Tuesday Talkers

 I hate this time of year.  Not because of Christmas because I love Christmas because hey, no work, but because there's so little going on.  College basketball is just so slow.  There might be an interesting game or two, but in general it's pretty boring.  And next week is even worse with Christmas and stuff.  I have no idea why college kids can't play basketball over Christmas week.  I doubt they like their families anyway.  So since I have nothing else to write about and I just did a movie blog, here's just some stuff.


- Things should be a bit more entertaining when Rutgers joins the Big 10 than previously hoped.  Not because they're any good, because they're still pretty terrible at 5-7 this year (with a loss to William & Mary!) but because former Hoya Greg Whittington has committed to play for the Scarlet Knights after getting kicked off the team at Georgetown.  Whittington is a solid player who averaged 12 points and 7 rebounds per game for Georgetown last season before being ruled ineligible.  Of course I suppose it's a a question of if he ever actually arrives there considering that being ruled ineligible and then getting kicked off the team, not to mention he's dealing with ACL tear right now.  And I don't know when he'd be eligible to play or how many years he'll have left since his circumstances are a bit weird.  Hooray for information!

-  North Carolina is a fascinating team this year, and I don't just mean because they've beaten Louisville, Michigan State, and Kentucky while losing to Belmont and UAB, although that's pretty crazy in and of itself.  I mean because they're playing a completely different style than anyone else in basketball.  The average basketball team takes 32.5% of their field goal attempts from behind the 3-point arc, and scores 26% of it's total points on three-pointers.  The Tar Heels take just 15.9% of their shots from three, and that shot makes up just 10.7% of their points - both of those are dead last in the NCAA.  The team in front of them in % of attempts (Lamar) takes 19.8% of their shots from three, and the team in front of them for % of points from three (Bowling Green) gets 14.3% of their points from deep.  So North Carolina ignores the three point shot to at extent that nobody else can even touch, and it's intentional because almost every year under Roy Williams they've ranked in the 330s in those metrics (I had no idea).  It's probably a good thing since they shoot under 30% and Marcus Paige is their only halfway reliable shooter, but isn't that weird.  I think it's weird.  And I'm sharing it with you because you deserve to know weird things that are weird.

-  If you're wondering about the Gophers, and I'm sure you are since this is allegedly a Gopher blog, they take 39.6% of their shots from three (48th) and get 32.1% of their points from there (54th), shooting an above average 35.7% (vs. 33.9% national average).  These numbers are all up considerably from last season when the Gophers were ranked in the 270s, which makes sense both given the change in roster make up and Pitino's emphasis on the 3-ball.  Plus, it's way more fun.

-  Semi-Gopher related, but if Rashad Vaughn ends up at Iowa State (I said if!!) he's in for a monster year.  Hoiberg gives his guards so much freedom offensively and such little responsibility defensively that he'll end up averaging like 25 a game.  I don't know that it's the best thing for his development, but it's not like a bad defensive year will suddenly drop him out of the first round of the draft.  I really hope he's a Gopher next season, but I can see the Iowa State appeal no doubt.

-  Apparently Miramax is going to be producing a sequel to Rounders and will be turning Good Will Hunting into a television series.  These both sound like horrible ideas.  Rounders 2 could be good depending on where they take the characters, but for some reason I'm picturing a version of the Hangover with more gambling, and I suppose that could be entertaining even if it isn't necessarily "good" if you know what I mean.  The Good Will Hunting series is baffling.  I have no idea what they'd even do with it.  Hopefully someone smarter than me has that one figured out already.

- Tons of stuff going down in baseball with the winter meetings and everything, way too much to comment on in depth even for me, but I'll tackle a couple things:

• The Twins signed Phil Hughes, Ricky Nolasco, and Mike Pelfrey and are still chasing Bronson Arroyo.  I read one comment along the lines of, "I've never seen a team retool by chasing so much mediocrity" and that may be true, but mediocrity is a huge upgrade for this team.  Twins' starters had an ERA of 5.26 last season, worst in the majors by nearly half a run (0.45 to be precise).  They were the second worst in 2012 with an ERA of 5.40, better than only the Rockies.  2011?  Fifth worst at 4.64.  From 2011-2013 Twins' starters' ERA was 5.08, worst in the majors.  So yeah, Hughes, Nolasco, Pelfrey, and Arroyo might be mediocre, but they almost can't be worse than what they've been trotting out there.  Right?  RIGHT?
• Jason Kubel is back with the Twins, and that's cool because he was always one of my favorites and I even had a Kubel shirt which I have since gotten rid of (waa waa).   He signed a minor league contract with an invite to spring training, and it surprised me they got him so cheap.  Yes he was brutal last year, but in 2012 he hit 30 homers and OPS+ed 120.  He's become even more useless against lefties, but he should be a solid platoon player against right handed pitchers.  Considering Doumit hits lefties pretty well that could be a pretty good DH combo.  Of course there's no chance of that actually happening because Gardy.
• Speaking of the AL Central, I am really not liking what the White Sox are doing.  Everyone has ranked them for years as having the worst farm system, so the thought was they'd be terrible for like a decade and that made me smile because fuck the White Sox, right?  Well now all of a sudden they've acquired a young promising outfielder in Avisail Garica, a young promising outfielder in Adam Eaton, a young promising third baseman in Matt Davidson, and the latest big swinging Cuban in 1B/DH guy Jose Abreu.  The pitching is still a huge question mark behind Chris Sale, but I liked it better when Kenny Williams was burning the team down by trading away all youth and trying to fix problems by throwing money at them.  I can't remember this new guys name but he's been making a lot of mostly under the radar, smart moves and I don't like it one bit.  Now, with the two new guys, Alejandro de Aza is suddenly available, and this stupid guy will probably do something smart with him.  Sucks.
• By the way, Eaton is 5-8 and describes himself as "gritty dirt bag" kind of player.  So that should be a blast.  Hawk will probably have an orgasm on the air at some point.

-  Finally got all subscribed up with Netflix and we started watching Orange is the New Black.  Really good show.  In a world where I'm having more and more trouble finding new good shows and even some of my old favorites seem to be heading off the rails, it was refreshing to find a show that is both well made and entertaining since there are like 3 of those left.  Check it out.  It's not Breaking Bad, but what is?  Nothing.  Nothing is.  God such a good show I miss it so much.  Magnets, bitch!

-  Plus, it brings Amazonian hot Laura Prepon back in my life, which is a solid plus.

-   Semi-Gopher related, but it seems Syracuse fans have little to no interest in traveling to Houston for the Texas Bowl against the Gophers.  Instead, the fantastic Syracuse blog Troy Nunes is an Absolute Magician is organizing a donation drive among readers/fans to send under privileged Houston area kids to the game for free, with a goal of getting tickets for 200 kids (plus a hotdog, soda, and a freaking Cuse shirt).  I don't know if it's the Christmas season or getting older or having my own kids or what, but I thought this was really, really cool.  Or maybe it's just the Gopher connection.  Let's go with that.

-  I love Jay Cutler.

-  If you don't know the story behind this, it's here.

-  I know the last thing anybody really wants to hear about is someone else's fantasy woes (Jay Cutler would weight in on this one) but indulge me for a moment.  Due to Andrew Luck falling off a cliff post Reggie Wayne injury and Alex Smith suddenly lighting the world on fire I benched Luck for Smith two weekends ago in our quarterfinal.  Ended up losing by 2 points on Brandon Marshall's last catch Monday night, and would have won easily if I had kept Luck in there.  Then I would have won easily this week, so I should be in the championship, but I'm not instead at sitting around like a loser.  Fantasy football is really stupid.  And so are you.

-  I took this quiz and got 198/200 (missed Tony Allen and Brian Scalabrine).  I feel both proud and slightly embarrassed.

-  Good news for the Gophers, Florida State absolutely crushed Charlotte tonight.  The same Charlotte squad who beat Michigan earlier this year, and, with a certainly possible good year in a weak Conference USA, could end up a top 100 RPI team.  Thus, since Florida State beats them and the Gophers beat Florida State through osmosis that helps the Gophers' RPI.  Or something.  I don't know.  I'm not that bright.

-  I was gonna right more but first I got distracted by Orange is the New Black and then I realized I really hate you.

Two-Headed Horribleness: A DWG movie blog

Coming at you live from my couch, and it's time to use this fancy netflix thing I have now to watch something completely terrible, hopefully with people dying, and write words about it.  Today I have chosen 2-Headed Shark Attack for your enjoyment, as you probably surmised from the picture right above here.  I went with this movie for four reasons:

1.  It's on Netflix
2.  It sounds really stupid
3.  Carmen Electra

Yes, Carmen Electra, one of my first loves, is in this, along with Brooke Hogan who is famous for being a daughter and Charlie O'Connell who is famous for being a brother and has also been in at least one Live Movie Blog on here before.  So let's kick back with a drink (going with Bell's Christmas Ale to start, but I'm guessing my good buddy Vodka might make an appearance by the halfway point of this garbage) and enjoy some terrible acting, horrible science, and big breasts.  I'll set the mood:

 

 

All good?  Let's go.

