DWG's NCAA Basketball Preview: Teams #52-47

I know plenty of people are busy tonight with the debate and the Tigers/Yankees game, but I can only watch the debates 30 seconds at a time without falling asleep or dying of self-inflicted gangrene and it seems silly to write about the Tigers/Yankees game because I don't really feel like writing "Verlander gets another stupid Yankee out easily" twenty-seven times.  Thus insteadly here are some NCAA Basketball previews.  I hope you enjoy them.

I'm just kidding.  I really don't give a crap.  I know you're reading this at work and have nothing better to do with your time anyway.

52.  Illinois State Redbirds.  Creighton, Wichita State, and Northern Iowa seem to get most of the Missouri Valley headlines and hype, but this could end up being Illinois State's big year.  Last year's team took Creighton down to the wire in the MVC Championship before losing in overtime, then beat Ole Miss in the NIT before falling to eventual champ Stanford (also in OT).  That same team returns pretty much intact (including stud Jackie Carmichael who, according to anything you read on ISU on the internet "wowed" people at the LeBron Skills Academy).  They do lose their starting point guard from last season who transferred to SMU to tag along with the Redbirds' coach last year, and nobody's sure if they have a player who can fill that role capably, but who cares?  Their nickname is the Redbirds for christ's sake, and if the baseball playoffs have taught us anything (other than the Yankees suck) it's that Redbirds never die.

51.  Marshall Thundering Herd.  Marshall hasn't been to the NCAA Tournament since 1987 and has never won a game, but they've been awfully close lately which seems interesting or something I guess.  Last year they were in the hunt until a killer loss to a terrible ECU team knocked them out of the at-large running and then they were crushed in the C-USA Tournament Championship game by Memphis.  Two years prior they came out of the blocks at 15-2 before sucking the rest of the year.  Will this be the year they finally break through?  No.

50.  Belmont Bruins.  Belmont takes a big step up in the world this year, shifting from the Atlantic Sun to the Ohio Valley which means capturing an at-large bid goes from impossible to simply unlikely.  And once again, this will be the same kind of hyper-efficient team that takes care of the basketball and shoots well, but likely lacks the athleticism to truly compete with the big-time programs and really good teams.  And once again they'll probably end up in the NCAA Tournament matched up against somebody better, and everyone (myself included) will talk themselves into how Belmont could be a sweet 16 sleeper and end up picking them to beat a #4 seed in round one only to watch in horror as they get blown out by 20 and a have to put a big red X on my bracket before the first games of day 1 are out.  Looking forward to it already.

49.  Arkansas Razorbacks.  What's the best way to rebound from John Pelphrey trying to run the program straight into the ground?  Hire the sweet Mike Anderson, Nolan Richardson's protege, and let the Hogs run wild.  It didn't quite kick in for year 1, but based on his track record at UAB and Missouri I'd imagine we'll see Arkansas back in the tournament in a year or two.  Guard play is the key to running Anderson's system and Arkansas is plenty loaded here.  B.J. Young, who flirted a bit with the Gophers (while, they more threw themselves at him and he didn't say no right away - like your sister at a kegger) had a monster freshman year and probably could have gone pro but stayed on for another year, and he's got plenty of other perimeter help.  You know fun Missouri was to watch the last several years?  Yeah, that's coming to Fayetteville.  I wish I could bet on things like, Arkansas will be ranked in the top 10 at some point in the next 3 years.  I'd totally win a bunch of money.  Just like how Snacks will owe me fifty bucks when the Royals win the AL Central sometime by 2014 (a bet we made 2 years ago).  Yeah.  It's coming.  I've already spent that money investing in pumpkins.  They've been going up the month of October.  I figure if I hold those babies until January and then cash out.  BAM!  BOATLOADS!

