Gopher/NCAA Talkers

As much as I hate to interrupt a big string of posts by someone who isn't me, thus giving me needed time off, so much is happening and I haven't had a chance to comment on any of it, so it's time to do a quick run down of everything that is going on.

-  Flip Saunders turns down the Gophers.  Or he didn't and they said no thanks.  I'm not exactly sure of what happened but there are a ton of rumors and all seem to point to some friction between the school and Flip in regards to assistant coaches, specifically Flip wanting his son Ryan on staff.  If that's the big sticking point it makes sense - Flip wants to get his son's career going, while the Gopher brass wants more control over how is on Flip's staff considering he's an NBA guy and running an NCAA program is a completely different animal than an NBA team.  Sure, I get it.  It all comes down to who blinks first, or if anyone blinks at all.  I'm on record as saying I'd love for the Gophers to hire Flip, but I'm also on record as to fully trusting Teague to make a smart hire.  Nothing has changed.  If Teague wants more control over the assistant coaches (or whatever the issue is) I'm on his side here.  We move on.

-  Speaking of moving on, the latest rumor I've heard is that Scott Drew of Baylor may be a candidate for the Gophers.  While Drew is elite in one aspect of being a basketball coach (recruiting) he's also extremely weak in another (game coaching).  Everything else being equal I'd take a great recruiter/poor coach over a poor recruiter/game coach, but Drew does very little for me.  I know I've said that I don't mind if coach's cheat as long as they win games as well, but I like my cheating to be a little more refined and a little more subtle.  I'd rather have a guy cheat and I'm shocked to find out (Clem) than somebody like Drew who is the second guy named by anybody who follows the sport when asked to name the biggest cheaters (after Calipari, who probably doesn't cheat anymore).  He's an NCAA investigation waiting to happen, and probably sooner rather than later.

 -  Gregg Marshall is still my top choice, but the damn Shockers keep winning so we'll have to keep waiting.  Which is ok, really.  Remember Tubby was fired just over a week ago and most coaching vacancies take at least two weeks to fill, so let's all calm down for a few minutes and let Norwood Teague do what he do.

-  As far as the other rumored candidates - Anthony Grant, Buzz Williams, Dwayne Stephens, etc - Teague and the rest of the administration have done a great job keeping a lid on anything factual so far so we can't really even know if these guys are being considered so it's basically pointless to really even discuss them until we know something more concrete.  And honestly I really prefer it this way where everything is just a rumor, so then we don't actually know if they're getting turned down left and right and we're going to end up with Andy Enright's head assistant or something.  I remember when Tubby was hired and I had no idea he was even being considered.  Granted that was an age before Twitter but still, I expect an announcement to come almost out of nowhere and I'm looking forward to it. 

-  Tubby Smith is the new coach at Texas Tech.  It's a good hire for the Red Raiders, and a good fit for Smith at this point in his coaching life cycle.  I have very little doubt that Texas Tech will make their way back to the NCAA Tournament at some point in the next five years.  I also have very little doubt they won't become a perennial Big 12 title contender, but Smith should be perfect in terms of getting them back to respectability - then it becomes a matter of the program's final goals.  This could very easily be the Tubby to Saul hand-off job that I'm pretty sure they were hoping Minnesota would be.  Good luck to everyone involved.

-  Steve Alford to UCLA and Andy Enfield to USC.  I actually think Enfield is a better hire than Alford - well, maybe better fit, not necessarily better hire.  Enfield was going to get a promotion, that was pretty obvious, and going to any Pac-12 school is a better fit for his wide open, high-flying, NBA style than a team in the B12 or B10 would have been.  I have a feeling he would have flamed out in under 3 years in those conferences, but things should work in the Pac-10 and specifically at USC.  I expect the Trojans to be very successful in the next few years.

Alford at UCLA is a big gamble to me, given that it's one of the top jobs in the entire country and he flamed out the last time he was in a major conference.  He's done a great job with New Mexico, but some coaches aren't cut out for the biggest stages.  This is Alford's second chance and if he blows this one he's going to be a mid-major guy for life.  Interested to see if he can restore some luster to the brand.  The good news is he shouldn't have to worry about recruiting too much since UCLA pretty much recruits for itself, success'll be dependent on his game coaching and he's always been just so-so there.

