NCAA Basketball Preview: C-USA

 So what's the deal now?  Conference USA is merging with The Mountain West, but only for football or something like that?  Seriously, I can't keep all this crap straight.  Too hard.  I need a flow chart or a Venn diagram or just someone to come sit with me for 20 minutes and explain what's going on.

I guess it doesn't really matter though because that's football and everybody knows basketball is way more important, and I don't think that merger or whatever touches hoops in any way, so C-USA is safe.  Well, kind of safe, as long as you don't count Houston and UCF going to the Big East (I think UCF is part of that, right?), and I don't know if that's like, just football or what.  I think it's a full on move.

Oh never mind.  Let's just get to the boring previews.

1.  MEMPHIS TIGERS.  After a couple of meh seasons, at least by Memphis standards, the Tigers are most definitely back and despite what's looking like and "up" version of C-USA this year it wouldn't be stunning to see them run the table in conference play.  They lose only one contributor from last year's team, which means at this point the team is loaded with ten guys on the roster who were Rivals Top 150s when they came to college.  Actually, with seven players who averaged between 6.6 and 12.3 points per game back from last season (and nobody over that 12.3) this reminds me a lot of those Calipari teams where they were just loaded with super athletic, super talented, interchangeable parts.  Good thing for those who hate Memphis that Pastner is looking like he's on the same "game coach" level as Calipari.

2.  CENTRAL FLORIDA KNIGHTS.  There are some very interesting things happening with UCF, and none of them involve either of the overrated Jordan brothers.  The most interesting thing, to me, is Keith Clanton, who made a huge leap in his sophomore year and was among the C-USA leaders in points, blocks, boards, and FG %.   Guy is a monster, and the Knights will be able to put Michael Chandler, the fifth best incoming center in the country according to Rivals, right next to him this year - and he picked UCF over Kentucky.  With those two, the Jordans, their starting point guard back, and some talented transfers, UCF has a very good chance at grabbing an NCAA bid - or starting out hot as fire and then collapsing like a dying star like last season.

3.  MARSHALL THUNDERING HERD.  It's been two years since Hassan Whiteside jumped to the NBA D-League, but somehow, improbably, Marshall is actually like, really really talented this year (for a C-USA team).  DeAndre Kane was freshman of the year last season, and Justin Coleman was stolen away from Louisville and then did this at their big not Midnight Madness event:  

And I'll just leave it at that.


4.  RICE OWLS.  You probably aren't smart enough to know this, but this is actually a really ballsy call.  Rice has been one of the worst college basketball teams in the world the last few seasons, but last year managed to win five conference games - which equaled their combined total for the previous 3 seasons.  A small step, but still a step in the right direction, and they still have Arsalan Kazemi, who is not that Lion from the Jesus movies but might be the best player in the conference outside of Memphis.  They also add a truly excellent mid-level play-making point guard in Dylan Ennis, who had offers from basically every mid-major and chose to become an Owl.  It's a down year in C-USA this season, so maybe Rice can actually make a postseason tournament.  WHAT AN ADVENTURE!

5.  TULSA GOLDEN HURRICANE.  Justin Hurtt led C-USA in scoring last season and has graduated, but it looks like Tulsa has a player already waiting to take over for him in Jordan Clarkson who scored 12 per game as a freshman last year and closed out last year with seven straight games in double-figures.  Tulsa also returns two other double figure scorers including former UCONN transfer Scottie Haralson, who is the best long-range threat on the Hurricane, and Steven Idlet who gives them an inside presence.  I might actually be underselling them a bit with that much back, but it will take a while to adjust to not having Hurtt around.  Probably one of those teams that is a lot better in February than in November. 

6.  UAB BLAZERS.  The Blazers are a lot like several other C-USA teams in that they have an awful lot of talent from last year that's no longer available - in this case their three top guards are all history - but they have an advantage over many of the other squads because they have a solid base with a couple of very good post players, including Cameron Moore who was their second leading scorer and #2 rebounder in the conference last season, and rather than relying on freshmen or transfers to fill in for the departed they have a bunch of sophomores with some experience.  I don't really see an NCAA berth here, but I wouldn't rule it out either.  I'm like Peter King.  MAYBE.

