Fare thee Well, Ben Revere

The Twins, taking my advice and not standing pat, continued making moves at the Winter Meetings to improve pitching in the organization, a desperate and drastic need, this time shipping out Ben Revere to the Phillies for a couple of young arms, and in a Shyamalanian twist the return they got for him looks more impressive than what they got for his predecessor (mentor?  elder?) Denard Span.

I was a little bit surprised they would trade Revere since it seeded like such a natural thing to slide him into Span's spot, but it makes a lot of sense.  Revere is an elite fielder and has elite speed, but his lack of power, noodle arm, and questionable plate discipline were all major questions.  With his high rate of contact and slap hitting plus the speed and no power Revere's upside was pretty much Juan Pierre, which is fine, but when you have a chance to move a possible next Pierre for two good arms under 25 you pretty much have to do it.  When you also factor in that Aaron Hicks is a year away and considered a better prospect, not to mention eight billion other OFers who make up practically the Twins' entire top prospects list, it becomes a no brainer.

In getting Vance Worley from the Phillies the Twins' pick up a major league ready arm who still has upside, which is exactly what I'd hoped they'd end up getting by trading Span (although I am happy with the return they ended up getting for Denard).  Worley has been in the rotation for the Phils for the past two seasons (most of the time) and has put up an ERA of 3.60 with a WHIP of 1.37 those two years while striking out 7.7 batters per 9 innings, a stat I can only assume that confused the Twins since they hate striking guys out.  Worley isn't really a pure strikeout guy since his fastball maxes out in the low 90s (more like exactly 90, really) and he doesn't have a killer strikeout pitch (and actually his contact rate of 86.2% is about what Carl Pavano's was in his days as a Twin so it doesn't really make sense he strikes out nearly a batter an inning.  There are plenty of pitchers, however, who continue to defy what their peripheral stats say they should morph into at some point so it wouldn't be unprecedented for him to keep this up.  In any case it's not something to worry about.  Worley is a 25 year old middle-of-the-rotation starter who is now either the Twins' best or second best starter, depending on your feelings about Scott Diamond.  At that age there's still room for him to get better, and Worley would have been an acceptable return for Revere (or Span), but the Twins' got more.  Plus, dude rocks the Rec Specs.  Holla.

NERD.  ALERT.

Perhaps because Worley is coming off elbow surgery (although should be just fine) the Twins were also able to finagle Trevor May in the deal, and this my friends is one intriguing prospect.  Both Baseball America and MinorLeagueBall.com listed May as the Phillies #1 prospect coming into last year on the strength of a mid-90s fastball and some ridiculous strikeout rates (11 K/9 or better in every stop after rookie ball).  He hit Double-A this year and things were a little rougher, posting an ERA of 4.87 and a WHIP of 1.45, although he still struck out more than a batter per inning (9.1 per 9).   By all accounts May was struggling with location, which manifested itself both in more walks (4.7 per  nine) and hits allowed (8.4 per nine).  Interestingly, the 4.7 BB/9 was worse than the previous year, but was still better than 2008, 2009, and 2010 - the increased hits allowed is the real concern.  Given the Twins' relative success in developing pitchers with control - although generally that manifests more as few walks rather than pinpoint control - I'm cautiously optimistic.  In any case, dude has #1 stuff by all accounts and despite the issues with his command last year he's still considered the Twins #5 overall prospect by MLB.com (Sano/Buxton/Meyer/Hicks/May).  Awesome.

Looking at the two trades, let's count the positives:

1.  Traded a good, not great, player, but at a position where a MLB ready back-up was available with a comparable skill set to upgrade a position of weakness

2.  Traded a low cost, quality but limited player for two badly needed assets with a replacement a year away.

3.  Acquired a low cost, team controlled middle-of-the rotation (2-3-4 depending on development) starter under the age of 25.

4.  Acquired 2 big-time prospects with the potential to develop #1 type stuff who aren't soft-tossing nancy boys and actually show an interest in making people swing and miss.

5.  Recognized the team's biggest weakness (pitching throughout the organization) and biggest area of depth (Young OFers) and moved one for the other.

6.  Recognized that occasionally it's good to have pitchers who throw the ball so hard that professional hitters can't catch up to hit and/or have so much movement they can't hit it. 

And the negatives:

1.  Denard Span was a true leadoff hitter with a lead-off hitter skill set who was very affordable.

2.  Ben Revere was really fun to watch and a good guy who was super duper affordable.

3.  Darin Mastroianni will probably have to play CF now and maybe even lead-off too which is kind of gross.

That's all I got.  There's really no way to hate these trades, especially the Revere one.  The team upgraded it's biggest weakness (organization wide) by using it's biggest strength without hurting the future, only the present where they weren't going to contend anyway, while acquiring the exact type of player they're shied away from which has proven to be the type that can make a major difference.  Freaking awesome.  Even that Mastroianni crack was a little overdone, because he's not that big a drop from Revere.  Using WAR (and I confess I don't know what this means other than it tries to measure total value and is impacted by plate appearances) Revere was a 3.4 in 553 PAs, Mastroianni was a 1.5 in just 186.  Game freaking on, brohan.  We goin' Sizzla.



As far as the Gophers won pretty easily in LA, beating USC 71-57 by doing what they've done all year:  tough perimeter defense (USC 1-9 on 3s, hitting the boards (out-rebounded the Trojans 36-29), turned over the opponent (17 TOs), and moved the ball (16 assists).  Since the game was on the Pac-10 Network which nobody in Minneapolis gets and I went to the bar with Bogart, Bear, Snake, Dawger, and Crazy Eddie instead of staying in and watching it on my computer I don't really have much else to say.  They're now poised to crusie to wins over NDSU and LaFayette and go into their December 31 game against Michigan State at 12-1 and likely ranked in or near the Top 10.  Michigan State at home is pretty much the perfect test for this team if you want to know where they stand.  If they're as good as I think they are they should handle Sparty at home.  If they don't, you know we're looking at fool's gold once again.  Pretty much the biggest game in Gopher history since the Final Four.  No biggie.

Fare thee Well, Denard Span

As I'm certain everyone is aware by now the Twins traded Denard Span late last week to the Nationals for minor league pitching prospect Alex Meyer.  At first blush I was down on the trade, having hoped the Twins could turn the talented Span into a MLB ready mid-rotation starter type (like Jeremy Hellickson, for example) but the more I've read about it and spent time thinking about the move the more I like it.

Meyer (and you can read more about him here at Aaron Gleeman's blog or Keith Law at ESPN or really anywhere they talk Twins) is a former first round pick who lit up A and A+ ball in his first pro season last year.  He's already 22 so the good numbers are not surprising for an older player at that level, but that also means that he should progress through the system fairly rapidly, hopefully landing at AAA at some point this coming season and then ready for the rotation in 2014.  He throws in the mid-90s and can touch 100 at times (which means his downside is likely a pretty good reliever although hopefully it doesn't come to that) and has what one scout I read somewhere called "a truly filthy slider."  He's working on a change-up as a third pitch that apparently "could become average" which doesn't sound great but as a third pitch is just fine when he already has two plus pitches.  Even better, he struck out more than a batter an inning which means the Twins have recognized that having soft-tossing strike throwers is fine, but you can't have those exclusively and need some power arms.  With Meyer, Kyle Gibson, and a couple of the guys they drafted this year they seem to at least be recognizing that fact.  I also heard that Meyer is now the #1 pitching prospect in the system, ahead of Gibson.  He's a really, really good get for the team.

Losing Span certainly hurts (he was one of my favorites after Kubel left), but a move with him had to made.  He's one of the sickeningly few attractive trade pieces this team has with his elite leadoff skills, quality defense, and team friendly contract and the Twins need to rebuild the entire organization at this point.  With Revere ready to step in now and hopefully Aaron Hicks in two years the Twins already have guys who have the potential to replace Span's skillset.  Revere is a better outfielder already and has increased his OBP each of the last two seasons, reaching .333 in 2012 which was just shy of Span's number (.342) and actually better than Denard's OBP in 2011, and Hicks is supposed to be even better.  Add in the organizational depth of top prospects in the outfield (Buxton, Arcia, Rosario, even Joe Benson plus Hicks) and it was a no brainer to get the best they could for Span, and it looks like they got a pretty good return, even if it's a lottery ticket of sorts.

From here I can see two viable directions for the Twins to go in.  On one hand, you say, this team and organization is broken, time to rebuild.  Trade every asset for whatever you can get.  Willingham should certainly bring a decent package, and for the right team needing a first baseman Justin Morneau would be attractive - although in his case you're probably better off waiting for this year's trade deadline when other team's needs seem more urgent and hopefully he can show he's all the way (or nearly) back.  I don't know if they have anybody else they could possibly trade (Doumit?).  Maybe Glen Perkins if he gets a bunch of saves and somebody is desperate for a lefty reliever.  It's also possible they see Perkins as their closer of the future (hint:  he's not) and won't shop him, but they should if they go in this direction.

The other way to go is to try to sign the right mix of players to turn this into a competitive team, which basically means pitching.  With Span gone that gives them somewhere in the neighborhood of $30 million in payroll to play with, based on their comment about a payroll target for this year.  You can do some good things and become a competitive team in this horrible division for that kind of money.  You could sign Brandon McCarthy ($5 mil), Edwin Jackson ($11 mil), Kevin Correia ($5 mil), and like, Marco Scutaro ($8 mil).  I don't know how long you'd want to/have to extend those guys, but then you're looking at this lineup:

CF Revere
2b Scutaro
C  Mauer
LF Willingham
1B Morneau
DH Doumit
3B Plouffe
RF Parmalee
SS Dozier

Not bad.  Don't forget the Twins had a solid offensive team last year, and this is a pretty similar look with Revere in for Span and Scutaro in for Casilla.  That's a net win.

And here's your rotation:

1.  Jackson
2.  McCarthy
3.  Diamond
4.  Correia
5.  Deduno/Devries/Hendriks, etc.

Certainly better than last year.

Can that team, assuming an adequate bullpen which admittedly is a pretty big assumption, compete in the AL Central?  Probably for second place, and they aren't going to be in the Wild Card race.

