Since we're at the symbolic mid-year point for the 2011 MLB season, I might as well give you some thoughts to chew on from my super smart brain. I'm going to go with the pleasant resultss so far this year today, and tomorrow I'll toss out the big disappointments. As usual, we'll be covering the entire league as well as your local nine. In no particular order:
1. Michael Cuddyer. I wrote him up glowingly just a week ago, but I'm just stunned by my own turnaround him. Thanks to his knack for picking up his hitting when the team most needs his bat as well as his willingness to play wherever and whenever he's needed (unlike many others on this sissified team) I've come around on everything I used to hate. The two things I hated most were his inability to law off the outside slider in the dirt when he had 2 strikes even though he knows it's coming and his media-whore-ishness.
At this point, however, I've just come to accept that almost everybody has a hole in their swing and that's just his, and I'm beginning to realize his mediawhoreishness is really just attempt to be a team leader. Seeing how Joe Mauer is an emotionless robot and Justin Morneau usually can no longer remember what day it is or what his name is, Cuddy's tried to become the leader the team needs. Since he's really just a country bumpkin at heart it doesn't really come off all that well but at least he's trying.
Hopefully they trade him for a prospect and then resign him at a reduced price next season. Although I want Kubel back as well. So I guess they need to trade Delmon Young, whose value is at an all-time low, and Denard Span, who looks like he may never play again. This team can't even build a roster correctly.
2. Jose Bautista. Let me guess. You, like everybody else, figured Jose Bautista for a Brady Anderson like fluke last year, whether it was due to steroids or just some weird convergence of craziness or something. I did, but after his start to this year - leading the majors with 31 homers already - I'm sold. Maybe I'm really stupid, and obviously it's not out of the questions that he's getting pharmacological help for two years rather than just the one, but I'm now a believer. Maybe I just want to believe. I don't know. It's not like this kind of neither never happens - it's just rare.
3. Ben Revere. I have to admit I was never really all that excited for Ben Revere. All I ever heard was how he was basically the next Juan Pierre, and statistically Pierre isn't all that great. He gets a lot of hits but makes a lot of outs because he never walks and he's fast with no power. I wasn't interested. But now that Revere is here, I get the good stuff.
Yeah, he'd still be better if he walked a bit more often and unless he develops some power he's going to struggle because the outfielders, especially the left-fielders, can play him shallow and take away that slap single to left, but he's fun to watch, no doubt. Incredible fast, maybe the fastest Twin on the bases I can remember along with Guzman and Gomez, hits well enough, can steal bases, and is the best defensive CFer the team has had since Puckett. I'm on board. Whether he can ever develop into a true leadoff type hitter or will be more doomed to be a #9 is yet to be seen, but his downside is an exciting bottom of the order guy with his upside an all-star lead off hitter. What's not to love?
4. Adrian Gonzalez. Remember how Gonzalez put up like sickening good numbers hitting in the grand canyon that is Petco Park while being surrounded in the lineup by guys like Chase Headley and Ryan Klesko and everybody said that he'd kill the league after he signed with Boston? Well it's happening. .354 to lead the league with 77 rbi to lead the league and 17 homers (ranks 10th). If you're curious, a season with a .350 BA, 25 homers, and 120 rbi has only been done three times since 2000 (Pujols, Larry Walker, Magglio Ordonez) and not once since 2007. Pretty crazy stuff.
5. Justin Verlander. Speaking of crazy, Verlander is having an absolute monster year of a career year, which is pretty amazing considering he's already finished in the top-11 in Cy Young voting four times in his six year career. His ERA of 2.15 is a full run better than his previous career best while his WHIP of 0.87 is 0.3 better than his career high and his 12 wins so far are nearly 2/3rds of the way to his high of 19 (that's right, somehow Verlander has never won 20 in a season). Looking at the nerd stats he's pitching nearly identically to how he usually does style wise, but the results have been better so we can expect Verlander to come back towards his career averages a bit (which is good for Twins' fans) but he's still a damn good pitcher either way wit the inside track on his first Cy Young win. I really really wish the Twins could find a way to get somebody like this someday. Come on, Kyle Gibson.
6. Jose Reyes. The Mets aren't very good or anything, but have been slightly better than expected aat around .500 and the biggest reason is that Jose Reyes has been completely and totally ridiculous. He's currently leading the NL in batting average at .354 which is made even more ridiculous by the fact that he was hitting just .310 on May 22nd but has hit .413 in the 34 games since with multiple hits in 22 of those 34 games. Basically with a crappy team whose #2 and #3 players are hurt in David Wright and Johan Santana they're in a position to get a huge return if they can find a trade partner for Reyes. He's a free agent so they need to move him (or sign him I guess since they're a New York team). Maybe the Twins could get him for a Mauer + Casilla combo. Do it.
7. Paul Konerko. Sort of lost in all the hub-bub over Jose Bautista transforming from 4th outfielder to most feared hitter in the AL has been Konerko's transformation from washed up old man to 2nd most feared hitter in the AL. Although I'm sure all Twins' fans have noticed. From 2004-2006 he was incredible with 3 top-22 MVP years, but then started a skid that looked like it was pretty much the final slide of his career. In fact, for 3 straight years from 2007-2009 he was pretty average and an average hitting first baseman isn't very good. But then last year - boom - .312 with 39 homers and he's continued it this year by hitting .319 with 22 HRs to this point. Actually, know that I think about, Konerko's resurgence should probably be more suspicious than Bautista's transformation, but it just isn't because he's a rare commodity (a non-douchey White Sock) and it's fun to say Konerko Konorked it.
8. Scott Baker. With all the hand-wringing over the Twins', and particularly over the state of the starting pitching, somehow it's been lost that Baker is having a career year. His ERA at the break is just 3.01, ranking him tenth in the AL, which is a full run better than his career mark. And, after an uncharacteristic start to the season where he was struggling to find the strike zone he's now got his walk rate down back where it traditionally belongs and is doing it while putting up a career high strikeout rate. Basically he appears to really be coming into his own and he's doing it by doing things he can control: strikeout rate, walk rate, and home run rate (which is down this year). He's shown too many flashes in the past for me to be straight up excited by this and I have to say there's a big part of me that's just waiting for the regression, but I'm definitely mildly intrigued.
9. Michael Pineda. Credit goes to Snake for drafting this guy for our fantasy team, but he's been an absolute gem. His 8 wins lead all AL rookie pitchers and he also leads in WHIP at 1.04, ERA at 3.03, and strikeouts at 103. In short, he's been a complete rookie stud who is the leading candidate to win AL Rookie-of-the-Year and a fabulous compliment to Felix Hernandez, giving Seattle an excellent 1-2 punch at the top of the rotation. Unfortunately outside of those two, Justin Smoak, Ichiro, and Dustin Ackley the entire team is worse than the worst Twin. Yeah, for real.
10. Pittsburgh Pirates. Speaking of teams that are usually really bad you have to hand it to the Pirates who, at 47-43, have a decent chance to finish over .500 for the first time in 18 years, and actually sent three players to the All-Star game. Since they hired Neal Huntington as GM in 2007 they've been very patient and have worked to build their farm system and it's now starting to pay off (not unlike what the Royals are doing). They've mainly worked through the draft (picking up Andrew McCutchen, Neil Walker, Pedro Alvarez) that way, but have also done well in trades, nabbing Jose Tabata from the Yankees (in the Xavier Nady/Damaso Marte trade that also netted Jeff Karstens), Ronny Cedeno from the Mariners for Jack Wilson, as well as starters James McDonald (from the Dodgers) and Charlie Morton (from the Cubs) for Octavio Dotel and Nate McLouth and they signed all-star Kevin Correia as a free agent and grabbed all-star Joel Hanrahan from the Nats for nothing. They're definitely building something in Pittsburgh. Whether they can go any further or if this is it, it's gotta be exciting if you're a Pirate fan. Assuming those still exist.
Showing posts with label Scott Baker. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Scott Baker. Show all posts
Monday, July 11, 2011
Wednesday, August 11, 2010
Six Very Important Things this Morning 8.11.2010
It makes me sad that I didn't do a 6 Things on 8/9/10, but Gopher business takes precedence. At least when that's what I'm in the mood for.
1. First place baby! Love it! Beating the Sox in their house to take over first is great, of course, but to do it in game one of a series and to do it in an emphatic fashion could be huge. Will the Sox go into a huge tailspin, get swept, and become a non-factor the rest of the year? Probably not, but they might. And we at least know the Twins won't.
Scott Baker gave us exactly what he is capable of, electric stuff that looks unhittable mixed with terrible mistakes that get hit 500 feet, and all in one game, but he pitched well enough to get the win thanks to an offensive outburst that saw dingers hit by Thome, Mauer, Hardy, Cuddy, and Kubel. This was exactly how they should have won this game. Ripping the Sox pitching, and shutting down (mostly) the Sox bats. This was the biggest advantage they had in starting pitching though, so it's not exactly a series won just yet. Perkins/Danks is almost certainly a win for Chicago, so it will come down to Liriano/Floyd. Either way, I'm pretty sure one team is walking out of here with a 1 game lead, and we got ourselves a dogfight.
Poor Detroit.
2. Anybody else getting officially worried here? Justin Morneau was supposed to travel with the team to Chicago, not to play, just to travel and get some workoutting in. No big deal, you'd think. But that's been called off and he'll stay behind in Minnesota, while Bill Smith "declined to give details about how Morneau has been feeling." What? He's been out since July 7th, well over a month at this point, and we're still not giving out details? Seriously, I'm done making jokes or calling him a girl and/or sissy for not playing, and officially moving into "very very very worried" territory. We've all heard the comparison's to Corey Koskie, and at first they seemed quite over blown and "sky is falling" type stuff, but at this point - ugh, I don't know, but it certainly isn't normal to miss this much time for a head injury. Ask Trent Green.
3. So why even have practice then? I know this blog is 40% Twins, 40% Gophers, 15% other sports happenings from around the world, and 5% bad movies, but I do pay attention and am a fan of the Vikings. So with that I ask, what is the point of even having a training camp right now? Percy Harvin has missed the last 9 days due to a combination of his mother's death and his ongoing Migraine issues (can't we just let the man have his weed?). Sidney Rice has yet to practice due to either a hamstring issue or a contract dispute, depending on who you ask. Brett Favre is, well, I assume you know all about Peter Primadonna right now, and I heard on the radio today Adrian Peterson just now was able to go full speed - no word on how many times he fumbled in non-contract drills. So really, this offense is going to be a mess. At least it probably makes the defense feel better. Kind of like a struggling NBA team gets to play the Timberwolves.