-  I'll be back later this week with some baseball stuff.  I was going to do it tonight but I'm pretty lazy.

Purdue beats Gophers 89-73 - what else is there to say?

I feel like I've said this already multiple times this season, but what else is left to say?  The Gophers allowed a team that is under .500 on the season to shoot 54% for the game, turned them over just 8 times, and let them score 89 points.  You're simply not going to win that way.  That's another bad loss, another road loss, and another black mark against the Gophers in the "finish strong" category.  I don't think it matters what happens in the Big Ten Tournament they're going to be in the NCAA Tournament, but the seed has slipped so far at this point and the team is just playing so horrendously away from Williams that I'm not sure it matters.  That was some of the worst defense I can remember seeing in a long, long time.  Purdue seemingly had a Johnson penetrating at all times (hee hee) and the Gophers couldn't stop any of them.  Just ridiculous.

The one thing that has kept me somewhat engaged as this season spirals off into oblivion is the possibility that this isn't so much a home thing as it's an away thing.  What I mean is, maybe the Gophers aren't materially changed by being at Williams, but that they can't handle an opposing team's gym and crowd and a neutral court will work for them.  Remember they played pretty well at the Battle 4 Atlantis, taking down both Memphis and Stanford and not getting completely killed from the tip by Duke.  That's my big hope right now, an d it's a big reason why I'd rather see them get an 11 seed than a 7 (anything higher than a 7 is out the window at this point) because then they avoid a 1 or 2 seed and the "protection" situation of playing Kansas in Kansas City or something and having it not be technically a home game since KU is in Lawrence but 90% of the crowd is Jayhawk fans.

Where do they go from here?  No clue, man.  It's obvious that the same problems keep resurfacing year after year, and that has to be on the coach.  An athletic team built to run playing a walk-up style (no fast break points vs. Nebraska).  Inability to cover the 3-pointer.  Inability to execute in the half court.  Complete meltdowns against the zone.  Massive swings between home and away.  I'm sorry but that's on Tubby Smith.  I really think the game may have actually passed him by at this point.  He seems unable to either get through to his team, teach his team, adapt to the team he actually has, or some combination.  I doubt the meltdowns against zone defense come about because Tubby doesn't attempt to teach the players how to deal with it, but I also doubt that the team can't grasp the concepts because by all accounts at a minimum both Hollinses are heady, cerebral players.  Something is lost in the translation and that falls on the coach.

 I've been on the fence, mostly because I just wasn't sure what kind of coach the team could get to come in here and how long the rebuilding process would be as well as dismissing Tubby pretty much eliminates any chance you have at getting Vaughn, Jones, or Travis (in my opinion) so I just wasn't sure, but after watching that effort against Purdue I'm officially saying I would prefer they part ways.  Tubby helped bring the program back to respectability, but finishing in 9th place in your 6th year with your best team and only having two NCAA appearances and zero wins says "thanks, but we're all done here" to me.  I'm not screaming from the rooftops that he needs to go - at least not yet - but I would prefer that they make a move.  If the Gophers end up sticking with him for one more year, and one last chance, in order to try to get one of the Big 3 for 2014 I'll be ok with that, but I'm no longer under any illusions as to what this program can be under Tubby Smith.

The real question is who would you hire?  The first name on most people's list is Shaka Smart, what with all the VCU connections we have in the athletic department now and obviously that's a dream hire, but would he really leave such a program on the rise that just moved to a better conference?  Brad Stevens is another one you'll hear a lot, but I can't imagine why he'd leave Butler considering they're looking like they'll be part of the new Big East next season.  The third name that seems to always come up is Flip Saunders, and as intriguing as that is I don't know that I'm in favor of it.  I realize that sort of thing is working fine so far at Iowa State with Hoiberg, but I think I'd rather have someone with some college coaching/recruiting experience.  I'm not against it, per se, but I'm not as for it as many people seem to be.

