Wolves NBA Draft Notes

The NBA Draft is June 27th and the Timberwolves have the 9th and 26th picks. Let's look at what might be there at #9.

Flip Saunders has made it no secret that he has a burning desire for Indiana shooting guard Victor Oladipo.  After working out some players on Thursday he hopped a plane to go see Oladipo in DC.  Everyone knows that Oladipo is a good defender, but he's been climbing mock drafts based on his improvements in his offensive game.  Oladipo would be a great fit for the Wolves, but is it better to try and get a big man at 9 and wait on a shooter until 26 given the depth there in this draft?  Or do they just take the best available guy?  Or dangle Williams in a deal to move up to get "their guy"?

Here's a vid of Oladipo scoring against no defenders:

 
BTW, I like those drills where they whack on the guy with pads while he's in the lane.  Good stuff.

So, what do the Wolves need besides having everyone heal up and stop doing knuckle pushups?  Here's the roster and their contract length:

PG:
Ricky Rubio through 14/15
Luke Ridnour through 13/14
JJ Barea through 14/15

SG:
Alexey Shved through 15/16
Malcolm Lee through 13/14

SF:
Andrei Kirilenko PLAYER OPTION
Chase Budinger FREE AGENT

PF:
Kevin Love through 15/16
Derrick Williams through 14/15
Dante Cunningham TEAM OPTION

C:
Nikola Pekovic FREE AGENT
Greg Stiemsma TEAM OPTION

Other FA/Release: Brandon Roy, Josh Howard, Louis Amundson, Wil Conroy, Mickael Gelabale

Official free agency negotiations don't begin until July 1, so the Wolves have some opportunity to be flexible in the draft.  Needs still appear to be a shooting guard that can defend and shoot from the outside and a big man.  Budinger is a nice option presuming he can bounce back, but I certainly wouldn't begrudge the Wolves trying to get a legit SF as Kirilenko plays a lot of 4 and is no spring chicken.  Ridnour and Barea are both serviceable players as backups at the point -- unfortunately they've been pressed into much more service than you'd like.  Shved also can play some point, so I don't think it's a huge need.  There's some depth at the 4, even if Williams is moved.  I refuse to list Williams as a 3 since he's proven he can't do it.

For the bigs, Nikola Pekovic is pretty much a must sign even though he'll cost the Wolves a lot of cash.  Stiemsma showed some energy and defense at times, but I was surprised at how many mistakes he makes on the court as well.  I do like his shot blocking, but if we score someone in the draft in might be worth saving the money it costs to bring him back.  The Wolves have until July 17th to decide, so they can draft and even consider potential free agent options before making a move.

Looking at a bunch of mock drafts the consensus is Oladipo will be gone by the #9 spot.  I've seen a couple of 8s, a 6 and even a 5 pick for him. If he's there at 8 would the Pistons move back a pick for the #26 selection?  Maybe.  Is it worth it?  I lean a little more towards keeping the #26 and taking two stabs in a draft that seems to have a big group of guys that aren't separated by much.

For the #9, the mock draft group-thinkers almost all think that CJ McCollum out of Lehigh is the pick.  McCollum is terrific with the ball in his hands and can shoot (51% from 3).  He even got a Stephen Curry comparison from Hoopshype.com.  He's also a big time transition scorer, which fits well with Rubio.  What he doesn't have is size (6'3") and he's not much of a defender.  He's also a senior, so what you see might be what you get.  Here's an incredibly long youtube clip about him:

The odd man out on the four mocks I looked at had the Wolves taking Shabazz Muhammad, the 6'6" shooter out of UCLA.  They must have assumed that Wolves brass where watching his 6 of 18 performance against the Gophers in the NCAA Tournament.  Or the fact that he's now magically 20 instead of 19 years old.  In other mocks I reviewed he's at #17 (twice) and #13th.  Most consider him not an amazing athlete like an Oladipo, but he's a high volume shooter and some believe he still has upside.  He also has Tourette's Syndrome which is pretty kickass.  He's also a lefty with a beard, so obviously he's the next James Harden.

Another wing to consider is Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, a sophomore out of Georgia.  Caldwell-Pope is right in that 9-13 range at the end of the lottery by most mocks.  I've seen him in the 10 spot to Portland a few times.  Paul Allen (Blazers owner, not homer Vikings guy) even attended a workout.  Kentavious is a very good shooter and at 6'5" 205, he's got decent size.  He's also a pretty great rebounder, notching 7.1 a game; which means he's not afraid to mix it up at least I guess.  KCP is also considered a very good defender and kicked butt in speed and agility drills.  I dig him and wouldn't mind him at #9 one bit. 

There are also some big men that are near the #9 spot in the mock drafts.  The bonus of taking a big instead of a wing is there are a lot of wings later in the draft that could be had at #26.  However, if Nikola is signed and delivered, the SG/SF is the greater need.  Here's a quick look at a few big men:

Zeller doesn't need to see to dunk

Cody Zeller,  6'11" Soph Indiana -- Zeller has been previously thought of as a sure fire top 5 pick, but his stock has slid in some circles. He looks like a big goofus but he's incredibly athletic for his size.  He recorded a 33.5" standing vertical leap, which is like crazy high.  In fact, it's the best by anyone over 6'8" in more than ten years.  He shoots a nice jumper and runs like a mofo.  He'd be a great change of speed with Pek banging around in the middle.

Steven Adams 7' Frosh Pitt -- Adams is a big bad man in the middle.  The seven footer clocks in with a 7'4.5" wingspan and had a great combine where he flashed a pretty nice jumper.  He also has gigantic hands. Adams is another player I'd be ok with in the 9 spot. 

Lucas Nogueria (Bebe) 7' Spain -- Bebe has been linked to Philly at #11 in a few mock drafts after a recent good showing at the Eurocamp.  He's athletic for a man with a 7'6" wingspan. At just 220 pounds his body is not quite ready for the NBA.  He's about as high risk, high reward as it gets as he was previously though of as a stud in the making and then had a poor showing in 2011 at Eurocamp.  I like the untapped potential, but not at #9 overall.

Kelly Olynyk 6'11" Junior Gonzaga -- I've seen Olynyk in the #15 range in mocks so I'm throwing him on this list.  It could be the goofy hair, but he has a bit of a Luis Scola vibe to him.  The NBADraft.net comparison is Fabricio Oberto, so there's that.  He's getting a lot of "skilled" big man comments on the internet and he backed that up with 18.1ppg on 66% shooting.   In addition to looking goofy he also has a freakishly short wingspan for his height.  He's 6'10.75" without shoes and has 6'9.75" arms. 