I can see, and make an argument for, either approach.  I would probably prefer to trade away everybody and try to remake the entire team, but I can also see something like the above to stay competitive to keep bringing the rubes to the park and pocketing that sweet cash to hopefully re-invest in the team.  Naturally, the Twins will probably do something like sign Freddy Garcia and Derek Lowe and Wilson Valdez and Austin Kearns and call it a day, not making any moves for the future nor significantly upgrading the team and ending up sucking again while not building for the future.

Then again, Terry Ryan is back instead of Bill Smith, so there's some reason for optimism.  Either way, it's going to be an interesting off-season.  Actually it already has been.  Do more, Terry.

DWG College Basketball Preview: Teams #11-7

Apparently the lastest news, apart from some kind of election or something that is going on, is that the Twins are apparently interested in trading for James Shields of the Rays.  I'm not sure I'm buying that this team would do such a drastic move but that would be pretty sweet.  If they trade for Shields and sign someone like Brandon McCarthy or Edwin Jackson suddenly everything looks a whole lot better.  Then your rotation is Shields/McCarthy or Jackson/Diamond/Baker and then that whole mess of young dorks.  I feel pretty good about throwing all those guys into a competition for the fifth starter, especially as compared to needed three of them to be in the rotation as we stand now.

And what would it take to get Shields?  Denard Span at a minimum, but with the Rays needed to shed Shields salary and Span's contract is so team friendly through 2015 they might be willing to do it for just him, especially since they're expecting B.J. Upton to sign elsewhere so they'll need a CF.  I'm willing to give up Span as much as I like him just because Ben Revere's skill set is so close to his so losing Span doesn't really hurt that much.  The other rumor is they might want either Parmelee or Morneau as well to fill that black hole at first that is Carlos Pena, and I'd be fine giving up either to get Shields.  I'd be a little bit surprised if they want Morneau because of his salary, but if they can talk the Twins into picking up a chunk of his money then it could happen.  Either way making that trade significantly upgrades the rotation without hurting the lineup too much, so it's got to happen.  Which means it won't. 

On to the stuff:
 

11.  Ohio State Buckeyes.  I don't really get the high ranking for Ohio State in all the polls.  To be honest, I think 11 is a little bit high but I don't want to look like too big of an idiot and have them at 20 or something.  I know DeShaun Thomas is a scoring machine and I know Aaron Craft is a very, very good on ball defender, but beyond that everything is a mystery.  Can Craft excel when he has to be more the focal point of the offense?  Will that make his defense suffer?  Can Lenzelle Smith stop shooting bricks and become the scorer and shooter the Buckeyes need?  Sam Thompson and Amir Williams certainly have the pedigree to become stars or at least quality starters, but will they?  They're about to go from benchwarmer minutes to starters.  There's a shit load of other guys here too who have really impressive high school stats and good rankings when they came out, but they haven't proven anything.  Maybe Ohio State will be really good and be a Final Four contender yet again, but there are just way too many questions for me to have them in my top 10, let alone top 5.  Ask Jonathan Bender, Charles Rogers, and Brien Taylor about potential. 

10.  Missouri Tigers. I just read a thing on ESPN where they said the Tigers have the best back court in America and you know how much I love guards.  Mizzou would normally be in tough straights losing four starters off of last year's squad, but for whatever reason they've become a transfer haven lately and should be a getting a massive boost.   They will once again be mainly perimeter oriented, but Alex Oriakhi is in from UCONN and Laurence Bowers is back after an ACL injury that caused him to miss all of last season and those two alone are some considerable talent up front.  They have maybe the most fun PG to watch in the country (outside Andre Hollins of course) back in Phil Pressey as well as last year's sixth man Michael Dixon and add a whole mess of talented wing guys from Oregon, Auburn, and Pepperdine.  That, my friends, is a well built, well balanced team who is also going to run the hell out of you.  So much fun to watch.  There's a reason why I have a Missouri sweatshirt.  Mainly because it was $7 at Barry & Steve's.  RIP.

9.  Florida Gators.  The Gators are similar to Missouri in that they are perimeter oriented and I own or once owned a $7 sweatshirt from Barry & Steve's of them, but while Missouri probably has more questions the Gators might be looking at the biggest question:  who replaces Erving Walker?  Yeah, Bradley Beal is gone to the NBA and he was a bigger scorer than Walker, but Mike Rosario (former Rutgers dude and a big-time recruit) should be just fine stepping in, while Walker has been the team's starting PG for the last four years and there's no obvious replacement.  Kenny Boynton could slide over but he really, really loves to shoot (although in fairness so did Walker).  The other choices are a freshman (#7 PG frosh in the country by ESPN but still) or a junior who averaged just 15 minutes and 2.6 ppg last season.  As long as they figure that out they'll be a Final Four candidate because they're loaded with talent, and since Billy Donovan is a disciple of college basketball coaching jesus I'm sure the Gators will be just fine.  I really wish I knew what I did with that damn sweatshirt.  I want to wear it when they make the Final Four.

8.  Duke Blue Devils.  More like Puke, am I right?  I think I made that joke last year, but I, like the majority of America, just really dislike these guys.  Partially it's the overall douchbaggery, partially it's the entitlement, partially it's the reverence the national media bestows upon them, partially it's the constant whining of their rat-faced coach, and partially it's that they have a little floor-slapping weiner named Wojo as their big man coach.  Oh, you weren't aware?  Yes, Floppy McDiveonfloor himself is Duke's big man coach.  Suddenly it seems less of a wonder that they haven't had a good big man since Elton Brand when the guy who is supposed to be developing all this front line talent (and they still get the talent, it just never develops) is busy teaching them how to draw charges and miss three pointers.  Hopefully that never changes.  In conclusion, Duke will be pretty good all year and then lose in the first or second round of the tournament and America will once again rejoice amen.

7.  Kentucky Wildcats.  How exactly do you write about a team that has turned over it's entire roster?  Oh yeah, Kyle Wiltjer is back and is supposed to be pretty good and stuff.  Ryan Harrow will be the starting PG this year and I remember him from his NC State days, he was pretty good.  And the rest is transfers, guys who didn't play last year, and freshmen.  And yes, once again they're a really good group of recruits and next year is shaping up to be even stronger.  Say what you will about Calipari, like that if he and an orange were having a coaching battle I'd take Cal but I'd have to think about it, but he figured the game out before anyone else.  While most coaches were fighting the one-and-done culture and trying to figure out how to get kids to stay he embraced it and made it part of his team's model to the point where he can nearly pick and choose his recruits knowing that Calipari and Kentucky will embrace the fact that he'll only be there for a single season.  That, as well as Calipari's record with getting the most from his kids in that single year and getting them drafted, is awfully attractive for that very top tier talent.  He's made it work, he beat everyone else to it, and now he's got a dynasty on his hands and there's no reason to think it's going to stop any time soon.  You've got to give him credit for that.  I will now go wander into rush hour traffic.

Previous:
Teams #68-60
Teams #59-53
Teams #52-47 
Teams #46-39 
Teams #38-34 
Teams #33-26 
Teams #25-20 
Team #19 (GOPHERS) 
Teams #18-12

Twins Remain Delusional, Make no Moves at Trade Deadline

Aargh this is frustrating.  Once again, the Twins made no moves at the trade deadline (outside of the Liriano deal) despite being irrefutably out of playoff contention and having players other teams covet but who don't or shouldn't figure in the team's future plans - you know, the perfect combination to make a whole bunch of trades (see:  Astros, Houston).  Last season the team had Jason Kubel, Michael Cuddyer, and Joe Nathan (among others) who were all going to be free agents and all could have been traded away, yet none were.  I was frustrated but understood the thinking at least, given that the Twins would receive a draft pick for each once they signed somewhere else - that isn't the case this year.

There were reports of team's after Denard Span, Justin Morneau, Josh Willingham, Jared Burton, and Glen Perkins, and there was absolutely no reason to hold on to Morneau or Burton (and maybe not Perkins either, depending on your opinion of his future).  At this point the Twins need to realize they're at least two more years if not more away from contending and it's time to figure out who is going to be a part of this team when it comes back around, assuming it does, and then trade everybody else.  Span is still a pure leadoff hitter, and although he and Revere are somewhat redundant he's also signed to a very team friendly deal through 2015 so there's no reason to trade him unless a deal knocks you on your ass, which apparently the Reds didn't do today - although if you could get Homer Bailey and a couple good prospects I'd have pulled the trigger.  Willingham's kind of in the same boat, pretty much the team's only pure power hitter who is also signed to a great contract through 2014, so I get holding on to him too.  But the rest?

Morneau has a big contract, owed $14 million next year and a pro-rated $14 for the rest of this year so it might be a litter tougher to get full value back, but it was reported the Dodgers, Giants, and Blue Jays were all after him, but the Twins were asking for too much back, including a major leaguer in return and having the team that received Morneau pick up his entire contract.  Well guess what?  If you can't get that this year you sure as shit aren't going to get it next year when he's just going to be a two month rental for some team.  At least this year whatever team traded for him would get an entire year and change out of the deal.  Now?  They've basically gambled that he can get himself back to a $14 million a year player, at which point they won't be able to afford to resign him after his contract is up because they're hamstrung by the Mauer deal.  Best case scenario at this point is he plays out of his mind, walks, and they get a pick.  Well played, Terry Ryan.

And as for Burton and Perkins?  They're relievers.  Relievers pretty much grow on trees.  Reports are the Rangers were going after Burton and that "Perkins was in high demand today."  What?  For what reason would you possibly hold on to middle relievers when you aren't a contender?  Perkins, maybe, if you've decided he's your closer of the future (foolish, but it at least makes some sense) but Burton?  The average lifespan of a middle reliever on a team is 1.2 years, a figure I completely made up but it sounds right.  From year-to-year they're notoriously unreliable, and the odds Burton is on this team when they're back in contention are basically nil.  It just doesn't make a lick of sense.

Who on this team might possibly matter in the future?  Mauer, because they're stuck with him.  Span, Revere, Willingham, Dozier, Plouffe, and Parmelee?  I mean, I like Ryan Doumit quite a bit, but on a team like the Twins he's just a placeholder so if anybody comes sniffing around him (and it sounds like nobody did this year) he's another one who should be traded.  Diamond's pretty much the only starter worth penciling in your 2014 rotation, and between their lack of value and youth they'll obviously hold on to guys like DeVries, Deduno, Walters, and Hendriks, but pretty much everybody else needs to go and if they don't trade Carl Pavano at the waiver deadline I'm going to start making Molotov Cocktails.