7.  SOUTHERN MISS EAGLES.  Another team dealing with some major losses, the Eagles will have to replace leading scorer and rebounder Gary Flowers as well as two of their three starting guards.  Larry Eustachy did what guys like Larry Eustachy do, and went out and grabbed a ton of JuCo players to team up with starting point guard Angelo Johnson - yes the Minnesota kid - who led the team in assists last season.  The JuCos being brought in look good with three guys ranking in the top 150 JuCo players according to Rivals, including #2 Keith DeWitt who was originally a Missouri commit, but you never know what you're getting with Juco players - don't forget this same list had Devron Bostick ranked as a top 5 player (which he could have been if Tubby knew how to use him properly - arg.)

8.  SOUTHERN METHODIST MUSTANGS.  Despite losing one of the best players in C-USA last year, Papa Dia, SMU should still be competitive thanks to four other returning starters.  Robert Nyakundi is clearly the best returner - he was second on the team with 14.3 points and 4.3 rebounds per game last season, and even though he is an excellent outside shooter, hitting 50% from three last seasons, he doesn't live out there and can score from anywhere, not to mention being an excellent rebounder.  Then there's some other guys too.

9.  UTEP MINERS.  UTEP was a pretty fun team to watch last year.  Randy Culpepper could score in bunches and I'm pretty sure is one of the all-time leading scorers for the Miners, Christian Polk had one of the most incredible games I've ever seen against Memphis in the C-USA Championship (27 pts on 11-14 shooting), Julyan Stone was a defensive standout and awesome rebounder, and Jeremy Williams was the team's third leading scorer who I don't remember  Now those guys are all gone.   Basically the whole team is new guys, either from high school or transfers, either JuCo or otherwise, and who knows that'll probably make them competitive here and there but it'll be a tough year. 

10.  TULANE GREEN WAVE.  Tulane loses three starters from last season, but the good news for them is they are at least retaining the most important two - swingman Kendall Timmons and point guard Jordan Callahan (who is probably related to that little wiener from South Dakota State).  Timmons led the team in scoring, rebounding, steals, and blocks last year and can do it all, while Callahan was second in scoring and led the team (and was fifth in C-USA) in assists, so Tulane at least has a good backcourt to build around.  Of course I'm not sure what they're building around them with, since there are only two other returnees from last year's team on the roster.  Josh Davis is a transfer from NC State where he played in all 31 games as a freshman two seasons ago, so that's a good start, and those two guards are going to be good enough to engineer at upset or two at some point this year.

11.  EAST CAROLINA PIRATES.  By ECU standards, last season was a smashing success - they beat Memphis for the first time ever, won two CUSA Tournament games, and were granted an invite to the collegeinsider.com post-season tournament, their first postseason berth since 1992.  Of course, as it goes with these kinds of programs, that was the big shot and now three of their top four players are gone to graduation and it's back to the depths of the conference for the Pirates.  Although there is some reason for optimism - ECU landed transfers from both South Carolina and Missouri.  If ECU can become an attractive "second-chance" transfer school that might be their way to climb up the C-USA pecking order.

12.  HOUSTON COUGARS.  You know what's never good?  When you go 12-18 and lose all three of your double-digit scorers.  Welcome to Houston.   The good news here, however, is that nobody really cares about this year because this is just year #2 for their new coach and he's got recruiting moving in a very good direction.  The Cougars bring in a Rivals Top 150 recruit this year in PF TaShawn Thomas (#113) and have two more on their way next season in PF Chicken Knowles (#47), who chose the Cougars over Missouri and Baylor, and an incredible get in PF Danuel House (#15) who went with Houston and spurned Arizona, Kansas, Ohio State, and Texas amongst others to become a Cougar.  Very impressive stuff here, and maybe a hint that Houston could actually survive in the Big East.

