I did a live blog of the draft right below here, sort of, but due to stupid kids and a stupid new cat the thing wasn't up to par. I think the previously mentioned entities were having a contest to see who could break me, and the winner was my son who made me give up on watching the draft so somehow negotiate a truce between not letting the cat in his room and not having his door closed. An impossible problem, to be sure, but luckily I am a genius and also a 6-time winner of dad of the year at my house, so I managed. However since I was unable to give the draft my full attention I will rectify that now, mainly because there's no world cup on this afternoon and no baseball so I'm cranky. Let's look at what a few teams did that seemed noteworthy.
- First, you have to start with the hometown 9, and though I don't particularly like the Wolves' draft I can't really blast them either because I understand their thought process. Adding Zach LaVine and Glenn Robinson 3 certainly increases the athletic ability of the team, even if neither put up primo college stats or have, you know, skills. I also think Robinson's athleticism is overrated, and given that he doesn't really have a true NBA position and has a tendency to not try real hard all the time I'm not very optimistic with that pick. LaVine has more potential, and everything I'm reading says he could be one of the top 5-10 players out of this draft, and unlike Aaron Gordon, who sucks at basketball, he does have some skills to go along with that athletic ability. I know potential is potential until something actually happens, but the Wolves have to hit on something at some point, right?
- The Sixers are starting to remind me of the Kansas City Royals. Remember when the Royals had all those top prospects and everybody said in 3 years they'd be great, including myself? Sixers are giving off that vibe, and last night they took Joel Embiid, who is likely at least a year away, and Dario Saric, who will probably stick in Turkey for a couple of years. They also got back a first round pick they had given to the Magic to help facilitate the Dwight Howard trade. Basically they're stockpiling "assets" while assuring themselves of another horrible season upcoming and another high lottery pick - another "asset." At some point you have to actually start doing something, but at least they have a clear plan. It may not work - the Royals are 4.5 out of first place in a bad division and are just 2 games over .500 - but at least it's a plan.
- Sadly, nobody really screwed up their draft which, along with the lack of any real meaningful trades, made it a very boring night. The closest thing to a screw up was the Raptors taking Bruno Caboclo at #20, but I can't pretend I know who he is or if he's any good, I just know he wasn't projected as a first rounder. Their GM seems to pretty much know what he's doing and #20 is a crapshoot anyway, so whatever. Plus who cares? It's Canada.
- Can't believe Bill Simmons is allowed to be such a raging homer on TV. I know people are human and are going to have allegiances, but when somebody like Jalen Rose pulls for Michigan guys he does it in an understated, human way. Simmons is a complete spaz who belongs on a couch watching the draft. Did you see his eye roll when the Hornets traded Napier to the Heat? I don't know, maybe I'm being oversensitive but it just bugs me. Plus when he's on site he can't do his running draft diary, which was always a good time back when he was actually a writer - something he's good at.
- After watching the Spurs dismantle the Heat after coming out of the supremely difficult Western Conference, you'd think teams might take a look at the Spurs business model and try to emulate them. Maybe draft some high basketball IQ guys who will buy into the team concept, pass well, and can shoot. Two guys who fit that model perfectly fell to the end of the first round, both who would be perfect for the Spurs in Kyle Anderson and Cleanthony Early. The Spurs went Anderson, and the Knicks were lucky enough to get Early in the second round (Early could end up the steal of the draft - mark it down). Anderson's going to thrive in San Antonio.
- If you read ESPN too much, you've probably stumbled across John Hollinger's prospect ranking formulas, which generally do a pretty decent job of projecting future value of incoming players in the NBA draft. Hollinger now works for Memphis, but Kevin Pelton still runs the same column and I'm assuming uses the same formulas, or at least very similar maybe with some of his own tweaks. Memphis took Jordan Adams at #22 in a bit of a surprise, then traded a 2016 first round pick to get an early second rounder from Utah to take Jarnell Stokes. Looking at Pelton's column, Adams ranks fifth and Stokes ranks twelfth. Interesting. Last season they didn't have a first rounder, but at pick #41 took Jamaal Franklin, who ranked 21st using Pelton's formula. Seems like you could get a pretty good handle on what Memphis is thinking just by checking out Pelton's column before the draft. I have no idea what you'd do with that information, but I'm going to figure out how to use it for gambling.
