I suppose I saw this coming as a loss, which is why I bet Ok State -3, which is why Nate Mason's late lay-up instead of some desperate three clanging off the rim was a double killer. You either want the Gophers to win, or to win your bet. When neither happen it just sucks. Like the team this year. Anyway, here are 10 things I liked and didn't like (disclaimer: may not get to 10 because meh).
1. The defense was much better for most of the game. There were lapses of course, but in general the defense seemed much better both from an effort and a scheme stand point. The Gophers extended their zone out, way out, compared to usual in order to kind of take away the easy three pointer, and at the same time whoever was the anchor, Bakary Konate or whoever, laid back near the rim to discourage lay-ups. This forced the Cowboys into taking a lot of long twos, which is what you want. Considering Ok State shot a worse percentage from both 3 and 2 than the Gophers are allowing on the season I'd say it was a success. I want to see this exact defense in every game forever.
2. Kind of related to the effort and scheming on defense, the offense was much more active. It's like Pitino went into the lab on both offense and defense to change things up, and even though the Gophers shot like poop you could at least see more offense going on. Lots of off the ball screening, many times with a wing zooming from one side of the court all the way to the other, and far less reliance on pick and rolls. This helped facilitate a lot more ball movement than we've seen lately and will only make the team better in the long run. Of course, it's not all ball movement because Morris.
3. I don't see any reason to play Carlos Morris more than a token amount of minutes going forward. You can't just bench the guy because it's kind of a dick move to do that to a senior, but he doesn't fit the ball movement offense and just does some really dumb things. The passing up an open three to pump fake, then starting at the defender, and then shooting now that it's contested. The offensive rebound followed by fall away jumper that has no prayer of going in. Taking the ball at the rim in a one-on-four situation. And the ball stopping. Always the ball stopping. Last year, at least, you could point to his defense and high steal rate, but for whatever reason his steals are cut in half this year and he's just not adding anything of value. On a team that is going nowhere this year, there's no need to play a guy who isn't part of the future if he doesn't help you. Joey King at least gives you some shooting, even if that's about it.
4. Keep an eye on this Jordan Murphy character. His stats, obviously, are eye popping as he put up another double double with 11 points and 12 rebounds, his third in his last four games. His offensive rebounding is already elite with his quick jump ability and smarts (top 50ish) and his defensive rebounding is great too, mostly based on good positioning. His offensive game is decent as well, and if he can hit that open three-pointer to keep defenses honest it's going to open up so much more for him - and we're off to a good start there at 3-8 and they look good coming off his hand. His intelligence is what really sets him apart for me though. He and Mason ran a pick and roll, but the defender hedged so hard over the top the pick didn't really happen, so Murphy just flipped around and Mason came right back the other way. It was a smart, smart play. It resulted in a missed shot of course, but the Murphy/Mason pick and rolls should end up a staple of this team for the next few years.
5. Speaking of pick and rolls, I loved this one particular play. Pitino must have worked this one out in the lab because I can't recall seeing it before, but it should be used a minimum of once a half going forward. Mason has the ball, and Murphy and King set a double pick for him on the wing. Once he clears the pick, Murphy rolls to the hoop and King pops right out to the wing. It's brilliant. It gives Mason three immediate options - drive, hit Murphy diving to the hoop, or swing it back to King for an open three. Meanwhile the other two players are in the corners to clear spacing and give Mason the option of a kick out if their defenders collapse or jump to cover King. Really cool play.
6. Speaking of Mason, man this kid is good. He is just so under control at all times. He can drive and score, dish, or pull up and hit a jumper, and he can hit the open three (his shooting will come on despite a slow start). He took over running the offense this year and although the offense has been iffy at best, that's not his fault. Then there was a play that didn't work but just showed his court sense and vision. The Gophers got a rebound and outlet passed it to him, and Morris had broken down court (because OFFENSE OFFENSE OFFENSE is what is in his brain) and without even taking a dribble Mason turned and fired it all the way down court. The Ok State defender got a hand on it and knocked it out of bounds, but if he doesn't Morris catches it and dunks without having to dribble. Would have been a thing of beauty. Mason is a fun watch.
7. Where was Charles Buggs? After playing at least 23 minutes and starting in the first 8 games this season (I think), Buggs played zero minutes against Oklahoma State after getting just 8 in the South Dakota State game. According to Pitino it had nothing to do with discipline or injury, and he simply played the players he though would help him win the game, which included walk-on freshman Stephon Sharp getting 3 minutes (after having had 1 whole minute this season) and little used freshman Ahmad Gilbert 2 minutes (he had 27 coming into the game). I don't think Buggs is some big game changer, but he's been an extremely efficient scorer this year and has improved on defense considerably from last season. Considering he'll presumably be around next season, this is a surprising development. I'd bench Morris way before Buggs. Also, full disclosure, I didn't even realize Buggs wasn't playing until someone mentioned it on twitter, so....
8. Dupree McBrayer took Buggs's spot in the starting lineup, and I think I like him. He needs a lot of polish, and I mean a lot, but there's things here I like. He does a good job as a secondary ball handler, and even it that role he's actually second on the team in assist rate (behind Mason). He also leads the team in fouls drawn and free throw rate because he already has a good ability to attack the rim and very smooth and in control when he does it. Against Ok State there was a play where he drove and the dude set up for a charge and he was able to just slide himself enough to the side to turn it into a block. Very good play. Yes, he's had some lapses on both sides of the ball, is too left-hand dependent, and hasn't been able to shoot a lick this year, but I'm ok with that. As a freshman I've seen enough that I'm confident he'll be a solid player down the line.
9. Kevin Dorsey too. Yeah him too. I'm liking how this class is shaping up for the most part. Dorsey is more polished than McBrayer, which is why I'm more concerned with his shitty shooting than Brayer's shittier shooting since I think if he could hit a jumper we would have seen it by now, but he's a bull getting to the rim. He's already a master of using his body to draw fouls and is third on the team in FT rate (behind McBrayer and Murphy). Considering he hits around 80% of his foul shots that's a solid strategy (and gives me hope his jumper will come around).
10. Next up, Chicago State. Considering the Cougars are one of the worst teams in the entire country (#339 per kenpom) this needs to be a blowout. They do nothing at all well. They do however, hoist a ton of three pointers. They don't make them, but knowing this Gopher team that's always a bit of a concern. Their only three wins this season were against non-D1 opponents, and they lost to DePaul by 24, Iowa State by 42, and Northwestern by 42. They are a terrible team. Please let this not be close.
Gophers 88, Chicago State 66.
Showing posts with label Carlos Morris. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Carlos Morris. Show all posts
Monday, December 14, 2015
Monday, November 30, 2015
Gophers vs. Clemson Live Blog
Since this is basically the only interesting home non-conference opponent the Gophers are going to face this year and since I cannot be in attendance I might as well live blog the game.
Before that though, I went to the Gopher football game this weekend and actually tailgated for the first time. I know what you're thinking and yes there's probably something wrong with me, but it was my first time and it was a blast. I got to hook up with a couple of old college buddies who were in town from Wisconsin (including WSCTQB who used to comment on this blog back when it didn't suck so much), fun internet dudes Disco Stu and Stryker, and a big chunk of the Gopher Blogger/Twitterverse including @TreTanic (and his brother who I don't believe is on twitter anywhere), @MVoDT, @jdmill, and @Swannosaurus. I know I met other people but it's hard to remember because we did thinks like drink bourbon at 9:30am, destroy all of the beers, take an Uber from one parking lot to another, do back to back shots of fireball or fireball equivalent, and eat nothing but grilled sausages. It ruled. We also played a bunch of cornhole and MVoDT and I were the best team in history. I wish I could say I remembered more of the game, but I don't and then I died the next morning. Was a blast.
So anyone, on to the next crappy Gopher team. They opened as a pick 'em against Clemson tonight and have been bet all the way to -2 at some places. Which means someone is confident in the Gophers. I myself am not. Away we go.
Oh wait hold on. We had our Big Ten Basketball Fantasy Draft last night. Just a few notes:
And now away we go.
- And the game won't load on the stupid WatchESPN app. I swear to god someone will burn for this.
18:38 - It's 3-2 Clemson and I finally got it to load. I'm shocked the Gophers alllowed a 3. Shocked.
17:42 - Joey King posts up from about 16 out, then kicks a nice pass out of a double to Dupree McBrayer who first misses and easy rotation pass that would have resulted in an open 3, following that up by forcing up a terrible three pointer of his own. Then Clemson hits a 3 in transition. I can already sum this season up in once sequence.
17:14 - My son just snuck down to watch some of the game with me. I want to forbid him from being a Gopher fan so, so bad. Just as my Dad should have done for me.
15;50 - Buggs knocks down a 3 to make it 11-10 Clemson. I still have no idea what to make of Buggs.
15:21 - Clemson has done two things so far this game - offensive rebounds and make 3s. Stop me if you've heard this one before.
14:48 - Morris with a dumb floater that gets blocked, nobody fills to get back, layup Clemson. This may be the year I actually quit this dumb blog.
13:40 - No defense on either side, so at least it's fun. 18-14 Clemson.
12:58 - Mason drives and doesn't score, nobody fills and gets back, easy lay-up Clemson.
12:21 - McBrayer looks pretty smooth. Freshman-y, but smooth. TO THE FUTURE!
12:06 - Murphy gets completely lost and it's another Clemson lay-up. This is fairly unreal.
11:08 - Murphy's spin move from post to baseline, however, has gotten him multiple easy buckets this year including just now. There's some potential from some of these guys, no doubt.
9:30 - Murphy now hits a free throw line jumper. He's got an awfully good all around offensive game for a freshman. I expect "lots of potential but lots of young mistakes" to be this year's theme. Which I guess could be worse.
8:09 - And Murphy tip-dunk. This is just a Jordan Murphy live blog, apparently.
7:16 - Carlos Morris takes the pass in the left corner with a small window if he wants to shoot, jab steps instead and creates a little bit of room if he wants to drive, instead pulls back and shoots a contested 3-pointer which doesn't even come close to going in. This is what it sounds like when doves cry.
6:16 - Nice little double screen off the indbounds leads to a Mason jumper. Pitino still excels at drawing up offensive plays, either half court or off the inbounds. He sucks at a few things, but hopefully he'll learn, and he was more imaginative offensively than any other Gopher coach I can remember. Also Clemson hit a three while I was typing that.
4:30 - Buggs airballs a 3 by about 3 feet. Sure. Why not.
3:22 - Clemson just made a pass from wing to wing you should never be able to make against an aggressive zone. Led to a stupid 3, that went in of course, but just making that pass shouldn't happen.
2:50 - Joey King hits another open three and he's developed a pretty quick trigger. He still can't create his own offense and I don't see Big Ten coaches being unable to take him completely away, but he's at least reached a point where they'll have to scheme for him. Which I wouldn't have believed even a year ago.
0:30 - Clemson three. I almost can't wait to look at their kenpom numbers tomorrow. Hard to believe any other team in the country is getting killed by 3s like this. 42-36 half. I'm going to go watch whatever dumb show my wife is watching. I might be late for the second half. OH NO.
19:10 - Mason is so solid shooting. He's going to be really good.
17:24 - As I say that Mason gets caught standing around on defense. Some of the mistakes this team makes.........
16:25 - Morris goes one on 3 and somehow manages to kick it to Buggs who takes a dumb contested 3-pointer. Which hits front of rim, bounces up, and goes in. We'll take it, but that is not good basketball.
15:05 - Man Murphy just owns the baseline. Of course, then nobody gets back and it's yet another Clemson three. 51-50 Clemson.
14:04 - Another Clemson three on a drive and kick. Can't fault the Gophers too much on that one, but man it's just such a common pattern.
13:30 - Announcer guy, "King in the post. That's not really his offensive strength." No shit.
12:19 - Buggs hits just a stupid, stupid three pointer. Good for him I guess.
12:17 - I think I will have some sriracha beef jerky.
11:47 - Clemson sagging way off Dorsey already. I was hoping that wouldn't happen.
11:25 - Buggs fouled as he wildly drives the lane. He's much better at that then when he wildly chucks up contested threes.
11:00 - Dorsey steal and is blocked on the lay up, goes to McBrayer who wildly throws it in the direction of the rim, and then Murphy (who else) with the three point play to put the Gophers up 58-56. Huge coming out party against the Gophers toughest opponent to date. I still think McBrayer is going to be my guy from this team (behind Mason, who is everyone's guy) but Murphy showing some real chops.
9:11 - Lotta ugly and fast basketball here. Basically sums up the Pitino era so far. And I'm a fan!!
8:30 - I think that's Jabal Abu-Shamala behind the bench. Also the defense doesn't get back again.
8:22 - So I mention Shamala on twitter and my feed just blows up. You know who else people mentioned? Ryan Saunders and Blake Hoffarber. So many racists on twitter.
5:31 - of course that goes in
5:12 - OH SHIT McBrayer is from NYC? How the hell did I miss this? I LOVE NYC point guards. Told you he was my guy.
4:46 - Clemson misses a free throw. Somehow the rebound goes out of bounds off the Gophers. I need to drink more.
4:01 - Beautiful hesitation move into a lay-up by Dorsey. I take it all back. 71-65 Gophers.
3:31 - King just gets manhandled by Clemson big guy for deep position and easy lay-up. Probably shouldn't judge King on that since he shouldn't have to be in that position. Going to anyway.
2:40 - Murphy goes baseline again. Having an amazing game right now, 22 points and 8 rebounds on a team high 15 shots. Love it.
1:10 - Murphy tip in to pretty much end the game (80-73) and he came from the complete opposite block to get around the defense and get to that ball. What a game by this kid. Wow.
0:40 - Gophers up 85-78 and Pitino just called a timeout. Which means I'm bored now and it's time to go watch crappy tv with the wife. Jordan Murphy is amazing, and I see a ton of potential from Konate, Mason, Dorsey, and McBrayer. With some size transferring in I am currently way to optimistic about next year. Someone come hit me with something.
Before that though, I went to the Gopher football game this weekend and actually tailgated for the first time. I know what you're thinking and yes there's probably something wrong with me, but it was my first time and it was a blast. I got to hook up with a couple of old college buddies who were in town from Wisconsin (including WSCTQB who used to comment on this blog back when it didn't suck so much), fun internet dudes Disco Stu and Stryker, and a big chunk of the Gopher Blogger/Twitterverse including @TreTanic (and his brother who I don't believe is on twitter anywhere), @MVoDT, @jdmill, and @Swannosaurus. I know I met other people but it's hard to remember because we did thinks like drink bourbon at 9:30am, destroy all of the beers, take an Uber from one parking lot to another, do back to back shots of fireball or fireball equivalent, and eat nothing but grilled sausages. It ruled. We also played a bunch of cornhole and MVoDT and I were the best team in history. I wish I could say I remembered more of the game, but I don't and then I died the next morning. Was a blast.
So anyone, on to the next crappy Gopher team. They opened as a pick 'em against Clemson tonight and have been bet all the way to -2 at some places. Which means someone is confident in the Gophers. I myself am not. Away we go.
Oh wait hold on. We had our Big Ten Basketball Fantasy Draft last night. Just a few notes:
- Keepers: Nate Mason, Caris Levert, Denzel Valentine, Robert Blackmon, Shep Garner, Jake Layman, Melo Trimble, Keita Bates-Diop.
- First round: Yogi Ferrell, Nigel Hayes, Malcolm Hill, Jarrod Uthoff, Isaac Hayes, Mike Thorne, Troy Williams, Shavon Shields.
- My team: Levert, Hayes, Derrick Walton, Brandon Taylor, Jae'Sean Tate, Adam Woodbury, and Carlos Morris.
