Four more conference tournaments wrapped up last night with North Dakota State taking the Summit (called it!), Robert Morris the NEC (called it!), Valpo the Horizon, and Gonzaga the West Coast (called it!). Gonzaga is obviously good and will be a 1 or 2 seed depending on how some other tournaments shake out, but I don't really see any way any of the other three win a first round game. Maybe Valpo if they get a team that doesn't shoot well. North Carolina would be fun.
Anyway, there are one million tournaments kicking off today so no need for preamble. God knows there'll be enough words for you to read.
ATLANTIC 10:
When did the A-10 become all competitive and deep and fun? This conference has five 20+ game winners already, three more teams with at 17 wins, and eight of fourteen teams finished with a winning record in conference play. They also have four Top 50 teams in kenpom's rankings, and two more in the top 75 with a few more just outside the Top 100. This tournament is going to be wild.
FAVORITE: Davidson. The Wildcats stormed to the #1 seed by winning their final 9 games with four of those wins coming over fellow contenders. Davidson has one of the most fun offenses in the country, playing fast but taking care of the ball, whipping it around the perimeter and draining threes. The register a ton of assists (61% of baskets, ranks 28th), get forty percent of their points from three (ranks 5th), and score 1.9 points per possession (6th in country). All this while playing fast. Super, super fun team.
SLEEPER: VCU. There's no mistaking it - when Briante Weber went down with a knee injury VCU's season derailed. They lost that game and then went 5-5 the rest of the way without any kind of good win. However this is a really talented team with an extremely good coach. Weber was a huge key on both sides of the ball for the Rams, obviously, but would it really surprise you to see Shaka Smart figure something out and go on a run?
THE PICK: Dayton. I can't shake the memory of that run Dayton went on in the NCAAs last year. Yes, each year is different so this isn't the exact same team, but Jordan Sibert and Dyshawn Pierre are both back and looking at their season long results (23-7) they only have one bad loss. Dayton also pretty much shuts down the 3-point line so if it comes down to a Davidson vs. Dayton match-up the Flyers should be able to hang. Though Davidson did beat them by 17 earlier while hitting 12-23 threes. Well, too late to change the pick now.
BIG EAST:
Everyone loves to complain about how the old Big East is no more, and with good reason because those old tournaments were awesome (stupid football). But the new Big East is pretty good. Creighton was a great story last year, and this year Villanova would be getting all kind of attention if it wasn't for Kentucky. The Wildcats (Nova version) have won 12 in row, are 29-2 overall, have played one bad game all year, and have six guys who average between nine and fourteen points per game. Georgetown, Butler, Xavier, Providence, and St. John's are all really good too. You can take away the football schools, but the Big East is still a hell of a basketball conference.
FAVORITE: Villanova. I guess I kind of wrote them up above, but this is a really good team. In that 12 game winning streak to close the season they beat Georgetown, Butler, and St. John's while sweeping Creighton and Providence. That's not beating up on the dregs of the conference, that's just whooping up everybody.
SLEEPER: Providence. This team should be better than it has been, and it's been pretty good (21-10, 11-7). LaDontae Henton is a 20 point per game scorer, and Kris Dunn has triple double potential every time out (15.5 points, 5.6 rebs, 7.4 assists per game). For whatever reason they just lose to every really good team they play. Maybe that's who they are and they're actually just a slightly above average team. Maybe they just need something to spark.
THE PICK: Villanova. Not really sure what else to write here. These guys are really good. They shoot the ball well from everywhere, they take care of the basketball, they get to the free throw line a lot, and they're one of the top assist teams in the country. They also play very good defense, create turnovers, don't foul, and have size and experience. The only real weakness is they aren't a great rebounding team and maybe that bites them in the NCAA Tournament at some point, and Butler could be a bit of a problem but they won't face them until the championship, if they get there. This team's really good.
BIG TEN:
Hey, you've probably heard of these guys. It's kind of a weird year in the Big Ten, because I only really see one Final Four contender. Plenty of Sweet 16 type teams, but other than the stupid Badgers I don't see anyone else advancing past early in the second week at best. Maryland doesn't seem good enough to be a 3 seed from what I've seen, Michigan State certainly has the talent and the Izzo to possibly do that thing Tom Izzo always does, and De'Angelo Russell is good enough to carry the team John Wallace style, but in general I think the Sweet 16 is the ceiling for most of these teams.
FAVORITE: Wisconsin. Like I said, the Badgers are pretty prohibitive favorite here. The won the conference by two games, and by 4+ over everyone except Maryland. This year's version of the Badgers is basically the same as always - play slow, take care of the ball, shoot well and immediately get back on defense to limit transition opportunities, play good defense without taking any chances, allow few offensive rebounds and don't foul (comes with no chances, also no turnovers). This year's version is the most perfect version Bo Ryan has put together, that offensive is the #1 in the country in points per possession, and they have a legitimate star in Frank Kaminsky. As an added wrinkle they actually have some athletic ability with both Sam Dekker and Nigel Hayes, and Bronson Koenig has stepped in for Traveon Jackson with no issue - and Jackson might be back. Yuck.
SLEEPER: Minnesota. Homer alert, yes I know, but hear me out. The Gophers possess a couple of the main characteristics I've outlined in all these previews for a potential sleeper: they have a trait different from most of the rest of the conference (they're the fastest team in the B10), and they have a skill that, if everything breaks right, can win a game all on it's own in their ability to force turnovers (they rank 8th). They've also been right there in almost every game they've lost - the only games that were basically over prior to the endgame were @Maryland, @Indiana, and the two Wisconsin games. I know watching this team all year has you rolling your eyes and shaking your head and I'm with you, but they profile as a sleeper and they wouldn't have to face Wisconsin until a potential final. Stranger things have happened. Probably.
THE PICK: Michigan State. Though Wisconsin is the best team, they also seem to usually take the Big Ten Tournament off having one just once since 2008, and the Spartans seem the best bet to step in and win. The Spartans have that incredible trio of Dawson, Trice, and Valentine and Izzo seems to have the team peaking at the end of the year, as per usual. Sparty closed out 8-3, and even though one of those losses was against the Gophers, I'll give them a pass.
BIG 12:
Everyone says this is the best conference this year, kenpom has them well clear of everyone else, and maybe they're right. Kansas, Oklahoma, Baylor, and Iowa State all have a chance at the Final Four, and I guess you can't forget about West Virginia. You can, however, forget about Oklahoma State if you want. They've completely faded, losing five of their last six. ESPN still has them in as an 11 seed, but unless something changes they have no chance at upsetting anyone.
FAVORITE: Kansas. The Jayhawks are the most confusing team to me this year. At times, I've thought I'd probably pick them to make the Final Four. At other times, they look like a first round upset candidate. At their best they're a hyper athletic bunch with an inside presence, good perimeter shooting, and a bunch of guys who can defend all over the court. At others, they look lost, struggle in the half court offense, and get crushed on the boards. This is why you have a team who can go 13-5 in the best conference in basketball who also got absolutely crushed by Temple. I'm clueless.
SLEEPER: West Virginia. When I think of teams jumping up and doing unexpected things I usually figure they're a team with a star who can carry the team (Juwan Staten?), a team who does one thing so exceptionally well they can swing a game just on that alone (WVU #1 in forcing turnovers in the country), and a team who plays a pace, either slow or fast, that can make other teams uncomfortable (26th fastest team). WVU checks those boxes. Their actual shooting and defense are pretty suspect so It'd probably have to be pretty fluky, but they could do it.
THE PICK: Oklahoma. Some teams just seem built for a tournament type run, call it the eye test or what have you, but for me both Oklahoma and Iowa State seem like those kind of teams to me. They're both very athletic, fast teams who play a hectic pace, while Iowa State excels on offense and Oklahoma on defense. I'm giving the nod to the Sooners because they're a better offensive team than Iowa State is defensive, and Oklahoma's star, Buddy Hield, seems to be trending up while Iowa State's, Georges Niang, is trending down.
CONFERENCE USA:
This is another conference that got rocked by realignment, losing Louisville, Memphis, Cincinnati, and Marquette (among others) over the last ten years - basically every one of their flagship programs. Louisiana Tech has been on the fringe of an at large bid the last couple of years and Old Dominion is near the bubble this year, but I don't think C-USA has been a multi-bid conference in a while. They're still a young conference, so maybe they'll grow into the MVC someday, but they're closer to a low major than a mid major right now.
FAVORITE: Louisiana Tech. This is the third straight year the Bulldogs have won a regular season title - the last two in C-USA and the prior season in the WAC. Yet they haven't been to the NCAA Tournament since 1991 because they've bombed out in the conference tournament every year. Coach Michael White (sounds made up) has established his system in Louisiana, and every year the Bulldogs play fast, play good defense, and create a ton of turnovers while limiting their own. It's worked in the regular season, but like Billy Beane so far his shit doesn't work in the playoffs. Hopefully this is finally the year.
SLEEPER: Western Kentucky. They've won the conference tournament two of the last three years, and won five times in the 2000s in the Sun Belt so they know what they're doing at the end of the year. WKU seems to jump up and become an NCAA Tournament sleeper every few years, led by a star like Courtney Lee, Orlando Mendez-Valdez, or A.J. Slaughter. They certainly have another candidate this year in senior guard T.J. Price, who led the conference in scoring at 17.6 points per game while hitting 42% of his threes. He could certainly carry this team, and he's got three other double digit scorers to help out. Of course, it's hard to believe a team that lost to the Gophers could go on to have any success.
THE PICK: UTEP. I liked UTEP to start the year, and although they haven't done anything to make me say hey wow look at UTEP, they haven't bombed out either. 13-5 in conference play with the #2 offense and #3 defense in CUSA, they're a definite contender, and an early nonconference win over Xavier is better than anything else anyone in the conference can point to. The Miners did get swept by La Tech, but they won't have to face them unless they both make the final, and Tech is flawed enough they might not make it. UTEP can handle anyone else.
