettner game, and 3.  Holloway's triple-double.  What else?


WHO SUCKED


1.  St. Mary's Gaels.  If there was an award for most effective killing of your at-large chances in a single week, St. Mary's would stand an awful good chance at winning that award this year, and possibly even for the entire decade.  They started the week in "almost certainly in" status, lost to a terrible, terrible, terrible San Diego team which knocked them to "probably out" status, and then blew there big chance to jump back in, losing at home to Utah State.  With Gonzaga so down this year it's difficult for the Gaels to get quality wins and as of right now their early season win over St. John's is the only real impressive win on their resume.  If they can close with home wins over Gonzaga and Portland, two of the better teams in the league, they would end up at 14-2 in WCC play.  I would guess if they can then at least get to the final in the conference tournament that would probably get them in, but man, did they ever plummet down the S-curve.


2.  Virginia Tech Hokies.  Oopsies.  Honestly, as frustrating as it is to be a Gopher fan - and it's damn frustrating let me tell you what - being a Hokie fan would be a nightmare.  Two straight years of being just barely on the wrong side of the bubble due to softer than Ralph Sampson non-conference scheduling, followed this year by a much better schedule which resulted in losing nearly every meaningful non-conf game and now probably losing one too many conference games they really couldn't afford to lose after dropping a game to Virginia on Saturday.  That gives the Hokies five conference losses:  Virginia, Georgia Tech, BC, UNC, and Virginia - yes, they were swept by Virginia.  Take those two losses plus the GT loss and they're going to need to basically be perfect from here on.  Hopefully not though because their coach is a douche. 


3.  Missouri Valley Conference.  If the MVC wasn't already a one-bid league, it certainly is now as Bracket Busters was not kind to teams from the Valley.  Or, more accurately, teams from the Valley just plain sucked.  Northern Iowa, who needed a win to have a shot at a bid, lost to George Mason (at home).  Wichita State, who needed a win to have a shot at a bid, lost to VCU (at home).  Missouri State, who needed a win to have a shot at a bid, lost to Valpo.  Actually, nine MVC teams played in Bracket Busters this weekend and they managed just three total wins, none of which came from teams with post-season aspirations outside of a possible NIT berth.  Just a terrible showing overall.  This feels more like something the Twins would do.  Somehow.   

4.  Duquesne Dukes.  Oh Duquesne you're breaking my heart.  A surprisingly hot start in Atlantic 10 play had the Dukes at 8-0 and atop conference play, but even more exciting they were looking like a fringe bubble candidate for an at-large bid.  It would be their first appearance since 1977 and behind a potent offense and a stingy defense they looked legit.  Of course, they did nothing in non-conference play so their margin of error was small, and it's now non-existent after they lost to American's most hated team, the Dayton Flyers, a game they led by six late before letting the evil Flyers go on a 10-0 run.  That's now the Dukes third loss in four games with Xavier being the only loss that didn't hurt.  Now Duquesne will need to win the A-10 tournament to make a bid.  I'm sure that will happen.

5.  Baylor Bears.  Well that ought to do it.  Although you could definitely argue that Michigan State or Kansas State are the most disappointing teams this season they are both still alive for an NCAA Tournament berth.  The same can't be said for Baylor anymore, who completely what can only be described as a four-month long dump on their own shoes by losing by 9 to Texas Tech.  AT HOME.  That's Texas Tech, record 12-15, Big 12 record 4-8, and RPI 139.  That's unforgivable.  Although that actually might not even be Baylor's worst loss this year, because they also dropped games to Oklahoma (12-13 (4-8), #132) and Iowa State (14-13 (1-11), #147.  Any one of those losses would be enough to cast a pretty big shadow on their chances in March.  Combine the three, and they're cooked.  Looks like I was right that their 30-1 number to win the championship was way off.  Just turns out I was wrong in the wrong direction.


I didn't have room for him here because too many teams shit the bed this week, but I also want to point out that Durrell Summers shot all of 1-8 this entire week (two games), mainly because in their game against Ohio State he was so bad he only played 16 minutes and in the game against Illinois he shot 1-7.  He should probably just quit and transfer.  I hear Ames is quite nice.

Want to know what else sucks?  When you think you put down on Aaron Baddeley to win the Northern Trust Open at 66-1, and you think you meant to because you specifically checked each book you have an account at to find the best odds. And then you watch the tournament all week and see he's in contention, and then when he's up 2 with just 2 holes to go and you pretty much have the win in the bag you go to check on what the exact amount you're about to win is and it turns out someway, somehow that bet isn't there and you can't blame anybody but yourself because you know damn well you were drinking Wednesday night and probably completely spaced on hitting "confirm" that final time.

FML.

