Showing posts with label Ray Rice. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Ray Rice. Show all posts

Tuesday, November 11, 2014

Big 10 Chucker Power Ranking Preview

Hi friends.  It's time we do a little something new, and a little something fun here at DWG, and that's celebrate my love of chuckers.  Who doesn't love the guy who comes in the game for 11 minutes and gets up 15 shots, making 3?  Who doesn't love the guard who thinks he has to do everything for his team and ends up with 7 assists and 90 turnovers on the season?  It's annoying when you're playing with that guy at the park or the Y, it's maddening when he's on your team, but when it's an opposing player?  Good freaking times, as anyone who remembers watching Morgan State's Reggie Holmes will remember.

To quickly recap, Holmes played four years at shooting guard for Morgan State and lived up to the position's name.  He averaged 15.4 points per game in his career, including 21.4 his senior season.  He did this while shooting a dismal 38% from the floor over those four years, which yes, means he shot the ball a shit load - 15.8 times per game his senior year and 12.1 over his career, good enough to finish 3rd All-Time in career MEAC shot attempts after finishing top 3 in each of his final three years.  He topped it off by refusing to pass, putting up just 76 career assists in four seasons for a whopping 0.6 per game average.  This versus 156 turnovers which is actually a really good number for someone who handled the ball that much but it looks silly compared to his assist number.  Reggie Holmes might have been the most perfect chucker ever.  We're looking for the next one.

This season I'll be doing a ranking each week of the top chuckers.  I haven't decided if it'll be a week-to-week thing or a running season long ranking, but likely it will be a blend of both.  I also was trying to come up with some kind of chucker formula, but I realized it's the kind of thing you can't really define, you just know it when you see it - like a penguin.  Anyway, there are four things that go into making a really good chucker, in descending order of importance:

1.  Takes a ton of shots.  A ton.  It doesn't matter if the guy plays 35 minutes or 10, it's all about how many times you can jack that pill towards the goal.

2.  Is a terrible shooter.  Someone who shoots a ton but makes a respectable amount is just a good player.  It's gotta be someone who just clangs clangs clangs bricks all over the place who makes you say geez we should gather up all these bricks and build a shelter for the homeless so your mother has a place to stay tonight.  Seriously, I want your mother and sister out of my house.

3.  Hates passing.  Yogi Ferrell shoots the ball like a chucker, but he ruins the whole thing by passing a lot (and actually he's a little too accurate throwing the ball in the direction of the hoop to really qualify).  You need a guy who feels a little bit physically ill when he gives up the ball.  If you see a guy refuse to pass out of a double team in a situation where the other team is trying to foul because he wants those free throws and those precious, precious points you may be looking at a primo chucker.

4.  Turns the ball over a lot.  This is the least important of the four, but it still counts.  A lot of chuckers don't turn the ball over much because they basically shoot it before they catch it, and most chuckers love that ball more than their mother so they're loathe to give it up to an opponent (or a teammate).  But there are others who rack up the TOs by trying to dribble through people or make fancy stupid passes.  Those guys are sweet.

It's rare to find someone who hits all four but we're going to try.

So in this preview I'm going to cover your potential top chuckers in the Big Ten.  Although the power rankings will cover all of college basketball I'm just going to do our favorite conference here because seriously there are a lot of teams in D-I.

I looked all the players last year and dug out those who took more than 20% of their team's shots when they were on the floor (so more than their share) and who put up an effective field goal percentage of less than 50% (metric to smooth in 3-pointers since 50% from 2 and 33% from 3 are equivalent).  I didn't use true shooting percentage since it folds in free throws and I don't want to miss out on someone good/bad who shoots 95% from the line or something.  Plus most chuckers are good free throwers because they want all the points, and those are good ways to get easy points.

So without further ado, here are my top candidates for B10 Chucker of the Year Award.