MOUNTAIN WEST:
Well it was a run Mountain West Conference. After ranking as a Top 10 Conference by kenpom from 2002-2014, the Mountain West dropped to 12th this year. That might not seem like a big deal, but another way to look at it is after easily putting multiple teams in the tournament year after year, the MWC might be a one bid league this year.
FAVORITE: San Diego State. The only MWC team guaranteed of a bid this year, the Aztecs have a little bit of a dynasty going on here under Steve Fisher with four regular season titles in the last five seasons, though they've only won one conference tournament in that time. This year will also mark their sixth straight NCAA Tournament appearance, with the Aztecs advancing past the first round three times, including a Sweet 16 appearance last season. It's the same team as every other year, although this year might be Fisher's most extreme - it's his best offense and his worst defense in this run of success. Eventually you gotta score. Unlike you in high school.
SLEEPER: Wyoming. Everything started out great for the Cowboys. They came out of the gate at 15-2, including a 4-0 conference start which included wins over Colorado, Colorado State, and Boise State. Then an understandable loss to San Diego State, and two overtime wins and they were 17-3 and 6-1 and dreams of an NCAA bid, their first since 2002, appeared. And then the bottom fell. The Cowboys won just 5 the rest of the way against six losses and the at large dream disappeared. They did lose leading scorer and rebounder Larry Nance Jr. for four games to injury but he's back now, and although Wyoming has gone just 1-3 since his return if they can refind that early season form they could make a run.
THE PICK: Boise State. Similar to Wyoming, Boise State started out well at 10-2 with losses to just Wisconsin and NC State. Similar to Wyoming, they dealt with an injury to last season's leading scorer Anthony Drmic, only he was out for the season. They had a mid-season hiccup, a four game losing streak that killed any at large chances, but since then they've been on fire, going 14-1 to close out the season. The Broncos' second leading scorer last year, Derrick Marks, has completely put this team on his back, averaging over 20 points per game over this stretch, hitting 30 points three times. Oh yeah, they also swept SDSU. So there's that.
PAC 12:
Talk about a top heavy league. Arizona and Utah are top 8 teams per kenpom, then next up is Stanford at #44 (though they seem to be tanking with a 2-5 close to the season). The Wildcats and Utes are both Top 25 in the country in both offensive and defensive efficiency, and the only other team to reach Top 25 in either is Oregon State on defense. Unfortunately, in my opinion, both those teams are super vulnerable. Could be another bad year for the Pac 12. Or Arizona could win the title. What am I, Nostradamus?
FAVORITE: Arizona. So Arizona is 28-3 with a Top 11 mark in both O and D efficiency, so what's my problem? I just haven't been impressed. Nobody on the team seems to be a reliable bet to show up all the time. Just look at their losses this year: UNLV, Oregon State, and Arizona State. Now way around it, those are all three bad losses. Their top end play is as good as it gets with sweeps of Utah, Stanford, and Oregon with non-conference wins over Gonzaga and San Diego State, but how to explain those losses?
SLEEPER: Oregon. Tough to find a sleeper in such a top heavy conference with so many horrible teams at the bottom, but the Ducks stand out. The closed the season 11-2 and mixed a win over Utah in there. They had a shaky start to the season but looking back other than a disastrous trip out to Washington where they got swept their worst loss is to Michigan, so they've mainly taken care of business against bad teams. Joseph Young is the type who can carry a team to a conference title on his own, and if he can't he'll certainly shoot enough to try.
THE PICK: Arizona. I can also completely see them flaming out in their first game, but who else am I going to pick? I should probably trust Utah more than I do looking at their profile and advanced stats, but they just seem to be missing something. Stanford is terrible now, and Oregon just has too many flaws. UCLA is the only other team under consideration, but they've mostly spent the year beating bad and average teams and losing to good ones. Then again, I suppose they need these games more than anyone else so maybe they'll win. I don't know.
SOUTHEASTERN CONFERENCE:
There was a time, and I think it was true, where John Calipari was a pretty terrible coach. He won because he could recruit, but to call him a great coach was a pretty big stretch. When he won his first national title with that Kentucky team I thought "Man he's lucky. All the best talent and they're all unselfish too. He's lucky Anthony Davis and Michael Kidd-Gilchrist don't care about getting the ball." Now, however, he's done it again with an even more talented group. It's clear he's got a skill here. You can boil down a coach to three basic pieces: recruiting, roster management (including player development), and game planning. Calipari has aced two of the three, and is probably average at the third. Hard to argue he shouldn't be called a great coach at this point.
FAVORITE: Kentucky. Duh. Besides the undefeated record, Kentucky finished #1 in both offensive and defensive efficiency in SEC play, and #1 and #8 in DE and OE in the entire country for the season. Kenpom's top 5 players in the conference is made up of 4 Kentucky guys. Yeah, they got pushed to OT by inferior foes in Ole Miss and Texas A&M, but that was back in early January. Since then they've only had five of sixteen games end with a margin in single digits. They're the most talented team in the country and they're peaking. Great.
SLEEPER: Florida. Simply because it's hard for me to believe a Billy Donovan led Gator team could be this bad. I mean their final record was 15-16, which means they aren't even eligible for the NIT. Bizarre. They can still play defense, just .907 points per possession, which ranks 9th in the country this year, and most of their losses have been extremely close so they're not too far from turning it around - only Kentucky has beaten them by double figures since mid-January. A lot of bad luck for this team, maybe things tip here.
THE PICK: Kentucky. Duh. Again. It's going to take some extraordinary circumstances for Kentucky to lose this year. The most interesting game for them will be in round 2, where they will probably face the best team they've played since Arkansas over a month ago. The eight or nine seed will be someone along the lines of North Carolina State or Ohio State, and they'd be a second or third place team in the SEC. I'm interested to see Kentucky against some top competition again, but I can't fathom not picking them to not only win the SEC Tournament, but the NCAA Tournament as well.
SOUTHLAND:
The Southland is not dissimilar to the Ohio Valley - there's a great team here, one that dominated the conference, in this case going 17-1. A team that rates well at kenpom at #43 (Murray State is #77), and a team that has no chance at an at-large bid because of the weak conference competition and a bad non-conference schedule (though they do have a win over Memphis and an overtime loss to Northern Iowa). Yes, Stephen F. Austin is essentially Murray State all over again - they can win a game or two in the NCAA Tournament, but they have no margin for error to get there.
FAVORITE: Stephen F Austin. The Lumberjacks are back again, once again dominating the Southland by playing pressing like crazy (#4 in creating turnovers this year), and passing (#4 in assist percentage) and shooting the ball well (#10 in eFG). Last year they finished the regular season 29-2 and 18-0 in conference, won the conference tournament, and went on to beat VCU in an overtime thriller in round 1. Hopefully they can get through again, because this could legitimately be a Sweet 16 team. No lie.
SLEEPER: Northwestern State. Even though SFA swept Northwestern State this season, the Demons game looks like it could give the Lumberjacks fits. They're the fastest team in the conference so SFA's pace won't throw them (though the majority of the conference is pretty fast anyway), they don't turn the ball over at all, so that could cut Austin's advantage down, and they're a super efficient scoring team so they could score enough points to keep up with the Lumberjacks. Now, their defense is horrible so they'll have to score a ton to keep up with what SFA will put up, but still I'd rather see Northwestern State knocked off before they get a shot at Austin in the semifinals.
THE PICK: Stephen F Austin. We've already lost two potential giant killers in Iona and Murray State, please don't take our Lumberjacks away from us as well. With two of their big scorers back from last year's team we need these guys back in the tournament - they're fun as hell.
SWAC:
Pretty much always the bottom ranked conference at kenpom year after year and usually with some teams not eligible for the post season because of ARP issues, this year the SWAC is the bottom ranked conference at kenpom and is dealing with some teams not being eligible for the postseason due to ARP issues. There are 10 teams in this mess of a conference, and four of them - Southern, Arkansas Pine Bluff, Mississippi Valley State, and Grambling - are ineligible for post season play. They all get to participate in the SWAC Tournament, though Southern, the second place team in the league, is the only one with much of a chance to win. And then send the loser of the championship to the NCAAs. Unless they're ineligible too. Then I don't know what happens. Just disband the SWAC already.
FAVORITE: Texas Southern. Last season the Tigers rode LaSalle and WVU transfer Aaric Murray and a few other transfers to a SWAC Ttile and a berth in the First Four (lost to Cal Poly). This year, the returning Madarious Gibbs is joined by a handful of transfers, and despite a whole lot of roster turnover they're in position to make it back to the First Four. Don't forget, Texas Southern hasn't just beaten up on their conference foes - they have wins this year over Michigan State and Kansas State. I'm not sure how though. They're terrible at everything.
SLEEPER: Alabama State. The Hornets were #2 in both offensive and defensive efficiency in SWAC play this year, while Texas Southern was #1 in offensive but #5 in defensive. They did get swept by Texas Southern this year, but they pretty much handled everyone else.
THE PICK: Texas Southern. Their stat sheet looks horrible, but they have those wins over Michigan State and Kansas State and they did win the regular season crown. Anything can happen with teams that are this bad, so sticking with the chalk makes sense. Or just throw a dart, but make sure it doesn't hit an ineligible team.
Whew. That was a lot. I'm tired.
Showing posts with label C-USA. Show all posts
Showing posts with label C-USA. Show all posts
Wednesday, March 11, 2015
Tuesday, March 12, 2013
Even More Tournament Information
Congrats go out to Long Island, South Dakota State, and Valpo for grabbing their league's autobids last night. Absolutely nothing else of significance happened. I, for one, can't wait to hear way too many stories about Nate Wolters as we wait for the real tournament to get going. Here's what's kicking off Wednesday.