4. I really should have mentioned this before. If you're a Gopher football fan, and why wouldn't you be - Rose Bowl, baby - The Daily Gopher is doing a really excellent rundown, position by position, of how this year's team breaks down in comparison to last year's team. Let's hope the answer is "better." And if I'm being completely honest here, I didn't read all of them. I read a couple but it was difficult because I don't really know any of the players. I think I could name about five guys on the Gopher football team, and odds are at least half of them don't play anymore.
5. He probably just should have kept going with the "tired arm" thing. Phenom and super stud Stephen Strasburg made his return from the DL last night, although he probably shouldn't have. He got knocked around pretty good, lasting just 4 and 1/3 innings (a career low) and allowing six runs (a career high). Not a great combo. He did keep up his nice strikeout totals with four in those just over four innings, and that's what I'm going to choose to pay attention to rather than all that other blabbity blah. Those are just numbers, anyway, numbers can't tell you the whole story. He's clearly still dealing with some arm issues, because there's no way the real Strasburg walks somebody named Logan Morrison. I would refuse to live in such a world, so sometimes I have to ignore certain facts in order to maintain my sanity. I'm like Shelley Duvalle in the Shining. I'm just going to keep ignoring any problems until I get smacked in the melon with a baseball bat.
6. I don't have a link for this. I don't have a link or any way to prove this and it would have zero impact on the Gophers so I'm not going to spend a lot of time on it, but there is some speculation among people I know, some who have some insight into things, that Myck Kabongo, class of 2011 point guard who committed to Texas way back in January 2009 and is ranked as the #7 overall player in the class by ESPN and #11 by Rivals, as well as the #2 point guard by both, is unhappy with Texas. Apparently he's not real pleased with how the Longhorns' season went last year, and there is a little bit of speculation that he may re-open his recruitment. Now I'd guess that nothing will come of this, and it's not like my sources are more than people like me who are fans who try to keep their fingers on the pulse, but I wanted to put it out there so I can look smart if anything actually happens. Plus sometimes where there's smoke, there's fire. Just ask David Koresh.
1. First place baby! Love it! Beating the Sox in their house to take over first is great, of course, but to do it in game one of a series and to do it in an emphatic fashion could be huge. Will the Sox go into a huge tailspin, get swept, and become a non-factor the rest of the year? Probably not, but they might. And we at least know the Twins won't.
Scott Baker gave us exactly what he is capable of, electric stuff that looks unhittable mixed with terrible mistakes that get hit 500 feet, and all in one game, but he pitched well enough to get the win thanks to an offensive outburst that saw dingers hit by Thome, Mauer, Hardy, Cuddy, and Kubel. This was exactly how they should have won this game. Ripping the Sox pitching, and shutting down (mostly) the Sox bats. This was the biggest advantage they had in starting pitching though, so it's not exactly a series won just yet. Perkins/Danks is almost certainly a win for Chicago, so it will come down to Liriano/Floyd. Either way, I'm pretty sure one team is walking out of here with a 1 game lead, and we got ourselves a dogfight.
Poor Detroit.
2. Anybody else getting officially worried here? Justin Morneau was supposed to travel with the team to Chicago, not to play, just to travel and get some workoutting in. No big deal, you'd think. But that's been called off and he'll stay behind in Minnesota, while Bill Smith "declined to give details about how Morneau has been feeling." What? He's been out since July 7th, well over a month at this point, and we're still not giving out details? Seriously, I'm done making jokes or calling him a girl and/or sissy for not playing, and officially moving into "very very very worried" territory. We've all heard the comparison's to Corey Koskie, and at first they seemed quite over blown and "sky is falling" type stuff, but at this point - ugh, I don't know, but it certainly isn't normal to miss this much time for a head injury. Ask Trent Green.
3. So why even have practice then? I know this blog is 40% Twins, 40% Gophers, 15% other sports happenings from around the world, and 5% bad movies, but I do pay attention and am a fan of the Vikings. So with that I ask, what is the point of even having a training camp right now? Percy Harvin has missed the last 9 days due to a combination of his mother's death and his ongoing Migraine issues (can't we just let the man have his weed?). Sidney Rice has yet to practice due to either a hamstring issue or a contract dispute, depending on who you ask. Brett Favre is, well, I assume you know all about Peter Primadonna right now, and I heard on the radio today Adrian Peterson just now was able to go full speed - no word on how many times he fumbled in non-contract drills. So really, this offense is going to be a mess. At least it probably makes the defense feel better. Kind of like a struggling NBA team gets to play the Timberwolves.
4. I really should have mentioned this before. If you're a Gopher football fan, and why wouldn't you be - Rose Bowl, baby - The Daily Gopher is doing a really excellent rundown, position by position, of how this year's team breaks down in comparison to last year's team. Let's hope the answer is "better." And if I'm being completely honest here, I didn't read all of them. I read a couple but it was difficult because I don't really know any of the players. I think I could name about five guys on the Gopher football team, and odds are at least half of them don't play anymore.
5. He probably just should have kept going with the "tired arm" thing. Phenom and super stud Stephen Strasburg made his return from the DL last night, although he probably shouldn't have. He got knocked around pretty good, lasting just 4 and 1/3 innings (a career low) and allowing six runs (a career high). Not a great combo. He did keep up his nice strikeout totals with four in those just over four innings, and that's what I'm going to choose to pay attention to rather than all that other blabbity blah. Those are just numbers, anyway, numbers can't tell you the whole story. He's clearly still dealing with some arm issues, because there's no way the real Strasburg walks somebody named Logan Morrison. I would refuse to live in such a world, so sometimes I have to ignore certain facts in order to maintain my sanity. I'm like Shelley Duvalle in the Shining. I'm just going to keep ignoring any problems until I get smacked in the melon with a baseball bat.
6. I don't have a link for this. I don't have a link or any way to prove this and it would have zero impact on the Gophers so I'm not going to spend a lot of time on it, but there is some speculation among people I know, some who have some insight into things, that Myck Kabongo, class of 2011 point guard who committed to Texas way back in January 2009 and is ranked as the #7 overall player in the class by ESPN and #11 by Rivals, as well as the #2 point guard by both, is unhappy with Texas. Apparently he's not real pleased with how the Longhorns' season went last year, and there is a little bit of speculation that he may re-open his recruitment. Now I'd guess that nothing will come of this, and it's not like my sources are more than people like me who are fans who try to keep their fingers on the pulse, but I wanted to put it out there so I can look smart if anything actually happens. Plus sometimes where there's smoke, there's fire. Just ask David Koresh.
Sunday, June 20, 2010
Week in Review - 6/21/2010
Man, I am full. Full, full, full. I just finished up the most awesome steak ever. I actually cooked it on the grill, and I can generally cook a steak well but I've never quite nailed one the way I just did. Toss in my newly discovered steak rub - which makes Paul Prudhomme look like an amateur - and that was just the perfect way to wrap up a father's day that included a viewing of Toy Story 3, which was pretty good. You're the best ever, WonderbabyTM.
And thanks for everything, dad.
WHO WAS AWESOME
1. Scott Baker. This guy is maddening, isn't he? He always looks incredibly stressed on the mound and looks like he's going to cry if he gives up a run, and at times is wound up so tight he can't put the ball anywhere near where he wants to and gets destroyed and is extremely proficient in allowing home runs. Then, just when you think he's no better than an end of the rotation type, he busts off a game like Wednesday against Colorado when he allowed just 2 hits and struck out 12 over 7 innings, and was basically unhittably brilliant. He does this just enough to tease. A 3-hitter in 8 against Baltimore earlier this year. The two near no-hitters. Multiple games with more strikeouts than innings or 7 ips or better and 3 or less hits. When he's good, he's very good. Unfortunately he's about as consistent as Ron Artest's jumper.
2. Ron Artest. Speaking of Ron-Ron, you got to hand it to the guy, he got his title and game up huge in the biggest game of his career. He scored 20 (against a season average of 11), pulled down 5 boards, and grabbed 5 steals all while playing excellent defense on Paul Pierce who was just 5-15 in Game 7 and shot just 38% for the finals in Staples. Artest also hit the biggest shot of the game, and thus the series, with his 3-pointer with just a minute left in the game. Celtics were down by three, and with the shot clock winding down he let go with a heave despite being fairly well covered. It was the exact shot the Celtics would have wanted to see the Lakers take in that situation, it just happened to go in and now Artest is a hero. He's clearly insane, although I blame Stephen Jackson more for that brawl than Artest, but is there anything more entertaining than an insane person who is also deliriously happy? I think his post-game interview answered that question.
3. Wimpy, limp-wristed, slap-hitting Twins. Specifically, Matt Tolbert, Nick Punto, and Drew Butera. All three of those little wiener kids hit a home run this week. And Tolbert also kicked in two doubles and a triple this week. Punto overall hit .450 this week and had four multi-hit games. And even Butera hit .667 and is now the proud owner of a 2-game hitting streak. Those five total bases he had this week? Just one shy of his season total previously. I suppose getting production from anywhere is a good thing, even if it means Gardy is going to feel validated going with these clowns as often as he does, and assuring that we are going to be in for a lifetime supply of Matt Tolbert and Matt Tolbert clones as long as Billy Smith and Gardenhire are in charge. Oh joy.
4. Josh Johnson. You know, in all the Ubaldo hoo-ha, we seem to be missing out on the fact that Mr. Johnson is having a pretty damn good season for the Marlins. This week he pitched twice, going 7 innings on Tuesday, allowing just four hits and one run and striking out seven, and then following that up on Sunday by going 8 innings, allowing six hits and again one run and striking out nine. Those two starts drop his ERA to 1.80 with a WHIP of just 0.98. In exactly 100 innings he's struck out 98 while giving away just 26 walks and allowing only 72 hits. In short, he's having an insane, incredible, out of this world season. So try to remember that as Ubaldo marches toward 30 victories with an ERA under 1.00.
5. Chicago White Sox. I still hate them, and always will, but it's time to recognize that the Sox are playing pretty good ball. Yeah, I know their six game winning streak has come against the Pirates and the Nationals so it's not like they're playing world beaters, but the week prior including winning 2 of 3 against the Tigers, and they've cut the Twins lead over them to 5.5 games and are within four of the Tigers - close enough that it's maybe time to take notice. Their hitting is still pretty poor, but the pitching is starting to come around, with Danks and Peavy each pitching a gem and Gavin Floyd tossing two, and Freddy Garcia and Buehrle having a couple of nice outings as well. I'm not worried, because any team with Bobby Jenks as a closer isn't scary, but we might need to start paying some attention here.