Some Notes from MLK day Action

You may not know this - or you may, I don't really care and it doesn't really matter - but in honor of Martin Head King day ESPN ran a college basketball marathon of sorts, featuring four games (2 Big East, 2 Big Twelve) with some of the top team's in the country:  #2 Kansas, #3 Syracuse, #4 Pitt, #7 Villanova, #8 UCONN, #14 Missouri, #24 Kansas State, and Baylor were all in action.  Luckily due to my company being awesome and giving us the day off I was able to catch a large chunk of each game.  Here are some quick impressions of each team involved.  Pay attention to this, it will probably help you win your NCAA pool in March.

#7 Villanova - They have a much better inside/outside balance than they've had the last couple of years, with two legit low-post scorers in Antonio Pena and Mouphtao Yarou (who is a complete beast).  I think their big weakness is that lack of a go-to guy.  Say what you want about how bad Scottie Reynolds sucked for the first 35 minutes of every game, and he did, but he was reliable down the stretch run, something that's missing a bit this year.  Corey Fisher certainly looked the part tonight, scoring the team's last 11 points, but based on what I've seen in other games I"m not sure that's something they can count on.  Maybe he'll get to that point where he can put them on his back, but I'm not betting on it and am seeing an early exit for Nova in March.  Maybe because I hate them.

#8 UCONN - This is a team that doesn't have to worry about who their go-to guy is since they have Kemba Walker, who once again cemented his reputation by hitting a floater with three seconds left to give the Huskies the big win over Nova.  Walker is good enough that he can probably get UCONN into the Sweet 16, but if they're going to go any further someone is going to have to help.  Alex Oriakhi has all the physical tools to become that guy, and they have several wing players who could step up, so I'd bet on somebody hitting their stride and UCONN being very dangerous in March.  Don't forget, Walker basically won the Maui tournament all by himself, if he gets any help at all on a consistent basis look out.

#14 Missouri - A team that plays that "controlled chaos" style that the Tigers play will always be as good as their guards.  No matter how good your interior types are, and Mizzou has some very good ones, the guards are what make that run-and-gun style work.  Specifically the guys who handle the ball, and I was really impressed by their point guard Phil Pressey yesterday.  Looking at his stats and game log he's very inconsistent this year, which is to be expected out of a freshman point guard, but he looked good against K-State.  They're talented, but relying on a freshman to handle the ball in March is a good way to get bounced early.

#24 Kansas State - Well this is a fine mess.  The Wildcats were blown out by Missouri, dropping their Big 12 record to 1-4, overall record to 13-6, and record against teams that aren't cupcakes to a very poor 3-6.  That loss was basically a microcosm of their season:  a talented, athletic team with zero discipline who turns the ball over like it's the goal of the game.  They came into the game as one of the worst in the country at taking care of the ball, ranking 256th in the country, and then made things even worse, giving it away a staggering 23 times.  Jake Pullen is basically the same player he was last year, but he's getting no help and their interior players are nearly as likely to turn it over as they are to score.  Who knew Denis Clemente was that valuable?  Second best Clemente in history, in my opinion.

#4 Pitt - Pitt is similar to Villanova for me, in that I hate them, but this Pitt team is built differently - they're actually athletic for once.  Ashton Gibbs is looking like he'll break the line of overrated, overhyped, and crappy Pitt point guards (Brandin Knight, Carl Krauser, LeVance Fields) because he can actually score - not just shoot, not just pass, not just drive, but all those things plus scoring.  Really like him.  A couple other nice guards and some quality size including Kid from Kid N Play, and out of the four Big East teams I saw yesterday this team is most likely to make the Final Four.  God it just kills my soul to say that.  If the Packers win the Super Bowl and Pitt makes the Final Four in the same year you might be looking at the end of DWG 4-eva.

#3 Syracuse -   It's admittedly a little tough to truly evaluate them based on yesterday's action because their leading scorer, Kris Joseph, was out with an injury, but there are a couple of points I can pull out of that game.  The first is a positive, and that's that freshman Dion Waiters is going to be an absolute stud in a year or two.  The second is not, and that's how vulnerable the 'Cuse 2-3 is to penetrating guards this year.  Pitt was able to get into the lane over and over and over again, and that led to some easy baskets.  Some unheralded team with solid, athletic guards is going to stretch them to the limit in March.  Their a tough team, as shown by their ability to hang with Pitt without their best player, but they're vulnerable.

#2 Kansas -  Wow.  This is definitely a national title contender.  I've seen them before but never really watched closely, and they're loaded.  They're basically two deep at every guard position and are incredibly athletic.  Their one weakness is that they are a bit undersized in the front court and don't have a real true post presence in the rotation, but the bigs they do have are more athletic that most you're going to find.  They could be vulnerable in March because I'm not 100% sold on their point guard play, and also because they're Kansas who loses early a bit too often, but I am likely picking them to make the Final Four.   

