Welcome to the league, Maryland. Sorry all your players are leaving. Ok not all, and there's still talent here, but five of the team's eight top scorers transferred out - not graduated, but transferred which is pretty weird. They still retained scorers #1, #3, and #4 and bring in a nice recruiting class so they won't be at the bottom of the conference, but I don't really see them finishing in the upper division either.
The leading returnee is senior wing Dez Wells, who averaged 14.9 points per game last season. He's a pretty rare combo of both efficient (top 200ish true shooting percentage each of the last two seasons) and high usage (25% of possessions each of those seasons). Wells should be in line for post-season All Big 10 hardware, and will likely also cause the most "who the hell is this guy" reactions among the Williams Arena faithful. Among those who know, you may see a "no means no" sign or something similar considering he was booted from Xavier due to what look like false allegations, but visiting fans aren't much interested in truth so you know.
Along with Wells the Terps get a couple of long-range bombers back in wings Jake Layman (6-8) and Evan Smotrycz (6-9, and yes the same one who used to be at Michigan) who each hit more than 50 three pointers last year, both at a 37% clip. They should help ease the loss of those other five guys seeing as how they can supply both perimeter scoring and size/rebounding (5.0 and 6.0 per game last year). Neither is completely reliant on the three either, so they can help provide inside scoring as well. If you were going to keep just three guys off last year's Maryland squad, these would probably be your three best choices.
Which is good, because they're basically going to have to rely on freshmen beyond Wells, Layman, and Smotrycz. The key to the season may be point guard Romelo Trimble, ESPN's #29 incoming freshman this year, who, because of the defections, will basically be handed the ball and the starting job. He plays both guard spots but thrived after moving to point guard, even snagging a position as a McDonald's All-American. Fellow freshman Dion Wiley (#52) will provide depth and join Layman and Smotrycz as another light 'em up jump shooter.
Normally losing what Maryland lost would be recipe for disaster and obviously they'd be a better team if everybody stuck around, but Maryland has enough staying and enough incoming to at least challenge for an NCAA Tournament bid. Maryland hasn't been the Maryland of the past, not having made an NCAA Tournament since 2010 - not once in Mark Turgeon's three years. He's going to need to find a way to have this team take a step forward this season or he could find himself in trouble.
OTHER PREVIEWS
#10 INDIANA HOOSIERS
#11 PENN STATE NITTANY LIONS
#12 NORTHWESTERN WILDCATS
#13 PURDUE BOILERMAKERS
#14 RUTGERS SCARLET KNIGHTS
Showing posts with label Evan Smotrycz. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Evan Smotrycz. Show all posts
Monday, October 13, 2014
Thursday, December 29, 2011
Preview: Gophers vs. Wolverines
So we move on from the disappointments of the Illinois game and up next is another road game against a slightly worse opponent in the Michigan Wolverines. Yes, slightly worse. Because although Michigan is ranked higher than Illinois in the polls (16 vs. 27), kenpom has Illinois a little bit better (46 vs. 52) and Illinois is significantly better in the RPI (20 vs. 59). If you're like me and wondering why you haven't heard anything about Michigan even though they were supposed to be like so awesome its the same reason their RPI is so crappy - they haven't played anyone since December 3rd (wins over Oakland, Arkansas-Pine Bluff, Alabama A&M, and Bradley since then - all terrible teams). So, again, this makes them kind of hard to evaluate.
By now you know the basic drill with a John Beilein team - shoot a ton of threes coming from every single player/position on the court, a lot of ball movement, and mediocre man-to-man defense. This is year is no exception with one major wrinkle - the Wolverines, although still one of highest volume shooting three-point teams, have become extremely efficient on TWO pointers. This year they are hitting at 59.2% from two, tops in the nation. Notable in this is that all eight players who matter on this team hit at least 51% from two. So they got that going for them.
Despite their efficiency inside the arc, Michigan still lives and dies outside of it and as such their guards are the key and they have two really, really good (but not quite great) ones in Trey Burke and Tim Hardaway.
Burke, although just a freshman, is probably the best player on the team. He's their second leading scorer at 13 per game, leading assist guy with 5 per (ranks 3rd in b10), and chips in 3 boards and a steal per game. His turnovers are a little high at nearly 3 per game, but that's not out of line for a freshman point guard and his nearly 2-to-1 assist ratio is a nice number. He's an excellent penetrator (just like me, ask your mom), and can finish at the rim or kick-out to a teammate and is a solid shooter anywhere on the floor. I wouldn't have thought it possible but he's stepped in for the departed Darius Morris and Michigan hasn't missed a beat.
Although Burke might be their best player, Hardaway is almost certainly their most important simply because he dominates the ball as much as he does. So far this year he's done well, ranking in the top 500 in basically every advanced offensive metric other than the rebounding ones and he's mainly upped his effectiveness by shooting better from two (58% this year compared to 48% last year) and contributing more assists (2.9 vs. 1.7). He's still a terrible chucker overall (33% from three this year, 37% last year, and leads the team in three-point attempts) but he's masked that with his ability to get to the rim and the line this year. The Gophers would be wise to coax him into jacking up a ton of threes rather than having him gain confidence getting to the rim. You're taking a chance that he'll put up something like the 5-9 from 3 performance he put up against Oakland, but you're also better off betting that won't happen and keeping him away from the paint. He's a chucker, let him chuck and hope the percentages play themselves out the way they should.