PAC-12 CONFERENCE
Welcome back, Pac-12. After several years of crappy play and getting just 1-2 teams in the tournament, the Pac will likely have five teams receive bids this year. The teams are still mostly terrible, with the exception of UCLA who is talented but mind-boggling, and I am going to definitely take the UNDER on Pac-12 wins once the brackets are revealed and the lines come out, but it's at least a step back towards respectability.
FAVORITE: UCLA. Despite a rough start to the season that included an OT win versus UC-Irvine and a loss to Cal Poly the Bruins figured it out and won seven of their final nine games to take the conference regular season title. Good thing too, because they're easily the most talented team. Shabazz Muhammad is legitimately good enough to pull a Carmelo and take UCLA to the Final Four. The real problem is that Larry Drew is erratic enough to lead them to a first round loss.
SLEEPER: Washington. Tough to find a sleeper in a league this tightly bunched, but I'll go with Washington. Lorenzo Romar seems to get the Huskies to play well in March, and you can't go wrong rooting for circus ball.
W's PICK: Cal. They're annoying because they have Justin Cobbs, but they're also an NCAA Tournament team and one of few from the Pac-12 who I think might be able to make the Sweet 16 because of him. Cobbs and Allen Crabbe give the Bears two big-time scorers and assist guys and guards are gold when it comes to March basketball. They're ramping up as well, having won seven of their last eight heading to the tournament including wins over all four of the other NCAA bound Pac teams.
SOUTHEASTERN CONFERENCE
And as we speak about moving towards respectability we must also look at the other side of Two-Face and look at moving away from respectability and that's what's happened to the SEC. Outside of Florida these teams are awful. Missouri is the only other team who is solidly in the tournament last year and they've been horrendous and lost to a 15 seed last year and will probably be an early out again. Kentucky is down this year despite being talented because they aren't talented enough to overcome Calipari's inability to coach during a game and other than a rare decent year from Ole Miss every other program is in a major downward arc, with Mississippi State quite possibly the worst major conference team in history. I'm not kidding. They lost to Vanderbilt by 41. At home. Dontae Jones is rolling over in his grave.
FAVORITE: Florida. The Gators might be the heaviest favorite in any conference and that includes the smaller ones (maybe Davidson). Currently the #1 team on kenpom with a top 5 in both offensive and defensive efficiency, and enough depth and balance to survive a rough night from any of their players. That being said, it's a bit concerning that Florida is 0-5 in games with a final margin in the single digits this year, so if "not knowing how to win the close ones" is a real thing they could be in trouble. Then again, they have 24 wins this year and every single one was by at least 11 points so maybe it doesn't really matter.
SLEEPER: Arkansas. The Razorbacks should have been better than 10-8 in a down SEC, and they showed how good they can be when they basically ran Florida out of the gym in Fayetteville. They struggled this year with "can't win away from home"-itis, but at home they beat not only Florida but also Kentucky, Missouri, Tennessee, and Oklahoma - basically as the home team they were probably the second best team in the SEC. Unfortunately for them, the SEC Tournament isn't played in Arkansas so they're probably in trouble.
W's PICK: Ole Miss. The Rebels were looking good earlier this year at 17-2 and 6-0 in SEC play, but have limped down the stretch with a 5-6 finish that included ugly losses to South Carolina and Mississippi State that, along with a horrid non-conference schedule lacking any big wins, have them in rough shape to make the tournament. They benefit because Florida will gain very little with a win out and Billy Donovan knows it, where the Rebels need this more an anyone other than Tennessee.
SOUTHWESTERN ATHLETIC CONFERENCE
College basketball is crazy year after year, but if there's one thing you can always count on it's the SWAC being terrible. In the last 10 years they've ranked as the worst conference eight times (kenpom) and second to last the other two. Looking at their schools I can't remember a single one of them being remotely relevant in the NCAA Tournament - ever. This year Grambling went 0-27 and ranked dead last in both offensive and defensive efficiency, which I'm pretty sure means they're the worst team of all-time. Using kenpom's metrics, he would predict that Penn State would beat Grambling 82-48, the Gophers would win 92-44, and Florida (#1 team) would win 96-39. Hell, the second worst team in the country (New Orleans) would have a projected victory of 72-57. This is a stunningly bad team. It's almost admirable.
FAVORITE: Southern. They finished in second place behind Texas Southern, but Texas Southern is ineligible for the postseason because of NCAA violations. Additionally the team who tied with Southern for second, Arkansas-Pine Bluff, is ineligible for the post-season due to low APR scores as is Mississippi Valley State. So basically these schools all suck at basketball and at academics and cheating. Are we sure these are even colleges?
SLEEPER: Jackson State. Ok I lied when I said Florida or Davidson might be the heaviest favorite because it's clearly Southern. With the only other two teams on their level banned from tournament play there really is no dark horse because Southern should walk. They're ranked 163rd at kenpom and the next best eligible team is #312. I picked Jackson as my sleeper simply because they're the only other team who finished at .500 or better who will be playing in this thing.
W's PICK: Southern. It doesn't matter because they're going to get blown out by whomever they play (if they get through the First Four) but they should at least have fun destroying teams in getting there.
SOUTHLAND CONFERENCE
Similar to the SWAC the Southland is pretty terrible and is every year, but the difference is the Southland occasionally develops a respectable team (and will more often since Oral Roberts moved there this year for financial/geographic reasons). This is one of those years with Stephen F. Austin actually looking like a pretty decent squad (they beat Oklahoma and Long Beach). They will try to continue the Southland's first round tradition of kind of scaring teams but then fading away in the second half, although I still thank baby santa jesus for this moment, which I believe to be the most linked video on this blog:
FAVORITE: Stephen F. Austin. The Lumberjacks are actually an outstanding defensive team - as in the 6th best team in the country in defensive efficiency. And they're really well rounded on that side of the ball as well - the defend the two and the three well, don't allow offensive rebounds or commit many fouls and they cause a bunch of turnovers. Unfortunately their offense is brutal.
SLEEPER: Northwestern State. Not only are the Demons awesome because of what they did to Iowa, but they're also awesome because they not only score the most points of any team per game in the NCAA but they also play the fastest pace of any team in the NCAA. You know how fun it would be to watch them play somebody like North Carolina? God that would be fun.
W's PICK: Northwestern State. SFA would actually have a much better chance of scoring an upset with their super slow pace and tough defense, but seriously if I wanted to watch that kind of basketball I'd just move to Wisconsin. The Demons would at least be fun - mostly for the other team and their fans - but what can I say I'm a sucker for circus ball and NW State fits the bill. I'm kind of excited for them already, so they better not let me down or there'll be hell to pay. Hell.
CONFERENCE USA
It's Memphis and everybody else. Again. Memphis, who you might remember the Gophers actually beat, rolled through conference play on the way to a 16-0 record and have locked up their at-large bid. What this means, since this is Memphis and Josh Pastner, is that they'll likely lose focus and interest in the conference tournament and somebody else will have a chance to win it. The only question is if anybody is actually good enough to do so, even with the Tigers chasing butterflies or whatever.
FAVORITE: Memphis. When it comes to talent the Tigers are on a completely different level than everybody else. The only other team who can play there way to a possible at-large is Southern Miss and they finished four games behind Memphis in the standings and the lost to the Tigers by 13 and 16 in their two meetings. Maybe Memphis is the biggest favorite of anybody in any conference tournament. This stuff is hard.
SLEEPER: Houston. If I had to pick a non-Memphis or Southern Miss team to win this I'd go with UTEP, but Houston is a better "sleeper" since they're a middle of the pack squad who comes in a bit hot after winning their final three regular season games. Normally you'd say that's not a big deal since it's only three games, but for a team this young (top four scorers are all freshmen or sophomores) with some real talent (at least one Rivals Top 150 recruit has signed with the Cougars each of the last two years) this could be a sign of them coming together and figuring it out. Probably not, but maybe.
W's PICK: Memphis. Honestly there are only a couple teams Memphis will even to try to beat in this tournament, and none of them are very good and this thing is so wide open they might all lose early. Good thing Memphis is finally leaving that shitty conference because it's just getting worse and worse. Probably time to shut 'er down.
PAC-12 CONFERENCE
Welcome back, Pac-12. After several years of crappy play and getting just 1-2 teams in the tournament, the Pac will likely have five teams receive bids this year. The teams are still mostly terrible, with the exception of UCLA who is talented but mind-boggling, and I am going to definitely take the UNDER on Pac-12 wins once the brackets are revealed and the lines come out, but it's at least a step back towards respectability.
FAVORITE: UCLA. Despite a rough start to the season that included an OT win versus UC-Irvine and a loss to Cal Poly the Bruins figured it out and won seven of their final nine games to take the conference regular season title. Good thing too, because they're easily the most talented team. Shabazz Muhammad is legitimately good enough to pull a Carmelo and take UCLA to the Final Four. The real problem is that Larry Drew is erratic enough to lead them to a first round loss.
SLEEPER: Washington. Tough to find a sleeper in a league this tightly bunched, but I'll go with Washington. Lorenzo Romar seems to get the Huskies to play well in March, and you can't go wrong rooting for circus ball.
W's PICK: Cal. They're annoying because they have Justin Cobbs, but they're also an NCAA Tournament team and one of few from the Pac-12 who I think might be able to make the Sweet 16 because of him. Cobbs and Allen Crabbe give the Bears two big-time scorers and assist guys and guards are gold when it comes to March basketball. They're ramping up as well, having won seven of their last eight heading to the tournament including wins over all four of the other NCAA bound Pac teams.