1.  TRE DEMPS, Northwestern (26.3% shots, 45.7 eFG%).  Nearly a perfect chucker, with that great chucker mentality that he can make every shot, no shot is a bad shot, and that his range is infinity (note: it's actually less than that).  With Drew Crawford gone there'll be even more shots available for him to poach.  If he can push his shot rate to 30% and continue to convert at the same levels the award is his for the taking.  The prohibitive favorite to win.

BEST GAME LY:  5pts on 1-10 shooting (0-5 from 3) with 2 assists and 2 turnovers vs. Penn State.

2.  JOHN JOHNSON, Penn State (22.6% shots, 45.6% eFG%).  He transferred into Penn State last year from Pitt with a reputation as a shooter, and though he shot plenty when he was on the court he didn't shoot well, hitting just 32% from three and 44% from two.  With Tim Frazier gone he should see a few more minutes, and though he shot more twos than threes last year (69 vs. 66) hopefully he'll take on more of the perimeter shooting burden and throw up a bunch of bricks.

BEST GAME LY:  3pts on 1-8 shooting with 2 assists and 2 turnovers vs. Siena.

3.  MARC LOVING, Ohio State (23.2% shots, 43.2% eFG%).  He's a bit under the radar since he played just 11 minutes per game last year, but those chucker statistics are sweet.  With LaQuinton Ross (31% of shots), Lenzelle Smith (23%), and Aaron Craft (15%) gone there are a whole lot of shots available this season.  The Buckeyes have a lot of other talent, both returning and new, so there's no guarantee he morphs into a chucker supreme, but here's hoping he decides he needs to be THE MAN and does just that.

BEST GAME LY:  No one game stands out since his minutes were so limited, but he did go on an 0-12 three pointer streak mid-conference spanning 14 games.

4.  BRYSON SCOTT, Purdue (23.1% shots, 37.4% eFG%).  Purdue is an interesting case seeing as they had six players last year who fit the chucker criteria (which explains why they were so terrible).  The good news is three of those six are now gone, so somebody is going to be a fixture in the chucker rankings and the best bet is Scott and his horrendous 36% 2-point field goal percentage.  He didn't shoot many threes last year (just 13) and hit a respectable 39%, so here's hoping he decides to shoot more and does it more poorly.  That eFG% is a thing of beauty, worst among all the qualified chuckers last season.

BEST GAME LY:  13pts on 4-13 shooting with 3 assists and 5 turnovers vs. Washington State

5.  RAYVONTE RICE, Illinois (28.2% shots, 48.1% eFG%).  I don't love having him on here since he does so much for that team, but his chucker numbers are fantastic, not to mention a pathetically low assist rate for a guard who has the ball in his hands so much (11%, 1.5 per game).  With all the talent the Illini have already and the 3 new key pieces there might be too many mouths to feed for a true chucker to emerge, but I have faith that his chuckerish instincts will prevail.  It's really too bad Tracy Abrams blew out his knee, because he had even better numbers (24% shots, 38% eFG%).  That's one to stash away for your chucker keeper league.

BEST GAME LY:  19pts on 7-21 (1-5 on threes) shooting with 1 turnover vs. Wisconsin, or 8pts on 2-11 (1-4 on threes) shooting with 2 assists and 2 turnovers vs. Northwestern, or 10 points on 3-13 (1-5 threes) shooting with 1 assist and 2 turnovers vs. Nebraska.

6.  PETER JOK, Iowa (25.1% shots, 48.4% eFG%).  Another off the bench chucker, but this one doesn't have as clear a path to more playing time since Iowa's guards are all back so he'll have to do his damage in a limited time - which he can.  Twice last season he had more field goal attempts than minutes played in a game, which is both terrifying and admirable.

BEST GAME LY:  3pts on 1-6 shooting (1-4 from 3) in 5 minutes (5 minutes!) vs. Villanova.