There's no point to being shitty with old, crappy players who are going to be out of the league by the time you stop sucking.  The Astros have it figured out, trading Chris Johnson, Wandy Rodriguez, Brett Myers, Brandon Lyon, J.A. Happ, and Carlos Lee in the last month.  Basically everybody they knew wasn't a key building block or had no chance of developing into one.  The Pirates used this basic strategy for years, and are now in line to make the playoffs for the first time since Barry Bonds couldn't throw out Sid Bream.  Their leadoff hitter for most of this season (Jose Tabata) and one of their starters (Jeff Karstens) were acquired for Damaso Marte and Xavier Nady in 2008, their second guy off the bench and super utility man was acquired from the Cubs for two middle relievers in 2009, two other starters were acquired in the Nate McLouth trade (Charlie Morton) and Octavio Dotel trade (James McDonald), and they got their closer (Joel Hanrahan) for Lastings Milledge when they gave up on him.  They've also got great organizational depth thanks to the sheer volume of prospects and minor leaguers they've acquired.  Of course, it also helps that they've nailed the draft recently (Pedro Alvarez, Andrew McCutchen, Neil Walker, Gerrit Cole, Jameson Taillon, Starling Marte) but the point stands.

And of course, what do Dick and Bert open up tonight's broadcast with?  How glad they are nobody other than Liriano was traded.  Honest to god I think I'd rather have Hawk Harrelson's over-the-top homer shtick than this aw shucks folksy we love these boys bullshit these two keep slingin'.  No wonder the Twins' brass can get away with this, the announcers are feeding the fans this crap and they're eating it up based on what I've heard on the radio and read on the internet.  It's like some sort of crazy collective delusion where everybody thinks this team is team is thisclose to being a contender again - like a cult like those Waco guys or the Mormons or Dyson Vacuum Cleaner Owners.  Guess what, idiots?  This is the worst version of the Twins we've seen in our lifetimes.  FACT.  The 1981 and 1982 editions were a worse combo than 2011 and 2012, but I was too young to care or even realize what was going on, and outside of then this is the worst two year stretch in team history.  There is no quick fix.  When you need to burn your house down for insurance money and then build a new, better house you don't run around swapping out a few chairs for equally shitty, but different chairs - you burn that mother down with gasoline and a bazooka.  Like Beavis would.

Ben Revere

I suppose it's high time we talked about Ben Revere, who is hitting .342 this season, which is behind only Paul Konerko in the American League among players with at least 100 at-bats.  So, what's up?

Since being recalled from the minors and pretty much put into the lineup, Revere has hit .355 with 11 multi-hit games.  I'm pretty sure that's really good but when I tried to see where that ranked him I see that there have been 3,964 multi-hit games this year and since you can only download the data for 300 at one time I'm going to go ahead and not do anything further with this information.  He is being helped out by a very high BABIP of .365 right now, but with his speed he's bound to beat out a few more balls than most so I'd expect that to settle in around .310 or so.  His walk rate is down a bit, but it was always pretty obvious he wasn't going to be a walk machine so that's not all that troubling to me, and more encouraging is his K-rate has nearly been cut in half, which shows he's figuring out big league pitching.  His line drive rate has also increased compared to last year and he has yet to hit a pop-up in 2012.  These are all encouraging signs that although he might not be a .340 hitter, he's probably trending towards that .310-.320 type of mark.  Excellent.

One of the biggest concerns with Revere last year was an almost complete lack of power.  His Isolated Power (SLG-AVG, a way to look at slugging without it being inflated by a high batting average) last season was just .042, which ranked him dead last in the majors behind such bombers as Juan Pierre, Jason Bartlett, and our own Jamey Carroll.  It wasn't just a lack of power, it was a frightening lack of power.  Happily, with five doubles and two triples so far this year, he's nearly doubled his ISO to .081 - still near the bottom of the league, but at least he's showing middle infielder power now instead of little leaguer power.  His increase in line drive rate says he could maybe even uptick from here a bit if that trend holds, but based on his minor league power numbers this is pretty close to what we can expect from him going forward.  Because of his speed, high average, and fielding he doesn't need to hit for power to be valuable, but it is nice to see he has at least managed to hit a gap now and again.

And speaking of fielding, the dude is just breath-taking out there at times.  Remember this?


I mean.  Like whoa.  Now he's basically blocked from player center field because Denard Span's little tiny baby feelings will be hurt if they move him even though everybody who watches the Twins knows Revere is the better CF, but that hasn't stopped Revere from being the best corner outfielder with a noodle arm he can be.  His Ultimate Zone Rating in right field this year (no I don't know what this is or how to calculate it) is 5.7, which ranks him as the fourth best right fielder in the majors.  But since he missed some time when he was down on the farm and apparently UZR is a counting stat, when that's extrapolated out to 150 games he comes in as the #1 fielding right fielder in the game - and it's not even close.  For reference sake, Revere's UZR in CF last year (he's barely been out there this year so the data is wonky) was 8.5, 15.1 per 150 games.  Span's this year is 0.6 and 1.8 (in fairness last year Denard put up 9.0 and 17.6, so it's not like he's a slug out there or anything and they aren't killing themselves keeping him in center, it's just obvious that Revere has other-worldly range and should cover the 1/3 of the earth that water doesn't cover).  For their careers Revere is 7.5 and 12.8 in center while Span is 5.7 and 2.3.  So, despite Span putting up good numbers last year, that spot should be Revere's.  Holy shit was that a lot of nerd talk but how else do you talk about fielding other than, "Dude did you see that?"  Anyway.

And then there's Revere's speed on the bases.  According to the stat nerds, the risk/reward of a stolen base is worth taking the chance as long as you can steal at a 75% success rate.  Revere is at 78% in his career and 83% this year, with a career minor league success rate of 74%, so yes he should keep stealing and yes he's adding value on the base paths.  He's still mainly stealing off his pure speed with little technique, but his improvement from year-to-year hopefully he means he's refining his technique and will continue to get better with age rather than relying on pure speed, which will eventually drop off.  Running the bases is probably the most difficult thing to put into numbers, but naturally some nerd has done it and Revere rates at 8.3 on the scale where anything over 7.0 is considered an excellent baserunner.  So I guess there's that.

In conclusion, I love Ben Revere and he's rounding into the player Twins' fans hoped he'd be.  He's never going to develop more than 3-tools (speed, fielding, hitting for average with power and arm out of reach) but if he maximizes those three he's going to be the Twins' center fielder of the future and a quality lead-off hitter (and if he learns a little plate discipline he could even edge towards "great.")  In short, trade Denard Span.

Next one of these I'm going to do is on Trevor Plouffe who went yard again tonight.  I was going to do both these guys in this post but holy shit am I lazy.

How to rebuild the Twins

 Although the Twins are pretty much hamstrung and stuck with Joe Mauer for the foreseeable future, that doesn't mean there aren't some moves they could make to try to rebuild quickly - which they'll have to do in order to become contenders again before Mauer is completely out of his prime assuming he isn't already.  Obviously the #1 priority should be the draft, where the Twins have the 2nd overall pick and three picks in the top 40.  I'd like to see them concentrate on high upside, college pitchers who won't have to spend 4-5 years in the minors, and I'd specifically like to see them draft Mark Appel out of Stanford or Kevin Gausman out of LSU with that #2 overall, then look at more pitching with picks 32 and 42.  Pitching-Pitching-Pitching.

Beyond that, there are some trades that need to be made.  Namely:


1.  Justin Morneau.  Contenders like the Marlins (who just sent Gaby Sanchez to the minors), Dodgers (who have crappy no power James Loney), Rangers (great offense with wasteland at 1B) and Blue Jays (who have given up on Adam Lind) all could use the power Morneau would provide at first base and all have the money to handle his contract, if they aren't too wary of his health issues.  Health issues and the big contract might mean his selling price is down, but a package of 3-4 players centered around one high upside prospect at a position of need would be a good move.  The Marlins have 3B Matt Dominguez in AAA and although he's not a great hitter he's supposed to be a plus fielder and let's face it, the Twins are pretty much out of 3B options.  The Rangers are loaded, including the minors, and that might make them willing to move future stud starting pitcher Martin Perez, who would give the Twins their first ace type pitcher since Johan.  The Dodgers system is loaded with starting pitching (with 8 of their top 10 prospects starters), and the Jays have enough young pitching that they could part with a semi-highly regarded pitching prospect or three without hurting their long term outlook.  Morneau is a great trade chip as long as he keeps hitting with power, and he's not going to be around by the time this time turns itself around - they need to use him to get the turnaround started.

2.  Denard Span.  I like Span and he's a quality leadoff hitter, but Ben Revere is a very similar player with less power, less discipline, and better defense, and the former two can develop with more time - time he's not getting.  The Nationals have been sniffing after Span for a couple of years now and were even willing, or close to willing, to give up a real young, real good reliever in Drew Storen last year.  I don't know that you can get a blue-chipper like that anymore, but the Nats are contending and are sorely lacking in the leadoff hitter department so they'd still probably love to have Span.  With all their young pitching maybe you can get a MLB ready, middle of the rotation type guy who is still young like Ross Detwiler.  Given Ramos's injury they need a catcher, so maybe throw-in Doumit and get a prospect back or even whichever second basemen they hate less, Steve Lombardozzi or Danny Espinosa - either would be a better 2b of the future than anything the Twins have right now.

3.  Carl Pavano.  I'd say trade the entire rotation, but I can't really see a team parting with anything other than "cash considerations" for anybody other than Pavano or Liriano, and trading Frankie when his value is at an all time low is probably not the right idea, so that leaves Pavano.  He's not exciting, but he's consistent, a decent big league pitcher, and somebody (or multiple somebodies) are going to be looking for that around the trade deadline (not to mention he's affordable).  All four AL East contenders have worse than average rotations so as that divisional chase heats up they're all going to be trying to outbid each other for pitching help, so depending on who else would be on the block Pavano could be near the top of their wishlists (although I don't know if the Yankees would be willing to bring him back).  He'd bring back less of a return than either Morneau or Span, but getting a mid-tier prospect or even a youngish player who is blocked on one of those teams would be worth looking into.

