Throughout the summer I'll be writing up each of the 34 players who played for the University of Minnesota under Tubby Smith. Why Tubby? Because it's the most recent era that's over. If this goes well perhaps I'll go back and do Monson as well. I'll be looking at any player who played at Minnesota under Tubby at some point, even if it was just a year. And I will be considering their entire Gopher career, so guys who started under Monson or finished under Pitino will have their whole career considered, but anyone who transferred in or out is only evaluated on their Gopher stats. With me? Here we go:
#34 to #31 can be found here.
#26-#30 can be found here.
#21-#25 are here
Here's #16-#20
15. Julian Welch (2011-2013).
- This feels high for Welch considering he was a two year player whose playing time dramatically shrunk in his second year, but Welch somehow managed to rank top 10 in assists, three pointers, and steals among all Gophers in this countdown. I don't remember him as a particularly great shooter or passer, but I remember the steals simply because of the difference between his hand speed and foot speed. He had, without question, the fastest hands of any Gopher I can recall. He also was essentially a lawn gnome when he tried to guard anyone trying to get to the lane. I legitimately loved watching him simply because of those two things.
14. Elliott Eliason (2011-2015).
- This is a tough career to try to sum up, but you could probably do it best just by looking at his minutes per game each year: 15.0, 13.7 (regression), 21.9 (big leap forward!), 11.2 (ugh). That's about right. He had that one stretch of brilliance his junior season where he put up double doubles in four of eight games with two other near misses, and that stretch included five Big Ten games, where it looked like he might be becoming something, but alas, it wasn't meant to be and his career kind of spiraled to an underwhelming conclusion. However it's almost impossible to look back on this guy with any kind of bad feelings. He was a guy who came and gave it everything he had whenever he was on the court, and never let playing time get to him in any way you could see or hear about it. Good dude.
13. Lawrence McKenzie (2006-2008).
- McKenzie ranks high because even though he was only a Gopher for two years he was pretty much the man both of those years, averaging 13.3 points per game, and led the Gophers to the NIT in Tubby's first year which seemed like an impossibility following the disaster that was the final Monson/Molinari year and suddenly everything seemed possible and we were on our way and we could build this dream together standing strong forever nothing's gonna stop us now. Or whatever.
12. Maurice Walker (2010-2015).
- Walker played for 17 years as a Gopher, and that kind of time is tough to forget. I also think he might have lost some weight once Pitino came in, but I'm not sure I thought I heard that somewhere though. Seriously though, the first time I saw Walker play as a freshman I could tell right away he had a great feel for the game. You know how a lot of big men get the ball on the block and go right into score mode? Walker didn't, he saw the court amazingly well, although it's not backed up by his assist numbers I stand by what I saw. Injuries and weight issues (perhaps related) robbed him of some athleticism and explosiveness, and who knows what might have been? He was clearly a hard worker, just looking at his weight loss and free throws, and I believe he could have developed an outside shot at some point. This would be a good guy to take a do over on, if you could do such as that.
11. Spencer Tollackson (2004-2008).
- No bonus points for being the radio guy for the Gophers, though not because I dislike him or anything - I actually like when he weights in from the player's perspective on things, even if he's behind only Paul Allen on the homer list. That actually kind of sums up his playing career - a little bit annoying and a little bit likable. Similar to Walker, he was clearly a hard worker who wanted to win. I remember him completely revamping his free throw form to try to fix that issue (didn't work) and going from a garbage man to someone with a variety of moves. Unfortunately, all that hard work to develop those moves didn't really work because he didn't have the natural talent to finish. Clearly worked at it though, which is cool.
Showing posts with label Tubby Smith. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Tubby Smith. Show all posts
Tuesday, September 15, 2015
Thursday, September 10, 2015
Gophers of the Tubby Era Countdown: #16-#20
Throughout the summer I'll be writing up each of the 34 players who played for the University of Minnesota under Tubby Smith. Why Tubby? Because it's the most recent era that's over. If this goes well perhaps I'll go back and do Monson as well. I'll be looking at any player who played at Minnesota under Tubby at some point, even if it was just a year. And I will be considering their entire Gopher career, so guys who started under Monson or finished under Pitino will have their whole career considered, but anyone who transferred in or out is only evaluated on their Gopher stats. With me? Here we go:
#34 to #31 can be found here.
#26-#30 can be found here.
#21-#25 are here
#20. MAVERICK AHANMISI (2010-2014).
- Stuck around all four years, which is a positive, but never really developed into a third string point guard. Probably took more heat than anyone on this list, but you can't blame him too much because he basically got forced into more playing time than he had the talent to play. He did see his playing time dwindle from 13.3 minutes per game in his sophomore year to 10.5 as a junior and 9.6 as a senior. He ended his career shooting under 40% from the floor and with a 1.1 to 0.9 assist-to-turnover ratio. He was a late spring desperation signing and he generally played like it. But at least he tried and wasn't a whiner.
#19. JOE COLEMAN (2011-2013).
- He was a pretty important piece on Tubby's last two teams before transferring to St. Mary's when Richard Pitino came in despite having a game that would thrive in his system. He never developed an outside shot, but he excelled at getting to the rim and finding ways to score despite standing just 6-4. His amazing 29 point outburst at Illinois showed his potential, but he wasn't able to harness that consistently and now he's off to the Gaels. He played in one game last season before an injury knocked him out for the year.
#18. JAMAL ABU SHAMALA (2005-2009).
- One of the harder players to rank. He wasn't very good, but he played four years and had his moments, generally behind the 3-point line because he basically didn't do anything else. It was a special moment whenever he found himself with an open three and you just didn't care if it went in because if he was in the game when it mattered it was when the Gophers were terrible and if he was in when they were decent the game was probably out of hand already. Completely unfair to him, but for whatever reason he represents the failure of the Monson/Molinari years to me. Probably because he was actually starting at one point when things were pretty much completely off the rails. Now I can appreciate who he was, at pretty much right in the middle of this countdown seems about right.
#17. COLTON IVERSON (2008-2011).
- If you had to make a poster for guys who never developed under Tubby Smith, it would have to be a pretty big poster. But if you wanted to narrow down to two guys, Iverson is one of them. He was a so so post player for the Gophers, but once he transferred to Colorado State he turned into a monster who got himself drafted in the second round of the NBA Draft. Don't remember he became a monster because he played in a smaller conference way out west? Well he averaged 14 points and 10 rebounds a game his senior year. Those are amazing numbers. Could he have put that up in the Big Ten? Most likely not, but it's clear he was underutilized his three years as a Gopher.
#16. DEVOE JOSEPH (2008-2011).
- One of the most disappointing players of the era for me, I really thought Joseph was going to be a lights out scorer. There were times where he looked so good, but he and Tubby clearly didn't get along, both on the court (Joseph could get lost out there at times) and off (weed). Then, 8 games into his junior year he bolted after being suspended twice for an undisclosed reason (weed), apparently complaining about not getting enough playing time and shot attempts which was ridiculous. Al Nolen would get hurt later that season, which would have given Joseph all the playing time he could handle. By then he was already at Oregon, and, rather than sit out a full year to maximize his playing time, he joined the ducks for the second semester of the 2011-2012 year, which meant that in his final two years he played a grand total of just 36 games. Yeah, he ended up developing into that scorer I thought he would (averaged 16.7 points per game), but a series of poor decisions cost him a lot.
#34 to #31 can be found here.
#26-#30 can be found here.
#21-#25 are here
#20. MAVERICK AHANMISI (2010-2014).
- Stuck around all four years, which is a positive, but never really developed into a third string point guard. Probably took more heat than anyone on this list, but you can't blame him too much because he basically got forced into more playing time than he had the talent to play. He did see his playing time dwindle from 13.3 minutes per game in his sophomore year to 10.5 as a junior and 9.6 as a senior. He ended his career shooting under 40% from the floor and with a 1.1 to 0.9 assist-to-turnover ratio. He was a late spring desperation signing and he generally played like it. But at least he tried and wasn't a whiner.
#19. JOE COLEMAN (2011-2013).
- He was a pretty important piece on Tubby's last two teams before transferring to St. Mary's when Richard Pitino came in despite having a game that would thrive in his system. He never developed an outside shot, but he excelled at getting to the rim and finding ways to score despite standing just 6-4. His amazing 29 point outburst at Illinois showed his potential, but he wasn't able to harness that consistently and now he's off to the Gaels. He played in one game last season before an injury knocked him out for the year.
#18. JAMAL ABU SHAMALA (2005-2009).
- One of the harder players to rank. He wasn't very good, but he played four years and had his moments, generally behind the 3-point line because he basically didn't do anything else. It was a special moment whenever he found himself with an open three and you just didn't care if it went in because if he was in the game when it mattered it was when the Gophers were terrible and if he was in when they were decent the game was probably out of hand already. Completely unfair to him, but for whatever reason he represents the failure of the Monson/Molinari years to me. Probably because he was actually starting at one point when things were pretty much completely off the rails. Now I can appreciate who he was, at pretty much right in the middle of this countdown seems about right.
#17. COLTON IVERSON (2008-2011).
- If you had to make a poster for guys who never developed under Tubby Smith, it would have to be a pretty big poster. But if you wanted to narrow down to two guys, Iverson is one of them. He was a so so post player for the Gophers, but once he transferred to Colorado State he turned into a monster who got himself drafted in the second round of the NBA Draft. Don't remember he became a monster because he played in a smaller conference way out west? Well he averaged 14 points and 10 rebounds a game his senior year. Those are amazing numbers. Could he have put that up in the Big Ten? Most likely not, but it's clear he was underutilized his three years as a Gopher.
#16. DEVOE JOSEPH (2008-2011).
- One of the most disappointing players of the era for me, I really thought Joseph was going to be a lights out scorer. There were times where he looked so good, but he and Tubby clearly didn't get along, both on the court (Joseph could get lost out there at times) and off (weed). Then, 8 games into his junior year he bolted after being suspended twice for an undisclosed reason (weed), apparently complaining about not getting enough playing time and shot attempts which was ridiculous. Al Nolen would get hurt later that season, which would have given Joseph all the playing time he could handle. By then he was already at Oregon, and, rather than sit out a full year to maximize his playing time, he joined the ducks for the second semester of the 2011-2012 year, which meant that in his final two years he played a grand total of just 36 games. Yeah, he ended up developing into that scorer I thought he would (averaged 16.7 points per game), but a series of poor decisions cost him a lot.
Tuesday, July 21, 2015
Best Gophers of the Tubby Era: #25-21.
Throughout the summer I'll be writing up each of the 34 players who played for the University of Minnesota under Tubby Smith. Why Tubby? Because it's the most recent era that's over. If this goes well perhaps I'll go back and do Monson as well. I'll be looking at any player who played at Minnesota under Tubby at some point, even if it was just a year. And I will be considering their entire Gopher career, so guys who started under Monson or finished under Pitino will have their whole career considered, but anyone who transferred in or out is only evaluated on their Gopher stats. With me? Here we go:
#34 to #31 can be found here.
#26-#30 can be found here.
25. TRAVIS BUSCH (2007-2009).
- I know what you're thinking. You're thinking he should be higher based solely on his heart and his hustle and his grit. Maybe so. But grit and a can do it attitude can only get you so far - like a career total of 132 points in a gopher uniform. I know you've talked yourself into remembering him as an impact player in his second year, but the fact of the matter is he only averaged 3.7 points per game that season. I think he had a handful of good games in a row or something at one point. Also, and I forgot this and only remembered when I was perusing my Busch archives, the team flat out decided not to renew his scholarship after his junior year. So that's something.
24. DEVRON BOSTICK (2008-2010).
- Ranks up there with Antoine Broxsie as one of the most disappointing Gophers in my lifetime. I remember reading up on him after the Gophers signed him out of JuCo and thinking damn he sounds good. A polished scorer with two years of JuCo experience? I figured him to come in and be instant offense at worst. Never happened. He averaged just 3.7 points per game in his Gopher career, and played less than 10 minutes per game his senior year. Course, that'll happen when you shoot just 43%. He had games where he started to look like he was putting it together, and he could certainly be a smooth offensive player at times, but time ran out before he could put it all together.
23. CHIP ARMELIN (2010-2012).
- Another disappointing Gopher, and other than Busch this whole post could just be labeled "The Disappointments", Armelin also never quite managed to put it all together. He averaged 4.5 points per game in 12.5 minutes per game in his two years here, and although he certainly had some serious athletic ability it never really manifested itself. He didn't put up good rebounding numbers, he wasn't a great defender, and he shot just 42%. He blossomed in his senior year after transferring to Mississippi State, but like I said, that means nothing here. I initially had him below Bostick, but I forgot how ineffective Bostick actually was. Armelin outscored him by 132 points, out-rebounded him by 32, and out-assisted him by 10.
22. OTO OSENIEKS (2011-2014).
- Another guy who never quite put it all together. Oto had a weird career, culminating in a career ending injury until the Gophers needed another big guy and then suddenly he could play again. His willingness to help the team is commendable, and he was maybe is a coach or grad assistant or something so that's great, but he also averaged just 3.5 points per game in his 3-year Gopher career and was a pretty god awful rebounder despite being 6-8. I always liked Oto, and I really wanted him to succeed since it seemed to me everyone was a bit too hard on him. Somehow, my want never made it so.
21. PAUL CARTER (2008-2010).
- Carter played just two years for the Gophers before transferring to UIC to be closer to his sick sister, but he ranks this highly because he's actually good. He had the most points and second most rebounds of any player ranked so far despite just the two seasons. Carter really made some strides between his first and second seasons and could have been a potential star, and he blossomed quite a bit once he enrolled at UIC. It was a bummer when he left, and I'll always remember his huge block in the big comeback win in Madison which, by the way, I was in attendance for. After the game and then after the bar we went to some pizza place and there was some punk kid there who moved our stuff and was sitting in our seat and he wouldn't move and wouldn't even look at us or acknowledge us in any way so Dawger slapped the pizza out of his stupid mouth and then we got kicked out. Still got to take our pizza with us though.
#34 to #31 can be found here.
#26-#30 can be found here.
25. TRAVIS BUSCH (2007-2009).
- I know what you're thinking. You're thinking he should be higher based solely on his heart and his hustle and his grit. Maybe so. But grit and a can do it attitude can only get you so far - like a career total of 132 points in a gopher uniform. I know you've talked yourself into remembering him as an impact player in his second year, but the fact of the matter is he only averaged 3.7 points per game that season. I think he had a handful of good games in a row or something at one point. Also, and I forgot this and only remembered when I was perusing my Busch archives, the team flat out decided not to renew his scholarship after his junior year. So that's something.
24. DEVRON BOSTICK (2008-2010).
- Ranks up there with Antoine Broxsie as one of the most disappointing Gophers in my lifetime. I remember reading up on him after the Gophers signed him out of JuCo and thinking damn he sounds good. A polished scorer with two years of JuCo experience? I figured him to come in and be instant offense at worst. Never happened. He averaged just 3.7 points per game in his Gopher career, and played less than 10 minutes per game his senior year. Course, that'll happen when you shoot just 43%. He had games where he started to look like he was putting it together, and he could certainly be a smooth offensive player at times, but time ran out before he could put it all together.
23. CHIP ARMELIN (2010-2012).
- Another disappointing Gopher, and other than Busch this whole post could just be labeled "The Disappointments", Armelin also never quite managed to put it all together. He averaged 4.5 points per game in 12.5 minutes per game in his two years here, and although he certainly had some serious athletic ability it never really manifested itself. He didn't put up good rebounding numbers, he wasn't a great defender, and he shot just 42%. He blossomed in his senior year after transferring to Mississippi State, but like I said, that means nothing here. I initially had him below Bostick, but I forgot how ineffective Bostick actually was. Armelin outscored him by 132 points, out-rebounded him by 32, and out-assisted him by 10.
22. OTO OSENIEKS (2011-2014).
- Another guy who never quite put it all together. Oto had a weird career, culminating in a career ending injury until the Gophers needed another big guy and then suddenly he could play again. His willingness to help the team is commendable, and he was maybe is a coach or grad assistant or something so that's great, but he also averaged just 3.5 points per game in his 3-year Gopher career and was a pretty god awful rebounder despite being 6-8. I always liked Oto, and I really wanted him to succeed since it seemed to me everyone was a bit too hard on him. Somehow, my want never made it so.
21. PAUL CARTER (2008-2010).
- Carter played just two years for the Gophers before transferring to UIC to be closer to his sick sister, but he ranks this highly because he's actually good. He had the most points and second most rebounds of any player ranked so far despite just the two seasons. Carter really made some strides between his first and second seasons and could have been a potential star, and he blossomed quite a bit once he enrolled at UIC. It was a bummer when he left, and I'll always remember his huge block in the big comeback win in Madison which, by the way, I was in attendance for. After the game and then after the bar we went to some pizza place and there was some punk kid there who moved our stuff and was sitting in our seat and he wouldn't move and wouldn't even look at us or acknowledge us in any way so Dawger slapped the pizza out of his stupid mouth and then we got kicked out. Still got to take our pizza with us though.