48.  Colorado State Rams.  I don't think anyone would dispute that losing Tim Miles (to Nebraska) is a blow considering how he builds programs, but if you're going to lose a guy like that (and it was inevitable) you could do a whole lot worse than hiring Larry Eustachy.  I know it's easy to think about the scandal where he was busted partying with young college chicks but let's be honest who wouldn't want to do that, but don't forget the guy is a damn good coach.  This is the same guy who just took a garbage program in Southern Miss to the NCAA Tournament last year and had lots of success at Iowa State, and he's also the guy who started Utah State's run of brilliance back in 1998 (hadn't been to the tournament in 10 years).  And now he inherits a team that made the tournament last season and he gets most of the team back, plus Colton Iverson.  Eustachy and Iverson!  Count me in.  That's like a modern day Balki and Cousin Larry.

47.  Cal Bears.  These guys could end up with one of the best backcourts in the Pac-12 and, sad and horrifying as it is, part of the reason is Justin Cobbs.  Freed from the restraints of Tubby's molasses style offense Cobbs ended up averaging 12.6 points (16th in the conference) and 5.0 assists (2nd) per game last season, and he's probably not even the teams best guard - that would be Allen Crabbe.  They have to figure out how to replace two big losses including their lead point guard and their best post player, but having two good guards and playing in the shitbox Pac-12 pretty much assures Cal will at least be in the running for an NCAA bid.  Mother-effing Cobbs.


Previous:
Teams #68-60
Teams #59-53

NCAA Basketball Preview: C-USA

 So what's the deal now?  Conference USA is merging with The Mountain West, but only for football or something like that?  Seriously, I can't keep all this crap straight.  Too hard.  I need a flow chart or a Venn diagram or just someone to come sit with me for 20 minutes and explain what's going on.

I guess it doesn't really matter though because that's football and everybody knows basketball is way more important, and I don't think that merger or whatever touches hoops in any way, so C-USA is safe.  Well, kind of safe, as long as you don't count Houston and UCF going to the Big East (I think UCF is part of that, right?), and I don't know if that's like, just football or what.  I think it's a full on move.

Oh never mind.  Let's just get to the boring previews.

1.  MEMPHIS TIGERS.  After a couple of meh seasons, at least by Memphis standards, the Tigers are most definitely back and despite what's looking like and "up" version of C-USA this year it wouldn't be stunning to see them run the table in conference play.  They lose only one contributor from last year's team, which means at this point the team is loaded with ten guys on the roster who were Rivals Top 150s when they came to college.  Actually, with seven players who averaged between 6.6 and 12.3 points per game back from last season (and nobody over that 12.3) this reminds me a lot of those Calipari teams where they were just loaded with super athletic, super talented, interchangeable parts.  Good thing for those who hate Memphis that Pastner is looking like he's on the same "game coach" level as Calipari.

2.  CENTRAL FLORIDA KNIGHTS.  There are some very interesting things happening with UCF, and none of them involve either of the overrated Jordan brothers.  The most interesting thing, to me, is Keith Clanton, who made a huge leap in his sophomore year and was among the C-USA leaders in points, blocks, boards, and FG %.   Guy is a monster, and the Knights will be able to put Michael Chandler, the fifth best incoming center in the country according to Rivals, right next to him this year - and he picked UCF over Kentucky.  With those two, the Jordans, their starting point guard back, and some talented transfers, UCF has a very good chance at grabbing an NCAA bid - or starting out hot as fire and then collapsing like a dying star like last season.

3.  MARSHALL THUNDERING HERD.  It's been two years since Hassan Whiteside jumped to the NBA D-League, but somehow, improbably, Marshall is actually like, really really talented this year (for a C-USA team).  DeAndre Kane was freshman of the year last season, and Justin Coleman was stolen away from Louisville and then did this at their big not Midnight Madness event:  

And I'll just leave it at that.


4.  RICE OWLS.  You probably aren't smart enough to know this, but this is actually a really ballsy call.  Rice has been one of the worst college basketball teams in the world the last few seasons, but last year managed to win five conference games - which equaled their combined total for the previous 3 seasons.  A small step, but still a step in the right direction, and they still have Arsalan Kazemi, who is not that Lion from the Jesus movies but might be the best player in the conference outside of Memphis.  They also add a truly excellent mid-level play-making point guard in Dylan Ennis, who had offers from basically every mid-major and chose to become an Owl.  It's a down year in C-USA this season, so maybe Rice can actually make a postseason tournament.  WHAT AN ADVENTURE!