SOUTHEASTERN CONFERENCE
And as we speak about moving towards respectability we must also look at the other side of Two-Face and look at moving away from respectability and that's what's happened to the SEC. Outside of Florida these teams are awful. Missouri is the only other team who is solidly in the tournament last year and they've been horrendous and lost to a 15 seed last year and will probably be an early out again. Kentucky is down this year despite being talented because they aren't talented enough to overcome Calipari's inability to coach during a game and other than a rare decent year from Ole Miss every other program is in a major downward arc, with Mississippi State quite possibly the worst major conference team in history. I'm not kidding. They lost to Vanderbilt by 41. At home. Dontae Jones is rolling over in his grave.
FAVORITE: Florida. The Gators might be the heaviest favorite in any conference and that includes the smaller ones (maybe Davidson). Currently the #1 team on kenpom with a top 5 in both offensive and defensive efficiency, and enough depth and balance to survive a rough night from any of their players. That being said, it's a bit concerning that Florida is 0-5 in games with a final margin in the single digits this year, so if "not knowing how to win the close ones" is a real thing they could be in trouble. Then again, they have 24 wins this year and every single one was by at least 11 points so maybe it doesn't really matter.
SLEEPER: Arkansas. The Razorbacks should have been better than 10-8 in a down SEC, and they showed how good they can be when they basically ran Florida out of the gym in Fayetteville. They struggled this year with "can't win away from home"-itis, but at home they beat not only Florida but also Kentucky, Missouri, Tennessee, and Oklahoma - basically as the home team they were probably the second best team in the SEC. Unfortunately for them, the SEC Tournament isn't played in Arkansas so they're probably in trouble.
W's PICK: Ole Miss. The Rebels were looking good earlier this year at 17-2 and 6-0 in SEC play, but have limped down the stretch with a 5-6 finish that included ugly losses to South Carolina and Mississippi State that, along with a horrid non-conference schedule lacking any big wins, have them in rough shape to make the tournament. They benefit because Florida will gain very little with a win out and Billy Donovan knows it, where the Rebels need this more an anyone other than Tennessee.
SOUTHWESTERN ATHLETIC CONFERENCE
College basketball is crazy year after year, but if there's one thing you can always count on it's the SWAC being terrible. In the last 10 years they've ranked as the worst conference eight times (kenpom) and second to last the other two. Looking at their schools I can't remember a single one of them being remotely relevant in the NCAA Tournament - ever. This year Grambling went 0-27 and ranked dead last in both offensive and defensive efficiency, which I'm pretty sure means they're the worst team of all-time. Using kenpom's metrics, he would predict that Penn State would beat Grambling 82-48, the Gophers would win 92-44, and Florida (#1 team) would win 96-39. Hell, the second worst team in the country (New Orleans) would have a projected victory of 72-57. This is a stunningly bad team. It's almost admirable.
FAVORITE: Southern. They finished in second place behind Texas Southern, but Texas Southern is ineligible for the postseason because of NCAA violations. Additionally the team who tied with Southern for second, Arkansas-Pine Bluff, is ineligible for the post-season due to low APR scores as is Mississippi Valley State. So basically these schools all suck at basketball and at academics and cheating. Are we sure these are even colleges?
SLEEPER: Jackson State. Ok I lied when I said Florida or Davidson might be the heaviest favorite because it's clearly Southern. With the only other two teams on their level banned from tournament play there really is no dark horse because Southern should walk. They're ranked 163rd at kenpom and the next best eligible team is #312. I picked Jackson as my sleeper simply because they're the only other team who finished at .500 or better who will be playing in this thing.
W's PICK: Southern. It doesn't matter because they're going to get blown out by whomever they play (if they get through the First Four) but they should at least have fun destroying teams in getting there.
SOUTHLAND CONFERENCE
Similar to the SWAC the Southland is pretty terrible and is every year, but the difference is the Southland occasionally develops a respectable team (and will more often since Oral Roberts moved there this year for financial/geographic reasons). This is one of those years with Stephen F. Austin actually looking like a pretty decent squad (they beat Oklahoma and Long Beach). They will try to continue the Southland's first round tradition of kind of scaring teams but then fading away in the second half, although I still thank baby santa jesus for this moment, which I believe to be the most linked video on this blog:
FAVORITE: Stephen F. Austin. The Lumberjacks are actually an outstanding defensive team - as in the 6th best team in the country in defensive efficiency. And they're really well rounded on that side of the ball as well - the defend the two and the three well, don't allow offensive rebounds or commit many fouls and they cause a bunch of turnovers. Unfortunately their offense is brutal.
SLEEPER: Northwestern State. Not only are the Demons awesome because of what they did to Iowa, but they're also awesome because they not only score the most points of any team per game in the NCAA but they also play the fastest pace of any team in the NCAA. You know how fun it would be to watch them play somebody like North Carolina? God that would be fun.
W's PICK: Northwestern State. SFA would actually have a much better chance of scoring an upset with their super slow pace and tough defense, but seriously if I wanted to watch that kind of basketball I'd just move to Wisconsin. The Demons would at least be fun - mostly for the other team and their fans - but what can I say I'm a sucker for circus ball and NW State fits the bill. I'm kind of excited for them already, so they better not let me down or there'll be hell to pay. Hell.
CONFERENCE USA
It's Memphis and everybody else. Again. Memphis, who you might remember the Gophers actually beat, rolled through conference play on the way to a 16-0 record and have locked up their at-large bid. What this means, since this is Memphis and Josh Pastner, is that they'll likely lose focus and interest in the conference tournament and somebody else will have a chance to win it. The only question is if anybody is actually good enough to do so, even with the Tigers chasing butterflies or whatever.
FAVORITE: Memphis. When it comes to talent the Tigers are on a completely different level than everybody else. The only other team who can play there way to a possible at-large is Southern Miss and they finished four games behind Memphis in the standings and the lost to the Tigers by 13 and 16 in their two meetings. Maybe Memphis is the biggest favorite of anybody in any conference tournament. This stuff is hard.
SLEEPER: Houston. If I had to pick a non-Memphis or Southern Miss team to win this I'd go with UTEP, but Houston is a better "sleeper" since they're a middle of the pack squad who comes in a bit hot after winning their final three regular season games. Normally you'd say that's not a big deal since it's only three games, but for a team this young (top four scorers are all freshmen or sophomores) with some real talent (at least one Rivals Top 150 recruit has signed with the Cougars each of the last two years) this could be a sign of them coming together and figuring it out. Probably not, but maybe.
W's PICK: Memphis. Honestly there are only a couple teams Memphis will even to try to beat in this tournament, and none of them are very good and this thing is so wide open they might all lose early. Good thing Memphis is finally leaving that shitty conference because it's just getting worse and worse. Probably time to shut 'er down.
Thursday, May 17, 2012
Six Very Important Things from Last Night - 5/17/2012
Maybe this will get me posting more often. Be careful what you wish for.
1. The Twins beat the Tigers today, which would be newsworthy all on its own, but even more shocking is that gives them two straight wins over the Tigers (just the second winning streak of the entire season) and since this was just a 2-game series that means the Twins just swept the preseason division favorite, even if they are two games under .500. Even more shocking is they did it with Blackburn and P.J. Walters (who?) pitching the two games. Blackburn sucked as expected and is now on the DL, but the Twins actually decided to hit for once with a couple of homers (Dozier & Plouffe) and six doubles, managing to score 11 runs which I have to assume is a season high, to pull out the win. Then today Mr. Walters goes all no-hittery through the first four innings en route to a very nice game, picking up his second major league win and lowering his career ERA to a shade under seven. Still, it's a two game win streak against a supposed good team. Just 14 more to go to get to .500. We can do this.
2. It was a shitty day in daytime baseball if you were an ace-type pitcher or took the under on total runs scored today. Mat Latos got knocked around by the Mets and only managed 5 innings, C.J. Wilson couldn't find the plate and walked six without getting out of the fourth, Matt Cain got knocked around pretty good by the Cards, while Adam Wainwright showed once again that he's all kinds of not back from his injury that made him miss all last season whatever it was. Maybe this isn't really all that newsworthy but it matters to me because I took the god damn under on total runs which of course didn't cash because I'm on one of the all-time cold streaks, my friends. It's enough to make me quit gambling if that wouldn't mean my life would be cold and empty.
3. The Pacers completely rolled the Heat 94-75, and you know me and I hate jumping to conclusions or throwing out opinions with little to back them up, but I think this is over, dudes. Here's why. First, that one game the Heat lost earlier they had a chance to tie and Lebron didn't take the shot (of course) and Wade didn't take the shot but Mario Chalmers took the shot. And I like Chalmers and everything especially for when he pissed on John Calipari's dreams that one year, but come on. Then tonight Lebron scores 22, which sounds like a slightly down game, but then you realize that only 7 of those came in the second half, Wade scored just five points on 2-13 shooting, and Chalmers was the team's leading scorer with 25. Plus, here's stiff Roy Hibberts pt/rebs in the 3 games: 17/11, 8/11, 19/18. Roy fucking Hibbert! Does any of this sound like a team who has its shit together? It's over. I'm guessing sportsbooks will still have the Pacers only at like -150 or so to win the series or maybe even better - jump on it.
4. The Colonial Athletic Conference is losing everybody now that Old Dominion has announced it is leaving for Conference USA. First VCU bolted to join Butler in the A-10 and now ODU is taking off, and I'd be stunned if George Mason didn't join VCU in the next few days which means the three biggest basketball powers in the CAA are all leaving. Apparently CAA is going to try to bring in Davidson and Charleston out of the SoCon and Boston out of the America East, but with ODU, VCU, and GMU (I'm assuming) all gone I'm not so sure leaving the SoCon would even be a step up for Davidson and Charleston (although it clearly would be for BU). I assume at some point all this conference realignment will stop and it better stop soon because at the rate I drink alcohol my brain cells are getting very close to not being able to keep up with all this.