- Gophers taken: Mason, Morris, Joey King
- I would also list which teams had the most and fewest players taken, but the website is being a dick and this is already boring.
And now away we go.
- And the game won't load on the stupid WatchESPN app. I swear to god someone will burn for this.
18:38 - It's 3-2 Clemson and I finally got it to load. I'm shocked the Gophers alllowed a 3. Shocked.
17:42 - Joey King posts up from about 16 out, then kicks a nice pass out of a double to Dupree McBrayer who first misses and easy rotation pass that would have resulted in an open 3, following that up by forcing up a terrible three pointer of his own. Then Clemson hits a 3 in transition. I can already sum this season up in once sequence.
17:14 - My son just snuck down to watch some of the game with me. I want to forbid him from being a Gopher fan so, so bad. Just as my Dad should have done for me.
15;50 - Buggs knocks down a 3 to make it 11-10 Clemson. I still have no idea what to make of Buggs.
15:21 - Clemson has done two things so far this game - offensive rebounds and make 3s. Stop me if you've heard this one before.
14:48 - Morris with a dumb floater that gets blocked, nobody fills to get back, layup Clemson. This may be the year I actually quit this dumb blog.
13:40 - No defense on either side, so at least it's fun. 18-14 Clemson.
12:58 - Mason drives and doesn't score, nobody fills and gets back, easy lay-up Clemson.
12:21 - McBrayer looks pretty smooth. Freshman-y, but smooth. TO THE FUTURE!
12:06 - Murphy gets completely lost and it's another Clemson lay-up. This is fairly unreal.
11:08 - Murphy's spin move from post to baseline, however, has gotten him multiple easy buckets this year including just now. There's some potential from some of these guys, no doubt.
9:30 - Murphy now hits a free throw line jumper. He's got an awfully good all around offensive game for a freshman. I expect "lots of potential but lots of young mistakes" to be this year's theme. Which I guess could be worse.
8:09 - And Murphy tip-dunk. This is just a Jordan Murphy live blog, apparently.
7:16 - Carlos Morris takes the pass in the left corner with a small window if he wants to shoot, jab steps instead and creates a little bit of room if he wants to drive, instead pulls back and shoots a contested 3-pointer which doesn't even come close to going in. This is what it sounds like when doves cry.
6:16 - Nice little double screen off the indbounds leads to a Mason jumper. Pitino still excels at drawing up offensive plays, either half court or off the inbounds. He sucks at a few things, but hopefully he'll learn, and he was more imaginative offensively than any other Gopher coach I can remember. Also Clemson hit a three while I was typing that.
4:30 - Buggs airballs a 3 by about 3 feet. Sure. Why not.
3:22 - Clemson just made a pass from wing to wing you should never be able to make against an aggressive zone. Led to a stupid 3, that went in of course, but just making that pass shouldn't happen.
2:50 - Joey King hits another open three and he's developed a pretty quick trigger. He still can't create his own offense and I don't see Big Ten coaches being unable to take him completely away, but he's at least reached a point where they'll have to scheme for him. Which I wouldn't have believed even a year ago.
0:30 - Clemson three. I almost can't wait to look at their kenpom numbers tomorrow. Hard to believe any other team in the country is getting killed by 3s like this. 42-36 half. I'm going to go watch whatever dumb show my wife is watching. I might be late for the second half. OH NO.
19:10 - Mason is so solid shooting. He's going to be really good.
17:24 - As I say that Mason gets caught standing around on defense. Some of the mistakes this team makes.........
16:25 - Morris goes one on 3 and somehow manages to kick it to Buggs who takes a dumb contested 3-pointer. Which hits front of rim, bounces up, and goes in. We'll take it, but that is not good basketball.
15:05 - Man Murphy just owns the baseline. Of course, then nobody gets back and it's yet another Clemson three. 51-50 Clemson.
14:04 - Another Clemson three on a drive and kick. Can't fault the Gophers too much on that one, but man it's just such a common pattern.
13:30 - Announcer guy, "King in the post. That's not really his offensive strength." No shit.
12:19 - Buggs hits just a stupid, stupid three pointer. Good for him I guess.
12:17 - I think I will have some sriracha beef jerky.
11:47 - Clemson sagging way off Dorsey already. I was hoping that wouldn't happen.
11:25 - Buggs fouled as he wildly drives the lane. He's much better at that then when he wildly chucks up contested threes.
11:00 - Dorsey steal and is blocked on the lay up, goes to McBrayer who wildly throws it in the direction of the rim, and then Murphy (who else) with the three point play to put the Gophers up 58-56. Huge coming out party against the Gophers toughest opponent to date. I still think McBrayer is going to be my guy from this team (behind Mason, who is everyone's guy) but Murphy showing some real chops.
9:11 - Lotta ugly and fast basketball here. Basically sums up the Pitino era so far. And I'm a fan!!
8:30 - I think that's Jabal Abu-Shamala behind the bench. Also the defense doesn't get back again.
8:22 - So I mention Shamala on twitter and my feed just blows up. You know who else people mentioned? Ryan Saunders and Blake Hoffarber. So many racists on twitter.
5:31 - of course that goes in
5:12 - OH SHIT McBrayer is from NYC? How the hell did I miss this? I LOVE NYC point guards. Told you he was my guy.
4:46 - Clemson misses a free throw. Somehow the rebound goes out of bounds off the Gophers. I need to drink more.
4:01 - Beautiful hesitation move into a lay-up by Dorsey. I take it all back. 71-65 Gophers.
3:31 - King just gets manhandled by Clemson big guy for deep position and easy lay-up. Probably shouldn't judge King on that since he shouldn't have to be in that position. Going to anyway.
2:40 - Murphy goes baseline again. Having an amazing game right now, 22 points and 8 rebounds on a team high 15 shots. Love it.
1:10 - Murphy tip in to pretty much end the game (80-73) and he came from the complete opposite block to get around the defense and get to that ball. What a game by this kid. Wow.
0:40 - Gophers up 85-78 and Pitino just called a timeout. Which means I'm bored now and it's time to go watch crappy tv with the wife. Jordan Murphy is amazing, and I see a ton of potential from Konate, Mason, Dorsey, and McBrayer. With some size transferring in I am currently way to optimistic about next year. Someone come hit me with something.
Tuesday, November 24, 2015
10 Things I Liked and Didn't Like from the Puerto Rico Tip Off
I didn't get to see much of the tournament this weekend. The first two games happened while I was at work, and the third I missed because on account of being at a bar that didn't have the game on because grrr football, so most of these impressions are coming from flashes of the first two games and looking at box scores and advanced metrics. Let's just say that coming out of there 1-2 with the only win over lowly Missouri State in a game they almost blew is not an encouraging sign for this season. Ugh.
1. The Rebounding. Oh god, the rebounding. We were pretty well tipped off when Southwest Minnesota State or whoever outrebounded the Gophers in their exhibition game, but man oh man it is not pretty. They were outrebounded in all three games, and their rebound rates on both sides of the ball are north of the top 225 in NCAA, and they have yet to play a real good opponent. This is a really, really bad thing. It's not surprising with the personnel they have, but might be worse than I thought. Jordan Murphy's defensive rebounding rate is the only one on the entire roster to crack the Top 500 of all NCAA players.
2. I'm kinda worried Kevin Dorsey can't shoot. This can be worked around because he is so, so, so good at attacking the rim, but I'm a little worried here. I know it's easy to point at 2-15 and yell about how he can't hit the broadside of a rim, and that's stupid because sample size and all that, but it's more how he missed. I'm pretty sure I saw at least one airball, and a couple more that were just, yuck. Hopefully this gets a little better as the year and career go on, because I love the way he goes to the rim, and a broken jumper makes that more difficult.
3. Speaking of which, this offense is way too 3-point dependent. Over 40% of their attempts so far this year are from three, and although that kind of offense can work it's a dramatic uptick from the 33% last year. Not to mention last year they could actually shoot, hitting almost 38% compared to 34% this year. Nate Mason will be better than his 29% so far and Dorsey likely isn't a sub 20% shooter, but Carlos Morris, Joey King, and Charles Buggs aren't going to keep hitting at this high of a percentage either. Plus, again, the caliber of competition so far says they shouldn't have to depend on the 3, and should instead be going to the rim. Unless something changes this is only going to get worse once conference play starts, which means they'll probably get one cool awesome upset win when everyone is hot, but a whole lot of losses.
4. Terrible 3-point defense. Again. The Gophers have always struggled defending the three for whatever reason and so far are again. Looking back the last time they ranked in the top 100 in the country against the three was 2008. 2008! Last year they ranked 287th, this year so far 275th. That is bad. The one positive I see is that they're actually limiting the number of threes opponents shoot for the first time under Pitino, with opposing teams taking just 32% of their attempts from three, a number that was over 35% in both of his first two years and every Tubby year, so maybe that's a positive trend. Or maybe teams are just attacking a gooey soft defense. Too soon to tell, but they are at least playing pretty good two-point defense.
5. Bakary Konate is better than I expected. Now, this is still a very, very fragile compliment given that he is indeed still raw and is kind of a foul machine, but I was impressed by two things. I saw a legit jump hook. Not a raw goofy one like if you ask a high school wrestler to shoot one, but a real, good looking shot. I remember being so stunned by it that I don't even remember if it went in. Also, his free throws are gorgeous. Great form, nice high arc, just perfect. He's only 5-9 this year but whatever, that's fine. He's further along than I expected him to be. The Gophers are still screwed for this year, but I am pleasantly intrigued. His rim protection numbers also look good with a Top 100 block rate in the country right now, but I don't recall seeing any blocks of his so I won't comment further.
6. Carlos Morris may yet be the death of me. Every once in a while Morris does something smart and in control. And I do mostly love him on the defensive end because he balances out his lapses and mistakes by getting a lot of steals. However, "Morris floater in the lane" might be my least favorite sentence ever because he just does not have that shot. I knew this year would be nuts because he was going to be asked to be a big part of the offense. I guess I had hoped we'd see a different Morris, and I suppose if he continues to hit threes at a 43% clip you can deal with a lot of mistakes. Also he's taking the ball to the rim more than last year, so that's good too. Look at me, I'm talking myself into Carlos Morris! This is gonna be a great year!
7. This is a young team, and a young coach. Duh, of course, but it's good to keep reminding myself that when Pitino switches up defense to a half court trap for no good reason and the defense gets torched after regular old man to man was doing a good job against Missouri State. With so many young players and youngish guys playing heavy minutes for the first time and the variety of defenses Pitino likes to run it's no wonder at times the defense looks like a rec league team of 5th graders running around. This is a year for patience and waiting, which is kind of frustrating considering it's Year 3 of the Pitino era, but at the same time the way the roster was constructed you could see this year looming, and unless he hit on a huge recruiting class this year was pretty much earmarked as rough. Something good better happen next year though, because he's got that big time class.
8. Nate Mason is going to be a star. He played pretty crappy in the tournament overall and so far is showing a disturbing propensity to foul so far this year, but much like Carlos Morris passes the eye test for reckless crazy, Mason passes the eye test for totally under control future star.
And I could only come up with eight things and I kind mailed in the last one so I guess that's as good as you're gonna get. Up next is Omaha, a terrible team the Gophers ought to beat by double digits. Their only win this season against a D-1 team was in overtime against a UMKC team the Gophers beat by 18, and one of their losses was to Santa Barbara, their only win so far this year. They did hang with Colorado and lost by just five, so maybe they aren't completely terrible, but they shoot 23.6% from three, so maybe they are. The most worrisome thing is so far this year they've given up a lot of three pointers, but done a good job and teams are hitting a super low percentage, so that's bad considering the Gophers love to shoot threes and are horrible at it.
Should be fun.
1. The Rebounding. Oh god, the rebounding. We were pretty well tipped off when Southwest Minnesota State or whoever outrebounded the Gophers in their exhibition game, but man oh man it is not pretty. They were outrebounded in all three games, and their rebound rates on both sides of the ball are north of the top 225 in NCAA, and they have yet to play a real good opponent. This is a really, really bad thing. It's not surprising with the personnel they have, but might be worse than I thought. Jordan Murphy's defensive rebounding rate is the only one on the entire roster to crack the Top 500 of all NCAA players.
2. I'm kinda worried Kevin Dorsey can't shoot. This can be worked around because he is so, so, so good at attacking the rim, but I'm a little worried here. I know it's easy to point at 2-15 and yell about how he can't hit the broadside of a rim, and that's stupid because sample size and all that, but it's more how he missed. I'm pretty sure I saw at least one airball, and a couple more that were just, yuck. Hopefully this gets a little better as the year and career go on, because I love the way he goes to the rim, and a broken jumper makes that more difficult.
3. Speaking of which, this offense is way too 3-point dependent. Over 40% of their attempts so far this year are from three, and although that kind of offense can work it's a dramatic uptick from the 33% last year. Not to mention last year they could actually shoot, hitting almost 38% compared to 34% this year. Nate Mason will be better than his 29% so far and Dorsey likely isn't a sub 20% shooter, but Carlos Morris, Joey King, and Charles Buggs aren't going to keep hitting at this high of a percentage either. Plus, again, the caliber of competition so far says they shouldn't have to depend on the 3, and should instead be going to the rim. Unless something changes this is only going to get worse once conference play starts, which means they'll probably get one cool awesome upset win when everyone is hot, but a whole lot of losses.
4. Terrible 3-point defense. Again. The Gophers have always struggled defending the three for whatever reason and so far are again. Looking back the last time they ranked in the top 100 in the country against the three was 2008. 2008! Last year they ranked 287th, this year so far 275th. That is bad. The one positive I see is that they're actually limiting the number of threes opponents shoot for the first time under Pitino, with opposing teams taking just 32% of their attempts from three, a number that was over 35% in both of his first two years and every Tubby year, so maybe that's a positive trend. Or maybe teams are just attacking a gooey soft defense. Too soon to tell, but they are at least playing pretty good two-point defense.
5. Bakary Konate is better than I expected. Now, this is still a very, very fragile compliment given that he is indeed still raw and is kind of a foul machine, but I was impressed by two things. I saw a legit jump hook. Not a raw goofy one like if you ask a high school wrestler to shoot one, but a real, good looking shot. I remember being so stunned by it that I don't even remember if it went in. Also, his free throws are gorgeous. Great form, nice high arc, just perfect. He's only 5-9 this year but whatever, that's fine. He's further along than I expected him to be. The Gophers are still screwed for this year, but I am pleasantly intrigued. His rim protection numbers also look good with a Top 100 block rate in the country right now, but I don't recall seeing any blocks of his so I won't comment further.
6. Carlos Morris may yet be the death of me. Every once in a while Morris does something smart and in control. And I do mostly love him on the defensive end because he balances out his lapses and mistakes by getting a lot of steals. However, "Morris floater in the lane" might be my least favorite sentence ever because he just does not have that shot. I knew this year would be nuts because he was going to be asked to be a big part of the offense. I guess I had hoped we'd see a different Morris, and I suppose if he continues to hit threes at a 43% clip you can deal with a lot of mistakes. Also he's taking the ball to the rim more than last year, so that's good too. Look at me, I'm talking myself into Carlos Morris! This is gonna be a great year!
7. This is a young team, and a young coach. Duh, of course, but it's good to keep reminding myself that when Pitino switches up defense to a half court trap for no good reason and the defense gets torched after regular old man to man was doing a good job against Missouri State. With so many young players and youngish guys playing heavy minutes for the first time and the variety of defenses Pitino likes to run it's no wonder at times the defense looks like a rec league team of 5th graders running around. This is a year for patience and waiting, which is kind of frustrating considering it's Year 3 of the Pitino era, but at the same time the way the roster was constructed you could see this year looming, and unless he hit on a huge recruiting class this year was pretty much earmarked as rough. Something good better happen next year though, because he's got that big time class.