- Congratulations to Khem Birch, Chane Behanan, Jabari Brown, Jahii Carson, Alex Kirk, James Michael McAdoo, LaQuinton Ross, Jakarr Sampson, and Roscoe Smith - your early draft entrants who went unpicked. Wait, not congratulations. The other thing. When is the NBDL draft? I bet Carson goes first.
- Did you notice the Charlotte Hornets are starting to do some good things? I mean, a lot of it was luck having Noah Vonleh slip to them and then having PJ Hairston slip to them, but it could get interesting. The talk was they needed a shooter bad and would be very happy to get either Stauskas or McDermott, but then Vonleh was sitting there and they did the smart move, shocking in the NBA I know, and took a potential star in him over getting the shooter they needed in McDermott. Then they were lucky enough to snag Hairston, a great shooter (potentially) and picked up a couple picks from Miami in the process because they were so hot to trot for Napier. So now the Hornets look like this: Kemba/G. Henderson or Hairston/MKG/Vonleh/Al Jefferson.
Jefferson and Vonleh should compliment each other well since Vonleh can do perimeter/high post stuff despite Crean's strategy of never giving him the ball, and Hairston can help open things up since neither Henderson or MKG can shoot. Then they still have Cody Zeller who I haven't given up on, especially since he and Vonleh can talk about how much Crean sucks. Plus they're in the East. I mean it's not great or anything, but at least they're moving in the right direction. Seriously I'm realizing how screwed up the Wolves are since I seem to be totally impressed by any team that seems to have a plan.
- The team I'm not sure has a plan is the Sacramento Kings, and I think it's been that way for a while. They drafted Stauskas the year after drafting Ben McLemore the year after drafting Jimmer Fredette, who is now a Bull. Meanwhile their starting PF is currently Derrick Williams, who did not improve with a change of scenery, and they're paying a lot of money to Rudy Gay (who did, to be fair, play a lot better once he got out of Toronto). Their point guard is Isaiah Thomas, who is a restricted free agent and they're almost going to have to match any offer because their other point guard is Ray McCallum, who I like, but I wouldn't exactly hand the car keys too. Add in their best player is DeMarcus Cousins, who has been a model citizen but has the potential to explode if things keep going shitty, and ti's looking like they will. It's at least comforting to know there's a team that's a mess besides the Wolves. Then again, Cousins hasn't demanded a trade while the GM decides he's just going to stick with him and hope everything turns up sunshine and lollipops. Stupid NBA.
- So to sum up, I hate this draft for the Wolves, but I understand why they did it. I don't expect it to workout, but I'm hopeful. I also desperately want this Kevin Love trade to happen so I can move on and start figuring out how to fix the team, rather than having zero clue where they're going. I mean, you need an entirely different mindset and strategy if if you trade him to Golden State than if you trade him to Boston, and a whole new plan if you trade him to Denver (please god no don't do this). Let's get on with it already, ladies.
Showing posts with label Glenn Robinson. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Glenn Robinson. Show all posts
Sunday, June 29, 2014
Thursday, February 27, 2014
New Mexico, Day 2
Oh my god you guys I am so full I can barely drink all this beer. For dinner we went to this little Mexican dive called El Patio and wow was it good. I got the tacos and ordered a bowl of the green chile stew since that's like the #1 specialty of New Mexico and it did not disappoint. Green chiles, pork, pinto beans, and potatoes in a broth that was insanely flavorful. So, so, so good. You really need to travel to New Mexico to try it. If you don't you're kind of a failure as a human.
