Hoops Preview: Gophers vs. Wolverines

Oh hey there.  Been a while.  I didn't mean to not post the entire holiday break, but I was sort of busy and extremely lazy so here we are.  Doesn't matter now though, because I'm back as the Gophers kick-off the Big Ten season, and the real beginning of the Richard Pitino era (hopefully it ends up being an era or something), and I, for one, and absolutely thrilled they're opening the conference season at home against Michigan - it's the perfect measuring stick.  I'm still not exactly sure what to make of this Gopher team, but we should be able to learn a whole lot Thursday night.

Michigan is a good, but not great team, that sits at 8-4 with three completely understandable losses (road games at Duke and Iowa State, home game vs. Arizona) and one weird loss (vs. Charlotte in Puerto Rico).  They rank highly according to kenpom.com at #20, but that's not so much higher than the Gophers (who rank #34).  They're also without their dominant (potentially) big man in Mitch McGary leaving ho-hum guys Jordan Morgan (in his seventh year) and Jon Horford as their only real post players, meaning the Wolverines don't have a clear match-up advantage over the Gophers.  Perfect opponent to open.

If the Gophers in, they'll be in the running for an NCAA bid since this is the kind of game an NCAA tournament team wins.  If they lose, we will know that the NCAA is not a likely result this year.  Pretty simple stuff.  If this was a road game you can't really definitely say you learned anything because road conference games can be super weird, while a home win over somebody like Purdue tells you nothing (though a loss would) and a loss at home to somebody like Ohio State doesn't really tell you anything either, and a win might not either.  But this is pretty simple - Michigan is pretty much the demarcation line between good Big Ten teams and bad ones - so win this game and things look good for the season outlook.

It's also an interesting test in another way because many of the people who criticized the Pitino hire liked to say that the uptempo style he'd like to run wouldn't work in the Big Ten.  Michigan is one of the slowest team's in the country (rank #304) and behind just Wisconsin, Illinois, and Northwestern in the conference.  Michigan doesn't turn it over and they love to shoot the three ball (this is a Beilein team after all), and are quite good at it, so if the press + zone isn't on it's game there is serious potential for Michigan to blow this game open - in fact, I'd say a Michigan double-digit win is actually more likely than a Gopher double-digit win, even if, spoiler alert, I'm going to pick the Gophers to win the game.  This year's Michigan team actually profiles a lot like a typical Wisconsin team, so the Gophers will need to be highly in sync on defense to hold Michigan down.

The Wolverines are lead by one of the most interesting players in the NCAA in my opinion in Nik Stauskas.  With Tre Burke and Tim Hardaway off to the NBA somebody was going to have to step up on this team and many assumed it would be Glenn Robinson.  Although Robinson's scoring is up (14.2ppg vs. 11.0 ppg) it's because he's taking a few more shots and his percentages and efficiencies remain basically the same.  Stauskas, on the other hand, has exploded and completely changed his game.  Last season he was the designated 3-point bomber, this year he's expanded his game and become their go to guy (18.2ppg vs. 11.0ppg).  He's still a major threat from 3 (48% on 5.5 attempts per game), but he's also been taking the ball to the rim more and that's resulted in a lot more free throw opportunities.  He's the rare player who has upped his possessions but upped his efficiency as well, and he's very dangerous spotting up in transition.  Frankly he's terrifying.

Michigan's other threats are all guards as well in freshman point guard Derrick Walton, freshman wing Zak Irvin, and sophomore wing Caris LeVert.  Walton is the team's true point guard, and like most freshmen point guards he's struggled with turnovers and his shot.  He's basically the team's top ballhandler but is also the only turnover prone player on the team, which works out well for the Gophers.  Irvin is a versatile scorer but has basically turned himself into this year's Stauskas, which has to be kind of infuriating for Michigan fans since I feel like he could be so much more.  Then again I suppose you could do worse than 40% on 5.5 three point attempts per game with minimal turnovers.  Finally, LeVert is another primary ball handler and another guy who has upped his usage big time this year (from under 3 shots per game to over 10).  Overall he's been very efficient and, surprise, never turns it over, but he's also been really all over the map in terms of effectiveness as a scorer (his last five games he's scored 24-4-15-1-16).  Not letting LeVert be the third scorer the Wolverines need will be a major key for Minnesota.

Outside of that core there's not much offense to be found.  Spike Albrecht has the ability to hit a bunch of threes (see: first half of National Title game) but mainly has proven himself to be a capable back-up point guard.  As previously mentioned big guys Horford and Morgan grab some rebounds, set some picks, and can block some shots (which is where they'll mostly be effective against the Gophers - turning back guard penetration).  Horford is a little more versatile as he has a little bit of a jump shot while Morgan has none, but neither should make any kind of major impact on the game offensively.

