Game Preview: Gophers vs. Hoosiers

You guys remember way back when we thought the Gophers were a top 10 team with Final Four aspirations and they were going into Bloomington to play a monster game against the #5 Hoosiers?  And then Indiana played a perfect first half to jump out to a 23 point halftime lead and we like oh man?  And then the Gophers showed a tremendous amount of heart, hustle, and all out warrior mentality and came storming back and came within a botched rebound off a missed Indiana free throw of having a chance to improbably send the game to OT?  Well I have bad news and bad news:  Indiana is playing those perfect halves (sometimes two in one game) more and more often, while the Gophers have stopped showing any of those traits that helped get them back in the game at Assembly Hall.

Since that game, Indiana has gone 9-2 with blowout wins by 23 (Penn State), 37 (@ Purdue), 29 (Nebraska), and 28 (Purdue) to go along with marquee wins over #1 Michigan (by 8), @ #13 Michigan State (by 5), @ #10 Ohio State (by 13), and #4 Michigan State (by 4).  They started the season as a juggernaut and are finishing as a juggernaut.  They're blowing out bad teams and beating good teams, home and road.  Meanwhile the Gophers are limping into the end of the season with their only three victories since the game in Bloomington coming in a lucky OT win against #20 Wisconsin, a last second win over Iowa, and a blowout of terrible Nebraska.  Their last two games were a 19 point road loss at Iowa and a 26 point road loss at Ohio State.  To say these teams have gone in opposite directions is a bit of an understatement, like saying Jennifer Lawrence is decent looking.

Statistically it's tough to find anywhere the Gophers have an edge.  Minnesota should get some steals and block some shots and that's where the good news ends.  Indiana lights it up from three, the Gophers can't defend the three.  Minnesota turns it over like crazy, Indiana creates a good amount of turnovers.  The Hoosiers are a great free throw shooting team, the Gophers are slightly below average (and outside of Hollinses are terrible).  The Gophers biggest strength is getting offensive rebounds, and Indiana is adept at not allowing this to happen.  The closest thing to a weakness for the Hoosiers is that they do turn the ball over almost as much as an average team (19% of possessions vs. national average of 20.2%).  Can the Gophers play the kind of defense that forces Indiana into turning the ball over, all the while not getting too overextended with their aggression to allow open looks from both 3 and 2?  They'll have to.

Indiana is simply loaded.  They have two guys who are in the National Player of the Year discussion in Cody Zeller and Victor Oladipo who play different positions and impact the game in different ways and either or both can win a game basically on their own if they needed to.  They have the underpants gnome in Jordan Hulls whose range starts when he crosses half court and who hits 50% of his threes anyway.  All that without even mentioned Christian Watford yet, who might be the best inside/outside player in the conference.  Even their one-time offensive weakness, freshman point guard Yogi Ferrell, has started to figure it out after realizing that nobody can keep him out of the lane.  He still can't really shoot, but he's morphed into a Lewis Jackson type player, only one who still thinks he can hit threes - hopefully he takes a ton of them on Tuesday.

I realize everything I've written makes it sound like I think the Gophers have no chance, and that's not true, but I've just been so demoralized by the last two ass whippings it's tough to get positive right now.  Normally I could point to the Gophers outscoring Indiana 52-36 in the second half in Bloomington and springboard that to the Gopher upset, but unfortunately the current Gopher squad so little resembles that team in its play that it may as well be a different season.

Even so, that second half and the first Illinois and Michigan State games say this team still has the talent to pull this one out, even if their recent plays gives very little indication that it would be possible.  The players have to know just how big this game is, and if Tubby can find a little magic and rally the troops I still think the home court advantage in Williams could be enough to put the Gophers over the top, they just need a little bit to break right.

On the other hand, after looking lost for the better part of a month to the point where the players look to be close to quitting and Tubby can't blame the players for screw-ups fast enough the team almost looks like it's heading for a full breakdown.  If Indiana jumps out to, say, a 15-5 lead that might be enough for everyone to go into their shell, pack up their things, and call it a day.  That's why the first 8 minutes on Tuesday are going to be the most important.  If Minnesota stays close, even if they lose but show that same ability and mental toughness from earlier this season, it will make me feel much better about the final stretch.  If the Hoosiers win easily, however, it might be time to start making NIT plans.

Indiana 80, Minnesota 68.

