NIT Preview - Gophers vs. Washington

Woo-wee, who's excited for this one?  I certainly am, and although you'd probably assume it (and be right most of the time) that's not sarcasm - I'm legitimately fired up for this game.  Not because it's the NIT Final Four because that's a pretty meh accomplishment still, but because Washington is fun as hell to watch.  They're the embodiment of everything circus ball, and even without Captain Circus Ball himself (Isaiah Thomas, now captaining Circus Ball with the Kings) they still manage to push that tempo, ranking 30th in the country in overall pace.  And they're always consistent with it, never ranking worse than 57th in the past 10 years with three top-10 finishes and seven in the top-30.

No other big conference team, outside of North Carolina under Roy Williams, consistently plays like this.  Missouri had a nice run under Mike Anderson, but both prior to and after him they slow it down considerably (this year's team, which seemed kind of circus ball-y, was actually middle of the pack).  The only other teams, period, with a sustained run of craziness are the smaller schools like VMI and Alcorn State, so watching Washington play will be a treat.  I suppose that's what happens when a crazy circus ball coach like Lorenzo Romar lands at a place where they're plenty ok with mediocrity like Washington.  And we are all better for it.

What makes this doubly exciting is that Tubby has taken off the reigns and accepted the fact that this is a guard-oriented squad now, especially with Ralph out (he's still out, right?  RIGHT?) and let 'em run.  In case you're worried about it being a mirage, looking at the total possessions of the NIT games the Gophers + Opponent have had 67, 64, and 69 in the three games.  That 69 and 67 are the #2 and #3 (tied) most possessions of any Gopher games this year, behind just that silly DePaul game early in the year.  They're now playing uptempo (well, top 100 tempo at least), Washington plays super uptempo and gets team's to join them, and as long as Tubby doesn't get in the way we should be looking at a super spastic, circus ball scoring fest.  I'm thinking both teams in the 80s, so I'm heavily invested (for an NIT game) in that OVER 143.5, and I suggest you do the same.

Looking deeper at Washington it should come as little surprise based on the way they play that they are loaded with athletes, beginning with their top two scorers - PG Tony Wroten (16.2 ppg) and swingman Terrence Ross (16.3 ppg).  Both were big-time recruits (Wroten #14 this year, Ross #48 last year by Rivals) and both project to be mid-first round picks if they enter the draft after this season.

Wroten is the new Captain Circus Ball and is interesting because he can't shoot at all (16% from 3 and very little mid-range game) but can get to the rim nearly at will and is nearly impossible to guard even if he usually gets played off in a Rondo-esque fashion (he's also Rondo-like from the line at 58%).  Think a smaller Rodney Williams who already knows how to get to the rim whenever he wants.  Ross, on the other hand, has a real nice all-around game and can score from pretty much anywhere.  The good news for Minnesota is both have a tendency to disappear (Wroten 2 pts vs. Northwestern on only 5 shots, Ross 2 pts vs. Wash State on only 5 shots a month ago).  The bad news is that Ross is having a Rodney Williams-like string right now, averaging 26 points per in the 3 NIT games, including 32 vs. Northwestern.  I have no idea how the Gophers will stop either of these guys.

To make things worse, the Huskies also trot out C.J. Wilcox on the wing who was 7th in the Pac-10 in both 3-pointers made (64%) and 3-point percentage (41%).  About half of his shot attempts are from behind the arc, so he's not completely dependent on it to score, but when Washington is running their break, which they will do constantly, if he doesn't have a clear lane he'll find a place to spot up and nail it if he's open.  Despite the Gophers nice little NIT win streak they haven't magically figured out how to stop the three, and with Wilcox and Ross on the wing they're going to have to be careful not to get lit up in a hurry.

Two other dudes worth mentioning are PG Abdul Gaddy, who leads the team in assists but still isn't back to his old self (was the #2 ranked PG out of school in his class behind John Wall) after tearing his ACL, and C Aziz N'Diaye who, you'd probably guess, is a seven-foot defensive specialist with very little offensive game.  I'm looking forward to seeing Rodney Williams dunk on his face.

It should be a fun game of up-and-down the court basketball between two evenly matched and evenly motivated (Washington won the regular season Pac-12 title but didn't get an NCAA invite after losing to Oregon State in the P12 tournament) teams.  If the Gophers can take care of the basketball at the frenetic pace Washington will likely dictate this will be a close game.  Unfortunately the Gophers still turn it over too often and the Huskies are good when it comes to creating turnovers in the chaos, so I think Minnesota ends up turning it over a bit too much, but look for a close, super awesome to watch game with Andre Hollins and Rodney Williams continuing their big-time scoring runs.

Washington 85, Minnesota 80.

Week in Review - 3/5/2012

So MLB in their infinite wisdom has decided to add a second wild card team beginning this season whereby the first round of the playoffs will consist on one game in each league between the two wild card teams, in an attempt to cash in on the excitement the Game 163s have generated the last few years in a move that was almost certainly driven by the almighty dollar.

That being said, I like it.  Not only does it give more teams a chance to be relevant late into the season (which, face it, as a Twins fan is a big selling point) but it finally gives a meaningful advantage to the teams that win their division over the Wildcard winner.  Before the only difference was home field advantage, now winning a wild card means you play one game for your playoff life while the division winners know they have a full series coming up.  I'm 100% on board, thanks for asking.



WHO WAS AWESOME


1.  Chip Armelin.  I know the clearest sign of a terrible college season for a team is to start evaluating players in terms of their futures before the year is even over, but here we are, and Armelin played a great game against Nebraska. It was nice to see a player actually attempt to score, not to mention that scoring seemed to be the #1 thing on his mind - a true rarity on the Gopher teams of the Tubby Smith era.  He even took a heat check after he made those three treys, and as a huge fan of the heat check it was nice to see because nobody else ever does it on this team.  I'm not exactly sure how to project him going forward (assuming he stays with Minnesota) but with him, Dre Hollins, and Joe Coleman the team at least has three guard types who are aggressive with the ball and aren't afraid to attack the rim and attempt to score.  For now, at least, until Tubby beats them into submission and they start being afraid to drive. 

2.  Colonial Conference.  Well, the Colonial teams did what they were supposed to do.  The CAA had two teams in the mix for an at-large bid in VCU and Drexel, and both made it through to the CAA Final this week.  Obviously whichever team wins gets the auto-bid and the other will have to wait for Sunday and hope they get called, but they've done what the both needed to at this point.  Both are so on the bubble that it's really tough to say if they'd get in with a loss and might need to catch a few breaks but with Murray State and Creighton getting autobids that's two at-larges that are safe.  I'm hoping the committee does the right thing and let's them both in over crappy big 6 teams like Arizona, Seton Hall, or Miami, but that big conference bias has reared it's head in the past, so I'm skeptical at best.  [NOTE:  VCU ended up winning, and even though it was a close game that pretty much went down to the wire I came away less impressed with Drexel than I was the last time I watched them.  I still think they're a good, tough mid-major but I no longer think it'll be a travesty if they don't get a bid.  They'll probably just beat the Gophers in NIT round 1.]