Baylor - Lace Dunn is one of the best scorers in the country, and he's surround by athletic wing and post types who can score.  So what's the issue?  There's nobody who can handle the damn ball.  When I highlighted Baylor as WHO SUCKED from last weekend, I talked about their high number of turnovers, and now I've seen it in person.  Dunn is basically a pure scoring guard being forced to play point, and that's not a recipe for success.  This team has no shot in March.


Also I just re-watched Adventureland.  Movie rocks.  It actually makes me angry that Kristen Stewart is in those Twilight movies, because she's really good as the kind of quirky, goofy chick, but in the Twilight movies (and yes, I've been forced to watch all three) she's completely wasted because they took a character that was undeveloped with no depth (yes, I've read three of the books) and gave her even less of a personality in the movies.  Such a waste.  I love K-Stew.  Top 10.  And way hotter than Lisa P.

Week in Review - 12.20.2010

 Two last things about my trip to California:

1. On the ride home I sat next to this young woman probably in her early twenties.  Throughout the entire three and a half hour flight she didn't nap.  She also didn't read.  She didn't have a computer.  She didn't do a crossword or sudoku book.  She declined a drink when they came by to offer a complimentary beverage.  She never went to the bathroom.  She never spoke to anyone.  No, she did nothing except stare straight ahead and blink for 3 and a half hours.  Absolutely bizarre and kind of creepy.  She's either a genius who needs nothing more than her brain to be entertained, or dumb as hell with an empty head.  I have my suspicions. 

2.  If you are ever in California you absolutely have to check out In-and-Out Burger.  Absolutely the best burger ever, excellent fries, and it's all at a near fast-food (but it's not fast food) pace.  Get yourself a double-double and order it animal style.  You won't regret it.  So freaking good.  Anyway, on to the real stuff.


WHO WAS AWESOME

1.  UCLA Bruins.  Still not exactly sure what to make of the Pac-10, and I'm still pretty sure they mostly suck, but UCLA picked up a huge win this weekend knocking off BYU (previously undefeated) in Anaheim at the Wooden Classic.  They won by forcing the Cougars into 19 turnovers, 7 by Jimmer Fredette, and got a huge game out of Reeves Nelson, who looks like a nerd but plays like white jesus.  This win, along with the Bruins hanging with Kansas right to the wire earlier this year, shows that the Bruins have the capability to compete with Washington and Arizona at the top of this conference.  They also have the capability to get swept by the Oregon schools.  Buyer beware.

2.  San Diego State Aztecs.  It's not so much that they got a big win this week, but they're still undefeated (now 12-0) and the way they dismantled Santa Barbara by 26 - the same Gauchos team that just beat UNLV and will likely win the Big West - I'm just beyond impressed right now.  They're extremely balanced, have a great mix of inside/outside scoring, and are very efficient on both ends of the court.  About their only weakness is they don't have a true point guard who plays much, but everyone can handle the ball so they'll probably be ok there.  I don't know what odds you'd find at your favorite online betting site, but I can still find 40-1 on them to win the NCAA Championship on mine.  I recommend you jump on it.

3.  Gonzaga Bulldogs.  About time.  After whiffing on every opportunity to get a quality win - they lost versus San Diego State, Kansas State, Illinois, Washington State, and Notre Dame - they finally got something to show off in March with a big win over Baylor in Dallas, a semi-road game.  Couple this with their win over Marquette, and the Zags are suddenly looking to be in decent shape after being a bit of a concern even last week.  They play Xavier, UL-Lafayette, Oklahoma State, and Wake Forest before starting WCC play.  ULL and Wake should be gimmes, so if they can split the Xavier/OSU games (and they should, and a sweep is probably likely since both are in Spokane) that would put them at 9-6 with three quality wins going into conference games.  With that schedule and those wins they would probably just have to go 11-3 or even 10-4 to get an at-large.  Shouldn't be an issue.   


4.  Kevin Love.  I don't write a lot of NBA here - because it sucks until the playoffs - but just how freaking sweet is K-Love?  His point/rebs by game this week were:  13 & 14, 23 & 16, 19 & 17, and 43 & 17.  Freaking 43 and 17.  Wow.  He's a 40% 3-point shooter, a decent offensive player inside the paint, and the best rebounder the NBA has seen since Rodman.  Other than your physical tools (which Love is lacking in, as was Rodman) there are two things that can make you an elite level rebounder - an understanding of where the ball is likely to go (positioning) and a hunger to be the one who gets the ball (effort).  Love has both in spades, and has used those tools to.  I don't know about you, but I'd probably find somewhere to do some basketball betting and just take the over on Love's rebounds in every single game. 

