I just finally got the baby to sleep (for how long who knows, stay tuned) but I'm just now able to put some thoughts down on virtual paper here for your game 1 Yankees v. Twins matchup. We're in the bottom of the second, and here is what I have to say so far:
- I really hate sac bunting in the first, especially with the second batter of the game. If the pitcher just doesn't have it early, you're giving him a free out. Plus, there's that whole thing about how sac bunts don't really help you very often, which has been statistically proven.
- Liriano pees his pants when Marcus Thames is up.
- Sabathia intentionally throwing at Thome because of that one time when they played together in Cleveland and Thome didn't invite him to a BBQ party at his house.
- If Cuddy was saving it for the playoffs this year, I'm ok with that. Although he owes us about 10 more based on his play all season.
- So that's where we stand. 2-0 Twins, Liriano looking mostly good. Sabathia just struck out Valencia who did an awfully good impression of someone who has never seen a slider before. CC looks good, I have a hunch he's on tonight, but after intentionally beaning Thome because he slept with his wife he made his one mistake to Cuddy and luckily he was able to take advantage, so Liriano needs to keep this up and keep the Twins ahead because I don't think they're going to get much more.
- Tonight's drink of choice: Three Philosophers beer. To be followed by Coors Light.
- Double for Hardy, which proves that all of you who questioned me when I said the Twins had the advantage at shortstop can now suck it.
- Slower Vince Coleman swings like a girl - again. Inning over.
- So I had the most fantastically interesting dinner last night. We went to Vincent with work, the kind of thing I desperately miss with my new job, since if you pay way to much attention here you know I used to get fancy dinners all the time (along with a lot of fun travel) that I don't anymore, so I was really looking forward to it, and I ended up trying several things I'd never had.
We opened with appetizers both comforting (baked camembert) and exotic (escargot), and I did end up trying the snails, which was my first time ever. They basically drenched them in a garlic butter sauce (to mask the taste) and serve them boiling hot (to mask the texture) which leads to me to ask why exactly people eat them at all, but I tried them and other than being hot they were fine. Of course, I mostly tasted garlic butter, which I think was the point. Back to the game, more about the meal later.
- Leadoff walk to Gardner. This, frankly, sucks, and Liriano is doing that thing where he looks scard to throw a strike, nibbles nibbles nibbles, and walks a bunch of guys. At least Jeter's up, this is a double play waiting to happen.
- OMG throw a strike asshole.
- Base hit Jeter. First and second nobody out and I want to cry. That's the second 0-2 count he's had where he's allowed the runner to reach base. I can't help but feel like we've got the bad Liriano tonight.
- Two fly outs and a K of A-Rod that left him looking absolutely silly. So maybe we have the good Liriano, although I'm starting to suspect they are one in the same.
- TNT just let us know Sabathia and Orlando Hudson are good friends dating back to 1999 when they were teammates in the Sally League. I wonder what color skirts they wore and who baited the hook when the went fishing. Base knock, Hudson.
- Mauer grounds out with Hudson running and slides into first like an idiot (but is out), but noone of that matters because O-Hud ends up taking third like Jake Taylor on a bunt. Brilliant play. I guess Hudson skirt is the color of rocket fuel and veteran savvy. And he just scored on a wild pitch, 3-0 Twins. I'm starting to feel good and I hate it.
- Ron Darling, one of our announcers tonight, "Along with throwing, giving up passed balls has been a big weakness of Posada this year." So what, exactly, is left? I know. I bet he always invites Sabathia to the BBQs at his house.
- Favorite text so far tonight, courtesy of Snacks, "I will commit murder at a twins game someday due to bathroom etiquette rules."
- Liriano gets Thames out. Everything is coming up Millhouse.
- Great inning for Liriano, which brings me back to my great meal. The next course I had was a poached eggs with a salted cod puree, bell peppers, and little slices of some kind of sausage. I'm not usually an egg fan, at all, but the other option for this course was a pureed soup of root vegetables, and I do not like pureed soups, so I went with this. The accompaniments were good enough to offset my usual distaste for egg, and I thought it was quite good, although not very exciting. More coming up.
- Here's an idea - the Twins sign Carl Crawford for next year, trade Kubel or Delmon for a pitcher, and outright cut Cuddyer. Who's in?
- Next course I was really tempted to go with the white fish, because there's nothing more I like than a really well cooked piece of fish (other than maybe properly cooked, rock-salted prime rib with a well seasoned au jus) but I just couldn't bring myself to pass on the wild boar because, really, when am I going to have wild boar again? It was pretty good, stringy to be sure and the closest taste I can come up with to it would be beef jerky (which is not remotely an insult) but overall quite good and I'm glad I had it. Also came with brussel sprouts which I had also never tasted, and these were pretty outstanding. I don't know if they were just good plain or if it was the squash puree mixed with them, but I was impressed.
- 1-2-3 for Liriano including a couple of strikeouts and he's back to looking sharp. I'm really glad I didn't jump in my car, drive to Target Field, hop the fence, run on to the field and tackle and/or choke Liriano whilst yelling "They can't hit you asshole!" Not that I was contemplating it. Barely even warmed up the car.
- Oh, and FYI - I'm chatting with a Yankee fan as I watch, and if he's any representation of that team they are really, really down on this year's squad and don't feel remotely confident. As in, win this first game and the fans, if not the team, will curl up and die faster than a snail in a boiling vat of garlic butter. My biggest concern is who pitches the 8th. That inning is going to make or break this game.
- Easy inning for Sabathia, and through five these are a couple of good pitching performances, although nothing compared to Halladay's no-hitter earlier today. Which, incidentally, is what the announcers for this game just talked about for that entire half-inning. So, to recap, three idiots who get paid handsomely to do a job I could do much better, just spent an entire inning talking about a game that was already over. Brilliant. And I know everybody thinks they could be a better announcer than the actual announcers, and most of you are wrong, but I actually could be better. I'd be the next Jack Buck (NOT Joe) crossed with a little Vin Scully and a dash of Keith Olbermann back when he was good combined with Brad Pitt's looks and Brad Pitt's body.
- Texeira double here in the top 6 with one out. It's still 3-0, and now I'm terrified Liriano is going to walk A-Rod because he's scared to set up the 3-run, game tying HR. Seriously, if that happens this is a sweep. No way the Twins could survive having the momentum yanked out from under them like that.
- Indeed, he walks A-Rod (although I'm pretty certain that ball four was a strike). Game all set to be tied here. Full expecting my heart to be ripped out.
- Base hit by Cano, 3-1. I don't think I can do this. Might have to just change the channel for a while.
- Strikes out Thames, which has to be huge pyschologically since that guy hits everything Liriano throws, and hits it a ton. Now it's Posada, and Franky is at 97 pitches so you know Gardy's hair trigger is getting itchy.
- Old man time with a base hit to score one, now 3-2 Twins, runners on first and second for Granderson, who should probably strike out on 3 pitches. Christ, guy has no clue where the strike zone is anyway.
- Granderson off the wall. Yanks lead 4-3. I'm done. Fuck this.
- Oh my sweet christ Sabathia walked in the tying run after walking Valencia on four straight pitches. How can that possibly happen? And with two outs after having struck Valencia out twice already. Just throw it down the middle and odds are he pees his pants.
- Tied heading to the seventh, just waiting to see if it's Guerrier or Crain who loses the game. In the meantime, I'll tell you about my dessert. I went with the Nutella crepe with vanilla ice cream and I have to tell you this might have been the best thing I've ever eaten. I had never had Nutella, but I know it's popular in certain places, and it was certainly popular with my mouth last night. The warm chocolatey crepe combined with the cold vanilla ice cream was perfect, and I'm not a dessert guy at all. No chance I would have ordered it on my own if it wasn't part of our Prix Fixe menu. And I'm damn glad it was. Outstanding.
- Crain on. Hopefully he'll be the Nutella Crepe in my garbage can of my life.
- Now I'm done for real.
Showing posts with label C.C. Sabathia. Show all posts
Showing posts with label C.C. Sabathia. Show all posts
Wednesday, October 6, 2010
Monday, October 4, 2010
Win Twins: American League Division Series Preview
Even though we all know the New York Yankees are going to sweep since they completely own the Minnesota Twins in every way, Kubel homer off Rivera aside, I feel like I should toss up some kind of preview of some kind since I like to pretend I'm a Twins writer. So how about we take a look, position by position, so we can truly get a read on how badly teh Yanks are going to own this sucker.