3.  Indiana Hoosiers.  When Indiana started out the year hot I wasn't buying it.  Then they beat Kentucky and Ohio State and I was like ok maybe.  Then they lost three straight including a home loss to the Gophers and on the road at Nebraska and I was like ha ha I knew it.  Then they just kind of did what decent big ten teams always do (win at home, lose on the road, beat who you should, don't get upset, blah blah) and it was boring, but this week might have won me over.  The beat both Michigan State and Purdue handily and as everyone who was talking about anything about basketball last week made sure to let you know that's three top-five teams they've now beaten this year.  What really won me over was in watching good size chunks of both of those games they're more athletic than I thought.  They still won't be confused for Kentucky, but guys like Sheehey and Oladipo are really good athletes, and Hulls and Watford move around better than I remembered.  I still don't think they can get any further than the Sweet 16, but not long ago I was penciling them in as being upset in round 1, so they've made me rethink things a bit.

4.  Cincinnati Bearcats.  Well that's certainly how you make a run when you're stuck on the bubble come late February.  The Bearcats beat Marquette and Villanova this week (at Nova) to finish the regular season with five wins in the last six including wins over three teams in the top 56 RPI and the only loss to South Florida on the road (RPI 45).  You still can't quite guarantee they're in because that horrendous strength of schedule (#321 non-conference SOS with 9 games against sub-200 RPI teams) and the ugly loss against Presbyterian (RPI 246) which has a good chance to be the worst loss by any tournament team this year, but they're now up to 5-4 against the RPI Top 50 and 7-5 road/neutral and they simply just belong.  Their RPI is held back by that SOS and is shaky at 66 right now, but a few weeks ago they were in the mid-80s, so this is a solid run that's kind of inspiring in the same way the Gophers falling from solidly in to no shot in one short month is inspiring but the opposite.

5.  North Carolina Tar Heels.  Ruh roh.  I think everybody has known all year the Heels were behind only Kentucky in pure talent, but for whatever reason seemed to not quite be able to put it together and kind of drifted along, as double digit losses to UNLV and Florida State attest to.  I mean sure, they won lots of games and all, but they were definitely not living up to their talent level.  And then Duke won in Chapel Hill.  And something snapped.  The Heels have won their last seven, including absolutely crushing Duke's soul in Durham and easy road wins against three possible tournament teams in Virginia (lock), Miami (likely), NC State (very unlikely).  I was hoping they wouldn't figure it out so I could trust them to lose early, but looks like no such luck, and Kendall Marshall was just snubbed for ACC first team so, well, yeah, there's that.  And keep in mind that Roy Williams has no interest in conference tournaments so if/when UNC flames out early in the ACC tourney don't let that affect your NCAA picks.  Or let it.  More sweet sweet delicious sexy money for me sex.


WHO SUCKED

1.  St. Louis Cardinals.  Lemme get this straight.  First, you lose your best player, maybe the best player of his generation and the face of your franchise because you can't afford to pay him.  Then you turn around and give your catcher $15mm per year?  So let's see.  Pujols got 10 years, $240 million from the Angels for an average salary of $24 million each season.  From what I can find, the biggest offer the Cardinals put on the table was 9 years, $205 million - or $22.78 million per.  You're telling me you couldn't take a few extra million you offered Molina and use it to re-sign Pujols and then offer Molina $13 per instead of $15?  You're telling me he wouldn't take that?  Seems like knee jerk reaction to make sure you don't lose your second most beloved player after botching it on the first.  Then again, my favorite team gave their catcher 800 bajillion dollars to sit on the bench, so who am I to talk.

2.  Wichita State.  Losing in the semis of a middle tier conference tournament to a non-descript Illinois State team is never a good thing, but in this case it doesn't really bother me nor my love for the Shockers (the team, not the act).  First of all and most importantly they're already guaranteed an at-large bid thanks to a very good resume, so this loss doesn't knock them out.  Some people will say they'll be more rested but I don't really care about that because a couple of days doesn't make much difference to a 20-year old college athlete, but what I really like is this will knock their seed down a peg.  If they're a 5 or 6 instead of a 3 or 4 fewer people will pick them to make the sweet 16 and even fewer will pick them to make the Elite 8 so when I do and they do I will be the winner and the money will be mine all mine oh sweet money yes I want the money oh yes. 

3.  The Pac-12.  I'm starting to think they should just go ahead and not invite anyone from the Pac-10, including the conference winner.  Arizona starts to look like they're in decent shape and they lose to atrocious Arizona State (RPI 248) to knock them out of the running for a bid.  Washington starts to look like they could maybe get comfortable and they lose to UCLA (RPI 112).  Cal nearly has a bid completely sewn up, but they lose to Stanford (RPI 95), and suddenly nobody is anywhere near a lock.  If Cal and/or Washington get to the Pac-12 final they're probably ok, especially with all the chalk winning the conference tourneys so far, but if they come up short this might really be a one bid league.  At this point the right move might be to just give it to Oregon, because they at least seem like they want to make it and have won four straight.  Don't be shocked if the Ducks end up taking this tournament and the only Pac-12 bid this year.

4.  Iona Gaels.  Well shit.  I couldn't be more bummed about the Gaels losing in the quarters of the MAAC Tournament, because this is a really good, fun, dangerous team and suddenly they're probably not going to get a bid to the NCAAs.  That loss (to Fairfield) gives Iona they're fourth loss to a sub-100 RPI team with two of those teams being sub-200, and that's not going to help, especially considering there's only one win over a top 50 team (Nevada).  They 5-3 record over the Top 100 is fine and the RPI is ok at 46, but there's an awful lot of questions about the profile here.  If they had made the conference final and lost to Loyola (RPI 85) they'd be in a lot better shape, but if ifs and buts were candy and nuts every day would be Erntedankfest.

5. Seton Hall Pirates.  As much as Cincinnati might be the poster team for doing things the right way to get a bid, Seton Hall might be your classic team that does something awesome to make their fans think they're going to do it and then fuck it all up, or as I like to call it, "pulling a Gopher."  Really though, since beating Georgetown and making everybody say "well shit this Seton Hall team might be the goods" the Pirates have lost to Rutgers (RPI 153) and DePaul (RPI 193) which is like LOL.  They play Providence tomorrow (today, if you're reading this instead of doing work) and although the Friars aren't exactly good or anything like that, they do own wins this year over Louisville and UCONN so it's not like they're a piece of crap.  Plus I'd rather have Providence win so we can forget all about this shitty team who sucks and maybe they can get Iona in there instead.  Do it for the children.



And with that I'm out of here.  Off to the great state of Florida with the family to be closely followed by a trip to Chicago to watch the NCAA Tournament with Bogart, Dawger, and Snake.  Probably drink some beer, some vodka, some redbull, and eat a few wings, too.  So I have no idea if/when I'll be posting again.  I'll try to get something up when I'm in Florida, but god willing I'll be too busy.  Then again, the whole family will be there so maybe I'll have to pretend to "work" and blog it up.  You hope.

Lastly I want to mention that I won our Big 10 Fantasy League, beating Bogart in a thriller in the championship and a big thank you to Drew Crawford.  Dawger finished dead last.

Week in Review - 1/3/2012

I was considering doing a "Year in Review" post, like similar to the usual week in review but covering the whole year.  But then I realized that would require me writing about things that happened like, months ago and years of heavy drinking and glue sniffing have made my memory really similar to that Memento guy and so I said eff it.