- Some weird things I saw in New Mexico today:
- Basically everybody I told I was going to New Mexico made a Breaking Bad joke, which makes sense since Breaking Bad is better than anything else you watch and what else are you going to joke about when New Mexico comes up? One of my co-workers asked our shuttle driver about the Breaking Bad houses and I actually thought he might be all annoyed but he was super proud of the show being shot there and told us how it was such a big thing for the city. So he told us where a bunch of them were. Tonight we checked out Jesse and Jane's place.
- I finally watched Dawger's favorite movie Snatch and $nake's favorite movie Super Troopers last week. I enjoyed them both, but I suspect both get better upon multiple viewings. Snatch because you aren't missing half the joke's trying to figure out what the previous line was, and Super Troopers because it's just one of those movies that gets funnier over time. I'd recommend them both to people, but I'm pretty sure I'm the last one to see either of them.
- Somebody recently asked me for my opinion of Wichita State, sorry I can't remember who because I generally don't pay attention when people talk, and I think they're definitely a good team no doubt, but it's obviously tough to figure out how good. 30-0 is 30-0, and I tend to think they're better than that St. Joe's team (Jameer Nelson/Delonte West) from a while back who went undefeated through the A-10, and they made the Elite 8 (might have been Sweet 16, not 100% and don't want to bother to look it up). Saying I think Wichita State is better than that team, and they already have a handful of guys with Final Four experience, it saying quite a bit.
But Snacks made a great point to me today. Let's say the latest bracketology on ESPN is at least a close approximation of what actually gets pulled in the tournament and Wichita State is a one seed. In the second round then they'd face either Stanford or Kansas State (or similar team), both of whom would be the best team the Shockers have faced since DECEMBER 14, and the second or third best team they've seen the entire season depending on your opinion of BYU. And then the next round, and the next round, and the next round and all the way through they'll be facing teams so much better than anything they've seen with much more pressure and less time to prepare. Wichita's strength of schedule is awful and their non-conference wasn't anything special either. Man that is a ton of pressure. I don't think I can take them any further than the Sweet 16. Not like New Mexico, who is clear Final Four material.
- Just went down to the bar to get a double Maker's because I'm too full for beer. These two dopes get on the elevator with me and start laughing about how they're so wasted and they need to email each others' boss to cover their ass. Guess what? They don't remember they have to hit the button for the floor. I'm on the top floor because I'm awesome and then they realize they never hit their buttons so they hit the five and seven and ended up spending like, 30 extra seconds in the elevator. Way to go, amateurs.
- One of the main reasons I'm out here is to look at this entertainment store called Hastings and maaaaaaaaaaaaaaaan we need to get one in Minnesota. It's like a Best Buy/Barnes and Noble/Shinders/Spencer's/Toys R Us all in one. It's awesome. Plus they buy and sell used stuff and even rent movies for 49 cents a day. I could probably spend all day in one. I have to find a way to make this happen.
- You know that thing called the Peter Principle which says that as people excel in their roles they keep getting promoted until all of a sudden you have a bunch of people in roles they aren't qualified for? Just google it I don't want to explain. Well it generally applies to the working world but it exists in college basketball too. I mean to do a whole big post on this (I'm currently reading Dean Oliver's Basketball on Paper which is excellent and you should read it so my advanced stats brain is like a hamster on blue meth) but exhibit A is the terrible Glenn Robinson III. He was amazingly efficient last year playing his role and using a small amount of possessions for the Wolverines. This year he's using way more possessions but every single metric and is still a terrible rebounder. His raw numbers are in line with what he did last year, but he's really regressed if you look deeper. Definitely not ready for/capable of the more increased role.
I actually thought this same thing would apply to Austin Hollins, but really it doesn't. His overall offensive rating is down a bit, but not all that much, and his rebounding numbers are far better this season. Everything else is right around the same but with assist rate a tick down and turnover rate a tick up. And here's a fun fact I never realized, he's shooting a career high 55% on two-pointers this year, which is a career high and a huge improvement from last year (48%). Yeah he's struggling from three but that's amplified because the team lacks quality shooters, and he's actually taking fewer of them this year (percentage wise). Really, I guess, for those that keep saying he's having a horrible year or is a disappointing senior shouldn't play so much (gopherhole -> hi!), you're wrong.