CATCHER: Joe Mauer (.327/.402/.469 - 9 HRs) vs. Jorge Posada (.248/.357/.454). Mauer is going to win this battle against any playoff catcher this year, although there's somebody in San Fran who might make a pretty good argument, but his hitting - even with his power disappearing - combined with his defense make him easily the winner in this argument. Posada is still an ageless wonder but his skills are starting to diminish, even though - and you're going to hear this a lot with NYY - he's still patient and draws a lot of walks and can still hit for power. His arm is basically shot (he only threw out 16% of base-stealers this year) but that won't really matter since the Twins can't/don't really run. ADVANTAGE: Twins
FIRST BASE: Michael Cuddyer (.271/.336/.417 - 14 HRs) vs. Mark Texeira (.256/.365/.481 - 33 HRs). This year was an off year for Tex (worst avg, obp, and slugging since he was a rook), but he still blows what the Twins have to offer completely out of the water. The bad Cuddy showed up this year, which is unfortunate because this is when they could use him most, what with their best player on the shelf the second half of the year. Hopefully he can recapture some of that 2006/2009 magic, because the Twins are going to need all the big bats they can get. Plus, Texeira is a 3-time gold glover, and although it's commendable that Cuddy is willing to play wherever they need him he's a god awful 1B-man. ADVANTAGE: Yankees
SECOND BASE: Orlando Hudson (.268/.338/.372 - 10 SBs) vs. Robinson Cano (.319/.381/.534 - 29 HRs). Look at those numbers. Cano is just ridiculous. Do you realize that slugging percentage of Cano's is the second-highest of any player in this series, behind on Jim Thome? And we know what Thome has done, but Cano isn't that far behind. And he plays frickin' second base! I don't mind Hudson, despite the fact that he's hit .171 since September 8th, but he's far, far, far outclassed here. Cano is basically Joe Mauer with power, while O-Hud is, well, Alexi Casilla with a a better reputation. ADVANTAGE: Yankees
THIRD BASE: Danny Valencia (.311/.351/.448 - 7 HRs) vs. Alex Rodriguez (.270/.341/.506 - 30 HRs). Similar to Texeira, A-Rod had one of the worst years of his entire career but still blows the Twins' offering away. Not as badly as Tex, thanks to Valencia's high average, good defense, and the fact that he seems to be getting better, but Rodiguez is still so far beyond Dannyboy that, much like Dr. Dre said to his rival rappers, "You couldn't see me with binoculars." Oh, and if you want to make the argument right now that A-Rod chokes in the playoffs do me a favor: shut down the internet window you are viewing this blog on and never, ever, ever come back here again because you are a retard. Also, and this has nothing to do with anything right now except that I'm watching Zombieland, I really dig Emma Stone. ADVANTAGE: Yankees
SHORTSTOP: J.J. Hardy (.268/.320/.394 - 6 HRs) vs. Derek Jeter (.270/.340/.370 - 18 SBs). In what is quickly becoming a common theme, Jeter is having the worst year of his career, but this one is at least close. In actually, Hardy out OPSes Jeter, even though it's like comparing Alexi Casilla to Matt Tolbert, thanks to his higher slugging, and according to every defensive metric I looked it, which is everything fangraphs has, Hardy is a better fielder. So we're going to have to give this one to Minnesota. Which doesn't feel right. And not because it's Captain Intensity and Sportsmanship, because he's been overrated for years, but because it's Hardy and he kind of sucks. Sorry ladies. ADVANTAGE: Twins
LEFT FIELD: Delmon Young (.298/.333/.493 - 21 HRs) vs. Brett Gardner (.277/.383/.379 - 47 SBs). Tough call, because these guys couldn't be more different. Young is the lumbering stick-man, finally coming into his own and showing some of his promise while at every pitch within a 4-mile radius of home plate. Gardner is the fleet of foot slap-hitter who is probably the best left-fielder in baseball and is very selective at the plate. It is close, but Young's extra power can't make up for Gardner's non-hitting skills. And I don't mean like, his ability to cook a nice steak on the grill (top notch from what I hear. He uses a little bit of garlic butter is the rumor), I mean the speed and fielding thing. ADVANTAGE: Yankees
CENTER FIELD: Denard Span (.264/.331/.348 - 26 SBs, 10 3Bs) vs. Curtis Granderson (.247/.324/.468 - 24 HRs). Sigh. Remember when Span looked like he was going to become your prototypical leadoff hitter? Like a poor man's Tim Raines with less steals? Well now he's more like a poor man's Vince Coleman with way, way less steals (NOTE: Coleman was actually a terrible hitter, which you probably don't remember because you were blinded by his blindingly blinding speed. Blind.) Granderson has been just barely good this year, but he destroys the new, slower Vince Coleman. Quick, guess how many walks Spoleman has had since August 24th: It's 12. Jason Repko has nine in that same time frame, and he plays like every 8th day. In short, Denard Span is a huge disappointment and I hope he gets the mumps. ADVANTAGE: Yankees
RIGHT FIELD: Jason Kubel (.249/.323/.427 - 21 HRs) vs. Nick Swisher (.288/.359/.511 - 29 HRs). Both of these guys would be better off playing softball so don't expect any great fielding antics (unless you count diving and catching a ball a normal fielder would get to standing up as a great fielding play), but Swisher is merely bad while my boy Kubes is basically a butcher of historic proportions. And as far as hitting goes, Kubel is Kubel this year, while Swisher is what Kubel was last year. No contest. ADVANTAGE: Yankees
DESIGNATED HITTER: Jim Thome (.283/.412/.627 - 25 HRs) vs. Lance Berkman (.248/.368/.413). Thank god Thome is involved here, because he'd win a comparison against anyone. Berkman? Please. A-Rod? Not this year. Babe Ruth? Sorry fatty. Zeus? No mythical beings allowed. Jesus? I said no mythical beings allowed. So Berkman and his big giant chin have no chance. ADVANTAGE: Twins
STARTER #1/#5: Francisco Liriano (14-10, 3.62 ERA, 1.26 WHIP) vs. CC Sabathia (21-7, 3.18 ERA, 1.19 WHIP). This is an incredibly even matchup, especially because when you start looking at the nerd stats Liriano actually comes out pretty far ahead thanks to his great HR/9 mark and because his walk and strikeout numbers are way better than Sabathia's. Just looking at the "mainstream" stats you'd pick Sabathia, but go a bit deeper and it's pretty obvious Liriano has actually been the better pitcher this year, and it's actually not all that close. ADVANTAGE: Twins
STARTER #2: Carl Pavano (17-11, 3.75 ERA, 1.19 WHIP) vs. Andy Pettitte (11-3, 3.28 ERA, 1.27 WHIP). This is a pretty even matchup, if you ignore the fact that the Twins seemingly couldn't hit Pettitte if he tossed the ball underhand. A little wrinkle here is that Pettite is just getting back from injury, having pitched just three times since mid-July, and topped out at just 88 pitches in those three starts since returning. Pavano has been very good this year, even though he's tapered off a bit since that streak of 18 consecutive complete games or whatever it was, and with his propensity to throw strikes the patient approach of the Yankees shouldn't bother him, and may even play in his favor. ADVANTAGE: Twins
STARTER #3: Brian Duensing (10-3, 2.62 ERA, 1.20 WHIP) vs. Phil Hughes (18-8, 4.19 ERA, 1.25 WHIP). One thing I really love about this matchup is that since the all-star break Hughes has been absolutely awful, with an ERA near 5 despite a fluky low BABIP of .262 and less than a 2-1 KK/BB ratio. That means he's been simply dreadful. And we know, outside of his last few starts, that Duensing has been brilliant this year, so all signs point to a Twinkie advantage. Except of course, that the last time he pitched at Yankee Stadium in the playoffs he got shelled. Still.....ADVANTAGE: Twins
STARTER #4: Nick Blackburn (10-12, 5.42 ERA, 1.45 WHIP) vs. A.J. Burnett (10-15, 5.26 ERA, 1.51 WHIP). I know Blackburn has been pitching must better since his trip to AAA, and I know Burnett is mostly a mess, but I can't possibly give the advantage to the Twins here. Blackburn doesn't have great stuff so he must rely on location so much that his margin for error is razor-thin, and when he's even slightly off he's gotten roasted by the likes of Baltimore, Oakland, and Kansas City - can you imagine what the Yankees will do to him if he's not 100% locked in? It's not like Burnett has been great lately, since June 4th his ERA is 6.46, and I know Blackburn has come up in the clutch in the past, but I just can't do it. Plus Sabathia is almost certainly going to be the one pitching this game. ADVANTAGE: Yankees
[NOTE: New York hasn't announced their pitching lineup, so this is all just conjecture. Good chance Sabathia comes back to pitch game #4 (where he'd obviously have a huge advantage over Blackburn), leaving Pettitte vs. Liriano for game 5 if it gets that far.]
CLOSER: Matt Capps (42/48 saves, 2.47 ERA, 1.26 WHIP) vs. Mariano Rivera (33/38 saves, 1.80 ERA, 0.83 WHIP). Father fucking time aka the Sandman just keeps rolling along, and you can throw out that blown save to the Twins earlier because those 2 ERs he allowed accounted for 33% of the ERs he allowed through August. Of course, he's been super-mortal here in September, with an ERA of 7.38 and 3 blown saves in the month, but I'm not exactly ready to call him done just yet. Plus, the best team Capps has ever played on before this year was a 68-win Pirate team, so not only has he never pitched in the playoffs, but he's really never pitched in a meaningful game. Seriously, how do you feel when you think about Capps coming in to Yankee Stadium in the bottom of the ninth with the Twins up 3-2? Nauseous, at best. ADVANTAGE: Yankees
BULLPEN: Crain/Fuentes/Guerrier/Mijaries/Rauch vs. Wood/Chamberlain/Robertson/Gaudin/Logan. I haven't seen the Yankees postseason roster, so I'm not sure if all those guys will be on there, but the main three - Wood, Chamberlain, and Robertson - certainly will be. Wood has basically been unhittable since he came over from Cleveland, but Chamberlain hasn't been great this year (although he still strikes out a ton of guys and can be untouchable when he's on) and Robertson is definitely hittable. One thing that should help the Twins out is that the only lefty in the pen is Boone Logan, and although he's been good this year and particularly tough on lefties, he's been awful in his career overall and hasn't ever pitched in the postseason - could be where the Twins can take advantage. Overall, despite the struggles in the last couple of weeks, I like the Twins' group better. Although every single one of them scares me to death. ADVANTAGE: Twins
Total it all up and the Twins look good on the mound, with the Yankees holding an advantage at the plate and win the overall breakdown by the slimmest of margins at 8-7. Of course, games aren't played with words on crappy, third-rate blogs, they're played between the lines where anything can happen. Because this is your state, this is your team, and this is Twins Territory!