8. Nate Mason is going to be a star. He played pretty crappy in the tournament overall and so far is showing a disturbing propensity to foul so far this year, but much like Carlos Morris passes the eye test for reckless crazy, Mason passes the eye test for totally under control future star.
And I could only come up with eight things and I kind mailed in the last one so I guess that's as good as you're gonna get. Up next is Omaha, a terrible team the Gophers ought to beat by double digits. Their only win this season against a D-1 team was in overtime against a UMKC team the Gophers beat by 18, and one of their losses was to Santa Barbara, their only win so far this year. They did hang with Colorado and lost by just five, so maybe they aren't completely terrible, but they shoot 23.6% from three, so maybe they are. The most worrisome thing is so far this year they've given up a lot of three pointers, but done a good job and teams are hitting a super low percentage, so that's bad considering the Gophers love to shoot threes and are horrible at it.
Should be fun.
Wednesday, January 21, 2015
What's wrong with the Gophers? Nerd stats and charts!
There was a lot of optimism around the Gopher basketball team going into this season with a trip to the NCAA Tournament looking likely. At this point, however, it now looks like a return to the NIT might be the best case scenario. With the majority of the team intact from last season, I thought it might be instructive to look at the players and see if there's any glaring changes. Looking at the five starters (comparing Austin Hollins with Carlos Morris) here are their offensive ratings as computed by kenpom.com in 2013-14 and 2014-15:
According to O-rating, Walker and Mathieu have essentially been the same player (I'll look closer at Mathieu later because it sure doesn't seem like it), but massive drop offs from Andre Hollins and Joey King and the switch from Austin Hollins to Carlos Morris have drastically hurt this team on the offensive end.
You think the easy answer on Dre Hollins is that he's shooting terribly, but look at these numbers:
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We like to harp on Dre's shooting, but he's actually shooting significantly better this season than last, outside of free throws which have been a team wide problem. The real issues for Hollins are a decreased assist rate versus an increased turnover rate, as well as a steep drop in free throw attempts. To put these numbers in a per game perspective, Hollins is averaging the same amount of assists per game as last season at 2.4 while increasing his turnovers from 1.8 to 2.3 per game, a career high despite giving up most of his point guard duties. At the same time his free throw attempts per game have plummeted from 4.9 per game to 2.7, a number near the 2.5 he averaged his freshman year when he was playing just 20 minutes per game.
The assist decrease coupled with the free throw decrease screams of a player who is no longer creating offense by driving to the rim, and indeed a quick check of hoop-math.com shows he's attempting just 13.5% of his shots at the rim, down from 16.8% last season and yet another career low. More telling, a teammate has registered an assist on 68.4% of Hollins's baskets scored at the rim this year, well up from 34.2% last season, meaning the majority of his at the rim baskets are a result of someone else creating the offense. Andre is most effective when he uses all this weapons, especially since he's such a good free throw shooter, but he's settled into the role of jump shooter this year and that's a negative.
Next up is whipping boy Joey King.
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Though King's shooting has been fine, though down, and is very similar to last season, his rebounding has taken a dip, his turnovers are up, and, again, his free throw rate has been cut in half. Similar to Hollins, King's % of shot attempts at the rim has dropped from 27.2% to 21.1%. The rest of his shooting splits are pretty similar to last year, so it could simply be a case of him spending less time around the rim, a case which would also negatively impact his offensive rebounding rate. If we want to put this another way, King's playing time has jumped by about 25% this year, and you'd expect most counting stats to jump by the same amount if there's no improvement or regression:
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While the assist and block improvement are positives and the turnovers are expected given his increased touches and general trouble keeping hold of the ball, the slim rebounding increase and negative free throw number are huge red flags for someone who is supposed to be a power forward. Though some of the rebounding regression could be ascribed to Mo Walker both increasing his playing time and rebounding rates, Elliott Eliason has conversely seen both his playing time and rebounding rates dip so at a minimum King's rebounding should have increased at a level similar to his playing time, and there's no excuse for such a drastic free throw decrease.
Next up, a comparison between Austin Hollins last year and Carlos Morris this season:
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Despite Hollins taking quite a lot of crap (more than he should have) for his senior year performance, it's clear that he was far and away a better player than Carlos Morris has been this season. The only place Morris outpaces Hollins are in assist rate and defensive rebounding rate, and those are both by a slim margin where Hollins is significantly better than Morris in most of the other categories. I like Morris and I think he has a shot to be a pretty solid player next season and a great scorer, but the drop-off from Hollins has been significant this season, more than many would have though, and has certainly contributed to a sub-par season.
Lastly I want to look at Mathieu quickly, because his O-rating being the same as last year kind of surprised me. I don't feel like making a chart, but despite his recent struggles Mathieu's assists are up, turnovers are down, steals are up, and although his shooting is down a bit it's still a good number. He's fine, just in a bit of a slump.
I don't expect the Gophers to turn it around at this point and make the NCAA Tournament or anything, but I would like to see Hollins get back towards attacking the rim, King play more like a power forward and take some strides since he's going to be important next year (gulp), and Morris continue to develop his all around game because I think he's improved significantly from earlier in the year. I mean, there are lots of other things I want to see too, but these are the ones uncovered from this post.
It's been a long year.
According to O-rating, Walker and Mathieu have essentially been the same player (I'll look closer at Mathieu later because it sure doesn't seem like it), but massive drop offs from Andre Hollins and Joey King and the switch from Austin Hollins to Carlos Morris have drastically hurt this team on the offensive end.
You think the easy answer on Dre Hollins is that he's shooting terribly, but look at these numbers:
We like to harp on Dre's shooting, but he's actually shooting significantly better this season than last, outside of free throws which have been a team wide problem. The real issues for Hollins are a decreased assist rate versus an increased turnover rate, as well as a steep drop in free throw attempts. To put these numbers in a per game perspective, Hollins is averaging the same amount of assists per game as last season at 2.4 while increasing his turnovers from 1.8 to 2.3 per game, a career high despite giving up most of his point guard duties. At the same time his free throw attempts per game have plummeted from 4.9 per game to 2.7, a number near the 2.5 he averaged his freshman year when he was playing just 20 minutes per game.
The assist decrease coupled with the free throw decrease screams of a player who is no longer creating offense by driving to the rim, and indeed a quick check of hoop-math.com shows he's attempting just 13.5% of his shots at the rim, down from 16.8% last season and yet another career low. More telling, a teammate has registered an assist on 68.4% of Hollins's baskets scored at the rim this year, well up from 34.2% last season, meaning the majority of his at the rim baskets are a result of someone else creating the offense. Andre is most effective when he uses all this weapons, especially since he's such a good free throw shooter, but he's settled into the role of jump shooter this year and that's a negative.
Next up is whipping boy Joey King.
Though King's shooting has been fine, though down, and is very similar to last season, his rebounding has taken a dip, his turnovers are up, and, again, his free throw rate has been cut in half. Similar to Hollins, King's % of shot attempts at the rim has dropped from 27.2% to 21.1%. The rest of his shooting splits are pretty similar to last year, so it could simply be a case of him spending less time around the rim, a case which would also negatively impact his offensive rebounding rate. If we want to put this another way, King's playing time has jumped by about 25% this year, and you'd expect most counting stats to jump by the same amount if there's no improvement or regression:
While the assist and block improvement are positives and the turnovers are expected given his increased touches and general trouble keeping hold of the ball, the slim rebounding increase and negative free throw number are huge red flags for someone who is supposed to be a power forward. Though some of the rebounding regression could be ascribed to Mo Walker both increasing his playing time and rebounding rates, Elliott Eliason has conversely seen both his playing time and rebounding rates dip so at a minimum King's rebounding should have increased at a level similar to his playing time, and there's no excuse for such a drastic free throw decrease.
Next up, a comparison between Austin Hollins last year and Carlos Morris this season:
Despite Hollins taking quite a lot of crap (more than he should have) for his senior year performance, it's clear that he was far and away a better player than Carlos Morris has been this season. The only place Morris outpaces Hollins are in assist rate and defensive rebounding rate, and those are both by a slim margin where Hollins is significantly better than Morris in most of the other categories. I like Morris and I think he has a shot to be a pretty solid player next season and a great scorer, but the drop-off from Hollins has been significant this season, more than many would have though, and has certainly contributed to a sub-par season.
Lastly I want to look at Mathieu quickly, because his O-rating being the same as last year kind of surprised me. I don't feel like making a chart, but despite his recent struggles Mathieu's assists are up, turnovers are down, steals are up, and although his shooting is down a bit it's still a good number. He's fine, just in a bit of a slump.
I don't expect the Gophers to turn it around at this point and make the NCAA Tournament or anything, but I would like to see Hollins get back towards attacking the rim, King play more like a power forward and take some strides since he's going to be important next year (gulp), and Morris continue to develop his all around game because I think he's improved significantly from earlier in the year. I mean, there are lots of other things I want to see too, but these are the ones uncovered from this post.
It's been a long year.
Wednesday, January 14, 2015
Iowa 77, Minnesota 75
It's a good thing I had pretty much already written this season off, because the Gophers found a new way to lose a game as brutally as possible. Getting blown out, crawling back, taking the lead, losing the lead, and tying it up at the buzzer which oops was actually after the buzzer is a new level of losing. It was clear he was late, clear enough to me at least that we just left after the buzzer instead of waiting for the ref's review. Sucks. Here are some things. I might get to ten I'm not sure. They're also probably going to be short because it's not very fun.
1. Dre Hollins still can't shoot. I consider myself a fairly analytical basketball mind, but there's really no rational reason for Hollins to continue to miss at this level (2-12 last night). I still think he's settling for jumpers to much and not getting to the rim, but it's not a huge shift from last year (14.1% of shots at rim this year vs. 16.8% last year) and if he's not 100% that could be the reason, but he's just flat missing even the wide open looks. I wish I knew more about stuff like shooting form and balance and release points and all that, because at this point it's gotta be mechanical. Or at least I hope so, because if it's mental it's going to be tough for him to pull it together after so many, many, misses.
2. Carlos Morris and Nate Mason were offensive superstars. The duo accounted for 38 of the Gophers' points on 14-25 shooting - that's good! Both have been showing off multi-faceted offensive games recently, and that only bodes well for the future. Wait, let me rephrase. The Gopher offense should score a lot of points next season, and points are fun. The defense right now looks to me like it will be absolutely dreadful. We're getting pretty used to it, but there's a very good chance it's going to be worse next year. Much worse.
3. If they make their free throws at the end of the game, they probably win. This is something people want to focus on and it's tough to blame them. Yeah, there were tons of other things that could have changed the game's outcome and the Gophers shot 12-16 from the line for the game, but missing the front end of two one-and-ones with a slim lead in the final two and a half minutes is pretty tough to ignore. I, and plenty of others, said if the poor free throw shooting didn't improve from earlier in the year it would cost this team at least one game, and here it probably did. Weird to say in a game they shoot 75% from the stripe, but tough to ignore that situation.
4. Pitino's new starting lineup didn't matter. Another thing I heard some whining about is how Pitino's different starting lineup (Eliason-Buggs-King-Hollins-Mason) screwed the team because they started the game in a 10-2 hole. Just shut up. That didn't matter. First, it was so early in the game that an eight point lead is not really close to insurmountable. Second, nobody on this team is so good compared to his replacement that his not being on the floor is going to make any significant difference. The only change that would make any difference long term would be Eliason in for Mo Walker, and it looks like Walker came in at about the seventeen and a half minute mark (we missed about the first five minutes or so because Macs was SO slow bringing the food out). This is a dumb point. He tried something kind of dumb to "spark the team" because that kind of dumb stuff sometimes works. This time it didn't, but it had little bearing on the team's loss.
5. Pitino's offense seems to have lost its edge. Remember when the Gophers ran some cool plays? Good enough stuff that I would point some of them out here? What happened? I know the base offense is kind of to let the players create and not have a pet play (like Tubby's flex) but the Gophers don't really have the types of players who can do that consistently. It works at Louisville and Florida because those guys are really, really good (Florida this year excepted). There needs to be a little bit more of a plan on the offensive end, especially when Mathieu is running rough.
6. Maybe Mathieu should have shot a pull up at the end. I guess in hindsight yes he definitely should have since he couldn't get the lay-up off, but he's fast and he's used to get where he's going and it's not like he was late by some huge amount of time. He saw a lane, he got to it, and it almost worked. He shares plenty of blame for what's gone on this season, and I have no idea what's going on with his dribbling which was near flawless last year but seems to have gone to hell, but don't put a whole lot of blame on him for running out of time. I saw some classy chap on twitter call him dumb. He makes a lot of dumb turnovers, sure, but this is the kind of thing that just sucks. It happens.
7. I thought the defense on Iowa's last shot was fine. I haven't rewatched it, which I probably would have if this season was going any where but it's not so I really don't feel like it, but my first impression was the defense was there, Uthoff just made a tough shot. I don't want to look at it again. If I'm wrong, it's probably the first time so give me a break.
8. Joey King is like, trying to be unlikable. He hit two monster threes in the second half. After both he did some cocky thing with his shooting hand like, simulating a ball going down into the hoop. Don't do that.
9. It may be time to let the kids play. This season is in oof status, and I'm not advocating a wholesale benching of the seniors or anything it's probably time to at least start glancing towards next year. With both Mo and Eliason gone that means Buggs, Bakary Konate, and Gaston Diedhiou are going to have to log a lot of minutes next season (gulp). Time to let them get more than a little taste and at least get some idea of what you have going into next season. Also probably time to be hitting the Juco, late signee, and transfer ranks pretty hard.
10. Well now what? I don't believe this team is anywhere near as bad as an 0-5 Big Ten team usually is, flaws notwithstanding, Kenpom still has them ranked #50 in the country, which kind of seems silly right now, but on the other hand they've mostly blown out bad teams and played good teams close, which is a recipe Kenpom generally likes. Unfortunately there are other metrics out there that mean more to the NCAA Selection committee such as RPI (#106) and Strength of Schedule (#103) which have pretty much now reached a level where anything the Gophers do short of nearly running the table isn't going to be enough to reach the tournament, and there's even some work to be done to go back to the NIT. Time to just try to have some fun with the rest of the year and watch the guys develop for next season and beyond. Luckily, I had already tricked my brain into thinking that way after Purdue. Even so, this season has been a disappointment on a level that I don't know if I've ever experienced.
I do think they'll smoke Rutgers on Saturday though.
1. Dre Hollins still can't shoot. I consider myself a fairly analytical basketball mind, but there's really no rational reason for Hollins to continue to miss at this level (2-12 last night). I still think he's settling for jumpers to much and not getting to the rim, but it's not a huge shift from last year (14.1% of shots at rim this year vs. 16.8% last year) and if he's not 100% that could be the reason, but he's just flat missing even the wide open looks. I wish I knew more about stuff like shooting form and balance and release points and all that, because at this point it's gotta be mechanical. Or at least I hope so, because if it's mental it's going to be tough for him to pull it together after so many, many, misses.
2. Carlos Morris and Nate Mason were offensive superstars. The duo accounted for 38 of the Gophers' points on 14-25 shooting - that's good! Both have been showing off multi-faceted offensive games recently, and that only bodes well for the future. Wait, let me rephrase. The Gopher offense should score a lot of points next season, and points are fun. The defense right now looks to me like it will be absolutely dreadful. We're getting pretty used to it, but there's a very good chance it's going to be worse next year. Much worse.