WHO SUCKED
1. Nick Blackburn. Yuck. One and 2/3rds innings and 8 runs allowed? I praised Baker earlier for hitting one of the good squares on the wheel of random, and it seems Blackie hit the big double-zero. And that's why I really hope they trade for Cliff Lee, even if it includes trading Wilson Ramos. Baker, Blackburn, Pavano, and Slowey are all way too random and way too inconsistent. All of those guys have games where they get destroyed too often. Liriano is the only Twins pitcher who when he takes the mound you know you have a chance to win every time. Those other guys have too many games where they get destroyed early and the game is basically over. Blackburn just gave up 8 earned runs. Cliff Lee (since becoming good in 2008) has never allowed 8 earned runs in a game. He also pitched less than 4 innings in a game just three times in three years. Blackburn has done in it three of his last four games. Lee also has failed to pitch at least seven innings just once this year.
The current four are fine and they'll win some games and probably get you to the playoffs, but if the Twins want to make any kind of a run they need another top-shelf arm. Go get Cliff Lee, Mr. Smith. Just do it.
[UPDATE: Funny story. I wrote the above on Saturday morning. Not more like five hours later, Kevin Slowey helps hammer my point home by not getting out of the second inning, going just one and 2/3rds innings and giving up 7 runs. Which is less than Blackburn, so I guess that's an improvement. Please Billy. Go get Cliffy.]
2. Europe. A lot of people think Europe is full of smelly, non-showering drunks with bad teeth, but that's not what I'm referring to here. I actually enjoyed the hell out of Europe the one time we visited, so I have nothing but love for those weirdos. But I have to admit that they suck at soccer. And I'm talking about all of Europe, I'm talking about the big boys who were supposed to be title contenders and are now going to have to struggle to make it out of group play; specifically Germany, France, Spain, Italy, and England.
England tied with both the U.S. and Algeria. France tied Uruguay and got rolled by Mexico 2-0 and is almost certainly out of the playoffs or whatever they call the tournament part. Germany destroyed Australia 4-0 in their opener and was looking like a possible juggernaut, but then got beat by Serbia, and Spain, who was maybe the strongest European team, lost their opener to a bunch of mincing nancies from Switzerland. Italy might have had the biggest mismatch of the pool round, going against a pretty crappy New Zealand squad, but even they couldn't pick up a win, playing the Kiwis to a draw at 1-1. Even though the continent has some nice surprise teams like the Netherlands and Slovenia, it is an ugly, ugly Cup so far for the Euros. Probably a good time to invade. Pay attention Obama.
3. Manny Corpas. Corpas, the Rockies' current closer, had himself a pretty awesome weekend. He had been pretty solid, saving nine of his last ten opportunities, and not being over remotely shaky in those chances, giving up no runs and more than one hit just once. The this weekend happened. First, on Saturday, he came in to save a game against the Brewers only two give up two singles and then a game-tying home run to the suddenly superstar Corey Hart. Then, on Sunday, he had a chance to redeem himself, coming in again in the ninth, this time in a 1-1 tie against the Brew Crew. Just to mix it up a bit, he didn't even bother getting an out, giving up three doubles (amongst other things) on his way to allowing five runs and turning a tie game into a 6-1 loss. For christ's sake, Trevor Hoffman got people out in that game. Trevor. Hoffman.
4. Baltimore Orioles. God they're just so bad. They're now 19-50 (19-50!!!!!), and there aren't really any signs of getting better. Their two young pitchers of the future, Chris Tillman and Jake Arrieta went with their Blackburn/Slowey impersonation this weekend against the offensive juggernaut that is the Padres, with neither of them getting to the fourth, and Tillman's ERA is now over 8 and he's been shuttled off to the bullpen - a great, great way to help build the confidence of one your building blocks. And speaking of building blocks, two of the supposed biggest - Matt Wieters and Adam Jones - have been absolutely terrible this year. I don't know if it's still true, but I read somewhere earlier in the week that there are three teams in the NL whose pitchers have a collective slugging percentage greater than the Orioles' first basemen. Yuck. No matter what they try to do, it seems they'll never turn this thing around and get better. The curse of Jeffrey Maier lives on.
5. Dustin Johnson. It's not often you see someone totally dominate and then completely and completely fall apart all in one weekend. He raced out at Pebble, shooting 71-70 in the first two rounds, and then had a monster 66 on Saturday to set himself up with a three shot lead over Graeme McDowell and a five shot lead over Tiger, who was alone in third place. Since he had won the previous two tournaments held at Pebble Beach, it was looking like a possible runaway situation. He then came out on Sunday and threw up all over the place He triple-bogeyed the second, double-bogeyed the third, and bogeyed the fourth. He ended up with five more bogeys on the day (and zero birdies) to finish up with a +11 round of 82. Nightmare. The fall from the first three rounds to the final round would be just like the Ohio State football program turning into the Gophers. Yeah, it was seriously that bad.
And I want to give a special shout-out to Hunter Mahan. Thanks for making me look like an ass, jerkface. That's two majors this year, two guys I was absolutely convinced were going to win, and two guys who missed the cut, and not only missed it, but were basically already so far out of it after one day that they would have had to pull out a miraculous second round just to stay alive for the weekend. Obviously, neither of them did. You can now consider Mahan on my list along with Furyk. Betrayers! The both of them! J'Accuse!
And thanks for everything, dad.
WHO WAS AWESOME
1. Scott Baker. This guy is maddening, isn't he? He always looks incredibly stressed on the mound and looks like he's going to cry if he gives up a run, and at times is wound up so tight he can't put the ball anywhere near where he wants to and gets destroyed and is extremely proficient in allowing home runs. Then, just when you think he's no better than an end of the rotation type, he busts off a game like Wednesday against Colorado when he allowed just 2 hits and struck out 12 over 7 innings, and was basically unhittably brilliant. He does this just enough to tease. A 3-hitter in 8 against Baltimore earlier this year. The two near no-hitters. Multiple games with more strikeouts than innings or 7 ips or better and 3 or less hits. When he's good, he's very good. Unfortunately he's about as consistent as Ron Artest's jumper.
2. Ron Artest. Speaking of Ron-Ron, you got to hand it to the guy, he got his title and game up huge in the biggest game of his career. He scored 20 (against a season average of 11), pulled down 5 boards, and grabbed 5 steals all while playing excellent defense on Paul Pierce who was just 5-15 in Game 7 and shot just 38% for the finals in Staples. Artest also hit the biggest shot of the game, and thus the series, with his 3-pointer with just a minute left in the game. Celtics were down by three, and with the shot clock winding down he let go with a heave despite being fairly well covered. It was the exact shot the Celtics would have wanted to see the Lakers take in that situation, it just happened to go in and now Artest is a hero. He's clearly insane, although I blame Stephen Jackson more for that brawl than Artest, but is there anything more entertaining than an insane person who is also deliriously happy? I think his post-game interview answered that question.
3. Wimpy, limp-wristed, slap-hitting Twins. Specifically, Matt Tolbert, Nick Punto, and Drew Butera. All three of those little wiener kids hit a home run this week. And Tolbert also kicked in two doubles and a triple this week. Punto overall hit .450 this week and had four multi-hit games. And even Butera hit .667 and is now the proud owner of a 2-game hitting streak. Those five total bases he had this week? Just one shy of his season total previously. I suppose getting production from anywhere is a good thing, even if it means Gardy is going to feel validated going with these clowns as often as he does, and assuring that we are going to be in for a lifetime supply of Matt Tolbert and Matt Tolbert clones as long as Billy Smith and Gardenhire are in charge. Oh joy.
4. Josh Johnson. You know, in all the Ubaldo hoo-ha, we seem to be missing out on the fact that Mr. Johnson is having a pretty damn good season for the Marlins. This week he pitched twice, going 7 innings on Tuesday, allowing just four hits and one run and striking out seven, and then following that up on Sunday by going 8 innings, allowing six hits and again one run and striking out nine. Those two starts drop his ERA to 1.80 with a WHIP of just 0.98. In exactly 100 innings he's struck out 98 while giving away just 26 walks and allowing only 72 hits. In short, he's having an insane, incredible, out of this world season. So try to remember that as Ubaldo marches toward 30 victories with an ERA under 1.00.
5. Chicago White Sox. I still hate them, and always will, but it's time to recognize that the Sox are playing pretty good ball. Yeah, I know their six game winning streak has come against the Pirates and the Nationals so it's not like they're playing world beaters, but the week prior including winning 2 of 3 against the Tigers, and they've cut the Twins lead over them to 5.5 games and are within four of the Tigers - close enough that it's maybe time to take notice. Their hitting is still pretty poor, but the pitching is starting to come around, with Danks and Peavy each pitching a gem and Gavin Floyd tossing two, and Freddy Garcia and Buehrle having a couple of nice outings as well. I'm not worried, because any team with Bobby Jenks as a closer isn't scary, but we might need to start paying some attention here.
WHO SUCKED
1. Nick Blackburn. Yuck. One and 2/3rds innings and 8 runs allowed? I praised Baker earlier for hitting one of the good squares on the wheel of random, and it seems Blackie hit the big double-zero. And that's why I really hope they trade for Cliff Lee, even if it includes trading Wilson Ramos. Baker, Blackburn, Pavano, and Slowey are all way too random and way too inconsistent. All of those guys have games where they get destroyed too often. Liriano is the only Twins pitcher who when he takes the mound you know you have a chance to win every time. Those other guys have too many games where they get destroyed early and the game is basically over. Blackburn just gave up 8 earned runs. Cliff Lee (since becoming good in 2008) has never allowed 8 earned runs in a game. He also pitched less than 4 innings in a game just three times in three years. Blackburn has done in it three of his last four games. Lee also has failed to pitch at least seven innings just once this year.
The current four are fine and they'll win some games and probably get you to the playoffs, but if the Twins want to make any kind of a run they need another top-shelf arm. Go get Cliff Lee, Mr. Smith. Just do it.
[UPDATE: Funny story. I wrote the above on Saturday morning. Not more like five hours later, Kevin Slowey helps hammer my point home by not getting out of the second inning, going just one and 2/3rds innings and giving up 7 runs. Which is less than Blackburn, so I guess that's an improvement. Please Billy. Go get Cliffy.]