For me, it comes down to the following:

1.  Gregg Marshall.  This is the guy I want.  He's built both Winthrop and Wichita State into power programs in their conference (and Winthrop was his first head coaching job which is extra impressive).  He's 50, which is a little older than I'd like but he's only been a head coach for 15 years so the fire in the belly should still be there, and a Big 10 school is a definite step up from Wichita.

2.  Larry Eustachy.  The only retread type I will accept.  After the unceremonious divorce from Iowa State he's resurrected both Southern Miss and Colorado State and turned them into NCAA Tournament programs.  Has been a winner everywhere he's been, and he hasn't exactly been at power house schools.

3.  Jeff Capel/Anthony Grant.  Credit to From the Barn for pointing this out, but both Capel and Grant are former VCU coaches who parlayed their success there into head gigs with bigger outfits, to varying success.  Capel struggled at Oklahoma and is back to being an assistant at Duke.  Grant is at Alabama and is hoping to lead the Crimson Tide to their second straight NCAA Tournament berth, although it's not looking likely.  Both would have to look at the Gopher job as a promotion and step up in prestige, and both are young which is what I'd prefer.  I'd choose Capel over Grant, but it's close.

4.  Chris Mack.  Currently at Xavier, which was his first head job, he's just 43 and has had a lot of success.  The problem with him is he's from Cincinnati, played college ball at Xavier, and has had two different stints as an assistant at Xavier, so he might already be at his dream job.

5.  Someone else.  How's that for specific?  What I mean is there are a ton of qualified coaches out there, and it's not my job to find them all.  I can get on board with anything from somebody who has built a couple of programs already all the way down to a hot shot assistant with zero head coaching experience, as long as someone can explain it to me and sell it.  Luckily, the Gophers might have the right person and the right connections in their corner to do this the right way.  The one thing I know  I don't want is some retread (with one exception) which is basically what they tried with Tubby and it didn't work (well, it kind of worked I guess).  Think young.

Of course this is all just idle speculation because Tubby might not be going anywhere.  I highly doubt they'd can him if the team manages to win an NCAA Tournament game.  Even if they lose their first round Big 10 game and then get killed as a 12 seed in the NCAA Tournament I'd still say it's 50/50 whether they hold on to him for another year or not, likely to hope they snag one of the Big 3 Minnesota recruits and/or reduce the buyout.  Norwood Teague and Mike Ellis know coaches - they were there when both Anthony Grant and Shaka Smart were hired.  If it's time for Tubby to go, I trust they'll know it, and when it comes to replacing him, I trust them there as well.

What is up with Tubby Smith, man?

Over the last couple of years there seems to be a big undercurrent of talk about firing Tubby Smith.  Generally I just dismissed this as mostly lunatic ramblings, given that he had taken over a pretty moribund program and restored it to respectability with back-to-back NCAA Tournament appearances.  Sure, there were plenty of frustrations - the Royce White situation, the myriad of transfers, some in-game things, players not developing, etc. - but you get those from time to time with pretty much any coach.  The team was relevant again and playing better basketball with better players, and frankly after the end of the Monson era pretty much anything would have felt pretty good.  But lately, man.  Lately I just don't know.  And this goes beyond back-to-back missed NCAA Tournaments, it's more of, I don't know, a little bit of everything.  I realize that to an outsider this might seem a little unnecessary given that the Gophers are ranked for the first time in what I assume is forever and seem like a lock to make the tournament this year, but if you're reading this you're probably not an outsider, and I feel like there's a very good chance you're nodding your head right now and not because you're listening to Busta Rhymes.

A college basketball head coach has 3 main jobs.  Ok really just one - to win - but it's broken into three parts:  recruiting, coaching to improve the players you already have, and game planning (both pre-game and in-game).  How would you rate Tubby on these right now?  I'm most interesting in talking game planning, but I'm going to hit the other two as well.

First, recruiting.  You remember his first two classes - blue chippers, name players, going after guys with offers from Kentucky (Sampson), Kansas (Joseph), Florida (Iverson), and Michigan State (White), top 100 guys, top 50 guys, and getting them.  The last few classes, however, he's seemed to be settling more.  Although both Hollinseses and Coleman look like nice finds and are certainly playing well, none of them were all that highly sought after and the best offer any of them had was probably Memphis's to Austin, although that could be mitigated a bit since he's from Tennessee.  This year's class and next year's are made up of four players, none of which make the national rankings list, and for all four you could make an argument for the Gophers being the best program offering them.  There are few other offers between them that could make that argument as well, but the Gophers no longer seem to be getting, or even offering, the players that are nationally well thought of.