3. If they make their free throws at the end of the game, they probably win. This is something people want to focus on and it's tough to blame them. Yeah, there were tons of other things that could have changed the game's outcome and the Gophers shot 12-16 from the line for the game, but missing the front end of two one-and-ones with a slim lead in the final two and a half minutes is pretty tough to ignore. I, and plenty of others, said if the poor free throw shooting didn't improve from earlier in the year it would cost this team at least one game, and here it probably did. Weird to say in a game they shoot 75% from the stripe, but tough to ignore that situation.
4. Pitino's new starting lineup didn't matter. Another thing I heard some whining about is how Pitino's different starting lineup (Eliason-Buggs-King-Hollins-Mason) screwed the team because they started the game in a 10-2 hole. Just shut up. That didn't matter. First, it was so early in the game that an eight point lead is not really close to insurmountable. Second, nobody on this team is so good compared to his replacement that his not being on the floor is going to make any significant difference. The only change that would make any difference long term would be Eliason in for Mo Walker, and it looks like Walker came in at about the seventeen and a half minute mark (we missed about the first five minutes or so because Macs was SO slow bringing the food out). This is a dumb point. He tried something kind of dumb to "spark the team" because that kind of dumb stuff sometimes works. This time it didn't, but it had little bearing on the team's loss.
5. Pitino's offense seems to have lost its edge. Remember when the Gophers ran some cool plays? Good enough stuff that I would point some of them out here? What happened? I know the base offense is kind of to let the players create and not have a pet play (like Tubby's flex) but the Gophers don't really have the types of players who can do that consistently. It works at Louisville and Florida because those guys are really, really good (Florida this year excepted). There needs to be a little bit more of a plan on the offensive end, especially when Mathieu is running rough.
6. Maybe Mathieu should have shot a pull up at the end. I guess in hindsight yes he definitely should have since he couldn't get the lay-up off, but he's fast and he's used to get where he's going and it's not like he was late by some huge amount of time. He saw a lane, he got to it, and it almost worked. He shares plenty of blame for what's gone on this season, and I have no idea what's going on with his dribbling which was near flawless last year but seems to have gone to hell, but don't put a whole lot of blame on him for running out of time. I saw some classy chap on twitter call him dumb. He makes a lot of dumb turnovers, sure, but this is the kind of thing that just sucks. It happens.
7. I thought the defense on Iowa's last shot was fine. I haven't rewatched it, which I probably would have if this season was going any where but it's not so I really don't feel like it, but my first impression was the defense was there, Uthoff just made a tough shot. I don't want to look at it again. If I'm wrong, it's probably the first time so give me a break.
8. Joey King is like, trying to be unlikable. He hit two monster threes in the second half. After both he did some cocky thing with his shooting hand like, simulating a ball going down into the hoop. Don't do that.
9. It may be time to let the kids play. This season is in oof status, and I'm not advocating a wholesale benching of the seniors or anything it's probably time to at least start glancing towards next year. With both Mo and Eliason gone that means Buggs, Bakary Konate, and Gaston Diedhiou are going to have to log a lot of minutes next season (gulp). Time to let them get more than a little taste and at least get some idea of what you have going into next season. Also probably time to be hitting the Juco, late signee, and transfer ranks pretty hard.
10. Well now what? I don't believe this team is anywhere near as bad as an 0-5 Big Ten team usually is, flaws notwithstanding, Kenpom still has them ranked #50 in the country, which kind of seems silly right now, but on the other hand they've mostly blown out bad teams and played good teams close, which is a recipe Kenpom generally likes. Unfortunately there are other metrics out there that mean more to the NCAA Selection committee such as RPI (#106) and Strength of Schedule (#103) which have pretty much now reached a level where anything the Gophers do short of nearly running the table isn't going to be enough to reach the tournament, and there's even some work to be done to go back to the NIT. Time to just try to have some fun with the rest of the year and watch the guys develop for next season and beyond. Luckily, I had already tricked my brain into thinking that way after Purdue. Even so, this season has been a disappointment on a level that I don't know if I've ever experienced.
I do think they'll smoke Rutgers on Saturday though.
Monday, January 12, 2015
Michigan 62, Minnesota 57
Well that sucked. Another game that looked eminently winnable, and another loss. 0-4 is not a good place to be, but luckily for me I had pretty much prepared myself for this. Yes, I got sucked in a bit and yes, I felt a bit of rage rising post game, but I beat that shit back like Link fighting Ganon. Sorry my kids are really into watching me play Zelda games these days. Anyway, I didn't expect a win, I kind of started to believe, but when the collapse happened I wasn't the least bit surprised and well, I pretty much was just waiting for it. Here are ten things I liked and didn't like about that Michigan game.
1. Back door cuts are killing this team. It happened against Ohio State, it happened against Purdue, and it probably happened against Maryland but I slept through most of that game. It happened again big time against Michigan. It doesn't seem to matter if it's man or zone defense, that back door cut is just killing this team. Against Michigan there was a play I actually rewound twice to see if there was a pick, but no, it was just Dre Hollins falling asleep and letting his man go back door. I don't want to single him out because this is a team wide issue (Carlos hi) but it's a constant problem.
2. Mo Walker has become so good he's getting hard doubled. Pretty much every time Walker got the ball on Saturday Michigan sent a second defender, and not in a semi double way in a hard double way. Walkter had no choice but to pass, basically (which killed my Walker over 13.5 points bet) and it made sense because Michigan doesn't have the personnel to guard him one one hone (which is why I made the bet). He did a good job handling it and found open teammates enough times where it should have helped, but a staggering majority of those times whoever received the pass wasn't ready to shoot. Could have made a lot of difference.
3. I have never seen a team throw the ball directly out of bounds as much as this team. The Gophers turned it over 17 times in the game, and I swear at least 8 of them were balls just thrown directly out of bounds. Michigan is a decent team at causing turnovers, but this was just out of control. I gamble kind of a lot (but always within my means!) and a rule I try to follow is never bet on a dumb team. Baylor, LSU, and any team coached by Bruce Weber usually fall into this. The Gophers are trending in this direction.
4. Carlos Morris could end up being really good. Morris is on a really good run. Outside of the Maryland game (which I slept through) he's managed to take his chucker tendencies and turn them into scorer tendencies (this difference is not missing as much). He can hit the outside shot, he loves to drive to the rim, and against Michigan he showed off a very nice post game on a possession which had me like whoa (he did a very nice fake into an up and under which I didn't know he had in him). Morris can score, and there was little doubt of this from day 1, but he's started doing it in a a way that fits the offense. Next year, when he's the clear #1 option (and he will be) he could seriously end up with a spot on an all Big 10 team. For real.
5. That being said, Morris's jump pass is killing me. One thing you can say about Morris is the boy is confident. When he gets the ball and decides it's scoring time he's going to go to the rim and I am fully in favor of it. The problems is, besides the sometimes really bad shots, is that if he doesn't have a shot he'll jump and look to pass. If someone is open he great, good play dude. But when there's no one around he's suddenly finding himself in the air with nowhere to go. It's not good. Or, at best, rarely good.
6. Derrick Walton's jumper is beautiful. Is it Ray Allen beautiful? Of course not, don't be ridiculous, but it's a good looking shot. I know the stats say the long two is the worst shot in basketball and I don't dispute that, but there are some guys who can just hit it enough to make it worthwhile. Walton looks like he's going to be one of those guys. I wish there was a way to get stock on a guy in a way that actually made money, because I'm telling you right now Walton is going to be an absolute superstar by the time he's out of Ann Arbor. You heard it hear first.
7. The Gophers got killed on the boards. I know the final numbers show Minnesota winning the rebound battle, but man they got smoked on so many by a team that's basically running a four guard lineup. Michigan doesn't crash the o-boards, but the got 31% of their own misses against a season average of 26% (including the Minnesota game). There were just too many times a Michigan missed shot resulted in the Wolverines keeping the ball, which is a killer against a team that thrives in transition. On a list of ways to lose the game, giving up offensive boards should have been near the top. The Wolverines only shot 22% from three, which should have been a big part of a Gopher win, but giving up second chances negated that.
8. Michigan does a great job of taking away passing lanes. They did this in both man-to-man and that 1-3-1, but the whoever is on top for Michigan does a great job of making the offense reset. They don't necessarily try to steal the ball, but whenever a Gopher guard on the wing was trying to pass back to the point the Michigan defender was always in the way, making the pass go much further towards half court than the Gophers would like and effectively making them start the offense over. When Michigan switched to the 1-3-1 it was even more pronounced, and unfortunately no Gopher other than Nate Mason understood you need to attack the gaps rather than just work it around the perimeter. Really, Mason impressed me with his understanding of what needed to be done, but he was the only one.
9. Elliott Eliason is broken. There as a play as the game wound down where somebody (and I wish I had the game recorded right now to rewatch this) left the ball off for him and it should have been a one dribble and dunk situation. Instead it resulted in something else bad which I don't remember because he was just so hesitant. I know he's not a good offensive player, and that's just who he is, but at point Elliott seemed to realize that he could score in the right situation and was seeming to develop into a competent player. I have no idea what happened to the man, but he's become nothing more than a back-up center who can grab some rebounds sometime. The difference between who he was early last season and who he is now is staggering, and it's impossible to not wonder what happened with the coaching here. And yes, this is my first questioning of Pitino and staff I think. It happens.
10. I remember talking with someone and saying the Gopher might have the best back court in the conference. They sure aren't playing like it. Dre Hollins is basically playing the same as last year statswise, and he's shooting well but he has seemed to resign himself to being a jump shooter and isn't driving anymore (though you'll notice when the team is playing well it's when he's driving more) and Dre Matheiu is turning into a guy who won't shoot, even though he's a good shooter and who can't take care of the ball. Both are scoring less than last season, and both have disappeared at times. Despite a hot first half Hollins is still shooting like hell at just 10-46 (7-29 from three) in conference play and he's at 7 assists and 7 turnovers in those games. Mathieu might even have been worse - he's totaled 17 turnovers in B10 games against just 8 assists. I think everyone knew that these two were the key to the Gophers' season, and it's turning out that way. If things are going to get turned around, it has to happen here.
11. Extending this to eleven just because I have to mention Joey King Oof. Didn't shoot well, didn't rebound, and turned the ball over like it was his job. One key play towards the end of the game he dove for a ball on the ground and gained possession (good!), had enough wits about him to not call timeout since the Gophers were out (smart!), and, despite multiple teammates around him, was unable to get the ball to one of them, leading to Michigan possession (bad!). It was a huge play at that stage of the game. I know King is just crazy inconsistent and he's never going to be anything resembling a competent ball handler, but he's been brutal. Do you realize he has had more than one rebound in just one of the last five games? He's 6-9 for christ's sake. Ridiculous.
0-4 is a pretty major hole to dig your way out of, but it can be done. Kenpom still projected the Gophers to finish the conference season at 8-10, and if they could basically do that but steal just one game they aren't supposed to win (without the corresponding bad loss) that's 9-9 and in the ballpark for an NCAA bid. They'll probably need to go 10-8 to feel good, which means a whole lot of winning and it starts Tuesday night against Iowa. The Hawkeyes have been solid this year (11-5) without a single bad loss (Texas, Syracuse, Michigan State, Iowa State, Northern Iowa) and two outstanding road wins (North Carolina, Ohio State). Yes, they won both at Columbus and Chapel Hill, so I don't think they're going to automatically wilt because it's Williams Arena. The Gophers will have to play well. The Hawkeyes like to play fast, so this should be a fun game at least.
Minnesota 80, Iowa 77.
1. Back door cuts are killing this team. It happened against Ohio State, it happened against Purdue, and it probably happened against Maryland but I slept through most of that game. It happened again big time against Michigan. It doesn't seem to matter if it's man or zone defense, that back door cut is just killing this team. Against Michigan there was a play I actually rewound twice to see if there was a pick, but no, it was just Dre Hollins falling asleep and letting his man go back door. I don't want to single him out because this is a team wide issue (Carlos hi) but it's a constant problem.
2. Mo Walker has become so good he's getting hard doubled. Pretty much every time Walker got the ball on Saturday Michigan sent a second defender, and not in a semi double way in a hard double way. Walkter had no choice but to pass, basically (which killed my Walker over 13.5 points bet) and it made sense because Michigan doesn't have the personnel to guard him one one hone (which is why I made the bet). He did a good job handling it and found open teammates enough times where it should have helped, but a staggering majority of those times whoever received the pass wasn't ready to shoot. Could have made a lot of difference.
3. I have never seen a team throw the ball directly out of bounds as much as this team. The Gophers turned it over 17 times in the game, and I swear at least 8 of them were balls just thrown directly out of bounds. Michigan is a decent team at causing turnovers, but this was just out of control. I gamble kind of a lot (but always within my means!) and a rule I try to follow is never bet on a dumb team. Baylor, LSU, and any team coached by Bruce Weber usually fall into this. The Gophers are trending in this direction.
4. Carlos Morris could end up being really good. Morris is on a really good run. Outside of the Maryland game (which I slept through) he's managed to take his chucker tendencies and turn them into scorer tendencies (this difference is not missing as much). He can hit the outside shot, he loves to drive to the rim, and against Michigan he showed off a very nice post game on a possession which had me like whoa (he did a very nice fake into an up and under which I didn't know he had in him). Morris can score, and there was little doubt of this from day 1, but he's started doing it in a a way that fits the offense. Next year, when he's the clear #1 option (and he will be) he could seriously end up with a spot on an all Big 10 team. For real.
5. That being said, Morris's jump pass is killing me. One thing you can say about Morris is the boy is confident. When he gets the ball and decides it's scoring time he's going to go to the rim and I am fully in favor of it. The problems is, besides the sometimes really bad shots, is that if he doesn't have a shot he'll jump and look to pass. If someone is open he great, good play dude. But when there's no one around he's suddenly finding himself in the air with nowhere to go. It's not good. Or, at best, rarely good.
6. Derrick Walton's jumper is beautiful. Is it Ray Allen beautiful? Of course not, don't be ridiculous, but it's a good looking shot. I know the stats say the long two is the worst shot in basketball and I don't dispute that, but there are some guys who can just hit it enough to make it worthwhile. Walton looks like he's going to be one of those guys. I wish there was a way to get stock on a guy in a way that actually made money, because I'm telling you right now Walton is going to be an absolute superstar by the time he's out of Ann Arbor. You heard it hear first.
7. The Gophers got killed on the boards. I know the final numbers show Minnesota winning the rebound battle, but man they got smoked on so many by a team that's basically running a four guard lineup. Michigan doesn't crash the o-boards, but the got 31% of their own misses against a season average of 26% (including the Minnesota game). There were just too many times a Michigan missed shot resulted in the Wolverines keeping the ball, which is a killer against a team that thrives in transition. On a list of ways to lose the game, giving up offensive boards should have been near the top. The Wolverines only shot 22% from three, which should have been a big part of a Gopher win, but giving up second chances negated that.
8. Michigan does a great job of taking away passing lanes. They did this in both man-to-man and that 1-3-1, but the whoever is on top for Michigan does a great job of making the offense reset. They don't necessarily try to steal the ball, but whenever a Gopher guard on the wing was trying to pass back to the point the Michigan defender was always in the way, making the pass go much further towards half court than the Gophers would like and effectively making them start the offense over. When Michigan switched to the 1-3-1 it was even more pronounced, and unfortunately no Gopher other than Nate Mason understood you need to attack the gaps rather than just work it around the perimeter. Really, Mason impressed me with his understanding of what needed to be done, but he was the only one.
