Bill Simmons Talks College Prospects. Oy.

I'm a big fan of Bill Simmons, have been for years.  One of his biggest flaws, however, is he never ever watches college basketball outside of the NCAA Tournament, yet when draft time rolls around he likes to talk as if he is actually knowledgeable about the players outside of whatever he has recently read or been told.  I will never forget his column where he acted like he was breaking the news that Kevin Durant was awesome at Texas, despite it being mid-season.  He also likes to form an opinion and refuse to let anything break it, including facts.  With this in mind, I listened to the Simmons/Chad Ford podcast regarding the draft.  Here are some highlights.

1.  Victor Oladipo's upside is a cross between Alvin Robertson and Joe Dumars.  Because he was one of the best interviews Bill Simmons did of the future rookies and said that if he had to play the Heat in South Beach he wouldn't go out to the bars the night before a game.

2.  Oladipo could have played in the Spurs/Heat Finals because he tries hard.

3.  Otto Porter red flag:  doesn't think he'll be able to score in the NBA.  Porter, who shot 42% from 3, 41% on jump shots, and 66% in the paint.  Also said Porter reminded him of Tayshaun Prince and that's a bad thing despite Prince's career 58.6 win shares, which is the fourth highest total of anybody taken in the 2002 Draft.

4.  More Porter: Doesn't think he'll really be able to play defense in the NBA (Porter averaged nearly 2 steals per game, which is a good indicator of the athleticism needed to play defense in the NBA something Chad Ford actually talked about maybe 15 minutes earlier in this same podcast).  Also worried that Porter couldn't hit threes even though he hit 42% last year, something Simmons actually acknowledges but shrugs it off because "He only took like 3 a game", which, because this is college and not the NBA, actually ranked 30th most in the conference. 

5.  This one's actually from Ford, but he said Ben McLemore can't get to the rim.  Ben McLemore took 31% of his shots last year at the rim.  Outside of Oladipo's freakish 61% that's the highest percent among the guards in this draft.  Simmons' take was that McLemore can be a three-point machine.  McLemore hit the exact same 42% Otto Porter did.  Simmons also thought McLemore was a "sweet kid" and it was a great interview.  Sensing a pattern. 

6.  Alex Len "was pretty impressive when we talked to him" followed by a shit load of nice things about him including "he doesn't have any weaknesses except maybe rebounding."  First, rebounding is pretty important for a center, but he's wrong anyway.  Second, this is again Simmons not understanding college stats because Len was fourth in the ACC in rebounding (but "just" 7.8 per game).  Len's offensive and defensive rebounding percentages are both pretty good, but his overall numbers suffer because he played 26 minutes per game.  That would be a much bigger concern for me than the rebounding.

7.  Did not like his interview with Shabazz Muhammad and it made him like him less as a draft pick.  I actually thought this was unconscious bias, but it turns out he's actively admitting to it.  I wonder if he can pick up the fact that he's doing things like trashing Otto Porter's game because he didn't like his interview.  I doubt it.  Also just said he loved his interview with C.J. McCollum and in the next sentence he could be the next Jason Terry with a downside of a better Eddie House.  Now I like McCollum, but his downside is a whole hell of a lot worse than a better Eddie House.  Sorry if he's super likable.

Actually not as terrible as I was expecting or as he's been in the past.  The whole "interview" thing was a nice wrinkle that kept me entertained in the absence of more uninformed opinions.  I would say I hope you enjoyed reading this as much as I enjoyed listening to the podcast, but that would be a lie because I promise you I don't care.

Wolves NBA Draft Notes

The NBA Draft is June 27th and the Timberwolves have the 9th and 26th picks. Let's look at what might be there at #9.

Flip Saunders has made it no secret that he has a burning desire for Indiana shooting guard Victor Oladipo.  After working out some players on Thursday he hopped a plane to go see Oladipo in DC.  Everyone knows that Oladipo is a good defender, but he's been climbing mock drafts based on his improvements in his offensive game.  Oladipo would be a great fit for the Wolves, but is it better to try and get a big man at 9 and wait on a shooter until 26 given the depth there in this draft?  Or do they just take the best available guy?  Or dangle Williams in a deal to move up to get "their guy"?

Here's a vid of Oladipo scoring against no defenders:

 
BTW, I like those drills where they whack on the guy with pads while he's in the lane.  Good stuff.

So, what do the Wolves need besides having everyone heal up and stop doing knuckle pushups?  Here's the roster and their contract length:

PG:
Ricky Rubio through 14/15
Luke Ridnour through 13/14
JJ Barea through 14/15

SG:
Alexey Shved through 15/16
Malcolm Lee through 13/14

SF:
Andrei Kirilenko PLAYER OPTION
Chase Budinger FREE AGENT

PF:
Kevin Love through 15/16
Derrick Williams through 14/15
Dante Cunningham TEAM OPTION

C:
Nikola Pekovic FREE AGENT
Greg Stiemsma TEAM OPTION

Other FA/Release: Brandon Roy, Josh Howard, Louis Amundson, Wil Conroy, Mickael Gelabale

Official free agency negotiations don't begin until July 1, so the Wolves have some opportunity to be flexible in the draft.  Needs still appear to be a shooting guard that can defend and shoot from the outside and a big man.  Budinger is a nice option presuming he can bounce back, but I certainly wouldn't begrudge the Wolves trying to get a legit SF as Kirilenko plays a lot of 4 and is no spring chicken.  Ridnour and Barea are both serviceable players as backups at the point -- unfortunately they've been pressed into much more service than you'd like.  Shved also can play some point, so I don't think it's a huge need.  There's some depth at the 4, even if Williams is moved.  I refuse to list Williams as a 3 since he's proven he can't do it.

For the bigs, Nikola Pekovic is pretty much a must sign even though he'll cost the Wolves a lot of cash.  Stiemsma showed some energy and defense at times, but I was surprised at how many mistakes he makes on the court as well.  I do like his shot blocking, but if we score someone in the draft in might be worth saving the money it costs to bring him back.  The Wolves have until July 17th to decide, so they can draft and even consider potential free agent options before making a move.

Looking at a bunch of mock drafts the consensus is Oladipo will be gone by the #9 spot.  I've seen a couple of 8s, a 6 and even a 5 pick for him. If he's there at 8 would the Pistons move back a pick for the #26 selection?  Maybe.  Is it worth it?  I lean a little more towards keeping the #26 and taking two stabs in a draft that seems to have a big group of guys that aren't separated by much.

For the #9, the mock draft group-thinkers almost all think that CJ McCollum out of Lehigh is the pick.  McCollum is terrific with the ball in his hands and can shoot (51% from 3).  He even got a Stephen Curry comparison from Hoopshype.com.  He's also a big time transition scorer, which fits well with Rubio.  What he doesn't have is size (6'3") and he's not much of a defender.  He's also a senior, so what you see might be what you get.  Here's an incredibly long youtube clip about him:

The odd man out on the four mocks I looked at had the Wolves taking Shabazz Muhammad, the 6'6" shooter out of UCLA.  They must have assumed that Wolves brass where watching his 6 of 18 performance against the Gophers in the NCAA Tournament.  Or the fact that he's now magically 20 instead of 19 years old.  In other mocks I reviewed he's at #17 (twice) and #13th.  Most consider him not an amazing athlete like an Oladipo, but he's a high volume shooter and some believe he still has upside.  He also has Tourette's Syndrome which is pretty kickass.  He's also a lefty with a beard, so obviously he's the next James Harden.

Another wing to consider is Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, a sophomore out of Georgia.  Caldwell-Pope is right in that 9-13 range at the end of the lottery by most mocks.  I've seen him in the 10 spot to Portland a few times.  Paul Allen (Blazers owner, not homer Vikings guy) even attended a workout.  Kentavious is a very good shooter and at 6'5" 205, he's got decent size.  He's also a pretty great rebounder, notching 7.1 a game; which means he's not afraid to mix it up at least I guess.  KCP is also considered a very good defender and kicked butt in speed and agility drills.  I dig him and wouldn't mind him at #9 one bit. 

There are also some big men that are near the #9 spot in the mock drafts.  The bonus of taking a big instead of a wing is there are a lot of wings later in the draft that could be had at #26.  However, if Nikola is signed and delivered, the SG/SF is the greater need.  Here's a quick look at a few big men:

Zeller doesn't need to see to dunk

Cody Zeller,  6'11" Soph Indiana -- Zeller has been previously thought of as a sure fire top 5 pick, but his stock has slid in some circles. He looks like a big goofus but he's incredibly athletic for his size.  He recorded a 33.5" standing vertical leap, which is like crazy high.  In fact, it's the best by anyone over 6'8" in more than ten years.  He shoots a nice jumper and runs like a mofo.  He'd be a great change of speed with Pek banging around in the middle.

Steven Adams 7' Frosh Pitt -- Adams is a big bad man in the middle.  The seven footer clocks in with a 7'4.5" wingspan and had a great combine where he flashed a pretty nice jumper.  He also has gigantic hands. Adams is another player I'd be ok with in the 9 spot. 

Lucas Nogueria (Bebe) 7' Spain -- Bebe has been linked to Philly at #11 in a few mock drafts after a recent good showing at the Eurocamp.  He's athletic for a man with a 7'6" wingspan. At just 220 pounds his body is not quite ready for the NBA.  He's about as high risk, high reward as it gets as he was previously though of as a stud in the making and then had a poor showing in 2011 at Eurocamp.  I like the untapped potential, but not at #9 overall.

Kelly Olynyk 6'11" Junior Gonzaga -- I've seen Olynyk in the #15 range in mocks so I'm throwing him on this list.  It could be the goofy hair, but he has a bit of a Luis Scola vibe to him.  The NBADraft.net comparison is Fabricio Oberto, so there's that.  He's getting a lot of "skilled" big man comments on the internet and he backed that up with 18.1ppg on 66% shooting.   In addition to looking goofy he also has a freakishly short wingspan for his height.  He's 6'10.75" without shoes and has 6'9.75" arms. 


So there you have it.  I'm at least 72% sure that one of these guys is on the Timberwolves come draft night (barring a trade).  I'll take a look at the #26 pick next week.

Wait, what? Gophers beat who?

Wow.  That was unexpected.  I'm pretty sure I can't write anything too intelligent or insightful right now since I was pretty much watching that game on pure emotion, but I can throw down a few thoughts because if you're like me you are just going to spend all day at work reading everything you can find about the game.  So I'll sit here with my celebratory cognac (fine, vodka and coke) and write a couple of thoughts.  Also, it's not coke, it's R.C.   *hangs head in shame

[NOTE:  This formatting is horrendous.  I'd fix it but I have no idea how.]

• This was the Gopher team we saw in the early season.  If they can play like this to close out the year they're a sweet 16 contender again.
• This wasn't a case of Indiana playing poorly, the Gophers simply outplayed them.
• I thought Dre Hollins would be the one to step up and carry the team if anybody did, but no question it was Mbakwe setting the tone in the first half.  Remember last year at the beginning of the season when the Gophers would spend three quarters of the game struggling against crappy teams and then Mbakwe would be all like "ok, I'm getting every missed shot now" and carry them back to a win?  Yeah, that's what he was again tonight.  Was amazing.
• Really, nobody played poorly though.  Even those who didn't play well overall made huge plays at some point.  Hollins, Hollins, and Rodney all shot poorly, but Dre hit some huge shots down the stretch (including that monster three down the stretch which, right before, I told the Bear (who came to the game with me) that if the Gophers hit a 3 on that possession I'd do something unspeakable to him so well, there's that), Austin had a couple of huge plays, and Rodney had that big Hakim Warrick style block on an Oladipo three as time was running out.  Everybody came up with a big play at some point.  Everybody.  Even the 5 second call on Indiana came when Mo Walker was in the game.  He had nothing to do with it, but he was there.
• Some will say this is enough to guarantee the Gophers a tournament berth no matter what happens the rest of the way.  I'm not quite that certain, but at this point I'm confident if they can beat either Penn State at home OR Nebraska on the road that will do it.  Obviously the more wins they can get the better the seed, but as long as the Gophers don't go 0-4 to finish up (including the B10 tournament) it should be the easiest Selection Sunday in years.  Decades, really.
• I've gone on record as saying I'm terrified of a Mo Walker/Elliott Elliason starting front court next season.  No longer.  I'm not exactly fired up about it, but Elliason has done enough go convince me at worst he can be a Trevor Winter type, and he has two years to get better.  Walker has shown enough flashes of potential to at least temper my scaredness.  With Hollins, Hollins, and Coleman still going to be around those two just have to be not terrible for the team to at least be in contention for an NCAA bid.  Still hoping and believing in a Chuck Buggs breakout.  Believe with me.
• Speaking of believing, man did whoever is in charge of music botch the "Don't Stop Believing" music in the final minute or so of the game.  Started it too late and never even got to the chorus.  Horrible.
• Cody Zeller is every bit as good as advertised.  He is smooth in the paint and has a bunch of really good moves he can go to on the block.  He's also a bit soft, however, and disappeared after Mbakwe, Elliason, and Williams reminded him that this is the Big Ten and pushing people and elbows and what not is the norm.  I heard someone mention that Indiana stopped looking for Zeller, but really Zeller stopped posting up hard in the second half.  Sorry, but it's true.
• Also Victor Oladipo is ridiculous.  If I had any criticism of Indiana tonight it's that they didn't just iso Oladipo every single time they had the ball, because Joe Coleman was the primary defender on him tonight and I'm sorry I like Coleman but he is a horrendous defender.  Oladipo beat him to the paint every time he tried, and there were a couple of times I watched Coleman stand still as if rooted to the ground when he should have been providing some weak side help.  Again, I like the guy a lot, but he's a horrific defender.
• That being said, overall the defense was outstanding tonight.  Holding both Watford and Zeller to single digit scoring was huge, especially because Watford picked up six of his eight on shitty late threes that were half luck.  Plus shutting down Hulls after his huge first half was big, and it happened because of more awareness of where he was and just a swarming defense that refused to give up good looks.  We saw that kind of defense earlier in the year but it has since bailed, good to see it again. 
• I haven't seen video of the play but Will Sheehey should be ashamed of himself if he really flopped there in the last 30 seconds or so, looking for a cheap flagrant against Dre Hollins.  Crean should be even more ashamed if he encouraged him to do it.  It's a rule that makes sense if common sense was applied, but it's not and it's reared it's ugly head too much this year in stupid places.  To try to take advantage of it is embarrassing.  I'd like to say you're better than that Crean, but I know you're not.  ASS.
• 10 turnovers.  That's it for the Gophers.  Despite everything else I've written, which as usual is way more than I intended, that was really the key.  Well that and the 17 offensive rebounds, but that's to be expected.  This team is good enough to beat anyone in the country if they don't turn it over and actually play defense.  This may be hyperbole but this R.C. is going to my head.
• I'm willfully ignoring the stretch of possessions where the Gophers offense seemed clueless and got nothing but terrible shots as the shot clock expired as well as the fact that this sets up the Gophers perfectly to lose their last 3 games and make everybody nervous.  I will deal with all that later, for tonight, we party.

I'm an idiot with my phone, but you get the point.

Game Preview: Gophers vs. Hoosiers

You guys remember way back when we thought the Gophers were a top 10 team with Final Four aspirations and they were going into Bloomington to play a monster game against the #5 Hoosiers?  And then Indiana played a perfect first half to jump out to a 23 point halftime lead and we like oh man?  And then the Gophers showed a tremendous amount of heart, hustle, and all out warrior mentality and came storming back and came within a botched rebound off a missed Indiana free throw of having a chance to improbably send the game to OT?  Well I have bad news and bad news:  Indiana is playing those perfect halves (sometimes two in one game) more and more often, while the Gophers have stopped showing any of those traits that helped get them back in the game at Assembly Hall.

Since that game, Indiana has gone 9-2 with blowout wins by 23 (Penn State), 37 (@ Purdue), 29 (Nebraska), and 28 (Purdue) to go along with marquee wins over #1 Michigan (by 8), @ #13 Michigan State (by 5), @ #10 Ohio State (by 13), and #4 Michigan State (by 4).  They started the season as a juggernaut and are finishing as a juggernaut.  They're blowing out bad teams and beating good teams, home and road.  Meanwhile the Gophers are limping into the end of the season with their only three victories since the game in Bloomington coming in a lucky OT win against #20 Wisconsin, a last second win over Iowa, and a blowout of terrible Nebraska.  Their last two games were a 19 point road loss at Iowa and a 26 point road loss at Ohio State.  To say these teams have gone in opposite directions is a bit of an understatement, like saying Jennifer Lawrence is decent looking.

Statistically it's tough to find anywhere the Gophers have an edge.  Minnesota should get some steals and block some shots and that's where the good news ends.  Indiana lights it up from three, the Gophers can't defend the three.  Minnesota turns it over like crazy, Indiana creates a good amount of turnovers.  The Hoosiers are a great free throw shooting team, the Gophers are slightly below average (and outside of Hollinses are terrible).  The Gophers biggest strength is getting offensive rebounds, and Indiana is adept at not allowing this to happen.  The closest thing to a weakness for the Hoosiers is that they do turn the ball over almost as much as an average team (19% of possessions vs. national average of 20.2%).  Can the Gophers play the kind of defense that forces Indiana into turning the ball over, all the while not getting too overextended with their aggression to allow open looks from both 3 and 2?  They'll have to.

Indiana is simply loaded.  They have two guys who are in the National Player of the Year discussion in Cody Zeller and Victor Oladipo who play different positions and impact the game in different ways and either or both can win a game basically on their own if they needed to.  They have the underpants gnome in Jordan Hulls whose range starts when he crosses half court and who hits 50% of his threes anyway.  All that without even mentioned Christian Watford yet, who might be the best inside/outside player in the conference.  Even their one-time offensive weakness, freshman point guard Yogi Ferrell, has started to figure it out after realizing that nobody can keep him out of the lane.  He still can't really shoot, but he's morphed into a Lewis Jackson type player, only one who still thinks he can hit threes - hopefully he takes a ton of them on Tuesday.

I realize everything I've written makes it sound like I think the Gophers have no chance, and that's not true, but I've just been so demoralized by the last two ass whippings it's tough to get positive right now.  Normally I could point to the Gophers outscoring Indiana 52-36 in the second half in Bloomington and springboard that to the Gopher upset, but unfortunately the current Gopher squad so little resembles that team in its play that it may as well be a different season.

Even so, that second half and the first Illinois and Michigan State games say this team still has the talent to pull this one out, even if their recent plays gives very little indication that it would be possible.  The players have to know just how big this game is, and if Tubby can find a little magic and rally the troops I still think the home court advantage in Williams could be enough to put the Gophers over the top, they just need a little bit to break right.

On the other hand, after looking lost for the better part of a month to the point where the players look to be close to quitting and Tubby can't blame the players for screw-ups fast enough the team almost looks like it's heading for a full breakdown.  If Indiana jumps out to, say, a 15-5 lead that might be enough for everyone to go into their shell, pack up their things, and call it a day.  That's why the first 8 minutes on Tuesday are going to be the most important.  If Minnesota stays close, even if they lose but show that same ability and mental toughness from earlier this season, it will make me feel much better about the final stretch.  If the Hoosiers win easily, however, it might be time to start making NIT plans.

Indiana 80, Minnesota 68.

Game Preview: Gophers vs. Indiana Hoosiers

You mean I have to write this preview already?  It feels like the Illinois game just ended.  And man, what a game.  The Gophers defense is absolutely ridiculous.  I've never seen a team handle their rotations so well, and even Joe Coleman is looking semi-competent on that end.  That defense creates so many opportunities to run, whether through turnovers or missed shots, and with the athletes they have it plays right into their strengths.  Even in the half-court they're playing incredibly efficient and finding open opportunities, and with five guys who can score 20+ in any given night opposing defenses can't key on any one player or in any one area.  The bench is a bit of a concern, but like Snacks pointed out to me it's really not THAT bad, it's just that the starters are so good that when the reserves are in it makes them look worse.  The Gophers have gotten really strong stretches from Welch, Ahanmisi, Ingram, Oto, and Elliason this year, and when Tubby goes with that lineup they've been able to keep the margin close to what it was when they came in, giving Tubby the chance to rest the good players so they can play all or nearly all of the second half.  This is awesome.

But, as the way this season goes, as long as I'd like to dwell in the happiness of this win over Illinois we move on and now face a top 5 ranked team in the country and the preseason favorite (according to Vegas) to win the whole thing in the Indiana Hoosiers.

The Hoosiers come in at 14-1, with the lone loss coming in overtime against Butler in Indianapolis in a game that went to overtime.  The most interesting thing to me about those 14 wins is that they may not have a single win over an NCAA Tournament team yet.  NDSU is one of the favorites to win the Summit, but not the clear favorite.  Georgetown is a bubble team at best who's 0-2 in the Big East, North Carolina is heading straight for the NIT, and Iowa is going to have to pull off some major upsets (pleasegodno) to make it.  Everyone else has been a creampuff.

I bring that up not to say Indiana is overrated - far from it.  They've played incredibly well this year, ranking 6th in overall offense and 7th in overall defense at kenpom.com, one of only three teams (along with Duke and Florida) to rank in the top 10 in both.  While the Gophers also fair extremely well in those ratings (10th & 14th) they have a couple of glaring weaknesses (turnovers and allowing offensive rebounds) while in comparison Indiana is above average in literally every single metric measured.  They're an extremely good shooting team who can also put the clamps down defensively, they rebound well on both ends of the court, and they get to the line often while not putting their opponents there.  They don't depend on the three-pointer but hit it with regularly when they're left open, move the ball well, and like the Gophers, have five guys who can go for 20+ on any given night and can hurt defenses in a variety of different ways.  In short, this isn't Illinois or even Michigan State, this is a legit national title favorite (top 3-4 for me).  It isn't going to be easy.

I don't even know where to start when it comes to individual players because there's so much, so let's just get to it.

Cody Zeller could win National Player of the Year and he'd deserve it.  He's got great moves around the rim and can score with either hand going either direction and has a decent jumper out to about 15.  He blocks a decent amount of shots due to his height but isn't an exceptional athlete although he's no slouch there either and can run the floor very well.  He's added some strength this year but if he has a weakness it's his physicality.  The best thing that could happen for the Gophers would be to have Mbakwe go right after him and knock him around on both ends of the floor, hoping they refs let a lot go, beat him up, and take him off his game.  Will that work?  I don't know, but it's what I'd try.