Week in Review - 01.24.2011

 Well, it's now obvious how to fix the Vikings.  Simply trade your second round pick over to Chicago for Caleb Hanie, give him the rock, and sit back and watch him destroy the league.  The guy's like the second coming of Jonathan Moxon!  Of course, if Chicago is smart they're going to demand your first round pick.  Is Hanie worth #12 overall?  I think it's pretty clear that he is.

WHO WAS AWESOME

1.  Gopher basketball.  Ok, awesome might be a bit strong here, but considering that at no point did I expect them to end up winning that game in Ann Arbor and they pulled it out semi-convincingly I can give credit where credit is due - particularly since Al Nolen was out for the entire second half.  I'm not even sure which part was most impressive for the Gophers:  Blake filling in at point guard and doing a great job (6 assists to 0 turnovers) including a couple of big baskets down the stretch, the absolute pounding they put on the boards (out-reobunded Michigan 37-11), or the quality shots they were getting that led to 63% shooting.  Just an all around excellent game.  Now let's hope Nolen isn't hurt for an significant period of time.

At this point the Gophers have to be considered a near lock to make the NCAA Tournament.  An RPI of 24 with a Strength of Schedule of 41, 3 wins over RPI top 25 teams, and just one bad loss (Virginia, RPI 121).  Absolute worst case scenario, will be an 7-11 Big 10 record, and that's if there only wins the rest of the year are home games against Northwestern, Michigan, and Penn State.  Obviously in that case they wouldn't get in, but 9-9 should do it so all they need to do is win 2 games out of @ Purdue, @ Indiana, vs. Ohio State, vs. Illinois, @ Iowa, @ Penn State, vs. Michigan State, and @ Northwestern.  That shouldn't be an issue, with or without Nolen.  I can see an 11 or 12 win season as a definite possibility, in which case the Gophers are set up for a 5 or so seed.  Perfectly placed for a first round loss to Old Dominion. 

2.  Texas Longhorns.  Quite the nice little run by the Longhorns, starting the week off with a ho-hum 21-point win over #10 ranked and previously 1-loss Texas A&M, and then followed that up by going into Allen Fieldhouse and beating undefeated and 2nd ranked Kansas by 11, ending the Jayhawks 69-game home winning streak.  I don't even think it's possible for a team to have a better week, and if you weren't totally sold on the Longhorns, and I wasn't, I don't think you can deny them any longer.  Jordan Hamilton has decided to become a stud, Tristan Thompson is a force, Gary Johnson plays a quality role, and Corey Joseph seems to be figuring it out.  They've got an outstanding inside/outside balance and could make a hell of a run in March.  Of course, Rick Barnes is still involved, so it wouldn't be shocking in the least to see them lose 10 straight and miss the tournament.  We'll see.

3.  Alabama Crimson Tide.  If you're going to make a run an your first NCAA tournament bid since 2006 you need to win some big games.  Which is exactly what Alabama did with their 2-point victory over #12 Kentucky, giving them a much needed resume boost.  They are just 11-7 overall, their losses to St. Peter's and Iowa are a bit tough to explain, and they have a pretty crappy strength of schedule so they still have a ton of work to do.  That was the last game on their schedule against a currently ranked team and they play in the crappy SEC West so a big run isn't out of the question.  They're 3-1 in conference now, so something like 12-4 isn't out of the question.  That would be enough to get them in, no doubt.  It would actually be pretty sweet to have them matched up against the Gophers, because I'd love to see a Mbakwe/JaMychal Green match-up.

4. Memphis Tigers.  There was a lot of preseason talk about whether this was the year Memphis finally lost it's stranglehold on Conference USA (at least on the rare occasions when anybody talked about C-USA) after winning it each year since 2006.  There was a lot of talk about Larry Eustacy's Southern Miss taking the crown, or maybe UTEP or UAB would finally take that next step up or perhaps Central Florida and their hot start signaled the changing times.  Well you can shut your whore mouth about all that, because Memphis beat both UAB and Southern Miss this week, both on the road, and are now tied with UTEP at the top of the standings.  Now, this Memphis team isn't anywhere near the class of Calipari's old teams, but for one week at least they made sure everybody knew they weren't done just yet.  That sentence was stupid and something a hack writer for SI.com would write.  My apologies.  Smelly pirate hooker.