9. Elliott Eliason is broken. There as a play as the game wound down where somebody (and I wish I had the game recorded right now to rewatch this) left the ball off for him and it should have been a one dribble and dunk situation. Instead it resulted in something else bad which I don't remember because he was just so hesitant. I know he's not a good offensive player, and that's just who he is, but at point Elliott seemed to realize that he could score in the right situation and was seeming to develop into a competent player. I have no idea what happened to the man, but he's become nothing more than a back-up center who can grab some rebounds sometime. The difference between who he was early last season and who he is now is staggering, and it's impossible to not wonder what happened with the coaching here. And yes, this is my first questioning of Pitino and staff I think. It happens.
10. I remember talking with someone and saying the Gopher might have the best back court in the conference. They sure aren't playing like it. Dre Hollins is basically playing the same as last year statswise, and he's shooting well but he has seemed to resign himself to being a jump shooter and isn't driving anymore (though you'll notice when the team is playing well it's when he's driving more) and Dre Matheiu is turning into a guy who won't shoot, even though he's a good shooter and who can't take care of the ball. Both are scoring less than last season, and both have disappeared at times. Despite a hot first half Hollins is still shooting like hell at just 10-46 (7-29 from three) in conference play and he's at 7 assists and 7 turnovers in those games. Mathieu might even have been worse - he's totaled 17 turnovers in B10 games against just 8 assists. I think everyone knew that these two were the key to the Gophers' season, and it's turning out that way. If things are going to get turned around, it has to happen here.
11. Extending this to eleven just because I have to mention Joey King Oof. Didn't shoot well, didn't rebound, and turned the ball over like it was his job. One key play towards the end of the game he dove for a ball on the ground and gained possession (good!), had enough wits about him to not call timeout since the Gophers were out (smart!), and, despite multiple teammates around him, was unable to get the ball to one of them, leading to Michigan possession (bad!). It was a huge play at that stage of the game. I know King is just crazy inconsistent and he's never going to be anything resembling a competent ball handler, but he's been brutal. Do you realize he has had more than one rebound in just one of the last five games? He's 6-9 for christ's sake. Ridiculous.
0-4 is a pretty major hole to dig your way out of, but it can be done. Kenpom still projected the Gophers to finish the conference season at 8-10, and if they could basically do that but steal just one game they aren't supposed to win (without the corresponding bad loss) that's 9-9 and in the ballpark for an NCAA bid. They'll probably need to go 10-8 to feel good, which means a whole lot of winning and it starts Tuesday night against Iowa. The Hawkeyes have been solid this year (11-5) without a single bad loss (Texas, Syracuse, Michigan State, Iowa State, Northern Iowa) and two outstanding road wins (North Carolina, Ohio State). Yes, they won both at Columbus and Chapel Hill, so I don't think they're going to automatically wilt because it's Williams Arena. The Gophers will have to play well. The Hawkeyes like to play fast, so this should be a fun game at least.
Wednesday, December 17, 2014
Rube Roundtable, Year 3
Every year around this lull in the year, ZipsofAkron from the much smarter than mine blog From the Barn sends some Gopher related questions out to blogger types. Most years I remember to answer them. This is one of those years. My answers are below. I will post a link to his blog when he compiles all the answers from us nerds.
1) So, uh, we're down to 9 scholarship players and a Kendal Shell. Your thoughts?
1) So, uh, we're down to 9 scholarship players and a Kendal Shell. Your thoughts?
Well, it's better than 8 scholarship players and no Kendal Shell. With or without Diedhiou, they have enough non-horrible players to come up with a playable rotation, even if it means heavier than you'd like minutes for some guys. The real problem is going to come if there's foul trouble, and you know there will be foul trouble. There are going to have to be a couple new walk-ons here soon, if only to have the bodies to weather a worst case type scenario. And walk-ons are always fun in blowouts. They think they're people.
7) In the same vein, what does this program need to do to take the next step?
College basketball, in my opinion, is ruled by recruiting. A good game coach (game plan and/or in game) can help elevate a team, but the disparity in talent between the top players and the rest is insurmountable by any coach, so that's the key. Pitino has the team moving in the right direction in this arena, but the rumors of his leaving every off season to take a "better" job are only going to get louder if he continues to build the program up (or hell, as long as he doesn't burn it to the ground). In order to continue to build their talent and keep creeping up the recruit ladder they need to keep Pitino. If he is hired away, it's likely because he's had success here so they need to make a hire who can keep that going, although I'm not sure where you can find someone young and hungry enough to take this job and work that hard who is also somewhat of a known commodity based on household name recognition. So I guess the answer is to give him as many blank checks as needed so he never leaves. Pretty simple.
Coming soon: Some baseball talk. Maybe a live movie blog.
2) Last year the Gophers won the NIT. What are your expectations this year?
This has already changed three times for me. At the beginner of the year I was thinking they definitely need to make the NCAA Tournament for this season to be a success. Then, after the preseason NIT or whatever I thought this team was way too dumb to end up making the tournament and figured the season was heading for a train wreck. Now, however, Big Ten teams are dropping games left and right - at home - to terrible teams. I figure if the Big Ten is as down as it seems, and the Gophers are at least mostly taking care of business, they should be able to get to 10 conference wins and, no matter how terrible terrible terrible terrible terrible the non-conference schedule was I can't see a 10 win Big Ten team getting bounced. Thus, I believe this should be an NCAA Tournament team. I reserve the right to change this when they get their doors blown off at Purdue.
3) What do you miss most about Maverick Ahanmisi?
The angst he caused. The twitter meltdowns. The clueless threads on Gopherhole (turns out I can still find plenty of those on a myriad of other topics). By the end of his career he had turned himself into a halfway decent, albeit streaky, spot up outside shooter who deserved a chance against zones to see if he was hot. Should he ever have been allowed to dribble? No, of course not. Did he do a lot of really dumb stuff with the basketball? Yes, almost constantly. Could he play defense? Very little. Wait, what was the question again?
4) What about Gopher basketball is going to give you an ulcer this year?
Easy answer is Carlos Morris, but when you go the JuCo route a certain amount of chuckery and undisciplined ball is expected so I'll give him a pass and say Joey King, and I don't really want to say Joey King, but it's Joey King. He clearly works hard. He's got a really nice shot fake, he's a much better rebounder than he was, he's even developed himself some semblance of a post up game, a far cry from the perimeter offense only type he was when he first arrived. That's all great, but he just does some horrible things. Nobody has ever been worse in the open court, ever, and he still likes to put up a really dumb shot at least once or twice a game. He also constantly uses that shot fake to get his defender of his feet, but then doesn't do anything with that advantage (that alone is enough to give me an ulcer). Of course there's nothing he can do when he's overpowered or out-athleticked, but the mere fact that's he's basically the team's only option is ulcer-worthy as well.
5) Maryland and Rutgers are real Big Ten members. How do you feel about this from a hoopsball perspective?
I love conference expansion because I love getting a chance to see new teams and players in person, and given the traditional home non-conference schedule for this program that doesn't happen very often. I still don't understand why they can't schedule home and homes with like, Colorado or Oklahoma State, or Seton Hall or other mid-tier big conference schools, but I digress.
I like seeing new teams. I don't care about exposure or tv sets in new markets or blah blah blah, but I'm also not wrapped up in "traditional rivalries are being destroyed" or any of that stuff that always sounds like it's being yelled by an old man in a bath robe who is shaking his fist at a newspaper. New teams are fun. Maryland is fun. Rutgers exists.
6) Real talk. Are we on the up and up or is this just another foray into unmet expectations and mediocrity?
Every time one administration flops and a new coach comes in there is always plenty of blind optimism, and I'm as guilty as anyone. So far, that optimism hasn't lasted, and there's another flop and the cycle continues. I'm hoping this one is for real, because I'm hoping Richard Pitino is for real. Being mentored by Rick Pitino and Billy Donovan is about as good an education as you could ask for, and Pitino (and his staff, can't forget McHale and Kimani) are tireless workers on the recruiting trail. Their in game schemes, plays, and game plans are inventive and exciting. Mo Walker's improvement suggests they may be good at player development, which would make this staff 3-for-3 in what you need from a college coach. Monson was hamstrung by needing to rebuild a shattered program, Tubby was looking to go out in a cushy job where he could half ass it (my perception), but Pitino should be good to go. So I guess I think we're on the up and up. I'm so stupid.
College basketball, in my opinion, is ruled by recruiting. A good game coach (game plan and/or in game) can help elevate a team, but the disparity in talent between the top players and the rest is insurmountable by any coach, so that's the key. Pitino has the team moving in the right direction in this arena, but the rumors of his leaving every off season to take a "better" job are only going to get louder if he continues to build the program up (or hell, as long as he doesn't burn it to the ground). In order to continue to build their talent and keep creeping up the recruit ladder they need to keep Pitino. If he is hired away, it's likely because he's had success here so they need to make a hire who can keep that going, although I'm not sure where you can find someone young and hungry enough to take this job and work that hard who is also somewhat of a known commodity based on household name recognition. So I guess the answer is to give him as many blank checks as needed so he never leaves. Pretty simple.
Coming soon: Some baseball talk. Maybe a live movie blog.
Tuesday, December 9, 2014
Big Ten Chuckers, Power Ranking #2
With the next 2-3 weeks really nothing but meaningless games it's doubtful I'll be writing any game previews or recaps. When somebody goes rogue transfer like Martin I'll hit it and when/if Diedhiou becomes eligible that's post worthy, but there probably won't be a whole lot of Gopher specific stuff until a wrap up/preview before conference play starts. For now, I'll do more fun stuff, and what's more fun than checking in on our chuckers for Power Ranking #2. Last week's rank in parenthesis.
1. TRE DEMPS, Northwestern (1). Demps remains the master, shooting 7-27 in his last three games with a 1-7 and 1-8 mixed in. On the season he's now taking 29% of Northwestern's shots when he's in the game with a 37% hit rate on 2s and 29% on 3s. His 2-1 assist-to-turnover rate is the only thing holding him back from being one of the most perfect chuckers in history. He's fifth in the conference in missed shots, and only attempts 11 per game. That's impressive. Bonus points because he usually becomes super good towards the end of close games. It's quite a super power.
2. MIKE WILLIAMS, Rutgers (8). I had no idea who Williams was at the beginning of the year, but he's really growing on me. Just a freshman, he burst onto the scene shooting 7-29 in his first four career games, and he hasn't gotten much better, shooting just 33% on twos and 24% on threes on the season. He's taking 25% of his team's shots when he's on the floor on a team with two clear senior leaders (Myles Mack and Kadeem Jack), and he's averaging more shots per game (8.8) than points (7.3) which is pretty fantastic. From the volume shooting to the inability to make any baskets, Williams is a really strong contender. And we get three more years. [2-6 on Tuesday. Don't get shy, Mike.]
3. TERRAN PETTEWAY, Nebraska (7). It's time to talk about Petteway. Fantastic player, obviously. He's averaging 21 points, 5 rebounds, 3 assists, a steal, and a block per game this year, outstanding numbers. Make no mistake though - he's a chucker. He's taking 35% of the Huskers shots when he's on the floor (which ranks 24th in the entire country and 4th among major conference schools) and hitting 47% from two and 36% from three which puts his eFG% under 50%. He's also turning the ball over nearly 4 times per game, and threw up a game where he shot 5-18 and turned it over 8 times earlier this year. So yeah, he's a fantastic player, but he's also a big time chucker. Never forget.
4. CARLOS MORRIS, Minnesota (4). Morris has an unfair advantage because I get to watch almost all his games, but he definitely belongs. A couple of really efficient games have bumped his eFG% up to 46% which is getting a little too close to respectability for my tastes (combined 13-19 shooting in his last two is no good), but his refusal to pass the ball is as strong as ever. He does average 2.0 assists per game, but that's against 2.4 turnovers and considering he's a wing on a team that ranks 9th in the country with an assist on 66% of their made baskets that's not very impressive. Plus, just watch him sometime. [5-9 Monday. Continues to be efficient. Not going to drop him much until I see it against a good team, but we could really use more chucking here.]
5. KENDALL STEPHENS, Purdue (NR). I said at the beginning of the year that Purdue was set up to have at least one guy on this list, and right now it looks like Stephens is the guy. I had Bryson Scott on here for both of my first two lists, but he just doesn't shoot enough (though a 1-6 in 12 minutes recently is nice). Stephens, however, is starting to look like a more than worthy replacement. His shot percentage is a solid 26%, and though his eFG% is higher than I'd like at 52% he's started to put up much better chucker looking numbers with a 1-9, 2-11, and 2-7 in his last three outings. Add in that 70% of his attempts are from three and somehow he's shooting an insane 19% from two this year (4-22) and I think he's the Boiler for the job. [5-11 Monday. Good shot amount in 22 minutes. Could be a high riser.]
6. KADEEM JACK, Rutgers (NR). Jack has always been a high usage player for the Scarlet Knights, and he's kept it up this year (31% shots) but he's added a new wrinkle to his game - he can't make anything. He missed the first two games of the year but has made up for it with some seriously prolific chucking including an 8-23 performance against Vandy and a ridiculous 3-15 vs. Seton Hall, leading to a 37% shooting percentage and a scoring average more than 2 points lower than last season. He's never been much for passing (his average of 1.5 assists per game this year is a career high) but his season total of 9 assists vs. 17 turnovers is worth noting. If his shot doesn't come back he could challenge for the crown. [3-9 Tuesday with 7 turnovers to boot. Something could be brewing here.]
7. BRYANT MCINTOSH, Northwestern (9). When I put McIntosh on here last time I said I figured he wouldn't last long. So far, at least, I was wrong. Since my last post (5 games) he's shot 15-48 including a 1-10 game against Georgia Tech, and I just can't ignore that kind of non-production no matter how good he is at passing - and he is, averaging 5 assists per game (against 2.5 TOs) with an assist rate ranking in the top 40 in the country. He's still taking 23% of his team's shots when he's on the floor, and as long as he keeps up that volume while being unable to actually put the ball in the basket it'll be tough to keep him off this list. There are plenty of good distributors who are terrible shooters, most of them don't heave the ball at the hoop this often. And that's why he's a chucker.
8. KAMERON CHATMAN, Michigan (NR). Another freshman who just DGAF, the most impressive thing about Chatman is how he's 6-7 and he just hates the paint. Loathes it. Treats it like my kids treat the floor when they do that thing where the floor is hot lava. I say that because I perusing the sweet site hoop-math.com, and Chatman has taken 6% of his shots at the rim this year. I will just tell you that is insanely low. For reference there is no Gopher under 10%, and no other Wolverine under 15% - it's a really low number, especially for someone who is 6-7. I also noticed that 100% of his baskets at the rim are assisted, which means he never drives, he just stands around and chucks jumpers, like when he shot 0-6 in their hilariously awesome loss to NJIT. On the season he's now at 34% on twos and 21% on threes, and if he continues to be allergic to the rim he could be one to watch. [0-2 Tuesday. [Shot amount is unfortunate, but at least he missed them both.]
9. BRANDON TAYLOR, Penn State (NR). Taylor's actually similar to Chatman in that he hates scoring in the paint too (10.5%), but he has fewer excuses. He's not a skinny freshman like Chatman, he's a 6-6, 225 lb. junior who averages 6.4 rebounds per game, so it's not like he's incapable of playing in the paint, he just doesn't want to. Now, granted, this can be a valid plan and has worked for many players in the past. It does not, however, generally work when you're shooting just 29% from three (15-51) especially when you're taking more threes than twos. Nothing new for Taylor since in his three seasons he's averaged 3.5 or more 3 attempts per game each year and failed to ever break better than 32% accuracy. I really should have had him on the list earlier.