5.  Kansas City Royals.  If you're going to trade an ace this is how you do it.  They shipped Zack Greinke and his anti-anxiety medication over to Milwaukee in return for SPs Jeremy Jeffress and Jake Odorizzi, SS Alcides Escobar, and CF Lorenzo Cain.  The Royals are thought to have one of the, if not the, best farm systems in the league right now, and they just got better.  Perusing some lists, the two starting pitchers they just got are generally ranked in the top 3 in the Brewers' system, Escobar is thought to be a future star at SS even if he didn't exactly have a great first season last year, and Cain is a "toolsy" center fielder of the future type of player.  In short, it was a haul for a team that is already loaded for the future.  Twins better win now, because starting in about 2013 the Royals' dynasty is ON.  (NOTE:  Milwaukee also better win now, because between this trade and the Lawrie for Marcum trade they have essentially killed their future).  


WHO SUCKED

1.  Tennessee Volunteers.  There were quite a few teams who had bad losses this week, but nobody can touch the disaster that was the Vols.  Two games this week - vs. Oakland and @ Charlotte - and two losses.  the Oakland game is rough, because although the Golden Grizzlies are an NCAA caliber team, they've been unable to crab a real impressive win, losing to West Virginia, Illinois, Michigan State, and Purdue.  Then the Charlotte loss...oof.  The 49ers are, frankly, pretty awful, coming into the game at 4-6 with losses to Gardner-Webb and East Carolina, and they just kicked Shamari Spears, their leading scorer, off the team.  Tennessee has shown how good they can be with wins over Villanova and Pitt, and have now shown how bad they can be as well.  And that's pretty much their outlook for the season as well, they could easily be an elite 8 team or a team that gets bounced in the first round.  Or, hell, and NIT team.  That's what I predicted for them going into the season so let's go for that.   

2.  Kansas State Wildcats.  Honestly I thought the Wildcats were a bit overrated coming into this year, but I didn't say too much because I though tthey were overrated last year and then they made the elite 8 so I figured maybe I was wrong.  But now if you look at their results this year it's kind meh.  Their only two notable wins - over Virginia Tech and Gonzaga - both look worse than they did at the time because both of those teams are struggling, and getting blown out by Florida on Saturday certainly doesn't help things.  So it is now a fact - Kansas State sucks.  Also I'm pretty sure their coach could get you wacked with one phone call.

3. Illinois Fighting Illini.  Well, it's safe to say Ohio State is now the class of the Big 10, and it's not even close (although I'm sure Michigan State will get there by March).  After building a nice resume thus far with the only blemish that overtime loss to Texas in New York, the Illini froze up and locked up versus Illinois-Chicago and Paul Carter this weekend, losing 57-54 in a game where the final 15 seconds saw them miss three shots and turn the ball over twice.  I still don't trust McCamey, and this is exactly why.  I'm sorry, he's just not really a point guard.  He's just not.  I know he has a ton of assists but he's not a point guard.  This team has first round NCAA loss written all over it. 

4.  Josh Selby.  It's a bit of a stretch to say he sucks considering he was a freshman playing in his first ever game and scored 21 points including the game-winning three pointer, but there are some warning signs here.  First off, he's a point guard but finished with just 1 assist compared to four turnovers.  Secondly, he pushes Elijah Johnson (5 points, 2.5 assists vs. just 1.4 TOs in 15 minutes per game) to the end of the bench, as well as Travis Releford (better than a 2-1 assist to TO ratio).  All that helped lead the Jayhawks to a game against USC where they registered just 13 assists versus 12 turnovers for a team that was averaging 20 vs. 13 going into the game.  It could just be a bad game for the team, or it could just that it takes some time to gel and get used to playing with a brand new teammate.  Or, it could be that one of the best team's in the country, one whose strength was their balance and ball movement, just brought in a ball sync.  We shall see.   

5.  Big Ten naming controversy.  Seriously?  So the Big Ten announces they are going to name the divisions the Leaders and Legends, people freak out, and now they might change the names?  I don't know what's more pathetic, the Big Ten for rolling over and possibly changing the names less than a week after they were announced or the pathetic souls out there who actually care about something as meaningless as division names so, so much that it drives them to write letters and bitch to such a magnitude that it gets the Big Ten to actually reconsider.  So sad.  It's division names, people.  God.