7.  DRE HOLLINS, Minnesota (24.7% shots, 47.0% eFG%).  Don't pretend like this can't happen, I mean look at those chucker stats - they're legit.  Last year Hollins got a bit too comfy shooting jumpers instead of trying to get to the rim, and though it's easy to believe it was mostly injury related, what if it wasn't?  What if he decides to let Mathieu and Mason do the driving and he just wants to fire away from the outisde?  He finished out the year (last 6 games) 14-63, which is 22%, and put up some chuckeriffic games in that stretch.  I hope he falls off this list quickly.

BEST GAME LY:  8pts on 2-14 shooting (2-7 from 3) with no assists and 2 turnovers vs. Wisconsin

8.  TRAVIS TRICE (18.4% shots, 54.8% eFG%) or DENZEL VALENTINE (16.9% shots, 48.9% eFG%), Michigan State.  Keith Appling, Adreian Payne, and Gary Harris are all gone which means someone has to step up offensively and both the freshmen and most of the returnees are pretty meh.  There are three clear guys who need to have big years and that's Trice, Valentine, and Branden Dawson.  Dawson is too efficient to end up on this list so it's either going to be Trice or Valentine.  Neither qualified last year under my completely arbitrary criteria, but the team dynamic is so different I have faith one of these two is going to become a trainwreck.  Smart money is on Valentine since he just seems more likely to become overconfident, but it's pretty close to 50/50.  OMG what if it's both?  That would be awesome, as Chris Farley once said.

BEST GAMES LY:  Trice - not a high volume shooter, but 0pts on 0-5 shooting (0-3 from 3) with 2 assists and 3 turnovers in just 16 minutes vs. Georgetown shows some potential.  Valentine - also not high volume last year, but I do like his 3pts on 1-6 shooting (1-5 from 3) with 4 assists and 5 turnovers vs. Illinois game.

9.  STANFORD ROBINSON, Indiana (22.6% shots, 45.8 eFG%).  Yogi Ferrell is gonna shoot a ton because Yogi be Yogi and Crean be Crean and there's a bunch of other talent on the perimeter coming in so he could be squeezed for minutes, but Robinson has some real potential, especially if he shoots more threes (3-16 last year).  He shoots more twos than I'd like (149 vs. 16) and is a little too efficient (48%), hence the low rating, but getting suspended for failing a drug test is a good start to the year.  I don't know that drugs and chucking correlate, but it seems like it's probably not a bad sign.

BEST GAME LY:  0pts on 0-7 shooting with 2 assists and 3 turnovers vs. Purdue.  No one should have had their worst game (best game) vs. Purdue last year.

10.  TERRAN PETTAWAY, Nebraska (32% shots, 48.2% eFG%).  Seems pretty silly to have him here given he's a top candidate for player of the year in the conference, but it's hard to ignore that shot % number of 32%, which is the kind of number usually reserved for small conference stars.  The only major conference guys with a higher shot % last year were Marshall Henderson (maybe the best chucker in history) and Jabari Parker (just dominated the ball, but efficiently).  Nebraska's rotation should be relatively unchanged this season, but the guys lost did shoot a ton so it's possible Pettaway takes his shot percentage number into another stratosphere.  Considering most of his value comes from his scoring if he has a bad shooting year man it could be epic.

BEST GAME LY:  13pts on 5-18 shooting (1-6 from 3) with 3 assists and 3 turnovers vs. Illinois.  


This is gonna be great.

Saturday, November 1, 2014

Big Ten Basketball Preview: #5 Illinois Fighting Illini

If you collect athletes, as John Groce has been doing since he got the Illinois job, at some point simply through their sheer numbers they'll put it altogether and have a pretty good season.  Groce now has a whole bunch of top flight athletes, a lead dog in Rayvonte Rice who can be the big man on campus, and caught a big break with Tracy Abrams going down for the year with a knee injury because he is terrible.  Rice is a better point guard, as are two transfer combo guards coming in from Oregon State and Seton Hall.  Abrams has been the point guard for four years simply because Groce has continued on with Bruce Weber's tradition of refusing to ever sign a good, true point guard.  With Abrams out the Illinois should end up with a more free flowing, faster offense that fits their athletic roster to a T (tee?).