4.  Matt Capps.  I really don't know if anybody is stupid enough to "pull a Twins" and give up something of value for a shitty closer who has racked up saves in his career more out of opportunity than talent, but if anybody is willing to trade anything they should jump on it.  Same with Glen Perkins or really any other pitcher on the entire team.

Pull all that off, and maybe you're looking at a future of:

C - Mauer
1B - Miguel Sano (I'm guessing this is where he eventually ends up) with Parmalee backing him up
2b - Lombardozzi or Espinosa with Plouffe backing up
3b - Dominguez/Travis Harrison
SS - Levi Michael/Brian Dozier
OF - Revere/Benson/Hicks/Rosario/Arcia/Kepler
 with a rotation starting with Kyle Gibson, Appel/Gausman, and Detwiler with Baker/Diamond/Walters (if either of them is real)/other draft pick pitchers/Wimmers/Hudson Boyd/Madison Boer/Adrian Salcedo also in the mix and Deolis Guerra your top bullpen arm.

I dunno.  And that's not even counting in any other prospects that come back in trade other than Dominguez and the Nats' guys, although even though Dominguez is a 3b which the team sorely needs I'd still take Martin Perez over him if they have that option.

And yeah, I realize I'm just playing fantasy baseball basically, but the team is in the shitter and going nowhere, and you have exactly four tradeable assets so trade them.  None of them are going to be around when this team gets close to contending again, so trade them now while they have value.  Anything.  Just do something this year rather than sitting around with their thumbs up their asses like they did last year.  This is what I'd try to do. 

Six Very Important Things from Last Night

 I was going to do a typical week in review post last night, but as I sat and stared at my computer screen I realized I got nothin'.  The Twins have sucked the life out of me and I just couldn't bring myself to type anything.  I started and deleted at least three times, and then was going to watch a shark movie and just didn't have the energy.  Thanks Twins!

They've killed my brain so much I can't even cook right anymore.  For last night's meal I looked around at what we had in the fridge and pantry and decided to make a Cuban chili.  I screwed it up every way imaginable.  Actually the first step, browning the ground beef with onions, red peppers, and garlic, went well, but from there it was right down hill.  I used way too much liquid in the base (beef broth + mexican beer) and made it way watery.  Then, after the first 45 minutes or so in the crock pot it seemed bland and rather than slowly adding spices to give it the flavor it needs I just threw a bunch of stuff in all at once and it ended up way too spicy.  Luckily I have Mrs. W around, who just scooped 90% of the broth out to make it more chili-y and also cut back on the spice.  I added some garlic salt and onion powder and WA-LA it ended up pretty good.  But it turns out I'm not quite the brilliant chef I like to think I am.  Well usually I am but not this time.  Except for when I helped fix it.  Anyway the Twins are stupid.
 


1. I quit watching after the third inning because it was 9-0.  It's now 18-1 in the fifth.  Eighteen.  To.  Fucking.  One.  Feels like the perfect end to a perfect season  This team sucks, Nick Blackburn throws the ball too easy to hit to even be a batting practice pitcher, and I'm never writing about the Twins again.  EVER.  Unless they start trading dudes, then I'll write about the sweet sweet prospects they pick up.  God I hate this so much.  This is just like that time I cut my own finger off.  [EDIT:  Final was 20-6.  L.  O.  L.]

2.  It looks like we'll have an NFL this year after all.  Football players and owners apparently realized that they all stand to make billions of dollars as long as there is a season and came to an agreement to go ahead and play some american football this year.  This sort of bums me out.

Not that I don't like football, because I really do, but because there is just so much about the NFL season that bugs me.  Particularly the fans.  And can you imagine that group of fans - the kind of guys who watch every minute of every preseason game, are convinced they're smarter than every coach, bitch and complain the one week there's no Sunday night football because of the World Series, and who ignore their family for 12 hours every Sunday so they can watch the six different TVs they have the overpriced Sunday Ticket hooked up to in a room they inevitably call their "man cave" (and seriously, can we stop putting man in front of words to make up new words?  It's not a man-cave, it's a den.  It's not a mancation, it's a vacation.  It's not man-scaping, it's shaving.  And so on).

You know the kind of guy I'm talking about.  And you can you imagine this guy without football?  It would be hilarious.  I imagine these guys would just start wandering around their neighborhood muttering to themselves and yelling at inanimate objects about getting into a cover 2 and rolling the safety over or start staging fake games in their yard using lawn gnomes.  But now that dream is over, just like the dream of getting to watch scab players this year.  Oh what could have been.  Where have you gone, Brian Cupito?

3.  Plenty of other things flying around the NFL rumor mill as well, including Terrell Pryor and Brett Favre rumors.   The Favre rumor is that he may sign with the Eagles to be insurance behind Michael Vick, which supposedly makes sense because he's had a long-time relationship with Andy Reid.  I would guess we can just ignore this because I really don't see him coming back after that pounding he took last year and I really don't see him volunteering for back-up duty.  Then again, since he has a need for attention that would rival any 3-year old you know we're not going to hear a definitive answer from him, so this is going to drag out.  Again.  And dominate the news to the point where you want to stab your ears out with a spoon.  Again.  Pete Rose II just needs to die or something so he'll actually go away.

As far as Pryor, the big cheating cheater, it turns out that due to a bunch of legal mumbo jumbo that I neither understand nor have actually read, he might not get to enter the NFL supplemental draft this year.  In that case I'd assume his options would be to play in the Arena League, CFL, XFL (if it still exists), or sling crack rock.  Which is good for him because then maybe he can make some money because once he hits the NFL he's going to absolutely suck.  Spergon Wynn style.  Seriously, the guy could hit the broad side of Sarah Rue (before she sadly got all skinny) with a pass if she was standing still and he's supposed to be an NFL QB?  Sure he can run, but that's all he can do.  All you need to know is that he is Ohio State's all-time leading rusher as a QB and it's well known that there has never been an all-time leading rushing QB from a school who has succeeded in the NFL.  Sorry Terrelle, you're doomed.  And you suck and are a cheater and a bad person. 

4.  This T-Wolves coaching search is rather perplexing.  I can't quite figure out what they're going for.  The latest is that they interviewed Larry Brown, who is 71 years old and I can't possibly figure out what the upside is, other than possible insurance money from when he dies (whether of a heart attack or Michael Beasley snapping and beating him with a dreadlock makes no difference).  The other guys, warts and all, at least have something that I get.  Don Nelson is super old but likes to play uptempo which is what Kahn wants and plays to Ricky Rubio's strength.  Bernie Bickerstaff is a total retread but, in theory, would have brought JB into play as the coach of the future (too late for this now).  Terry Porter would be an inexperienced, but young (for a coach) up and comer.  Rick Adelman is just a good coach.  I've never head of Mike Woodson.

But Larry Brown doesn't make sense for the Wolves and the job doesn't make sense for him either.  At 71, he'll be 75 by the time this is a possible playoff team, and Brown is notoriously difficult on young players and point guards.  Seeing as how the Wolves are exclusively young players and have basically hitched the hopes of the entire franchise on a rookie point guard this match makes me nervous.  Yeah, he's famous for turning losers into 8 seeds, but he's also a thousand years old and will probably end up shooting Beasley and/or Kahn by the all-star break.  But I guess they wouldn't be the Wolves if they did something that made sense.

5.  Ray Rice is going to destroy you.  Since NFL teams can do shit now the Ravens released a bunch of fairly notable players:  Derrick Mason, Todd Heap, and Willis McGahee.  Mason is 100 and Heap has sucked for two years but the McGahee release is important because it means whoever the coach of the Ravens is won't have to keep him happy by giving him the goalline carries.  The Bear once said Rice was overrated because he'd never be "a monster" but now McGahee is gone, he runs for a billion yards and catches enough balls to be the next generation of Thurman Thomas, and now he's going to get the goal line carries.  Can Ray Rice be a monster?  We're about to find out.  And I think this is going to go down just like he's Kobe Bryant and the league is that poor girl from that hotel.


6.  I was hoping to ignore the Twins for the rest of this post, but then there's this:  The Nationals are after Denard Span and the Twins are listening.  Frankly, this makes no sense.  I agree the Twins should start looking to move some dudes because they suck and this season is dead, and I also think it makes sense to move an outfielder/DH because that's what they have an abundance of.  But not Span.

First, he's under a reasonable contract.  He's signed through 2014 with a team option for '15 at a good cost ($3m next year, $4.75m the next, $6.5m in '14, $9m on the option) so you don't need to move him soon.  Unlike Kubel (free-agent to be) and Cuddyer (free-agent to be), or Jim Thome (1 more year but clearly not part of rebuilding).

Second, his skill set is something the Twins don't have anywhere else:  an actual lead-off hitter.  I love Ben Revere, I really do, but unless he starts walking more and finds a way to hit the ball farther than the average girl in a co-ed softball league once in a while (and yes that's AND, not OR) he's a nine hitter with a little excitement due to his speed.  I mean really, Kubel, Cuddy, and Delmon are such similar players if you move one you're not fundamentally changing your team's make-up, but Span is the only real lead-off hitter, maybe in the system.  If you still had Gomez and he was progressing (which, by the way, he still isn't) then trading Span is palatable, even though it still doesn't make sense.

Lastly, the Nationals are not a playoff team.  They aren't making trades for a playoff push, they're making trades to try to get better for the long run.  So why would a non-playoff team who needs to build for the future trade a guy to a different non-playoff team who needs to build for the future?  Because the Twins want Ian freaking Desmond to be their future shortstop?  The guy is absolutely terrible. Might as well have just kept Jason Bartlett for christ's sake.

Look, I get the Ramos trade for Capps.  It was stupid and I said so at the time, but I at least understand what they were doing, however misguided.  But trading Span, unless you are getting back Stephen Strasburg or Bryce Harper or Wilson Ramos, doesn't make sense financially, logically, chemistry-y, physically, lineup-y, racially, or sexually.  Leave it to the Twins and that rapey dickmitten Bill Smith.  Have fun watching Ian Desmond flail about like the next Nick Punto for the next four years.

