Michigan 62, Minnesota 57

Well that sucked.  Another game that looked eminently winnable, and another loss.  0-4 is not a good place to be, but luckily for me I had pretty much prepared myself for this.  Yes, I got sucked in a bit and yes, I felt a bit of rage rising post game, but I beat that shit back like Link fighting Ganon.  Sorry my kids are really into watching me play Zelda games these days.  Anyway, I didn't expect a win, I kind of started to believe, but when the collapse happened I wasn't the least bit surprised and well, I pretty much was just waiting for it.  Here are ten things I liked and didn't like about that Michigan game.

1.  Back door cuts are killing this team.  It happened against Ohio State, it happened against Purdue, and it probably happened against Maryland but I slept through most of that game.  It happened again big time against Michigan.  It doesn't seem to matter if it's man or zone defense, that back door cut is just killing this team. Against Michigan there was a play I actually rewound twice to see if there was a pick, but no, it was just Dre Hollins falling asleep and letting his man go back door.  I don't want to single him out because this is a team wide issue (Carlos hi) but it's a constant problem.

2.  Mo Walker has become so good he's getting hard doubled.  Pretty much every time Walker got the ball on Saturday Michigan sent a second defender, and not in a semi double way in a hard double way.  Walkter had no choice but to pass, basically (which killed my Walker over 13.5 points bet) and it made sense because Michigan doesn't have the personnel to guard him one one hone (which is why I made the bet).  He did a good job handling it and found open teammates enough times where it should have helped, but a staggering majority of those times whoever received the pass wasn't ready to shoot.  Could have made a lot of difference.

3.  I have never seen a team throw the ball directly out of bounds as much as this team.  The Gophers turned it over 17 times in the game, and I swear at least 8 of them were balls just thrown directly out of bounds. Michigan is a decent team at causing turnovers, but this was just out of control.  I gamble kind of a lot (but always within my means!) and a rule I try to follow is never bet on a dumb team.  Baylor, LSU, and any team coached by Bruce Weber usually fall into this.  The Gophers are trending in this direction.

4.  Carlos Morris could end up being really good.  Morris is on a really good run.  Outside of the Maryland game (which I slept through) he's managed to take his chucker tendencies and turn them into scorer tendencies (this difference is not missing as much).  He can hit the outside shot, he loves to drive to the rim, and against Michigan he showed off a very nice post game on a possession which had me like whoa (he did a very nice fake into an up and under which I didn't know he had in him).  Morris can score, and there was little doubt of this from day 1, but he's started doing it in a a way that fits the offense. Next year, when he's the clear #1 option (and he will be) he could seriously end up with a spot on an all Big 10 team.  For real.

5.  That being said, Morris's jump pass is killing me.  One thing you can say about Morris is the boy is confident. When he gets the ball and decides it's scoring time he's going to go to the rim and I am fully in favor of it.  The problems is, besides the sometimes really bad shots, is that if he doesn't have a shot he'll jump and look to pass.  If someone is open he great, good play dude.  But when there's no one around he's suddenly finding himself in the air with nowhere to go.  It's not good.  Or, at best, rarely good.

6.  Derrick Walton's jumper is beautiful.  Is it Ray Allen beautiful?  Of course not, don't be ridiculous, but it's a good looking shot.  I know the stats say the long two is the worst shot in basketball and I don't dispute that, but there are some guys who can just hit it enough to make it worthwhile.  Walton looks like he's going to be one of those guys.  I wish there was a way to get stock on a guy in a way that actually made money, because I'm telling you right now Walton is going to be an absolute superstar by the time he's out of Ann Arbor.  You heard it hear first.

7.  The Gophers got killed on the boards.  I know the final numbers show Minnesota winning the rebound battle, but man they got smoked on so many by a team that's basically running a four guard lineup.  Michigan doesn't crash the o-boards, but the got 31% of their own misses against a season average of 26% (including the Minnesota game).  There were just too many times a Michigan missed shot resulted in the Wolverines keeping the ball, which is a killer against a team that thrives in transition.  On a list of ways to lose the game, giving up offensive boards should have been near the top.  The Wolverines only shot 22% from three, which should have been a big part of a Gopher win, but giving up second chances negated that.

