Twins/Gophers/Wolves Pre-July 4th Round-Up

Before the Super-long holiday weekend when everyone disappears for five days, I figured I should do a quick round-up of the three Minnesota sports teams I know about and touch on the biggest story right now.  See, I know (and love) both Gopher Hoops and the Twins, and I'm pretty knowledgeable about the Wolves and the NBA.  I watch the Vikings every Sunday and play fantasy football, but I don't really cover them because I don't consider myself an expert unlike the others I mentioned.  See, unlike some local folks who actually get paid around here, I stick to what I know so I don't end up saying things like whenever Paul Allen and Paul Charchian get together to talk baseball.  Actually that'd be a pretty sweet live blog each week.  I might quit my job and do just that.  Soon I'll be richer than astronauts.  

-  Most importantly, and keep in mind we're still very early in the rumor stage here, but Rich Pitino may already have the wheels turning in a big way on some very good recruits for 2014.  First, there was this:

Me & My Bro @J_Newton20 Thinking Of A Master Plan All Imma Say Is #StayTuned 👌😎
— Isaiah Whitehead (@Isaiah_W15) June 28, 2013

For those who don't know, the Tweeter is Isaiah Whitehead, a 6-4 shooting guard out of Brooklyn who ranks as the #10 SG and #35 overall player by ESPN.  He has offers from Minnesota, Arizona, Kansas, Louisville, Maryland, St. John's, Syracuse, and UCLA.  The re-Tweeter is Ja'Quan Newton, a 6-2 point guard from Philly who ranks as the #13 PG and #67 overall.  He holds offers from Georgetown, Miami, Minnesota, Oregon State, Rutgers, St. Joe's, Syracuse, Temple, Xavier, and Villanova.

If you notice, the only two schools to have offered both are Minnesota and Syracuse.  That would probably be enough to spazz everybody out (myself included), but next came this tweet:

Based on a tweet, a hunch and a little more, changed Crystal Ball picks for JaQuan Newton & Isaiah Whitehead. http://t.co/9AYj29zATo
— Jerry Meyer (@jerrymeyer247) June 28, 2013

From recruiting expert Jerry Meyer who has gotten 13 of 14 commits for 2014 correct, and if you click on the link you'd see he had updated his predictions page to forecast Whitehead and Newton heading to Minnesota.

To add a little more fuel to the fire, Newton and Gopher target Reid Travis were on the Celtics together at the NBPA Top 100 Camp (no, I have no idea what this is) this year, and Newton then sent Travis this tweet

@Reid_Travis_22 follow back Bro
— Ja'Quan Newton (@J_Newton20) June 29, 2013

Does this mean the Gophers should be expected a trio of big-time commits soon?  Yes of course.


-  In the most anticipated arrival of a Twins' pitcher since Les Straker, Kyle Gibson made his debut on Saturday and was inevitably called Gibby by Gardenhire.  He was also pretty solid, going 6 innings and allowing 8 hits, no walks, 2 runs, and striking out 5 while picking up the win which we all know is the real key to evaluating a pitcher so way to go Gibby.  It's super exciting for all us Twins fans because we've been hearing about Gibson forever, he truly has #1-#2 stuff which looks even more better when your team is full of #4 guys, and he struck out five which is actually more than any other Twin on the staff averages in nine innings so yeah and stuff.

Just remember, one start does not a career make.  Using Game Score, Gibson's debut was on par with Liam Hendriks and Pat Mahomes when they made their first starts, and we know how that turned out (ok Hendriks isn't done yet, probably, but the train isn't currently pointed towards Cooperstown or even Decentville.  Actually the best debut by a Twins pitcher since 1970 belongs to Anthony Swarzak in 2009 when he went seven innings and allowed just 5 hits and zero runs.  Do I think Gibson will go the way of Hendriks or Mahomes or Swarzak?  No, not at all.  He put up a good game and has the pedigree and scouting reports behind him that none of those other guys did.  Then again, so did Rick Ankiel, Ben McDonald, and a whole mess of Met's prospects.  This year alone Cardinals stud prospect Michael Wacha pitched a gem his first time out, then got bombed the next time and is back in the minors.  Dan Straily had an awesome debut for the A's last season, but has jumped back and forth from the rotation and AAA since.