Fuck this.  I'm moving.

Monday Musings - Who should the Twins trade?

I'll keep this short tonight since I kind of feel like crap, but I'm just lying on the coach watching the Twins game and the NBA game, so I might as well jot down a few thoughts as they occur in my brain.  First though:  you're telling me that Denard Span can golf a pitch up and over the right field wall but Mauer, Morneau, and even Kubel talk about how difficult it is to hit a ball out to right?  God I hate this team sometimes.  I swear 90% of the roster is a bunch of nancy little whiner girls.

-  I'm really excited for this Dallas/OKC game.  I'm probably going to spend more time watching them than the Twins, mainly because Pavano decided to throw batting practice again today.  It's so annoying when the pitchers decide to do that.  It's really too bad it seems to be a team mantra this season.

- Fairly crazy that Ed DeChellis is leaving Penn State to coach at Navy, no?  I mean, there are a million reasons to leave that job:  the program hasn't been good under him, he's basically losing his entire team from last year, and despite making the NCAA Tournament last year he wasn't offered an extension or given any assurance he'd remain the coach after what is guaranteed to be a terrible season.  So yes, I can understand leaving, but to go to Navy?  Not only a Patriot League team but a middle-of-the-road Patriot League team and a service academy?  That says an awful lot about the state of Penn State, and it's going to get worse before it gets better because based on the state of the program and the timing of this change they're going to have a hell of a time finding a good coach - or any coach, really.  Other than beating the Gophers in State College, I don't know that they'll win a Big Ten game, and will be lucky to get to 10 wins total on the year.

-  So let's assume the Twins don't make some kind of big comeback and are clearly out of it as we get to the trade deadline.  Who could/should they trade?

• Carl Pavano.  He may be very attractive to some teams because they'd get him for one and a half years - he's got another year after this one at a very affordable $8.5 million.  Not the top flight kind of arm that would put a team over the top, but he could help a team for a couple months down the stretch, and isn't part of the Twins' future.
• Kevin Slowey.  He may end up getting moved anyway because he's looking like the odd man out, but he would be an attractive pick-up for a team since he's under team control until 2014.  Of course, that may be the biggest reason the Twins won't trade him.
• Matt Capps.  He's making $7 million this year and definitely won't be resigned after this season, so he's almost a must trade once the Twins fall out of contention.  Someone desperate enough and foolish enough to be blinded by the "save" statistic to give up a mid-tier prospect (see last season.  Oof).
• Joe Nathan.  His contract next year is either for $12.5 million or the Twins can buy him out at $2.5, so he's likely going to get bought out and I'd expect the Twins to try to re-sign him at a cheaper number.  Why not move him, let some other team buy him out, then resign?  Question is, would anybody want him?
• Jason Kubel.  Lot's of decisions to be made in the outfield, and with Span entrenched and Revere and Benson the future there's probably only room for one, maybe two of Kubel, Cuddy, and Delmon in the future.  Kubel is the one I'd resign - he's a free agent after this year - but if his huge year so far continues he may price himself out of the Twins' range since they've sunk so much money into the two left-handed nancy boys.  Teams most valuable tradeable asset.
• Michael Cuddyer.  Also a free agent after this season, I have a sneaking feeling that the Twins don't want to let him go because of all the "little things" like playing multiple positions, leadership, and other undefinable gritty gamerish qualities.  Plus if Cuddy goes, who's going to make sure they get quoted in every single media piece on the team?
• Delmon Young.  The problem with trading Young is that I don't know how much value he actually has.  I'm curious as to what the perception around the league is, but personally I wouldn't trade much for him even if he still has another year under team control.  Personally I think if you find a buyer who is willing to give you anything you consider valuable, you do it.  And as I'm typing this he fouls a ball off his leg and reacts as if he's been shot.  Trade him.  Hate him.
• Jim Thome.  There's no reason for him to be on this team if they aren't going to compete for a playoff spot, either for the team (taking ABs away from younger players) or for him (wasting his time going no where).  Lots of contending teams could use a big left-handed bat on their bench, although I would be pretty shocked to see him go the National League so you're trade options are kind of limited.  Still, he could fetch a decent price.

So there's your list.  Not counting all the little minor chips and bullpen depth and crap.  Hopefully whoever it is they end up trading they at least get some decent players back.  Yep, that's what I have left to look forward to.  Hurray.

-  I've decided to become a huge Iowa State fan next basketball season.  200-1 to win the whole thing.  Get on it.

-  Finally, I leave you with this.  I can't decide if it's awesome or super duper awesome.

How bad are the freaking Twins?

Holy crap you guys, how bad are the Twins? I think we've gone beyond slow start at this point and have officially reached "gunning for the top pick in the lottery" status. I mean, what's been remotely promising so far? They can't hit or pitch, and they're making up for it by running the bases like a bunch of third-graders and fielding like absolute garbage, not to mention everybody who gets hurt needs an ambulance to carry them to the DL for half the season. Twins' baseball used to mean pitchers who threw strikes, fielders who made plays, and just enough offense supplemented by rarely making mistakes on either side of the ball. Now it means getting swept by the Royals.

Granted injuries have left them a bit short handed at times, but it's hard to just chalk up this many hurt players to bad-luck or the training staff - pretty sure it's a big ole contagious case of pussy-itis started by Morneau last year which has now affected half the roster. A week off for the flu? A couple of weeks for sore ribs and the flu, including pulling yourself from the starting lineup because "you can't get loose?" Several months (or more) off because of sore legs? It's baffling, but it fits their candy-soft mentality.

Worse, the players that do play can't hit. Jason Kubel's resurgence closer to his 2009 form after a sub-par 2010 is literally the only positive thing you can say about any position player:

Denard Span seems to have settled into a career role of "completely average lead-off who erases half of the good things he does by being really really fucking stupid running the bases." The problem is who could take over for him? Nobody on this team can handle center field (including Span), and the most likely candidates on the current roster are Jason Repko, a career back-up, and Rene Tosoni, who looks like a smaller, and possibly dumber, Lew Ford. I'm afraid we're stuck with Span until Revere is ready (and I wouldn't mind Denard in LF).

The middle infield is a complete mess, with someone too slow to play first playing at second and two subpar defensive second basemen alternating at shortstop. At least Cuddy can occasionally mash one - neither Tolbert or Casilla is anywhere near a major league quality hitter. (as mentioned here, combined they are the third-worst hitting middle infield since 1980). To make it even worse, Casilla might be the worst fielding shortstop in the league (and gives Span some competition for dumbest player), and the only the reason it isn't clearly him is because Tolbert gives him a run for his money.

The corner infielders should be ok, but Morneau can't seem to figure this whole "baseball" thing out. His power is basically completely gone along with both his patience and his aggressiveness, which sounds like it doesn't make sense but it does. Not only is he swinging at too many pitches (decreased patience) he's also swinging more like a slap-hitter and making contact more often, but poor contact (decreased aggressiveness). Basically he's a complete mess out there, and his drop of Tolbert's throw in that disastrous eight inning against the Royals over the weekend was one of the most bizarre things I've ever seen. I'm not worried about Valencia, at least. His numbers aren't great but if you did into the nerd stats (I'll spare you) he looks like he's just been unlucky and should be ok.

Catcher, geez, where to begin. Either Butera or Holm would make a fine back-up. Lots of teams carry a very good defensive catcher who can't really hit so no big deal. But when you hamstring yourself so severely by trading your two major-league ready back-ups in Jose Morales and Wilson Ramos, this is the situation you create when your dandy of a starter gets hurt for the one hundredth time. I get they thought they needed Capps and had to give Ramos to get him, but why then trade Morales? Mauer is a huge injury risk and they know this, so why guarantee having a guy back there who can't outhit most pitchers? Just a stupid, short-sighted move. Probably the most irritating thing of the entire season.

I don't even know where to being with the pitching. Basically all the starters have decided to stop throwing strikes because when they do throw strikes they're just getting crushed all over the yard. The only two starters with numbers that don't look like they should be an auto-trip to Rochester or the waiver wire are Duensing and Baker, and nerd stats tell us that Duensing is the only one who can remotely even hope to have keep it up.

We all know Blackburn sucks, and Pavano is Pavano and will giveth and taketh away, but this regression by Liriano from promising to disaster could very well be the logo for this season. He's been absolutely dreadful, and he's taken his always maddening approach of nibbling around the corners of the plate to a whole new level. Unfortunately for him, however, the scouting report is out and nobody's chasing. He's tripled his walks from last year, and with him being behind in basically every count to every batter they're pulverizing the ball when he finally puts it in the strike zone. He's already a third of the way to last year's walk total and half way to last year's home run total, all while allowing nearly two baserunners per inning. And sadly, there's no reason at all to think this is going to get better.

Then, if by some miracle, a starter does put together a nice outing there's nobody in the bullpen who bothers getting people out other than Glen Perkins, and if you believe he's suddenly become a good pitcher then go ahead and email me your home address so I can drive over and hit you in the face with a hammer. Joe Nathan is obviously broken, Jose Mijares has seemingly completely lost sight of the strike zone, and the rest of the guys (Hoey, Hughes, Burnett, Manship) are exactly as advertised - terrible and probably don't belong on a big-league roster. Hughes is particularly troubling because he sucked with the Royals yet the Twins jettisoned the promising Rob Delaney to make room for him, and he's suck even worse since joining the team.

That leaves Matt Capps, a competent closer, but the kind of player people who overrate the save stat love and people who love nerd stats underrate a bit. He's serviceable and can get outs but is always a candidate to get completely throttled because his stuff is underwhelming and if he isn't razor sharp with location he's very hittable. All that means he is a thoroughly mediocre bullpen arm, which also he means he's very clearly the Twins' top reliever.

Where does that all leave the team? A terrible hitting team that ranks last in the AL in runs scored, batting average, slugging percentage, and OPS (and second to last in OBP). A terrible pitching team that ranks dead last in the AL in ERA, opponents' batting average, and strikeouts. A terrible fielding team with a corner outfielder playing second, a couple of poor second basemen playing shortstop, a left fielder in center, and DHs playing corner outfield. A team with the worst run differential in baseball (outscored by 64 runs this year - more than 2 per game) and the worst record in the game.