2. Europe. A lot of people think Europe is full of smelly, non-showering drunks with bad teeth, but that's not what I'm referring to here. I actually enjoyed the hell out of Europe the one time we visited, so I have nothing but love for those weirdos. But I have to admit that they suck at soccer. And I'm talking about all of Europe, I'm talking about the big boys who were supposed to be title contenders and are now going to have to struggle to make it out of group play; specifically Germany, France, Spain, Italy, and England.
England tied with both the U.S. and Algeria. France tied Uruguay and got rolled by Mexico 2-0 and is almost certainly out of the playoffs or whatever they call the tournament part. Germany destroyed Australia 4-0 in their opener and was looking like a possible juggernaut, but then got beat by Serbia, and Spain, who was maybe the strongest European team, lost their opener to a bunch of mincing nancies from Switzerland. Italy might have had the biggest mismatch of the pool round, going against a pretty crappy New Zealand squad, but even they couldn't pick up a win, playing the Kiwis to a draw at 1-1. Even though the continent has some nice surprise teams like the Netherlands and Slovenia, it is an ugly, ugly Cup so far for the Euros. Probably a good time to invade. Pay attention Obama.
3. Manny Corpas. Corpas, the Rockies' current closer, had himself a pretty awesome weekend. He had been pretty solid, saving nine of his last ten opportunities, and not being over remotely shaky in those chances, giving up no runs and more than one hit just once. The this weekend happened. First, on Saturday, he came in to save a game against the Brewers only two give up two singles and then a game-tying home run to the suddenly superstar Corey Hart. Then, on Sunday, he had a chance to redeem himself, coming in again in the ninth, this time in a 1-1 tie against the Brew Crew. Just to mix it up a bit, he didn't even bother getting an out, giving up three doubles (amongst other things) on his way to allowing five runs and turning a tie game into a 6-1 loss. For christ's sake, Trevor Hoffman got people out in that game. Trevor. Hoffman.
4. Baltimore Orioles. God they're just so bad. They're now 19-50 (19-50!!!!!), and there aren't really any signs of getting better. Their two young pitchers of the future, Chris Tillman and Jake Arrieta went with their Blackburn/Slowey impersonation this weekend against the offensive juggernaut that is the Padres, with neither of them getting to the fourth, and Tillman's ERA is now over 8 and he's been shuttled off to the bullpen - a great, great way to help build the confidence of one your building blocks. And speaking of building blocks, two of the supposed biggest - Matt Wieters and Adam Jones - have been absolutely terrible this year. I don't know if it's still true, but I read somewhere earlier in the week that there are three teams in the NL whose pitchers have a collective slugging percentage greater than the Orioles' first basemen. Yuck. No matter what they try to do, it seems they'll never turn this thing around and get better. The curse of Jeffrey Maier lives on.
5. Dustin Johnson. It's not often you see someone totally dominate and then completely and completely fall apart all in one weekend. He raced out at Pebble, shooting 71-70 in the first two rounds, and then had a monster 66 on Saturday to set himself up with a three shot lead over Graeme McDowell and a five shot lead over Tiger, who was alone in third place. Since he had won the previous two tournaments held at Pebble Beach, it was looking like a possible runaway situation. He then came out on Sunday and threw up all over the place He triple-bogeyed the second, double-bogeyed the third, and bogeyed the fourth. He ended up with five more bogeys on the day (and zero birdies) to finish up with a +11 round of 82. Nightmare. The fall from the first three rounds to the final round would be just like the Ohio State football program turning into the Gophers. Yeah, it was seriously that bad.
And I want to give a special shout-out to Hunter Mahan. Thanks for making me look like an ass, jerkface. That's two majors this year, two guys I was absolutely convinced were going to win, and two guys who missed the cut, and not only missed it, but were basically already so far out of it after one day that they would have had to pull out a miraculous second round just to stay alive for the weekend. Obviously, neither of them did. You can now consider Mahan on my list along with Furyk. Betrayers! The both of them! J'Accuse!
Thursday, May 14, 2009
Thursday Things (Twins, Threesomes, and shitty ptiching)
- How the holy hell did the Twins win today? Naturally the game wasn't on television, because there's far too much fishing, racing, and poker to be shown on Fox Sports during the day, so I couldn't watch it in our conference room, but I had the gamecast from MLB.com up on my computer at my desk in my big office on the 30th floor with the big window. Justin Verlander was mowin' down fools, like I warned he would, with twelve strikeouts of idiotic Twins' hackers and no runs allowed through six. Scott Baker the home run maker had matched him through five, also giving up no runs (which I assume meant the Tigers were hitting a lot of line drives right at defenders), but then came the inevitable implosion in the top of the sixth. The Tigers lit him up for five runs in the inning, which included a hit by Adam Everett (ADAM. FREAKING. EVERETT.)
At this point I mercifully had a meeting which I would love to tell you all about but I wasn't paying attention because it was boring and I was busy thinking about my girl Bianca Kajlich:
So when I get back to my desk, the Twins have somehow won 6-5. I have no idea how. It appears Verlander's arm was pretty much about to fall off when they brought him out in seventh (ended up with 122 pitches) and he promptly (after striking out Crede of course) gave up a rare hit to Buscher and a walk to Punto and was yanked for Bobby Seay - who I have decided to call the Matt Guerrier of Detroit. Seay got just one out and gave up three hits and a walk to lose the game. Actually, Crede got the game-winning hit off Zach Miner, but Seay definitely Jesse Crained this one.
And of course, Gardy got thrown out for being an idiot. I love when he throws his gay little temper tantrums. It really makes me proud to have him as a manager. Well, that and his gameday genius. Like batting Matt Tolbert second. Second. Right after first. Between the next Ricky Henderson and the Baby Jesus. Essentially guaranteeing the Twins could never get three hits in a row to start a game. Because Tolbert sucks, you see.
He is, of course, hitting just .200 now after a stellar 0-4 today, in which he decided to not even come close to making good contact. Sure, 30 at bats so far this year is a pretty small sample size, but I feel pretty comfortable saying that his ceiling is Denny Hocking.
Let's go ahead and ignore the hitting second thing, and instead point out that Brendan Harris should probably be the everyday second basemen, especially over Tolbert who has now started in EVERY SINGLE GAME SINCE HE WAS CALLED UP. All 8. Go ahead and count it. I'll wait.
It's just so frustrating to have a jackass like this as manager. It's like that manager in little league who plays his kid over players who are better, except he's running a multi-million dollar business.
Back to Brendan Harris. He's hitting .309/.360/.441 so far this season. Those numbers put him 10th, 12th, and 12th amongst second basemen in the majors. Better average than Chase Utley. Better OBP than Dan Uggla. Better slugging pct. than Dustin Pedroia. Plus he can play three positions. Yet he's behind Tolbert, Punto, and even Buscher. Makes zero sense, except, like I Hate Cuddyer Guy said, "It's just because Gardy is a fucking dipshit who plays favorites right?"
Plus, check out this story from The Todd. Originally relayed here in the comments, but it deserves to be promoted to main post status:
[I was fortunate enough to attend the Twins game this afternoon, compliments of work.
And as luck would have it, a coworker of mine seems to know EVERYone. He played college ball at St. Thomas so that has to say something right?
Anyway, he informed me during the game that Brenden Harris has been bangin some UofM chick for a while now and when he does, insists that the doors be open so all the girls in her house can hear it (classy if you ask me).
Moving on, he's wanted and has been pressuring her like hell to have a three some with some other chick in the house. Well apparently this all came to a head last weekebd (or two), said chick broke down whilst wasted calling the cops etc etc. Harris now has a restraining order against that entire house. Or so he says.
God I love baseball!
I need another drink.]
How do you NOT start that guy?
- Speaking of the Twins, do you remember the god awful pitching rotation the Tigers of 2003 trotted out? You remember, the team was terrible and everyone knew they were going to be terrible and overall the ended up losing 119 games? It was supposed to be a group of young bucks who would eventually develop into something special but out of Mike Maroth, Jeremy Bonderman, Nate Cornejo, Adam Bernero, and Gary Knotts not one of them has pitched an inning in 2009 and only Bonderman has a shot at being anything at all.
Well, those guys, who combined to go 25-77, had a combined ERA that year of 5.50. The Twins five "young guns" this year have a combined ERA of 5.17.
I'm just sayin'.
At this point I mercifully had a meeting which I would love to tell you all about but I wasn't paying attention because it was boring and I was busy thinking about my girl Bianca Kajlich:
So when I get back to my desk, the Twins have somehow won 6-5. I have no idea how. It appears Verlander's arm was pretty much about to fall off when they brought him out in seventh (ended up with 122 pitches) and he promptly (after striking out Crede of course) gave up a rare hit to Buscher and a walk to Punto and was yanked for Bobby Seay - who I have decided to call the Matt Guerrier of Detroit. Seay got just one out and gave up three hits and a walk to lose the game. Actually, Crede got the game-winning hit off Zach Miner, but Seay definitely Jesse Crained this one.
And of course, Gardy got thrown out for being an idiot. I love when he throws his gay little temper tantrums. It really makes me proud to have him as a manager. Well, that and his gameday genius. Like batting Matt Tolbert second. Second. Right after first. Between the next Ricky Henderson and the Baby Jesus. Essentially guaranteeing the Twins could never get three hits in a row to start a game. Because Tolbert sucks, you see.
He is, of course, hitting just .200 now after a stellar 0-4 today, in which he decided to not even come close to making good contact. Sure, 30 at bats so far this year is a pretty small sample size, but I feel pretty comfortable saying that his ceiling is Denny Hocking.
Let's go ahead and ignore the hitting second thing, and instead point out that Brendan Harris should probably be the everyday second basemen, especially over Tolbert who has now started in EVERY SINGLE GAME SINCE HE WAS CALLED UP. All 8. Go ahead and count it. I'll wait.
It's just so frustrating to have a jackass like this as manager. It's like that manager in little league who plays his kid over players who are better, except he's running a multi-million dollar business.
Back to Brendan Harris. He's hitting .309/.360/.441 so far this season. Those numbers put him 10th, 12th, and 12th amongst second basemen in the majors. Better average than Chase Utley. Better OBP than Dan Uggla. Better slugging pct. than Dustin Pedroia. Plus he can play three positions. Yet he's behind Tolbert, Punto, and even Buscher. Makes zero sense, except, like I Hate Cuddyer Guy said, "It's just because Gardy is a fucking dipshit who plays favorites right?"