Game Preview: Gophers vs. Indiana Hoosiers

You mean I have to write this preview already?  It feels like the Illinois game just ended.  And man, what a game.  The Gophers defense is absolutely ridiculous.  I've never seen a team handle their rotations so well, and even Joe Coleman is looking semi-competent on that end.  That defense creates so many opportunities to run, whether through turnovers or missed shots, and with the athletes they have it plays right into their strengths.  Even in the half-court they're playing incredibly efficient and finding open opportunities, and with five guys who can score 20+ in any given night opposing defenses can't key on any one player or in any one area.  The bench is a bit of a concern, but like Snacks pointed out to me it's really not THAT bad, it's just that the starters are so good that when the reserves are in it makes them look worse.  The Gophers have gotten really strong stretches from Welch, Ahanmisi, Ingram, Oto, and Elliason this year, and when Tubby goes with that lineup they've been able to keep the margin close to what it was when they came in, giving Tubby the chance to rest the good players so they can play all or nearly all of the second half.  This is awesome.

But, as the way this season goes, as long as I'd like to dwell in the happiness of this win over Illinois we move on and now face a top 5 ranked team in the country and the preseason favorite (according to Vegas) to win the whole thing in the Indiana Hoosiers.

The Hoosiers come in at 14-1, with the lone loss coming in overtime against Butler in Indianapolis in a game that went to overtime.  The most interesting thing to me about those 14 wins is that they may not have a single win over an NCAA Tournament team yet.  NDSU is one of the favorites to win the Summit, but not the clear favorite.  Georgetown is a bubble team at best who's 0-2 in the Big East, North Carolina is heading straight for the NIT, and Iowa is going to have to pull off some major upsets (pleasegodno) to make it.  Everyone else has been a creampuff.

I bring that up not to say Indiana is overrated - far from it.  They've played incredibly well this year, ranking 6th in overall offense and 7th in overall defense at kenpom.com, one of only three teams (along with Duke and Florida) to rank in the top 10 in both.  While the Gophers also fair extremely well in those ratings (10th & 14th) they have a couple of glaring weaknesses (turnovers and allowing offensive rebounds) while in comparison Indiana is above average in literally every single metric measured.  They're an extremely good shooting team who can also put the clamps down defensively, they rebound well on both ends of the court, and they get to the line often while not putting their opponents there.  They don't depend on the three-pointer but hit it with regularly when they're left open, move the ball well, and like the Gophers, have five guys who can go for 20+ on any given night and can hurt defenses in a variety of different ways.  In short, this isn't Illinois or even Michigan State, this is a legit national title favorite (top 3-4 for me).  It isn't going to be easy.

I don't even know where to start when it comes to individual players because there's so much, so let's just get to it.

Cody Zeller could win National Player of the Year and he'd deserve it.  He's got great moves around the rim and can score with either hand going either direction and has a decent jumper out to about 15.  He blocks a decent amount of shots due to his height but isn't an exceptional athlete although he's no slouch there either and can run the floor very well.  He's added some strength this year but if he has a weakness it's his physicality.  The best thing that could happen for the Gophers would be to have Mbakwe go right after him and knock him around on both ends of the floor, hoping they refs let a lot go, beat him up, and take him off his game.  Will that work?  I don't know, but it's what I'd try.

Next to Zeller is Christian Watford, who creates an interesting match-up with Rodney Williams because they're both kind of tweeners, but with different skill sets.  While Williams puts up his numbers with his incredible athleticism, Watford is the exact opposite in that he gets his numbers (and the two have very similar numbers) despite being known as somewhat unathletic due to fundamentals and positioning and other nerdy things like that.  The other big difference is while Rodney is a questionable (at best) jump shooter, Watford is a dead-eye from 3.  The other knock on Watford is that he can lose focus and kind of tune out the game, and the Gophers best chance is for Rodney to frustrate him on the offensive end and hope he tunes out a bit and doesn't crash the offensive boards the way he usually can.

The third guy I want to point out is swingman Victor Oladipo, who might be the second best athlete in the conference (behind Rodney).  Also like Rodney, when he came into college ball he was basically an athlete who played basketball, but has since morphed into a more complete player, and Oladipo is a rich man's Williams because he is a more efficient version than Williams with a good jump shot.  I mean, dude, the guy is shooting 67% from the floor and 48% from three while averaging similar point and rebound per game numbers to Williams.  The Gopher defense is going to have to be just as tight against Indiana as it was against Illinois because if Oladipo gets the ball with just a speck of daylight to the rim he's going to explode after it.  Hopefully somebody can draw a charge or two.