Maybe things will turn around when (if) everyone gets back from injury. Maybe those who are struggling will get it figured out. I don't know. What I do know is that no team in history has every made the playoffs after a start this poor. I also know that I totally made that up because I don't actually know where to find that information, but it sounds like it's probably correct, doesn't it?

Seriously, this sucks. I don't know how to handle a summer without meaningful Twins baseball. I may just need to adopt a new team. I think I'm a Royal fan. They at least have hope for the future.

Who sucks, why, and what can we expect? (hitters edition)

There's a lot of things wrong with the Twins' offense so far, clearly, and since I'm prone to overreaction I'm basically in full on panic mode.  Ok, not really.  But the Twins have definitely sucked.  Perhaps we should look into this.

Let me warn you right here:  if you think discussions about swing rates and ground ball ratios are boring you should just check out now because we're going to dig into this on a player-by-player basis.  If K-rate, chase percentage, and BABIP are things you either don't understand, are scared of, or just plain hate you should leave at just go look at boobies.  Now for the rest of you poindexters who stuck around, let's get out our abaci and our protractors and hunker down in mom's basement and see what we see.  All stats as of April 12, pre-game time.  All nerd stats from fangraphs.



Joe Mauer (.233/.303/.267) - No real secret here, but his numbers are low because his Batting Average on Balls in Play (BABIP) is low, but that's because he's hitting almost exclusively ground balls so far this year.  His 80% ground ball rate is the highest in all of baseball, while his 4.0% line drive rate puts him at 209th out of 213 players who qualify for the batting title.

His swing rates, contact rates, and walk rates are generally around his career averages so it doesn't appear anything has changed as far as his approach, which is good, but there is one interesting anomaly.  Of the pitches thrown to him so far this year, 14.8% of them have been curveballs which is almost double what he's seen in his career, and that's the pitch he has the most trouble with according to the numbers (other than a cutter which you don't see as often).  Could just be a weird blip due to early season pitching match-ups, but could be the league has identified something.  It's probably meaningless, but it's worth watching.

Justin Morneau (.258/.303/.355) - Interesting to note that he's not hitting with power (his current ISO - which measures power without regard to batting average - would be bar far the lowest of his career) and he's also not striking out at all - just  once this year with one of the lowest K% in the entire league.  He's also not walking at anywhere near his usual pace.  This can be traced to the fact that he's making contact nearly every time he swings the bat - currently at 87.5% contact rate, a career high and 10% higher than his career average.

The real issue, though, is how often he's making contact when he chases - 85.0%, up from 68.1% last year.  He's seeing fewer pitches in the zone, and although he is chasing less than last year when he does chase he's making contact far more often, and unless you're Kirby Puckett, Yogi Berra, or Vlad Guerrero it's much harder to make solid contact when you're going after a bad pitch.  I haven't noticed if he's taking weaker swings at bad pitches simply to make contact, but it's something I'll be watching.  I suspect he just needs to get back to unleashing on every swing - his misses will go up, but so will his power and his walks.  That's what the Twins need.  Assuming his brain is working ok and will allow that to happen.

Delmon Young (.188/.212/.219) - Similar to Mauer he's not getting any hits because he's not hitting any line drives, just 8.0% so far.  Dissimilar to Mauer his balls in play aren't limited to grounders because he's hitting both fly balls and ground balls, but none of the GBs are getting through and none of the FBs are going anywhere, thus the lack of both hits and power.  Despite his swing and contact rates remaining relatively similar to last year he's actually striking out more and walking less, which I didn't think was possible.  Of note is that out of every five pitches Young sees only two of them are in the strike zone.  Pitchers know he'll chase so they aren't giving him anything to hit.  If his approach doesn't change it's going to be a tough year.

Denard Span (.286/.342/.400) - maybe the only player on the entire roster who hasn't been an offensive disappointment.  Worth noting is that is walk rate is just 7.9%, down from last year which was down from the year prior and down from the year prior.  Bizarrely, as the years have gone by he seems to be seeing more pitches in the strike zone, but swinging at fewer strikes and more balls with his swing % at balls outside the zone at a career high.  His numbers have the potential to get even better if he can recapture some of his plate patience he showed earlier in his career because the balls he does hit he's hitting much better and much harder.  Perhaps that's what he needs to break through the "slightly above average lead-off hitter" he's been for his career.  Also needed:  less getting picked off.

Danny Valencia (.194/.265/.290) -  Nothing in Valencia's numbers suggests any kind of regression from last year.  His swing and contact rates are similar and if anything he's showing improved plate patience.  His line drive, ground ball, and fly ball rates are also all right where you'd expect.  The only big difference is a huge drop in BABIP from .345 last year to .200 this year.  While .345 means he was a little bit lucky last year, the .200 (with the rest of the numbers basically the same) means he's been tremendously unlucky this year.  No worries about Valencia, he's going to be fine. 

Jason Kubel (.300/.323/.367) -  The .300 average looks nice but there are some pretty big red flags here.  First, his BABIP is .391 even though his line drive rate is currently at a career low mark of 17.4% - that's a whole lot of luck coming into play.  Second, the complete lack of power is disturbing, as are the zero walks.

Two things Kubel has always been able to bring to the table, even when struggling, are his power and his plate patience and now they're both gone?  His double tonight is just his third this year and he's still looking for that first home run.  Based on his career averages he should have triple the XBH by now.  And the walks?  He's been solidly right at a 10% or so walk rate his whole career, and now nothing?  He's being extra aggressive for some reason this year with rises in his swing rates at both balls in the zone and out of it and it's translating into no walks.  I don't know why he's suddenly trying to become Delmon Young, but this shit better stop or I'm burning my Kubel shirt.  Don't change who you are when it's (at least sort of) working.

Mike Cuddyer (.107/.194/.107) -  He's 3-3 tonight with three singles so that will help the average number at least.  That's not all that concerning because with a BABIP of just .136 you know his average is going to come up significantly, but I'm not so sure what's going on with the slap hitting nancy routine.  His contact rates are mostly similar, so it's not that he's changed his approach, but for some reason he's swinging about 7% less on balls in the strike zone, and making contact about 2% less that usual.  It's almost as if while Kubel is getting more aggressive and getting away from his strength, Cuddyer is trying to be more patient which goes away from his.

Similar to Mauer, he's seen a huge increase in curve balls so far this year (from 8.2% career average to 16.2% this year) which leads me to believe this whole curve ball thing is nothing more than statistical noise due to seeing a higher percentage than average of curve ball pitchers so far, but it's worth noting that, again similar to Mauer, Cuddy always struggles against curves, so maybe things turn around when pitch mixes return to more standard levels.

The one impressive thing about his season is no matter how shitty it is, Cuddy has managed to keep his streak of being quoted in every single Twins article ever since he arrived in the big leagues intact.  Seriously, every article.  Guy's a bigger media whore than Chuck Sheen.

Jim Thome (.167/.250/.444) -  It doesn't really matter to me what the numbers would say about Thome, I'm not going to worry about him unless I start seeing signs of aging, like not being able to catch up to a fastball or not being able to sustain an erection.  At this point his 9.1% line drive rate and 63.5% fly ball rate are both really awful numbers and are leading to his piss poor BABIP of .200.  He's not punishing fast balls the way he usually does, but really right now he's not punishing anything (except that pitch from poor Jerry Blevins) so we really don't have enough data.  Kept a sharp eye on which pitches Thome is hitting hard to know what to expect the rest of the year, like the 80 mph change he just hit off Tim Collins for a single, that's the kind of pitch an old man who can't catch up to a fastball will crush.  Not saying that's him, but it's something to watch.

Alexi Casilla (.167/.211/.278) -  His BABIP is just .200, which would make you think his performance is bound to get better just due to luck, but he doesn't walk (ever), he has no power (ever), and, get ready for this one.....he hasn't hit a single line drive all year.  Basically all he does is bound the ball into the ground and hope to god he finds a hole (not dissimilar to Chuck Sheen) or hits the ball so shittily he can use his alleged speed to get on base.  I guess.  I don't know.  I don't even get this guy.  I think I'd rather have Punto back.  Or Denny Hocking.  Or Jeff Reboulet.  At least he had a mustache.  I'm tired and drunk.


And that's the end. I think what we can really take out of this is that this team sucks.  Or, this team has seen a lot of curveballs and they can't hit them.  Of the starters they've faced Ivan Nova, A.J. Burnett, Gio Gonzalez, Brett Anderson, and Brandon McCarthy are all big curve guys, with Burnett, Gonzalez, and McCarthy among the league leaders in % of pitches thrown that are curves.  I'm not sure what that means.  Probably something.

Talkin' Twins

With baseball camps starting to open up and baseball preview magazines hitting the store shelves I can't help but to have my thoughts turn to baseball (and the fact that the Gophers are driving me crazy isn't helping).  Here are my quick thoughts (ok, probably not quick) on the team this season, position-by-position:

CATCHER:  Joe Mauer is going to be who Joe Mauer be, which means he'll probably hit around .330 and OBP over .400 - both outstanding numbers for a catcher.  The real question is if he has power more like in 2009, or is the 2010 version the real one.  Personally, I think 2009 was a bit of a fluke, but I think he has more power than we saw in 2010, although it's harder to see thanks to the power reducing abilities in Target Field.  I would put his HR total OVER/UNDER at 10.5, but as long as he keeps banging out those doubles his other numbers make him one of the most valuable players in the game.  And are we really going with Drew Butera at back-up catcher again?  Seeing as how he's the only other catcher on the 40-man roster and both of the other intriguing options (Morales, Ramos) were shipped off I guess so.  I mean, I like the guy, he's excellent defensively and his name is really fun to say, but you could DH for him and let the pitcher bat instead and at worst that's a lateral move.

CORNER INFIELD:  Was it really just two seasons ago Justin Morneau played in 163 games and finished second in the MVP balloting? It seems amazing given how fragile he's been and missing half a season after getting bumped in the head is a huge red flag.  It's hard to believe it's even possible he won't be ready to opening day, but then again I said the same thing about last August, September, and October.  Plus, we already know from Corey Koskie that the only reason somebody born in Canada plays baseball instead of hockey is because they can't take a hit, so temper your expectations, I've got a bad feeling about this.