Here's who is on the Illini's roster and their rank by 247sports when they were incoming freshmen:  senior center Nganna Egwu #81, sophomores Kendrick Nunn #56, Malcolm Hill #103, Austin Colbert #98, Maverick Morgan #180, and Jaylon Tate #130, and freshmen Leron Black #43.  Add in guys who transferred in with Rayvonte Rice, who led Illinois in scoring last season at 15.9 per game and also led in rebounding despite being just 6-4, Aaron Cosby (Seton Hall guy, averaged 13 points and 3 assists), and Ahmad Starks (Oregon State, averaged 10 and 2.3).  I mean really, that's a shitload of talent.  If Weber was here I'd say big whoop he's going to screw it all up anyway, but with Groce they should be ok and get to the NCAA Tournament, assuming they end up figuring out the PG situation.

And they should, because it should be pretty simple.  Rice, Cosby, and Starks can all handle the ball, as can Tate.  Rice is better off the ball, I think, and the transfers give him a chance to do just that the majority of the time.  The Wing spot is in good shape as well, as any of those guys can play the #2 and add in Hill and Nunn and you've got plenty of options on the perimeter.  Illinois does have a history of standing around and launching way too many horrible three-pointers and they could fall into that trap again - no returnee cracked 39% last season.  The good news is Starks and Cosby both hit 40% last season, so there's another need those two transfers help fill.  Pretty much perfect guys to transfer in, really.

Front court is pretty good shape as well, even if Egwu is the only returnee who averaged more than 7.1 minutes per game last season (7pts/6rebs/2blks in 30 mpg).  Maverick Morgan is a monster at 6-10, 250 lbs.  He didn't do much last year and he strikes me as a defense and rebounding type, but that's all this team will need from him.  Another highly rated recruit who hasn't gotten much run is Austin Colbert, and he'll get his shot this year, but the real jewel here (other than Egwu who I seem to be glossing over but who is really quite a good player) is freshman Leron Black, ESPN's #44 recruit in the country.  He's another incredible athlete Illinois can add to their surplus, but he's already got a polished offensive game with a decent mid-range jumper.  He's my pick for freshman of the year if that's an award they give.

John Groce is a good coach, and there was little doubt he'd get the Illini turned around especially with a built in recruiting base of Chicago.  He's been crushing the Chicago market and has built up two great classes in a row with a third on the way, and leveraged that with a lucrative transfer market where he's had a lot of success already.  Illinois, however, has always seemed to have a talented and athletic squad, but it seems it's always been an issue getting them to really meld together and have sustained success, at least since the Deron Williams/Dee Brown team.  Good chance Groce is the guy to do it, which means the Illini might be on the verge of becoming a Big Ten power.  Yay.


OTHER PREVIEWS
#6 MICHIGAN
#7 MICHIGAN STATE
#8 IOWA HAWKEYES
#9 MARYLAND TERRAPINS
#10 INDIANA HOOSIERS
#11 PENN STATE NITTANY LIONS
#12 NORTHWESTERN WILDCATS
#13 PURDUE BOILERMAKERS
#14 RUTGERS SCARLET KNIGHTS

Monday, July 25, 2011

Six Very Important Things from Last Night

 I was going to do a typical week in review post last night, but as I sat and stared at my computer screen I realized I got nothin'.  The Twins have sucked the life out of me and I just couldn't bring myself to type anything.  I started and deleted at least three times, and then was going to watch a shark movie and just didn't have the energy.  Thanks Twins!

They've killed my brain so much I can't even cook right anymore.  For last night's meal I looked around at what we had in the fridge and pantry and decided to make a Cuban chili.  I screwed it up every way imaginable.  Actually the first step, browning the ground beef with onions, red peppers, and garlic, went well, but from there it was right down hill.  I used way too much liquid in the base (beef broth + mexican beer) and made it way watery.  Then, after the first 45 minutes or so in the crock pot it seemed bland and rather than slowly adding spices to give it the flavor it needs I just threw a bunch of stuff in all at once and it ended up way too spicy.  Luckily I have Mrs. W around, who just scooped 90% of the broth out to make it more chili-y and also cut back on the spice.  I added some garlic salt and onion powder and WA-LA it ended up pretty good.  But it turns out I'm not quite the brilliant chef I like to think I am.  Well usually I am but not this time.  Except for when I helped fix it.  Anyway the Twins are stupid.
 