And with the teams in each division already set, how much better are you really going to get?  You can't do geographic names, no matter how many national talk show hosts who don't have a clue what's going on keep saying it, and you can't do anything cute like "Great Lakes" and "Heartland" because, again, morons, the team groupings are already set.  So good luck coming up with anything better than Leaders and Legends, because it doesn't matter what they do, because the guys who drive their truck in team colors with two flags flying out the window and the personalized "OSU4EVA" license plates are going to send their emails from the library (I assume they can't afford computers) and write their letters (most likely in crayon) and bitch because for some sad, inexplicable, pathetic reason, what the Big Ten names it's divisions is really, really fucking important.


Last thing I want to say now that I'm all riled up that I am not a fan of this Nishioka signing.  I can't exactly hate it, because it's a nice cheapish investment, but I would rather have JJ Hardy.  And since the choice was basically Hardy/Nishioka vs. Nishioka/Casilla, this move will be evaluated on a Casilla vs. Hardy basis, so it doesn't quite matter as much that Nishi is going to probably end up a mediocre fielding slap hitter.  Just like Casilla.  God what an awesome middle infield combo.  It's like somebody finally answered my prayers and cloned Nick Punto and let the Twins have both of them as a reward for their constant scrappiness and fundamentalsitude.  $20 says Nishi is a slide into firster.

Big 12 College Basketball 2010 Preview

That's right kids, I'm back to give my NCAA basketball previews, conference by conference, for another year, because it's about that time, to bring forth the rhythm and the rhyme, I'm a get mine so get yours, I want to see sweat comin' out your pores.  I'm starting with the Big 12 this year because that's where my sleeper for the NCAA Championship resides.  Come on, swing it. 

1.  Baylor Bears.  And this would be that sleeper.  They did lose three starters off the Elite 8 team from last year, including lottery pick Ekpe Udoh and starting point man Tweety Carter, but the pieces are in place for a deep run by the Bears.  LaceDarius Dunn is back, might be the best guard in the nation, and is capable of taking over a game all by himself, and talented freshman center Perry Jones is the type of freshman who can carry a team and will be one of the top newcomers in the country.  The key to how far they'll be able to go will be the development of a couple of sophomore guards who were bit players last year but were both highly regarded recruits.  If either Nolan Dennis or A.J. Walton can fill that Tweety Carter role the Bears could absolutely be cutting down the nets at the conclusion of the season.  Actually I'd even go so far as to say probably.  They'll probably be cutting down the nets.  Current odds:  30-1.  You might want to throw a sawbuck on that.

2.  Kansas Jayhawks.  Like Baylor, the Jayhawks lose a lot of firepower from last year, but it's not like Kansas just goes around recruiting stiffs - there are a ton of very talented guys who will be asked to step up their contributions this year, and based on pedigree they shouldn't have a problem doing it.  Assuming Josh Selby ends up being declared eligible they will be a national contender, and even if he isn't they should be a quality, deep team.  I would guess he'll be cleared, being that this is Kansas and not Kentucky.  Expect Kansas to be one of the best teams in the country and a top seed, only to be upset in the tournament for something like the 9th time in the last 10 years, not counting that year they won of course.

3.  Kansas State Wildcats.  Expect these guys to be media darlings this year (one magazine I've looked at picked them first in the conference) due to their crazy eyed coach and Jake Pullen and his beard.  I absolutely love Pullen, and have written about him on this blog a couple of times, but it will be interesting to see how he responds without backcourt mate Denis Clemente this year.  Still, besides Pullen there are a bunch of athletic, talented big men and wings, and if a couple of them can improve upon last year (particularly Wally Judge, a top 20 recruit according to Rivals a year ago who played only 12 minutes per game last year) they could go far. Also you know that mafia looking coach of there's has mob ties, so if anybody hears anything about a fix involving K-State can you let me know so I can throw some dollars at it?

4.  Missouri Tigers.  Mizzou took a hit when prized recruit (#12 according to Rivals) Tony Mitchell was ruled ineligible for the fall semester, but there's still plenty of talent returning including the team's three top scorers from last year in guards Kim English and Marcus Denmon and forward Laurence Bowers.  They are pretty well stocked in both the backcourt and the frontcourt and have a very nice recruiting class coming in, even without Mitchell.  The Tigers traditionally play an awesomely fun 40-minutes of hell type of ball, and with their stockpile of guards and athletic wings they're loaded for a nice run.  Or, more accurately, 40 minutes of run per game. 

5.  Texas Longhorns.  It pains me to praise them after they stole Cory Joseph from the Gophers, but the Longhorns will be much the same - supremely talented - despite losing four starters.  Will that talent gel, like in 2008, or will it fizzle into disappointment as it did last year?  Don't know, but it should be fun to watch.  Joseph and Tristan Thompson are two of the top freshman in the country.  Jai Lucas was a highly touted PG out of high school who has disappointed but is looking for a new start.  Jordan Hamilton looks like a likely breakout star.  Gary Johnson has been an excellent sidekick for years, but will finally be a feature player.  Like I said, lots of talent.  Let's see if Rick Barnes screws this one up, because you know there's only three things in Texas:  steers, queers, and underachieving sports teams.