As far as third base goes I liked what I saw out of Danny Valencia last year, but I didn't quite see enough to be ready to hand the job over to him for the next five years.  I'm also not sure what other options they have because Matt Tolbert should never, ever start a game and the only other 3B on the 40-man roster is Luke Hughes, but it's starting to look less and less likely that he's the guy.  I do like Valencia, and his second half numbers were still good and probably more what we're likely to see this year.  If the power he showed in September carries over, the Twins will likely have a very good defensive third baseman who hits .280/.320/.460.  Solid, but not spectacular.  Like Reese Witherspoon or Chipotle.

MIDDLE INFIELD:   I can't wait to hear Dick and Bert butcher Tsuyoshi Nishioka's name over and over again.  I guarantee that they come up with a nickname within a week of the season opener, probably something as simple as Yoshi, which is fine as long as it's not the next Kaz Matsui, which is what he's known as around my house.  Maybe I've just been beaten down by scrappy, light-hitting middle infielders with little to no plate discipline for so long that I have the same confidence in him that Jerry's mechanic has in that gasket.

And speaking of light hitting middle infielders, Alexi Casilla will get another chance to start, because as Lindsay Lohan and Dean Koontz have proven if you just keep giving second and third chances things will eventually work out.  Seriously, how is Dean Koontz on the best-sellers list all the time?  I read about 10 of his books just thinking I must have grabbed his bad ones and kept waiting to read a good one and I never found one.  Servants of Twilight was decent, but everything else is just total crap you'd have to have a brain injury or the intelligence of a lamp to enjoy.  Family Guy is mostly stupid and written for cretins, but I laughed my ass off during and episode right after Stephen King got hit by a car when Peter hit somebody with his car and goes "was that Stephen King?" and Lois says "No, it was Dean Koontz" and Peter puts the car in reverse and runs him over again.  Suck it, Koontzy.   

OUTFIELD:  Here we go again.  A bunch of mediocre to kind of good bats packaged along with terrible terrible terrible defense.  Honestly, with Young, Span, and Kubel out there if there was a contest between those three and Carlos Gomez all by himself who do you think would catch more fly balls?

Defense aside, Span is the biggest concern and he really needs to be more like his 2009 self than last year's version.  His walk rate dipped last year from 12.2% and 10.5% in 2008 and 2009 down to 8.5% last year and after walking 17 times in April he walked just 16 times in May & June combined and 17 times in September & October combined.  Basically he stopped walking and starting flying out too much.  He is absolutely a key to this team and needs to be their table-setter.

He also needs to find a way to get better defensively, because he needs to cover for the three corner guys:  Jason Kubel, Delmon Young, and Michael Cuddyer.  Young finally put up an offensive year his potential said was there, and although it feels like the kind of thing you can't quite trust, in fact he put up the best year of his career in the same year where his BABIP was at his career low.  Yes, low.  Meaning with a little more luck he could have had even better numbers.  I actually anticipate his power going down a bit, because I think that surge we saw was a little more fluky than anything else, but I can easily see him hitting .320 or so over the course of the year with 40 or so doubles and 15 homers.  That's a very, very good year.  If he ever figures out some plate discipline he would have a chance at being truly dangerous.

Kubel I don't know about anymore.  He's one of the best on the team when it comes to plate discipline, but regressed quite a bit from his career year in 2009.  A lot of that can be attributed to a BABIP of just .280, 20 points lower than his career mark, and he should be able to bounce back to something closer to that 2009 version than last year's, but the real problem is that Kubes continues to be absolutely dreadful against lefties and at this point I don't think you can wait for him to snap out of it.  If he's in the lineup even once against a left-handed pitcher it's one time too many.

Finally, Cuddy will be returning to the outfield, assuming Canada-boy gets himself back into play, and that's not exactly a good thing.  I know he's a great teammate and his ability and willingness to play any position where he's needed is an excellent quality to have, and he's got a great arm.  He is also nearly as slow as Young or Kubel and still refuses to lay off the outside slider in the dirt with two strikes despite the fact that every single pitcher throws it at him every single time he has two strikes on him.  Honest to god, how do people watch Mark Reynolds day-in and day-out?  Cuddyer doesn't strike out nearly as often as Reynolds, but he just makes me so angry.  I'm not even especially anti-strikeout, even if they are fascist, but he just looks so weak and over-matched when he does it.  At least Adam Dunn has the decency to swing hard when he misses a ball by 2 feet.

DH/BENCH:  Jim Thome should basically have the DH locked down.  I'd say the Twins would be better off sitting him against lefties, but what's your other option?  I already mentioned Butera and Tolbert, neither of whom could get a hit even if they were married to Whitney Houston.  And, assuming they carry 11 pitchers, they only other player on the bench will be Jason Repko.  I secretly love Repko and have even used his name as a password on an account for something or other, but sometimes reality sets in and I remember he OPSed just .671 last year, a number basically identical to Tolbert, even if Repko seems like 10x the hitter Tolby is.  So basically this is a pretty damn shallow bench. 

STARTERS:  Pretty underwhelming here, yeah?  I hate that they're just rolling with the same group, although I can't really come up with any kind of master plan to make it any better, but lame, right?  Baker is a #3/#4 on most teams, Slowey is a #4, Pavano - although I'm glad to have him back - is a #3, and Blackburn should be in AAA.  We still don't know how good Duensing can be, but I think his absolute upside is a #3, which leaves Liriano for the excitement factor, and the Twins seem to be doing everything they can to try to make sure he isn't in their long term plans, which is ludicrous considering his 3.62 ERA last year was basically a worst case scenario based looking at his other stats - Aaron Gleeman breaks it all down better than I ever could here.  Is it a good enough rotation to win the Central even though it's not as good as Chicago's group?  Yes.  Good enough to win the World Series?  Well, I'll just wait for Kyle Gibson while I ponder that one.  But no.

CLOSER:  I'd imagine that Matt Capps will start the year as the closer with Joe Nathan getting eased in, but if Nathan looks close to form he'll slide back into his old job.  That's as it should be since Nathan can be unhittable at times and has stuff Cappsy can only dream about.  And a full season of Nathan, regular season only I mean, makes me feel pretty good.  A full season of Capps makes me feel sweaty and nervous, like a fat girl before her first aerobics class.  Don't you fear he's got a little bit of Bobby Jenks in him?  Like, he's just a half mph or half inch or a little bit worse luck away from a 6.00 ERA?  To put it another way, if Nathan is even 90% back from injury his downside is basically Cappsy's upside.

BULLPEN:  As much as I don't love Capps as a closer, I think he's a good option as a set-up guy and that's good because if the starters are underwhelming the bullpen is just a picture of guy with a thought balloon and in that balloon is a question mark.  Basically other than Capps and Jose Mijares we have one gigantic guessing game, with the biggest question being, "Why the holy hell did they essentially get rid of Rob Delaney in order to grab Dusty Mother Effing Hughes, somebody so bad at pitching a baseball that the KC Royals didn't even want him?"  And who is Scott Diamond and why, by taking him in the Rule 5 draft, is he good enough to warrant a guaranteed spot on the major league active roster?  Jim Hoey is getting a lot of play as a guy who could be a big-time setup guy, but he hasn't pitched in the majors since 2007 and owns a career ERA over 8.  What about Neshek in year 2 since his elbow fell off?  Is Glen Perkins head on straight and is his stuff good enough to become a reliable bullpen option?  Can Anthony Slama's mustache get anybody out, or is he your classic AAAA type player?  Is Alex Burnett a mop-up/long relief type who won't embarrass you or something more?  Are Jeff Manship and Anthony Swarzak future starters, relievers, or ushers?  Why did Eric Hacker get a major league contract?

I mean, look at this.  That's what, 9 possible guys for 3-4 spots and doesn't even take into account that they have 6 non-Gibson starters for five spots.  I guess the one big positive is that they do have a lot of options, so maybe that increases the odds that enough of them work out to make this a viable, quality bullpen.  Sort of like increasing your chances of winning the Powerball by buying two tickets instead of one.

OVERALL OUTLOOK:  I don't know, man, it seems like everywhere I look the Twins are getting picked to win the central again, but I don't know.  It feels to me like the White Sox and Tigers did more this offseason and it wouldn't take much to push either of those teams out ahead of the Twins.  I haven't really broken down the rosters to really get a clear view, but right now it feels like the downside is a rough year and third place division finish, while the upside is a narrow division win and a quick exit from the playoffs.  It's hard to get excited about that.  Again.

But you know what?  I'll be watching.  Damn near every game.  And I'll be living and dying on damn near every pitch.  And when I'm fishing up at the cabin the radio will be tuned to the game every damn night.  Because it's the Twins, it's baseball, and I couldn't shake it if I tried.

Win Twins: American League Division Series Preview

Even though we all know the New York Yankees are going to sweep since they completely own the Minnesota Twins in every way, Kubel homer off Rivera aside, I feel like I should toss up some kind of preview of some kind since I like to pretend I'm a Twins writer. So how about we take a look, position by position, so we can truly get a read on how badly teh Yanks are going to own this sucker.