Yanks in 4.
But not if WonderbabyTM has anything to say about it.
If you're looking for another take, here's Reusse's breakdown using a similar method, but the results are very, very different and a lot more stupider.
CATCHER: Joe Mauer (.327/.402/.469 - 9 HRs) vs. Jorge Posada (.248/.357/.454). Mauer is going to win this battle against any playoff catcher this year, although there's somebody in San Fran who might make a pretty good argument, but his hitting - even with his power disappearing - combined with his defense make him easily the winner in this argument. Posada is still an ageless wonder but his skills are starting to diminish, even though - and you're going to hear this a lot with NYY - he's still patient and draws a lot of walks and can still hit for power. His arm is basically shot (he only threw out 16% of base-stealers this year) but that won't really matter since the Twins can't/don't really run. ADVANTAGE: Twins
FIRST BASE: Michael Cuddyer (.271/.336/.417 - 14 HRs) vs. Mark Texeira (.256/.365/.481 - 33 HRs). This year was an off year for Tex (worst avg, obp, and slugging since he was a rook), but he still blows what the Twins have to offer completely out of the water. The bad Cuddy showed up this year, which is unfortunate because this is when they could use him most, what with their best player on the shelf the second half of the year. Hopefully he can recapture some of that 2006/2009 magic, because the Twins are going to need all the big bats they can get. Plus, Texeira is a 3-time gold glover, and although it's commendable that Cuddy is willing to play wherever they need him he's a god awful 1B-man. ADVANTAGE: Yankees
SECOND BASE: Orlando Hudson (.268/.338/.372 - 10 SBs) vs. Robinson Cano (.319/.381/.534 - 29 HRs). Look at those numbers. Cano is just ridiculous. Do you realize that slugging percentage of Cano's is the second-highest of any player in this series, behind on Jim Thome? And we know what Thome has done, but Cano isn't that far behind. And he plays frickin' second base! I don't mind Hudson, despite the fact that he's hit .171 since September 8th, but he's far, far, far outclassed here. Cano is basically Joe Mauer with power, while O-Hud is, well, Alexi Casilla with a a better reputation. ADVANTAGE: Yankees
THIRD BASE: Danny Valencia (.311/.351/.448 - 7 HRs) vs. Alex Rodriguez (.270/.341/.506 - 30 HRs). Similar to Texeira, A-Rod had one of the worst years of his entire career but still blows the Twins' offering away. Not as badly as Tex, thanks to Valencia's high average, good defense, and the fact that he seems to be getting better, but Rodiguez is still so far beyond Dannyboy that, much like Dr. Dre said to his rival rappers, "You couldn't see me with binoculars." Oh, and if you want to make the argument right now that A-Rod chokes in the playoffs do me a favor: shut down the internet window you are viewing this blog on and never, ever, ever come back here again because you are a retard. Also, and this has nothing to do with anything right now except that I'm watching Zombieland, I really dig Emma Stone. ADVANTAGE: Yankees
SHORTSTOP: J.J. Hardy (.268/.320/.394 - 6 HRs) vs. Derek Jeter (.270/.340/.370 - 18 SBs). In what is quickly becoming a common theme, Jeter is having the worst year of his career, but this one is at least close. In actually, Hardy out OPSes Jeter, even though it's like comparing Alexi Casilla to Matt Tolbert, thanks to his higher slugging, and according to every defensive metric I looked it, which is everything fangraphs has, Hardy is a better fielder. So we're going to have to give this one to Minnesota. Which doesn't feel right. And not because it's Captain Intensity and Sportsmanship, because he's been overrated for years, but because it's Hardy and he kind of sucks. Sorry ladies. ADVANTAGE: Twins
LEFT FIELD: Delmon Young (.298/.333/.493 - 21 HRs) vs. Brett Gardner (.277/.383/.379 - 47 SBs). Tough call, because these guys couldn't be more different. Young is the lumbering stick-man, finally coming into his own and showing some of his promise while at every pitch within a 4-mile radius of home plate. Gardner is the fleet of foot slap-hitter who is probably the best left-fielder in baseball and is very selective at the plate. It is close, but Young's extra power can't make up for Gardner's non-hitting skills. And I don't mean like, his ability to cook a nice steak on the grill (top notch from what I hear. He uses a little bit of garlic butter is the rumor), I mean the speed and fielding thing. ADVANTAGE: Yankees
CENTER FIELD: Denard Span (.264/.331/.348 - 26 SBs, 10 3Bs) vs. Curtis Granderson (.247/.324/.468 - 24 HRs). Sigh. Remember when Span looked like he was going to become your prototypical leadoff hitter? Like a poor man's Tim Raines with less steals? Well now he's more like a poor man's Vince Coleman with way, way less steals (NOTE: Coleman was actually a terrible hitter, which you probably don't remember because you were blinded by his blindingly blinding speed. Blind.) Granderson has been just barely good this year, but he destroys the new, slower Vince Coleman. Quick, guess how many walks Spoleman has had since August 24th: It's 12. Jason Repko has nine in that same time frame, and he plays like every 8th day. In short, Denard Span is a huge disappointment and I hope he gets the mumps. ADVANTAGE: Yankees
RIGHT FIELD: Jason Kubel (.249/.323/.427 - 21 HRs) vs. Nick Swisher (.288/.359/.511 - 29 HRs). Both of these guys would be better off playing softball so don't expect any great fielding antics (unless you count diving and catching a ball a normal fielder would get to standing up as a great fielding play), but Swisher is merely bad while my boy Kubes is basically a butcher of historic proportions. And as far as hitting goes, Kubel is Kubel this year, while Swisher is what Kubel was last year. No contest. ADVANTAGE: Yankees
DESIGNATED HITTER: Jim Thome (.283/.412/.627 - 25 HRs) vs. Lance Berkman (.248/.368/.413). Thank god Thome is involved here, because he'd win a comparison against anyone. Berkman? Please. A-Rod? Not this year. Babe Ruth? Sorry fatty. Zeus? No mythical beings allowed. Jesus? I said no mythical beings allowed. So Berkman and his big giant chin have no chance. ADVANTAGE: Twins
STARTER #1/#5: Francisco Liriano (14-10, 3.62 ERA, 1.26 WHIP) vs. CC Sabathia (21-7, 3.18 ERA, 1.19 WHIP). This is an incredibly even matchup, especially because when you start looking at the nerd stats Liriano actually comes out pretty far ahead thanks to his great HR/9 mark and because his walk and strikeout numbers are way better than Sabathia's. Just looking at the "mainstream" stats you'd pick Sabathia, but go a bit deeper and it's pretty obvious Liriano has actually been the better pitcher this year, and it's actually not all that close. ADVANTAGE: Twins
STARTER #2: Carl Pavano (17-11, 3.75 ERA, 1.19 WHIP) vs. Andy Pettitte (11-3, 3.28 ERA, 1.27 WHIP). This is a pretty even matchup, if you ignore the fact that the Twins seemingly couldn't hit Pettitte if he tossed the ball underhand. A little wrinkle here is that Pettite is just getting back from injury, having pitched just three times since mid-July, and topped out at just 88 pitches in those three starts since returning. Pavano has been very good this year, even though he's tapered off a bit since that streak of 18 consecutive complete games or whatever it was, and with his propensity to throw strikes the patient approach of the Yankees shouldn't bother him, and may even play in his favor. ADVANTAGE: Twins
STARTER #3: Brian Duensing (10-3, 2.62 ERA, 1.20 WHIP) vs. Phil Hughes (18-8, 4.19 ERA, 1.25 WHIP). One thing I really love about this matchup is that since the all-star break Hughes has been absolutely awful, with an ERA near 5 despite a fluky low BABIP of .262 and less than a 2-1 KK/BB ratio. That means he's been simply dreadful. And we know, outside of his last few starts, that Duensing has been brilliant this year, so all signs point to a Twinkie advantage. Except of course, that the last time he pitched at Yankee Stadium in the playoffs he got shelled. Still.....ADVANTAGE: Twins
STARTER #4: Nick Blackburn (10-12, 5.42 ERA, 1.45 WHIP) vs. A.J. Burnett (10-15, 5.26 ERA, 1.51 WHIP). I know Blackburn has been pitching must better since his trip to AAA, and I know Burnett is mostly a mess, but I can't possibly give the advantage to the Twins here. Blackburn doesn't have great stuff so he must rely on location so much that his margin for error is razor-thin, and when he's even slightly off he's gotten roasted by the likes of Baltimore, Oakland, and Kansas City - can you imagine what the Yankees will do to him if he's not 100% locked in? It's not like Burnett has been great lately, since June 4th his ERA is 6.46, and I know Blackburn has come up in the clutch in the past, but I just can't do it. Plus Sabathia is almost certainly going to be the one pitching this game. ADVANTAGE: Yankees
[NOTE: New York hasn't announced their pitching lineup, so this is all just conjecture. Good chance Sabathia comes back to pitch game #4 (where he'd obviously have a huge advantage over Blackburn), leaving Pettitte vs. Liriano for game 5 if it gets that far.]