8.  Michigan does a great job of taking away passing lanes.  They did this in both man-to-man and that 1-3-1, but the whoever is on top for Michigan does a great job of making the offense reset.  They don't necessarily try to steal the ball, but whenever a Gopher guard on the wing was trying to pass back to the point the Michigan defender was always in the way, making the pass go much further towards half court than the Gophers would like and effectively making them start the offense over.  When Michigan switched to the 1-3-1 it was even more pronounced, and unfortunately no Gopher other than Nate Mason understood you need to attack the gaps rather than just work it around the perimeter.  Really, Mason impressed me with his understanding of what needed to be done, but he was the only one.

9.  Elliott Eliason is broken.  There as a play as the game wound down where somebody (and I wish I had the game recorded right now to rewatch this) left the ball off for him and it should have been a one dribble and dunk situation.  Instead it resulted in something else bad which I don't remember because he was just so hesitant.  I know he's not a good offensive player, and that's just who he is, but at point Elliott seemed to realize that he could score in the right situation and was seeming to develop into a competent player.  I have no idea what happened to the man, but he's become nothing more than a back-up center who can grab some rebounds sometime.  The difference between who he was early last season and who he is now is staggering, and it's impossible to not wonder what happened with the coaching here.  And yes, this is my first questioning of Pitino and staff I think.  It happens.

10.  I remember talking with someone and saying the Gopher might have the best back court in the conference.  They sure aren't playing like it.  Dre Hollins is basically playing the same as last year statswise, and he's shooting well but he has seemed to resign himself to being a jump shooter and isn't driving anymore (though you'll notice when the team is playing well it's when he's driving more) and Dre Matheiu is turning into a guy who won't shoot, even though he's a good shooter and who can't take care of the ball.  Both are scoring less than last season, and both have disappeared at times.  Despite a hot first half Hollins is still shooting like hell at just 10-46 (7-29 from three) in conference play and he's at 7 assists and 7 turnovers in those games.  Mathieu might even have been worse - he's totaled 17 turnovers in B10 games against just 8 assists.  I think everyone knew that these two were the key to the Gophers' season, and it's turning out that way.  If things are going to get turned around, it has to happen here.

11.  Extending this to eleven just because I have to mention Joey King  Oof.  Didn't shoot well, didn't rebound, and turned the ball over like it was his job.  One key play towards the end of the game he dove for a ball on the ground and gained possession (good!), had enough wits about him to not call timeout since the Gophers were out (smart!), and, despite multiple teammates around him, was unable to get the ball to one of them, leading to Michigan possession (bad!).  It was a huge play at that stage of the game.  I know King is just crazy inconsistent and he's never going to be anything resembling a competent ball handler, but he's been brutal.  Do you realize he has had more than one rebound in just one of the last five games?  He's 6-9 for christ's sake.  Ridiculous.


0-4 is a pretty major hole to dig your way out of, but it can be done.  Kenpom still projected the Gophers to finish the conference season at 8-10, and if they could basically do that but steal just one game they aren't supposed to win (without the corresponding bad loss) that's 9-9 and in the ballpark for an NCAA bid.  They'll probably need to go 10-8 to feel good, which means a whole lot of winning and it starts Tuesday night against Iowa.  The Hawkeyes have been solid this year (11-5) without a single bad loss (Texas, Syracuse, Michigan State, Iowa State, Northern Iowa) and two outstanding road wins (North Carolina, Ohio State).  Yes, they won both at Columbus and Chapel Hill, so I don't think they're going to automatically wilt because it's Williams Arena.  The Gophers will have to play well.  The Hawkeyes like to play fast, so this should be a fun game at least.

Minnesota 80, Iowa 77.

Iowa 75, Minnesota 66

Game Preview: Gophers vs. Michigan

This probably seems like a weird time to come back.  The Gophers are now 0-3 on the Big Ten Season and at this point the only decent wins they can point to are an almost blown win against an ok Georgia team and a win at Wake Forest that we still aren't sure if it's a decent win or a throwaway win.  The team's best player is pretty much in the tank and may or may not be still or newly hurt and the team depth seems to be getting shallower by the minute.  A gritty effort was proven to not be enough, and the team continued the tradition of screwing up end of game possessions, dropping a heart breaker that would have been enough to restore some optimism to the fan base.  It's not a wonderful time to be a fan.

But you know what?  Kind of it is.  The loss to Purdue basically told me everything I needed to know about what kind of team and year this was going to be (and this isn't hindsight, I said so in the preview) so, after a mini-breakdown or tantrum or hiatus or whatever term you prefer, I returned to watch the game against Ohio State with zero expectations, other than expecting the Buckeyes to win.  With lowered expectations comes lower stress levels and in a strange way more of an enjoyable viewing experience.  So after the Buckeye loss instead of being angry about another missed opportunity, I was pleased they hung in there and more of an "aw shucks would have been nice to get that one."  That's not being happy with a moral victory, it's simply accepting reality.  There was almost no way they were going to win that game - Ohio State is about 50 times better than they are - and it would take something miraculous to make the NCAA Tournament.  Once you accept that, it makes this year much easier to swallow.