5.  TULSA GOLDEN HURRICANE.  Justin Hurtt led C-USA in scoring last season and has graduated, but it looks like Tulsa has a player already waiting to take over for him in Jordan Clarkson who scored 12 per game as a freshman last year and closed out last year with seven straight games in double-figures.  Tulsa also returns two other double figure scorers including former UCONN transfer Scottie Haralson, who is the best long-range threat on the Hurricane, and Steven Idlet who gives them an inside presence.  I might actually be underselling them a bit with that much back, but it will take a while to adjust to not having Hurtt around.  Probably one of those teams that is a lot better in February than in November. 

6.  UAB BLAZERS.  The Blazers are a lot like several other C-USA teams in that they have an awful lot of talent from last year that's no longer available - in this case their three top guards are all history - but they have an advantage over many of the other squads because they have a solid base with a couple of very good post players, including Cameron Moore who was their second leading scorer and #2 rebounder in the conference last season, and rather than relying on freshmen or transfers to fill in for the departed they have a bunch of sophomores with some experience.  I don't really see an NCAA berth here, but I wouldn't rule it out either.  I'm like Peter King.  MAYBE.

7.  SOUTHERN MISS EAGLES.  Another team dealing with some major losses, the Eagles will have to replace leading scorer and rebounder Gary Flowers as well as two of their three starting guards.  Larry Eustachy did what guys like Larry Eustachy do, and went out and grabbed a ton of JuCo players to team up with starting point guard Angelo Johnson - yes the Minnesota kid - who led the team in assists last season.  The JuCos being brought in look good with three guys ranking in the top 150 JuCo players according to Rivals, including #2 Keith DeWitt who was originally a Missouri commit, but you never know what you're getting with Juco players - don't forget this same list had Devron Bostick ranked as a top 5 player (which he could have been if Tubby knew how to use him properly - arg.)

8.  SOUTHERN METHODIST MUSTANGS.  Despite losing one of the best players in C-USA last year, Papa Dia, SMU should still be competitive thanks to four other returning starters.  Robert Nyakundi is clearly the best returner - he was second on the team with 14.3 points and 4.3 rebounds per game last season, and even though he is an excellent outside shooter, hitting 50% from three last seasons, he doesn't live out there and can score from anywhere, not to mention being an excellent rebounder.  Then there's some other guys too.

9.  UTEP MINERS.  UTEP was a pretty fun team to watch last year.  Randy Culpepper could score in bunches and I'm pretty sure is one of the all-time leading scorers for the Miners, Christian Polk had one of the most incredible games I've ever seen against Memphis in the C-USA Championship (27 pts on 11-14 shooting), Julyan Stone was a defensive standout and awesome rebounder, and Jeremy Williams was the team's third leading scorer who I don't remember  Now those guys are all gone.   Basically the whole team is new guys, either from high school or transfers, either JuCo or otherwise, and who knows that'll probably make them competitive here and there but it'll be a tough year. 

10.  TULANE GREEN WAVE.  Tulane loses three starters from last season, but the good news for them is they are at least retaining the most important two - swingman Kendall Timmons and point guard Jordan Callahan (who is probably related to that little wiener from South Dakota State).  Timmons led the team in scoring, rebounding, steals, and blocks last year and can do it all, while Callahan was second in scoring and led the team (and was fifth in C-USA) in assists, so Tulane at least has a good backcourt to build around.  Of course I'm not sure what they're building around them with, since there are only two other returnees from last year's team on the roster.  Josh Davis is a transfer from NC State where he played in all 31 games as a freshman two seasons ago, so that's a good start, and those two guards are going to be good enough to engineer at upset or two at some point this year.

11.  EAST CAROLINA PIRATES.  By ECU standards, last season was a smashing success - they beat Memphis for the first time ever, won two CUSA Tournament games, and were granted an invite to the collegeinsider.com post-season tournament, their first postseason berth since 1992.  Of course, as it goes with these kinds of programs, that was the big shot and now three of their top four players are gone to graduation and it's back to the depths of the conference for the Pirates.  Although there is some reason for optimism - ECU landed transfers from both South Carolina and Missouri.  If ECU can become an attractive "second-chance" transfer school that might be their way to climb up the C-USA pecking order.