Ok, now I'm just depressing myself and realizing I'm preparing myself for disappointment because being a fan of Minnesota sports means being disappointed.  Let's just agree to stop now.

-  When the T-Wolves chose Shabazz Muhammad I wrote on the Twitter, "Yes! Shabazz!" and I was immediately and almost completely savaged (JB of Late Night Hoops was one of the few who agreed with me).  Frankly I was stunned people would hate the pick.  Who else are you going to take at 14?  The afro dude?  There wasn't a single other player available who was remotely interesting.  And looking at the draft there were only a handful of guys with the potential to be all-stars some day:  Bennett, Oladipo, Porter, McLemore, Caldwell-Pope, Carter-Williams (if he learns to shoot), Shabazz (with the right coach), and maybe Shane Larkin.  Once Pope went at 8 the entire draft was in shambles already, trading back and getting a possible future star in Muhammad and an immediate defensive presence in Dieng was a great move.  Seriously, who would you have taken at 14?  If it's anybody other than Shabazz you're really dumb, FYI.

Oh, I get it, you wanted them to keep Burke.  I get it, I really do.  I mean he's so smooth out there.  He looks like he's moving at half speed but is just as fast as everybody else, and he's just got such a good head for the game he's mentally a step ahead.  I know there are some questions about his athleticism and his jump shot, but he's battle tested in the best conference in the land, I'm sure he'll be fine in the NBA.  That's what you're telling yourself, right?  That's what you think?  Well guess what?  Guess who else that describes?

































EVAN TURNER!

Hello exactly.  You could have written the exact same thing about Turner before he was drafted #2 overall by the Sixers three years ago and he's been bust city.  He's been so bad Philly tried to trade him to Phoenix before the draft for the Suns late 1st rounder AND THEY WERE DENIED even though the Suns wing players right now are Jared Dudley, Wes Johnson, P.J. Tucker, and Shannon Brown.  Oh my!  Burke is such a sure thing that a team in desperate need of a PG, the Pistons whose current PGs are Jose Calderon and Brandon Knight and Knight is so bad they're moving him to the 2 next year, who also had a significant home town angle with him chose a shooting guard over him instead.

I'm sorry, but when Caldwell-Pope was taken (over Burke) by the Pistons the Wolves' draft was all fucked up.  Literally the only acceptable answer to the question, "what could have better than what the Wolves did" was "draft C.J. McCollum."  I don't like him as an NBAer and Flip has come out and said that he and the team viewed McCollum as a point guard so they weren't all that interested but I can see where somebody would think he could be a Steph Curry type with less gay.  That's your only answer.  If you have a different one feel free to leave it in the comments but just know that chances are you're a pretty big moron.

- Lastly, Joe Coleman announced he's transferring to St. Mary's.  Other than the Gaels total reliance on the three and commitment to defense it's a perfect marriage.

Game Preview: Gophers vs. Wolverines

When I saw this part of the Gopher schedule (@Illinois, @Indiana, Michigan) I said the Gophers would need to win at least one to prove they were as good as I thought, and anything beyond that would be a bonus.  Now that they got the first one out of the way early and proved themselves to be on equal footing (or at least close) to Indiana (on the road no less), I'm having trouble looking at this Michigan game as anything other than a "must win."  Not a "must win" for the season of course, but I really, desperately, want the Gophers to have that game that truly announces they're a legit Final Four contender.  I know the Illinois game was close, although it's lost some shine after they were stomped by terrible Wisconsin, and on the strength of the overall season and the win over Michigan State and second half against Indiana the national media refers to them as a Final Four contender all over the place, but I want more.  I don't want this to be a Final Four contender upstart type team, I want them to go into the tournament with people picking them to go to the Final Four all over the place.  I want an elite team.  The schedule really thins out after this with four games the Gophers will almost certainly be favored in (@Northwestern, @Wisconsin, Nebraska, and Iowa - although @Wisconsin is never easy), and that is why I really, really want them to win this Michigan game.  Their next chance for a real big win isn't until they go to East Lansing on February 6th.

That being said of course, this is going to be an extremely difficult game for the Gophers.  If college basketball is won and lost with the back court, Michigan is in great shape because they may have the best back court in the country with Trey Burke, Tim Hardaway, and Nik Stauskas.