-  Two chicks water skiing at the same time, there's almost now way the 2-headed shark doesn't eat them simultaneously, right?

-  Right.

-  I like this because there's these three douchebag guys who were driving the boat and the sharked rammed it and we're supposed to think they're in deep water but while they're "treading" water I can actually see the ocean floor.

-  Carmen.  Electra.  My god.  Still just stunning.  I can't even think right now.

-  Ok so here's some boat that appears to be some kind of school on a boat deal and Charlie O'Connell's the teacher, so that's the second biggest stretch of the movie so far.  The biggest is Brooke Hogan playing the "hot chick."  So far every character is a perfect stereotype - we have nerdy guy, nerdy chick, hot chick, mean jock, pothead guy, and bitchy chick.  I don't like any of them. 

-  Apparently this movie needed two writers, one for the story and one for the screenplay.  I feel like this is somehow the most absurd thing about this movie, and there's a two-headed shark involved. 

- Oh god more Carmen.  Is it hot in here?  It feels really hot in here.

-  The black girl talks really black.  You know what I mean.  Super good writing so far.  The characters really come to life. 

-  The school boat just ran over a dead megamouth shark, and nerdy guy rips off about 10 facts about the megamouth and you're not going to believe this, but they're all dead on balls accurate.  So some completely retarded movie about a 2-headed shark is the first syfy movie ever to actually research and put something factually accurate in the movie.  I did not see that coming.

-  So here's what happened:  the megamouth ended up going through the school ship's propellers injured the boat and made it start taking on water, while at the same time the massive amount of blood in the water attracted the totally realistic looking 2-headed shark to the boat.  So the school boat will have to land at this super small island that's probably going to be deserted or something while some blonde chick repairs the hull.  Not a euphemism.

-  So since I switched jobs about a year and a half ago you may have noticed a lack of updates regarding fancy dinners, and that's because we never have fancy dinners at this job.  But last week we did, and so you should know that we went with calamari, mozzarella stuffed meatballs, a couple of flatbreads, spicy shrimp, and brussels sprouts for appetizers, followed up by a caesar salad and then for my entree I had pesto sea bass with roasted asparagus with a thai chili beurre blanc.  Pretty good.  Toffee and Grand Marnier truffles for dessert.  I much prefer my current job to any other I've had, but man do I miss those kind of dinners.

-  The good news is there are about 20 "college students" on this island now and many of them are female and in bikinis.  The bad news is that everyone in this thing is either a terrible overactor or just a plain terrible actor, and we need more Carmen Electra.

-  Guess what's attracted to the sound/smell/sight of a welding torch underwater?  Yep, a 2-headed shark which roars, of course.  Sorry blonde girl, although I do like how the two heads fought over the meal and ended up tearing her in half.  If the computer effects were done by something more powerful than an etch-a-sketch that would have been really cool.  But hey, Carmen is not sunbathing in a tiny bikini.  Previously she was dancing in the sun in a tank top.  I enjoy how nobody is pretending she is anything she isn't in this movie.  It's kind of beautiful.

-  I feel bad for Brooke Hogan here and not just because of her dad.  She's clearly supposed to be the main star here but she's completely overshadowed by Carmen and really everybody else.  We know Brooke is supposed to be the star because she just told a story about almost getting attacked by a shark or something and how she hasn't been in the water since she was twelve.  So she signed up for semester at sea to get over her fear of the water because that's something people in movies do that people in real life would never ever do.

-  Uh oh, a guy and two girls snuck off and are about to go "swimming."  This never ends well.

-  Boobs?  We have boobs?  Whoa.  Since this was originally on SyFy I wasn't ready for this but I guess the netflix and DVD versions are different, because there are lots of minutes of boobs.  But here comes growly mcfunhater shark to blow things up, and right as we have two chicks making out.  Also, they're in water that's only up to their waists (to better expose the boobs, of course) but the huge shark (with 2-heads) somehow managed to kill both the girls and do so in such a way that it bit their legs and they started coughing up blood.  This is horrible.

-  I think there was an earthquake or something.  Not really sure but there was a loud noise and then everybody started yelling and pretending the ground was shaking.  Chuck O'Connell fell on a dock and now he has some blood on his leg and can't walk or something.  I suspect this is supposed to be a serious injury but it pretty much looked like he fell down and got a scrape.  And there's another earthquake or whatever and bitchy girl started crying so Brooke Hogan slapped her.  Everyone is mad at Brooke now but I think slapping a woman when she's crying or talking is something that should really start catching on.

-  Ha Ha Carmen Electra is playing a doctor.  Awesome.  Also Mr. O'Connell hasn't stopped whining about his leg.  Brooke Hogan needs to slap that bitch.

-  Two more students we were never introduced got eaten, but this time people saw it so now they know there's a shark.   A shark that kills indiscriminantly in as little as 3 feet of water besides being totally huge and also every time it attacks they show it coming up from deep water.  And also roars.

-  The students found some old fishing boats which apparently Brooke can fix and so now they have two working boats.  To be eaten.  Keep in mind these students have no idea anything is wrong other than their big school boat needs repairs, so there's no reason for them to steal these fishing boats other than to go joy riding, which is exactly what they're doing.  Kids today, no respect. 

-  Omg the island is sinking because the shark keeps ramming the island.  Go ahead and let that one sink in while I grab another beer. 

- And now we have looped footage of Carmen Electra yelling "get out of the god damn water."  Looped footage.  I have watched an awful lot of crap but this is the worst of the bunch, and it has Carmen Electra so you know it must be extra bad. 

-  Oh man that guy just got his arm ripped right off.  Just like Aaron Rodgers.  By the way, fantasty football is totally gay and if you play it you're stupid too.  I hate it and I'm quitting forever next year.

-  So I guess this is just some shark born with two heads.  And because it has two heads apparently boat motors really bug it because it has "hyper sensitive electromagnetic responders", which really goes along way towards why it keeps attacking swimmers.

-  "We're in shallow water now, the shark can't get to us."  OH BULLSHIT!  Haven't you been watching this movie Brooke?

-  This is so bad there isn't even much to say.  The atoll is sinking because the shark is ramming it, teh big boat doesn't work, and they can't use the little boats because the 2-headed shark has twice the "electromagnetic resonance" as a normal shark.  And yet it's all super boring. 

-  The plan is too create a super strong magnetic field to distract the shark using an electric generator and some metal polls.  It took two writers to come up with this. 

-  So how about Jason Kubel coming back to the Twins?  That's pretty cool.  Not cool?  I got ride of my Kubel shirt. 

-  The shark rammed charge generator and then ate a couple of characters we don't care about (while roaring).  Now there is nothing to distract the shark from Brooke Hogan who is the one who is welding the ship back together even though she's scared of the water. This seems more like a scooby doo episode than a movie.

-  I guess she fixed it because the mean jock guy is driving away now, which means he's leaving all the other students behind because they've already established he's a jerk who is only worried about himself.  Also earlier they said it would take at least a day to fix the hull but that was clearly about 15 minutes.  Shocking there would be continuity problems with a movie that also spent the majority of the time establishing that this mean guy was mean.  And now dead because the shark killed the school boat.  Because of all the electromagnitvity, you see.

-  Now that the atoll (fancy word for island) is about to sink the new plan is to climb the trees.  Seriously this is when SyFy clearly threw in the towel and just stopped trying altogether.  I would rather spend the entire weekend in Iowa than watch this again.  And I don't mean Ames which is pretty awesome or that Casino just over the border, I mean the bad parts of Iowa.  Most of it.  You know, the parts that literally smell like shit.

-  Carmen and O'Connell just got hit by a tidal wave (no idea where that came from) and the shark at the same time but it's ok because they realized they were about to die and started making out.  Lucky dude.  Hope he grabbed a feel.

-  Now alternating between shots of completely fake super tidal wavy water and the students screaming while in totally calm water.  Par for the course.  They locked themselves in a flooded shed but the shark is still knocking on the door like the big bad wolf and shit because that's how sharks totally act god this sucks I hope everybody involved went bankrupt. 

-  Roaring.  Kill me.

-  Somebody has a gun all of a sudden.  I don't know.  I need a drink.

-  Since 99% of this is computer generated so many of the scenes are clearly the director (if there is one) telling the actors, "ok, the shark is coming after you now, run towards the camera screaming" and it totally shows.

-  They're going to try to blow up a barrel of gas to kill the shark, because one of the students still alive somehow kept her beach bag with her through everything else including earthquakes and shark attacks (the 2-headed kind) and she happened to have a lighter.