CLOSER: Matt Capps (42/48 saves, 2.47 ERA, 1.26 WHIP) vs. Mariano Rivera (33/38 saves, 1.80 ERA, 0.83 WHIP). Father fucking time aka the Sandman just keeps rolling along, and you can throw out that blown save to the Twins earlier because those 2 ERs he allowed accounted for 33% of the ERs he allowed through August. Of course, he's been super-mortal here in September, with an ERA of 7.38 and 3 blown saves in the month, but I'm not exactly ready to call him done just yet. Plus, the best team Capps has ever played on before this year was a 68-win Pirate team, so not only has he never pitched in the playoffs, but he's really never pitched in a meaningful game. Seriously, how do you feel when you think about Capps coming in to Yankee Stadium in the bottom of the ninth with the Twins up 3-2? Nauseous, at best. ADVANTAGE: Yankees
BULLPEN: Crain/Fuentes/Guerrier/Mijaries/Rauch vs. Wood/Chamberlain/Robertson/Gaudin/Logan. I haven't seen the Yankees postseason roster, so I'm not sure if all those guys will be on there, but the main three - Wood, Chamberlain, and Robertson - certainly will be. Wood has basically been unhittable since he came over from Cleveland, but Chamberlain hasn't been great this year (although he still strikes out a ton of guys and can be untouchable when he's on) and Robertson is definitely hittable. One thing that should help the Twins out is that the only lefty in the pen is Boone Logan, and although he's been good this year and particularly tough on lefties, he's been awful in his career overall and hasn't ever pitched in the postseason - could be where the Twins can take advantage. Overall, despite the struggles in the last couple of weeks, I like the Twins' group better. Although every single one of them scares me to death. ADVANTAGE: Twins
Total it all up and the Twins look good on the mound, with the Yankees holding an advantage at the plate and win the overall breakdown by the slimmest of margins at 8-7. Of course, games aren't played with words on crappy, third-rate blogs, they're played between the lines where anything can happen. Because this is your state, this is your team, and this is Twins Territory!
Yanks in 4.
But not if WonderbabyTM has anything to say about it.
If you're looking for another take, here's Reusse's breakdown using a similar method, but the results are very, very different and a lot more stupider.
Monday, April 12, 2010
Week in Review - 4/12/2010
I heart baseball. And the Masters. And nice weather. Truly, this was a glorious weekend.
WHO WAS AWESOME
1. The Twins. A 5-2 road trip to start the season, with the two opponents being the Angels and White Sox? Hell yes, great start to the season. Rauch looks like the next Mariano Rivera but white and a foot taller. Delmon Young has improved his patience (decreased swing %) while at the same time increasing his aggressiveness (anecdotal, but it seems like he puts it all into every swing and has mostly eliminated those weak "make contact" swings he got into the habit of doing last year). The starters have been solid save the first time out from Baker, and the bullpen has been nails in front of Rauch, except for Mijares who has been brutal so far. The new guys, Hudson and Hardy, have been solid, Mauer and Morneau have picked back up as MVP candidates, and even this year's slow starters - Kubel and Span - have found ways to contribute. Assuming Hardy and Delmon are really this good and Kubel and Span are the same as last year, this lineup is absolutely loaded. With a good bullpen and above average starters, they have a very good look about them through week 1. Needless to say, I like what I'm seeing. I'm going to stop now because I'm pissing myself off with my pollyanna optimisim and I don't want to have to kick my own ass.
2. The Masters. We didn't get the drama of a playoff, but there was still plenty to enjoy at Augusta. Tiger came back and played well, only to melt down on the back 9 on Sunday with both the driver and the putter, Anthony Kim went on an Anthony Kim-like run of birdies to become a factor, Lee Westwood did what the 54-hole leader seems to do in every major and shoot right around par, and Tom Watson and Fred Couples hung around long enough to give the old-timers some hope. In the end though, Phil Mickelson managed to out last his own hitting the ball in the woodsness to play an overall brilliant back 9 at -4 while everyone else was making mistakes, including Tiger's 3-putt from 6 feet on 14 and a few makeable birdies Westwood burned by the cup. I'm not a huge Phil fan, but I'm not an anti-fan either, so overall this result pleases me. Plus that jackass Cink missed the cut, which is always a positive.
3. Matt Garza. Oh hell. Damn hell. Garza pitched the kind of game aces pitch, going 8 innings against the Orioles giving up just four hits and an earned run while striking out 9. Don't dismiss the Orioles, either, they have a pretty good lineup this year, so perhaps the Garza we were waiting for has arrived - only he's wearing a different uniform. At least Delmon is sort of starting come around. In any case, I picked Garza for runner-up in the Cy Young race, and this start shows he's got the stuff. At least we still have Scott Baker, who has the same kind of stuff and mental make up and could also end up being a shut down ace, right? Blackburn? Slowey? Crap.
4. C.C. Sabathia. Well I don't like him or the Yankees, but tossing a near no-hitter against a pretty good Rays squad is impressive so he probably deserves some credit. But instead of doing that, I'll just tell you how brutally homerishly awful the Yankee radio announcers are. I douwnloaded the MLB At-Bat app for Blackberry, which is awesome, and was listening to it and my god, the chick announcer on there is so rah-rah she's probably humping most of the roster. There was a play where Carl Crawford overslid second on a force play and was tagged out by Robinson Cano, and she couldn't stop talking about "what a great heads up play" and "how alert Cano is" and "how it's just instinctive." In case that wasn't enough, she drops this one, "You know who else makes plays like that? Derek Jeter. Stand next to Jeter long enough and you start making those kind of plays." Good lord, lady, he tagged a guy out, pull your dress down. Also, after a strike out looking she said that "Cervelli framed that so beautifully without moving his glove, that's why Sabathia got that call." Basically the entire time I was listening she was auditorially servicing each player - worse even than Gladden. For reals.
5. Blue Jays. The Jays are a bit surprising at 5-1 to start the year, but even more surprising has been the quality of starting pitching they have been getting. Going into the year, nobody was really worried about their lineup, but they had something like 10-12 pitchers, any of whom could have won a rotation spot and nobody was guaranteed to be there. Sounds like a recipe for disaster, but they have been pretty lights out so far, holding their opponent to four runs or less four times, and never allowing more than six in a game to this point. Shaun Marcum nearly tossed a no-hitter on opening day and then followed that up with a 7 inning, 2 hit performance against the Rangers on Sunday, while Dana Eveland threw a shutout and Ricky Romero and Brian Tallet chipped in with quality starts. If this pitching is for real, and it's almost certainly not, Toronto could actually contend in the East.
WHO SUCKED
1. Matt Howard. OOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOFFFFFFFFFFFFFf. There isn't an OOF oofy enough to quantify this oof. I swear the entire first ten minutes of the championship game was nothing more than Butler constantly dumping the ball into Howard on the block against Zoubek or a Plumlee, whereupon Howard would use some truly nifty footwork to go under/around his man and get himself in good position to score around the goal. Of course, then he would just miss. And miss. And miss. I swear he missed five shots in the first four minutes, and then decided instead of missing he would just spend the rest of the game in foul trouble. He played better in the second half, but that slow beginning really set the tone and if he had hit a few more shots Butler spends most the game ahead instead of behind. But don't cry for Butler, because they lose only one contributor and he's not all that significant - Mack, Howard, and Hayward are all back - so they have a good chance at making it here again; at which point no doubt a bunch of morons will try pegging them as a Cinderella again. God you people are dumb.
2. Jim Furyk. The good news is that Furyk shot four shots better on the second day than the first at the Masters. The bad news is that the first day was an 80. 80! A freaking 80. You know who else shot an 80 in either of the first two rounds? Michael Campbell, Ian Woosnam, Anders Hansen, Sandy Lyle, Ben Martin, and Henrik Stenson. One good player, two 100-year-olds, a flash in the pan, and two never-will-bes. Jim Furyk doesn't belong in that group (neither does Stenson, but I don't think he was considered as having a good shot to win this thing like Furyk was). This is just mind-boggling. Furyk officially finishes 91st out of 96 golfers, although one of the guys withdrew even though he had a better score, so really he was more like 92nd. Not that that distinction really matters. Just an absolute stinker by Furyk, reminiscent of watching Drew Butera try to bat. Although pretend Butera was a mult-time all-star and was still in his prime, but suddenly looked lost like he did the other night. Yuck.
3. Houston Astros. There is just one winless team remaining in MLB, and it's the lowly Astros. More impressive than the 0-6 record, however, is how they've managed to lose. Here are their run totals for the six games: 2-0-4-0-6-1. Yes, that's two shut outs mixed in there, by Barry Zito and J.A. Happ of all people. And the games where they scored 4 and 6 they actually had late leads but lost due to bullpen meltdowns, which I guess is to be expected when you sign Brandon Lyon to be your closer.