5. Toronto's Brett Lawrie dropped his appeal of his four-game suspension for losing his mind on an umpire, and it's probably a good idea because look at this shit:
In response, I've prepared this video:
6. Happy Birthday to Mrs. WWWWWWW. I know you're lucky to have me, but what you probably don't realize is that I'm super lucky to have you. Mostly because you're so hot. Happy birthday, baby. Way to always keep it classy:
1. The Twins beat the Tigers today, which would be newsworthy all on its own, but even more shocking is that gives them two straight wins over the Tigers (just the second winning streak of the entire season) and since this was just a 2-game series that means the Twins just swept the preseason division favorite, even if they are two games under .500. Even more shocking is they did it with Blackburn and P.J. Walters (who?) pitching the two games. Blackburn sucked as expected and is now on the DL, but the Twins actually decided to hit for once with a couple of homers (Dozier & Plouffe) and six doubles, managing to score 11 runs which I have to assume is a season high, to pull out the win. Then today Mr. Walters goes all no-hittery through the first four innings en route to a very nice game, picking up his second major league win and lowering his career ERA to a shade under seven. Still, it's a two game win streak against a supposed good team. Just 14 more to go to get to .500. We can do this.
2. It was a shitty day in daytime baseball if you were an ace-type pitcher or took the under on total runs scored today. Mat Latos got knocked around by the Mets and only managed 5 innings, C.J. Wilson couldn't find the plate and walked six without getting out of the fourth, Matt Cain got knocked around pretty good by the Cards, while Adam Wainwright showed once again that he's all kinds of not back from his injury that made him miss all last season whatever it was. Maybe this isn't really all that newsworthy but it matters to me because I took the god damn under on total runs which of course didn't cash because I'm on one of the all-time cold streaks, my friends. It's enough to make me quit gambling if that wouldn't mean my life would be cold and empty.
3. The Pacers completely rolled the Heat 94-75, and you know me and I hate jumping to conclusions or throwing out opinions with little to back them up, but I think this is over, dudes. Here's why. First, that one game the Heat lost earlier they had a chance to tie and Lebron didn't take the shot (of course) and Wade didn't take the shot but Mario Chalmers took the shot. And I like Chalmers and everything especially for when he pissed on John Calipari's dreams that one year, but come on. Then tonight Lebron scores 22, which sounds like a slightly down game, but then you realize that only 7 of those came in the second half, Wade scored just five points on 2-13 shooting, and Chalmers was the team's leading scorer with 25. Plus, here's stiff Roy Hibberts pt/rebs in the 3 games: 17/11, 8/11, 19/18. Roy fucking Hibbert! Does any of this sound like a team who has its shit together? It's over. I'm guessing sportsbooks will still have the Pacers only at like -150 or so to win the series or maybe even better - jump on it.
4. The Colonial Athletic Conference is losing everybody now that Old Dominion has announced it is leaving for Conference USA. First VCU bolted to join Butler in the A-10 and now ODU is taking off, and I'd be stunned if George Mason didn't join VCU in the next few days which means the three biggest basketball powers in the CAA are all leaving. Apparently CAA is going to try to bring in Davidson and Charleston out of the SoCon and Boston out of the America East, but with ODU, VCU, and GMU (I'm assuming) all gone I'm not so sure leaving the SoCon would even be a step up for Davidson and Charleston (although it clearly would be for BU). I assume at some point all this conference realignment will stop and it better stop soon because at the rate I drink alcohol my brain cells are getting very close to not being able to keep up with all this.
5. Toronto's Brett Lawrie dropped his appeal of his four-game suspension for losing his mind on an umpire, and it's probably a good idea because look at this shit:
In response, I've prepared this video:
6. Happy Birthday to Mrs. WWWWWWW. I know you're lucky to have me, but what you probably don't realize is that I'm super lucky to have you. Mostly because you're so hot. Happy birthday, baby. Way to always keep it classy:
Friday, October 21, 2011
NCAA Basketball Preview: C-USA
So what's the deal now? Conference USA is merging with The Mountain West, but only for football or something like that? Seriously, I can't keep all this crap straight. Too hard. I need a flow chart or a Venn diagram or just someone to come sit with me for 20 minutes and explain what's going on.
I guess it doesn't really matter though because that's football and everybody knows basketball is way more important, and I don't think that merger or whatever touches hoops in any way, so C-USA is safe. Well, kind of safe, as long as you don't count Houston and UCF going to the Big East (I think UCF is part of that, right?), and I don't know if that's like, just football or what. I think it's a full on move.
Oh never mind. Let's just get to the boring previews.
1. MEMPHIS TIGERS. After a couple of meh seasons, at least by Memphis standards, the Tigers are most definitely back and despite what's looking like and "up" version of C-USA this year it wouldn't be stunning to see them run the table in conference play. They lose only one contributor from last year's team, which means at this point the team is loaded with ten guys on the roster who were Rivals Top 150s when they came to college. Actually, with seven players who averaged between 6.6 and 12.3 points per game back from last season (and nobody over that 12.3) this reminds me a lot of those Calipari teams where they were just loaded with super athletic, super talented, interchangeable parts. Good thing for those who hate Memphis that Pastner is looking like he's on the same "game coach" level as Calipari.
2. CENTRAL FLORIDA KNIGHTS. There are some very interesting things happening with UCF, and none of them involve either of the overrated Jordan brothers. The most interesting thing, to me, is Keith Clanton, who made a huge leap in his sophomore year and was among the C-USA leaders in points, blocks, boards, and FG %. Guy is a monster, and the Knights will be able to put Michael Chandler, the fifth best incoming center in the country according to Rivals, right next to him this year - and he picked UCF over Kentucky. With those two, the Jordans, their starting point guard back, and some talented transfers, UCF has a very good chance at grabbing an NCAA bid - or starting out hot as fire and then collapsing like a dying star like last season.
3. MARSHALL THUNDERING HERD. It's been two years since Hassan Whiteside jumped to theNBA D-League, but somehow, improbably, Marshall is actually like, really really talented this year (for a C-USA team). DeAndre Kane was freshman of the year last season, and Justin Coleman was stolen away from Louisville and then did this at their big not Midnight Madness event:
And I'll just leave it at that.
4. RICE OWLS. You probably aren't smart enough to know this, but this is actually a really ballsy call. Rice has been one of the worst college basketball teams in the world the last few seasons, but last year managed to win five conference games - which equaled their combined total for the previous 3 seasons. A small step, but still a step in the right direction, and they still have Arsalan Kazemi, who is not that Lion from the Jesus movies but might be the best player in the conference outside of Memphis. They also add a truly excellent mid-level play-making point guard in Dylan Ennis, who had offers from basically every mid-major and chose to become an Owl. It's a down year in C-USA this season, so maybe Rice can actually make a postseason tournament. WHAT AN ADVENTURE!
5. TULSA GOLDEN HURRICANE. Justin Hurtt led C-USA in scoring last season and has graduated, but it looks like Tulsa has a player already waiting to take over for him in Jordan Clarkson who scored 12 per game as a freshman last year and closed out last year with seven straight games in double-figures. Tulsa also returns two other double figure scorers including former UCONN transfer Scottie Haralson, who is the best long-range threat on the Hurricane, and Steven Idlet who gives them an inside presence. I might actually be underselling them a bit with that much back, but it will take a while to adjust to not having Hurtt around. Probably one of those teams that is a lot better in February than in November.
6. UAB BLAZERS. The Blazers are a lot like several other C-USA teams in that they have an awful lot of talent from last year that's no longer available - in this case their three top guards are all history - but they have an advantage over many of the other squads because they have a solid base with a couple of very good post players, including Cameron Moore who was their second leading scorer and #2 rebounder in the conference last season, and rather than relying on freshmen or transfers to fill in for the departed they have a bunch of sophomores with some experience. I don't really see an NCAA berth here, but I wouldn't rule it out either. I'm like Peter King. MAYBE.
7. SOUTHERN MISS EAGLES. Another team dealing with some major losses, the Eagles will have to replace leading scorer and rebounder Gary Flowers as well as two of their three starting guards. Larry Eustachy did what guys like Larry Eustachy do, and went out and grabbed a ton of JuCo players to team up with starting point guard Angelo Johnson - yes the Minnesota kid - who led the team in assists last season. The JuCos being brought in look good with three guys ranking in the top 150 JuCo players according to Rivals, including #2 Keith DeWitt who was originally a Missouri commit, but you never know what you're getting with Juco players - don't forget this same list had Devron Bostick ranked as a top 5 player (which he could have been if Tubby knew how to use him properly - arg.)
8. SOUTHERN METHODIST MUSTANGS. Despite losing one of the best players in C-USA last year, Papa Dia, SMU should still be competitive thanks to four other returning starters. Robert Nyakundi is clearly the best returner - he was second on the team with 14.3 points and 4.3 rebounds per game last season, and even though he is an excellent outside shooter, hitting 50% from three last seasons, he doesn't live out there and can score from anywhere, not to mention being an excellent rebounder. Then there's some other guys too.
9. UTEP MINERS. UTEP was a pretty fun team to watch last year. Randy Culpepper could score in bunches and I'm pretty sure is one of the all-time leading scorers for the Miners, Christian Polk had one of the most incredible games I've ever seen against Memphis in the C-USA Championship (27 pts on 11-14 shooting), Julyan Stone was a defensive standout and awesome rebounder, and Jeremy Williams was the team's third leading scorer who I don't remember Now those guys are all gone. Basically the whole team is new guys, either from high school or transfers, either JuCo or otherwise, and who knows that'll probably make them competitive here and there but it'll be a tough year.