Plus, check out this story from The Todd. Originally relayed here in the comments, but it deserves to be promoted to main post status:
[I was fortunate enough to attend the Twins game this afternoon, compliments of work.
And as luck would have it, a coworker of mine seems to know EVERYone. He played college ball at St. Thomas so that has to say something right?
Anyway, he informed me during the game that Brenden Harris has been bangin some UofM chick for a while now and when he does, insists that the doors be open so all the girls in her house can hear it (classy if you ask me).
Moving on, he's wanted and has been pressuring her like hell to have a three some with some other chick in the house. Well apparently this all came to a head last weekebd (or two), said chick broke down whilst wasted calling the cops etc etc. Harris now has a restraining order against that entire house. Or so he says.
God I love baseball!
I need another drink.]
How do you NOT start that guy?
- Speaking of the Twins, do you remember the god awful pitching rotation the Tigers of 2003 trotted out? You remember, the team was terrible and everyone knew they were going to be terrible and overall the ended up losing 119 games? It was supposed to be a group of young bucks who would eventually develop into something special but out of Mike Maroth, Jeremy Bonderman, Nate Cornejo, Adam Bernero, and Gary Knotts not one of them has pitched an inning in 2009 and only Bonderman has a shot at being anything at all.
Well, those guys, who combined to go 25-77, had a combined ERA that year of 5.50. The Twins five "young guns" this year have a combined ERA of 5.17.
I'm just sayin'.
Monday, April 27, 2009
Yuck.
Sigh. In New Jersey, once again, for three nights this time and before you ask - "Yes, it sucks." Even worse is that instead of being out here for stupid training I don't need or boring meetings that I'm bored of before I even arrive, I'm out here for a pretty important meeting that I play a pretty large role in. So, drinking will have to be in moderation. Well, until Wednesday night, when the only thing going on Thursday is a flight home - then all bets are off. I'm still bored, and I still have opinions, so I'll be blogging, just don't expect it to be funny or entertaining in any way.
- I'm coming to you live from the bar at the Princeton Marriott, thanks to the wonderful technology that is the Verizon Internet Card, which gives me the slowest internet connection imaginable, but I can get wireless pretty much anywhere, so at least that's something. Of course, no travel-related post would be complete without the story of some idiot, and today's idiot was sitting across the aisle from me on the plane. He is what I like to call, "A Know-It-All." Spent at least half of the flight badgering this poor old woman with facts and opinions about everything and everything, until I though she actually slumped over and died. Turns out she just went to sleep, since she was fine when we landed, but I wouldn't have blamed her for just giving up the ghost. Some gems:
* "I don't understand why these people bring these bags that are too big or bags that are so small. It's not that hard to just buy the biggest bag that will fit in any overhead compartment. That's what I have. I did my research. These people are just ridiculous"
* "I can't believe Northwest agreed to merge with Delta. Just a horrible decision. Here's what I would have done..(blah blah blah). It would have worked too, and they'd still have their airline.
* "No, this isn't a boeing. It's not a (some other name) either. It's actually a (some name). What this plane offers that most others don't is (something something)."
* "My daughter is very well known in figure skating circles. Yeah, she does synchronized figure skating, where all the skaters have to do the same moves at the same time. She's very good." (I can't believe this is a real thing.)
* "Yeah, my boys and I watched a religious video last night about this professor who talks about how evolution is so wrong and it's a huge mistake to believe it. He had a lot of facts and some really compelling points." (That's my favorite. If this guy had lots of compelling facts, I'd really love to hear them, since they don't exist. Always nice to go to an unbiased source like a religious video to get the whole story. I guarantee this guy believes the earth is 6,000 years old. This stuff really makes my blood boil."
- Since I'm in New Jersey and it thinks it's New York, I had a chance to watch Justin Verlander of Detroit throw against the Yankees tonight. Let me tell you, I'm worried for the Twins. The guy looked like the Verlander of 2006-2007 than last year's version. He's been awful this season (came into the game with an ERA of 9.00) but that's not what I saw tonight. Tonight he went 7 innings, giving up seven hits but no runs and striking out nine, and was never in serious danger of giving up a run. Not really sure what has been happening with him, but he was blowing guys away with the heater tonight. Could just be a blip, could mean he's figuring it out again. You've been warned.
- Great line from a Simpsons I watched before dinner.
HOMER: I have to go to work
MARGE: It's 4pm. And it's Saturday.
HOMER: I have to count the atoms at the power plant. Conservation of Mass you know, it's the law.
You kind of have to be a major dork to get it, but if you get it, it's pretty good.
- How bad has the Twins rotation been this year? Oof. And Baker's getting knocked around here again. All that hype about how great this young rotation is going to be, instead they run out there and get firebombed like a stereo store during the Watts riots. And just when Slowey steps up and shows how good he can be with a near-shutout, this season's defacto ace so far, Mr. Perkins, remembers he's not supposed to be that good. It's pretty clearly a shitbarn of a division again this year, and 85 wins or so will probably get it done, but the Twins clearly aren't going to outscore teams very often, so the pitchers have got to get it figured out, and quick. Yes, yes, they're still just a couple games back and the baby jesus hasn't played yet. Great. Optimism abounds.
- Speaking of shitty pitchers, I love how Chien-Ming Wang was put on the DL with "weakness in his hip" after getting shelled for a 34.50 ERA in his three starts. I don't think you're fooling anybody. It's that god damn political correctness. If Wang was a cracker, he'd be getting torn to shreds by fans, media, teammates, bloggers, and anybody with a pulse. But because he's a foreigner, everyone backs off and decides to say he's injured. And with Chan Ho Park, Hideo Nomo, and Byung-Hung Kim all flaming out as well, I think we should just round up all the foreigners in MLB and make them play in their own league and they can work harder at getting better. We could lock them up year round too, while we're at it, so they can work all year. It could be like some kind of camp. A camp for concentration or something.
- Speaking of concentrating, have you checked out Jason "The Man-Beast" Kubel? Let's see, he leads the team in average, slugging, OPS, home runs, doubles, triples, total bases, and runs batted in, and is second in runs scored and on-base percentage. Hm. There's been a curious lack of the Kubel bashing that was so prevalent here last year. Just more proof that you should always listen to me.
- Still on the Twins. Although Joe Crede has been mostly unsuccessful hitting the ball to places where he won't get out, hitting under .200 right now, there has been one very pleasant surprise, and that's in his plate patience. One of the main knocks on getting Crede was his low OBP and walk rate. After posting a career walk rate of 5.9% (walks/plate appearances), he has it up to 12.6% this year and tied for the team lead in walks with 8 so far. That takes his unappetizing average and brings it to a still ugly but slightly more respectable .306 OBP. That's about what Gomez's OBP would be if he hit .300, not very good, but it makes his poor average more tolerable. Hopefully he can keep it up, and also pull his strikout rate down, which is at once per every four at-bats, a career worst and almost double his lifetime average. Still way better than putting Buscher over there every day.
- I went to a whole bunch of garage sales in my parents' neighborhood this weekend, and amongst the creepy, dirty white trash clothes, the suspiciously brand new clothes with retail store price tags still on them, broken lawn equipment, crappy romance novels, and discarded children's toys, I found a real gem: The 1993 Sports Illustrated Almanac. This would be the part where I would regale you with facts you don't remember and players you had forgotten, but it's been two days and I already lost the damn thing.
- I know people who read things that other people write like to know more about them, and since you all know so much about me already, I thought I'd let you know that our main hockey guy here, Snake's favorite book is called "On the Wings of a North Wind." It appears to be about birds, and I'm not kidding, it's his favorite book. You know what book I would rather read than that? All of them. Any single one. If nothing else Snake, you're consistent. If you're into that kind of thing, and are a redneck hunter (sorry FishingMN), you can pick it up from that link at just $5.49 for a used copy. I'm already thinking about it.
- Since I have a big day tomorrow, I'm going to call it here. I'm sure I'll be back tomorrow.
- I'm coming to you live from the bar at the Princeton Marriott, thanks to the wonderful technology that is the Verizon Internet Card, which gives me the slowest internet connection imaginable, but I can get wireless pretty much anywhere, so at least that's something. Of course, no travel-related post would be complete without the story of some idiot, and today's idiot was sitting across the aisle from me on the plane. He is what I like to call, "A Know-It-All." Spent at least half of the flight badgering this poor old woman with facts and opinions about everything and everything, until I though she actually slumped over and died. Turns out she just went to sleep, since she was fine when we landed, but I wouldn't have blamed her for just giving up the ghost. Some gems:
* "I don't understand why these people bring these bags that are too big or bags that are so small. It's not that hard to just buy the biggest bag that will fit in any overhead compartment. That's what I have. I did my research. These people are just ridiculous"
* "I can't believe Northwest agreed to merge with Delta. Just a horrible decision. Here's what I would have done..(blah blah blah). It would have worked too, and they'd still have their airline.
* "No, this isn't a boeing. It's not a (some other name) either. It's actually a (some name). What this plane offers that most others don't is (something something)."
* "My daughter is very well known in figure skating circles. Yeah, she does synchronized figure skating, where all the skaters have to do the same moves at the same time. She's very good." (I can't believe this is a real thing.)
* "Yeah, my boys and I watched a religious video last night about this professor who talks about how evolution is so wrong and it's a huge mistake to believe it. He had a lot of facts and some really compelling points." (That's my favorite. If this guy had lots of compelling facts, I'd really love to hear them, since they don't exist. Always nice to go to an unbiased source like a religious video to get the whole story. I guarantee this guy believes the earth is 6,000 years old. This stuff really makes my blood boil."
- Since I'm in New Jersey and it thinks it's New York, I had a chance to watch Justin Verlander of Detroit throw against the Yankees tonight. Let me tell you, I'm worried for the Twins. The guy looked like the Verlander of 2006-2007 than last year's version. He's been awful this season (came into the game with an ERA of 9.00) but that's not what I saw tonight. Tonight he went 7 innings, giving up seven hits but no runs and striking out nine, and was never in serious danger of giving up a run. Not really sure what has been happening with him, but he was blowing guys away with the heater tonight. Could just be a blip, could mean he's figuring it out again. You've been warned.
- Great line from a Simpsons I watched before dinner.
HOMER: I have to go to work
MARGE: It's 4pm. And it's Saturday.
