And you thought Yogi Ferrell shot the ball a ton last year. Four hundred and nine times to be precise, a number that ranked 7th in the entire league. Considering Ferrell was supposed to be a "true" point guard, nobody else on the team even cracked 300 and only two other players shot over 200 times, and he was fourth in eFG% among those who played 50% of Indiana's minutes last season, that's probably not a good thing. Don't get me wrong, Ferrell had a pretty fantastic season overall and he deserved his All Big Ten status, but ignoring everyone else, particularly when you have a guy like Noah Vonleh on the team, either means you have a terrible coach or a very selfish player. Consider Tom Crean is the coach and Ferrell's usage rate skyrocketed once Crean didn't have his security blanket combo of Cody Zeller and Victor Oladipo to rely upon, I feel safe blaming it on Crean, mainly because he's an absolutely horrible coach and a terrible person.
Crean did take an Indiana program that Kelvin Sampson did his best to destroy from a 1-17 conference record in 2009 all the way to a national title contender in 2013 and he deserves credit for that. The problem is that now he seems to be reversing course and crashing the program back into the abyss with players fleeing left and right. Ferrell is back from last season and Vonleh heading to the NBA was inevitable, even if Crean completely mismanaged him. Will Sheehey and Evan Gordon graduated which isn't technically Crean's fault. But then the transfers: Austin Etherington to Butler, Jeremy Hollowell to Georgia State, Peter Jurkin to ETSU, and Luke Fischer to Marquette, All this with plenty of minutes available, leaving Indiana completely gutted on the inside.
It's debatable how much any of these guys would have helped, but 3 of the 4 played 10 or more minutes per game last season and all were big men. All of the impact returnees (Ferrell, Stanford Robinson, and Troy Williams) are guards or wings, and even though Crean is bringing in a highly regarded recruiting class the two big impact recruits are James Blackmon Jr. and Robert Johnson, both guards. No matter how good these guys are, and they are ranked in the top 50 overall by ESPN, they're both 6-3 or under. I just don't know how Indiana is going to compete in the Big Ten with this lack of size.
The returnees who could impact things are Williams, who is 6-7 but weighs just 207 lbs., Devin Davis, who could probably play in the paint but averaged just 8.8 minutes per game last year, and Hanner Mosquera-Perea, who is big enough but played less than Davis. Crean brought in two freshman centers but one is 6-9 and 200 lbs. and was described by ESPN as frail, and the other seems like a panic signing considering they nabbed in Spring (always a little scary) and his offer list was a little mid-major-y (actually both were Spring signings after all the transfers).
Don't get me wrong, if I'm an Indiana fan I could talk myself into some optimism. Ferrell, Blackmon, and Johnson could end up as the best backcourt trio in the conference by the end of the season.Mosquera-Perea, Williams and Robinson were all top 100 recruits as incoming freshman, and Davis played two of his best games of the year in the two games prior to their season finale (in which he played 6 minutes because Crean). I can see why most publications see this as rosier for the Hoosiers than I do, but do I think Crean can take this mix and blend them into a highly efficient basketball machine? Not remotely. I see him rolling the ball to Ferrell and telling him to run fast and shoot faster, which means the Hoosiers will be playing a lot of circus ball this year while being crappy at the same time. And that's kind of perfect.
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Showing posts with label Kevin Ferrell. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Kevin Ferrell. Show all posts
Thursday, October 9, 2014
Monday, February 25, 2013
Game Preview: Gophers vs. Hoosiers
You guys remember way back when we thought the Gophers were a top 10 team with Final Four aspirations and they were going into Bloomington to play a monster game against the #5 Hoosiers? And then Indiana played a perfect first half to jump out to a 23 point halftime lead and we like oh man? And then the Gophers showed a tremendous amount of heart, hustle, and all out warrior mentality and came storming back and came within a botched rebound off a missed Indiana free throw of having a chance to improbably send the game to OT? Well I have bad news and bad news: Indiana is playing those perfect halves (sometimes two in one game) more and more often, while the Gophers have stopped showing any of those traits that helped get them back in the game at Assembly Hall.