Sunday, July 5, 2015
Best Gophers of the Tubby Era: #26-30
Throughout the summer I'll be writing up each of the 34 players who played for the University of Minnesota under Tubby Smith. Why Tubby? Because it's the most recent era that's over. If this goes well perhaps I'll go back and do Monson as well. I'll be looking at any player who played at Minnesota under Tubby at some point, even if it was just a year. And I will be considering their entire Gopher career, so guys who started under Monson or finished under Pitino will have their whole career considered, but anyone who transferred in or out is only evaluated on their Gopher stats. With me? Here we go:
#34 to #31 can be found here.
30. JUSTIN COBBS (2009-2010).
- He had a completely acceptable freshman year backing up Al Nolen, averaging 2 pts and 1 assist per game in about 11 minutes, and he looked like he'd end up being a quality player. He did, ending his playing days with career averages of 11.3 points and 4.2 assists per game including points per game averages over 15 each of his last two seasons. The only problem is his last three years all happened at Cal after Cobbs transferred out following his first season here. His overall career would rank him significantly higher on this list, but with only 363 of his career minutes coming as a Gopher he has to land here.
29. KENDAL SHELL (2011-2015).
- Significantly less minutes in his Gopher career than even Cobbs with just 86 in his four years, I put Shell here because he's just been a good Gopher - no not playing wise but you know what I mean. There's something endearing about a guy willing to walk-on for four straight years (I know he got a stray scholarship or something at some point but the point stands). Did you know he wore three different jersey numbers in his time as a Gopher? Basketball Reference says, and Google Images confirms, that he wore 34, 2, and 12. Like, last season Nate Mason came in and wanted 2, so Shell shifted to 12. I assume the same thing happened with the switch from 34 to 2, though I can't come up with who wore 34 recently. Probably because I'm a little drunk. Anyway, Kendal Shell was a good soldier for four years, and I'd love to put him higher. With 17 career points, however, I cannot.
28. JONATHAN WILLIAMS (2004-2009).
- The longest tenured of anybody on this list with 5 years spent in the maroon and gold, he actually has better total numbers than a lot of people who will be ranked above him but that's a product of those five years. He played in 107 games but never averaged more than 3 points or rebounds per game. Basketball Reference doesn't have his minutes stats for some reason, but he finished his career with under two field goal attempts per game so it's safe to say he didn't get a lot of run (I'm struggling to clearly remember him at all). I went back in my archives to see what I said about him and he's been tagged five times in posts. They're, uh, not good. I found this:
So there you go.
27. KEVIN PAYTON (2006-2009).
- He just never developed. I remember he was a 3-star, and at 6-6 when he was forced to play point he did it well and I was optimistic. That was silly. He never averaged more than the 2.2 points and 2.5 assists per game that he did as a freshman, and his numbers just kind of, trend down until he did nothing his junior year and then flat out quit playing basketball. Still have no idea what happened here.
26. ANDRE INGRAM (2011-2013).
- A Minnesota kid who came to the Gophers after two years at JuCo I always liked Ingram (to be clear, it has nothing to do with him being a Minnesota kid who came home because I'm not one of those types). He just seemed like he was trying really hard. Unfortunately he just wasn't very good, ending up with career averages of 1.8 points and 1.7 rebounds per game. I've wrote on this blog many times that Andre Ingram was a really intriguing sophomore. Unfortunately he was a senior. And the NCAA has pretty strict rules around eligibility. Fascists.
#34 to #31 can be found here.
30. JUSTIN COBBS (2009-2010).
- He had a completely acceptable freshman year backing up Al Nolen, averaging 2 pts and 1 assist per game in about 11 minutes, and he looked like he'd end up being a quality player. He did, ending his playing days with career averages of 11.3 points and 4.2 assists per game including points per game averages over 15 each of his last two seasons. The only problem is his last three years all happened at Cal after Cobbs transferred out following his first season here. His overall career would rank him significantly higher on this list, but with only 363 of his career minutes coming as a Gopher he has to land here.
29. KENDAL SHELL (2011-2015).
- Significantly less minutes in his Gopher career than even Cobbs with just 86 in his four years, I put Shell here because he's just been a good Gopher - no not playing wise but you know what I mean. There's something endearing about a guy willing to walk-on for four straight years (I know he got a stray scholarship or something at some point but the point stands). Did you know he wore three different jersey numbers in his time as a Gopher? Basketball Reference says, and Google Images confirms, that he wore 34, 2, and 12. Like, last season Nate Mason came in and wanted 2, so Shell shifted to 12. I assume the same thing happened with the switch from 34 to 2, though I can't come up with who wore 34 recently. Probably because I'm a little drunk. Anyway, Kendal Shell was a good soldier for four years, and I'd love to put him higher. With 17 career points, however, I cannot.
28. JONATHAN WILLIAMS (2004-2009).
- The longest tenured of anybody on this list with 5 years spent in the maroon and gold, he actually has better total numbers than a lot of people who will be ranked above him but that's a product of those five years. He played in 107 games but never averaged more than 3 points or rebounds per game. Basketball Reference doesn't have his minutes stats for some reason, but he finished his career with under two field goal attempts per game so it's safe to say he didn't get a lot of run (I'm struggling to clearly remember him at all). I went back in my archives to see what I said about him and he's been tagged five times in posts. They're, uh, not good. I found this:
The Ugly: Jon Williams. Forced to play a lot of minutes by Tollackson's foul trouble and Wisconsin's size, and now has me praying Sampson and Iverson can play immediately. Williams was 0-5 shooting, and somehow it was even uglier than that. All five misses were from inside 3 feet, including a missed dunk. He's completely overmatched in the Big Ten, and I don't know if he's fixable at this point.
So there you go.
27. KEVIN PAYTON (2006-2009).
- He just never developed. I remember he was a 3-star, and at 6-6 when he was forced to play point he did it well and I was optimistic. That was silly. He never averaged more than the 2.2 points and 2.5 assists per game that he did as a freshman, and his numbers just kind of, trend down until he did nothing his junior year and then flat out quit playing basketball. Still have no idea what happened here.
26. ANDRE INGRAM (2011-2013).
- A Minnesota kid who came to the Gophers after two years at JuCo I always liked Ingram (to be clear, it has nothing to do with him being a Minnesota kid who came home because I'm not one of those types). He just seemed like he was trying really hard. Unfortunately he just wasn't very good, ending up with career averages of 1.8 points and 1.7 rebounds per game. I've wrote on this blog many times that Andre Ingram was a really intriguing sophomore. Unfortunately he was a senior. And the NCAA has pretty strict rules around eligibility. Fascists.
Thursday, July 2, 2015
Best Gophers of the Tubby Era: #34-31
Throughout the summer I'll be writing up each of the 34 players who played for the University of Minnesota under Tubby Smith. Why Tubby? Because it's the most recent era that's over. If this goes well perhaps I'll go back and do Monson as well. I'll be looking at any player who played at Minnesota under Tubby at some point, even if it was just a year. And I will be considering their entire Gopher career, so guys who started under Monson or finished under Pitino will have their whole career considered, but anyone who transferred in or out is only evaluated on their Gopher stats. With me? Here we go:
34. DOMINIQUE DAWSON (2010-2011).
- This is the one guy I actually don't remember, perhaps because he only played in 10 games in his career totaling just 23 minutes. Unfortunately he only managed four shot attempts and missed them all, and since he never got to the line he ended his Gopher career with 0 total points. Following the 2011 season Dawson transferred to Division II Kentucky-Wesleyan where he averaged 9.5 points and 6.5 rebounds his senior year. Good for him.
33. BRYANT ALLEN (2009-2010).
- I remember Allen, though maybe only because he was going to be a two sport star. Unfortunately he totaled just 7 points on the basketball court (and 21 receptions on the football field) in his brief time as a Gopher. He would then transfer to Illinois State in a recently completed trade for Reggie Lynch and Zach Lofton and drop football to concentrate on hoops. He averaged 8.3 points per game for the Redbirds across two seasons, then was dismissed from the team because of drugs. Well, being arrested for drugs.
32. WALLY ELLENSON (2012-2014).
- He has better stats than a few guys who I'm ranking above him but that's mostly because of his playing time coming from his family using his younger, better brother to hold the coaches hostage. He played in 9 games in both of his seasons here and was terrible. He flashed an insane amount of athleticism to be sure, but shot just 31% for his career on his way to a total of 34 points, mostly because he absolutely loved to shoot and did not care one little bit if he, or anyone else, was open. He also only managed one career steal despite being one of the most athletic guys on the court every time he stepped out there. Basically he was terrible, a chucker, and a whiner with a over involved meddling family and a complete waste of a scholarship. He's at Marquette now and regains eligibility next season so that should be fun. I wish I could rank him lower.
31. CHRIS HALVORSEN (2011-2013).
- I only sort of remember Halvorsen, kind of like if you go to a fourth of July cookout at your wife's friends and one of her friend's husband is there and you get introduced and you make a note that he's the douche wearing his sunglasses backwards. He's a Minnesota kid from Henry Sibley who originally played at Valparaiso before transferring back to walk-on for the Gophers in a move that seems backwards. He didn't play much for the Crusaders so maybe he decided well whatevs, I'd rather sit the bench for the home team which is kind of nice. Played two years and in 16 games totaling 31 minutes, scoring a total of five points. Seems like a good guy.
34. DOMINIQUE DAWSON (2010-2011).
- This is the one guy I actually don't remember, perhaps because he only played in 10 games in his career totaling just 23 minutes. Unfortunately he only managed four shot attempts and missed them all, and since he never got to the line he ended his Gopher career with 0 total points. Following the 2011 season Dawson transferred to Division II Kentucky-Wesleyan where he averaged 9.5 points and 6.5 rebounds his senior year. Good for him.
33. BRYANT ALLEN (2009-2010).
- I remember Allen, though maybe only because he was going to be a two sport star. Unfortunately he totaled just 7 points on the basketball court (and 21 receptions on the football field) in his brief time as a Gopher. He would then transfer to Illinois State in a recently completed trade for Reggie Lynch and Zach Lofton and drop football to concentrate on hoops. He averaged 8.3 points per game for the Redbirds across two seasons, then was dismissed from the team because of drugs. Well, being arrested for drugs.
32. WALLY ELLENSON (2012-2014).
- He has better stats than a few guys who I'm ranking above him but that's mostly because of his playing time coming from his family using his younger, better brother to hold the coaches hostage. He played in 9 games in both of his seasons here and was terrible. He flashed an insane amount of athleticism to be sure, but shot just 31% for his career on his way to a total of 34 points, mostly because he absolutely loved to shoot and did not care one little bit if he, or anyone else, was open. He also only managed one career steal despite being one of the most athletic guys on the court every time he stepped out there. Basically he was terrible, a chucker, and a whiner with a over involved meddling family and a complete waste of a scholarship. He's at Marquette now and regains eligibility next season so that should be fun. I wish I could rank him lower.
31. CHRIS HALVORSEN (2011-2013).
- I only sort of remember Halvorsen, kind of like if you go to a fourth of July cookout at your wife's friends and one of her friend's husband is there and you get introduced and you make a note that he's the douche wearing his sunglasses backwards. He's a Minnesota kid from Henry Sibley who originally played at Valparaiso before transferring back to walk-on for the Gophers in a move that seems backwards. He didn't play much for the Crusaders so maybe he decided well whatevs, I'd rather sit the bench for the home team which is kind of nice. Played two years and in 16 games totaling 31 minutes, scoring a total of five points. Seems like a good guy.
Monday, February 3, 2014
Northwestern 55, Gophers 54
Am I really supposed to write about this game? I've now had an entire day, including a very unsatisfying Super Bowl, to get over the disappointment and I still don't want to write about. However I am pretty sure if I pass on writing on this game I will just quit altogether and as much as I'd like to do that I don't want to do that. So here is a very quick 10 Things I Liked and Didn't Like. Unless I do that thing I sometimes do where I just vomit words all over the screen, then it won't be short.
1. Meet the old boss, same as the new boss? There are a whole lot of things I like about Richard Pitino when compared directly to Tubby Smith. Energy. Players improving. Uptempo game. More imaginative offense. Gameplanning for specific opponents. I am a fan. A big fan. But what is this shit where February is just a shit bath every year? I don't care that Northwestern has some good wins lately and is looking frisky, you don't lose to them at home. There recent success has seen their RPI creep up into the top 100 (#83) so technically this won't go down as a bad loss, but this was a bad loss. I will get into NCAA bid chances later, but even if this one didn't hurt as much as you'd think because of that non-horrible RPI, it really hurts because this is a game you just don't lose if you're an NCAA team.
2. The Gophers got shredded by a terrible offense. Northwestern has shown some success lately due to their tough defense, not a good offense. The Wildcats scored 1.02 points per possession and shot 48% from two and 38% from three. Their season numbers are 0.96, 46.5%, and 30%. Their in-conference numbers are 0.87, 45%, and 27%. They have been awful all year and even worse in Big Ten play, and they lit the Gophers up (at least comparatively). I will grant that Northwestern seemed to hit an awful lot of tough shots, but that shouldn't make a difference. Horrendous defense, and it's been a problem all year. This, however, was the worst.
3. Whining about the refs is really not the way to go. Did the refs miss a foul call on Mathieu and/or Walker at the conclusion of the game? Seems like a strong possibility. I haven't gone back and watched it because I have better things to do like impale each of my fingers with a bamboo skewer, but I've read enough, even from none raging homers, that it sounds like a case can be made that both were fouled. Doesn't matter. First of all, they both had lay-ups and even with a minor foul those shots need to be made. Secondly, the Gophers played so shitty that leaving the final result to the refs is their own fault for letting it get to that point. There are one billion things to worry about from this game before you get to the refs. Not an exaggeration.
4. This team is still way too careless with the ball. I know it seems weird to complain about turnovers after a game where the Gophers only turned it over 8 times and on a percentage basis were below their season average and even below Northwestern's defensive season average, but they're just so careless sometimes. There are turnovers where a team's pressure forces you into bad situations, and then there are turnovers where you just give the ball away for no real reason at all and the Gophers' turnovers yesterday were almost exclusively the latter. I mean you just can't turn the ball over on a simple post entry when the defender isn't even attempting to deny the pass, and that happened at least 3 times with two passes going through Mo Walker's legs like he was some shitty hockey goalie guy. Northwestern doesn't care if they turn you over, so there's no reason to help them out.
5. On the positive side, Austin Hollis appears to be registering a pulse again. 13 points on 5-10 shooting, five rebounds, two assists, and three steals with zero turnovers. Most importantly he looked confident again. Starting with the open scrimmage thing and carrying into the early season Hollins was carrying himself with some serious senior swagger and in general that bodes well for a breakout type final year. I have no idea what happened or when, but he lost all that. The crazy thing about watching college kids is you never quite know what's happening. His girlfriend could have broken up with him or he's struggling in chemistry or he discovered weed (Sammy J -> hi), it could be anything but he just didn't look the same on the court. He still can't shoot for shit, but he's finally doing that thing where he flies all over the floor and grabs boards and gets steals. That's a bunch of games in a row now where he's looked like the old Austin, and with Dre still out hopefully he keeps that up and forgets about that devil woman or derivatives or precipitates or whatever.
6. Daquein McNeil looked pretty good. I was impressed. He played a career high of 24 minutes on Saturday (previous high was 13) and although the box score doesn't jump out at your stupid face if you watched him he looked good for an unheralded freshman. He's clearly passed Maverick on the point guard depth chart, which is a good thing considering outside of a wide open shot Mav is basically a complete disaster with the ball in his hands, and after some early season jitters he seems to have settled in and belies a calm beyond his years. I mentioned to Snacks that McNeil was started to look like he might end up a pretty decent Big Ten player, and we wondered how good he would have ended up being in the Sun Belt or wherever the hell FIU plays. There was a lot of understandable skepticism about a Sun Belt recruit suddenly being taken to the Big Ten and I wasn't sure about it myself, but I'm now glad he ended up a Gopher. I'm sure Dawger still prefers Maverick, but he also thinks Cal Ripken was overrated so what are you gonna do?
7. The Gophers have developed a couple of pet plays and I like them both a lot. The first is pretty basic, but you have to have the right personnel and the Gophers do with Mo Walker. A guard simply enters the ball to Walker at the free throw line and he turns and looks for a baseline cutter. Walker has the basketball savvy and passing skill to make this work (skills that were evident his freshman year as well, unlike his sudden ability to dominate the paint and score like it's his job). This worked a few times against Northwestern which was surprising considering how fundamentally sound they usually are. If the Gophers had won I would probably go back and rewatch these to see how it happened, but as it stands I'd rather rewatch World War Z than this game so forget it. The other play they will break out 2-3 times a game and it's the one they used to get Malik Smith that huge three pointer against Michigan. Dre Mathieu will drive from the right side and take the ball baseline, while two shooters spot up on the opposite side - one in the corner and the other on the wing. With the defense collapsing to stop the drive one of them almost always seems to be open. It seemed to be the corner guy earlier in the season, but as teams have gotten more tape on the play usually it's the wing guy these days, and luckily Mathieu seems to make the right decision. It would be a better play if anybody could shoot on this team, but I like it anyway.