So there you have it.  I'm at least 72% sure that one of these guys is on the Timberwolves come draft night (barring a trade).  I'll take a look at the #26 pick next week.

Wait, what? Gophers beat who?

Wow.  That was unexpected.  I'm pretty sure I can't write anything too intelligent or insightful right now since I was pretty much watching that game on pure emotion, but I can throw down a few thoughts because if you're like me you are just going to spend all day at work reading everything you can find about the game.  So I'll sit here with my celebratory cognac (fine, vodka and coke) and write a couple of thoughts.  Also, it's not coke, it's R.C.   *hangs head in shame

[NOTE:  This formatting is horrendous.  I'd fix it but I have no idea how.]

• This was the Gopher team we saw in the early season.  If they can play like this to close out the year they're a sweet 16 contender again.
• This wasn't a case of Indiana playing poorly, the Gophers simply outplayed them.
• I thought Dre Hollins would be the one to step up and carry the team if anybody did, but no question it was Mbakwe setting the tone in the first half.  Remember last year at the beginning of the season when the Gophers would spend three quarters of the game struggling against crappy teams and then Mbakwe would be all like "ok, I'm getting every missed shot now" and carry them back to a win?  Yeah, that's what he was again tonight.  Was amazing.
• Really, nobody played poorly though.  Even those who didn't play well overall made huge plays at some point.  Hollins, Hollins, and Rodney all shot poorly, but Dre hit some huge shots down the stretch (including that monster three down the stretch which, right before, I told the Bear (who came to the game with me) that if the Gophers hit a 3 on that possession I'd do something unspeakable to him so well, there's that), Austin had a couple of huge plays, and Rodney had that big Hakim Warrick style block on an Oladipo three as time was running out.  Everybody came up with a big play at some point.  Everybody.  Even the 5 second call on Indiana came when Mo Walker was in the game.  He had nothing to do with it, but he was there.
• Some will say this is enough to guarantee the Gophers a tournament berth no matter what happens the rest of the way.  I'm not quite that certain, but at this point I'm confident if they can beat either Penn State at home OR Nebraska on the road that will do it.  Obviously the more wins they can get the better the seed, but as long as the Gophers don't go 0-4 to finish up (including the B10 tournament) it should be the easiest Selection Sunday in years.  Decades, really.
• I've gone on record as saying I'm terrified of a Mo Walker/Elliott Elliason starting front court next season.  No longer.  I'm not exactly fired up about it, but Elliason has done enough go convince me at worst he can be a Trevor Winter type, and he has two years to get better.  Walker has shown enough flashes of potential to at least temper my scaredness.  With Hollins, Hollins, and Coleman still going to be around those two just have to be not terrible for the team to at least be in contention for an NCAA bid.  Still hoping and believing in a Chuck Buggs breakout.  Believe with me.
• Speaking of believing, man did whoever is in charge of music botch the "Don't Stop Believing" music in the final minute or so of the game.  Started it too late and never even got to the chorus.  Horrible.
• Cody Zeller is every bit as good as advertised.  He is smooth in the paint and has a bunch of really good moves he can go to on the block.  He's also a bit soft, however, and disappeared after Mbakwe, Elliason, and Williams reminded him that this is the Big Ten and pushing people and elbows and what not is the norm.  I heard someone mention that Indiana stopped looking for Zeller, but really Zeller stopped posting up hard in the second half.  Sorry, but it's true.
• Also Victor Oladipo is ridiculous.  If I had any criticism of Indiana tonight it's that they didn't just iso Oladipo every single time they had the ball, because Joe Coleman was the primary defender on him tonight and I'm sorry I like Coleman but he is a horrendous defender.  Oladipo beat him to the paint every time he tried, and there were a couple of times I watched Coleman stand still as if rooted to the ground when he should have been providing some weak side help.  Again, I like the guy a lot, but he's a horrific defender.
• That being said, overall the defense was outstanding tonight.  Holding both Watford and Zeller to single digit scoring was huge, especially because Watford picked up six of his eight on shitty late threes that were half luck.  Plus shutting down Hulls after his huge first half was big, and it happened because of more awareness of where he was and just a swarming defense that refused to give up good looks.  We saw that kind of defense earlier in the year but it has since bailed, good to see it again. 
• I haven't seen video of the play but Will Sheehey should be ashamed of himself if he really flopped there in the last 30 seconds or so, looking for a cheap flagrant against Dre Hollins.  Crean should be even more ashamed if he encouraged him to do it.  It's a rule that makes sense if common sense was applied, but it's not and it's reared it's ugly head too much this year in stupid places.  To try to take advantage of it is embarrassing.  I'd like to say you're better than that Crean, but I know you're not.  ASS.
• 10 turnovers.  That's it for the Gophers.  Despite everything else I've written, which as usual is way more than I intended, that was really the key.  Well that and the 17 offensive rebounds, but that's to be expected.  This team is good enough to beat anyone in the country if they don't turn it over and actually play defense.  This may be hyperbole but this R.C. is going to my head.
• I'm willfully ignoring the stretch of possessions where the Gophers offense seemed clueless and got nothing but terrible shots as the shot clock expired as well as the fact that this sets up the Gophers perfectly to lose their last 3 games and make everybody nervous.  I will deal with all that later, for tonight, we party.

I'm an idiot with my phone, but you get the point.

Game Preview: Gophers vs. Hoosiers

You guys remember way back when we thought the Gophers were a top 10 team with Final Four aspirations and they were going into Bloomington to play a monster game against the #5 Hoosiers?  And then Indiana played a perfect first half to jump out to a 23 point halftime lead and we like oh man?  And then the Gophers showed a tremendous amount of heart, hustle, and all out warrior mentality and came storming back and came within a botched rebound off a missed Indiana free throw of having a chance to improbably send the game to OT?  Well I have bad news and bad news:  Indiana is playing those perfect halves (sometimes two in one game) more and more often, while the Gophers have stopped showing any of those traits that helped get them back in the game at Assembly Hall.