4. Mike Gonzalez. And speaking of closers, it looks like we might have the first closer demotion of the year thanks to the Orioles' Gonzalez, who blew two saves this week in three tries and blew them spectacularly, giving up two runs in each outing to not just blow the save, but lose the game as well. Even in the one game he managed to not blow he still walked two and gave up a hit in his one inning of work, and is currently rocking a 18.00 ERA and 4.50 WHIP. He's basically a pretty good set-up man, but really just not a good closer. Very LaTroy Hawkins-ish, only left-handed and less black.
5. Taylor Teagarden. With Rangers' starting catcher Jarrod Saltalamacchia on the DL, Teagarden was elevated to every day catcher for Texas. He has responded by going 0-12 with 7 strikeouts. He's a semi-well regarded prospect type, although not considered an offensive force, so he'll probably be fine, but that is not a great start to your season.
If you are going to the opener today I hate you.
WHO WAS AWESOME
1. The Twins. A 5-2 road trip to start the season, with the two opponents being the Angels and White Sox? Hell yes, great start to the season. Rauch looks like the next Mariano Rivera but white and a foot taller. Delmon Young has improved his patience (decreased swing %) while at the same time increasing his aggressiveness (anecdotal, but it seems like he puts it all into every swing and has mostly eliminated those weak "make contact" swings he got into the habit of doing last year). The starters have been solid save the first time out from Baker, and the bullpen has been nails in front of Rauch, except for Mijares who has been brutal so far. The new guys, Hudson and Hardy, have been solid, Mauer and Morneau have picked back up as MVP candidates, and even this year's slow starters - Kubel and Span - have found ways to contribute. Assuming Hardy and Delmon are really this good and Kubel and Span are the same as last year, this lineup is absolutely loaded. With a good bullpen and above average starters, they have a very good look about them through week 1. Needless to say, I like what I'm seeing. I'm going to stop now because I'm pissing myself off with my pollyanna optimisim and I don't want to have to kick my own ass.
2. The Masters. We didn't get the drama of a playoff, but there was still plenty to enjoy at Augusta. Tiger came back and played well, only to melt down on the back 9 on Sunday with both the driver and the putter, Anthony Kim went on an Anthony Kim-like run of birdies to become a factor, Lee Westwood did what the 54-hole leader seems to do in every major and shoot right around par, and Tom Watson and Fred Couples hung around long enough to give the old-timers some hope. In the end though, Phil Mickelson managed to out last his own hitting the ball in the woodsness to play an overall brilliant back 9 at -4 while everyone else was making mistakes, including Tiger's 3-putt from 6 feet on 14 and a few makeable birdies Westwood burned by the cup. I'm not a huge Phil fan, but I'm not an anti-fan either, so overall this result pleases me. Plus that jackass Cink missed the cut, which is always a positive.
3. Matt Garza. Oh hell. Damn hell. Garza pitched the kind of game aces pitch, going 8 innings against the Orioles giving up just four hits and an earned run while striking out 9. Don't dismiss the Orioles, either, they have a pretty good lineup this year, so perhaps the Garza we were waiting for has arrived - only he's wearing a different uniform. At least Delmon is sort of starting come around. In any case, I picked Garza for runner-up in the Cy Young race, and this start shows he's got the stuff. At least we still have Scott Baker, who has the same kind of stuff and mental make up and could also end up being a shut down ace, right? Blackburn? Slowey? Crap.
4. C.C. Sabathia. Well I don't like him or the Yankees, but tossing a near no-hitter against a pretty good Rays squad is impressive so he probably deserves some credit. But instead of doing that, I'll just tell you how brutally homerishly awful the Yankee radio announcers are. I douwnloaded the MLB At-Bat app for Blackberry, which is awesome, and was listening to it and my god, the chick announcer on there is so rah-rah she's probably humping most of the roster. There was a play where Carl Crawford overslid second on a force play and was tagged out by Robinson Cano, and she couldn't stop talking about "what a great heads up play" and "how alert Cano is" and "how it's just instinctive." In case that wasn't enough, she drops this one, "You know who else makes plays like that? Derek Jeter. Stand next to Jeter long enough and you start making those kind of plays." Good lord, lady, he tagged a guy out, pull your dress down. Also, after a strike out looking she said that "Cervelli framed that so beautifully without moving his glove, that's why Sabathia got that call." Basically the entire time I was listening she was auditorially servicing each player - worse even than Gladden. For reals.
5. Blue Jays. The Jays are a bit surprising at 5-1 to start the year, but even more surprising has been the quality of starting pitching they have been getting. Going into the year, nobody was really worried about their lineup, but they had something like 10-12 pitchers, any of whom could have won a rotation spot and nobody was guaranteed to be there. Sounds like a recipe for disaster, but they have been pretty lights out so far, holding their opponent to four runs or less four times, and never allowing more than six in a game to this point. Shaun Marcum nearly tossed a no-hitter on opening day and then followed that up with a 7 inning, 2 hit performance against the Rangers on Sunday, while Dana Eveland threw a shutout and Ricky Romero and Brian Tallet chipped in with quality starts. If this pitching is for real, and it's almost certainly not, Toronto could actually contend in the East.
WHO SUCKED
1. Matt Howard. OOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOFFFFFFFFFFFFFf. There isn't an OOF oofy enough to quantify this oof. I swear the entire first ten minutes of the championship game was nothing more than Butler constantly dumping the ball into Howard on the block against Zoubek or a Plumlee, whereupon Howard would use some truly nifty footwork to go under/around his man and get himself in good position to score around the goal. Of course, then he would just miss. And miss. And miss. I swear he missed five shots in the first four minutes, and then decided instead of missing he would just spend the rest of the game in foul trouble. He played better in the second half, but that slow beginning really set the tone and if he had hit a few more shots Butler spends most the game ahead instead of behind. But don't cry for Butler, because they lose only one contributor and he's not all that significant - Mack, Howard, and Hayward are all back - so they have a good chance at making it here again; at which point no doubt a bunch of morons will try pegging them as a Cinderella again. God you people are dumb.
2. Jim Furyk. The good news is that Furyk shot four shots better on the second day than the first at the Masters. The bad news is that the first day was an 80. 80! A freaking 80. You know who else shot an 80 in either of the first two rounds? Michael Campbell, Ian Woosnam, Anders Hansen, Sandy Lyle, Ben Martin, and Henrik Stenson. One good player, two 100-year-olds, a flash in the pan, and two never-will-bes. Jim Furyk doesn't belong in that group (neither does Stenson, but I don't think he was considered as having a good shot to win this thing like Furyk was). This is just mind-boggling. Furyk officially finishes 91st out of 96 golfers, although one of the guys withdrew even though he had a better score, so really he was more like 92nd. Not that that distinction really matters. Just an absolute stinker by Furyk, reminiscent of watching Drew Butera try to bat. Although pretend Butera was a mult-time all-star and was still in his prime, but suddenly looked lost like he did the other night. Yuck.
3. Houston Astros. There is just one winless team remaining in MLB, and it's the lowly Astros. More impressive than the 0-6 record, however, is how they've managed to lose. Here are their run totals for the six games: 2-0-4-0-6-1. Yes, that's two shut outs mixed in there, by Barry Zito and J.A. Happ of all people. And the games where they scored 4 and 6 they actually had late leads but lost due to bullpen meltdowns, which I guess is to be expected when you sign Brandon Lyon to be your closer.
4. Mike Gonzalez. And speaking of closers, it looks like we might have the first closer demotion of the year thanks to the Orioles' Gonzalez, who blew two saves this week in three tries and blew them spectacularly, giving up two runs in each outing to not just blow the save, but lose the game as well. Even in the one game he managed to not blow he still walked two and gave up a hit in his one inning of work, and is currently rocking a 18.00 ERA and 4.50 WHIP. He's basically a pretty good set-up man, but really just not a good closer. Very LaTroy Hawkins-ish, only left-handed and less black.
5. Taylor Teagarden. With Rangers' starting catcher Jarrod Saltalamacchia on the DL, Teagarden was elevated to every day catcher for Texas. He has responded by going 0-12 with 7 strikeouts. He's a semi-well regarded prospect type, although not considered an offensive force, so he'll probably be fine, but that is not a great start to your season.
If you are going to the opener today I hate you.
Wednesday, October 28, 2009
World Series Game 1 Live Blog
Picking this bad boy up in the fourth, 1-0 Phillies thanks to the awesome Chase Utley. Sabathia looked shaky early, but seems to have settled down, and Cliff Lee has been great.
- Cliff Lee is like the next Sandy Koufax, dude. I wasn't sure why they were going with Lee over Hamels, but he just struck out the side and looked awesome doing it. Good call charlie Manuel.
- Wow, I'm so used to Gardy here that I'm actually stunned that Robinson Cano isn't bunting here with a runner on first and nobody out. Of course, Cano isn't exactly Punto, and he hit around .300 with 20+ homers, so I guess this isn't quite the same situation.
- Wow, what a great freaking play by Rollins. I have no idea if he meant to catch it or drop it, but he turned two either way and it was, simply put, brilliant.