8. Tre Demps is a stone cold assassin. Demps is becoming the kind of guy who you can look at the stats and laugh and stuff but god damn would I love him on my team. Much like Malik Smith is a chucker but he's our chucker, Demps is the same for Northwestern except he's been hitting huge shot after huge shot. Three pointer against the Gophers in a tie game with 54 seconds remaining. Five points and three assists in a four minute span against Wisconsin to give Northwestern control of the game. Game tying 3-pointer with a minute left in overtime against Purdue and then 4-4 on free throws in double OT to close it out. Thirteen straight points at the end of the game against Indiana. Three 3-pointers in a row down the stretch against Illinois. In every single Northwestern Big Ten win this year, and there are a shocking number of them, you can find a stretch where Demps controlled the game for the Wildcats, whether it was a single huge shot or a stretch where he carried their offense. Guy is just owning the Big Ten right now.
9. This team desperately needs Andre Hollins back. It sounds like it's possible he'll be back for Purdue, but more likely Indiana and it can't happen soon enough. I love DeAndre Mathieu a lot, but he's better when he's not forced into being the only creator, and with Hollins down he's the only one who can get into the paint off the dribble. Not to mention he's your best shooter, one of your top defenders, and the clear team leader. I was hoping the team could tread water while they waited for him to get healthy, but this has been more like treading bricks.
10. NCAA hopes aren't dead or anything so calm down nancy. This loss was definitely a hit, but as it currently stands (per ESPN) the RPI is 37 and Strength of Schedule still a robust #6. The Gophers are 2-3 vs. the RPI Top 25, 4-4 vs. the Top 50, and 5-8 vs. the Top 100 - these are all good numbers. Thanks to Northwestern's RPI jump, the Gophers still don't have a bad loss (outside the Top 100), and that's probably just as relevant as anything else on their resume. The issue now is that the home game vs. Northwestern was one everyone was counting on as a win, and with them dropping the game at Nebraska as well suddenly the margin for error is razor thin. The Gophers probably need five more wins, and now only the home games against Penn State and Illinois look like "sure" wins. The next two games are huge, @Purdue and home vs. Indiana. The Gophers don't necessarily need to win both, but it would be awfully nice and then they'd only need to "steal" one of the remaining five games, which is doable. On the one hand, it's nice to even worry about this because I wasn't sure the Gophers would even be a bubble team at the start of the year. On the other hand, this sucks because one week ago the Gophers weren't a bubble team but were solidly in the tournament. Looks like this year is going to be like every other, down to the bubble wire. I really need a year where this isn't the case.
1. Meet the old boss, same as the new boss? There are a whole lot of things I like about Richard Pitino when compared directly to Tubby Smith. Energy. Players improving. Uptempo game. More imaginative offense. Gameplanning for specific opponents. I am a fan. A big fan. But what is this shit where February is just a shit bath every year? I don't care that Northwestern has some good wins lately and is looking frisky, you don't lose to them at home. There recent success has seen their RPI creep up into the top 100 (#83) so technically this won't go down as a bad loss, but this was a bad loss. I will get into NCAA bid chances later, but even if this one didn't hurt as much as you'd think because of that non-horrible RPI, it really hurts because this is a game you just don't lose if you're an NCAA team.
2. The Gophers got shredded by a terrible offense. Northwestern has shown some success lately due to their tough defense, not a good offense. The Wildcats scored 1.02 points per possession and shot 48% from two and 38% from three. Their season numbers are 0.96, 46.5%, and 30%. Their in-conference numbers are 0.87, 45%, and 27%. They have been awful all year and even worse in Big Ten play, and they lit the Gophers up (at least comparatively). I will grant that Northwestern seemed to hit an awful lot of tough shots, but that shouldn't make a difference. Horrendous defense, and it's been a problem all year. This, however, was the worst.
3. Whining about the refs is really not the way to go. Did the refs miss a foul call on Mathieu and/or Walker at the conclusion of the game? Seems like a strong possibility. I haven't gone back and watched it because I have better things to do like impale each of my fingers with a bamboo skewer, but I've read enough, even from none raging homers, that it sounds like a case can be made that both were fouled. Doesn't matter. First of all, they both had lay-ups and even with a minor foul those shots need to be made. Secondly, the Gophers played so shitty that leaving the final result to the refs is their own fault for letting it get to that point. There are one billion things to worry about from this game before you get to the refs. Not an exaggeration.
4. This team is still way too careless with the ball. I know it seems weird to complain about turnovers after a game where the Gophers only turned it over 8 times and on a percentage basis were below their season average and even below Northwestern's defensive season average, but they're just so careless sometimes. There are turnovers where a team's pressure forces you into bad situations, and then there are turnovers where you just give the ball away for no real reason at all and the Gophers' turnovers yesterday were almost exclusively the latter. I mean you just can't turn the ball over on a simple post entry when the defender isn't even attempting to deny the pass, and that happened at least 3 times with two passes going through Mo Walker's legs like he was some shitty hockey goalie guy. Northwestern doesn't care if they turn you over, so there's no reason to help them out.
5. On the positive side, Austin Hollis appears to be registering a pulse again. 13 points on 5-10 shooting, five rebounds, two assists, and three steals with zero turnovers. Most importantly he looked confident again. Starting with the open scrimmage thing and carrying into the early season Hollins was carrying himself with some serious senior swagger and in general that bodes well for a breakout type final year. I have no idea what happened or when, but he lost all that. The crazy thing about watching college kids is you never quite know what's happening. His girlfriend could have broken up with him or he's struggling in chemistry or he discovered weed (Sammy J -> hi), it could be anything but he just didn't look the same on the court. He still can't shoot for shit, but he's finally doing that thing where he flies all over the floor and grabs boards and gets steals. That's a bunch of games in a row now where he's looked like the old Austin, and with Dre still out hopefully he keeps that up and forgets about that devil woman or derivatives or precipitates or whatever.
6. Daquein McNeil looked pretty good. I was impressed. He played a career high of 24 minutes on Saturday (previous high was 13) and although the box score doesn't jump out at your stupid face if you watched him he looked good for an unheralded freshman. He's clearly passed Maverick on the point guard depth chart, which is a good thing considering outside of a wide open shot Mav is basically a complete disaster with the ball in his hands, and after some early season jitters he seems to have settled in and belies a calm beyond his years. I mentioned to Snacks that McNeil was started to look like he might end up a pretty decent Big Ten player, and we wondered how good he would have ended up being in the Sun Belt or wherever the hell FIU plays. There was a lot of understandable skepticism about a Sun Belt recruit suddenly being taken to the Big Ten and I wasn't sure about it myself, but I'm now glad he ended up a Gopher. I'm sure Dawger still prefers Maverick, but he also thinks Cal Ripken was overrated so what are you gonna do?
7. The Gophers have developed a couple of pet plays and I like them both a lot. The first is pretty basic, but you have to have the right personnel and the Gophers do with Mo Walker. A guard simply enters the ball to Walker at the free throw line and he turns and looks for a baseline cutter. Walker has the basketball savvy and passing skill to make this work (skills that were evident his freshman year as well, unlike his sudden ability to dominate the paint and score like it's his job). This worked a few times against Northwestern which was surprising considering how fundamentally sound they usually are. If the Gophers had won I would probably go back and rewatch these to see how it happened, but as it stands I'd rather rewatch World War Z than this game so forget it. The other play they will break out 2-3 times a game and it's the one they used to get Malik Smith that huge three pointer against Michigan. Dre Mathieu will drive from the right side and take the ball baseline, while two shooters spot up on the opposite side - one in the corner and the other on the wing. With the defense collapsing to stop the drive one of them almost always seems to be open. It seemed to be the corner guy earlier in the season, but as teams have gotten more tape on the play usually it's the wing guy these days, and luckily Mathieu seems to make the right decision. It would be a better play if anybody could shoot on this team, but I like it anyway.
8. Tre Demps is a stone cold assassin. Demps is becoming the kind of guy who you can look at the stats and laugh and stuff but god damn would I love him on my team. Much like Malik Smith is a chucker but he's our chucker, Demps is the same for Northwestern except he's been hitting huge shot after huge shot. Three pointer against the Gophers in a tie game with 54 seconds remaining. Five points and three assists in a four minute span against Wisconsin to give Northwestern control of the game. Game tying 3-pointer with a minute left in overtime against Purdue and then 4-4 on free throws in double OT to close it out. Thirteen straight points at the end of the game against Indiana. Three 3-pointers in a row down the stretch against Illinois. In every single Northwestern Big Ten win this year, and there are a shocking number of them, you can find a stretch where Demps controlled the game for the Wildcats, whether it was a single huge shot or a stretch where he carried their offense. Guy is just owning the Big Ten right now.
9. This team desperately needs Andre Hollins back. It sounds like it's possible he'll be back for Purdue, but more likely Indiana and it can't happen soon enough. I love DeAndre Mathieu a lot, but he's better when he's not forced into being the only creator, and with Hollins down he's the only one who can get into the paint off the dribble. Not to mention he's your best shooter, one of your top defenders, and the clear team leader. I was hoping the team could tread water while they waited for him to get healthy, but this has been more like treading bricks.
10. NCAA hopes aren't dead or anything so calm down nancy. This loss was definitely a hit, but as it currently stands (per ESPN) the RPI is 37 and Strength of Schedule still a robust #6. The Gophers are 2-3 vs. the RPI Top 25, 4-4 vs. the Top 50, and 5-8 vs. the Top 100 - these are all good numbers. Thanks to Northwestern's RPI jump, the Gophers still don't have a bad loss (outside the Top 100), and that's probably just as relevant as anything else on their resume. The issue now is that the home game vs. Northwestern was one everyone was counting on as a win, and with them dropping the game at Nebraska as well suddenly the margin for error is razor thin. The Gophers probably need five more wins, and now only the home games against Penn State and Illinois look like "sure" wins. The next two games are huge, @Purdue and home vs. Indiana. The Gophers don't necessarily need to win both, but it would be awfully nice and then they'd only need to "steal" one of the remaining five games, which is doable. On the one hand, it's nice to even worry about this because I wasn't sure the Gophers would even be a bubble team at the start of the year. On the other hand, this sucks because one week ago the Gophers weren't a bubble team but were solidly in the tournament. Looks like this year is going to be like every other, down to the bubble wire. I really need a year where this isn't the case.
Wednesday, July 17, 2013
Gophers to play Syracuse in Maui Invitational
The Brackets were revealed for the Maui Invitational today, and your favorite team will play Syracuse in the first round, a game that is interesting not just because playing a team like the Orange is pretty sweet, but also because the rumored package deal of Isaiah Whitehead and Ja'Quan Newton is also considering the Cuse along with Minnesota. WINNER TAKES ALL.
Interesting clash here, considering the Gophers are almost totally perimeter based right now thanks to the graduation of Mbakwe and Rodney Williams, while the Orange lost Brandon Triche, Michael Carter-Williams, and James Southerland and will be more reliant on inside play than ever with nearly every impact returnee an inside (or wing at best) player. Of course, this being Jim Boeheim and Syracuse and they don't rebuild they just reload, they are bringing in ESPN's #5 point guard (#20 overall) in the country in Tyler Ennis as well as a couple forwards in the Top 100, which means the Cuse will have a huge size advantage over Minnesota but will be relying on a freshman point guard against a veteran laden opposing backcourt as well.
Speaking of point guards and dealing with some difficulties, the Gopher guards will have to contend with Syracuse's vaunted 2-3 zone. The good news is Coach Pitino has experience in game planning for it from his days with Louisville. The bad news is Syracuse's zone will likely be made up of Ennis and four guys who are at least 6-8 with wing spans that could probably cover the entire court end-to end. The other good news, is without the guys who left Syracuse has almost no 3-point shooting unless one of the incoming freshmen is a marksman. The other bad news, is I'm terrified of the Gopher guards going up against this zone, but that's from years of scarring after watching Monson and Tubby coached teams go up against zone defenses and collectively lose their shit. Things should be different with Pitino at the helm. Could be different. Hopefully. Please please please be different.
Anyway, this is a pretty sweet draw, and then in round two they will face either Arkansas or Cal, depending on win/lose. I'm too tired to look it up, but I'm pretty sure Arkansas still sucks and Cal is a fringe NCAA team, so Cal would be the much better match-up but the Gophers would have to beat Cuse to get to them most likely. Right now I'm not sure I see that happening, but hey, hooray for optimism. Looking forward to it.
Elsewhere, brackets for a bunch of the other tournaments were announced as well. Of note:
OLD SPICE CLASSIC (Big Ten rep: PURDUE): The Boilers caught a rough draw in the first round in National Champion contender Oklahoma State (you heard it here first), especially much of the rest of this tournament is blah at best. Outside of Memphis (and OK St) the best team might be LSU (who is supposed to be better this year) and that's an ugly tournament. The good news for the Boilers is they should be able to run right through the loser's bracket to end up going 2-1.
VEGAS INVITATIONAL (Big Ten rep: NORTHWESTERN): It's not a tournament because the matchups are already set between four teams (Northwestern, UCLA, Missouri, and Nevada) with UCLA and Missouri each playing Northwestern and Nevada. Because we aren't getting that UCLA vs. Missouri match-up this is a super boringtournament invitational.
PUERTO RICO TIP-OFF (Big Ten rep: MICHIGAN): Assuming the Wolverines can get past Long Beach, and they should, and VCU can get past FSU, and they should thank you very much Andrew Wiggins, that's a heck of a second round match-up. After Michigan blew up everyone's bracket in dramatic fashion by blowing the doors off VCU last year, I'm interested to see how they handle havoc without either Burke or Hardaway. Georgetown should come out the other side, now that Bruce Weber has another year under his belt at Kansas State and should begin dismantling everything Bob Huggins and Frank Martin built.
LEGENDS CLASSIC: No Big Ten rep in this one, but notable because of Texas Tech and Tubby Smith's appearance. The Red Raiders actually may be able to win their semifinal match-up (there are only 4 teams) against Pitt since the Panthers lost a ton off last year's team, but then they can expect to get their doors blown off by either Stanford or Houston. Neither team is great, but Texas Tech is significantly worse than either. Then again, Tubby has shown an aptitude for getting the most out of his teams in these early tournaments, so maybe his magic will work again. Just watch out for February.
WOODEN LEGACY: This is kind of a crappy tournament with teams like Fullerton and George Washington involved (and on the same side of the bracket for some reason) but there's probably enough intrigue to make this interesting considering how much people want to make sex to Doug McDermott of Creighton. I'm most interested in seeing if Maurice Creek (transferred to GW) can make an impact or if those knees are 100% shot.
There's other tournaments too but they're mostly boring and holy crap did I ever just run out of steam. Go to ESPN or whatever. I'm done here.
Interesting clash here, considering the Gophers are almost totally perimeter based right now thanks to the graduation of Mbakwe and Rodney Williams, while the Orange lost Brandon Triche, Michael Carter-Williams, and James Southerland and will be more reliant on inside play than ever with nearly every impact returnee an inside (or wing at best) player. Of course, this being Jim Boeheim and Syracuse and they don't rebuild they just reload, they are bringing in ESPN's #5 point guard (#20 overall) in the country in Tyler Ennis as well as a couple forwards in the Top 100, which means the Cuse will have a huge size advantage over Minnesota but will be relying on a freshman point guard against a veteran laden opposing backcourt as well.
Speaking of point guards and dealing with some difficulties, the Gopher guards will have to contend with Syracuse's vaunted 2-3 zone. The good news is Coach Pitino has experience in game planning for it from his days with Louisville. The bad news is Syracuse's zone will likely be made up of Ennis and four guys who are at least 6-8 with wing spans that could probably cover the entire court end-to end. The other good news, is without the guys who left Syracuse has almost no 3-point shooting unless one of the incoming freshmen is a marksman. The other bad news, is I'm terrified of the Gopher guards going up against this zone, but that's from years of scarring after watching Monson and Tubby coached teams go up against zone defenses and collectively lose their shit. Things should be different with Pitino at the helm. Could be different. Hopefully. Please please please be different.
Anyway, this is a pretty sweet draw, and then in round two they will face either Arkansas or Cal, depending on win/lose. I'm too tired to look it up, but I'm pretty sure Arkansas still sucks and Cal is a fringe NCAA team, so Cal would be the much better match-up but the Gophers would have to beat Cuse to get to them most likely. Right now I'm not sure I see that happening, but hey, hooray for optimism. Looking forward to it.
Elsewhere, brackets for a bunch of the other tournaments were announced as well. Of note:
OLD SPICE CLASSIC (Big Ten rep: PURDUE): The Boilers caught a rough draw in the first round in National Champion contender Oklahoma State (you heard it here first), especially much of the rest of this tournament is blah at best. Outside of Memphis (and OK St) the best team might be LSU (who is supposed to be better this year) and that's an ugly tournament. The good news for the Boilers is they should be able to run right through the loser's bracket to end up going 2-1.