Since that game, Indiana has gone 9-2 with blowout wins by 23 (Penn State), 37 (@ Purdue), 29 (Nebraska), and 28 (Purdue) to go along with marquee wins over #1 Michigan (by 8), @ #13 Michigan State (by 5), @ #10 Ohio State (by 13), and #4 Michigan State (by 4). They started the season as a juggernaut and are finishing as a juggernaut. They're blowing out bad teams and beating good teams, home and road. Meanwhile the Gophers are limping into the end of the season with their only three victories since the game in Bloomington coming in a lucky OT win against #20 Wisconsin, a last second win over Iowa, and a blowout of terrible Nebraska. Their last two games were a 19 point road loss at Iowa and a 26 point road loss at Ohio State. To say these teams have gone in opposite directions is a bit of an understatement, like saying Jennifer Lawrence is decent looking.
Statistically it's tough to find anywhere the Gophers have an edge. Minnesota should get some steals and block some shots and that's where the good news ends. Indiana lights it up from three, the Gophers can't defend the three. Minnesota turns it over like crazy, Indiana creates a good amount of turnovers. The Hoosiers are a great free throw shooting team, the Gophers are slightly below average (and outside of Hollinses are terrible). The Gophers biggest strength is getting offensive rebounds, and Indiana is adept at not allowing this to happen. The closest thing to a weakness for the Hoosiers is that they do turn the ball over almost as much as an average team (19% of possessions vs. national average of 20.2%). Can the Gophers play the kind of defense that forces Indiana into turning the ball over, all the while not getting too overextended with their aggression to allow open looks from both 3 and 2? They'll have to.
Indiana is simply loaded. They have two guys who are in the National Player of the Year discussion in Cody Zeller and Victor Oladipo who play different positions and impact the game in different ways and either or both can win a game basically on their own if they needed to. They have the underpants gnome in Jordan Hulls whose range starts when he crosses half court and who hits 50% of his threes anyway. All that without even mentioned Christian Watford yet, who might be the best inside/outside player in the conference. Even their one-time offensive weakness, freshman point guard Yogi Ferrell, has started to figure it out after realizing that nobody can keep him out of the lane. He still can't really shoot, but he's morphed into a Lewis Jackson type player, only one who still thinks he can hit threes - hopefully he takes a ton of them on Tuesday.
I realize everything I've written makes it sound like I think the Gophers have no chance, and that's not true, but I've just been so demoralized by the last two ass whippings it's tough to get positive right now. Normally I could point to the Gophers outscoring Indiana 52-36 in the second half in Bloomington and springboard that to the Gopher upset, but unfortunately the current Gopher squad so little resembles that team in its play that it may as well be a different season.
Even so, that second half and the first Illinois and Michigan State games say this team still has the talent to pull this one out, even if their recent plays gives very little indication that it would be possible. The players have to know just how big this game is, and if Tubby can find a little magic and rally the troops I still think the home court advantage in Williams could be enough to put the Gophers over the top, they just need a little bit to break right.
On the other hand, after looking lost for the better part of a month to the point where the players look to be close to quitting and Tubby can't blame the players for screw-ups fast enough the team almost looks like it's heading for a full breakdown. If Indiana jumps out to, say, a 15-5 lead that might be enough for everyone to go into their shell, pack up their things, and call it a day. That's why the first 8 minutes on Tuesday are going to be the most important. If Minnesota stays close, even if they lose but show that same ability and mental toughness from earlier this season, it will make me feel much better about the final stretch. If the Hoosiers win easily, however, it might be time to start making NIT plans.
Indiana 80, Minnesota 68.
Since that game, Indiana has gone 9-2 with blowout wins by 23 (Penn State), 37 (@ Purdue), 29 (Nebraska), and 28 (Purdue) to go along with marquee wins over #1 Michigan (by 8), @ #13 Michigan State (by 5), @ #10 Ohio State (by 13), and #4 Michigan State (by 4). They started the season as a juggernaut and are finishing as a juggernaut. They're blowing out bad teams and beating good teams, home and road. Meanwhile the Gophers are limping into the end of the season with their only three victories since the game in Bloomington coming in a lucky OT win against #20 Wisconsin, a last second win over Iowa, and a blowout of terrible Nebraska. Their last two games were a 19 point road loss at Iowa and a 26 point road loss at Ohio State. To say these teams have gone in opposite directions is a bit of an understatement, like saying Jennifer Lawrence is decent looking.