10. JARROD UTHOFF, Iowa (NR). Uthoff likes to shoot (25% shot percentage) and he's not particularly horrible at it (40% twos, 39% threes) but his eFG is still just 48% so he qualifies, and he deserves mention on this list because of that horrendous 40% twos for a 6-9 player. I checked a handful of other teams and the only other guy who combines that kind of volume and ineptitude with that height is Kadeem Jack, number 6 on this list. Special shout out to his 2-13 game against North Carolina, though in fairness he also grabbed 11 rebounds. I don't see Uthoff sticking on this list for very long, but I wanted to recognize him while he's not hot. [6-11 Tuesday. Vs. Alcorn State. So meh.]
Notable feats in chucking around the country:
1. CAZMON HAYES, Delaware. If we are looking for the best chucker in the nation, we might not have to look any further. Just look at this line: 15.4ppg, 29% field goal percentage, 0.7 assists per game. Glorious. He has a 3-18 and a 4-21 shooting on the year. Also a 6-21. His best shooting game he went 4-9 and I assume he must have been in foul trouble to only get off 9 shots. He has five assists the entire season. He's shooting 9 threes per game despite hitting just 29%. Even better, last year he only averaged 10 minutes and two shots per game. Get yours, Caz, get yours.
2. KYLE WILTJER, Gonzaga. Wiltjer transferred from Kentucky in order to get out under the shackles of a tightly called and tightly run Calipari offense, and he's certainly had free reign to chuck away since becoming a Zag (35% shot percentage). Never was that more evident than against Georgia when he put up 26 shots. It's really hard to shoot 26 times in one game, especially when your team shoots 52. Some quick math tells me that's half the team's attempts, which I don't think is how most offenses are supposed to be run. He did make 14 which is not chucker like, but when you take half your team's shots and put up the second most attempts of any player in a game this year (behind DJ Newbill who took 33 in a 2OT game) it's worth noting.
3. DAMON LYNN, NJIT. This is a pretty good one, because Lynn had a god awful chucker level game against Marquette not long after the last Chucker Update, shooting 4-20 with five turnovers in a game the Highlanders lost by just five, a game they might have won if Lynn makes a few more shots. Then came the big upset win over Michigan which was pretty awesome, and Lynn is the hero, hitting 7-16 (6-10 on threes) and coming up huge, nailing that huge, soul crushing, monster three pointer with about two minutes left when Michigan looked like they might be about to retake the game. Chucker redemption at its finest.
4. MARCELLUS BARKSDALE, IUPUI. Though he did put up back-to-back performances worthy of a call out (4-14 and 2-11 shooting), he's mainly just here because I saw his name pop up in my top secret chucker formula and actually said "holy shit" out loud. What a sweet name. Marcellus Wallace and Avon Barksdale had a baby, and he loves throwing the ball in the basic direction of the hoop. Also, I love Pulp Fiction (duh) and I just finished season 4 of The Wire so I'm still in that "holy crap you guys The Wire is so good I can't believe I never watched it" mode. Seriously though, holy crap you guys The Wire is so good I can't believe I never watched it.
5. PHIL FORTE, Oklahoma State. Phil has carried on the Forte tradition of being an excellent college basketball player started by Joe and Jason and probably Matt. He's not here because he's a terrible shooter, because he's generally pretty good. He is, however, a 3-point bomber with two thirds of his shots coming from behind the arc at a clip of over 8 attempts per game. He's around a 40% shooter from there in his career so he's a pretty valuable weapon. However with a weapon like that, occasionally things can go drastically wrong. Forte fell apart against South Carolina on Saturday, going 1-14 from the field and 1-10 from three as the Cowboys got blasted 75-49. It was pretty much disaster all around as the team shot sub 25% for the game. It is hard to win that way.
1. TRE DEMPS, Northwestern (1). Demps remains the master, shooting 7-27 in his last three games with a 1-7 and 1-8 mixed in. On the season he's now taking 29% of Northwestern's shots when he's in the game with a 37% hit rate on 2s and 29% on 3s. His 2-1 assist-to-turnover rate is the only thing holding him back from being one of the most perfect chuckers in history. He's fifth in the conference in missed shots, and only attempts 11 per game. That's impressive. Bonus points because he usually becomes super good towards the end of close games. It's quite a super power.
2. MIKE WILLIAMS, Rutgers (8). I had no idea who Williams was at the beginning of the year, but he's really growing on me. Just a freshman, he burst onto the scene shooting 7-29 in his first four career games, and he hasn't gotten much better, shooting just 33% on twos and 24% on threes on the season. He's taking 25% of his team's shots when he's on the floor on a team with two clear senior leaders (Myles Mack and Kadeem Jack), and he's averaging more shots per game (8.8) than points (7.3) which is pretty fantastic. From the volume shooting to the inability to make any baskets, Williams is a really strong contender. And we get three more years. [2-6 on Tuesday. Don't get shy, Mike.]
3. TERRAN PETTEWAY, Nebraska (7). It's time to talk about Petteway. Fantastic player, obviously. He's averaging 21 points, 5 rebounds, 3 assists, a steal, and a block per game this year, outstanding numbers. Make no mistake though - he's a chucker. He's taking 35% of the Huskers shots when he's on the floor (which ranks 24th in the entire country and 4th among major conference schools) and hitting 47% from two and 36% from three which puts his eFG% under 50%. He's also turning the ball over nearly 4 times per game, and threw up a game where he shot 5-18 and turned it over 8 times earlier this year. So yeah, he's a fantastic player, but he's also a big time chucker. Never forget.
4. CARLOS MORRIS, Minnesota (4). Morris has an unfair advantage because I get to watch almost all his games, but he definitely belongs. A couple of really efficient games have bumped his eFG% up to 46% which is getting a little too close to respectability for my tastes (combined 13-19 shooting in his last two is no good), but his refusal to pass the ball is as strong as ever. He does average 2.0 assists per game, but that's against 2.4 turnovers and considering he's a wing on a team that ranks 9th in the country with an assist on 66% of their made baskets that's not very impressive. Plus, just watch him sometime. [5-9 Monday. Continues to be efficient. Not going to drop him much until I see it against a good team, but we could really use more chucking here.]
5. KENDALL STEPHENS, Purdue (NR). I said at the beginning of the year that Purdue was set up to have at least one guy on this list, and right now it looks like Stephens is the guy. I had Bryson Scott on here for both of my first two lists, but he just doesn't shoot enough (though a 1-6 in 12 minutes recently is nice). Stephens, however, is starting to look like a more than worthy replacement. His shot percentage is a solid 26%, and though his eFG% is higher than I'd like at 52% he's started to put up much better chucker looking numbers with a 1-9, 2-11, and 2-7 in his last three outings. Add in that 70% of his attempts are from three and somehow he's shooting an insane 19% from two this year (4-22) and I think he's the Boiler for the job. [5-11 Monday. Good shot amount in 22 minutes. Could be a high riser.]
6. KADEEM JACK, Rutgers (NR). Jack has always been a high usage player for the Scarlet Knights, and he's kept it up this year (31% shots) but he's added a new wrinkle to his game - he can't make anything. He missed the first two games of the year but has made up for it with some seriously prolific chucking including an 8-23 performance against Vandy and a ridiculous 3-15 vs. Seton Hall, leading to a 37% shooting percentage and a scoring average more than 2 points lower than last season. He's never been much for passing (his average of 1.5 assists per game this year is a career high) but his season total of 9 assists vs. 17 turnovers is worth noting. If his shot doesn't come back he could challenge for the crown. [3-9 Tuesday with 7 turnovers to boot. Something could be brewing here.]
7. BRYANT MCINTOSH, Northwestern (9). When I put McIntosh on here last time I said I figured he wouldn't last long. So far, at least, I was wrong. Since my last post (5 games) he's shot 15-48 including a 1-10 game against Georgia Tech, and I just can't ignore that kind of non-production no matter how good he is at passing - and he is, averaging 5 assists per game (against 2.5 TOs) with an assist rate ranking in the top 40 in the country. He's still taking 23% of his team's shots when he's on the floor, and as long as he keeps up that volume while being unable to actually put the ball in the basket it'll be tough to keep him off this list. There are plenty of good distributors who are terrible shooters, most of them don't heave the ball at the hoop this often. And that's why he's a chucker.
8. KAMERON CHATMAN, Michigan (NR). Another freshman who just DGAF, the most impressive thing about Chatman is how he's 6-7 and he just hates the paint. Loathes it. Treats it like my kids treat the floor when they do that thing where the floor is hot lava. I say that because I perusing the sweet site hoop-math.com, and Chatman has taken 6% of his shots at the rim this year. I will just tell you that is insanely low. For reference there is no Gopher under 10%, and no other Wolverine under 15% - it's a really low number, especially for someone who is 6-7. I also noticed that 100% of his baskets at the rim are assisted, which means he never drives, he just stands around and chucks jumpers, like when he shot 0-6 in their hilariously awesome loss to NJIT. On the season he's now at 34% on twos and 21% on threes, and if he continues to be allergic to the rim he could be one to watch. [0-2 Tuesday. [Shot amount is unfortunate, but at least he missed them both.]
9. BRANDON TAYLOR, Penn State (NR). Taylor's actually similar to Chatman in that he hates scoring in the paint too (10.5%), but he has fewer excuses. He's not a skinny freshman like Chatman, he's a 6-6, 225 lb. junior who averages 6.4 rebounds per game, so it's not like he's incapable of playing in the paint, he just doesn't want to. Now, granted, this can be a valid plan and has worked for many players in the past. It does not, however, generally work when you're shooting just 29% from three (15-51) especially when you're taking more threes than twos. Nothing new for Taylor since in his three seasons he's averaged 3.5 or more 3 attempts per game each year and failed to ever break better than 32% accuracy. I really should have had him on the list earlier.
10. JARROD UTHOFF, Iowa (NR). Uthoff likes to shoot (25% shot percentage) and he's not particularly horrible at it (40% twos, 39% threes) but his eFG is still just 48% so he qualifies, and he deserves mention on this list because of that horrendous 40% twos for a 6-9 player. I checked a handful of other teams and the only other guy who combines that kind of volume and ineptitude with that height is Kadeem Jack, number 6 on this list. Special shout out to his 2-13 game against North Carolina, though in fairness he also grabbed 11 rebounds. I don't see Uthoff sticking on this list for very long, but I wanted to recognize him while he's not hot. [6-11 Tuesday. Vs. Alcorn State. So meh.]
Notable feats in chucking around the country:
1. CAZMON HAYES, Delaware. If we are looking for the best chucker in the nation, we might not have to look any further. Just look at this line: 15.4ppg, 29% field goal percentage, 0.7 assists per game. Glorious. He has a 3-18 and a 4-21 shooting on the year. Also a 6-21. His best shooting game he went 4-9 and I assume he must have been in foul trouble to only get off 9 shots. He has five assists the entire season. He's shooting 9 threes per game despite hitting just 29%. Even better, last year he only averaged 10 minutes and two shots per game. Get yours, Caz, get yours.
2. KYLE WILTJER, Gonzaga. Wiltjer transferred from Kentucky in order to get out under the shackles of a tightly called and tightly run Calipari offense, and he's certainly had free reign to chuck away since becoming a Zag (35% shot percentage). Never was that more evident than against Georgia when he put up 26 shots. It's really hard to shoot 26 times in one game, especially when your team shoots 52. Some quick math tells me that's half the team's attempts, which I don't think is how most offenses are supposed to be run. He did make 14 which is not chucker like, but when you take half your team's shots and put up the second most attempts of any player in a game this year (behind DJ Newbill who took 33 in a 2OT game) it's worth noting.
3. DAMON LYNN, NJIT. This is a pretty good one, because Lynn had a god awful chucker level game against Marquette not long after the last Chucker Update, shooting 4-20 with five turnovers in a game the Highlanders lost by just five, a game they might have won if Lynn makes a few more shots. Then came the big upset win over Michigan which was pretty awesome, and Lynn is the hero, hitting 7-16 (6-10 on threes) and coming up huge, nailing that huge, soul crushing, monster three pointer with about two minutes left when Michigan looked like they might be about to retake the game. Chucker redemption at its finest.
4. MARCELLUS BARKSDALE, IUPUI. Though he did put up back-to-back performances worthy of a call out (4-14 and 2-11 shooting), he's mainly just here because I saw his name pop up in my top secret chucker formula and actually said "holy shit" out loud. What a sweet name. Marcellus Wallace and Avon Barksdale had a baby, and he loves throwing the ball in the basic direction of the hoop. Also, I love Pulp Fiction (duh) and I just finished season 4 of The Wire so I'm still in that "holy crap you guys The Wire is so good I can't believe I never watched it" mode. Seriously though, holy crap you guys The Wire is so good I can't believe I never watched it.
5. PHIL FORTE, Oklahoma State. Phil has carried on the Forte tradition of being an excellent college basketball player started by Joe and Jason and probably Matt. He's not here because he's a terrible shooter, because he's generally pretty good. He is, however, a 3-point bomber with two thirds of his shots coming from behind the arc at a clip of over 8 attempts per game. He's around a 40% shooter from there in his career so he's a pretty valuable weapon. However with a weapon like that, occasionally things can go drastically wrong. Forte fell apart against South Carolina on Saturday, going 1-14 from the field and 1-10 from three as the Cowboys got blasted 75-49. It was pretty much disaster all around as the team shot sub 25% for the game. It is hard to win that way.
Wednesday, December 3, 2014
Gophers 84, Wake Forest 69
Ok so I was wrong. Wake did get to the line a ton but didn't shoot well once there, the Gophers controlled their rebounding, and the Gophers shot the bell well and got a great night out of Andre Hollins. Wake was as bad as I thought and the Gophers were just better. It's nice to see them take care of business against an inferior opponent on the road, not that they'll have to do that again for a month or so. Anyway, here's ten things.
1. Can we get this Dre Hollins all the time? Man is he fun to watch when he gets going like tonight. It seems like it's been a rough go with him lately, what with his regression to chucker and turnover machine status so far this year, but tonight he had it all working again and it was glorious. His shot was so on he was NBA Jam On Fire in the second half and he was active the whole game, resulting in 7 boards. He did have 3 turnovers but that's acceptable, even against 0 assists because he's just not a point guard anymore. It's pretty much Mathieu or Mason getting the ball handling work, and I'm actually more comfortable with either of them than with Dre, so it works for me. He's a scorer, so go be a scorer.
2. The press continues to work. You can't say Pitino hasn't changed this team's style, that's for sure. They're fast - last night's game ended up at 77 possessions, just shy of the Louisville game and helped speed Wake up to a faster pace than they generally like, which ended up in sloppy possessions and a whole mess of Gopher turnovers once again. Wake gave the ball away on 23% of their possessions with the Gophers stealing the ball 13 times (18 total TOs), an incredible number which upped their % to 14.7% on the year, 7th highest in the country. It's worth mentioning that last night's press was more aggressive with trapping than the press usually is, suggesting Pitino knew Wake was a questionable ball handling team and intentionally upped the pressure. It's a little thing and may seem obvious, but I know other coaches here didn't make little adjustments like that from game to game. It's nice to see that attention to detail and willingness to tweak things based on opponent.
3. The Gopher guards do a really nice job against ball screens. Aaron Craft got a lot of pub last year about how he's the best defender ever and stuff like that, and he was good, but one of the things he was exceptional at was slithering over the top of a ball screen (Shannon Scott too, which is why OSU was so good defensively last year). If you can slip between the screener and the ball handler, nobody has to hedge or help or switch or rotate, and it becomes a wasted motion by the offense that takes up time but does nothing towards getting the offensive team closer to scoring. It's a valuable skill, and the Gopher guards are good at it (not Craft or Scott good, but good enough to be mentioned). Mathieu is on that Scott/Craft level, Hollins can do it every time if his offensive game is clicking (yes, sorry, but his offensive game triggers his defensive level of effort, it's true), and I've seen Mason do it more often than you'd expect a freshman too. It's not a stat and doesn't show up in the paper or our fantasy league, but it's a really valuable skill and three Gopher guards have it. Nice.
4. I'm going to say something nice about Carlos Morris. There are parts of his undisciplined JuCo wild approach that work because of his athleticism. Eight steals last night is awesome, and yes, many of them game with him gambling and taking chances (which is fine) and there were times he missed the steal and gave Wake an easy path to the basket or to break the press (which happens) but as long as his gambles are paying off with 8 steals, I'll take it. I also really like how when he gets a rebound he'll just turn and book it down court. Mathieu is the only other one who does that. They just fly and then assess if they should continue to attack or pull back once they cross the timeline rather than let the defense get back and get set right away. I love it, and I think more Gophers should do it when they get a board (NOT Joey King). I didn't like Morris's shot selection, six turnovers, or that time he went up for a (ill advised) jumper and chucked the ball straight backwards, but I've been hammering on him and he's not really all bad, he just needs to be controlled a little bit - like a pet alligator.
5. Beyond just Morris, this team turns into a really dumb team sometimes. I really hate dumb teams. As an avid gambler one of my biggest rules is "never bet on a dumb team." It's one of my strongest rules along with "never take an under on Marcus Paige or Yogi Ferrell" and "don't ever bet on a football team who can't throw". Sometimes, however, you don't know who is a dumb team, and sometimes smart teams turn into dumb teams, and all this is just me finding a way to say that I'm starting to fear that this Gopher team is dumb. Dumb teams take stupid shots, make dumb turnovers, foul too much and at stupid times, miss tons of free throws, and give up easy buckets with defensive lapses including but not limited to not getting back in transition which the Gophers did like 117 times last game (I didn't count). So far this year the Gophers take stupid shots, make dumb turnovers, foul too much and at stupid times, miss tons of free throws, and give up easy buckets with defensive lapses including but not limited to not getting back in transition. I'm absolutely terrified for the rest of this year.
6. The Gophers kept going to a pretty simple play, and it kept resulting in 3 points. It's nothing special, really, but they used it several times and Hollins got two three-pointers out of it and King got one. Shooter guy starts on one wing and just sprints to the opposite corner or wing, rubbing off a back pick on the near wing and a second pick on the opposite block. It's basically just two picks, but it worked early for the Gophers and they kept going back to it, rightly so since it worked several times. They also ran a modified version for Carlos Morris where instead of going to the corner or wing for a jumper he turned it into a curl cut where he's already moving towards the bucket when he receives the ball. Good modification. Good play.
7. Josh Martin is going to be a really good rebounder some day. His box score looks pretty brutal with just six minutes played and 1 rebound (to go with one missed shot, two turnovers, and two fouls) but I paid attention to Martin last night and I saw some promising things, mainly around rebounding. Offensive or defensive, he was always in good position and got his hand on 2-3 other rebounds that he couldn't corral because his positioning was perfect. He also got shoved almost all the way under the basket by some Wake guy on a free throw so we're still a little ways off, but he'll get there. I'm going to say one year in the future he'll average as many as EIGHT rebounds per game. You heard it here first.
8. Mo Walker, rim protector? Walker is never going to be confused for Antoine Broxsie or Jerome Holman when it comes to shot blocking, what with 37 career blocks coming into this season, but suddenly he's a different defender. The combination of the weight loss, recovery from injury, and the confidence he's gained after a successful season last year have him as active as I've ever seen defensively and it's paying off big time. I always considered Eliason the defensive presence and Walker the offensive banger, but this year Walker is averaging 1.6 blocks in 20 minutes per game, blocking 9.8% of the opponents shot attempts while he's on the floor. That's an incredible number that's doubled from last season and is almost 3 times higher than Eliason, and it ranks as the 42nd best percentage in DI (behind only A.J. Hammons, Alex Olah, and Michal Cekovsky in the B10). I didn't notice this until last night when he was challenging, and blocking, shots but man, what a huge development.
9. The Gophers look really good in transition, thanks to Mathieu. Boy is this team fun to watch in transition. I love when Mathieu just takes off and guys are sprinting to fill lanes. He's incredibly good at being able to observe the defenders at 100mph and know when to go to the rim, when to pull back, and my favorite is when he'll kind of drift towards the off ball defender, knowing a teammate is screaming up the opposite wing and he can hit him with either pass leading towards the rim or a kick out for an open three attempt. He struggles against teams who can challenge his quickness, but when he has it going like last night (8 assists) it's a thing of beauty. I still wish he'd look for his shot a bit more since he is a quality shooter but he's down a full 2 shot attempts per game this year. Don't worry, that's not a complaint. Love this guy.
10. So by my count the Big Ten now leads the challenge 6-2. That's good! They only need two more wins to win this thing which would be the sixth straight year of the Big Ten not losing after losing the first ten iterations of this thing. Normally I'm not one who cares about rooting for your conference and usually I hope any and all rivals face ruthless and humiliating defeats whenever possible, but in this case Big Ten wins help the Gophers. It bumps up any winning team's RPI, and by extension the whole conference's RPI, and if the B10 does well it helps the national perception of the teams which can only help in March when those nerds go into their sealed room and start talking about NCAA Tournament bids. So yeah, in general I root for the Big Ten in these games, except for Iowa and I hope a black hole opens up in Madison tonight and swallows Wisconsin, Duke, and all the fans of those teams in attendance into Bolivian. Who wouldn't want that?
So that's it for meaningful games until the conference slate opens on New Year's Eve at Purdue. Until then it's a bunch of garbage. Next up is Western Carolina on Wednesday, and other than Kevin Martin possibly showing up (it's his alma mater and the Wolves are in town, though they play the Rockets and I don't know the rules like if he has to be there when he's hurt or if he can go to the Gopher game) there's not a whole lot to be excited about. Really not the Martin thing either because meh.
1. Can we get this Dre Hollins all the time? Man is he fun to watch when he gets going like tonight. It seems like it's been a rough go with him lately, what with his regression to chucker and turnover machine status so far this year, but tonight he had it all working again and it was glorious. His shot was so on he was NBA Jam On Fire in the second half and he was active the whole game, resulting in 7 boards. He did have 3 turnovers but that's acceptable, even against 0 assists because he's just not a point guard anymore. It's pretty much Mathieu or Mason getting the ball handling work, and I'm actually more comfortable with either of them than with Dre, so it works for me. He's a scorer, so go be a scorer.
2. The press continues to work. You can't say Pitino hasn't changed this team's style, that's for sure. They're fast - last night's game ended up at 77 possessions, just shy of the Louisville game and helped speed Wake up to a faster pace than they generally like, which ended up in sloppy possessions and a whole mess of Gopher turnovers once again. Wake gave the ball away on 23% of their possessions with the Gophers stealing the ball 13 times (18 total TOs), an incredible number which upped their % to 14.7% on the year, 7th highest in the country. It's worth mentioning that last night's press was more aggressive with trapping than the press usually is, suggesting Pitino knew Wake was a questionable ball handling team and intentionally upped the pressure. It's a little thing and may seem obvious, but I know other coaches here didn't make little adjustments like that from game to game. It's nice to see that attention to detail and willingness to tweak things based on opponent.
3. The Gopher guards do a really nice job against ball screens. Aaron Craft got a lot of pub last year about how he's the best defender ever and stuff like that, and he was good, but one of the things he was exceptional at was slithering over the top of a ball screen (Shannon Scott too, which is why OSU was so good defensively last year). If you can slip between the screener and the ball handler, nobody has to hedge or help or switch or rotate, and it becomes a wasted motion by the offense that takes up time but does nothing towards getting the offensive team closer to scoring. It's a valuable skill, and the Gopher guards are good at it (not Craft or Scott good, but good enough to be mentioned). Mathieu is on that Scott/Craft level, Hollins can do it every time if his offensive game is clicking (yes, sorry, but his offensive game triggers his defensive level of effort, it's true), and I've seen Mason do it more often than you'd expect a freshman too. It's not a stat and doesn't show up in the paper or our fantasy league, but it's a really valuable skill and three Gopher guards have it. Nice.
4. I'm going to say something nice about Carlos Morris. There are parts of his undisciplined JuCo wild approach that work because of his athleticism. Eight steals last night is awesome, and yes, many of them game with him gambling and taking chances (which is fine) and there were times he missed the steal and gave Wake an easy path to the basket or to break the press (which happens) but as long as his gambles are paying off with 8 steals, I'll take it. I also really like how when he gets a rebound he'll just turn and book it down court. Mathieu is the only other one who does that. They just fly and then assess if they should continue to attack or pull back once they cross the timeline rather than let the defense get back and get set right away. I love it, and I think more Gophers should do it when they get a board (NOT Joey King). I didn't like Morris's shot selection, six turnovers, or that time he went up for a (ill advised) jumper and chucked the ball straight backwards, but I've been hammering on him and he's not really all bad, he just needs to be controlled a little bit - like a pet alligator.
5. Beyond just Morris, this team turns into a really dumb team sometimes. I really hate dumb teams. As an avid gambler one of my biggest rules is "never bet on a dumb team." It's one of my strongest rules along with "never take an under on Marcus Paige or Yogi Ferrell" and "don't ever bet on a football team who can't throw". Sometimes, however, you don't know who is a dumb team, and sometimes smart teams turn into dumb teams, and all this is just me finding a way to say that I'm starting to fear that this Gopher team is dumb. Dumb teams take stupid shots, make dumb turnovers, foul too much and at stupid times, miss tons of free throws, and give up easy buckets with defensive lapses including but not limited to not getting back in transition which the Gophers did like 117 times last game (I didn't count). So far this year the Gophers take stupid shots, make dumb turnovers, foul too much and at stupid times, miss tons of free throws, and give up easy buckets with defensive lapses including but not limited to not getting back in transition. I'm absolutely terrified for the rest of this year.
6. The Gophers kept going to a pretty simple play, and it kept resulting in 3 points. It's nothing special, really, but they used it several times and Hollins got two three-pointers out of it and King got one. Shooter guy starts on one wing and just sprints to the opposite corner or wing, rubbing off a back pick on the near wing and a second pick on the opposite block. It's basically just two picks, but it worked early for the Gophers and they kept going back to it, rightly so since it worked several times. They also ran a modified version for Carlos Morris where instead of going to the corner or wing for a jumper he turned it into a curl cut where he's already moving towards the bucket when he receives the ball. Good modification. Good play.
7. Josh Martin is going to be a really good rebounder some day. His box score looks pretty brutal with just six minutes played and 1 rebound (to go with one missed shot, two turnovers, and two fouls) but I paid attention to Martin last night and I saw some promising things, mainly around rebounding. Offensive or defensive, he was always in good position and got his hand on 2-3 other rebounds that he couldn't corral because his positioning was perfect. He also got shoved almost all the way under the basket by some Wake guy on a free throw so we're still a little ways off, but he'll get there. I'm going to say one year in the future he'll average as many as EIGHT rebounds per game. You heard it here first.
8. Mo Walker, rim protector? Walker is never going to be confused for Antoine Broxsie or Jerome Holman when it comes to shot blocking, what with 37 career blocks coming into this season, but suddenly he's a different defender. The combination of the weight loss, recovery from injury, and the confidence he's gained after a successful season last year have him as active as I've ever seen defensively and it's paying off big time. I always considered Eliason the defensive presence and Walker the offensive banger, but this year Walker is averaging 1.6 blocks in 20 minutes per game, blocking 9.8% of the opponents shot attempts while he's on the floor. That's an incredible number that's doubled from last season and is almost 3 times higher than Eliason, and it ranks as the 42nd best percentage in DI (behind only A.J. Hammons, Alex Olah, and Michal Cekovsky in the B10). I didn't notice this until last night when he was challenging, and blocking, shots but man, what a huge development.
9. The Gophers look really good in transition, thanks to Mathieu. Boy is this team fun to watch in transition. I love when Mathieu just takes off and guys are sprinting to fill lanes. He's incredibly good at being able to observe the defenders at 100mph and know when to go to the rim, when to pull back, and my favorite is when he'll kind of drift towards the off ball defender, knowing a teammate is screaming up the opposite wing and he can hit him with either pass leading towards the rim or a kick out for an open three attempt. He struggles against teams who can challenge his quickness, but when he has it going like last night (8 assists) it's a thing of beauty. I still wish he'd look for his shot a bit more since he is a quality shooter but he's down a full 2 shot attempts per game this year. Don't worry, that's not a complaint. Love this guy.
10. So by my count the Big Ten now leads the challenge 6-2. That's good! They only need two more wins to win this thing which would be the sixth straight year of the Big Ten not losing after losing the first ten iterations of this thing. Normally I'm not one who cares about rooting for your conference and usually I hope any and all rivals face ruthless and humiliating defeats whenever possible, but in this case Big Ten wins help the Gophers. It bumps up any winning team's RPI, and by extension the whole conference's RPI, and if the B10 does well it helps the national perception of the teams which can only help in March when those nerds go into their sealed room and start talking about NCAA Tournament bids. So yeah, in general I root for the Big Ten in these games, except for Iowa and I hope a black hole opens up in Madison tonight and swallows Wisconsin, Duke, and all the fans of those teams in attendance into Bolivian. Who wouldn't want that?
So that's it for meaningful games until the conference slate opens on New Year's Eve at Purdue. Until then it's a bunch of garbage. Next up is Western Carolina on Wednesday, and other than Kevin Martin possibly showing up (it's his alma mater and the Wolves are in town, though they play the Rockets and I don't know the rules like if he has to be there when he's hurt or if he can go to the Gopher game) there's not a whole lot to be excited about. Really not the Martin thing either because meh.
Sunday, November 30, 2014
Gophers finished third in NIT Tip-Off! (out of 4).
First they were in total charge of the St. John's game, until they weren't, and ended up losing. Then they were in total charge of the Georgia game, until they weren't, but ended up winning. Overall the event did more to make me pessimistic about the rest of the season than optimistic, but that doesn't mean there weren't some positives. Up front I will tell you I watched the St. John's game at the bar which is a much less conducive environment to trying to make semi-interesting or fairly entertaining observations, so much of this will refer more to the Georgia game. It's doubtful it's semi-interesting or fairly entertaining anyway, as per usual. Anyway, here's ten things.
1. Free throws are killing me. I'm talking both sides of the ball here. After FT shooting nights of 9-16 against St. John's and 12-23 versus Georgia, the Gophers are now shooting a robust 55.2% for the season. That 55.2% ranks 343rd in the entire NCAA. There are 351 teams in Division I. UNLV is the only other major conference team anywhere near the Gophers in terms of being that horrible at free throws which, in case you'rs unsure, are completely unguarded shots by rule. There's more. The Gophers rank 318th in opponents FT attempts per FG attempt, which means they are constantly putting their opponents at the free throw line where they get to shoot without any defense. Usually this kind of profile belongs to an undersized, undermanned team and all the teams near the Gophers here are small schools or crappy teams like Oregon State and Boston College. The Gophers are giving up a ridiculous amount of free points while failing to take advantage of the same. Opponents are scoring 27% of their points at the line (rank #309), while the Gophers score 17% of their points from there (290th). This is a really good way to lose a lot of games you probably shouldn't, and is a major, major red flag. I'm pretty scared. Keep an eye on this one.
2. Nate Mason continues to impress. He led the team in scoring against the Red Storm with 15 and though he struggled shooting against Georgia he chipped in with 3 assists and 3 rebounds and has clearly emerged as the top player off the bench. Much of what he does is obvious when you watch him, but I want to point out something that might not stand out - he's an incredible rebounder. He's averaging 4.3 per game, and considering he's not playing starter's minutes it's even more impressive. His defensive rebounding rate is 20.8%, meaning he grabs one out of every five missed shots on the defensive end when he's on the court. That number ranks 216th in the country and I don't mean just for guards, I mean for everyone, and he's a 6-1 guard. He's probably going to average a triple double his senior year, if he's not already in the NBA.