Burke is a national player of the year candidate and the best point guard in the country.  He's the rare point guard who excels as a distributor (7.1 assists per game, tops in the Big 10) but who also scores in bunches (18 per, 3rd).  He can do this because he's almost unguardable.  He shoots a very high percentage as a guard (52%) because he's able to get easy transition buckets and assists since Michigan simply just does not allow offensive rebounds to their opponents (#2 in the country).  In the half court he can hit the open shot and is also quick enough to beat most other guards and get into the lane, either getting or finding teammates for easy shots.  He's similar to Andre Hollins in that they both really like the step back jumper after getting the defender off balance, and it will be imperative that the Gophers force Burke to settle for long jumpers rather than let him get into the lane the way Ferrell and Oladipo did on Saturday.  I'll say again, keeping Burke out of the lane is the #1 key on Thursday.  Easier said than done, but if the Gopher defense is as good I think it is they should be up for the task.

When Burke drives the other two set up on the wing.  Hardaway has really tightened up his shot selection this year and it's helped him reach career highs in scoring (16.1) and shooting percentage (both 2s and 3s).  The percentage of his attempts that come from three has dropped each year as he's learned not to settle for the contested 3-pointer (which was something you could always count on), and he's about as athletic as it comes when he's running the floor (not Rodney Williams athletic, but human athletic).  Another reason Hardaway may be more judicious with his three-point attempts is he's not needed there as much anymore, because Stauskas has come in as the least heralded of the three Michigan freshman and ended up leading them in scoring (12.7) by being the dead-eye shooter Beilein loves.  Stauskas is hitting 51% of his three-point attempts while leading the conference in makes . With so many weapons for Michigan (Burke, Hardaway, and Glenn Robinson) it's easy for teams to lose track of Stauskas when he spots up, particularly in transition, and he makes them pay.  He's hit a three in every game this year other than their loss to Ohio State on Sunday, and the last time he hit fewer than two in a game was November.  Finding Stauskas and limited to two or fewer made three pointers is probably key #2 for this game.

If Minnesota has a clear advantage it's in the paint, where Trevor Mbakwe and Rodney Williams will match up with Glenn Robinson and Jordan Morgan (and Mitch McGary).  Robinson is 6-6 and 210 and is probably better suited to be on the wing, but he's more comfortable in close (he's not that different than Rodney was last year).  He's another major reason why Michigan ranks #1 in offensive efficiency this year (he shoots 59%), and he's one of only two "good" offensive rebounders on the Wolverines, so keeping him off the glass will be imperative.  Morgan is the other good offensive rebounder Michigan has (he's about on par with Williams), and although he does little else than set picks and grab boards he has the size and strength to battle Mbakwe, although looking at their match-ups from two seasons ago Mbakwe averaged 15 and 9 while Morgan failed to grab a rebound in the game at Williams so maybe that's not as much of a concern.

As far as Michigan's bench goes the main impact guy is McGary, the 6-10, 250 lbs. freshman who was a top 5 recruit this year by pretty much everybody.  He gets a good amount of minutes spelling Morgan and is not only big but an excellent athlete as well.  He's still kind of figuring it out (averages only 5 ppg) but is immensely talented and is absolutely going to have a breakout game one of these days here, let's just hope it isn't this game.  He's an absolute monster on the glass where his offensive and defensive rebounding percentages when he's in the game are actually are better than Mbakwe's and he averages six rebounds per game despite playing an average of just 15 minutes.  He's a fouling machine (averages 6 fouls per 40 minutes) so keeping him off the floor in foul trouble is possible and preferable.

Not much here for the rest of the bench - similar to the Gophers they're very reliant on the starters and have a handful of players who can spot fill minutes (only 9 guys played against Ohio State).  Spike Albrecht is the back-up point guard and Caris Levert the wing guy - both can hit threes at a pretty good clip (38% and 42%).  Jon Horford is the fourth big guy off the bench, but at this point is still known more for defense than offense, and everyone else is a deep bench guy where if we see much of them on Thursday either the Gophers have done something right or something very, very wrong.