Those are your three main cogs, but there's plenty of other talent here as well.  Jordan Hulls and Yogi Ferrell form kind of a tandem point guard duo - Hulls the steady veteran who takes care of the ball and is a great (and very smart) shooter (hits 52% from the field and three despite being a perimeter guy), and Ferrell the exciting (5.1 assists per game) freshman who is a little wild and can't hit the broad side of a barn when he shoots (32% from the floor, 24% from three).  The compliment each other extremely well and both are excellent defenders, if a bit undersized.  It may work to have the Gopher guards (Coleman, both Hollinses) post them up.  I'm not sure what kind of post game the Gopher guards have, but given their size/strength advantage I'd love to see them try.

Lastly, the Hoosiers have a pretty talented and deep bench led by Will Sheehey who is their fourth leading scorer and a damn good athlete in his own right and also is kind of a dick.  Remy Abell, Jeremy Hollowell, Derek Elston, and the recently reinstated Hanner Mosquera-Perea and Austin Etherington were all highly regarded recruits and round out the Hoosier bench with a cast that's probably better than Iowa.

Breaking it down, I really don't see any clear advantages for the Gophers.  Their best bet is to play their game - tough defense, taking advantage of transition opportunities, and crashing the offensive glass - and hope a few things go their way.  Hope the Gophers' physical play can intimidate and render Zeller and Watford ineffective.  Hope they can play well enough to shut down Oladipo, and that they can push Indiana out of the lane and get them to settle for the same bad shots Illinois was taking (and hope Hulls doesn't hit them anyway).  Hope the Gophers can stay out of foul trouble, because even though their bench is good, Indiana's is great.  If anything is a weakness for the Hoosiers it's that they haven't faced a team as good as the Gophers yet, where the Gophers have already played Duke.  For Indiana, Georgetown is probably as physical but isn't as skilled, while Butler is as skilled as the Gophers but isn't nearly as physical.  North Carolina and Iowa both try to score in transition the way the Gophers do, but neither are on Minnesota's level.

In reality, Indiana is a X.X point favorite for a reason, and while the Gophers can probably make a real game of it at home trying to overcome Indiana's advantage at Assembly Hall (and Big Ten ref's propensity for playing to the crowd) is likely too big a task.  A close game ending with a 5-8 point Indiana win is the likely outcome.

And yet.

I remember a game back in 1997.  A game where a ranked Gopher team went into Assembly Hall to face a higher ranked Indiana team.  Things looked bleak.  The Hoosiers looked to control the game as time wound down, and it looked like another good Gopher team would just be good.  Then there was a three-pointer.  A steal.  And then Bobby Jackson hit a three from the corner and we were headed to overtime, where the Gophers ground out a 5-point victory.  And they were off.  Next stop, Final Four and the best Gopher team of my lifetime.  Well, maybe until now.

Minnesota 80, Indiana 76 (in OT).

Big Ten Preview: #9 INDIANA HOOSIERS

Seems like every year we keep waiting for Indiana to put it all together, and every year they tease you a bit but then end up crashing down like that satellite in that Dave Matthews song.  I mean, on paper they should be a pretty good team:  Maurice Creek and Christian Watford were top 50 guys, with Verdell Jones, Jordan Hulls, Derek Elston, Verdell Jones, Will Sheehey, and Victor Oladipo were all top 150 guys.  To that they add Cody Zeller who ranks as #15.  Really, that's a lot of talent on paper.

Maurice Creek has had a whole bunch of knee and leg injuries leading him to look like a shell of his former self and now looks like he's probably out for the year after another surgery and Derek Elston has been pretty lame so far, but the rest of these guys are in various stages of interesting development.  Jones isn't going to be your lead dog any time soon but can score in bunches at times.  Christian Watford is one of the best all around players in the conference, if not the country.  Jordan Hulls is annoying as shit but he's a good quality point guard who takes care of the basketball and can score when needed.  Victor Oladipo has had some serious high-flying highlights and is looking like a superb athlete.  And I don't know what Sheehey is going to develop into but I see some serious Brian Cardinal potential going on.