And really, other than highlighting an awesome guy and a sucky guy from the Gopher game on Sunday I don't really have much to say about the Gophers' two games this week (partially because I didn't watch most of the Illinois game.)  They were expected to lose both games and did, while not embarrassing themselves in the process.   What I'm really not sure what to think about are how the team has had chances to win both games and blew them both.  If Julian Welch makes two free-throws, or even one, rather than missing the front end of a one-and-one in regulation against Illinois they probably win that game (certainly with two, maybe with one).  If Welch makes an open lay-up in the first OT, they might win that game.  If Rodney Williams knocks down a wide open three-pointer against Michigan we head to overtime.  And if the team gets a good shot instead of a shot clock violation on their second-to-last possession, maybe the result is different (this one I blame on Tubby - nice playcall).

On the one hand, they were in both games and absolutely could have won either or both.  On the other hand, they won neither and failed to capitalize on any of the opportunities that came their way.  Since they weren't expected to win either game I'm going to choose to make no changes to my opinion of this team as a deeply flawed squad that has enough ability to be in the hunt for an NCAA bid as long as they make no mistakes (like losing to Iowa - suck it, Badgers) and win a game or two that they probably shouldn't.  They had chances to steal two of those wins this week and whiffed.  Hopefully they find a way to take advantage next time.


WHO WAS AWESOME


1.   Ricky Rubio. Moral victories are for grandmas, sissies, and liberals so I'm really glad they beat the Mavs because I'd feel kind of weird talking up Rubio if the Wolves were sitting at 0-3, but I'd probably do it anyway because oh my god Ricky Rubio is so awesome he makes me crap my pants. Dude sees the court like a mofo.  No, seriously, he's incredible.  The way his head is always up and some of the angles and passes he sees are un-freaking-real.  A lot of point guards can make a great pass hear and there, but I've seriously never seen anyone like this since Magic Johnson.  Yeah, you heard me.  Name another PG that sees the court the way Magic and Rubio did/do?  Stockton?  Every single assist he had was on a pick-and-roll and was the exact same pass (you can look it up).  Paul?  Please.  Nash?  Poor man's Rubio.  He's just so good.  We'll see about his defense and shooting in the future, but his passing is like whoa.  Plus Ricky's even contagious because I saw Beasley pass up an open jumper to try to find a teammate for a lay-up against the Mavs.  No, seriously it happened.  Of course he turned it over by throwing it into traffic, but, like self-exploration, it's the thought that counts. [and then tonight, after I wrote this, they go and dominate the Spurs in a game they led wire-to-wire.  Can you say playoffs?  I'm seeing playoffs.]

2.  Alamo Bowl.  If you like stuff like defense and tackling you probably hated the Alamo Bowl and are also probably like 60 years old and drink sherry because that was freaking awesome.  Baylor 67, Washington 56 in mother effing regulation are you kidding me?  A bowl record for yardage, touchdowns, points, and "are you freaking kidding me" moments - how could you not love it?  Baylor had three guys rush for over 100 yards, while Washington QB Keith Price waited until this bowl game to have the best game of his career, throwing for 438 yards and 4 TDs and rushing for three more scores.  Fun fact:  This was just Price's second career game with 300+ yards, second game with 4 TDs and no picks, and those 3 rushing TDs were the first 3 of his career - not his first 3 TD game, the first 3 rushing TDs ever.  Just a crazy entertaining game in every way, and anything that gets cranky curmudgeons all up in arms whining about the days of leather helmets and 6-3 ball games ok in my book.  Suck it, grandpa.  Go listen to some Mellancamp.

3.  Trey Burke.  Son of a whore is this kid good.  I don't even think I can blame the Gophers for this one because so much of what he did was just knocking down shots after creating space for himself.  Obviously he's not going to shoot 8-11 from the floor very often, but his 46% from the field so far this year is pretty solid for somebody who takes as many mid-range jumpers as he does, particularly for a freshman, and his 76% free throw accuracy this year says he's probably going to be a very solid shooter who is just going to get better.  Which depresses me immensely.  You know where Burke was on Rivals Top 100 list?  #142.  You know where Andre Hollins and Joe Coleman were?  #110 and #121.  I like some of what I've seen from those two, but they are NO WHERE near Burke.  God damn Beilein.  

4.  Spencer Hawes and Kyle Lowry.  This is more representative of any player who is having a crazy good start to the NBA season but Hawes and Lowry stand out to me because Hawes is averaging 12.5 rebs per game so far and Lowry is leading the league with 11.5 assists per game.  You know in a shortened season with basically no training camp you're going to see some weird things, and I suppose you could have seen Lowry coming, especially with Aaron Brooks out of the picture, but Hawes?  Guy had the look of a career back-up and another big white stiff since he came out of Washington, and is suddenly shooting 68% from the floor after being a 47% career shooter with career highs in points and that massive jump in rebounds (career just 5.6 per game).  Did he suddenly get it?  Doubtful.  It's not like he had anybody blocking his development, so I'm going with fluky fluke.

5.  Indiana Hoosiers.  How can I possibly leave them off after the beat Ohio State, which now means they've beat the #1 and #2 teams in the country this season (or that's what they were ranked when the Hoosiers beat them).   What's most amazing to me is that it's basically the exact same team from the last couple of years when they were terrible.  The only real change was the addition of Zeller, and although I'm really impressed with him (as documented somewhere within this stupid blog), he shouldn't be able to just suddenly make a terrible team good.  Did Jordan Hulls and Verdell Jones suddenly become good?  No, of course not.  So I don't know.  Maybe Zeller is that good.  Maybe Tom Crean deserves a hell of a lot of credit.  Maybe it's the whole Victor Oladipo thing.  I don't know because I haven't watched Indiana yet this year, but I'm thinking I should probably want to do that.


WHO SUCKED

1.  Ralph Sampson.  Have you ever seen a big man more passive when he gets the ball on the block?  It's like that center in that Simpsons episode about soccer - wing passes to center, center holds it, holds it, holds it.  Every time just looking to pass, waiting for the double team.  Almost hoping for that second defender like a chubby 17-year old girl staring at the phone just hoping that really cute boy will call (ok fine, chubby dude and cute girl and it was me, you happy now?).  I looked at the box score for that Illinois game that I didn't really watch and saw Ralph had 19 shot attempts.  19!  How is that even possible?   What happened?  That's a career high in shot attempts, the first time he's hit double figure attempts this year (you cannot make a big enough question mark/exclamation point combination for that one), and just the second time in his career he's topped 14 FGAs in a game.  The last time?  Last year against Illinois when he had 17 attempts.  I'd say he must like the matchup against Illinois but their front line is completely different this year so you fucking figure it out.  I give up on this mess.  He now joins Voshon Lenard's senior year, Michael Bauer''s senior year, Rick Rickert, Adam Boone, and Antoine Broxsie on the most disappointing Gophers ever list.

2.  Brock Lesnar. As you know if you pay a shockingly creepy amount of attention to the things I write you know that I used to be like way into boxing and am trying to get back into boxing and/or UFC or MMA or whatever you call it.   Well I watched it again on Friday night and I saw some fairly entertaining undercards (Nate Ortiz omg hi 2 u) and then the main event happened and oh my Tebow.   I wish we were having an actual conversation right now because I'd be all like "did you see that" and you'd either be like "yeah dude wtf" and we'd high five or you'd be like "no dude, what happened" and we'd high five.  Basically Lesnar came out, clearly didn't want to be there, looked terrified like a little bunny, got kicked in the ribs, fell down, and instead of trying to get up he just covered his face with his hands either to cry or to try to block the 83 haymakers the other dude landed on his noggin before the ref mercifully ended the fight (maybe both).  Then he quit the sport.  It was, well, not very impressive to say the least.