1. I quit watching after the third inning because it was 9-0.  It's now 18-1 in the fifth.  Eighteen.  To.  Fucking.  One.  Feels like the perfect end to a perfect season  This team sucks, Nick Blackburn throws the ball too easy to hit to even be a batting practice pitcher, and I'm never writing about the Twins again.  EVER.  Unless they start trading dudes, then I'll write about the sweet sweet prospects they pick up.  God I hate this so much.  This is just like that time I cut my own finger off.  [EDIT:  Final was 20-6.  L.  O.  L.]

2.  It looks like we'll have an NFL this year after all.  Football players and owners apparently realized that they all stand to make billions of dollars as long as there is a season and came to an agreement to go ahead and play some american football this year.  This sort of bums me out.

Not that I don't like football, because I really do, but because there is just so much about the NFL season that bugs me.  Particularly the fans.  And can you imagine that group of fans - the kind of guys who watch every minute of every preseason game, are convinced they're smarter than every coach, bitch and complain the one week there's no Sunday night football because of the World Series, and who ignore their family for 12 hours every Sunday so they can watch the six different TVs they have the overpriced Sunday Ticket hooked up to in a room they inevitably call their "man cave" (and seriously, can we stop putting man in front of words to make up new words?  It's not a man-cave, it's a den.  It's not a mancation, it's a vacation.  It's not man-scaping, it's shaving.  And so on).

You know the kind of guy I'm talking about.  And you can you imagine this guy without football?  It would be hilarious.  I imagine these guys would just start wandering around their neighborhood muttering to themselves and yelling at inanimate objects about getting into a cover 2 and rolling the safety over or start staging fake games in their yard using lawn gnomes.  But now that dream is over, just like the dream of getting to watch scab players this year.  Oh what could have been.  Where have you gone, Brian Cupito?

3.  Plenty of other things flying around the NFL rumor mill as well, including Terrell Pryor and Brett Favre rumors.   The Favre rumor is that he may sign with the Eagles to be insurance behind Michael Vick, which supposedly makes sense because he's had a long-time relationship with Andy Reid.  I would guess we can just ignore this because I really don't see him coming back after that pounding he took last year and I really don't see him volunteering for back-up duty.  Then again, since he has a need for attention that would rival any 3-year old you know we're not going to hear a definitive answer from him, so this is going to drag out.  Again.  And dominate the news to the point where you want to stab your ears out with a spoon.  Again.  Pete Rose II just needs to die or something so he'll actually go away.

As far as Pryor, the big cheating cheater, it turns out that due to a bunch of legal mumbo jumbo that I neither understand nor have actually read, he might not get to enter the NFL supplemental draft this year.  In that case I'd assume his options would be to play in the Arena League, CFL, XFL (if it still exists), or sling crack rock.  Which is good for him because then maybe he can make some money because once he hits the NFL he's going to absolutely suck.  Spergon Wynn style.  Seriously, the guy could hit the broad side of Sarah Rue (before she sadly got all skinny) with a pass if she was standing still and he's supposed to be an NFL QB?  Sure he can run, but that's all he can do.  All you need to know is that he is Ohio State's all-time leading rusher as a QB and it's well known that there has never been an all-time leading rushing QB from a school who has succeeded in the NFL.  Sorry Terrelle, you're doomed.  And you suck and are a cheater and a bad person. 