-  The shark what ated everybody just got successfully fought off by Brooke Hogan with a piece of driftwood.  Then it bit the can of gasoline and blew up.  But wait!  Only one head blew up!  What a twist!!

-  The second head died when the shark bit the boat's engine, a behavior it hadn't exhibited throughout the entire movie.  This movie gave me eye cancer.

MLB Trade Deadline

First off, screw you Ryan Braun.  I hope your balls fall off.  Braun tried so hard to tell us all he was innocent, but of course he wasn't.  Meanwhile, children in Milwaukee are sad and Braun goes right back to his $100MM contract next season.  At least it happened to Wisconsin.  If someone deserves this, it's them.  I enjoy that MLBers like Skip Schumaker and Jesse Crain are getting sick of the cheaters and are coming out and speaking against it.

It seems like there are a lot of veterans that are on the block this year as we approach the trade deadline.  The increase in potential activity is probably due to some close races in divisions as well as the addition of the second wild-card.  Here are some dudes that might be on the move.

@mike_olt

Matt Garza - Well, I was so lazy writing this that Garza already got traded to the Rangers.  The Cubs receive Mike Olt, Justin Grimm and CJ Edwards as well as 1 or 2 players to be named later.  It's only 1 if they choose Neil Ramirez.  Mike Olt was the #22 prospect at the beginning of the year according to Baseball America.  He's 24 and has struggled at AAA after mashing AA the year prior.  He was dealing with some weird eye thing which could have contributed to the suck.  He's a solid defender at 3B.  Grimm is a starter that's been poor in 17 starts for the Rangers, but was a top 10 prospect for them and has mid rotation potential.  Edwards is 21 and is ripping up class A ball with a 1.83 ERA over 93 IP. 

Alfonso Soriano - It sounds like if I don't type fast enough today Soriano will be a Yankee by the time I post.  A deal requires Soriano to waive a no-trade clause.  Also, the Cubs will be paying quite a bit of the remaining $24.9MM owed to him.  The Yankees would be sending a minor league relief prospect like Chase Whitley and/or Tommy Kahnle.  Soriano is hitting .256 with a .286 OBP, but does have 17 homers.  He has a 1.2 WAR so far this year.  Vernon Wells, the player he would likely replace, has a 0.0 WAR. 

Jake Peavy - With Garza gone, Peavy is the next mostly heavily talked about pitcher available.  The 32 year old just returned from a stint on the DL due to a rib injury.  He has a 4.19 ERA, but advanced stats show he's had a bit of bad luck out there.  (xFIP 3.65)  He's still striking out 8.5/9 and walking just 1.85/9.  The Red Sox seems to be the hottest after Peavy and they could definitely use him.    Peavy is due $29MM over the next two years.  The Giants, Rockies and D-Backs have also shown some interest.  Peavy should garner a Garza-esque package.  Especially since he's under control for two years, where Garza is a free agent after this season.

Justin Morneau - Jon Heyman wrote that teams are "soft" on the idea of trading for Morneau.  The Pirates and Yankees were the most rumored over the last week.  You would think Morneau could see a spike of production in a new environment that isn't Target Field, but his home/road splits show that he's actually worlds better at home.  He hits 320/368/521 with 6 of his 7 homers at home; he's a miserable 222/294/284 hitter on the road.  Maybe teams have cooled because they googled some Morneau splits and don't want to pay the last $6MM of Morneau's 6yr/80MM deal for that type of production.

While there has been a lot of speculation about Justin Morneau and other Twins, rivals haven’t sensed a big push from MIN to make deals.
— Buster Olney (@Buster_ESPN) July 21, 2013

Aramis Ramirez - Aramis is on the DL, but teams are still showing interest.  In fact, he probably won't even be off the DL before the deadline.  However, his $16MM price tag this year means that he would likely clear waivers and could be moved in August when he returns.  Both the Red Sox and Yankees have a need at 3B that might make Ramirez a good fit.

Michael Young - The Phillies aren't sure whether they should be buyers or sellers.  They're just 7.0 games behind the Braves despite being a game under .500 and they've won 6 of 10 recently.  They actually have a better record than the pre-season darling Washington Nationals.  For now, they're saying Young isn't available -- again, the Yankees and Red Sox have interest.  This is a case where the two wildcard system is likely keeping someone from selling.

Yovani Gallardo - Let's face it, the Brewers might as well punt now that Braun is out for the year and Gallardo is another name that is drawing some interest.  Gallardo isn't doing the Brewers any favors though by pitching like crap.

Not sensing a lot of enthusiasm over Yovani Gallardo despite 6.1 shutout IP last night. Two execs who were there called him a "4-5 starter"
— Jayson Stark (@jaysonst) July 21, 2013

Francisco Rodriguez - Lots of teams are after K-Rod, notably the Tigers, Red Sox and Dodgers.  The Tigers would possibly plug him in at closer.  He stills throws it at 93-94mph and has that sick slider.  His contract is a palatable $2.25 with some games played incentives.  Huston Street is a name that has come up for reliever-seekers as well. Althought a lot of Tigers fans seem to not want him:

Tigers interested in Huston Street. Because they lay up at night wondering how to screw up their bullpen."How can we waste Benoit again?"
— Patrick DiCaprio (@pdicaprioFP911) July 22, 2013

Jason Kubel - There are mild rumors out there about Kubel being moved; he's another guy that has played poorly this year and is hurting his trade value.  Unlike Morneau, he sucks equally both at home and away.  He might be a cheaper trade alternative to Alex Rios or god forgive me, Nate Schierholtz.  A mid-level reliever might get it done as AZ has stated they're looking for pitching.  The guy did hit 30 homers just a year ago.  Plus this:

Jason Kubel looks like Cheddar Bob from 8 mile
— Tyler Brown (@TBro323) July 20, 2013

Monday Musings (and good-bye, my love)

You know what's crazy?  I am super excited for the NBA to be back.  Actually I guess that's not all that crazy because I get excited for the NBA every single year.  I get all jacked up and decide that I'm going to really dedicate myself to following the NBA all season long rather than just jumping in for the playoffs, and it's finally time to really become an NBA fan.  Then, at some point in the second quarter, I watch  a defender not fight through a screen, the picker not roll, the wide open jump shooter clang it off the rim and the team with the ball getting a put back basket because nobody boxed out and the only one who jumped for teh rebound was the 2nd year power forward who still tried on every play.  And now they're playing back-to-back-to-backs and 66 games in like, 3 months or something like that.

Yet, here I am, getting all excited to watch the NBA on Christmas Day.  God I'm so dumb.  Here's some other quick stuff, in lieu of a Week in Review post which I was too lazy to write.

-  I guess the most obvious thing is the sad news that Jason Kubel will no longer be a Twin after signing for 2 years, $15 million with the D-Backs.  I've been pissed off at signings before (when Mussina left the O's for the Yankees I swore off baseball - for some reason I grew up a rabid Oriole fan), and others moves have left me stunned (when Brunansky was traded for Herr I distinctly remember calling my dad a liar, which he wasn't pleased about), but this is the first time I've been broken hearted, or at least as broken hearted as a reasonably rational adult male can be about sports.

I can't even be mad.  That 2 year, $15 million dollar deal is probably more than Kubel is worth considering he's a poor fielder, struggles against lefties, and has trouble staying healthy so I can't be mad at him for taking it or mad at the Twins for not matching/beating it (although I am a bit perturbed that they seemingly wrote him off and never seemed to care about trying to retain him).  So that's why I'm just sad, not angry at anybody.

I don't even know why I love Kubel so much, but I know his is one of only two articles of clothing I own with another man's name on the back (I also have a Denard Span shirt for some reason).  He is also the first player who I ever broke down and bought a shirt/jersey off with my own money (at other points I had owned a LaDainian Tomlinson jersey and a Randy Moss jersey - both gifts).  He's not particularly fast, or athletic, or anything.  His best skill is hitting the baseball, but he'll never be confused with Albert Pujols.  He doesn't even have the small, scrappy gamer thing going for him (although that would have made me hate him).  I think the reason Kubel is so loved, by me and many others, is because he seems like an every man.  Just a cool, laid back dude who would love to play softball and then pounds some beers.  Except in his case instead of softball he crushes pitches from the best baseball throwers in the world and gets millions to do it. 

Obviously I won't be able to follow his career as closely when he ships on over to the land where games start at 10:30pm, but god knows I'll try.  I'm not sure anybody will ever surpass him as my favorite Twin.  And yet we're stuck with Joe fucking Mauer and his enema of a contract and Justin Morneau who may or may not know what year it is.  This blows.

Tell me this guy wouldn't love to destroy you at Beer Pong.