VEGAS INVITATIONAL (Big Ten rep: NORTHWESTERN): It's not a tournament because the matchups are already set between four teams (Northwestern, UCLA, Missouri, and Nevada) with UCLA and Missouri each playing Northwestern and Nevada. Because we aren't getting that UCLA vs. Missouri match-up this is a super boring
PUERTO RICO TIP-OFF (Big Ten rep: MICHIGAN): Assuming the Wolverines can get past Long Beach, and they should, and VCU can get past FSU, and they should thank you very much Andrew Wiggins, that's a heck of a second round match-up. After Michigan blew up everyone's bracket in dramatic fashion by blowing the doors off VCU last year, I'm interested to see how they handle havoc without either Burke or Hardaway. Georgetown should come out the other side, now that Bruce Weber has another year under his belt at Kansas State and should begin dismantling everything Bob Huggins and Frank Martin built.
LEGENDS CLASSIC: No Big Ten rep in this one, but notable because of Texas Tech and Tubby Smith's appearance. The Red Raiders actually may be able to win their semifinal match-up (there are only 4 teams) against Pitt since the Panthers lost a ton off last year's team, but then they can expect to get their doors blown off by either Stanford or Houston. Neither team is great, but Texas Tech is significantly worse than either. Then again, Tubby has shown an aptitude for getting the most out of his teams in these early tournaments, so maybe his magic will work again. Just watch out for February.
WOODEN LEGACY: This is kind of a crappy tournament with teams like Fullerton and George Washington involved (and on the same side of the bracket for some reason) but there's probably enough intrigue to make this interesting considering how much people want to make sex to Doug McDermott of Creighton. I'm most interested in seeing if Maurice Creek (transferred to GW) can make an impact or if those knees are 100% shot.
There's other tournaments too but they're mostly boring and holy crap did I ever just run out of steam. Go to ESPN or whatever. I'm done here.
Tuesday, April 2, 2013
Gopher/NCAA Talkers
As much as I hate to interrupt a big string of posts by someone who isn't me, thus giving me needed time off, so much is happening and I haven't had a chance to comment on any of it, so it's time to do a quick run down of everything that is going on.
- Speaking of moving on, the latest rumor I've heard is that Scott Drew of Baylor may be a candidate for the Gophers. While Drew is elite in one aspect of being a basketball coach (recruiting) he's also extremely weak in another (game coaching). Everything else being equal I'd take a great recruiter/poor coach over a poor recruiter/game coach, but Drew does very little for me. I know I've said that I don't mind if coach's cheat as long as they win games as well, but I like my cheating to be a little more refined and a little more subtle. I'd rather have a guy cheat and I'm shocked to find out (Clem) than somebody like Drew who is the second guy named by anybody who follows the sport when asked to name the biggest cheaters (after Calipari, who probably doesn't cheat anymore). He's an NCAA investigation waiting to happen, and probably sooner rather than later.
- Gregg Marshall is still my top choice, but the damn Shockers keep winning so we'll have to keep waiting. Which is ok, really. Remember Tubby was fired just over a week ago and most coaching vacancies take at least two weeks to fill, so let's all calm down for a few minutes and let Norwood Teague do what he do.
- As far as the other rumored candidates - Anthony Grant, Buzz Williams, Dwayne Stephens, etc - Teague and the rest of the administration have done a great job keeping a lid on anything factual so far so we can't really even know if these guys are being considered so it's basically pointless to really even discuss them until we know something more concrete. And honestly I really prefer it this way where everything is just a rumor, so then we don't actually know if they're getting turned down left and right and we're going to end up with Andy Enright's head assistant or something. I remember when Tubby was hired and I had no idea he was even being considered. Granted that was an age before Twitter but still, I expect an announcement to come almost out of nowhere and I'm looking forward to it.
- Tubby Smith is the new coach at Texas Tech. It's a good hire for the Red Raiders, and a good fit for Smith at this point in his coaching life cycle. I have very little doubt that Texas Tech will make their way back to the NCAA Tournament at some point in the next five years. I also have very little doubt they won't become a perennial Big 12 title contender, but Smith should be perfect in terms of getting them back to respectability - then it becomes a matter of the program's final goals. This could very easily be the Tubby to Saul hand-off job that I'm pretty sure they were hoping Minnesota would be. Good luck to everyone involved.
- Steve Alford to UCLA and Andy Enfield to USC. I actually think Enfield is a better hire than Alford - well, maybe better fit, not necessarily better hire. Enfield was going to get a promotion, that was pretty obvious, and going to any Pac-12 school is a better fit for his wide open, high-flying, NBA style than a team in the B12 or B10 would have been. I have a feeling he would have flamed out in under 3 years in those conferences, but things should work in the Pac-10 and specifically at USC. I expect the Trojans to be very successful in the next few years.
Alford at UCLA is a big gamble to me, given that it's one of the top jobs in the entire country and he flamed out the last time he was in a major conference. He's done a great job with New Mexico, but some coaches aren't cut out for the biggest stages. This is Alford's second chance and if he blows this one he's going to be a mid-major guy for life. Interested to see if he can restore some luster to the brand. The good news is he shouldn't have to worry about recruiting too much since UCLA pretty much recruits for itself, success'll be dependent on his game coaching and he's always been just so-so there.
- I'll be back later this week with some baseball stuff. I was going to do it tonight but I'm pretty lazy.
- Speaking of moving on, the latest rumor I've heard is that Scott Drew of Baylor may be a candidate for the Gophers. While Drew is elite in one aspect of being a basketball coach (recruiting) he's also extremely weak in another (game coaching). Everything else being equal I'd take a great recruiter/poor coach over a poor recruiter/game coach, but Drew does very little for me. I know I've said that I don't mind if coach's cheat as long as they win games as well, but I like my cheating to be a little more refined and a little more subtle. I'd rather have a guy cheat and I'm shocked to find out (Clem) than somebody like Drew who is the second guy named by anybody who follows the sport when asked to name the biggest cheaters (after Calipari, who probably doesn't cheat anymore). He's an NCAA investigation waiting to happen, and probably sooner rather than later.
- Gregg Marshall is still my top choice, but the damn Shockers keep winning so we'll have to keep waiting. Which is ok, really. Remember Tubby was fired just over a week ago and most coaching vacancies take at least two weeks to fill, so let's all calm down for a few minutes and let Norwood Teague do what he do.
- As far as the other rumored candidates - Anthony Grant, Buzz Williams, Dwayne Stephens, etc - Teague and the rest of the administration have done a great job keeping a lid on anything factual so far so we can't really even know if these guys are being considered so it's basically pointless to really even discuss them until we know something more concrete. And honestly I really prefer it this way where everything is just a rumor, so then we don't actually know if they're getting turned down left and right and we're going to end up with Andy Enright's head assistant or something. I remember when Tubby was hired and I had no idea he was even being considered. Granted that was an age before Twitter but still, I expect an announcement to come almost out of nowhere and I'm looking forward to it.
- Tubby Smith is the new coach at Texas Tech. It's a good hire for the Red Raiders, and a good fit for Smith at this point in his coaching life cycle. I have very little doubt that Texas Tech will make their way back to the NCAA Tournament at some point in the next five years. I also have very little doubt they won't become a perennial Big 12 title contender, but Smith should be perfect in terms of getting them back to respectability - then it becomes a matter of the program's final goals. This could very easily be the Tubby to Saul hand-off job that I'm pretty sure they were hoping Minnesota would be. Good luck to everyone involved.
- Steve Alford to UCLA and Andy Enfield to USC. I actually think Enfield is a better hire than Alford - well, maybe better fit, not necessarily better hire. Enfield was going to get a promotion, that was pretty obvious, and going to any Pac-12 school is a better fit for his wide open, high-flying, NBA style than a team in the B12 or B10 would have been. I have a feeling he would have flamed out in under 3 years in those conferences, but things should work in the Pac-10 and specifically at USC. I expect the Trojans to be very successful in the next few years.
Alford at UCLA is a big gamble to me, given that it's one of the top jobs in the entire country and he flamed out the last time he was in a major conference. He's done a great job with New Mexico, but some coaches aren't cut out for the biggest stages. This is Alford's second chance and if he blows this one he's going to be a mid-major guy for life. Interested to see if he can restore some luster to the brand. The good news is he shouldn't have to worry about recruiting too much since UCLA pretty much recruits for itself, success'll be dependent on his game coaching and he's always been just so-so there.
- I'll be back later this week with some baseball stuff. I was going to do it tonight but I'm pretty lazy.
Thursday, March 28, 2013
Swing and a Miss (bring on Flip)
You have to hand it to Norwood Teague, the man's got balls. To fire Tubby Smith after the Gophers won an NCAA Tournament game for the first time in forever was gutsy. To do it so quickly after the Gophers were ousted by Florida said to me that Teague had a plan in place and was moving quickly to make it a reality. And now, with Shaka Smart signing an extension through 2023 to stay at VCU I fear things are going to becoming quite icky.
In my mind there's only one more home run hire, and that's Flip (and yes, Brad Stevens but you can forget it). Flip comes with plenty of question marks (but who doesn't) but he's the one I think can be an almost instant program changer. Three things I love:
1) He has a love for the program and the city loves him. There's something about bringing passion to your team that goes deeper than just being the coach that seems to resonate, and having a town behind you can raise the excitement level further which can only help with recruiting and fundraising (which is needed for a practice facility which I'm told is needed to aid recruiting).
2) He already has a relationship with the Big 3. Going beyond that his connections within NBA circles are only going to make playing for him that much more enticing. If Flip ends up being the hire in my opinion getting all three of them at the U suddenly is actually a possibility and I would almost guarantee at least one would stay home. If the hire ends up being anybody else, I'm not optimistic even one becomes a Gopher.
3) He can play a pro-style offense. There's evidence that playing an NBA style game can work at the college level (Florida Gulf Coast's coach is an ex-NBA assistant and he has them playing an NBA type game) so not only can that help win games but it's exciting - which recruits love - and helps players prepare for the NBA - which recruits love.
Last coaching search I was anti-Flip because he was an NBA guy, not a college guy. This time I am all in on Flip for the opposite reason.
My concern is that Teague might not even consider him, because of ego (and I'm not using ego in the negative sense here). Firing Tubby when he did was Teague's way of announcing that this is his athletic department and this is his chance to make a big-time hire, but I can't help but wonder if he'd view hiring Flip as more of Saunders making the decision to come here rather than Teague hiring him. What I mean is, I can see it being looked at as a "Flip hire" rather than a "Teague hire" and I don't know how else to explain it so if you don't get it either you're an idiot or I am and I'm betting it's you.
I think part of it is the Villa 7 thing they've built up, and I don't doubt it's a great thing for all involved, but I can't help but wonder if they're limiting their options by using Villa 7 exclusively when evaluating their options. The top 2 names out there right now seems to Buzz Williams (/makes wanking motion) and Anthony Grant (/yawn) and both have connections to Villa 7. Oh and by the way, there's no reason Buzz Williams would come to Minnesota from Marquette. None. So just stop it. Neither is Fred Hoiberg or any other dream candidate.
I think the plan was Shaka or bust, and they've gone bust. Time to reevaluate and strongly consider Flip Saunders if you're looking for a game changer. Anybody else and we're looking at a slow build, and we just went through a slow build that ended with a whimper on the eve of the best recruiting class the state of Minnesota has ever produced. I can't believe I'm typing this, but the Gophers need Flip.
But I'm pretty sure it's going to be Anthony Grant, which may very well turn out to be great in the long run. I'm just sick of the long run.
In my mind there's only one more home run hire, and that's Flip (and yes, Brad Stevens but you can forget it). Flip comes with plenty of question marks (but who doesn't) but he's the one I think can be an almost instant program changer. Three things I love:
1) He has a love for the program and the city loves him. There's something about bringing passion to your team that goes deeper than just being the coach that seems to resonate, and having a town behind you can raise the excitement level further which can only help with recruiting and fundraising (which is needed for a practice facility which I'm told is needed to aid recruiting).
2) He already has a relationship with the Big 3. Going beyond that his connections within NBA circles are only going to make playing for him that much more enticing. If Flip ends up being the hire in my opinion getting all three of them at the U suddenly is actually a possibility and I would almost guarantee at least one would stay home. If the hire ends up being anybody else, I'm not optimistic even one becomes a Gopher.
3) He can play a pro-style offense. There's evidence that playing an NBA style game can work at the college level (Florida Gulf Coast's coach is an ex-NBA assistant and he has them playing an NBA type game) so not only can that help win games but it's exciting - which recruits love - and helps players prepare for the NBA - which recruits love.
Last coaching search I was anti-Flip because he was an NBA guy, not a college guy. This time I am all in on Flip for the opposite reason.
My concern is that Teague might not even consider him, because of ego (and I'm not using ego in the negative sense here). Firing Tubby when he did was Teague's way of announcing that this is his athletic department and this is his chance to make a big-time hire, but I can't help but wonder if he'd view hiring Flip as more of Saunders making the decision to come here rather than Teague hiring him. What I mean is, I can see it being looked at as a "Flip hire" rather than a "Teague hire" and I don't know how else to explain it so if you don't get it either you're an idiot or I am and I'm betting it's you.
I think part of it is the Villa 7 thing they've built up, and I don't doubt it's a great thing for all involved, but I can't help but wonder if they're limiting their options by using Villa 7 exclusively when evaluating their options. The top 2 names out there right now seems to Buzz Williams (/makes wanking motion) and Anthony Grant (/yawn) and both have connections to Villa 7. Oh and by the way, there's no reason Buzz Williams would come to Minnesota from Marquette. None. So just stop it. Neither is Fred Hoiberg or any other dream candidate.
I think the plan was Shaka or bust, and they've gone bust. Time to reevaluate and strongly consider Flip Saunders if you're looking for a game changer. Anybody else and we're looking at a slow build, and we just went through a slow build that ended with a whimper on the eve of the best recruiting class the state of Minnesota has ever produced. I can't believe I'm typing this, but the Gophers need Flip.
But I'm pretty sure it's going to be Anthony Grant, which may very well turn out to be great in the long run. I'm just sick of the long run.
Tuesday, March 26, 2013
Where to now?
Things move pretty fast. Before I could even finish wondering what I was going to write about the Gophers this weekend while trying to piece together what actually happened from Bogart and Bear, the Gophers are done, Tubby is out, and it already feels like old news that the Gophers won a game, so it's time to move one. A few notes from our weekend in Chicago:
1. Andre Hollins is awesome, and would be even more so if he didn't have to be the #1 ball-handler.
2. I think I'm going to miss Rodney Williams more than any other Gopher I can remember, just because you knew he was going to do something in almost every game that would make your jaw drop.
3. When the waitress describes a Tucson Trashcan as "basically a Long-Island Iced tea but with red bull instead of coke and it comes in a 32-oz glass" you're probably better off skipping it, and it's definitely not wise to have each person order their own particularly at one in the afternoon.
4. The biggest danger of firing Tubby, in my opinion, isn't that it might hurt getting Travis, Vaughn, or Jones because I have yet to hear or read anything that makes me think Tubby was remotely close to landing any of those guys. I think the biggest danger is losing anyone off this year's team, specifically the Hollins's or Elliason because I don't know how you'd replace any of them.
So now what? I know the majority of hardcore Gopher fans either straight up wanted Tubby fired or, like me, certainly don't have a problem with it but the odds are just as great this is a step back as much as it is a step forward. Despite all the issues and wasted opportunities Tubby Smith certainly wasn't a "terrible" coach even if I called him such in the heat of the moment. He brought respectability back to the program, getting top 100 recruits to come to Minneapolis (and some of them even stayed), keeping the top Minnesota kids home (except for the one who got kicked out), and bringing the Gophers to 3 NCAA Tournaments in six years, a monumental task when you look at the years prior to his arrival, even winning a game this year.
Given all that, from the outside I can understand some of confusion about this move around the nation, even if the anger is pretty clearly misplaced and coming from somewhere it shouldn't, but anyone who follows the program knows this is as far as Smith is taking the Gophers, that much became clear and despite what some analysts think I believe we can get more out of this program. There is plenty of risk as I mentioned because it's not easy to recruit here - no practice facility, it's freezing during the biggest recruiting period (which means all the girls are bundled up which gives southern teams another advantage), and although if you grew up with the Barn you love it you could make a pretty compelling argument to a 17-18 year old kid that it's a dump. With Nebraska throwing all that money at the basketball program, Iowa returning to respectability, and Iowa State and Fred Hoiberg suddenly a hot destination things are just going to get tougher. Remember when Glen Mason was fired for being consistently mediocre which led to the program falling off a cliff? That's why this hire needs to be a home run.
Who would be a home run? I see three different tiers of hire:
1) The dream hires. Shaka Smart starts this list, and with his past with Teague and Ellis it's more possible than many seem to think, although with UCLA out there as well that makes it a bit more iffy, in my opinion. He has risk - specifically if he can recruit at this level if Havoc will work in the Big 10 (Michigan says no) - but he's still the #1 hire out there because every other dream hire has risks as well. I'd put just three other guys up here and two of them (Gregg Marshall, Brad Stevens) would have recruiting questions (and I don't think either would take the job) and Flip Saunders certainly has connections but who knows if he can coach or recruit at this level? Based on the success of Hoiberg in Ames, however, as well as Flip's clear passion for the program that jumps out if you follow him on Twitter he's won me over from "Meh" to "Yeah, I'll call him a dream hire."