Now, I will say this.  Seeing how the Hollins twins and Coleman have been working out keeps me in Tubby's corner here.  It could be that Tubby needed to go after bigger names and more well known players early in his tenure to establish a recruiting base and bring the team back to relevancy, and now can be more picky and choosy with the "type" of players he wants even if they aren't on the national map.  That strategy can work (see: Wisconsin) and this year's team is a good example of it.  Add in that the two 2013 recruits already signed (Alvin Ellis and Alex Foster) are guys Tubby's been after for a long time and I'm inclined to give him the benefit of the doubt for now.  The real test is in 2014 with three Minnesota kids in Rivals Top 41.  Tubby needs to get at least one of them to wear the maroon and gold.  I would be ecstatic with two, but there has got to be at least one.  The jury is still out on him here.

As far as coaching players up, that's another thing that has seemed to improve and helps strengthen any pro-Tubby argument that he needed the right kind of players.  Sampson was obviously a bust and I don't think Devoe Joseph was markedly better the day he bolted for Oregon than when he arrived on campus.  Colton Iverson and Justin Cobbs have both absolutely thrived after leaving Minnesota, and all four of those players' successes or lack there of are on Tubby's inability to get them to improve.  Once again, the Hollinses and Coleman are his saving grace, because Austin has gotten leaps and bounds better and both Andre and Coleman have improved (although Coleman's defense makes baby jesus cry).  Rodney Williams has regressed a bit this year, but there's no doubt that his improvement from sophomore to junior was a large one.  Whether you want to give the majority of the credit for that simply to Mbakwe being out for the year is up to you, but Tubby still had to coach him, put him in the right position, and get him to change his game.  The real test on this one will be next year.  With Mbakwe and Williams gone the front court is going to be Mo Walker and Elliott Elliason, and unless he makes some real progress with those two it could be pretty ugly.  Once again, the jury is out but I'm inclined to rule in Tubby's favor and call it "getting the right kind of players for Tubby."

Now, I wrote those first two paragraphs (3, actually) to illustrate that I'm in no way a rabid Tubby basher.  I'm in his corner in a lot of ways, and other than a tweet or a throwaway comment in a post I've rarely said anything negative about him.  That being said, what in the holy hell does this guy do at practice?  We saw the problem again against Iowa.  Any time the Hawkeyes would do their 3/4 court trap the Gopher guards would completely panic, even to the point where on one possession Rodney Williams still had the ball at the 3-point line in the back court with 7 seconds gone from the shot clock before the crowd helped him realize what was going on and he tried to fly over the timeline and do something with the ball and, naturally, oops turnover.  Things were just as bad when Iowa played zone in the half court, with the guards appearing to play a four corners stall ball style despite the fact that they were losing with under 3 minutes to play.

I mean, it's not like Iowa doesn't ever play zone and they pretty much break out the trap every game, so there's no way these guys should be so perplexed as to what to do, especially since by all accounts and all visual evidence both Hollins kids are pretty cerebral players.  If this was an isolated incident it would be one thing, but look at how the Gophers weren't only unable to score against Northwestern's 1-3-1 but immediately turned into a bunch of JV players, and this is the same zone Northwestern uses every single game.  They couldn't find a way to score or get good shots against Wisconsin when the Badgers play the same defensive scheme every single year, and they went through about a twelve minute period against Michigan State where they couldn't inbound the ball under their own basket.  There's just too much here, and this is just this season when we could find a whole bunch more examples if we looked back a few seasons.