In a lot of ways this Michigan team is built to take apart a team that plays the way the Gophers do - slow it down, don't turn it over against the press, and exploit the open three-point opportunities which will present themselves against the zone and in transition.  I'd actually really like to see the Gophers mix in a good bit of man-to-man in this game since I don't think Michigan can take advantage of any mis-matches, but a well drilled zone team can shut down a 3-point team as well by closing out on threes and making the offense take bad shots (see: Syracuse vs. Villanova).  Should be fun to see.

Basically if the Gophers are a NCAA Tournament caliber team they'll win this game.  If they don't win this game, most likely they aren't a NCAA Tournament team.  I believe that either the zone will work, or Pitino is a good enough coach and a coach willing to make changes that the Gophers will end up in a man-to-man and I think the advantage shifts to the Gophers in that case.  I choose to believe.

Minnesota 74, Michigan 66

Also, before we get to the pictures, check out this Gopher Hoops Rube Roundtable including yours truly put together by the guys over at From the Barn, a tradition in it's third year (I did not participate last season because I completely forgot).  Anyway, it's good stuff, check it out. 

Game Preview: Gophers vs. Wolverines

When I saw this part of the Gopher schedule (@Illinois, @Indiana, Michigan) I said the Gophers would need to win at least one to prove they were as good as I thought, and anything beyond that would be a bonus.  Now that they got the first one out of the way early and proved themselves to be on equal footing (or at least close) to Indiana (on the road no less), I'm having trouble looking at this Michigan game as anything other than a "must win."  Not a "must win" for the season of course, but I really, desperately, want the Gophers to have that game that truly announces they're a legit Final Four contender.  I know the Illinois game was close, although it's lost some shine after they were stomped by terrible Wisconsin, and on the strength of the overall season and the win over Michigan State and second half against Indiana the national media refers to them as a Final Four contender all over the place, but I want more.  I don't want this to be a Final Four contender upstart type team, I want them to go into the tournament with people picking them to go to the Final Four all over the place.  I want an elite team.  The schedule really thins out after this with four games the Gophers will almost certainly be favored in (@Northwestern, @Wisconsin, Nebraska, and Iowa - although @Wisconsin is never easy), and that is why I really, really want them to win this Michigan game.  Their next chance for a real big win isn't until they go to East Lansing on February 6th.

That being said of course, this is going to be an extremely difficult game for the Gophers.  If college basketball is won and lost with the back court, Michigan is in great shape because they may have the best back court in the country with Trey Burke, Tim Hardaway, and Nik Stauskas.

Burke is a national player of the year candidate and the best point guard in the country.  He's the rare point guard who excels as a distributor (7.1 assists per game, tops in the Big 10) but who also scores in bunches (18 per, 3rd).  He can do this because he's almost unguardable.  He shoots a very high percentage as a guard (52%) because he's able to get easy transition buckets and assists since Michigan simply just does not allow offensive rebounds to their opponents (#2 in the country).  In the half court he can hit the open shot and is also quick enough to beat most other guards and get into the lane, either getting or finding teammates for easy shots.  He's similar to Andre Hollins in that they both really like the step back jumper after getting the defender off balance, and it will be imperative that the Gophers force Burke to settle for long jumpers rather than let him get into the lane the way Ferrell and Oladipo did on Saturday.  I'll say again, keeping Burke out of the lane is the #1 key on Thursday.  Easier said than done, but if the Gopher defense is as good I think it is they should be up for the task.

When Burke drives the other two set up on the wing.  Hardaway has really tightened up his shot selection this year and it's helped him reach career highs in scoring (16.1) and shooting percentage (both 2s and 3s).  The percentage of his attempts that come from three has dropped each year as he's learned not to settle for the contested 3-pointer (which was something you could always count on), and he's about as athletic as it comes when he's running the floor (not Rodney Williams athletic, but human athletic).  Another reason Hardaway may be more judicious with his three-point attempts is he's not needed there as much anymore, because Stauskas has come in as the least heralded of the three Michigan freshman and ended up leading them in scoring (12.7) by being the dead-eye shooter Beilein loves.  Stauskas is hitting 51% of his three-point attempts while leading the conference in makes . With so many weapons for Michigan (Burke, Hardaway, and Glenn Robinson) it's easy for teams to lose track of Stauskas when he spots up, particularly in transition, and he makes them pay.  He's hit a three in every game this year other than their loss to Ohio State on Sunday, and the last time he hit fewer than two in a game was November.  Finding Stauskas and limited to two or fewer made three pointers is probably key #2 for this game.