I admit, I thought the Gophers had a better chance of winning in Bloomington than they did beating Michigan, even at home.  This Wolverine team legitimately might be the best in the entire country, and Burke is just ridiculous guiding that offense.  They never, ever turn it over (2nd best in the country), shoot 58% from two (5th) and 39% from three (19th) with four of their top six guys shooting 52% from the floor or better and of the six guys who have taken the most three pointers five of them hit at least 37% including the #2 guy in the Big Ten.  In order to win this game the Gophers are going to have to score, which is possible because Michigan isn't nearly as elite defensively as offensively (although they're still very good), but could be difficult because, as I said, Michigan simply does not allow offensive rebounds to their opponents and that's been a huge weapon for the Gophers.  The good news is that Michigan has been sub-par creating turnovers this year as well as defending the two-point shot, so Minnesota should have opportunities to score plenty, and perhaps will actually take care of the ball going against an opponent who is not particularly adept at taking it.

One other interesting stat of note is that the Gophers play at a significantly faster tempo than Michigan, and they should try to push it as often as possible on Thursday.  Although Michigan puts up a ton of points they do so mostly through their efficient half court offense rather than by pushing tempo and getting quick shots.  It seems counter intuitive with a point guard like Burke, shooters like Stauskas and athletes like Hardaway and Robinson, but Michigan prefers not to run.  So in the half court we're going to see the most efficient offense in the country against the 19th best defense.  Man this game is huge.

Because Michigan's complimentary players can score so efficiently, the big key here will be for the Hollins brothers to handle Burke in one-on-one situations so the help defense doesn't get sucked in, leading to open shots.  If they can limit him to a lot of long, step-back type jumpers that are contested it will go a long way to giving the Gophers the opportunity to win this game.  This is Andre Hollins' chance to announce himself to the world.  He's been noticed, but it's time to become a household name.  Even as I started typing this I was planning on picking Michigan to win, but the more I type and the more I think the more I remember how the Gophers stormed back against Indiana in that second half.  That, more than anything, showed me what kind of team this is.  Then there's the Michigan State game.  And the Northwestern game.  And the Illinois game.  This is a different team than we're used to, I'm convinced of it.  Home game, versus a top team?  I changed my mind.  They're gonna do it.

Minnesota 77, Michigan 72.

Of course, if they get off to another horrific start all bets are off.

Week in Review - 1/3/2012

I was considering doing a "Year in Review" post, like similar to the usual week in review but covering the whole year.  But then I realized that would require me writing about things that happened like, months ago and years of heavy drinking and glue sniffing have made my memory really similar to that Memento guy and so I said eff it.

And really, other than highlighting an awesome guy and a sucky guy from the Gopher game on Sunday I don't really have much to say about the Gophers' two games this week (partially because I didn't watch most of the Illinois game.)  They were expected to lose both games and did, while not embarrassing themselves in the process.   What I'm really not sure what to think about are how the team has had chances to win both games and blew them both.  If Julian Welch makes two free-throws, or even one, rather than missing the front end of a one-and-one in regulation against Illinois they probably win that game (certainly with two, maybe with one).  If Welch makes an open lay-up in the first OT, they might win that game.  If Rodney Williams knocks down a wide open three-pointer against Michigan we head to overtime.  And if the team gets a good shot instead of a shot clock violation on their second-to-last possession, maybe the result is different (this one I blame on Tubby - nice playcall).

On the one hand, they were in both games and absolutely could have won either or both.  On the other hand, they won neither and failed to capitalize on any of the opportunities that came their way.  Since they weren't expected to win either game I'm going to choose to make no changes to my opinion of this team as a deeply flawed squad that has enough ability to be in the hunt for an NCAA bid as long as they make no mistakes (like losing to Iowa - suck it, Badgers) and win a game or two that they probably shouldn't.  They had chances to steal two of those wins this week and whiffed.  Hopefully they find a way to take advantage next time.