Statistically it's tough to find anywhere the Gophers have an edge. Minnesota should get some steals and block some shots and that's where the good news ends. Indiana lights it up from three, the Gophers can't defend the three. Minnesota turns it over like crazy, Indiana creates a good amount of turnovers. The Hoosiers are a great free throw shooting team, the Gophers are slightly below average (and outside of Hollinses are terrible). The Gophers biggest strength is getting offensive rebounds, and Indiana is adept at not allowing this to happen. The closest thing to a weakness for the Hoosiers is that they do turn the ball over almost as much as an average team (19% of possessions vs. national average of 20.2%). Can the Gophers play the kind of defense that forces Indiana into turning the ball over, all the while not getting too overextended with their aggression to allow open looks from both 3 and 2? They'll have to.
Indiana is simply loaded. They have two guys who are in the National Player of the Year discussion in Cody Zeller and Victor Oladipo who play different positions and impact the game in different ways and either or both can win a game basically on their own if they needed to. They have the underpants gnome in Jordan Hulls whose range starts when he crosses half court and who hits 50% of his threes anyway. All that without even mentioned Christian Watford yet, who might be the best inside/outside player in the conference. Even their one-time offensive weakness, freshman point guard Yogi Ferrell, has started to figure it out after realizing that nobody can keep him out of the lane. He still can't really shoot, but he's morphed into a Lewis Jackson type player, only one who still thinks he can hit threes - hopefully he takes a ton of them on Tuesday.
I realize everything I've written makes it sound like I think the Gophers have no chance, and that's not true, but I've just been so demoralized by the last two ass whippings it's tough to get positive right now. Normally I could point to the Gophers outscoring Indiana 52-36 in the second half in Bloomington and springboard that to the Gopher upset, but unfortunately the current Gopher squad so little resembles that team in its play that it may as well be a different season.
Even so, that second half and the first Illinois and Michigan State games say this team still has the talent to pull this one out, even if their recent plays gives very little indication that it would be possible. The players have to know just how big this game is, and if Tubby can find a little magic and rally the troops I still think the home court advantage in Williams could be enough to put the Gophers over the top, they just need a little bit to break right.
On the other hand, after looking lost for the better part of a month to the point where the players look to be close to quitting and Tubby can't blame the players for screw-ups fast enough the team almost looks like it's heading for a full breakdown. If Indiana jumps out to, say, a 15-5 lead that might be enough for everyone to go into their shell, pack up their things, and call it a day. That's why the first 8 minutes on Tuesday are going to be the most important. If Minnesota stays close, even if they lose but show that same ability and mental toughness from earlier this season, it will make me feel much better about the final stretch. If the Hoosiers win easily, however, it might be time to start making NIT plans.
Indiana 80, Minnesota 68.
Thursday, January 10, 2013
Game Preview: Gophers vs. Indiana Hoosiers
You mean I have to write this preview already? It feels like the Illinois game just ended. And man, what a game. The Gophers defense is absolutely ridiculous. I've never seen a team handle their rotations so well, and even Joe Coleman is looking semi-competent on that end. That defense creates so many opportunities to run, whether through turnovers or missed shots, and with the athletes they have it plays right into their strengths. Even in the half-court they're playing incredibly efficient and finding open opportunities, and with five guys who can score 20+ in any given night opposing defenses can't key on any one player or in any one area. The bench is a bit of a concern, but like Snacks pointed out to me it's really not THAT bad, it's just that the starters are so good that when the reserves are in it makes them look worse. The Gophers have gotten really strong stretches from Welch, Ahanmisi, Ingram, Oto, and Elliason this year, and when Tubby goes with that lineup they've been able to keep the margin close to what it was when they came in, giving Tubby the chance to rest the good players so they can play all or nearly all of the second half. This is awesome.
But, as the way this season goes, as long as I'd like to dwell in the happiness of this win over Illinois we move on and now face a top 5 ranked team in the country and the preseason favorite (according to Vegas) to win the whole thing in the Indiana Hoosiers.