4.  This T-Wolves coaching search is rather perplexing.  I can't quite figure out what they're going for.  The latest is that they interviewed Larry Brown, who is 71 years old and I can't possibly figure out what the upside is, other than possible insurance money from when he dies (whether of a heart attack or Michael Beasley snapping and beating him with a dreadlock makes no difference).  The other guys, warts and all, at least have something that I get.  Don Nelson is super old but likes to play uptempo which is what Kahn wants and plays to Ricky Rubio's strength.  Bernie Bickerstaff is a total retread but, in theory, would have brought JB into play as the coach of the future (too late for this now).  Terry Porter would be an inexperienced, but young (for a coach) up and comer.  Rick Adelman is just a good coach.  I've never head of Mike Woodson.

But Larry Brown doesn't make sense for the Wolves and the job doesn't make sense for him either.  At 71, he'll be 75 by the time this is a possible playoff team, and Brown is notoriously difficult on young players and point guards.  Seeing as how the Wolves are exclusively young players and have basically hitched the hopes of the entire franchise on a rookie point guard this match makes me nervous.  Yeah, he's famous for turning losers into 8 seeds, but he's also a thousand years old and will probably end up shooting Beasley and/or Kahn by the all-star break.  But I guess they wouldn't be the Wolves if they did something that made sense.

5.  Ray Rice is going to destroy you.  Since NFL teams can do shit now the Ravens released a bunch of fairly notable players:  Derrick Mason, Todd Heap, and Willis McGahee.  Mason is 100 and Heap has sucked for two years but the McGahee release is important because it means whoever the coach of the Ravens is won't have to keep him happy by giving him the goalline carries.  The Bear once said Rice was overrated because he'd never be "a monster" but now McGahee is gone, he runs for a billion yards and catches enough balls to be the next generation of Thurman Thomas, and now he's going to get the goal line carries.  Can Ray Rice be a monster?  We're about to find out.  And I think this is going to go down just like he's Kobe Bryant and the league is that poor girl from that hotel.


6.  I was hoping to ignore the Twins for the rest of this post, but then there's this:  The Nationals are after Denard Span and the Twins are listening.  Frankly, this makes no sense.  I agree the Twins should start looking to move some dudes because they suck and this season is dead, and I also think it makes sense to move an outfielder/DH because that's what they have an abundance of.  But not Span.

First, he's under a reasonable contract.  He's signed through 2014 with a team option for '15 at a good cost ($3m next year, $4.75m the next, $6.5m in '14, $9m on the option) so you don't need to move him soon.  Unlike Kubel (free-agent to be) and Cuddyer (free-agent to be), or Jim Thome (1 more year but clearly not part of rebuilding).

Second, his skill set is something the Twins don't have anywhere else:  an actual lead-off hitter.  I love Ben Revere, I really do, but unless he starts walking more and finds a way to hit the ball farther than the average girl in a co-ed softball league once in a while (and yes that's AND, not OR) he's a nine hitter with a little excitement due to his speed.  I mean really, Kubel, Cuddy, and Delmon are such similar players if you move one you're not fundamentally changing your team's make-up, but Span is the only real lead-off hitter, maybe in the system.  If you still had Gomez and he was progressing (which, by the way, he still isn't) then trading Span is palatable, even though it still doesn't make sense.

Lastly, the Nationals are not a playoff team.  They aren't making trades for a playoff push, they're making trades to try to get better for the long run.  So why would a non-playoff team who needs to build for the future trade a guy to a different non-playoff team who needs to build for the future?  Because the Twins want Ian freaking Desmond to be their future shortstop?  The guy is absolutely terrible. Might as well have just kept Jason Bartlett for christ's sake.

Look, I get the Ramos trade for Capps.  It was stupid and I said so at the time, but I at least understand what they were doing, however misguided.  But trading Span, unless you are getting back Stephen Strasburg or Bryce Harper or Wilson Ramos, doesn't make sense financially, logically, chemistry-y, physically, lineup-y, racially, or sexually.  Leave it to the Twins and that rapey dickmitten Bill Smith.  Have fun watching Ian Desmond flail about like the next Nick Punto for the next four years.

Fuck this.  I'm moving.