So with that out of the way, let's move on to Saturday's game at Michigan. The Wolverines have had some much celebrated issues this year - the losses to NJIT and Eastern Michigan - and, well, we still don't really know what's up with Michigan this year.  They started strong with wins over decent Syracuse and Oregon and hung tight with Villanova and everything looked like they'd be ok.  Then came those two horrible losses followed by an absolute drubbing by Arizona.  Since then they've won an overtime home game against Illinois, lost at Purdue, and lost at Penn State.  So who really knows what's up with this team?  I lean towards lower middle tier Big Ten team with very little shot at teh NCAA Tournament, so this should be a pretty even match up.

The bad news is the Wolverines really take care of the ball, and in particular they rarely have it stolen away - the Gophers #1 move.  The good news is they aren't particularly good at anything else.  This isn't one of the great shooting teams of the past few years, although they sure do like to chuck the three.  Of all Wolverine 3-point attempts so far this year, 43.5% of them have been three pointers, and the team makes 35.9% which is a good, but not great number.  Guards Caris LeVert (39%) and Derrick Walton (29%) and wing Zak Irvin (35%) all have over 50 3-point attempts already on the year, and all are capable of putting up either a 5-7 or 1-7 performance.  They rely on those three heavily, and all play 33-35 minutes per game, scoring about 60% of the team's points.  Getting the three to put the ball on the floor and take contested 2-pointers would be an excellent strategy, rather than letting them find open threes.  Anyone helping on a driver off a perimeter shooter should be benched immediately (that includes Spike Albrecht, who doesn't have the volume but hits 40% and needs an open shot to score).

After those four nobody else plays more than 19 minutes per game and you may have noticed those four are all perimeter players so you may be asking "does this mean Michigan is weak inside" and the answer is a resounding yes.  The only size on the team comes from three freshmen - 6-7 Kam Chatman, 6-9 Mark Donnal, and 6-9 Ricky Doyle and although the three have been better than I expected (combined 50 minutes, 16 points, 9 rebounds per game) they still aren't much of an inside presence.  They don't block any shots (Michigan is 335th in the country in block rate) or grab any offensive rebounds (322nd), though they do protect the defensive glass well overall (40th).  Mo Walker should (SHOULD!) be in line for a pretty big game.

All-in-all to me it looks like a pretty even matchup, and that includes the Wolverines' home court advantage.  The Gophers should be able to feast inside, while Michigan will have plenty of chances to hit outside shots.  I think if the Gophers let the pressure of being 0-3 get to them, they'll do stupid things and miss open shots.  If they're relaxed and playing ball, they'll win.  This one's on Pitino.

And I still believe.

Minnesota 69, Michigan 66

Hoops Preview: Gophers vs. Wolverines

Oh hey there.  Been a while.  I didn't mean to not post the entire holiday break, but I was sort of busy and extremely lazy so here we are.  Doesn't matter now though, because I'm back as the Gophers kick-off the Big Ten season, and the real beginning of the Richard Pitino era (hopefully it ends up being an era or something), and I, for one, and absolutely thrilled they're opening the conference season at home against Michigan - it's the perfect measuring stick.  I'm still not exactly sure what to make of this Gopher team, but we should be able to learn a whole lot Thursday night.

Michigan is a good, but not great team, that sits at 8-4 with three completely understandable losses (road games at Duke and Iowa State, home game vs. Arizona) and one weird loss (vs. Charlotte in Puerto Rico).  They rank highly according to kenpom.com at #20, but that's not so much higher than the Gophers (who rank #34).  They're also without their dominant (potentially) big man in Mitch McGary leaving ho-hum guys Jordan Morgan (in his seventh year) and Jon Horford as their only real post players, meaning the Wolverines don't have a clear match-up advantage over the Gophers.  Perfect opponent to open.