- One thing I forgot to mention about the Pit is how the people don't get up for you. Like they'll stand on damn near every possession (no joke) but if you get up to go to the bathroom or go get a souvenir or food or anything during a timeout they don't stand up to let you out. Every other arena I've ever been to the people get up to give you room to walk, but at the Pit they just do that thing where they turn their legs to the side and it sucks for everyone. And this wasn't just one group of people, it was everywhere. It struck me as very odd, especially because these people seemed to live for standing up.
- I think that'll do it. So tired and full of delicious green chile stew. I kind of want some more.
- Some weird things I saw in New Mexico today:
- An entire aisle of pinatas in Walmart
- An electronics/movies store with a complete section dedicated to VHS
- A flyer taped to a pole advertising "Mechanical Bull for Rent" with a phone number
- A vending machine for nothing but beef jerky
- Basically everybody I told I was going to New Mexico made a Breaking Bad joke, which makes sense since Breaking Bad is better than anything else you watch and what else are you going to joke about when New Mexico comes up? One of my co-workers asked our shuttle driver about the Breaking Bad houses and I actually thought he might be all annoyed but he was super proud of the show being shot there and told us how it was such a big thing for the city. So he told us where a bunch of them were. Tonight we checked out Jesse and Jane's place.
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| Sup, bitch? |
- Somebody recently asked me for my opinion of Wichita State, sorry I can't remember who because I generally don't pay attention when people talk, and I think they're definitely a good team no doubt, but it's obviously tough to figure out how good. 30-0 is 30-0, and I tend to think they're better than that St. Joe's team (Jameer Nelson/Delonte West) from a while back who went undefeated through the A-10, and they made the Elite 8 (might have been Sweet 16, not 100% and don't want to bother to look it up). Saying I think Wichita State is better than that team, and they already have a handful of guys with Final Four experience, it saying quite a bit.
But Snacks made a great point to me today. Let's say the latest bracketology on ESPN is at least a close approximation of what actually gets pulled in the tournament and Wichita State is a one seed. In the second round then they'd face either Stanford or Kansas State (or similar team), both of whom would be the best team the Shockers have faced since DECEMBER 14, and the second or third best team they've seen the entire season depending on your opinion of BYU. And then the next round, and the next round, and the next round and all the way through they'll be facing teams so much better than anything they've seen with much more pressure and less time to prepare. Wichita's strength of schedule is awful and their non-conference wasn't anything special either. Man that is a ton of pressure. I don't think I can take them any further than the Sweet 16. Not like New Mexico, who is clear Final Four material.
- Just went down to the bar to get a double Maker's because I'm too full for beer. These two dopes get on the elevator with me and start laughing about how they're so wasted and they need to email each others' boss to cover their ass. Guess what? They don't remember they have to hit the button for the floor. I'm on the top floor because I'm awesome and then they realize they never hit their buttons so they hit the five and seven and ended up spending like, 30 extra seconds in the elevator. Way to go, amateurs.
- One of the main reasons I'm out here is to look at this entertainment store called Hastings and maaaaaaaaaaaaaaaan we need to get one in Minnesota. It's like a Best Buy/Barnes and Noble/Shinders/Spencer's/Toys R Us all in one. It's awesome. Plus they buy and sell used stuff and even rent movies for 49 cents a day. I could probably spend all day in one. I have to find a way to make this happen.