WHO WAS AWESOME


1.   Ricky Rubio. Moral victories are for grandmas, sissies, and liberals so I'm really glad they beat the Mavs because I'd feel kind of weird talking up Rubio if the Wolves were sitting at 0-3, but I'd probably do it anyway because oh my god Ricky Rubio is so awesome he makes me crap my pants. Dude sees the court like a mofo.  No, seriously, he's incredible.  The way his head is always up and some of the angles and passes he sees are un-freaking-real.  A lot of point guards can make a great pass hear and there, but I've seriously never seen anyone like this since Magic Johnson.  Yeah, you heard me.  Name another PG that sees the court the way Magic and Rubio did/do?  Stockton?  Every single assist he had was on a pick-and-roll and was the exact same pass (you can look it up).  Paul?  Please.  Nash?  Poor man's Rubio.  He's just so good.  We'll see about his defense and shooting in the future, but his passing is like whoa.  Plus Ricky's even contagious because I saw Beasley pass up an open jumper to try to find a teammate for a lay-up against the Mavs.  No, seriously it happened.  Of course he turned it over by throwing it into traffic, but, like self-exploration, it's the thought that counts. [and then tonight, after I wrote this, they go and dominate the Spurs in a game they led wire-to-wire.  Can you say playoffs?  I'm seeing playoffs.]

2.  Alamo Bowl.  If you like stuff like defense and tackling you probably hated the Alamo Bowl and are also probably like 60 years old and drink sherry because that was freaking awesome.  Baylor 67, Washington 56 in mother effing regulation are you kidding me?  A bowl record for yardage, touchdowns, points, and "are you freaking kidding me" moments - how could you not love it?  Baylor had three guys rush for over 100 yards, while Washington QB Keith Price waited until this bowl game to have the best game of his career, throwing for 438 yards and 4 TDs and rushing for three more scores.  Fun fact:  This was just Price's second career game with 300+ yards, second game with 4 TDs and no picks, and those 3 rushing TDs were the first 3 of his career - not his first 3 TD game, the first 3 rushing TDs ever.  Just a crazy entertaining game in every way, and anything that gets cranky curmudgeons all up in arms whining about the days of leather helmets and 6-3 ball games ok in my book.  Suck it, grandpa.  Go listen to some Mellancamp.

3.  Trey Burke.  Son of a whore is this kid good.  I don't even think I can blame the Gophers for this one because so much of what he did was just knocking down shots after creating space for himself.  Obviously he's not going to shoot 8-11 from the floor very often, but his 46% from the field so far this year is pretty solid for somebody who takes as many mid-range jumpers as he does, particularly for a freshman, and his 76% free throw accuracy this year says he's probably going to be a very solid shooter who is just going to get better.  Which depresses me immensely.  You know where Burke was on Rivals Top 100 list?  #142.  You know where Andre Hollins and Joe Coleman were?  #110 and #121.  I like some of what I've seen from those two, but they are NO WHERE near Burke.  God damn Beilein.  

4.  Spencer Hawes and Kyle Lowry.  This is more representative of any player who is having a crazy good start to the NBA season but Hawes and Lowry stand out to me because Hawes is averaging 12.5 rebs per game so far and Lowry is leading the league with 11.5 assists per game.  You know in a shortened season with basically no training camp you're going to see some weird things, and I suppose you could have seen Lowry coming, especially with Aaron Brooks out of the picture, but Hawes?  Guy had the look of a career back-up and another big white stiff since he came out of Washington, and is suddenly shooting 68% from the floor after being a 47% career shooter with career highs in points and that massive jump in rebounds (career just 5.6 per game).  Did he suddenly get it?  Doubtful.  It's not like he had anybody blocking his development, so I'm going with fluky fluke.

5.  Indiana Hoosiers.  How can I possibly leave them off after the beat Ohio State, which now means they've beat the #1 and #2 teams in the country this season (or that's what they were ranked when the Hoosiers beat them).   What's most amazing to me is that it's basically the exact same team from the last couple of years when they were terrible.  The only real change was the addition of Zeller, and although I'm really impressed with him (as documented somewhere within this stupid blog), he shouldn't be able to just suddenly make a terrible team good.  Did Jordan Hulls and Verdell Jones suddenly become good?  No, of course not.  So I don't know.  Maybe Zeller is that good.  Maybe Tom Crean deserves a hell of a lot of credit.  Maybe it's the whole Victor Oladipo thing.  I don't know because I haven't watched Indiana yet this year, but I'm thinking I should probably want to do that.