The Hoosiers come in at 14-1, with the lone loss coming in overtime against Butler in Indianapolis in a game that went to overtime. The most interesting thing to me about those 14 wins is that they may not have a single win over an NCAA Tournament team yet. NDSU is one of the favorites to win the Summit, but not the clear favorite. Georgetown is a bubble team at best who's 0-2 in the Big East, North Carolina is heading straight for the NIT, and Iowa is going to have to pull off some major upsets (pleasegodno) to make it. Everyone else has been a creampuff.
I bring that up not to say Indiana is overrated - far from it. They've played incredibly well this year, ranking 6th in overall offense and 7th in overall defense at kenpom.com, one of only three teams (along with Duke and Florida) to rank in the top 10 in both. While the Gophers also fair extremely well in those ratings (10th & 14th) they have a couple of glaring weaknesses (turnovers and allowing offensive rebounds) while in comparison Indiana is above average in literally every single metric measured. They're an extremely good shooting team who can also put the clamps down defensively, they rebound well on both ends of the court, and they get to the line often while not putting their opponents there. They don't depend on the three-pointer but hit it with regularly when they're left open, move the ball well, and like the Gophers, have five guys who can go for 20+ on any given night and can hurt defenses in a variety of different ways. In short, this isn't Illinois or even Michigan State, this is a legit national title favorite (top 3-4 for me). It isn't going to be easy.
I don't even know where to start when it comes to individual players because there's so much, so let's just get to it.
Cody Zeller could win National Player of the Year and he'd deserve it. He's got great moves around the rim and can score with either hand going either direction and has a decent jumper out to about 15. He blocks a decent amount of shots due to his height but isn't an exceptional athlete although he's no slouch there either and can run the floor very well. He's added some strength this year but if he has a weakness it's his physicality. The best thing that could happen for the Gophers would be to have Mbakwe go right after him and knock him around on both ends of the floor, hoping they refs let a lot go, beat him up, and take him off his game. Will that work? I don't know, but it's what I'd try.
Next to Zeller is Christian Watford, who creates an interesting match-up with Rodney Williams because they're both kind of tweeners, but with different skill sets. While Williams puts up his numbers with his incredible athleticism, Watford is the exact opposite in that he gets his numbers (and the two have very similar numbers) despite being known as somewhat unathletic due to fundamentals and positioning and other nerdy things like that. The other big difference is while Rodney is a questionable (at best) jump shooter, Watford is a dead-eye from 3. The other knock on Watford is that he can lose focus and kind of tune out the game, and the Gophers best chance is for Rodney to frustrate him on the offensive end and hope he tunes out a bit and doesn't crash the offensive boards the way he usually can.
The third guy I want to point out is swingman Victor Oladipo, who might be the second best athlete in the conference (behind Rodney). Also like Rodney, when he came into college ball he was basically an athlete who played basketball, but has since morphed into a more complete player, and Oladipo is a rich man's Williams because he is a more efficient version than Williams with a good jump shot. I mean, dude, the guy is shooting 67% from the floor and 48% from three while averaging similar point and rebound per game numbers to Williams. The Gopher defense is going to have to be just as tight against Indiana as it was against Illinois because if Oladipo gets the ball with just a speck of daylight to the rim he's going to explode after it. Hopefully somebody can draw a charge or two.
Those are your three main cogs, but there's plenty of other talent here as well. Jordan Hulls and Yogi Ferrell form kind of a tandem point guard duo - Hulls the steady veteran who takes care of the ball and is a great (and very smart) shooter (hits 52% from the field and three despite being a perimeter guy), and Ferrell the exciting (5.1 assists per game) freshman who is a little wild and can't hit the broad side of a barn when he shoots (32% from the floor, 24% from three). The compliment each other extremely well and both are excellent defenders, if a bit undersized. It may work to have the Gopher guards (Coleman, both Hollinses) post them up. I'm not sure what kind of post game the Gopher guards have, but given their size/strength advantage I'd love to see them try.