Since that game, Indiana has gone 9-2 with blowout wins by 23 (Penn State), 37 (@ Purdue), 29 (Nebraska), and 28 (Purdue) to go along with marquee wins over #1 Michigan (by 8), @ #13 Michigan State (by 5), @ #10 Ohio State (by 13), and #4 Michigan State (by 4).  They started the season as a juggernaut and are finishing as a juggernaut.  They're blowing out bad teams and beating good teams, home and road.  Meanwhile the Gophers are limping into the end of the season with their only three victories since the game in Bloomington coming in a lucky OT win against #20 Wisconsin, a last second win over Iowa, and a blowout of terrible Nebraska.  Their last two games were a 19 point road loss at Iowa and a 26 point road loss at Ohio State.  To say these teams have gone in opposite directions is a bit of an understatement, like saying Jennifer Lawrence is decent looking.

Statistically it's tough to find anywhere the Gophers have an edge.  Minnesota should get some steals and block some shots and that's where the good news ends.  Indiana lights it up from three, the Gophers can't defend the three.  Minnesota turns it over like crazy, Indiana creates a good amount of turnovers.  The Hoosiers are a great free throw shooting team, the Gophers are slightly below average (and outside of Hollinses are terrible).  The Gophers biggest strength is getting offensive rebounds, and Indiana is adept at not allowing this to happen.  The closest thing to a weakness for the Hoosiers is that they do turn the ball over almost as much as an average team (19% of possessions vs. national average of 20.2%).  Can the Gophers play the kind of defense that forces Indiana into turning the ball over, all the while not getting too overextended with their aggression to allow open looks from both 3 and 2?  They'll have to.

Indiana is simply loaded.  They have two guys who are in the National Player of the Year discussion in Cody Zeller and Victor Oladipo who play different positions and impact the game in different ways and either or both can win a game basically on their own if they needed to.  They have the underpants gnome in Jordan Hulls whose range starts when he crosses half court and who hits 50% of his threes anyway.  All that without even mentioned Christian Watford yet, who might be the best inside/outside player in the conference.  Even their one-time offensive weakness, freshman point guard Yogi Ferrell, has started to figure it out after realizing that nobody can keep him out of the lane.  He still can't really shoot, but he's morphed into a Lewis Jackson type player, only one who still thinks he can hit threes - hopefully he takes a ton of them on Tuesday.

I realize everything I've written makes it sound like I think the Gophers have no chance, and that's not true, but I've just been so demoralized by the last two ass whippings it's tough to get positive right now.  Normally I could point to the Gophers outscoring Indiana 52-36 in the second half in Bloomington and springboard that to the Gopher upset, but unfortunately the current Gopher squad so little resembles that team in its play that it may as well be a different season.

Even so, that second half and the first Illinois and Michigan State games say this team still has the talent to pull this one out, even if their recent plays gives very little indication that it would be possible.  The players have to know just how big this game is, and if Tubby can find a little magic and rally the troops I still think the home court advantage in Williams could be enough to put the Gophers over the top, they just need a little bit to break right.

On the other hand, after looking lost for the better part of a month to the point where the players look to be close to quitting and Tubby can't blame the players for screw-ups fast enough the team almost looks like it's heading for a full breakdown.  If Indiana jumps out to, say, a 15-5 lead that might be enough for everyone to go into their shell, pack up their things, and call it a day.  That's why the first 8 minutes on Tuesday are going to be the most important.  If Minnesota stays close, even if they lose but show that same ability and mental toughness from earlier this season, it will make me feel much better about the final stretch.  If the Hoosiers win easily, however, it might be time to start making NIT plans.

Indiana 80, Minnesota 68.

Game Preview: Gophers vs. Indiana Hoosiers

You mean I have to write this preview already?  It feels like the Illinois game just ended.  And man, what a game.  The Gophers defense is absolutely ridiculous.  I've never seen a team handle their rotations so well, and even Joe Coleman is looking semi-competent on that end.  That defense creates so many opportunities to run, whether through turnovers or missed shots, and with the athletes they have it plays right into their strengths.  Even in the half-court they're playing incredibly efficient and finding open opportunities, and with five guys who can score 20+ in any given night opposing defenses can't key on any one player or in any one area.  The bench is a bit of a concern, but like Snacks pointed out to me it's really not THAT bad, it's just that the starters are so good that when the reserves are in it makes them look worse.  The Gophers have gotten really strong stretches from Welch, Ahanmisi, Ingram, Oto, and Elliason this year, and when Tubby goes with that lineup they've been able to keep the margin close to what it was when they came in, giving Tubby the chance to rest the good players so they can play all or nearly all of the second half.  This is awesome.

But, as the way this season goes, as long as I'd like to dwell in the happiness of this win over Illinois we move on and now face a top 5 ranked team in the country and the preseason favorite (according to Vegas) to win the whole thing in the Indiana Hoosiers.

The Hoosiers come in at 14-1, with the lone loss coming in overtime against Butler in Indianapolis in a game that went to overtime.  The most interesting thing to me about those 14 wins is that they may not have a single win over an NCAA Tournament team yet.  NDSU is one of the favorites to win the Summit, but not the clear favorite.  Georgetown is a bubble team at best who's 0-2 in the Big East, North Carolina is heading straight for the NIT, and Iowa is going to have to pull off some major upsets (pleasegodno) to make it.  Everyone else has been a creampuff.

I bring that up not to say Indiana is overrated - far from it.  They've played incredibly well this year, ranking 6th in overall offense and 7th in overall defense at kenpom.com, one of only three teams (along with Duke and Florida) to rank in the top 10 in both.  While the Gophers also fair extremely well in those ratings (10th & 14th) they have a couple of glaring weaknesses (turnovers and allowing offensive rebounds) while in comparison Indiana is above average in literally every single metric measured.  They're an extremely good shooting team who can also put the clamps down defensively, they rebound well on both ends of the court, and they get to the line often while not putting their opponents there.  They don't depend on the three-pointer but hit it with regularly when they're left open, move the ball well, and like the Gophers, have five guys who can go for 20+ on any given night and can hurt defenses in a variety of different ways.  In short, this isn't Illinois or even Michigan State, this is a legit national title favorite (top 3-4 for me).  It isn't going to be easy.

I don't even know where to start when it comes to individual players because there's so much, so let's just get to it.

Cody Zeller could win National Player of the Year and he'd deserve it.  He's got great moves around the rim and can score with either hand going either direction and has a decent jumper out to about 15.  He blocks a decent amount of shots due to his height but isn't an exceptional athlete although he's no slouch there either and can run the floor very well.  He's added some strength this year but if he has a weakness it's his physicality.  The best thing that could happen for the Gophers would be to have Mbakwe go right after him and knock him around on both ends of the floor, hoping they refs let a lot go, beat him up, and take him off his game.  Will that work?  I don't know, but it's what I'd try.

Next to Zeller is Christian Watford, who creates an interesting match-up with Rodney Williams because they're both kind of tweeners, but with different skill sets.  While Williams puts up his numbers with his incredible athleticism, Watford is the exact opposite in that he gets his numbers (and the two have very similar numbers) despite being known as somewhat unathletic due to fundamentals and positioning and other nerdy things like that.  The other big difference is while Rodney is a questionable (at best) jump shooter, Watford is a dead-eye from 3.  The other knock on Watford is that he can lose focus and kind of tune out the game, and the Gophers best chance is for Rodney to frustrate him on the offensive end and hope he tunes out a bit and doesn't crash the offensive boards the way he usually can.

The third guy I want to point out is swingman Victor Oladipo, who might be the second best athlete in the conference (behind Rodney).  Also like Rodney, when he came into college ball he was basically an athlete who played basketball, but has since morphed into a more complete player, and Oladipo is a rich man's Williams because he is a more efficient version than Williams with a good jump shot.  I mean, dude, the guy is shooting 67% from the floor and 48% from three while averaging similar point and rebound per game numbers to Williams.  The Gopher defense is going to have to be just as tight against Indiana as it was against Illinois because if Oladipo gets the ball with just a speck of daylight to the rim he's going to explode after it.  Hopefully somebody can draw a charge or two.

Those are your three main cogs, but there's plenty of other talent here as well.  Jordan Hulls and Yogi Ferrell form kind of a tandem point guard duo - Hulls the steady veteran who takes care of the ball and is a great (and very smart) shooter (hits 52% from the field and three despite being a perimeter guy), and Ferrell the exciting (5.1 assists per game) freshman who is a little wild and can't hit the broad side of a barn when he shoots (32% from the floor, 24% from three).  The compliment each other extremely well and both are excellent defenders, if a bit undersized.  It may work to have the Gopher guards (Coleman, both Hollinses) post them up.  I'm not sure what kind of post game the Gopher guards have, but given their size/strength advantage I'd love to see them try.

Lastly, the Hoosiers have a pretty talented and deep bench led by Will Sheehey who is their fourth leading scorer and a damn good athlete in his own right and also is kind of a dick.  Remy Abell, Jeremy Hollowell, Derek Elston, and the recently reinstated Hanner Mosquera-Perea and Austin Etherington were all highly regarded recruits and round out the Hoosier bench with a cast that's probably better than Iowa.

Breaking it down, I really don't see any clear advantages for the Gophers.  Their best bet is to play their game - tough defense, taking advantage of transition opportunities, and crashing the offensive glass - and hope a few things go their way.  Hope the Gophers' physical play can intimidate and render Zeller and Watford ineffective.  Hope they can play well enough to shut down Oladipo, and that they can push Indiana out of the lane and get them to settle for the same bad shots Illinois was taking (and hope Hulls doesn't hit them anyway).  Hope the Gophers can stay out of foul trouble, because even though their bench is good, Indiana's is great.  If anything is a weakness for the Hoosiers it's that they haven't faced a team as good as the Gophers yet, where the Gophers have already played Duke.  For Indiana, Georgetown is probably as physical but isn't as skilled, while Butler is as skilled as the Gophers but isn't nearly as physical.  North Carolina and Iowa both try to score in transition the way the Gophers do, but neither are on Minnesota's level.

In reality, Indiana is a X.X point favorite for a reason, and while the Gophers can probably make a real game of it at home trying to overcome Indiana's advantage at Assembly Hall (and Big Ten ref's propensity for playing to the crowd) is likely too big a task.  A close game ending with a 5-8 point Indiana win is the likely outcome.

And yet.

I remember a game back in 1997.  A game where a ranked Gopher team went into Assembly Hall to face a higher ranked Indiana team.  Things looked bleak.  The Hoosiers looked to control the game as time wound down, and it looked like another good Gopher team would just be good.  Then there was a three-pointer.  A steal.  And then Bobby Jackson hit a three from the corner and we were headed to overtime, where the Gophers ground out a 5-point victory.  And they were off.  Next stop, Final Four and the best Gopher team of my lifetime.  Well, maybe until now.

Minnesota 80, Indiana 76 (in OT).

Gophers vs. Hoosiers Live Blog

I'm not exactly certain why, but I'm going to live blog this game.  I'm a bit nervous because I fully expect that three-eighths of my body will be covered in vomit by the end of this and let's face it I'm not 28 anymore so that's not cool, but I'm going to do it anyway.  I had a work sponsored happy hour earlier and am now armed with five Coors Light silos and a giant vat of Mrs. W's delicious vinegar dill cucumbers so I'm feeling confident.  Confident I'll be done with this post in less than an hour, but I'm now committed so let's see I guess.

20:00 - Ahanmisi not in the starting lineup tonight.  It's like we've already won.

20:00 - I love how everyone is so confused about Tubby being 0-4 in conference and how it's a miracle.  It's not a miracle when you don't care.  It's like, it's not a miracle that I have no Wild pennants in my house.  It's just that hockey is for idiots and I don't give a crap.  Kind of like how I imagine Tubby feels about this job.

19:38 - Welch's slow feet commit a foul.  He's now officially slower than small white dudes.

19:34 - Rodney bringing the aggressive getting his own board off a miss and converting it into a 3-point play.  I'm feeling like it might be a Rodney night.  Not sure if Indiana really has anybody outside Oladipo who can handle him.

18:48 - Indiana attacking the paint early.  What a weird concept.  Speaking of such, what percentage of Mbakwe's shot attempts were off of offensive rebounds?  Gotta be like 80, no?

18:16 - 8 seconds on the shot clock and the Gophers hadn't crossed the 3-point line yet.  Austy Hollins takes it to the rack and gets a lay-up. MORE OF THIS MORE EARLIER PLZ!

17:40 - Coleman gets it in the paint and makes the lay-up.  7-4 Gophers.  What's will all this paint action?  I haven't seen anything like this since Bear and I were firing paintball guns out our windows at each other at 2am back in high school.  Ok, they were staple guns, but same thing.

16:58 - Zeller finds himself in a breakaway situation and Ralph chases him down and gives him a good hard, clean foul to prevent the lay-in.  The exact kind of foul he needed to throw Lewis Jackson's way against Purdue.  I don't know if I should be more frustrated or encouraged.  Maybe this is like when Zack learns he's native american and half-asses his assignment and the professor is all like "dude" and then he goes to talk to Chief Henry and gets all serious and is all like "I'm running Zack."  Now that I look at it, I'm not really sure how that relates but Saved by the Bell references are always a hit.

15:38 - Ralph scores in the paint to make it 11-8 Gophers.  Yes, in the paint.  I assume he got lost.

15:15 - #1 for Indiana isn't Jordan Hulls is it?  Cuz #1 is freaking terrible.

14:35 - Zellar lay-up, Ralph grabs it to throw it in to the guard guy, half-ass lobs it without paying any attention and Zeller steals it and scores again.  12-11 Indiana.  Time-out Gophers.  Uh oh, Rexy, I don't think this one has the distance.

13:17 - I should mention I'm watching this on tape delay on account of my stupid kids, and it's 9:02 right now and my phone just buzzed with a text.  I'm too scared to check it, seeing as this is about the time the game would have ended.  I know, I'm stupid.  But what if?

12:33 - Will Sheehey checks in.  I had no idea he was white. Kind of a Lew Ford moment for me here.

12:12 - Joe Coleman to the rack.  Blocked by Zellar, but at least he's got the stones to take it inside.  I dislike an awful lot about Coleman's game, but for a freshman there is a ton I like.  I can't wait to watch him not develop at all over the next 3+ years and/or transfer after year two.

11:44 - Christian Watford goes down with an apparent ankle injury.  Not to sound like a callous dick, but I hope he's out for the game.  Just the game, nothing serious or anything, just maybe take the night off.  You've had a good year, you deserve some rest.  Maybe bring a cheerleader or team booster back with you.  Crack open a nice bottle of wine and maybe eat some grapes or whatever.  Have a nice relaxing evening.

10:36 - Holy fuck.  Zellar just dream shaked Ralph resulting in an uncontested hammer dunk and I'm not sure Ralph's figured out where the ball is yet.  Wow.  Seriously that's gonna be a sportscenter thingy.  Which means the Gophers will show up on the plays of the day for the second time this year.  Huzzah!

9:45 - Chip for 3 (Gophers 19, Indiana 18).  guess how much room he had and how much time he took to take the shot:  wrong.  The answer is zero.

9:02 - Ahanmisi to the rack for a lay-up.  Where the shit was all this against Iowa and Purdue?  I swear to god if they win this game I'm going to be more pissed than happy.

8:02 - Wide open three for Indiana and he goes clang city.  Got to assume those will fall eventually.  Just like the 3 Maverick just hit to open up a 26-20 lead for the Gophers. Then Verdell Jones missed an open 8-foot jumper.  And just now as I'm typing Chip hits another three.  It's 29-20.  I hate this team for what they do to me.  I hate them so much.  I should be in bed right now.

7:04 - I forgot to pause it when I went upstairs to get a beer and it's 29-23 now.  That is all.

6:34 - Couple more text messages trickling in.  Perhaps this one is closer than I thought in the end.  No chance Gophers can win.  None.  God I hope I'm wrong I think.  I'm so tempted to read them.  What if they aren't even about basketball?  Maybe it's some hot chick texting me pictures of her boobs and I'm ignoring it?  I think I'll resist for now, but it's close.

6:04 - Fucking awful charge call.  And another text comes in.  Interesting.

5:21 - Indiana continues to clang open threes like a wrestling team an open gym.  If that continues and never mind because Jordan Hulls (who is indeed #1) just buried a 25 footer in Chip's face.  Nine point lead now down to one.  Waaah waah.

4:24 - Joe Coleman either lost an eye or a contact.  I'd write more but I was trying to fast-forward to half-time and this made me stop so I'm kind of annoyed.

3:52 - Fast forwarded to far.  Indiana now winning, mainly because the Hoosiers switched to a zone and the Gophers are all like oh my god I'm so confused until just now when Austy hits a 3 to give them back the lead so that was good.

3:01 - Rodney dunk.  Nice to see you again, sir.

1:49 - Watford's back and just missed a really stupid shot.  Keep it up.

0:12 - Oto, while the team has the shot clock off and is playing for one shot, puts up a three with 12 seconds left and airballs it.  Yikes.  There is so much wrong about that play I'd actually be a little bit stunned if he gets off the bench in the second half.

0:00 - Gophers lead 37-34 and my phone is absolutely blowing up (and I'm still ignoring it).  This is either going to be a heartbreaking loss or a heartbreaking win, if you know what I mean.  And if you don't you're stupid.

0:00 - Am I drunk or is that Gary Williams as part of the Big 10 Network half-time show?  Gary Williams?  The Maryland guy?  What the hell?  That doesn't even remotely make sense.  Maybe they should pull in John Chaney and Rollie Mossimino are available.

19:18 - Well this will shock you, but Julian Welch missed another lay-up (he did get fouled but it was one of those sissy fouls where you're supposed to make the shot).  If you take Welch and a 3rd grader and have them do a lay-up contest who wins?  Welch of course, but it's probably a little too close.

18:32 - Zeller gets it on the block against Sampson and for some reason goes for the fade-away jump hook instead of doing anything remotely aggressive - and misses.  Welch takes it to the rack and makes it on the other end and Gophers now lead 43-34.  The amount of rim attacking in this game has now convinced me that Tubby (well, probably whichever assistant he gets to do the actual gameplanning) reads this blog.  I'm definitely the only one who had that idea ever.

17:00 - Rodney misses a weird off-balance lay-up kind of thing badly and scarily, but he took it to the rim from the top of the key.  This is definitely a concerted effort by the Gophers to get to the rack.  Nicely done.  I try to get to the rack as often as possible as well.

16:42 - Verdell Jones just hit all backboard on a wide open 3-point attempt.  That kind of night so far for Indiana.  This is going to be crushing when the Gophers lose.

16:32 - Will Sheehey has a little bit of Punto to 'em.

15:51 - The announcers point out that Jordan Hulls hasn't played this half and wonder what his status is.  I'll tell you his status - he sucks.  Been a long time since I've been this unimpressed by somebody who was supposed to be awesome.  Jordan Hulls, the Dave Matthews of Indiana basketball.

14:30 - Zeller dream shakes Ralph again, less effectively but still makes the shot, then Oladipo steals the inbounds pass and gets fouled.  Misses both free throws.  I can't decide if this is an omen that it's the Gophers night or a sign that they're falling apart.

14:01 - Wow, Austin Hollins is having a hell of a game after taking it right at Zeller and making the lay-up to make it a 47-40 Gopher lead.  Must be rough for Lionel to have to watch his kid sit on the bench while his nephew lights it up.  And he just hit a real nice pull-up J to make it a NINE point Gopher lead.  I'm starting to think unthinkable things.  Can't wait to have my heart ripped out.

12:25 - Rodney lay-up.  51-40 Gophers.  I don't know who this team is that I'm watching.  All they do is attack the rim/paint.  It's a whole different team.

11:50 - Hey there's Hulls!  Watford just missed a jumper off a Hulls' pass.  Pretty sure it was Hulls fault.

10:54 - Coleman drives and draws the help in the paint so even thought he missed the shot nobody was there to block out Rodney for an easy tip in.  Gophers 53-45 (Indiana scored while I was typing).  I'm going to be honest here, if the Gophers lose this it's going to break my heart even though I thought they already broke it.  They're playing exactly how I want them to play (on offense) and Indiana is missing shots.  This has to be it.  It has to be.

9:22 - Moving pick called on Indiana (John Thompson would be so proud).  I happened while Hulls had the ball.  Pretty sure he fucked up and Watford was trying to fix it when he got called for the foul.

9:00 - Williams with a lay-up (again) and a made free throw for kicks.  They are just slaughtering Indiana in the paint which is exactly what they should do since Zeller is their only inside presence of note.  I have no idea who this team is.  It's like that movie where who you think somebody is isn't because they're someone else.  The Hot Chick.

8:43 - Look at these cucumbers.  You want these.  If you tasted these you would punch your wife or boyfriend in the face for not making them:

8:18 - Eliason just hit a 16-footer to make it 58-51 Gophers.  This was after like four straight Indiana points.  I repeat:  Eliason just hit a 16-foot jump shot.  Like, he made it.  This is not the Hoosiers night.  Until it is, of course.

8:00 - Jordan Hulls just missed a three.  He's 90% of the reason they're losing.  He's like a white Russ Archambeau who plays the whole game.  Also Julian Welch is really, really good when he gets in the lane not counting those times when he blew the game.  You know how Ralph is really a fancy pants nancy boy perimeter player in a 7-footer's body?  I think Welch is the opposite.  If they could swap bodies like Jamie Lee Curtis and Lindsay Lohan in that movie or whoever else in those 4000 other movies based on that same basic premise I think everybody would be happy.  Plus they'd get to sleep with each other's girlfriends and wouldn't really be cheating. 

6:10 - Jordan Hulls just tried to take a dive on a lay-up to draw the charge, but it wasn't called and the gopher guy who I think was Chip missed the lay-up but because Hulls was on the floor the Gophers got the offensive rebound and scored.  Hulls, single-handedly ruining the Hoosiers' season.

4:11 - Trade Oto.

3:22 - Sampson misses a hook shot, naturally (did you notice that Sampson is almost an acronym for tampon?) but Coleman gets not one but two shots at a tip-in and makes the second to put the Gophers up 66-59.  They're up 7 with 3 minutes to go.  I'm semi-hyperventilating.

3:11 - Rodney just fouled out.  So that's pretty shitty.  I've always said this whole "foul limit" thing was pretty fascist.

2:42 - Not to hammer this point home too much like I was Sid Hartman or jesus's dad, but I have no idea what team I'm watching tonight.  Welch misses a lay-up (naturally) and Osenieks, filling in for Godney, gets not one but two chances at a tip-in, making the second one.  It's like they somehow get how close the season is to slipping away.  Maybe should've figured that out a game (or two) earlier, but this is the team I had been expecting to see this year.

Please don't blow this.

2:19 - Welch misses another lay-up which, and I'm not joking, makes four in the second half alone.  Serioulsy.  Remember that joke about how he'd beat third grader in a lay-up contest?  Not so sure he wins anymore.  This is an epidemic.  If they lose this that will make three games he's blown this year.  He's like the Jenna Jameson of basketball.  Because of the blows thing.  Get it?  Whatever shut up.  I'm semi-drunk and a little bit delirious.

1:42 - Sampson knocks down a 17 footer to make it 70-62 Gophers.  They can't blow this, right?  Right?

1:27 - Hulls misses a three.  What an anchor.  Terrance Simmons like.

0:50 - Mav misses a free throw but Colmean ends up grabbing the board.  Probably Hulls' fault.

0:40 - Gophers turn it over on the inbounds play giving Indiana a lay-up and the foul.  This is the kind of shit I don't need.  Gophers up 71-68.

0:39 - Indiana fouls and the announcers are debating whether they should have, which is stupid because if you don't foul you might not get the ball back until there are only 4 seconds left in the game.  Announcers are all dumb. All of them.  Might as well just let women do it.

0:30 - Coleman hits both FTs (I love you) then Indiana hits a three (not Jordan Hulls) to cut it to 73-71.  Blood pressure rising.

0:29 - Hulls fouls Coleman who makes both free throws.  That's on you, Hullsy.

0:17 - Zeller goes for the lay-up and Hollins's's fouls him.  What.  The.  Fuck.  Once he gets inside the three-point line just let him go.  Good god.  Talk to Uncle Lionel one of these days about making smart plays.

0:02 - Hollins makes two, Hulls passes to the wrong guy who misses, and Welch is at the line for two.  Make one and we're looking at ball game and a very serious how the hell did that happen situation.  Like when Pam Beasley got boobs all of a sudden.

0:01 - Did that mother fucker miss both?  Of course he did.  Jesus H christ Julian Welch makes Lebron look like Larry Bird with this clutch shit.  He needs to be nowhere near the court in the last 3 minutes of any close game.

0:00 - Gophers win, .  Perfect storm my friends.  Gophers finally learned they need to attack the basket the same night Indiana stopped making jump shots.  Not taking anything away from it, it was a great win for the home town team and a great feather in their cap, but I don't think we can start talking NCAA Tournament yet because they dug themselves such a huge hole, but wow.  Just wow.  I didn't remotely see this coming.  If they play like this the rest of the way they can win a ton of games.  Don't forget Indiana beat both Kentucky and Ohio State in this same building.  I think I'll have more thoughts later or next week or tomorrow or something, need some time to fully process this.  I can't remember being this stunned.  They led this game pretty much wire-to-wire.  Obviously they need to do a whole hell of a lot more, but this win saved the season.

I'm gonna go to bed.  Joe Coleman is my hero.

Also suck it Sidler.

Gophers vs. Hoosiers Preview

So the 0-4 Gophers head to Bloomington to take on the 3-1, and 8th ranked, Indiana Hoosiers.  This, my friends, is not going to be pretty.  Of course, it's nearly impossible to look at these two teams without comparing the coaches since both Tubby Smith and Tom Crean came on at nearly the same time, encumbered with the hopes and dreams of their respective fan bases that they could turn around struggling programs.  Tubby got a nice head start with a very stellar first recruiting class (and a year advantage), but while his players have either left or never developed to their full potential, Crean's kids struggled for a couple of years but have really started to come together this season with the addition of Cody Zeller, one of the best recruits ever signed by the Hoosiers.  At present, the Gophers are struggling through a second straight lost season (barring a miracle turnaround), while the Hoosiers have turned into one of the better teams in the country with wins over the #1 and #2 ranked teams this season.  Kill me now.

There are about a million reasons why this is going to be a blowout, but all you really need to know is that the Hoosiers are the #1 three-point shooting team in the country at 47.6%, and the Gophers rank 287th defensively against the three, allowing 35.7% shooting this year.  About the only hope they have is that Indiana doesn't shoot a high volume of threes normally, but I have a feeling that's going to change on Thursday.  With Christian Watford, Jordan Hulls, Derek Elston all shooting 50% or better and Will Sheehey checking in at 44% with Verdell Jones at 35% it's going to be raining threes all game long (note: Sheehey has been hurt and I have no idea if he's going to be back and I refuse to look it up because it really doesn't matter - he wasn't there for the wins over Ohio State or Michigan either).

Of course, the natural tendency then would be to game plan to stop the three-pointer, but since Tubby couldn't seem to make it happen against Purdue or Iowa (whether the fault lies with him or the players' execution of said game plan) I don't exactly trust they'll pull it off against Indiana.  And how could you?  The only way would be to trust Ralph/Eliason/Ingram to handle Zeller one-on-one and there is zero chance that will happen.  The only team he's remotely struggled against this year was Michigan State, and they have like 100 big athletic guys to throw at him where the Gophers have approximately zero.  You could say this is a great opportunity for Ralph Sampson to step up and help this team in his senior season, but then you'd be an idiot or some kind of weird Rip Van Winkle guy who just woke up and missed this entire season of Gopher basketball and in that case I would envy you.

Oh, and Indiana is also pretty good defensively, particularly at forcing turnovers.  Which is the Gophers' biggest offensive weakness, at least among things that are measurable because as far as I know there is no stat for how often four offensive players stand around doing nothing while one guy dribbles the ball or how many times a shot is taken with under 5 seconds on the shot clock after the ball fails to cross the three point line during a possession.

Seriously, this is going to be a slaughter.

Indiana 90, Minnesota 64.

Monday Musings (and good-bye, my love)

You know what's crazy?  I am super excited for the NBA to be back.  Actually I guess that's not all that crazy because I get excited for the NBA every single year.  I get all jacked up and decide that I'm going to really dedicate myself to following the NBA all season long rather than just jumping in for the playoffs, and it's finally time to really become an NBA fan.  Then, at some point in the second quarter, I watch  a defender not fight through a screen, the picker not roll, the wide open jump shooter clang it off the rim and the team with the ball getting a put back basket because nobody boxed out and the only one who jumped for teh rebound was the 2nd year power forward who still tried on every play.  And now they're playing back-to-back-to-backs and 66 games in like, 3 months or something like that.

Yet, here I am, getting all excited to watch the NBA on Christmas Day.  God I'm so dumb.  Here's some other quick stuff, in lieu of a Week in Review post which I was too lazy to write.

-  I guess the most obvious thing is the sad news that Jason Kubel will no longer be a Twin after signing for 2 years, $15 million with the D-Backs.  I've been pissed off at signings before (when Mussina left the O's for the Yankees I swore off baseball - for some reason I grew up a rabid Oriole fan), and others moves have left me stunned (when Brunansky was traded for Herr I distinctly remember calling my dad a liar, which he wasn't pleased about), but this is the first time I've been broken hearted, or at least as broken hearted as a reasonably rational adult male can be about sports.

I can't even be mad.  That 2 year, $15 million dollar deal is probably more than Kubel is worth considering he's a poor fielder, struggles against lefties, and has trouble staying healthy so I can't be mad at him for taking it or mad at the Twins for not matching/beating it (although I am a bit perturbed that they seemingly wrote him off and never seemed to care about trying to retain him).  So that's why I'm just sad, not angry at anybody.

I don't even know why I love Kubel so much, but I know his is one of only two articles of clothing I own with another man's name on the back (I also have a Denard Span shirt for some reason).  He is also the first player who I ever broke down and bought a shirt/jersey off with my own money (at other points I had owned a LaDainian Tomlinson jersey and a Randy Moss jersey - both gifts).  He's not particularly fast, or athletic, or anything.  His best skill is hitting the baseball, but he'll never be confused with Albert Pujols.  He doesn't even have the small, scrappy gamer thing going for him (although that would have made me hate him).  I think the reason Kubel is so loved, by me and many others, is because he seems like an every man.  Just a cool, laid back dude who would love to play softball and then pounds some beers.  Except in his case instead of softball he crushes pitches from the best baseball throwers in the world and gets millions to do it. 

Obviously I won't be able to follow his career as closely when he ships on over to the land where games start at 10:30pm, but god knows I'll try.  I'm not sure anybody will ever surpass him as my favorite Twin.  And yet we're stuck with Joe fucking Mauer and his enema of a contract and Justin Morneau who may or may not know what year it is.  This blows.

Tell me this guy wouldn't love to destroy you at Beer Pong.

-  On to other, less soul crushing things, you know all that talk about how great Cody Zeller was going to be right off the bat and was the kind of player who could turn Indiana's program right around?  Well I think for once the hype was right because I had a chance to actually watch this dude against Notre Dame (a game the Hoosiers won by 11) and he's absolutely the real deal.  There was one play where he blocked a lay-up attempt some some poor bastard on the Irish, then beat the defense down the court for an easy score.  He's really athletic for his size, very polished for a freshman, and can pass like a guard, and is like whoa.  I now feel very dirty for liking a Hoosier this much.  I'm going to go take like, six showers and then burn myself with matches.

-  As long as I'm talkin' Big Ten players who brokeout or whatever I guess we should talk DeShaun Thomas after his 30 point outburst against South Carolina (on 13-16 shooting!!) which followed his 23-point game (on 10-15 shooting).  Not surprising, since if you watched Thomas last year you could see he had the potential to be a big time scorer and I'm pretty sure he led the nation in points per minute last year (and shots per minute).  When he's hot and hitting he's going to put up major points since he's basically always taking a heat check, and he's been on fire lately which is good timing since Sullinger has a constant hangnail or something.  Of course, it's going to also be fun when he goes 1-14 in a game and shoots the Buckeyes into a loss.  Hopefully against the Gophers.  Ok I laughed when I typed that.


-  Sticking with the Big 10, just when you think everything is hunky dory along comes to Purdue to mess everything up by losing to Butler (Illinois lost a home game to UNLV as well, but that's at least understandable).  Now, in case you haven't been paying attention this year Butler isn't the same Butler they've been for the last several seasons - they straight up suck.  They were 4-6 going into the Purdue game, and that includes losses to Ball State, Valpo, and Evansville, with their wins coming against three truly dreadful teams and a D-II opponent.  And yet Purdue managed to lose on a tip-in at the buzzer on a neutral court.  Ouch.  It's probably the worst loss by a Big Ten team other than Nebraska, Penn State, or Iowa.  Nice work, dingleberries.
- Sigh.  I hate this, but it's time to admit that Washington, although the most fun team to watch ever, are pretty clearly not an NCAA caliber team.  A completely embarrassing loss to South Dakota State - at home by 19 - slams that home pretty clearly and drops Washington to 5-5 on the season.  I suppose none of the other losses are that bad by themselves (@ St. Louis, @ Nevada in OT, and versus Marquette and Duke in Madison Square Garden) but good god, a 20 pt loss to SDSU?  Maybe I'm overreacting but I'm just disgusted.  South Dakota State opened up a 35-14 lead early and never looked back, riding 55% shooting (10-16 from 3), and 26-32 free throw shooting to an easy, and shocking, win.  I suppose whenever a Pac-10 team loses it shouldn't be a surprise (Arizona also got blown out by Gonzaga), but damn, this is just sad.  I miss Captain Circus Ball.

- Ha-ha, stupid Packers.  Go around all cockin' off about how you were gonna go for the perfect season and guess what happens?  You get punched in the mouth by a crappy crap team with a 40 year old running  back, a QB nobody wants, very little talent, and a completely dopey head coach.  On one hand, it's possible this loss refocuses them and they get better, but on the other hand a perfect Packer season is more than I could possibly take and either end up killing myself or somebody would end up dead after I raged out.  It was so fun watching the last two minutes of the game where the Packers needed a stop badly but their little sissy soft defense full of nancy boy hippy girls couldn't stop the Chiefs running game even when they knew damn well a running play was coming.  Seemed like all the talk about the Packer D being statistically poor only because they always had the lead might have just been wishful thinking, because these guys are freaking terrible.  In conclusion, go to hell Green Bay.


Seriously though.  I feel like Mel Gibson in that movie where he's all like "Give me back my Kubel!"  You know what I'm talking about.  The only thing cheering me up at all is I just saw the Christmas card we got from $nake and guess what?  His youngest son is wearing a Yankee cap in the picture they used.  A Yankee cap.  The Yankees.  The New York Yankees.  Jesus, what an asshole.

Big Ten Preview: #9 INDIANA HOOSIERS

Seems like every year we keep waiting for Indiana to put it all together, and every year they tease you a bit but then end up crashing down like that satellite in that Dave Matthews song.  I mean, on paper they should be a pretty good team:  Maurice Creek and Christian Watford were top 50 guys, with Verdell Jones, Jordan Hulls, Derek Elston, Verdell Jones, Will Sheehey, and Victor Oladipo were all top 150 guys.  To that they add Cody Zeller who ranks as #15.  Really, that's a lot of talent on paper.

Maurice Creek has had a whole bunch of knee and leg injuries leading him to look like a shell of his former self and now looks like he's probably out for the year after another surgery and Derek Elston has been pretty lame so far, but the rest of these guys are in various stages of interesting development.  Jones isn't going to be your lead dog any time soon but can score in bunches at times.  Christian Watford is one of the best all around players in the conference, if not the country.  Jordan Hulls is annoying as shit but he's a good quality point guard who takes care of the basketball and can score when needed.  Victor Oladipo has had some serious high-flying highlights and is looking like a superb athlete.  And I don't know what Sheehey is going to develop into but I see some serious Brian Cardinal potential going on.

The biggest key for this year is Zeller.  If he's an immediate impact player who can put up a nightly double-double or near it they have a chance to at least be on the NCAA bubble at the end of the year.  If he's a year away, so are they.  Scouting reports I've read seem to say that his offensive game is already in very good shape, but based on his size and strength he's going to get pushed around a bit, which will mean defensively and on the boards he could end up being a liability.

Big men (6-10 or bigger) in the Rivals top 20 haven't fared all that greatly lately in their first year:  Adreian Payne, Fab Melo, John Henson, MouphtaouYarou, Renardo Sidney, B.J Mullens, Ater Majok, Ty Walker, Terrence Jennings, and Tony Woods all struggled for one reason or another as freshmen.  The only two exceptions were one guy who was exceptionally athletic (Perry Jones) and one guy who was exceptionally skilled (Greg Monroe).  I don't think Zeller is exceptionally athletic, but there's an outside chance he could be exceptionally skilled (although Monroe had an NBA ready body already).  His brother Tyler made an impact on the Heels the first season he got playing time as sophomore (9 pts/5 rebs per game in 17 minutes per, was buried as a freshman).

I don't know what exactly to think, but he's hyped up the ass when in reality it should be Watford getting all the preseason press.  Maybe he'll live up to it right out of the gate, but I doubt it.  In any case Crean certainly has the Hoosiers heading back towards respectability and he's already got a monster class for 2012 - 4 top 150 guys with two in the top 20.

Great.

DWG Over/Under Conference Wins:  6