CATCHER: Joe Mauer (.327/.402/.469 - 9 HRs) vs. Jorge Posada (.248/.357/.454).  Mauer is going to win this battle against any playoff catcher this year, although there's somebody in San Fran who might make a pretty good argument, but his hitting - even with his power disappearing - combined with his defense make him easily the winner in this argument.  Posada is still an ageless wonder but his skills are starting to diminish, even though - and you're going to hear this a lot with NYY - he's still patient and draws a lot of walks and can still hit for power.  His arm is basically shot (he only threw out 16% of base-stealers this year) but that won't really matter since the Twins can't/don't really run.  ADVANTAGE:  Twins

FIRST BASE:  Michael Cuddyer (.271/.336/.417 - 14 HRs) vs. Mark Texeira (.256/.365/.481 - 33 HRs).  This year was an off year for Tex (worst avg, obp, and slugging since he was a rook), but he still blows what the Twins have to offer completely out of the water.  The bad Cuddy showed up this year, which is unfortunate because this is when they could use him most, what with their best player on the shelf the second half of the year.  Hopefully he can recapture some of that 2006/2009 magic, because the Twins are going to need all the big bats they can get.  Plus, Texeira is a 3-time gold glover, and although it's commendable that Cuddy is willing to play wherever they need him he's a god awful 1B-man.  ADVANTAGE:  Yankees 

SECOND BASE:  Orlando Hudson (.268/.338/.372 - 10 SBs) vs. Robinson Cano (.319/.381/.534 - 29 HRs).  Look at those numbers.  Cano is just ridiculous.  Do you realize that slugging percentage of Cano's is the second-highest of any player in this series, behind on Jim Thome?  And we know what Thome has done, but Cano isn't that far behind.  And he plays frickin' second base!  I don't mind Hudson, despite the fact that he's hit .171 since September 8th, but he's far, far, far outclassed here.  Cano is basically Joe Mauer with power, while O-Hud is, well, Alexi Casilla with a a better reputation.  ADVANTAGE:  Yankees

THIRD BASE:  Danny Valencia (.311/.351/.448 - 7 HRs) vs. Alex Rodriguez (.270/.341/.506 - 30 HRs).  Similar to Texeira, A-Rod had one of the worst years of his entire career but still blows the Twins' offering away.  Not as badly as Tex, thanks to Valencia's high average, good defense, and the fact that he seems to be getting better, but Rodiguez is still so far beyond Dannyboy that, much like Dr. Dre said to his rival rappers, "You couldn't see me with binoculars."  Oh, and if you want to make the argument right now that A-Rod chokes in the playoffs do me a favor:  shut down the internet window you are viewing this blog on and never, ever, ever come back here again because you are a retard.  Also, and this has nothing to do with anything right now except that I'm watching Zombieland, I really dig Emma Stone.  ADVANTAGE:  Yankees

SHORTSTOP:  J.J. Hardy (.268/.320/.394 - 6 HRs) vs. Derek Jeter (.270/.340/.370 - 18 SBs).  In what is quickly becoming a common theme, Jeter is having the worst year of his career, but this one is at least close.  In actually, Hardy out OPSes Jeter, even though it's like comparing Alexi Casilla to Matt Tolbert, thanks to his higher slugging, and according to every defensive metric I looked it, which is everything fangraphs has, Hardy is a better fielder.  So we're going to have to give this one to Minnesota.  Which doesn't feel right.  And not because it's Captain Intensity and Sportsmanship, because he's been overrated for years, but because it's Hardy and he kind of sucks.  Sorry ladies.  ADVANTAGE:  Twins

LEFT FIELD:  Delmon Young (.298/.333/.493 - 21 HRs) vs. Brett Gardner (.277/.383/.379 - 47 SBs).  Tough call, because these guys couldn't be more different.  Young is the lumbering stick-man, finally coming into his own and showing some of his promise while at every pitch within a 4-mile radius of home plate.  Gardner is the fleet of foot slap-hitter who is probably the best left-fielder in baseball and is very selective at the plate.  It is close, but Young's extra power can't make up for Gardner's non-hitting skills.  And I don't mean like, his ability to cook a nice steak on the grill (top notch from what I hear.  He uses a little bit of garlic butter is the rumor), I mean the speed and fielding thing.   ADVANTAGE:  Yankees

CENTER FIELD:   Denard Span (.264/.331/.348 - 26 SBs, 10 3Bs) vs. Curtis Granderson (.247/.324/.468 - 24 HRs).  Sigh.  Remember when Span looked like he was going to become your prototypical leadoff hitter?  Like a poor man's Tim Raines with less steals?  Well now he's more like a poor man's Vince Coleman with way, way less steals (NOTE:  Coleman was actually a terrible hitter, which you probably don't remember because you were blinded by his blindingly blinding speed.  Blind.)  Granderson has been just barely good this year, but he destroys the new, slower Vince Coleman.  Quick, guess how many walks Spoleman has had since August 24th:  It's 12.  Jason Repko has nine in that same time frame, and he plays like every 8th day.  In short, Denard Span is a huge disappointment and I hope he gets the mumps.  ADVANTAGE:  Yankees

RIGHT FIELD:  Jason Kubel (.249/.323/.427 - 21 HRs) vs. Nick Swisher (.288/.359/.511 - 29 HRs).  Both of these guys would be better off playing softball so don't expect any great fielding antics (unless you count diving and catching a ball a normal fielder would get to standing up as a great fielding play), but Swisher is merely bad while my boy Kubes is basically a butcher of historic proportions.  And as far as hitting goes, Kubel is Kubel this year, while Swisher is what Kubel was last year.  No contest.  ADVANTAGE:  Yankees

DESIGNATED HITTER:  Jim Thome (.283/.412/.627 - 25 HRs) vs. Lance Berkman (.248/.368/.413).  Thank god Thome is involved here, because he'd win a comparison against anyone.  Berkman?  Please.  A-Rod?  Not this year.  Babe Ruth?  Sorry fatty.  Zeus?  No mythical beings allowed.  Jesus?  I said no mythical beings allowed.  So Berkman and his big giant chin have no chance.  ADVANTAGE:  Twins

STARTER #1/#5:   Francisco Liriano (14-10, 3.62 ERA, 1.26 WHIP) vs. CC Sabathia (21-7, 3.18 ERA, 1.19 WHIP).  This is an incredibly even matchup, especially because when you start looking at the nerd stats Liriano actually comes out pretty far ahead thanks to his great HR/9 mark and because his walk and strikeout numbers are way better than Sabathia's.  Just looking at the "mainstream" stats you'd pick Sabathia, but go a bit deeper and it's pretty obvious Liriano has actually been the better pitcher this year, and it's actually not all that close.  ADVANTAGE:  Twins

STARTER #2:  Carl Pavano (17-11, 3.75 ERA, 1.19 WHIP) vs. Andy Pettitte (11-3, 3.28 ERA, 1.27 WHIP).  This is a pretty even matchup, if you ignore the fact that the Twins seemingly couldn't hit Pettitte if he tossed the ball underhand.  A little wrinkle here is that Pettite is just getting back from injury, having pitched just three times since mid-July, and topped out at just 88 pitches in those three starts since returning.  Pavano has been very good this year, even though he's tapered off a bit since that streak of 18 consecutive complete games or whatever it was, and with his propensity to throw strikes the patient approach of the Yankees shouldn't bother him, and may even play in his favor.  ADVANTAGE:  Twins

STARTER #3:  Brian Duensing (10-3, 2.62 ERA, 1.20 WHIP) vs. Phil Hughes (18-8, 4.19 ERA, 1.25 WHIP).  One thing I really love about this matchup is that since the all-star break Hughes has been absolutely awful, with an ERA near 5 despite a fluky low BABIP of .262 and less than a 2-1 KK/BB ratio.  That means he's been simply dreadful.  And we know, outside of his last few starts, that Duensing has been brilliant this year, so all signs point to a Twinkie advantage.  Except of course, that the last time he pitched at Yankee Stadium in the playoffs he got shelled.  Still.....ADVANTAGE:  Twins

STARTER #4:  Nick Blackburn (10-12, 5.42 ERA, 1.45 WHIP) vs. A.J. Burnett (10-15, 5.26 ERA, 1.51 WHIP).  I know Blackburn has been pitching must better since his trip to AAA, and I know Burnett is mostly a mess, but I can't possibly give the advantage to the Twins here.  Blackburn doesn't have great stuff so he must rely on location so much that his margin for error is razor-thin, and when he's even slightly off he's gotten roasted by the likes of Baltimore, Oakland, and Kansas City - can you imagine what the Yankees will do to him if he's not 100% locked in?  It's not like Burnett has been great lately, since June 4th his ERA is 6.46, and I know Blackburn has come up in the clutch in the past, but I just can't do it.  Plus Sabathia is almost certainly going to be the one pitching this game.  ADVANTAGE:  Yankees

[NOTE:  New York hasn't announced their pitching lineup, so this is all just conjecture.  Good chance Sabathia comes back to pitch game #4 (where he'd obviously have a huge advantage over Blackburn), leaving Pettitte vs. Liriano for game 5 if it gets that far.]

CLOSER:  Matt Capps (42/48 saves, 2.47 ERA, 1.26 WHIP) vs. Mariano Rivera (33/38 saves, 1.80 ERA, 0.83 WHIP).  Father fucking time aka the Sandman just keeps rolling along, and you can throw out that blown save to the Twins earlier because those 2 ERs he allowed accounted for 33% of the ERs he allowed through August.  Of course, he's been super-mortal here in September, with an ERA of 7.38 and 3 blown saves in the month, but I'm not exactly ready to call him done just yet.  Plus, the best team Capps has ever played on before this year was a 68-win Pirate team, so not only has he never pitched in the playoffs, but he's really never pitched in a meaningful game.  Seriously, how do you feel when you think about Capps coming in to Yankee Stadium in the bottom of the ninth with the Twins up 3-2? Nauseous, at best.  ADVANTAGE:  Yankees

BULLPEN:   Crain/Fuentes/Guerrier/Mijaries/Rauch vs. Wood/Chamberlain/Robertson/Gaudin/Logan.  I haven't seen the Yankees postseason roster, so I'm not sure if all those guys will be on there, but the main three - Wood, Chamberlain, and Robertson - certainly will be.  Wood has basically been unhittable since he came over from Cleveland, but Chamberlain hasn't been great this year (although he still strikes out a ton of guys and can be untouchable when he's on) and Robertson is definitely hittable.  One thing that should help the Twins out is that the only lefty in the pen is Boone Logan, and although he's been good this year and particularly tough on lefties, he's been awful in his career overall and hasn't ever pitched in the postseason - could be where the Twins can take advantage.  Overall, despite the struggles in the last couple of weeks, I like the Twins' group better.  Although every single one of them scares me to death.  ADVANTAGE:  Twins 

Total it all up and the Twins look good on the mound, with the Yankees holding an advantage at the plate and win the overall breakdown by the slimmest of  margins at 8-7.  Of course, games aren't played with words on crappy, third-rate blogs, they're played between the lines where anything can happen.  Because this is your state, this is your team, and this is Twins Territory!

Yanks in 4.

But not if Wonderbaby^TM has anything to say about it.






If you're looking for another take, here's Reusse's breakdown using a similar method, but the results are very, very different and a lot more stupider.