3.  Wisconsin Badgers.  Hahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha.   OMG.  hahahahahahahahahahahaha.  Iowa?  You lost to Iowa at home?  Oh my god so awesome.  I knew the Badgers sucked this year.  3-28 from three.  Awesome.  And Iowa isn't even good at defending against the three-pointer.  Nice offense, Bo Ryan.  You know it's ok to drift inside the arc from time to time, right?  So awesome.

4.  Pitt Panthers.  For whatever reason, behind Wisconsin, Iowa, and Duke on my most hated basketball schools list sits Pitt, so this pretty epic collapse they have going on is yet another loss, this time to Cincy, and this time at home.  That loss follows an embarrassing home loss to Wagner and a road loss at dreadful Notre Dame.  You may recall that Pitt started the year ranked 10th and won eleven of their first twelve games, so this is quite the slide.  Turns out when you forget how to shoot, don't take care of the basketball, and play terrible defense you end up losing a bunch of games.  Hell, at least the Gophers play defense (sort of).


5.  Florida Gators.  Since I consider Florida to be a legit sleeper to win the NCAA Tournament their loss earlier this week against Rutgers, one of the worst teams in the Big East, was a bit troubling.  Both teams are pretty heavily backcourt dependent, so you'd think this would play right into the Gators' hands, but it wasn't meant to be.  Although Florida's guards (Brad Beal, Kenny Boynton, Mike Rosario, and Erving Walker) scored a total of 55 points it came on just 18-53 shooting, they turned it over 15 times to just 10 assists, and they allowed Rutgers guards (also four dudes) to score 74 points on 31-57 shooting and they dished 15 assists to just 7 turnovers.  I know they say Rutgers gym is a tough place for visiting teams to play (and I only remember that from way back when Quincy Douby was there and the team was decent), but this shakes my confidence in my sleeper team a little.  On the other hand it's tough to believe all four of those guards will play poorly on the same night again.  It would be like lightning striking twice, although if you ask that dude from The Great Outdoors that happens all the time.


I was gonna put something else here but it's really late and I'm still watching this damn Fiesta Bowl so I don't feel like it anymore.

Monday Musings (and good-bye, my love)

You know what's crazy?  I am super excited for the NBA to be back.  Actually I guess that's not all that crazy because I get excited for the NBA every single year.  I get all jacked up and decide that I'm going to really dedicate myself to following the NBA all season long rather than just jumping in for the playoffs, and it's finally time to really become an NBA fan.  Then, at some point in the second quarter, I watch  a defender not fight through a screen, the picker not roll, the wide open jump shooter clang it off the rim and the team with the ball getting a put back basket because nobody boxed out and the only one who jumped for teh rebound was the 2nd year power forward who still tried on every play.  And now they're playing back-to-back-to-backs and 66 games in like, 3 months or something like that.

Yet, here I am, getting all excited to watch the NBA on Christmas Day.  God I'm so dumb.  Here's some other quick stuff, in lieu of a Week in Review post which I was too lazy to write.

-  I guess the most obvious thing is the sad news that Jason Kubel will no longer be a Twin after signing for 2 years, $15 million with the D-Backs.  I've been pissed off at signings before (when Mussina left the O's for the Yankees I swore off baseball - for some reason I grew up a rabid Oriole fan), and others moves have left me stunned (when Brunansky was traded for Herr I distinctly remember calling my dad a liar, which he wasn't pleased about), but this is the first time I've been broken hearted, or at least as broken hearted as a reasonably rational adult male can be about sports.

I can't even be mad.  That 2 year, $15 million dollar deal is probably more than Kubel is worth considering he's a poor fielder, struggles against lefties, and has trouble staying healthy so I can't be mad at him for taking it or mad at the Twins for not matching/beating it (although I am a bit perturbed that they seemingly wrote him off and never seemed to care about trying to retain him).  So that's why I'm just sad, not angry at anybody.

I don't even know why I love Kubel so much, but I know his is one of only two articles of clothing I own with another man's name on the back (I also have a Denard Span shirt for some reason).  He is also the first player who I ever broke down and bought a shirt/jersey off with my own money (at other points I had owned a LaDainian Tomlinson jersey and a Randy Moss jersey - both gifts).  He's not particularly fast, or athletic, or anything.  His best skill is hitting the baseball, but he'll never be confused with Albert Pujols.  He doesn't even have the small, scrappy gamer thing going for him (although that would have made me hate him).  I think the reason Kubel is so loved, by me and many others, is because he seems like an every man.  Just a cool, laid back dude who would love to play softball and then pounds some beers.  Except in his case instead of softball he crushes pitches from the best baseball throwers in the world and gets millions to do it. 

Obviously I won't be able to follow his career as closely when he ships on over to the land where games start at 10:30pm, but god knows I'll try.  I'm not sure anybody will ever surpass him as my favorite Twin.  And yet we're stuck with Joe fucking Mauer and his enema of a contract and Justin Morneau who may or may not know what year it is.  This blows.

Tell me this guy wouldn't love to destroy you at Beer Pong.

-  On to other, less soul crushing things, you know all that talk about how great Cody Zeller was going to be right off the bat and was the kind of player who could turn Indiana's program right around?  Well I think for once the hype was right because I had a chance to actually watch this dude against Notre Dame (a game the Hoosiers won by 11) and he's absolutely the real deal.  There was one play where he blocked a lay-up attempt some some poor bastard on the Irish, then beat the defense down the court for an easy score.  He's really athletic for his size, very polished for a freshman, and can pass like a guard, and is like whoa.  I now feel very dirty for liking a Hoosier this much.  I'm going to go take like, six showers and then burn myself with matches.

-  As long as I'm talkin' Big Ten players who brokeout or whatever I guess we should talk DeShaun Thomas after his 30 point outburst against South Carolina (on 13-16 shooting!!) which followed his 23-point game (on 10-15 shooting).  Not surprising, since if you watched Thomas last year you could see he had the potential to be a big time scorer and I'm pretty sure he led the nation in points per minute last year (and shots per minute).  When he's hot and hitting he's going to put up major points since he's basically always taking a heat check, and he's been on fire lately which is good timing since Sullinger has a constant hangnail or something.  Of course, it's going to also be fun when he goes 1-14 in a game and shoots the Buckeyes into a loss.  Hopefully against the Gophers.  Ok I laughed when I typed that.