6.  Texas Tech Red Raiders.  I'm not sure how talented they are, but they are definitely experienced with five of their top six players returning, all of whom are going to be seniors.  Mike Singletary (not that one) was talented enough to score 43 against TAMU a two years ago and score 20 in a game ten times last year, and John Roberson led the Big 12 in assists last season.  With some good talent coming in to join  the experienced old people this team will probably end up being tough to beat.  They aren't going to be any kind of real contender for the national title or anything, but they'll probably upset some of the top conference contenders at home.

7.  Colorado Buffaloes.  Colorado actually has a chance to make the NCAA Tournament this year, which seems weird to say but they have a couple of supremely talented players in Alec Burks and Cory Higgins.  Burks actually flirted with the NBA draft this offseason after winning Big 12 Freshman of the Year, but ultimately returned for another year, and Higgins has been All-Big 12 third team twice in his career.  If these two get any help, any help at (from, say, former Gopher recruit Austin Dufault) all they'll threaten to make the NCAA Tournament and will be the best Buffaloes team in a long time.  Although I suppose that isn't saying much since they have just two tournament appearances (and one win) since 1970.  So they're due.

8.  Texas A&M Aggies.  While most of the other teams above them in this ranking seem to have at least one of their key contributors back, the Aggies are going to be looking for some role players to step up.  David Loubeau gets the most press as a possible breakout type, but Khris Middleton is the guy I expect to make major strides and become a star.  He hit double-figures in scoring in four of the Aggies last five games last season after getting there just six times prior, while hitting 12 of 22 three-pointers.  He's a three point marksman who is also an athletic scorer.  Or, as I like to call it, a perfect basketball player.  Yes, I'm saing Middleton basketball player heading towards multiple All-American teams and a likely Hall-of-Fame NBA career.  What of it? 

9.  Oklahoma State Cowboys.  James Anderson won't be easy to replace, and losing second leading scorer Obi Muonelo is an extra little kick in the teeth, but there is some good talent returning.  Marshall Moses showed some nice flashes last year, and Keiton Page is fun in that mad-bomber kind of way.  Still, the key to the season might be freshman Michael Cobbins, one of the top ranked power forwards in the country according to Rivals, and the kind of player, if as good as advertised, who could take this team from "meh" to "huh."

10.  Nebraska Cornhuskers.  We here in Big Ten country will get to see them just a bit more often in the future, and hopefully for them the move will help their talent level because this is one of the more moribund college hoops programs in the country.  That isn't to say there's no talent here - Brian Diaz is a nice seven-footer who is just a sophomore and had some high quality games for the Huskers last year- but it's not the kind of talent that's going to compete for anything meaningful.  Again.  Hopefully the conference move and a new stadium will help upgrade the talent level because, frankly, we've already got a Penn State.

11.  Iowa State Cyclones.  Freddy Hoiberg is certainly in for two very different years the next couple of seasons.  Next year, with an interesting recruiting class this year (including eligibility risk Calvin Godfrey) and next joining up with Big Ten problem children Royce White and Chris Allen there will be a lot of eyes looking to see how his "take a chance on anybody with talent, despite the baggage" strategy works out.  This year, however, there's no pressure and no worries because there isn't much talent (although I am a fan of Diante Garrett) and only four players are back from last year.  I am betting things turn around in a hurry with Hoiberg and his risk/reward strategy, however.  Or blow up in his face like Royce White at the Mall of America.

12.  Oklahoma Sooners.  Losing your three best players (Willie Warren, Tiny Gallon, Tommy Mason-Griffin) who made up basically your entire offense is going to hurt, but perhaps not as much as any possible ramifications coming down from the NCAA due to the Tiny Gallon situation.  Capel is an excellent young coach, but with nearly the entire starting lineup gone and nobody signed for after this season things aren't exactly looking up in Norman.  There is some talent in the large recruiting class coming in this year, with an elite-level player in Cameron Clark, so if they can squeak past the NCAA hit squad things could turn around, but for this year they'll probably be a scrappy, last-place team that scares a lot of conference opponents at times, but loses out on talent at the end.  Like Gopher football, except without the scaring opponents part.  Or the scrappy part.  

If you came here for baseball talk, what with the playoffs and all, don't worry your pretty little head. I'm cooking up a little ALDS primer, coming your way tomorrow. Or possibly Wednesday morning. Here's a preview: We're doomed.