- UTLEYYYYyyyyyyyyy x2
- By the way, I checked out some of the Wolves' game tonight, and first of all, that team is god awful (currently losing 74-61), and secondly, holy crap is Damien Wilkins a terrible defender. He's ok on offense, in a boring sort of way (10 pts/9 rebs) but just a terrible, terrible, horrible, ugly defender. In the fifteen minutes or so I watched, he gave up a bunch of layups, both by getting beat off the dribble and by losing guys away from the ball on cuts or screens. It was, without question, the worst thing I've ever watched - other than Jumper.
- McCarver keeps talking about how Jayson Werth is the best player nobody is talking about, and it turns out in a rare turn of events he's right. .268/.373/..506 with 36 homers this year? That's nearly identical to the year Jason Bay had, and Bay is talked about as a top five MVP kind of guy, while Werth is rarely mentioned in any conversation of the game's best. You know why? People love RBIs, and Bay had 119 while Werth had 99. Werth is kind of like the Jason Kubel of the National League, and he's rapidly moving up my list of favorite players.
- Now that I think about it, I think the debate was actually Hamels or Pedro for game 2, not Hamels vs. Lee for game 1. In any case, Cliff Lee is god damned awesome.
- Jeter knocks a hit with one out in the bottom of the sixth. Man, he is such a true Yankee hero. He's like the Brett Favre of baseball (which kind of makes him the Pete Rose of baseball, which actually makes a lot of sense).
- Lee gets Damon to pop up, and not only does he catch it himself (going against a very silly unwritten rule of baseball) but kind of pulls a hybrid Rickey Henderson 1-handed catch/Hap Felsch basket catch). Very pimp. Lee is rapidly moving up the chart of my favorite players, also partially because of that wicked ass curveball that I somehow didn't realize he had.
- It's now clear that I'm rooting heavily for the Phillies, which makes sense since I kind of adopted them as my NL team after I went to a game at Citizen's Bank Park for a work thing. I wasn't expected Yankee hatred to bubble to the surface, but here it is. It wasn't until I started picturing the articles and reactions if they won that my blood started to boil. Please don't let the Yankees win, it's going to be disgusting.
- CC walks Francisco to lead off the inning, but gets a double play and another easy out. He's at 113 pitches, so is probably done for the night. That was a big chance to get a couple more, hopefully it doesn't kill them, because that Philly bullpen is questionable at best. Luckily kick ass Cliff Lee is only at about 86, two more innings and then hand it over to Lidge (and close your eyes and pray).
- One other thing I forget to mention from the Wolves game (currently losing 87-79), is that Terrence Williams, formerly of Louisville and now on the Nets, is going to be an absolute stud. The announcer called him a point guard trapped in a linebacker's body, and that's a pretty apt description. He currently has 15 points and 10 boards, and was unstoppable when I was watching (Brook Lopez has 27 and 14, but he's a weirdo and the Wolves don't have anything resembling a center, so I'm not impressed).
- Holy crap Natalie Portman is on Top Chef (which we are watching, I'm watching the game on an internet feed) and oh my goodness is she hot. This isn't quite like seeing her live, but she's not in a movie role and she is just amazing looking. I always had her near the top of my list, but I have kind of forgotten about her lately. No more. She is rapidly moving up my list of hottest chicks. Look:
- Cliff Lee is like the next Sandy Koufax, dude. I wasn't sure why they were going with Lee over Hamels, but he just struck out the side and looked awesome doing it. Good call charlie Manuel.
- Wow, I'm so used to Gardy here that I'm actually stunned that Robinson Cano isn't bunting here with a runner on first and nobody out. Of course, Cano isn't exactly Punto, and he hit around .300 with 20+ homers, so I guess this isn't quite the same situation.
- Wow, what a great freaking play by Rollins. I have no idea if he meant to catch it or drop it, but he turned two either way and it was, simply put, brilliant.
- UTLEYYYYyyyyyyyyy x2
- By the way, I checked out some of the Wolves' game tonight, and first of all, that team is god awful (currently losing 74-61), and secondly, holy crap is Damien Wilkins a terrible defender. He's ok on offense, in a boring sort of way (10 pts/9 rebs) but just a terrible, terrible, horrible, ugly defender. In the fifteen minutes or so I watched, he gave up a bunch of layups, both by getting beat off the dribble and by losing guys away from the ball on cuts or screens. It was, without question, the worst thing I've ever watched - other than Jumper.
- McCarver keeps talking about how Jayson Werth is the best player nobody is talking about, and it turns out in a rare turn of events he's right. .268/.373/..506 with 36 homers this year? That's nearly identical to the year Jason Bay had, and Bay is talked about as a top five MVP kind of guy, while Werth is rarely mentioned in any conversation of the game's best. You know why? People love RBIs, and Bay had 119 while Werth had 99. Werth is kind of like the Jason Kubel of the National League, and he's rapidly moving up my list of favorite players.
- Now that I think about it, I think the debate was actually Hamels or Pedro for game 2, not Hamels vs. Lee for game 1. In any case, Cliff Lee is god damned awesome.
- Jeter knocks a hit with one out in the bottom of the sixth. Man, he is such a true Yankee hero. He's like the Brett Favre of baseball (which kind of makes him the Pete Rose of baseball, which actually makes a lot of sense).
- Lee gets Damon to pop up, and not only does he catch it himself (going against a very silly unwritten rule of baseball) but kind of pulls a hybrid Rickey Henderson 1-handed catch/Hap Felsch basket catch). Very pimp. Lee is rapidly moving up the chart of my favorite players, also partially because of that wicked ass curveball that I somehow didn't realize he had.
- It's now clear that I'm rooting heavily for the Phillies, which makes sense since I kind of adopted them as my NL team after I went to a game at Citizen's Bank Park for a work thing. I wasn't expected Yankee hatred to bubble to the surface, but here it is. It wasn't until I started picturing the articles and reactions if they won that my blood started to boil. Please don't let the Yankees win, it's going to be disgusting.
- CC walks Francisco to lead off the inning, but gets a double play and another easy out. He's at 113 pitches, so is probably done for the night. That was a big chance to get a couple more, hopefully it doesn't kill them, because that Philly bullpen is questionable at best. Luckily kick ass Cliff Lee is only at about 86, two more innings and then hand it over to Lidge (and close your eyes and pray).
- One other thing I forget to mention from the Wolves game (currently losing 87-79), is that Terrence Williams, formerly of Louisville and now on the Nets, is going to be an absolute stud. The announcer called him a point guard trapped in a linebacker's body, and that's a pretty apt description. He currently has 15 points and 10 boards, and was unstoppable when I was watching (Brook Lopez has 27 and 14, but he's a weirdo and the Wolves don't have anything resembling a center, so I'm not impressed).
- Holy crap Natalie Portman is on Top Chef (which we are watching, I'm watching the game on an internet feed) and oh my goodness is she hot. This isn't quite like seeing her live, but she's not in a movie role and she is just amazing looking. I always had her near the top of my list, but I have kind of forgotten about her lately. No more. She is rapidly moving up my list of hottest chicks. Look:
- Posada check swings a little nubber down the line which Lee picks up, and instead of just tagging Posada out, he tags him by slapping him on the ass with his glove. Man crush picking up major steam. Right now if I have to choose Portman or Lee, I'm going Portman, but it's closer than you'd like to think or I'd like to admit.
- Yankees close Sabathia's day out: 7ip, 4 hits, 3 walks, 2 runs, and 6 Ks. Pretty good day of work outside of the two Utley ding-dongs. Of course, he's also lucky none of those walks came around to score. The Yanks are going Hughes here, and I'm guessing Rivera in the 9th, so the Phils better hope they don't somehow lose this lead.
- NOTE: Natalie Portman's favorite color is purple. This will come in handy when I commence with the stalking. And she just made a "prick in your mouth" joke. Be still my heart.
- Sorry. During all that Rollins walked and stole second, followed by another walk to Victorino, and we're going to Damaso Marte. Nice job Hughes, I'm glad you're not a Twin. That would be pretty sweet if Utley knocks out a third one here. I'm also legitimately surprised Girardi isn't giving the ball to Mariano here - I thought that was always the M.O.
- Utley whiffs on three called strikes that all might have been outside, but the important thing here is that somehow the Wolves won 95-93. I have no idea what happened, but now I'm going to have to watch the damn news. You win this round, Don Shelby.
- God, watching this show she has such a wonderful personality, too, and she's smart and a Harvard grad. Two real issues here: 1) she's a flaming liberal and 2) she's a vegetarian. I don't think it would work for us to get married, but Natalie, if you want to have a little fling shoot me an email, girl.
- Robertson comes in and walks Werth after Howard flew out. Bases loaded, two outs for Ibanez. Still surprised we aren't getting Rivera.
- Ibanez comes through and knocks in two, looks like Rivera would have been a better move than leaving in Dave frreaking Robertson. I think Girardi should be fired.
- Cliffy back out for the 8th, just under 100 pitches. If he can handle this one quick we might be looking at a complete game shut out.
- Two pitches, and a ground ball up the middle he fields behind his back. I don't think I even need to say it.
- Lee whiffs Swisher for the second out. I wonder if he's still making the team laugh and doing fancy handshakes while they continue walking out there and looking like clowns against Superman Lee.
- Third out is an easy fly out. Lee at something like 107 pitches. Hopefully they give him the chance to finish it.