- You know that thing called the Peter Principle which says that as people excel in their roles they keep getting promoted until all of a sudden you have a bunch of people in roles they aren't qualified for? Just google it I don't want to explain. Well it generally applies to the working world but it exists in college basketball too. I mean to do a whole big post on this (I'm currently reading Dean Oliver's Basketball on Paper which is excellent and you should read it so my advanced stats brain is like a hamster on blue meth) but exhibit A is the terrible Glenn Robinson III. He was amazingly efficient last year playing his role and using a small amount of possessions for the Wolverines. This year he's using way more possessions but every single metric and is still a terrible rebounder. His raw numbers are in line with what he did last year, but he's really regressed if you look deeper. Definitely not ready for/capable of the more increased role.
I actually thought this same thing would apply to Austin Hollins, but really it doesn't. His overall offensive rating is down a bit, but not all that much, and his rebounding numbers are far better this season. Everything else is right around the same but with assist rate a tick down and turnover rate a tick up. And here's a fun fact I never realized, he's shooting a career high 55% on two-pointers this year, which is a career high and a huge improvement from last year (48%). Yeah he's struggling from three but that's amplified because the team lacks quality shooters, and he's actually taking fewer of them this year (percentage wise). Really, I guess, for those that keep saying he's having a horrible year or is a disappointing senior shouldn't play so much (gopherhole -> hi!), you're wrong.
- One thing I forgot to mention about the Pit is how the people don't get up for you. Like they'll stand on damn near every possession (no joke) but if you get up to go to the bathroom or go get a souvenir or food or anything during a timeout they don't stand up to let you out. Every other arena I've ever been to the people get up to give you room to walk, but at the Pit they just do that thing where they turn their legs to the side and it sucks for everyone. And this wasn't just one group of people, it was everywhere. It struck me as very odd, especially because these people seemed to live for standing up.
- I think that'll do it. So tired and full of delicious green chile stew. I kind of want some more.
Wednesday, January 16, 2013
Game Preview: Gophers vs. Wolverines
When I saw this part of the Gopher schedule (@Illinois, @Indiana, Michigan) I said the Gophers would need to win at least one to prove they were as good as I thought, and anything beyond that would be a bonus. Now that they got the first one out of the way early and proved themselves to be on equal footing (or at least close) to Indiana (on the road no less), I'm having trouble looking at this Michigan game as anything other than a "must win." Not a "must win" for the season of course, but I really, desperately, want the Gophers to have that game that truly announces they're a legit Final Four contender. I know the Illinois game was close, although it's lost some shine after they were stomped by terrible Wisconsin, and on the strength of the overall season and the win over Michigan State and second half against Indiana the national media refers to them as a Final Four contender all over the place, but I want more. I don't want this to be a Final Four contender upstart type team, I want them to go into the tournament with people picking them to go to the Final Four all over the place. I want an elite team. The schedule really thins out after this with four games the Gophers will almost certainly be favored in (@Northwestern, @Wisconsin, Nebraska, and Iowa - although @Wisconsin is never easy), and that is why I really, really want them to win this Michigan game. Their next chance for a real big win isn't until they go to East Lansing on February 6th.
That being said of course, this is going to be an extremely difficult game for the Gophers. If college basketball is won and lost with the back court, Michigan is in great shape because they may have the best back court in the country with Trey Burke, Tim Hardaway, and Nik Stauskas.
Burke is a national player of the year candidate and the best point guard in the country. He's the rare point guard who excels as a distributor (7.1 assists per game, tops in the Big 10) but who also scores in bunches (18 per, 3rd). He can do this because he's almost unguardable. He shoots a very high percentage as a guard (52%) because he's able to get easy transition buckets and assists since Michigan simply just does not allow offensive rebounds to their opponents (#2 in the country). In the half court he can hit the open shot and is also quick enough to beat most other guards and get into the lane, either getting or finding teammates for easy shots. He's similar to Andre Hollins in that they both really like the step back jumper after getting the defender off balance, and it will be imperative that the Gophers force Burke to settle for long jumpers rather than let him get into the lane the way Ferrell and Oladipo did on Saturday. I'll say again, keeping Burke out of the lane is the #1 key on Thursday. Easier said than done, but if the Gopher defense is as good I think it is they should be up for the task.