-  Sticking with the Big 10, just when you think everything is hunky dory along comes to Purdue to mess everything up by losing to Butler (Illinois lost a home game to UNLV as well, but that's at least understandable).  Now, in case you haven't been paying attention this year Butler isn't the same Butler they've been for the last several seasons - they straight up suck.  They were 4-6 going into the Purdue game, and that includes losses to Ball State, Valpo, and Evansville, with their wins coming against three truly dreadful teams and a D-II opponent.  And yet Purdue managed to lose on a tip-in at the buzzer on a neutral court.  Ouch.  It's probably the worst loss by a Big Ten team other than Nebraska, Penn State, or Iowa.  Nice work, dingleberries.
- Sigh.  I hate this, but it's time to admit that Washington, although the most fun team to watch ever, are pretty clearly not an NCAA caliber team.  A completely embarrassing loss to South Dakota State - at home by 19 - slams that home pretty clearly and drops Washington to 5-5 on the season.  I suppose none of the other losses are that bad by themselves (@ St. Louis, @ Nevada in OT, and versus Marquette and Duke in Madison Square Garden) but good god, a 20 pt loss to SDSU?  Maybe I'm overreacting but I'm just disgusted.  South Dakota State opened up a 35-14 lead early and never looked back, riding 55% shooting (10-16 from 3), and 26-32 free throw shooting to an easy, and shocking, win.  I suppose whenever a Pac-10 team loses it shouldn't be a surprise (Arizona also got blown out by Gonzaga), but damn, this is just sad.  I miss Captain Circus Ball.

- Ha-ha, stupid Packers.  Go around all cockin' off about how you were gonna go for the perfect season and guess what happens?  You get punched in the mouth by a crappy crap team with a 40 year old running  back, a QB nobody wants, very little talent, and a completely dopey head coach.  On one hand, it's possible this loss refocuses them and they get better, but on the other hand a perfect Packer season is more than I could possibly take and either end up killing myself or somebody would end up dead after I raged out.  It was so fun watching the last two minutes of the game where the Packers needed a stop badly but their little sissy soft defense full of nancy boy hippy girls couldn't stop the Chiefs running game even when they knew damn well a running play was coming.  Seemed like all the talk about the Packer D being statistically poor only because they always had the lead might have just been wishful thinking, because these guys are freaking terrible.  In conclusion, go to hell Green Bay.


Seriously though.  I feel like Mel Gibson in that movie where he's all like "Give me back my Kubel!"  You know what I'm talking about.  The only thing cheering me up at all is I just saw the Christmas card we got from $nake and guess what?  His youngest son is wearing a Yankee cap in the picture they used.  A Yankee cap.  The Yankees.  The New York Yankees.  Jesus, what an asshole.

Week in Review - 12/5/2011

There's a preview of Appalachian State, the Gophers next opponent, at the very bottom of this post.  Huzzah!

WHO WAS AWESOME

1.  Rodney Williams.  I've been waiting forever for some positive feelings about Williams, and now I am finally feeling them.  He seems like a completely different player at the 4.  It's like before he was Mikey in the beginning of Swingers and now he's like Mikey at the end doing the twirly-whirly dance with Heather Graham and hanging up on that manipulative bitch Michelle.  Really though, he's always had the tools like the bear - the big fangs and those fucking claws or whatever - and he just didn't know how to kill the bunny.  Now he knows how to kill the bunny and dunk right on it's stupid head.  Good god, that's the perfect analogy.  Sometimes you people who read this should really be sending me money for that kind of insight.



2. Ohio State Buckeyes.  Nobody cares that the beat UT-Pan American by 30 even without Sullinger because I mean, come on, it's UT-PA, but that win over Duke earlier this week was like woah.  I mean, I did expect the Buckeyes to win and a double-digit win wouldn't shock me, but this was a thoroughly kick their ass from tip to final whistle pick your score kind of game.  I was impressed by OSU after they beat Florida in kind of a grind it out game, but they didn't quite have the look of a National Champion in that one.  Not so against Duke, where they looked like the most complete team in the country.  Really, there's just so much talent here.  Take away their two best players (Sully and Buford) and they're still probably a top 10 team.  Ridiculous.  With Duke and Florida out of the way, only the game at Kansas on Saturday stands in the way of an undefeated non-conference slate.  And hell, they win that one they might very well finish the year unbeaten, because they're far and away better than anybody else in the Big 10.  Which probably means they'll lose to Northwestern or some such nonsense.

3. Xavier Musketeers.  I feel like I talk about Xavier too much but I just really like that program and what they do year after year, and I really really like Tu Holloway (although I liked him better when he went by Terrell).  Their win over Purdue at home on Saturday was more of a ho-hum kind of win, not because it's not a quality victory but because it's what they were supposed to do (although falling behind by 19 in the second half and coming back to win probably says some positive things), but add that in with a very nice win at Vanderbilt that included scoring the final 4 points of the game to send it to OT and then scoring the first 12 points of overtime.  Xavier is a perennial sweet 16 team, and I've kind of been waiting for that big breakthrough squad to get them into the Final Four.  Is this the year?  No.   

4.  Missouri Valley.  For some reason I've always disliked the MVC.  I don't know why since I like all the other smaller conferences.  It's just like a rainbow - nobody can explain why it happens, it just does.  With that being said, however, the MVC is looking tough and annoying again like the old days.  This past week alone Creighton went to San Diego State and got a tough road win (and they stomped Nebraska) and Wichita State beat UNLV by 20 - yes, the same Rebels who beat North Carolina.  Additionally, Northern Iowa has just one loss and Indiana State finished third in the Old Spice Classic.  Things fall off in a hurry after those four teams (sorry Drake guy), but at the very least both Creighton and Wichita should be in the hunt for an NCAA bid, while UNI and Ind State can get in the conversation with a strong run through the league.  All of which means we'll probably have to hear a bunch of annoying crap about how good the MVC always is.  Like this post, which I guess means I'm part of the problem.  Talk about self-loathing.

5.  Oklahoma State Cowboys.  Although part of me feels like I should give Indiana some propers to the Hoosiers for their 8-0 start and tough road win at NC State, I'm going to go with a more wait and see (as in let's see if they can keep it within 20 against Kentucky this weekend) and instead give some props to screwed over Oklahoma State footballers, who stomped the rival Oklahoma Sooners 44-10 in the Big 12 Championship to finish the year at 11-1 and will now have a shot at the National Title against LSU - except not really because the BCS is instead giving everyone a rematch of a game played earlier this year between LSU and Alabama and the Cowboys have to play Stanford in the who cares Bowl instead.  So stupid.  LSU already beat Alabama, so let's say Bama beats LSU - can they really claim to be the best team?  They split.  If LSU plays Okla State it's still not as good as a tournament, but still better than a damn rematch.  Honestly, the end of the year crap is probably reason #1 that I don't get into college football as much as I do college hoops or baseball.  Actually reason #1 is my wife would kill me, but the end of the year stuff is a strong #2.


WHO SUCKED

1.  Dayton Flyers. Jesus Christ, Dayton, could you guys fuck things up any further?  You're a terrible team and a terrible program with terrible fans and no matter you'll never be more than 2nd class in your own conference, but hey, winning the Old Spice Classic, although not against top tier talent, is still some nice momentum.  Then you turn around and lose to Buffalo AT HOME by 30!!  And then lose by 20 at Murray State?!?!?!!  Instead of fighting for an NCAA bid, this team will be lucky to get an invite to the CIT, and they're who beat the Gophers?  This is the shitty shit box team who destroyed Trevor Mbakwe's career and the hopes and dreams of all the children of the world?  Is there any doubt that Dayton = satan?  It even rhymes!  If I go to Chicago again for the NCAA Tournament I'm burning that Dayton bar to the ground.  After I have their tasty wings of course.