If Minnesota has a clear advantage it's in the paint, where Trevor Mbakwe and Rodney Williams will match up with Glenn Robinson and Jordan Morgan (and Mitch McGary).  Robinson is 6-6 and 210 and is probably better suited to be on the wing, but he's more comfortable in close (he's not that different than Rodney was last year).  He's another major reason why Michigan ranks #1 in offensive efficiency this year (he shoots 59%), and he's one of only two "good" offensive rebounders on the Wolverines, so keeping him off the glass will be imperative.  Morgan is the other good offensive rebounder Michigan has (he's about on par with Williams), and although he does little else than set picks and grab boards he has the size and strength to battle Mbakwe, although looking at their match-ups from two seasons ago Mbakwe averaged 15 and 9 while Morgan failed to grab a rebound in the game at Williams so maybe that's not as much of a concern.

As far as Michigan's bench goes the main impact guy is McGary, the 6-10, 250 lbs. freshman who was a top 5 recruit this year by pretty much everybody.  He gets a good amount of minutes spelling Morgan and is not only big but an excellent athlete as well.  He's still kind of figuring it out (averages only 5 ppg) but is immensely talented and is absolutely going to have a breakout game one of these days here, let's just hope it isn't this game.  He's an absolute monster on the glass where his offensive and defensive rebounding percentages when he's in the game are actually are better than Mbakwe's and he averages six rebounds per game despite playing an average of just 15 minutes.  He's a fouling machine (averages 6 fouls per 40 minutes) so keeping him off the floor in foul trouble is possible and preferable.

Not much here for the rest of the bench - similar to the Gophers they're very reliant on the starters and have a handful of players who can spot fill minutes (only 9 guys played against Ohio State).  Spike Albrecht is the back-up point guard and Caris Levert the wing guy - both can hit threes at a pretty good clip (38% and 42%).  Jon Horford is the fourth big guy off the bench, but at this point is still known more for defense than offense, and everyone else is a deep bench guy where if we see much of them on Thursday either the Gophers have done something right or something very, very wrong.

I admit, I thought the Gophers had a better chance of winning in Bloomington than they did beating Michigan, even at home.  This Wolverine team legitimately might be the best in the entire country, and Burke is just ridiculous guiding that offense.  They never, ever turn it over (2nd best in the country), shoot 58% from two (5th) and 39% from three (19th) with four of their top six guys shooting 52% from the floor or better and of the six guys who have taken the most three pointers five of them hit at least 37% including the #2 guy in the Big Ten.  In order to win this game the Gophers are going to have to score, which is possible because Michigan isn't nearly as elite defensively as offensively (although they're still very good), but could be difficult because, as I said, Michigan simply does not allow offensive rebounds to their opponents and that's been a huge weapon for the Gophers.  The good news is that Michigan has been sub-par creating turnovers this year as well as defending the two-point shot, so Minnesota should have opportunities to score plenty, and perhaps will actually take care of the ball going against an opponent who is not particularly adept at taking it.

One other interesting stat of note is that the Gophers play at a significantly faster tempo than Michigan, and they should try to push it as often as possible on Thursday.  Although Michigan puts up a ton of points they do so mostly through their efficient half court offense rather than by pushing tempo and getting quick shots.  It seems counter intuitive with a point guard like Burke, shooters like Stauskas and athletes like Hardaway and Robinson, but Michigan prefers not to run.  So in the half court we're going to see the most efficient offense in the country against the 19th best defense.  Man this game is huge.

Because Michigan's complimentary players can score so efficiently, the big key here will be for the Hollins brothers to handle Burke in one-on-one situations so the help defense doesn't get sucked in, leading to open shots.  If they can limit him to a lot of long, step-back type jumpers that are contested it will go a long way to giving the Gophers the opportunity to win this game.  This is Andre Hollins' chance to announce himself to the world.  He's been noticed, but it's time to become a household name.  Even as I started typing this I was planning on picking Michigan to win, but the more I type and the more I think the more I remember how the Gophers stormed back against Indiana in that second half.  That, more than anything, showed me what kind of team this is.  Then there's the Michigan State game.  And the Northwestern game.  And the Illinois game.  This is a different team than we're used to, I'm convinced of it.  Home game, versus a top team?  I changed my mind.  They're gonna do it.

Minnesota 77, Michigan 72.

Of course, if they get off to another horrific start all bets are off.