Elite 8 Preview (Saturday's Games)

Even though my bracket picks have sucked, I've rocked the gambling this year and specifically last round (not posted but I won 8 units on the Tennessee moneyline, which was a hedge against my OSU 75-1 future), so let's keep on posting.  I'm going to attempt to keep this brief since it's Saturday, but sometimes I get carried away so no promises.



KENTUCKY -4.5 vs. WEST VIRGINIA.  At this point there is little doubt that Kentucky is the favorite to win since every other "contender" has been eliminated, but if you look closer they haven't been overly impressive, other than in margin of victory.  Their three wins are over East Tennessee, a rapidly crashing Wake Forest, and a completely over-matched Cornell.  I'm not belittling this team, because I think they are starting to come together at the right time, but West Virginia will be by far the best team they've played this tournament, and a team that can deal with both their size and athleticism.  Both teams are awfully good defensively as well, so I'm expected a slug-fest.  THE PICK:  West Virginia +4.5, 3 units (BONUS PICK:  UNDER 133, 3 units)

KANSAS STATE -4 vs. BUTLER.  I still can't believe Butler beat the Cuse, even though that win might not be as impressive you'd think if you hadn't watch the game.  Syracuse seemed to be in cruise control mode for the first 35 minutes or so, almost like they were waiting for Butler to go away, and when they didn't the Orange panicked, and starting jacking some of the dumbest and worst shots, completely unopen and early in the shot clock and shot themselves right out of the game.  Of course Butler won't just go away, they're pesky and white like that.  But have you seen Kansas State?  They aren't going to wait for the Bulldogs to go away, they're going to attack and attack and attack.  I was very wrong about this Wildcat team, which is yet more evidence that making judgments about a team without having seen them play all year is not a very good way to evaluate a team.  THE PICK:  Kansas State -4, 4 units

And how freaking good is Durrell Summers?  Good god.  I really hope he decides to ill-advisedly go pro, because I'm not looking forward to having to watch Hoffarber try to guard him next year.

Sweet 16 Preview

I know you're probably sick of reading about it by now, but this is a really fascinating Sweet 16 this year.  You have a little bit of everything.  You've got eleven different conferences represented.  You've got your small conference upstarts (Northern Iowa, Cornell, St. Mary's), your big conference upstarts (Kansas State, Baylor), your small conference dynasties (Xavier, Butler), your traditional powers (Kentucky, Duke, Syracuse), your underachieving squads starting to put it together (Tennessee, Washington), team's dealing with injuries old (Purdue) and new (Michigan State, West Virginia), and the best team god ever assembled (Ohio State).

You've got the two best players this year (John Wall, Evan Turner), media darlings (Omar Samhan), precious little white boys with a hometown angle (Ryan Wittman), transfers who flourished (Denis Clemente, Ekpe Udoh, Jordan Crawford), cheaters (John Calipari, Bob Huggins), slime balls (Coach K, Calipari), and spazzes (Izzo, Frank Martin).  You've got lightning quick guards (Jake Pullen, Isaiah Thomas, Terrell Holloway), do-it-all wings (Durrell Summers, David Lighty, Wes Johnson, Devin Ebanks), dead-eye shooters (Farokhmanesh, Jon Scheyer, Scotty Hopson), and monster big men (JaJuan Johnson, Matt Howard, DeMarcus Cousins).

Seriously, I'm really fired up for these next four days.  It should be awesome.  Here are my picks, gambling-wise, ranked from least amount of units vs. most amount of units wagered.

WEST VIRGINIA -4 vs. WASHINGTON:  I'm more than a bit surprised that I'm not more confident in the Mountaineers, but I think the injury to Truck Bryant is going to play a bigger role than you'd think in this particular match up.  WVU has zero answer for Isaiah Thomas, and he can completely control the tempo of a game, as New Mexico found out.  Since WVU likes to play a slower-paced game, that could become an issue.  Still, in the end, Washington doesn't have the athletes to play with WVU beyond Thomas and Quincy Pondexter, so they'll probably run out of gas in the end - assuming Huggy Bear doesn't orchestrate another one of his teams' patented choke jobs.  THE PICK:  West Virginia -4, 1 Unit

SYRACUSE -7 vs. BUTLER:  Another tough game to read.  One of the ways Butler beats more athletic, more talented teams is by being so fundamentally sound, but this year's Syracuse team won as many games as they did by being equally fundamentally sound.  Still, I doubted Butler this year, and that waxing they put on a very good UTEP team tells me I might have underestimated them.  I expect this to be a pretty hard fought, low-scoring affair between two good teams, and in that kind of situation you go with the points.  THE PICK:  Butler +7, 1 Unit (Bonus Pick:  UNDER 138.5, 1 Unit)

DUKE -8 vs. PURDUE:  Not really sure how to call this one.  Duke is the better team, and Purdue can't win on emotion forever, but there are some reasons to believe in Purdue here.  With or without Hummel, they are a very tough defensive squad.  Couple that with a Duke team that relies monster-heavily on the three-pointer for the offense, and one cold night, whether because Duke can't hit or because of tough Purdue defense and the door is suddenly open for an upset.  With the Johnson and Moore it's possible, since they're tough match ups for Duke, and if Kramer can get under Scheyer's skin it could be a long night.  Something tells me this is either going to be a blow out or a Purdue upset, so the spread does me no good.  THE PICK:  Purdue to Win @ +340, 1 Unit.