When Burke drives the other two set up on the wing. Hardaway has really tightened up his shot selection this year and it's helped him reach career highs in scoring (16.1) and shooting percentage (both 2s and 3s). The percentage of his attempts that come from three has dropped each year as he's learned not to settle for the contested 3-pointer (which was something you could always count on), and he's about as athletic as it comes when he's running the floor (not Rodney Williams athletic, but human athletic). Another reason Hardaway may be more judicious with his three-point attempts is he's not needed there as much anymore, because Stauskas has come in as the least heralded of the three Michigan freshman and ended up leading them in scoring (12.7) by being the dead-eye shooter Beilein loves. Stauskas is hitting 51% of his three-point attempts while leading the conference in makes . With so many weapons for Michigan (Burke, Hardaway, and Glenn Robinson) it's easy for teams to lose track of Stauskas when he spots up, particularly in transition, and he makes them pay. He's hit a three in every game this year other than their loss to Ohio State on Sunday, and the last time he hit fewer than two in a game was November. Finding Stauskas and limited to two or fewer made three pointers is probably key #2 for this game.
If Minnesota has a clear advantage it's in the paint, where Trevor Mbakwe and Rodney Williams will match up with Glenn Robinson and Jordan Morgan (and Mitch McGary). Robinson is 6-6 and 210 and is probably better suited to be on the wing, but he's more comfortable in close (he's not that different than Rodney was last year). He's another major reason why Michigan ranks #1 in offensive efficiency this year (he shoots 59%), and he's one of only two "good" offensive rebounders on the Wolverines, so keeping him off the glass will be imperative. Morgan is the other good offensive rebounder Michigan has (he's about on par with Williams), and although he does little else than set picks and grab boards he has the size and strength to battle Mbakwe, although looking at their match-ups from two seasons ago Mbakwe averaged 15 and 9 while Morgan failed to grab a rebound in the game at Williams so maybe that's not as much of a concern.
As far as Michigan's bench goes the main impact guy is McGary, the 6-10, 250 lbs. freshman who was a top 5 recruit this year by pretty much everybody. He gets a good amount of minutes spelling Morgan and is not only big but an excellent athlete as well. He's still kind of figuring it out (averages only 5 ppg) but is immensely talented and is absolutely going to have a breakout game one of these days here, let's just hope it isn't this game. He's an absolute monster on the glass where his offensive and defensive rebounding percentages when he's in the game are actually are better than Mbakwe's and he averages six rebounds per game despite playing an average of just 15 minutes. He's a fouling machine (averages 6 fouls per 40 minutes) so keeping him off the floor in foul trouble is possible and preferable.
Not much here for the rest of the bench - similar to the Gophers they're very reliant on the starters and have a handful of players who can spot fill minutes (only 9 guys played against Ohio State). Spike Albrecht is the back-up point guard and Caris Levert the wing guy - both can hit threes at a pretty good clip (38% and 42%). Jon Horford is the fourth big guy off the bench, but at this point is still known more for defense than offense, and everyone else is a deep bench guy where if we see much of them on Thursday either the Gophers have done something right or something very, very wrong.
I admit, I thought the Gophers had a better chance of winning in Bloomington than they did beating Michigan, even at home. This Wolverine team legitimately might be the best in the entire country, and Burke is just ridiculous guiding that offense. They never, ever turn it over (2nd best in the country), shoot 58% from two (5th) and 39% from three (19th) with four of their top six guys shooting 52% from the floor or better and of the six guys who have taken the most three pointers five of them hit at least 37% including the #2 guy in the Big Ten. In order to win this game the Gophers are going to have to score, which is possible because Michigan isn't nearly as elite defensively as offensively (although they're still very good), but could be difficult because, as I said, Michigan simply does not allow offensive rebounds to their opponents and that's been a huge weapon for the Gophers. The good news is that Michigan has been sub-par creating turnovers this year as well as defending the two-point shot, so Minnesota should have opportunities to score plenty, and perhaps will actually take care of the ball going against an opponent who is not particularly adept at taking it.