If the Gophers in, they'll be in the running for an NCAA bid since this is the kind of game an NCAA tournament team wins.  If they lose, we will know that the NCAA is not a likely result this year.  Pretty simple stuff.  If this was a road game you can't really definitely say you learned anything because road conference games can be super weird, while a home win over somebody like Purdue tells you nothing (though a loss would) and a loss at home to somebody like Ohio State doesn't really tell you anything either, and a win might not either.  But this is pretty simple - Michigan is pretty much the demarcation line between good Big Ten teams and bad ones - so win this game and things look good for the season outlook.

It's also an interesting test in another way because many of the people who criticized the Pitino hire liked to say that the uptempo style he'd like to run wouldn't work in the Big Ten.  Michigan is one of the slowest team's in the country (rank #304) and behind just Wisconsin, Illinois, and Northwestern in the conference.  Michigan doesn't turn it over and they love to shoot the three ball (this is a Beilein team after all), and are quite good at it, so if the press + zone isn't on it's game there is serious potential for Michigan to blow this game open - in fact, I'd say a Michigan double-digit win is actually more likely than a Gopher double-digit win, even if, spoiler alert, I'm going to pick the Gophers to win the game.  This year's Michigan team actually profiles a lot like a typical Wisconsin team, so the Gophers will need to be highly in sync on defense to hold Michigan down.

The Wolverines are lead by one of the most interesting players in the NCAA in my opinion in Nik Stauskas.  With Tre Burke and Tim Hardaway off to the NBA somebody was going to have to step up on this team and many assumed it would be Glenn Robinson.  Although Robinson's scoring is up (14.2ppg vs. 11.0 ppg) it's because he's taking a few more shots and his percentages and efficiencies remain basically the same.  Stauskas, on the other hand, has exploded and completely changed his game.  Last season he was the designated 3-point bomber, this year he's expanded his game and become their go to guy (18.2ppg vs. 11.0ppg).  He's still a major threat from 3 (48% on 5.5 attempts per game), but he's also been taking the ball to the rim more and that's resulted in a lot more free throw opportunities.  He's the rare player who has upped his possessions but upped his efficiency as well, and he's very dangerous spotting up in transition.  Frankly he's terrifying.

Michigan's other threats are all guards as well in freshman point guard Derrick Walton, freshman wing Zak Irvin, and sophomore wing Caris LeVert.  Walton is the team's true point guard, and like most freshmen point guards he's struggled with turnovers and his shot.  He's basically the team's top ballhandler but is also the only turnover prone player on the team, which works out well for the Gophers.  Irvin is a versatile scorer but has basically turned himself into this year's Stauskas, which has to be kind of infuriating for Michigan fans since I feel like he could be so much more.  Then again I suppose you could do worse than 40% on 5.5 three point attempts per game with minimal turnovers.  Finally, LeVert is another primary ball handler and another guy who has upped his usage big time this year (from under 3 shots per game to over 10).  Overall he's been very efficient and, surprise, never turns it over, but he's also been really all over the map in terms of effectiveness as a scorer (his last five games he's scored 24-4-15-1-16).  Not letting LeVert be the third scorer the Wolverines need will be a major key for Minnesota.

Outside of that core there's not much offense to be found.  Spike Albrecht has the ability to hit a bunch of threes (see: first half of National Title game) but mainly has proven himself to be a capable back-up point guard.  As previously mentioned big guys Horford and Morgan grab some rebounds, set some picks, and can block some shots (which is where they'll mostly be effective against the Gophers - turning back guard penetration).  Horford is a little more versatile as he has a little bit of a jump shot while Morgan has none, but neither should make any kind of major impact on the game offensively.

In a lot of ways this Michigan team is built to take apart a team that plays the way the Gophers do - slow it down, don't turn it over against the press, and exploit the open three-point opportunities which will present themselves against the zone and in transition.  I'd actually really like to see the Gophers mix in a good bit of man-to-man in this game since I don't think Michigan can take advantage of any mis-matches, but a well drilled zone team can shut down a 3-point team as well by closing out on threes and making the offense take bad shots (see: Syracuse vs. Villanova).  Should be fun to see.

Basically if the Gophers are a NCAA Tournament caliber team they'll win this game.  If they don't win this game, most likely they aren't a NCAA Tournament team.  I believe that either the zone will work, or Pitino is a good enough coach and a coach willing to make changes that the Gophers will end up in a man-to-man and I think the advantage shifts to the Gophers in that case.  I choose to believe.

Minnesota 74, Michigan 66

Also, before we get to the pictures, check out this Gopher Hoops Rube Roundtable including yours truly put together by the guys over at From the Barn, a tradition in it's third year (I did not participate last season because I completely forgot).  Anyway, it's good stuff, check it out.