Lastly, the Hoosiers have a pretty talented and deep bench led by Will Sheehey who is their fourth leading scorer and a damn good athlete in his own right and also is kind of a dick. Remy Abell, Jeremy Hollowell, Derek Elston, and the recently reinstated Hanner Mosquera-Perea and Austin Etherington were all highly regarded recruits and round out the Hoosier bench with a cast that's probably better than Iowa.
Breaking it down, I really don't see any clear advantages for the Gophers. Their best bet is to play their game - tough defense, taking advantage of transition opportunities, and crashing the offensive glass - and hope a few things go their way. Hope the Gophers' physical play can intimidate and render Zeller and Watford ineffective. Hope they can play well enough to shut down Oladipo, and that they can push Indiana out of the lane and get them to settle for the same bad shots Illinois was taking (and hope Hulls doesn't hit them anyway). Hope the Gophers can stay out of foul trouble, because even though their bench is good, Indiana's is great. If anything is a weakness for the Hoosiers it's that they haven't faced a team as good as the Gophers yet, where the Gophers have already played Duke. For Indiana, Georgetown is probably as physical but isn't as skilled, while Butler is as skilled as the Gophers but isn't nearly as physical. North Carolina and Iowa both try to score in transition the way the Gophers do, but neither are on Minnesota's level.
In reality, Indiana is a X.X point favorite for a reason, and while the Gophers can probably make a real game of it at home trying to overcome Indiana's advantage at Assembly Hall (and Big Ten ref's propensity for playing to the crowd) is likely too big a task. A close game ending with a 5-8 point Indiana win is the likely outcome.
And yet.
I remember a game back in 1997. A game where a ranked Gopher team went into Assembly Hall to face a higher ranked Indiana team. Things looked bleak. The Hoosiers looked to control the game as time wound down, and it looked like another good Gopher team would just be good. Then there was a three-pointer. A steal. And then Bobby Jackson hit a three from the corner and we were headed to overtime, where the Gophers ground out a 5-point victory. And they were off. Next stop, Final Four and the best Gopher team of my lifetime. Well, maybe until now.
Minnesota 80, Indiana 76 (in OT).
But, as the way this season goes, as long as I'd like to dwell in the happiness of this win over Illinois we move on and now face a top 5 ranked team in the country and the preseason favorite (according to Vegas) to win the whole thing in the Indiana Hoosiers.
The Hoosiers come in at 14-1, with the lone loss coming in overtime against Butler in Indianapolis in a game that went to overtime. The most interesting thing to me about those 14 wins is that they may not have a single win over an NCAA Tournament team yet. NDSU is one of the favorites to win the Summit, but not the clear favorite. Georgetown is a bubble team at best who's 0-2 in the Big East, North Carolina is heading straight for the NIT, and Iowa is going to have to pull off some major upsets (pleasegodno) to make it. Everyone else has been a creampuff.
I bring that up not to say Indiana is overrated - far from it. They've played incredibly well this year, ranking 6th in overall offense and 7th in overall defense at kenpom.com, one of only three teams (along with Duke and Florida) to rank in the top 10 in both. While the Gophers also fair extremely well in those ratings (10th & 14th) they have a couple of glaring weaknesses (turnovers and allowing offensive rebounds) while in comparison Indiana is above average in literally every single metric measured. They're an extremely good shooting team who can also put the clamps down defensively, they rebound well on both ends of the court, and they get to the line often while not putting their opponents there. They don't depend on the three-pointer but hit it with regularly when they're left open, move the ball well, and like the Gophers, have five guys who can go for 20+ on any given night and can hurt defenses in a variety of different ways. In short, this isn't Illinois or even Michigan State, this is a legit national title favorite (top 3-4 for me). It isn't going to be easy.
I don't even know where to start when it comes to individual players because there's so much, so let's just get to it.
Cody Zeller could win National Player of the Year and he'd deserve it. He's got great moves around the rim and can score with either hand going either direction and has a decent jumper out to about 15. He blocks a decent amount of shots due to his height but isn't an exceptional athlete although he's no slouch there either and can run the floor very well. He's added some strength this year but if he has a weakness it's his physicality. The best thing that could happen for the Gophers would be to have Mbakwe go right after him and knock him around on both ends of the floor, hoping they refs let a lot go, beat him up, and take him off his game. Will that work? I don't know, but it's what I'd try.