HOMER: I have to count the atoms at the power plant. Conservation of Mass you know, it's the law.
You kind of have to be a major dork to get it, but if you get it, it's pretty good.
- How bad has the Twins rotation been this year? Oof. And Baker's getting knocked around here again. All that hype about how great this young rotation is going to be, instead they run out there and get firebombed like a stereo store during the Watts riots. And just when Slowey steps up and shows how good he can be with a near-shutout, this season's defacto ace so far, Mr. Perkins, remembers he's not supposed to be that good. It's pretty clearly a shitbarn of a division again this year, and 85 wins or so will probably get it done, but the Twins clearly aren't going to outscore teams very often, so the pitchers have got to get it figured out, and quick. Yes, yes, they're still just a couple games back and the baby jesus hasn't played yet. Great. Optimism abounds.
- Speaking of shitty pitchers, I love how Chien-Ming Wang was put on the DL with "weakness in his hip" after getting shelled for a 34.50 ERA in his three starts. I don't think you're fooling anybody. It's that god damn political correctness. If Wang was a cracker, he'd be getting torn to shreds by fans, media, teammates, bloggers, and anybody with a pulse. But because he's a foreigner, everyone backs off and decides to say he's injured. And with Chan Ho Park, Hideo Nomo, and Byung-Hung Kim all flaming out as well, I think we should just round up all the foreigners in MLB and make them play in their own league and they can work harder at getting better. We could lock them up year round too, while we're at it, so they can work all year. It could be like some kind of camp. A camp for concentration or something.
- Speaking of concentrating, have you checked out Jason "The Man-Beast" Kubel? Let's see, he leads the team in average, slugging, OPS, home runs, doubles, triples, total bases, and runs batted in, and is second in runs scored and on-base percentage. Hm. There's been a curious lack of the Kubel bashing that was so prevalent here last year. Just more proof that you should always listen to me.
- Still on the Twins. Although Joe Crede has been mostly unsuccessful hitting the ball to places where he won't get out, hitting under .200 right now, there has been one very pleasant surprise, and that's in his plate patience. One of the main knocks on getting Crede was his low OBP and walk rate. After posting a career walk rate of 5.9% (walks/plate appearances), he has it up to 12.6% this year and tied for the team lead in walks with 8 so far. That takes his unappetizing average and brings it to a still ugly but slightly more respectable .306 OBP. That's about what Gomez's OBP would be if he hit .300, not very good, but it makes his poor average more tolerable. Hopefully he can keep it up, and also pull his strikout rate down, which is at once per every four at-bats, a career worst and almost double his lifetime average. Still way better than putting Buscher over there every day.
- I went to a whole bunch of garage sales in my parents' neighborhood this weekend, and amongst the creepy, dirty white trash clothes, the suspiciously brand new clothes with retail store price tags still on them, broken lawn equipment, crappy romance novels, and discarded children's toys, I found a real gem: The 1993 Sports Illustrated Almanac. This would be the part where I would regale you with facts you don't remember and players you had forgotten, but it's been two days and I already lost the damn thing.
- I know people who read things that other people write like to know more about them, and since you all know so much about me already, I thought I'd let you know that our main hockey guy here, Snake's favorite book is called "On the Wings of a North Wind." It appears to be about birds, and I'm not kidding, it's his favorite book. You know what book I would rather read than that? All of them. Any single one. If nothing else Snake, you're consistent. If you're into that kind of thing, and are a redneck hunter (sorry FishingMN), you can pick it up from that link at just $5.49 for a used copy. I'm already thinking about it.
- Since I have a big day tomorrow, I'm going to call it here. I'm sure I'll be back tomorrow.
Monday, March 30, 2009
Twins rotation outlook
Damn, the baseball season is finally almost here...it feels like Spring Training has been going for months. The Twins hype machine is fully operational though, someone on the radio broadcast said the team has a good chance of having multiple 20-game winners this season. The last guy to do it was Santana, who only managed to do it once despite being the best pitcher in baseball his last three years with the team. Seems a little hyperbolic to me, but let's take a look at the fortunately-Livan-free rotation from top to bottom.
Scott Baker
Key 2008 stats
3.45 ERA
4.25 xFIP
7.4 K/9
2.2 BB/9
Positives: Nearly every meaningful category improved in his second full season in the rotation. Held left-handed hitters in check. Only turns 27 this season. Pitched well enough to get Bert to shut up about keeping the ball down.
Red flags: Gives up a ton of fly balls, how many fly over the fence is variable and could cause an ERA spike. Stranded an above-average number of baserunners last year, that's tough to duplicate.
Useless Sidler Projection (USP): Pitches like a #1/2 starter and could be a fringe All-Star, but won't match last year's ERA.
Kevin Slowey
Key 2008 stats
3.99 ERA
4.14 xFIP
1.15 WHIP
6.9 K/9
1.3 BB/9
Positives: Began to show the promise his killer minor league stats suggested. Posted some of the best control numbers in the league while picking up 0.55 K/9 compared to 2007.
Red flags: Lefties combined to hit like Justin Morneau against him. HR rate was a little low, and like Baker, Slowey gives up a lot of fly balls.
USP: Bill James' projection system is a big fan of Slowey, and so am I. Slowey will be the best starter this year and put up better numbers than last year.
Francisco Liriano
Key 2008 stats
3.91 ERA
4.40 xFIP
1.39 WHIP
7.9 K/9
3.8 BB/9
Positives: It was a tale of two seasons for Liriano, and the second half--a 2.74 ERA speaks for itself. He's been a ground ball machine in Spring Training and the infield defense should be improved this season with Crede-Punto-Casilla providing + defense at their positions.
Red flags: He has control issues. Still learning how to pitch after Tommy John surgery.
USP: I might take that Slowey prediction back...a healthy, confident Liriano is the best starter in the division.
Nick Blackburn
Key 2008 stats
4.05 ERA
4.55 xFIP
1.36 WHIP
4.47 K/9
1.8 BB/9
Positives: Solid debut, awesome sideburns. Great control, solid groundball rate. HR rate well above his minor league performance. No extreme platoon splits. Improved infield defense will help him, too.
Red flags: Doesn't strike out many batters. 4.68 ERA after the All-Star break. Reminds me of Carlos Silva, performance could vary wildly throughout career.
USP: Won't match last year's ERA but will still be a reliable starter, especially for someone in the #4 starter slot.
Glen Perkins
4.41 ERA
5.05 xFIP
1.47 WHIP
4.41 K/9
2.3 BB/9
Positives: Much-improved walk rate compared to his minor league track record. Right-handed hitters performed worse than LH hitters.
Red flags: Horrible away from the Dome. LH hitters weren't phased by him throwing with his left hand, RH hitters knocked the crap out of the ball when they got a hit. High number of stranded runners. Doesn't strike out many hitters but lacks great control or a high groundball rate to make up for it.
USP: Perkins plants one foot in the bullpen by putting up a ~5.00 ERA this season. One of the many solid AAA arms in the Twins system will be pushing for the #5 spot by the All-Star break.
Wow, I didn't realize I was so optimistic about the Twins rotation this season. I'm not going to look around at other rosters, but I don't think many teams can match the Twins' 1-3 starters. With a potentially-improved defense behind them, the pitchers could lead the way to a big improvement in the team's run prevention (#16 last year). I think they'll need it, since the offense will be hard-pressed to match last year's performance...more on that later.
Scott Baker
Key 2008 stats
3.45 ERA
4.25 xFIP
7.4 K/9
2.2 BB/9
Positives: Nearly every meaningful category improved in his second full season in the rotation. Held left-handed hitters in check. Only turns 27 this season. Pitched well enough to get Bert to shut up about keeping the ball down.
Red flags: Gives up a ton of fly balls, how many fly over the fence is variable and could cause an ERA spike. Stranded an above-average number of baserunners last year, that's tough to duplicate.
Useless Sidler Projection (USP): Pitches like a #1/2 starter and could be a fringe All-Star, but won't match last year's ERA.
Kevin Slowey
Key 2008 stats
3.99 ERA
4.14 xFIP
1.15 WHIP
6.9 K/9
1.3 BB/9
Positives: Began to show the promise his killer minor league stats suggested. Posted some of the best control numbers in the league while picking up 0.55 K/9 compared to 2007.
Red flags: Lefties combined to hit like Justin Morneau against him. HR rate was a little low, and like Baker, Slowey gives up a lot of fly balls.
USP: Bill James' projection system is a big fan of Slowey, and so am I. Slowey will be the best starter this year and put up better numbers than last year.
Francisco Liriano
Key 2008 stats
3.91 ERA
4.40 xFIP
1.39 WHIP
7.9 K/9
3.8 BB/9
Positives: It was a tale of two seasons for Liriano, and the second half--a 2.74 ERA speaks for itself. He's been a ground ball machine in Spring Training and the infield defense should be improved this season with Crede-Punto-Casilla providing + defense at their positions.
Red flags: He has control issues. Still learning how to pitch after Tommy John surgery.
USP: I might take that Slowey prediction back...a healthy, confident Liriano is the best starter in the division.
Nick Blackburn
Key 2008 stats
4.05 ERA
4.55 xFIP
1.36 WHIP
4.47 K/9
1.8 BB/9
Positives: Solid debut, awesome sideburns. Great control, solid groundball rate. HR rate well above his minor league performance. No extreme platoon splits. Improved infield defense will help him, too.
Red flags: Doesn't strike out many batters. 4.68 ERA after the All-Star break. Reminds me of Carlos Silva, performance could vary wildly throughout career.
USP: Won't match last year's ERA but will still be a reliable starter, especially for someone in the #4 starter slot.
Glen Perkins
4.41 ERA
5.05 xFIP
1.47 WHIP
4.41 K/9
2.3 BB/9
Positives: Much-improved walk rate compared to his minor league track record. Right-handed hitters performed worse than LH hitters.
Red flags: Horrible away from the Dome. LH hitters weren't phased by him throwing with his left hand, RH hitters knocked the crap out of the ball when they got a hit. High number of stranded runners. Doesn't strike out many hitters but lacks great control or a high groundball rate to make up for it.
USP: Perkins plants one foot in the bullpen by putting up a ~5.00 ERA this season. One of the many solid AAA arms in the Twins system will be pushing for the #5 spot by the All-Star break.