2.  Washington Huskies.  Pretty sad considering how much I love the brand of circus ball the Huskies play, but it's becoming clear this just isn't a very good team this year.  Well I suppose I could be overreacting because they are 4-2, but they've only had two opponents who even resemble good teams and they lost to them both - St. Louis a week or so ago and Nevada this weekend.  I suppose it's awfully difficult to replace Captain Circus Ball (Isaiah Thomas) and then keep playing the same kind of circus ball, especially when one of your new main ball handlers is a freshman (Tony Wroten, currently averaging 4.5 turnovers per game) and the other is still trying to work his way all the way back from an ACL tear (Abdul Gaddy).  But the good news is they still play stupid fast and the Pac-10 is awful so they'll probably be back in the NCAA Tournament to thrill us with a couple games that go 190+ combined.  Don't expect too much though, there's little chance they survive the first weekend.  No matter how much I want them to.

4.  Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets.  Why, oh why, does Georgia Tech always suck so bad?  I have such fond memories of Lethal Weapon 3 (the original - Anderson, Oliver, Scott - not the stupid imitation shitty South Carolina group who tried to steal the nickname) that I still have some leftover fandom for the Jackets, but they're just terrible this year - again.  They're 4-4 and we aren't even at conference play yet, and the losses are against St. Joe's (bad), LSU (terrible), Northwestern (ok), and Tulane (bad).  If it wasn't for that win over VCU in the Charleston Classic, they'd be in the running for worst BCS Conference team in the country.  I mean not only did they lose to Tulane, but they were actually the underdogs.  Embarrassing.  Freshmen Julian Royal, sophomore Jason Morris, and juniors Mfon Udofia, Glen Rice, and Kammeon Holsey are all top 100 types of recruits.  Talent - yes.  Experience - yes.  Results - emphatically no.  This would be why what's his face got fired.

5.  Houston Cougars.  It's like something out of a book or a movie, isn't it?  Lightly recruited QB out of high school goes to to his hometown school, the only D-I program to even offer him a scholarship.  After redshirting his first year, he's in a big QB competition his second year which he finally wins towards the end of the year, and then dominates his sophomore year, winning the Conference Player of the Year.  After another great season, he goes into his senior year with a chance to break all kinds of NCAA records, but ends up tearing his ACL.  After being granted a sixth year by the NCAA, he breaks those records and goes on to lead his undermanned team to a an undefeated season by directing the top scoring offense in the nation, and puts his team in a position to make a BCS Bowl for the first time I assume.  All that stands in their way is the Conference USA Championship Game at Southern Miss, so the QB takes his heavily favored squad up against the Golden Eagles and THEY GET FUCKING LIT UP like the Vikings in an NFC Championship Game.  Seriously, Houston got destroyed and scored the fewest points they have all year.  Nice job, Keenum.  Enjoy the CFL.


So anyway the Gophers play Appalachian State Tuesday night and yawn.  App State is actually supposed to be one of the best teams in the Southern Conference, but unfortunately this isn't the same SoCon from back when Davidson was Tournament Killer and Charleston was upsetting people all over the place, and the rest of the conference has become cupcake city.  In fact, the SoCon ranks as one of the handful of worst conference in America according to kenpom.com (23rd out of 32), and its best win outside of those two schools is Elon's upset of a terrible South Carolina team.

So yeah, a mid-tier team from a low tier conference.  Great.  The Mountaineers are 4-3 this year, but two of those wins are over non-D1 schools and the other two were versus Tennessee Tech and Greensboro.  Also the best team they've played this year is East Carolina who is awful and they beat Appalachian State by 20.  The only exciting part about the game, other than watching the Gophers of course, is that the Mountaineers do have preseason SoCon Player of the Year candidate Omar Carter, a senior guard whose scoring average so far this year would be his career low since he suddenly can't shoot anymore.  Although he has gone 15-26 shooting the past two games, so maybe he's on his way back.  I could go on and describe several other decent players, but who cares?  Cupcake city, baby.

Gophers 80, Mountaineers 53

Also I had a whole conversation with Bear about the Gophers and how good "Rodney White" has looked recently and he didn't realize until he sent me an email this morning that he had the name wrong lololololol.

NCAA Basketball Preview - The Pac 12

Here's what you need to know about the Pac-12 this year - they're going to be bad again.  Once again, the Pac teams have been hit hard by attrition and although they continue to pull in a good share of stud recruits, the players are leaving more quickly than they can be replaced.  If there was an easy way to look this up without having to straight count it or if there was a page with bids by conference by year, but there's not, so instead I'll just point out how the Pac has struggled even getting 2-3 teams bids in the last few seasons.

They've done so crappy in the non-conference slate that it's hard to build a profile back-up in a conference where seemingly everybody has a bad early loss.  Last year Oregon lost to San Jose State and Idaho, UCLA lost to Montana, USC lost to Rider, Bradley, Nebraska, and TCU, Stanford lost to Tulsa, Oregon State lost to Seattle, Texas Southern, and Utah Valley, and Arizona State lost to New Mexico.  Those are RPI killers and bring down the whole league.  They'll stabilize eventually because of the level of some of the programs, but this might be another rough one.

Oh well, at least they have hot chicks.

1.  CALIFORNIA GOLDEN BEARS.  Unlike the majority of the team's in the Pac-12, Cal managed to avoid getting hit with the big curse of graduations/NBA defections and as such they should be the best team in the conference this year, despite the fact that Justin Cobbs is probably going to be their starting point guard.  And Cobbsy should have plenty of opportunity for assists with Cal bringing back a lot of fire power - Jorge Gutierrez, Harper Kamp, and Allen Crabbe are all back and all averaged over 13 points per game last season.  Of course, Cal was also a pretty terrible defensive team last year and lost their best inside presence, so it's not like they're going to run away with anything here.  And speaking of running.........

2.  UCLA BRUINS.  Just like Washington, UCLA was also hit pretty hard in the losing players department.  Replacing Malcolm Lee and Tyler Honeycutt won't be easy, but luckily the Bruins have plenty coming back and a bumper crop of newcomers to help ease the transition.   Interestingly, of the newcomers the only freshman is SG Norman Powell (#69 overall on Rivals), but he's been called a Jrue Holliday type athlete, so he should be pretty damn impressive.  The newcomers most key to the Bruins' season are the Wear twins, 6-10 former McDonald's All-Americans who transferred over from North Carolina.  Despite their identical size, their skill sets put one at the 4 and one at the 3, adding some extra flexibility.  As long as they get quality point guard play from Lazeric Jones they'll be at the top end of the Pac.  And I wrote all that without mentioning their best player, Reeves Nelson, who is like what Brian Cardinal or Dusty Rychart would have been if they had actual talent.  So yeah, UCLA is fairly loaded, much like myself (booze not money).

3.  WASHINGTON HUSKIES.  Washington was hit hard by graduations and early defections, losing their three best players in PG Isaiah "Captain Circus Ball" Thomas, Justin Holiday, and Matthew Bryan-Amaning.  No need to panic however, because with Lorenzo Romar still coaching and Abdul Gaddy still around the sweet Circus Ball days should continue.  And thank god.  Really, if you haven't taken in a Washington basketball game lately you owe it to yourself to.  Two of my favorite memories of the last 2 tournaments are watching them play New Mexico and North Carolina.  The tempo is just out of this world.  Oh, and Washington also signed another fast as hell guard in Tony Wroten, so fire up the band!    