One other interesting stat of note is that the Gophers play at a significantly faster tempo than Michigan, and they should try to push it as often as possible on Thursday. Although Michigan puts up a ton of points they do so mostly through their efficient half court offense rather than by pushing tempo and getting quick shots. It seems counter intuitive with a point guard like Burke, shooters like Stauskas and athletes like Hardaway and Robinson, but Michigan prefers not to run. So in the half court we're going to see the most efficient offense in the country against the 19th best defense. Man this game is huge.
Because Michigan's complimentary players can score so efficiently, the big key here will be for the Hollins brothers to handle Burke in one-on-one situations so the help defense doesn't get sucked in, leading to open shots. If they can limit him to a lot of long, step-back type jumpers that are contested it will go a long way to giving the Gophers the opportunity to win this game. This is Andre Hollins' chance to announce himself to the world. He's been noticed, but it's time to become a household name. Even as I started typing this I was planning on picking Michigan to win, but the more I type and the more I think the more I remember how the Gophers stormed back against Indiana in that second half. That, more than anything, showed me what kind of team this is. Then there's the Michigan State game. And the Northwestern game. And the Illinois game. This is a different team than we're used to, I'm convinced of it. Home game, versus a top team? I changed my mind. They're gonna do it.
Minnesota 77, Michigan 72.
Of course, if they get off to another horrific start all bets are off.
That being said of course, this is going to be an extremely difficult game for the Gophers. If college basketball is won and lost with the back court, Michigan is in great shape because they may have the best back court in the country with Trey Burke, Tim Hardaway, and Nik Stauskas.
Burke is a national player of the year candidate and the best point guard in the country. He's the rare point guard who excels as a distributor (7.1 assists per game, tops in the Big 10) but who also scores in bunches (18 per, 3rd). He can do this because he's almost unguardable. He shoots a very high percentage as a guard (52%) because he's able to get easy transition buckets and assists since Michigan simply just does not allow offensive rebounds to their opponents (#2 in the country). In the half court he can hit the open shot and is also quick enough to beat most other guards and get into the lane, either getting or finding teammates for easy shots. He's similar to Andre Hollins in that they both really like the step back jumper after getting the defender off balance, and it will be imperative that the Gophers force Burke to settle for long jumpers rather than let him get into the lane the way Ferrell and Oladipo did on Saturday. I'll say again, keeping Burke out of the lane is the #1 key on Thursday. Easier said than done, but if the Gopher defense is as good I think it is they should be up for the task.
When Burke drives the other two set up on the wing. Hardaway has really tightened up his shot selection this year and it's helped him reach career highs in scoring (16.1) and shooting percentage (both 2s and 3s). The percentage of his attempts that come from three has dropped each year as he's learned not to settle for the contested 3-pointer (which was something you could always count on), and he's about as athletic as it comes when he's running the floor (not Rodney Williams athletic, but human athletic). Another reason Hardaway may be more judicious with his three-point attempts is he's not needed there as much anymore, because Stauskas has come in as the least heralded of the three Michigan freshman and ended up leading them in scoring (12.7) by being the dead-eye shooter Beilein loves. Stauskas is hitting 51% of his three-point attempts while leading the conference in makes . With so many weapons for Michigan (Burke, Hardaway, and Glenn Robinson) it's easy for teams to lose track of Stauskas when he spots up, particularly in transition, and he makes them pay. He's hit a three in every game this year other than their loss to Ohio State on Sunday, and the last time he hit fewer than two in a game was November. Finding Stauskas and limited to two or fewer made three pointers is probably key #2 for this game.