- Phillies pick up two more on a bunch of hits, and it would have been three put apparently the "Flyin' Hawaiian" is slow as shit. 6-0 going into the bottom of the ninth.
- Two bloop hits and a Jimmy Rollins error and the shutout is gone, but Lee finishes it out and the Phils lead 1-0, and this was just a stud performance by Cliff Lee. I think he's rocketing up my list of favorite baseball players.
Tuesday, April 7, 2009
Weekend Review
WHO WAS AWESOME
1. Ty Lawson. I could just put the whole UNC team here after an incredible run through the NCAA tournament where they were never really challenged, but I want to recognize Lawson because I've dogged him pretty good in the past. He's really made a huge leap in his point guard play from last year. He's still not the best shooter, although he's getting better (shot 50% from three in the tournament) but he's figured out how to completely take over a game from the point position without having to score, and he did it again last night, culminating in the Final Four MVP award (I assume, I didn't look it up). Lawson really elevated his game in the tournament, outdoing his season averages in scoring, rebounding, stealing, and assisting while turning it over less. I don't usually change my mind about a player - ever - but this is a rare exception. Congrats to the Heels, and thank god we don't have watch/hear about Hansbrough anymore.
2. Derek Lowe. I think I described Lowe signing with the Braves using words like retread and patchwork, and might even have thrown a washed up in there, I don’t remember for sure. In any case, Lowe proved me wrong in the Braves’ 4-1 opening day win over the defending champion Phillies (who trotted out Greg Myers instead of Cole Hamels for some reason that I don’t want to look up). Lowe was masterful, going 8 innings and only allowing 2 hits, naturally walking nobody and striking out four. When Lowe is on, he does exactly what he did on Sunday night – doesn’t strike out many, but walks zero and gets a lot of ground balls (the Phillies hit 13 ground balls compared to 7 in the air). I’m not quite ready to start believing in Atlanta, because I still think Javier Vazquez sucks, but it looks like Lowe might have at least one quality season left in him.
3. NY Mets Bullpen. The biggest reason for the Met collapses the past two years have een their shitty bullpen, culminating last year in the most blown leads in the entire major leagues. Instead of standing pat and signing some journeyman and pretending like it’s going to help (cough, cough) they went out and did something about it. They signed single-season save record holder Francisco Rodriguez away from the Angels to close, and then helped their middle relief by making a trade for Seattle closer J.J. Putz, also getting set up man Sean Green in the deal. On Monday, that paid off, as the three new acquisitions combined to toss 3 and 1/3 innings of scoreless ball, giving up just one baserunner and striking out two, giving Johan Santana the win. It is probably pretty awesome to have a GM who actually will do something.
4. Travis Snider. As bad as my call on Cliff Lee looks right now (more on that later), my call on Snider as AL ROY looks just as brilliant. Snider was one of the top prospects in baseball for the last couple of years, and looked the part when he was called up by Toronto at the end of last season, hitting .301/.338/.466 with 2 homers in 79 at bats. Yesterday, he started his ROY campaign with a bang, going 2-4 with a solo homerun off Tiger ace Justin Verlander. Keep an eye on this kid.
5. Felix Hernandez. I could just have easily put the Twins' offense in the who sucked column instead, and specifically Mike Cuddyer who struck out three times against Hernandez and pretty much looked overmatched (yes he had a hit and an rbi, but it was not pretty and leaving three guys on base negates that). Instead, I'll let the optimism flow for a bit longer, and credit The King with an excellent outing. He's been a bit of an enigma in his short career, bursting on the scene as a rookie in 2005 and looking awesome, then regressing a bit the last three years, being a good pitcher, but not living up to the promise he showed that first half season. That being said, he's as talented as anybody throwing the ball, and maybe this is the start of the year he puts it all together. Or maybe the Twins' offense is as bad without Mauer as I feared. If they can't get anything going against Bedard tonight, it's time to worry.
WHO SUCKED
1. A.J. Price. Before the MSU/UCONN game tipped off, Bogart, Snake, and myself were at the Dayton bar and were discussing who would be on our all-tournament team so far. I picked A.J. Price as one of my guards, which I suppose doomed him to his horrid performance against the Spartans. Price’s numbers were bad enough, 5-20 shooting, 2 turnovers and just one assist, but watching him play was even worse. Adrien and Thabeet were really able to dominate the Spartan big guys inside, but Price continually decided not to get them the ball, and instead insisted on trying to bull his way into the lane and kept forcing up some brutally bad shots. I think he was just trying to draw fouls and get to the line, but the refs were calling the game Big Ten style and he just looked like a fool. When he wasn’t busy looking like an idiot, he was lazily walking around the three point line – I seriously watching him an entire UCONN possession where he never even moved as fast as a jog. Just a really horrible game and effort from a guy who was having a good tournament that cost his team the game – yes, I am blaming the UCONN loss entirely on Price.
2. Cliff Lee. A lot of people looked at Cliff Lee’s incredible numbers last year and decided he had to have been a fluke. A lot of people figured a mediocre pitcher couldn’t suddenly make the leap Lee made to win the AL Cy Young award last year and then keep it up, and he’d come crashing back to earth. They saw his 1.10 WHIP (vs career of 1.31) and 2.54 ERA (career = 4.1) and his 5.0 K/BB ratio (career = 2.5) and figured it was an aberration. Not me. I was convinced his pin point control and cerebral approach was more Greg Maddux-like, and he’d sustain this success. Once again, I’m an idiot. Lee got completely rocked by Texas yesterday, barely getting himself out of the fifth and finishing with a line of 5ip, 10 hits, 1 walk, and 7 earned runs given up, including a three-run homer by Hank Blalock. I drafted him in two fantasy leagues where people were avoiding taking him, assuming he would suck this year. Looks like they were right and now I’m screwed.
3. C.C. Sabathia. The Yankees' big, fat, offseason pickup, Sabathia got rocked yesterday by the lowly Orioles to the tune of 4 and 1/3 innings, 8 hits, and 6 earned runs. It wasn't so much those numbers that are scary, although they are, but even worse, Sabathia walked 5 and struck out nobody. Not a single one. For a pretty good strikeout pitcher throughout his career, that's warning sign number 1. Warning sign number 2 was the way the game unfolded, if you watched. The problem was that he couldn't get his fastball by anybody. The batters he faced were always able to at least foul it off, and once they realized they didn't need to be scared of the heater, they were able to lay off his slop slider he usually uses to get batters to chase, leading to the five walks. It's early, obviously, but after one game this is a bad sign for the Yanks.
4. Jason Motte. If you play fantasy baseball, you know that one of the toughest categories to figure out is saves. Not only are you never really sure when to draft the closers, but only a handful of teams have a real, established guy who you know will be in the role all year, so you're always looking for someone you can draft late. When Motte dominated his way through spring training and was anointed the Cardinals closer, it was a boon to those who pay attention to these kind of things. Most people don't know who he is, so he was available pretty late and it sounded like not only was he basically given the closer role for the year, but that he would dominate. Oops. Motte came into yesterday's game against the Pirates looking to shut the door with a 4-2 lead. By the time he finally got out of the top of the ninth, the Pirates led 6-4, and Motte had given up four hits and four earned runs to earn the loss and blown save. Perhaps he wasn't as huge a late steal as I (and many others) anticipated. Sorry Bogart.
5. Chris Allen. I can't bring myself to put the Spartans here as a whole, since they beat two #1 seeds just to get to this position, even though they turned it over 21 times and generally gave themselves no chance to win last night, but I can single out one player who had an awful final four, and that's the most dangerous player in the Big Ten, Chris Allen. Allen, who can usually score ten points in about 30 seconds if you aren't paying attention, couldn't hit anything in the final two games, going a combined 1-14 from the floor in the two games, including 0-9 from three, wrapping up a tournament where he shot just over 25% from the field. Of course, this will probably just make him angrier and he will end up being the runner-up for Big Ten Player of the Year next season (JaJuan Johnson has that one in the bag).
Finally, in case you missed it, I'll leave you with One Shining Moment from last night. Yes, it's already on line.
God I love that.
Monday, September 29, 2008
Weekend Review
WHO WAS AWESOME
1. Tubby Smith. As reported below, Tubby signed Rodney Williams over the weekend, adding to an already impressive class that includes Royce White and Justin Cobbs. A top 20 player, a top 100 player, and an unknown in Cobbs. He's only ranked two stars by scout and three by rivals, and doesn't even make the positional rankings. ESPN ranks him as the #49 point guard in the country. To be honest, if this sounds like a Monson kind of recruit - but I'm not worried. I have no problem giving Tubby the benefit of the doubt here, and trust that he sees something that maybe nobody else does.
2. CC Sabathia. Pitching his third straight start for the Breweres on three days rest, he tossed a four-hit shutout against the Cubs to get the Brewers into the playoffs for the first time since 1982. Sabathia finished at 11-2 with the Brewers with an ERA of 1.65 and WHIP of 1.00, validating the Brewers front office and their one year rental of him.
3. Scott Baker. Overshadowed by Sabathia is Scott Baker's performance, which has no convinced me that yes, he is an excellent big game pitcher. Hopefully we get to see him pitch again this year.