3. Richard Pitino's beloved pressure defense is working. Mostly, at least, as the Gophers rank 31st in the country in defensive efficiency, giving up just .92 points per possession. They're mainly winning by causing turnovers, ranking 10th in the country and turning over their opponents 27.1% of the time, a ridiculous number that's just behind Rick Pitino and Louisville's 27.5%. The Gophers are also playing at the pace of 70.2 possessions per game (52nd in the country) which is identical to Louisville, so I think it's safe to say the system is pretty much in place. How well it ends up working against B10 competition is up in the air as it can lead to easy shots by the opponent as the Gophers rank just 127th in opponents' two point FG percentage, but as long as the turnovers keep coming you can handle a little trade off there. Georgia certainly did their part by giving the ball away 18 times, as did St. John's on Wednesday. It's a fun brand of basketball, and even more fun when they win.
4. Another thing that is fun so far is how well the Gophers are passing the basketball. With one glaring, notable exception (see below) the Gophers are moving the ball really well and it's fun to watch. Dre Mathieu is one of the best in the country at getting into the lane because he's so quick, and he's been exceptional this year at hitting open teammates when he does. Mason has mostly been a pass first kind of guy this year, Dre Hollins is an excellent passer when he wants to be, and both Joey King and Mo Walker are above average passers for big men. This has led to the Gophers registering an assist on 64.5% of their baskets this year, a number that ranks 21st in the nation and (somehow) 4th in the Big Ten behind Iowa, Purdue (?), and Michigan State. Of course, there's someone who is trying to destroy all that fun.
5. Pitino has got to reign in Carlos Morris. Last year writing about DeAndre Matheiu I said I like my guards a little bit out of control, and I do, but Morris is not a little bit out of control he's just straight up damaging when he's on the court. Poor defensive rotations, ball stopping, and bad shots are three of the most harmful things you can bring to a team and he's an expert at all three. His only good game this year was against Franklin Pierce, he's taking one shot attempt per point this year, and has as many turnovers as assists. It hasn't been good, though I'm not ready to give up because he has serious athletic potential, it just needs to be harnessed. There was one possession in the Georgia game where the team was moving the ball around the perimeter pretty well until it got to Morris at the top of the key. His defender was playing off him just enough to dare him shoot so Morris did, but not before holding the ball and just staring at the defensive dude for like 3 seconds, no joke. Naturally the result of the shot was an airball. The whole thing was a perfect encapsulation of his season so far. Let's hope we can look back on this as growing pains by year's end, because Morris is going to get a ton of minutes, and the less damage he can do the better.
6. Charles Buggs could be a solid contributor. I don't think there have ever been any questions about his shooting and he's shooting well again this season (5-10 on threes), but for Buggs to really crack the rotation he needed to work on other things. With the McNeil situation he's going to get a lot more rope, and he's going to get time at the 3 spot which, to me, is more his natural fit if he can play defense. So far this year he's looked better defensively, though not a standout by any means but he's not getting lost nearly as often. He's rebounding a little bit better, and most importantly he's slashed his turnovers from a horrendous 27% to an outstanding 10%. He's even grabbed a couple of steals (literally two) and gone to the line a handful of times. Buggs was pretty clearly a long term project from the moment he stepped on campus, but he's looked considerably better this year to the point where he might be able to give them 10-15 minutes per game which is going to be badly needed now. What more could you ask for?
7. I actually really like Bob Knight as an announcer. Sure he gets stuck on certain ideas and won't let them go, such as shot fakes and not having Eliason or Walker set picks so far away from the basket, but I really like the coach's perspective he brings to being the color man. I know plenty of other announcers are former coaches, but they all seem to have at least shifted some towards "being entertaining" from "being informative" (with varying degrees of success) but Knight is still in coach/educator mode. He's always pointing out positioning on defense or rebounding or discussing plays more in depth than your average guy, and he does it in a deadpan voice that pretty much tells you he's not interested in being your trained monkey there for entertainment. I also like how he kept referring to Walker and Eliason as "the big kids." I don't know. I dig it.
8. Dre Hollins has turned into a turnover machine. And I don't like it one bit. Twelve turnovers in the two tournament games bring his season total to 18 against 19 assists. His assist rate is actually up this year compared to last after plummeting from his sophomore season, which is to be expected with Mathieu on board and taking up most of the point guard minutes, but his turnover rate has absolutely sky rocketed to 27%, worse even than his wild freshman year. The only players in the conference who play major minutes with a worse turnover rate are ball handlers new to the league (Lourawls Nairn (34%), freshman), Tai Webster (30%, his second year), Bishop Daniels (28%, juco transfer)) or big men with questionable handles (A.J. Hammons (28%), Mo Walker (29%), Ross Travis (28%)). I mean, that's a really crappy number. Take that turnover number and add in 41% shooting from the floor and that's an awful lot of wasted possessions. He's in chucker territory. Please stop doing that.
9. I finally made sriracha fried rice and it was awesome. I've had it at a couple of Thai places and it's like, the best thing ever, so I finally decided to give it a shot and I'm damn glad I did. It's one of the most delicious things ever. It's great too, because for the veggies you can just use whatever you have. One time I had green pepper so I used it, another time (yes I made it twice this weekend) we were out of pepper so I used about a quarter bag of frozen peas and it worked out just fine. Here's the recipe. You're welcome.
2 c. cooked rice (I just used minute rice)
2 celery stalks, chopped or slivered
1 carrot, peeled and chopped or slivered
1/2 green pepper, diced
1/4 bag frozen peas
1/4 t dried ginger (if you have fresh it's probably better, I didn't)
1 t toasted sesame oil
2 T soy sauce
2 T sriracha
1-2 garlic cloves
some green onions, chopped with the white and green separated
1. Heat a skillet or wok on medium high until hot, pour in some olive oil and garlic and saute for 30 seconds
2. add the veggies except the green part of the green onion and saute for about 3 minutes
3. add the rice and ginger and saute about 3 minutes, rice should start to change color a little
4. add the soy sauce, sesame oil, and sriracha and mix until everything is combined
5. remove from heat and eat.
So good.
10. This Wake game is the last one that's going to matter for a while. I'm not really sure if Wake Forest is any good (tune in tomorrow) but it's the last threat to the Gophers for about a month, and the last game that will could potentially have any positive impact on the Gophers' future NCAA Tournament resume. The next six games after the Deacons are just brutal. The best teams according to kenpom are teams like Western Carolina, Seattle, and UNC-Wilmington who aren't even contenders in their own conferences and who rank in the mid-200s. The NCAA selection committee doesn't use kenpom at all (I don't think) but I'm pretty sure there's some sort of correlation when it comes to RPI and none of these clown shoes teams are going to help. One huge advantage Tubby's staff had over Pitino's is they had figured out how to make a schedule full of non-threatening games which still kept their SOS and RPI in good shape. i don't think this schedule is going to do that. Which means the Big 10 season is going to be even more important than in previous years, which terrifies me. Beat Wake.
1. Free throws are killing me. I'm talking both sides of the ball here. After FT shooting nights of 9-16 against St. John's and 12-23 versus Georgia, the Gophers are now shooting a robust 55.2% for the season. That 55.2% ranks 343rd in the entire NCAA. There are 351 teams in Division I. UNLV is the only other major conference team anywhere near the Gophers in terms of being that horrible at free throws which, in case you'rs unsure, are completely unguarded shots by rule. There's more. The Gophers rank 318th in opponents FT attempts per FG attempt, which means they are constantly putting their opponents at the free throw line where they get to shoot without any defense. Usually this kind of profile belongs to an undersized, undermanned team and all the teams near the Gophers here are small schools or crappy teams like Oregon State and Boston College. The Gophers are giving up a ridiculous amount of free points while failing to take advantage of the same. Opponents are scoring 27% of their points at the line (rank #309), while the Gophers score 17% of their points from there (290th). This is a really good way to lose a lot of games you probably shouldn't, and is a major, major red flag. I'm pretty scared. Keep an eye on this one.
2. Nate Mason continues to impress. He led the team in scoring against the Red Storm with 15 and though he struggled shooting against Georgia he chipped in with 3 assists and 3 rebounds and has clearly emerged as the top player off the bench. Much of what he does is obvious when you watch him, but I want to point out something that might not stand out - he's an incredible rebounder. He's averaging 4.3 per game, and considering he's not playing starter's minutes it's even more impressive. His defensive rebounding rate is 20.8%, meaning he grabs one out of every five missed shots on the defensive end when he's on the court. That number ranks 216th in the country and I don't mean just for guards, I mean for everyone, and he's a 6-1 guard. He's probably going to average a triple double his senior year, if he's not already in the NBA.
3. Richard Pitino's beloved pressure defense is working. Mostly, at least, as the Gophers rank 31st in the country in defensive efficiency, giving up just .92 points per possession. They're mainly winning by causing turnovers, ranking 10th in the country and turning over their opponents 27.1% of the time, a ridiculous number that's just behind Rick Pitino and Louisville's 27.5%. The Gophers are also playing at the pace of 70.2 possessions per game (52nd in the country) which is identical to Louisville, so I think it's safe to say the system is pretty much in place. How well it ends up working against B10 competition is up in the air as it can lead to easy shots by the opponent as the Gophers rank just 127th in opponents' two point FG percentage, but as long as the turnovers keep coming you can handle a little trade off there. Georgia certainly did their part by giving the ball away 18 times, as did St. John's on Wednesday. It's a fun brand of basketball, and even more fun when they win.
4. Another thing that is fun so far is how well the Gophers are passing the basketball. With one glaring, notable exception (see below) the Gophers are moving the ball really well and it's fun to watch. Dre Mathieu is one of the best in the country at getting into the lane because he's so quick, and he's been exceptional this year at hitting open teammates when he does. Mason has mostly been a pass first kind of guy this year, Dre Hollins is an excellent passer when he wants to be, and both Joey King and Mo Walker are above average passers for big men. This has led to the Gophers registering an assist on 64.5% of their baskets this year, a number that ranks 21st in the nation and (somehow) 4th in the Big Ten behind Iowa, Purdue (?), and Michigan State. Of course, there's someone who is trying to destroy all that fun.
5. Pitino has got to reign in Carlos Morris. Last year writing about DeAndre Matheiu I said I like my guards a little bit out of control, and I do, but Morris is not a little bit out of control he's just straight up damaging when he's on the court. Poor defensive rotations, ball stopping, and bad shots are three of the most harmful things you can bring to a team and he's an expert at all three. His only good game this year was against Franklin Pierce, he's taking one shot attempt per point this year, and has as many turnovers as assists. It hasn't been good, though I'm not ready to give up because he has serious athletic potential, it just needs to be harnessed. There was one possession in the Georgia game where the team was moving the ball around the perimeter pretty well until it got to Morris at the top of the key. His defender was playing off him just enough to dare him shoot so Morris did, but not before holding the ball and just staring at the defensive dude for like 3 seconds, no joke. Naturally the result of the shot was an airball. The whole thing was a perfect encapsulation of his season so far. Let's hope we can look back on this as growing pains by year's end, because Morris is going to get a ton of minutes, and the less damage he can do the better.
6. Charles Buggs could be a solid contributor. I don't think there have ever been any questions about his shooting and he's shooting well again this season (5-10 on threes), but for Buggs to really crack the rotation he needed to work on other things. With the McNeil situation he's going to get a lot more rope, and he's going to get time at the 3 spot which, to me, is more his natural fit if he can play defense. So far this year he's looked better defensively, though not a standout by any means but he's not getting lost nearly as often. He's rebounding a little bit better, and most importantly he's slashed his turnovers from a horrendous 27% to an outstanding 10%. He's even grabbed a couple of steals (literally two) and gone to the line a handful of times. Buggs was pretty clearly a long term project from the moment he stepped on campus, but he's looked considerably better this year to the point where he might be able to give them 10-15 minutes per game which is going to be badly needed now. What more could you ask for?
7. I actually really like Bob Knight as an announcer. Sure he gets stuck on certain ideas and won't let them go, such as shot fakes and not having Eliason or Walker set picks so far away from the basket, but I really like the coach's perspective he brings to being the color man. I know plenty of other announcers are former coaches, but they all seem to have at least shifted some towards "being entertaining" from "being informative" (with varying degrees of success) but Knight is still in coach/educator mode. He's always pointing out positioning on defense or rebounding or discussing plays more in depth than your average guy, and he does it in a deadpan voice that pretty much tells you he's not interested in being your trained monkey there for entertainment. I also like how he kept referring to Walker and Eliason as "the big kids." I don't know. I dig it.
8. Dre Hollins has turned into a turnover machine. And I don't like it one bit. Twelve turnovers in the two tournament games bring his season total to 18 against 19 assists. His assist rate is actually up this year compared to last after plummeting from his sophomore season, which is to be expected with Mathieu on board and taking up most of the point guard minutes, but his turnover rate has absolutely sky rocketed to 27%, worse even than his wild freshman year. The only players in the conference who play major minutes with a worse turnover rate are ball handlers new to the league (Lourawls Nairn (34%), freshman), Tai Webster (30%, his second year), Bishop Daniels (28%, juco transfer)) or big men with questionable handles (A.J. Hammons (28%), Mo Walker (29%), Ross Travis (28%)). I mean, that's a really crappy number. Take that turnover number and add in 41% shooting from the floor and that's an awful lot of wasted possessions. He's in chucker territory. Please stop doing that.
9. I finally made sriracha fried rice and it was awesome. I've had it at a couple of Thai places and it's like, the best thing ever, so I finally decided to give it a shot and I'm damn glad I did. It's one of the most delicious things ever. It's great too, because for the veggies you can just use whatever you have. One time I had green pepper so I used it, another time (yes I made it twice this weekend) we were out of pepper so I used about a quarter bag of frozen peas and it worked out just fine. Here's the recipe. You're welcome.
2 c. cooked rice (I just used minute rice)
2 celery stalks, chopped or slivered
1 carrot, peeled and chopped or slivered
1/2 green pepper, diced
1/4 bag frozen peas
1/4 t dried ginger (if you have fresh it's probably better, I didn't)
1 t toasted sesame oil
2 T soy sauce
2 T sriracha
1-2 garlic cloves
some green onions, chopped with the white and green separated
1. Heat a skillet or wok on medium high until hot, pour in some olive oil and garlic and saute for 30 seconds
2. add the veggies except the green part of the green onion and saute for about 3 minutes
3. add the rice and ginger and saute about 3 minutes, rice should start to change color a little
4. add the soy sauce, sesame oil, and sriracha and mix until everything is combined
5. remove from heat and eat.
So good.
10. This Wake game is the last one that's going to matter for a while. I'm not really sure if Wake Forest is any good (tune in tomorrow) but it's the last threat to the Gophers for about a month, and the last game that will could potentially have any positive impact on the Gophers' future NCAA Tournament resume. The next six games after the Deacons are just brutal. The best teams according to kenpom are teams like Western Carolina, Seattle, and UNC-Wilmington who aren't even contenders in their own conferences and who rank in the mid-200s. The NCAA selection committee doesn't use kenpom at all (I don't think) but I'm pretty sure there's some sort of correlation when it comes to RPI and none of these clown shoes teams are going to help. One huge advantage Tubby's staff had over Pitino's is they had figured out how to make a schedule full of non-threatening games which still kept their SOS and RPI in good shape. i don't think this schedule is going to do that. Which means the Big 10 season is going to be even more important than in previous years, which terrifies me. Beat Wake.
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