KANSAS STATE -5 vs. XAVIER:  If you've read this blog leading up to the tournament, you know I'm a big fan of Xavier this year, and not a believer in Kansas State, so this pick is pretty easy.  Nothing has really changed through two rounds, since X has looked good in their two wins while K-State has been less than overwhelming.  Still, any team with two good guards is a danger at this point, so I can't go to heavy.  THE PICK:  Xavier +5, 3 Units (Bonus Pick:  OVER 152, 1 Unit)


OHIO STATE -4.5 vs. TENNESSEE:  The Vols are the kind of team who have been up-and-down all year, and now that they're in the Sweet 16 they probably have you thinking they have it all together now.  Well you're wrong.  They barely beat a San Diego State team that barely bothered to show up, and then lucked into a second round game against the least deserving team in the field in Ohio, and couldn't really get it going until the second half against them.  No my friends, the Vols are doing this with smoke and mirrors and they are about to be exposed.  If you really feel the need to gamble on Tennessee, take the money line, because they have just as good a chance at winning as they do at covering 4.5.  THE PICK:  Ohio State -4.5, 3 Units (Bonus Pick:  OVER 134, 2 Units)

KENTUCKY -9 vs. CORNELL:  I feel a bit weird here, because part of me says that Cornell just got lucky, matching up against two slow-it down, grind it out, non-super-athletic, non-super-quick teams, but another part of me says that this is the kind of team that could take the youngsters on Kentucky completely out of their game.  And it's not like Trevon Hughes or Jordan Taylor are slow.  Not to mention, and I hate referencing something that happened in January and was a loss, but they did hang with Kansas right up until the end and that's a pretty athletic team.  I think this is going to be a fascinating game.  In the end, Kansas probably wins, but those are a lot of points, and Cornell seems to be all business right now.  They don't think they're done yet.  THE PICK:  Cornell +9, 3 Units

BAYLOR -4 vs. ST MARY'S:  I'm still not 100% convinced Baylor is all that terrific, but I think more than anything the Gaels are riding easy matchups.  Well, by beating overrated teams, at least.  Richmond had me convinced, but they didn't even come close to coming close to showing up, and it was clear to everyone, pre-bracket even, that there was no way in hell Villanova was a legit 2-seed.  Maybe more than anything else, and I'm going to bring this up again later, but did it sort of feel like St. Mary's won their Super Bowl already?  Not to mention that Baylor is the same team as St. Mary's, but only if St. Mary's got an upgrade.  Good interior player - but Udoh is better than Samhan - surrounded by good perimeter players - but Baylor's guards are head and shoulders better than St. Mary's guards.  It's hard to see how St. Mary's keeps this much of a game, Baylor should win by ten.  Oh, and the game is in Houston, so it's pretty much a home game.  THE PICK:  Baylor -4, 5 Units (Bonus Pick:  OVER 143, 1 Unit)

MICHIGAN STATE -1.5 vs. NORTHERN IOWA:  Ok, tell me this line isn't fishy and media driven.  First, Kalin Lucas is hurt, and it's being played up as a big story.  Second, UNI just knocked off the major favorite in the tournament, and everyone knows it and can't stop talking about it.  These two facts alone have probably swung this line by about two points.  And there's more.  UNI's coach just agreed to a 10-year deal a couple of days ago, while the tournament is still going on.  Farokhmanesh is the darling of the tournament - hell, the whole team is the darling of the tournament.  It just feels like they're good and done and fat and happy and basking in the glow right now.  Meanwhile, Tom Izzo, notorious advancer in NCAA tournaments, has the team locked down in the gym, going over the game plan without Lucas over and over and over, and making sure his team knows that they haven't accomplished jack shit just yet.  Not to mention Bill Self has clearly established himself as the kind of guy who makes chocking out of the tournament into a routine, while Izzo is the complete opposite, and this feels like the line should be more like 7.  THE PICK:  Michigan State -1.5, 8 Units


I know my bracket picks haven't been doing that well (although I still have all my final four teams left), but the gambling has been successful thus far, so I highly recommend that you follow these picks blindly.