12.  HOUSTON COUGARS.  You know what's never good?  When you go 12-18 and lose all three of your double-digit scorers.  Welcome to Houston.   The good news here, however, is that nobody really cares about this year because this is just year #2 for their new coach and he's got recruiting moving in a very good direction.  The Cougars bring in a Rivals Top 150 recruit this year in PF TaShawn Thomas (#113) and have two more on their way next season in PF Chicken Knowles (#47), who chose the Cougars over Missouri and Baylor, and an incredible get in PF Danuel House (#15) who went with Houston and spurned Arizona, Kansas, Ohio State, and Texas amongst others to become a Cougar.  Very impressive stuff here, and maybe a hint that Houston could actually survive in the Big East.

NCAA Hoops Preview: CONFERENCE USA

Calipari is gone, taking most of an incredible recruiting class with him, and Memphis lost enough talent to be a top 10 team all on their own, meanwhile three other C-USA teams are geared up for a run at the title.  What this means is that looking at this conference is not as simple as penciling in Memphis for the first time in a whole lot of years.  It's wide open.



1. MEMPHIS.  It was very tempting to pick one of the other schools that look poised to knock off the Tigers, but don't forget the guys they have coming back were still signed by Calipari when he could get nearly anyone he wanted, you just don't remember because they were behind so much other talent.  Wes Witherspoon is a 6-8 combo guard/forward play anywhere do anything type guy, and he was #34 on the Rivals 150 when he came out.  Junior guards Willie Kemp and Doneal Mack were #s 53 and 47 when they came out, and forward Pierre Niles was #117.  And don't forget Elliot Williams who transferred from Duke - he was #16.  So yeah, there's plenty gone, but there's still plenty around.   

2.  TULSA.  If you were going to put up a blueprint for a mid-major to make some noise in a season, the Golden Hurricane would be it.  Senior point guard who can score and control a game?  Check, Ben Uzoh.  Monster center who dominates the paint, offensively and defensively?  Check, Jerome Jordan.  A bunch of juniors and seniors who are quality role players and know their responsibilites?  Yep, all over the place.  They have gotten a little press already (I think Katz or somebody had them on their early Top 25), and it's worth noting that the C-USA tournament is in Tulsa this year.

3.  UTEP.  I almost had the Miners in first (which explains why I had a UTEP photo at the ready), but then I remembered that I was mostly putting them there because I have an irrational love of Derrick Caracter, the fat discipline problem who got booted from Louisville - yes, he's at UTEP now.  If he has it together, they will be very tough on the front line, and also return Randy Culpepper, a 17.5 point per game scorer who, although being very Robet Vaden-like, really seemed to hit his stride in the Miners' run to the CBI championship game.

4.  HOUSTON.  I'm not a huge fan of the Cougs this year, but any time a team returns two 18+ ppg senior guards you at least have to pay attention.  Of course, they also lose all the size they had without much coming back to replace it, but you know Penders can coach, you know they're going to play up tempo, and you know they will probably give a few teams fits this year.  Houston is playing in the Great Alaskan Shootout this year, which will be a good litmus test to see where they stand.

5.  MARSHALL.  Randy Moss U returns four starters from last season's 6th place team, although they do lose their top scorer.  The Thundering Herd's strength lies in the backcourt, where they get most of their scoring including Chris Lutz who scored 37 against Tulane and recently won a roster spot on the Phillipines' National Team (note:  I have no idea how impressive this is or isn't.)  Marshall also brings in the best recruit in C-USA not going to Memphis in center Hassan Whiteside (#87 rivals 150), a 6-11 center who should compliment the perimeter guys, although it sounds like his academics might not be in order.