1a) There's a few guys I can think of who although I wouldn't consider them "dream hires" I wouldn't hate them like the tier 3 guys below either - Chris Mack (Xavier), Anthony Grant (Alabama), Josh Pastner (Memphis), Buzz Williams (Marquette) - and a few others I can't think of off the top of my head. Although I'd be on board with these guys and others, I doubt any of them take the job. If they do, we re-evaluate, but I'd consider any of those guys as a good pick up.
2) Good hires who will underwhelm based on name alone. Closely related to tier 3 below, it's tough to really call out any of these because by definition they're guys very few of us will have heard of who Teague and Ellis identified thanks to the Villa 7 program. This could be anyone from the Florida Gulf Coast guy (I trust these guys can recognize a flash-in-the-pan vs. an actual coaching genius) or an assistant from some other program (although please not anyone from Wisconsin, I couldn't handle that style of play). This will be the kind of hire that will get plenty of less informed fans all riled up and get guys like Mike Wilbon to gloat about the Gophers making a mistake letting Tubby go. Trust me, if Teague goes in this direction you should consider that a positive. The real mistake would be hiring someone from tier 3.
3) Bad hires with name recognition. Chris Mooney would be a terrible hire because he's just like Dan Monson, who got hot at the right time and then sucked. Richmond has been horrible since they're sweet 16 run a couple of years ago. Ben Howland would be terrible because he was just run out of UCLA and would just be another Tubby Smith hire. I kind of feel the same way about Jay Wright from Villanova, but I'd place him a step above these guys I guess. Bruce Pearl is super duper annoying and can't really coach although he's a hell of a recruiter as long as he's cheating, and I've always supported cheating but I still don't really want this guy.
Bottom line? I think Teague was pretty much ready to make a change when he arrived, and this season confirmed in his mind that he could do better. I think he and Ellis are very confident in their ability to land a coach who can bring this program to the next level after their success with Anthony Grant, Shaka Smart, and the overall success of coaches connected to the Villa 7 program. I was ready for a change as well, so I'm willing to believe in them until they give me a reason not to. I was behind Tubby for five years, so I'm willing to give the new management at least that long.
Probably.
1. Andre Hollins is awesome, and would be even more so if he didn't have to be the #1 ball-handler.
2. I think I'm going to miss Rodney Williams more than any other Gopher I can remember, just because you knew he was going to do something in almost every game that would make your jaw drop.
3. When the waitress describes a Tucson Trashcan as "basically a Long-Island Iced tea but with red bull instead of coke and it comes in a 32-oz glass" you're probably better off skipping it, and it's definitely not wise to have each person order their own particularly at one in the afternoon.
4. The biggest danger of firing Tubby, in my opinion, isn't that it might hurt getting Travis, Vaughn, or Jones because I have yet to hear or read anything that makes me think Tubby was remotely close to landing any of those guys. I think the biggest danger is losing anyone off this year's team, specifically the Hollins's or Elliason because I don't know how you'd replace any of them.
So now what? I know the majority of hardcore Gopher fans either straight up wanted Tubby fired or, like me, certainly don't have a problem with it but the odds are just as great this is a step back as much as it is a step forward. Despite all the issues and wasted opportunities Tubby Smith certainly wasn't a "terrible" coach even if I called him such in the heat of the moment. He brought respectability back to the program, getting top 100 recruits to come to Minneapolis (and some of them even stayed), keeping the top Minnesota kids home (except for the one who got kicked out), and bringing the Gophers to 3 NCAA Tournaments in six years, a monumental task when you look at the years prior to his arrival, even winning a game this year.
Given all that, from the outside I can understand some of confusion about this move around the nation, even if the anger is pretty clearly misplaced and coming from somewhere it shouldn't, but anyone who follows the program knows this is as far as Smith is taking the Gophers, that much became clear and despite what some analysts think I believe we can get more out of this program. There is plenty of risk as I mentioned because it's not easy to recruit here - no practice facility, it's freezing during the biggest recruiting period (which means all the girls are bundled up which gives southern teams another advantage), and although if you grew up with the Barn you love it you could make a pretty compelling argument to a 17-18 year old kid that it's a dump. With Nebraska throwing all that money at the basketball program, Iowa returning to respectability, and Iowa State and Fred Hoiberg suddenly a hot destination things are just going to get tougher. Remember when Glen Mason was fired for being consistently mediocre which led to the program falling off a cliff? That's why this hire needs to be a home run.
Who would be a home run? I see three different tiers of hire:
1) The dream hires. Shaka Smart starts this list, and with his past with Teague and Ellis it's more possible than many seem to think, although with UCLA out there as well that makes it a bit more iffy, in my opinion. He has risk - specifically if he can recruit at this level if Havoc will work in the Big 10 (Michigan says no) - but he's still the #1 hire out there because every other dream hire has risks as well. I'd put just three other guys up here and two of them (Gregg Marshall, Brad Stevens) would have recruiting questions (and I don't think either would take the job) and Flip Saunders certainly has connections but who knows if he can coach or recruit at this level? Based on the success of Hoiberg in Ames, however, as well as Flip's clear passion for the program that jumps out if you follow him on Twitter he's won me over from "Meh" to "Yeah, I'll call him a dream hire."
1a) There's a few guys I can think of who although I wouldn't consider them "dream hires" I wouldn't hate them like the tier 3 guys below either - Chris Mack (Xavier), Anthony Grant (Alabama), Josh Pastner (Memphis), Buzz Williams (Marquette) - and a few others I can't think of off the top of my head. Although I'd be on board with these guys and others, I doubt any of them take the job. If they do, we re-evaluate, but I'd consider any of those guys as a good pick up.
2) Good hires who will underwhelm based on name alone. Closely related to tier 3 below, it's tough to really call out any of these because by definition they're guys very few of us will have heard of who Teague and Ellis identified thanks to the Villa 7 program. This could be anyone from the Florida Gulf Coast guy (I trust these guys can recognize a flash-in-the-pan vs. an actual coaching genius) or an assistant from some other program (although please not anyone from Wisconsin, I couldn't handle that style of play). This will be the kind of hire that will get plenty of less informed fans all riled up and get guys like Mike Wilbon to gloat about the Gophers making a mistake letting Tubby go. Trust me, if Teague goes in this direction you should consider that a positive. The real mistake would be hiring someone from tier 3.
3) Bad hires with name recognition. Chris Mooney would be a terrible hire because he's just like Dan Monson, who got hot at the right time and then sucked. Richmond has been horrible since they're sweet 16 run a couple of years ago. Ben Howland would be terrible because he was just run out of UCLA and would just be another Tubby Smith hire. I kind of feel the same way about Jay Wright from Villanova, but I'd place him a step above these guys I guess. Bruce Pearl is super duper annoying and can't really coach although he's a hell of a recruiter as long as he's cheating, and I've always supported cheating but I still don't really want this guy.
Bottom line? I think Teague was pretty much ready to make a change when he arrived, and this season confirmed in his mind that he could do better. I think he and Ellis are very confident in their ability to land a coach who can bring this program to the next level after their success with Anthony Grant, Shaka Smart, and the overall success of coaches connected to the Villa 7 program. I was ready for a change as well, so I'm willing to believe in them until they give me a reason not to. I was behind Tubby for five years, so I'm willing to give the new management at least that long.
Probably.
Monday, March 25, 2013
He Gone
I certainly wasn't expected to be writing this post quite this quickly, but it's now confirmed that Tubby is out at Minnesota. I actually thought the first round win over UCLA would save him, but apparently not and so it's time to move on.
I expect there to be plenty of shock and outrage in the National Media talking about "who do the Gophers think they are" and what not, but I'm sorry there's not reason this program shouldn't be at least the NCAA hunt every single year. Perhaps worst of all was watching Smith's seemingly inability to coach, whether game planning before the game or in-game adjustments. Add in the state of recruiting and the importance of getting at least one of Tyus Jones, Rashad Vaugh, or Reid Travis and it makes sense to move quickly The simple fact alone that I wrote like four different posts wondering what was wrong with Smith tells me all I need to know about it being time to move on.
So now we wait. I'll have plenty more posts coming about the coaching possibilities as well as recapping the Gophers weekend and trying to remember anything that happened in Chicago this weekend, but I wanted to get these thoughts up quickly. I'm not celebrating Tubby's firing today, but I do think it was the right move. Hard to believe it's been that long since the Smith hiring and the program is only slightly better off that where it was when Tubby took over. Hell, I started this blog within a few days of his hiring, so it would probably make sense to shut 'er down along with Tubby - but I'm not going to.
I'll be back with more later. Probably.
I expect there to be plenty of shock and outrage in the National Media talking about "who do the Gophers think they are" and what not, but I'm sorry there's not reason this program shouldn't be at least the NCAA hunt every single year. Perhaps worst of all was watching Smith's seemingly inability to coach, whether game planning before the game or in-game adjustments. Add in the state of recruiting and the importance of getting at least one of Tyus Jones, Rashad Vaugh, or Reid Travis and it makes sense to move quickly The simple fact alone that I wrote like four different posts wondering what was wrong with Smith tells me all I need to know about it being time to move on.
So now we wait. I'll have plenty more posts coming about the coaching possibilities as well as recapping the Gophers weekend and trying to remember anything that happened in Chicago this weekend, but I wanted to get these thoughts up quickly. I'm not celebrating Tubby's firing today, but I do think it was the right move. Hard to believe it's been that long since the Smith hiring and the program is only slightly better off that where it was when Tubby took over. Hell, I started this blog within a few days of his hiring, so it would probably make sense to shut 'er down along with Tubby - but I'm not going to.
I'll be back with more later. Probably.
Tuesday, March 19, 2013
NCAA Game #1 Preview: Gophers vs. UCLA
The Gophers are seeded 11th in the NCAA Tournament this week, which was a good break because the sixth seeds as a group are fairly week and pretty vulnerable. Even better, the Gophers couldn't have secured a better match-up than UCLA, which is why, despite all their warts and their limping into the tournament, the Gophers actually find themselves a 3-point favorite.
The biggest issue for UCLA is with an injury, as freshman swingman Jordan Adams, the team's second leading scorer, broke his foot in the Pac-12 tournament semi-final win over Arizona and will miss the remainder of the season (the Bruins then lost in the championship to Oregon by 9). With transfers of some key pieces to begin the year (both Josh Smith and Tyler Lamb bugged out) the Bruins now have just seven players who appeared in more than five games this year. Considering UCLA is an up-tempo team (35th fastest team in D-I) who knows how this affects their game plan, and if there is any foul trouble at all they could be in bad shape quickly.
Also putting them in bad shape? They have absolutely nobody who can guard Trevor Mbakwe. I mean nobody. Their two big men, David and Travis Wear, and neither athletic nor particularly strong. They are finesse bigs, kind of like a really poor man's Cody Zeller, and if you recall Mbakwe had a double-double in both games against Indiana including a 21-12 at Williams where he destroyed Zeller. The Wears do have a couple of inches on him, but I don't expect that to matter. The only other option Ben Howland will have is bringing freshman Tony Parker off the bench, but Parker is raw, fat (6-9, 275 lbs.), and Howland clearly doesn't trust him (averaged just 6 minutes per game and he's played a grand total of 14 minutes in their last six games). Parker may have the strength to at least both Mbakwe a little bit, but in the athleticism department he gets blown away. Another possibility is 6-8 freshman Kyle Anderson, but he's more of a perimeter player (despite averaging 8.6 rebs per game he's not a "on the block" kind of guy). They literally have no other options.
I'm going to stop right here and say this again. UCLA HAS NOBODY WHO CAN GUARD TREVOR MBAKWE. They don't. The Gophers need to feed him the ball. Over and over and over. He should touch the ball in or near the paint on every single possession he's in the game. It's that simple. It should become clear quickly they'll have to double him, and then it will come down to if the Gophers can make open shots. Either than or UCLA will switch to zone, in which case the Gophers offensive rebounding should kill them because the Bruins are a horrible rebounding team. If the Gophers make Mbakwe the focal point of their offense on Friday they should win this game.
I could stop right here, but I want to type more.
First, I don't trust Tubby and/or the players to get Mbakwe the ball on every possession. I'm hoping for the best, but wouldn't be shocked to see him with 4 field goal attempts again. Well, actually he should have more than that because he should end up with 5-8 offensive rebounds himself, but you know what I mean.
Secondly, UCLA has maybe the best individual player in this tournament in Shabazz Muhammad, and that's always a bit terrifying (ask Duke re: Derrick Williams). Sometimes a player like this can get so hot, so dialed in, that nothing a defense can do can stop them and they can carry their team to victory after victory. Muhammad is that kind of talent. He can score inside, he can score outside. He can drive to the paint, he can hit the jumper. If he's fully engaged he's a handful - but therein lies the rub for UCLA.
There have plenty of articles I've seen asking if Muhammad already has one foot out the door to the NBA and pretty much announced he was one and done before recruiting even got serious. Howland already announced he was leaving after this year, and the vibes coming out of Westwood it just feels like everybody's ready to pack-up and move on. From the issues that came out last year with Howland and Reeves Nelson, overall team discipline issues, and several transfers it just feels like everybody is ready to be done and move on (note: sounds like Howland is likely gone, which really creates extra competition for Shaka Smart if the Gophers move in that direction). With a kid who has had "NBA lock" written all over him for years it's not surprising Muhammad has mailed it in a few times this year (double digits rebounds just 3 times this year, 20+ points just once in his last 6 games, one steal in the last 4 combined, the game when he shot 11 three-pointers despite making just two). Who knows what UCLA gets out of him? I read he seemed more intense during the Pac-12 Tournament so maybe they get a fully focused Muhammad, but maybe not.
Outside of Muhammad the offense basically breaks down into North Carolina cast-off Larry Drew (yes, he transferred but the Heel fans were happy to see him go) breaking down his man off the dribble and creating opportunities for the other Bruins (Kyle Anderson, both Wears, and Norman Powell are all decent jump shooters even if none are even mediocre three-point threats). Drew isn't much of a scorer himself but he does do well getting into the lane to set-up others. Outside of not letting Muhammad go off (this is a wonderful test for Rodney Williams to prove his draft worthiness if he gets that call, FYI, although personally I think Austin Hollins is probably a better play) having Dre Hollins be able to handle Drew 1-on-1 is the #1 defensive key to the game.
Let's face it - this game sets up perfectly for the Gophers. What's their #1 strength? Rebounding. What's UCLA's #1 weakness? Rebounding. What's the Gophers #1 weakness? Guarding against the 3 and half-court offense. UCLA? Don't shoot the three at all (and their #1 guy was Adams) and try to run-and-gun which should give the Gophers plenty of transition opportunities. The Bruins #1 strength? They don't turn the ball over, but the Gophers don't rely on turnovers anyway (and they create their additional opportunities from offensive rebounds). Think the "vibe" around this team is off? It's even worse at UCLA where Howland's dismissal slip is probably already half-filled out and most of the players are sick of him (I don't think the Gophers and Tubby have reached this stage yet).
The scariest thing about this game for the Gophers is how perfectly it sets up for the Gophers. As a life long Minnesota sports fan I know that's when things usually go wrong, and yet, as a life long Minnesota sports fan I keep getting sucked back in. I'm buying.
Gophers 73, UCLA 66. Round 2: Gophers 60, Florida 88.
The biggest issue for UCLA is with an injury, as freshman swingman Jordan Adams, the team's second leading scorer, broke his foot in the Pac-12 tournament semi-final win over Arizona and will miss the remainder of the season (the Bruins then lost in the championship to Oregon by 9). With transfers of some key pieces to begin the year (both Josh Smith and Tyler Lamb bugged out) the Bruins now have just seven players who appeared in more than five games this year. Considering UCLA is an up-tempo team (35th fastest team in D-I) who knows how this affects their game plan, and if there is any foul trouble at all they could be in bad shape quickly.
Also putting them in bad shape? They have absolutely nobody who can guard Trevor Mbakwe. I mean nobody. Their two big men, David and Travis Wear, and neither athletic nor particularly strong. They are finesse bigs, kind of like a really poor man's Cody Zeller, and if you recall Mbakwe had a double-double in both games against Indiana including a 21-12 at Williams where he destroyed Zeller. The Wears do have a couple of inches on him, but I don't expect that to matter. The only other option Ben Howland will have is bringing freshman Tony Parker off the bench, but Parker is raw, fat (6-9, 275 lbs.), and Howland clearly doesn't trust him (averaged just 6 minutes per game and he's played a grand total of 14 minutes in their last six games). Parker may have the strength to at least both Mbakwe a little bit, but in the athleticism department he gets blown away. Another possibility is 6-8 freshman Kyle Anderson, but he's more of a perimeter player (despite averaging 8.6 rebs per game he's not a "on the block" kind of guy). They literally have no other options.
I'm going to stop right here and say this again. UCLA HAS NOBODY WHO CAN GUARD TREVOR MBAKWE. They don't. The Gophers need to feed him the ball. Over and over and over. He should touch the ball in or near the paint on every single possession he's in the game. It's that simple. It should become clear quickly they'll have to double him, and then it will come down to if the Gophers can make open shots. Either than or UCLA will switch to zone, in which case the Gophers offensive rebounding should kill them because the Bruins are a horrible rebounding team. If the Gophers make Mbakwe the focal point of their offense on Friday they should win this game.
I could stop right here, but I want to type more.