4.  ARIZONA WILDCATS.  This sounds pretty familiar at this point, but Zona is yet another Pac-12 team losing a bunch of talent from last year with not only Derrick Williams but also Lamont Jones gone.  Fortunately they're bringing in an excellent class to help out, highlighted by the backcourt duo of PG Josiah Turner (#2 PG, #11 overall) and SG Nick Johnson (#4 SG, #18 overall).  Turner should keep Arizona's traditional of top PG play alive and I'd bet this is the best incoming backcourt in America, but Arizona's lack of impact returning players will hold them down, and their improvement will be the difference between the NCAA and NIT this year.

5.  STANFORD CARDINAL.  Stanford loses their leading scorer, Jeremy Green, to the NBA Draft even though he's a dummkopf and didn't get drafted, but luckily for them they have Chasson Randle (#78 recruit) coming on and ready to step in to his starting position after choosing the Cardinal over Illinois and Purdue probably because he's a nerd but didn't want to go to Northwestern because they're terrible at everything always.  Everyone else is back from last year's mediocre team, and Stanford will likely end up in the same mediocre position as last season unless somebody shows a vast jump in ability.  The most likely candidate is 6-8 PF Josh Owens, a fifth-year senior whose numbers nearly doubled last year.

6.  OREGON DUCKS.  I don't know if it's the attrition from other teams or improvement on the Ducks' part, but suddenly Oregon is looking a little frisky under second-year coach Dana Altman.  I'm just kidding - it's the attrition.  But things are looking up, starting with the end of last season's championship in the CBI. . What?  It counts.  Anyway, the Ducks lose their leading scorer and rebounder from last year and their starting point guard, but have a bunch of quality adds including guard Jabari Brown, the #19 freshman according to Rivals, and possibly the best incoming shooter on the West Coast who turned down UCONN, Kansas, and Washington to come to Eugene.  Of course, your boyfriend Devoe Joseph becomes eligible after the first semester and will add some scoring pop in a more uptempo system.  Of course, the smart move would have been to sit out this year so he could have played all of next season, when the Ducks will be better and, you know, he'd be eligible for the whole year.  Then again, I suppose Devoe has never been known for thinking things through.

7.  ARIZONA STATE SUN DEVILS.  There's nothing more fun than watching players from Minnesota light it up for other teams and this might be your best chance outside of Iowa State.  Trent Lockett led the Sun Devils in scoring last season at 13.4 per game, and with the team's 2nd, 3rd, and 4th leading scorers all gone ASU might look to Lockett to be less a part of the offense than the majority of the offense.  He doubled his scoring average from his freshman to sophomore year, so he could be up for the challenge.  The two guys who really need to step up are guard Kaela King and forward Carrick Felix.  King was a much heralded and celebrated get for the Sun Devils as the #26 recruit in the country going into last year, but really had a disappointing year scoring over 10 points in a game just twice.  Felix originally committed to Duke before pulling out and and coming to Tempe, and like King needs to live up to his pedigree if ASU is going to compete for an NCAA bid this year.

8.  WASHINGTON STATE COUGARS.  Losing a guy like Klay Thompson, who did everything for your team and led the conference in scoring, is always going to sting but you can try to prepare because it was pretty obvious odds were better than 50/50 he'd be heading to the NBA.  What makes it worse is when DeAngelo Castro - double-digit scorer, leading rebounder, and second in the conference in FG percentage - bolts as well to head play professionally in Turkey.  They still have some fire power with second leading scorer and noted chucker Faisel Aden returning to throw the ball at the rim, but the key will be to see if he and junior PG Reggie Moore can co-exist.  Moore looked like a future star in his freshman year, but after Aden arrived he regressed with both Aden and Thompson needing the ball constantly.  If Moore can figure out his role that could be the difference between my 9th place prediction and as high as 7th.

9.  OREGON STATE BEAVERS.  I thought last year the Beavers had a shot to return to relevance for the first time since the days of Corey Benjamin, but alas, it was not meant to be, but at least they had the decency to let everyone know right away by losing to Seattle, Texas Southern, and Utah Valley before the season was a month old.  Just like Gary Sinise I won't get fooled again, but it is hard not to like their guards in Roberto Nelson and Jared Cunningham who are about as athletic as can be with Cunningham averaging nearly three steals per game last season, good enough for fifth in the country.  Really though, this was a bad team last year who did almost nothing well (other than steal the ball), last year's leading assist man averaged just 2.4 per game and is a 280 lb. power forward, and they lost one of their best players from last season with nothing real impressive waiting to step in.  So yeah, not a sleeper.

10.  USC TROJANS.  Last year USC made the tournament on the backs of their twin towers Nikola Vucevic and Alex Stephenson and solid guard play from the trio of Jio Fontan, Maurice Jones, and Donte Smith.  Now both of the bigs are gone along with Smith, and Fontan broke his knee off during the team's trip to Brazil, leaving just Jones and 8 other scholarship players (they also have two transfers eating up schollys who won't be eligible until next year and a season-ending shoulder injury to another guy), only one of whom has played in more than 6 games in his career.  Jones will have a little bit of help coming in with former Iowa forward Aaron Fuller becoming eligible this year and a big JuCo center coming in to rave reviews, but the only way USC is going to do much this year is with their usual solid defense, but not even that will be enough to make them post season relevant this year.   

11.  COLORADO BUFFALOES.  Every so often things come together for even the most moribund of programs and unheralded players improve, diamonds in the rough shine, and for one brief year a school that rarely makes its mark on the basketball world has a huge year.  Unfortunately when that happened for Colorado they somehow managed to bumblefuck it up and ended up in the NIT.  Now their four leading scorers are gone, including two of the better players in school history in Alec Burks and Cory Higgins, and Colorado prepares for the basement once again, but at least it's a brand new shiny basement.  Andre Roberson is a great athlete who led the team in rebounding, blocks, and steals last year and that's pretty much where the positives stop.  I heard it's a fun town though.

12.  UTAH UTES.  Remember when Majerus had Utah running along as a major western power?  Well that's not really relevant here.  Utah fired their coach after four straight losing seasons, which then sent four major contributors from last year's team will eligibility remaining heading for the transfer door which, along with graduations, means a terrible Utah team will now be missing 5 of their top 6 scorers from last season.  They do get back #2 leading scorer Josh Watkins at 15 per game and have a couple of assets most teams don't in a pair of 7-footers in David Foster and Josh Washburn.  Neither is particularly athletic or skilled, but you can't teach size so they'll grab rebounds, block shots, and probably make at least 50% of their lay-ups.


Other previews:
Big 12
ACC
Atlantic 10

Still Going Strong

Awesome job by Oakland.  After a very tough non-conference schedule to get them used to that level of competition they used that experience to absolutely run through the Summit, culminating in an easy tournament win and an NCAA berth.  They are going to be very tough.  There are a few teams in the first round in that 4-5 seed area that I don't think they can handle, but without seeing matchups I'd give them about a 75% chance of a first round victory.

Also of note is Butler's win, a team that everyone will pick as a first round upset winner, which won't happen, and Ark-Little Rock won the Sun Belt, a team nobody will pick to win and they most definitely won't.  Finally, Villanova continued their slide in a loss to South Florida (a great game, actually) and will now be such a low seed that everyone will know they're going to lose.  I really wish they could have maintained a 4 or 5 - easy pick to lose.