The biggest key for this year is Zeller.  If he's an immediate impact player who can put up a nightly double-double or near it they have a chance to at least be on the NCAA bubble at the end of the year.  If he's a year away, so are they.  Scouting reports I've read seem to say that his offensive game is already in very good shape, but based on his size and strength he's going to get pushed around a bit, which will mean defensively and on the boards he could end up being a liability.

Big men (6-10 or bigger) in the Rivals top 20 haven't fared all that greatly lately in their first year:  Adreian Payne, Fab Melo, John Henson, MouphtaouYarou, Renardo Sidney, B.J Mullens, Ater Majok, Ty Walker, Terrence Jennings, and Tony Woods all struggled for one reason or another as freshmen.  The only two exceptions were one guy who was exceptionally athletic (Perry Jones) and one guy who was exceptionally skilled (Greg Monroe).  I don't think Zeller is exceptionally athletic, but there's an outside chance he could be exceptionally skilled (although Monroe had an NBA ready body already).  His brother Tyler made an impact on the Heels the first season he got playing time as sophomore (9 pts/5 rebs per game in 17 minutes per, was buried as a freshman).

I don't know what exactly to think, but he's hyped up the ass when in reality it should be Watford getting all the preseason press.  Maybe he'll live up to it right out of the gate, but I doubt it.  In any case Crean certainly has the Hoosiers heading back towards respectability and he's already got a monster class for 2012 - 4 top 150 guys with two in the top 20.

Great.

DWG Over/Under Conference Wins:  6

Game Preview: Minnesota Gophers vs. Indiana Hoosiers

Coming into this year I thought the Indiana Hoosiers had a chance to surprise some people.  They certainly have some talent:  Christian Watford is one of the best forwards in the league, and he, guards Maurice Creek and Jordan Hulls, and forward Derek Elston were all top 100 recruits two seasons ago.  Junior Verdell Jones was a top 150 guy when he came out as well, as was freshman guard Will Sheehey.  So, at least on paper, there is some talent here.  For whatever reason, however, it just hasn't given stellar results.

Part of the problem stems from last year's unfortunate injury to Creek, who blew out his knee in the 12th game of his freshman year and was out for the season.  Prior to that point, Creek had been averaging 16.4 points per game, including a 31 point outburst against Kentucky.  Coming back this year, it seems he's not all the way back, whether it's physical or mental I don't know, because his scoring is way down at just 8.7 per game, and every other statistic is worse this season.  Maybe the biggest clue something is still wrong is his steals, which have dropped from 1.4 per game last year to a grand total of 3 so far this year in 15 games.  That sucks, and it's unfortunate for him, and it's a big reason the Hoosiers haven't been able to improve this year.

Not to say there isn't anybody putting up numbers here, because Christian Watford is a complete beast, and he's very good at scoring the basketball (not counting the Penn State game).  He leads the team in scoring at 17.2 per game, helped out quite a bit by an ability to get to the line (second in the conference with 99 attempts) and make his shots when he gets there (83%).  And although he mainly gets his points inside and mid-range, he can also hit the three-pointer when he's left open, hitting 16 of 28 attempts this year (42%).

Outside of Watford there isn't anybody who is a consistent threat.  Verdell Jones is the second leading scorer at 12.2 per game, but he's just as likely to score in single-digits as double (50% of each so far this year).  Behind them there are several guys who chip in a few per game, although the guys to really watch are point guard Jordan Hulls and wing Victor Oladipo, both of whom have scored in double figures in each of Indiana's last three games. 
 
The place where the Gophers can really get some points is, and this seems to be a common theme, in the paint.  Although Watford is a good rebounder (5.5 per game), nobody else on the team grabs more than 4.2 boards per game, and the only other players on the roster as tall as him at 6-8 are Elston, Bobby Capobianco and Tom Pritchard, and Pritchard and Capobianco rarely play and Elston's rarely makes his presence known on the court.

So, once again, the best way to win will be to get the ball into Sampson, Mbakwe, and Iverson and letting them go to work.  Not only is that the team's best way to score, but it will also help mitigate the loss of Devoe Joseph, who at present time is still on the team but won't be playing for an indefinite period of time.  I'll have more to say on this subject if he indeed ends up transferring, but for now let's just say he'll be a loss, but not a huge loss.

The most likely way the Gophers lose this one is also a familiar story, and that is once again playing poor defense.  Indiana hasn't been able to put together a good game against a good team, but overall they are a good shooting team.  They make 38.5% of their three-pointers, 41st in the country, and 54.5% of their two-pointers, which ranks 19th.  They've compiled those numbers against some very bad teams and haven't really come close to knocking off a quality opponent.  With the Gophers tendency to let teams get wide open looks, that could easily change tonight at Williams.

Minnesota 71, Indiana 66.

Some Stuff Quick

- Cry. Travis Busch is leaving the Gophers. The team declined to renew his scholarship, so Buschy is taking his ball and leaving which, with the graduation of Shamala, leaves the team dangerously low in the unathletic white guy department. The Daily Gopher reports that the Pioneer Press reports that Busch is getting interest from Winona State and Nebraska-Omaha, and I'm kind of surprised. I actually figured that his little hustle routine and pigmentless skin would have a higher profile team (like a Northern Iowa or Valpo) come calling, but it would seem not. Faith in the world slightly restored. Slightly.

- One of the things I'm most impressed with this early in the season is the improvement of Carlos Gomez's batting approach. His stats aren't staggering, but looking deeper (or even just watching him) you can see he's matured and made changes, and the Spring Training reports to that weren't just Spring fluff. Last season, according to fangraphs, Gomez swung at 36.8% of pitches thrown that were out of the strike zone, and so far this season he's only gone after 21.7%. He's even letting more balls in the zone go as well, swing at 58% of strikes this year compared 68% last season. Overall, he's swinging at just 34% of pitches this year, whereas last year he went after 53%. This is awesome, and should not only contribute to more walks and less strikeouts, but also to a higher batting average and slugging percentage as he stops going after pitches he can't hit. Excellent.

- Also excellent is Alexi Casilla turning the double play. I agree with The Fourth Strike that he and Punto might be the best double play combination in the league - fielding wise at least. Certainly not offensively, since Punto sucks and that honor pretty clearly goes to Hanley Ramirez and Dan Uggla in Florida.

- ESPN released their final list of the top 100 prospects, The ESPNU 100, for 2009. As you'd guess, two Gophers ended up in the top 100, with Royce coming in at #35 and Rodney at #42. According to this list, they end up being the #2 and #3 ranked freshman coming into the Big Ten for next season, since there isn't a whole lot of talent coming into the conference, behind just Indiana's Christian Watford at #34.

- Oh, and if you're wondering, last year Delmon Young swung at 39.9% of pitches out of the zone (fourth in the league) and this year he's so far gone after a whopping 60%, and overall has gone after a staggering 64% of pitches he's seen.

- Joe Crede just hit a home run in his first at-bat against the Sox. So awesome. Eat it, queers.

- The Masters is shaping up nicely, with a couple of surprises at the top of the leaderboard in Chad Campbell and Kenny Perry, with nearly all the big names in striking distance, including Furyk, Garcia, Kim, Singh, Ogilvy, Mickelson, Villegas, Westwood, Harrington, and el Tigre all within seven shots. Shaping up to be a fun weekend, although my new least favorite golfer in the world Zach Johnson won't be there after shooting a freaking 80 today. 80! Raymond Floyd is 66 years old and hasn't won on the Champions tour since 2000. There were only five rounds the entire first two days of the tournament worse. What a giant piece of crap. Thanks for sucking and making me look like an idiot.

- I have two movies queued up to live blog when I get a chance. The first is Shark Attack 3: Megalodon, which I have mentioned before and finally found again and Tivo'd, and The Sandlot 3, starring Dylan McKay which I can't wait to watch - it has to be better than Sandlot 2, which had girls playing ball for god's sake.

- Since baseball is harder to keep up with who is being Awesome and who is sucking in a given week, I'm considering going to a "Daily Review" every morning rather than just the weekly roundup. So that would mean daily content updates. Stay tuned.

- By the way, if you search this blog for "Shark" it returns 11 posts, only one of which references Greg Norman and zero of which reference the San Jose Sharks if they still exist. I may have a problem of some sort.

EDIT: Un-freaking-believable. I get my ESPN Streak for the Cash up to 10, and Phoenix gets beat by Memphis - and not only beat, they get rolled by 20. F that. Turns out Phoneix played their backups more than their starters. God that sucks.