Wow, I didn't realize I was so optimistic about the Twins rotation this season. I'm not going to look around at other rosters, but I don't think many teams can match the Twins' 1-3 starters. With a potentially-improved defense behind them, the pitchers could lead the way to a big improvement in the team's run prevention (#16 last year). I think they'll need it, since the offense will be hard-pressed to match last year's performance...more on that later.
Monday, September 29, 2008
Weekend Review
WHO WAS AWESOME
1. Tubby Smith. As reported below, Tubby signed Rodney Williams over the weekend, adding to an already impressive class that includes Royce White and Justin Cobbs. A top 20 player, a top 100 player, and an unknown in Cobbs. He's only ranked two stars by scout and three by rivals, and doesn't even make the positional rankings. ESPN ranks him as the #49 point guard in the country. To be honest, if this sounds like a Monson kind of recruit - but I'm not worried. I have no problem giving Tubby the benefit of the doubt here, and trust that he sees something that maybe nobody else does.
2. CC Sabathia. Pitching his third straight start for the Breweres on three days rest, he tossed a four-hit shutout against the Cubs to get the Brewers into the playoffs for the first time since 1982. Sabathia finished at 11-2 with the Brewers with an ERA of 1.65 and WHIP of 1.00, validating the Brewers front office and their one year rental of him.
3. Scott Baker. Overshadowed by Sabathia is Scott Baker's performance, which has no convinced me that yes, he is an excellent big game pitcher. Hopefully we get to see him pitch again this year.
4. Camilo Villegas. Not bad, taking the last two tournaments of the FedEx Cup playoffs, finishing in second place to Vijay Singh and cashing $3 million to go along with another $1.26 for winning the tour championship. If it weren't for a missed cut at the Barclay's, Villegas would be taking home the 10 mil after finishing 3rd, 1st, 1st to close out the year.
5. Me. Well, more accurately me, Theory, Dr. Acula, LunnDale, and Pee Wee. Since Mrs. and Baby W are out of town, we all headed up to Aitkin to spend a weekend at my parents cabin. At the Meat Raffle Saturday we were all-stars, winning nine times and bringing home a haul of six NY strips, six Ribeyes, 3 lbs. of bacon, a huge package of hot dogs, two big packages of chicken. That's some good eatin'.
WHO SUCKED
1. The AL Central. I mean, come on guys, somebody wants to go the playoffs, no? I'm scared if they get to the playoff, so I'm really hoping Detroit somehow manages to knock of the Sox today (in a game I might be live blogging since I'm working from home today). I just don't like Blackburn going out and pitching at Comiskey (whatever). Go Tigers!
2. Gopher Football. Losing 34-21 at Columbus is nothing to be ashamed of if the game was competitive. But it wasn't. Two garbage touchdowns in the fourth quarter make the score look better than it was. They covered the spread, so it's not a complete disaster, but any fans who managed to talk themselves into thinking this team was special in any way had a rude awakening. Or are delusional.
3. USC Football. Speaking of disasters, the Trojans managed to throw up all over themselves, losing at Oregon State for the second straight time. With the number 1 ranking and a craptacular Pac 10 even worse than the Big 10, USC had the red carpet rolled out all the way to the championship game. Oops.
4. Survivor League Football. Massive carnage in survivor leagues this week, as both Denver and Dallas went down - the two most popular picks of the week.
5. NY Mets. Another year, another collapse, another no playoff result.
1. Tubby Smith. As reported below, Tubby signed Rodney Williams over the weekend, adding to an already impressive class that includes Royce White and Justin Cobbs. A top 20 player, a top 100 player, and an unknown in Cobbs. He's only ranked two stars by scout and three by rivals, and doesn't even make the positional rankings. ESPN ranks him as the #49 point guard in the country. To be honest, if this sounds like a Monson kind of recruit - but I'm not worried. I have no problem giving Tubby the benefit of the doubt here, and trust that he sees something that maybe nobody else does.
2. CC Sabathia. Pitching his third straight start for the Breweres on three days rest, he tossed a four-hit shutout against the Cubs to get the Brewers into the playoffs for the first time since 1982. Sabathia finished at 11-2 with the Brewers with an ERA of 1.65 and WHIP of 1.00, validating the Brewers front office and their one year rental of him.
3. Scott Baker. Overshadowed by Sabathia is Scott Baker's performance, which has no convinced me that yes, he is an excellent big game pitcher. Hopefully we get to see him pitch again this year.
4. Camilo Villegas. Not bad, taking the last two tournaments of the FedEx Cup playoffs, finishing in second place to Vijay Singh and cashing $3 million to go along with another $1.26 for winning the tour championship. If it weren't for a missed cut at the Barclay's, Villegas would be taking home the 10 mil after finishing 3rd, 1st, 1st to close out the year.
5. Me. Well, more accurately me, Theory, Dr. Acula, LunnDale, and Pee Wee. Since Mrs. and Baby W are out of town, we all headed up to Aitkin to spend a weekend at my parents cabin. At the Meat Raffle Saturday we were all-stars, winning nine times and bringing home a haul of six NY strips, six Ribeyes, 3 lbs. of bacon, a huge package of hot dogs, two big packages of chicken. That's some good eatin'.
WHO SUCKED
1. The AL Central. I mean, come on guys, somebody wants to go the playoffs, no? I'm scared if they get to the playoff, so I'm really hoping Detroit somehow manages to knock of the Sox today (in a game I might be live blogging since I'm working from home today). I just don't like Blackburn going out and pitching at Comiskey (whatever). Go Tigers!
2. Gopher Football. Losing 34-21 at Columbus is nothing to be ashamed of if the game was competitive. But it wasn't. Two garbage touchdowns in the fourth quarter make the score look better than it was. They covered the spread, so it's not a complete disaster, but any fans who managed to talk themselves into thinking this team was special in any way had a rude awakening. Or are delusional.
3. USC Football. Speaking of disasters, the Trojans managed to throw up all over themselves, losing at Oregon State for the second straight time. With the number 1 ranking and a craptacular Pac 10 even worse than the Big 10, USC had the red carpet rolled out all the way to the championship game. Oops.
4. Survivor League Football. Massive carnage in survivor leagues this week, as both Denver and Dallas went down - the two most popular picks of the week.
5. NY Mets. Another year, another collapse, another no playoff result.
Tuesday, September 23, 2008
So This Is It
Well here we are, about to kick off the huge series against the White Sox, needing a sweep to put the Twins in command. Winning two would help, but would leave a lot to chance. Granted, the Twins would be in ok shape going up against the not-as-hapless-as-I-would-like Royals for three down 1.5 games with the Sox having to play Cleveland, including a likely last game of the season matchup against Cliff Lee. That being said, if they can't put it all together and take all three games in this must win series, I'm not so sure they even deserve to get in the playoffs.
Game 1: Scott Baker vs. Javier Vazquez
Advantage to the Twins here. Don't forget that Vazquez is a high quality pitcher though, and could definitely hold the Twins down. He's posting a 1.30 WHIP this season to go with an ERA of 4.32. The negative here is that his WHIP is as high as it is mainly because of a high walk rate (to go with a high K rate). Given that the Twins don't walk much, they could end up struggling for base runners, and, as such, runs. He's also been pitching pretty well lately, although not his last time out, so with a little luck he'll be off his game.
Baker has somehow acquired a reputation for being a "Big Game" pitcher, although I'm not entirely certain how that happened. He's going to need to live up to it tonight against a very good Sox lineup, even without Quentin. He'll have to keep the ball in the park, and I'm thinking he'll do it. I'm predicting a Twins victory here, keeping hope alive. Baker goes 8 strong, and Nathan has a shaky, but effective ninth for a 2-1 Twins victory.
Game 2: Mark Buehrle vs. Nick Blackburn
This matchup sucks. Buehrle has historically been very good against Minnesota, and since he's lefty Gardy will probably sit down Mauer, Morneau, and Kubel against him. The good news is that he's struggled against the Twins in two of his three starts against them this season, but in his one good start he completely shut them down. He's hot right now, with four straight excellent outings.
Blackburn started strong, but has tailed off in a big way lately, try not to remember his last start when he didn't even get out of the second inning. I'm hoping he can dig down for one last big time start, but I don't see him getting through more than six. Handing it over to the bullpen is not a good idea, and that's where this one falls apart. Blackburn keeps it close, but the bullpen ruins it all once again as the Sox take this one 8-2.
Game 3: Gavin Floyd vs. Kevin Slowey
I'll be at this game, so history would tell us that the Sox will roll. I'm counting on Slowey to not do that. He's been the team's best pitcher this season, and his two shutouts were nothing short of masterpieces. Up until his last outing, he had been on a roll and hopefully can keep it up.
He'll have to against Floyd. Floyd is probably the Sox best pitcher, but he's not all that dominant and the Twins can definitely get to him. Not that they have this year, but I still think they can. This one is going to be close, and will end up being a 3-2 win for somebody. Too tough to call, but if I have to, I'd say the Sox take it and the season ends in flames.
Game 1: Scott Baker vs. Javier Vazquez
Advantage to the Twins here. Don't forget that Vazquez is a high quality pitcher though, and could definitely hold the Twins down. He's posting a 1.30 WHIP this season to go with an ERA of 4.32. The negative here is that his WHIP is as high as it is mainly because of a high walk rate (to go with a high K rate). Given that the Twins don't walk much, they could end up struggling for base runners, and, as such, runs. He's also been pitching pretty well lately, although not his last time out, so with a little luck he'll be off his game.
Baker has somehow acquired a reputation for being a "Big Game" pitcher, although I'm not entirely certain how that happened. He's going to need to live up to it tonight against a very good Sox lineup, even without Quentin. He'll have to keep the ball in the park, and I'm thinking he'll do it. I'm predicting a Twins victory here, keeping hope alive. Baker goes 8 strong, and Nathan has a shaky, but effective ninth for a 2-1 Twins victory.
Game 2: Mark Buehrle vs. Nick Blackburn
This matchup sucks. Buehrle has historically been very good against Minnesota, and since he's lefty Gardy will probably sit down Mauer, Morneau, and Kubel against him. The good news is that he's struggled against the Twins in two of his three starts against them this season, but in his one good start he completely shut them down. He's hot right now, with four straight excellent outings.
Blackburn started strong, but has tailed off in a big way lately, try not to remember his last start when he didn't even get out of the second inning. I'm hoping he can dig down for one last big time start, but I don't see him getting through more than six. Handing it over to the bullpen is not a good idea, and that's where this one falls apart. Blackburn keeps it close, but the bullpen ruins it all once again as the Sox take this one 8-2.