WHO SUCKED

1.  Ralph Sampson.  Have you ever seen a big man more passive when he gets the ball on the block?  It's like that center in that Simpsons episode about soccer - wing passes to center, center holds it, holds it, holds it.  Every time just looking to pass, waiting for the double team.  Almost hoping for that second defender like a chubby 17-year old girl staring at the phone just hoping that really cute boy will call (ok fine, chubby dude and cute girl and it was me, you happy now?).  I looked at the box score for that Illinois game that I didn't really watch and saw Ralph had 19 shot attempts.  19!  How is that even possible?   What happened?  That's a career high in shot attempts, the first time he's hit double figure attempts this year (you cannot make a big enough question mark/exclamation point combination for that one), and just the second time in his career he's topped 14 FGAs in a game.  The last time?  Last year against Illinois when he had 17 attempts.  I'd say he must like the matchup against Illinois but their front line is completely different this year so you fucking figure it out.  I give up on this mess.  He now joins Voshon Lenard's senior year, Michael Bauer''s senior year, Rick Rickert, Adam Boone, and Antoine Broxsie on the most disappointing Gophers ever list.

2.  Brock Lesnar. As you know if you pay a shockingly creepy amount of attention to the things I write you know that I used to be like way into boxing and am trying to get back into boxing and/or UFC or MMA or whatever you call it.   Well I watched it again on Friday night and I saw some fairly entertaining undercards (Nate Ortiz omg hi 2 u) and then the main event happened and oh my Tebow.   I wish we were having an actual conversation right now because I'd be all like "did you see that" and you'd either be like "yeah dude wtf" and we'd high five or you'd be like "no dude, what happened" and we'd high five.  Basically Lesnar came out, clearly didn't want to be there, looked terrified like a little bunny, got kicked in the ribs, fell down, and instead of trying to get up he just covered his face with his hands either to cry or to try to block the 83 haymakers the other dude landed on his noggin before the ref mercifully ended the fight (maybe both).  Then he quit the sport.  It was, well, not very impressive to say the least.

3.  Wisconsin Badgers.  Hahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha.   OMG.  hahahahahahahahahahahaha.  Iowa?  You lost to Iowa at home?  Oh my god so awesome.  I knew the Badgers sucked this year.  3-28 from three.  Awesome.  And Iowa isn't even good at defending against the three-pointer.  Nice offense, Bo Ryan.  You know it's ok to drift inside the arc from time to time, right?  So awesome.

4.  Pitt Panthers.  For whatever reason, behind Wisconsin, Iowa, and Duke on my most hated basketball schools list sits Pitt, so this pretty epic collapse they have going on is yet another loss, this time to Cincy, and this time at home.  That loss follows an embarrassing home loss to Wagner and a road loss at dreadful Notre Dame.  You may recall that Pitt started the year ranked 10th and won eleven of their first twelve games, so this is quite the slide.  Turns out when you forget how to shoot, don't take care of the basketball, and play terrible defense you end up losing a bunch of games.  Hell, at least the Gophers play defense (sort of).


5.  Florida Gators.  Since I consider Florida to be a legit sleeper to win the NCAA Tournament their loss earlier this week against Rutgers, one of the worst teams in the Big East, was a bit troubling.  Both teams are pretty heavily backcourt dependent, so you'd think this would play right into the Gators' hands, but it wasn't meant to be.  Although Florida's guards (Brad Beal, Kenny Boynton, Mike Rosario, and Erving Walker) scored a total of 55 points it came on just 18-53 shooting, they turned it over 15 times to just 10 assists, and they allowed Rutgers guards (also four dudes) to score 74 points on 31-57 shooting and they dished 15 assists to just 7 turnovers.  I know they say Rutgers gym is a tough place for visiting teams to play (and I only remember that from way back when Quincy Douby was there and the team was decent), but this shakes my confidence in my sleeper team a little.  On the other hand it's tough to believe all four of those guards will play poorly on the same night again.  It would be like lightning striking twice, although if you ask that dude from The Great Outdoors that happens all the time.


I was gonna put something else here but it's really late and I'm still watching this damn Fiesta Bowl so I don't feel like it anymore.

Preview: Gophers vs. Wolverines

So we move on from the disappointments of the Illinois game and up next is another road game against a slightly worse opponent in the Michigan Wolverines.  Yes, slightly worse.  Because although Michigan is ranked higher than Illinois in the polls (16 vs. 27), kenpom has Illinois a little bit better (46 vs. 52) and Illinois is significantly better in the RPI (20 vs. 59).  If you're like me and wondering why you haven't heard anything about Michigan even though they were supposed to be like so awesome its the same reason their RPI is so crappy - they haven't played anyone since December 3rd (wins over Oakland, Arkansas-Pine Bluff, Alabama A&M, and Bradley since then - all terrible teams).  So, again, this makes them kind of hard to evaluate.