BIG TWELVE:  I feel like this conference is a bit underwhelming this year.  Yeah, Kansas is good and a title contender, but the rest?  Meh.  Texas will flame out, Texas A&M sucks, and Colorado probably won't even make the tournament.  I guess Kansas State is sort of exciting in a "can they salvage the season" kind of way but I don't know.  I think I'm going to need Frank Martin to strangle a player/ref/assistant or something to get me jazzed up about the Wildcats.  I guess I kind of like Missouri.

FAVORITE:  Kansas.  Yes, I know Texas smoked them in Lawrence and that was a pretty big deal win, but Kansas doesn't do things like lose to Colorado or Nebraska - practically Texas's M.O. the last few years. 

SLEEPER:   Baylor.  Is this just me refusing to give up on a team that I loved preseason despite all evidence pointing to the fact that they just plain suck, or are the Bears a legitimate sleeping giant, just waiting to go on a run?  I think we all know the answer to that.

W's PICK:  Texas.  Even though I'm fully expected them to be upset in the first weekend of the NCAA Tournament, they are talented enough and dumb enough to get all amped up for this and win it, only to go out and get smoked by Belmont. 

WHO'S DANCING:  Kansas, Texas, Texas A&M, Kansas State, Missouri, Colorado

CONFERENCE USA:  I keep hoping C-USA will be good someday, but I'm starting to think that's just crazy talk.  UAB, UTEP, Memphis, Southern Miss, Tulsa, and UCF were all supposed to be in line for a possible bid this year, but at this point it's looking like UAB is the only team with a shot at an at-large.  I don't know.  I guess I just thought this conference would be better. 

FAVORITE:  UAB.  Solely because they won the regular season title and are the #1 seed.  In reality any one of those teams I mentioned above could easily end up winning this and it wouldn't be remotely surprising. 

SLEEPER:   Central Florida.  They finished C-USA Play at just 6-10, but I'm not exactly sure what happened.  This is still the same team that started the season 14-0 and beat both Florida and Miami.  I have to believe there's a chance they can find that form again, and in a conference with no dominant teams it's wide open.

W's PICK:  Memphis.  It could be any of several teams at the top, but Southern Miss was terrible against the good teams in the conference and UTEP and Tulsa both fattened up their records by playing really easy C-USA schedules, so that leaves UAB and Memphis.  I think Memphis has more talent.

WHO'S DANCING:  Memphis.  If the Tigers win that means UAB didn't make the championship game, something they probably have to do to get an at-large.

PAC 10:  The Pac-10 still sucks but it's at least getting better.  Last year at this time we were wondering if they'd get even two bids, this year they are certain to get three with an outside shot at four.  That being said, it wouldn't be a shocker if they end up 0-for the first round as a conference.  

FAVORITE:  Arizona.  I'm not exactly sure how they ended up winning the regular season title, but I'm pretty sure it has something to do with Derrick Williams.  That dude is pretty unreal, and has basically carried the Wildcats to every big win they've had this year.  It's just too bad for him he's basically all alone out there.

SLEEPER:   USC.  The tournament is in LA, so that's huge for the Trojans, plus they've already beaten UCLA, Washington, and Arizona this year.  There only real problem has been losing to bad teams (swept by Oregon?  Ouch.) but that's something they'll likely avoid with their four seed. 

W's PICK:  Washington.  I don't care about the seven Pac-10 losses, the third place conference finish, or the 2-3 finish to the season - this is the best team in this conference.  They're the most fun to watch, too, so let's hope they don't slip up against on Thursday because that loss might be enough to send them to the NIT.  Which would be a shame, because nobody plays circus ball on Over Saturday like the Huskies.

WHO'S DANCING:  Arizona, UCLA, Washington, USC

SOUTHLAND:  Do you remember the wrestler Sam Houston?  Probably not, because he wasn't really all that big of a deal or any good or anything and was only in the WWF from 87-89 and anybody who watched anything other than the WWF at that time was just wasting their time (the Midnight Rockers had already moved on from the AWA.)  Anyway, guess who his half brother is?  Jake "The Snake" Roberts.  Fascinating.  Also Sam Houston State is in the Southland Conference.

FAVORITE:  McNeese State.  The Cowboys semi-respectable RPI (#163) and what will be over 20 wins if they win the Southland Tournament mean they might be all the way up to a 15 seed.  With absolutely zero chance of beating anybody.

SLEEPER:   Stephen F. Austin.  They are actually a decent defensive team and they play a tempo so slow they're nearly going backwards.  They also have four wins against non D-I schools this year, including an 39-point win over Oklahoma School of Science and the Arts.  Thrilling.

W's PICK:  Sam Houston State.  Jake the Snake man, that dude was awesome.  Not so awesome?  His snake, Damien, starved to death, locked in Jake's garage.  Bad karma, man.  Bad karma.

SWAC:  The Southland's younger, shittier brother, the winner of the SWAC is basically guaranteed a spot in the play-in game because every single team is terrible.  The best team here according to kenpom's statistical breakdown is Jackson State, who ranks #282 out of the 345 teams in D-I.  The bottom of the conference contains teams #344, #341, #340, #337, and #330.  Only Texas Southern and Jackson State have winning records on the season.  These are bad teams.

FAVORITE:  Texas Southern.  Jackson State ranks slightly higher 282 vs. 284, but Texas Southern ran through the league and finished 16-2, which probably means they just showed up for every game.  They did, at least, beat Oregon State, by far the best win by any team in the SWAC.

SLEEPER:   Mississippi Valley State.  They actually have a non-conference win over a D-I team (Georgia Southern), which may not sound like much but it's actually really rare.  Of the 10 SWAC teams only these guys, Texas Southern, Jackson State, Grambling, and Alabama State managed to pull it off.

W's PICK:  Jackson State.  They're fifth in the country in forcing turnovers.  That's the kind of defense that could make them a pesky 16 seed.  Or I'm just flaying about wildly for anything remotely positive to say.

WAC:  Pretty simple here:  Utah State needs to win, and with the way the WAC sets up the tournament they're in good shape with an automatic bye to the semifinals.  Some think they're safe no matter what, others think they can't possibly get an at-large.  I'd say their biggest problems is that no matter who they face, a loss even in the championship is going to be a bad loss - no other WAC team is even inside the top 125 RPI.  So they should probably just win.

FAVORITE:  Utah State.  I just said that.  Their RPI is #17, next best is Boise at #126.  They rank #13 at kenpom.  Next is Boise at #81.  They lost one conference game which was a pretty big fluke to a crappy team.  They're more of a favorite than any other team in any other conference.

SLEEPER:   San Jose State.  There really isn't a whole lot to love about any of these teams, so I'll go with the "who has the most talented players" angle.  Despite going just 5-11, SJSU has the conference's leading scorer (Adrian Oliver), #3 assist man (Justin Graham), and #5 rebounder (Will Carter).  I suppose they could all get hot at the same time.

W's PICK:  Utah State.  It would be a heart-breaking shocker if they don't win this, particularly because they only need to win two games.  I think they're safe even if they don't, but it's better not to play that game with the committee.

WHO'S DANCING:  Utah State

Outside of the bubble teams mentioned above there isn't too much intrigue tonight, so instead watch the most awesomest video ever: