Wait, what? Gophers beat who?

Wow.  That was unexpected.  I'm pretty sure I can't write anything too intelligent or insightful right now since I was pretty much watching that game on pure emotion, but I can throw down a few thoughts because if you're like me you are just going to spend all day at work reading everything you can find about the game.  So I'll sit here with my celebratory cognac (fine, vodka and coke) and write a couple of thoughts.  Also, it's not coke, it's R.C.   *hangs head in shame

[NOTE:  This formatting is horrendous.  I'd fix it but I have no idea how.]

• This was the Gopher team we saw in the early season.  If they can play like this to close out the year they're a sweet 16 contender again.
• This wasn't a case of Indiana playing poorly, the Gophers simply outplayed them.
• I thought Dre Hollins would be the one to step up and carry the team if anybody did, but no question it was Mbakwe setting the tone in the first half.  Remember last year at the beginning of the season when the Gophers would spend three quarters of the game struggling against crappy teams and then Mbakwe would be all like "ok, I'm getting every missed shot now" and carry them back to a win?  Yeah, that's what he was again tonight.  Was amazing.
• Really, nobody played poorly though.  Even those who didn't play well overall made huge plays at some point.  Hollins, Hollins, and Rodney all shot poorly, but Dre hit some huge shots down the stretch (including that monster three down the stretch which, right before, I told the Bear (who came to the game with me) that if the Gophers hit a 3 on that possession I'd do something unspeakable to him so well, there's that), Austin had a couple of huge plays, and Rodney had that big Hakim Warrick style block on an Oladipo three as time was running out.  Everybody came up with a big play at some point.  Everybody.  Even the 5 second call on Indiana came when Mo Walker was in the game.  He had nothing to do with it, but he was there.
• Some will say this is enough to guarantee the Gophers a tournament berth no matter what happens the rest of the way.  I'm not quite that certain, but at this point I'm confident if they can beat either Penn State at home OR Nebraska on the road that will do it.  Obviously the more wins they can get the better the seed, but as long as the Gophers don't go 0-4 to finish up (including the B10 tournament) it should be the easiest Selection Sunday in years.  Decades, really.
• I've gone on record as saying I'm terrified of a Mo Walker/Elliott Elliason starting front court next season.  No longer.  I'm not exactly fired up about it, but Elliason has done enough go convince me at worst he can be a Trevor Winter type, and he has two years to get better.  Walker has shown enough flashes of potential to at least temper my scaredness.  With Hollins, Hollins, and Coleman still going to be around those two just have to be not terrible for the team to at least be in contention for an NCAA bid.  Still hoping and believing in a Chuck Buggs breakout.  Believe with me.
• Speaking of believing, man did whoever is in charge of music botch the "Don't Stop Believing" music in the final minute or so of the game.  Started it too late and never even got to the chorus.  Horrible.
• Cody Zeller is every bit as good as advertised.  He is smooth in the paint and has a bunch of really good moves he can go to on the block.  He's also a bit soft, however, and disappeared after Mbakwe, Elliason, and Williams reminded him that this is the Big Ten and pushing people and elbows and what not is the norm.  I heard someone mention that Indiana stopped looking for Zeller, but really Zeller stopped posting up hard in the second half.  Sorry, but it's true.
• Also Victor Oladipo is ridiculous.  If I had any criticism of Indiana tonight it's that they didn't just iso Oladipo every single time they had the ball, because Joe Coleman was the primary defender on him tonight and I'm sorry I like Coleman but he is a horrendous defender.  Oladipo beat him to the paint every time he tried, and there were a couple of times I watched Coleman stand still as if rooted to the ground when he should have been providing some weak side help.  Again, I like the guy a lot, but he's a horrific defender.
• That being said, overall the defense was outstanding tonight.  Holding both Watford and Zeller to single digit scoring was huge, especially because Watford picked up six of his eight on shitty late threes that were half luck.  Plus shutting down Hulls after his huge first half was big, and it happened because of more awareness of where he was and just a swarming defense that refused to give up good looks.  We saw that kind of defense earlier in the year but it has since bailed, good to see it again. 
• I haven't seen video of the play but Will Sheehey should be ashamed of himself if he really flopped there in the last 30 seconds or so, looking for a cheap flagrant against Dre Hollins.  Crean should be even more ashamed if he encouraged him to do it.  It's a rule that makes sense if common sense was applied, but it's not and it's reared it's ugly head too much this year in stupid places.  To try to take advantage of it is embarrassing.  I'd like to say you're better than that Crean, but I know you're not.  ASS.
• 10 turnovers.  That's it for the Gophers.  Despite everything else I've written, which as usual is way more than I intended, that was really the key.  Well that and the 17 offensive rebounds, but that's to be expected.  This team is good enough to beat anyone in the country if they don't turn it over and actually play defense.  This may be hyperbole but this R.C. is going to my head.
• I'm willfully ignoring the stretch of possessions where the Gophers offense seemed clueless and got nothing but terrible shots as the shot clock expired as well as the fact that this sets up the Gophers perfectly to lose their last 3 games and make everybody nervous.  I will deal with all that later, for tonight, we party.

I'm an idiot with my phone, but you get the point.

Game Preview: Gophers vs. Hoosiers

You guys remember way back when we thought the Gophers were a top 10 team with Final Four aspirations and they were going into Bloomington to play a monster game against the #5 Hoosiers?  And then Indiana played a perfect first half to jump out to a 23 point halftime lead and we like oh man?  And then the Gophers showed a tremendous amount of heart, hustle, and all out warrior mentality and came storming back and came within a botched rebound off a missed Indiana free throw of having a chance to improbably send the game to OT?  Well I have bad news and bad news:  Indiana is playing those perfect halves (sometimes two in one game) more and more often, while the Gophers have stopped showing any of those traits that helped get them back in the game at Assembly Hall.

Since that game, Indiana has gone 9-2 with blowout wins by 23 (Penn State), 37 (@ Purdue), 29 (Nebraska), and 28 (Purdue) to go along with marquee wins over #1 Michigan (by 8), @ #13 Michigan State (by 5), @ #10 Ohio State (by 13), and #4 Michigan State (by 4).  They started the season as a juggernaut and are finishing as a juggernaut.  They're blowing out bad teams and beating good teams, home and road.  Meanwhile the Gophers are limping into the end of the season with their only three victories since the game in Bloomington coming in a lucky OT win against #20 Wisconsin, a last second win over Iowa, and a blowout of terrible Nebraska.  Their last two games were a 19 point road loss at Iowa and a 26 point road loss at Ohio State.  To say these teams have gone in opposite directions is a bit of an understatement, like saying Jennifer Lawrence is decent looking.

Statistically it's tough to find anywhere the Gophers have an edge.  Minnesota should get some steals and block some shots and that's where the good news ends.  Indiana lights it up from three, the Gophers can't defend the three.  Minnesota turns it over like crazy, Indiana creates a good amount of turnovers.  The Hoosiers are a great free throw shooting team, the Gophers are slightly below average (and outside of Hollinses are terrible).  The Gophers biggest strength is getting offensive rebounds, and Indiana is adept at not allowing this to happen.  The closest thing to a weakness for the Hoosiers is that they do turn the ball over almost as much as an average team (19% of possessions vs. national average of 20.2%).  Can the Gophers play the kind of defense that forces Indiana into turning the ball over, all the while not getting too overextended with their aggression to allow open looks from both 3 and 2?  They'll have to.

Indiana is simply loaded.  They have two guys who are in the National Player of the Year discussion in Cody Zeller and Victor Oladipo who play different positions and impact the game in different ways and either or both can win a game basically on their own if they needed to.  They have the underpants gnome in Jordan Hulls whose range starts when he crosses half court and who hits 50% of his threes anyway.  All that without even mentioned Christian Watford yet, who might be the best inside/outside player in the conference.  Even their one-time offensive weakness, freshman point guard Yogi Ferrell, has started to figure it out after realizing that nobody can keep him out of the lane.  He still can't really shoot, but he's morphed into a Lewis Jackson type player, only one who still thinks he can hit threes - hopefully he takes a ton of them on Tuesday.

I realize everything I've written makes it sound like I think the Gophers have no chance, and that's not true, but I've just been so demoralized by the last two ass whippings it's tough to get positive right now.  Normally I could point to the Gophers outscoring Indiana 52-36 in the second half in Bloomington and springboard that to the Gopher upset, but unfortunately the current Gopher squad so little resembles that team in its play that it may as well be a different season.

Even so, that second half and the first Illinois and Michigan State games say this team still has the talent to pull this one out, even if their recent plays gives very little indication that it would be possible.  The players have to know just how big this game is, and if Tubby can find a little magic and rally the troops I still think the home court advantage in Williams could be enough to put the Gophers over the top, they just need a little bit to break right.

On the other hand, after looking lost for the better part of a month to the point where the players look to be close to quitting and Tubby can't blame the players for screw-ups fast enough the team almost looks like it's heading for a full breakdown.  If Indiana jumps out to, say, a 15-5 lead that might be enough for everyone to go into their shell, pack up their things, and call it a day.  That's why the first 8 minutes on Tuesday are going to be the most important.  If Minnesota stays close, even if they lose but show that same ability and mental toughness from earlier this season, it will make me feel much better about the final stretch.  If the Hoosiers win easily, however, it might be time to start making NIT plans.

Indiana 80, Minnesota 68.

Week in Review - 1/21/2013

I really have no idea why I stopped doing these posts.  They're fairly easy, since I can write parts of them during the week, they cover all sports for an entire week period, and they give you, the idiot reader, something to depend on knowing this post will be here every Monday morning.  I'm going to do my best to get back on this and start having the Monday morning Week in Review's again.  Or your money back.  And I'm going to start with Lance Armstrong.

Ha ha just kidding.  I don't care. 

WHO WAS AWESOME

1.  Joe Flacco.  As much as I hate to give credit when it's due, I'm going to have to in Flacco's case because he had a great game getting the Ravens to the Super Bowl and outplayed Tom Brady to do it.  He seems to have developed a couple interesting skills to go with one of the strongest arms in the league - he can pick apart a defense underneath using his backs and TEs, and he has that over the shoulder throw to Boldin in the end zone down cold.  Both of his touchdown throws to Boldin were on that same play, and more than half his completions were to backs or tight ends, and then he can cut loose with that big arm to Torrey Smith when needed.  It will be kind of interesting to see how he adjusts in the red zone when the 49ers inevitably put a safety on top of Boldin when they get close.  I also just realized this is going to be a Harbaugh vs. Harbaugh Super Bowl and we're going to have to hear that over and over and over again.  Oh god, and also Ray Lewis.  And I have a feeling Colin Kaepernick is going to get way too much press, too.  God I am suddenly remembering how much I hate the 2 weeks leading up to the Super Bowl.  Don't they have some kind of 2-week coma drug?  I know the wife and kids probably wouldn't be down for me going in that direction, but I'm not sure I have a choice.  Not my fault.

2.  Washington Nationals.  In a baseball hot stove league that's been characterized by teams "going for it in their window" more than any other I can remember (Baltimore Orioles exempted, for some reason) the Nats just made another move that put them in the Dodgers/Blue Jays tier for "going for it" signing closer Rafael Soriano to a two year, $28 million deal with an option that automatically vests if he finishes 120 combined games in the two years.  That now gives the Nationals a bullpen of Tyler Clippard in the 7th, Drew Storen in the 8th, and Soriano in the 9th, and that's in front of a rotation of Stephen Strasburg/Gio Gonzalez/Jordan Zimmermann/Dan Haren/Ross Detwiler.  Their also loaded with a young and talented lineup with only one bad contract (Jayson Werth), Wilson Ramos will be back at catcher, they traded for Denard Span to fill their only real lineup leak, and resigned Adam LaRoche to a reasonable contract which gives them an excellent trade chip (Michael Morse, now a back-up who was just traded to Seattle in a three-way deal that brought them a couple decent prospects because lord knows they don't have enough) all at the same time.  Yes, paying $14 million to a reliever is too much especially when you have to give up a first round pick to do it, but I'm a big fan of this "going for it" thing and I'd say they're in pretty decent shape.  At least until they shutdown Strasburg after 190 innings this year because, you know, you can never be too careful.

3.  Butler Bulldogs.  I don't know if it's Brad Stevens or what (NOTE: it's probably Brad Stevens) but Butler just keeps on going.  When they made those back-to-back NCAA Championship games you kind of figured like, ok he found a few diamonds in the rough in Gordon Hayward, Shelvin Mack, and Matt Howard (really rough, in his case) and Stevens got them to perfectly come together for a magical run (or two) and then they'd go back to being Butler.  When they missed the NCAA Tournament (made the CBI) last season everything looked confirmed.  But now?  First Stevens gets Rotnei Clarke, and ultra-experienced deadeye shooter who fits Butler's system perfectly, to come to Indy, joining a couple of decent players, and you figure Butler would probably be decent.  Little did you know Clarke was going to play out of his mind and a couple promising youngsters would suddenly blossom into double-digit scorers.  Then Clarke gets hurt against Richmond and you'd think Butler would slide, but they had no issue finishing up Richmond, and then played a really, really good Gonzaga team and did this:

I hate teams that are always good because I'm so unfamiliar with it.  It's like an Amish who was dropped in Dubai.

4. Florida Gators.  For my money, there are six teams (seven if you count my super sleeper VCU) who could potentially win the NCAA Championship this year - Louisville, Syracuse, Michigan, Indiana, Duke, and the sixth is Florida.  For some reason they're only ranked 10th.  Why?  Because they have two losses, although those happen to be at Arizona (a one-loss team) in a game Florida controlled for 38 minutes before letting it slip away, and against a good Kansas State in Kansas City.  Look at their recent results.  After a week of dominating fools they've now won their four SEC games by 33 (vs. Georgia), 22 (@ LSU), 21 (@ Texas A&M), and 31 (vs. Missouri).  I know Mizzou is in kind of a tailspin right now with Bowers hurt and Dixon having been kicked off the team, but beating that team by 31 is still damn impressive.  Florida is one of the few teams in the country with a great offense and a great defense, with great players both on the perimeter and in the paint.  I feel pretty effing good having gotten down on them at 12-1 to win the whole thing.  Don't think, just do it.

5.  Syracuse Orangemen.  I've touted Louisville as my #1 team in the country so I need to give credit to the Orange for taking them down on the road, and actually this was the game that convinced me to put Cuse in that "could win the title" group because they played great in a tough environment.  I have no idea why Syracuse has kind of been under my radar, but I assume it's because I'm an idiot.  They're loaded at guard and play two point guards in Brandon Triche and Michael Carter-Williams, which they can get away with because they're 6-4 and 6-6, and an awesome front court that includes two great scorers (C.J. Fair and James Southerland) and a defensive superstar (Rakeem Christmas).  Their only loss was to Temple at MSG, and they now have probably the best win of anyone this season with that roadie vs. the #1 team to legitimize them.  They do have a big issue hanging over them with Southerland's indefinite suspension due to some kind of academic issue, but I would assume he'll be back soon enough given that Syracuse is a big time hoops school and so the administrators probably understand it's best to get him back on the court. 

Stupid Joel Maturi.

WHO SUCKED

1.   Gopher basketball.  I'm not giving up on the season, thinking they suck, or anything like that.  I mean they have three losses this season and they're all to teams that have been ranked in the top 3 this season, and only the Duke game was a double digit loss.  What sucks, and why I have to put the Gophers here, is that I'm having trouble imagining them as a Final Four team anymore, simply because there have been stretches in all three losses where they've been absolutely dominated, and the domination wasn't for a short period of time but a very long one.  Michigan outscored them 20-7 over a 7 minute period, Indiana had that entire first half, and Duke pretty much controlled the whole game.  For much of this year I had considered the Gophers to be a possible Final Four contending team and maybe the best Gopher team of my life.  That seems laughable now, as I'm fairly certain the '97 team would crush these guys.

That's not to say this can't be a very good year.  I'm picturing the team now as a top 5 finisher in the Big 10 with like a 5 seed and a decent shot to make the Sweet 16.  Wouldn't we all have taken that coming into the season?  Of course we would have.  By any measure (for the Gopher program) that's a successful season, it's just that it felt like the bar had been raised and that this might be a special team, rather than a very good one.  It's hard to feel that way anymore after watching Michigan completely outclass them on their own court.  Hopefully they can sweet these next four winnable games and I can feel a bit better, and even though I know this is a really good Gopher team it's hard not to feel a bit of a gut punch here.  It's not the losses, it's the way they lost.  Hopefully they learn and move on.  I'm also now extremely terrified of going to Northwestern. 

2. Los Angeles Lakers.  I know I'm not exactly breaking new ground here because I think everyone is aware of the Lakers' struggles, but holy crap you guys.  Anybody who ever watched sports new their might be an adjustment period bringing in Nash to play with a guy who dominates the ball like Kobe (similar to the LeBron/Wade pairing initially) but even if it took them a while to get it figured out with complimentary players like Dwight Howard and Pau Gasol you'd expect them, worst case, to end up being a very dangerous low seed in the playoffs as they finally figured it out.  One problem - they're not figuring it out, and at 17-23 are in severe danger of missing the playoffs after losing to Toronto on Sunday (TORONTO!!) thanks in part to Howard getting booted for picking up two technicals.  They've now lost eight of their last ten, and count losses to the Raptors, Cavs, Magic, and the Kings among their failures this year - those are some bad teams.  Normally I would be enjoying this immensely, but I just acquired Kobe for my Fantasy NBA team and so now I don't hate him as much.

3.  Jordan Hulls.  So let me get this straight, the Underpants Gnome plays out of his mind against the Gophers but then plays like a total asshole against Wisconsin?  And don't you dare credit Wisconsin for this either, because he was just total garbage who couldn't shoot, only bothered to take 1 three-pointer (seriously with that range he only attempted one?  First time all year), and turned the ball over like he was giving it away for Valentine's Day to some handsome man.  Plus he was outplayed by Ben Brust who sucks.  And what was with Indiana doubling down on Ryan freaking Evans on the block?  Just let him go to work, you'll be better off letting him shoot.  The only possible explanations for this game was that Indiana felt invincible after beating the Gophers and forgot to try or Jordan Hulls threw the game.  Also, why do I have so much trouble spelling invincible?  Everything about this has my brain scrambled like Kevin Burleson trying to break a press.

4.  Matt Ryan.  I thought Ryan was getting a little too much heat for never having won a playoff game (probably because the Matty Ice nickname is so annoying) but it's hard to find a way to not blame that game on Ryan (with a major assist to the defense).  I'll even forgive him the pick because Roddy White fell down, but there were plenty of unforgivable mistakes.  The fumbled shot gun snap that San Fran recovered which hit him perfectly in the hands and not picking up a single first down after recovering the Crabtree fumble (giving the Niners great field position after a shitty punt) were both pretty awful, but Ryan saved his worst for the biggest play of the game.  On that fourth down inside the 10 he forced the ball to a non-open White, never bothering to look at any other receive and thus missing an absolutely wide open Tony Gonzalez who had slipped behind the linebackers and there wasn't a safety over the top - easy TD.  I should feel good about this loss because the Falcons screwed over the Vikings in '98, but I hate Jim Harbaugh, Ray Lewis, and the Patriots so Atlanta was my only chance to enjoy the Super Bowl.  Hopefully they'll be good food.

5.  Seattle Mariners. If I'm going to praise the Nationals for making a good move, I gotta point out that the Mariners apparently are assembling a softball team or something.  After acquiring Michael Morse in the above mentioned trade, they now have all these guys: Morse, Raul Ibanez, Jason Bay, Kendrys Morales, Justin Smoak, and Jesus Montero.  Which means that even if they plan to give Montero another shot to be a catcher (LOL) they've still got five mostly immobile types to try to shoehorn into a lineup.  That means something like Montero at C, Ibanez in LF, Morse in RF, Morales at 1b, and either Smoak or Bay at DH with the other coming off the bench?  Ibanez and Morse as two of your 3 outfielders?  Franklin Gutierrez is very good, but he's not that good.  I guess the real point is why even trade for Morse?  Even if they've given up on Smoak (and if they have they should trade him to the Twins because I STILL BELIEVE DAMMIT) acquiring Morse brings nothing to you that you don't already have, and by trading John Jaso to do it you've severely downgraded your defense going to Montero, but they don't really have another choice because, again, they have way to many slow RF/DH/1b types to fit Montero's bat in any other way.  Seattle has the potential for a pretty kick-ass future (seriously their minor league pitchers are top shelf) but if they keep fucking up the present like this it's not going to matter.  Those Nintendo guys haven't done anything baseball-related right since Baseball Stars.  Remember Baseball Stars 2?  What were they thinking?


You'll notice I had the prudence to not write about this whole Manti Te'o thing because let's be honest, it's pretty played out at this point.  Was a pretty good day on twitter, though.  I also didn't write about hockey because it's a sport for cretins.  See you soon with a preview of the Northwestern game.  Or maybe just a link to the one I wrote like a week ago.  Jesus aren't they supposed to space these games out? 

Game Preview: Gophers vs. Indiana Hoosiers

You mean I have to write this preview already?  It feels like the Illinois game just ended.  And man, what a game.  The Gophers defense is absolutely ridiculous.  I've never seen a team handle their rotations so well, and even Joe Coleman is looking semi-competent on that end.  That defense creates so many opportunities to run, whether through turnovers or missed shots, and with the athletes they have it plays right into their strengths.  Even in the half-court they're playing incredibly efficient and finding open opportunities, and with five guys who can score 20+ in any given night opposing defenses can't key on any one player or in any one area.  The bench is a bit of a concern, but like Snacks pointed out to me it's really not THAT bad, it's just that the starters are so good that when the reserves are in it makes them look worse.  The Gophers have gotten really strong stretches from Welch, Ahanmisi, Ingram, Oto, and Elliason this year, and when Tubby goes with that lineup they've been able to keep the margin close to what it was when they came in, giving Tubby the chance to rest the good players so they can play all or nearly all of the second half.  This is awesome.

But, as the way this season goes, as long as I'd like to dwell in the happiness of this win over Illinois we move on and now face a top 5 ranked team in the country and the preseason favorite (according to Vegas) to win the whole thing in the Indiana Hoosiers.

The Hoosiers come in at 14-1, with the lone loss coming in overtime against Butler in Indianapolis in a game that went to overtime.  The most interesting thing to me about those 14 wins is that they may not have a single win over an NCAA Tournament team yet.  NDSU is one of the favorites to win the Summit, but not the clear favorite.  Georgetown is a bubble team at best who's 0-2 in the Big East, North Carolina is heading straight for the NIT, and Iowa is going to have to pull off some major upsets (pleasegodno) to make it.  Everyone else has been a creampuff.

I bring that up not to say Indiana is overrated - far from it.  They've played incredibly well this year, ranking 6th in overall offense and 7th in overall defense at kenpom.com, one of only three teams (along with Duke and Florida) to rank in the top 10 in both.  While the Gophers also fair extremely well in those ratings (10th & 14th) they have a couple of glaring weaknesses (turnovers and allowing offensive rebounds) while in comparison Indiana is above average in literally every single metric measured.  They're an extremely good shooting team who can also put the clamps down defensively, they rebound well on both ends of the court, and they get to the line often while not putting their opponents there.  They don't depend on the three-pointer but hit it with regularly when they're left open, move the ball well, and like the Gophers, have five guys who can go for 20+ on any given night and can hurt defenses in a variety of different ways.  In short, this isn't Illinois or even Michigan State, this is a legit national title favorite (top 3-4 for me).  It isn't going to be easy.

I don't even know where to start when it comes to individual players because there's so much, so let's just get to it.

Cody Zeller could win National Player of the Year and he'd deserve it.  He's got great moves around the rim and can score with either hand going either direction and has a decent jumper out to about 15.  He blocks a decent amount of shots due to his height but isn't an exceptional athlete although he's no slouch there either and can run the floor very well.  He's added some strength this year but if he has a weakness it's his physicality.  The best thing that could happen for the Gophers would be to have Mbakwe go right after him and knock him around on both ends of the floor, hoping they refs let a lot go, beat him up, and take him off his game.  Will that work?  I don't know, but it's what I'd try.

Next to Zeller is Christian Watford, who creates an interesting match-up with Rodney Williams because they're both kind of tweeners, but with different skill sets.  While Williams puts up his numbers with his incredible athleticism, Watford is the exact opposite in that he gets his numbers (and the two have very similar numbers) despite being known as somewhat unathletic due to fundamentals and positioning and other nerdy things like that.  The other big difference is while Rodney is a questionable (at best) jump shooter, Watford is a dead-eye from 3.  The other knock on Watford is that he can lose focus and kind of tune out the game, and the Gophers best chance is for Rodney to frustrate him on the offensive end and hope he tunes out a bit and doesn't crash the offensive boards the way he usually can.

The third guy I want to point out is swingman Victor Oladipo, who might be the second best athlete in the conference (behind Rodney).  Also like Rodney, when he came into college ball he was basically an athlete who played basketball, but has since morphed into a more complete player, and Oladipo is a rich man's Williams because he is a more efficient version than Williams with a good jump shot.  I mean, dude, the guy is shooting 67% from the floor and 48% from three while averaging similar point and rebound per game numbers to Williams.  The Gopher defense is going to have to be just as tight against Indiana as it was against Illinois because if Oladipo gets the ball with just a speck of daylight to the rim he's going to explode after it.  Hopefully somebody can draw a charge or two.

Those are your three main cogs, but there's plenty of other talent here as well.  Jordan Hulls and Yogi Ferrell form kind of a tandem point guard duo - Hulls the steady veteran who takes care of the ball and is a great (and very smart) shooter (hits 52% from the field and three despite being a perimeter guy), and Ferrell the exciting (5.1 assists per game) freshman who is a little wild and can't hit the broad side of a barn when he shoots (32% from the floor, 24% from three).  The compliment each other extremely well and both are excellent defenders, if a bit undersized.  It may work to have the Gopher guards (Coleman, both Hollinses) post them up.  I'm not sure what kind of post game the Gopher guards have, but given their size/strength advantage I'd love to see them try.

Lastly, the Hoosiers have a pretty talented and deep bench led by Will Sheehey who is their fourth leading scorer and a damn good athlete in his own right and also is kind of a dick.  Remy Abell, Jeremy Hollowell, Derek Elston, and the recently reinstated Hanner Mosquera-Perea and Austin Etherington were all highly regarded recruits and round out the Hoosier bench with a cast that's probably better than Iowa.

Breaking it down, I really don't see any clear advantages for the Gophers.  Their best bet is to play their game - tough defense, taking advantage of transition opportunities, and crashing the offensive glass - and hope a few things go their way.  Hope the Gophers' physical play can intimidate and render Zeller and Watford ineffective.  Hope they can play well enough to shut down Oladipo, and that they can push Indiana out of the lane and get them to settle for the same bad shots Illinois was taking (and hope Hulls doesn't hit them anyway).  Hope the Gophers can stay out of foul trouble, because even though their bench is good, Indiana's is great.  If anything is a weakness for the Hoosiers it's that they haven't faced a team as good as the Gophers yet, where the Gophers have already played Duke.  For Indiana, Georgetown is probably as physical but isn't as skilled, while Butler is as skilled as the Gophers but isn't nearly as physical.  North Carolina and Iowa both try to score in transition the way the Gophers do, but neither are on Minnesota's level.

In reality, Indiana is a X.X point favorite for a reason, and while the Gophers can probably make a real game of it at home trying to overcome Indiana's advantage at Assembly Hall (and Big Ten ref's propensity for playing to the crowd) is likely too big a task.  A close game ending with a 5-8 point Indiana win is the likely outcome.

And yet.

I remember a game back in 1997.  A game where a ranked Gopher team went into Assembly Hall to face a higher ranked Indiana team.  Things looked bleak.  The Hoosiers looked to control the game as time wound down, and it looked like another good Gopher team would just be good.  Then there was a three-pointer.  A steal.  And then Bobby Jackson hit a three from the corner and we were headed to overtime, where the Gophers ground out a 5-point victory.  And they were off.  Next stop, Final Four and the best Gopher team of my lifetime.  Well, maybe until now.

Minnesota 80, Indiana 76 (in OT).

Gophers vs. Hoosiers Live Blog

I'm not exactly certain why, but I'm going to live blog this game.  I'm a bit nervous because I fully expect that three-eighths of my body will be covered in vomit by the end of this and let's face it I'm not 28 anymore so that's not cool, but I'm going to do it anyway.  I had a work sponsored happy hour earlier and am now armed with five Coors Light silos and a giant vat of Mrs. W's delicious vinegar dill cucumbers so I'm feeling confident.  Confident I'll be done with this post in less than an hour, but I'm now committed so let's see I guess.

20:00 - Ahanmisi not in the starting lineup tonight.  It's like we've already won.

20:00 - I love how everyone is so confused about Tubby being 0-4 in conference and how it's a miracle.  It's not a miracle when you don't care.  It's like, it's not a miracle that I have no Wild pennants in my house.  It's just that hockey is for idiots and I don't give a crap.  Kind of like how I imagine Tubby feels about this job.

19:38 - Welch's slow feet commit a foul.  He's now officially slower than small white dudes.

19:34 - Rodney bringing the aggressive getting his own board off a miss and converting it into a 3-point play.  I'm feeling like it might be a Rodney night.  Not sure if Indiana really has anybody outside Oladipo who can handle him.

18:48 - Indiana attacking the paint early.  What a weird concept.  Speaking of such, what percentage of Mbakwe's shot attempts were off of offensive rebounds?  Gotta be like 80, no?

18:16 - 8 seconds on the shot clock and the Gophers hadn't crossed the 3-point line yet.  Austy Hollins takes it to the rack and gets a lay-up. MORE OF THIS MORE EARLIER PLZ!

17:40 - Coleman gets it in the paint and makes the lay-up.  7-4 Gophers.  What's will all this paint action?  I haven't seen anything like this since Bear and I were firing paintball guns out our windows at each other at 2am back in high school.  Ok, they were staple guns, but same thing.

16:58 - Zeller finds himself in a breakaway situation and Ralph chases him down and gives him a good hard, clean foul to prevent the lay-in.  The exact kind of foul he needed to throw Lewis Jackson's way against Purdue.  I don't know if I should be more frustrated or encouraged.  Maybe this is like when Zack learns he's native american and half-asses his assignment and the professor is all like "dude" and then he goes to talk to Chief Henry and gets all serious and is all like "I'm running Zack."  Now that I look at it, I'm not really sure how that relates but Saved by the Bell references are always a hit.

15:38 - Ralph scores in the paint to make it 11-8 Gophers.  Yes, in the paint.  I assume he got lost.

15:15 - #1 for Indiana isn't Jordan Hulls is it?  Cuz #1 is freaking terrible.

14:35 - Zellar lay-up, Ralph grabs it to throw it in to the guard guy, half-ass lobs it without paying any attention and Zeller steals it and scores again.  12-11 Indiana.  Time-out Gophers.  Uh oh, Rexy, I don't think this one has the distance.

13:17 - I should mention I'm watching this on tape delay on account of my stupid kids, and it's 9:02 right now and my phone just buzzed with a text.  I'm too scared to check it, seeing as this is about the time the game would have ended.  I know, I'm stupid.  But what if?

12:33 - Will Sheehey checks in.  I had no idea he was white. Kind of a Lew Ford moment for me here.

12:12 - Joe Coleman to the rack.  Blocked by Zellar, but at least he's got the stones to take it inside.  I dislike an awful lot about Coleman's game, but for a freshman there is a ton I like.  I can't wait to watch him not develop at all over the next 3+ years and/or transfer after year two.

11:44 - Christian Watford goes down with an apparent ankle injury.  Not to sound like a callous dick, but I hope he's out for the game.  Just the game, nothing serious or anything, just maybe take the night off.  You've had a good year, you deserve some rest.  Maybe bring a cheerleader or team booster back with you.  Crack open a nice bottle of wine and maybe eat some grapes or whatever.  Have a nice relaxing evening.

10:36 - Holy fuck.  Zellar just dream shaked Ralph resulting in an uncontested hammer dunk and I'm not sure Ralph's figured out where the ball is yet.  Wow.  Seriously that's gonna be a sportscenter thingy.  Which means the Gophers will show up on the plays of the day for the second time this year.  Huzzah!

9:45 - Chip for 3 (Gophers 19, Indiana 18).  guess how much room he had and how much time he took to take the shot:  wrong.  The answer is zero.

9:02 - Ahanmisi to the rack for a lay-up.  Where the shit was all this against Iowa and Purdue?  I swear to god if they win this game I'm going to be more pissed than happy.

8:02 - Wide open three for Indiana and he goes clang city.  Got to assume those will fall eventually.  Just like the 3 Maverick just hit to open up a 26-20 lead for the Gophers. Then Verdell Jones missed an open 8-foot jumper.  And just now as I'm typing Chip hits another three.  It's 29-20.  I hate this team for what they do to me.  I hate them so much.  I should be in bed right now.

7:04 - I forgot to pause it when I went upstairs to get a beer and it's 29-23 now.  That is all.

6:34 - Couple more text messages trickling in.  Perhaps this one is closer than I thought in the end.  No chance Gophers can win.  None.  God I hope I'm wrong I think.  I'm so tempted to read them.  What if they aren't even about basketball?  Maybe it's some hot chick texting me pictures of her boobs and I'm ignoring it?  I think I'll resist for now, but it's close.

6:04 - Fucking awful charge call.  And another text comes in.  Interesting.

5:21 - Indiana continues to clang open threes like a wrestling team an open gym.  If that continues and never mind because Jordan Hulls (who is indeed #1) just buried a 25 footer in Chip's face.  Nine point lead now down to one.  Waaah waah.

4:24 - Joe Coleman either lost an eye or a contact.  I'd write more but I was trying to fast-forward to half-time and this made me stop so I'm kind of annoyed.

3:52 - Fast forwarded to far.  Indiana now winning, mainly because the Hoosiers switched to a zone and the Gophers are all like oh my god I'm so confused until just now when Austy hits a 3 to give them back the lead so that was good.

3:01 - Rodney dunk.  Nice to see you again, sir.

1:49 - Watford's back and just missed a really stupid shot.  Keep it up.

0:12 - Oto, while the team has the shot clock off and is playing for one shot, puts up a three with 12 seconds left and airballs it.  Yikes.  There is so much wrong about that play I'd actually be a little bit stunned if he gets off the bench in the second half.

0:00 - Gophers lead 37-34 and my phone is absolutely blowing up (and I'm still ignoring it).  This is either going to be a heartbreaking loss or a heartbreaking win, if you know what I mean.  And if you don't you're stupid.

0:00 - Am I drunk or is that Gary Williams as part of the Big 10 Network half-time show?  Gary Williams?  The Maryland guy?  What the hell?  That doesn't even remotely make sense.  Maybe they should pull in John Chaney and Rollie Mossimino are available.

19:18 - Well this will shock you, but Julian Welch missed another lay-up (he did get fouled but it was one of those sissy fouls where you're supposed to make the shot).  If you take Welch and a 3rd grader and have them do a lay-up contest who wins?  Welch of course, but it's probably a little too close.

18:32 - Zeller gets it on the block against Sampson and for some reason goes for the fade-away jump hook instead of doing anything remotely aggressive - and misses.  Welch takes it to the rack and makes it on the other end and Gophers now lead 43-34.  The amount of rim attacking in this game has now convinced me that Tubby (well, probably whichever assistant he gets to do the actual gameplanning) reads this blog.  I'm definitely the only one who had that idea ever.

17:00 - Rodney misses a weird off-balance lay-up kind of thing badly and scarily, but he took it to the rim from the top of the key.  This is definitely a concerted effort by the Gophers to get to the rack.  Nicely done.  I try to get to the rack as often as possible as well.

16:42 - Verdell Jones just hit all backboard on a wide open 3-point attempt.  That kind of night so far for Indiana.  This is going to be crushing when the Gophers lose.

16:32 - Will Sheehey has a little bit of Punto to 'em.

15:51 - The announcers point out that Jordan Hulls hasn't played this half and wonder what his status is.  I'll tell you his status - he sucks.  Been a long time since I've been this unimpressed by somebody who was supposed to be awesome.  Jordan Hulls, the Dave Matthews of Indiana basketball.

14:30 - Zeller dream shakes Ralph again, less effectively but still makes the shot, then Oladipo steals the inbounds pass and gets fouled.  Misses both free throws.  I can't decide if this is an omen that it's the Gophers night or a sign that they're falling apart.

14:01 - Wow, Austin Hollins is having a hell of a game after taking it right at Zeller and making the lay-up to make it a 47-40 Gopher lead.  Must be rough for Lionel to have to watch his kid sit on the bench while his nephew lights it up.  And he just hit a real nice pull-up J to make it a NINE point Gopher lead.  I'm starting to think unthinkable things.  Can't wait to have my heart ripped out.

12:25 - Rodney lay-up.  51-40 Gophers.  I don't know who this team is that I'm watching.  All they do is attack the rim/paint.  It's a whole different team.

11:50 - Hey there's Hulls!  Watford just missed a jumper off a Hulls' pass.  Pretty sure it was Hulls fault.

10:54 - Coleman drives and draws the help in the paint so even thought he missed the shot nobody was there to block out Rodney for an easy tip in.  Gophers 53-45 (Indiana scored while I was typing).  I'm going to be honest here, if the Gophers lose this it's going to break my heart even though I thought they already broke it.  They're playing exactly how I want them to play (on offense) and Indiana is missing shots.  This has to be it.  It has to be.

9:22 - Moving pick called on Indiana (John Thompson would be so proud).  I happened while Hulls had the ball.  Pretty sure he fucked up and Watford was trying to fix it when he got called for the foul.

9:00 - Williams with a lay-up (again) and a made free throw for kicks.  They are just slaughtering Indiana in the paint which is exactly what they should do since Zeller is their only inside presence of note.  I have no idea who this team is.  It's like that movie where who you think somebody is isn't because they're someone else.  The Hot Chick.

8:43 - Look at these cucumbers.  You want these.  If you tasted these you would punch your wife or boyfriend in the face for not making them:

8:18 - Eliason just hit a 16-footer to make it 58-51 Gophers.  This was after like four straight Indiana points.  I repeat:  Eliason just hit a 16-foot jump shot.  Like, he made it.  This is not the Hoosiers night.  Until it is, of course.

8:00 - Jordan Hulls just missed a three.  He's 90% of the reason they're losing.  He's like a white Russ Archambeau who plays the whole game.  Also Julian Welch is really, really good when he gets in the lane not counting those times when he blew the game.  You know how Ralph is really a fancy pants nancy boy perimeter player in a 7-footer's body?  I think Welch is the opposite.  If they could swap bodies like Jamie Lee Curtis and Lindsay Lohan in that movie or whoever else in those 4000 other movies based on that same basic premise I think everybody would be happy.  Plus they'd get to sleep with each other's girlfriends and wouldn't really be cheating. 

6:10 - Jordan Hulls just tried to take a dive on a lay-up to draw the charge, but it wasn't called and the gopher guy who I think was Chip missed the lay-up but because Hulls was on the floor the Gophers got the offensive rebound and scored.  Hulls, single-handedly ruining the Hoosiers' season.

4:11 - Trade Oto.

3:22 - Sampson misses a hook shot, naturally (did you notice that Sampson is almost an acronym for tampon?) but Coleman gets not one but two shots at a tip-in and makes the second to put the Gophers up 66-59.  They're up 7 with 3 minutes to go.  I'm semi-hyperventilating.

3:11 - Rodney just fouled out.  So that's pretty shitty.  I've always said this whole "foul limit" thing was pretty fascist.

2:42 - Not to hammer this point home too much like I was Sid Hartman or jesus's dad, but I have no idea what team I'm watching tonight.  Welch misses a lay-up (naturally) and Osenieks, filling in for Godney, gets not one but two chances at a tip-in, making the second one.  It's like they somehow get how close the season is to slipping away.  Maybe should've figured that out a game (or two) earlier, but this is the team I had been expecting to see this year.

Please don't blow this.

2:19 - Welch misses another lay-up which, and I'm not joking, makes four in the second half alone.  Serioulsy.  Remember that joke about how he'd beat third grader in a lay-up contest?  Not so sure he wins anymore.  This is an epidemic.  If they lose this that will make three games he's blown this year.  He's like the Jenna Jameson of basketball.  Because of the blows thing.  Get it?  Whatever shut up.  I'm semi-drunk and a little bit delirious.

1:42 - Sampson knocks down a 17 footer to make it 70-62 Gophers.  They can't blow this, right?  Right?

1:27 - Hulls misses a three.  What an anchor.  Terrance Simmons like.

0:50 - Mav misses a free throw but Colmean ends up grabbing the board.  Probably Hulls' fault.

0:40 - Gophers turn it over on the inbounds play giving Indiana a lay-up and the foul.  This is the kind of shit I don't need.  Gophers up 71-68.

0:39 - Indiana fouls and the announcers are debating whether they should have, which is stupid because if you don't foul you might not get the ball back until there are only 4 seconds left in the game.  Announcers are all dumb. All of them.  Might as well just let women do it.

0:30 - Coleman hits both FTs (I love you) then Indiana hits a three (not Jordan Hulls) to cut it to 73-71.  Blood pressure rising.

0:29 - Hulls fouls Coleman who makes both free throws.  That's on you, Hullsy.

0:17 - Zeller goes for the lay-up and Hollins's's fouls him.  What.  The.  Fuck.  Once he gets inside the three-point line just let him go.  Good god.  Talk to Uncle Lionel one of these days about making smart plays.

0:02 - Hollins makes two, Hulls passes to the wrong guy who misses, and Welch is at the line for two.  Make one and we're looking at ball game and a very serious how the hell did that happen situation.  Like when Pam Beasley got boobs all of a sudden.

0:01 - Did that mother fucker miss both?  Of course he did.  Jesus H christ Julian Welch makes Lebron look like Larry Bird with this clutch shit.  He needs to be nowhere near the court in the last 3 minutes of any close game.

0:00 - Gophers win, .  Perfect storm my friends.  Gophers finally learned they need to attack the basket the same night Indiana stopped making jump shots.  Not taking anything away from it, it was a great win for the home town team and a great feather in their cap, but I don't think we can start talking NCAA Tournament yet because they dug themselves such a huge hole, but wow.  Just wow.  I didn't remotely see this coming.  If they play like this the rest of the way they can win a ton of games.  Don't forget Indiana beat both Kentucky and Ohio State in this same building.  I think I'll have more thoughts later or next week or tomorrow or something, need some time to fully process this.  I can't remember being this stunned.  They led this game pretty much wire-to-wire.  Obviously they need to do a whole hell of a lot more, but this win saved the season.

I'm gonna go to bed.  Joe Coleman is my hero.

Also suck it Sidler.

Big Ten Preview: #9 INDIANA HOOSIERS

Seems like every year we keep waiting for Indiana to put it all together, and every year they tease you a bit but then end up crashing down like that satellite in that Dave Matthews song.  I mean, on paper they should be a pretty good team:  Maurice Creek and Christian Watford were top 50 guys, with Verdell Jones, Jordan Hulls, Derek Elston, Verdell Jones, Will Sheehey, and Victor Oladipo were all top 150 guys.  To that they add Cody Zeller who ranks as #15.  Really, that's a lot of talent on paper.

Maurice Creek has had a whole bunch of knee and leg injuries leading him to look like a shell of his former self and now looks like he's probably out for the year after another surgery and Derek Elston has been pretty lame so far, but the rest of these guys are in various stages of interesting development.  Jones isn't going to be your lead dog any time soon but can score in bunches at times.  Christian Watford is one of the best all around players in the conference, if not the country.  Jordan Hulls is annoying as shit but he's a good quality point guard who takes care of the basketball and can score when needed.  Victor Oladipo has had some serious high-flying highlights and is looking like a superb athlete.  And I don't know what Sheehey is going to develop into but I see some serious Brian Cardinal potential going on.

The biggest key for this year is Zeller.  If he's an immediate impact player who can put up a nightly double-double or near it they have a chance to at least be on the NCAA bubble at the end of the year.  If he's a year away, so are they.  Scouting reports I've read seem to say that his offensive game is already in very good shape, but based on his size and strength he's going to get pushed around a bit, which will mean defensively and on the boards he could end up being a liability.

Big men (6-10 or bigger) in the Rivals top 20 haven't fared all that greatly lately in their first year:  Adreian Payne, Fab Melo, John Henson, MouphtaouYarou, Renardo Sidney, B.J Mullens, Ater Majok, Ty Walker, Terrence Jennings, and Tony Woods all struggled for one reason or another as freshmen.  The only two exceptions were one guy who was exceptionally athletic (Perry Jones) and one guy who was exceptionally skilled (Greg Monroe).  I don't think Zeller is exceptionally athletic, but there's an outside chance he could be exceptionally skilled (although Monroe had an NBA ready body already).  His brother Tyler made an impact on the Heels the first season he got playing time as sophomore (9 pts/5 rebs per game in 17 minutes per, was buried as a freshman).

I don't know what exactly to think, but he's hyped up the ass when in reality it should be Watford getting all the preseason press.  Maybe he'll live up to it right out of the gate, but I doubt it.  In any case Crean certainly has the Hoosiers heading back towards respectability and he's already got a monster class for 2012 - 4 top 150 guys with two in the top 20.

Great.

DWG Over/Under Conference Wins:  6

Game Preview: Minnesota Gophers vs. Indiana Hoosiers

Once again, rather than rehashing everything I wrote in the previous game vs. Indiana's preview (which you can peruse at your leisure right here), I'm going to just focus on some things that have changed since the last time these two teams met, a hard fought 67-63 Gopher win here in Minneapolis.

1)  So, like, is Indiana good now?  Let's not get crazy.  Despite the win over Illinois (vastly overrated) and pushing Michigan State to overtime (vastlier overrated), this still isn't a very good team, but there's no doubt they're are pesky, plucky, gritty, and very David Eckstein-y.  On top of that, they have actually developed one of the better offenses (efficiency wise) in the country, ranking at #41 in the country in that metric, although that's still 8th in the Big Ten.  The nearly all white guy Hoosiers are an excellent shooting team, knocking down 38.4% of their threes (37th) and 52.6% of their twos (29th) and any team that has the ability to shoot like that can be dangerous on any given night.

2)  What's up with this Jordan Hulls cat?  He's slowly developing into a hell of a point guard.  With Maurice Creek slowed and now out with that knee injury and Verdell Jones banged up as well, somebody had to step up and help out Christian Watford, and Hulls answered the call.  After scoring in double figures in just 5 of the team's first 12 games, he's now hit that mark in 10 of the last 11, and scored 17 and 18 in those two big games against the Illini and Spartans.  He can get loose from three (49% this year), but one of his biggest strength is putting the ball on the floor and getting into the lane.  I'm not so worried about Watford, because he does the majority of his damage inside and the Gopher bigs held him down in Minneapolis, but I'm very concerned about who checks Hulls with Nolen out.  That will probably decide this matchup. 

3)  Can the Hoosiers follow Purdue's blueprint to slowing the Gopher offense?  Purdue held the Gophers to their second-lowest point total of the season (and Wisconsin shouldn't count) and one of the main ways they did it was staying up in Hoffarber's face and making it very difficult to get the offense started anywhere near where it should, leaving Blake to pass off to the wing further out than they'd like.  I'd love to say this was an anomaly due to a great defender, but Purdue used Ryne freaking Smith.  With Hoff's (god love 'em) inability to drive past his defender, Indiana won't need a lightning quick defender to replicate this success.  All they'll need is a pesky, annoying white dude, and that is something their is no shortage of in Bloomington.

4)  So are we screwed without Al Nolen then?  If you remember back to the last time these teams played, the Gophers fell behind and were only able to come back and grab the win due to some incredible play from Nolen, causing me to write this love missive (which is probably more romantic than anything I've ever said to Mrs. W, sadly).  The way he brought the team back was simple enough:  getting passed his man and into the lane, then either scoring or finding an open teammate; simple enough for him, I should say.  Since the Gophers currently lack any player with the capacity to do that, other than maybe Chip Armelin whose ball-handling is too suspect, I'd say this doesn't bode well for them. 

5)  Is this a must win, and can they do it?  I wouldn't say it is a must win, because I think I'd actually be more impressed with a win than disheartened by a loss, but it is the kind of game that can help put a more accurate label on this team.  Road wins are always hard to come by in the Big Ten, and kenpom.com predicts that although the Gophers win it will be by a mere point, so you can expect a hard fought game.  I still believe that the three-big lineup is a huge weapon, and one that could potentially destroy Indiana (along with many other teams), but the Purdue game reminded me that it doesn't matter how good your big guys are, somebody has to get them the ball.

Indiana 66, Gophers 60

6)  Wait, after you wrote all this you just saw the news that Christian Watford is out for an indefinite period with a wrist injury.  Doesn't this change everything you wrote?  Yes.  Yes it does.  Now they're whiter, pluckier, and nearly devoid of any talent.

Gophers 70, Indiana 58

And finally, my Big Ten Power Poll for the week:

1)  Ohio State Buckeyes.  Not only the best team in the conference, but the best team in the country.

2)  Wisconsin Badgers.  No big surprise they were able to beat Purdue at home, but it was impressive the way they were able to come back with a minute left after squandering a 6-point lead late.  Who could have guessed Ryan Evans would be the guy who hit the biggest shot of the game? 

3)  Purdue Boilermakers.  They look good and definitely pass the eye test, but I can't really get on board until they manage a really good win.  Their two best victories are home wins over Michigan State and Minnesota - not the most impressive resume. 

4)  Minnesota Gophers.  Whether they are merely an NCAA Tournament team or an NCAA Tournament team that can do some damage depends on the success of the 3-big lineup, Blake's ability to handle the point, and the development of some freshman (and if Rodney Williams can step up an offer some consistent scoring).  That's probably too many ifs for this team to make a significant March run.

5)  Illinois Fighting Illini.  Most overrated team in America. 

6)  Penn State Nittany Lions.  Jeff Brooks went down with a shoulder injury last night and Penn State needed either Andrew Jones or David Jackson to step up to give them an inside presence if they were going to compete with Illinois - neither could do it.  If Brooks is out for any kind of extended period of time, even more than 1 game, kiss that long shot NCAA bid good-bye.

7)  Michigan State Spartans.  Most underachieving team in the country, or just that overrated?  Watching them try to play defense, I'm starting to lean towards the latter.  Something has to change, and in a hurry, or you're looking at an NIT team.  If anybody can figure this out, it's Izzo.

8)  Northwestern Wildcats.  The only thing keeping them this high is that they've beaten the three teams below them.  What a disappointing season for them.

9)  Michigan Wolverines.  Two game win streak is a nice start towards turning the ship around.  With a lot of youth on board - there isn't a single senior on the roster - they could be setting themselves up to be a nice sleeper team next year.

10)  Indiana Hoosiers.  The big win over Illinois finally gives Crean something to build on, but did the choke away of a second one (at Mich State) deflate the momentum?  If that didn't do it, the injury to Watford probably did - that's a killer.

11)  Iowa Hawkeyes.  The signs of life out of Indiana and Michigan doom Iowa to the basement