5.  Jimmer Fredette.  I've avoided talking about him so far this year, mainly because everybody else is and whenever people like something I automatically hate it (see:  Brett Favre, Nickelback, or Olive Garden) but I can't ignore the elephant in the room any longer - he's really good and really mormon.  He scored 42 points on Saturday on the road at a pesky Colorado State team, giving him two 40+ games in his last three times out and is currently leading the country in scoring at 26.7 points per game.  He's also efficient, and his 48% shooting, including 41% from three, along with his 90% accuracy from the free throw stripe is a good reason why BYU is the 6th best team in the nation by offensive efficiency.  Are they an actually good team?  I'd say yes, probably, but let's wait to see what happens Wednesday against San Diego State.  I know the Jimmer is bad ass though.  Seriously, just watch this: 






WHO SUCKED

1.  Colorado Buffaloes.  Waah wah!  The DWG curse strikes again, and all the momentum and positivity and sleeper talk Colorado built up with their 3-0 start in Big 12 play has now come to a screeching halt after an epic crash and burn this week, losing both to Oklahoma and Nebraska, two of the worst teams in the Big 12 and both losses are resume killers.  The conference is strong enough where they'll have plenty of opportunities to get marquee wins and build their profile back up, but this is a pretty massive setback.  It would be like the Gophers losing to Michigan and Indiana, only if they didn't have those good wins from Puerto Rico.  My bad Colorado fans, you can blame this one on me.

2.  Gonzaga Bulldogs.  Another team who absolutely god awful week and made huge strides in tanking their at-large chances.  Gonzaga, whose overall record is now just 13-7, lost twice this week, to San Francisco and Santa Clara, both contenders in the West Coast Conference, but not the same kind of contender St. Mary's has been the last few years.  In short, the kind of teams that the Gonzagas of the past would just roll right over, but clearly this year's Zags aren't quite the same type of team.  Which is weird, because a nucleus of Steven Gray, Robert Sacre, and Elias Harris should be enough to carry them to a WCC title.  Clearly, all those other dorks I've never heard of must really, really suck.  Now, their strength of schedule was ridiculous and do have wins over Baylor, Oklahoma State, and Xavier so they'll still almost certainly get a bid, but this isn't he same kind of dangerous Gonzaga team, more like out in round 1.

3.  Kenny Boynton.  It didn't take long for me to find my most-hated player after Scottie Reynolds' graduation, so congratulations Kenny Boynton, a chucker of such epic proportions that he makes Chris Kingsbury cringe at his shot selection, Reynolds' himself chuckle at the volume of shots he puts up, and Al Nolen chuckle at his accuracy.  Boynton has shot the rock 121 times this year from beyond the arc, and has hit a whopping 30.6% (and that's after going 4-7 on Saturday), after shooting 29% last year.  This year is 81st in three-point attempts in the country, and out of those 81 players, only four have a worst shooting percentage than Boynton.  Not dissimilar to last year, when he was 28th in the country in 3-point attempts, and had the worst shooting percentage out of the top 100 attempters.  Seriously, you should watch this guy.  He's completely insane.

4. Northwestern Wildcats.  Did you freaking see that score yesterday?  I guess we can cross off "Can Northwestern make it's first NCAA Tournament" from the list of storylines for 2011.  You just can't lose at home by 32, especially to a good but not great Wisconsin team.  As it stands Northwestern's record is now 13-6, and although none of those losses classify as "bad" (margin of loss not a factor), their RPI is a dismal 69, their strength of schedule is horrendous at #122, and their best win right now is over Michigan - their only win over a top 100 RPI team.  It's just ugly, and it's exactly what they deserve for scheduling such a terrible non-conference slate in a year where they knew they were trying to make a run for an NCAA bid.  Terrible.  Just terrible.