-  On to other, less soul crushing things, you know all that talk about how great Cody Zeller was going to be right off the bat and was the kind of player who could turn Indiana's program right around?  Well I think for once the hype was right because I had a chance to actually watch this dude against Notre Dame (a game the Hoosiers won by 11) and he's absolutely the real deal.  There was one play where he blocked a lay-up attempt some some poor bastard on the Irish, then beat the defense down the court for an easy score.  He's really athletic for his size, very polished for a freshman, and can pass like a guard, and is like whoa.  I now feel very dirty for liking a Hoosier this much.  I'm going to go take like, six showers and then burn myself with matches.

-  As long as I'm talkin' Big Ten players who brokeout or whatever I guess we should talk DeShaun Thomas after his 30 point outburst against South Carolina (on 13-16 shooting!!) which followed his 23-point game (on 10-15 shooting).  Not surprising, since if you watched Thomas last year you could see he had the potential to be a big time scorer and I'm pretty sure he led the nation in points per minute last year (and shots per minute).  When he's hot and hitting he's going to put up major points since he's basically always taking a heat check, and he's been on fire lately which is good timing since Sullinger has a constant hangnail or something.  Of course, it's going to also be fun when he goes 1-14 in a game and shoots the Buckeyes into a loss.  Hopefully against the Gophers.  Ok I laughed when I typed that.


-  Sticking with the Big 10, just when you think everything is hunky dory along comes to Purdue to mess everything up by losing to Butler (Illinois lost a home game to UNLV as well, but that's at least understandable).  Now, in case you haven't been paying attention this year Butler isn't the same Butler they've been for the last several seasons - they straight up suck.  They were 4-6 going into the Purdue game, and that includes losses to Ball State, Valpo, and Evansville, with their wins coming against three truly dreadful teams and a D-II opponent.  And yet Purdue managed to lose on a tip-in at the buzzer on a neutral court.  Ouch.  It's probably the worst loss by a Big Ten team other than Nebraska, Penn State, or Iowa.  Nice work, dingleberries.
- Sigh.  I hate this, but it's time to admit that Washington, although the most fun team to watch ever, are pretty clearly not an NCAA caliber team.  A completely embarrassing loss to South Dakota State - at home by 19 - slams that home pretty clearly and drops Washington to 5-5 on the season.  I suppose none of the other losses are that bad by themselves (@ St. Louis, @ Nevada in OT, and versus Marquette and Duke in Madison Square Garden) but good god, a 20 pt loss to SDSU?  Maybe I'm overreacting but I'm just disgusted.  South Dakota State opened up a 35-14 lead early and never looked back, riding 55% shooting (10-16 from 3), and 26-32 free throw shooting to an easy, and shocking, win.  I suppose whenever a Pac-10 team loses it shouldn't be a surprise (Arizona also got blown out by Gonzaga), but damn, this is just sad.  I miss Captain Circus Ball.

- Ha-ha, stupid Packers.  Go around all cockin' off about how you were gonna go for the perfect season and guess what happens?  You get punched in the mouth by a crappy crap team with a 40 year old running  back, a QB nobody wants, very little talent, and a completely dopey head coach.  On one hand, it's possible this loss refocuses them and they get better, but on the other hand a perfect Packer season is more than I could possibly take and either end up killing myself or somebody would end up dead after I raged out.  It was so fun watching the last two minutes of the game where the Packers needed a stop badly but their little sissy soft defense full of nancy boy hippy girls couldn't stop the Chiefs running game even when they knew damn well a running play was coming.  Seemed like all the talk about the Packer D being statistically poor only because they always had the lead might have just been wishful thinking, because these guys are freaking terrible.  In conclusion, go to hell Green Bay.


Seriously though.  I feel like Mel Gibson in that movie where he's all like "Give me back my Kubel!"  You know what I'm talking about.  The only thing cheering me up at all is I just saw the Christmas card we got from $nake and guess what?  His youngest son is wearing a Yankee cap in the picture they used.  A Yankee cap.  The Yankees.  The New York Yankees.  Jesus, what an asshole.

Thanks, Comcast

I was going to post last night but unfortunately for everyone, or fortunately, whatever, Comcast is a dick and my internet was down from 8:15 until 12:15.  I know the exact timing it was out because I was doing an internet fantasy football draft and was unable to log in to the draft room or log in anywhere really since, you know, I had no internet.  I considered going to a bar somewhere like a BW3 that would have free wi-fi so I could be the weirdo with the laptop drinking beer by himself, but then a generous soul offered to email me every single pick so I could follow long on my phone and then email him my picks whenever it was my turn.  It actually went rather smoothly.

Anyway, you guys remember how two years ago I told you how Hakeem Nicks was going to be awesome and then he was?  And last year how I was pimping Dez Bryant and now he's looking like he's going to be special?  Well I got a third guy.  I don't think his upside is on the Nicks/Bryant level, but he has a chance to reach the next tier and right now nobody is paying any attention to him or even knows who he is, and in a lot of drafts he isn't even getting drafted.  I really wish I could tell you who I'm talking about, but I have my big keeper league draft this weekend and then an auction on Labor Day.  Since too many people in those leagues read this crap, I'm going to have to keep it under wraps until after then.  Sorry.

And speaking of keeping things under wraps, over labor day weekend Snacks and I are taking our dad on an awesome trip.  It's a surprise and he sometimes reads this and I'm sure is super proud, so I can't spill the info here, but I plan to take a computer with me and update from the place that we're going.  Stay tuned.  On to the sporty sports:

-  So I guess we might as well start with the Twins, and we'll specifically go with the fact that Kubel and Thome were put on waivers, a fact which for some reason seems to have a lot of people spazzing out even though it's basically standard operating procedure and if they're smart the Twins will throw almost everybody out there at some point.  It's pretty simple, at some point some team will claim each of them - and they will both get claimed - and then the Twins will try to work out a trade.  In Thome's case they'll probably take whatever they can get because there's zero reason to hold on to him, but in Kubel's case they'll probably ask for quite a bit more.

That's good because Kubel has real value to a contender, now and in the future, but also not good because they're probably under some misguided notion that not trading him will help them sign him.  If they want to.  I don't know.  I don't even know if they should, but I'm pretty sure I'd take him over Cuddyer.  Maybe trade Kubel for a second-tier prospect, then sign either him or Cuddy, whoever offers the bigger discount.  And if you can't sign either of them who gives a crap, right?  And speaking of that why isn't Cuddy on waivers yet?  And Pavano?  And every reliever on the roster?

Seriously, this team as currently constructed has no shot to do anything ever.  Might as well move everything that has value and isn't part of your long term plans while you can.  Kubel, Cuddyer, Thome, Pavano, Blackburn, Nathan, Capps, basically every other reliever and possibly Danny Valencia are clearly not part of the future.  I see no reason why not to ship 'em all out of here.  You could get a decent return for everybody except Blackburn.  Start over.  Move on.  It's over.  This team sucks forever.  They can't even win a series against Baltimore for god's sake.

Which reminds me of a fun little nugget I heard on the radio today, and you'll never believe this but it illustrates once again how much of a complete moron P.A. is.  Since every Twins fan just watched J.J. Hardy homer against the team Monday night and then hear about how he has more home runs than every other Twin and basically a better HR rate than the entire team combined and P.A. is a giant homerdouche he had to down play Hardy, and act like the retard that he is.  So he went with, "Everyone who is saying the Twins should have kept Hardy is just saying that in retrospect, I don't remember anybody caring when they traded him" which is super bizarre because I remember everyone hating that trade - I know I did and I put it on paper.

Oh look.  I decided to check the first three Twins blogs I could think of to see what they had to say.  Aaron Gleeman called the move "questionable", Twinkie Town said, "Do I think it's a bad deal?  Definitely.", and Nick's Twins blog used the headline, "Hardy Trade Cripples Infield Depth." And those were the only three places I checked, that's not exactly nobody.  I think the only people who liked this trade were Bill Smith, P.A., Bert Blyleven, and Sid Hartman since Hardy wasn't a gritty gamer who hustled and gritted his way around the field because he was a pussy unlike captain gritty mchustlepants Nick Punto.

Oh, and then even better he started going on and on about how obviously Hardy didn't have much worth because no teams wanted him and Baltimore was the only team who would make a deal.  I'm not kidding he honestly said this.  Then, with the least research anybody has ever done ever, I find this link.  In case you are too lazy or don't know how to click on links, it is an article by Lavelle Neal which quotes Bill Smith as saying there were "at least a half dozen teams" interested in Hardy.  So I guess my point is that P.A. is still incredibly dumb and anybody who listens to his show and thinks he knows anything about anything is so dumb they probably like Olive Garden.

-  In the entertainment world I recently watched Trespass.  Not a recent movie by any means, but I'm not sure I've seen it.  To refresh you, it's the one where Bill Paxton and that guy from Shawshank are hunting for gold in an abandoned factory and end up in a shoot-out with Ice-T, Ice Cube, Argyle from Die Hard, and Deebo from when he was still skinny.  It was mind-blowing to see the two Ices in the same movie, and even worse to see how terrible their acting was, especially because this movie actually came after Boyz N the Hood, which I thought Cube was pretty solid in, although two years before his mini-breakout in Higher Learning and 3 before his total breakout in Friday.  It's really a shame he died in 1998 after Player's Club,  I wonder how far his career could have gone, maybe a more "street" Denzel.  Shame we'll never know.

Ice-T, on the other hand, was terrible in this and has always been terrible, outside of being tolerable in Law & Order:  SVU (although to be fair I haven't seen Leprechaun in the Hood, which seems like a glaring weakness in my movie watching history).  There is, of course, the one notable exception of Surviving the Game, which is an awesome awesome awesome movie and I will fucking fight anyone who says otherwise.  Rutger Hauer, Gary Busey, Ice-T in his best ever role ever, the black dude from Rudy, and Dr. Cox in a movie about hunting homeless people for sport?  Hell.  Yes.  God I want to watch this now.  Ask Snacks, he'll tell you how good this was.  Ice-T should have just quit acting after this and he'd be a legend.  "Hey Burns, always check the barrell."

Seriously, this movie is so good dude.  I can sum it up in three pictures:

Holy crap this movie is so awesome.  I have no idea why you are sitting there watching something stupid when you could be watching this. 

-  Apparently Rick Adelman interviewed with the Timberwolves which leads me to believe he either really likes hookers, really likes drugs, has a serious gambling debt, or perhaps collects Faberge eggs because the only reason I can figure a guy like Adelman would want the Wolves job is a desperate need for immediate money.   Why join this mess instead of waiting a year and waiting for a more attractive job to turn up?  He's made the playoffs like, 20 times, so why go to a trainwreck?  Maybe he likes a challenge I guess, but why not go for the Sunday crossword instead of the one billion piece puzzle of the sky?  Weird.

-  Finally, we got us a new blog to check out,Still Got Hope, which focuses on gopher football for some reason.  I actually sort of  know one of the guys (from the internet) and even though he's kind of a doofus and looks like Shrek his first post made me laugh even though it was about Tutu Atwell which I wouldn't have believed if I hadn't lived it, and their intro post was nice as well.  I recommend you give them a read.  They're known as a poor man's Down with Goldy according to me.

Who sucks, why, and what can we expect? (hitters edition)

There's a lot of things wrong with the Twins' offense so far, clearly, and since I'm prone to overreaction I'm basically in full on panic mode.  Ok, not really.  But the Twins have definitely sucked.  Perhaps we should look into this.

Let me warn you right here:  if you think discussions about swing rates and ground ball ratios are boring you should just check out now because we're going to dig into this on a player-by-player basis.  If K-rate, chase percentage, and BABIP are things you either don't understand, are scared of, or just plain hate you should leave at just go look at boobies.  Now for the rest of you poindexters who stuck around, let's get out our abaci and our protractors and hunker down in mom's basement and see what we see.  All stats as of April 12, pre-game time.  All nerd stats from fangraphs.



Joe Mauer (.233/.303/.267) - No real secret here, but his numbers are low because his Batting Average on Balls in Play (BABIP) is low, but that's because he's hitting almost exclusively ground balls so far this year.  His 80% ground ball rate is the highest in all of baseball, while his 4.0% line drive rate puts him at 209th out of 213 players who qualify for the batting title.

His swing rates, contact rates, and walk rates are generally around his career averages so it doesn't appear anything has changed as far as his approach, which is good, but there is one interesting anomaly.  Of the pitches thrown to him so far this year, 14.8% of them have been curveballs which is almost double what he's seen in his career, and that's the pitch he has the most trouble with according to the numbers (other than a cutter which you don't see as often).  Could just be a weird blip due to early season pitching match-ups, but could be the league has identified something.  It's probably meaningless, but it's worth watching.

Justin Morneau (.258/.303/.355) - Interesting to note that he's not hitting with power (his current ISO - which measures power without regard to batting average - would be bar far the lowest of his career) and he's also not striking out at all - just  once this year with one of the lowest K% in the entire league.  He's also not walking at anywhere near his usual pace.  This can be traced to the fact that he's making contact nearly every time he swings the bat - currently at 87.5% contact rate, a career high and 10% higher than his career average.

The real issue, though, is how often he's making contact when he chases - 85.0%, up from 68.1% last year.  He's seeing fewer pitches in the zone, and although he is chasing less than last year when he does chase he's making contact far more often, and unless you're Kirby Puckett, Yogi Berra, or Vlad Guerrero it's much harder to make solid contact when you're going after a bad pitch.  I haven't noticed if he's taking weaker swings at bad pitches simply to make contact, but it's something I'll be watching.  I suspect he just needs to get back to unleashing on every swing - his misses will go up, but so will his power and his walks.  That's what the Twins need.  Assuming his brain is working ok and will allow that to happen.

Delmon Young (.188/.212/.219) - Similar to Mauer he's not getting any hits because he's not hitting any line drives, just 8.0% so far.  Dissimilar to Mauer his balls in play aren't limited to grounders because he's hitting both fly balls and ground balls, but none of the GBs are getting through and none of the FBs are going anywhere, thus the lack of both hits and power.  Despite his swing and contact rates remaining relatively similar to last year he's actually striking out more and walking less, which I didn't think was possible.  Of note is that out of every five pitches Young sees only two of them are in the strike zone.  Pitchers know he'll chase so they aren't giving him anything to hit.  If his approach doesn't change it's going to be a tough year.

Denard Span (.286/.342/.400) - maybe the only player on the entire roster who hasn't been an offensive disappointment.  Worth noting is that is walk rate is just 7.9%, down from last year which was down from the year prior and down from the year prior.  Bizarrely, as the years have gone by he seems to be seeing more pitches in the strike zone, but swinging at fewer strikes and more balls with his swing % at balls outside the zone at a career high.  His numbers have the potential to get even better if he can recapture some of his plate patience he showed earlier in his career because the balls he does hit he's hitting much better and much harder.  Perhaps that's what he needs to break through the "slightly above average lead-off hitter" he's been for his career.  Also needed:  less getting picked off.

Danny Valencia (.194/.265/.290) -  Nothing in Valencia's numbers suggests any kind of regression from last year.  His swing and contact rates are similar and if anything he's showing improved plate patience.  His line drive, ground ball, and fly ball rates are also all right where you'd expect.  The only big difference is a huge drop in BABIP from .345 last year to .200 this year.  While .345 means he was a little bit lucky last year, the .200 (with the rest of the numbers basically the same) means he's been tremendously unlucky this year.  No worries about Valencia, he's going to be fine. 

Jason Kubel (.300/.323/.367) -  The .300 average looks nice but there are some pretty big red flags here.  First, his BABIP is .391 even though his line drive rate is currently at a career low mark of 17.4% - that's a whole lot of luck coming into play.  Second, the complete lack of power is disturbing, as are the zero walks.

Two things Kubel has always been able to bring to the table, even when struggling, are his power and his plate patience and now they're both gone?  His double tonight is just his third this year and he's still looking for that first home run.  Based on his career averages he should have triple the XBH by now.  And the walks?  He's been solidly right at a 10% or so walk rate his whole career, and now nothing?  He's being extra aggressive for some reason this year with rises in his swing rates at both balls in the zone and out of it and it's translating into no walks.  I don't know why he's suddenly trying to become Delmon Young, but this shit better stop or I'm burning my Kubel shirt.  Don't change who you are when it's (at least sort of) working.

Mike Cuddyer (.107/.194/.107) -  He's 3-3 tonight with three singles so that will help the average number at least.  That's not all that concerning because with a BABIP of just .136 you know his average is going to come up significantly, but I'm not so sure what's going on with the slap hitting nancy routine.  His contact rates are mostly similar, so it's not that he's changed his approach, but for some reason he's swinging about 7% less on balls in the strike zone, and making contact about 2% less that usual.  It's almost as if while Kubel is getting more aggressive and getting away from his strength, Cuddyer is trying to be more patient which goes away from his.

Similar to Mauer, he's seen a huge increase in curve balls so far this year (from 8.2% career average to 16.2% this year) which leads me to believe this whole curve ball thing is nothing more than statistical noise due to seeing a higher percentage than average of curve ball pitchers so far, but it's worth noting that, again similar to Mauer, Cuddy always struggles against curves, so maybe things turn around when pitch mixes return to more standard levels.

The one impressive thing about his season is no matter how shitty it is, Cuddy has managed to keep his streak of being quoted in every single Twins article ever since he arrived in the big leagues intact.  Seriously, every article.  Guy's a bigger media whore than Chuck Sheen.

Jim Thome (.167/.250/.444) -  It doesn't really matter to me what the numbers would say about Thome, I'm not going to worry about him unless I start seeing signs of aging, like not being able to catch up to a fastball or not being able to sustain an erection.  At this point his 9.1% line drive rate and 63.5% fly ball rate are both really awful numbers and are leading to his piss poor BABIP of .200.  He's not punishing fast balls the way he usually does, but really right now he's not punishing anything (except that pitch from poor Jerry Blevins) so we really don't have enough data.  Kept a sharp eye on which pitches Thome is hitting hard to know what to expect the rest of the year, like the 80 mph change he just hit off Tim Collins for a single, that's the kind of pitch an old man who can't catch up to a fastball will crush.  Not saying that's him, but it's something to watch.

Alexi Casilla (.167/.211/.278) -  His BABIP is just .200, which would make you think his performance is bound to get better just due to luck, but he doesn't walk (ever), he has no power (ever), and, get ready for this one.....he hasn't hit a single line drive all year.  Basically all he does is bound the ball into the ground and hope to god he finds a hole (not dissimilar to Chuck Sheen) or hits the ball so shittily he can use his alleged speed to get on base.  I guess.  I don't know.  I don't even get this guy.  I think I'd rather have Punto back.  Or Denny Hocking.  Or Jeff Reboulet.  At least he had a mustache.  I'm tired and drunk.


And that's the end. I think what we can really take out of this is that this team sucks.  Or, this team has seen a lot of curveballs and they can't hit them.  Of the starters they've faced Ivan Nova, A.J. Burnett, Gio Gonzalez, Brett Anderson, and Brandon McCarthy are all big curve guys, with Burnett, Gonzalez, and McCarthy among the league leaders in % of pitches thrown that are curves.  I'm not sure what that means.  Probably something.

Talkin' Twins

With baseball camps starting to open up and baseball preview magazines hitting the store shelves I can't help but to have my thoughts turn to baseball (and the fact that the Gophers are driving me crazy isn't helping).  Here are my quick thoughts (ok, probably not quick) on the team this season, position-by-position:

CATCHER:  Joe Mauer is going to be who Joe Mauer be, which means he'll probably hit around .330 and OBP over .400 - both outstanding numbers for a catcher.  The real question is if he has power more like in 2009, or is the 2010 version the real one.  Personally, I think 2009 was a bit of a fluke, but I think he has more power than we saw in 2010, although it's harder to see thanks to the power reducing abilities in Target Field.  I would put his HR total OVER/UNDER at 10.5, but as long as he keeps banging out those doubles his other numbers make him one of the most valuable players in the game.  And are we really going with Drew Butera at back-up catcher again?  Seeing as how he's the only other catcher on the 40-man roster and both of the other intriguing options (Morales, Ramos) were shipped off I guess so.  I mean, I like the guy, he's excellent defensively and his name is really fun to say, but you could DH for him and let the pitcher bat instead and at worst that's a lateral move.

CORNER INFIELD:  Was it really just two seasons ago Justin Morneau played in 163 games and finished second in the MVP balloting? It seems amazing given how fragile he's been and missing half a season after getting bumped in the head is a huge red flag.  It's hard to believe it's even possible he won't be ready to opening day, but then again I said the same thing about last August, September, and October.  Plus, we already know from Corey Koskie that the only reason somebody born in Canada plays baseball instead of hockey is because they can't take a hit, so temper your expectations, I've got a bad feeling about this.

As far as third base goes I liked what I saw out of Danny Valencia last year, but I didn't quite see enough to be ready to hand the job over to him for the next five years.  I'm also not sure what other options they have because Matt Tolbert should never, ever start a game and the only other 3B on the 40-man roster is Luke Hughes, but it's starting to look less and less likely that he's the guy.  I do like Valencia, and his second half numbers were still good and probably more what we're likely to see this year.  If the power he showed in September carries over, the Twins will likely have a very good defensive third baseman who hits .280/.320/.460.  Solid, but not spectacular.  Like Reese Witherspoon or Chipotle.

MIDDLE INFIELD:   I can't wait to hear Dick and Bert butcher Tsuyoshi Nishioka's name over and over again.  I guarantee that they come up with a nickname within a week of the season opener, probably something as simple as Yoshi, which is fine as long as it's not the next Kaz Matsui, which is what he's known as around my house.  Maybe I've just been beaten down by scrappy, light-hitting middle infielders with little to no plate discipline for so long that I have the same confidence in him that Jerry's mechanic has in that gasket.

And speaking of light hitting middle infielders, Alexi Casilla will get another chance to start, because as Lindsay Lohan and Dean Koontz have proven if you just keep giving second and third chances things will eventually work out.  Seriously, how is Dean Koontz on the best-sellers list all the time?  I read about 10 of his books just thinking I must have grabbed his bad ones and kept waiting to read a good one and I never found one.  Servants of Twilight was decent, but everything else is just total crap you'd have to have a brain injury or the intelligence of a lamp to enjoy.  Family Guy is mostly stupid and written for cretins, but I laughed my ass off during and episode right after Stephen King got hit by a car when Peter hit somebody with his car and goes "was that Stephen King?" and Lois says "No, it was Dean Koontz" and Peter puts the car in reverse and runs him over again.  Suck it, Koontzy.   

OUTFIELD:  Here we go again.  A bunch of mediocre to kind of good bats packaged along with terrible terrible terrible defense.  Honestly, with Young, Span, and Kubel out there if there was a contest between those three and Carlos Gomez all by himself who do you think would catch more fly balls?

Defense aside, Span is the biggest concern and he really needs to be more like his 2009 self than last year's version.  His walk rate dipped last year from 12.2% and 10.5% in 2008 and 2009 down to 8.5% last year and after walking 17 times in April he walked just 16 times in May & June combined and 17 times in September & October combined.  Basically he stopped walking and starting flying out too much.  He is absolutely a key to this team and needs to be their table-setter.

He also needs to find a way to get better defensively, because he needs to cover for the three corner guys:  Jason Kubel, Delmon Young, and Michael Cuddyer.  Young finally put up an offensive year his potential said was there, and although it feels like the kind of thing you can't quite trust, in fact he put up the best year of his career in the same year where his BABIP was at his career low.  Yes, low.  Meaning with a little more luck he could have had even better numbers.  I actually anticipate his power going down a bit, because I think that surge we saw was a little more fluky than anything else, but I can easily see him hitting .320 or so over the course of the year with 40 or so doubles and 15 homers.  That's a very, very good year.  If he ever figures out some plate discipline he would have a chance at being truly dangerous.

Kubel I don't know about anymore.  He's one of the best on the team when it comes to plate discipline, but regressed quite a bit from his career year in 2009.  A lot of that can be attributed to a BABIP of just .280, 20 points lower than his career mark, and he should be able to bounce back to something closer to that 2009 version than last year's, but the real problem is that Kubes continues to be absolutely dreadful against lefties and at this point I don't think you can wait for him to snap out of it.  If he's in the lineup even once against a left-handed pitcher it's one time too many.

Finally, Cuddy will be returning to the outfield, assuming Canada-boy gets himself back into play, and that's not exactly a good thing.  I know he's a great teammate and his ability and willingness to play any position where he's needed is an excellent quality to have, and he's got a great arm.  He is also nearly as slow as Young or Kubel and still refuses to lay off the outside slider in the dirt with two strikes despite the fact that every single pitcher throws it at him every single time he has two strikes on him.  Honest to god, how do people watch Mark Reynolds day-in and day-out?  Cuddyer doesn't strike out nearly as often as Reynolds, but he just makes me so angry.  I'm not even especially anti-strikeout, even if they are fascist, but he just looks so weak and over-matched when he does it.  At least Adam Dunn has the decency to swing hard when he misses a ball by 2 feet.

DH/BENCH:  Jim Thome should basically have the DH locked down.  I'd say the Twins would be better off sitting him against lefties, but what's your other option?  I already mentioned Butera and Tolbert, neither of whom could get a hit even if they were married to Whitney Houston.  And, assuming they carry 11 pitchers, they only other player on the bench will be Jason Repko.  I secretly love Repko and have even used his name as a password on an account for something or other, but sometimes reality sets in and I remember he OPSed just .671 last year, a number basically identical to Tolbert, even if Repko seems like 10x the hitter Tolby is.  So basically this is a pretty damn shallow bench. 

STARTERS:  Pretty underwhelming here, yeah?  I hate that they're just rolling with the same group, although I can't really come up with any kind of master plan to make it any better, but lame, right?  Baker is a #3/#4 on most teams, Slowey is a #4, Pavano - although I'm glad to have him back - is a #3, and Blackburn should be in AAA.  We still don't know how good Duensing can be, but I think his absolute upside is a #3, which leaves Liriano for the excitement factor, and the Twins seem to be doing everything they can to try to make sure he isn't in their long term plans, which is ludicrous considering his 3.62 ERA last year was basically a worst case scenario based looking at his other stats - Aaron Gleeman breaks it all down better than I ever could here.  Is it a good enough rotation to win the Central even though it's not as good as Chicago's group?  Yes.  Good enough to win the World Series?  Well, I'll just wait for Kyle Gibson while I ponder that one.  But no.

CLOSER:  I'd imagine that Matt Capps will start the year as the closer with Joe Nathan getting eased in, but if Nathan looks close to form he'll slide back into his old job.  That's as it should be since Nathan can be unhittable at times and has stuff Cappsy can only dream about.  And a full season of Nathan, regular season only I mean, makes me feel pretty good.  A full season of Capps makes me feel sweaty and nervous, like a fat girl before her first aerobics class.  Don't you fear he's got a little bit of Bobby Jenks in him?  Like, he's just a half mph or half inch or a little bit worse luck away from a 6.00 ERA?  To put it another way, if Nathan is even 90% back from injury his downside is basically Cappsy's upside.

BULLPEN:  As much as I don't love Capps as a closer, I think he's a good option as a set-up guy and that's good because if the starters are underwhelming the bullpen is just a picture of guy with a thought balloon and in that balloon is a question mark.  Basically other than Capps and Jose Mijares we have one gigantic guessing game, with the biggest question being, "Why the holy hell did they essentially get rid of Rob Delaney in order to grab Dusty Mother Effing Hughes, somebody so bad at pitching a baseball that the KC Royals didn't even want him?"  And who is Scott Diamond and why, by taking him in the Rule 5 draft, is he good enough to warrant a guaranteed spot on the major league active roster?  Jim Hoey is getting a lot of play as a guy who could be a big-time setup guy, but he hasn't pitched in the majors since 2007 and owns a career ERA over 8.  What about Neshek in year 2 since his elbow fell off?  Is Glen Perkins head on straight and is his stuff good enough to become a reliable bullpen option?  Can Anthony Slama's mustache get anybody out, or is he your classic AAAA type player?  Is Alex Burnett a mop-up/long relief type who won't embarrass you or something more?  Are Jeff Manship and Anthony Swarzak future starters, relievers, or ushers?  Why did Eric Hacker get a major league contract?

I mean, look at this.  That's what, 9 possible guys for 3-4 spots and doesn't even take into account that they have 6 non-Gibson starters for five spots.  I guess the one big positive is that they do have a lot of options, so maybe that increases the odds that enough of them work out to make this a viable, quality bullpen.  Sort of like increasing your chances of winning the Powerball by buying two tickets instead of one.

OVERALL OUTLOOK:  I don't know, man, it seems like everywhere I look the Twins are getting picked to win the central again, but I don't know.  It feels to me like the White Sox and Tigers did more this offseason and it wouldn't take much to push either of those teams out ahead of the Twins.  I haven't really broken down the rosters to really get a clear view, but right now it feels like the downside is a rough year and third place division finish, while the upside is a narrow division win and a quick exit from the playoffs.  It's hard to get excited about that.  Again.

But you know what?  I'll be watching.  Damn near every game.  And I'll be living and dying on damn near every pitch.  And when I'm fishing up at the cabin the radio will be tuned to the game every damn night.  Because it's the Twins, it's baseball, and I couldn't shake it if I tried.

Twins Season Wrap: 10 Roster Questions for Next Year

With the season officially in the crapper and my heart broken clean in two, I thought I'd look at some of the pressing offseason roster questions that Bill Smith and the Twins' front office are going to have to deal with, and then never speak of the Twisn again.  There are a lot of things that are going to change, which makes this year's defeat all the more soul crushing - the team was setup to win this year, and they failed.  Failed hard.  

1.  Will Morneau be back?  Hard to believe a simple knee to the head could end someone's career, but the fact that he missed the last three months of the season and still can't string together more than a few days without a relapse/dizzy spell who the hell knows what could happen.  I won't bother to just wildly speculate since I don't have any knowledge of it or any kind of medical background except what I learned on Scrubs, but as unfathomable as it seems that he might not be around next year, did you think there was even a slight chance he'd miss the rest of the season?

2.  How high will the payroll go?  Right now the Twins have seven players under contract for next year, but those seven (Mauer, Morneau, Nathan, Cuddyer, Baker, Span, and Blackburn) total $68 million in payroll.  Most other current Twins are arbitration eligible and most will get raises, so the Twins will have to make some hard decisions about who to keep and who to let go.  And wherever they let players go, I'd guess they try to plug those holes from within.  Will that mean Alexi Casilla as a full-time starter and Anthony Swarzak in the rotation?  I hope not, but it wouldn't surprise me.

3.  Jason Kubel's option?  Kubel had an off year this season, at least compared to the prior year, and has a team option remaining that the Twins can pick up which would pay him $5.25 million (or they can buy him out for $350k).  I hate having two defensive butchers at the corner outfield positions with him and Delmon, and Kubel is certainly more suited to a DH role, so his true value depends on whether Thome comes back.  Which, brings us to....

4.  Will Thome return on the cheap?  Jim Thome was only signed this year because he was willing to take a very cheap $1.5 million to come play part time.  With Morneau's injury and subsequent position shifting of everyone, his value skyrocketed and he more than proved himself worth every penny.  If Morneau comes back, Thome goes back to his part-time role.  Would he be willing to do it again, or at this point does he want to be full-time player again?

5. What's going to happen with Delmon Young?  Delmon is arbitration eligible and made $2.6 million last year, but coming off the year he had, including surpassing magic numbers of 20 HRs and 100 RBI, he's going to get a healthy raise if they go to arbitration.  If his agent is worth his shit, however, they'll be pushing for a long-term contract, and the question is if the Twins will go for it.  Nick Markakis of the Orioles had a similar year in 2008 and ended up signing a 6-year, $66 million deal.  Are you ready to pay Delmon $11 per year?  

6.  How is the bullpen going to shake out?  Joe Nathan is the only bullpen guy with a guaranteed contract for next season, so this is where a lot of choices are going to have to be made.  Fuentes is a free agent and will be gone, but everybody else is a question mark.  Matt Guerrier, Jessie Crain, and Jon Rauch are all free agents and Matt Capps is arbitration eligible and will get a significant raise from the $3.5 million he made this year if he's offered.  With the payroll already where it is, they probably won't be bringing everybody back, and I'd be pretty shocked if Rauch is a Twin next season.

7.  How will the middle infield look next year?  Orlando Hudson is a free agent, and I'd be pretty shocked if they brought him back, while J.J. Hardy, Alexi Casilla, and Matt Tolbert are all arbitration eligible.  Hardy made $5.1 million this year, and even if he doesn't get a raise that is still a pretty high number for medium production, but the alternatives make me want to kill myself.  Unless they decide to try to pay for Juan Uribe, a free agent from the Giants next year, Hardy is pretty much the only viable option.  And if they start next year with Punto as their starting SS, we might as well just give the season up for dead.  Speaking of......

8.  They can't possibly pick up Nick Punto's option, right?  The choices are to either agree to pay him $5 million next year (Five.  Freaking.  Million) or buy him out for $500k.  Putting aside how terrible that contract was, I know they are in love with him over at Target Field but even they have to realize that $5MM is a ridiculous number for a good fielding utility man, right?  Their best bet would be to buy him out, then offer him a contract for a year in the $500k - $1 million range to be their back up, although they should probably just pay him the minimum since he's essentially stolen over $13 million from the Twins the last few years. 

9.  Will the 'stache be back?  This might be the toughest decision to make, since Carl Pavano was brilliant all year and carried the team at times.  Of course, pitchers who are brilliant and carry their team generally make a lot of money.  He made $7 million this year, and, unless the Twins move quickly, will hit the open market, and who knows who is going to offer him what and for how long.  One advantage is that there is no way the Yankees will be after him since he burned them once before, but there are plenty of other teams who have money and need pitching.  Whatever the cost, I would be nervous giving Pavano anything more than a 2-year deal, but if you want to keep him you might have to, and don't be shocked if he makes $10+ million per year with a new deal.

10.  Pavano or no, what about the rest of the rotation?  Baker is pretty much stuck since he's got a contract ($5 million next year) as is Blackburn ($3 million), Brian Duensing is still under team control, so he'll be here, and Francisco Liriano will be back as well, whether it's through arbitration or if they decide to sign him longer term.  Slowey is also still under arbitration, so I'd expect him to be back as well.  None of the in-house options are very attractive at this point, unless Kyle Gibson has just an amazing spring, so I'd expect the rotation to look pretty similar to start the year, with those five above the guys they go with if they don't end up signing Pavano.  There will probably be a few other scraps on the open market, because they'll have no shot at Cliff Lee, but I wouldn't expect the Twins to go after anybody unless they think they can get a steal on a veteran they think is undervalued (like Pavano was).  I wouldn't be shocked to see Javier Vazquez as a Twin next year, although if I was to bet on it I'd guess next year's rotation would be Liriano, Duensing, Baker, Slowey, and Blackbun.  Doesn't that just get you fired up? 


Well, there you have it.  It will be interesting to see what they end up doing in a variety of areas, and to see the results.  Worst case, the team takes a nosedive and sucks.  Best case, another division title and they get swept out of the first round of the playoffs.  Either way, it guarantees a season ending in frustration.  Thank god college hoops isn't too far away, because Gopher basketball is never frustrating.

Catchers and pitchers report in 19 weeks.

Weekend Review - 9.20.2010

 Well, the Gophers lost to USC, which I don't think surprised anyone, but they didn't embarrass themselves, which did surprise some - myself included.  So how do you categorize that loss?  I wouldn't say they sucked, because they didn't embarrass themselves, but is not embarrassing yourself considered a success these days?  If it is, that means my work day is successful 80% of the time, which I like, but I can't give a whole lot of credit to a team that is in a BCS conference for only losing by two touchdowns to the worst version of USC in years.  They played, and they didn't suck.  I guess, sadly, that really could be considered a success in Brewster's Gopher Nation.  Ouch. 

 WHO WAS AWESOME

1.  Troy Tulowitzki.  I think we need a new word for this guy, because hot doesn't begin to do him justice.  Remember the other day when I mentioned how he had hit 11 home runs in his last 13 games?  And described that as jesus?  Well, since then he hit a home run on Friday and followed it up with 2 more on Saturday.  You know there's regular (and sugar free) Red Bull, but then they also have the little Red Bull shots that are more concentrated and give you a shorter, stronger burst of probably super healthy energy?  I feel like Tulowitzki must be on that version of HGH - not a whole season worth or anything, just enough to hit a ridiculous amount of home runs in a small period of time.*  Seriously dude, I am all-in for Rocktoberfest.  Assuming the make the playoffs, of course.  If not I never liked them anyway.

2.  Felix Hernandez.  King Felix added a little more fuel to the Cy Young fire, nearly pitching a no-hitter against Texas Friday before allowing a home run to Nelson Cruz in the 8th, ending up with just 8 strong innings and a rare win.  Rare enough that a bit of a nerd fight has broken out amongst the stat nerds and the old school traditionalists over who deserves to win the Cy Young award this year.  Here are the top 3 candidates:

• C.C. Sabathia:  20-6, 3.05 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 183 Ks, 224 IPs
• David Price:  17-6, 2.79 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 172 Ks, 194 IPs
• Felix:  12-11, 2.35 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, 222 Ks, 234 IPs

Clearly Felix is the best pitcher this season, and technically that's what the Cy Young Award is supposed to recognize, and that's what the seamheads are saying - give the award to the best pitcher.  However, he's only got 12 wins, and is barely over .500 for the year.  It's just not going to happen yet.  Last year was a move in the right direction and a big win for the nerds with Zack Greinke bringing home the hardware despite winning just 16 games, but there was no 20 game winner last year.  Sabathia has his twenty already, and like it or not, there's some magic in that number.  It's his to lose (he's -200 in Vegas, Felix isn't even on the board).

3.  Ryan Mallet.  I really like this kid.  Of course, that could be because I've only seen two of his game, one from last year when he won me two bets, the over on his completions and his yards, that I placed on a tip from a friend and then this week's game where he threw for 380 yards and 3 TDs, including the game winner (and Arkansas +3 bet winner) with fifteen seconds to go.  Plus, he just looks like a big-time QB back there.  A pure thrower with a good pocket presence and good fundamentals.  And he should, he's got the pedigree:  #2 QB and #4 overall player in his high school class by Rivals and Gatorade High School Player of the Year in Texas his senior year.  Texas!  You've seen Varsity Blues, you know what it's like down there.  He's like Lance Harbor, but without the knee injury.  He was smart to leave Michigan after Rodriguez signed on since he's no Major Harris, but he does remind me quite a little bit of Peyton Manning now that he's at Arkansas.  High praise?  Yes.  Kind of stupid to say since I've only seen two of his games?  Absolutely.  Is that going to stop me?  Hell no.

4.  Jahvid Best.  The Lions still suck, but at least they have another exciting young player to add to Calvin Johnson in Best.  After a huge day that saw him gain over 230 total yards and score 3 times he now has five TDs through two games to lead the NFL.  One of his TDs yesterday was a 75 yard screen pass, a play where he showecased the speed and vision that will make him a top back in the future, and also scored on a 2-yd run showing he has some power to his game as well.  The Lions now have the skill positions set, if they can just fix a terrible, terrible defense and shore up an awful, awful offensive line, and then find a second and third receiver, they'll be all set.

5.  Matt Schaub.  Remember how, not all that long ago, the Atlanta Falcons had this awesome back-up who everybody wanted because everyone knew he was going to be a very good QB, but the Falcons couldn't keep him because the Michael Vick and were all set to go with him for the future and so they traded Schaub to the Texans?  Oops.  Schaub threw for 497 yards and 3 TDs yesterday, continuing his streak of always throwing for a ridiculous amount of yards in every game ever.  Oh, and in case you're curious, which I was, Schaub was traded for two second-round picks and a swap of firsts.  The Falcons acquired DE Jamaal Anderson and OG Justin Blaylock, then traded the other second rounder to Washington for something I'm too lazy to look up.  Since I've never heard of either of those people, I'm going to say it was a bad trade.

WHO SUCKED


1.  Brett Favre.  Sorry folks, but it looks to me like the magical ride is over.  There's no fairy dust left in that arm.  Not only has his lost his biggest strength - his arm - but he looks like the one trait he had that seemed to make him bulletproof, unstable, and impervious to age is gone as well; that stupid cliched love of the game thing.  It was annoying to hear about every five minutes, but it kept him going.  Now that he looks more like the Brett Favre in his last days as a Packer than the Brett Favre from last year, aging should commence rapidly.  Expect him to be out with an injury by week 9, and likely fold up shop for good around week 12 or 13.  I'm fully expecting a mid-season retirement, but in any case there's no doubt this isn't a playoff team.  Even as good as the defense and AP are, I think even 8 wins would be a miracle.  Sorry folks.  Time to turn your hopes and dreams to the Gopher basketball team.  And, I guess, hockey if you like that kind of garbage.  Sicko.

2. Chicago White Sox.  Talk about rolling over.  I know they needed to sweep the Twins with a small chance at hope if they won at least 2 of three, and I know since they got swept the season is 99% over, but talk about going out with a whimper.  First the sweep by the Twins, in which they barely had to break a sweat, and then went ahead and got swept by the Tigers, losing the lead in all three games thanks to that crappy bullpen, including the game last night where they scored 4 in the ninth to send it to extra innings, only to watch Sergio Santos give up the game in the 11th, just one night after he blew the game in the 8th.  So to recap, in the biggest spot of the season and needing to make a big run the Sox got swept in back-to-back series at home against their two biggest division rivals.  Talk about gutless.  Sounds more like a Vikings thing. 

3.  Jake Locker.  Funny story about Locker.  I heard something on the radio about him being the likely #1 pick in next year's NFL draft earlier this week, and how he was facing a pretty tough task in Nebraska's defense this weekend and it would be interesting to see how he did.  Well, the answer is:  shitty.  Locker went 4-20 passing on the day, for a grand total of 71 yards as Washington got rolled by the Huskers 56-21.  I'm sure he's a good QB and all, but let's just say I'm not super impressed.  More like the opposite of that. 

4.  Joe Flacco.  Man this is a QB heavy suck list, but how can I leave off Flacco and his career worst four interceptions?   There is no way the Ravens are going to do much with him at QB.  He's like a bad version of Trent Dilfer, and he couldn't do a thing against Cincinnati on Sunday - thus the four interceptions.   And they were just awful picks, too.  If he had been intentionally throwing to the Bengal d-backs he couldn't have made it easier for them.  So am I saying Joe Flacco threw the game?  Yes. 

5.  Jason Kubel.  Players get hurt, I know, and with the notable exception of Justin Morneau they return and all is fine.  Except with Jason Kubel, this week was the semifinals in our fantasy baseball league, and Snake and I had advanced that far and needed to make a decision about our third outfield spot:  Jason Kubel or Delmon Young.  We went Kubel, in part because he was hotter than Delmon, in part because he was more consistent than Delmon, and in part because the guy we were playing had dropped Kubel earlier so we figured the revenge factor would be strong.  Unfortunately, we didn't get to find out about the revenge factor, because the "I'm a little girl and my wrist hurts" factor won out.  So yes, both of Delmon's homers this week and his 3-hit game tore my soul open a little bit.  The worst part?  Delmon outscored Kubel by 19, and we ended up losing by 49.  So, um, I guess if we had played Delmon the loss would have been a little bit less embarrassing, and since that's the new standard for success around here, Kubel owes me big-time.   



* = since that one insignificant blogger got the shit ripped out of him last year for a throwaway comment about how  people should ask about Raul Ibanez being on Roids after his hot start last year, I feel the need to point out that I'm fucking kidding.  And if you can't figure that out, you're a jackass.  And also you should die.