Look I'm not some sort of basketball genius (actually I am, but for the sake of this post let's pretend I'm not) but while scoring and getting good shots against a good team playing a zone can be difficult (thus Syracuse's success), the basics of beating a zone don't change no matter the level of play and anyone should be able to grasp them.  It's pretty simple, start your offense where the defense isn't.  If they're playing 1-3-1, you should arrange your players in a 2-1-2.  If they're in a 2-3, go with a 3-2 (with one guy at the high post, one at the low).  You put your players in the natural gaps in the zone and then use quick passes and ball movement (and ball fakes where appropriate) to keep the defense moving and shifting which will inevitably create gaps that can be exploited with cuts, dribble penetration, and passes.  Honestly a good offense against a decent zone should be able to create shots in most cases without even running a single pattern or setting a single pick or screen.  It's quite simple.

So why, WHY, can't Tubby's teams seem to grasp this?  The key to beating a zone (after you actually, you know, line up properly) is the guy in the middle - whoever is at the free throw line/high post.  Get that guy the ball and the zone needs to dramatically shift to cover him, leaving open shooters and cutters.  That is the most important player in beating a zone, and both Mbakwe and Williams are athletic enough and good enough passers to handle it, and if the defense sags or doesn't react quickly enough I trust them both to either drive or hit the 15-foot jumper as the situation dictates.  Honestly the way the Gophers are constructed they should absolutely destroy zone defenses beyond more than getting a ton of offensive rebounds (which, admittedly, the do very well).  So why don't they?  BECAUSE THERE IS NEVER ANYBODY AT THE GOD DAMN HIGH POST.  The key guy to beating a zone (or a press but just shift everyone into the backcourt and make the free throw line the half court line) and somehow nobody is ever there?

Seriously, watch the Gophers the next time somebody drops into a zone against them (and I'm willing to bet Izzo will give it a shot even though they're mostly a man team) and you'll see how few possessions actually have somebody in that space and, worse, how few actually result in touches for whoever it is.  If you're moving the ball and getting open shots and they just aren't falling that's one thing, but not even running a proper offense against the defense being played against you?  There's no way to place the blame for that on anyone but the coach, and I'm talking 97% of the blame, not just 51%.  Inexcusable.  Tubby must spend 90% of practice on defense, and at least that part works, but not being prepared and not being able to adjust mid-game is just baffling.  Yeah, he drew up a couple of good plays to get Coleman a lay-up late and the big Hollins three-pointer against Iowa, but let's not do whatever the opposite of throw the baby out with the bathwater here - Tubby has been a terrible game coach since he got here.

I'm still not in the "fire tubby" camp simply because I'm not sure where to go from here.  Unless you're bringing in an elite level of talent like Kentucky and Calipari (who makes Tubby look like Bill Self) you can't be a great team without someone on the sidelines who can put the players in the best position to win and then adjust if they aren't there or something changes.  Obviously neither of those things are happening, but I'm not sure how to change that either - it's not like Tim Miles (a good game coach) has had any success at Nebraska in year one.  There's no doubt Tubby can coach and teach defense (I am still impressed by their rotations on defense in most games) and defense will at least keep them competitive so that's a positive.  Plus I remember clambering for a firing of Glen Mason for failing to rise above mediocrity and look how that turned out.  So I'm not calling for a firing of Tubby, despite the mediocre results in his five years or whatever it is, but I do think it's time to at least start considering some options.

Shaka Smart is the best hire by most accounts and given his prior relationship with Norwood Teague is probably at least somewhat realistic as well, and I would have liked Miles but it's hard to believe he's going to jump from Nebraska so quickly.  One guy I'd like the Gophers to take a long and hard look at hiring is Gregg Marshall.  He's had two jobs, Winthrop and Wichita, and has had nothing but success with a 320-146 career record and seven conference titles in 14 years.  He's only 50, too, so he won't be nodding off on the sidelines or just trying to go through the motions to get another paycheck.  He's a good game coach, a solid recruiter, and brings in at least some name recognition.  I don't think it's time for Tubby to go, but a first round exit, failure to bring in any of the three Minnesota kids, and another disappointing season?  Yeah, then it's time.  Hopefully we don't get to that point, but I'm really starting to think Tubby's lack of offensive acumen - and apparently nobody else on staff who can take that responsibility from him - is going to hold the Gophers back, and if it's hurting the most talented Gopher team since 1997, what's it going to do if the talent falls off?

Plus anything to guarantee Saul doesn't coach here is a net positive.

If you made it through this entire thing you deserve a reward, so here you go.  You're welcome.