10. TULANE GREEN WAVE. Tulane loses three starters from last season, but the good news for them is they are at least retaining the most important two - swingman Kendall Timmons and point guard Jordan Callahan (who is probably related to that little wiener from South Dakota State). Timmons led the team in scoring, rebounding, steals, and blocks last year and can do it all, while Callahan was second in scoring and led the team (and was fifth in C-USA) in assists, so Tulane at least has a good backcourt to build around. Of course I'm not sure what they're building around them with, since there are only two other returnees from last year's team on the roster. Josh Davis is a transfer from NC State where he played in all 31 games as a freshman two seasons ago, so that's a good start, and those two guards are going to be good enough to engineer at upset or two at some point this year.
11. EAST CAROLINA PIRATES. By ECU standards, last season was a smashing success - they beat Memphis for the first time ever, won two CUSA Tournament games, and were granted an invite to the collegeinsider.com post-season tournament, their first postseason berth since 1992. Of course, as it goes with these kinds of programs, that was the big shot and now three of their top four players are gone to graduation and it's back to the depths of the conference for the Pirates. Although there is some reason for optimism - ECU landed transfers from both South Carolina and Missouri. If ECU can become an attractive "second-chance" transfer school that might be their way to climb up the C-USA pecking order.
12. HOUSTON COUGARS. You know what's never good? When you go 12-18 and lose all three of your double-digit scorers. Welcome to Houston. The good news here, however, is that nobody really cares about this year because this is just year #2 for their new coach and he's got recruiting moving in a very good direction. The Cougars bring in a Rivals Top 150 recruit this year in PF TaShawn Thomas (#113) and have two more on their way next season in PF Chicken Knowles (#47), who chose the Cougars over Missouri and Baylor, and an incredible get in PF Danuel House (#15) who went with Houston and spurned Arizona, Kansas, Ohio State, and Texas amongst others to become a Cougar. Very impressive stuff here, and maybe a hint that Houston could actually survive in the Big East.
I guess it doesn't really matter though because that's football and everybody knows basketball is way more important, and I don't think that merger or whatever touches hoops in any way, so C-USA is safe. Well, kind of safe, as long as you don't count Houston and UCF going to the Big East (I think UCF is part of that, right?), and I don't know if that's like, just football or what. I think it's a full on move.
Oh never mind. Let's just get to the boring previews.
1. MEMPHIS TIGERS. After a couple of meh seasons, at least by Memphis standards, the Tigers are most definitely back and despite what's looking like and "up" version of C-USA this year it wouldn't be stunning to see them run the table in conference play. They lose only one contributor from last year's team, which means at this point the team is loaded with ten guys on the roster who were Rivals Top 150s when they came to college. Actually, with seven players who averaged between 6.6 and 12.3 points per game back from last season (and nobody over that 12.3) this reminds me a lot of those Calipari teams where they were just loaded with super athletic, super talented, interchangeable parts. Good thing for those who hate Memphis that Pastner is looking like he's on the same "game coach" level as Calipari.
2. CENTRAL FLORIDA KNIGHTS. There are some very interesting things happening with UCF, and none of them involve either of the overrated Jordan brothers. The most interesting thing, to me, is Keith Clanton, who made a huge leap in his sophomore year and was among the C-USA leaders in points, blocks, boards, and FG %. Guy is a monster, and the Knights will be able to put Michael Chandler, the fifth best incoming center in the country according to Rivals, right next to him this year - and he picked UCF over Kentucky. With those two, the Jordans, their starting point guard back, and some talented transfers, UCF has a very good chance at grabbing an NCAA bid - or starting out hot as fire and then collapsing like a dying star like last season.
3. MARSHALL THUNDERING HERD. It's been two years since Hassan Whiteside jumped to the
And I'll just leave it at that.
4. RICE OWLS. You probably aren't smart enough to know this, but this is actually a really ballsy call. Rice has been one of the worst college basketball teams in the world the last few seasons, but last year managed to win five conference games - which equaled their combined total for the previous 3 seasons. A small step, but still a step in the right direction, and they still have Arsalan Kazemi, who is not that Lion from the Jesus movies but might be the best player in the conference outside of Memphis. They also add a truly excellent mid-level play-making point guard in Dylan Ennis, who had offers from basically every mid-major and chose to become an Owl. It's a down year in C-USA this season, so maybe Rice can actually make a postseason tournament. WHAT AN ADVENTURE!
5. TULSA GOLDEN HURRICANE. Justin Hurtt led C-USA in scoring last season and has graduated, but it looks like Tulsa has a player already waiting to take over for him in Jordan Clarkson who scored 12 per game as a freshman last year and closed out last year with seven straight games in double-figures. Tulsa also returns two other double figure scorers including former UCONN transfer Scottie Haralson, who is the best long-range threat on the Hurricane, and Steven Idlet who gives them an inside presence. I might actually be underselling them a bit with that much back, but it will take a while to adjust to not having Hurtt around. Probably one of those teams that is a lot better in February than in November.
6. UAB BLAZERS. The Blazers are a lot like several other C-USA teams in that they have an awful lot of talent from last year that's no longer available - in this case their three top guards are all history - but they have an advantage over many of the other squads because they have a solid base with a couple of very good post players, including Cameron Moore who was their second leading scorer and #2 rebounder in the conference last season, and rather than relying on freshmen or transfers to fill in for the departed they have a bunch of sophomores with some experience. I don't really see an NCAA berth here, but I wouldn't rule it out either. I'm like Peter King. MAYBE.
7. SOUTHERN MISS EAGLES. Another team dealing with some major losses, the Eagles will have to replace leading scorer and rebounder Gary Flowers as well as two of their three starting guards. Larry Eustachy did what guys like Larry Eustachy do, and went out and grabbed a ton of JuCo players to team up with starting point guard Angelo Johnson - yes the Minnesota kid - who led the team in assists last season. The JuCos being brought in look good with three guys ranking in the top 150 JuCo players according to Rivals, including #2 Keith DeWitt who was originally a Missouri commit, but you never know what you're getting with Juco players - don't forget this same list had Devron Bostick ranked as a top 5 player (which he could have been if Tubby knew how to use him properly - arg.)
8. SOUTHERN METHODIST MUSTANGS. Despite losing one of the best players in C-USA last year, Papa Dia, SMU should still be competitive thanks to four other returning starters. Robert Nyakundi is clearly the best returner - he was second on the team with 14.3 points and 4.3 rebounds per game last season, and even though he is an excellent outside shooter, hitting 50% from three last seasons, he doesn't live out there and can score from anywhere, not to mention being an excellent rebounder. Then there's some other guys too.
9. UTEP MINERS. UTEP was a pretty fun team to watch last year. Randy Culpepper could score in bunches and I'm pretty sure is one of the all-time leading scorers for the Miners, Christian Polk had one of the most incredible games I've ever seen against Memphis in the C-USA Championship (27 pts on 11-14 shooting), Julyan Stone was a defensive standout and awesome rebounder, and Jeremy Williams was the team's third leading scorer who I don't remember Now those guys are all gone. Basically the whole team is new guys, either from high school or transfers, either JuCo or otherwise, and who knows that'll probably make them competitive here and there but it'll be a tough year.
10. TULANE GREEN WAVE. Tulane loses three starters from last season, but the good news for them is they are at least retaining the most important two - swingman Kendall Timmons and point guard Jordan Callahan (who is probably related to that little wiener from South Dakota State). Timmons led the team in scoring, rebounding, steals, and blocks last year and can do it all, while Callahan was second in scoring and led the team (and was fifth in C-USA) in assists, so Tulane at least has a good backcourt to build around. Of course I'm not sure what they're building around them with, since there are only two other returnees from last year's team on the roster. Josh Davis is a transfer from NC State where he played in all 31 games as a freshman two seasons ago, so that's a good start, and those two guards are going to be good enough to engineer at upset or two at some point this year.
11. EAST CAROLINA PIRATES. By ECU standards, last season was a smashing success - they beat Memphis for the first time ever, won two CUSA Tournament games, and were granted an invite to the collegeinsider.com post-season tournament, their first postseason berth since 1992. Of course, as it goes with these kinds of programs, that was the big shot and now three of their top four players are gone to graduation and it's back to the depths of the conference for the Pirates. Although there is some reason for optimism - ECU landed transfers from both South Carolina and Missouri. If ECU can become an attractive "second-chance" transfer school that might be their way to climb up the C-USA pecking order.
12. HOUSTON COUGARS. You know what's never good? When you go 12-18 and lose all three of your double-digit scorers. Welcome to Houston. The good news here, however, is that nobody really cares about this year because this is just year #2 for their new coach and he's got recruiting moving in a very good direction. The Cougars bring in a Rivals Top 150 recruit this year in PF TaShawn Thomas (#113) and have two more on their way next season in PF Chicken Knowles (#47), who chose the Cougars over Missouri and Baylor, and an incredible get in PF Danuel House (#15) who went with Houston and spurned Arizona, Kansas, Ohio State, and Texas amongst others to become a Cougar. Very impressive stuff here, and maybe a hint that Houston could actually survive in the Big East.
Wednesday, March 9, 2011
Still Going Strong
Awesome job by Oakland. After a very tough non-conference schedule to get them used to that level of competition they used that experience to absolutely run through the Summit, culminating in an easy tournament win and an NCAA berth. They are going to be very tough. There are a few teams in the first round in that 4-5 seed area that I don't think they can handle, but without seeing matchups I'd give them about a 75% chance of a first round victory.
Also of note is Butler's win, a team that everyone will pick as a first round upset winner, which won't happen, and Ark-Little Rock won the Sun Belt, a team nobody will pick to win and they most definitely won't. Finally, Villanova continued their slide in a loss to South Florida (a great game, actually) and will now be such a low seed that everyone will know they're going to lose. I really wish they could have maintained a 4 or 5 - easy pick to lose.