By now you know the basic drill with a John Beilein team - shoot a ton of threes coming from every single player/position on the court, a lot of ball movement, and mediocre man-to-man defense.  This is year is no exception with one major wrinkle - the Wolverines, although still one of highest volume shooting three-point teams, have become extremely efficient on TWO pointers.  This year they are hitting at 59.2% from two, tops in the nation.  Notable in this is that all eight players who matter on this team hit at least 51% from two.  So they got that going for them.

Despite their efficiency inside the arc, Michigan still lives and dies outside of it and as such their guards are the key and they have two really, really good (but not quite great) ones in Trey Burke and Tim Hardaway. 

Burke, although just a freshman, is probably the best player on the team.  He's their second leading scorer at 13 per game, leading assist guy with 5 per (ranks 3rd in b10), and chips in 3 boards and a steal per game.  His turnovers are a little high at nearly 3 per game, but that's not out of line for a freshman point guard and his nearly 2-to-1 assist ratio is a nice number.  He's an excellent penetrator (just like me, ask your mom), and can finish at the rim or kick-out to a teammate and is a solid shooter anywhere on the floor.  I wouldn't have thought it possible but he's stepped in for the departed Darius Morris and Michigan hasn't missed a beat.

Although Burke might be their best player, Hardaway is almost certainly their most important simply because he dominates the ball as much as he does.  So far this year he's done well, ranking in the top 500 in basically every advanced offensive metric other than the rebounding ones and he's mainly upped his effectiveness by shooting better from two (58% this year compared to 48% last year) and contributing more assists (2.9 vs. 1.7).   He's still a terrible chucker overall (33% from three this year, 37% last year, and leads the team in three-point attempts) but he's masked that with his ability to get to the rim and the line this year.  The Gophers would be wise to coax him into jacking up a ton of threes rather than having him gain confidence getting to the rim.  You're taking a chance that he'll put up something like the 5-9 from 3 performance he put up against Oakland, but you're also better off betting that won't happen and keeping him away from the paint.  He's a chucker, let him chuck and hope the percentages play themselves out the way they should.

Michigan has three other guys who can hurt you - Evan Smotrycz, Jordan Morgan, and Zack "8th year" Novak.  Smotrycz is a 6-9 "power" forward who is third on the team in scoring (11.7) and leads in rebounds (6.7) despite being a perimeter playing nancy boy forward who spends more time outside the 3-point line than Ralph Sampson.  He's been on fire lately, averaging over 18 a game over his last four, but he's done it by being unconscious from deep (15-19 in those four games, not a misprint).  Obviously there's no way he can keep that up, but considering he gets most of his points from three the Gophers would do well to be sure his crazy shooting streak stops.

The other two, Morgan and Novak, are both technically forwards but couldn't be more different.  Morgan is the model of efficiency, hitting 71% of his shots by never shooting anything other than a dunk or lay-up, and is big (6-8) and strong (240 lbs.).  He also has a tendency to disappear in games and losing playing time in some games due to lack of effort.  That's not an issue with Novak, who is under-sized, under-athletic, and under-talented but makes up for it with Eckstein-ien hustle and grit and an occasionally deft outside shot (which is the majority of his offensive game).  He also manages to grab about five boards per game despite being just 6-4, which goes back to that whole constant effort thing.  Since Novak hit six threes his freshman year against the Gophers they've done a pretty good job of holding him down, but I can't get that six three game out of my head.  So yeah, I'm scared of a 6-4, floppy haired, mediocre athlete.  But in my defense, he is left-handed.

So I guess I really don't know here.  The Gophers are clearly better than I thought, especially against decent squads, based on my predicted massacres at the hands of Va Tech and Illinois which clearly didn't materialize.  I don't know, with Ralph playing well (and in the paint) and with Julian Welch's influence clearly affecting this team they look really, really good.  They can absolutely win this game, and I am very close to predicting them to do so.  The only thing holding me back is that Michigan shoots so many threes and the Gophers are so completely terrible at defending them.  I think that will bite them in the ass, and another winnable road game goes by the wayside.

Michigan 63, Minnesota 60.