First, I don't trust Tubby and/or the players to get Mbakwe the ball on every possession. I'm hoping for the best, but wouldn't be shocked to see him with 4 field goal attempts again. Well, actually he should have more than that because he should end up with 5-8 offensive rebounds himself, but you know what I mean.
Secondly, UCLA has maybe the best individual player in this tournament in Shabazz Muhammad, and that's always a bit terrifying (ask Duke re: Derrick Williams). Sometimes a player like this can get so hot, so dialed in, that nothing a defense can do can stop them and they can carry their team to victory after victory. Muhammad is that kind of talent. He can score inside, he can score outside. He can drive to the paint, he can hit the jumper. If he's fully engaged he's a handful - but therein lies the rub for UCLA.
There have plenty of articles I've seen asking if Muhammad already has one foot out the door to the NBA and pretty much announced he was one and done before recruiting even got serious. Howland already announced he was leaving after this year, and the vibes coming out of Westwood it just feels like everybody's ready to pack-up and move on. From the issues that came out last year with Howland and Reeves Nelson, overall team discipline issues, and several transfers it just feels like everybody is ready to be done and move on (note: sounds like Howland is likely gone, which really creates extra competition for Shaka Smart if the Gophers move in that direction). With a kid who has had "NBA lock" written all over him for years it's not surprising Muhammad has mailed it in a few times this year (double digits rebounds just 3 times this year, 20+ points just once in his last 6 games, one steal in the last 4 combined, the game when he shot 11 three-pointers despite making just two). Who knows what UCLA gets out of him? I read he seemed more intense during the Pac-12 Tournament so maybe they get a fully focused Muhammad, but maybe not.
Outside of Muhammad the offense basically breaks down into North Carolina cast-off Larry Drew (yes, he transferred but the Heel fans were happy to see him go) breaking down his man off the dribble and creating opportunities for the other Bruins (Kyle Anderson, both Wears, and Norman Powell are all decent jump shooters even if none are even mediocre three-point threats). Drew isn't much of a scorer himself but he does do well getting into the lane to set-up others. Outside of not letting Muhammad go off (this is a wonderful test for Rodney Williams to prove his draft worthiness if he gets that call, FYI, although personally I think Austin Hollins is probably a better play) having Dre Hollins be able to handle Drew 1-on-1 is the #1 defensive key to the game.
Let's face it - this game sets up perfectly for the Gophers. What's their #1 strength? Rebounding. What's UCLA's #1 weakness? Rebounding. What's the Gophers #1 weakness? Guarding against the 3 and half-court offense. UCLA? Don't shoot the three at all (and their #1 guy was Adams) and try to run-and-gun which should give the Gophers plenty of transition opportunities. The Bruins #1 strength? They don't turn the ball over, but the Gophers don't rely on turnovers anyway (and they create their additional opportunities from offensive rebounds). Think the "vibe" around this team is off? It's even worse at UCLA where Howland's dismissal slip is probably already half-filled out and most of the players are sick of him (I don't think the Gophers and Tubby have reached this stage yet).
The scariest thing about this game for the Gophers is how perfectly it sets up for the Gophers. As a life long Minnesota sports fan I know that's when things usually go wrong, and yet, as a life long Minnesota sports fan I keep getting sucked back in. I'm buying.
Gophers 73, UCLA 66. Round 2: Gophers 60, Florida 88.
Saturday, March 9, 2013
Purdue beats Gophers 89-73 - what else is there to say?
I feel like I've said this already multiple times this season, but what else is left to say? The Gophers allowed a team that is under .500 on the season to shoot 54% for the game, turned them over just 8 times, and let them score 89 points. You're simply not going to win that way. That's another bad loss, another road loss, and another black mark against the Gophers in the "finish strong" category. I don't think it matters what happens in the Big Ten Tournament they're going to be in the NCAA Tournament, but the seed has slipped so far at this point and the team is just playing so horrendously away from Williams that I'm not sure it matters. That was some of the worst defense I can remember seeing in a long, long time. Purdue seemingly had a Johnson penetrating at all times (hee hee) and the Gophers couldn't stop any of them. Just ridiculous.
The one thing that has kept me somewhat engaged as this season spirals off into oblivion is the possibility that this isn't so much a home thing as it's an away thing. What I mean is, maybe the Gophers aren't materially changed by being at Williams, but that they can't handle an opposing team's gym and crowd and a neutral court will work for them. Remember they played pretty well at the Battle 4 Atlantis, taking down both Memphis and Stanford and not getting completely killed from the tip by Duke. That's my big hope right now, an d it's a big reason why I'd rather see them get an 11 seed than a 7 (anything higher than a 7 is out the window at this point) because then they avoid a 1 or 2 seed and the "protection" situation of playing Kansas in Kansas City or something and having it not be technically a home game since KU is in Lawrence but 90% of the crowd is Jayhawk fans.
Where do they go from here? No clue, man. It's obvious that the same problems keep resurfacing year after year, and that has to be on the coach. An athletic team built to run playing a walk-up style (no fast break points vs. Nebraska). Inability to cover the 3-pointer. Inability to execute in the half court. Complete meltdowns against the zone. Massive swings between home and away. I'm sorry but that's on Tubby Smith. I really think the game may have actually passed him by at this point. He seems unable to either get through to his team, teach his team, adapt to the team he actually has, or some combination. I doubt the meltdowns against zone defense come about because Tubby doesn't attempt to teach the players how to deal with it, but I also doubt that the team can't grasp the concepts because by all accounts at a minimum both Hollinses are heady, cerebral players. Something is lost in the translation and that falls on the coach.
I've been on the fence, mostly because I just wasn't sure what kind of coach the team could get to come in here and how long the rebuilding process would be as well as dismissing Tubby pretty much eliminates any chance you have at getting Vaughn, Jones, or Travis (in my opinion) so I just wasn't sure, but after watching that effort against Purdue I'm officially saying I would prefer they part ways. Tubby helped bring the program back to respectability, but finishing in 9th place in your 6th year with your best team and only having two NCAA appearances and zero wins says "thanks, but we're all done here" to me. I'm not screaming from the rooftops that he needs to go - at least not yet - but I would prefer that they make a move. If the Gophers end up sticking with him for one more year, and one last chance, in order to try to get one of the Big 3 for 2014 I'll be ok with that, but I'm no longer under any illusions as to what this program can be under Tubby Smith.
The real question is who would you hire? The first name on most people's list is Shaka Smart, what with all the VCU connections we have in the athletic department now and obviously that's a dream hire, but would he really leave such a program on the rise that just moved to a better conference? Brad Stevens is another one you'll hear a lot, but I can't imagine why he'd leave Butler considering they're looking like they'll be part of the new Big East next season. The third name that seems to always come up is Flip Saunders, and as intriguing as that is I don't know that I'm in favor of it. I realize that sort of thing is working fine so far at Iowa State with Hoiberg, but I think I'd rather have someone with some college coaching/recruiting experience. I'm not against it, per se, but I'm not as for it as many people seem to be.
For me, it comes down to the following:
1. Gregg Marshall. This is the guy I want. He's built both Winthrop and Wichita State into power programs in their conference (and Winthrop was his first head coaching job which is extra impressive). He's 50, which is a little older than I'd like but he's only been a head coach for 15 years so the fire in the belly should still be there, and a Big 10 school is a definite step up from Wichita.
2. Larry Eustachy. The only retread type I will accept. After the unceremonious divorce from Iowa State he's resurrected both Southern Miss and Colorado State and turned them into NCAA Tournament programs. Has been a winner everywhere he's been, and he hasn't exactly been at power house schools.
3. Jeff Capel/Anthony Grant. Credit to From the Barn for pointing this out, but both Capel and Grant are former VCU coaches who parlayed their success there into head gigs with bigger outfits, to varying success. Capel struggled at Oklahoma and is back to being an assistant at Duke. Grant is at Alabama and is hoping to lead the Crimson Tide to their second straight NCAA Tournament berth, although it's not looking likely. Both would have to look at the Gopher job as a promotion and step up in prestige, and both are young which is what I'd prefer. I'd choose Capel over Grant, but it's close.
4. Chris Mack. Currently at Xavier, which was his first head job, he's just 43 and has had a lot of success. The problem with him is he's from Cincinnati, played college ball at Xavier, and has had two different stints as an assistant at Xavier, so he might already be at his dream job.
5. Someone else. How's that for specific? What I mean is there are a ton of qualified coaches out there, and it's not my job to find them all. I can get on board with anything from somebody who has built a couple of programs already all the way down to a hot shot assistant with zero head coaching experience, as long as someone can explain it to me and sell it. Luckily, the Gophers might have the right person and the right connections in their corner to do this the right way. The one thing I know I don't want is some retread (with one exception) which is basically what they tried with Tubby and it didn't work (well, it kind of worked I guess). Think young.
Of course this is all just idle speculation because Tubby might not be going anywhere. I highly doubt they'd can him if the team manages to win an NCAA Tournament game. Even if they lose their first round Big 10 game and then get killed as a 12 seed in the NCAA Tournament I'd still say it's 50/50 whether they hold on to him for another year or not, likely to hope they snag one of the Big 3 Minnesota recruits and/or reduce the buyout. Norwood Teague and Mike Ellis know coaches - they were there when both Anthony Grant and Shaka Smart were hired. If it's time for Tubby to go, I trust they'll know it, and when it comes to replacing him, I trust them there as well.
The one thing that has kept me somewhat engaged as this season spirals off into oblivion is the possibility that this isn't so much a home thing as it's an away thing. What I mean is, maybe the Gophers aren't materially changed by being at Williams, but that they can't handle an opposing team's gym and crowd and a neutral court will work for them. Remember they played pretty well at the Battle 4 Atlantis, taking down both Memphis and Stanford and not getting completely killed from the tip by Duke. That's my big hope right now, an d it's a big reason why I'd rather see them get an 11 seed than a 7 (anything higher than a 7 is out the window at this point) because then they avoid a 1 or 2 seed and the "protection" situation of playing Kansas in Kansas City or something and having it not be technically a home game since KU is in Lawrence but 90% of the crowd is Jayhawk fans.
Where do they go from here? No clue, man. It's obvious that the same problems keep resurfacing year after year, and that has to be on the coach. An athletic team built to run playing a walk-up style (no fast break points vs. Nebraska). Inability to cover the 3-pointer. Inability to execute in the half court. Complete meltdowns against the zone. Massive swings between home and away. I'm sorry but that's on Tubby Smith. I really think the game may have actually passed him by at this point. He seems unable to either get through to his team, teach his team, adapt to the team he actually has, or some combination. I doubt the meltdowns against zone defense come about because Tubby doesn't attempt to teach the players how to deal with it, but I also doubt that the team can't grasp the concepts because by all accounts at a minimum both Hollinses are heady, cerebral players. Something is lost in the translation and that falls on the coach.
I've been on the fence, mostly because I just wasn't sure what kind of coach the team could get to come in here and how long the rebuilding process would be as well as dismissing Tubby pretty much eliminates any chance you have at getting Vaughn, Jones, or Travis (in my opinion) so I just wasn't sure, but after watching that effort against Purdue I'm officially saying I would prefer they part ways. Tubby helped bring the program back to respectability, but finishing in 9th place in your 6th year with your best team and only having two NCAA appearances and zero wins says "thanks, but we're all done here" to me. I'm not screaming from the rooftops that he needs to go - at least not yet - but I would prefer that they make a move. If the Gophers end up sticking with him for one more year, and one last chance, in order to try to get one of the Big 3 for 2014 I'll be ok with that, but I'm no longer under any illusions as to what this program can be under Tubby Smith.
The real question is who would you hire? The first name on most people's list is Shaka Smart, what with all the VCU connections we have in the athletic department now and obviously that's a dream hire, but would he really leave such a program on the rise that just moved to a better conference? Brad Stevens is another one you'll hear a lot, but I can't imagine why he'd leave Butler considering they're looking like they'll be part of the new Big East next season. The third name that seems to always come up is Flip Saunders, and as intriguing as that is I don't know that I'm in favor of it. I realize that sort of thing is working fine so far at Iowa State with Hoiberg, but I think I'd rather have someone with some college coaching/recruiting experience. I'm not against it, per se, but I'm not as for it as many people seem to be.
For me, it comes down to the following:
1. Gregg Marshall. This is the guy I want. He's built both Winthrop and Wichita State into power programs in their conference (and Winthrop was his first head coaching job which is extra impressive). He's 50, which is a little older than I'd like but he's only been a head coach for 15 years so the fire in the belly should still be there, and a Big 10 school is a definite step up from Wichita.
2. Larry Eustachy. The only retread type I will accept. After the unceremonious divorce from Iowa State he's resurrected both Southern Miss and Colorado State and turned them into NCAA Tournament programs. Has been a winner everywhere he's been, and he hasn't exactly been at power house schools.
3. Jeff Capel/Anthony Grant. Credit to From the Barn for pointing this out, but both Capel and Grant are former VCU coaches who parlayed their success there into head gigs with bigger outfits, to varying success. Capel struggled at Oklahoma and is back to being an assistant at Duke. Grant is at Alabama and is hoping to lead the Crimson Tide to their second straight NCAA Tournament berth, although it's not looking likely. Both would have to look at the Gopher job as a promotion and step up in prestige, and both are young which is what I'd prefer. I'd choose Capel over Grant, but it's close.
4. Chris Mack. Currently at Xavier, which was his first head job, he's just 43 and has had a lot of success. The problem with him is he's from Cincinnati, played college ball at Xavier, and has had two different stints as an assistant at Xavier, so he might already be at his dream job.
5. Someone else. How's that for specific? What I mean is there are a ton of qualified coaches out there, and it's not my job to find them all. I can get on board with anything from somebody who has built a couple of programs already all the way down to a hot shot assistant with zero head coaching experience, as long as someone can explain it to me and sell it. Luckily, the Gophers might have the right person and the right connections in their corner to do this the right way. The one thing I know I don't want is some retread (with one exception) which is basically what they tried with Tubby and it didn't work (well, it kind of worked I guess). Think young.
Of course this is all just idle speculation because Tubby might not be going anywhere. I highly doubt they'd can him if the team manages to win an NCAA Tournament game. Even if they lose their first round Big 10 game and then get killed as a 12 seed in the NCAA Tournament I'd still say it's 50/50 whether they hold on to him for another year or not, likely to hope they snag one of the Big 3 Minnesota recruits and/or reduce the buyout. Norwood Teague and Mike Ellis know coaches - they were there when both Anthony Grant and Shaka Smart were hired. If it's time for Tubby to go, I trust they'll know it, and when it comes to replacing him, I trust them there as well.
Sunday, February 24, 2013
Where do the Gophers stand?
As of Sunday morning, the Gophers RPI is a robust 15 with the number 1 strength of schedule. I know what you're thinking, "Number 1 SoS? Get out of here", but it's the truth. Whether by design, luck, or something in between the Gophers managed to face very few true cupcakes this year. Going by RPI, only American (#286) and North Florida (#224) rank outside the top 200, which is cupcake territory. Every other opponent was at least decent, and having faced Duke (#1), Indiana (#6), Michigan State x 2 (#7), Michigan (#9), Memphis (#18), Ohio State (#23), Wisconsin x 2 (#24), Illinois x 2 (#33), Stanford (#67), Florida State (#68), Richmond (#80), South Dakota State (#84), North Dakota State (#86), Iowa x 2 (#90), Nebraska (#97), and USC (#100) you can see how they have the #1 SoS - I mean that is a pretty brutal slate. That's 20 games against the RPI top 100, and for comparison sake the #2 (Duke) and #3 (Miami) team's in SoS have played 18 and 16 games against that kind of competition.
Make no mistake, the Gophers computer numbers are extraordinarily strong. The only team to ever miss the tournament with anything resembling the Gophers' RPI was Missouri State in 2006 with an RPI of 21, but that was the year the Missouri Valley had 4 other teams get in and I'm guessing the committee wasn't about to put five teams in from a mid-major. Plus with 6 conference losses, no impressive out of conference wins, and a first round loss in the MVC Tournament they weren't really that strong of a team anyway - the situation is in no way comparable to the Gophers.
Breaking down the Gophers' results further, they've gone 3-6 against the RPI Top 25, 4-7 against the Top 50, and 12-8 against the top 100 - these are all really, really strong results. Add in road/neutral wins against Memphis, Illinois, Stanford, and FSU (all top 100 teams) and everything about their resume on paper says this is absolutely a tournament team. On paper.
As you know since you are reading this and I assume you're a Gopher fan, the Gophers haven't done anything worth noting in over a month outside of an extremely lucky OT win versus Wisconsin. They're currently in a 3-8 skid, and the last two losses have been really, really ugly - that matters. Right now the Gophers are on the bubble, but they're on the right side of the bubble. Joe Lunardi at ESPN has them as a 10 seed right now, but I'm guessing even a guy who somehow makes a living projecting the tournament field has no idea what to do with such a bizarre profile where the on court results and computer numbers don't match up.
I think for the Gophers to make it in the tournament it's pretty simple - they just need to finish strong. Whether it's beating Indiana, as unlikely as that feels right now, or by winning their final three games (Penn State, @Nebraska, @Purdue), a strong finish likely puts them in regardless of the results in the B10 Tournament. But fail to beat Indiana and drop one of those three games (I'm not even going to speculate on what would happen if they lost more than one, because that's pretty much season's over)? Suddenly the B10 Tournament becomes very important.
Let's assume they end up finishing 7th. The first round match-up would be against probably either Nebraska or Northwestern (Nebraska would be better since they're a top 100 RPI team right now). After that if they won the Gophers would play somebody like Michigan State who would probably just crush them. So, basically, the Gophers really need to take care of business to finish up the season.
There are plenty of other teams out there who are on the bubble and in similar shape to the Gophers, but it's not really worth worrying about them just yet because Minnesota's path is clear - finish strong. Beat Indiana and they're probably in even if they lose on of the last three. Lose to Indiana but finish out with three wins and they're in. Get to 9-9 in conference play one way or another and not only will we not have to sweat selection sunday, but the B10 Tournament becomes pretty meaningless as well. At 8-10 though? Well, then things get awfully tight.
I'd prefer to tackle the "fire Tubby or not" question in the offseason. For now, I'd just like to see the Gophers back in the tournament. Maybe even get a win. A boy can dream, can't he?
Make no mistake, the Gophers computer numbers are extraordinarily strong. The only team to ever miss the tournament with anything resembling the Gophers' RPI was Missouri State in 2006 with an RPI of 21, but that was the year the Missouri Valley had 4 other teams get in and I'm guessing the committee wasn't about to put five teams in from a mid-major. Plus with 6 conference losses, no impressive out of conference wins, and a first round loss in the MVC Tournament they weren't really that strong of a team anyway - the situation is in no way comparable to the Gophers.
Breaking down the Gophers' results further, they've gone 3-6 against the RPI Top 25, 4-7 against the Top 50, and 12-8 against the top 100 - these are all really, really strong results. Add in road/neutral wins against Memphis, Illinois, Stanford, and FSU (all top 100 teams) and everything about their resume on paper says this is absolutely a tournament team. On paper.
As you know since you are reading this and I assume you're a Gopher fan, the Gophers haven't done anything worth noting in over a month outside of an extremely lucky OT win versus Wisconsin. They're currently in a 3-8 skid, and the last two losses have been really, really ugly - that matters. Right now the Gophers are on the bubble, but they're on the right side of the bubble. Joe Lunardi at ESPN has them as a 10 seed right now, but I'm guessing even a guy who somehow makes a living projecting the tournament field has no idea what to do with such a bizarre profile where the on court results and computer numbers don't match up.
I think for the Gophers to make it in the tournament it's pretty simple - they just need to finish strong. Whether it's beating Indiana, as unlikely as that feels right now, or by winning their final three games (Penn State, @Nebraska, @Purdue), a strong finish likely puts them in regardless of the results in the B10 Tournament. But fail to beat Indiana and drop one of those three games (I'm not even going to speculate on what would happen if they lost more than one, because that's pretty much season's over)? Suddenly the B10 Tournament becomes very important.
Let's assume they end up finishing 7th. The first round match-up would be against probably either Nebraska or Northwestern (Nebraska would be better since they're a top 100 RPI team right now). After that if they won the Gophers would play somebody like Michigan State who would probably just crush them. So, basically, the Gophers really need to take care of business to finish up the season.
There are plenty of other teams out there who are on the bubble and in similar shape to the Gophers, but it's not really worth worrying about them just yet because Minnesota's path is clear - finish strong. Beat Indiana and they're probably in even if they lose on of the last three. Lose to Indiana but finish out with three wins and they're in. Get to 9-9 in conference play one way or another and not only will we not have to sweat selection sunday, but the B10 Tournament becomes pretty meaningless as well. At 8-10 though? Well, then things get awfully tight.
I'd prefer to tackle the "fire Tubby or not" question in the offseason. For now, I'd just like to see the Gophers back in the tournament. Maybe even get a win. A boy can dream, can't he?
Tuesday, February 12, 2013
Where do we go from here?
I suppose if I'm not completely shutting this blog down (and I don't think I am but I'm not 100% on that) I should write something after the Gophers lost yet again, but I'm struggling to come up with anything to write. Partially it's because I intentionally avoided paying too much attention to the game, listening to the first half in the car on the radio and half watching the second one at a restaurant with my entire loud distracting family, and partially because I mean what can you even say? I just don't know where to go from here.
I realize as a lifelong Gopher fan that expected a perennial power is pretty silly, but I had always figured the Gophers for the Clem model. Every 3-4 years a good team with the capability to make the Sweet 16, and if everything breaks right even a little further. With Monson on board the failings of the program weren't that surprising given his main goal was to "clean up the program" (whatever that means) but when he finally left and the surprising hire of Tubby Smith was announced I assumed at worst the Gophers would go back to the Clem model of success but, well, here we are.
This was supposed to be the big break-out year. The talent was there at at least four positions, five depending on your opinion of Joe Coleman. Comparisons were tossed out to the 1997 Final Four team, and I was as guilty as anyone. The Gophers basically started the year as a lock for the NCAA Tournament. Now, however, they're under .500 in the Big 10. Although they don't have a disastrous loss (Northwestern on the road is probably the worst) they now have far too many, and needed a miracle to beat a so-so Iowa team at home. The wins over FSU and Stanford have not really held up, and luckily Memphis has come around a bit so the Gophers still hold at least one good non-conference win, but they're currently on a 2-6 slide and haven't beaten anybody of substance in over a month.
It's pretty clear to me that Tubby Smith wasn't the answer. For whatever reason, whether you think he's mailing it in because he's old and doesn't have that fire in the belly anymore, is just trying to keep the seat warm for Saul, or just has never been that great a coach I fear this program has gone as far as it can go with him. The players are in place, and I'm not one to criticize Tubby's recruiting, but his in-game coaching has been terrible since he got here and seems to have hit another low this year. Between his lack of preparation (I've never seen so many guys look confused), his inability to adapt in game, his puzzling substitution patterns, and lack of any offensive coaching chops I just don't know what he's doing. Now their early season strength - defense - has seemingly abandoned them as well. About the only thing that's gone well all season is offensive rebounding, and that's basically all about player ability and motivation.
I couldn't begin to tell you the answer. Gregg Marshall, Shaka Smart, Larry Eustachy? They have to want to come here first. I'd still go after Marshall if I'm in charge, but I really don't know if it matters. Tubby was supposed to matter, and he hasn't. All I really know is the Gophers continue to underachieve while teams like Wisconsin continue to overachieve - at some point that's on the coach. I think that point has arrived.
I've tried to step back and see if I'm being a crazy, pessimistic, sky is falling fan. I mean, given their RPI and SoS and a relatively easy schedule they're still likely to make the NCAA Tournament and that's good, right? I guess it just doesn't feel good given that they were in the "lock" category and have since fallen into "work left to do" or "should be in." The season has been a failure to this point,and it's not the results it's how the results come about. I'm not down on the team because they barely beat Iowa or lost at home to Illinois - I'm down on the team because the coaching has failed. The team is confused, I am confused, and it appears the coaching staff is confused. I'm not saying I could do it better than Tubby, but I am saying there are plenty of people out there who could.
But hey, pitchers and catchers reported today. At least I know this Twins' season won't break my heart.
I realize as a lifelong Gopher fan that expected a perennial power is pretty silly, but I had always figured the Gophers for the Clem model. Every 3-4 years a good team with the capability to make the Sweet 16, and if everything breaks right even a little further. With Monson on board the failings of the program weren't that surprising given his main goal was to "clean up the program" (whatever that means) but when he finally left and the surprising hire of Tubby Smith was announced I assumed at worst the Gophers would go back to the Clem model of success but, well, here we are.
This was supposed to be the big break-out year. The talent was there at at least four positions, five depending on your opinion of Joe Coleman. Comparisons were tossed out to the 1997 Final Four team, and I was as guilty as anyone. The Gophers basically started the year as a lock for the NCAA Tournament. Now, however, they're under .500 in the Big 10. Although they don't have a disastrous loss (Northwestern on the road is probably the worst) they now have far too many, and needed a miracle to beat a so-so Iowa team at home. The wins over FSU and Stanford have not really held up, and luckily Memphis has come around a bit so the Gophers still hold at least one good non-conference win, but they're currently on a 2-6 slide and haven't beaten anybody of substance in over a month.
It's pretty clear to me that Tubby Smith wasn't the answer. For whatever reason, whether you think he's mailing it in because he's old and doesn't have that fire in the belly anymore, is just trying to keep the seat warm for Saul, or just has never been that great a coach I fear this program has gone as far as it can go with him. The players are in place, and I'm not one to criticize Tubby's recruiting, but his in-game coaching has been terrible since he got here and seems to have hit another low this year. Between his lack of preparation (I've never seen so many guys look confused), his inability to adapt in game, his puzzling substitution patterns, and lack of any offensive coaching chops I just don't know what he's doing. Now their early season strength - defense - has seemingly abandoned them as well. About the only thing that's gone well all season is offensive rebounding, and that's basically all about player ability and motivation.
I couldn't begin to tell you the answer. Gregg Marshall, Shaka Smart, Larry Eustachy? They have to want to come here first. I'd still go after Marshall if I'm in charge, but I really don't know if it matters. Tubby was supposed to matter, and he hasn't. All I really know is the Gophers continue to underachieve while teams like Wisconsin continue to overachieve - at some point that's on the coach. I think that point has arrived.
I've tried to step back and see if I'm being a crazy, pessimistic, sky is falling fan. I mean, given their RPI and SoS and a relatively easy schedule they're still likely to make the NCAA Tournament and that's good, right? I guess it just doesn't feel good given that they were in the "lock" category and have since fallen into "work left to do" or "should be in." The season has been a failure to this point,and it's not the results it's how the results come about. I'm not down on the team because they barely beat Iowa or lost at home to Illinois - I'm down on the team because the coaching has failed. The team is confused, I am confused, and it appears the coaching staff is confused. I'm not saying I could do it better than Tubby, but I am saying there are plenty of people out there who could.
But hey, pitchers and catchers reported today. At least I know this Twins' season won't break my heart.
Thursday, February 7, 2013
Gophers lose to Spartans. Again.
There is no shame in losing in East Lansing, god knows Tubby and the Gophers are used to it. The Spartans are coming together, are a legit top ten team, and have a well known home court advantage - anybody expecting the Gophers to actually win this game is a pretty big optimist. Since Michigan State has been going more twin towers they've become very tough to deal with, and the Gophers three point defense, which was so good earlier in the year, has deteriorated too much to double the ball as much as they did last night, and they were unable to get out to the shooters leading to a good shooting team hitting 9-18 from 3. When a team shoots that well and only turns the ball over 5 times, you've got a tough game in front of you. A few other quick points.
1. Trevor Mbakwe simply needs to get more than 5 shots (especially when two of those five came off him getting offensive putbacks). Nix is a big dude, but he can't handle Mbakwe's combination of speed, quickness, and strength. In the beginning of both halves the Gophers seemed to be making a concerted effort to get him the ball, even using cross screens with him at the high post coming through the lane and posting up on the block, where Nix would have to go under the screen and was unable to beat Mbakwe to the position. It worked and it got him the ball, and he was able to get good looks with Michigan State not doubling. There were a few times he was too tentative, almost waiting for the double when he should have just gone to work, but that wasn't reason enough to go away from it. Didn't make much sense.
2. Austin Hollins simply cannot shoot away from Williams Arena. I don't think anyone has ever considered him a great shooter, but watching all the games at home he kind of gives the impression that he's shooting the ball really well this year, but that's only the case in Minneapolis. I looked at all the games vs. non-cupcakes, and at home he's shooting 49% from the floor at 45% from 3 at home - very good numbers. But away from the Barn he's hitting just 28% overall and 26% from three - absolutely horrible. On a team with no great shooters (depending on how you want to label Andre Hollins) it would be great if he could figure out how to hit a shot on the road. With the post scoring they can get from Mbakwe and Rodney Williams and the ability Dre Hollins and Joe Coleman have to get into the lane it creates open perimeter shots, as we've seen. He's open just as often, they just go down at Williams and clang off elsewhere. I don't know if you guys know this, but the NCAA Tournament games are NOT played at Williams Arena. NIT, yes, but I prefer to continue to assume that's not an option.
3. Prior to this game, Tubby mentioned he needs to play his bench more because the starters are logging too many minutes. Although I'm not entirely certain I agree, he's the coach and that's his thought process, so whatever, but he's really got to stop going with five subs all at once. Some teams can probably pull that off in spurts, but for whatever reason the Gopher second five has zero ability to score or even get shots. Elliason can rebound, Welch can score (a little), and Maverick can penetrate (a little), but as an overall group together there's nobody who can lead the offense. Inevitably they end up with a bad shot as the shot clock winds down. In games like this you just can't go for a 3-5 minute stretch with little to no hope of scoring. You just can't. It's not that hard to come up with a substitution pattern that makes sure you have at least two starters in at any time. Or, apparently, it is.
4. Really, there's no reason to get too concerned about losing this game - it was inevitable. I see the Gophers finishing out at 5-3 (with a 3 game losing streak in there just to get everybody all riled up again), which puts them at 10-6 in the best conference with good computer numbers and a pretty good resume. They'll probably end up with five or six seed and then we'll see what happens from there. Which, to be honest, is a pretty far cry from where I thought they'd be.
So it goes.
1. Trevor Mbakwe simply needs to get more than 5 shots (especially when two of those five came off him getting offensive putbacks). Nix is a big dude, but he can't handle Mbakwe's combination of speed, quickness, and strength. In the beginning of both halves the Gophers seemed to be making a concerted effort to get him the ball, even using cross screens with him at the high post coming through the lane and posting up on the block, where Nix would have to go under the screen and was unable to beat Mbakwe to the position. It worked and it got him the ball, and he was able to get good looks with Michigan State not doubling. There were a few times he was too tentative, almost waiting for the double when he should have just gone to work, but that wasn't reason enough to go away from it. Didn't make much sense.
2. Austin Hollins simply cannot shoot away from Williams Arena. I don't think anyone has ever considered him a great shooter, but watching all the games at home he kind of gives the impression that he's shooting the ball really well this year, but that's only the case in Minneapolis. I looked at all the games vs. non-cupcakes, and at home he's shooting 49% from the floor at 45% from 3 at home - very good numbers. But away from the Barn he's hitting just 28% overall and 26% from three - absolutely horrible. On a team with no great shooters (depending on how you want to label Andre Hollins) it would be great if he could figure out how to hit a shot on the road. With the post scoring they can get from Mbakwe and Rodney Williams and the ability Dre Hollins and Joe Coleman have to get into the lane it creates open perimeter shots, as we've seen. He's open just as often, they just go down at Williams and clang off elsewhere. I don't know if you guys know this, but the NCAA Tournament games are NOT played at Williams Arena. NIT, yes, but I prefer to continue to assume that's not an option.
3. Prior to this game, Tubby mentioned he needs to play his bench more because the starters are logging too many minutes. Although I'm not entirely certain I agree, he's the coach and that's his thought process, so whatever, but he's really got to stop going with five subs all at once. Some teams can probably pull that off in spurts, but for whatever reason the Gopher second five has zero ability to score or even get shots. Elliason can rebound, Welch can score (a little), and Maverick can penetrate (a little), but as an overall group together there's nobody who can lead the offense. Inevitably they end up with a bad shot as the shot clock winds down. In games like this you just can't go for a 3-5 minute stretch with little to no hope of scoring. You just can't. It's not that hard to come up with a substitution pattern that makes sure you have at least two starters in at any time. Or, apparently, it is.
4. Really, there's no reason to get too concerned about losing this game - it was inevitable. I see the Gophers finishing out at 5-3 (with a 3 game losing streak in there just to get everybody all riled up again), which puts them at 10-6 in the best conference with good computer numbers and a pretty good resume. They'll probably end up with five or six seed and then we'll see what happens from there. Which, to be honest, is a pretty far cry from where I thought they'd be.
So it goes.
Monday, February 4, 2013
What is up with Tubby Smith, man?
Over the last couple of years there seems to be a big undercurrent of talk about firing Tubby Smith. Generally I just dismissed this as mostly lunatic ramblings, given that he had taken over a pretty moribund program and restored it to respectability with back-to-back NCAA Tournament appearances. Sure, there were plenty of frustrations - the Royce White situation, the myriad of transfers, some in-game things, players not developing, etc. - but you get those from time to time with pretty much any coach. The team was relevant again and playing better basketball with better players, and frankly after the end of the Monson era pretty much anything would have felt pretty good. But lately, man. Lately I just don't know. And this goes beyond back-to-back missed NCAA Tournaments, it's more of, I don't know, a little bit of everything. I realize that to an outsider this might seem a little unnecessary given that the Gophers are ranked for the first time in what I assume is forever and seem like a lock to make the tournament this year, but if you're reading this you're probably not an outsider, and I feel like there's a very good chance you're nodding your head right now and not because you're listening to Busta Rhymes.
A college basketball head coach has 3 main jobs. Ok really just one - to win - but it's broken into three parts: recruiting, coaching to improve the players you already have, and game planning (both pre-game and in-game). How would you rate Tubby on these right now? I'm most interesting in talking game planning, but I'm going to hit the other two as well.