If Minnesota has a clear advantage it's in the paint, where Trevor Mbakwe and Rodney Williams will match up with Glenn Robinson and Jordan Morgan (and Mitch McGary). Robinson is 6-6 and 210 and is probably better suited to be on the wing, but he's more comfortable in close (he's not that different than Rodney was last year). He's another major reason why Michigan ranks #1 in offensive efficiency this year (he shoots 59%), and he's one of only two "good" offensive rebounders on the Wolverines, so keeping him off the glass will be imperative. Morgan is the other good offensive rebounder Michigan has (he's about on par with Williams), and although he does little else than set picks and grab boards he has the size and strength to battle Mbakwe, although looking at their match-ups from two seasons ago Mbakwe averaged 15 and 9 while Morgan failed to grab a rebound in the game at Williams so maybe that's not as much of a concern.
As far as Michigan's bench goes the main impact guy is McGary, the 6-10, 250 lbs. freshman who was a top 5 recruit this year by pretty much everybody. He gets a good amount of minutes spelling Morgan and is not only big but an excellent athlete as well. He's still kind of figuring it out (averages only 5 ppg) but is immensely talented and is absolutely going to have a breakout game one of these days here, let's just hope it isn't this game. He's an absolute monster on the glass where his offensive and defensive rebounding percentages when he's in the game are actually are better than Mbakwe's and he averages six rebounds per game despite playing an average of just 15 minutes. He's a fouling machine (averages 6 fouls per 40 minutes) so keeping him off the floor in foul trouble is possible and preferable.
Not much here for the rest of the bench - similar to the Gophers they're very reliant on the starters and have a handful of players who can spot fill minutes (only 9 guys played against Ohio State). Spike Albrecht is the back-up point guard and Caris Levert the wing guy - both can hit threes at a pretty good clip (38% and 42%). Jon Horford is the fourth big guy off the bench, but at this point is still known more for defense than offense, and everyone else is a deep bench guy where if we see much of them on Thursday either the Gophers have done something right or something very, very wrong.
I admit, I thought the Gophers had a better chance of winning in Bloomington than they did beating Michigan, even at home. This Wolverine team legitimately might be the best in the entire country, and Burke is just ridiculous guiding that offense. They never, ever turn it over (2nd best in the country), shoot 58% from two (5th) and 39% from three (19th) with four of their top six guys shooting 52% from the floor or better and of the six guys who have taken the most three pointers five of them hit at least 37% including the #2 guy in the Big Ten. In order to win this game the Gophers are going to have to score, which is possible because Michigan isn't nearly as elite defensively as offensively (although they're still very good), but could be difficult because, as I said, Michigan simply does not allow offensive rebounds to their opponents and that's been a huge weapon for the Gophers. The good news is that Michigan has been sub-par creating turnovers this year as well as defending the two-point shot, so Minnesota should have opportunities to score plenty, and perhaps will actually take care of the ball going against an opponent who is not particularly adept at taking it.
One other interesting stat of note is that the Gophers play at a significantly faster tempo than Michigan, and they should try to push it as often as possible on Thursday. Although Michigan puts up a ton of points they do so mostly through their efficient half court offense rather than by pushing tempo and getting quick shots. It seems counter intuitive with a point guard like Burke, shooters like Stauskas and athletes like Hardaway and Robinson, but Michigan prefers not to run. So in the half court we're going to see the most efficient offense in the country against the 19th best defense. Man this game is huge.
Because Michigan's complimentary players can score so efficiently, the big key here will be for the Hollins brothers to handle Burke in one-on-one situations so the help defense doesn't get sucked in, leading to open shots. If they can limit him to a lot of long, step-back type jumpers that are contested it will go a long way to giving the Gophers the opportunity to win this game. This is Andre Hollins' chance to announce himself to the world. He's been noticed, but it's time to become a household name. Even as I started typing this I was planning on picking Michigan to win, but the more I type and the more I think the more I remember how the Gophers stormed back against Indiana in that second half. That, more than anything, showed me what kind of team this is. Then there's the Michigan State game. And the Northwestern game. And the Illinois game. This is a different team than we're used to, I'm convinced of it. Home game, versus a top team? I changed my mind. They're gonna do it.
Minnesota 77, Michigan 72.
Of course, if they get off to another horrific start all bets are off.
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