BIG TWELVE: I feel like this conference is a bit underwhelming this year. Yeah, Kansas is good and a title contender, but the rest? Meh. Texas will flame out, Texas A&M sucks, and Colorado probably won't even make the tournament. I guess Kansas State is sort of exciting in a "can they salvage the season" kind of way but I don't know. I think I'm going to need Frank Martin to strangle a player/ref/assistant or something to get me jazzed up about the Wildcats. I guess I kind of like Missouri.
Also of note is Butler's win, a team that everyone will pick as a first round upset winner, which won't happen, and Ark-Little Rock won the Sun Belt, a team nobody will pick to win and they most definitely won't. Finally, Villanova continued their slide in a loss to South Florida (a great game, actually) and will now be such a low seed that everyone will know they're going to lose. I really wish they could have maintained a 4 or 5 - easy pick to lose.
BIG TWELVE: I feel like this conference is a bit underwhelming this year. Yeah, Kansas is good and a title contender, but the rest? Meh. Texas will flame out, Texas A&M sucks, and Colorado probably won't even make the tournament. I guess Kansas State is sort of exciting in a "can they salvage the season" kind of way but I don't know. I think I'm going to need Frank Martin to strangle a player/ref/assistant or something to get me jazzed up about the Wildcats. I guess I kind of like Missouri.
FAVORITE: Kansas. Yes, I know Texas smoked them in Lawrence and that was a pretty big deal win, but Kansas doesn't do things like lose to Colorado or Nebraska - practically Texas's M.O. the last few years.
SLEEPER: Baylor. Is this just me refusing to give up on a team that I loved preseason despite all evidence pointing to the fact that they just plain suck, or are the Bears a legitimate sleeping giant, just waiting to go on a run? I think we all know the answer to that.
W's PICK: Texas. Even though I'm fully expected them to be upset in the first weekend of the NCAA Tournament, they are talented enough and dumb enough to get all amped up for this and win it, only to go out and get smoked by Belmont.
WHO'S DANCING: Kansas, Texas, Texas A&M, Kansas State, Missouri, Colorado
CONFERENCE USA: I keep hoping C-USA will be good someday, but I'm starting to think that's just crazy talk. UAB, UTEP, Memphis, Southern Miss, Tulsa, and UCF were all supposed to be in line for a possible bid this year, but at this point it's looking like UAB is the only team with a shot at an at-large. I don't know. I guess I just thought this conference would be better.
FAVORITE: UAB. Solely because they won the regular season title and are the #1 seed. In reality any one of those teams I mentioned above could easily end up winning this and it wouldn't be remotely surprising.
SLEEPER: Central Florida. They finished C-USA Play at just 6-10, but I'm not exactly sure what happened. This is still the same team that started the season 14-0 and beat both Florida and Miami. I have to believe there's a chance they can find that form again, and in a conference with no dominant teams it's wide open.
W's PICK: Memphis. It could be any of several teams at the top, but Southern Miss was terrible against the good teams in the conference and UTEP and Tulsa both fattened up their records by playing really easy C-USA schedules, so that leaves UAB and Memphis. I think Memphis has more talent.
WHO'S DANCING: Memphis. If the Tigers win that means UAB didn't make the championship game, something they probably have to do to get an at-large.
PAC 10: The Pac-10 still sucks but it's at least getting better. Last year at this time we were wondering if they'd get even two bids, this year they are certain to get three with an outside shot at four. That being said, it wouldn't be a shocker if they end up 0-for the first round as a conference.
FAVORITE: Arizona. I'm not exactly sure how they ended up winning the regular season title, but I'm pretty sure it has something to do with Derrick Williams. That dude is pretty unreal, and has basically carried the Wildcats to every big win they've had this year. It's just too bad for him he's basically all alone out there.
SLEEPER: USC. The tournament is in LA, so that's huge for the Trojans, plus they've already beaten UCLA, Washington, and Arizona this year. There only real problem has been losing to bad teams (swept by Oregon? Ouch.) but that's something they'll likely avoid with their four seed.
W's PICK: Washington. I don't care about the seven Pac-10 losses, the third place conference finish, or the 2-3 finish to the season - this is the best team in this conference. They're the most fun to watch, too, so let's hope they don't slip up against on Thursday because that loss might be enough to send them to the NIT. Which would be a shame, because nobody plays circus ball on Over Saturday like the Huskies.
WHO'S DANCING: Arizona, UCLA, Washington, USC
SOUTHLAND: Do you remember the wrestler Sam Houston? Probably not, because he wasn't really all that big of a deal or any good or anything and was only in the WWF from 87-89 and anybody who watched anything other than the WWF at that time was just wasting their time (the Midnight Rockers had already moved on from the AWA.) Anyway, guess who his half brother is? Jake "The Snake" Roberts. Fascinating. Also Sam Houston State is in the Southland Conference.
FAVORITE: McNeese State. The Cowboys semi-respectable RPI (#163) and what will be over 20 wins if they win the Southland Tournament mean they might be all the way up to a 15 seed. With absolutely zero chance of beating anybody.
SLEEPER: Stephen F. Austin. They are actually a decent defensive team and they play a tempo so slow they're nearly going backwards. They also have four wins against non D-I schools this year, including an 39-point win over Oklahoma School of Science and the Arts. Thrilling.
W's PICK: Sam Houston State. Jake the Snake man, that dude was awesome. Not so awesome? His snake, Damien, starved to death, locked in Jake's garage. Bad karma, man. Bad karma.
SWAC: The Southland's younger, shittier brother, the winner of the SWAC is basically guaranteed a spot in the play-in game because every single team is terrible. The best team here according to kenpom's statistical breakdown is Jackson State, who ranks #282 out of the 345 teams in D-I. The bottom of the conference contains teams #344, #341, #340, #337, and #330. Only Texas Southern and Jackson State have winning records on the season. These are bad teams.
FAVORITE: Texas Southern. Jackson State ranks slightly higher 282 vs. 284, but Texas Southern ran through the league and finished 16-2, which probably means they just showed up for every game. They did, at least, beat Oregon State, by far the best win by any team in the SWAC.
SLEEPER: Mississippi Valley State. They actually have a non-conference win over a D-I team (Georgia Southern), which may not sound like much but it's actually really rare. Of the 10 SWAC teams only these guys, Texas Southern, Jackson State, Grambling, and Alabama State managed to pull it off.
W's PICK: Jackson State. They're fifth in the country in forcing turnovers. That's the kind of defense that could make them a pesky 16 seed. Or I'm just flaying about wildly for anything remotely positive to say.
WAC: Pretty simple here: Utah State needs to win, and with the way the WAC sets up the tournament they're in good shape with an automatic bye to the semifinals. Some think they're safe no matter what, others think they can't possibly get an at-large. I'd say their biggest problems is that no matter who they face, a loss even in the championship is going to be a bad loss - no other WAC team is even inside the top 125 RPI. So they should probably just win.
FAVORITE: Utah State. I just said that. Their RPI is #17, next best is Boise at #126. They rank #13 at kenpom. Next is Boise at #81. They lost one conference game which was a pretty big fluke to a crappy team. They're more of a favorite than any other team in any other conference.
SLEEPER: San Jose State. There really isn't a whole lot to love about any of these teams, so I'll go with the "who has the most talented players" angle. Despite going just 5-11, SJSU has the conference's leading scorer (Adrian Oliver), #3 assist man (Justin Graham), and #5 rebounder (Will Carter). I suppose they could all get hot at the same time.
W's PICK: Utah State. It would be a heart-breaking shocker if they don't win this, particularly because they only need to win two games. I think they're safe even if they don't, but it's better not to play that game with the committee.
WHO'S DANCING: Utah State
Outside of the bubble teams mentioned above there isn't too much intrigue tonight, so instead watch the most awesomest video ever:
Monday, March 15, 2010
Week in Review - 3/15/2010
Whew. Were you like me and had your heart drop when Florida popped up on the screen? Terrifying, but ultimately the committee made the right choices and the Gophers were rewarded for an incredible last week of ball. I like the matchup quite a bit, too. Not necessarily because I think the Gophers will have an easy time with Xavier or anything, but mainly because I think that region is pretty weak. If they can get by the Musketeers, they get the weakest three seed in the second round. They also caught a pretty big break by playing in Milwaukee, where they should have a sizable advantage in fans.
One thing is for sure, it's exciting, and the season no longer goes down as a failure. I'll be back with a true preview before I head out to Chicago with Snacks and Snake, but for now I'm predicting a Gopher win.
WHO WAS AWESOME
1. Colt Iverson. How did this happen? And I'm not even talking numbers, although basically scoring double his season average in every game is impressive, but his game was completely unrecognizable and I mean that in a good way. His moves were suddenly polished, and he had a lot of them. He now suddenly has a drop step. He's using shot fakes beautifully and looks like Kevin McHale down there. He can score with either hand. I have no idea what is going on here. I thought his upside was going to be like a Greg Ostertag rebounder/enforcer type who is most valuable for setting picks and his five fouls per game, but suddenly things have gotten really interesting. If this is for real, the Gophers are suddenly a dangerous team. Please let this be for real - like the Loch Ness Monster - and not some kind of false production - like the Moon Landing.
2. San Diego State. If you're on the bubble going into your conference tournament there is one surefire way to make sure you get a bid - win the whole thing, and that's what the Aztecs did, winning the MWC tournament, including wins over UNLV and New Mexico. SDSU is a dangerous team, and they went 2-1 against New Mexico this year with the loss being by just two points. Drawing Tennessee is always a mystery since they are the kind of team who could either flame out early or go on a deep run, but I'm calling an Aztec upset in the first round.
3. Duke. It's always tough to praise Duke, but they did what a lot of other regular season conference champions couldn't manage and they went out and won their conference tournament. They got lucky a bit in that Maryland got knocked out early by Georgia Tech, but winning the ACC is still winning the ACC. As a bonus, they picked up the fourth #1 seed and were somehow placed in the easiest region in the history of college basketball. But, since they're Duke, I'm sure they'll still screw it up somehow.