First, recruiting. You remember his first two classes - blue chippers, name players, going after guys with offers from Kentucky (Sampson), Kansas (Joseph), Florida (Iverson), and Michigan State (White), top 100 guys, top 50 guys, and getting them. The last few classes, however, he's seemed to be settling more. Although both Hollinseses and Coleman look like nice finds and are certainly playing well, none of them were all that highly sought after and the best offer any of them had was probably Memphis's to Austin, although that could be mitigated a bit since he's from Tennessee. This year's class and next year's are made up of four players, none of which make the national rankings list, and for all four you could make an argument for the Gophers being the best program offering them. There are few other offers between them that could make that argument as well, but the Gophers no longer seem to be getting, or even offering, the players that are nationally well thought of.
Now, I will say this. Seeing how the Hollins twins and Coleman have been working out keeps me in Tubby's corner here. It could be that Tubby needed to go after bigger names and more well known players early in his tenure to establish a recruiting base and bring the team back to relevancy, and now can be more picky and choosy with the "type" of players he wants even if they aren't on the national map. That strategy can work (see: Wisconsin) and this year's team is a good example of it. Add in that the two 2013 recruits already signed (Alvin Ellis and Alex Foster) are guys Tubby's been after for a long time and I'm inclined to give him the benefit of the doubt for now. The real test is in 2014 with three Minnesota kids in Rivals Top 41. Tubby needs to get at least one of them to wear the maroon and gold. I would be ecstatic with two, but there has got to be at least one. The jury is still out on him here.
As far as coaching players up, that's another thing that has seemed to improve and helps strengthen any pro-Tubby argument that he needed the right kind of players. Sampson was obviously a bust and I don't think Devoe Joseph was markedly better the day he bolted for Oregon than when he arrived on campus. Colton Iverson and Justin Cobbs have both absolutely thrived after leaving Minnesota, and all four of those players' successes or lack there of are on Tubby's inability to get them to improve. Once again, the Hollinses and Coleman are his saving grace, because Austin has gotten leaps and bounds better and both Andre and Coleman have improved (although Coleman's defense makes baby jesus cry). Rodney Williams has regressed a bit this year, but there's no doubt that his improvement from sophomore to junior was a large one. Whether you want to give the majority of the credit for that simply to Mbakwe being out for the year is up to you, but Tubby still had to coach him, put him in the right position, and get him to change his game. The real test on this one will be next year. With Mbakwe and Williams gone the front court is going to be Mo Walker and Elliott Elliason, and unless he makes some real progress with those two it could be pretty ugly. Once again, the jury is out but I'm inclined to rule in Tubby's favor and call it "getting the right kind of players for Tubby."
Now, I wrote those first two paragraphs (3, actually) to illustrate that I'm in no way a rabid Tubby basher. I'm in his corner in a lot of ways, and other than a tweet or a throwaway comment in a post I've rarely said anything negative about him. That being said, what in the holy hell does this guy do at practice? We saw the problem again against Iowa. Any time the Hawkeyes would do their 3/4 court trap the Gopher guards would completely panic, even to the point where on one possession Rodney Williams still had the ball at the 3-point line in the back court with 7 seconds gone from the shot clock before the crowd helped him realize what was going on and he tried to fly over the timeline and do something with the ball and, naturally, oops turnover. Things were just as bad when Iowa played zone in the half court, with the guards appearing to play a four corners stall ball style despite the fact that they were losing with under 3 minutes to play.
I mean, it's not like Iowa doesn't ever play zone and they pretty much break out the trap every game, so there's no way these guys should be so perplexed as to what to do, especially since by all accounts and all visual evidence both Hollins kids are pretty cerebral players. If this was an isolated incident it would be one thing, but look at how the Gophers weren't only unable to score against Northwestern's 1-3-1 but immediately turned into a bunch of JV players, and this is the same zone Northwestern uses every single game. They couldn't find a way to score or get good shots against Wisconsin when the Badgers play the same defensive scheme every single year, and they went through about a twelve minute period against Michigan State where they couldn't inbound the ball under their own basket. There's just too much here, and this is just this season when we could find a whole bunch more examples if we looked back a few seasons.
Look I'm not some sort of basketball genius (actually I am, but for the sake of this post let's pretend I'm not) but while scoring and getting good shots against a good team playing a zone can be difficult (thus Syracuse's success), the basics of beating a zone don't change no matter the level of play and anyone should be able to grasp them. It's pretty simple, start your offense where the defense isn't. If they're playing 1-3-1, you should arrange your players in a 2-1-2. If they're in a 2-3, go with a 3-2 (with one guy at the high post, one at the low). You put your players in the natural gaps in the zone and then use quick passes and ball movement (and ball fakes where appropriate) to keep the defense moving and shifting which will inevitably create gaps that can be exploited with cuts, dribble penetration, and passes. Honestly a good offense against a decent zone should be able to create shots in most cases without even running a single pattern or setting a single pick or screen. It's quite simple.
So why, WHY, can't Tubby's teams seem to grasp this? The key to beating a zone (after you actually, you know, line up properly) is the guy in the middle - whoever is at the free throw line/high post. Get that guy the ball and the zone needs to dramatically shift to cover him, leaving open shooters and cutters. That is the most important player in beating a zone, and both Mbakwe and Williams are athletic enough and good enough passers to handle it, and if the defense sags or doesn't react quickly enough I trust them both to either drive or hit the 15-foot jumper as the situation dictates. Honestly the way the Gophers are constructed they should absolutely destroy zone defenses beyond more than getting a ton of offensive rebounds (which, admittedly, the do very well). So why don't they? BECAUSE THERE IS NEVER ANYBODY AT THE GOD DAMN HIGH POST. The key guy to beating a zone (or a press but just shift everyone into the backcourt and make the free throw line the half court line) and somehow nobody is ever there?
Seriously, watch the Gophers the next time somebody drops into a zone against them (and I'm willing to bet Izzo will give it a shot even though they're mostly a man team) and you'll see how few possessions actually have somebody in that space and, worse, how few actually result in touches for whoever it is. If you're moving the ball and getting open shots and they just aren't falling that's one thing, but not even running a proper offense against the defense being played against you? There's no way to place the blame for that on anyone but the coach, and I'm talking 97% of the blame, not just 51%. Inexcusable. Tubby must spend 90% of practice on defense, and at least that part works, but not being prepared and not being able to adjust mid-game is just baffling. Yeah, he drew up a couple of good plays to get Coleman a lay-up late and the big Hollins three-pointer against Iowa, but let's not do whatever the opposite of throw the baby out with the bathwater here - Tubby has been a terrible game coach since he got here.
I'm still not in the "fire tubby" camp simply because I'm not sure where to go from here. Unless you're bringing in an elite level of talent like Kentucky and Calipari (who makes Tubby look like Bill Self) you can't be a great team without someone on the sidelines who can put the players in the best position to win and then adjust if they aren't there or something changes. Obviously neither of those things are happening, but I'm not sure how to change that either - it's not like Tim Miles (a good game coach) has had any success at Nebraska in year one. There's no doubt Tubby can coach and teach defense (I am still impressed by their rotations on defense in most games) and defense will at least keep them competitive so that's a positive. Plus I remember clambering for a firing of Glen Mason for failing to rise above mediocrity and look how that turned out. So I'm not calling for a firing of Tubby, despite the mediocre results in his five years or whatever it is, but I do think it's time to at least start considering some options.
Shaka Smart is the best hire by most accounts and given his prior relationship with Norwood Teague is probably at least somewhat realistic as well, and I would have liked Miles but it's hard to believe he's going to jump from Nebraska so quickly. One guy I'd like the Gophers to take a long and hard look at hiring is Gregg Marshall. He's had two jobs, Winthrop and Wichita, and has had nothing but success with a 320-146 career record and seven conference titles in 14 years. He's only 50, too, so he won't be nodding off on the sidelines or just trying to go through the motions to get another paycheck. He's a good game coach, a solid recruiter, and brings in at least some name recognition. I don't think it's time for Tubby to go, but a first round exit, failure to bring in any of the three Minnesota kids, and another disappointing season? Yeah, then it's time. Hopefully we don't get to that point, but I'm really starting to think Tubby's lack of offensive acumen - and apparently nobody else on staff who can take that responsibility from him - is going to hold the Gophers back, and if it's hurting the most talented Gopher team since 1997, what's it going to do if the talent falls off?
Plus anything to guarantee Saul doesn't coach here is a net positive.
If you made it through this entire thing you deserve a reward, so here you go. You're welcome.
A college basketball head coach has 3 main jobs. Ok really just one - to win - but it's broken into three parts: recruiting, coaching to improve the players you already have, and game planning (both pre-game and in-game). How would you rate Tubby on these right now? I'm most interesting in talking game planning, but I'm going to hit the other two as well.
First, recruiting. You remember his first two classes - blue chippers, name players, going after guys with offers from Kentucky (Sampson), Kansas (Joseph), Florida (Iverson), and Michigan State (White), top 100 guys, top 50 guys, and getting them. The last few classes, however, he's seemed to be settling more. Although both Hollinseses and Coleman look like nice finds and are certainly playing well, none of them were all that highly sought after and the best offer any of them had was probably Memphis's to Austin, although that could be mitigated a bit since he's from Tennessee. This year's class and next year's are made up of four players, none of which make the national rankings list, and for all four you could make an argument for the Gophers being the best program offering them. There are few other offers between them that could make that argument as well, but the Gophers no longer seem to be getting, or even offering, the players that are nationally well thought of.
Now, I will say this. Seeing how the Hollins twins and Coleman have been working out keeps me in Tubby's corner here. It could be that Tubby needed to go after bigger names and more well known players early in his tenure to establish a recruiting base and bring the team back to relevancy, and now can be more picky and choosy with the "type" of players he wants even if they aren't on the national map. That strategy can work (see: Wisconsin) and this year's team is a good example of it. Add in that the two 2013 recruits already signed (Alvin Ellis and Alex Foster) are guys Tubby's been after for a long time and I'm inclined to give him the benefit of the doubt for now. The real test is in 2014 with three Minnesota kids in Rivals Top 41. Tubby needs to get at least one of them to wear the maroon and gold. I would be ecstatic with two, but there has got to be at least one. The jury is still out on him here.
As far as coaching players up, that's another thing that has seemed to improve and helps strengthen any pro-Tubby argument that he needed the right kind of players. Sampson was obviously a bust and I don't think Devoe Joseph was markedly better the day he bolted for Oregon than when he arrived on campus. Colton Iverson and Justin Cobbs have both absolutely thrived after leaving Minnesota, and all four of those players' successes or lack there of are on Tubby's inability to get them to improve. Once again, the Hollinses and Coleman are his saving grace, because Austin has gotten leaps and bounds better and both Andre and Coleman have improved (although Coleman's defense makes baby jesus cry). Rodney Williams has regressed a bit this year, but there's no doubt that his improvement from sophomore to junior was a large one. Whether you want to give the majority of the credit for that simply to Mbakwe being out for the year is up to you, but Tubby still had to coach him, put him in the right position, and get him to change his game. The real test on this one will be next year. With Mbakwe and Williams gone the front court is going to be Mo Walker and Elliott Elliason, and unless he makes some real progress with those two it could be pretty ugly. Once again, the jury is out but I'm inclined to rule in Tubby's favor and call it "getting the right kind of players for Tubby."
Now, I wrote those first two paragraphs (3, actually) to illustrate that I'm in no way a rabid Tubby basher. I'm in his corner in a lot of ways, and other than a tweet or a throwaway comment in a post I've rarely said anything negative about him. That being said, what in the holy hell does this guy do at practice? We saw the problem again against Iowa. Any time the Hawkeyes would do their 3/4 court trap the Gopher guards would completely panic, even to the point where on one possession Rodney Williams still had the ball at the 3-point line in the back court with 7 seconds gone from the shot clock before the crowd helped him realize what was going on and he tried to fly over the timeline and do something with the ball and, naturally, oops turnover. Things were just as bad when Iowa played zone in the half court, with the guards appearing to play a four corners stall ball style despite the fact that they were losing with under 3 minutes to play.
I mean, it's not like Iowa doesn't ever play zone and they pretty much break out the trap every game, so there's no way these guys should be so perplexed as to what to do, especially since by all accounts and all visual evidence both Hollins kids are pretty cerebral players. If this was an isolated incident it would be one thing, but look at how the Gophers weren't only unable to score against Northwestern's 1-3-1 but immediately turned into a bunch of JV players, and this is the same zone Northwestern uses every single game. They couldn't find a way to score or get good shots against Wisconsin when the Badgers play the same defensive scheme every single year, and they went through about a twelve minute period against Michigan State where they couldn't inbound the ball under their own basket. There's just too much here, and this is just this season when we could find a whole bunch more examples if we looked back a few seasons.
Look I'm not some sort of basketball genius (actually I am, but for the sake of this post let's pretend I'm not) but while scoring and getting good shots against a good team playing a zone can be difficult (thus Syracuse's success), the basics of beating a zone don't change no matter the level of play and anyone should be able to grasp them. It's pretty simple, start your offense where the defense isn't. If they're playing 1-3-1, you should arrange your players in a 2-1-2. If they're in a 2-3, go with a 3-2 (with one guy at the high post, one at the low). You put your players in the natural gaps in the zone and then use quick passes and ball movement (and ball fakes where appropriate) to keep the defense moving and shifting which will inevitably create gaps that can be exploited with cuts, dribble penetration, and passes. Honestly a good offense against a decent zone should be able to create shots in most cases without even running a single pattern or setting a single pick or screen. It's quite simple.
So why, WHY, can't Tubby's teams seem to grasp this? The key to beating a zone (after you actually, you know, line up properly) is the guy in the middle - whoever is at the free throw line/high post. Get that guy the ball and the zone needs to dramatically shift to cover him, leaving open shooters and cutters. That is the most important player in beating a zone, and both Mbakwe and Williams are athletic enough and good enough passers to handle it, and if the defense sags or doesn't react quickly enough I trust them both to either drive or hit the 15-foot jumper as the situation dictates. Honestly the way the Gophers are constructed they should absolutely destroy zone defenses beyond more than getting a ton of offensive rebounds (which, admittedly, the do very well). So why don't they? BECAUSE THERE IS NEVER ANYBODY AT THE GOD DAMN HIGH POST. The key guy to beating a zone (or a press but just shift everyone into the backcourt and make the free throw line the half court line) and somehow nobody is ever there?
Seriously, watch the Gophers the next time somebody drops into a zone against them (and I'm willing to bet Izzo will give it a shot even though they're mostly a man team) and you'll see how few possessions actually have somebody in that space and, worse, how few actually result in touches for whoever it is. If you're moving the ball and getting open shots and they just aren't falling that's one thing, but not even running a proper offense against the defense being played against you? There's no way to place the blame for that on anyone but the coach, and I'm talking 97% of the blame, not just 51%. Inexcusable. Tubby must spend 90% of practice on defense, and at least that part works, but not being prepared and not being able to adjust mid-game is just baffling. Yeah, he drew up a couple of good plays to get Coleman a lay-up late and the big Hollins three-pointer against Iowa, but let's not do whatever the opposite of throw the baby out with the bathwater here - Tubby has been a terrible game coach since he got here.
I'm still not in the "fire tubby" camp simply because I'm not sure where to go from here. Unless you're bringing in an elite level of talent like Kentucky and Calipari (who makes Tubby look like Bill Self) you can't be a great team without someone on the sidelines who can put the players in the best position to win and then adjust if they aren't there or something changes. Obviously neither of those things are happening, but I'm not sure how to change that either - it's not like Tim Miles (a good game coach) has had any success at Nebraska in year one. There's no doubt Tubby can coach and teach defense (I am still impressed by their rotations on defense in most games) and defense will at least keep them competitive so that's a positive. Plus I remember clambering for a firing of Glen Mason for failing to rise above mediocrity and look how that turned out. So I'm not calling for a firing of Tubby, despite the mediocre results in his five years or whatever it is, but I do think it's time to at least start considering some options.
Shaka Smart is the best hire by most accounts and given his prior relationship with Norwood Teague is probably at least somewhat realistic as well, and I would have liked Miles but it's hard to believe he's going to jump from Nebraska so quickly. One guy I'd like the Gophers to take a long and hard look at hiring is Gregg Marshall. He's had two jobs, Winthrop and Wichita, and has had nothing but success with a 320-146 career record and seven conference titles in 14 years. He's only 50, too, so he won't be nodding off on the sidelines or just trying to go through the motions to get another paycheck. He's a good game coach, a solid recruiter, and brings in at least some name recognition. I don't think it's time for Tubby to go, but a first round exit, failure to bring in any of the three Minnesota kids, and another disappointing season? Yeah, then it's time. Hopefully we don't get to that point, but I'm really starting to think Tubby's lack of offensive acumen - and apparently nobody else on staff who can take that responsibility from him - is going to hold the Gophers back, and if it's hurting the most talented Gopher team since 1997, what's it going to do if the talent falls off?
Plus anything to guarantee Saul doesn't coach here is a net positive.
If you made it through this entire thing you deserve a reward, so here you go. You're welcome.
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