Next to Zeller is Christian Watford, who creates an interesting match-up with Rodney Williams because they're both kind of tweeners, but with different skill sets.  While Williams puts up his numbers with his incredible athleticism, Watford is the exact opposite in that he gets his numbers (and the two have very similar numbers) despite being known as somewhat unathletic due to fundamentals and positioning and other nerdy things like that.  The other big difference is while Rodney is a questionable (at best) jump shooter, Watford is a dead-eye from 3.  The other knock on Watford is that he can lose focus and kind of tune out the game, and the Gophers best chance is for Rodney to frustrate him on the offensive end and hope he tunes out a bit and doesn't crash the offensive boards the way he usually can.

The third guy I want to point out is swingman Victor Oladipo, who might be the second best athlete in the conference (behind Rodney).  Also like Rodney, when he came into college ball he was basically an athlete who played basketball, but has since morphed into a more complete player, and Oladipo is a rich man's Williams because he is a more efficient version than Williams with a good jump shot.  I mean, dude, the guy is shooting 67% from the floor and 48% from three while averaging similar point and rebound per game numbers to Williams.  The Gopher defense is going to have to be just as tight against Indiana as it was against Illinois because if Oladipo gets the ball with just a speck of daylight to the rim he's going to explode after it.  Hopefully somebody can draw a charge or two.

Those are your three main cogs, but there's plenty of other talent here as well.  Jordan Hulls and Yogi Ferrell form kind of a tandem point guard duo - Hulls the steady veteran who takes care of the ball and is a great (and very smart) shooter (hits 52% from the field and three despite being a perimeter guy), and Ferrell the exciting (5.1 assists per game) freshman who is a little wild and can't hit the broad side of a barn when he shoots (32% from the floor, 24% from three).  The compliment each other extremely well and both are excellent defenders, if a bit undersized.  It may work to have the Gopher guards (Coleman, both Hollinses) post them up.  I'm not sure what kind of post game the Gopher guards have, but given their size/strength advantage I'd love to see them try.

Lastly, the Hoosiers have a pretty talented and deep bench led by Will Sheehey who is their fourth leading scorer and a damn good athlete in his own right and also is kind of a dick.  Remy Abell, Jeremy Hollowell, Derek Elston, and the recently reinstated Hanner Mosquera-Perea and Austin Etherington were all highly regarded recruits and round out the Hoosier bench with a cast that's probably better than Iowa.

Breaking it down, I really don't see any clear advantages for the Gophers.  Their best bet is to play their game - tough defense, taking advantage of transition opportunities, and crashing the offensive glass - and hope a few things go their way.  Hope the Gophers' physical play can intimidate and render Zeller and Watford ineffective.  Hope they can play well enough to shut down Oladipo, and that they can push Indiana out of the lane and get them to settle for the same bad shots Illinois was taking (and hope Hulls doesn't hit them anyway).  Hope the Gophers can stay out of foul trouble, because even though their bench is good, Indiana's is great.  If anything is a weakness for the Hoosiers it's that they haven't faced a team as good as the Gophers yet, where the Gophers have already played Duke.  For Indiana, Georgetown is probably as physical but isn't as skilled, while Butler is as skilled as the Gophers but isn't nearly as physical.  North Carolina and Iowa both try to score in transition the way the Gophers do, but neither are on Minnesota's level.

In reality, Indiana is a X.X point favorite for a reason, and while the Gophers can probably make a real game of it at home trying to overcome Indiana's advantage at Assembly Hall (and Big Ten ref's propensity for playing to the crowd) is likely too big a task.  A close game ending with a 5-8 point Indiana win is the likely outcome.

And yet.

I remember a game back in 1997.  A game where a ranked Gopher team went into Assembly Hall to face a higher ranked Indiana team.  Things looked bleak.  The Hoosiers looked to control the game as time wound down, and it looked like another good Gopher team would just be good.  Then there was a three-pointer.  A steal.  And then Bobby Jackson hit a three from the corner and we were headed to overtime, where the Gophers ground out a 5-point victory.  And they were off.  Next stop, Final Four and the best Gopher team of my lifetime.  Well, maybe until now.

Minnesota 80, Indiana 76 (in OT).