Game 3: Gavin Floyd vs. Kevin Slowey
I'll be at this game, so history would tell us that the Sox will roll. I'm counting on Slowey to not do that. He's been the team's best pitcher this season, and his two shutouts were nothing short of masterpieces. Up until his last outing, he had been on a roll and hopefully can keep it up.
He'll have to against Floyd. Floyd is probably the Sox best pitcher, but he's not all that dominant and the Twins can definitely get to him. Not that they have this year, but I still think they can. This one is going to be close, and will end up being a 3-2 win for somebody. Too tough to call, but if I have to, I'd say the Sox take it and the season ends in flames.
Monday, March 31, 2008
W's Baseball Predictions
Baseball season is upon us, and, since baseball is the second best season of them all behind college basketball, I may as well share some predictions for the upcoming year as I watch opening day from the comfort of my couch (FYI - if you have Direct TV there's a free preview of the baseball package this week). Some of this is Twins-related, and some just MLB related overall. Have no fear, a full Final Four preview will be up soon enough.
1. As Sidler already touched on, Joe Mauer will struggle to knock in runs this year. If Gardy is smart, he will hit Mauer second where he belongs. With Mauer's lack of home run power, and Carlos "Pedro" Gomez and Adam Everett the two guys in front of him in the lineup, he'll struggle to get to 65 rbi, much less the 80 that Snacks foolishly predicted. I think he'll have a solid year, .300 - .310 range, with 25-30 doubles and around ten homeruns, but there's no way he's getting to 80 rbi.
2. Delmon Young will take a step forward, especially power wise. Young hit well last year, .288/.316/.408 with 13 home runs, and I expect him to improve. I like to believe the experience he got last year will lend itself to more patience, or at least I hope to go so. And his .408 slugging last year was the worst he had put up at any level. With a full year under his belt, hopefully he's figured out major league pitching, and not vice-versa. I am cautiously optimistic we'll see .300/.350/.500 with 20-25 home runs.
3. At the same time Young improves, I expect Morneau and Cuddyer to slide backwards further, and not just because of their new fat contracts. Nobody seems to be talking about how far Morneau slid last year. Batting average down 50 points, obp down 30 points, and slugging down almost 70 points. The one thing that makes me think he may recover is that his strikeout rate remained the same while his walk rate went up. Still, I expect him to slide and don't think he'll get to even 30 home runs this year. Cuddyer isn't as big a concern, despite a down year last year because in general his numbers were about the same other than slugging, and he actually cut down on his strikeouts. That being said, don't expect a return to his form from two years ago. I don't expect him to get to 20 home runs, or hit over .270.
4. Twins outlook: Not good. All the offensive uncertainty from the "stars", not even looking at the black holes on offense at third, short, second, center field, and possibly DH, leave the Twins unable to score runs. Looking at a confusing mishmash of a rotation leaves an even worse feeling. If you remember, The Sidler compiled some projections for the rotation and it looked like this:
Ouch. And that even seems optimistic on some of those guys. Livan is going to be a disaster. Bonser is a 4/5 starter at best. Slowey is going to get ripped to shreds in the big leagues. Maybe Blackburn can pitch. I've never seen him throw, so he's my only hope. Baker is the only one I have any faith in becoming an even league average starter, Liriano excepted. Who knows what happens with him. He seemed to be coming along this spring, and I think it was a good move to start him in the minors. I'm predicting (hoping) he gets called up around June/July and is able to at least approach his former form.
5. What does this uncertain offense + mishmash rotation mean, combined with a solid bullpen and a step down in defense? Dead last in the AL central, even behind the Royals. Would be the worst team in the entire American League, except that the Orioles are in an even bigger mess, and just getting worse.
6. Torii Hunter will be average. There are a lot of reasons to predict Hunter to have a bad year, chief among which is that I don't like him. Additionally, his walk rate plummeted from bad to really bad last year. There are good reasons to predict a good year for him, coming off two really excellent years and going to a team with a much, much, much better offense that the Twins. I expect him to have a career high in RBIs due to greater opportunity, but his numbers will go down overall. Somewhere in the .270/.333/.470 range with around 20 home runs or so.
7. In contrast to his ex-teammate, Johan Santana is going to rock the national league to Dwight Goodien levels. I know most of his numbers moved the wrong way the last couple of years, but he's in the National League now. Not only is there a free out with the pitcher, much like the Twins have in their lineup with Adam Everett, but the NL is the worse league of the two. Plus it helps being on the Mets and not having to face them. I expect him to shred the league, with an ERA in the mid-2's, a WHIP of about 1.00, and a K/9 of 9-10. Seriously. And he'll probably hit .275 to boot.
8. A Yankee collapse begins. Think about it, other than A-Rod, who is awesome, Cano, who might be the best 2b in the AL, and Jeter, who is gay, there are question marks everywhere on the Yankees roster. Posada absolutely busted through what he should have done last year, and will likely regress to the mean like a mofo. Johnny Damon's numbers have been in major declines for the last few years, including losing 90 points off his slugging last year, and posted a OPS+ of 97 (league average player = 100), and most 35 year olds don't reverse this trend. Bobby Fatbreu is in basically the exact same boat, except he hasn't plummeted quite as far just yet. Melky Cabrera's upside is basically an average major league outfielder. The Jason Giambi/Shelley Duncan 1B combo is a joke, and Hideki Matsui is coming off knee surgery and his worst season at 34 years old.
Even more, the rotation is going to be a suckfest. Chien-Ming Wang has been a very good pitcher the last two years, and could very well continue, but he outperforms his metrics every year and could be due to collapse (Baseball Prospectus gives a collapse a 34% probability). Pettitte is the only other decent pitcher on that team, and he's starting the year on the DL. As much as it pains me to say it, as I am a huge fan, Mike Mussina might be done. The back of the rotation is two kids, Ian Kennedy and Phil Hughes, who are supposed to have a ton of talent, but so did David West, Todd Van Poppel, and Brien Taylor. The bullpen is basically Rivera and Chamberlain, and I don't see anyway Chamberlain can be moved into the rotation when their third best guy is LaTroy Hawkins.
In store is a very bad year by Yankee standards, which will lead to a freakout by the younger Steinbrenners, anxious to make a name for themselves and get out from daddy's shadow. They will sell off the very same talent they refused to give up for Johan this past offseason for much lesser talent (expect Adam Dunn and/or Rich Harden to be Yankees). This will cause the same cycle the Yanks were stuck in during the early nineties and lead to more suckitude. You heard it here first.
9. The Indians will miss the playoffs due to Sabathia and Carmona spending too much time on the DL. Sabathia threw 198, 188, 197, and 192 innings the four years prior to throwing 257 last year. Carmona went from 102 innings two years ago to 230 last year. That means injuries, and that means no playoffs for the Tribe.
10. Others who will suck: Mike Lowell, Kaz Matsui, John Smoltz, Randy Johnson, Manny Ramirez, Ken Griffey, Manny Corpas, Gary Sheffield, John Lackey, Andruw Jones, Ryan Braun, Brett Myers, Jason Bay, Jim Edmonds, Carlos Pena, Alex Rios
11. Others who will rock: Justin Verlander, Micah Owings, Jeff Francoeur, Erik Bedard, Clay Buchholz, Geovany Soto, Nick Swisher, Homer Bailey, Evan Longoria, Troy Tulowitzski, Wandy Rodriguez, Billy Butler, Matt Kemp, Chad Billingsley, Takashi Saito, David Wright, Cole Hamels, Matt Capps, Tim Lincecum, BJ Upton, Vernon Wells, Dustin McGowan, Jason Bergmann
12. AL Playoff Teams: Boston, Detroit, Anaheim, Toronto
13. NL Playoff Teams: New York, Chicago, Los Angeles, Philadelphia
14. World Series: Mets over Tigers
15. MVPs: Ryan Howard, Vlad Guerrero
16. CY YOUNGS: Johan Santana, Justin Verlander
17. Rookies of the Year: Evan Longoria, Matt Kemp
Friday, August 31, 2007
Holy Crap!
9:03pm: Scott Baker is improbably, unbelievably, pitching a perfect game into the 8th inning. We are at 1 out in the 8th here, Twins lead 3-0.
9:04pm: Baker strikes out "superprospect" Alex Gordon with a nasty, nasty slider. Strikeout number 9 for Baker, all swinging.
9:04pm: Next up, some guy I've never heard of. The exact kind of guy who breaks up perfect games.
9:04pm: Nope. Lazy grounder to Morneau. Wow.
9:08pm: Cuddyer singles, his third of the game, which is pretty amazing by itself. That'll help my fantasy team.
9:09pm: Kubel off the baggie. These guys need to hurry up and get out and get Baker back out there.
9:11pm: Single for Redmond. Fake Ryan Braun can't get anybody out.
9:12pm: My mistake - he got Rondell White out. Shocking. Kubel scores from third. Obviously it was a deep fly.
9:14pm: Nick Punto just struck out looking on a curveball down the middle and didn't like the call. Seriously - when you're hitting .190 you are lucky if everything you take isn't a strike.
9:15pm: Casilla just grounded out on one pitch - thank you - and here we go.
9:16pm: Crowd on their feet. John Buck first up and Baker goes 2-0.
9:18pm: Buck walks on 5 pitches. No hitter still intact.
9:20pm: Just showed Mike Sweeney on deck. I don't care what happens with German (current batter), Sweeney makes me nervous.
9:21: Forced at second, couldn't get the double play. Sweeney up next. Baker at 101 pitches.
9:22: I knew Sweeney would do it. Dammit.
9:23: Hell of a game. Dominating until the 9th. Don't know if it was nerves, or just wearing down from the game, but he definitely doesn't have whatever he had all game here in the 9th.
9:24pm: DeJesus (spanish for "From Jesus") flys out to center. Baker can at least get his first major league shut out if he can get Grudzielanek - who, by the way, is apparently still in MLB.
9:26pm: Lineout to Bartlett. Baker finishes with the extremely rare "disappointing one-hit shutout." Great game. I have to admit, last year I was hoping we would trade him before it was too late and he had no value. He's proved me wrong tonight and this year in general. Time to trade Bonser instead.
9:30pm: Baker just informed us that he didn't get the perfect game because it was "God's Will." He also said that faith and family are more important than baseball. Sissy.
9:35pm: I'm going to drink Beer, play Madden, and watch Anchorman now.
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