Next to Zeller is Christian Watford, who creates an interesting match-up with Rodney Williams because they're both kind of tweeners, but with different skill sets. While Williams puts up his numbers with his incredible athleticism, Watford is the exact opposite in that he gets his numbers (and the two have very similar numbers) despite being known as somewhat unathletic due to fundamentals and positioning and other nerdy things like that. The other big difference is while Rodney is a questionable (at best) jump shooter, Watford is a dead-eye from 3. The other knock on Watford is that he can lose focus and kind of tune out the game, and the Gophers best chance is for Rodney to frustrate him on the offensive end and hope he tunes out a bit and doesn't crash the offensive boards the way he usually can.
The third guy I want to point out is swingman Victor Oladipo, who might be the second best athlete in the conference (behind Rodney). Also like Rodney, when he came into college ball he was basically an athlete who played basketball, but has since morphed into a more complete player, and Oladipo is a rich man's Williams because he is a more efficient version than Williams with a good jump shot. I mean, dude, the guy is shooting 67% from the floor and 48% from three while averaging similar point and rebound per game numbers to Williams. The Gopher defense is going to have to be just as tight against Indiana as it was against Illinois because if Oladipo gets the ball with just a speck of daylight to the rim he's going to explode after it. Hopefully somebody can draw a charge or two.
Those are your three main cogs, but there's plenty of other talent here as well. Jordan Hulls and Yogi Ferrell form kind of a tandem point guard duo - Hulls the steady veteran who takes care of the ball and is a great (and very smart) shooter (hits 52% from the field and three despite being a perimeter guy), and Ferrell the exciting (5.1 assists per game) freshman who is a little wild and can't hit the broad side of a barn when he shoots (32% from the floor, 24% from three). The compliment each other extremely well and both are excellent defenders, if a bit undersized. It may work to have the Gopher guards (Coleman, both Hollinses) post them up. I'm not sure what kind of post game the Gopher guards have, but given their size/strength advantage I'd love to see them try.
Lastly, the Hoosiers have a pretty talented and deep bench led by Will Sheehey who is their fourth leading scorer and a damn good athlete in his own right and also is kind of a dick. Remy Abell, Jeremy Hollowell, Derek Elston, and the recently reinstated Hanner Mosquera-Perea and Austin Etherington were all highly regarded recruits and round out the Hoosier bench with a cast that's probably better than Iowa.
Breaking it down, I really don't see any clear advantages for the Gophers. Their best bet is to play their game - tough defense, taking advantage of transition opportunities, and crashing the offensive glass - and hope a few things go their way. Hope the Gophers' physical play can intimidate and render Zeller and Watford ineffective. Hope they can play well enough to shut down Oladipo, and that they can push Indiana out of the lane and get them to settle for the same bad shots Illinois was taking (and hope Hulls doesn't hit them anyway). Hope the Gophers can stay out of foul trouble, because even though their bench is good, Indiana's is great. If anything is a weakness for the Hoosiers it's that they haven't faced a team as good as the Gophers yet, where the Gophers have already played Duke. For Indiana, Georgetown is probably as physical but isn't as skilled, while Butler is as skilled as the Gophers but isn't nearly as physical. North Carolina and Iowa both try to score in transition the way the Gophers do, but neither are on Minnesota's level.
In reality, Indiana is a X.X point favorite for a reason, and while the Gophers can probably make a real game of it at home trying to overcome Indiana's advantage at Assembly Hall (and Big Ten ref's propensity for playing to the crowd) is likely too big a task. A close game ending with a 5-8 point Indiana win is the likely outcome.
And yet.
I remember a game back in 1997. A game where a ranked Gopher team went into Assembly Hall to face a higher ranked Indiana team. Things looked bleak. The Hoosiers looked to control the game as time wound down, and it looked like another good Gopher team would just be good. Then there was a three-pointer. A steal. And then Bobby Jackson hit a three from the corner and we were headed to overtime, where the Gophers ground out a 5-point victory. And they were off. Next stop, Final Four and the best Gopher team of my lifetime. Well, maybe until now.
Minnesota 80, Indiana 76 (in OT).
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