4. Camilo Villegas. Not bad, taking the last two tournaments of the FedEx Cup playoffs, finishing in second place to Vijay Singh and cashing $3 million to go along with another $1.26 for winning the tour championship. If it weren't for a missed cut at the Barclay's, Villegas would be taking home the 10 mil after finishing 3rd, 1st, 1st to close out the year.
5. Me. Well, more accurately me, Theory, Dr. Acula, LunnDale, and Pee Wee. Since Mrs. and Baby W are out of town, we all headed up to Aitkin to spend a weekend at my parents cabin. At the Meat Raffle Saturday we were all-stars, winning nine times and bringing home a haul of six NY strips, six Ribeyes, 3 lbs. of bacon, a huge package of hot dogs, two big packages of chicken. That's some good eatin'.
WHO SUCKED
1. The AL Central. I mean, come on guys, somebody wants to go the playoffs, no? I'm scared if they get to the playoff, so I'm really hoping Detroit somehow manages to knock of the Sox today (in a game I might be live blogging since I'm working from home today). I just don't like Blackburn going out and pitching at Comiskey (whatever). Go Tigers!
2. Gopher Football. Losing 34-21 at Columbus is nothing to be ashamed of if the game was competitive. But it wasn't. Two garbage touchdowns in the fourth quarter make the score look better than it was. They covered the spread, so it's not a complete disaster, but any fans who managed to talk themselves into thinking this team was special in any way had a rude awakening. Or are delusional.
3. USC Football. Speaking of disasters, the Trojans managed to throw up all over themselves, losing at Oregon State for the second straight time. With the number 1 ranking and a craptacular Pac 10 even worse than the Big 10, USC had the red carpet rolled out all the way to the championship game. Oops.
4. Survivor League Football. Massive carnage in survivor leagues this week, as both Denver and Dallas went down - the two most popular picks of the week.
5. NY Mets. Another year, another collapse, another no playoff result.
1. Tubby Smith. As reported below, Tubby signed Rodney Williams over the weekend, adding to an already impressive class that includes Royce White and Justin Cobbs. A top 20 player, a top 100 player, and an unknown in Cobbs. He's only ranked two stars by scout and three by rivals, and doesn't even make the positional rankings. ESPN ranks him as the #49 point guard in the country. To be honest, if this sounds like a Monson kind of recruit - but I'm not worried. I have no problem giving Tubby the benefit of the doubt here, and trust that he sees something that maybe nobody else does.
2. CC Sabathia. Pitching his third straight start for the Breweres on three days rest, he tossed a four-hit shutout against the Cubs to get the Brewers into the playoffs for the first time since 1982. Sabathia finished at 11-2 with the Brewers with an ERA of 1.65 and WHIP of 1.00, validating the Brewers front office and their one year rental of him.
3. Scott Baker. Overshadowed by Sabathia is Scott Baker's performance, which has no convinced me that yes, he is an excellent big game pitcher. Hopefully we get to see him pitch again this year.
4. Camilo Villegas. Not bad, taking the last two tournaments of the FedEx Cup playoffs, finishing in second place to Vijay Singh and cashing $3 million to go along with another $1.26 for winning the tour championship. If it weren't for a missed cut at the Barclay's, Villegas would be taking home the 10 mil after finishing 3rd, 1st, 1st to close out the year.
5. Me. Well, more accurately me, Theory, Dr. Acula, LunnDale, and Pee Wee. Since Mrs. and Baby W are out of town, we all headed up to Aitkin to spend a weekend at my parents cabin. At the Meat Raffle Saturday we were all-stars, winning nine times and bringing home a haul of six NY strips, six Ribeyes, 3 lbs. of bacon, a huge package of hot dogs, two big packages of chicken. That's some good eatin'.
WHO SUCKED
1. The AL Central. I mean, come on guys, somebody wants to go the playoffs, no? I'm scared if they get to the playoff, so I'm really hoping Detroit somehow manages to knock of the Sox today (in a game I might be live blogging since I'm working from home today). I just don't like Blackburn going out and pitching at Comiskey (whatever). Go Tigers!
2. Gopher Football. Losing 34-21 at Columbus is nothing to be ashamed of if the game was competitive. But it wasn't. Two garbage touchdowns in the fourth quarter make the score look better than it was. They covered the spread, so it's not a complete disaster, but any fans who managed to talk themselves into thinking this team was special in any way had a rude awakening. Or are delusional.
3. USC Football. Speaking of disasters, the Trojans managed to throw up all over themselves, losing at Oregon State for the second straight time. With the number 1 ranking and a craptacular Pac 10 even worse than the Big 10, USC had the red carpet rolled out all the way to the championship game. Oops.
4. Survivor League Football. Massive carnage in survivor leagues this week, as both Denver and Dallas went down - the two most popular picks of the week.
5. NY Mets. Another year, another collapse, another no playoff result.
Monday, July 7, 2008
Fat Pitcher goes to Fatland (+ some gopher news)
Still in Utah, but I actually have a little time to myself so I want to touch on a couple of things right quick.
First, since Snacks mentioned the all-star teams in a comment below, I have a comment or two about the all-star rosters. Naturally, the big markets like New York, Chicago, and Boston are going to be stacked because more home town voters = more players voted in. But what is bizarre is if you look at the NL voting, the Brewers are represented all over the place. Fielder #2 at 1B, Rickie Weeks #3 at second, Bill Hall #4 at third base, JJ Hardy and Jason Kendall in second place at short and catcher, and Ryan Braun, Corey Hart, and Mike Cameron all in the top six in the outfield with Braun the leading vote getter.
How does that happen? And I know they're decent this year and just got better by adding Fatbathia, but some of those guys straight up suck this year. Weeks is batting .208 with an OPS+ of 79 right now, and received more votes than the Marlins Dan Uggla who is OPSing .995 and is second in the majors with 23 home runs. Kendall hasn't been good in five years, while Brian McCann is having a tremendous season, not to mention Russell Martin, who didn't even crack the top five despite having three middle names, one of which is Coltrane, and a .305 BA. And Bill Hall is hitting .227 and has already struck out 73 times.
It's obvious that it is time to take the all-star balloting away from the public, they are getting to be bigger and bigger idiots each year. But you clearly can't let the manager or players name the team, seeing as how Jason Varitek was voted to the all star squad by his fellow players despite a line of .218/.300/.358, which is puntoian. There aren't a ton of good catching options outside of Mauer in the AL, but both A.J. Pierzynski and Ivan Rodriguez are OPSing around .750 and hitting around .300 and both deserve it much, much, much more than Varitek. Funny how I-Rod has made it many times with worse numbers in the past.
So, yeah, the All-Star game rosters are pretty much a joke, and the fact that the outcome of this game actually has an effect on the regular season is completely ridiculous.
Secondly, and more Brewery, I LOVE how they went after Sabathia to make a big push for this season. It's become pretty clear they are going to lose Ben Sheets after this season, so why not go after Sabathia for the second half of the year and hope that one-two punch at the front of the rotation and take you to a title. In the past we saw how devastating having two top shelf pitchers can be in a playoff series with the D-Backs and Johnson and Schilling, and if the Brewers can get to the playoffs they could do some serious damage. Bravo on having the balls to pull this off.
So who is coming to the Indians? Weirdly, along with the three players coming over there is the famous "player to be named later." This strikes me as super weird in this kind of trade. PTBNL's seem to be the kind of guys who are thrown into smaller, less high profile trades, and I can't ever remember hearing of one being involved in a trade of this magnitude.
The jewel of the trade, the "Carlos Gomez" is OF Matt LaPorta, the number 1 prospect in the Brewers' system and the #31 prospect in all of baseball at the beginning of the season according to baseball prospectus. He's done nothing to hurt his rankings, as he's been mashing through double-A pitching this year to the tune of .291/.404/.584 with 20 homeruns in 296 at bats. He hits for average, he hits for power, and he has the discipline to walk around 100 times in a season. The scouting reports say his defense is a bit of an adventure, but I am NOT looking forward to the Twins facing him year after year. He may be a September call-up for the Indians this year, with an eye towards next season.
The other good piece in the trade is RHP Robert Bryson, ranked the #10 prospect in the Brewers' system. It's still not clear if he's better suited to a starter or reliever role, but Bryson is intriguing with wicked stuff - a mid-90s fastball to go with a power slider. In 109 career minor league innings he's struck out 143 batters between rookie ball and class A and has avoided the control issues that plague a lot of young power pitchers. He's been nearly unhittable, and could very well be the Indians' closer of the future.
The last "prospect" included is pitcher Zack Jackson, who is mostly just filler. He's not a real stellar prospect, but who knows, he could find work as a reliable middle reliever.
So, if your curious, the Twins definitely got a better haul for Johan, and it's not close. Actually it kind of looks like the Indians may have jumped the gun a bit here and sold themselves a bit short. I would have expected a bit more coming their way for CC, but as shown by the Santana trade, you don't get quite as much as you'd think.
Quick Gopher Update: Rodney Williams has narrowed his list to Minnesota, Iowa State, Kansas, Miami, and UCONN. He also says he plans to narrow his list further after this weekend's Peach Jam. Royce White plays with Williams, and has said he is working on getting Rodney to join him in committing to the Gophers. Keep up the good work Royce, make it happen. In point guard news, Mfon Udofia reports Georgia Tech leads for his services, while the Gophers are said to be in the lead to land Johnnie Lacy. Let's hope they get one of the two.
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