6.  TULANE.  At this point it's now a total crapshoot, as the remaining teams are all pretty much bottom of the barrel.  The Green Wave get the nod at the top of the scrap heap simply because they are the best defensive team of the bunch, and they return a three-year do everything starter at point guard in Kevin Sims.  They also add Juco transfer wing Aaron Holmes, who was ranked #117 on Rivals list coming out of high school in 2006.

7.  SOUTHERN METHODIST.   Slightly better than the rest due to a returning backcourt of Paul McCoy and Derek Williams, who averaged over 25 points between the two of them last year and both of whom had positive assist-to-turnover ratios, a rarity amongst the guards in the bottom tier of this conference.  They also return power forward and former transfer from Georgia Tech Mouhammad Faye, who closed out last season with four straight games scoring in double figures and played for Senegal in the FIBA Africa Championships, averaging 17 points per game.  Oh, and if you were expecting Matt Doherty to turn SMU around through recruiting, it ain't happening thus far.

8.  SOUTHERN MISS.  Partyboy Larry Eustachy seemed to have the Golden Eagles moving in the right direction, but then 3-time All C-USA guard Jeremy Wise decided to jump into the NBA draft (note:  he wasn't drafted) and that knocks the team back down a peg.  With three other starters gone, the new talent Eustachy is bringing in has to help immediately.  Minneapolis boy Angelo Johnson will likely start at the point right away, and there are three new JuCo players who are all ranked in the top 60 by Juco Junction, with Gary Flowers ranked #1 in the country.  As with all Jucos, you never know what you're gonna get.

9.  CENTRAL FLORIDA.  UCF loses Jermaine Taylor, last year's C-USA scoring leader at 26.2 ppg and returns not much outside of 3-point specialist Isaac Sosa, who shot 45% behind the line last year to lead the conference.  The Knights do bring in a nice class, including a trio of 3-star players who collectively had offers from teams such as South Carolina, Alabama, Providence, Iowa, Stanford, and Butler.  One of the newcomers will bring increased media attention - Michael Jordan's son Marcus.  At least until he quits like his quitter brother.

10.  RICE.  Do you know who Rice's coach is?  It's Ben Braun.  The same Ben Braun who had a good amount of success with Cal not that long ago.  It's going to be quite a task to turn the Owls around (they were 10-22 last year, Braun's first season), but he's already starting to make inroads.  He signed a couple of three-stars this year (no small feat for Rice) in PG Tamir Jackson, who also had an offer from UAB, and power forward and likely terrorist Arsalan Kazemi from Iran, who had offers from Cincinnati and Maryland and may or may not be related to the lion from Narnia.  It's still a long road ahead, but looking to get better.

10.  UAB.  Everything was aligned for UAB to make a run at Memphis last year, and at least make the NCAA tournament.  Oops.  And now everybody is gone, with the Blazers losing more than 75% of their scoring from last season and 90% of their shots with Robert Vaden finally graduating.  The recruiting class fell apart as well.  UAB had a verbal from both Rivals #2 DeMarcus Cousins and were thought to be in the lead for hometown PG and #23 prospect Eric Bledsoe, but both ending up signing with Kentucky, as Mike Davis still can't beat Calipari.  After losing out on almost every other recruiting battle, the cupboard is pretty bare.  Transfer Elijah Milsap, who I think is Paul's brother, transferred in from LA-Lafayette and will pretty much instantly become the Blazers' best player.

12.  EAST CAROLINA.  One of the worst defensive teams in all of college basketball last year (ranking 336/344 in defensive efficiency) did very little to address that, at least in terms of signing anybody of relevance.  They also lost their two best players to graduation, with not much behind them to step up.  The bright side is they have junior point guard Brock Young who was second in the country in assists last season with 7.6 per game - the only problem is there is nobody left to score.


So there you have it.  Will C-USA be a multi-bid league this year?  Will Memphis finally be dethroned or can Josh Pastner pick up right where Calipari left off?  Has Derrick Caracter finally grown up?  With coaches like Tom Penders, Ben Braun, Matt Doherty, and Larry Eustachy in the conference, when will it's national profile start to rise?  Will Arsalan Kazemi blow up a stadium?

It's going to be an interesting year in C-USA.