5.  Central Florida Knights.  Hey, remember when UCF started out all hot and were 14-0 and beat Florida and Miami and everyone was "OMG Michael Jordan's kid is single-handedly making UCF into an awesome team" and nobody would ever shut up about it and it was just like John Madden/Brett Favre love-fest and everybody was giving out handjobs?  Remember that?  Well suck it, liberal media, because UCF sucks and Jordan's kid sucks, and you suck.  They're now 1-4 in C-USA after losing to East Carolina and Rice, two of the absolute worst teams in the conference, this week and your boyfriend Marcus Jordan was a combined 3-14 shooting in the two games and probably got his ass beat by his dad because of his losing.  So maybe we shouldn't all be so desperate to turn something into a cute little story when nothing has even happened yet.  And speaking of cute, there are lots of good pictures of UCF fans out there:

 

NCAA Hoops Preview: CONFERENCE USA

Calipari is gone, taking most of an incredible recruiting class with him, and Memphis lost enough talent to be a top 10 team all on their own, meanwhile three other C-USA teams are geared up for a run at the title.  What this means is that looking at this conference is not as simple as penciling in Memphis for the first time in a whole lot of years.  It's wide open.



1. MEMPHIS.  It was very tempting to pick one of the other schools that look poised to knock off the Tigers, but don't forget the guys they have coming back were still signed by Calipari when he could get nearly anyone he wanted, you just don't remember because they were behind so much other talent.  Wes Witherspoon is a 6-8 combo guard/forward play anywhere do anything type guy, and he was #34 on the Rivals 150 when he came out.  Junior guards Willie Kemp and Doneal Mack were #s 53 and 47 when they came out, and forward Pierre Niles was #117.  And don't forget Elliot Williams who transferred from Duke - he was #16.  So yeah, there's plenty gone, but there's still plenty around.   

2.  TULSA.  If you were going to put up a blueprint for a mid-major to make some noise in a season, the Golden Hurricane would be it.  Senior point guard who can score and control a game?  Check, Ben Uzoh.  Monster center who dominates the paint, offensively and defensively?  Check, Jerome Jordan.  A bunch of juniors and seniors who are quality role players and know their responsibilites?  Yep, all over the place.  They have gotten a little press already (I think Katz or somebody had them on their early Top 25), and it's worth noting that the C-USA tournament is in Tulsa this year.

3.  UTEP.  I almost had the Miners in first (which explains why I had a UTEP photo at the ready), but then I remembered that I was mostly putting them there because I have an irrational love of Derrick Caracter, the fat discipline problem who got booted from Louisville - yes, he's at UTEP now.  If he has it together, they will be very tough on the front line, and also return Randy Culpepper, a 17.5 point per game scorer who, although being very Robet Vaden-like, really seemed to hit his stride in the Miners' run to the CBI championship game.

4.  HOUSTON.  I'm not a huge fan of the Cougs this year, but any time a team returns two 18+ ppg senior guards you at least have to pay attention.  Of course, they also lose all the size they had without much coming back to replace it, but you know Penders can coach, you know they're going to play up tempo, and you know they will probably give a few teams fits this year.  Houston is playing in the Great Alaskan Shootout this year, which will be a good litmus test to see where they stand.

5.  MARSHALL.  Randy Moss U returns four starters from last season's 6th place team, although they do lose their top scorer.  The Thundering Herd's strength lies in the backcourt, where they get most of their scoring including Chris Lutz who scored 37 against Tulane and recently won a roster spot on the Phillipines' National Team (note:  I have no idea how impressive this is or isn't.)  Marshall also brings in the best recruit in C-USA not going to Memphis in center Hassan Whiteside (#87 rivals 150), a 6-11 center who should compliment the perimeter guys, although it sounds like his academics might not be in order.

6.  TULANE.  At this point it's now a total crapshoot, as the remaining teams are all pretty much bottom of the barrel.  The Green Wave get the nod at the top of the scrap heap simply because they are the best defensive team of the bunch, and they return a three-year do everything starter at point guard in Kevin Sims.  They also add Juco transfer wing Aaron Holmes, who was ranked #117 on Rivals list coming out of high school in 2006.

7.  SOUTHERN METHODIST.   Slightly better than the rest due to a returning backcourt of Paul McCoy and Derek Williams, who averaged over 25 points between the two of them last year and both of whom had positive assist-to-turnover ratios, a rarity amongst the guards in the bottom tier of this conference.  They also return power forward and former transfer from Georgia Tech Mouhammad Faye, who closed out last season with four straight games scoring in double figures and played for Senegal in the FIBA Africa Championships, averaging 17 points per game.  Oh, and if you were expecting Matt Doherty to turn SMU around through recruiting, it ain't happening thus far.

8.  SOUTHERN MISS.  Partyboy Larry Eustachy seemed to have the Golden Eagles moving in the right direction, but then 3-time All C-USA guard Jeremy Wise decided to jump into the NBA draft (note:  he wasn't drafted) and that knocks the team back down a peg.  With three other starters gone, the new talent Eustachy is bringing in has to help immediately.  Minneapolis boy Angelo Johnson will likely start at the point right away, and there are three new JuCo players who are all ranked in the top 60 by Juco Junction, with Gary Flowers ranked #1 in the country.  As with all Jucos, you never know what you're gonna get.

9.  CENTRAL FLORIDA.  UCF loses Jermaine Taylor, last year's C-USA scoring leader at 26.2 ppg and returns not much outside of 3-point specialist Isaac Sosa, who shot 45% behind the line last year to lead the conference.  The Knights do bring in a nice class, including a trio of 3-star players who collectively had offers from teams such as South Carolina, Alabama, Providence, Iowa, Stanford, and Butler.  One of the newcomers will bring increased media attention - Michael Jordan's son Marcus.  At least until he quits like his quitter brother.

10.  RICE.  Do you know who Rice's coach is?  It's Ben Braun.  The same Ben Braun who had a good amount of success with Cal not that long ago.  It's going to be quite a task to turn the Owls around (they were 10-22 last year, Braun's first season), but he's already starting to make inroads.  He signed a couple of three-stars this year (no small feat for Rice) in PG Tamir Jackson, who also had an offer from UAB, and power forward and likely terrorist Arsalan Kazemi from Iran, who had offers from Cincinnati and Maryland and may or may not be related to the lion from Narnia.  It's still a long road ahead, but looking to get better.

10.  UAB.  Everything was aligned for UAB to make a run at Memphis last year, and at least make the NCAA tournament.  Oops.  And now everybody is gone, with the Blazers losing more than 75% of their scoring from last season and 90% of their shots with Robert Vaden finally graduating.  The recruiting class fell apart as well.  UAB had a verbal from both Rivals #2 DeMarcus Cousins and were thought to be in the lead for hometown PG and #23 prospect Eric Bledsoe, but both ending up signing with Kentucky, as Mike Davis still can't beat Calipari.  After losing out on almost every other recruiting battle, the cupboard is pretty bare.  Transfer Elijah Milsap, who I think is Paul's brother, transferred in from LA-Lafayette and will pretty much instantly become the Blazers' best player.

12.  EAST CAROLINA.  One of the worst defensive teams in all of college basketball last year (ranking 336/344 in defensive efficiency) did very little to address that, at least in terms of signing anybody of relevance.  They also lost their two best players to graduation, with not much behind them to step up.  The bright side is they have junior point guard Brock Young who was second in the country in assists last season with 7.6 per game - the only problem is there is nobody left to score.


So there you have it.  Will C-USA be a multi-bid league this year?  Will Memphis finally be dethroned or can Josh Pastner pick up right where Calipari left off?  Has Derrick Caracter finally grown up?  With coaches like Tom Penders, Ben Braun, Matt Doherty, and Larry Eustachy in the conference, when will it's national profile start to rise?  Will Arsalan Kazemi blow up a stadium?

It's going to be an interesting year in C-USA.