Michigan has three other guys who can hurt you - Evan Smotrycz, Jordan Morgan, and Zack "8th year" Novak. Smotrycz is a 6-9 "power" forward who is third on the team in scoring (11.7) and leads in rebounds (6.7) despite being a perimeter playing nancy boy forward who spends more time outside the 3-point line than Ralph Sampson. He's been on fire lately, averaging over 18 a game over his last four, but he's done it by being unconscious from deep (15-19 in those four games, not a misprint). Obviously there's no way he can keep that up, but considering he gets most of his points from three the Gophers would do well to be sure his crazy shooting streak stops.
The other two, Morgan and Novak, are both technically forwards but couldn't be more different. Morgan is the model of efficiency, hitting 71% of his shots by never shooting anything other than a dunk or lay-up, and is big (6-8) and strong (240 lbs.). He also has a tendency to disappear in games and losing playing time in some games due to lack of effort. That's not an issue with Novak, who is under-sized, under-athletic, and under-talented but makes up for it with Eckstein-ien hustle and grit and an occasionally deft outside shot (which is the majority of his offensive game). He also manages to grab about five boards per game despite being just 6-4, which goes back to that whole constant effort thing. Since Novak hit six threes his freshman year against the Gophers they've done a pretty good job of holding him down, but I can't get that six three game out of my head. So yeah, I'm scared of a 6-4, floppy haired, mediocre athlete. But in my defense, he is left-handed.
So I guess I really don't know here. The Gophers are clearly better than I thought, especially against decent squads, based on my predicted massacres at the hands of Va Tech and Illinois which clearly didn't materialize. I don't know, with Ralph playing well (and in the paint) and with Julian Welch's influence clearly affecting this team they look really, really good. They can absolutely win this game, and I am very close to predicting them to do so. The only thing holding me back is that Michigan shoots so many threes and the Gophers are so completely terrible at defending them. I think that will bite them in the ass, and another winnable road game goes by the wayside.
Michigan 63, Minnesota 60.
By now you know the basic drill with a John Beilein team - shoot a ton of threes coming from every single player/position on the court, a lot of ball movement, and mediocre man-to-man defense. This is year is no exception with one major wrinkle - the Wolverines, although still one of highest volume shooting three-point teams, have become extremely efficient on TWO pointers. This year they are hitting at 59.2% from two, tops in the nation. Notable in this is that all eight players who matter on this team hit at least 51% from two. So they got that going for them.
Despite their efficiency inside the arc, Michigan still lives and dies outside of it and as such their guards are the key and they have two really, really good (but not quite great) ones in Trey Burke and Tim Hardaway.
Burke, although just a freshman, is probably the best player on the team. He's their second leading scorer at 13 per game, leading assist guy with 5 per (ranks 3rd in b10), and chips in 3 boards and a steal per game. His turnovers are a little high at nearly 3 per game, but that's not out of line for a freshman point guard and his nearly 2-to-1 assist ratio is a nice number. He's an excellent penetrator (just like me, ask your mom), and can finish at the rim or kick-out to a teammate and is a solid shooter anywhere on the floor. I wouldn't have thought it possible but he's stepped in for the departed Darius Morris and Michigan hasn't missed a beat.
Although Burke might be their best player, Hardaway is almost certainly their most important simply because he dominates the ball as much as he does. So far this year he's done well, ranking in the top 500 in basically every advanced offensive metric other than the rebounding ones and he's mainly upped his effectiveness by shooting better from two (58% this year compared to 48% last year) and contributing more assists (2.9 vs. 1.7). He's still a terrible chucker overall (33% from three this year, 37% last year, and leads the team in three-point attempts) but he's masked that with his ability to get to the rim and the line this year. The Gophers would be wise to coax him into jacking up a ton of threes rather than having him gain confidence getting to the rim. You're taking a chance that he'll put up something like the 5-9 from 3 performance he put up against Oakland, but you're also better off betting that won't happen and keeping him away from the paint. He's a chucker, let him chuck and hope the percentages play themselves out the way they should.
Michigan has three other guys who can hurt you - Evan Smotrycz, Jordan Morgan, and Zack "8th year" Novak. Smotrycz is a 6-9 "power" forward who is third on the team in scoring (11.7) and leads in rebounds (6.7) despite being a perimeter playing nancy boy forward who spends more time outside the 3-point line than Ralph Sampson. He's been on fire lately, averaging over 18 a game over his last four, but he's done it by being unconscious from deep (15-19 in those four games, not a misprint). Obviously there's no way he can keep that up, but considering he gets most of his points from three the Gophers would do well to be sure his crazy shooting streak stops.
The other two, Morgan and Novak, are both technically forwards but couldn't be more different. Morgan is the model of efficiency, hitting 71% of his shots by never shooting anything other than a dunk or lay-up, and is big (6-8) and strong (240 lbs.). He also has a tendency to disappear in games and losing playing time in some games due to lack of effort. That's not an issue with Novak, who is under-sized, under-athletic, and under-talented but makes up for it with Eckstein-ien hustle and grit and an occasionally deft outside shot (which is the majority of his offensive game). He also manages to grab about five boards per game despite being just 6-4, which goes back to that whole constant effort thing. Since Novak hit six threes his freshman year against the Gophers they've done a pretty good job of holding him down, but I can't get that six three game out of my head. So yeah, I'm scared of a 6-4, floppy haired, mediocre athlete. But in my defense, he is left-handed.
So I guess I really don't know here. The Gophers are clearly better than I thought, especially against decent squads, based on my predicted massacres at the hands of Va Tech and Illinois which clearly didn't materialize. I don't know, with Ralph playing well (and in the paint) and with Julian Welch's influence clearly affecting this team they look really, really good. They can absolutely win this game, and I am very close to predicting them to do so. The only thing holding me back is that Michigan shoots so many threes and the Gophers are so completely terrible at defending them. I think that will bite them in the ass, and another winnable road game goes by the wayside.
Michigan 63, Minnesota 60.
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