4. Ohio. Every year some middling team from a smaller conference gets hot and makes a run, winning their conference tournament and setting themselves up to get their doors blown off in the first round. This year, that honor goes to the Ohio Bobcats for winning the MAC, with Georgetown being the doors-blow-offer. Kent State or Akron would have been a dangerous foe, but they couldn't get it done so now we're saddled with the crappy Bobcats. And how tough is that region? The top five seeds are all legit Final Four contenders, including probably the best #1 and best #2. It should end up playing pretty close to form as I only see one real first round upset possibility, but whoever ends up coming out of there is really going to have to earn it.
5. Second-Tier basketball tournaments. I know nobody really gives a crap about the NIT, CBI, or CIT because the only thing that matters is the NCAA Tournament, and I agree with a lot of that, but I also really like the second-tier tournaments. There's some intrigue with these. Illinois and Dayton ended up in the same bracket, and that would be a pretty good matchup. Will either UCONN or North Carolina put their talent together finally and play well, or have they completely given up for the year? And if nothing else, be thankful they exist so there's some college ball to watch/wager on all week long.
WHO SUCKED
1. Conference USA. It looked like this might be a break-through year for C-USA with a legitimate chance of them getting four teams in the dance depending on how the conference tourney shook out. It shook alright, with Memphis and UAB both getting dumped by crappy teams in the quarters, ending both team's NCAA dreams and assuring that outside of UTEP, nobody would be getting an at-large bid from the conference. They did manage to get two team's in thanks to Houston's championship win, but the Cougars are crappy and UTEP got a shitty seed, so there's a good chance C-USA goes 0 for the tournament this year.
2. Virginia Tech. This is the team that most people seem to have a problem with being excluded from the tournament, but the Hokies aren't even close to deserving a bid. That 23-8 mark looks nice, but their non-conference Strength of Schedule ranked a ridiculous 344th in the country. Their only non-conference wins over teams that are even remotely not god awful were over Penn State and Georgia, pretty much the defining line before you get to god awful. And as good as a 10-6 conference mark looks, they didn't beat either Duke or Maryland. Combine all that with a first round loss to Miami in the ACC tournament, and there is no way the Hokies deserved a bid. Sorry VT, maybe try to schedule some real teams in the future.
3. Dayton. Well it is now official - this year's trip to Chicago will be a bit hollow, since when we go to the Dayton bar there won't be any Dayton fans there, unless I guess maybe there's an NIT game or something. Considering they were supposed to be at the top of the A-10 and be a sweet-16 type team, this year can't be considered anything other than a disaster. Other than one win over Xavier and an early non-conference victory over Georgia Tech, they couldn't beat anybody, whiffing on games against Villanova, Kansas State, and New Mexico, and they lost plenty of games they couldn't afford to lose. Coming down the stretch they lost games to St. Louis, Richmond, and Duquesne. Losing to Richmond and St. Louis might have been manageable, but the loss to Duquesne was a crusher.
4. Mississippi State. Jarvis Varnado deserves better than the NIT, but for the second straight year MSU didn't do enough to get into the tournament and had to try to win SEC tournament to get in. Last year it worked, this year it came just short. The Bulldogs were damn close though, leading Kentucky by three with 4.9 seconds to go in the game. The Wildcats, however, pulled off the rare intentionally miss a free throw, get the rebound and score to tie the game move and sent it into overtime where they ended up winning and sent MSU to the NIT. Hopefully they can play well and at least make it to Madison Square Garden and send Varnado out in style, a player like that deserves it. I'm really going to miss him.
5. Northwestern. Ouch. From 10-1 media sleeper sensation to earn their first ever NCAA bid all the way to a 7 seed in the NIT (and will play vs. Rhode Island in round 1). I'm not too worried about them though, they'll almost certainly get a bid next year. With Shurna and Thompson both back, Coble returning from injury, and Drew Crawford getting better they have a real chance at an upper-division finish in the conference next year. That sounds weird.
THE GOPHERS MADE THE TOURNAMENT!!!!!
One thing is for sure, it's exciting, and the season no longer goes down as a failure. I'll be back with a true preview before I head out to Chicago with Snacks and Snake, but for now I'm predicting a Gopher win.
WHO WAS AWESOME
1. Colt Iverson. How did this happen? And I'm not even talking numbers, although basically scoring double his season average in every game is impressive, but his game was completely unrecognizable and I mean that in a good way. His moves were suddenly polished, and he had a lot of them. He now suddenly has a drop step. He's using shot fakes beautifully and looks like Kevin McHale down there. He can score with either hand. I have no idea what is going on here. I thought his upside was going to be like a Greg Ostertag rebounder/enforcer type who is most valuable for setting picks and his five fouls per game, but suddenly things have gotten really interesting. If this is for real, the Gophers are suddenly a dangerous team. Please let this be for real - like the Loch Ness Monster - and not some kind of false production - like the Moon Landing.
2. San Diego State. If you're on the bubble going into your conference tournament there is one surefire way to make sure you get a bid - win the whole thing, and that's what the Aztecs did, winning the MWC tournament, including wins over UNLV and New Mexico. SDSU is a dangerous team, and they went 2-1 against New Mexico this year with the loss being by just two points. Drawing Tennessee is always a mystery since they are the kind of team who could either flame out early or go on a deep run, but I'm calling an Aztec upset in the first round.
3. Duke. It's always tough to praise Duke, but they did what a lot of other regular season conference champions couldn't manage and they went out and won their conference tournament. They got lucky a bit in that Maryland got knocked out early by Georgia Tech, but winning the ACC is still winning the ACC. As a bonus, they picked up the fourth #1 seed and were somehow placed in the easiest region in the history of college basketball. But, since they're Duke, I'm sure they'll still screw it up somehow.
4. Ohio. Every year some middling team from a smaller conference gets hot and makes a run, winning their conference tournament and setting themselves up to get their doors blown off in the first round. This year, that honor goes to the Ohio Bobcats for winning the MAC, with Georgetown being the doors-blow-offer. Kent State or Akron would have been a dangerous foe, but they couldn't get it done so now we're saddled with the crappy Bobcats. And how tough is that region? The top five seeds are all legit Final Four contenders, including probably the best #1 and best #2. It should end up playing pretty close to form as I only see one real first round upset possibility, but whoever ends up coming out of there is really going to have to earn it.
5. Second-Tier basketball tournaments. I know nobody really gives a crap about the NIT, CBI, or CIT because the only thing that matters is the NCAA Tournament, and I agree with a lot of that, but I also really like the second-tier tournaments. There's some intrigue with these. Illinois and Dayton ended up in the same bracket, and that would be a pretty good matchup. Will either UCONN or North Carolina put their talent together finally and play well, or have they completely given up for the year? And if nothing else, be thankful they exist so there's some college ball to watch/wager on all week long.
WHO SUCKED
1. Conference USA. It looked like this might be a break-through year for C-USA with a legitimate chance of them getting four teams in the dance depending on how the conference tourney shook out. It shook alright, with Memphis and UAB both getting dumped by crappy teams in the quarters, ending both team's NCAA dreams and assuring that outside of UTEP, nobody would be getting an at-large bid from the conference. They did manage to get two team's in thanks to Houston's championship win, but the Cougars are crappy and UTEP got a shitty seed, so there's a good chance C-USA goes 0 for the tournament this year.
2. Virginia Tech. This is the team that most people seem to have a problem with being excluded from the tournament, but the Hokies aren't even close to deserving a bid. That 23-8 mark looks nice, but their non-conference Strength of Schedule ranked a ridiculous 344th in the country. Their only non-conference wins over teams that are even remotely not god awful were over Penn State and Georgia, pretty much the defining line before you get to god awful. And as good as a 10-6 conference mark looks, they didn't beat either Duke or Maryland. Combine all that with a first round loss to Miami in the ACC tournament, and there is no way the Hokies deserved a bid. Sorry VT, maybe try to schedule some real teams in the future.
3. Dayton. Well it is now official - this year's trip to Chicago will be a bit hollow, since when we go to the Dayton bar there won't be any Dayton fans there, unless I guess maybe there's an NIT game or something. Considering they were supposed to be at the top of the A-10 and be a sweet-16 type team, this year can't be considered anything other than a disaster. Other than one win over Xavier and an early non-conference victory over Georgia Tech, they couldn't beat anybody, whiffing on games against Villanova, Kansas State, and New Mexico, and they lost plenty of games they couldn't afford to lose. Coming down the stretch they lost games to St. Louis, Richmond, and Duquesne. Losing to Richmond and St. Louis might have been manageable, but the loss to Duquesne was a crusher.
4. Mississippi State. Jarvis Varnado deserves better than the NIT, but for the second straight year MSU didn't do enough to get into the tournament and had to try to win SEC tournament to get in. Last year it worked, this year it came just short. The Bulldogs were damn close though, leading Kentucky by three with 4.9 seconds to go in the game. The Wildcats, however, pulled off the rare intentionally miss a free throw, get the rebound and score to tie the game move and sent it into overtime where they ended up winning and sent MSU to the NIT. Hopefully they can play well and at least make it to Madison Square Garden and send Varnado out in style, a player like that deserves it. I'm really going to miss him.
5. Northwestern. Ouch. From 10-1 media sleeper sensation to earn their first ever NCAA bid all the way to a 7 seed in the NIT (and will play vs. Rhode Island in round 1). I'm not too worried about them though, they'll almost certainly get a bid next year. With Shurna and Thompson both back, Coble returning from injury, and Drew Crawford getting better they have a real chance at an upper-division finish in the conference next year. That sounds weird.
THE GOPHERS MADE THE TOURNAMENT!!!!!
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
Posts
